Current HIV/AIDS Facts and Figures

Introduction• One of the HFC’s strategic action points is to

conduct an in-depth market analysis in order to: • Full understand the market and• Identify any needs for a redefined product offering

• A clear understanding of the current facts and figures regarding the number of individuals infected by HIV is of paramount importance to understanding the HIV market.

…continued

• The purpose: • to provide the facts and figures mentioned in the

action point; and• To provide a list of various organisations who

undertake any kind of HIV prevention/treatment in South Africa and Southern Africa

• Countries:• Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Swaziland,

Zambia, Mozambique, Tanzania and Malawi.

HIV/AIDS FACTS and FIGURES• Global estimates

– More than 25 million people have died of AIDS since 1981.– Africa has over 14 million AIDS orphans.– At the end of 2008, women accounted for 50% of all adults living with HIV

worldwide– In developing and transitional countries, 9.5 million people are in immediate

need of life-saving AIDS drugs; of these, only 4 million (42%) are receiving the drugs.

– The number of people living with HIV has risen from around 8 million in 1990 to 33 million today, and is still growing. Around 67% of people living with HIV are in sub-Saharan Africa.

– During 2008 more than two and a half million adults and children became infected with HIV (Human Immunodeficiency Virus), the virus that causes AIDS. By the end of the year, an estimated 33.4 million people worldwide were living with HIV/AIDS. The year also saw two million deaths from AIDS, despite recent improvements in access to antiretroviral treatment.

Figure 1: Global Estimates(2008)

Estimate Range

People living with HIV/AIDS in 2008 33.4 million 31.1-35.8 million

Adults living with HIV/AIDS in 2008 31.3 million 29.2-33.7 million

Women living with HIV/AIDS in 2008 15.7 million 14.2-17.2 million

Children living with HIV/AIDS in 2008 2.1 million 1.2-2.9 million

People newly infected with HIV in 2008 2.7 million 2.4-3.0 million

Children newly infected with HIV in 2008 0.43 million 0.24-0.61 million

AIDS deaths in 2008 2.0 million 1.7-2.4 million

Child AIDS deaths in 2008 0.28 million 0.15-0.41 million

Figure 2: Regional statistics (2008)

Region

Adults & children

living with HIV/AIDS

Adults & children

newly infected

Adult prevalence

*

Deaths of adults & children

Sub-Saharan Africa 22.4 million 1.9 million 5.2% 1.4 million

South and South-East Asia 3.8 million 280,000 0.3% 270,000

Latin America 2.0 million 170,000 0.6% 77,000

Eastern Europe & Central Asia 1.5 million 110,000 0.7% 87,000

North America 1.4 million 55,000 0.4% 25,000

East Asia 850,000 75,000 <0.1% 59,000

Western & Central Europe 850,000 30,000 0.3% 13,000

North Africa & Middle East 310,000 35,0000 02% 20,000

Caribbean 240,000 20,000 1.0% 12,000

Oceania 59,000 3900 0.3% 2,000

Global Total 33.4 million 2.7 million 0.8% 2.0 million

South Africa• The statistics displayed below estimate how many people

are a living with HIV in South Africa and were drawn from:• The report of the Department of Health: "National HIV and Syphilis

Sero-prevalence Survey in South Africa 2007", published in 2008 – This annual study looks at data from antenatal clinics and uses it to

estimate HIV prevalence amongst pregnant women. • The report of the "South African National HIV Prevalence, HIV

Incidence, Behaviour and Communication Survey, 2008". – In this survey, a sample of people were chosen to represent the general

population. Of those who were eligible, 64% agreed to give a blood sample to be anonymously tested for HIV. The report contains estimates of HIV prevalence in various groups of people, derived from this general population sample.

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• Actuarial Society of South Africa’s 2003 Model

– ASSA 2003 makes projections about HIV/AIDS infection, mortality and a range of other indicators

– Note: In a telephonic conversation with the researcher, Mr. Wim Els: Director of Operations ASSA, confirmed the accuracy and reliability of the figures projected in the 2003 model. He affirmed that the figures are still relevant today, despite that the model was designed in 2003. Mr. Els also alluded to the fact that the ASSA is in the last stages of designing a new model, which will be released in: “a few weeks time”.

The South African Department of Health Study, 2007• The Study is based on a sample of 33,488 women

attending 1,415 antenatal clinics across all nine provinces.

• It estimates that 28% of pregnant women were living with HIV in 2007.

• Highest Prevalence rates recorded in: KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga and Free State.

• Lowest rates recorded in: The Northern Cape and Western Cape

Figure 3: Estimated HIV prevalence among antenatal clinic attendees, by province

Province 2001 % 2002 % 2003 % 2004 % 2005 % 2006 % 2007 %

KwaZulu-Natal 33.5 36.5 37.5 40.7 39.1 39.1 37.4

Free State 30.1 28.8 30.1 29.5 30.3 31.1 33.5

Mpumalanga 29.2 28.6 32.6 30.8 34.8 32.1 32.0

Gauteng 29.8 31.6 29.6 33.1 32.4 30.8 30.3

North West 25.2 26.2 29.9 26.7 31.8 29.0 29.0

Eastern Cape 21.7 23.6 27.1 28.0 29.5 28.6 26.0

Limpopo 14.5 15.6 17.5 19.3 21.5 20.6 18.5

Northern Cape 15.9 15.1 16.7 17.6 18.5 15.6 16.1

Western Cape 8.6 12.4 13.1 15.4 15.7 15.1 12.6

National 24.8 26.5 27.9 29.5 30.2 29.1 28.0

Figure 4: Estimated HIV prevalence among antenatal clinic attendees, by age

AgeGroup(years)

2001 % 2002 % 2003 % 2004 % 2005 % 2006 % 2007 %

<20 15.4 14.8 15.8 16.1 15.9 13.7 12.9

20-24 28.4 29.1 30.3 30.8 30.6 28.0 28.1

25-29 31.4 34.5 35.4 38.5 39.5 38.7 37.9

30-34 25.6 29.5 30.9 34.4 36.4 37.0 40.2

35-39 19.3 19.8 23.4 24.5 28.0 29.6 33.2

40+ 9.8 17.2 15.8 17.5 19.8 21.3 21.5

The South African National HIV Survey, 2008

• 15,000 households across South Africa visited• 13,440 (90%) took part in the survey • 23,369 people within these households were

eligible to take part • 20,826 (89%) completed an interview and 15,851

(64%) agreed to take an HIV test. • Based on this survey, the researchers estimate

that 10.9% of all South Africans over 2 years old were living with HIV in 2008

Figure 5: Estimated HIV prevalence (%) among South Africans aged 2 years and older, by age, 2002-2008

Age 2002 2005 2008

Children (2-14 years) 5.6 3.3 2.5

Youth (15-24 years) 9.3 10.3 8.7

Adults (25 and older) 15.5 15.6 16.8

15-49 year olds 15.6 16.92 16.9

Total (2 and older) 11.4 10.8 10.9

Figure 6:Estimated HIV prevalence among South Africans, by age and sex, 2008

Age Male prevalence % Female prevalence %

2-14 3.0 2.0

15-19 2.5 6.7

20-24 5.1 21.1

25-29 15.7 32.7

30-34 25.8 29.1

35-39 18.5 24.8

40-44 19.2 16.3

45-49 6.4 14.1

50-54 10.4 10.2

55-59 6.2 7.7

60+ 3.5 1.8

Total 7.9 13.6

Figure 7:HIV prevalence (%) by province 2002-2008

Province 2002 2005 2008

KwaZulu-Natal 11.7 16.5 15.8

Mpumalanga 14.1 15.2 15.4

Free State 14.9 12.6 12.6

North West 10.3 10.9 11.3

Gauteng 14.7 10.8 10.3

Eastern Cape 6.6 8.9 9.0

Limpopo 9.8 8.0 8.8

Northern Cape 8.4 5.4 5.9

Western Cape 10.7 1.9 3.8

National 11.4 10.8 10.9

Figure 8: HIV prevalence by population group, 2008

Population group Prevalence (%)

African 13.6

Coloured 1.7

White 0.3

Indian 0.3

Actuarial Society of South Africa’s 2003 Model

• Figure 9: Projections on key HIV/AIDS indicators for 2006, 2007, 2010 and 2015, using the ASSA default assumptions and rounded to the nearest whole number.

Calendar Year starting 1 July 2006 2007 2010 2015

Total population 47,866,985 48,218,209 49,147,178 50,328,901

Total HIV infections 5,372,474 5,511,749 5,813,088 6,027,508

Births infected prenatally 38,429 38,592 38,504 37,416

Babies newly infected by mother's milk 25,624 25,786 25,816 25,134

AIDS sick

New AIDS sick (over the past year ending on 30 June)

465,126 492,779 524,857 490,175

Total AIDS sick (in the middle of year) 599,298 633,931 701,508 797,003

Adults on ART 200,457 313,420 709,021 1,126,299

Adults with AIDS, not on ART 510,804 510,514 456,452 426,352

Children on ART 25,318 38,069 81,980 111,168

Children with AIDS, not on ART 26,955 27,289 26,807 25,432

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Deaths: 2006 2007 2010 2015

Male AIDS deaths (in the year starting 1 July)

163,016 167,357 175,358 187,217

Female AIDS deaths (in the year starting 1 July)

191,363 199,643 218,420 242,645

AIDS deaths (in the year starting 1 July) 354,379 367,000 393,777 429,862

Accumulated Aids Deaths (to middle of the year)

1,814,457 2,168,835 3,293,012 5,351,660

Adult AIDS deaths (15+) 309,715 320,893 341,106 373,145

Child AIDS deaths (0-14) 44,663 46,107 52,671 56,717

Prevalence rates 2006 2007 2010 2015

Antenatal clinics 28.3% 28.7% 29.2% 29.1%

Youth aged 15-24 10.4% 10.4% 10.5% 10.4%

Male population 10.1% 10.2% 10.5% 10.7%

Female population 12.3% 12.6% 13.1% 13.2%

Total population 11.2% 11.4% 11.8% 12.0%

…. continued

Incidence rates 2006 2007 2010 2015

Women aged 15 — 19 4.23% 4.22% 4.20% 4.22%

Youth 15-24 2.85% 2.85% 2.84% 2.86%

Adults (ages 20 — 64) 1.68% 1.63% 1.49% 1.38%

Total population 1.23% 1.20% 1.14% 1.09%

Total new infections (in the year starting 1 July)

521,607 512,931 492,244 481,471

Life expectancy at birth 50.7 50.5 50.4 50.3

1.3 Other Southern African Countries-AIDS epidemic update, Dec-2009

• The estimated number of adults and children living with HIV/AIDS, the number of deaths from AIDS, and the number of living orphans in individual countries in Southern Africa at the end of 2007 are shown below.

Figure 10: Southern Africa statistics (UNAIDS, 2009)

Country Peopleliving withHIV/AIDS

Adult (15-49)rate %

Women withHIV/AIDS

Children with HIV/AIDS

AIDS deaths

Orphansdue toAIDS

Swaziland 190,000 26.1 100,000 15,000 10,000 56,000

Botswana 300,000 23.9 170,000 15,000 11,000 95,000

Lesotho 270,000 23.2 150,000 12,000 18,000 110,000

South Africa 5,700,000 18.1 3,200,000 280,000 350,000 1,400,000

Zimbabwe 1,300,000 15.3 680,000 120,000 140,000 1,000,000

Namibia 200,000 15.3 110,000 14,000 5,100 66,000

Zambia 1,100,000 15.2 560,000 95,000 56,000 600,000

Mozambique 1,500,000 12.5 810,000 100,000 81,000 400,000

Malawi 930,000 11.9 490,000 91,000 68,000 560,000

United Rep. Of Tanzania 940,000 5.4 480,000 130,000 77,000 1,200,000

Total Southern Africa 12,430,000 6,750,000 872,000 816,100 5,487,000

Concluding facts• Southern Africa remains the area most heavily affected by the

epidemic. • The nine countries with the highest HIV prevalence worldwide

are all located in the sub region, with each of these countries experiencing adult HIV prevalence greater than 10%.

• Swaziland has the most severe level of infection in the world (UNAIDS, 2008).

• Botswana has an adult HIV prevalence of 24%, with some evidence of a decline in prevalence in urban areas (UNAIDS, 2008).

• Lesotho’s epidemic also appears to have stabilized, with an adult HIV prevalence of 23.2% in 2008.

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• South Africa is home to the world’s largest population of people living with HIV (5.7 million) (UNAIDS, 2008).

• For southern Africa as a whole, HIV incidence appears to have peaked in the mid-1990s.

• In most countries, HIV prevalence has stabilized at extremely high levels.

• Two rounds of household surveys indicate that national HIV incidence fell significantly between 2004 and 2008 in the United Republic of Tanzani,

• a significant drop in HIV incidence was also noted among women in Zambia between 2002 and 2007.

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• Zimbabwe has experienced a steady fall in HIV prevalence since the late 1990s; studies have linked this decline with population-level changes in sexual behaviours

• There is still no evidence of a decline in infections among pregnant women in South Africa, where more than 29% of women accessing public health services tested HIV-positive in 2008 (Department of Health, 2009).

• However, while national adult HIV prevalence in South Africa has stabilized, prevalence among young people (aged 15–24) started to decline in 2005, as shown among antenatal clinic attendees (from about 25% in 2004–2005 to 21.7% in 2008) and young men and women included in the national population based surveys (from 10.3% in 2005 to 8.6% in 2008)

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