Current Economic Situation and Prospects of...

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Report No. 458a-TO Y Current Economic Situation and Prospects of Togno December 30, 1974 Western Africa Regional Office Not for Public Use Document of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development international Development Association C: -- - This report was prepared for official use only by the Bank Group. It may not bc pub!:shed, quoted or cited without Bank Group authorization. The Bank Group does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the report. Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized

Transcript of Current Economic Situation and Prospects of...

Report No. 458a-TO YCurrent Economic Situationand Prospectsof TognoDecember 30, 1974

Western Africa Regional Office

Not for Public Use

Document of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Developmentinternational Development Association

C: -- -

This report was prepared for official use only by the Bank Group. It may notbc pub!:shed, quoted or cited without Bank Group authorization. The Bank Group doesnot accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the report.

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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

1. Currency unit: CFAF Franc (CFAF')

2. Fixed parity: 50 CFAF = 1 FF

3. The CFAF floats against all other currencies.Between February 12, 1973 and Januarv 197h,.the US$ exchange rate has fluctuated betweenOFAF 205 - 255 = 1 US$.

4. The following rates have been used in this report:

1 US$ = CFAF

1973 2301972 2561971 2781970 2781969 2581968 and earlier 247

WEIGHTS AND MEASURE

I metric ton (t) - 2,205 lbs.

1 kilogram (kg) = 2.2 lbs.

1 kilometer (km) - 0.62 mile

1 meter (m) 3.28 feet

inis report is based on the findings of an economic missionwhich visited Togo in November/December 1973. The mission was composed ofMessrs. Rolf Glaeser (mission chief),. Chuong Phung (general economist)and Serge Michailof (agricultural economist; consultant). Mr. FrancisLethem (Chief, Education projects division) participated in the missionfield work (part-time).

The report takes into account comments made by the Governmentduring discussions in November/December 1974.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIST OF TEXT TABLES Page No.

COUNTRY DATA

MAPS: Economic ResourcesRainfallTransportation Network

LIST OF ABBREVIATTONS

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS .............................. i - vii

I. INTRODUCTION .................................... iII. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ..................... i

III. PUBLIC FINANCE POSITION ......................... iiIV. SECTOR DEVELOP1MENTS ............................. iv

V. PROSPE,CTS ....................................... vi

I. INTRODUCTION ......................................... 1

II. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVLLOPMENT ..... 3..................... 3

2.1 Overall Development ..... ................... 32.2 Investment and Savings ..... ................. 52.3 Balance of Pavments ................... .... 5...... 2.4 Terms of Trade ...... ..................... 82.5 Monetqrv Develonments ..... ...................... 82.! Price Movements ...... ........................... 11

III. PUBLIC FINANCE POSITION ..................... 13

3.1 Current Revenues . .......................... 133.2 Current -xnenditure.................. 133.3 Budgetary Savings and Liquiditv Position .... .... 163.4 PtuF-lir Tnvestment and Tts Financin. .... ......... 183.5 External Public Debt ............................ 18

IV. SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS ....... ........................... 20

4.1 Agriculture .................. .................... 204.2 Secor.dar- Sector ?........................... 74.3 Transport ................... .................... 284.4 ...................................... 6.284.5 Tourism .................... ..................... 30

TABLE OF CONTENTS (Cont'd) Page No.

V . UlJ V £IJl't I LL'I I. lwol LA. i.... . . . . . . . . . . . . I

5_.1 IJV rJl-J Prospects, I7 /.-1 j.

5.2 Tentative Balance of Payments Projections) 1974-85 31r '1 .s.. mn fl~ ~~ .........

5.3 lentatL ve Gjjr Projections, 1974'-8 34

5.4 Financial Outlook ............................... 37,.5 External Aid and CredC-worthiness . ............... 3gJ J Exendix Ieirnua Evlu aofL teEuaoSS.

Appendix I: rellImnary E-valuatioII of Lite EdUCaionI SeCtor

LIST OF TEXT TABLES

Table No. Page No.

1. GDP, 1966-73 .......... ................................... 4

/ 2. Investment and Savings, 1966-73 .......................... 6

3. Balance of Payments, 1966-73 ............................. 7

4. Terms of Trade, 1966-73 .................................. 9

5. Monetary Developments, 1966-74 ........................... 10

6. Trends in Consumer Prices, 1966-74 ....................... 12

7. Profile of Public Finance, 1966-75 ....................... 14

8. Development of Government Personnel, 1966-74 .... ......... 15

9. Public Sector Liquidity Indicators, 1966-74 .... .......... 17

10. Public Investment and Its Financing, 1966-70 .... ......... 19

11. Selected Agricultural and Regional Indicators ............ 21

12. Illustrative Mission Projections:Terms of Trade 1974-85 ................................... 32

13. Illustrative Mission Proiections:Balance of Payments 1974-85 .............................. 33

14. Illustrative Mission Projections:GDP 1974-85 ............................................. 35

15. Illustrative Mission Proiections:Investment and Savings 1974-85 ........................... 36

16. Illustrative Mission Projections:Public Investment Financing 1976-80 .- .- ...-

Page 1 of 2 pages

COUNTRY DATA - TOGO

AREA 2/POPULnATION DENSITY56,785 2m/ 2.1 million (mid-1972) 36 per 2J/

Rate of Growth: 2.7% (from 1966to 1972) 55 per km,/of arable land

PDOPl A'TIONl CUADAR-fCTERITS." f,01 '7n ) tlT 97 -

Crude Birth Rate (per 1,000) 55 Population per physician 30,000Crude Death Rate (per 1,000) 29 Population per hospital bed 650Infant Mortality (per 1,000 live births) 121

INCOME DISTRIBUTION DISTRIBUTION OF LAND OWNERSHIP% of national income, highest quintile *- % owned by top 10% of owners

lowest quintile .. % owned by smallest 10% of owners

ACCESS TO PIPED WATER ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY% of population - urban *- % of population - urban

- rural .. - rural

NUTRITION EDUCA.TION t]972Calorie intake as % of requirements 90 Adult literacy rate 10%Per capita protein intake Primary school enrollment 56%

1/

GNP PER C.APTTA in 1971: US $ 150

GR-S -^TO'J- PRODUJML IN i97-!1f AN`NUAL RATE Or- GR^OW`'H IL, cor.t6.;pr-c

US $ Mln. % 1966-7o .1971 197

GNP at Market Prices 319.5 100.0 6.7 0.4 -0.7Gross f mRtir' Tnr patmentt 57 . 17.8Gross National Saving 39.8 12.5Current Account Balance -17.2 5.LExports of Goods, NFS 73.4 2'.0Imports of Goods, NFS 98.0 30.7

OUTPUT, LABOR FORCE ANDPRODbUC-,'vTITY IN l-nIC

Value Added Labor Force V. A. Per WorkerUS $ Mln. % Thds. % US $ 7%

Agriculture 130.0 38.7 550 77.5 236 50.0Industry 67.6 20.1Services 138.3 41.2 5160 22.5 f1,287 272.0U'vnallocate'

Total/Average 335.9 100.0 710 100.0 473 100.0

GOVERNMENT FINANCEGeneral GovArnment 'CentrAl Cnvernment

(CFAF Bln.) % of GDP ( CFAF Bln.) % of GDP1972 1972 1966-72 1972 1972 1966-72

Current Receipts 13.5 15.7 12.6 13.1 15.2 12.2Current Expenditure 11.1 12.9 10.4 10.7 12.4 10.0Current Surplus 2. 2. 2.2 2.4 2.8 2.2Capital Expenditures 2.9 3.4 2.3 2.9 3.4 2.3

1/ 1973 World Bank Atlas.

not availablenot applicable

Page 2 of 2 pages

COUNTRY DATA - TOGO

MONEY, CREDIT and PRICES 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973(LlIions of CFA francs outstanding end period)

Money and Quasi Money 6, 77 8 11,4901 ,o "Aa I3L 15,,,9

Bank Credit to Public Sector J -2,527 -2,643 -2,692 -4,742 -3,6b9 -2,269 -1,776Bank Credit to Private Sector 4 , 317 5,967 6,369 8,375 9,435 10,190 13,336

(Percentages or Index Numbers)

Money and Quasi Money as % of GDP 12.3 14.4 16.5 17.3 17.8 16.2 17.3General Price Index (1963 = 100) | 101.1 101.4 107.5 112.5 119.6 129.2

Annual percentage changes in:General Price Index 2 -2.3 0.3 6.o 4.6 6.3 8.0Bank credit to Public Sector 26.5 4.6 1.9 76.1 -23.0 -37.8 -21.7Bank criA4e to Pr4 vate Sector 17.2 38.2 6.7X7 3I. 8.0 1.1

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (AVERAGE 1970 - 72 3/

1 970 1971 1972 US $ Mln %(Millions US $)

Cocoa beans 17.6 34.5Exports of Goods. NFS 78.1 83.9 80.5 PhnRnhnte 16 3 * 0Imports of Goods, NFS 85.6 99.7 115.2 Coffee 9.5 18.6Resource Gap (deficit = -) 775 -15.8 -34.7 "I other coesodities 76.9

Interest Payments (net) 1.0 2.7 ( Total 51.0 100.0Workers' Remittances -1.3 -1.8 <-9.1Other Factor Payments (net) -5.8 -7.0 tNet Transfers 16.8 20.8 26.6 EXTERNAL DEBT, DECEMBER 31. 1973Balance on Current Account 3. -1.1 -17.2

US $ MlnDirect Foreign Investment 1.0 3.9Net MLT Borrowina 1.8 2.1 C5.9 Pu_blic Debt, incl. guarateed 793

Disbursements (4.7) (6.1) (13.7) Non-Guaranteed Private DebtAmortization (-2.9) (-4.0) (-7.8) Total outstanding & DisbursedSubtotal (i.8) (21 t5.9)

Capital Grants (8.4) (l0.4) (13.3) DEBT SERVICE RATIO for 1972 /Other Capital (net) -5.L -0.7 2.3 %Other items n.e.i 0.2 ,Q n-8Increase in Reserves (+) 0.8 -0.8 -8.2 Public Debt, incl. guaranteed 5.0

Non-Guaranteed Private Dab,Gross Reserves (end year) 46.3 47.2 44.5 Total outstanding & DisbursedNet Reserves (end year) 37.1 36.3 31.1Fuel ane -plar-d marntei4la

Imports 2.9 4.0 4.3of which petroleum 0.5 0.5 0.5Exports- =

RATE 017 EXCHK1TE 1BkD/IDA '°'MI.N,G, April 30, 1974 (`illion UVS$k)

The CFAF floats against all other currencies. BetweenFebruarv 12. 1973 and Januarv 1974. the US$ exchanze IBRD IDArate has fluctuated between CFAF 205 - 255 to 1 US$.The following rates have been used (1 uS$ equals CFAF): Outstanding & Disbursed - 3.3

1973 200-~ Undisbursed -9.1

1972 256 Outstanding incl. Undisbursed -1971 - 2781970 - 2781969 - 258

1/ Credit to Government:/ African Consumer Price Index3/ Recorded Exports Only

Preatimoi-orat2/Ratio of Debt Service to Exports of Goods and Non-Factor Services

I --

>11 =100 C_-A_K4l

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JANUARY 1968 TOGD . _, =R

REPUBLIC~~~~~~~~ OF _ ____,_ --____

EGNO!GRESOURCES -- - -__

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t t ~~~P^lnc produlcto K p i m

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JANUJARY 19h8 IhRD166-1028-R.I

:~~~~~ P Pl} A FX

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TOIGO

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i~ j05r L4 r <-oo N. b

Bossa,i

2 9 SokodeS

* _ _o 0 Atok

R A I N F A L L 1>>/ l, N%0

Rainfall in mm. 9NP.o;t \jo

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JULY 1967 IBRD-2097

!8RD 2238R!t lJ p ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~DECEMBIER 19721

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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

ADB - African Development BankBCEAO - Banque Centrale des Etats ae l'Afrique de l'OuestBTD - Banque Togolaise de D6veloppementCEB - Communaute Electrique du BeninCEET - Compagnie Energie Electrique du TogoCERFER - Centre Regional de Formation oour Entretien RoutierCFDT - Cie. Franc,aise pour le Developpement des Fibres TextilesCFT - Chemins de Fer du TogoCIMAO - Ste. des Ciments de l'Afrique de l'OuestGNCA - Cni.sse Nationale du Gredit AgricoleCNE - Cai8se Nationale dl'pargnerMPPIA. - Cen+.re Nat.innl nplor 1 Promotion dps Petites Pt

Moyennes EntreprisesCN!SSS - taisse =+ Natinql e rip qIc teSGi1CTM1 -- Cie. Togolaise des Mines du BeninFADP Fonds ciIAmorticzpmpnt. ride 12 Dette 1nhhlinqFGCET - Fonds de Garantie des Credits aux Entreprises TogolaisesFNI - Fonds~ Natlonal d ITnvestli sement

IFCC - Institut Francais pour le Cafe et le CacaoITT - Industrie Textile Togol.aiseOPAT - Office des Produits Agricoles du TogoO)TP Off.-ice Tog-l-is des nvshae

RPT - Rassemblement du Peuple TogolaisSAB A- Ste. de All,ettes 'u Be'niSCIA - Ste. Industrielle Chimique AfricaineSIJY - St . NTati4on 'Ie UTnves4i s - - 4

SOCITO - Ste. Industrielle TogolaiseSnnpT = -+A .. ds Dtergents du, Togo

SONAPH - St6. Nationale de D6veloppement de la Palmeraie et desnu-±.IleC

SORAD - St6. Regionale d'Amenagement et de DeveloppementLSO±.TOrA - SI tu. TogolUai'Lse UU Fd.e VI M - uzr e U des U'A er .LAU

SOTO@MRIAUX - Ste. Togolaise de MateriauxQuOV l - 4.4 V-4. -- - - -1 U 1 J_- 'I T14 -1 _V__1 V1 C _: CV V_ 4:;|ikil AJ v - LI UU. I~d I±IC L id.L J..U_ PJULAJ. ±d3 IUIIUJV dU.L'II UVI .L *A, " ~VV w y%1U

de la Cacaoy'ere et de la Cafeiere TogolaiseS L.D - ue. Iogolaise e U DBUL1so

STOGA - Ste. Togolaise de Cr6dit AutomobileuTB - unlonl Togolaise de DwiuLue

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

I. INTRODUCTION

i. During the first decade after Togo's independence the economy ex-nanded ranidlv. This was nrimarilv a result of rining nhnonhate and cocoaexports and booming commerce, including unrecorded border trade. Still,thp nvprnll liypl nf A1puslnnmpnt iq lnw and l.NP npr ranita AnmnintoF tn onlu$150 in 1971. Fluctuations of world market prices for cocoa and coffee, thetwo lpeadic~ng ar-(',t1tral pexport commodities, caused conidc.rable shornt-te-rm

variations in the terms of trade and in economic growth.

ii. Longer-term growth potential in Togo exists in the form of abundantpiv t-4x,bhl a 1 nsr 4in corti 4 n regn4 on osvl n4 fep ta1 o m4nrer resources and a vari etyof commercial opportunities. On the other hand, there are major developmentcor.straints, mostly of a structural nature, 4hich are dfficult to overcome inthe short-term. These obstacles include the small size of the domestic market,ur.ever. popyla-Ion distribution,, the prevalence of er.d^mic4-- disas, the-eveof education and technical know-how, as well-as urban unemployment and ruralunderemploymen.t.

-t 4.9 A.-ard of the problems, t.e G-vernment huas recently steppedA up ef:-.LAJ.L . LWC IA. 'LAI j L I/UA.5M I J V L a .%.6LL.J L %L.'. . A./~

forts to increase absorptive capacity through technical assistance and projectpreparation. 1 Lfrastructure proJects havla e laid the groundU for directly pro=ductive investments. The Government has actively pursued a policy of regionalcoopLperatLion to open up -possibilities for diversification andU exploitation ofnatural resources on a multinational basis. A reform of the education systemLs bUeiLng studied withLl a vLew to better adapt'ing iLt to economi.Lc andu socialneeds. Recent efforts to attach more importance to agricultural productionand rural developm-ent, t-o promotue sruall- andA m,ediu..,sizeA indiger.ous enter=prises, and to reform the education system indicate the Government's growingconcern for urgenl socio-economic problems.

II. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

i-v. During the First Development Plan (1966-70), GIJP reLW aUnnually by6% in constant prices, mainly due to booming exports and improved termsof trade as a result of high cocoa prLceS. FrUoreign reserveS, public savings,and deposits rose markedly, while consumer prices remained fairly stable.The balance of payments and public finance position developed fa-vorably.

v. However, during-1971-73 deciining.terms of trade, agriculturai cropshort-falls'due to ba'd'weather, and'decreasing border trade contributed to adeterioration' in the economic and financiai situation. The estimated real GDPgrowth was"of the ord`er bf 1-2% per year. Agricultural producer prices rose

- ii -

only slightly and salary rates remained unchanged during 1972 and 1973. Re-eional income disnarities nrobablv widened since the drought was especiallvsevere in the already disadvantaged northern regions. Higher investmentstmnnorarilv ruiihioned the effpcts of the worsening external trade nosition.According to very preliminary estimates, national savings dropped from morethan 10n nf G-DP during 1966-67 to less than 5% in 1972 and even lowpr in 1973.

v4. The bala,ny-ce nf npaments depteriorntpd hprneaup of stanntina pynnrts

and rising imports. Falling cocoa prices combined with rising import pricesct. vqorsening of the terms of trade wlhirlh nnlxy starteid t-o roecover by the

end of 1973. The effect of the decline of the terms of trade on total incomeis estImated at 6% of C-DP on average for 1971-73. Tentative estimates sug-gest that the resource gap widened from about 1% of GDP during 1966-70 toruhy V0S.1%)¢ in 10772 .Anu eve mo i 197? 13. Irl-e4ef41f -c -4-e41., iF4-* UU6tU ± y I U/. it I 2 { L a.ttU C VCU UlWl C LtZ* v { J, ,C i1 Ct W;L X X WaO - i ,aL 1 X - s--i

nanced by increased aid inflows and a drawdown of foreign reserves. Thesediropped by a'most 50% fror, DecemLber !970 to Tuly t973 or frcem a level of sixmonths' import requirements to less then three.

vit. Domestic credit expanded rapidly in recent years chiefly because ofti'. 'ov rj-e t' fi'l' _'LA2 c _L 'L s e ui4n aX- ~1 - A-14- t -; -1 14 A-- - F n 4 _ '-

L LI1 1JUVVLLUU~IIL ~ U~iiCLL ~peLiU.LLL~ ~IiU LUI UP4J~LLC_LL FUV:LULJ. UCvX.LMD. LIX .n g1Lr

import prices and drought-induced food shortages led to an increase in con-sumer prices off roughlLy 7,, per year recently as against an estimate 1-2%during 1966-70. The money supply rose only moderately since the expansionarye,f£ ect ofk domesttc credit was lidarge'ly comLpensated 'oy tlhe ULawUo-UI, of -e gIireserves.

viii. Preliminary data obtained in late 1974 suggest a marked improve-.nent of Togo's current economic anrd financial position. During the firstsix months of 1974 phosphate exports rose to about CFAF 12 billion, and theynow account for about two-thirds of [lerclhandise exports. Total recorded ex-ports roughly tripled during the first half of 1974 against thie correspond-ing 1973 period primarily as a result of substantially higher world markeLprices for the country's principal export commodities. The 1974 trade bal-ance, ttherefore, will show a surplus for tne first time since 1969. Foreignreserves increased in line with the more favorable external trade situationand in fall 1 974 they represented the equivalent of approximately seven monthsof import requirements. GDP growth in 1974 is tentatively estimated to ex-ceed 20% in current prices and might be in the neighborhood of 1U0 in realterms.

III. PUBLIC FINANCE POSITION

ix. During the First Plan, public finance improved markedly thanks toboth an austerity policy until 1968 and economic expansion. Current revenuesrose at twice the GDP expansion rate and exceeded current expenditure growth.Rising budgetary savings, together with modest capital budget outlays, ledto a marked improvement of the Government's liquidity position. Savingsfrom semi-public agencies, notably OPAT trading surpluses, grew as well.

x. Budgetary revenues rose from about 11% of GDP during 1966-70 toaround 15% in 1971/72 mainly because of new Government tax measures to in-crease and diversify fiscal revenues. The major impact ot the recent deteri-oration of public finance seems to have occurred with a time lag in 1973when revenues dropped by an estimated 18% during the first 10 months of theyear. At the same time OPAT's financial position worsened and resulted ina substantial drawdown of public reserves.

xi. With a relaxation of the austerity policy in 1968-69, current expen-diture increased rapidly from 9% of GDP in 1966-70 to 13% in recent years.Personnel expenditures were one of the most dynamic factors. The number ofGovernment employees rose at an annual average rate of about 18% per year dur-ing 1970-73 as against nearly 7% in 1966-70. In view of this upsurge the Gov-ernment may wish to review its personnel policy and to evaluate manpower needsin relation to Government functions and in light of the financial implications.According to a functional classification, social services (especially educa-tion and public health), general services, and debt service absorbed increas-ing proportions of public expenditure, while appropriations for agricultureremained at the low level of only 6% of total current expenditure. Giventhe dynamism of expenditure growth, the authorities may wish to review ex-penditure policies in light of development priorities, including the planningof recurrent cost to achieve a high degree of fiscal flexibility.

xii. Budgetary savings remained roughly at the 1966-70 level of 2.7% ofGDP, even though in 1973 it appears a marked decline occurred. Higher capitalbudget outlays caused increasing cash deficits and thereby reduced the Govern-ment's liquidity position. Government deposits dropped from CFAF 4.7 billionor 47% of revenues in 1970, to CFAF 1.4 billion in October 1973 or 10% of1973 revenues.

xiii. Public investment amounted to about 7.8% of GDP during 1966-70.External funds Drovided 69% of total cost (mainly Germanyv FED and Franrp).The bulk of public investment was in infrastructure (57%), while directlyproductive investments accounted for only 29% (rural develooment 18%. industry

and trade 11%). Partial data indicate thiat sizeable amounts were earmarkedin recent vears for infrastructure including administrativesnoecal aervirp

investments, particularly in Lome. A growing proportion of the cost of theseDroiects was finanred with domestic funds. In view of devplopment nriorities;especially in agriculture, the Government may wish to review the public invest-ment nolicv with a view to nutting more emphasis on directly nrodt,,rive in-vestments. A set of investment criteria could help provide the conceptualframpwnrk for u a Q ytemnti nrnio4ct scrru,tinvy

XivY Public foreign debt has so far remained at-a rather low level.In December 1973 it amounted to about $93 million or 23% of the estimated1973 GDP, includ4ng a $25 million private British bank loan for r. oiI refin-ery. In the past, Togo received about 80% of its aid disbursements on agrant baTsiS. LWith the n - elment of fe ass4

otffce exc4eding9, on- dbttL O^- >D C [s W- W-F V *- -r,- - V - * x-e- °iJ -a -° - --A -C-& t -4 -MO _ -U

service payments in the past were kept at a low but moderately growing level.The deb- servi.ce ratio average' 3% *i 196670 .- bu increased to 5% i. 197) dutoIIu UL L J/h Lpa 7ymt UUL L aU LUtl Jsantg exp ort UUeto higher payments and virtually, stagnating exports.

- iv -

xv. The economic turnabout in 1974, outlined in para. viii, has helpedimprove, publice finance and1 A,ompQt--i resoulrce mnh1liat1lon Grreint Gove~~rn-

ment revenues for 1975 are budgeted at about CFAF 30 billion -- an increaseof nearly 90% against 1974. Three-quarters of the expect… d revenue arowth

will come from taxes and dividends generated primarily in the mining sector.Current expenditures. ar nplnned to rice hby aont A42 tn almnot CFAF 21 hil-

lion. Substantially higher budgetary savings have enabled the Government tonrepnar the 197q InVroef-mant butdgept- wit-h a rerde leve-l nf nearly CFAF I0 bil-

lion or about three times the average annual Government investment expendi-ture during the last few years.

IV. SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS

xvi. Agricul.ure, the LiAost O -S.iIj,-tJ sector, F.t'y 0 of the acti.ve --

population. Agricultural products account for more than 50% of exports andthic4r contribution to C=DP is close to40%. Tn recent years a.gricul-tual pro

duction seems to have shown little, if any, progress although it is difficult'L irLaale a full assessmer,t because of statistical problems., and unrecordedborder trade. During the First Plan agricultural production rose by 3-4% peryear i'n real teLruis; thLe SLecondu L"dan caAL'Ls 'Lor an annual increase of 6*6 U( inconstant prices, but it seems unlikely that the plan objectives can be met.15ricultural exports stagnLatedU over the last fLew years despite sizeable annuaslfluctuations which were mainly due to changes in both world market prices andle-vels of production and border trade. Partial evidenc suggest5 that foodcrop production -- 75% of total agricultural output --- also tended to stagnate.-Ai nlUImDer CoL tactors account t or tl-U recent souwuWu1 LLI [Xv: UUL [ %, UnLadVULdUe4

weather conditions, a low level of investment and current expenditures, insti-tutional difficulties, lack of project preparation, and unattractive producer prices.

xvii. The Government has recently taken steps to attack some urgent prob-lems. it has created several product-oriented public corporations to helppromote such crops as coffee, cocoa, oil palm, cereals, and fruits. Thisproliferation of development agencies, however, has led to institutionaldifficulties especially with the SORADs (regional rural development agencies).The Government also set up a special rural planning unit in the Ministry ofRural Development to strengthen the central agricultural services. It raisedproducer prices somewhat and continued efforts to broaden the use of fertil-izers and to come to grips with land tenure problems by initiating reformlegislation.

xviii. To help promote exports, the Government is implementing a cocoa/coffee rehabilitation project with IDA and FAC financing. Palm productionhas encountered difficulties and promotion plans deserve reconsideration.Efforts to increase cotton output have not been successful so far due tounfavorable weather, lack of project preparation, and inadequate marketingarrangements. The Government isre-examining the cotton development policy.

v

Prospects are good in certain regions and rotation with foodcrops, especiallyhybrid maize, would simultaneously help promote cash crops and foodcrops.An nAdeuate csinnl-t nf .AnmoctFir fnnrlct-iiffo ic 1 itkolu tf h morn arnT.T;nl--- r-- ---v --- - - - -- -- -- -m grow nproblem unless increased efforts are made. A foodcrop project is being pre-rar.d Iir t-h,M Mn-4t-4mD Raenon wi4thi paossibln Brank Group, f4i-nnann. Prospe,ts

for livestock development including animal traction are limited to certainregions.

rcx.i- E-ve. '.th uh.PAT'Ws.f4".n4 -coSitJ 4 has d o.ewht

in the, last few years, the agency has continued to make. trading- prof itssince its creat-ion In 1965 - £(CFAF 7 billion, cumul.----ave until 173-or. 10% ofbudget revenues)-. -This has been the result of a rather restrict-ive producerprice polic 4y.- - IMh.,aver-eA. t.o- for the COCoa ar.d cof ee -- during1966-71 was close, to 5-0%_. Dur-ing 1966-70., 61% o-f OPAT's investments were intradce "An-i-,u,ry, .'res.ual- d.eop,.ent proects accounte-fo nl`%L. -0 A%A-s JLLU UL tAi,.L-y-, W LLC t-J OV.Vllll JLU OL : LLJULL U L a Ut'LILy V/.

-OPAT a1Lso- lefit:.¢CFAF -4A billion, or 35% -of i,ts total assets,, to the publicsetor. .aa as ofa a-op LOAIUOL 1'7 IS.* J. C-.. D-T''a-i. aa-a.1'. positio-LUI islike..lrty to) 'r,,proL)ve

in vi-ew of the-more fa.vorabl-e cocoa and coffee market situ-at ion, and an..4LL C~ ncras o JUULO produc A_JLO~ -ILJUJU- I_C SIDI~U± WLLLIUUIL UiIUU.LY Lj:L1LJ.tL.iLr, Pa-VU.LL..'ncrease o k;,Iucer- VLXt_c s-sthou-LL IL e fJ easibl,-e: wi:thut- unduly ' v,mi-n- profigrowth. It w,ould, seem th,at OPAT:-polil.ces-.should be better coord:inated withother publ''c sLctuor a-c-tXtVAFt:L.Les t'o promo-te rura'l d e v e lo0pm11 en-Lt.

I'1II'A ?. .4a 4 -. t. ~ -~ J T - Ixx. QV:Ut1,S acL-LVL±tCs -h1av.C ueen lim.LiCU. Lts Loans arounteU U to on ULLy

8% of total cred-its.to the private sector in 1973. CNCA had staffing and£ ~ ~ ~ -_ h_ …t__ _ :___Ir_. 4 -- _ > nnfAfl. -- __k:UUlUil ProueU s, aand all usadLL- LdCtULy CUop e r1 LZ t iO Lrute OU5 as interL-

mediaries resulted in low, credit recovery rates,.

xxi. Major problems still exist and the authorities feel that increasede:forts are necessary to furthner,promote rural development. They recognizethat only about hal-f of the arable land is cultivated. Some structural con-straints such; as regional -soil erosion. and overpopulation, rural exodus, andnon-utilization of water and l-and resources because of riverblindness willDe difficuit.to overcome-.' Areas or furtner action snouid inciude cotton andfoodcrop promotion, pos.sibly-..wi.th the help, of a rural development fundproject. Complex institutional probiems. (central services~, SOuADs, product-oriented agencries,, OPAT, CNCA) deserve 'fu'rther: study. Sta-ffing and fundingof the agriculitura-T credit system, need- improvement.. Finally, pUliC fundingfor urgent rural capital and current expenditures should be increased.

.xxii. The' secondary sector is;s till. .small .but expanding. Phosphate'output. has continued. -to. risej.while construction activities, have, slowed downrecently. New -investments,have been made to increase phosphate-production by25%. The Go-vernments- .. industrialization policy is direct-ed toward promotion-of indigenous.-enterpris,es,, processing- of agricultural products,.and- importsubstitution. The. Government is aLso conslidering a rew major capital-inten-sive projects.. CIMAO- would enable the Government to exploit substantialdomestic limestone resources and to toster regional cooperation. A phosphate-based fertilizer project is still in preparation, while the oil refinery isplanned to start operation by 1977.

- vi -

xxiii. Transport investments remained at a high level of approximately40% of public investment. Large outlays are being planned with substantialforeign aid for the extension of thle Lome deep water port and the paving ofthe main north-south axis highway. Since road transport accounts for 90% offreight traffic, the Government continues to attach high priority to theextension and upgrading of the highway system.

xxiv. The Government has made substantial efforts to expand the educationsystem. Primary school enrollment increased from 36% in 1965 to 56% in 1972.The Lome University was opened in 1972. Education expenditures, however,now account for nearly 25% of total current expenditures despite sizeableparental and community contributions. The financial implications of expansionplans require careful consideration. Moreover, a better adaptation of theeducation system to labor market requirements is needed. The Government hasset up reform commissions to study education problems and draw up proposalswith a view to adapting the system to economic realities. In their discussions,the authorities might further consider some preliminary mission observationson alternatives to the existing structure, teacher qualifications, developmentof education materials, relationship of educational investments to economicdevelopment, and financing and phasing of reforms.

xxv. The Dublic sector spent large sums for tourism development. TheTropicana tourist complex, financed largely by OPAT, was completed in 1972.A 250-bed deluxe hotel in Lome wis onened in f11 197l,. A forthcomingUNDP-financed study should help review sector policies, investment prioritiesand finqnring schemes.

V. PROSPECTS

xXvi. In the ahbpncp nf the next Dveplnnment Plan (197F6-n) flhp misqinn

has prepared illustrative projections which constitute a preliminary outlineof likely future developmlent iunTder rertain working hypotheses. The estimatesneed to be updated as soon as more details are available, especially for theoil refinery, CrTMAO, and CTMB compensation payments.

xxvii. The terms of trade will improve more than 100n in 1974/75 mainlybecause of the tripling of phosphate prices,but in the second half of thedecade and in the ear'y 1980's our pro,ections -sggest that the teorms wil I

deteriorate somewhat because of rising import prices. Better terms of tradeanA 15 1higher* 1 ophate o1.utut w.l4.1 IvL t.he balan cea of p.eJt- 4r- F*I- -t.

few years. Higher export prices will outweigh by far the impact of the largeroil bil whch wil rlse -fror, 5YOf im.ports in1927 to about 1370 ir. 107A/75.The current account deficit, which will relatively decline, will be largelyfi:nanced by foreign capiLtal iLnfLlows, espec4ally for i..ports -1lated rto MArla. dL U u L oil re. --

and the oil refinery.

- vii -

xxviii. GDP growtn is expected to acceierate in 1974/775 mainiy Decause otrapidly rising phosphate sales. Thus, during 1970-75, real GDP growth mayaverage about 6% per year as against perhaps 1-2% for the period 1970-73 alone.In the second half of the decade and the early eighties GDP is projected toexpand by about 8% on average per year or approximately 4% in real terms.National savings will rise substantially in view of high investment outlaysand a relative decline in the current account deficit.

xxix. The expected economic recovery will help improve the public financeposition. The Government has already taken measures to increase revenues inthe original 1974 budget by more than 20% against the 1973 budget. OPAT sur-pluses are likely to rise again in view of the cocoa and coffee market con-ditions even if producer prices and export taxes are increased. The missionhas attempted to establish a rough outline of a financing pattern for publicinvestment for 1976-80. Government revenues are estimated to reach a levelof nearly 20% of GDP mainly through higher receipts from profits of publicenterprises, especially CTMB, and through other revenue growth in line withgenerally favorable economic conditions. Current expenditures are projectedto rise to around 14% of GDP. This will require more stringent control ofexpenditure growth'and a concentration on development priorities. Budgetarysavings might, under these conditions, reach about 5.7% of GDP and total pub-lic savings should reach approximately 7% of GDP as against 3.5% during 1966-70. Debt service payments will rise rapidly to about 2.1% of GDP so that netpublic savings will be 4.7% of GDP -- still a substantial increase over the1966-70 level of 2.9%. Another feature of the illustrative financing patternis the necessary build-up of foreign reserves so a minimum reserve level inrelation to the sizeable import growth can be maintained.

xxx. The projections assume a continuation of foreign aid from diversifiedsources with large proportions of grants and concessionary loans, except tothe two large mining and refinery projects. Under these conditions, the debtservice ratio is projected to be about 5% for the second half of the decadebut could reach an average of 10% in the early eighties when major repaymentsfor CDIAO are due and debt contracted for the oil refinery will still haveto be serviced. The tentative projections, which will be revised pendingfurther data availability, can, of course, only provide rough orders ofmagnitude.

xxxi. In summary, it appears growth prospects are fair and externalpublic debt will remain within manageable limits. Considering the country'spoverty and reasonably good performance, foreign donors should continue toprovide development aid on mainly concessionary terms and be prepared tofinance a large proportion of project costs. In view of the economy's smallsize and the present uncertainty about essential features of large under-takings and about external (border) trade, an increase in conventional publicborrowing seems currently only justified for directly productive investmentswith appropriate self-financing and debt service arrangements. Periodicreassessments of creditworthiness might later lead to the iustification ofsome conventional borrowing for general development financing if economic andfinancial conditions develop more favorably than is presently assumed.

I. INTRODUCTION

1. This report updates information on the current economic positionof Togo. The last economic report (Report N° 34a-TO of December 20, 1972)covered mainly the period of the First Five Year Development Plan (1966-70)and partly 1971. The present analysis focuses on developments during thefirst three years of the Second Plan (1971-75). Preliminary projectionsprovide an illustrative survey on development prospects during the rest ofthe seventies and the early eighties.

2. During the first decade after independence the economy expanded ata fairly high rate primarily as a result of steadily rising phosphate andcocoa exports and booming commerce, which includes unrecorded border trade.Tentative estimates suggest an average GNP per capita growth rate of 4.6%per year during the 1960-71 period. 1/ Nevertheless, the overall level ofeconomic development is still low and GNP per capita, for instance, amountedto only $150 in 1971. 1/ In the second half of the last decade economicgrowth accelerated because of better terms of trade and, in particular, be-cause of favorable world market conditions for the two principal agriculturalexport commodities. cocoa and coffee. During the early seventies the termsof trade worsened substantially and the country's economic and financialposition deteriorated until well into 1973. Very recently the trend discontinuedprimarily because cocoa prices have risen rapidly and phosphate prices havetrinled on world markets- which have more than offset higher imDort costsfor oil. For 1974 and the following years, therefore, a marked recovery isexnpcted bhasd esentinallv on imnroved terms of trade and growing phosphateand other exports.

3. Togo has development potential in a number of fields which shouldpormt longer-tem eornnnmir grnowth nt n cstfifnrtnrv level. Ahbindannt

cultivable land in certain regions offers prospects for increased food andcash crop production. The exnloitation of natural resources such as phosphateand possibly other minerals, especially limestone, should help diversify theeconomyn and make it less vui1nerarhlo to world ma,l,rket f1unrrcitutinns for xpnnorr

products. The country's geographic situation and traditional links witlhnoeihboring oniftris,a combinea with loth lnw finscl levioe on extornal

trade and liberal trade policies, shiould provide continued opportunities forcomm.ercial and other terti-ary scAto-r ac-tiuities.

A- On the other hand, the country is cnnfrnonted-o witth a number of

development constraints, mostly of a structural nature, whichi are difficultto overcome in the short-run. Major obstacles include the small size of the

domestic market and limited overseas marketing facilities, wlhich especiallyhampe r industrial development; uneven populnation distribut4on resultni-n In

regional overpopulation and income disparities; prevalence of endemic dis-eases; the level of edu.ation and technical know-how which. limits the

a/ 1073 World "ank Atlas GDY -cit- in current prices was estimatedat $191 in 1973.

-2-

country's absorptive capacity; urban unemployment, primarily as a result ofthe rural exodus and insufficient adaptation of the largely imported educa-tion system to labor market requirements; as well as rural, seasonal under-employment.

5. Aware of the problems, the Government recently stepped up effortsto broaden the country's absorptive capacity and is devoting more attentionto technical assistance and project preparation, especially in agriculture.Large infrastructure investments in the past have laid the ground for moredirectly productive investments. The Government has actively pursued a policyof multinational regional cooperation (e.g. in power distribution, cementproduction, and common market arrangements) to open up possibilities fordiversification and exploitation of natural resources on a multinationallevel. It has made particular efforts to strengthen its relations with theIvory Coast as well as with the neighboring anglophone countries, Ghana andNigeria. These markets will in the future become more important for Togo'seconomic development. A reform of the education system is being studiedwith a view to better adapting it to the economic and social needs of thecountry. Recent efforts to promote agricultural production and rural develop-ment, to foster small- and medium-sized indigenous enterprises, and to reformthe education system indicate the Government's growing concern for urgentsocio-economic problems.

II. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

2.1 Overall Development

6. During the First Develonment Plan (1966-70) GDP grew annually by8.4% in current prices and about 6% in constant terms (Table 1). Allowingfor a npnulntion growth of neArlv 3%, real nrr esnita in'rome inctreased bvapproximately 3% per year. This favorable result was mainly due to improvedterms of trade. rnanA p,nnrt npir,a for inQtanpr rnos ahnbot 92% npr vyarduring 1966-70. The balance of payments and public finance position develop-ed favorably. Foreign reserves, budgetary savings, and government depo_itsincreased substantially while consumer prices remained fairly stable.

7. The economic and financial situation deteriorated, however, duringthe first three years of the Second Development Plan (1971-75), IT 1971 cer-tain factors, such as declining cocoa prices, indicated a turnaround in thecoun,trys eco,.omic situattion. La 1971, recorded mercUA9aise exports droppedby 10.5% and cocoa exports by 33%. During the following years the deteriorationaccenCuated, pr-iLLUar1 y bL.eca-use of worsenir.g terms oi tradde, unf avorsbleweather conditions resulting in agricultural production shortfalls and declin-i.-i U0orUdA. tradl.e U r Pe1.U.LLm L . L-y n.ational account est:mLcates suggest that GDP in

current prices continued to grow at rates of around 7-8% during 1971-73.ALt the same time, there are indicaloiRS thllat cUsumeLr prices rse rapidLy.The estimated average GDP growth in constant prices was perhaps of the orderof 1-2% per annum and per capita income in real terms probably declined. 1/|Large segments of the population felt the erosion of the purchasing powerbecause producer prices were only slighLly raised and salary rates (SMIG/SMAG)remained unchanged from January 1971 until December 1973. Regional incomedisparities most likely widened because the effects of the droughts wereespecially severe in the country's already disadvantaged northern regions.

8. Tentative data seem to indicate that the agricultural sector wasparticularly affected by the recent deterioration wnile the secondary andtertiary sectors, especially Government services, continued to expand atfairly high rates (Tables 1 and 2.1). Substantial investment activities in1971 -- with an expansion rate of 39% -- temporarily cushioned the deteri-oration caused primarily by the slowdown of agricultural production and exports.In 1972, both total exports and investment activities declined and the deteri-oration continued well into 1973.

9. Agriculture's contribution to GDP continued to drop and now accountsfor less than 40% as against 43% during 1966-70. The secondary sector's shareincreased slightly as phosphate production continued to rise and some industrialenterprises started operation. Flourishing commerce and growing Governmentexpenditures contributed to a more than proportionate increase of the tertiarysector.

1/ In the absence of a GDP deflator, the mission continued to use consumerprice indices as a rough proxy to estimate real growth.

Table 1: GDP, 1966 - 73

CFAF billion average annual growth rate (%) as a percenta e of GDP1966 1970 1971 1972 1973 1966-70 1971 15772 1973 1966 1970 1966-70 1971 1972 1973

1. Agriculture 23.3 30.2 31.7 33.3 34.6 6.7 5.0 6.0 4.0 43.9 41.2 43.2 40.0 38.7 37.6

2. Secondary sector 10.7 13.6 15.5 17.3 19.2 6.2 13.9 11.6 11.0 20.1 18.5 19.7 19.5 20.1 20.8(of which mining) (3.4) (.)()()().).). .)6.4) (rg ,)(, ,)(,

3. Tertiary igector 19.1 29.6 32.1 35.4 38.4 L1.6 8.4 10.3 8.5 36.0 40.3 37.1 40.5 41.2 41.6

4. GDP (1+2+35+6+7+8-9) 53'.1 73.4 79.3 86.0 92.2 8.4 8.0 8.4 7.2 100.0 100.9 100.0 100.0 100.10 100.0 r

5. Consumption 45.3 64.8 70.3 77.7 86.8 9.3 8.3 10.5 11.7 85.4 383.3 86.5 88.7 90.3 94.1

6. Grosrs fixed investmernts 7.3 9.5 13.2 12.6 14.0 6.8 38.9 -4.5 11.1 13.7 1;7.9 13.6 16.6 14.7 15.2

7. Changes in stocks 1.4 1.0 *.-1.8 2.0 2.0 . . . . 2.6 L.4 -0.1 -2.3 2.3 2.2

8. Exports (igoods + NFS) 1:2.8 20.4 2;1.9 18.8 18.9 12.4 7.4 -14.2 0.5 24.1 27.8 26.2 27.6 21.9 20.5

9. Imports (goods + NFS) 13.7 22.3 24.3 25.1 29.5 12.9 11.0 3.3 17.5 25.8 30.4 26.4 10.6 29.2 32.0

Source end footnotes' Appendix table 2.1

-5-

2 2I nvestmentand Savings

10. Highly tentative mission estimates indicate an increasing level ofinvestment in recent years (Table 2). Fixed investment now amounts to about15Y of G-DP -A gross Aomesti4

4i.11cct.nn -a,rond 17%. Pub14i Invest.ment acti-

1.A -A -.fl CS- 5l. -JO .SJlC I.- .1. -lcA. _ -.* .11 _O - -..t.1.~ at.

vities were particularly high in 1971/72, mainly for infrastructure projectsin Lome. Along wlt growing f4oreign ald disbursem.er.ts, expende141. foz exter-

nally financed investment projects increased. Higher investment outlays,thlerefore, tempered somLW-Lhat the deteriorating effecLts resulting fromCe. tworsening external trade position. But these high investment activities wereonly possibble at thle expense of a 'large udrawdo-w of r es-erJLves and -an increasing- - -

inflow of external assistance.

11. National savings wlhich amounted to close to 11% of GDP during 1966-70UroppeU in recent years accordUiLngr, toL 'A.rgLhLy prL LJrL,narL y esir,e. IhICl L iLsL LU=

lows from the apparent increase in the current account deficit -- an indicationoLU grow1'Xg U'epeiiueiice on LUoregn fi 'LLldllL i Ig uk UUIoest L1c ±L1VetLmetBIoL . DULII e

investment and current account estimates are subject to wide margins of erroruut a deteriorating trend IS ev'dentL.

2.3 Balance of Payments

12. Since part ofL Togo's traude with neilghb')orilng countriLes bi sUL U L -

cially recorded, balance of payments statistics can only be rough approxima-tions. With this note of caution, it appears tnat total exports declined in1972 and 1973, especially cocoa sales which were the prime source of theexport boom during the late sixties (Table 3). Coffee and phiosphate exportsgrew moderately but they could not offset the cocoa shortfall. The exportcommodity concentration remains nigh. About 9u0 or exports is accountedfor by the three leading commodities (cocoa, phosphate, coffee), which indi-cates the country's dependence on a few highly fluctuating world markets.

13. While exports declined, imports continued to increase. Importsassociated with higher external aid inflows (capital and certain intermediarygoods) and rising import prices contributed to this import growth. Food im-ports, including unrecorded imports, seem to have risen as a result of vir-tually stagnating domestic food crop production due to unfavorable weather,but are still relatively small (Tables 3.4 and 3.7). The country's principaltrading partners remained France, the Netherlands, and Germany which togetheraccounted for slightly more than 50% of total external trade. Some non-Europeancountries such as Japan, USSR and USA, somewhat expanded their trade sharewith Togo.

14. According to official statistics (which include estimates for un-recorded trade), the trade account was virtually balanced during 1966-70whereas in the following years it became increasingly negative (about 3% ofGDP in 1971 and 11% in 1973). Taking into account the traditionally negativeservice balance, the resource gap must have risen markedly. The average an-nual resource gap of CFAF 0.7 billion (1.1% of GDP) during 1966-70 increasedto CFAF 8.9 billion (10.3% of GDP) in 1972 and an estimated CFAF 13 billion(14% of GDP) in 1973.

Table 2: Investment cmd savirngs 1966--73

CFAF billion as a percentage of G-IDPaver age/yr.

19.66-7'0 1971 1972 1973 :L966*-70 1971 '1972 1973

1. Gross fixed investment tublic ) (4.o) 8,,o 7. .. 6.L- 10.1 8.1

2. Gross fixed investmernt (private) (4.5) 5.2 .6 .. 7,.2 6.6 6.5

3. Total. gross f'ixed investment (1+2) 8.5 13.2 12.6 1Lh.o 13.6 16.7 iL.6 15.2

l,. Changes i,n stocks -0.1 -1.8 2.0 2.0 -0.2 -2.3 2.? 2.2

<. Gross domestiLc investment (3+4) 8.1, 11-.4 114.6 '16.0 13.h 14.h 16.9 17.L

6. Current accoumt balance(goods and services) -1.7 -5,.4 -10.7 -15.3 -2.7 -6.8 -12.4 -16.6

7. Gross national savings ('+6) 6.c7 6. 3.9 0.7 10.7 7.6 h.5 0.8

Source and footno:tes: Appendix tables 2.1 and 3.1

Table 3 : Balance of payments 1966-73

CFAF bi:Llionaverage per year average annual growth rate ( as a perenta e of GDP

19616-70 1971 1972 1973 1966-70 1971 1972 1973 1966-70 1971 1972 1973

1. Exports 15.4 20.5 17.3 17.1 12.6 7.3 -15.6 -1.2 24.6 25.9 20.1. 18.5(of which recorded) (10.6) (13.6) (12.5) (12.5) 14.3 -10.5 -8.1 0 (115.9) (17.2) (14.5i) (13.5)

2. Imports 15.3 22.8 23.3 27.1 12.8 10.1 2.2 16.3 24.4 28.8 27.1 29.4(of which recorded) (19.5) (21.4) (25.1) 11.2 8.9 9.7 17.3 (24.6) (24.'9) (27.2)

3. Trade balance (1-2) 0.1 -2.3 -6.0 -.10.0 . . . . 0.2 -2.9 -7.0 *-10.8

4. Service balance -1.9 -3.1 -4.7 -5.3 . . . . -3.0 -3.9 -5.5 -5.7

5. Resource balance:Goods and NFS -0.7 -4.2 -8.9 -. 13.2 . . . . -1.1 -5.3 -10.3 -.14.3

6. Current account balance:Goods and services (3+4) -1.7 -5.4 -10.7 -.15.3 . . . . -2.8 -6.8 -12.4 -.16.6

-- 4

7. Transfers net. 3.3 5.2 6.3 6.9 . . . . 5.3 6.6 7.3 7.5

8. Capital movements (net) -0.1 1.4 2.0 3.0 . . . . -0.2 1.8 2.3 3.2

9. Monetary' movements a) -1.2 0.2 2.L (5.4) . . . . -1.9 0.2 2.4 (5.9)

10. SDR's 0.1 0.4 0.4 (0) . . . * 0.2 0.5 0.'5 (0)

11. Errors and omissions -0.4 -1.8 -0.1 (0) . . . * -0.6 -2.3 -0. 1 (0)

12. Sum 7-11 +1.7 +5.4 +10.7 +15.3 . . . . +2.8 +6.8 +12.4 16.6

a) increase:-

Source and footnotes: Appendix tables 3.1 -3.4

15. The widenine resource gap was lareelv financed by a growing inf1owof foreign aid (transfers and net capital movements) mainly from France andFED and a substantial drawdown of foreign reserves largelv acctmiilated duringthe years 1966-70. Thus net foreign assets dropped from CFAF 10.3 billionat the end of 1970 to GFAF S-8 billion in July 1Q73 or from a level of 6 to

less than 3 months' import requirements. The loss was 38% alone from July1972 to Tuly 1973.

2.4 T0rmQ of Trade

16. As aresult of favorable cocoa and coffee prices and only moderatelyrising import prices, the terms of trade improved by about 2% per year during?0966-6Q (Tabe1 4). 1---in 1970-72 however, they wosne yabu O/ each--S, lA- .L h~ ' SA LL J~' -_/, LIJ- -V L * I..LLO WItS.O -L,~ LAY aUt,lAL. I Wif CC.LI

year, largely because of both falling cocoa prices and rising import prices.The situation started to Improve only by the end of 1973. Thechngewa

- ^W 1 |W C6 |V& i: CS * U L. JoIIl V G~ I&z VZ IP^ C^X V J |Ll -_IC LLLr,= WCLO

caused by a turnabout in the world cocoa market and continuing favorablecoffee priLces -whLich mlr re thar. ou-Weig L'eA the esti-.aed i.,pr price bos of__1--... JA A. ~ WL.LLI LIli £ LLLLL IU LW..L 5 I~IL LAII ~ L..JLMOC L. ~U .LAIjLF L L. IJL 4A; LUUU. L,. U]J.

8% in 1973. Losses in foreign exchange and income from the decline of theterm.s oIf tradue were substantial. Lentative mission estimmates suggest thatfor the period 1971-73 the deteriorating effect on total income amounted toapproximately 6%1 ofL GDP.

C..U J 1 'I fyUii o UL y V±UILI .

2.5 onetary Developti.enLts

1 Th* L[ e d IeteriLoratilon of thle bua±Lance of payiiLents .led to a sizeable reduc-tion of net foreign assets in recent years (Table 5). Despite moderate creditexpansion to the private sector, the overall net domestic credit expansionrate reached high levels because of the Government's deficit spending alongwith a decline of public deposits. Tmnus, domestic credit expanded 59% in1971 and 37% in 1972 as against 21% per year on average during 1966-70.Money supply increased moderately since the expansionary effects of domesticcredit were partly compensated by the drawdown of foreign reserves.

18. Effective January 29, 1973 the BCEAO raised the basic discount rate,established in May 1962, from 3.5% to 5%, and the interest rate structure wasmodified accordingly. So far this adjustment has had no discernible effectson savings and other deposits, partly because the observation period has beenrather short. More importantly, however, interest rates on internationalfinancial markets meanwhile rose to levels which by far exceeded the relativelymodest discount rate increase.

19. Besides four commercial banks, a number of public and semi-publicinstitutions are active in banking and/or development financing. The BTDcontinued to invest primarily in housing but recently became more active inlending to industry and handicraft. The agricultural credit institution(CNCA) faces a number of problems which are discussed elsewhere (para. 43).The national investment fund (SNI) started operation only recently and adetailed evaluation is not yet possible. The Agricultural Marketing andPrice Stabilization Agency (OPAT), the Social Security System (CNSS), andthe National Savings Institution (CNE) also provide development financing.

Talble 41: Terms of trade 196-73

average annualIndices _ _ _ _ _ _ exransion rate (%)

] 9 1-;67 1 1970 1971 1972 1973 ;-70 197'1 1972

1. Export price index 100 100 104 114 118 106 1(5 120 4.3 -1C.2 -0.9 14.3

2. Import price index 100 101 :100 108 124 1:26 139 150 5.5 1. 6 10. 3 7.9

3. Terms of trade (1:2) 100 100 .104 106 95 85 76 80 -1.2 -10.5 -10.6 5 3

4. Net. price effect onextiernal payments(CFAF billion) - -0.1 O.t6 1.C -1.1 -3.5 -5.57 -6.2 .

5. Newt price effect onexternal payments(ats a % of GDP) - - 1.0 1. 4 -1.5 -4.4 -. 6.6 -6.7 .

Source: Tentative misision estimateis

Table 5 : Monetary developments 1966-74

average annual growth rate(%) as a perec iac, oI GDPCFAF billion (year end figures) -

1966 70 71 72 73 6/7 1966-70 71 72 73 1966 70 71 72 73

1. Foreign asisets (net), 4.'7 10.3 10.1 8.0 6.i 14.1 22.') - 2.1 -20.7 -23.8 8.8 14.0 12.7 9.3i 6.6

2. Credit to Covernment -2.0 - 4.7 -3.15 -2.3 -1.8 -2.4 24.0 -23.4 -:36.1 -21.7 -3.8 -6.4 -4.5 -2.7 -2.O

3. Credit to private sector 3.7 8.3 9.4 10.2 13.3 14.8 22.5 13.3 8.5 13.0 7.0 11.3 11.8 11.9 1 4h4

4. Total assets (1+2+3) 6.4 13.9 15.9 15.9 17.6 26.5 21.5 14.4 0 10.7 12.0 18.9 20.1 18.5 19.1

5. Money 5.7 10.2 11.9 11.8 11.6 l8.1 15.7 16.7 -0.8 -1.,7 10.7 13.9 15.0 13.8 12.6

6. Quasi-money 0.2 2.5 2.2 2.1 4.3 4.2 88.0 -12,,0 .4.5 1o4.8 0.4 3.4 2.8 2.4 4.7

7. Other liabilities 0.5 1.2 1.8 2.0 1.7 4.1 24.5i 50.0 11.]1 -15. 0.9 1.6 2.3 2.3 1.8

8. Total liabilities ('5+6+7') 6.4 13.9 15.9 15.9 ]7.6 26.5 21.5 114.4 0 10.'7 12.0 18..9 20.1 18.j 19.1

Source: Appenrdix table 6.1

2.6 Price Movementts

20. The domestic nrice level -- an Pexnr3oAd hy the African and Europ-ean consumer price indices -- remained fairly stable during 1966-70 with anaveraze incrase nf nnly 1-2% per vyar (Table 6). Sinew thep however.consumer prices have soared and inflation rates have been in the neighborhoodof 7% per year. wood prices particularly hnve ri4e at rates of nearly 9%per year. The main causes of the price rise are rising import prices anddrought induced food shortages.

Table 6: T'rends in consumer prices 1966-74

Indices Average arnual expansion rate (%)

19,66 1970 197TL 1972 1L973 1974 /- 1966-70 1971 19 72 1973

1. African consumerprice index(1963 = 100) 103.5 112.5 119. 6 129.2 133.7 15 2.5 2.1 6.3 8.0 3.5

2. European consumerprice index(May 1961 = 100) 127.3 132.3 142.9 149.J4 164.7 185.1 1.0 8.C) 14.5 10.2

LL August

Source and footnotes: jkppendix tables 9.1 and 9.2

- 13 -

III. PUBLIC FINANCE POSITION

21. Thiring the first plan the public finance position improved markedlythanks to the economic boom of those years and the austerity policy until196R8 Curirent ,reauneiiQ raos at almnat twice t-he 'nP expansion rnteo and e-

ceeded current expenditure growth (Table 7). Capital budget outlays remained£1t_ a low 1 ova l eve n l S ibdgetary eAvincsc namount-ing to 1Q% of cuvrrent revenus or

2.1% of GDP, improved the Government's liquidity position. Government depositsrose at an annual average rate of 24%. Moreover, the Agricultural Marketingand Price Stabilization Agency (OPAT) achieved substantial trading surpluseswhich provided additIo-al para-fiscal savings.

3.1 Curren.t 1.eve,ues

22. Current revenues contInued to rise in 1971/72 at an average rate of16%, close to that of the years 1966-70 (Table 7). The revenue growth wasachieved .ainly because preJvilous tax mL.easures sr to generate additionalrevenues (for instance, an increase of sales taxes on domestic production, con-s-,,ption, and in.terL.ational traLe; taaation of OPATlI. 's profits; iJLJproved taxcollection; and expiration of tax holidays). While foreign trade taxes stillaccount for r,-.ore than 6%/ of G- ver.LLIenL1t r eeipts, tLh-e recent rever.ue growtLL1

occurred chiefly in direct taxation, indirect taxation on domestic transactions,anud r,on-tax GoverUl-nenLt 1inLcome. Tlius, overa'Ll taxat'Lon .Lncreaseu Lirom aUbout11% of GDP in 1966-70 to 14-15% in recent years.

23. The major impact of the recent economic deterioration on public fin-ance occurred -- after a certain time lag -- in 1973. Preliminary estimatesfor the first 10 months of 1973 suggest a drop in revenues in the neighborhoodof 18%, while the 1973 budget still projected a growth of about 9%. Apparent-ly, economic conditions deteriorated more rapidly in 1973 than anticipated.The revenue shortfall was a major reason for the drawdown of public reserves.OPAT's financial position deteriorated as well, in line with worsening termsof trade and declining exports (para. 42).

3.2 Current Expenditure

24. Following relaxation of the austerity policy in 1968/69, current ex-penditure growth accelerated. Expenditure outlays rose from an annual averageof 9% of GDP in 1966-70 to 12-13% in recent years. Personnel expenditure(wages and salaries) which accounted for more than 50% of current outlays wasamong the most dynamic factors. The last general salary increases took placeJanuary 1, 1971 and January 1, 1974 and were 10% each. The recent boost ofthe wage bill, therefore, is not primarily the result of general pay increasesor lenient promotion policies but the consequence of an increase in the numberof Government personnel (Table 8). During 1970-73 the number of Governmentemployees rose at an annual average rate of about 18% as against nearly 7%per year in 1966-70. Prima-facie, this upsurge seems difficult to justifyeconomically, but the mission is not in a position to make a detailed

Table 7: profile of Pubtlic Fina-ce 1966-75 ~

- - E--'AFbilliut. Ae. Bugtdaa ---- 5Lpirc-:I of GDP ____- ..42r4 annual erwi __t_____

12~~ 35k2 1964 1969 5)1 ~~~~~~~jfl 1972 19~~~t. ~~ t. *U-3lOw Ju 72/ )Budget Bde ugt Budget1966 1567 19613 1~69 L97U lm 1~72 15,72 1 97 1 193- 12 197197=j 1973 22,(, S2C 197 1971 1572 W

t M7 1972 197' 1974 1975

C.-.,,t .5 5.6 62 7.5 9? lo.5, 3.1 Eq -1 0. 12. ~ 1.4 I,',.3 30.5 11 .3 1 -.2 i5.2 i4.5 15.9 32,.0 6.i 2t,.4 -14.1 23.0 4.9 21.6 87. 1

W-t .. P.ndi L- h6 4.7 5. i 7. h 10.7") 7. I 7. ,I .6 1(. 1 11.2 14. 8 70, 9 g9.3 I11. 1 12.1 1313.2.612.6 .19.1 23.0 I1,.6 7.22 22.6 I36.1 21.33 41.2

3. Curret bolon- (1-2) 2.9 0.9 0.7 1.3 2.5 1.6 2.! 2.6; 2.1 . 1A .,6 I., 1.31 9.6 2.0 1.0 2.0 1.3_. 1

6. Capital budget.upeo,ditur 1.2 1.1 1.0 o.6 0.9 '.5 2.9 2.6 1.0 1.5 I 3.6 1.2 1. 9.6 6. 36 13

5. Cverllbaoe(-) -0.3 -0.1 -. 0.6 *1.t~ -2.0 -0.6 2 .1 -1.7 1 (J 0 1 0a. -2.6 -0.6 0 . . .

a)ouh f7 guru, -uept cte-i-e s~tatd

b) tentative fte-i- oti-ote-

tnreroanud feeteeten,: Appe,din tcal-c 5.1 ae,d 5.?

Table 8: Development of Government Personnel, 1966 74

Thousands of emplo,;ees _average armual. growth rate %1966 1970 19173 1974 1966-70 1970-73 1974

1. Administrative servicesincluding defense 2.7 2.8 5i.5 6.1 1.0 25.2 10.'9

2. Economic services 2.4 3.5 5i.0 5.3 9.9 12.6 6.0

3. Social services 3.0 4.2 6.8 7.5 8.8 17.4 10.3

4. Total 8.1. 10.5 17.3 18.9 6.7 18.L 9.2

Source: Data proviied. by Togolese authori.tieF!.

evaluation on the basis of available information. The Government may, how-ever, wish to review its personnel policy and manpower needs in iight of thefinancial implications and in relation to Government functions. In the 1974budget the Government planned an overall increase in employees of 9.2%0, buteconomic services received few new recruitments. In view of the recurrentnature of most personnel expenditures, these outiays introduce an eiement orinflexibility into public finance, especially during periods of economic slow-down. increased salary rates in 1974, combined with the overstafrlng willboost budgetary allocations further. If continued unchecked, this. developmentcould hamper efforts to curb current expenditure growth and to make fiscalpolicy in the future more flexible.

25. The recent expenditure growth appears primarily due to higher averageoutlays for social services, particularly education and public health. Themission has not sufficient information to evaluate the merits of these in-creases from the point of view of development priorities. Further analysisis needed to determine, for example, which types of health care -- preventiveor curative -- benefited more from tihe higher budgetary allocations and whichtypes of education received the bulk of the higher appropriations. Generalservices and debt service payments also absorbed increasing proportions ofpublic expenditure. On the other hand, appropriations for agriculture remain-

ed at a low level of only 6% of total expenditure. In view ot the dynamismof expenditure growth, the Government may wish to review expenditure policiesin line with development priorities, including the planning of recurrent costs-in order to achieve a high degree of fiscal flexibility. Recurrent costs forschools and hospitals, for instance, tend to be quite high.

3.3 Budgetary Savings and Liquidity Position

26. Average annual budgetary savings amounted to 2.1% of GDP or about19% of current revenues during 1966-70. Tentative estimates suggest thatthis level was generally maintained in recent years even though 1973 figuresare likely to show a marked decline for this particular year.

27. The overall cash balance which showed a cumulative surplus ofCFAF 1.8 billion during 1966-70 became negative in the following years primar-ily due to significantly higher capital budget outlays. The cumulative deficitfor 1971-73 is estimated to be roughly CFAF 4 billion. The annual cash deficitswhich probably exceeded 10% of current revenues on average, inevitably reducedthe Government's liquidity position.

28. Government deposits which rose at an annual average rate of 24%during 1966-70 fell sharply in 1971-73 (Table 9). They declined from a peakof CFAF 4.7 billion at the end of 1970 (47% of 1970 revenues) to CFAF 1.4billion in October 1973 (10% of 1973 budgeted revenues). Treasury depositsof semi-public agencies such as OPAT, Pension Fund, and Postal System declinedfrom CFAF 3.3 billion in 1970 to CFAF 1.7 billion in 1972.

Table 9: PubFlic Sector liquidity Indicators 1966 - 74

CFA]F billio- er and Afigures) Annual averag grwth rate (<)T!=T1970 19 71 1972 1973197 1_977 197]. 197 2 1977

1. Governnent netdeposits (monetary survey) 2.0 h.7 3.6 2.3 1.8 2.4 2L.0 -29.1l -R6.i -21.7

2. Treasury assets 2.6 5.7 4.4. 3.1 .. 22.0 -29. .

3- Deposits oJr semi-publicagencies with treasury(treasury :Liabilities) 2.6 3.3 1.3 1.7 * * -60.6 +30.7

/1 June

Source: Appendix tables 5.4 and 6.1

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3.4 Public Investment and Its Financing

29. The Government's capital budget provides only a small proportionof total public investment financing. During 1966-70, budgetary sourcesamounting to an average CFAF 1 billion per year (1.5% of GDP) financed 20.9%of total public investment (Table 10), while OPAT's contribution amounted to8.6%. Capital budget expenditures rose significantly in 1971-73, however,reaching an estimated CFAF 3 billion per year or roughly 3% of GDP. A largepart of these appropriations was used to finance infrastructure investmentsin Lome. In the absence of greater budoetary savings, the domesticallyfinanced investment boom led to substantial cash deficits and to a deteriora-tion of the Government's liquidity positioni.

30. Total public investment amounted to about CFAF 24 billion or about7.8% of GDP during 1966-70. The bulk of public investment, i.e. almost 70%,was financed from external sources (Table 10). Principal contributors wereGermany (30% of foreign financing), FED (27%), and France (19%). The majorpart of public investment was earmarked for infrastructure (57%) whiledirectly productive investments accounted for only 29% (rural development18%; industry and trade 11%). Administrative and social services projectsabsorbed 6% and 8%, respectively, of investment funds. Complete figuresfor more recent years are not yet available, but partial data indicate acontinued emphasis on infrastructure including administrAtive/social serviceinvestments vis-a-vis directly productive investments. Both the Governmentand OPAT 1/ spent only small amounts for investments in rural development(10% and 6%, respectively, of their total 1966-70 investment outlays). TheGovernment financed mainly administrative and infrastructure projects (63%of capital budget outlays), while 62% of OPAT's investment funds were channel-led into industry and trade. In view of development priorities, especiallyin agriculture, the Government may wish to review the public investmentpolicy with a view to putting more emphasis on directly productive invest-ments. A set of investment criteria could help provide the conceptual frame-work for a systematic project scrutiny.

3.5 External Public Debt

31. Public foreign debt so far has remained at a ratlher low level. Atthe end of Novemher 19731 it amounted to t&8 million or 17% of the 1973 GDP.Togo has received about 80% of its aid on a grant basis and foreign loanswere extended on nredominantlv soft terms. With a grant 1lpment nf foreignassistance exceeding 90%, debt service payments in the past have been keptat a low but moderately growing level. The debt service ratin aeraogeA 1%

in 1966-70 but increased to 5% in 1972 due to higher payments and virtuallystagnating exports. The agreement concluded in December 1973 � or the con-struction of an oil refinery foresees private British bank financing amounting

to about $25 m, iil 0 n a t _om l.me r c ifa terms.. s Foreign publlc!- and -ubicl guar-anteed debt will, therefore, increase by 37% to about $93 million or 23% ofGDP and will entail higher servince p-4entS dependi4n on the r--n.ment patern.

Not all pertinent details for this project such as financial and marketingarrangemenLts are kno-IU7nIas yet.

1/ Cf. Dara 42.

Table 10: Flablic Investnent and its Finaric , 1966-iC)

CFAF billion as a percentage of total publ.ic investmentOther Other

Sources of domestic Total. domestic Totalfinancing public domestic External public domestic External

Sectors Glovernment OPAT services financing financing Total Government OPAT services financin& finalainl Total

1. Administration 1.6 - - 1.6 - 1.6 6.6 - - 6.6 _ 6.6

2. Infrastructure 1.6 0.7 0.4 2.7 11.1 13,.8 6.6 2.9 1.6 :L.1 45.5 56.6

1. Rural 0.,5 0.1 - 0.6 3.9 45 2.0 o.4 - 2.4 16.0 18.4development

h Industry 0,,7 .1.3 - 2.0 0.5 2.5 2.9 5.3 - 13.2 2.0 10.2and trade

5. Social services 0.7 - - 0.7 1.3 2,.0 2.9 - _ 2.9 5.3 8.2

6. Total 5,.1 2.1 Cl.4 7.6 16.8 24,.4 20.9 8.6 :1.6 31.1 68.9 lOCi.o

';ource: Appeindix tabla8 2.2 a .d 2.3 3

- 20 -

TV. SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS

4.1 Agriculture

32. Agriculture is the most important economic sector employing 80% ofthe aettve nAnpIolation. Agricultural nroduc-t-s, mainlxy coca andA c-ffee, ac-

counted for 57% of recorded merchandise exports in 1972 and the sector'sestimated contribution ton GDTP 4n 19?2-73 amounted to about 38%. Agricult-rnl

production seems to have shown little, if any, progress in recent years, al-though itfl- A4,,CUI+. is df lto .make a full assessminent because of l;mited aA.. partlyconflicting statistics as well as unrecorded border trade. Developments in

., r-I mi~marketed cash crop production are shlLo-wn in Annex TabUL et. -) .ine recent unfavor-able development stems from a number of factors including (a) poor weather condi-tions, (b) lac'. ol project identification andU preparatiLon, (c) iInsuff'c i LcLentLyattractive producer prices, (d) low level of investment and current expendi-'Lures, andu (ke) Istituti6n71a'L Ud1iffiCUltLieS.

A. L Lcu±Lura e:-porLs n-ave teLHeU to stagniate Udespite sizeablleannual fluctuations that were mainly due to changes of world market pricesandiU vaLy' ng levels of UJo UuUestjLc production anu border traue Aftlex TaDbLe I .).

The value of cocoa exports has continued to drop since 1970 because of decliningvolume and deteriorating prices. Coffee production decreased from about14,000 t in 1969-70 to around 7,000 t in 1971-72 and cotton production fellfrom 10,000 t in 1967/68 to less than 6,000 t in 1972/73. Estimates forfood crop production which account for 75% of total agricultural output areparticularly weak. Partial indications suggest that food crop productionis below the level of past estimates and that an adequate supply of domesticfoodstuffs is likely to become a growing problem unless increased effortsare made (para. 37). A foodcrop project is being prepared in the MaritimeRegion for which Bank Group financing is sought. The nutritional level invarious parts of the country does not reach FAO minimum requirements, and acontinuation of the existing trend would tend to reinforce regional disparities,especially in the Maritime and Kara regions where scarcity of tillable landis a constraint and in the Savanna region because of the lack of rainfall(Table 11).

34. During the first plan (1966-70) agricultural production in realterms increased by an estimated 3 to 4% per year. The second plan (1971-75)calls for an annual average increase of 6.5% in constant prices. However,on the basis of preliminary indications and projected development for theremaining plan years, it is unlikely that the objectives will be met. Duringthe first plan only 18% of public investment and 6% of current expenditurewas spent for agriculture. CNCA's agricultural credit outstanding in 1973amounted to 8% of total credits extended to the private sector. Partial datafor recent years suggest that the Government has not made a major shifttowards earmarking more funds for capital and current expenditures in therural sector. The second plan foresees only 13% of total public investmentto be allocated to this sector.

Table 11: Selected Agricultural and Regional Indicators

Maritime PlateaUx Ce,ntral Kara Savane

(1) Population (1000) 747 491 32.0 240 250

(2) Density (persons/Km2) 123 28 1,9 53 29

(3) Area (1000 Nmr2) 6.1 17.5 1.7.1 4.5 8.

(4) Rainfall (mm) 850 - 1000 1200 - 1600 12C0 - 1500 14oc) 10(0 - 1100

(5) Average cropped areaper farm (ha.) 1.40 1.70 2.20 0.81 4.00

(6) Estimated per capitaincome of rural population(1000 CFAF:1969) 15 22 14 6 9a

(7) Main crops - manioc - coroa - yan - millet - millet- maize - cof'fee - sorghum - sorghum - sorghum

- maize- manioc- yam

(8) Major problems - popu:Lation pressure - stagnation of cocoa, - insufficient - overpopulation - irregular rainfall- decliLning soil coffee and cotton water availability - depletion of hilly - possible food

fertility production due to low water soils shortage- land tenure problems table - food supply - irregular population

density(9) Potential - food crops - cocoa-coffee-cotton - land available - low agricul.tural - land available with

- food crosp with good agricujltural potentiaL good potentialpotential

(10) Proposals - food crops project - cocoa/coffee project - planification - RDF - increased research - animal traction

- regeneration of - intensification cotton/- migration programs for intensification - small scale"terres de barre" food crops - intensification and millet, sorghum, irrigation (RDF)

- rice with small - migration programs extensification cotton/ rice (RDF) - stock building policyscale irrigation food crops - migration programs for cereals

towards central andplateau

Source: Data provided by 1bgolese authorities.

- 22 -

35. Cocoa yields have been low (230-300 kg/ha) due to a lack of main-tenance and new planting, as well as to capside pest and swollen shoot attacks.However, prospects are relatively good because of favorable export prices andthe success of the SRCC campaign against capsides and swollen shoot virusdisease (SSVD). Ongoing rehabilitation actions including an IDA project shouldpermit future production increases. The IDA project will lead to a gradualincrease of cocoa production by the end of this decade (less than 1,000 t peryear). From the mid-eighties onward the expected additional production willbe 4,400 t per year 11. Average coffee yields (130-150 kg) have also beenvery small due to a lack of plantation maintenance as a result of insufficientproducer prices. The rehabilitation project with Bank Group financing willstart producing by the late seventies with less than 1,000 t output per year.By the mid-eighties the proiect will yield an additional annual production of4,800 t 2/. In view of long-term market prospects for cocoa and coffee,other planting proiects should only be undertaken after careful consideration.

36. Palm kernel and Dalm oil nroduction has suffered in recent yearsfrom marginal ecological conditions and insufficient rainfall. Local scar-cities have led to increased competition between traditional buyers and SONAPH'sAlokoegbe mill which had to operate below capacity. SONAPE's smallholdernolicyv such aA redistribution of existing Dlantations to small farmers, andoil mill expansion plans, therefore, deserve reconsideration. Copra produc-tion has ron-iderahlv dprrpnsed due to the snread of Kaincone disease. The

control of the disease would require tests for new varieties and a replantingproject of hybrids.

37. Efforts to increase cotton production have nnt been s,,rrepfun

so far mainly due to unfavorable weather conditions, lack of project prepara-tion, anA inndqte marketing arrangements. SORADs took over thp rnttnncollection from licensed buying agents by the late sixties but had insuf-ficient staff for the collection teams. These and other marketing diffi-culties caused the authorities to abolish SORADstmarketing monopoly. TheoverL,nnLent is reCkonsidUerling thI. e cotton -14-velomnpliy A new product

oriented corporation is likely to be set-up to promote cotton productionaIIU mUarL CLeIng Ull a II onLUIwiLuC uas i. . UPrLoses f4- cUottn UdeCVelopmet ar e

good in the plateau and central regions. The cultivation of cotton in rota-tiLonL with Loorops woulUd heLp pror.note si a cUash and ILAU----p produc=L

tion. A shift from general programs to centrally planned projects is neededwith area and input control and adequate organizational and marketing arrange-ments. Extension services need strengthening and producer prices should bereviewed to provide greater incenti-ve to LaLruters*. RiBk-LeuciLLg [LIeasULres LUL

farmers should include the promotion of precooperatives.

1/ The marketed production during the crop year 1971-72 was 28,200 t and18,600 t during 1972/73 (Annex Table 7.5).

2/ During 1969/70 and 1971/72, the marketed production was somewhat lessthan 14,000 t per year, but dropped to around 7,000 t in 1971/72 and1972/73 (Annex Table 7.5).

- 23 -

38. Prospects for intensified cultivation of hybrid maize varietiesare good, in particular in rotation with cotton. SorRhum and millet yieldsare low (about 0.7 t/ha). The development of high yield American sorghumvarieties raises marketing problems because of different consumption (taste)patterns. Prospects for yield increases are subject to systematic varietytrials and genetic improvements. Manioc is mainly cultivated with inter-cropping in the southern part of the country. Yields seem to have decreasedin the Dast due to an overexploitation of soi]s. The Govprnment rpepntlvraised producer prices which led to a substantial increase in the supply ofmanioc. The starch factorv at Ganave which in the nast haR workpd hplnw

capacity is now operating close to full capacity. Better capacity utiliza-tion combined with hioher outnut nrices have helnpd imnrove the fartory's

financial situation.

39. The slow development of livestock is due to pathological problems(trvnAnn4rani:Aic ann nPerpnnnTnmnni)_ corinnlrir1 conQtrniJntQ :nd nrgani7z-

tional difficulties. With the exception of the North, particularly the Savannarpaion, prospects for lIvestock development are restricted. Experience withpilot projects for animal traction was not encouraging except for a projectin the _A_.U --... n- which. received BDPA assistan^^ (about 1,300 teams ofoxen in 1973). Further efforts should probably be limited to the North wherethe constraints outlined above are less stringent. Some ranching opportuni-ties also seem to exist which need further study. Togo is unable to satisfyits present and future meat demand without imports, and poss-bilities forlivestock development deserve further exploration. The construction of aslaughterhouse with cold storage fn414tjes in T Lome started recently. This

O L .8

,S.W LA5C . LtL FMO.A S b 0.. J.. J &* --- O a. t. t..L L.

project, which will cost about CFAF 0.5 billion, to be financed with FAC/CCCEass4stance, will 4i.prove 1lvestock and meat marketing

4t. TheCL rcenly est O a U..._..ec.ablihe pl .omeApan.yu, "La LL1Togol 4.aise -- TO As PV-h-

promotes semi-industrial coastal and lagoon fishing. The construction of afishing harbor and partial use of the -----s-to s l t f-ciltie

are unlikely to meet domestic demand in the near future.

41. Forest reserves in Togo are insufficient to meet present andfuture tme eur.ns A repla.tir. prora by ODE is -nde-way. B2e-I. ULL~L. LIUICL A. CLU.LL.CULCILLL.0 I L~ .Fj.LMLIL.L-L&L jJL.J

6LI.CII '. JI,K L OL.. ULLU~_LWCXY

fore undertaking larger reforestation projects, the economic and financiali_ILP 4.J.LdLL.LVLI0 __ _L JU L_ _L .LU.y ML..AU.. CU

'42. hile L..iLLILL.La.Ld posi.Lt'on of. LIh arL.LltU.LULC pric sta. bLUizt.cinLL.

and marketing agency (OPAT) has deteriorated in the- last few years. Neverthe-less, UU-e tUo a genrCall yt L. LLL. .rictVe prLoUdUCeL prc LL UA.L.k-y , it has maue tradu

ing profits ever since its creation in 1965 (Appendix Tables 7.1 and 7.4).UnLLL 173 ciIJ ..uLaVt ' Lv-te Lr.Lading surpluses am.oun.ted 'Lo about CFAFI2 I biLJ.LiLo oL

10% of Government budget revenues. Overall cocoa and coffee taxation, includ-ing OPAT's price differentials was high. Preliminary estim,ates suggest that

- 24 -

the average tax burden 1/ for the cocoa and coffee farmers was close to 50%during 1966-71. OPAT's investment nolicv which (like its nrndit-pr pricepolicies) is principally determined by the Government, has mainly favorednon-agricultural nroiects in the past (nara. 30)_. MforPnvPr OPAT nrriimiilatpdsizeable financial assets which were partly held abroad. It provided long-tPrrm IAnan tn -hp public scprtor amounting ton rPFAF A hillion nr 315; of OPAT'stotal assets as of September 1972. OPAT's financial position is likely toimnrovey again in Uie-w of the m.ore favornhal cocoa and coffee mark-t sltuaion,

and an increase of producer prices may be feasible without unduly limitingprofit growth. It would seem that OPAT's producer price and financial andinvestment policies should be better coordinated with other public sectoractivities promoting rural development.

43. The activit4es of the National Agricultural Credi4- Tnstu-4t-u.e (CNCPA)

in the past have been limited. Total loans outstanding as of September 30,1973 ,amounted to only CFAF 0.7 billion. More than 90% of CNCA lending wasshort-term credits. CNCA suffered from a lack of experienced staff and ashortag e of funds on terms com.ensurOate with ngriculturnl ln 5 .otions.

A new management was recently appointed. Most of CNCA's credits were chan-neiled t,.o t,h".e fas. er- t-h,1rough +the, SODATJS which. act.ed as finan.ial inte....ediare.L

This cooperation has not proved satisfactory so far. Defaults and arrearswere reportedly 11high -a CNCA's fn4-1ania -4sitionA-4-f de oate. Tn 10972

16% of CNCA's portfolio consisted of overdue debts. CNCA's collection per-form.ance hnas lbeen poor, particularly for seaso --- al and muaki loans which

should generally not be difficult to recover. A reform of the agriculturalcredit system, seems necessLary, nLL part icular, the_ r o between T.1A

and the SORADs, such as the division of responsibilities, the supply of

a'*qu' I fncialt.UVI rsources 0 aAL C' CL LL. cICLLLr,LLLLIL L I ON C Ld

44. Te Gover.-uent Lhas recent'ly taken 1 .I.A th intatv Lto Lattac sevteral

urgent agricultural problems.

(i) It has created a number of product-oriented public corpora-Lions to nelp promote particular crops sucn as coffee,cocoa, oil palm, cereals, and fruits. It established SONAPHIin 1968 to promote palm oil production, and the company hasbenefitted from financial assistance from FED for its plan-tation programs. SONaPH seems well managed but its pro-

motion program has encountered some difficulties (para. 36).SRCC, responsible for cocoa and coffee development, wascreated in 1971 with financial and technical assistancefrom FAC. SRCC's performance has been, and continues to begood. Management and staff are efficient and FAC grants havehelped keep its financiai position sound. Other corporations --ODEF for forestry, Togofruit for fruits, Togograin for cereals,

1/ Export taxes and OPAT levies, i.e. difference between the actual exportprice and OPAT's total cost price: producer price plus export taxesand OPAT 1PviPcs.

-25 -

and Togolaise des Peches for fisheries -- started operation onlyrecently and a comprehensive assessment is not yet possible.It appears that staffing and financing need to be reviewed andprobably improved. Moreover, the proliferation of developmentagencies has tended to create institutional difficulties likedivision of responsibility! especially with the SORADs.

(ii) The Government set up a special rural Dlanning unit in theI4inistry of Rural Economy, staffed with Togolese and foreignexperts. to strengthen the central administrative services,to prepare projects, and thus to increase absorptive capacityin agriculture.

(iil) Some nroducer Drices. for instance, for cocoa, coffee. eround-nuts, and cotton, were moderately raised for the crop years1972/73 and 73/74 (Annex Table 7.1). The increaRes were lessthan 10%, except for coffee. The coffee producer price whichrpmainpd umnchanged from 1967/68 till 1971/72 was raised by about7% in 1972/73 and 12% in 1973/74, but the present price of CFAF90/kg is still quite lowl

(iv) The Gover.nment has initiated measuirpe to make ideipr uise offertilizers. A first program to provide subsidized fertilizersto farmers has been nreparard and the implementation shoulstart during the crop year 1973/74. Total fertilizer subsidyfor 1973/74 -4ill be about CFrA 38 million.

(v) Th-e Govern.ent, with f .o.r. techni-cal assistance, ha- madeefforts over the last couple of years to come to grips withlan. tenure problems. which constitute a -i-aj ----tran forvirtually any expansion programs such as migration andsettlCment scheres. In January 1974 a land tenure 'law wasadopted. It stipulates, among other things, that non-cultivatedland b-elongs lo -le "National Land Tnheritance" tv rilon.L I U J.UL6 L U L i C1 10 U_ LULO " Ottb Li Lt L .1. LIL%C \ S. LOIUt iti)LILC

Foncier National") and can no longer be claimed by privatesiLng'le or collective owners. Thls la*w ,ee-S to prvid abasic precondition for the preparation of migration settle-ment scheme wLichL in ' tuL ai 'CxLea Lt oJV L L C iur. u CdeVe:L -

ment,potential, especially in the overpopulated Kara andflOLiUL.LL. LtRLUiLCyMarti,. regLiorouncnsrsns.r

45. Major problerms still exist in agriculture. Various constraints areof a structural nature and, therefore, particularly difficult to overcomesuch as regional.soil erosiLon andU overpopulation, rural exouus, anu non-utilization of water and land resources in the North because of riverblind-ness. Since about half oL thne arable land is not yet cultivated, opportuni-ties seem to exist, for instance, for resettlement schemes to alleviatepartial overpopulation and soil erosion and to heip acnieve a more baianced

- 26 -

regona,-rl Adevelop,~ment. Theo (2rvirrnmont f1iiilru ti-ne advnntage nf tho npocslbili-

ties to increase the production of cotton to be cultivated in rotation withfood crops. In this way, agr4 culturnl production and exonrts -an be diversi-fied and the supply of foodstuffs improved. Special efforts are needed topromote food cr.oprui in orde 4mprove tho 14vin c 4to4ndi4on flarge segments of the rural population. To this end, the authorities aretakn 1 toc S- f regona requre..et to- prpr a ,.ajo inputfor arraLO..1Lng L'W..JN Ut 3. C_6.LVLLCX.L LK. C.J-s.L -,LI.IO U. L.. FJ. t.-,aA -. a .ntj -s -LV-A LJ CLSI.a

development fund project. Such a project could be a useful multiregionalcomwpl>IeLent to rehabUi.Li.tLaLC.LUiL prLUog.ams for c.ash. crFo w--icLL *-i-...y

fined to limited areas such as the Plateaux Region. Further progress inrural UeveveLopiLt ie s aLso depe..dent or improvemLLents in .1hle organizationalsetup. The institutional problems seem complex and sensitive and it may be

wor L1W1Li~ LUUU Ld11 L~UV4.~ J.L Pd.L L.L%LU±L UJrL 6

O12Lt.~CL.L~ susworthwhl tLLC o Vobta_in expUert advice for partcula organizationalissues.

'460. Tentati-veLy, the UmissiUS on suggests focusing furLe. LL aa lysis othe following points: (a) reinforcing the (central) services of the Ministryof Rural Development to establish and control develoPment priorities for pro-jects and programs; (b) gradually converting SORADs -- which to date have notbeen a particularly effective mediuml for development 1/ __ into regional agri-cultural executing agencies for well-defined and monitored projects; (c)linking SORAD financing to specific project imL1plemen.tation; (d) fosteringcommunication between SORADs and central services in a feedback system thathelps identify projects.

47. Some other fields deserve, in the mission Zl view, high priorityin the Government's agricultural policy.

(i) Agricultural credit needs improvement (para. 43). Arrangementsfor providing farm credit under the IDA coffee/cocoa projectare designed to help CNCA develop the expertise needed tocarry out its role;

(li) Producer prices for export and food crops should be increasedin view of the following: the virtual stagnation of mostproducer prices in the past few years despite rising inflationrates, the need to raise production incentives and rural incomes,the current and expected export prices for major cash crops,and the level of OPAT reserves. An increase appears particularlynecessary br coffee and cotton;

(ii±±j Hiigher appropriations for agriculture will be necessary toprovide funds for a probably increasing number of projectsto be identified and prepared with the help of the newlyestablished planning unit in the Ministry of Rural Economy.Special emphasis should be given to the adequate financingof programs to increase the absorptive capacity in rural areas.This would include feeder roads, wells, sanitary control, otherbasic infrastructure, and agronomic research and studies.

1/ Causes for the failure are many, but a shortage of trained manpower,inadequate direction, poor project and program formulation, and limitedfinances have been significant constraints.

- 27 -

4.2 Sprnndary Sector

48 The scorndary Tnrntr i9 still small in matrn-pronnmir term hiut has

been growing rapidly. Its expansion rate in recent years exceeded GDP growth.Phosphate production increased unabatedly while construction activitiec claweddown as the Government curtailed public investments. Power generation continuedto rise (Appendix Table 8.1). Some rinsitries with an ineastin Admand are

flourishing, e.g. the brewery, and some were able to overcome initial diffi-culties, e.g. textiles. Other industries are encountering marketing problem,ls(marble processing) and raw material supply shortages (food processing indu,,s-tries) A 4flour mill started oerai4on n4 ear 1074 and a -nning factory.A.JtL lLL.A 0.0 -. - - -_T -II- " --L "Lt EltbC.1 .7

for tomato and pineapple juices as well as some smaller projects in the in-A.. oae _ 4 ..1 ({ an ArA a'% .,r a nP *h 19 Tm nnA _t in _A at in ttAn Cnl, s9r 9A 4.,? nfl? ocSO1. .LO E.L G_ 1.Ot\ a. S 1L W ~ 1. L L Clto z.V._k01. FLA L aOS P. 1 .J. _LaLoM

particular problems in view of the small size of the domestic market.

49. The Government's industrialization policy is directed towardsthIree pri9nciLpa'L obJeclCives : promotion of sml.L- an .A.. edli-sizeA ind A genousenterprises; processing of domestic agricultural products and exploitationo mler__rsure an A . . u--on ..:_ or_ _1ca _A __ A_U-A. Iu 'LL C L 1UUUL >, dIU LMFU LU L E.LLL ±LXIL U L tUl>8l0UIl.A X ULL rVUU,D.

In the past few years, the Government established various institutions topromote small- and [mUedium-sized 'Loca±l businesses. I;t has crae a naL.ional.promotion center, as well as a participation and guarantee fund within theSLNI. Lt bUorrowed recent'Ly fLror GermaLny andU the USOVA (thie 'Latter thlroughl tLhIe

Conseil de l'Entente) to finance small business projects through the BTD.The promnotion program is still 'In an ear'Ly experimental stage. LLe resuLts

in terms of creation or expansion of indigenous enterprises have not appearedsatisfactory thus far.

50. New investments were made in phosphate mining to increase annualproduction from the present 2 million torts to about 2.4 million tons by1974/75. For this expansion CTKb obtained a loan of CFAF 375 million fromADB through the BTD. CTMB's sales and profits developed favorably duringthe past few years (Appendix Table 8.2) and market prospects for phosphateare favorable (para. 58). Implications, if any, on CTMBts activities, resul-ting from the February l974 nationalization, need to be further assessedwhen all pertinent details are known.

51. The Government is considering a few major capital-intensive indus-trial projects. First, the CIMAO ciinker project would enable the Governmentto exploit substantial domestic limestone resources (thus diversifying theeconomy and foreign exchange sources) and to foster regional cooperation il.

1/ CIMAO's total cost, including infrastructure, is now estimated at around$125 million. The proiect consists mainly of a clinker plant nearTabligbo with an annual capacity of 1.2 million tons to process highaualitv limestone recently discovered near Sika Kondii. The operationwould be jointly sponsored by the Togolese and Ivorian Governments anda private promoter.

- 28 -

The same may be true for a second oroiect. a DhosDhate-based fertilizerfactory, but it is still in preparation and a more detailed evaluation isnot yet possible. Thirdly, in December 1973 the Government sif'npd contrnPt-tfor the construction of an oil refinery with an annual capacity of about 1.0million tons of crude (annroximatelv 0.9 million tons of refinerrv nroduits)to become operative by 1977. The refinery will be constructed by Britishfirms and managed diirinc the first 10 vears hv 2 US company= Tts oitniut-- except initially minor domestic sales -- will be sold by a German firmon the CGrman markpt Private Briti.cd-i banksq wi11 nrnuirlp finanring nmountingto approximately $25 million. Total investment costs including infrastructureare estimated at about $36 million. PTosiblp sotirces of cruide nil sipply arpNigeria, Libya, and Algeria. Lack of data such as input and output pricesdo not permit an evaluation of the nronierts eronomic Justificatin._

4A3 Trancnnrt

52. Trnspor invesmentshave rmaine at ahigh lve and accoun_efor about 40% of total public investment during 1966-70. Large outlays arebeing planned for the extension of the LTme deep water port with -- , rn - n-d-

FED financing, and for the paving of the main north-south axis that linksTogo and Upper Volta with fundi-ng fro TIDA, FED), .an PAC. According to

present planning, the 680 km highway running from Lome to the Voltaic borderwill be Ifully paved 4n the second part -f thl4s decade and oTme and Owill then be connected by a paved highway. Further road investments are

being ~ _F_ plne ooe p ne-w areas for agricultural dvlp.etadt r,rvcommunications in the interior of the country. Since road transport accountsLi OLiJt C U. * tV0 Vi 1 U Et j C. L L.. LA. at i. ti. LL. Ut)V V CL ILLILCLL < L at d LC LXLIc fit EU ,s L LU ;Y LU

the extension and upgrading of the highway system.

53. The financial position of the Togolese Railway (CFT) is deteriorat-ins and3 ICua oprain dfcits hvreur .overrct,ent subsidiesar,ut£LLL- Ii CLILLUIUdL UJJULCtL.UL[ Ut-I.LLL lve £ CLULIUL ~U %, J1 UI~i UJ LUJ.t:! dILLUUILL

ing to CFAF 100 million each in the 1973 and 1974 budgets. The GovernmenthasL LorIU,ILA.iiLo ned aLu LuUy to aaliye rod vrsus r ai L Ctway tLranp LLSort[. Thib

analysis has not yet been completed. The implementation of the CIMAO projectis likely to require a partial rehabilitation and texpanbsi of the railway

system.

4.4 Education 1/

54. The Government has made substantial efforts to expand the educationsystem. Wnile the adult literacy rate is estimated to be still 10%, primaryschool enrollment increased from 36%o irn 1965 to about 56% in 1972. TheUniversity of Lome was inaugurated in 1972. French and German aid is beingsought for a large expansion of the University. Education expenditures haveincreasingly been absorbing.budgetary resources. They now account for nearly25% of current expenditures despite sizeable parental (and community) con-tributions which are a unique feature of Togo's education system. Since

1/ For more details, see Appendix I, pfELtlIN?ARY hEVALUATIOM OF THE EDTJCATIONSECTOR.

- 29 -

education has been a dynamic expenditure factor and recurrent cost of educa-tional investment may be high, the Government might wislh to give particularconsideration to the financial implications of reform plans. In addition togetting adequate financing, the education system should be better tailoredto the needs of the labor market. Because everyone with at least a primaryschool certificate tries to enter the wage labor market, urban unemploymentis considerable. This in turn has probably contributed to the high levelof Government recruitment. The Goverrnent has set up five reform cormissionsto study the problems and work out basic reform proposals.

55. In view of the ongoing internal discussions it is not yet possibleto evaluate the reform program under consideration. The following tentativeobservations, however, may serve as a starting point for a dialogue withTogolese autlhorities: If the present system continues to develop basicallyas it has, its elitist character is likely to be preserved. Meanwhile, themajority of students would continue to receive a sub-standard primaryeducation of little use in the rural environment or in gaining access tourban wage employment. Education expenditures would tend to absorb growingproportions of the budget. It seems on the other hand that if the Governmentintends to achieve its stated objectives of adapting its education systemto economic. social, and cultural realities, the following points deservefurther consideration:

(i) There might be merit in designing a structural reform.Traditiona1 and modern eetments could be combined into asystem limiting the time between leaving school and enteringthe lahnr fnrCe which iusul1v ocrurs at age 13-1= Ex-perimentation with this concept is already starting inother Western Afrnifric countrles, e .i with emm.i t-ty xin

education initially in the national languages, involvingaduil ts of ther conm.m;nity, andr reinfov-,rce ai t!1- educational

radio broadcasts. The majority of school leavers wouldremain in tile traditionnal- sctor, -n whi lo a Tminor-ityv would0be selected for further study according to modern sector needs.Possihle uanritonns nn tt-ii qtrricture are discussed in

more detail in Appendix I.

(ii) The Government may wish to consider that an improvementin teacher qualifications under presant conditions -- anaverage of 60 students per class -- will necessarilyincrease cOStS, but hardly learn4ng. TnetQA -- m 4t- 4 -a

should be encouraged to further recruit on a contractual basis"mor.itur sA- de v1- whose teacning qu-a'lfi.at4 ons could bIe

improved through short teacher training. A reinforcementof eAucatlonal andA am,m nistrative superv-ion and an adu..atesupply of teaching materials would improve overall teachingeff icency;

- 30 -

(iii) A precondition for the use of national languages in educationis applied researcn in sucn fields as linguistics, ethnology,and oral traditions, and the transformation of this researchinto educational materials;

(iv) investments in education should be increasingjy related todevelopment activities to minimize the risk of students'aspirations created by broadened educational opportunitiesbeing frustrated by the lack of corresponding environmentalchange. Moreover, the school year should be synchronizedwith the regional agricultural cycle;

(v) Decisions on any reform proposals should be made onlyafter priorities and financial implications (capital andrecurrent costs) have been evaluated.

(vi) Timing may be one of the most critical elements, particularlyfor the development and production of educational materials,for teacher (re)training, and for preparing the partiesinvolved to understand and accept the reforms.

4.5 Tourism

56. Development of tourism in and around Lome, and to a minor degreein the interior of the country, is being financed by large amounts of publicfunds. The Tropicana tourist complex on the "Togolese Riviera" east of Lomewas completed in December 1972. It consists of 200 bungalows with 400 bedsand other tourist facilities and provides jobs for about 200 people. Mostof the financing of the CFAF 800 million investment cost was secured fromOPAT which holds 83%/o of the capital of "Societe Touristique du Togo," theowner of Tropicana. 1.3% of the share capital was subscribed by a Germantourist company which also provided technical assistance. A 250-bed deluxehotel in Lome was opened in fall 1974. Further hotel and other touristdevelopments are being studied by Togolese authorities and foreign promoters.The results of a comprehensive LJNDP-financed study on the tourism sector andits prospects should help review sector policies, including investment priori-ties and appropriate financinR schemes.

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V. DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS

5.1 Overall Prospects 1974-85

57. In the absence of the next Five Year Development Plan (1976-80)anti in vitw nf the laerk nf rel- ant diata nn likelv mqinr strucm'ttiral rhanges

of the economy, the following mission projections are necessarily of anl1ittztrAtI1'Y naturie. An attermnt ha hbeen mndAA ton In.-mnAto in the pro -

jections major effects of the implementation of the CIMAO project and theoil refinery 4t nthe scond half of the dadeAo, as well as thp rTMR rnmpnasA-

tion payments to foreign ex-shareholders. Because of the hypothetical natureof a large n m-ber of assumptions at this stage, as well as -- the ords of mmag-nitude involved for crucial projection parameters, and the structural changesto bDe exected, a particular word of caution is ..eesssar; re g arding tbeinterpretation of the highly tentative estimates. 1/

5.2 Tentative Balance of Payments Projections - 1974-85

58. The trend of deteriorating terms of trade reversed slightly in 1973(Table 12), but i8 expected to s-ow- ar, ur,preceente' irv o ore -.han100% in 1974/75 mainly because of tripling of phosphate prices. A high exportprice level is likely to be maintained in subsequent years wLtih a mouest irr-crease towards the end of the decade. In expectation of continuing highworldwide inflation rates, 'nowever, export prices in reai terms are bound todecrease. 2/ The terms of trade will start to deteriorate in the second halfof this decade by about 4% per year primarily as a result of rising importprices. Still, by the end of the seventies the terms of trade are projectedto be about 50% higher than the 1966-70 level. However, a further deteriora-tion is likely to occur in the first half of the 1980s.

59. Chiefly as a result of improved terms of trade, the balance of pay-ments will become more favorabie in the next few years (Table 13). Phosphateproduction and exports will expand while agricultural exports, particularlycocoa and coffee, will increase only moderately in the seventies since rehabili-tation and expansion programs will not come into full operation until theeighties. Unrecorded border trade, which used to tluctuate substantially,introduces an additional element of uncertainty into the foreign trade pro-jections. In the second half of the decade exports of refinery products andclinker are likely to begin which would permit a continuing high export growthrate.

I/ (TMA' 4iinmi*mavi4- alnieia mnnty curirezntly Aonimt for moreh thnn 25% of CMP

150% of gross domestic investment, and 200% of budgetary expenditures.

2/ Bank commodity forecasts assume an increase of international (import)prices of 14% in 1974, 10.9% in 1975, 7.45% in 1976-80, and 6% in 1981-85.Our tentative projections are in current prices which assume an average4% domestic annual price increase (except for exports and imports).

Table 12: flustrative Nission Projectionr: T'erlms of Trade, 1974415

Indices ___ Average A,nnua]L Exiansion Rates ()iU 19'70 1972 1]973 1977F 19 9 196670 0 70-N7N2 7 70-75 80 8b

1. Export Price Index 100 1:L8 105 120 339 398 438 4.3 -5s5 0.4 23.5 3.3 2.1

2. Import Price Index 100 1,24 139 150 186 266 356 5. .9 6,.5 8.5 7.5 6.0

3. Terms of Tra(le 100 95 76 80 182 150 123 -1.2 -10.0 -5.3 1.3.9 -4.0 -4.(No

r,.4F C'S;+ 1'6+ iln. t'214 S-. ro- n. * * @ ;i. lEt L* 1'ST+ L'01+ S'1+ 9ICt S'Z+ 6 9 e '01

0 ci 0 (0) 1'0- 9-0- I., 1F'1 c o * (O) CI0 -'0- SI0- 9'0- *i"wm pn *ouu '6

o C i- 0 (in S) b-2 -L~- i7-0 .SEr. l'Z 1' o (ins) I*z - rt S'0- ,/1 .. m 1T-nU1

£Ct C. at i'9 S'2 C 0 S'S 6'C S't . ,. . .e 0, ,e- £0- 6! () S'9 S'9 S'S t7'Z Nsd.a 'I9

* £9 £11 to Vi ~~~~~VI C'f SE1Fr R CO1 CO9 CCE ZO P l sqI

tt 9- S. .- I16- S'9T1 9Zt 9 e- 9P OP IT- Z1 t'- J'0- 6 '1- f - ,-* lUDq

//Vt- 0~ 5- EC- CVS, *CC- 0*C- e- Ol- L *t- ut- 6- S- £- 6-1- - -*, 9P1 SOnS 9

1'Z,- C-0- o-t- o't- O't- o V VT- 9- 0 0i1e- 0'9- t n- 60 .nl.q EL

a! L, 5; a'6 9'6t ltZ l'b I '6 l '( 9 t E'61 1' 1'9 S'Z1 /.EE 16 9 V l c C a l lsi VOw lZI *lOI Z

vlot - Z' It£t SI'St 1'02 9'tZ O'9 tZZ C't O 91 5J S- tVU- 9'I uil Ce I' ll/ C'LI rCI iI 61 11 niodl *1

Wj5 -oflu 5f6l TiT T S Ct-oM! 0161 ZRI 10-96jt 3 oU6±1 7Z7Wi ?m f tt61 T 0r I T-9t J-a IIt

cmnO. *h iods;N B -~------tln q,AOJEI TT9,iSOxw AO - -------- -~--;10Sn¶n -

5°-:' '61 swaUn.lWJf@UlwoiiThZnaofoa UI'S 34l .AIiA,sr.flSIIYlT an

- 34 -

60. Imports, however, will rise significantly particularly for theconstruction. an-d operation of the OTIArO plant and the 04il refinery, inluinrelated infrastructure, thus reducing considerably the balance of tradeeffect of th.. Lese .wo projects. O .L.Lj.FLJS- , WhLLL..Ll acLcUULnteU LJo UoL.ly abutL

5% of merchandize imports in 1972/73, will rise to about 13% in 1974/75.ThLe effects of increases in export priLces , r,otably phosphate andI coUcoa, w.ll.l

outweigh by far the direct impact of the higher oil bill.

61. The trade balance, which became increasingly negative over the lastfew years, will improve but will nevertheless remain slightly negative.Combined with the traditional service account deficit, the current accountbalance will continue to be negative. However, two aspects represent adeparture from recent balance of payment developments. First, the currentaccount deficit will become comparatively smaller (for instance, in propor-tion to GDP, exports, and imports). Secondly, and more important, the gapwill not be financed with a drawdown of reserves but with increasing foreigncapital inflows, particularly in connection with the CIMAO and the oil refin-ery projects. In the projections we have assumed an increase of foreign re-serves for the second half of the decade because reserves are currently lowand rapidly rising imports necessitate a build up or additionai runds tomaintain an adequate reserve level in proportion to imports.

5.3 Tentative GDP Projections - 1974-85

62. GDP growth is expected to accelerate in 1974/75 essentially dueto rapidly rising phosphate sales (Table 14). During 1970-75, nominal GDPgrowth is likely to rise at about 12% on average per year as against an aver-age annual rate of 8% for the 1970-73 period alone. In anticipation of fur-ther Government efforts in the rural sector, we assumed some agriculturalproduction increases in later years. With a high import content of the oilrefinery output, the GDP growth component (value added) of this projectwill be rather limited. GDP expansion in the second half of the decadeis projected to be around 8% per year and probably in the neighborhood of7% during the early eighties, or about 4% in real terms. As noted earlier,the terms of trade are likely to deteriorate in the future which will tendto restrict economic growth.

63. Outlays for investment are likely to rise substantially during therest of the decade especially in view of the CIMIAO and oil refinery projectsand as a result of increased efforts for project identification and pre-paration (Table 15). The proportion of investment to GDP is projected torise to around 19% per year during the second half of the decade as against13.4% during 1966-70. National savings are tentatively estimated to increasesignificantly after the rapid decrease during recent years; projectionssuggest a national savings rate of approximately 10-11% of GDP.

CFAF billiLon _ averaaoe annul ftrowth rate asa_ ercenta.e of GDP1966 190 172 17 1975 198' T 1966-70 1970-2 1970-73 1970-75 195 19 08 96 1970 1972 1973 1975 198 19_

1. Primary sectocr 23.3 30.2 33.3 34.6 41 60 80 6.7 5.0 4.6 6.8 8.o 5.9 44 41 39 37 31 30 29

2. Secondary sector 10.7 13.6 17.3 19.6 44 59 79 6.2 12.8 13.0 26.4 6.o 6.1 20 19 20 21 33 30 29

3. Tertiary sect:or 19.1 29.6 35.4 38.1 47 80 118 11.6 9.3 8.8 9.7 11.2 8.2 36 40 41 41 36 40 42

4. GDp 53.1 73.4 86.0 92.3 132 199 277 8.4 8.2 7.9 12.4 8.5 6.8 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

- AfriLcan conastmer price index 2.1 7.2- European consuawer price index 1.3 6.3

5. Consu-ption 45.3 64.8 77.7 86.8 112 168 2:33 9.3 9.5 10.2 11.6 8.5 9.6 85 88 90 94 85 84 84

6. Gross fixed investment 7.3 9.5, 12.6 14.0 25 32 50 6.8 15.2 13.8 21.3 5.1 9.4 14 13 15 15 19 16 18

7. Changes in stocka 1.4 1.0 2.0 2.0 0 0 0 . . . . . 3 1 2 2 1 0

8. Exporta (goods & NF';) 12.8 20.4 18.8 18.9 45 99 112 12.4 -7.8 -2.5 17.2 17.0 4.3 24 28 22 21 34 5o 44

9. Imporl:s (goods 6 NF& ) 13.7 22.1 25.1 29.5 50 100 L>8 12.9 6.1 9.8 17.6 14.9 5.1 26 30 29 32 38 5o 46

L in current prices

Table 15: Illustrative Miission Projections: Investment and SavirLgs, 1974-85

CFAF billion as a percentage of GDPaLverage? per year

1966-70 1971 1972 19,73 1975 1980 1985 1966-70 1971 1972 1973 1975 198C) L985

1. Gross domestic investment 8.4 11.4 14.6 16.0 25 32 50 13.4 14.4 16.9 17.4 18.9 16.1 18.1

2. Current account balance(goods and iservices) *-1.7 -5.4 -10.7 -15.3 -12 -11 -19 -2.7 -6.8 -12.4 -16.6 -9.1 -5.5 -6.9

3. Gross natioinal savings (1-2) 6.7 6.0 3.9 0.7 13 21 31 10.7 7.6 I4.5 o.8 9.8 10.6 1Ll.I

- 37 -

5.4 Financial Outlook

64. In line with the expected economic recovery, the outlook for publicfinance is more favorable than it has been in the past few years. In anti-cipation of the export growth and economic upswing, the Government has alreadytaken measures to increase public revenues in the original 1974 budget byCFAF 3 billion or 21.6% more than the 1973 budget, mainly by introducing anexport surtax on nhosnhate. cocoa. and coffee. and by increasing revenuesfrom Government enterprises. Current expenditures, however, will continue toexpand, partly due to a eeneral 10% salary increase since January 1974 aswell as rising public debt service. On balance, however, budgetary savingsare likely to grnw again- and the rovernment budgeted higher canital apnro-priations for 1974. OPAT trading surpluses are also expected to increasenomewhat in uipw of favnrahle market ronditions for eo-nca and e-offppe eventhough higher producer prices and export taxes will tend to limit profitgrowth.

6S Thme mission has attemnted to give a rough notline of a tentatvupfinancing pattern for public investment in the second half of this decade.Table 16 AincluAda a coa4ae wi4th t-he r-eAsults rof the firet- pl9. Tho

availability of foreign funds will continue to determine largely the levelof public investm.ent. The-se Mo parameters are highly correlated and an.y

upward adjustment of the public investment level would only be possible ifaAequate external funding coulA be secured. T-:gl- onI, the 4 basi ofexpetedAIt.t AaC~~ U LO. .5 UAIA_S - 6-.t C~ A L. JS

5J -IS tA

higher revenues from the Government's total capital participation in CTMBar,d m,ore favorable econom"ic conr,ditions, b_uAgetary recelpts are estim,ated t-oreach a level of nearly 20% of GDP during the second half of the seventiesas aga4in 1 1! !'I.' duLrin 7 U_ anA I .Y I_ _t .51 rcent 7Ca. 1

CkiA C~~~~~~llvv I oU 1 D {V " L& a J- I -. z o *z CLs-Lz-Z%-

6.4 A- indicated earlier, the growtho urn xedtr awiv M~tD .L ALU L. LU ai "II LJ LIIII .L AL U7L 1L.5L LICLO

accelerated and accounted for a growing proportion of GDP, i.e. around 12,i.n thle past few years as against L% JLurng 1967U0IV. TL kteeJJ experLU.dLures

within manageable limits, the Government should devote increasing attentionto LtIle UyrlamidU± 0 LII.L -'grOwthl. 'lo achiLeve -a gre ater lexciLbilitLy LLin puUbJlic

finance, the factors of recent expenditure growth should be reviewed andinvestr,.ent prOJAeCts scrut 4 i.-zedG w-l.th a- -vw to4 - i-tn -h e^ansio4(n o-f.&LV~0LII~II ~JLLP ~LLOOLLUL.LLL£.~ WJ. CZ VA.LW LV L.LJ.iIJ L.LLLn LLI= ~A^0IC.LLLOrecurrent cost. For this reason, a closer cooperation in investments anduuudget pLannrLing between the M'Lnistries of P.LaLnLL.LLLg adIU .ar.ce/Econo

will be necessary. Current expenditure for priority development tasks suchas rura'l U'evelopment, certaiLn types ofL eduucatiLon andu IheaLtl servJJLces, aswell as increased maintenance and other recurrent costs will probablyrequre 'Larger appropriLatiLons. 'L&lereforCe, We LVt Lhae ItaIL.LVeLy a an

increased current expenditure level of around 14% of GDP.

1/ For the purpose of this projection, compensation payments and repaymentsof private bank loans for a previous increase of the Government's capitalparticipation are assumed to be financed from additionai CTMB profitsaccruing to the Government in 1974 and 1975.

Table 16: Illustrative Mission Projections:PablicL Investment Financin 2,SL 0

Equivalent i. A. a Percentage ofCFAF billion (milliona5) Public Investment An a Percentage of GDP

196S6-71 7 97=l9,6 80 V19rT0 Y j,9797707

1L. Budgetary Savings 8.14 48 192 34 45 2.7 5.7

2 (Other Public Savings 2.5 1O 40 20 9 0.8 1.2

3 Public Savinlg beforeDebt Servrice (1+.2) 10.9 58 232 44 54 3.5 6.8

14. ]ebt Service 1.9 18 72 8 17 0.6 2.1

5'. Net Public Savings(3-4) 9.0 140 16o 37 37' 2.9 14.7

6. Changes in Risserves -1.14 -10 -140 -6 -59 --0.4 -1.2

7. Foreign Financing 16.8 77 308 69 72 5.4 59.1

ti. Public Investment(5+6+7) 214.14 107 4)28 1.00 lOC) 7.8 1.2.6

/l Rate of exchange: 1$ CFAF 250

12 Increase -

- 39 -

67. Budgetary savings would, therefore, amount to about 5.7% of GDP.Together with other public savings, they would lead to total public savingsof approximately 7% of GDP as against 3.5% during 1966-70. Debt servicepayments, which were at the low level of 0.6 % of GDP during 1966-70, will riserapidly and are estimated to reach about 2.1% of GDP in the second half ofthe decade. Despite higher export earnings, the debt service ratio for the1976-80 period will probably be of the order of 5% as against 2.3% during1966-70. Nlet public savings are likely to reach 4.7% of GDP as against2.9% during 1966-70. We have furthermore assumed that the Government willbuild up reserves of about CFAF 10 billion during the 1976-80 period giventhe sizeable import growth. This appears to be a conservative estimatesince by 1980 about CFAF 23 billion represents the equivalent of three monthsof merchandise import requirements.

5.5 External Aid and Creditworthiness

68. Assutming an inrreased absorntiup ranacity nf the ronintrv in arepryears, and the implementation of the CIMAO and oil refinery projects, we havetentatively projected a high level of pnhlir inuvetment financed principallythrough a larger inflow of external funds. In the past, France, Germany, andFED have been the nio-r suppliers of foreign aid and they will probably con-tinue to provide relatively large amounts for public investment. Moreover,Togo has recently tried to diversify its external resources, for instancethrough fundings from Canada, U.K., IDA, ADB, and commitments from Chinawhich in the future should help achieve an increased and assured level offoreign financing.

69. The projections are largely based on a continuation of foreign aidpolicyie,ia e,xten s ion of large proportions of grant-s and loans at conrces-sionary terms, except for the two large directly productive industrial pro-J eU . Thi.s i, o--; reasov,n WhIJ th de t v 4ce rat a o 1 , even 1*f-oug,- exp ecLt

to double in relation to the 1966-70 level, is likely to remain at a compara-tivelly low Ieve' of abu 7 do he average during the secn, halofthI .L7 .L%JW .L=V%-J. WtJ1. UL aLJA l .J/ Jf UaV ~i. U'AA. *klb LLLL second 'Al lLa.lf . L L1U=

decade. Having tentatively assumed, inter alia, full interest capitalizationdunrlng the construcer ior.ardsA, nmnjor repa,ments of principal. for CIMAOand partly for the oil refinery will become due during the eighties. RoughetiAte4@A 1 §s sugs tha duin the carl eg1-- .. A 1- sen-ric ee rAdmeoCO *.. *---a iC GO U6E,V: v. istaL LLtL *CL56 W& CA- *y 0S

61U a , LsfKlC PCU .. C OWL V L.CC A. a LAP ...

rise to an average level of approximately 10%. The tentative findings ofth,e illustrative proJections can of course _L- on.y ULPJroad orAers ofmagnitude. They will be reviewed and updated as soon as more releventAetails are available.uC LQ.. LC Va.L aU

70. Ir, summ"ary, 't aprsthat the- growth -rset ------ --orsanI LA* LI C44IU~L , 1.L ak ~jiSCdi& C niL L LW- iL1 FL U01JV CP..L ALJI =4J% .I LC, c%LIU

the economy as a whole are generally good, and external public debt appearsto Le wit.hLLLIIln m1ar1ageabtLe 'level. In vi.e w of thLe country's poverty andU

reasonably good performance, foreign aid agencies should continue to pro-vide dUeveloprment a'u on pre'Uouui'Lnant'Ly concessiLonary terlls andU ue preparedto finance a large proportion of project costs. Given the small size of theeconomy and the current uncer-ainty about essential conditions of --I e

- 40 -

large undertakings and about external trade(including unrecorded border

trade),an increase in public debt on conventional terms appears presentlyonly justified in particular cases for directly productive investments with

adequate self-financing arrangements for additional debt servicing.

Appendix IPagp 1

Preliminary Evaluation of the Education Sector 1/

1. Structure and w-irn features

4' 4's 'I'e 4orAm-1 Aed uc"at4-n syst Am co.n-set -f Ah e.-nA 4 r4 ndtio 1 aF. Strutre

\. .E *&* A. v IU 6 %*. tw v J* C) C i _v .L C i_ v …

of six years of primary education starting at about age 6 followed by a fouryear lower secondary school, a t-hree year upper seconAda oshool and higherstudies of varying duration. The language of instruction is French. Besides

LeMir.istry of EduCatiOn W, whc u-.ebsi colsse. M4inistries ofRural Economy, Health, Labor, and Public Works operate specialized institu-t.A.- OtherA Wa.L" UbU.es ucluAd.e t1h,e rs"Unist-yr ofl. the N'tatio-^L In.sti=O

tute for Scientific Research, and the private school networks. Non-formaleduucat-i'on is -dJspersedu aor.g th-e I'Un-istries of R-ural Ecor.omey (OJeunesse Pior.=-L6niere and Maisons Rurales Familiales, agricultural extension services,

'A-t'on ---. a o c Affaires (l] t …c o r at'ior,1%11IJZO.LU ULT.JJ J. I- aE. ±La142L.LJ1F UL .LUJ.LU1LL

(radio programs); of Health (hygiene, health); and also the National Youth' ovement. In addition are the generally ignored areas; informal education(traditional apprenticeship with local artisans) and the African-family andcomunity oral education -- the only system which the majority of the ruralpopulation has known.

(ii) Formal education prepares individuals for wage employment; tradition-a! apprenticeship trains them for independent professions; and African commun-ity education prepares them for village subsistence agriculture. These areparallel systems. Non-formal education, which operates on a modest scale,consists of several efforts to make the education of both those exposed toformal education or bypassed by it more relevant to the present economic andsocial environment.

(iii) Economic and social conditions in the rural areas are usually notfavorable 2/ and the hope for change is limited. Therefore young people havelittle choice but to move out of their traditional milieu. A privilegedmeans is through access to formal education, which at the primary levelexperienced rapid growth of about 8.5% per year during 1967/68-1972/73.

(iv) Parents make considerable financial contributions to the system.Their contributions are one of the most original features of education inTogo. Monetary contributions were estimated at CFAF 226 million in 1973 forboth public and private education (including CFAF 143 tillion capital expendi-tures) against a total expenditure of CFAF 3.3 billion 3/. Private expendi-tures, however, may be at least twice these amounts if payments in kind areincluded such as food for teachers and labor for school construction. With-out them it is unlikely that the primary school enrollment ratio could haveincreased from an estimated 36% of the school age population (5-14) in 1964/65,to 41% in 1968/69, and 56% in 1972/73. Parents have thus been able to recruit

1/ This appendix was prepared by Mr. Francis Lethem.

'.t '.i&aptersLJ A.XLLI LVJA.= J7 UO ULIA.%.r A&ULLA =16 J=UL&L=O UO1Z L CD-=

togolais" (Vol. 2) Dec. 1971.

3/ 1972/73 - Statistics of the Ministry of Education, p. 4.

Appendix IPage 2

on a contractual basis, and at a cost of between CFAF 2,000-4,000 (against aminimum CFAF 9,000 when appointed by Government), primary school and lowersecondary school (BEPC) graduates as primary school teachers, so called"moniteurs de village". Their numbers increased at an annual average rate of16% from 200 in 1964/65 to 700 in 1972/73 including about 100 BEPC holders.This increase of the teaching staff is an illustration of the difficulty formalschool graduates have in obtaining wage employment, and their realism regardingthe choice between returning to the non-wage sector or accepting a salary belowthe minimum guaranteed monthly wage of about CFA 6,800 in 1973.

(v) In 1970 wage employment equalled 33,000 out of a population of2 million which included 900,000 potentially active persons. The 1970 levelof wage earners compares with about 16,000 in 1960 and 22,000 in 1965 -- anaverage growth rate of about 8% or about 2,000 new jobs per year. Assuminga similar growth rate for the future, and a replacement rate of 2%, the annualabsorption capacity of wage employment may be about 4,000 in 1973. Againstthis figure, there may have been at least 6,000 and up to 25,000 additionalyoung people trying to get wage employment in 1973:

Boys Girls Total

Grade 6 students not enteringsecondary education 15.400 5,700 21,100

Grade 10 students failing atBEPC examination /1 1,200 450 1,650

Approximate grade 7-9school leaverR 3.350 1j150 4,500

TOTAL 19;950 7-30O 27,250

/1 The asQtmntion ic mAdp thnt all BEPC holders will enntiniie their ctidiA4c

(vi) Siuch ar. enr,rma-, oversaupnnly o%f poteont-ial canndAAntacs For t1.le wage

labor market creates a great deal of pressure to expand the next higherlevels of formaal education, since the better-educated have easier access to

wage employment, and foregone monetary earnings are probably minimal.At- the m& 4,e ----- at rates zre considAerable 4n ---ades from. which student6XA~ ".&~ OCAa& _ 6L.ILM~A .A L"6~O QA. '~J* - V ~ .A. 6k ££.JL WILL~..LL L.U UL

transfer to a higher cycle: 48% of total grade 6 enrollment in 1972/73againstL L 4J/, L I I I/ I a dLIU L //o a6d.LL L n7o UX*U LA &.L UU I VLL U±I/L L

the same years. In other words, the formal education system's main products(at 'Least in quantitati-ve LCLLI,) aUL UL"rUUL,t , LrpLeate,a..d, foL LIlUth

who do not go beyond grade 4 (about 15,000 in 1969/70), 1/ illiterates. Theoutcome oUL tLhe formual education system is Uest illuLstrZat e n -the -u-NIL-F

report 2/ "Enfants et jeunesse dans l'espace torgolais" (Vol* 2), Denember 1971,whlich shows in particular the importance of mivration after completion ofgrade 6.

1/ Les Causes des Deperditions des effectifs scolaires au Togo, Ministere del'Education, Lome, 1972.

2/ Pages 84-92.

APPENDIX I

(vii) Public expenditures on education are large despite parental anidcommunity contributions. Current expenditures were estimated at CFAF 2.6billion in the 1972 budget against 2 billion in 1971 or a .30% increase. 1/They represented about 19.5% of public current revenues. Adding contributionsby local authorities and by parents for capital expenditures, total nationaleducation expenditure was about CFAF-3 billion or 3.5% of GDP. Foreign aidwas estimated at CFAF 0.8 billion. Between 1966 and 1970, for which actualexpenditure figures are available, total public expenditures on education incurrent terms grew from about CFAF 1.1 billion to CFAF 1.7 billion or at anannual average rate of about 13%. Estimated 1973 unit costs in publicschools, 2/ especially at the primary level, appear to be low compared toneighboring countries.

UpperTogo Dahomey Mali Volta Ghana(1973) (1970) (1971) (1972) (1970)

Primary 5,900 13,000 6,000 13,000 6,500Lower Secondary 16,900 ( 28,000 ( (

( 50.000 (125,000 (42-72,000Lycee 46,000 ( 82,000 ( (Tearher Training 330;000 451-000 n.a. n.a. 100,000Per Capita GNP (42,000) 25,000 17,000 16,000 60,000

The low public unit costs in primary and lower secondary education relativeto other couintries arp essentinlv due to the large nuhmber of sttudents npr

classroom (respectively 60:1 and 56:1). However, they only hide the factthat average annual teacher salares (e.g. about CFAF 355,000 in primaryeducation or 8.5 times GNP per capita) are, as in neighbouring countries,too high relat4vre to the leirvl of eononmic devenlopment if eatonn isc onin

to reach all school age children within a reasonable period of time.

2. Basic Issues

(viii) The need for fundamental change. It seems that since as early asOdO S1 / an A_ certanly ea',r. tha manny Fr--- cnphon -a4nkr o^- TA-n 1-.r falt

Xi . v J1 , L X 1J_ S. L - .L oneai- . nLthJ qgA I_VitVL_ J__A ,1 I1-

the need to adapt its education system to the nation's economic realities:".... to train people most of whom will hav tro rtma-n4 -wrkL and l4ve with-

in their environment .... namely the rural areas. But if education is to bereformned, sC) W-411 have agriculture." a ,The exaso o-4- prmay -nolmen-ts, t-he

lack of relevancy of primary education to the needs of those who will notUdy furtLler, its 'low efl_.ciency, the over supply of BP holders in termt.s of

1/ Essai de Budgetisation de Depenses de l'Education, Ministere de l'Educa-tion, 1972.

2/ In CFAF. Foreign aid included at local cost equivalent.3/ "Livre Vert" (Party Platform), Lome, 1969, pages 16-17; 28-30; 33-34; 36.

Appendix T

Page 4

the country's absorptlon cat- and tiL. Ca A. a O poLnLV%= Us[IV CLe unv ,ty

structure were all identified as key issues to be solved. Therefore "soc:ialJustice anA equalizat[on of opportunity imtust beco,e -lie rule, .... an' enroll-

ment ratios must increase, regional and sex inequalities must be corrected.To thfat enAd buetter qua'4lfied4 teacliers mIust b'e recruite' an' tile natiortal

languages must be used to preserve and develop the country's cultural_denty"..LU[L-LLLY

(x) 'Pi-e inertia ofl th-e edu`ation -syste;r-,. Little progresshabenl,d\ A 1 IL [[L L. .U L L LC C.ULCU.LVLUL[~~I. "LJ. L.LLCU ~ ~ LIi-I,UtUll [i[UtU

toward the nation's educational objectives. Exceptions to this, however, areL[ti[ t LdlislhieCIIL Ut d UnlVer sit Ly canu espeCLLiadlly i Ls IntbiL.LLULt Of 'JdIadgeIiienlt ,

thie imaginative reform of agricultural education in 1973 -- both largely out-side the influence oU tL[e T "i-isy _f Education -- as well as the creation ofa Teacher Training College at Atakpame. The following data on primary educationare particularly significant. Th'e reforins expected to occur during the first

plan did not take place. 1/ Although enrollment ratios increased, regionaldisparities rem-sainedl. 1The ratiL 01 Ltlh J-Marit1Lilt region1 slghtly decreased

from 1.22 to 1.18 times the national average; that of the Savanna Region re-mained at 0.45 times the national average. The ratio of girls to boys in-creased from 0.42 in 1965/66 to 0.47 in 1972/73 although again, regional dis-parities have remained wiue (0.2u6 in Dapango; 0.43 in the Sokode/Atakpainiearea; 0.78 in Lome all in 1972/73). The average number of pupils per class-room increased from 56 in 1964/65 to 69 in 1972i73. Teaciher qualificationsincreased, but it is uncertain whether under the present teaching conditions(both classroom overcrowding and lack of teaching materials) major improve-ments can be expected in teaching effectiveness.

Develonment of Teaching Staff of Public Sector. 1964/65 - 72/73

as a nereent of total teaching staff1964/65 1972/73

By tvnp of noqitioni

- Tnstituiteurs 0-4 8 n- Instituteurs adjoints 27.7 39.0- Moniteurs 71.9 53=n

(of whom Moniteurs de village) (13.4) (22.0)100.0 100.0

By type of degree

- Baccalaureat holders 0.4 0.- BEPC holders 27.7 42.6- CErPD E h1ALol-ders 71 0 r7 0

1/ Ministere de l'Education; 2e Plan Quinquennal 1971-1975; DocumentAnnexe, Section Enseignement.

Appendix IPage 5

3. Education Reform

(x) The Government, conscious of the difficulties, has set up fivereform committees through the Higher National Education Council, whose con-clusions are being submitted to the authorities. It is understood that theobjectives of the reform are to be of a long term nature -- which representsan appropriate time horizon. We have attempted to make a preliminary reviewof the alternatives open to the Government.

(xi) One possibility is to let the system grow on its own, while ensuringthat present unit costs are maintained so that recurrent education expendituresmight reach an estimated 24% of public current revenues by 1985. By then, themajority of the population could be provided with the appearance of a primaryeducation (corresponding to parents' present presumed demand for formal educationas an escape for their children from the rural environment). Secondary edu-cation would have grown at an average 10% per year against 15% in the pastdecade. The elitist character of the system, however, would still be preservedthrough the continued existence of a private school network of better academicquality than in the public sector, and which would lead to highly selectiveupper secondary/lycee university education. The long-term financial feasibilityof this alternative represents a maior difference between Togo and many of itsneighbors in West Africa where unit costs are relatively higher compared tonational resources (nara. vii).

(xii) Togo; however- may wish to do more to fulfill its stated obiertives(para. viii). It may want to counteract the buildup of social and politicalpressure that is bound to develop whlen masses of young people cannot findwage employment. 1/ If this is the case, it seems that educational planningand reform could henefit from adoption of some of the following prinrinles:

(a) Strurture: traditional and modern elements should he- combinedinto a system limiting the gap between schooling and entranceinto the lahor force. That noint would he ahout ace 1_-15_after which a major cutoff should take place: the majoritywould remain in the traditional sectors (agriculture, artisaqntrade), a minority would be selected in relation to wage(modern) qettnr need Poqeile l t1eprnatvee -include !

A. 1? a community-tyne education given in t-he national languagesinvolving adults of the community trained e.g. in animation,function.al literacy, and agricul ture exte~nsion techniques,

and reinforced with educational radio broadcasts. Thiscould be up to age 8-9;

1/ See para. 5. By 1985, the annual absorptive capacity in wage employmentmay optimistically reach about 9,000 against which there would be everyyear at least 15,000 and up to 60,000 new candidates.

Appendix IPage 6

2. an accelerated primary education (3-4 grades) wlhere thechild is progressively introduced to Frenchi while con-tinuing his agricultural/craft instruction;

3. a third stage of education with a variety of practicalshort specializations whMch, for pupils needed for wageemployment or able to become self-employed, might leadto:

4. a higher education based on a modular concept with alter-nating practice and theory.

B. A combination of A(1) and (2) which could be designated ascorresponding to the new concept of basic education, to be givenby a combination of specially trained or retrained teachers,assisting village leaders. This could then be followed byA(3) and (4) above.

C. The present 6-grade primary curriculum to start about age 7,with teaching in national languages in the early arades anduse of local cultural materials. This would be followed byproposals A (3) and (4). In all cases promotion would beautomatic up to the cutoff point (about age 13-15).

(b) Teacher qualifications: an improvement in teacher qualificationsunder the present teaching conditions (classes of 60 students onthe average) will necessarily increase costs, but wqill hardlyimprove learning. Instead communities should be encouraged tofurther recruit "moniteurs de village" in the medium term period.An increasing proportion of them have REPC oualifirationsand require only short teacher training to reach the formaluualifications of instituteurs - adioints. A reinforcement ofeducational and administrative supervision, for instance, byinsnectors and educational advisors might be more effective.especially if accompanied by supply of teaching materials.

(c) Development of educational materials: research (linguistics,ethnolv-og nro1 traditions) and its rransformatinn into

educational materials adapted to learning progressions isa pre-cndition to the iiu of national lannagesa for 9dhantionnlpurposes.

(d) Relation to economic developmer.t: educational investmentsshould preferably be related to rural or urban development actionsto minimize t}ie risks that the aspirations of broadened educational

p. p t u n L A .4 e W Ul-A. le .1 r.1 s A. at. b yI th . . A 1 -I C V A.A .; ------ tAJF

AunPt'DW"V IALL Lc FL4qwLjL L

Page 7

changes. The school year should be synchronized with the regionalagricultural cycle, so that children in rural areas do not have toattend school during periods of peak labor demand.

(e) Finance: Decisions on reform proposals should await specificationof related capital and recurrent costs.

(f) Phasine: Timing may be a critical element in reform programming.particularly for development and production of educationalmaterials, teacher training or retrainine. and nreDarationof the parents and teaching profession to understand and acceptrefnrms.

STATISTICAL APPEfNDDCX

1. Population1.1 Population 1972

2. National Accounts / Development Plans2.1 GDP at Current Mrket Prices2.2 Investment Financing, 1966 - 712.3 Sectorial Composition of Investments, 1966 - 70

3. Balance of Payments3.IBalance -of Payments, 1966 - 723.2 Balance of Payments (Net Basis), 1966 - 733.3 Composition of Recorded Exports, 1966 - 733.4 Composition of Recorded Imports, 1966 - 733.5 Direction of Exports, 1966 - 733.6 Direction of Imports, 1966 - 733.7 Recorded Imports of Selected Foodstuff, 1966 - 73

4. External Debt / Foreign Aid

4.1 External Public Debt Outstanding as of December 31, 19724.2 External Public Debt as of December 31, 19724.3 Disbursements of Foreign Offical-Grants & Loans, 1966 - 73

5. Public Finance

5.1 Government Revenue-Accrual Basis, 1966 - 735.2 Government Expenditure-Accrual Basis, 1966 - 735.3 Receipts & Expenditures of Local Authorities, 1966 - 725.h Treasury Position. 1966 - 73

6. Monetarv Statistics6.1 Monetary Survey, 1966 - 736.2 Foreign Assets and Liabilities of the Banking Svstem6.3 Togolese Development Bank: Credits Granted, 1968 - 726.h Interest Rates Applied by the Central Bank6.5 Structure of Interest Rates Applied by Commercial Banks6.6 CNCA - Balance Sheet, 1967/68 - 71/726.7 National Savings Bank (CNE): Deposits

7. Agricultural Sector7.1 Producer's Price of Main Cash Crops. 1965/66 - 73/7h7.2 Price Structure of Cocoa and Coffee, 1966/67 - 73/747.3 OPAT Balance Sheet, 1966 - 727.A OPAT Profits and Losses by Product, 1965/66 - 73/747.5 Marketed Produntion of Cash Cropns 1966/67 - 72/71

8. Other Sectors

8.1 Electric Power Production, 1966 - 738.2 CTMB - Sales, Costs, and Profits, 1968 - 728.3 Tmports of Petroleum Productsj 1966 - 72

9. PrirePY17 African Consumer Index, 1966 - 739.2 European Consumer Index, 1966 - 73

Table 1.1: Pbpulation 1972

Thousands Per centof nersons of total

BY aze group

0 - 14 years 979 4815 - 49 years 883 4350 - 6L years 133 665 years and older 53 3

'RV q A-c

Vomnl A 1.080 53

Male 968 47

MMVw4 +j 70 i

Plateau 491 24Central 320 1Kara 240 12LSa an.a 250 12

Total population 2A0h8 100

Rural 1,741 85Ur ba 307 15

Source: Data provided by the Togolese authorities..

Table 2.1: GDP at Current Market Prices

(in billions of CFA francs)

1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973

I. Origin /

Agriculture 23.3 25.2 26.7 29.9 30.2 31.7 33.3 34.6

Industry 3 9.1 9.7 10.3 11.5 11.0 12.5 14.4 16.7**i.j- c- 4 __ f' -n1 - r' f5 t n., ~ -' fi t £t

ko.L "L.L IL -LM^irng) v3.?41 ¢3~,.5) I k.1):-I (3.3)J) (3.6)~u Construction 1.6 2.4 1.5 1.9 2.6 3.0 2.9 2.9

Commerce 9.7 9.9 10.3 13.2 15.4 16.1 17.2 18.3

Government services 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.9 4.1 5.0 6.1 6.8

Other services 5.9 6.2 7.5 9.2 10.1 11.0 12.1 13.0

GDP at current market prices 53.1 57.0 59.9 69.6 73.4 79.3 86.0 92.3

II. Uses A

Consumption 45.3 49.4 52.1 59.2 64.8 70.3 77.9 86.9Public (3.9) (3.9) (4-1) (4.4) (.) (.) () (..)Private (41.4) (45.5) (48.o) (54.0) (o.) (.j ) ..j t.o)

Gross f'^edu 'Lrvesutment I 7.3 1.2 7. U.7 O.5 13).2 e 12.6 14o0Public (3.0) (6.4) (2.8) (3.8) (..) C.) (.) (.)

Changes rstocks 1.4 -3. -0.4 Io 1. 1 .7 2.0 2.0

Exports of goods and 12R8 i3L4 15.7 19.8 5O0.4 21..9 18.8 18 9non-factor services

Imports of goods and 13.7 13.0 14.4 18.6 22.3 24.4 25.3 29.5non-factor services

GDP at current market prices 53.1 57.0 59.9 69.6 73.4 79.3 86.o 92.3

Net factor income payments -1.6 -1.7 -1.9 -1.8 -1.4 -2.9 -4.2 -4.7

GNP at current market prices 51.5 55.3 58.0 67.8 72.0 76.4 81.8 87.6

/1 Official estimates for 1971 and 1972; tentative mission estimates for 1973.

2 Including Livestock, Forestry and Fishing.

13 Including Mining.

L4 Tentative mission estimates for 1971 - 73.

Source: Data provided by the Togolese authorities.

Table 2.2: Invwesttent Financing, 196 6 -7L

as a percentage of' as a percentage ofCFAF billion total investmient _ DP

1971 0 -9-G) -7 1971 196 670 1971

1. Private investment (1e1t + 1.2) 8.5 3.2 2 K.8 28.6 2.7 4.o

1.:L Domestic financing 5.1 2.4 1';.5 21.h L.6 3.0

1.1.1 Household enterprises h.7 2.2 lit.2 19.6 1.5 2.9

1.1.2 Domestic financialinstitution 0.4 0.2 1.3 1.8 0.1 0.1

1.2 External financing ' 4 0.8 1(.3 7.2 1.1 1.0

1.2.1 Direct investment 2.1 0.4 6.4 3.6 0.7 'D.5

1.2.2 Suppliers' credits 1.3 0.4 !"3-9 3.6 o.4 o.5

2. PuDlic investment (2.1 + 2.2 2h4.4 8.0 74.2 '71.4 7.8 10.1

2.1 Domestic financing 7.6 5.j 2:3.1 h49.1 2.4 6.9

2.1.1 GovernnLent 5.1 3.6 2.9 15.5 ,32.1 1.6 4.52.1.2 OPAT 2.1 1.0 6.4 8.9 0.7 1.32.1.3, Others 0.4 0.9 1L.2 8.1 0.1 1.1

2.2 External financiry 16.8 2.5 5:L.1 22.3, 5.4 3.2

2.2.1 Germany 6.1 0.1 18.5 0.9 1.9 0.12.2.2 France 3.2 1.1 9.7 9.8 1.0 1.42.2.-3 FEID 4.6 0.9 14.0 8.0 1.5 1.12.2. 4 IDA, L.4 - L4.3 - o.5 -

2.2.5 Others 1.5 0.4 4.6 3.6 o.5 o.5

3. Total investment (1 + 2) 32.9 11.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 10.5 141.

Source: Data provided by, the Togolegse aUthorities

Table 2.3 Sectomicomposition of investment8, 1966-70

_FAF billion As a percentage of total investment

Public iinvestment Private investment Total Public inv. Private iLnv. Tota:L

1. Administration 1.6 1.6 4.51 - 409

2. IrLfrastructure 12.5, 38.013.8 5.3 41.51 16.L

3. Urban development 6.6 :20. 0

4. Rural development 4 -4 4. 4 13. It - 13.4

5. Industry and trade 2.6 2.9 5.5 7.9 8. 8 :l6.7

6., Social services 2.0 0.3 2.3,. 6.1 0.9 7.0

7. Total investment 24-4 8.5 32.9 74.2 25.B 100.0

Source: Data proiided by the Togolese authorities.

Table 3.1: Balance of Payments, 1966-72(in blTlions of CFA francs)

12967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 JCredit Debit Credit Debit Credit Debit Credit Debit Credit Debit Credit Debit Credlit Debit

Goods and Services 13.5 16.0 14.6 16.1 17.0 17.7 21 22.1 22.3 25.7 24.5 0.0 21.4 32.1

Merchandise 2/ 11.9 1;?.8 12.4 12.2 14.9 13.4 19.0 17.3 19.1 20.7 20.5 22.8 17.3 23.3Travel 0.3 o.4 0. 1 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.3 C0.7 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.9Investment Income 0.1 0.5 0 4 1.2 0.2 1.5 0.3 1.6 0.5 1.8 1.0 2.2 0.8 2.6Government, n.i.e. 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.5 2.0 3.0Other 3]/ 0.5 1.4 0.8 1.4 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.7 1.0 2.3

Net Good,s & Services - 2.5 - 1.5 0.7 - 0.6 - 3.4 - 5.4 - 10.7

TreLde Balance - 0.9 0. 2 - 1.5 - 1.7 - _ 1.6 - 2.3 - 6.oNet; Services - 1.6 - 1.7 2.2 - 2.3 - 1.8 - 3.2 - 4.7

(Goocls and nonfaLctor !Services) (13.4) (15.5) (14.]) (14.9) (16.7) (16.2.) (21.1) (20.4) (21.7) (23.8) (23.3) (27.7) (20.6) (29.5)

UnrecLuited TranEsfers 2.6 0.2 2.7 0.3 3.2 0.4 5.4 0.7 4.9 o.6 6.2 1.0 7.0 0.7

Private 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.3 o.6 0.4 o.6 0.4 o.6 0.5 0.7 0.5Government 2.1 0).1 2.2 0.1 2.7 0.1 4.8 0.3 4.3 0.2 5.6 0.5 6.3 0.2

Nonmonetav CaDitaL 1.7 0,5 3.3 1.0 2.2 2.1 0.8 2.4 2, ,.0 3.5 2 1 4.4 2.3

Direct InvestmerLt 0.1 _ _ 0.1 o.6 0.7 0.2 (-) 0.3 (-) 1.3 0.2in Togo (C) C.) (.) (.) (0.6) (0.5) (.) (.) (0.2) ( _) (1.3) ( -) (.) ( )Abroad C.) (.) (.) (.) (-) (0.2) ( .) ( .) (0.1) (-) (-) (0.2) (-.) C.)

Other Private Long-term o 0.4 0.L 0.8 0.3 0.4 - 0.3 0.1 C0.5 0.6 0.7 2.,3 1.3Liabilities (-) (o.4) (-) (o.8) (0.3) (0.4) (-) (0-3) -) (Cl-5) (0.5) (0.6 (1.-7) (o.6)Assets (-) (-) (0.1L) (-) (-) (-) (-) (_) (0.1) (-) (0.1) ('0.1) (o.6) (0.7)

Private Short-term 0.2 - 0.3 - 0.7 0.5 - 1.3 0.7 - 0.4 o.6 0.,9 0.3LieLbilities (.) (.) (0.3) (-) (0.7) (-) (-) (0.4) (0.7) (-) (0.4) ( -) (0.2) (0.2)Assets (.) (.) (-) (-) (-) (0.5) (-) (0.9) (-) C-) (-) (0.6) (0.7) (0.1)

Government 1.4 0. 1 0.' 0.1 0.6 0.5 o.6 0.8 1.2 2.5 1.2 0.5 1,2 0.7Long-term Loaxis 1.4 - (0 ) (0.1) (o.6) (0 c3) (0.6) (0.3) (1.2) (C) 3) (1.1) (0.4) (1.2) (0.7)Other - D.1 (_) (-) (-) (0.2) (-) (0-5) (-) (2.2) (0.1) (0.1) (- ) ()

SDR' s Allocations _- - - -_ 0.5 - 0.4 - 0,4 -

Errors and Omissions - o.6 - 0.1 - 1.8 1.3 - - 0.5 - 1.7 -- 0.2

Mnetary Movements (increase . debt) - 0.5 - 1.1 - 0.4 - 3.8 C).2 0.2 - 2,1 -

A/ Preliminary'/ Including Unrecorded Trade:/ [ncluding Other Transportation and InsuranceIncluding DiLrect Investment

Source: Data provided by the Togolese authoritics

Table 3.2: Balance of Payaents ('Net Basis), 1966 - 73(I 1n bS11104nnA 0¢' r?A frimtS0

10 1Y/1960, -1967. o 19 /09 1970 197 2 Y[ :;V lytj 3 1

Goods & Services -2.5 -1.5 -0.7 -u.O -3.4 -55 -10.7 -15.3

Exports 11.9 12.4 14.'3 19.0 19.1 20.5 17.3 17.1Imports -12.8 -12.2 -13.4 -17.3 -20.7 -22.8 -23.3 27.1

Trade Balance -0.9 0.2 1.5 1.7 -1.6 2.3 -6.o -lo.o

Travel -0.1 -04 -0.1i -0.3 -O.4 -0.3 -o.6 -0.7Investment Income -o.4 -0.8 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.2 -1.8 -2.1Government, n.i.e. -0.2 0.1 -0.2 -o.6 -0.2 -0.7 -1.0 -1.1Other -0.9 -o.6 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.9 -1.3 -1.4

Service Balance -1.6 -1.7 -2.2 -2.3 -1.8 -3-2 -4.7 -5.3

Unrequited Transfers 2.4 2.4 2.8 4.7 43 5.2 6.3 6.9

Private 0.4 o0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2Government 2.0 2.1 2.6 4.5 4.1 5.1 6.1 6.7

Nonmonetary Capital 1.2 0.3 O.L -1.6 -0.7 1.4 2.1 3.0

Direct Investment 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.3 1.1 (

Other Private lIT -0.4 -0.7 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 t1.U K1*kPrivate S/T 0.2 0.3 0.2 -1.3 0.7 -0.3 0.5 0.8Government 1.3 0.8 0.1 -0.2 -1.3 0.7 0.5 1.0

SDR's allocations - - - - 0.5 0.4 0.h -

Reserves

Movements (increase -) -0.5 -1.1 -o.4 -3.8 -0.2 0.2 2.1 5

Deposit Money Banks -0.2 -0.2 0.3 -2.8 2.3 0.6 1.0T.;ahbitieS °T -0.3n o. n6 0.3 0. 3Assets -0.5 0.1 -0.1 -3.2 1.8 0.3 0.7

Central Bank -0.3 -0.9 -0.7 -1.0 -2.5 -o.4 1.1IAsselities - - 0.1 0.1Assets -0.3 -0.9 -0.7 -1.0 -2 .5 -0.5 1.0

srRS (=) (-) (-) ( ) ( ° 5) ( ~~~~k-u4) ( .-4) (Fund Position (-) (-) (-) (-) (-0.3) (-) (-) (-)Foreign. Ech-nge (=0.) ( -0.9) (-0.7) (-1.0) (-1.7) (-0.1) (1.5)

Errors and Omissions =0.6 -0.1 -1.8 +1.3 -0.) -1.7 -0.2 0.0

2/ Preliminary2/ Tentative mission estimates

Source: Data provided by the Togolese authort-ies

Tale 33:Composition of Reco:rded Exports, 1966-1973 Jan-June Jan-June

19661 1967 15968 1]969 1970 1971 1972 1972 1973

(in millionh of CFA francs)

Phosphate 3,771 3,()32 3,237 3,356 3,720 4, 787 4,677 2,276 3,077

Cocoa beans 1,688 2,'349 2,314 It,026 6,3:36 4,'246 3,719 2,193 1,583

Coffee 1,953 838 1,602 1L,7149 2,657 2,435 2,599 1,080 1,065

Palm Kernels 544 1427 573 48:L 615 6 517 191 77 1140

Cotton 30)7 415 379 16:2 351 311 385 156 1.21

Other products 60)9 833 1,1444 L, 703 1, 456 1,330 971 589 602

Total 8,872 7,894 9.,549 1:L, 477 '15,176 13,626 1252 88

lrin thous ands of metric tone )

Phosphate 969 1,020 1,259 1,320 1,504 1,8114 1,656, 721 1,0)77

Cocoa beans L7 17 14 19 31 27 27 17 10

Coff'ee 1L3 6 10 11 13 12 11. 5 7

Palm kernels 17 13 13 156 17 10 3 5

Cotton 5 7 7 2 5 5 5 1 1

Other products 12 13 19 20 21 21 16 12 7

Total 1,033 1,076 1,322 1,388 1,591 1, 8 9 6 2L , 759 1,:L07

Source: Data provided by the Togolese authorities.

Table 4 Composition cf Recorcled Imprt5 1966-1973

Jan-June Jan-June1966 1967' 1968 15969 1970 1971 1972 1972 1973

(in rllLions of CFA francs)

Consumer goods 6,,906 6,865 6,751 8,455 10,3713 IO,3'76 11,244 5,731 5,838

Foodstuffs and beverages (2,645) (2,538) (2,189) (3,183) (4,071) (3,716) (4,036) (2,058) (2,304)Other (Ii,2 6 1) (4,327) (4,'562) (5,272) (6,307) (6,660) (7,208) (3,673) (3,534)

Fuels 486. 3505 536 679 785 1,059 1,197 585 552

Raw imaterials 282 381 495 607 654 8658 859 465 ".6

Semi-processed goods 1,584 1,'397 1,492 1,898 2,76:L 3,0,42 2,775 1,412 2,067

Equipment goods 3,41 1,9Q85 2,349 2,933 3,350 4,100 5,306 2,062 2,856

Total 11,668 11,133 11,,623 14,572 17',928 :9,h455 21,381 10,255 11,759

(in thousaxids of metric tons)

Consumer goods 459 48 49 57 63 56 62 31 37

Foodstuf'fs end beverages (38) (37) (38) (45) (50) (42) (47) (23) (30)Other (1) (11) (11) (12) (13) (:14) (15) ( 8) ( 7)

Fuels 61 67 66 86 86 104 111 49 53

Raw materials 13 13 18 21 2,4 22 22 11. 18

Semi-process,ed goods 78 68 79 106 113 122 35 18 127

Equipment goods 6 6 7 9 9 9 12 3: 6

Total 206 202 219 279 295 313 242 112 241

Source: Data provided by the Togolese authorities

Tab]-e 1 Direction o1f,orts, 1!96 6-73

(in percent')

Jan-June Jan-June1966 15967 ]L968 1969 19,70 1971 1972 1972 1973

f1hropean Countries 79.,8 8t'.3 88.9 90.:L 88.0 80.' 85.7 83.0 87.0of' which:France 40.3 38.0 38.5 34.:L 28.2 31.5 26.9 25.9 3CI05Netherlands 16.8 17.4 23.4 23.6 26.0 2.5.7 37.8 36.1 35.6Germany (Fed.Rep.of) 5.,8 1o.6 1LO.5 15.6 20.1 1,3.4 11.3 12.1 9.2United Kinrgdomr 1.9 3.0 4.8 2.7 2.4 1.5 0.9 0.7 0.4

MEA Countries -0 .6 - 2.2 5.8 11.5 8.1 10.0 __of' which:U.S.S.R. - o.6 - 2.2 5.8 9.8 8.1 10.0 -

African Courntriets 3.,9 5;.5 5.2 3.t6 3.0 ,3.6 3.8 4.4 5.5of' which:West African 2.0 4.1 2.6 2.'7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.8 3.3

Monetary Unic,nGhana 1.,1 ().5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9 C0.5Nigeria 0.,1 - - - 0.4 - - -

Other Countries 16.,3 11.6 5.9 4 1 3.2 4.0 2.4 2.6 7.5of' which:Japan 4.3 4.3 4.4 3. 8 2.6 2.7 1.8 1.7 2.6UnitedL StaLtes 2,,1 0).9 - 0.2 0.2 0.3 - - 4.0

TotaLl 100.0 10().0 100.0 -100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source : Data provided by the Togolese authiorities.

Tab2e! 6: Direction of Imorts, 1966-1973

(in percent)

Jan.-June Janm-June1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 19'72 1L972 1973

European Countries 61._2 61.6 6 66.4 6o7.2 69.2 69.1 70.5of which:

France 30.8 29.4 31.5 32.0 29..4 34.4 35.6 36.4 38.9Netherlands 4.3 4.0 4.5 5.6 7.2 6.3 6.,6 5.1 6.2Germany (Fed,. Rep . o:F) 12.3 10.5 7.1 6.8 8.1 8,7 1047 9.0 9,4United Yj.ngdom o.: 8.1 9.0 12.2 13.5 11.7 94,0 'i1.0 6.o

C'MEA Countries 2.8 2.9 3.5 4.3 4.1 4.3 3,1 3.1 3.3of which:

U.S.'S.R. 1.5 1.6 1.3 2.4 2.1 2.9 2,1 2.0 2.3

Africani Countries 9.4 10.14 9.0 8.3 9.,4 7.6 6t.3 6.9 6.5of which:

West African Monetarr Union 3.8 3.9 3.6 3.2 2,7 2.8 2,6 2.6 2.4(Ghana 3.7 4.8 3.2 2.5 3.6 2.6 1,.7 2.4 1.2Nigeria 0.7 o.5 o.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0,7 0.7 0.7

Other Coumtries 26.6 27.8 25.9 21.1 20.1 20.9 21,4 20.9 19.7of which:

Japan 13.7 12.6 11.3 7.2 5.9 4.8 4,.3 5.1 2.7United States 3.0 4.1 4.4 5.2 5.,7 5.3 5.5 4.3 4.0China (People's Rep. of) 2.8 5.1 4.8 2.8 2.,4 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.1

TotaL 100.0 100.0 100.0 1C)0.0 100.0 1(0.0 100,0 100.0 100.0

Source: Data provided by thie Togolese authorities.

TaLble 3.7r corded ISorts of ealected 'Foodstuff, 1966-73(i-n 6-U D

11. months U I1onthLs

1L966 196 68 1969 1970 1971 1972 1972M 197) &LL

1. RLce 3.7 2.'7 1,.3 2.4 3.1 1.1 5.2 4.0 4.6

2. Wheat 'lour 7.3 5.,2 5.8 7.7 10.7 10.1 10.3 9.7 11.7'

3. Sugar 7.6 8.3 11.2 8B.3 7.5 5.1 7.6

4. Canmed milk 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.0 1'.0 .

A prelimLnary estimates

Source: Data provided by TogoLese authorities

Table 4.1:

flA*** ala. -S.'UP UL . -K Jl) WT

.UU.sWiNAN r .OioiC i TUC 1ronAIi I A l 'UF UWLaNUIA fiAiiFif

FOR .LOANS IWSUO DUIN, ITE R.bR&OO JNUAR" AP t900 = ftU*Wl R L%Fi6*U.OCIT RETAYABLE IN FOROE GNCURRENCY

'IN TNOUSANDS or UmS DOLLAR4

DtUT OUT5TANDNIB IDECENIER 31,01972

creXtoR ooU?-" ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ wunoa-TYPE OF; CRSDI?OR ZtSBURSED BUsSED TOTAL

FRANCE 1#19f 620 lSI?GERMANY CFEDsREPsOF) li34T 3#34TNETHERLANDS 225 225

,SUPPLIERS 4jr69 820 .30j9

USA 500 500* n. Yn *;f-W 400 = ;500

FRANCE 20 - 20PUBLICLY ISSUED BONDS 20 20

AFRICAN OEV.BANK 1#238 226 18466IDA 3,351 565 3.936

LOANS FROM ItLov ORGALZLATIONS 4*%59 .813 5#402

CANAfDA 2*599 j8; 2p;o3FRANCE 4.12 63 689 5.152GERNANY CrEDB.IP&OF) 12&30 25#3249USA 6000YUGOSLAVIA 854 U 854

LOANS fRON G.OERNMENTS 32.546 26192 34W3

lOTAL *XTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT 1) 42*424 3*6115 460049

NOtEI DEIT UtTH A i:mtiItTV ovr OUrE ONE vrAD

1) EXCLUDES TME FOLLOWING. AMOUNT

INTEREST IN ARREARSIFRANCE 2

LOANS FROM GOVYEINNMNIS -2

TOTAL 2

INCLUDES PRINCIPAL. tN ARREARS1

FRANCtLOANS RORM GOVERNWINTS 1

-_2 - wEXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING As or DECEMBER 3101972

fOR LOANS ISSUEDVOURING THE PERIOD JANUARY 1I 1900 - DECEMBER431*1973DEII CREPAVARLr 'I FfPIEIN .C&URREWCY

IN THOUSANDS Or U.s. OOLLARS

CREDITOR COUNTRYTYuirt OCREDtaOItt2 A-MOUNT

ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DATA DIVISIONECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS-DEPANRTENT

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EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEST AS Or DECEMBER I1*1972

FOR LOANS ISSUED DURING THE PERIOO JANUARY lo 1900-- oCENcga 31*t9?3DOIT REPATABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U*S. OOLLARS

SUPPLIERS

DEST OUTSTANDINO TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODEoiNNNIHo or PERIOD CANCEL

LATIONS.DISBURSED INCLUDING COaNITO DIS8URSEC SERVICE PAYNENTS ADJUSTO

TEAR ONLY UNDISURSO NTS NEWTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MEWTS(1C) (2 C) (4) Cs) (6) (7) Cs)

196S 4,985 4,98S 1*564 1.504 789 172 961 -t1969 5.r59 s,r59 ' 429 56 487 343970 5.364 5*364 131 III s58 141 728 -1111971 4#797 4.r97 1.393 499 104 603 6551972 4.852 6#346 ' 873 955 158 1.113 2

1973 4,r69 5,389 ' 685 4,825 /1 272 5.097 /1 e571974 1,422 1#422 ' 659 94 754 a1975 762 762 ' ' 381 53 4341976 381 381 ' 381 23 404

/1 Preliminary estimate; subject to revision

-3-

EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS Of DICEMBER '1019T2

FOR. LOANSa tlISSUED .aDURIN 'THE pgRInlt *jhuII&sW I.* t &AA - DECEMBER 3!ol4U

DEST REPAYABLE IN FOREtoN CURRECtY

IN THOULLANS OF'Y:t: ODO!LLAR

PRIVATE BANKS

ODBT OUTSTANOING TRANSACTIONS OURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCELs

DISBURSED INCLUDING CONNIT' DIS8URsE SERVICE PAYCENTS ADJUST,YEAR ONLY UNOISBURSCD *ENTS NENWT PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL M1NTS

1970 - 400 ° - - -19!1 - 600 - 5;, e1972 599 600 - - 100 21 121 -

19?3 :00 :00 ' O 200 3' 233194 300 30O - - 200 1 218 1975' 100 100 t o 100 4 104

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EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS Or DECENIER 41. 197

FOR LOANS ISSUED DURING TNE PERIOD JANUARY 1 1900 DECEDIE9 Si,i97iDEST REPAABLE IN' FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN ThOUSANoS Of U6S. oOLLAR6

LOANS FROM INTL. ORGANiZATIONS

OLDT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PtRIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL-

-LATIONS.,DISBURSEO INCLUDING COMMITS DiSBURSt- SERVICE PAYENTS ADJUST-

YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSEO NENTS NENTS PRINCIPAL INTERCSt TOTAL NENTS(1) C23 (3) (4) CS) (e (7) (8

1968 -3700

1969 ' 3.700 - 803 *1970 803 3.700 1-0911971 1.894 3,700 * 642 .14 141972 2*536 3#700 1,466 1.617 * 33 33 236

1973 4.589 5.402 8.700 519 - 26 26 163197* 5.247 14.265 - 2.374 - 32 321975 7.621 14.265 2.294 . 49 491976 9.915 14.265 2.175 204 66 2701977 1l,886 14.061 - 2-175 204 83 2a61978 13.856 13,858 . 204 95 2981979 13.654 13.654 - 243 95 335

1980 13.411 13.411 - - 243 94 3371981 13.166 13.168 - - 243 94 3371982 12.925 12.925 - 243 94 3371983 12.682 12#662 - 243 97 3401984 12.439 12.439 - 126 93 2191985 12.313 12*313 * 126 92 2181986 12.186 12.186 * 126 91 2381987 12.060 12.060 - 126 90 217 -

1988 11.934 11.934 126 89 2161989 11.807 11.807 - 205 88 2931990 11.602 11602 205 87 2921991 11,397 11.397 . 205 85 2901992 11#192 I1.192 - 205 84 289

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EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS Or OrCEMBER 1ll972

FOR LOANS ISSUED DURING THE PERIOD JANUARY 1 1900 s DECEMBER 21#1973DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U.s. DOLLARS

LOANS rRON GOVERNMENTSrRANCE

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING or PERIOD CANCEL&

LATIONS.DISoURSED INCLUDINo COMMit DlCBURStE SERVICE PAYMENTS AOJUST

YEAR ONLY UNDIS8URSED MINTS NENTS PRINCIPAL INTERE3t TOTAL MENTS(1) (9) Ci) C4) ta) (6) CT) (a)

1968 9,756 1C0062 1,013 929 ip241 165 1,406 *361969 9.434 9rg78 72 its 784 153 937 -11521970 7,874 7.934 396 154 729 371 1*100 *261971 7.299 7,575 1.827 944 749 141 890 7T21972 85122 9,63s 704 l.O,7 734 141 87s 4,190

1973 4,256 5m145 2,609 1,871 722 155 877 5831974 5,879 7.615 ' 986 785 194 980 -

1975 6.081 6,830 550 751 202 9521976 5.880 6079 - 80 779 191 970 -1977 5.1al 5!300 A0 919 165 1,0841978 4.342 4.382 * 40 841 139 9801979 3,541 3,541 - 803 111 9141980 22738 2.738 - - 807 03 889 -

1981 1.931 1.931 ' - 744 54 7981982 il8 1ola8 - 465 .30 495 -

9a3 ! 723 72 269 18 284 1984 454 454 - - 141 8 148 -

1985 314 314 0O 4 741986 7*3 243 - - 3S 2 3A -1987 209 209 5 - 35 2 37 -

1988 174 174 - - 35 2 37 -1989 139 139 - - 35 1 38 -

1990 104 104 - - 35 1 36 -

1991 o ro - - 35 1 35 -1992 35 35 - - 35 i 35 -

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EXTERNAL PUILIC DEST AS O-OCCENIER 3161972

rOR LOANS ISSUED DURING THE PERIOD JANUARY 1 loo 0' ODCENOER 31s 9t7soDEB REPAYAILE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS Of U.S. DOLLARS

LOANS rFom afwrmRimNUs

YUooSLAVIAO?T OUTsTANDING TRASA*CTIoNS OUAINO *PEIOD

BEGINNING Of PERIOD CANC[LoLATIONS.

OISURaSED INCLUOIMA COMMlIT. O!sIUSnse tryIE PAWmrMT$ Anuus4,YEAR ONLY UIOISOURSCO NEWTS INTS PRINCIPAL ItEREST TOTAL NEWTSA

(1) (2C) C) CA) CS) (6) CT) IS)

1968 1s134 1.134 '1969 1t134 1,134 -1970 l,34 1,34 203 2A3 19 Ag 231O1971 1.148 I*i48 96 96 -1972 l,244 1,244 ' 390 66 456 -

1973 854 854 ' - 330 23 353 -1974 524 524 ' 340 13 3531975 134 184 * - 16 1 11?

- 14 -

EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS oF DECEMBER i3ii9r2

FOR LOANS ISSUED DURING THE PERIOD JANUARY 1 1900IW DECEMBER 31D1973DEST REPAYABLE IN rOREIGN CURRENCY

IN THOUSANDS OF U*S. DOLLARS

LOANS FRON GOVERNMENTS

DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIODBEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL,

LATIONSPDISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT' DISBURSE, SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUST

YEAR ONLY UNDISUURSED NENTS RENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS(1) (2) c3) (4) Cs) (6) (7) (a)

1968 26,l36 30.821 1.043 1,741 1.241 485 1,726 '361969 26,625 30#557 2#662 1.032 784 337 l.121 6691970 27.252 33.104 2.246 3.608 918 823 1.741 1551971 29,943 34,589 2#441 4.242 *1166 609 1s775 3p7861972 36.593 39,650 1.325 2.188 7.054 717 2.771 -4190

1973 32,539 34.731 13.262 3#652 7,231 791 3,022 6.2281974 39.503 51,990 * 2,489 2,325 815 3#1401975 39.667 49P665 - 1959 2.235 800 3.035 -1976 39.392 47.430 - 1.301 P1?79 762 209411977 38.514 45#251 - 1183 7.311 702 3,020 -

1978 37.378 42.932 1.143 2.159 640 2,799 -

1979 36.361 40.773 1#13 PA-II 584 2,695 -1980 35.353 38.662 1.103 2.131 531 2.6621981 34.325 36.531 * P1103 2.085 477 2.5621982 33,342 34.445 - 1.103 1806 427 2.233 -1983 32.639 32.639 - 2,148 604 2.753 -1984 30.491 30,491 * * 2,021 559 2.5801985 28.470 28.470 1950 519 2.469 -1986 26.520 26.520 - Jp915 481 2.395 -1987 24.606 24.606 - - 1.915 444 2.358 -1988 22.691 22.691 - - 915 407 2.3211989 20.?77 20r777 * - 1.915 370 2#2841990 18,862 18.862 * - m860 333 2.193 -1991 170oo2 17,002 - - 1.806 297 2.103 -1992 15.195 15.195 - - 1.806 262 2.069 -

TaLble 43: DisburseMents of Foreign Official Grant1s and Lojans, 196$6-1973

(in millions of CFA francs)

1966 1967 1c68 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973

Grants ° 625 _ 2,319 4,539 3,987 )4,163 4,916 5 ,41

FA.C l1,2 790 971 1,468 9()8 1,224 1J802 2,l80

Capital Grants 692 535 670 1,118 5(8 761 1,122 1, )80Teclhnical AEssistance IO77 2515 301 350 40o 463 680 700 /1

FED £2 527 59.4 :353 1,424 15779 1,389 1,444 1,361 /3

Unitedi !'Jations 232 258 ,01 534 500 550 570 600

Germanly (Fed. Rep. o ! 3' 05 30 542. 500° 500 /1 550 /1 6cc /i

Other 367 293 264 571 5'0 500 /1 550 j t 6oo /i1

Lowns 1,264 LL07 .40 1,645 1-jD4 522 775 1_056

France 264 216 225 201- 38 175 260 :L80

CCCE 264 216 1L85 126 38 175 180 /1 -L80 /1FAC - - 40 75 - 80 -

Germany 1,000 831 215 1.,236 763 169 367 100 /1

TDA Credits _- - 208 303 178 148 :].01

Other - - - 75 A

Total 3,889 3,187 2,759 6,18Lk 5,091 4,1685 5,691 6,397

/1 Tentative mission estimatesIncluding technical assistanceAs of December 19, 1973

7A ADB LoanSource: Data providecd by the Togolese authorities.

.-Table 5.1: Government Revenue-Accrual basis 1966-1973(in millions of CFA francs)

Actual Oct. Oct. Budget

1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 197211 1972 1973, 1971 1972 1973

Direct taxes 472 509 61.2 965 1,704 1,896 1,55:2 1,341 2,141 2,384 2,360

Indirecit taxes ondomestic transactions 360 406 350 476 672 827 652 6283 684 971 1,122

Taxes on- international trade 3,885 4,257 4,414 5,030 6,504 7,4&8 8,01:2 6,134 5,266, 6,100 7,600 8,391Import: taxes andl duties (3,403) (3,697) (3,635) (4,203) (5,097) (5,968) (6,562) (5,070) (6,026) (6,689:)Export: taxes ancl duties (482) (560) (779) (827) (1,407) (1,520) (1,450) (1,030) (1,574) (1,702)

Noi-tax reventue 485 496 893 947 987 1,500 1,44:L 786, 1,675 1,327 1,561

Total budget revenue 5.202 5 668 6 269 7.418 9,867 11,711 9 77'_ 8,021 10 000 22 12 434

Total budget expenditure. -4,948 -5,270 -5,7716 -6,870 -8,21.2 -9,6&8 -7, 059 *-7,927 -8,645 -10,682 -12,234

Budgetary balance 254 3,98 553 548 1,655 2,023 2,720 94 1,355 1,600 1,200

LI p rel iminary

Source: Data provided by the Togolese authorities

Table 5.2 : Government Expenditure - Accrual basis 1966-1973(in millions of CFA f rancs)

____________________________A_ Actual ____ Budget,Oct. Oct.

1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971./ 1972 1973 1971 1972 1973

Functional classification

General services 2 038 2,102 2 104 2,400 2,773 3..!6 26768 3 167 3,367 3.742 4,257Defense 5835 629 670 734 829 9;3 1,138 846 986 897 L,104 1,261Other 1,453 1,473 1,434 1,666 1,944 2,73S, 1,922 2,181 2,470 .2,638 2,996

Social services 1,2(1 1,299 1412 1,61L4 1.817 2,403 1 971 2 189 2.288 2.826 3,059Education 657 717 775 893 1,018 1,3C-,Z 1,628 1,191 1,290 1,219 1,566 1L,634Health 4L2 437 455 501 544 7 1L3 588 673 684 798 880Other 132 145 182 220 255 303 192 226 385 462 545

Economic services 1,447 1,577 1 781 2,421 3.207 2.92.1 1273. 2315 3.131 4,034Public works, transport. 339 345 3 46 367 418 492 542 369 459 481 617 715Agriculture 250 275 313 368 405 500i 558 387 431 581 650 714Other 858 9'i7 1,122 1,686 2,384 1,903 1,220 1,383 1,253 1,896 2,605

Public debt service 262 292 419 435 415 6§8.0 925 344 298 675 981 884

Total budget expenditure 4 948 5,270 5,716 6.870 8,212 9,68 7,059 7 927 8,645 10.682 234

Economic classification

Wages and salaries 3,06i1 3,106 3,308 3,642 4,131 5,255 4,217 4,687 5,098 6,113 6,795Materials and supplies 806 813 878 1,054 1,190 1,694 1,319 1,625 1,371 1,742 2,079Contributions and sutbsidies 260 71L7 956 1,552 2,047 1,863 1,025 1,174 1,177 1,456 2,025Public debt service 262 3:l6 41.9 435 415 680 344 298 675 981 883Other 55 9 341 1'5 187 429 1915 154 143 324 390 452

Total budget expenditure 4.948 5.210 5,716 6,870 8 212 9 263 7 059 7 927 8 645 10,682 12,234

/1 preliminary

Source: Data provided by the Togolese authorities.

Table , <j: Receipts and Expenditures of Local Authorities 1966-1972(in millions of Trh irancs )

1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972L

Municipalities

Receipts 2O1 25) 219 2OJ 35U J15 4U5

Expenditures 219 222 191 220 299 312 396

Balance 42 33 28 43 6 3 9

Districts

Receipts 2h9 255 283 290 317 329 338

Expenditures 238 2h3 263 283 30% 328 330

Balance 11 12 20 7 13 1 8

Total balance 53 35 48 50 19 4 17

/1 Estimates

Source: Data provided by the Togolese authorities

TraJL±S TrE asuz Psit-on 1966-19'77ir millions of COFA francs)

Oct. Oct.1966, 1967 1968 19?69 1970 1971 1972 1972 197-_

Assets

Treasury deposits with 1,345 2,40 2,075 2,:133 14,076 3,296 1,859 2,h08 1,027the Central Bank

Other liquid assets 1.,185 1,(32 1.,17 2 1,!787 L,622 1,oD85 1,199 1, 301 1,269

Total S'620 722 _ 3;720 5,6913 4381 ML8 709 2 2516

Deposits with the Treasury

OPAT ].,60o3 1,h434 1, 68!5 1,1809 :2, 000 - C05 63 705

Pension Fund 646 688 838 768 654 664 7 30 722 629

Postal System 206 289 470 611L 429 327 2 3:5 165 35 3

Others 158 IL83 358 262 244i 276 366 227 2 14

Total 2 -,I 2,'94 XL 3h 3,327 21 L?67 1,7^16 1, 121

Source: Data provided by the Togolese authorities

Table3 6.1 : Monetary Survey, 1966 - 197 3

(in nillions cf CFA francs)

July July December19656 19R67 1968 1969 19'70 :1971 1972 1972 1973 1973

Assets 6_ _15 7, 627 9,570 aj76?' 139I1iO 1',,875 15,898 15,B20 15,660 17,7t)7

Foreign Assets (net) 4,729 5,t347 6,2h6 10,08'7 10,306 l0,089 7,977 9,316 5,766 6,147Domestic Credit 1,686 1,179U 3,324 3,677 3,634 5,786 7,921 6,50h 9,89[ 11,560claims on Goverrunet (net) (-1,9'37) (-2.127) (-2.6l3) (-2,692) (-11,72) (-:3,649) ('-2,269) (-3,05h) (-1,h20o (-1,776)claims on-private sector (3,633) (i,317) (9,Q67) (6,369) (8,375) (9,435) (10,190) (9,558) (11,3 lL (13,336)

Liabilities 6, 10 5 7U7 c. 570 13,762 1,94I0 ',7 15,898 15,819 15,660 17,7t)7

Mkoney 5,7306 6,678 7,5L9 9,69 10,:151 11,878 11,82h 11,893 11,63L 11,587Currency held outside banis (2,877) (,17L) (3,765) (L,517) (h,5v60) (05,583) (5,L7) (5,282) (h,956' (.-JDemand deposits (2,859) (3,50L) (3,784) (5,173) (5,'9i) (6,29) (6,377) (6,611) (6,678) (..)

Quasi-money 152 299 1,01o 1,801 2,,~29 ;2,23)3j 2,C75 2,307 2,620 4,35,4Other item7ns (net) 527 650 1,007 2,272 1,261 :1,76i 1,999 1,620 1,406 1,764

Source: IMF International Financial Statistics

Table 6.2: Forei Assets and LLabilities of' the Banking System

(in Y1llions of CFA Francs)

July July1966 1967 1965 1J569 1970 1971 1972 1972 1973

Central Bank 4,9575 5,1461 6,2:18 7,222 9,738 10,1L49 8,95C0 9,453 7.,762

Foreign Assets 14,582 5,508 6,3014 7,317 9,826 10,363 9,327 9,465 7,777

Foreign Exchange 4, 305 5,231 6,0:27 7°005 8,728 8,820 7,3142 7,480 5,792Reserve Position ir the Fund 277 277 277 312 573 '173 573 573 573SDRs - - - 525 970 IL 412 1,1412 1,1412

Foreign .CLiabilities 7 4L, 56 95 88 214 347' 12 15

Deposit Money B3anks 1514 373 28 2 . 568 -60 -L 002 -137 -,996

Foreign Assets 1, 614 1, 078 1,577 14,789 3,037 2,765 2,069 2,3148 1,507

Foreign TiAab:ilities 1,1160 1,105 1,5149 1,926 2,1469 2,325 3,072 2,1485 3,503

Total Net Fore-ign Assets of' theBankilng ystem 4,72c 5,337 6,2146 10,085 10,306 10,089 7,977 9, 316 5,766

Scurce: IMF, InternTational Financial Statistics

Table 6.) : Togolese Development Bank: Credits Granted 1968-1972

(in millions of CFA francs)

end of September1968 1969 1970 1971 1972

Industry and Handicrft 175 270 83 242 1494

Coam.um.er^0 14 21 50 120

Housing J1).- 158 222 262

__ a"" eu pm n .4-a"i _ A u %A

construction materials 140 120 157 298 351

Automobiles 36 37 25 33 31

Local authorities 187 9 10 - 2h5

Social Credits 27 19 19 26 35

lotal 72 64 9 7 7u- 1 i741

of which:

Snort-term 329 406 195 482 452

Medium-term 49 66 129 2116 315

Long-term 342 162 242 253 974

Source: Data provided by the Togolese authorities

Table 6.L Interest Rates ADDlied bv the Central Bank(in per cent per year)

Frnm Mnv1962 to As ofJnn 2-98 JTn. 29

1973 l973

I. Rediscounting of short-term credit 1/

1. Basic discouiit rate 3.50 5.50Doc,-nent-- pa-er for exports outside

BCEAO area 3.00 --

2. Advances against Treasury bondsT.Y4 +1, -N -,~A ,n.,4+n f'?( 7nIi. ,VI x - a1i.Y U f 0U0

On current account 5.50 7.50

3. Advances against securities acceptedas guaraftees450s0 70U0

4. " Prie en pensiJon" of Tre-as --A.-

and private paper with less thanslx months of" maturiDy,:

a. T.Y-t4- .i4 -. t4-l- -- 4 in case 4

late supply of statisticaldoc-Lu,-en's 6.oo800 0'.o

b. In excess of the ceiling of#lflT7I A flf l n i .. ii2 -- A-. *1C rCFArF 0uu ML1ii±1LI uo up to 1U

per cent of the ceilingwhichever is nhe higner zi o.UU o.UU

c. In excess of the ceiling, beyondthe limits u-nder (b) 8.00 10.00

5. Dscoun oIf customs duty bills 3.50 5.50

II. Rediscounting of medium-term credit

1. Basic discount rate 3.50 5.50

2. CommissionsWaiting commission 0.15 0.15Commission of commitment 0.25 - 0.50 0.25 - 0.50

III. Overdraft by the Treasury 3.50 5.50

Source: Data provided by the CEA0, as quoted by the IMFIn addition to the discount rate, the BCEAO charges a commission of 1 per centper annum on the amount of rediscount exceeding 75 per cent of the ceiling.

2J Before January 29, 1973, it was only limited to the ratio of 10 per cent.

Table 6.5 : Structure of Interest Rates Applied by Commercial Banks A:(in per cent per year)

Within individual In excess oflimits individual limits

I. interest rates charged on creditShort-term

To official marketing agencies forcrop financing 6.50 11.00

Credits granted to productive enter-.prises entitled to a founding oran approval agreement or to 6.50 minimumpreferential treatment 7.25 maximum 11.00

Advances on commodities properlyguaranteed 6.50 11.00

Other credits or advances redis- 7.50 minimumcon -table by the Centr.al Ban.- 1m.50 .4 m

Other credits or advances not redis-countable by the Central Bank in an 9.00 minimumamount of less than CFAF 5,000,000 10.00 maximum

Other credits or advances in anamount exceeding CFAF 5,000,000 not 9.00 minimumrediscoutable by the Central Bank 11.00 maximum

Menimm-ter-. /2

Investment credits to enterpriseshaving a founding agreement orcredits for construction of social 7.25 minimum

.nterest 7 75 m-"i..'.

Agricultural, industrial, or comm- 7.25 minimumcial credits of a productive nature b.0O maximum

Gloostru.ction credits not declared ofsocial interest or not meeting thecriteria for housing of socialinterest as defined by the 9.00 minimumGovernment 10.00 maximum

Credits not rediscountable by theBCEAO 11.00

TI. Interest rates paid on deposits

Government or quasi-government Determined bydeposits agreement

Private deposits Up to CFAF 200,000 Above CFAF 5,000,000

Demand deposit _ 3.75 mirimum

me -JJ04i

Less than six months 2.50 5.00 minimumSix months to one year h.00v 6.oo minimumOne year to less than two years 5.00 6.25 minimumTo years a.d over 6.o 6.50 r - rw

Savings accounts 4.75

Source: Data provided by the BCMAO as quote lby the T2I

Ll As of January 29, 19732 In addition to the interest rates indicated, two commissions, of 0.15 per cent

and of 0.25 per cent, are applied to medium-term credits rediscountable by the BCEAO,wit+h, +t exc A+eption ofe credAitA -, +AA -4 +, -. -. 454. -1

than CFAF 4,000,000 for private housing.

Table 6.6 : CNCA - Balance Sheet, 1967/68 - 1971/72(in millions of CFA francs)

1967/68 1968/69 1969/70 197/7_1 1971/72

Assets

Short-term Liquid Assets 132.2 157.4 182.3 225.9 184.6

Investments 128.7 227.2 340.4 568.4 642.2

of which: short-term loans (125.5) (224.0) (282.6) (495.1) (567.8)

medium-term loans (3.2) (3.2) (57.8) (73.2) (74.4)

Fixed Assets 9.4 9.7 10.1 10.4 16.7

Total Assets 270.3 394.3 532.8 804.6 843.5

TA nh- I - 13 an

Prov4^ions °0.4 0.5 9.6 19.6 26.2

PT-n1-ia Ai 1%+U o -, o_l. a A IQ-A 9A1.t nSliort-term Debts 4°-° 53.1 I- 10. 104.2 10.

TLT,-term D.bts 61.9 134.9 185..Li.r.). 0 410. ao

* 5O * '_L.LU Lb II l.LJ -4t L aJ -J.J ± .u; L-. C-J v "A ^ g H w,.a /y.v,. y|.CL .^ ;fia AC~ r1 1 ac: R Oo3A A 0 Ef7 7 oQA 1 n

Ne.t - - t- 3 10/ ". 9 .I . 12' r.

'Pota 4 LiabT.-UZiliti4es -in. 39.3% r'3n. 8Oi-4.8u5SoUr.ce Datapro.vL.Lde.d th )7t 'ole V VUahU U4r.ie

Source: Data provided -by the Trogolese authorities.

gable 6.7: Nation ' Q.-A-. . - (G : r!tUW' C~L~J. Ii J' A.W.L'JCLAJ. hD=VJLA1JK &aASA&5 I.w&YAJj * WIJwtU% UD

R uBjL1 r AIU[a.U1UU ,LAOU

(thousands) (CFAF million) (per centF_

i966 2v4..u 3.25

i967 27.8 .o462.6 3.25

196 32.3 540 8 3.25

1969 37.8 6i 3.8 3.25

1970 43.9 74i4.4 3.25

1971 50.4 887.0 3.50

1972 57.3 1,001.9 3.50

1973 (end Sept.) .. 1,O045.0 3.50

Source: Data provided by the Togolese authorities.

Table 7.1 Producer'S Price of Main IJash Crops96 66 1-l 973/74

(CFA franics per kcilolgram)

1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1!?68/(59 1959/70 19707h 1971/72 1972/73 1573/7

Cocoa L4.°- 55-0 70.0 80.0 88.0 93.0 93.0 93.0 95.()

Coffee 70.0 70.0 75.0 75.10 75.0 75.0 75.0 80.,0 90.0

Groundnuts 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 27,,0 __

Palm Kernels 21.0 2:1.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 --

Cotton /1;

Mono 27.0 27.0 27.0 30.0 30.0 3,0.0 30.0 30.,0 32.0Allen 32.0 32.0 32.0 35. 35.0 35.0 35 .0 35.,0 37.0

Copra 30.0 30-0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 3O.0 31,,0 -

Kazrite 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 1.1.0 11.0 11.0 --

Kapok (white) 1L5.0 1'5.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 1.5.0 15;.0 15,0 --

Castor bean :17.0 1'7.0 17.0 17.0 17.0C 17.0 17.0 17.0 --

/1 FPirst quality.

Source: Data provided by the Togolese authorities

Table 7'.2: OPAI,Pice Structure of Cocoa and Coffee 1966/67 - 73/74

(in CFA francs per kilogram)

3966/67 1967/68 1968/69 1969,70 1'970/71 19'LlLT 1972/73 L973/74

Cocoa

I. Producer's price 55.0 70.0 80.0 88.0 93.0 93.0 93.0 95,.0

II. Marketing and cdistribution 13.6 14.5 14.6 15.1 15.6 15.6 15.2 15.26osts

III. Expqort taxes anid fees 12.2 17.5 18.7 22.1 23.9 :23.9 214.)ExYport tax (4.5) (7.5) (7.5) (10.0) (10.O) (lO.O) (lO.0)Sales tax (5.3) (6.6) (7.3) (8.1) (8.6) (8.6) (83.6)Other taxes and fees (2.4) (3.4) (3.9) (4.0) (5.3) (5.3) (5.5)

IV. F.O.B. coslt price 80.8 102.0 113.3 125.2 132.15 132.5 13:2.3

Co±'ee

I. Produce r's price/ 700 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 810.0 90,,0

II. Marketing and distribution 20.,1 20.4 19.7 19.8 20.2 20.2 20.5 20.5costs

III. Exlport taxes anid f ees 23.,5 23-9 24.5 33.8 35.4 35.4 36.1Export tax (12.6) (12.6) (12.6) (21.0) (21.0) (21.0) (21.0)Sales tax (7.4) (7.7) (7.7) (8.4) (8.5) (8.5) (B.9)Other taxes and fees (3,,5) (3.6) (4.2) (4.4) (5.9) (5.9) (6.2)

IV. F.O.B. cosL price 113.6 119.3 119.2 128.6 130.6 130.6 138.6

Ll Price paid for unbroken beams (caf6 sain) of the Robusta Variety. The producer's price for brokencoffee beans (cafe triage) is CFAF 40.0, and the corresponding f.o.b. cost price around CFAF 90.0.

Source: ;Data provided by the Togolese authorities.

Table 7.3: OPAT, Balance Sheet, 1966-1972(in millions of CFA franca)

* - Bad of September 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972

ASSETS 3,423 4,466 5,426 7,543 10,278 11,558 11,284

Short-Term liquid assets 2,381 2,6_6 3,519 4,342 6,647 6,761 5,080

Cash and other currentaccou.ts 1,005 867 1,4e9 1,228 1,237 782 878

Deposits with Treasury 1,089 1,423 1,554 1,682 1,806 2,000 _Other time deposits - 100 - 725l o 3 3j29h 1j900Other short-term assets 287 286 416 707 553 730 2,302

Stocks 99 74 204 671 153 209 547

Export commodities 98 71 162 600 69a 73 -

Raw materials 1 3 41 71 84 136 -

Investments 940 1,712 1,659 2,260 2,757 3,374 4,437

Capital participationin enterprises .. .. 54 142 253 124 416

L/T loans to public sector .. .. 1,605 2,118 2,504 3,250 4,020

Net fixed assets 3 4 44 270 721 1,214 1

LIABILITIES 3,423 4,466 5,426 7,543 10,278 11,558 11,284

Current tax liabilities 47 85 - 768 997 _ 185

Profit tax due /2 - - _ 478 480 - -

Export and other taxes dueL 47 85 - 290 517 _ -Outstanding debts 15 38 12 16 45 /3 710/3 1,553 /3Provisions (mainly for - 113 352 2,013 3,083 3,200 -

future price support)Accumulated reserves Z,55 3,362 4,384 5,593 6,35 7,142 5,922

Accumulated profts 2,602 3,447 4,09 5,718 6,6i9 7,429*Less accumulated 17 85 125 125 254 287

H.F.L~ O , u }JJ'.I

T-cial reserves - - 41 81

Net profits i n the 776 I (M 971 773 777 54 31current year

/1 Excludes coffeeIncludes accounts payable which amounted in no case to more than CFAF 1 million.Mainly short-term.

/ This item is affected by a change in definition.

Source: Data provided by the Togolese authorities.

'rabli3 7.l OPAT,_Profits and Losses by Product 196566 -73/74(In milUons of .CFA francs)

1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69 199/7 19 70/71 197:72 1L97/73

CocoaTtzaL cost 1,092 1,470 1,631 2,99'2 4 ,676 4,712 4,:147 3,149Sales 1,39,4 2 228 L+26 4,203 5466 4, 777 4,092 680

Profits/Losses (-) 30:2 7 97 1,211 796 531

Cof f eeTotal cost :1,627 699 1,243 1,367 2,00' 2,359 2,219 1,027 /

Total cost 1,627. oC; 2 .,21 102Sales 2 110 934 1 607 1251 2 246 224 55666 35

Profits/Losses (-) 235 197 1,iT7 39

CottonTotal cost 344 589 422 353 375 408 455Sales 281 518 41271 346 410 709

Profits/Losses (-) 3 -71 -1.0 -29 2 2i

GroundnutsTotal cost 152 173 254 233 303 244 125Sales 130 143 171 205 292 253 1J45

Profits/LIosses (-) -22 -30 Th L4T -11 9 20

Palm KernelsTotal cost 676 404 538 55;2 636 536 .524Sales 691 380 661 1495 634 507 395

Profits/Losses (-) =-24 123 -7 -_2 -29 -129

All OthersTotal cost 127 90 106 86 118 87 210Salts 109 84 122 87 116 87 193

Profitss/Losses (- ) -61 - -17

TOTALTotal cost 4,018 3,425 4,195 5,583 8,113 8,346 7,680Sales 4 715 4 287 339 6, 774 9 10( 8 590 9,100

Profits 697 811,191 1,420

/1 Mainly broken coffee beans (cafe triage)

Source: ] Data provided by the Togolese authorities

Table 7 X Marketed Thoidctioll of Cash Crops, 19616/67 - 273

1966/67 L967/68 1968L69 1969/70 19 19712 1972/

Cocoa, 16.,3 18.3 20.0 23.2 27.9 28.2 18.6,

Coffee 5.,5 1O.5 1L7.2 13.8 13.9 6.5 6.8

Groundnuts 3.8 5.8 5.1 6.2 4.6 2.5 1.5

Palm Kernels 12.9 15.1 :L9.2 14.8 18.2 14.1 6.o

Copra, 0,,7 0.!; 1.3 :1.0 0.3 0.3 0.1.

Castor Bean 0.,3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

Karite 0.2 1.8 0.7 0. 4 0.9 4.8 2. 3

Cotton 9.5 10.5 5.3 5.0 5.6 7.0 5.9' A

Kapok o.4 0.4 0.5 OD.4 0.4 0.3 0.3

Li Allen. 4.5, mono 1.4

Source: Data provided by Togolese authorities.

Table 8.1: Electric Power Prod.uctionL 1966 - 1973

(in millions of KWh)

3 months 3 moDnths1966 1967 1968 1969x 1970 1971 1 972 197:2 1973

C.E.E.T. 15.1 17.1 19.3 24.8 29.5 42.8 149.3 10.18 16.2

of which:(h.2) (h.7) (5.7) (5.7) (2.2) (1.i) (12.9) (0.k4) (0.1)

Itydroelectric (Kpime)

C.T.M.B. 24.7 27.4 310.2 32.2 34.,2 37.9 t4L.3 9.9 10.6

I.T.T. 1.3 2.9 h4.9 3. 3,.2 6.1 .'5 1.6

Total 1la.1 47.4 54.h 60.:3 68,,o 8'>.9 96.7 22.2 28.

Average price (CFAF/KWh) L2 23.1 221.7 21.5 20.9 20,.8 18.9 19.2 18.8 18.5

Note: C.E.E.T. = Compagnie d.Ebergie Electrique du TogoC.T.M.B. - Compagnie Togolaise des Mines du BeninI.T.T. = Industrie Textile Togolaise.

I1 of which purchase from The Commurnaute Electrique du Benin (C,,E.B,) : 9.8 miLlions KWh.Z2 'J.E.E.T. only. C.T.M.B. and I.T.T. generate electric power for their oiwn inidustrial use.

Source: Data provided by the Togolese authorities.

Table 8.2 : CTM B * Sales Costs and Profits, 1968 - 12

I. Basic Cost Structure

CFAlF bi:Llion in ercent of' sales-- 7 r) 7:b 72 _ 70 717

1. a ales 3.9 1.1 4. 3 4.9 5.1 100 100 100 1.00 1.00

2. pFrodcLction cost 1.114 1.5 1.5 1.9 1.9 36 36 35 39 37

3. clepreciation 0.9 0.9g 0.9 0.9 0.9 23 22 21 18 18

L4. general/financialother coaits 0.14 0.4 0.5 o.6 0.5 10 10 12 12 10

5. net profits 1.2 1.3 '.4 1.5 .8 31 32 33 31 35

II. Profit Ratios;

inperent,__ ,9 70 71 72

1. ProfiLt: sales 31 32 33 31 35

2. Profit: share capital 39 48 146 50 6:3

3. Profit: share capital + reserves 27 3l0 33 36 49

14. rofiLt: totial assets 15 1.5 17 17 19

'. Profit: fixed assets 17 20 25 25 25

Table 8.3 I:ports of Ntroleum Products. .966 - 1<972

(quantity in. thousands cf tons,value in millions of CEA francs)

1966 1967 1968 1969 1L970 i9fl 1972Q V V Q V Q V V Q V V

Kerosene 10 88 13 iih 11 1.02 1.3 114 13 1L25 :L2 135 11 111

Gasoline - 86 11 89 11 92 13 110 17 151 19 195 21 225

Gas-oil; fuel oil 39 217 140 223 141 2147 15 321 51 352 67 558 72 560

Lubricants 1 67 1 57 1 66 1 75; 2 97 2 1Q9 2 189

'rotal 5so 2 65 483 64 07 E81 620 83 1r625 100 997 0 1,085

Source: Data provided by the Togolese authorities.

TaLble 9.1: African Consur Price hdex L 1966-1973

(monthly averages; 1963=100)

14 monthsWeights 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 197:2 1972 197:3

Food 47.9 10'3.0 97.2 96.3 110.0 1114.2 121.9 132.1 1143.8 142,.2

Tobacco and alcoholicbeverages 10.6 109.0 86.o 107.0 102.7 112.1 118.1 128.1 130.8 127.8

Fuel, light and domesticmaintenance B.1 95.6 91.9 99.4 100.7 102.7 109.1 115.4 114. 0 1114.9

Cl othing 7. 107 1 . 1 1 03 . 10 l.9 105.9 117.1 127.2 131.6 1.3h.0 1 30 .9

Housing 6.56 100.2 99.1 98.9 99.6 107.5 111.6 124.0 1,20.2 125.8

lServices 6.6 10c., 102.; 1014. l,,, 176 1G2| 123 Or,2 12 0.0 123,9

ikMiscell1aneous & 12.'3 110(5 113.0 115.1 112.14 115.14 115.1 129.8 122.8 134,.3

Overall Index 1()0.0 103.5 101.1 101.4 107.5 112. 119.6 128.8 133.5 1314.3

,/1 Refers to African fanilies in Lome

2 Includes durable goods

Source: Datta prorvided by the Togolese authorities

Tab]Le 9.2 : E8uxM= Cnsurer 1rice Inlex i966-1973

(monthlly averages; May 19l1lOO)

4 monthsWeights ]966 L?. 1967 1968 19659 :1970 1971 1972 1572 1973

Food 25'.6 ]fL1.C) 112.5 ]6.o 11132 127.2 133.0 iW4.o 115.o 145,,0

Beverages 16.0 133.2 136.9 133.6 12'7.6 128.7 128.5 135.6 132.1 138.,2

Housing and HouseholdMaintenance 159.9 1h7,2 /3 147.7 Z3 L44.7 1414.0 '150.7 180.4 180.3 180.6 196,.9

Transport and Insurance 11.5 122.3 122.6 1L22.h 12'1.8 124.b 132.5 134.5 135.1 129,,6

Health 8.3 128.2 13(.6 133.2 1213.7 :120.0 122.0 126.2 125. h 129.,5

Clothing 7.2 132.9c 132.3 127.8 128.8 133.8 149.4 160.7 1157.t 165.,6

Miscellaneous h 7'.2 122.9 120).7 -L27.2 129.2 134.9 11.8 157.0 15:2.0 163,,0

Overall index 10.70 l227, I 17i :L2811 12:Ll 132.3 142.9 149.4 148.6 153.9

/1 Refers to European consumers in Lome2 10 month average

Item adjusted to take account of an tupwad revaluiation in the indLex between January and February 1967.Includes durable goods

Source: Data, provided by the Togolese autthorities.