Current Developments in Economy

Dr. V. Aditya Srinivas

Insurance Sector (8/6/11)

3 companies have seen 3 CEO change in 8 years. ICICI,Bajaj, Aviva

14 life insurance companies have less than 1 % market share

Out of 23 private companies only 8 have turned profitable

Only ICICI and SBI Life have 10 % market share

Insurance

IRDA has increased lock in period from 3 to 5 years for ULIP

Reduction in charges also creating problems

Break Even has increased from 8-9 years to 10-12years

Insurance Market Share

ICICI 6.3 % SBI Life 6.0 % HDFC life 3.2 % Bajaj Allianz 2.8 % Reliance Life 2.4 % Birla Sunlife 1.7 % Max New York 1.6 % Tata AIG 1.10 %

FM Meets FII (8/6/11)

Finance Minister had a close door meeting with 30 FIIs

He assured him about long term growth impact of India

Indian Economy Challenges(9/6/11)

GDP forecast reduced to 7.8 % Revenue collection becoming challenge

as corporate profitability goes down Fiscal Deficit target of 4.6% difficult to

achieve Disinvestment target of Rs. 40,000 crore

difficult to achieve as stock market in downtrend

Interest Rate problem

RBI had since 2010 raised repo and reverse repo rates ten times to 7.5% and 6.5%, respectively, to control high inflation mainly due to high fuel and commodity prices.

Repo is the rate at which banks borrow money from RBI. Reverse repo is the rate at which banks lend to RBI.

Direct Tax vs GDP Growth % (9/6/11)

Year GDP Direct Taxes 2007-08 9.3 34.7 2008-09 6.8 8.1 2009-10 8.0 14.9 2010-11 8.5 19.3

US Economy Gloomy (9/6/11)

India has invested $ 39 billion in US Treasuries as on March 31, 2011.

US has deficit of $ 1.4 Trillion this fiscal year.

QE 1 US had injected $ 1 Trillion into US Economy

QE 2 US had injected $ 600 billion into US Economy

Unemployment rate at 9.1 %

European Zone Problems

International lenders who bailed out Greece last year with a 110 billion euro (USD 160 billion) loan

GDP to shrink by 3.8% this year and start growing in 2012

Greece's economy shrank far more than expected at the start of 2011, signaling a second wave of austerity measures prescribed by the EU and IMF will pile even more pain on a fractious society

NIM for PSU Bank (9/6/11)

Year NIM 92-95 2.72 05-06 2.85 06-07 2.55 07-08 2.15 08-09 2.10

Private sector banks it is as high as 4 to 5%

Market Valuation (P.E) (9/6/11)

India Sensex at 14.85 China Sanghai at 12.73 Brazil Boveszpa at 10.04 Russia RTS at 6.74

Mutual Funds Industry

Collection in 2010 in NFO less by 57 % from 2009

Only 40 % of AUM is of Equity base and 60 % is of debt

AUM in 2004 was Rs. 1,50,000 crore which went to Rs. 8,00,000 crore in 2007 but then reduced to 6,00,000 in 2008-09

41 Mutual Funds are there in India currently with more than 1000 schemes

IIP (10/6/11)

Index of Industrial production (IIP) for the month of April grew at 4.4% - less as compared to growth of 7.3% in previous month, as per old series. As per new series, which have 45% more items than old series, IIP grew at 6.3%.

Indirect Tax Increases (13/6/11)

Exercise duty collection, indication of factory production rose 38.4 % to Rs. 11,500 crores

Revenue from Customs rose 37 % to Rs. 25,176 crores

Service tax mop up was 27.6 % higher at 7,722 crores.

Financial Inclusion (13/6/11)

Govt and RBI has target to cover 73000 villages having population of more than 2000 by March 2012.

The target is that each of them should have bank account

Direct cash Subsidy can be transferred to these accounts.

Cost of opening an account and maintaining it is Rs. 65

Financial Inclusion (13/6/11)

Less than 20 % of such accounts is active even after one year of opening.

Currently only 45 % of population has access to bank account

Low ratio of one bank branch per 16000 people

QIP Investment Back Fire (14/6/11)

A QIP helps a listed company to rise capital in the domestic market via equity hares, fully and partly convertible debentures to a buyer of is choice.

SEBI instituted the guidelines for this relatively new financing avenue on May 8, 2006 to reduce dependence on foreign capital.

Worst Performing QIPs

QIP Date QIP Price Price Aksh optifibre Sep 20 6.7 Kiri Industry Nov 598 219 C&C Const Apr 244 92 Ansal Proper Oct 90 41

Best Performing QIP

QIP Date QIP Price Price Exide Indus March 108 156 Tata Motors Oct 764 1013 Shoppers Stop Oct 325 440 Godrej consu July 345 438

Inflation Rises (15/6/11)

Inflation rises to 9.06 % from 8.66 % for May 2011

This has again increased the scope for Interest rate rise by RBI

Rise in interest rates slows down the Economy as cost of capital goes up

Interest Rates in India

Bank Rate at 6 % Repo rate is at 8.5 % Reverse Repo is at 7.5 % SLR is at 24 % CRR is at 6 %

World Interest Rates

USA 0.25 % Japan 0 % Bank of England 1 % Europe 1.5 % Australia 2% China 3.3 %

India average 9 to 10 %

China Ups Reserve Ratio by 50 bps (15/6/11) Inflation in China is at 5.5 % which is 34 months

high It has increase its RRR (Reserve Ratio

Requirement) to 21.5 % China one year lending rate is 6.6% and

deposit rate is 3.3%

Hardening of interest rates by China bring down the commodities prices since it is largest consumer of commodities

Greece Credit lowest in world (15/6/11)

S & P has lowered the rating of Greece which makes it lowest in the world

It is lower than Pakistan and Ecuador since both these were out of international markets since 2009

Greece was given first bailout package of $ 158 billion

Economy finds it tough (16/6/11)

6.3 % IIP in April 2011 compared to 8.8 % in March 2010

Q4 GDP rose only 7.8 % compared with 8.3 % in third quarter

0.4 % Investment Growth in Q4 as against 20 % year earlier

32 % drop in net FDI inflow in 2010 44 % drop in gross FDI inflow in 2010

Broking Industry facing tough times (16/6/11)

Company % chg NP India Info line -8.99 Edelweiss Capital 1.68 Kotak Securities -30.05 Indiabulls securities -43.86 AdityaBirla Money -166.56 Geojit BNP Paribas -38.52

Types of PMS (20/6/11)

Fundamental PMS (Multi cap ) Value Investing PMS (long term horizon

with small and mid cap stocks) Quantitative PMS (purely mathematical

calculations) Event Driven PMS (Event base stocks

with short term focus) Mutual Fund PMS (Invest in different

schemes of Mutual funds)

Gold – Ever Rising Demand (21/6/11)

Gold has given return of 160 % in last 5 years

Nifty has given return of 83 % in last 5 years

Central Banks globally have become net buyers of Gold in 2010 in last 21 years

In 2010, Central Banks bought 76 tonnes of gold

Gold – Ever Rising Demand (21/6/11) In 2011, first 6 months saw Central

Banks buying 129 tonnes of gold In 2005 central banks sold gold worth

674 tonnes China Forex Reserve has only 1.8 % of

its in gold of $ 3 Trillion forex reserve World average is 11 % China has to buy 6000 tonnes to reach

global average

Gold cont ….

Japan gold reserve stands 3.2 % of its total forex reserve of $ 1.14 trillion

India gold reserve is at 8.2 % of $ 300 billion of forex reserve

Supply of gold for last 20 years has increased only by 0.7 % annual rate.

Why turnaround in Gold

Over years, Central Banks have had major portion of their reserves in US dollar

Gold is considered as “Store of Wealth” US economy weakening More printing of US dollars leads to

depreciation in its value Gold cannot be printed or mined fast, value of

currencies is sinking against gold

Gold as % of Forex Reserves

Country Gold Tonnes % Res Singapore 127 2.4 Taiwan 424 4.7 India 558 8.2 Japan 765 3.2 China 1054 1.6

Gold Supply Tight

South Africa which produced about 1000 tonnes in 1970 now produced less than 200 tonnes in 2010

Very few large gold mines are expected to come up

Over next five years, only seven gold mines that are capable of producing more than 500 kilo ozones ( 1 0z = 31.1 grams)

International Fund (22/6/11)

An international fund is a fund that can invest in companies located anywhere outside its investors country of residence

Feeder funds is one that invest through another fund called the master fund. Its usually launched to beef up the asset base of the master fund

Performance of International Fund

Funds 1 Year Return Fidelity Global Real Asset 19.48 DSPBR World Energy 19.19 DWS Global Agri Fund 18.78 DSPBR world Mining 18.41 Birla Commodity Equities 16.97 Mirae Asset China Advantage 14.15 Principal Global Opportunity 13.91

PE Investors Eye India (23/6/11) Private equity investors are sitting on cash to

the tune of $20 billion to enter India $70-75 bn of private equity (PE) and venture

capital investment in India by 2015. about $22 bn is required for follow-up funding of

660 current PE-funded companies. Then, about 2,000 companies in the IT and IT-enabled services sectors, manufacturing, engineering, construction and healthcare are expected to attract close to $30 bn in new PE and VC investments over the next four years

PE Investors Eye India (23/6/11)

The total investment by private equity investors over the last six years is estimated at $50 bn through 1,600 deals

PE investments have grown from $2 bn in 2005 to $19 bn in 2007. Thereafter, investment value fell to around $6.2 bn in 2010, registering a compounded annual growth rate of 25% over the past six years.

PE Investors Eye India (23/6/11)

The real estate and property development sector clocked 203 deals worth $13 bn of the total of $50 bn PE investment over the past six years.

FCCB Creates problem for Corp India (27/6/11) Rs. 16000 crore convertible bonds sold by top

500 companies come for repayment by march 2012

Rs.31500 crores worth of bonds due for redemption by March 2013

48% price discount for conversion of Assam company

86% discount to conversion price of RCom 50 % discount to conversion price of Suzlon

ULIP Sales fall hurt companies (27/6/11)

LIC new business fall by 8 % Private life insurers fall by 23 % ICICI fell by 29 % HDFC fall by 27 % Reliance life fell by 52 % Bajaj fell by 42 %

GDP and Capital Investment Correlate (29/6/11)

Year GDP % Capital Contri 2005-06 9.5 % 55 2006-07 9.7 % 56 2007-08 9.2% 72 2008-09 6.7% -10 2009-10 7.4 % 55 2010-1 8.8% 40

GDP and Capital Investment Correlate (29/6/11)

Higher GDP Growth requires strong Capital Investments by Corporate sector

Currently due to high interest rates, the capital investment plans have been put on hold by corporate sector

NBFC under RBI Scanner (29/6/11)

Around 12630 NBFC are registered with RBI as on June 30, 2010

There are 228 deposit taking NBFC 212 NBFC have CAR of 12 % but RBI

wants it to 15 % by March 2012 Banks Credit to NBFC rose 55.7 % in

April 2011 from 15 % year ago.

China holds Treasury in US (1/7/11)

China holds atleast $ 1.1 trillion investment in US Treasury bills

China accounts for 26 % of total investment in US Treasuries

If china pulls out this investments then interest rates in US could go up fast

Young Working Population by 2040 15 to 59 years (1/7/11)

2010 61.8 1980 54.6 2015 62.5 1985 55.3 2020 63.1 1990 55.9 2025 63.5 1995 57.2 2030 63.9 2000 58.6 2035 63.9 2005 60.4 2040 63.4

Economy on firm ground (1/7/11)

Core Sector grows 5.4 % in May vs 4.6 % April

8 sector as compared to earlier 6 sectors Now core sector has 38 % weight age in

IIP index as compared to 26 % earlier

Indian consumption story to grow 14 % next 3 years (5/7/11)

Consumer durables, automobiles, personal care, food have maximum growth potential in indian markets

MNC controls Indian markets

MNC Global Sales %india Rank india Suzuki $23.6 Billion 23.3 1 Nokia $58.1 Billion 11 1 Unilever $58.7 billion 6.6 1 LG $49.4 billion 5.9 1 Samsung $135.8 billion 2.5 2 Mcdonal $24.1 billion 0.37 1

PE Investment Rise, Exist Lag (9/7/11) January to June 2011 saw Private Equity

deals with $ 5.8 billion Total deals in this period 211 In 2010 there were 154 deals during

same period (37 % rise) Deal values have increased by 34 %

compared to same period in 2010 Infrastructure sector had 23 % highest

share of total PE funds flowing in

Mutual Sitting on Cash % of AUM (15/7/11) ICICI Prudential Advisor 28.8 ING Optimix Global Commo 18.6 Sahara Super 20 17.9 Axis Midcap 15.4 HSBC Midcap Equity 13.2 IDFC Premier Equity 12.9

Funds need to keep 5 % of AUM as cash to meet day to day redemptions units

US Consumption down (18/7/11) US Consumption in last 14 quarters have gone

up only 0.5 % This is from 2008 starting Pre 2008 crisis the consumption was 4 %

average for last 12 years That means Q3 again in Question mark ? Increase debt limit to $ 14.3 trillion Asian economies have $ 3 trillion in US

treasuries.

ARCIL Under stress from Large Lenders

Name Rs. Crores ICICI 9000 SBI 3000 IDBI 2000 PNB 1000

Buying 15 year mortgage assets, overstepping ceiling of 8 year asset

Banks aggressive for SIP (22/7/11)

SBI Bank targets 25 lakh SIP till March 2012

Axis Bank targets 5 lakh SIP till March 2012

Overall MF industry from April 2012 to June 2012 had 7 lakh folio closing down

No support from Distributors

India in World Trade (22/7/11)

India is among top 20 in exports of goods

India is among top 10 in service exports Our contribution in world GDP up from

4.6 % in 2000 to 5.4% in 2010 India share in world exports in 2000 was

0.7 % and now in 2010 it is 1.7 %

Indian Corporate Results (1/8/11) June quarter

612 companies so far declared results Sales up 23.5 % vs 18 % PBDIT up 19.4 % vs 12.5 % Net Profit 13 % vs 19 %

Interest outgo 19.4 % vs 7.7 % High interest rates killing Net Profit.

US Debt Default (2/8/11)

To raise the current limit of borrowing of $ 14.3 trillion by further $ 2.4 trillion

To cut spending by $ 2.4 trillion in next 10 years

Initial cut spending by $ 917 billion and and another $1.5 trillion by year end

India holds $ 41 billion in Treasury bonds

World job cuts (2/8/11)

HSBC to cut 30,000 jobs by 2013. Cost to revenue ratio touched 57.5 % which is more than standard of 48 % to 52 %.

China PMI reduces from 50.7 as compared to 50.9 in June. This index is made by HSBC

India PMI reduces to 53.6 in July from 55.3 in June which is 20 month low

Finance Companies to tap bonds from retail investors (2/8/11)

Religare, muthoot and india Infoline to raise Rs. 5000 with average interest of around 12. 5 %

Retail Credit Growth (3/8/11)

Retail loan grows at 17 % in June 2011 vs 6.6% in june 2010

Total value Rs. 6,95,000 crores Home loans account for 3.7 % (Rs.

3,58,000 crores) vs 2 % year ago Auto loans lowest in 2 years Maruti – 26 % Hyundai – 11 % Auto sales leading indicator of demand

in the economy

Banks in BRIC in Risk

Brazil financial shares have lost as consumer defaults hit 12 month high in june and borrowing cost climbs to 46 %

China bank stocks at lowest level since 2006 Bank of moscow needed the biggest bailout in

Russia history last month after racking up 5.4 Billion dollars of unsecured bad loans

China faces risk that 30 % of total loans may go for default

Telecom in worst shape (4/8/11)

Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) has fallen 12 % in India from Rs. 216 to Rs. 190

Bharti Airtel made loss for 6th straight quarter

Africa also made loss of Rs. 302 crore

Debt as % of GDP (4/8/11)

Russia 9 % Ireland 114 % China 17 % Portugal 100 % South Korea 29 % US 100 % World Average 69 % India 64 % Japan 229 % Greece 152 % Italy 120 %

US Economy Downgrade(12/8/11)

US has been down graded from AAA rating to AA by Standard and Poor which sent shock waves across the globe

France and UK may also lose its AAA rating since the debt there is also very high

Equities market around world lost $ 5.4 trillion since the downgrade

US Mess

Unemployment in 2010 9.6 % while in 2011 9.10 %

Inflation CPI 1.6% in 2010 and 3.6 % in 2011

GDP 2.9 % in 2010 and 1.40 % in 2011

Broking firms smell cash in NCD (12/8/11)

Companies like Indiainfoline, Religare and muthoot finance are to raise Rs. 3500 crores

This would fetch brokers commission of Rs. 45 to 50 crores as their fees.

Sovereign Wealth Fund(12/8/11)

UAE investment authority $ 627 billion Norway/Govt Pension fund $512 billion China/SAFE Investment Co $ 347 billion China/China Investment Corp $ 332

billion

Car sales in China (12/8/11)

1.01 million is number of passenger cars sold in China in July

Insurance Penetration

World average life insurance 4.5 % India average 4 % Non life penetration only 0.6 %

Euro Zone Data (18/8/11)

17.5 % India exports to European Union in 2010 -11

4 % share in FDI inflows from Germany and France in total inflows between April 2000 and May 2011

Real GDP and Fiscal Deficit (Source IMF and year 2010)

Real GDP Fiscal Deficit World 5 % 5.5 % Euro Area 1.7 6.1 USA 2.8 10.3 Emerging Eco 7.3 3.7 Japan 3.9 9.6 UK 1.3 10.2 India 8.2 6.8

Real GDP and Fiscal Deficit (Source IMF and year 2010) Real GDP Fiscal Deficit Ireland -1 % 32.2 France 1.5 7.1 Spain -0.1 9.2 Portugal 1.4 7.3 Belgium 2.0 4.6 Germany 3.5 3.3 Italy 1.3 4.5 Greece -4.5 9.6

Primary Deficit (18/8/11)

Ireland 29.7 France 4.8 Spain 7.8 Portugal 4.6 Belgium 1.3 Germany 1.1 Italy 0.2 Greece 3.2

SBI CAR falls (22/8/11)

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Tier I 9.38 9.45 7.77 Total 14.25 13.39 11.98

Provisioning 8,794 9,155 17,071 Rs crore Tier I capital is 8 %

Take out Financing (24/8/11)

Take out financing is a procedure under which the loans made by banks to infrastructure firms are sold to other institutions so that banks recover their funds ahead of the payment schedule under the loan agreement.

IIFCL (India Infrastructure Finance Company Limited) has target of Rs. 10,000 crores for Fy 12

Banks in Take out financing in FY 12 Union Bank Rs. 1500 crores Central Bank Rs. 1300 crores IDBI bank Rs. 600 crores PNB Rs. 180 crores ________________________________ Banks lending to infrastructure sector Power Rs.2,92,342 crores Telecom Rs.94,319 Roads Rs. 99,038

GDP of 34 countries of OECD

24/8/11 Year GDP Q4 2009 -0.9 Q1 2010 2.5 Q2 2010 3.3 Q3 2010 3.3 Q4 2010 3.0 Q1 2011 2.4 Q2 2011 1.6

Million job but no takers (25/8/11)

Defense 1,88,224 Faculty and Researchers 17,739 Police force 5,30,580 Field Investigators 1,300 Doctor and medical staff 1,78,801 National Rural and Health Mission

1,48,361 Income tax department 16,331

Capital Goods stock Bargain Hunting (25/8/11)

Company Current PE 5 year Avg PE ABB 145 43 BHEL 14 29 BEML 12 18 Bharat Elec 14 16 Crompton 12 20.9 L & T 24 23.6 Siemens 32 33.1 Thermax 15 32.2

Gross NPA Sector Wise (25/8/11)

Unsecured and student loans 4.96 MSME loans 4.24 Auto loans 4.01 Agri loans 3.74 Asset Finance 3.26 Home loans 2.23 Corporate & Institutional 1.52 Loan against security 0.30

Japan downgraded from Aa2 to Aa3 (25/8/11)

Moody has downgraded Japan economy Real GDP June 2011 -1.0 % Mar 2011 -1.0 % Dec 2010 2.1 % Sept 2010 5.0 %

Japan to fight rising yen (25/8/11)

Govt to release Forex Reserve to Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) for funding to aid exporters

Japan has $ 1.1 trillion in forex reserves

Gold loses its Sheen (26/8/11)

Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised its margin after gold reached $1910 ounce

Minimum cash deposit to trade gold rise 27 % ti $ 9450

Maintenance margin increased to $ 7000 from $ 5500

Shangai gold exchange also raised the margins

Countries Contribution in World GDP (%) (29/8/11)

USA 23.1 Russia 2.3 China 9.3 Italy 3.3 Japan 8.7 Others 35.1 Germany 5.2 France 4.1 UK 3.6 India 2.7 Canada 2.5

LIC and IIFCL to join (29/8/11)

Infrastrcture in 12th five year plan $ 1 trillion required

The propose venture will allow LIC and IIFCL to buy out 40 % of bank loan with each taking 20 % exposure

This releases banks fund and removes risk from banks

This method is different from take out finance where only IIFCL is involved

IIFCL has Rs. 8000 idle cash to buy bank loans

RBI opens window for New banks (30/8/11)

Paid up capital Rs. 500 crores Listing within 2 years 25 % banks branches in rural areas for

financial inclusion No foreign entity/NRI can hold more than

5 % 10 year successful business track record Sound credential and integrity

RBI opens window for New banks (30/8/11)

Total foreign holding cannot cross 49 % Broking and Real estate companies

mostly out of race RBI to have last and final decision

KS Oil – Commodity Death (30/8/11)

KS oil market cap Rs. 2600 crore last year now only Rs. 406 crore

Company may become take over target Started in 1985 by Ramesh Garg from

local farm to plantations in South East Asia

Edelwiss sold shares of Garg as he could not pay margin

KS Oil – Commodity Death (30/8/11)

Mastard seeds prices went up 19 % from October and December 2009

March 2010 when crop arrived prices crashed 30 % to Rs. 24,400 per tonne. An then fell to Rs. 23,700 per ton.

KS Oil – Commodity Death (30/8/11)

March 11 March 10 Ch(%)

Net sales 4681 4091 14.41

PBDIT 534 462 15.52

Tax Provi 65 40 64.44

PAT 176 212 -16.67

His ownership has fall from 16 % to 8 % Promoter group holding also from 38 %

to 30 %

Suzlon Turnaround (30/8/11)

June 2011 it got profit of Rs. 60 crores vs loss of Rs. 900 crores in June 10 quarter

Order book of Rs. 29000 crores 62 % of order book is from RE Power

books

Suzlon Turnaround (30/8/11)

Suzlon ready to buy 5 % remaining stake in RE Power for Rs. 398 crores

Suzlon gave -27 % return while sensex – 12 %

Total debt at Rs. 12,500 crores Cash balance of Rs. 3000 crores

Usha Throat Recommendations – NBFC Tighter Rules (30/8/11)

Higher capital adquacy norms at 12 % New NBFC should have Minimum asset

size of Rs. 50 crores It should not be from Real estate and

capital market company In June 2011, banks exposure to NBFC

is Rs. 1,69,000 crores which is 50 % of its total lending which is risky

Top 10 NBFC (Asset wise Rs. crore) (30/8/11)

Shriram Transport 24,786 M&M Finance 12,165 Sundaram Finance 11,479 Cholamandalam 9,017 Shriram City 8,539 Bajaj Finance 8,066 SREI Infra 7,482 Manapuram Finance 7,577 Magma Fincorp 5,130 First Leasing 1,297

Gold imports surge (5/9/11)

Gold Imports was 458 tonnes in 2009 but increased to 918 tonnes in 2010

Household financial saving as % of GDP was 12.1 % in 2009-10 but decreased to 9.7 % in 2010-2011

Gold Imports double in last five years for India (5/9/11)

Year $ billion % of GDP 2006-07 14.47 1.5 2007-08 16.60 1.4 2008-09 20.43 1.6 2009-10 28.81 2.1 2010-11 33.95 2.0

US Unemployment more Serious (7/9/11)

Unemployment in US was 6 % in 2007 when the crisis had started

Currently it is 9.8 % which is more than earlier which is more dangerous

Ethanol Production (7/9/11)

Ethanol is produced from Molases which is by product of sugar cane when it is crushed.

Companies want Rs. 35 per litre Govt willing to pay Rs. 27 per liter Cost of production was earlier Rs. 20 per

litre

Indian Investors invest huge abroad (7/9/11)

Corporate investment abroad is $5.5 billion as compared to $ 2.98 billion year ago.

Individuals invested $ 64 million overseas as compared $ 62 million year ago

PMI shows clear slow down

Indian PMI falls to 53.8 from 58.2 in August

China PMI falls to 50.6 shows contraction is on way

17 Member EURO zone also PMI at two year low at 51.5

IIP falls (13/9/11) and Inflation soars

IIP data falls from 6.6 % to 3.3% which shows severe slowdown in the economy

Inflation went up to 9.78 % from 9.22% which is again very risky

Both the indicators would show the slowdown in the economy

Mantra for Success(9/9/11)

Ambition is a must have, but don’t let it hurt those around you – Adil Zainulbhai MD McKinsey India

There is no need to hide your failure but you do need to flaunt what you have learnt from it – Harsh mariwala MD marico

Intellect is good but combine with HUMILITY and You have unbeatable combination – Nitin Paranjpe CEO HUL

Mantra for Success (9/9/11)

Generalist are OK, but leaders do need to have a clearly defined area of extraordinary COMPETENCE – Pramod Bhasin VC Genpact

Think SOCIETY and not just business – Kalpana Morparia CEO JP Morgan India

India to topple Japan as 3rd largest economy (20/9/11)

Japan GDP $ 4.31 trillion India has reached $ 4.06 trillion This is as per PPP (Purchasing power

parity theory) which uses crude measure of purchasing one burger at any place in the world.

In rupee terms India still is only $ 1 trillion economy

US to tax Rich persons (20/9/11)

Warren Buffet Income $ 46 million Tax rate at 17.7 %

His Secretary Income $ 60,000 Tax Rate 30 %

SEBI for MF NFO (20/9/11)

For NFO Equity schemes the minimum amount Rs. 10 crores

For non Equity funds, the minimum amount is now Rs. 20 crores

Real PE Factor for any firm is People (20/9/11)

People is the only PE factor capable of creating value for itself and unleashing value from the other factor

Key No. 1 Unique value proposition and market competitive total reward package to get best “talent”

Key no 2 Build flexible culture with non-negotiable ethical values

Real PE Factor for any firm is People (20/9/11)

Key No.3 Give customers desired value for money

Key No.4 Short term focus should not eat away long term profits

Position of women’s in Corporate world (21/9/11) Nandeni Sethuraman – Head Marketing

Bharti Walmart jointed sep 2011 Geetu Varma Head, food, HUL, Sep

2011 Anjali Mohanty, Head, Global

Transaction Banking, Deutsche Bank, Sep 2011

Anupama Ahluwalia, Head, Marketing, Coca Cola India, June 2011

BRIC Statistics (21/9/11)

Country Current Account Deficit 2010 2011 China 5.3 4 India -2.6 -2.8 Russia 4.8 4.5 Brazil -2.3 -2.3

Currency Position vs Dollar Dec 2010 to Sep 2011(21/9/11)

Currency Apprec/Deprec India -6.2 Vietnamese Dong -6.4 Taiwan Dollar -1.6 Hong kong dollar -0.3 Japanese Yen 5.9 Newzealand Dollar 5.2 Australian Dollar 0.6

India Fiscal Deficit worrying (21/9/11)

April July 2011 fiscal deficit is Rs. 2,28,000 crores which is already 55 % of Rs.4,12,000 crores budgeted for year

Last year same period it was Rs.90,900 crores only

FII have withdrawn $ 1.2 Billion in August and in 2011 net investment is only $ 4.4 billion as compared to $21.8 billion last year.

Short term rates in BRIC (21/9/11)

Country Rates (%) China 3.22 India 8.25 Russia 8.25 Brazil 12

Euro Nations debt (26/9/11)

Debt to GDP Ratio (%) Greece 144.0 Germany 78.7 France 83.5 UK 76.5

Italy debt is higher than the combined of Portugal, Ireland,Spain

STT may Cut (27/9/11)

STT introduced in 2004 Earlier was 0.15 % then reduced to

0.125 % on both buyer and seller for delivery base trade

0.025 % for intraday and applicable only to sellers

BRICS to take on Developed 5 (3/10/11)

% contribution to world GDP in 1995 of developed countries was 44.6% which is now 31.6 % in 2015 while BRICS increased from 15.8 % to 30.3 % in 2015

BRICS now account for 16 % of global exports – almost 3 folds rise in last 15 years

BRICS to take on Developed 5 (3/10/11)

In 1995 % contribution to world exports of developed countries reduced from 40.5 % to 27.8% in 2010 and those of BRICS increased from 6.5 % to 16.3 %

% contribution to Global Portfolio Equity flows in 1995 63.3% reduced to 27.4 % for Developed countries while for BRICS it increased from 5.8 % to 14.6%

FDI inflows ($ billion)

Year $ billion 2006-07 22.8 2007-08 34.8 2008-09 37.8 2009-10 37.8 2010-11 27.0 2011-12(April-Aug) 17.4

Indian companies sit on Cash Pile (17/10/11)

Company FY08 FY11 Coal India 20961 45862 Reliance Ind. 4474 30192 ONGC 25055 28688 NTPC 15360 17859 SAIL 13933 17747 Tata Steel 4231 10892

GDP and Inflation (24/10/11)

Governor Time Inflation GDP Venkitaraman 90-92 12.7 3.9 C Rangaranjan92-97 6.6 6.3 Bimal Jalan 97-2003 4.7 5.7 YV Reddy 2003-08 5.9 8.5 D Subbarao 2008 7.2 7.8

NFO Euphoria turns into Gloom (All funds launched in 2006Rs. Crores (24/10/2011)

Fund NFO Collection Current AUM Reliance Equity 5790 1215 SBI Blue-chip 2850 752 UTI leadership 2025 667 SBI One India 1854 523 UTI Contra 1145 165 Tatacapitalbuilder 268 109 LIC Nomura Vision253 48

World PMI decreases in October 2011 (2/11/2011)

Country PMI Sep PMI Oct China 51.2 50.4 US 51.6 50.8 UK 50.8 47.4 India 50.4 52.0

Power Sector Loans sticky (2/11/2011) Total lending to sector Rs.4,80,000 crores Loans at Risk Rs. 56,000 crores Banks Exposure SBI 36,914 ICICI 37,223 Axis Bank 17,110 PNB 6,706 Union Bank 11,902

Indian Corporate Earnings down (21/11/2011)

Sales up 14.3 % lowest in 7 quarters Operating profit up 4 % lowest in last 2

years Net profit down by 34.9% biggest fall in 8

quarters Operating margins14 1.% lowest in 10

quarter

World In MESS(24/11/2011)

China PMI to 48 US Economy to have 2 % GDP in 2012

as compared to 2.5 % earlier. Germany banks fail in Bond Auction Out of $ 8 billion, 6 billion funded by

Central bank other banks gave only $ 3 billion

US fails to cut deficit of $ 2.2 trillion

Indian Economy Troubled

High inflation around 10 % Rupee Depreciating 52.18 New Pension scheme has violated

investment norms (Corpus of Rs. 9500 crores) of 26 lakh govt employees

Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) (Reading above 100 indicates over valued vice versa

36 basket 6 basket April 11 104.94 116.48 May 103.03 115.46 June 103.82 115.21 July 104.94 116.83 Aug 102.93 114.64 Sep 100.13 111.46 Oct 11 NA 106.65

Retail loans (7/12/2011)

Retails loans portfolio ICICI bank 40 % HDFC bank 50 % Axis bank 21 % Axis bank plans to increase to 30 % Current retail loan book at Rs.29,300

crores

Jim O Neill – founder of BRIC word (7/12/2011)

“India should not raise people hope about FDI and then in week say “We are only joking”

“India inability to raise its share of global FDI is very disappointing”

Rating of EuroZOne (7/12/2011) Country Outlook Austria AAA –ve Solvenia AA -ve France AAA –ve Slovakia A+ -ve Finland AAA-ve Malta A -ve Germany AAA-ve Italy A -ve Netherland AAA –ve Ireland BBB+ -ve Luxemberg AAA –ve Cyprus BBB+ -ve Belgium AA –ve Portugal BBB- -ve Greece Cc -ve Rating below BBB- are considered as JUNK

Subsidy Shoots up (8/12/2011)

Fertilizer subsidy to shoot up target by Rs. 40,000 crores

Food Subsidy pegged at Rs.60,753 crores will also overshoot

Total subsidy could be around Rs. 1,00,000 crores which would widen fiscal deficit by 5.7 % of GDP.

Global Carbon Emissions rise

Global 5.9 % China 10.4 % Brazil 11.6 % South korea 9.2 % India 9.4 % USA 4.0 % 9.14 billion tonnes of total Co2 pumped into air 510 million was extra, largest % rise since 2003 US is world second largest emitter of

greenhouse gases after China

Trade deficit with China (9/12/2011) Total Bilateral trade of india with china is

$ 63 billion in 2010-2011 India imports from China $ 43 billion Currently 26 % of total imports from

China Next five years Chinese imports could

touch 75 % Risky for india as we have strained

relationship

PSU Banks on hiring spree (9/12/2011)

Allahbad Bank 2200 Bank of baroda 4000 Bank of maharashtra 1870 PNB 10500 Uco Bank 2100 Union Bank 10000

Food inflation falls (9/12/2011)

Food inflation at 6.6% from 19.1 on 1.1.2011

Food articles have 14.3 % weightage in wholesale price index

Gold Loans soar to Rs.55000 crores (13/12/2011) Year Loans against gold (Rs. Crores) FY02 2500 FY07 12000 FY09 25000 FY10 37500 FY11 50000 FY12 55000 Interest rates on gold at 12% to 24 % while

personal loans it is 36%

Rupee impact on Economic (14/12/2011)

Rupee slides negates 11 % decline in crude prices

Imports $352 billion to get costlier Government subsidy bill to rise further Interest cost to go up further with foreign

borrowing

% change in currency of major countries(14/12/2011)

Country % change vs Dollar India -21 % Euro -9 % Japan -1 % Brazil -18% China + 1% Russia -15% Malaysia -8%

Losses of Sensex & Nifty (13/12/2011)

Sensex -21.5 % Nifty -24 % RIL -28.5 % Infosys -21.5 %

Consumption to GDP (12/12/2011)

Consumption to GDP of China is 33 % Consumption to GDP – USA is 70 % Consumption to GDP – india is 60 %

Foreign Borrowings hurting (Rs crores)

Foreign currency loan total loan Rel com 20351 34896 IOC 18074 73296 Tata Steel 14464 28716 HPCL 13687 31253 BPCL 10698 24734 NTPC 9334 47461 AbanOffshore 8258 13425

IT sector creates more jobs (26/12/2011)

Company FY06 FY11 Net add TCS 111407 198614 87207 Infosys 44658 130820 86162 Wipro 53742 122385 68643 Tata Steel 38182 81251 43069 HDFC Bank 14878 55752 40874 Tata Motors 22349 53151 30802 SBI 198774 222933 24159

Services vs manufacturing (26/12/2011)

Only 12% of total jobs are created by manufacturing sector

Proportion of service sector jobs in total headcount rose to 46.5% in FY11 from 41.8% in FY06

Tata Steel Strength (29/12/2011) Tata steel contributes $ 27 billion to total Tata

of $ 83 billion Tata steel has operations in 26 countries

spread across 5 continents 67% of tata steel revenue is international 2005 Tata steel acquired South East Asia

based Natsteel 2007 Tata steel acquired Corus worth $ 12.2

billion along with 41000 Non Indian workers

BSE NSE cash volume crashes (3/1/2012)

Period 16-31 Dec Volume 2007 26239 2008 14263 2009 17246 2010 15034 2011 9911

IPO in mess (3/1/2012)

39 firms raised Rs. 14021 crores in 2011 In 2010, firms raised Rs.69,112 crores

Borrowing cost rise for G7 (4/1/12) ($ billion) The maturing debt burden of G7 and

BRIC has balloned by $200 billion in 2012

Japan 3000 Brazil 169 US 2783 UK 165 Italy 428 China 121 France 367 India 57 Germany 285 Russia 13 Canada 211

Ageing BRICs to limit world growth to 4.3 % this decade (4/1/12) 46% increase in people aged 65 + in

BRIC by 2020 61 Million decrease in age group 15-24

years by 2030 in China China factory output to be hit hard BRIC account for 25 % for world GDP

Forex losses looms large (5/1/12)

Company Forex loss % of PBT Renuka sugar 464 203 Ranbaxy lab 498 150 JSW Energy 78 81 Tata Power 717 70 Usha martin 120 70 Essar oil 469 69

Cash market volumes on BSE and NSE (5/1/12)

Year BSE NSE Total 2006 969860 1916227 2886087 2007 1414723 3093928 4508705 2008 1324051 3188510 4512562 2009 1273964 3812031 5085996 2010 1193205 3657521 4850726 2011 693317 2762867 3456185

Sebi fines Rs.60 lakhs on Ranbaxy Ex-Independent Director for insider trading Solrex had invested Rs. 200 crores in

Orchid Chemicals. V K kaul and his wife Bala kaul knew this

information and purchased shares between March 31,2008 and April 11,2008.

In June 2010, SEBI had fined Rs. 1 crore Manmohan shetty, former MD of Adlabs for selling shares.

Govt to come with Auction of shares (5/1/12)

Company Govt holding Hindustan Copper 99.59 MMTC 99.33 HMT 98.88 National Fertiliser 97.64 RCF 92.50 STCI 91.02

ECB cash averts funding crisis in Europe (6/1/12)

ECB has given banks $636 billion of three year loans

Two year Italian yields are down 50 bps Belgian notes also down by 22 bps

Trading volumes drop 34 % worst in world (6/1/12 Mint)

Country Avg Daily trading %ch in last (Million shares) 3 years US 12468 -26.3 China 173218 45.7 Japan 48902 33.2 Uk 2260 5.2 Canada 381 -19.3 France 160 11.1

Trading volumes drop 34 % worst in world (6/1/12 Mint)

Country Avg Daily trading %ch in last (Million shares) 3 years Germany 539 16.8 Brazil 11317 -20.2 Australia 2523 14.5 Switzerland 57 -17.6 India 872 -34.4 South Korea 3537 -27.2

Asset class returns (6/1/12) Mint

Nifty -24.62% Cash 3.79 % (Saving Bank ) Debt 8.24 % Gold 31.72 %

KFA turns NPA (6/1/12) Mint KFA total debt Rs. 6000 crores Banks loan includes SBI Rs. 1457 Crores IDBI Rs. 727 Crores PNB Rs. 710 Crores Bank of India Rs. 575 Crores Bank of Baroda Rs. 537 crores. KFA reported net loss Rs. 469 crores for july

sept 2011 quarter.

US Auto makers post best annual sales since 2008 (6/1/12) (Million units) Company Sales in US % chg YOY GM 2.5 13 Chrysler 1.4 26 Ford 2.1 11 Honda 1.15 -6.80 Toyota 1.7 -6.70 Nissan 1.04 15 Hyundai 0.6 20

Key factors for poor markets

In 2010, FII put in record $ 29 billion In 2011, FII net sellers to tune of $ 380

million Sep

Jobless rates in EU (9/1/12)

Company % unemployment Austria 4.0 Germany 5.5 Crez Rup 6.7 Sweden 7.4 UK 8.3 Italy 8.6 France 9.8

Jobless rates in EU (9/1/12)

Company % unemployment Poland 10.0 Hungary 10.7 Ireland 14.6 Greece 18.8 Spain 22.9

US Economy improving (9/1/12)

US share in global exports rising from low of 8 % in 2008.

FDI inflow in US have picked and are currently 1.5 % of US GDP compared to mere 0.5 % share in 2002

US current account deficit has reduced from 7 % of GDP at height of US consumption boom in 2007 to 3 % now.

US Economy improving (9/1/12)

For China pay and benefits between 2005 and 2010 rose 19 % annually for average factory worked in China while cost of employing US labour increased by only 4 %.

BCG estimates that by 2015 manufacturing in US will be just as economical as China for many goods made for North America consumers

US Economy improving (9/1/12)

US has become self sufficient energy from low of 68 % in 2005 to now 78 % in overall energy requirement

Between 1991 and 2001, greenback appreciated by more than 30% on trade weighted and inflation adjusted basis.

Valuation of Stock Exchanges (10/1/12) Chicago Mercantile Exchange valued at $ 16.30

billion NYSE Euro next is $ 6.8 billion Singapore Exchange valued at $ 6.6 billion Johannesburg Stock is valued at Rand 6.2

billion London stock Exchange valued at 2.2 billion

pound NSE $ 3.5 billion but BSE less than $ 1 billion

New Investments at 5 year low (11/1/12)

Year Govt Invest Pvt lnvest Total 2010 7.39 11.49 18.88 2011 4.43 6.03 10.46

% chg -40.04 -47.79 -44.57

%Decline in 2011 vs 2010 (11/1/12)

Approvals % Decline CCEA 47.62 CCI 59.26 Ports 90.91 Roads 54.05 6 lane highways 30.28 Communication & It 66.67

FCCB Bomb ticking (17/1/12)

Indian corporate have to repay $ 7 billion worth of FCCB on March 2013.

Rcom ($ 925 million) Orchid chemical ($ 175 million) JSW Steel ($ 274 million) Sterling Biotech ($ 250 million)

Slowing Economy (17/1/12)

Period GDP% Sep 2010 8.9 Dec 2010 8.4 March 2011 7.8 June 2011 7.7 Sep 2011 6.9

Indian will do well (18/1/12)

Real GDP per person change from 2007 to 2012 (forecast) % is that Indian will be better off than their counterparts in Britain, US, France and Japan.

For India the rise is 34 % while for China is 50 %

US spends on Credit Cards (18/1/12)

In Nov 2011, Americans spend $ 5.6 billion on Credit Cards Debt

Total credit card debt in the country now stands at $ 798 billion

Insurance Claim Settlement (18/1/12)

Company Ratio % Claim pending % LIC 97.03 1.46 HDFC 95.41 0.61 Birla 94.66 0.35 ICICI 94.61 2.25 ING Vysya 90.49 5.19 Overall Pvt 86.05 5.01 Sector

Non core Biz come to Brokers Aid (18/1/12)

Distribtuion & Wealth Mgt (Rs.Crore) 2007-08 1510 2008-09 1340 2009-10 1280 2010-11 1590

Non core Biz come to Brokers Aid (18/1/12)

Profit from fees basedbusiness(Rs.crore) 2007-08 3070 2008-09 670 2009-10 2190 2010-11 1670 2011-12E 400-450 2012-13E 500-550

UN says India to shine in 2012(18/1/12)(GDP %)

Country 2011 2012 2013

India 7.6 7.7 7.9 China 9.3 8.7 8.5 EU 1.6 0.7 1.7 USA 1.7 1.5 2.0 World 2.8 2.6 3.2 Even in worst case scenario India GDP

to be 6.7 in 2012 and 6.9 in 2013

Life Insurance Premium falls first time in decade (18/1/12)

Year Pre (Rs.Crore) % fall or gain 06-07 61354 98.84 07-08 78502 27.95 08-09 69364 -11.64 09-10 81690 17.77 10-11 82294 0.74 11-12 62428(Apr-Nov)

HNI Portfolio (19/1/12)

Asia Pacific reports from Merrill Lynch and Capgemini HNI wealth in india grew by 22% in 2009-10

India HNI population grew from 1.27 lakh to 1.53 lakh

HNI Portfolio (19/1/12)

HNI Portfolio % of assets Cash 6 Equities 36 Real Estate 23 Fixed Income 26 Cash/deposits Alternative asset 9

Implied volatility & Nifty(19/1/12) Year Nifty IV Dec 2008 10.3 -22 Jan 09 -5.23 1.84 Dec 09 1.54 -8.29 Jan 10 -6.69 10.53 Dec 10 2.91 -13.75 Jan 11 -10.58 37.79 Dec 11 -6.33 8.35 Jan 12 7.13 -17.87

Reliance Buy Back (19/1/12)

SEBI guidelines allows companies to buy back shares upto 10 % of paid up capital and reserves without shareholders approval.

With shareholders approval 25 % In 2005 RIL announced buy back of Rs.

3000 crores but actually bought only Rs. 150 crre

Reliance Buy Back (19/1/12)

Current laws ensure that company spends atleast 25 % of announced offer size that too within 35-45 days

RIL has cash balance of Rs.61490 crores as on Sep 30, 2011

Mutual funds deals (20/1/12)

Natrix Global Asset Mgmt bought 25 % in IDFC MF for 5.5% of its AUM in Dec 2010

Japan Normura bought a stake in LIC MF for about 2.5 %

T Row acquired 26% strategic stake in UTI AMC for 3.6%of AUM in 2010

IDFC bough Stancharts for 5.7 % of AUM in 2009

Mutual funds deals (20/1/12)

Eton Park capital paid 13 % of AUM for 5 % stake in Reliance Mutual fund in 2007

Nippon life Buys 26 % in Reliance capital for Rs. 1450 crore valuing 6.8% of AUM largest ever MF deal by foreign firm

AUM of top 5 MF (20/1/12)(Rs.Crores)

Mutual Funds AUM HDFC mutual fund 88628 Reliance mutual fund 82305 ICICI Prudential 69367 Birla Sun Life 60377 UTI Mutual Fund 57817

Real Estate on Hiring Spree (23/1/12)

985 milion square feet of residential space is due for delivery between 2011 & 2013

In 2008-10 the delivery was only of 522 million square feet.

20% rise in total number of new hiring

Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA) gives $ 1 billion to 5 fund houses (23/1/12)

KIA has given $ 1 billion to 5 local Mutual funds in India

Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund DSP Black Rock ICICI Prudential Canara Robeco Mutual Fund Franklin Templeton Each MF has been allocated $ 200

million

FII control Sensex(24/1/12)

Country FII $ million % chg index India -358 -24.64 Taiwan -9074 -20.61 Japan -323 -17.34 Korea -8584 -10.98 Thailand -167 -0.72 Indonesia 2950 3.19 Philipines 1329 4.06

Stocks Responsible for Sensex Crash (24/1/12)

Company Points fall %chg FII Holding RIL -858 -0.59 LNT -699 -2.76 ICICI -691 -4.49 SBI -445 -5.48 Tata Steel -266 -3.13 BHEL -253 -1.76 Hindalco -228 -3.25

Stocks Responsible for Sensex Crash (24/1/12) Company Points fall %chg FII Holding Sterlite Ind -192 -1.79 Tata Motors -188 -0.08 Jindal Steel -143 -2.47 15 stocks accounted for 85 % fall in

Sensex. As on Dec 2011 india has 3000 actively traded shares while Korea 1816, Taiwan 824, Thailand 545 and Indonesia 440.

Large buyback by Global Energy majors from 2007 to 2010 (24.1.12)

Company Backbuy($ billion) Exxon mobil 100 Conoco Phillips 19 Chevron 13.5 BP 9.6 Shell 7.9 BASF 3.5 RIL 2.1

Consumption story (30/1/12)(million units)

Particulars Total Urban% Rural% TV 122 47 53 2wheeler 42.5 51 49 Fridge 39.7 68 32 Washer 14.2 82 18 Car 5.6 73 27 PC 5.4 84 16 AC 2.8 93 7

FDI flows rise (30/1/12)

FDI flows from january 2011 to Nov 2011 increased by 25 %

Brazil saw rise of 48 % Total FDI in india $ 50 billion FDI created 2.16 lakhs jobs Technology had maximum 146 projects

and growth of 51 % in value of FDI

Infra companies had huge debt (30/1/12)

From 2007 to 2011debt increased GMR 6.7 times BGR Energy 5.4 times IVRCL 5.4 times GVK 3.59 times Jaypee Infratech 31 times

Unemployment at record high in EU (1/2/12) Country Under 25 age% Overall % Spain 48.7 22.9 Greece 47.2 19.2 Portugal 30.8 13.6 Italy 31.0 8.9 Ireland 29.0 14.5 France 23.8 9.9 UK 22.3 8.4 Germany 7.8 5.5 Eurozone 10.4 EU 9.9

CASA Account (1/2/12)

Bank CASA % of total Deposit IndusInd Bank 26.52 Yes Bank 28 Kotak Bank 28 ICICI 43.6 HDFC 47.7 Axis Bank 42 Bank of India 32.41

Sensex best since 1994 Jan (2/2/12)

January 2012 saw sensex giving return of 11.3 %

FII bought close to Rs. 11000 crores of shares

PMI increased to 57.5 from 54.2 in December 2011

Jan 2012 has good data (7/2/2012)

Rupee gain 7.45 % in Jan highest in 17 years

Sensex up 11.3% in Jan highest in 18 years

RBI cuts CRR from 6 % to 5.5% Inflation falls to 7.5 % in Dec from 9.1%

in November, food inflation in negative

Jan 2012 has good consumer durable data (7/2/12)

Fiat panel TV sales up 50% Tablets sales up 40 % Smartphones 8 to 9 % Laptops and Desktops 5-6% Apparel 10 %

PE invest in water business (7/2/2012)

Company PE fund Rs. Crore Invest Vishwa Infra IFC 26 Pratibha indus Sequoia 3 Waterlife india matrix partner 22 Greywater Tech Nexus venture 9 Vishwa Infra Olympus 240 SMS Paryavaran Aditya Birla 40 Neela Systems Vinod Khosla 64

Airlines to import fuel directly (8/2/2012)

Rs 2500 crores saving for Airlines industry

Direct import would cost 4-5 % less of total amount currently paid

Fuel cost account for 40 % of the total operational cost

FII bet on Corporate Governance (9/2/2012)

FII Promoter Return in 2012

IVRCL 37.1 11.2 96.1 Ktak bank 20.4 0.0 56.8 NCC 42.7 19.5 54.4 IIFL 40.1 31.6 52.6 IDFC 45.8 0.0 51.0 Indiacement 27 25.8 45.5

FII bet on Corporate Governance (9/2/2012)

FII Promoter Return in 2012

LIC Hou 40.1 36.5 248.5 Hexaware 41.4 28.2 147.3 Indusindbank 34.7 19.5 139.7 Dr.Reddy 27.2 25.6 120.4 ITC 16.3 0.0 94.3

Bharti Airtel Net profit down 22 % (9/2/2012)

Net profit down 22 % to Rs. 1011 crores ARPU fell 6% from Rs. 199 to Rs. 187 Loss from African operations Rs.260

crores from Rs. 525 crores last year

RBI increases Bank rate to 9.5 % (14/2/2012)

RBI has increased bank rate to 9.5 % Change has been made after 2003 Currently it was 6 %

The rationale it has to be more than Marginal Adjust Facility which is 1 % more than Repo Rate (8.5 %)

Interest cost growth lowers (13/2/2012)(Int.Coverage Ratio)

Sector ICR (times) Sector ICR (times) Infra 1.45 Pharma 8.56 Retail 2.77 Cement 13.49

Steel 3.03 Infotech 29.00 Power 3.82 Auto 33.13 Real Estate 5.59 FMCG 47.80 Telecom 6.11 Capital goods 7.94 Overall 7.57

Interest cost Growth lower in Dec quarter (13/2/2012)

India Inc Interest expenses grew 42% YOY

Lower than Sep quarter 55 % growth Due to rates peak out

Best 10 year SIP returns (13/2/2012)

Mutual Fund SIP 10 year return(%) Reliance Growth 26.86 DSPBR Equity 25.48 HDFC top 200 25.18 Magnum Global 24.92 HDFC Equity 24.89 Magnum Contra 24.38 HDFC Growth 23.11

Best 10 year SIP returns (13/2/2012)

Mutual Fund SIP 10 year return(%) Magnum Multiplier plus 22.91 Franklin India Bluechip 22.10 Franklin India Prima Plus 21.97

SBI back on track (14/2/2012)

Particulars Rs crore Net profit 3263 Total Interest income 27661 Total deposits 10,00,965 Net NPA 2.22% Gross NPA 4.05%

Inflation vs NREGA (Dalal steet page 86 feb 2012)

In 2007 Rs. 11250 crores vs Rs.40095 crores in 2012 spend in NREGA

Guaranted 100 working days in a year Agricuture wages in last 3 years have gone up

by 105 % 46 % of household consuption goes on food High wages, farm labour cost and shortages

rise which forces govt to raise procurement price.

Inflation vs NREGA (Dalal street page 86

Public Money being wasted Angaluru village in krishna district in AP 1000 families and 800 registered under

NREGA 100 days at Rs 100 per day 80000 man days of useful work in a year

is impossible in a village

Inflation vs NREGA (Dalal street page 86

Agricultural wages labour have gone up by 2.5 times

Agriculture becoming unviable Farmers sell land as one acre bring Rs.

10 to 15 lakhs Money put in FD gives Rs.130000 But cultivating land gives only Rs.

100000 So no incentive for cultivation

Inflation vs NREGA (Dalal street page 86

We are promoting dependency and idleness and destroying work ethic by promoting instead a welfare ethic

The easily obtained money is spend on liquor

Rs. 15000 crore worth of liquor being sold in Andhra Pradesh every year

Interesting Data (Dalal street pg 58 Feb 2012 241 million people would be added to working

population between 2010 to 2030 35 Million people are employed directly in textile

industry Textile is second to agriculture Textile industry contributes 14 % to Indian

industrial production and 4 % to GDP PSU banks have Rs. 10,000 crores exposure to

the telecom companies of which Rs. 7500 crores is secured against assets.

India Imports from GULF (29/2/2012) (Million Metric tonnes)

Country 2009-10 2010-11 Saudi Arabia 27.18 27.36 Iran 21.19 18.49 Iraq 14.96 17.15 UAE 11.60 14.70 Kuwait 11.79 11.49 Qatar 5.41 5.60 Oman 5.39 5.42

Economy crawls at 6.1% slowest in 3 years (1/3/2012)

In Q3 GDP growth at 6.1% In last quarter that is Q2 it was 6.9% Sectors Q 2 Q3 Agriculture 3.2 2.7 Manufacturing 2.7 0.4 Services 9.3 8.9

BSE shares rise due to MCX(1/3/2012)

BSE shares now are at Rs. 180 In Dec 2011 they were at Rs. 140 BSE brokers were given 10,000 shares

at Rs. 1 each They were purchased back at Rs. 5200 Then 12:1 bonus was given which took

the value to Rs. 400 per share Book value of one BSE share is Rs. 205

Structured Products (1/3/2012)

Karvy Private Wealth managed Rs. 21,387 crore allotted to them in 2011

Capital Guarantee 2 to 3 years lock in Case:- Rs. 100, maturity 2 years. Rs 85 invested in FD

and Rs. 15 in shares AT 8 % Rs.16 would be earned in 2 years which makes

85 + 16 = Rs. 100 as principal Now Rs. 15 in equities say gives 100 % return then Rs.

30 out of it So total return Rs. 30 + 100 = 130 which means 30%

return in 2 years which is fair enough with capital guarantee.

Nifty PE cheaper than peers (1/3/2012)

Index Current PE FY13 PE Japan Nikki 25.43 15.04 US Nasdaq 24.18 13.46 Korea Kospi 21.63 8.56 Taiwan TWSE 19.16 12.99 India Nifty 15.14 13.35 China Shcomp 12.75 8.59 Germany DAX 11.74 9.59

Nifty PE cheaper than peers (1/3/2012)

Index Current PE FY13 PE Brazil IBOV 11.47 9.41 UK FTSE 11.24 9.57 France CAC 10.84 9.11 Hong Kong 10.03 9.86 Singapore 8.58 12.56 Russia RTSI 5.87 5.91

Corporate Bribes in US Rise (12/3/2012)

$ 1 trillion paid in bribes annually to governments officials

78 corporations under investigation in USA

Violation of Foreign Corrupt Practice Act which is 35 years old

Pfizer, Goldmansach, HP,Wal Mart

RBI cuts CRR by 75 basis points (9/3/2012)

RBI cuts CRR by 75 basis points. New CRR is at 4.75 % It would release Rs. 48000 crores into

system. Earlier CRR cut of 50 basis points had

injected Rs.32000 crores Totally Rs. 80,000 crores

MNC Arms valued more than parent (14/3/2012)

Indian PE ROE(%) Astrazeneca 90.3 49.8 Novartis India 15.7 33.8 Kennametal India 26.0 43.0 Honeywell Auto 24.3 28.6 3M India 63.0 30.1 Blue Dart 37.8 28.2 Oracle Fin Ser 19.7 25.7

MNC Arms valued more than parent (14/3/2012)

Parent PE ROE (%) Astrazeneca PLC 6.2 43 Novartis India AG 14.3 14.1 Kennametal India 12.2 15.6 Honeywell Int 13.6 19.3 3M Co 14.7 27.6 Deutsche Post AG 14.4 27.2 Oracle Corp 15.7 24.2

First SME listed on BSE(14/3/2012)

BCB finance first company to list on BSE SME

It raised Rs 8.85 crores Issued 35.4 lakh shares Shares were priced at Rs.25 but it got

listed at Rs. 27 (gain of 8%)

Govt Borrowing in Fiscal 2012

The Govt had initially targeted borrowing of Rs.4,17,128 crores

Rs. 5,10,000 crores is actual borrowing done

IIP Growth surprises in Jan 2012 (13/3/2012)

Month IIP (%) July 2011 3.6 Aug 2011 3.4 Sep 2011 2.5 Oct 2011 -5.0 Nov 2011 5.9 Dec 2011 2.5 Jan 2012 6.8

Pharma sector on Tenterhooks(15/3/2012) Indian pharma market worth Rs. 60,000 crores 15 % growth of industry for last many years Foreign markets growing single digit Natco pharma allowed to sell cancer drug at 3

% of Bayer price which is too low Foreign MNC not happy with allowing

manufacturing and selling low cost version of cancer drug at fraction of price charged by patent holder Germany Bayer AG

Reduced Poverty numbers (20/3/2012) In 2005 population 1140 million & in 2010 it is

1225 million In 2004-05 no of people below poverty line

407.2 million and in 2009-10 it is 354.7 million Villages see drop from 37% to 30% in 5 years GDP in 2004-05 7%, 2005-06 9.5%, 2006-07

9.5%, 2007-08 9.7%, 2008-09 6.5%, 2009-10 8.4%

HCC on verge of NPA (20/3/2012) Rs. 8100 crore debt Rs. 3000 crore loans needs to be restructured 27 lenders including SBI, PNB trying to

persuade HCC to pay Rs. 90 crore interest payment lenders want

from HCC by March 31 to maintain its “standard status”

Rs.134 crore loss HCC posted in Dec 2011 Rs. 1.5 lakh crore loans likely to be restructured

in Indian banking system this fiscal. Lavasa project has also slowed down

Inequality increases Gini Coefficient (22/3/2012)

States 2004-05 2009-10 All India 0.35 0.37 Maharashtra 0.35 0.38 Gujarat 0.30 0.31 Jammu kashmir 0.24 0.31 Punjab 0.32 0.36 Assam 0.30 0.33 Rajasthan 0.30 0.32

Inflation Index (22/3/12) Mint

Particulars Weight age Food, beverages,tobacco 50 % Fuel & light 9% Housing 10% Clothing,bedding,footwear 5% Miscellaneous 26%

Real Estate Shaky (22/3/2012) Mint

Year Int.as % of Net Sales March 2010 6.50 Sep 2010 8.78 March 2011 8.01 Sep 2011 10.62

Real Estate Shaky (22/3/2012) Mint

Year Int Coverage Ratio

March 2010 4.85 Sep 2010 3.87 March 2011 3.45 Sep 2011 2.80

Real Estate Shaky (22/3/2012) Mint

Year Debt Equity Ratio March 2010 5.31 Sep 2010 8.53 March 2011 9.73 Sep 2011 10.10

Mahindra Satyam Deal (22/2/2012) Strength of Combined Entity Valuation of Mahindra Satyam $ 1.8 billion $ 2.4 billion revenue 75000 employees 350 clients $ 3.1 billion market cap 2 shares of Tech Mahindra shares to be

swapped for 17 shares of Mahindra Satyam

Mahindra Satyam Deal (Rs.crore) (22/2/2012)

Satyam Tech Mah Combine

Net sales 6105 5332 11437 PBIT 751 777 1529 PAT 444 670 1115 Oper margin 12.3 14.6 13.4 Reserves 4358 3682 8041

RBI Tightens Norms for Gold loan NBFCs (22/3/2012)

RBI has directed that companies having half their assets in gold should have minimum CAR of 12% Tier I by April 2014

Companies cannot lend more than 60% of value of gold jewellery

PE firms Big losses on Dalal Street (26/3/2012)

Company Time Price CMP Loss Punj Lloyd Aug07 275 55 -80% NCC Aug07 202 50 -75% Golandas Aug07 275 75 -73% Welspun Corp June11 225 144 -36% IDFC July10 176 135 -23% Max India Dec 10 183 171 -7%

GAAR Scares Market (27/3/2012)

GAAR (General Anti Avoidance Rule) Aims to tax FII coming through Mauritius Participatory Notes (P-Notes)

It may overrule the DTAA (Double Tax Avoidance Treaty)

Sovereign Wealth Funds (28/3/2012) Fund $ Billion Abudhabi Investment 627 Norway Govt Pension 611 China SAFE Investment 568 Saudi Arabia SAMA 533 China Investment Corp 439 Kuwait Investment Authority 296 HK Monetary Authority 293 Govt of Singapore 247 Temasek Holdings 157 Russia National Welfare fund 149

ELSS outperforms traditional tax savers (28/3/2012)

ELSS has given 26 % return in last 10 years and 22 % return in last 3 years

Average inflation in last 10 years is 6.05%

PPF has given 8.10 % in last 10 years NSC has given 9.10 % in last 10 years

BRICS Shining (29/3/2012)

Share of BRICS in world GDP Year % share 2000 8.4 2010 18.2 2016(Est) 23.8 Source IMF

BRICS Shining (29/3/2012

Countrywise share in world GDP Country % share India 2.6 Brazil 3.3 China 9.3 Russia 2.4 South Africa 0.6

BRICS Shining (29/3/2012

BRICS share in Global Exports 2000 It was 6.9% 2010 it was 16.3 %

BRICS share in FDI Attraction 2000 it was 5.3% 2010 it was 17.8%

SEBI norms for listing Stock Exchanges (3/4/2012) Bourses must separate regulatory and business

roles before listing Listing will take place 3 years after SEBI nod SE have to set up Independent Clearing

Corporation & transfer 25% of profit to Settlement Guarantee Fund

No single investor should hold more than 5 % in SE

Exchange, Depository, Insurance cos, banks, public financial institutions to hold up to 15 %

US Improving but Europe in mess (3/4/2012)

US Factory employment index rose in March 2012 to 56.1 from 53.2

Country Unemployment Spain 23.6% Greece 21% Portugal 15% Ireland 14.7% Austria 4.2%

US Back on Track (4/4/2012)

In 2011, US household consumption was $ 10.7 trillion

70 % of GDP of US goes into Household consumption

China size in 2011 was $ 7 trillion Unemployment rate down at 8.3 %

MF Return and their Standard Deviations (9/4/2012)

Funds 1year SD 3year SD 5year SD Small/Mid -0.65 21 31 28 7.93 32 CNXmidcap-4.09 25 31 30 9.72 35 Large cap -7.28 19 22 25 7.25 29 BSE100 -9.23 21 22 27 6.83 31 Sensex -10.5 20 21 26 5.89 30

Close loss making urban bank branches (9/4/2012) India has 60,153 ATM 41 % owned by State Run Banks ATM viable only if 200 transactions per

day is there Private sector bank becomes profitable

within 10 to 12 months of its operations Finance Ministry requires Rs. 3.5 lakh

crore over next 10 years to capitalise state run banks

Close loss making urban bank branches (9/4/2012)

74000 total branches are there in India 20 % are in Rural India Only 5 % of 6 lakh villages in india have

branches (5 % of 6,00,000 = 30000) SBI alone has 16294 ATM

Cheap Swiss Loans for Indian firms (10/4/2012)

Indian firms have raised debt at below 9 % in Switzerland including hedging cost

Local lenders in India would give at 11.5 % to 12%

Hedging cost in Swiss franc is about 10% to 15 % lower than US dollar

Cheap Swiss Loans for Indian firms (10/4/2012)

Company $ million Swiss franc SBI 325 REC 200 EXIM Bank 175 Union Bank 160 IDBI 110

China Surprises with Trade Surplus (11/4/2012) Feb 2012 Trade deficit of $ 31.5 billion March 2012 Trade surplus of $ 5.35 billion Exports to US 10.4 % up Exports to EU 3.1 % down Year Trade surplus 2008 $ 296 2009 $ 196 2010 $ 183 2011 $ 155

SEBI new rule creates problems for PE(11/4/2012) Alternative Investment Funds (AIF)

cannot raise fresh funds unless registered with SEBI

Already PE firms are in midst of raising Rs. 26000 crores

In 2012 till March 2012 No. of PE funds 15 raised $ 2.23 billion

PE real estate funds 9 and raised $ 3.01 billion

SEBI new rule creates problems for PE(11/4/2012)

New AIF rules mandate that investors should minimum invest Rs. 1 crore

Not more than 1000 investors should be there

Private Equity Fund Manager should contribute minimum 2.5 % of total corpus

India Current Account Deficit threatens (11/4/2012) Current Account Deficit 4.3 % of GDP Current Account Deficit should not be more

than 3 % In 1991 crisis CAD had touched 4 % 1991 government had depreciated rupee by 24

% in 3 days Borrowed $ 2.2 billion from IMF Pledged 67 tonnes to gold with Bank of

England and Swizz Bank to raise $ 600 million as foreign flows had dried up.

India per capita income (16/4/2012)

India is above $ 1175 per capita income cut off for consessional IDA funds

2010 per capital GNI (In $) Bangladesh 700 India 1330 Pakistan 1050 Vietnam 1160

FII holding in FMCG (16/4/2012) Company Mar12 Mar11 % rise Colgate 20.20 18.72 1.48 Dabur 18.42 17.22 1.20 Godrej 25.31 19.48 5.83 HUL 19.43 17.26 2.17 ITC 17.40 14.04 3.36 Nestle 11.03 10.55 0.48 Tata Global 9.87 8.04 1.83 GSKconsumer 15.50 12.08 3.42

India to increase IMF quota(23/4/2012)

India quota at IMF would increase from 2.44% to 2.75% after completion of quota reforms

In absolute terms, india quota would increase from SDR(Special Drawing Rights) 5821 million to SDR 13114 million

Indian bond market attractive for FII (23/4/2012) (rs.crore) Year FII Debt 2007 9428 2008 11772 2009 4563 2010 46408 2011 20292 2012 19213 (april 2012) FII can invest $ 15 billion in Govt Bond FII can invest $ 20 billion in Corp Bond Corp bond in US give 1.95% and Germany 1.85 % while

in India it is 9.6 % Indian Govt Bonds yield is 8.2 %

Reliance Result (23/4/2012)

Net Profit down 21 % to Rs. 4236 crores Revenues up 16 % to Rs. 87000 crores Oil and gas revenues fell 36.5% refining and petrochemical segments rose

17.7% and 14% Oil & Gas

Net sales Rs12898 crore versus Rs 17250 crore, down 25.2% YoY

EBIT margin: 40.7% versus 36.8%, y-o-y EBIT margin 3.3% versus 4.3%

GRM $8.6/bbl versus $8.4/bbl

Entry load in MF needed (25/4/2012) Only 200 distributors have gross revenue of Rs.

1 crore Out of this 200, 20 are banks and institutions 16000 odd active distributors only 185 IFA are

earning Rs. 1 crore gross revenue In Singapore front load is 3% and expense ratio

is 2.5 % Investors there pay in excess of 5 % to fund

managers

India to get higher IMF quota (26/4/2012) India will pay Rs. 56,469 crores total for higher quota at

IMF Cash Rs. 14,346 crores Rs. 42,123 crores in local currency bonds Current Proposed Quota 2.44 % 2.75% Vote 2.34% 2.69% Quotas are assigned on basis of country relative position

in world economy. India will be among top 10 countries in terms of quota

FDI Flows (26/4/2012)

Year Rs. Crores 2005-06 24,584 2006-07 56,390 2007-08 98,642 2008-09 1,42,829 2009-10 1,23,120 2010-11 88,520 2011-12 1,33,181

China one child policy hurting ? (27/4/2012) China has currently 120 million people between

20 and 24 years age This would drop by 20 % in next decade 1979 china put one child policy China population will peak at 1.4 billion in 2030 US couples have average 2 children US and Europe took 100 years to become

aging societies, China has taken less than 40 years to become aging society

Mutual funds lose 8 lakh Equity folios (2/4/2012) From Arpil 2011 to march 2012 over 8 lakh

mutual fund equity folios have closed AUM bifurcation (Rs. 5,87,000 crores) Banks/ FI 2.3 % Corporates 43.1% FII 0.7% HNI 26.6% Retail 27.4 %

GDP Growth Result of luck or efforts ? (27/4/2012)(Moneycontrol)

from 1985-86 to 1990-91, the economy grew by an average of 5.6 percent. In the next six years (1991-92 to 1996-97), which included the glory years of Manmohan Singh’s reforms, we grew by all of 5.7 percent. In other words, by just 0.1 percent more, despite the big-bang reforms.

In the six years after that (1997-98 to 2002-03, which covers the second half of the United Front government and most of the NDA), the economy actually tapered down to an average of 5.23 percent, before finally taking off by an average of 8.45 in the next eight years.

The rebound in the economy that started in the last year of the NDA (2003-04) continued till 2010-11 – a full eight years – with a strong dip in 2008-09 during the Lehman crisis.

What this suggests is that it is the 2003-11 period that was the aberration, and not the earlier periods, when we were doing 5-6 percent after reforms. Thus we could revert to this mean if we don’t reform aggressively now. But even if we do reform, we are likely to see a growth slowdown over the next three-to-five years because reform, by definition, means the system will have to adjust to new shocks. Shocks initially bring growth down: in the year after Manmohan Singh’s reforms, India’s GDP growth in 1991-92 crashed to 1.4 percent before rebounding to 5.4 percent.

FCCB Woes for Indian companies (2/5/2012)

Company Issued Outstand Maturity Tata steel 875 382 5sep 12 Tata motors 490 473 12July 12 JP Associate 400 354 12sep 12 JSW steel 325 274 28Jun 12 Suzlon Energy 300 211 12Jun 12

10 Top countries with highest gold reserves (2/5/2012) Country Tonnes % of ForexRes US 8133 77.1 Germany 3396 74 IMF 2814 -- Italy 2451 73.8 France 2435 73.3 China 1054 1.8 Switzerland 1040 18.6 Russia 879 9.7 Japan 765 3.3 Netherlands 612 62.5 Source:- World Gold Council

BASEL III Norms (4/5/2012)

Basel III are guidelines framed by a committee of central banks that s based in Basel, Switzerland. RBI is also member of that committee.

Basel III has introduced many elements of capital such as clearly defined common capital that measures core equity capital in relation to its total risk weighted assets

Incremental equity requirement in Indian banking industry may go up as high as Rs.3.2 – 4 Trillion over next 6 years

BASEL III Norms (4/5/2012)

Banks to maintain minimum 5.5 % in common equity as against 3.6% now by March 31, 2015

Banks must create a capital conservation buffer consisting of common equity of 2.5% by March 31, 2018

Banks should maintain a minimum overall capital adequacy ratio of 11.5% against 9 % by March 31, 2018

Banks must supplement risk based captial ratio by maintaining leverage ratio of 4.5%

Reliance Fined Rs. 6600 crores (4/5/2012) Year Planned output Actual 2009-10 27.62 39.31 2010-11 53.40 48.13 2011-12 61.88 38.61 2012-13 80.00 20.20 2013-14 80.00 14.00 Output fell as RIL did not drill wells as per

Amended Initial Development Plan (AIDP) RIL says drilling more well would not have

helped due to unexpected geological complexitites

PE and P/BV of Blue Chip Stocks (capital market April 2012) page 8

Company Debt/Equity PE P/BV RIL 0.5 12 1.6 Tata Steel 1.9 5.0 1.3 Rcom 0.8 23.3 0.4 ICICI Bank 0.0 16.2 1.8 L&T 1.3 18.7 3.2 DLF 0.8 25.1 1.4 Suzlon 1.8 16.5 0.6 JP Associat 3.5 22.3 1.6

Infrastructure Sector (capital market page 11 april 2012)

Rs. 50 lakh crore in 12th Five year plan (2012-2017) Half to come from private sector Investment in infrastructure was 5.7% of GDP in Eleventh

five year plan and now it is 8% in last year of 12th Five year plan.

FII investment limit in govt bonds, corp bonds increased from $ 5 billion to $ 20 billion in govt bonds and $ 25 billion in corp bonds

Withdrawal tax on interest payment has been reduced from 20 % to 5 % for 3 years

Investment linked deduction for capital expenditure increased at 150 % from 100% cold chain, warehouse, hospitals, fertilizer, affordable housing.

Debentures trading at discount to face value (capital market page 81 april 2012)

Company Rate (%) MP Rating Shiram tran 11.35 995 AA+ Muthoot Fin 12.25 977 AA- IndiaInfoline 11.70 952 AA- Religare Finv 12.25 983 AA- FV Rs. 1000.

Equity for all (8/5/2012)

Equity as an asset class has grown to nearly $ 55 trillion at end of 2010

This is near to 87 % of world GDP India has 1.5 crore individuals out of 2.5

crores tax payees Even if 1 crore invest Rs. 50,000 in Rajiv

Gandhi Equity scheme the corpus comes to be Rs. 50,000 crore

This can act as counter force to FII

Equity for all (8/5/2012)

Rajiv Gandhi Equity Saving Scheme France adopted this strategy in Loi Monory

scheme in late 1970 In five years household investment in France in

equities increased from 7 % to 17% Germany, Belgium and Sweden also copied

this scheme with good results In Sweden one sixth of population was

converted into investors in equity.

World Biggest companies (10/5/2012) ($ billion) Company Sales Market value Exon Mobil 433.5 407.4 JPMorgan Chase 110.8 170.1 General Electric 147.3 213.7 Royal Dutch Shell 470.2 227.6 ICBC 82.6 237.4 HSBC Holding 102 164.3 PetroChina 310.1 294.7 Berkshire Hathway 143.7 202.2 Wells Fargo 87.6 178.8 Petrobras Brasil 145.9 180.0

Mumbai Home Prices (14/5/2012)

Avg price per square feet (Rs) June 2008 8100 June 2009 5600 March 2012 10833 Total unsold stock is 120.42 million

square feet. At current absorption rate, it could take 40 months to get rid of this inventory

Mumbai Home Prices (14/5/2012)

No of months needed to sell Inventory (2011-12)

Q1 40 Q2 36 Q3 44 Q4 40 Sales are up 3 % from year ago and 20

% since last quarter

Inflation rises (14/5/2012)

Inflation spiked to 7.23% on the back of higher manufacturing and food inflation. Analysts on average had expected it around 6.7%.

Sensex 1986 to 2012 (17/5/2012)

Event Year High Low Harshad scam 92 4487 2131 Dotcom Bust 2000 5934 3181 Global melt 2008 20827 8966 Euro 2010 20852

15175

Sensex 1986 to 2012 (17/5/2012)

Year Min Ret Max Ret prob of loss 1 year -25.3 % 84.5% 25.8% 2 year -15.4% 66.1% 20.0% 3 year -11.7% 58.3% 6.9% 5 year -3.4% 44.8% 7.0% 10 year 1 % 31.1% 0.0%

Spain again into Recession (18/5/2012)

Spain has again slipped into recession It has go offer 5 % to attract buyers with

year of 5.106 % vs 3.374 % for 3 year bonds

Rupee vs IT sector (18/5/2012)

1 % fall in rupee results in 30-40 basis point rise in operating margins

Out of $ 100 billion export revenue of IT and BPO of Indian sector, 58 % was from US.

Gold demand in China more than India (18/5/2012)

India gold demand at 207.6 tonnes China gold demand at 255 tonnes Gold ETF have grown 3 times in last one

year AUM of Gold ETF is Rs. 9614 crore in

January 2012 vs Rs 3518 crores in January 2011

PE/VC Investment in Healthcare (18/5/2012) In Care Hospitals – Advent India PE

invested Rs. 560 crores In Vasan Healthcare – Govt of

Singapore investment corp invested Rs. 543 crores

Moolchand healthcare – Seqola Capital invested Rs. 100 crores

Wellspring Healthcare – Reliance venture capital invested Rs. 20.5 crores

Foreign claims on India $ 137 billion due in 1 year (18/5/2012)

As per Bank for International Settlement, claim due on india in next one year is $ 137 billion

Currently india has $ 293 billion forex reserves European banks account for 40 % of India total

foreign dues Leaving UK out, India Euro Zone exposure is

about $ 60 billion which is 3.4 % of India GDP

Face book IPO big hit (19/5/2012) the company's closely watched stock began

trading at USD 42.05, compared with an IPO price of USD 38 .

USD 18.4 billion in one of the biggest initial public offerings in US history.

With a value of USD 104 billion, Facebook became the first American company to debut at over a USD 100 billion. It is larger than Starbucks Corp and Hewlett-Packard combined.

The website, founded in a Harvard dorm room in 2004, has grown into the world's dominant social network with 900 million users.

Facebook highly overvalued (21/5/2012)

PE for face book is at 108 PE for market in US 14 PE for Google is 18 Price to Sales Facebook 26 Price to Sales LinkedIn 17 Google makes $ 35 for each user which

is 7 times more than Facebook

Black Money – A Hype (22/5/2012)(Rs.crore)

Indian deposits in Swiss Banks Year ExRate Liability % of towardIndian total Liabi 2010 47.79 9295 0.13 2009 45.19 8879 0.13 2008 45.52 10924 0.12 2007 34.79 14979 0.18 2006 36.17 23373 0.29

Black Money – A Hype (22/5/2012)(Rs.crore)

FDI Inflows (2001 to 2011) Mauritius 41.80% Japan 4.07% Singapore 9.17% Cyprus 3.71% USA 7.28% Germany

2.31% UK 5.12% France

1.75% Netherland 4.39% UAE 1.46%

Black Money – A Hype (22/5/2012)(Rs.crore)

Swiss bank liability towards countries in 2010

Foreigners hold More Money Offshore financial centre 28.9% UK 21.5% USA 15.8% European countries 6.8% Germany 3.6%

Corporate Debt Restructuring becomes more strict (22/5/2012)

CDR is a platform where lenders and corporates meet to restructure loan

Objective is to ensure that company does enter financial trap

Company promoters misuse company funds and then go to CDR

Banks now to hike promoter contribution to 20-25 % and seek personal guarantee

Banks to have power to change incompetent management if found diversion of funds or misuse of funds

Banks have to restructure loans worth Rs. 1,50,000 crores

India still better than world (23/5/2012)

GDP 2011 2012 2013 USA 1.7 2.4 2.6 UK 0.7 0.5 1.9 Eurozone 1.5 -0.1 0.9 OECD 1.8 1.6 2.2 China 9.2 8.3 9.3 India 7.3 7.1 7.7

IPO fails (30/5/2012)

Year IPO % Sensex% 3 years -18.69 4.71 1 year -18.59 -10.12 6 months 1.79 1.54

Venture Funding picking up (31/5/2012)

From January to May 2012 64 new start up got Rs. 1351 crores of venture funding

In 2011, funding in first time ventures crossed $ 1 billion mark

GDP at 9 year low (31/5/2012)

GDP at 5.3 % which is at 9 year low India’s economy grew 5.3% during

January-March (Q4), the eighth successive quarterly decline, and the slowest pace in nine years. For the full year, the economy grew 6.5%.

India's fiscal deficit during the 2011-12 fiscal year that ended in March was Rs 5,20,000 crore, or equivalent to 5.9% of India's gross domestic product

Why buy gold ? (4/6/2012)

35 % buy for auspicious events like marriage,

20 % buy as investment 16% buy as back up for bad times 15 % buy for giving gifts 8% impulses or no reason 6% Fond of gold

Eurozone revamp (4/6/2012)

July 9 is the deadline for creating Permanent Euro Area Rescue fund, the $ 620 billion European Stability Mechanism

Indian Inc Improving but slowly (4/6/2012) Analysis of 2302 companies in march 2012 Revenue increased by 13.5% yoy Net Profit fall 8 % in March 2012 as compared

to 20.6 % in Dec 2011 and 37.9% in Sep 2011 Operating Profit margin at 14.3 % Interest cost jumped to 47.4% to Rs.30,123

crores is at record high in history of Indian Inc. Interest Coverage Ratio is at 3.8 vs 3.4 which is

heartening (ICR should go up)

FII net sellers in May (7/6/2012) FII were net sellers to the tune of Rs.

1100 crores in May FII confidence low as policy paralysis

hitting all reforms Month FII flows (Rs.Crores) Jan-Feb + 44000 crores March + 8000 crores April - 777 crores May - 1100 crores

China cuts rate (8/6/2012)

China has cut one year deposit rate from 3.5 % to 3.25 %

Lending rate cut from 6.56 % to 6.31% Rate cut after 2008 to boost economy

Active managed funds create wealth (11/6/2012) Fund 5 years return % IDFC premier equity 15.31 UTI opportunities 12.69 ING Vysya Dividend yield 12.16 Birla Sun life Dividend yield 11.92 UTI MNC 11.78 Birla Sun life MNC 11.70 Tata Dividend Yield 11.45 UTI Dividend yield 11.42 ICIC Pru Discovery fund 11.13 HDFC Top 200 10.12 Canara Robeco Equity 10.16 NIFTY INDEX 3.54%

Years of NIL return from Indexes world over (11/6/2012) Country Years with NIL return Japan Nikki 225 29.3 Spain IBEX 35 15.12 France CAC 40 14.95 UK FTSE 100 14.45 Germany DAX 13.95 US Nasdaq 12.95 Russia Micex 6.36 US Dow Jones 5.53 China Shangai 5.53 Brazil 5.03 India Sensex 4.78 From 1992 to 2003 Sensex actually reduced by 33 % i.e long

holding of 11 years

FII no and sub accounts (11/6/2012)

As on June 8, the number of registered FIIs in the country stood at 1,754 and total number of sub-accounts were 6,343 during the same period.

Gold Prices reality (14/6/2012)

In FY 2011-12, India imported $ 56 billion worth of Gold

August 1, 2011 gold was $ 1621 per ounce June 8, 2012 gold was $ 1571 per ounce Loss of 3 % But during the same period Rupee depreciated

from Rs. 44.07 to 55.62 per USD Rupee fell by 26.19 % Gold during period rise from Rs.23150 to Rs.

29680 per 10 grams

PE Struggle to Exit broking houses (15/6/2012) ($ million) Company PE Stake

Amt Prime Security Newvernon 6.8 12.4 Bonanza Gaja capital 11.6 5.94 Karvy Baring Asia ICIC venture 40 110 Angel IFC 12.5 37 PL Balyasny 2.8 10 JRG Baring India 45.9 35 Anandrathi Citi 19.83 20

Motilal Oswal raises Rs. 475 crores for 2nd PE fund (20/6/2012)

Motilal Oswal has raised Rs. 475 crores Out of 475 crores – Rs. 100 crores from

Hong kong based Sqandran Capital Advisor

Remaining Rs. 375 crore from HNI investors

“Rcom poster boy for everything that could go wrong” (20/6/2012)

Neeraj Monga of Veritas Investment Research believes various mergers and amalgamations have led to the Rs 22,000 crore “inflated book equity” of Reliance Communications

The stock is trading at Rs 60. So the market doesn’t really believe in the book value of the company. We’ve just come out and said it very clearly,” he claims.

In its June 8 report, the Canada-based equity research had assigned a value of Rs 15 to the stock of Anil Ambani-promoted telecom firm, citing high debt, "whimsical" accounting policies and poor corporate governance standards as the key reasons.

India contributes to IMF war chest (21/6/2012) Country Contribution to IMF India $ 10 billion Brazil $ 10 billion Russia $ 10 billion China $ 43 billion South Africa $ 2 billion

IMF will issue bonds and pay interest to countries. This is war chest that IMF has made which has $ 456 billion but target is to create $ 550 billion

Electricity shortfall (21/6/2012)

Region Installed Supply Shortfall North 49919 39798 10121 West 57108 46330 10778 South 39645 32763 6882 East 29802 21057 8745 N East 2095 1697 399 This reduces industrial production and adds to

idle capacity causing losses to companies Figures in Mega watts

Manufacturing slows down world over (22/6/2012) China factory sector shrank for eight

straight month in June PMI fall to seven month low of 48.1 in

June from 48.4 US PMI has come down to 52.9 from

54.0 10 year Spain and Italy bonds are

quoting 7 % yield showing that attracting investors is becoming more difficult

Claim Settlement Ratio for insurance firms (22/6/2012)

Company Settlement Ratio Pending % LIC 97.03 1.46 HDFC life 95.41 0.61 Birla sun life 94.66 0.35 ICICI 94.61 2.25 ING Vysya 90.49 5.19 Private Sector

(overall) 86.05 5.01

PMLA getting tough (22/6/2012)

69,224 suspicious transactions received by FIU India

53,384 reports were forwarded to Law Enforcement agencies and Intelligence agency

Travel agents, vehicle dealers have to report to FIU Ind for suspicious dealings

Weak show of MF SEBI ask questions (22/6/2012)

SEBI planning to call MF fund managers who have consistently performed badly

Scheme Return% Benchmark % JM Basic -10.30 5.52 Escorts Power -9.17 -13.05 JM Core 11 -9.07 5.17 SBI Infra fund -5.96 5.22 L&T Infra -5.56 5.87

FCCB Issuers may Default (22/6/2012) 3i infotech, Great offshore and Hotel Leela

ventures may default 48 companies hold FCCB that mature this year Value of FCCB maturing this year $ 5 billion of

which $ 2.1 billion will come up for June and July 2012

Rupee in 2007-08 Was Rs. 42 per $ In 2012 it is Rs. 56 per $ The depreciation could add Rs. 10,000 crore on

redemptions

CCI imposes Rs. 6307 crore fine on 11 cement companies (20/6/2012)

Company Penalty (Rs. Crore) Jaiprakash Asso 1323 Ultra Tech cement 1175 Ambuja Cement 1163 ACC 1147 Lafarge India 480 Century Textiles 274 Madras cement 258 India cement 187 Binani cement 167 JK cement 128 CMA 0.73

FMC cautions for trade changes code (26/6/2012) Client code modification is done to transfer

trade from one account to another account It is mostly done in Jan, Feb and March to avoid

tax From October 2011 to march 2012 CCM was

1373 from 1,00,620 in October 2010 to March 2011

In terms of volume it has reduced from Rs. 25000 crore to Rs. 216 crore

FII power (28/6/2012)

FII have assets under custody of more than $ 200 billion

17 % of market capitalization 40% of free float shares in Indian stock

market FII invested $ 32 billion in Indian debt

market

Bittersweet Ethanol Pricing (28/6/2012)

Government has decided Rs. 27 per litre for ethanol to be sold to oil companies

Earlier price was Rs. 21 per litre Oil companies say that cost of making

petrol is Rs. 23 per litre and paying more than this for making ethanol will make blending unviable

On mobile Corporate Governance issues (29/6/2012)

KPMG checking Onmobile books for financial bungling Rs. 3000 crore mkt value in 2008

Rs. 400 crore current market value CEO Arvind Rao who is founder is at center of

investigation for taking away funds Again Corporate Governance issue shows that

wealth of shareholders destroyed Stock trading at Rs. 33 lowest in lifetime

Monsoon Vs India (2/7/2012)

Share of Agri & Allied activity in GDP (%) Year % 1970-71 43.9 1980-81 38.3 1990-91 33.0 2000-01 25.3 2011-12 16.0 Store capacity in large dams was 177 billion

cubic meter in 1995 which is currently at 253 billion cubic meter

Monsoon Vs India (2/7/2012)

Rainfall % of normal Agri Growth % 2007-08 106 % 5.5 2008-09 98% 0.4 2009-10 78% 1.7 2010-11 102% 7.0 2011-12 101% 2.8

Monsoon Vs India (2/7/2012)

Monsoon Deviation % Inflation % 2007-08 6% 4.8% 2008-09 -2 % 8.0% 2009-10 -22% 3.6% 2010-11 2 % 8.6% 2011-12 1 % 8.8%

Textile sector loan recast (2/7/2012)

Textile sector has debt of Rs. 35000 crore

35 million workers work in textile sector The package involves Rs. 22000 crore

term loan, Rs. 5500 crore working capital loan and Rs. 7500 crore loan for SME units.

Airlines Industry wants FDI (3/7/2012)

Airlines Industry growing at 20 % per annum

By 2015, 180 million people in India to travel by airways

Indian Aviation sector 9th largest in world

Barclay CEO Robert Diamond in LIBOR mess (5/7/2012)

Robert Diamond the CEO of Barclay bank has step down

Barclay has been accused in manipulating LIBOR which is international rate for lending and borrowing.

PE investors invest in real estate (5/7/2012)

Target Acquirer RS crore Sheth Devel Morgan stanley 461 3C company Red Fort 150 RMZ Corp Baring Pvt Equ 500 Phoenix Ascendas 176 Suntech Reality Kotak 310

Globally banks cut rates (6/7/2012)

ECB cuts rates by 0.25 % which now bring rate to 0.75 %

China reduced 1 year lending rates by 31bps and deposit rate by 25 bps

Mumbai real estate slow down (6/7/2012)

In Mumbai 80,000 residential units are unsold

Value comes to Rs. 1,00,000 crore Buyers shun property market due to poor

sentiment and higher Interest rates

Reasons for China slowdown (9/7/2012) China has $ 2.5 trillion forex reserve but household and

corporation debt is 120 % of GDP and including banks it goes to 200% of GDP

Real estate bubble as $ 10 trillion is in money circulation than in US $ 8 trillion

China has invested 9 % of GDP in real estate which is now bubble which is even higher than Japan and US which was real estate bust in 2007

In last 3 decades research on 124 nations shows that 52 % were democratic and 48 % authoritarian. Political system does’nt matter for growth

EU stock market return post Euro introduction (9/7/2012) Returns since euro launched Belgium -37 % Finland -8% France -20% Germany -28% Greece -77% Ireland -36% Italy -58% Netherlands -42% Portugal -57% Spain -42%

MF Distributes commission despite ban (11/7/2012) Top 240 distributors have earned Rs. 1830

crore commission in FY 12 This is 8 % more than last year HSBC, HDFC and Citibank have earned the

most 30,000 small agents are out of business since

they could not run without commission 45 % of equity fund sales comes from

Independent Advisors as against 29 % by banks

Banks mobilize NRE deposits (11/7/2012)

Banks mobilize $ 10 billion through NRE deposits

Banks are offering 9 % to NRE deposits for one year

Arbitrage funds score over debt and equity funds (17/7/2012)

Arbitrage Funds 1 year return (%) IDFC 9.8 JM 9.4 UTI spread 9.3 Reliance arbitrage 9.2 SBI arbitrage 9.1 HDFC arbitrage 8.9 Kotak equity arbitrage 8.9 Religare arbitrage 8.8 Debt funds have given avg return of 8.4 % while

equity funds value dipped by 4.1 %

Gold demand rises (30/7/2012) Indian households have $ 950 billion

gold US Mine production data 2010 231 tonnes 2011 237 tonnes US Geelogical survey reports US has

3000 tonnes of Gold reserves North America accounted for 16.1 % of

total output in 2011

Gold funds failed as compared to Gold ETF (30/7/2012)

Funds One year return % SBI Gold ETF 28.04 Reliance Gold ETF 28.03 Religare gold ETF 28.01 UTI gold ETF 27.97 Quantum gold 27.96 DSP Blackrock world gold -11.5 AIG world gold fund -16.5

FII buys in July (30/7/2012)

During July 3-27, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were gross buyers of shares worth Rs 44,192 crore, while they sold equities amounting to Rs 35,768 crore, translating into a net inflow of Rs 8,424 crore

After taking the latest inflows into account, FIIs investment in the equity market stood at Rs 50,417 crore so far in 2012 and Rs 24,048 crore into the debt market during the same period.

As on July 27, the number of registered FIIs in the country stood at 1,756 and total number of sub-accounts were 6,341 during the same period.

FII investment in 2012 in Rs. Crore (2/8/2012)

Month Net FII Flow January 10357 February 25212 March 8381 April -1109 May -347 June -501 July 10271

Proposed STT to hurt market

AT present investor pays Rs. 100 per Rs. 1 lakh turnover on delivery base tranaction

Rs. 17.33 per lakh on sale of derivatives.

Service tax of 12.36%

This increases the transaction cost

Eye on low tax paying sector (4/9/2012)

Corporate tax is 30% but average tax rate comes to 24 %

Certain taxes are in range of 10% to 22%

If the average tax rate is incresed from 24 % to 26% then also govt will get Rs. 30,000 crores

Exports down 35 month low (4/9/2012)

For april to july 2012, exports have fallen by 5% to % 97.6 billion compared with $ 102.8 billion las year

Slow down in exports clear show that world economy is slowing

PMI data for world (4/9/2012)

Countries July August India 52.9 52.8 Russia 52.0 51.0 UK 45.2 49.5 China 49.3 47.6 France 43.4 46.0 Germany 43.0 44.7 Spain 42.3 44.0

Two wheelers on bumpy road (6/9/2012)

Company Fall in sales in August Hero Motocorp - 12 % Bajaj Auto - 14% Hondo motorcycle 39 % TVS - 17% Suzuki Motorcycle 36 % Mahindra - 34 %

MCX-SX, BSE and NSE fees

MCX-SX NSE BSE Admission 5 lac 5 lakh 5000(Eq +FO) 2.5 lac equity

Deposit 20 lac 1.5cr 30 lac 75lac(eq)

Networth 30lac 1 cr 30lac(Eq) 75 lac 25lac (FO)

Companies paying less than 24 % effective tax rate (7/9/2012 BS)

Company Effective Tax (%) Ranbaxy - 8.1 Cairn India 4.4 Reliance infra 9.7 Sun Pharma 11.4 Bank of Baroda 17.3 HCL Tech 17.4 Tata Motors 18.7 Maruti 19.5

Companies paying less than 24 % effective tax rate (7/9/2012 BS)

Company Effective tax (%) RIL 20.6 Hindalco 21.3 Wipro 22.7 HUL 23.0 NTPC 23.6

Infosys Acquisitions (11/9/2012) April 2006 Citigroup stake in Piegon for Rs. 518 crore Nov 2009 Infosys BPO buys Atlants based McCannish system

for Rs. 177 crores Dec 2011 Infosys BPO buys Australia based firm for Rs. 194

crore July 2007 Buys captive BPO centre of Royal Phillips Electronics

for Rs. 110 crore

June 2011 Acquires software solutions of Gen-I for Rs. 18 crore

September 2012 Acquires switzerland based management consultancy firm lodestone holding for Rs. 1932 crore

Infosys deal costly (11/9/2012)

Axon Lodestone Deal value ($mil) 658 349 Deal value/revenue(times) 1.3 1.6 No of consultants 2500 750 Cost per consultant 1.5crore 2.6 cr

External Debt worrisome (11/9/2012) ( $ billion)

India external debt in last 5 years FY07 172 FY08 222 FY09 224 FY10 260 FY11 305 FY12 345

India current account deficit (11/9/2012)

FY08 1.3 % FY09 2.3% FY10 2.8% FY11 2.7% FY12 4.2%

RBI raises ceiling for external commercial borrowings (Moneycontrol 12/9/2012)

As per the new regulation, a company can borrow offshore funds to the tune of 75% of the average foreign exchange earnings in the immediate past three years or 50% of the highest foreign exchange earnings realized in any of those three years, whichever is higher.

Currently, a company is allowed to raise 50% of the average annual export earnings during the same time mentioned above.

Indian Industry capital investment lowest in 5 years (17/9/2012)

Gross fixed assets grew at 12.3 % in FY12 vs 34% and 26 % in two years to FY08

3 out of 8 companies in Nifty reported lower growth

RIL, Ultratech, Ambuja cement, BHEL, Crompton greaves

PSU investments targets (17/9/2012)

Company Rs. Crore Coal India 4000 in 12-13 NPTC 20,000 BHEL 10,260 (next 5 year) ONGC 1,65,000 during 12 plan SAIL 45000 on projects Rs. 1.8 lakh crore cash pile of nine blue

chip PSU

RBI cuts CRR (18/9/2012)

RBI cuts CRR rate by 25 basis point Now CRR is at 4.5 % which was earlier

4.75 % This would release Rs. 17000 crore into

the banking system

FII inflows strong (19/9/2012)

In year 2012, FII have invested Rs. 61000 crores ($ 13.7 billion) so far

DII have sold Rs. 32000 crores shares highest since 2005

FII invested Rs. 6135 crores after Govt announced reforms

Swiss bourse woos Indian firms (19/9/2012)

Switzerland is home to $ 4000 billion assets and world leader in cross border private banking with market share of 30 %

Under Swiss law, Swiss Exchange enjoys self regulatory powers

RCOM to raise tariff (21/9/2012)

Reliance communication has decided to raise tariff by 25 %

The base price will be increased from 1.2 paise to 1.5 paise per second

Retail industry world wide (21/9/2012)

Global Retail industry by 2017 would be $ 20 trillion

In India share of organized retail 5 - 6 % Brazil share of organized retail 36 % China share of organized retail 20 % Indonesia share of organized retail 30 %

Companies with good ROCE (21/9/2012) Company FY10 FY11 FY12 Idea cellular 8.3 7.3 9.4 Reliance cap 8.9 7.0 13.5 JP power ven 8.4 4.4 7.2 GMR infra 4.0 0.0 3.7 Indian Hotels 3.1 0.0 5.8

Rs. 15 lakh invested in these companies becomes Rs. 45 lakh in 5 years

Reforms bring FII back (24/9/2012) In 2012, FII have invested net Rs. 73,130 crore

in equities On average FII purchased daily stocks worth

Rs. 395 crores on each trading day in 2012 On average mutual fund investors withdrew Rs.

64 crores every trading day in 2012 More than 10 lakh equity folios of retail and HNI

were closed between sep 2011 and March 31 2012

FII have invested Rs. 25977 crores in debt in 2012

Euro zone to have two funds (24/9/2012)

European Stability Mechanism (ESM) European Financial Stability Facility

(EFSF) Total bailout fund of $ 2 trillion to ensure

that even big economies are bailed out

Rajiv Gandhi Equity scheme (24/9/2012 Direct retail investment in equities eligible for the scheme Listed Mutual funds and ETF to be included Rs. 50,000 to be invested and 50 % of that to get as tax

deduction Only Income up to Rs. 10 lakh eligible BSE 100, CNX 100 and shares of PSU above Rs. 4000

crore of turnover eligible securities for investment One can book the profit after one year but principle

remain lock for 3 years

SIP stood test of time (26/9/2012)

SIPs have given on average 15 % since 2007

Sensex has given 7.5 % since 2007 Scheme 3 year 5 year SBI magnum emerging 18.52 21.33 ICICI Pru Discovery 9.91 19.15 Reliance Equity Oppor 12.85 19.07 HDFC Mid cap Oppor 11.55 17.96

SIP stood test of time (26/9/2012)

Scheme 3 year 5 year IDFC Premier equity 9.51 16.67 Canera Rebeco emer 10.06 15.75 UTI opportunities 10.40 15.31 ING dividend yield 6.85 15.25

Invesco buys 49% in Religare AMC (28/9/2012)

US based Invesco mutual fund has picked up 49 % stake in Religare Mutual fund for about Rs. 460 crore valuing the company that has assets under management of Rs 14600 crores at about Rs. 950 crore.

The deal is valued at 6.4 % of closing AUM

SME hit by loan restructuring (3/10/2012)

In first half of 2012, CDR cell has received 69 applications of SME wroth Rs. 37,547 crores for restructuring

Last year 35 cases worth Rs. 27,753 crore were reported to CDR

FII big buys in Sep (3/10/2012)

FII buys record shares worth Rs. 19000 crores in September 2012

The highest in one month in this calender year

MF AUM distribution (3/10/2012) MF assets from top 5 cities City % of AUM Mumbai 44.4 Delhi 13.7 Bangalore 5.43 Kolkata 5.3 Chennai 4.6 MF can now charge unit holders additional 30

basis point over 2.25 if they raised 30 % of inflows from place outside top 15 cities

MF Asset beyond top 15 cities (3/10/2012) City % of AUM Gurgaon 0.52 Bhubaneswar 0.47 Cochin 0.42 Ludhiana 0.41 Patna 0.36 Nagpur 0.35 Indore 0.33 Rajkot 0.31 Nasik 0.29 Coimbatore 0.26

Bank deposit reduce (4/10/2012)

Bank deposit grew by 13.7 % which was less than RBI projection of 16 %

Bank loans grew by 16.4 % as against RBI projection of 17%

Companies paying dividend for last 10 years (4/10/2012)

Company Total dividend 10 yr % retrn paid in 10 yr % Hero Motor 19700 20.23 Infosys 8265 16.19 JSPL 2670 42.35 HCL tech 4675 21.52 ITC 3850 25.75 ONGC 3040 11.38

Companies paying dividend for last 10 years (4/10/2012)

Company Total dividend 10 yr % retrn paid in 10 yr % Grasim 2200 18.10 HDFC 2745 22.61 Cummin India 3580 22.95 MRF 2400 21.63 Hindalco 1650 4.68 Britannia 2230 15.53

IMF cuts India’s growth (10/10/2012)

IMF has cut india GDP growth forecast to 4.9%

In first half, our economy has grew 5.4 %

Rise in urea prices (12/10/2012)

Urea prices increased by Rs. 50 Farmers now will pay Rs. 5360 per tonne

as compared to Rs.5310 Rs. 70,000 spend on subsidy out of

which 33 % goes for urea Price rise happened after 2 years Last time it was in 2010

Trade Deficit at 11 month high (12/10/2012)

Trade deficit at 11 month high at $ 18 billion

This increases current account deficit Currently Current Account Deficit is 4.3

% of GDP

Warren Buffet uses facebook for sales (12/10/2012)

Buffer insurance brokeage unit in india would sell insuracne at 7.5 % discount

It will use face book for selling their product

One year old car insurance for Honda city Rs. 11917 with Tata AIG, Rs. 13000 with ICICI Lombard and with Berkshire the cost comes to Rs. 11595

Big Brokers pay less Advance tax (12/10/2012) (Rs. In crore)

Company Current Last year % chg Citigroup 5 20 -75 Morgan Stanley 21 47 -55 Franklin Temple 5.8 9.9 -41 JP Morgan 9.15 15 -39 Sharekhan 7.5 5.5 36 Kotak 10 7 43

Suzlon defaults (12/10/2012)

Total debt on Suzlon books Rs. 14035 crore in March 2012 vs Rs. 12,241 in March 2011

Cash balance in march 2012 is only Rs. 262 crores

Defaulted for $ 209 million payment to bond holders

India housing market huge scope (15/10/2012)

Outstanding housing loans as proportion to GDP is 80 % in USA

It is 20 % in China India has this ratio of 8 %

FII rise stake in Nifty companies (15/10/2012) In July – Sep Quarter, FII have pumped in Rs.

38,000 crore while DII sold Rs. 18800 crores Company Rise in FII stake (%) Cairn India 7.67 Axis bank 5.52 IDFC 2.12 HDFC 1.98 ICICI BANK 1.55 FII have increased their stake in 23 Nifty

companies and 101 of BSE 500 companies

IPO norms under SEBI scrutiny (16/10/2012) Companies cannot use more than 25 %of the proceeds

from IPO for “General Corporate Purpose” Issue related expense cannot be part of General

Corporate Purpose expense Merchant banker to declare itself as Marketing Lead

Manager Minimum application amount increased from Rs. 10,000

to Rs. 15,000 Issuer has to allot minimum lot of shares to each retail

investor

Mumbai share in NSE 62 % (25/10/2012)

City Aug 12 FY2011-12 Mumbai 62% 60.40% Ahmedabad 4.9% 6.10% Delhi 8.3% 8.4% Chennai 1.5% 1.4% Kolkata 7.6% 8.6% Rajkot 1.2% 1.4%

Mumbai share in NSE 62 % (25/10/2012)

City Aug 12 FY2011-12 Mumbai 50.19% 37.40% Ahmedabad 8.0% 9.5% Delhi 4.43% 10.9% Chennai 0.53% 0.40% Koltaka 6.20% 5.0% Rajkot 4.16% 4.9%

Public sector banks risk at laons (29/10/2012)

Rs. 13000 crores stuck in Deccan holding, KFA

Rs. 7000 crores in KFA of 11 PSU banks Net NPA ratio of PSU banks in 2011-12

is 1.53 which was 1.09 in 2010-11 Net NPA ratio of Private banks was 0.46

in 2011-12 and 0.56 in 2010-11

RBI cuts only CRR (31/10/2012)

RBI reduced CRR by 0.25 % Now CRR is 4.25 % It will release Rs. 17,500 crores in the

system Repo rate kept unchanged at 8 %

Core sector grows (1/11/2012)

Core sector of 8 Industries grew 5.1 % in September

Reviving the hopes of recovery Coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery

products, fertilizers, steel, cement and electricity are core sector

It accounts for 38 % weight age in IIP

India Inc. having problems of stress (2/11/2012)

66 % of working professionals feel lonely 77% want to share their high and lows

with someone 63% work harder than they want due to

competitive environment 57% loosing touch with emotional side

due to over dependence on technology

India valuations (20/11/2012)

Sensex has given 18 % return this year, the most in BRIC

FII have purchased $ 18.7 billion of indian shares this year

Country PE ratio Sensex 15 Brazil 16 Russia 5.6 Shanghai 9.6 MSCI Emerging index 11.2

Debt Equity Ratio (20/11/2012)

Sector FY01 FY12 Oil and gas 0.6 0.4 Power 0.6 1.1 Steel 2.4 1.0 Telecom 0.2 1.4 Automobile 0.6 0.5 Non-ferrous metal 0.3 0.1 Textile 0.9 1.0 Infrastructure 0.8 2.0 Cement 1.6 0.1 Pharma 0.3 0.2 Average debt equity ratio of Indian companies has increased from 0.36

to 0.79 from 2005 to 2012

IKEA gets a FIPB nod to set up shop in India (21/11/2012)

IKEA to invest Rs. 10,500 crores or 1.9 $ billion

It has 336 stores in 44 countries

NIM of Indian Banks (26/11/2011) Banks NIM % (2QFY 13) Andhra bank 3.1 Bank of Baroda 2.7 Indian bnak 3.1 Punjab National bank 3.5 SBI 3.3 Union bnak 3.0 J & K bank 3.9 Axis bank 3.5 Hdfc bank 4.2 ICICI bank 3.0 IDFC 4.1

FII investment (26/11/2012)

FII have invested net $ 19 billion so far in indian stock market

This is second highest inflow by FIIs in calender year.

In 2010 FII had made net investment of about $ 29 billion

BSE remains top Bourse(26/11/2012)

BSE has become world first stock exchange in terms of listed companies

It has 5174 listed companies This data is given by World Federation of

Exchange (WFE)

Direct invest plans in MF from January 1 2013 (26/11/2012) Direct plans good for those who have expertise

to invest on own Plans to be cheaper by 50 – 75 basis points as

customer wont have to pay any fund distribution charges

Small investors may also shift to direct plans which may not be good for new investors at outset

Distributor community may have to start looking at alternate sources of business like Insurance and real estate

SEBI on shareholding (26/11/2012)

Company Promoter Holding Wipro 78.3% Jet airways 80% DLF 78.6% Essar Shipping 83.7% Jaypee Infra 83.3% Larson Tubro 82.6% Indian Bank 80% State bank of mysore 92.3%

Greece Rescue plan works (28/11/2012)

Greece got 40 Billion Euro tranche which has rescued it

It has to reduced debt to 124 % of GDP by 2020

Indian GDP in trouble (28/11/2012) Indian GDP growth may dip to 4.5 % this year

as per OECD World growth estimated to only 2.9% as earlier

projection of 3.4% Projected rise in world trade Year % 2012 2.8 2013 4.7 2014 6.8

I Bankers at job risk(28/11/2012)

Since mid 2011, nearly 15000 I bankers have lost their jobs

Nearly 25000 I banker jobs on the block as slump bites

Companies looking to shrink manpower with decisions on fund raising and takeover being put off

SEBI caps charge on Institutional brokerage(28/11/2012)

The regulator has fixed 12 basis point (0.12%) on equity and 5 basis point (0.05%) on derivatives trade

It would come effect from 19th November Large broking houses spend Rs 40 crore

on research while mid size broking spends Rs. 40 to 50 lakhs on individual company research

Cap on brokerage has negative effect

Moody upgrades India (28/11/2012)

Moody reaffirmed India “Stable” outlook which was liked by investors world over.

Sensex went up by 305 point This shows strength of positive rating

Banks exposure to real estate (29/11/2012) Bank Exposure (Rs. Crore) SBI 1,44,668 ICICI 81,422 Axis 52,730 PNB 48,475 IDBI Bank 36,785 Bank of Baroda 27,157 Standard Charter 26,082 HDFC 25,020 Bank of India 24,050

Loans slow down (3/12/2012)

Personal loan grows at 23 % against 9 % last year which is unhealthy

Loan under credit cards have rise by 17 % against 5 % last year

Housing loans falls to 12% from 17 % Consumer durables lending also falls by 17 % Unsecured personal loans are the most risky

loans as bad debt probability is high

Banking Bill open doors for future trading (11/12/2012)

Banking bill allows banks to trade in futures trading

To raise voting rights of stakeholders in private banks to 26 % from 10%

To raise voting rights of shareholders in nationalised banks from 1 % to 10%

FII pumps in huge money (11/12/2012)

FII have invested $ 21 billion pushing Sensex 26 % up in this calendar year

Highest among the BRIC nations

Bankers and ARC laud debt recovery (11/12/2012)

Enforcement of Security Interest and Recovery of Debts Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2011 was approved in parliament

It seeks to convert any part of the debt into shares of the defaulting company by an asset reconstruction company (ARC)

Pledge shares (12/12/2012 %

HDIL 96% INDIAN CEMENTS 67% UNITECH 79% JAIN IRRIGATION 48% PANTALOONS RETAILS 62% JSW STEEL 50% WELSPUN CORP 47% UNITED SPIRITS 98% SUZLON ENERGY 96% JP POWER 72% DISH TV 45% ZEE ENTERTAINMENT 31% JSW ENERGY 33% BHUSHAN STEEL 34% CROMPTON GREAVES 35% SINTEX INDUSTRIES 37%

IIP data shoots up but on low base effect (13/12/2012) Month IIP Growth (%) Jan 2012 1 % Feb 4.3% April -1.3% May 2.5% June -2.0% July -0.1% August 2.3% Sep -0.7% October 8.2%

New reforms by govt (14/12/2012)

Clears urea investment policy (sector should see investment of Rs. 35000 crores)

National Investment Board to be called as Cabinet Committee on Investment headed by PM.

Fast execution of projects more than Rs. 1000 crores

Domestic Institutions net sellers (14/12/2012)

DII have been highest sellers to the tune of Rs. 51000 crores

Highest selling in history of Indian capital market in one year

SEBI announces steps to prevent flash crash (14/12/2012)

First check on value of order, any single buy or sale order above Rs. 10 crore would not be accepted in normal market

Next check is in margin with exchange When broker position exceeds 90 % of

margin-collateral the broker limit is freezed and only squaring allowed

LIC makes huge profit (17/12/2012)

Rs. 22000 crores invested by LIC into the market in 2012

Rs. 21000 crores of shares sold by LIC in 2012

Made a profit of Rs. 11000 crores this year and had made profit of Rs. 9000 crore last year

Global funds have invested Rs. 1.1 lakh crore this year in stock market

India natural resources worth $ 1 trillion (17/12/2012)

Import bill total india has $ 450 billion Oil imports alone are $ 150 billion Natural resources india has potential of

$ 1 trillion

Companies Bill 2011 cleared (19/12/2012) CSR:- spending 2% of net profit on CSR for companies

having profit of Rs. 5 crore or more in last 3 years Pay:- Directors pay should not exceed 5% of company

net profit Compensation:- if firs winds up operations, it must pay 2

years salary to its employees Auditor:- number of firms an auditor can serve capped at

20 Ratification:- Appointment of auditors for five years to be

ratified annually SFIO:- More statutory powers given to SFIO to tackle

corproate fraud

Banking law (amendment Bills 2011) (19/12/2012) RBI gets more power can supersede bank

board Voting rights of shareholders in bank goes up

(pvt from 10 % to 26 % and public from 1 % to 10%)

Banks not allowed to trade in commodity futures

RBI to be banking regulator CCI to regulate Mergers and Acquisition

SEBI slamps merchant bankers (20/12/2012)

From April 2008 to march 2012 out of 117 companies which came out with IPO

42 trade above issue price 72 are considerably below issue price

One person company gets nod (20/12/2012)

One person company gets nod in the new companies bill

Large number of sole proprietorship will enter the corporate world

In sole proprietorship the liability of the member is unlimited while in company form it is limited

SME power (26/12/2012)

SME account for 45 % of country industrial output

Rs. 30,000 crores to manufacturing output

Rs. 12,000 crores to total exports SME manufacturers 8000 products

which is 9 % of india GDP In 2001 SME contribution to GDP was

only 6 % while it now at 22 % in 2012

Mid cap funds outperform (26/12/2012) Fund one yr return% Principle emerging 51.52 SBI magnum emerging 50.27 Reliance regular saving 42.83 Principal growth 42.62 Principal tax saving 43.14 Reliance ELSS 42.55 Reliance top 200 36.16 ICICI top 200 32.46

Job Generation falls 21 % in 2012(26/12/2012) Job generation fell 21 % across various sectors

in the whole economy Total 5.3 lakh jobs were created IT topped with 2.1 lakh jobs being created Academics and education 34,500 second Insurance 27,100 Banking 24,500

Stocks where FII increased their stake (27/12/2012)

Company % chg FII holding % Bharti aritel 2.78 16.44 ICICI bank 2.38 36.38 LNT 2.19 15.4 Jindal steel 2.03 22.17 SBI 1.84 9.14 Tata power 1.54 23.45 ITC 1.06 18.32

US debt (27/12/2012)

Total US debt $ 16 trillion US government owns 40 % through Fed

Reserve, Social Security trust fund Individuals, companies, pension fund,

mutual funds own 25 % Asian central banks, China, Japan and

oil exporting countries own 35 %

US Averted FISCAL CLIFF (3/1/2013) Income above $4,00,000 per individual or $ 4,50,000 for

family to be taxed at 39.6% which is currently at 35% Above same income level the capital gain tax and

dividend tax would be at 20 % from 15 % Real estate tax at 40 % for estates of more than $ 10

million per couple which was earlier 35 % tax rate Increase pay roll tax to 6.2% from 4.2% on workers first

$1,13,700 of income Alternative minimum tax is linked to inflation index which

saves millions from being affected Prevents 27% cut in payments to medicare providers for

one year

SEBI plans more strick norms for Buyback

Listed company should compulsory buy back 50 % of announced shares

Companies must complete the process within 3 months

They will have to park 25 % of the maximum amount in an escrow account

PMI rises to 6 month high (3/1/2013)

HSBC market india manufacturing index PMI rose to 54.7 in december from 53.7 in November

Gold imports creating imbalance (3/1/2013)

$ 22.3 billion Indian current account deficit in July- september

Current Account deficit high at 4.2 % of GDP

$ 38.7 billion current account deficit in first half of 2012

India Inc set to declare good numbers (7/1/2013)

Operating profits of Nifty companies to rise 18 % in Q3

Net profit likely to rise by 12 % Revenue or sales growth to be 9.3 %,

which is lowest in 13 quarters as still consumer spending low

GAAR postponed till 2016 (15/1/2013) GAAR to come from 1st April 2016 P notes spared that is GAAR will not apply to Non-

resident investors of FIIs and PEs GAAR will apply only if main purpose of arragnment if to

avoid tax Taxpayer will have chance to argue case before officer Assessing officer will have to issue notice stating reasons Investment before 30th August 2010 will not attract GAAR

India vs China (21/1/2013)

China grew at 7.7% in 2012 India grew at 5.3% in 2012 China per capita income is $ 9146 is

more than twice of India Investment rate as % of GDP in China is

48% and that of India is 36%

European crisis still not over (21/1/2013) European Stability Mechanism has Euro 500

billion Spain has debt of Euro 800 bilion (74% of GDP)

and Italy has debt of Euro 1.9 trillion (120% of GDP)

Banks have risk of capital flight from Europe to other nations

Europe banks have total deposits of Euro 8 trillion including euro 6 trillion in retail deposit

Govt raises Custom duty on gold by 2 % (22/1/2013) Year Gold import ($ billion) 2008-09 21.30 2009-10 28.80 2010-11 40.70 2011-12 56.50 2012-13 38.00 Gold has become Rs. 350 per 10 g more costly In 2011 India imported 969 tonnes of gold and 604

tonnes till september 2012 Rs. 11674 crores of gold is held by ETF mutual funds Gold ETF allowed to deposit physical gold with banks

RBI raises FII limit in bonds (25/1/2013) BS Current account deficit 5.4 % of GDP FII can invest now $ 25 billion in G sec from

earlier $ 20 billion FII can invest now $ 50 billion in Corporate debt

instruments including sub limit of $ 25 billion for infra bonds

Long term investors include Sovereign wealth funds, multilateral agencies, pension funds, foreign central banks

Regulating IFA (24/1/2013)

79000 odd Independent Financial Advisors are there

Rs. 7,00,000 crore mutual fund industry is there As on September 30, 2012 there are 86,240

AMFI registration number holders Out of these 79636 are individuals and 6601

are corporate Besides these there are 45,932 corporate

employees registered with AMFI as corporate ARN holders

SEBI guidelines for Advisors (24/1/2013) All advisors to be registered with SEBI within 6

months Registration valid for 5 years, renewable on

payment of fee Rs. 15000 registration fee for individuals, firms

and Rs. 1,05,000 for corporate bodies Insurance agent, AMFI registered MF

distributor, pension advisor, solicitors, CA, ICWA, Acturaires and Fund managers NEED NOT REGISTER

SEBI guidelines for Advisors (24/1/2013) Minimum qualification of Post graduate degree

or diploma in finance or related fields Graduate with minimum 5 years of experience

in financial product advise Individual and partnership firm need networth of

Rs. 1 lakh and corporate bodies Rs. 25 lakh Disclosure like business plan, risk profiling,

infrastructure details, distribution service offered, declaration that they will not receive any other remuneration from third party products

Repo Rate Cut (29/1/2013)

t has cut repo rate—the rate at which it lends to banks—by 25 basis points to 7.75 percent and the cash reserve ratio—the portion of deposits that banks have to compulsorily keep with the RBI—by 25 basis points to 4 percent.

This will infuse Rs. 18000 crores into the market

GST road clear (29/1/2013)

The center will pay Rs. 34000 crores to the states for their compensation

GST will set to rollout from FY15

Tax cut help low & middle income earners (4/2/2013)

A person earning Rs. 3 lakh in 2003-04 was taxed at 14.1 % now the effective tax rate is 3.4%

Individual with earning of Rs. 8 lakh was paying 32.5 % tax in 2003-04 now pays 29.1 %

China post record capital financial account deficit (4/2/2013)

Since 1998, for the first time China has recorded $ 117 billion gap annual gap in financial account deficit in 2012

China forex reserves is $ 3.31 trillion which is the highest in world..

MF industry waiting for budget (4/2/2013)

Total AUM Rs. 7.80 lakh crore 60 lakh folios decline in last 3 years MF wants tax benefit in long term

investment through pension plans Changes in IRDA act to let insurance

companies invest through MF

FII net buyers in January 2013 (4/2/2013)

FII have purchased net shares worth Rs. 22000 crores in January 2013

This is the seventh consecutive month where the FII have been net buyers

Companies aim to reduce debt (5/2/2013) Combined debt of 10 large business houses

have jumped fivefold in five years to Rupees 5.39 trillion at end of march 2012.

10 groups are Adani Enterprise, GMR, GVK,Vedanta,Essar, Videocon, Anil Ambani,Jaypee, JSW and Lanco

These groups account for 20 %of all bank loans in country

Combined debt of BSE 100 companies was Rupees 65 trillion at end of fiscal 2012

Companies aim to reduce debt (5/2/2013)

Reliance Anil Ambani had total debt of Rs. 86,700 crore

Air India has debt of Rs. 47226 crores

IMF estimates for 2012 GDP (5/2/2013)

Countries 2012-2013 Emerging markets 5.10% Developing Asia 6.60% China 7.80% India 4.50% ASEAN-5 5.70%

Tata pours Dividends (5/2/2013) Tata group firms including Tata motors,Tata

Global Beverages, Tata Chemicals, Tata Steel, TCS have proposed a dividend of Rs. 7200 crores in 2012 compared to Rs. 1200 crores in 2011.

Out of proposed Rs. 4200 crore has been paid out.

In 2011-12 the PAT of Jaguar Land Rover grew 45 % over previous fiscal to Rs. 12000 crores which was much higher than company indian business

Etihad to complete Jet Airways deal (5/2/2013)

Etihad Airways is likely to take 24% stake in Jet Airways by paying Rs. 1800 crores.

This would be first deal after sector was opened for FDI for foreign airlines in Indian airlines

Govt Stumped at Decade low GDP (8/2/2013)

Central Statistical Organization has forecasted Indian GDP at 5 %

This is lowest forecast in one decade Govt Borrowing limit Rs. 5.7 lakh crore

which is already reached 90%

NTPC offer for sale (8/2/2013)

NTPC third largest sale Rs. 11430 Crores in equity marekt after Coal India Rs. 15000 crores and Rel power Rs. 11500 crores

IN NTPC Govt of Singapore, Reliance MF, SBI and LIC have invested

Transfer Pricing targeted by Tax authority (8/2/2013)

Govt hopes to Raise Rs. 1 Lakh crore by taxes through Cross Border deals. Last year Directorate of Transfer Pricing collected Rs. 66000 crores and this year they eye more Rs. 44000 crore so total Rs. 1 lakh crore. Elements like “Marketing intangibles-expenditure incurred for building brand equity in india will be taken for tax

FII finds P notes attractive (8/2/2013)

FII registration were 1767 in Dec 2011 FII registraion fell to 1755 in Dec 2012 P-note value climbs 48% in Dec 2012 to

Rs. 1.02 lakh crore FII pay 1 % brokerage in P notes as

against 0.30 paise in direct route P notes avoid uncertainty over taxation

of their income.

FII finds P notes attractive (8/2/2013) Month Equity+Debt Pnote Exclude FO (Rs Crore) April 12 86785 May 12 66472 June 12 69523 July 12 68677 Aug 12 68450 Sep 12 82379 Oct 12 95536 Nov 12 94658 Dec 12 101666

ECB and Bank of England keep rates low (8/2/2013)

European Central Bank has kept the rates low at 0.75%

Bank of England has kept the rate low at 0.5%

DLF coming out of wounds (13/2/2013) DLF debt of Rs. 23,000 crores DLF has sold Aman resorts for Rs. 1650 crores,

NTC mill for Rs. 2727 crores and part of wind power business for Rs. 282 crores

DLF debt likely to come down to Rs. 18500 crores

Promoters to sell 4.7% stake which would bring down debt to Rs. 16500 crores

Tax-GDP Ratio (Dalal Street Feb 11-24, 2013 issue page 58)

Country Tax to GDP ratio % Mexico 13.7 United Kingdom 24.8 Korea 18.1 India 11.48 USA 17.5

Inflation cools to 3 year low (15/2/2013) Month Inflation % August 2012 8.01 Sep 2012 8.07 Oct 2012 7.32 Nov 2012 7.24 Dec 2012 7.18 Jan 2013 6.62 WPI drops to 3 year low 4.1% level of core inflation, a key measure of demand

(core inflation means rate of price increase in non-food manufactured products – a measure of demand and tracked closely by RBI)

Corporates in Mess (15/2/2013)

Suzlon incurred loss of Rs. 1154 crores Total debt in company Rs. 14000 crores Tata motors net profit falls by 52% to Rs.

1600 crores

FII buys huge in 2013 (22/2/2013)

FII have purchased shares worth Rs. 43,854 crores ($ 8.14 billion)

In 2012, FII have bought Rs.1,28,359 crores ($ 24 billion)

RBI banking license history (22/2/2013)

1993-94 RBI issued license to 10 private banks

2003-04 Two private banks YES bank and Kotak Mahindra bank got license

SUCCES stories HDFC bank, ICICI bank, Axis bank, IndusInd bank, Kotak and Yes bank

RBI banking license history (22/2/2013)

LAGGARDS IDBI bank and DCB bank Failures GTB merged with OBC,

Centurion bank with HDFC, Times bank with HDFC Bank

Economic survey (28/2/2013)

From 2007 the average return given by various asset class

Gold 27% Nifty 7.3% Saving deposit 8.2% Tax to GDP ratio had reached its peak at

11.9% of GDP in 2007-08

GDP growth in last 4 years (28/2/2013)

Year GDP % 2009-10 8.6 2010-11 9.3 2011-12 6.2 2012-13 5.0 2013-14 projected 6.1 to 6.7

GMR Cash starved (5/3/2013)

GMR company had sold its entire stake of 70% in infra project in inland nation of Singapore

The objective is to reduce debt level from the payment received

GMR had debt of Rs. 37,000 crores as on December 2012

Dividend Distribution Tax (5/3/2013)

Dividend Distribution tax on debt mutual funds have been increased to 25 % from 12.5%

Govt Minority stake sale(5/3/2013) (Rs. Crores) Disinvestment done 2012-13 NBCC Rs. 124 crores Hindustan Copper Rs. 807 crore NMDC Rs. 5973 crore Oil India Rs. 3141 crore NTPC Rs.11457 crore Due in March 2013 RCF Rs. 300 crores Nalco Rs. 1350 crores SAIL Rs. 3000 crores

Loan incentive to help housing loans (7/3/2013) Rs 30 – 40 lakh category houses would benefit

most from budget announcement Out of 5,83,513 unsold apartments acorss

country 39% cost less than Rs. 35 lakhs In NCR 50 % of flats are in this range In mumbai 30 % are in this range The budget proposal to increase interest

deduction from 1.5 lakh to 2.5 lakh covers 95 % of interest paid in one year

Loan incentive to help housing loans (7/3/2013)

In 2012, 42% of the homes sold were in category of Rs. 30 to 40 lakhs with average loan being taken Rs. 25 lakhs

At current interest rates of 10.5% a year, total EMI on 25 lakh loan is Rs. 3 lakh

2.5 lakh interest allowed as deduction which covers 95% of interest

Earlier interest deduction was 57%

RBI very cautious on Infra loans (8/3/2013)

Rs. 6925 crores lending to Infra sector Rs. 3874 crores lending to power sector Rs. 7000 crores stuck in KFA Rs. 5000 cr debt to Deccan Chronicle

most of which had to be written off ICRA reports says current NPA 3.6% at

end of Sep 12 which would rise to 6.5% to 7.5% by June 30, 2015

India Airport Details (11/3/2013)

How airports boost regional economy Every $ 100 of airport expenditure

produces $ 325 beefits 100 additional jobs generate 610

economy wide jobs Encourages access to goods and

services % rise in tax revenues

India Airport Details (11/3/2013) Country No of airports USA 15000 Brazil 4105 Russia 1218 Indonesia 676 South Africa 567 China 497 UK 462 India 456 (33% functional) AAI planning to operationalise 100 more airports by 2020 Out of 125 aiports of AAI 87 are loss making (Losses Rs. 950 crores

Govt to scrap or ease FDI caps (11/3/2013) Sector FDI cap (%) Multibrand retail 51 Defense 26 Airlines 49 Pvt Security agency 49 Telecom 74 Asset Reconstruction com 49 Banking pvt sector 74 Credit information com 49 Commodity exchanges 49 Infra cos in securities market 49 Insurance 26

Wealth Destroyers (18/3/2013)

Company From 2008 % fall in mkt cap DLF - 74% R COM - 91.2% Sterlite Industries -53.7% Suzlon Energy -94.7% GMR Infra -83.3% Tata Communication -70.0% Aban Offshore -93.2% GVK power & infra -84.6%

RBI cuts rate (19/3/2013)

RBI has cut Repo Rate to 7.5% The Reverse Repo Rate is 6.5 % CRR is kept at 4 %

Banks urged to pump up (1/4/2013)

215 projects are stalled with investment of Rs. 7 lakh crore

Banks have lend Rs. 54000 crores Indian economy grew at 4.5% GDP

lowest in 15 quarters During march 2013 meet banks had

sanctioned Rs. 43000 crores for 126 projects which are estimated Rs. 3.55 lakh crore

Interest cost hurts (1/4/2013)

Interest outgo as percentage of Profit before interest and tax or PBIT has increased to 29% in Dec 2012

It was 14 % in Dec 2009. The ratio has remained above 20% for last six quarters.

CAD hurts Indian Economy (1/4/2013)

Indian economy Current Account Deficit has touched 6.7% which is very high and disturbing

The estimated was 6.4%

Mutual fund investors decline (8/4/2013)

In FY 13, 34 lakhs individual investors closed their folios

The total number of folios have fallen from 4.64 crores to 4.30 crores

The number of investor folios for equity schemes fell by 42.5 lakhs while debt funds increased of 8 lakhs

RGESS fails to light up (8/4/2013)

RGESS collected Rs. 51.67 crores Total number of demat accounts 21800 The number of demat accounts open for

RGESS is only 2.9% of total demat accounts during the same period.

Corporate Governance issues (8/4/2013)

Companies Prices Educomp Rs. 757 to Rs. 66 HDIL Rs. 540 to Rs. 48 SKS Micro Rs. 1000 to Rs. 127 BHEL Rs. 550 to Rs. 176 Crompton Greaves Rs. 300 to Rs. 91 KS oil Rs. 84 to Rs. 3 Everon Rs. 655 to Rs. 60

Corporate Governance issues (8/4/2013)

HDIL – Promoters sold their shares to buy land, 96% of promoter holding was pledged

KS Oil – Promoters evaded taxes, entire promoter holding was pledged

Everon – Promoter was arrested on charges of paying bribe to income tax officer to hide income of Rs. 100 crores

Bilcare declared defaulter (9/4/2013)

United Bank of India has claim of Rs. 51 crore on bilcare

Stock was Rs. 1830 In January 2008 and not it is at Rs. 101

Rakesh junjunwala has 8 % stake in the company in december 2012

US and Japan pulling funds (9/4/2013) Fund managers have pulled out $ 951 million from india From BRIC countries they have pulled out $ 777 million Country Funds ($ million) Jan-Mar 13 USA +53925 Japan +10166 West Europe +3206 China +1904 Brazil - 1333 Russia - 698 India - 951 Emerging Mkts - 654 Africa - 47

FII invest in US and Japan (16/4/2013)

FII have invested $ 66 billion in the last 3 months into US and Japan markets

Inflation below 6 % (16/4/2013)

WPI has come to 5.96% in March as compared to 6.84% in February

Core inflation at 3.4% down from 3.7% in February

Food inflation at 8.73% down from 11.38% in February

IIP at 0.6% in February as against expectation of -1.2%

Trade Deficit falls (18/4/2013)

India’s trade deficit reduced by 50 % to $ 10 billion

Biggest fall in 9 months Due to fall in gold prices

FM speaks data on CNBC 24/4/2013 FII have invested $ 11.8 billion in 2013 till date Indian Saving rate 31 % in 2012 It was 36% in previous year CAD to be near 5 % in FY 14 Reviving investments key to growth GST to be surely done Fall in Crude and Gold welcome to reduce the CAD

India Funds and ETF pull out money (24/4/2013) From January 2013 to March 2013 Global funds have

invested $ 66 billion in US and Japan, Western Europe They pulled out shares worth $ 1.2 billion in march

quarter US Corporate dividend yield is 2.56 % while its 10 year G

sec yield is 1.7% Japan corporate dividend yield is 1.56% while 10 year

bond yield is sub 1 % Foreign Fund managers wants action and not words

Etihad Jet Airway Deal (25/4/2013) Jet Airways has sold a minority stake to fast-growing Abu Dhabi-based

carrier Etihad Airways for Rs 2,060 crore (roughly USD 379 million) after months of negotiations.

India's largest airline by market share said in a brief statement to the stock exchange that its board approved the allotment to Etihad of 27.3 million shares at Rs 754.74 each on a preferential basis.

The price represents a 31.7 percent premium to Jet's closing share price on Tuesday . Indian markets were closed on Wednesday.

If completed, the investment would be the first by a foreign carrier into an Indian airline since the country relaxed ownership rules in September and allowed foreign carriers to buy up to 49 percent in local carriers, which are battling stiff competition and high operating costs.

Etihad gives soft loan to jet (2/5/2013)

Etihad has given $ 300 million soft loan to Jet at 3 % rate of interest

Jet as of now pay 14 % annual interest on loans

Jet has debt of $ 2.1 billion as on December 2012

Jet annually pays Rs. 1000 crores as interest amount

Jet has total debt of Rs. 12000 crores

FII flows dips in April 2013

Month FII Flows (Rs. Crores) January 22,244 February 22,122 March 11660 April 4785

ECB cuts rate (3/5/2013)

European Central Bank has cut its benchmark rate at 0.50% from 0.75%

FED has 0.25% interest rates

PMI India falls (3/5/2013)

Purchase Managers Index has falled to 50.1 in March

PMI above 50 and rising shows economy expanding

PMI below 50 shows economy contracting

Bharti Airtel Still in losses (3/5/2013)

13th Straight quarter and fall in profits continue

Total debt in Bharti Airtel Rs. 65000 crores which is hurting its balance sheet

Profits came down by 50 %

FII increase stake while DII reduce (3/5/2013)

FII holding in sectors Sector FII holding Auto 9% BFSI 33% FMCG 9.2% IT services 14.5% Oil and Gas 10.1% Pharma 5.3%

DII holding (3/5/2013)

Sector FII holding BFSI 22.8% Engineering 8.1% FMCG 18.2% IT services 9.4% Metals Mining 5.1% Oil and Gas 16.5%

Returns of asset classes (6/5/2013) (1979-2012)

Asset class Return % Inflation 8.1 Fixed Deposit 8.8 Postal schemes 8.7 Gold 11.1 Equity 17

Teledensity Falling (13/5/2013)

Teledensity – number of telephone connections for every hundred individuals living within an area

In june 2012 it was 79.6 and now in Feb 13 it is 72.9

ARPU for GSM has come down to Rs.98 from Rs. 366 in March 2006

ARPU for CDMA has come down to Rs. 80 from Rs. 256 in March 2006

Goodwill Hits (14/5/2013)

2006 Tata steel acquired Corus for $ 13 billion 2013 February consolidated loss of Tata Steel at Rs. 763 crores 2009- Hindalco wrote off $ 1.5 billion goodwill for Novelis Dec 2012- Arcelor Mittal wrote of $ 4.5 billion in Europe March 2013 – Tokyo Steel took $ 1.3 billion impairment charge

Indian Blues May 2010 – Vodafone Plc takes $ 3.4 billion impairment hit on

India operations Feb 2012 – Daiichi Sankyo takes Rs. 136 crores write off on

Ranbaxy

Trade deficit widens (14/5/2013)

Trade Deficit widens to $ 17.8 billion Last year it was $ 14 billion It increased to more buying of Gold as

the prices have crashed

Inflation falls to 40 month low (14/5/2013)

Inflation has come down to 4.89% It was at 5.86% It is at 40 month low which gives RBI

room to reduce rates Core inflation is at 2.8% Food inflation down 6.1%

Repo rate still at 7.25% and reverse repo at 6.25% while CRR at 4 %

Tata steel may cell Corus part (21/5/2013) Tata Steel has been struggling to turn its European arm

profitable since the time of take over five years ago. The company took an impairment hit of USD 1.6 billion on its FY13 balance-sheet on the back of weak environment in Europe.

By unlocking value of these assets the company could raise

around Rs 4,000 crore The company had sold Teesside Cast Products (TCP) for around USD

467 million in 2011. Tata Steel has around 4.2 billion pounds of debt and another 570 million pounds is due in FY14 and FY15 and hence further disposals would help ease the burden on the wider group, Moody’s noted.

Tata steel may cell Corus part (21/5/2013)

Between 2007 till date, Tata Steel has seen 30 percent fall in steel demand in Europe. In past few years the company has taken several austerity measures to cut down growing losses of European operations.

Rel Infra scraps projects (21/5/2013)

Reliance Infrastructure has scrapped projects worth Rs. 20,000 crores

This is due to delay in Governmental clearances

Govt Reduces FII withholding tax (22/5/2013)

In Government bonds and securities for long term do not need PAN Card

Investments between June 1 2013 to 31st may 2015.

Withholding tax reduced to 5 % QFI and FII will benefit from the same

Global Stimulus continues(23/5/2013) Money control

Bank of Japan is buying $ 75 billion of assets per month

US is buying $ 85 billion of assets per month

Japan's Nikkei witnessed its biggest fall in two years when it closed 7.3 percent lower on Thursday with 1100 points fall and closed for trading

China PMI at 49.6 at 7 months low

Larsen & Tubro in problem (23/5/2013)

Rs. 17000 crores worth of orders written off

Another Rs. 6000 crores of orders likely to be slow

Slow down in infrastructure projects, high costs and rising interest burden are the main reason

Net profit fall 7 % to 1788 crores.

Real GDP (23/5/2013)

Year Real GDP % 2002-03 4.0 2003-04 8.1 2004-05 7.0 2005-06 9.5 2006-07 9.6 2007-08 9.3 2008-09 6.7 2009-10 8.6 2010-11 9.3 2011-12 6.2 2012-13 5.0

Fiscal deficit as % of GDP (23/5/2012)

Year fiscal deficit 2007-08 2.5 2008-09 6.0 2009-10 6.5 2010-11 4.8 2011-12 5.7 2012-13 (RE) 5.2 2013-14 (BE) 4.8

Sticky loan rises (23/5/2013)

Bank of India gross NPA rose 48% in FY13 to Rs. 8765 crores over a year ago

IDBI gross NPA has rised by 41% to Rs. 6449 crores

GDP reduces to ten year low (31/5/2013) money control

GDP Indian economy expanded by 4.8 percent in the quarter that ended in March, in-line with consensus. The FY13 GDP has also come in line with government estimates of 5 percent, which is lowest in a decade.

HSBC PMI confirms slowdown (4/6/2013) Headline PMI dropped 0.9 points to 50.1 in May with the

key worry being output trends (i.e. current indicators) which fell 1.6 points to 48.6. Forward-looking indicators, i.e. those for future production, saw mixed trends with new orders declining (-1.8 points to 50.5) but new export orders rising (+2.9 points to 54)

A weak PMI, lower eight-core growth (2.3 percent in April vs. the revised 3.2 percent in March 2013) and muted Q4 GDP growth (4.8 percent), point to a significantly bleaker growth outlook.

FII sold highest shares (20/6/2013)

FII sold shares worth Rs. 2136 crores on june 20, highest in two years.

Fed said they are going to stop QE 3 Earlier FII had sold May 13, 2011 ( Rs

3706.4 crore) Currently world has witnessed US QE3,

London LTRO (Long Term Refinance Operations) and Japan Bond Buying Programme

FII sales vs Rupee Level

Date FII Sales Rupee/$ 20/6/2013 -2136 59.70 29/3/2012 -1299 59.14 9/8/2011 -1961 45.17 5/8/2011 -1610 44.80 25/8/2011 -1494 46.12

SEZ policy under scanner (24/6/2013) Total SEZ approved so far 577 170 operate across India and 389 still not notified Total jobs created as on March 31, 2013 is 10,74,904 jobs Exports from SEZ rose to 30 % to $ 88 billion in 2012-13 from $

68 billion last year Minimum Alternate Tax was charged at 20.96% on developers

and units Dividend Distribution tax at 17%

FII and QFI to be merged (26/6/2013)

Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) and Qualified Foreign Investor (QFI) to be merged into one entity called as Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI)

SEBI tightens buy back norms (26/6/2013)

New Old Minimum buyback 50 % 25% Minimum period 6 months 12 months Post buyback 1 yr no cap raise 6 mon

If company fails to buy back 50 % then company has to forfeit 2.5 % of total amount earmarked

CAD Falls to low level (28/6/2013) Year CAD Q1 2012 3.8 Q2 2012 4.2 Q3 2012 4.3 Q4 2012 4.4 Q1 2013 3.9 Q2 2013 5.4 Q3 2013 6.7 Q4 2013 3.6

Portugal Crisis (4/7/2013)

17 countries EURO zone Portugal facing problem over

implementing Austerity measures Portugal main PSI 20 index plunged

6.4% on Wednesday 10 year bond yield to 7.74% indicating

lack of confidence in investors

Top 30 bad loans make for half of NPA (4/7/2013) In foreign banks top 30 non performing loans

account for 84 % of gross NPA as on March 2013

For PSU banks, top 30 NPA account for 39.7% of gross NPA. Bank of India, Andhara Bank, Punjab & Sind bank, Corporation bank have more than 50 % of gross NPA

In case of Private bank, top 30 banks have 34.6% of gross NPA and for old private banks it 66.4% of gross NPA

Service PMI falls (4/7/2013)

HSBC Service PMI falls to 51.7 from may reading of 53.6

The falling in the reading shows that service sector

Company with Debt Distress (4/7/2013)

Company Rs. Crores Jindal Steel 14372 KFA 8030 Suzlon 6416 Electrosteel 5232 Hindustan Construction 4574 Bharti Shipyard 3862 Leela Ventures 3643 GTL infra 3190 Tulip Telecom 2175 Gammon India 2706

Rupee slide (10/7/2013)

Rs 38,700 crores Daily average turnover of the futures currreny market on NSE in june (up 47%)

Indian debt market FII sold $ 5.4 billion in June and $ 1.1 billion in July

Oil companies will buy dollars only from one bank and not from multiple institutions

Margin increased in currency futures on non bank players and new positions

Ban on banks for proprietary trading

Projects Stalled root cause (10/7/2013)

341 projects are stalled 10.5 lakh crore is at stake This needs to be looked seriously No investment activity taking place

US Economy Recovering (10/7/2013)

US unemployment rate is 4 year low at 7.6%

Economy to grow at 1.8% GDP as compared to earlier estimate of 2.4%

US Proposal to reduce banks lending power (11/7/2013)

Federal Reserve, office of the Comproller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. are planning to bring law to increase the leverage ratio of banks to 5 % and for FDIC to 6 % from current 3 %.

This means banks should have more capital to protect their asset side than what they keep currently

US Proposal to reduce banks lending power (11/7/2013)

Banks Shortage/ Surplus J P Morgan - $15.6 billion Morgan stanley +$14.1 billion Citigroup -$ 13.2 billion Goldman sach - $ 4.9 billion Bank of America + $ 3.6 billion

WPI inflation (15/7/2013)

WPI inflation at 4.86% Core inflation at 2 % Food inflation at 9.74% vs 8.25% per

month

RBI raises cost of borrowing (16/7/2013)

Repo Rate is at 7.25% Marginal Standing Bank Rate raised to

200 bps to 10.25% Rs 12000 crore bonds Central Bank will

buy on thrusday Rs. 75000 crores cap on bank borrowing This will raise the cost of borrowing for

the consumers

Walmart stores (16/7/2013)

Country No of stores Mexico 2353 Central America 642 UK 565 Brazil 558 Japan 438 China 393 Canada 379 Africa 377 Chile 329 Argentina 94

Gitanjali Gems under scan (25/7/2013)

Total debt in company Rs. 4300 crores Total sales of company Rs. 16000 crores Promoter Mehul Choksi Unique Client

Code has been disabled Stock has come down in circuit from Rs.

600 to Rs. 94

Why Retail investor runs away from market ?

US has new way to calculate GDP (25/7/2013)

US GDP was first calculated in 1929 Now US GDP calculation would have

Research & Development as Investment and would be accounted for

LIC investments raise eyebrows again (30/7/2013)

Company CMP % fall from 52 wk H Zylog system 14 95.55 Core Edu 23 93.13 Gitanjali gems 80 87.55 ABG shipyard 269 35.17 Pipavav Defen 68 30.20 Mandhana Ind 234 24.24

FII sell record stocks in June and July (31/7/2013)

FII have sold Rs. 17000 crores or $ 2.9 billion in June and july 2013

Highest in last 5 year june and july RBI has reduced GDP forecast to 5.5%

from 5.7%

Global Fund managers sell on india (31/7/2013) Main reasons Slowdown in economic growth Threat of rating downgrade Concerns over rising fiscal and CAD deficit Depreciating rupee Fading hopes of rate cuts Absence of big ticket reforms Uncertain political scenario

NSEL stops one day forward contract (1/8/2013) NSEL has suspended all the trading in one day forward contract )

suspended trading in all one-day forward contracts

The action taken by NSEL basically translates to almost all volumes or turnover of the exchange coming to a standstill or near zero. E-series contracts do not have much volumes on the exchange. It is hardly Rs 3-4 crore and the turnover of the exchange has anyways fallen from roughly around Rs 800-900 crore a day to nearly Rs 300 crore because of the actions taken by the Ministry of Consumer Affairs.

On July 23, NSEL had reduced delivery, payment and settlement period of all contracts traded on the exchange to less than 11 days (T+10 or less), wherever settlement schedule was extending beyond 11 days. NSEL had also decided to convert all the existing contract on trade for trade basis, which means that every trade must result into delivery.

“The exchange had reduced cost of transaction in respect of all these contacts by 80 percent. The cumulative cost of transaction, delivery and warehouse receipt transfer was earlier Rs 100 per one lakh of turnover, which has been brought down to Rs 20 per Rs 1 lakh of turnover,” according to a release issued on July 23.

HIGH CAD

Current Account Deficit (CAD) is USD 80 billion, between Foreign Institutional Investor (FII), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and External Commercial Borrowings (ECB) it would not be a problem at all in bridging that. 7 months have passed this year and we have got USD 20 billion FII plus FDI put together.

FDI retail norms eased (2/8/2013)

Existing norms 30% of procurement value should

be from Indian small units with upto $ 1 million investment in plant and machinery

Units outgrowing “small industry” status ineligible for fulfillment of mandatory local sourcing

Retail outlets to be set up only in cities with population of over 10 lakhs and cover 10 sq km around urban agglomerations.

Cabinet approved change At least 30% of procurement value

should be from Indian small units with upto $ 2 million investment in plant and machinery

“Small Industry” requirement only at the time of first engagement. Such industry will qualify for sourcing even if it outgrows investment of $ 2 million

States free to decide on the city for the location of front end sores irrespective of population

PMI service index crashes (6/8/2013)

HSBC Service Business Activity has fallen from 51.7 to 47.9 in July 2013

This is the lowest reading since April 2009

Clear sign of Economy slowdown Service Sector contributes 55% in GDP

BSE 100 COMPANIES DEBT RISES (7/8/2013)

BSE 100 companies (Excluding banks and financials) total debt has increased by 75% to Rs 14.5 lakh crore

Operating profits up only by 25 % IF FMCG and IT which are cash rich

removed then numbers still worse

YTD returns Global markets (7/8/2013)

Brazil - 19.74% Russia - 19.05 % Sensex - 5.30% Nifty - 7.61% China -14.82%

PE Investors trapped (12/8/2013)

Company PE Year stock price Gokuldas Blackstone 07 -90% Punj lloyd warbug pincu 07 - 91% NCC Blackstone 07 -90% Allsec Carlyle 07 -90% Great offshore Carlyle 07 -95%

International Financial Mafia in commodities trade (12/8/2013) Pay Rupees equal to $ 10,000 and trade upto $

2,00,000 or 20 times Bucket shops in Mumbadevi and Chira Bazar Rs. 1200 is total cost including brokerage and

CTT in one lot of gold in MCX while in Dabba it is Rs. 100

Margins in International Exchanges are 6 % to 10% as against 10 to 20 % in Indian exchanges

International Funds give returns (12/8/2013) (1 year %) ICICI pru US Bluechip 37.42% Franklin US Opportunity 36.04% DSPBR US Flexible 33.42% JP Morgan ASEAN Equity 30.74% Motilal Most Nasdaq 27.87% Birla International Equity 26.4% JP Morgan Greater China 24.67% Kotak Global Emerging Mkt 20.66% DSPBR World Energy 15% DSPBR world Agriculture 13.37% Domestic Large & Multi cap have given 3.44% 0.02%

Mid cap and small cap crash (13/8/2013)

Sensex down by 2.5% in 2013 Mid cap down by 23 % and small cap

down by 28% Globally DAX Mid cap up 33 % and

FTSE small cap p 35% and S&P 600 Small cap up 31%

IIP crashes (13/8/2013)

IIP for June came to -2.2 % IIP for May revised downward to -2.8% CPI at 9.64% in July Car sales down for 7th successive month

Gold Import duty rises

Govt has raised the import duty for the third time

From 8 to 10 % This makes yellow metal costly by Rs.

600 per 10 grams

Inflation rises (14/8/2013)

The WPI July inflation came to 5.79% WPI June was 4.86% Inflation again rising its head Food Articles Inflation At 11.91% Vs

9.74% (MoM)

Dollar vs Rupee

In 1947 1 $ = 1 Rs. In 1947 10 gram gold = Rs. 88.62

In 2013 1$ = Rs. 61 In 2013 10 gram gold = Rs. 29000

50% of BSE shares below book value (19/8/2013) Company Mkt Price Bookvalue Indian oil 209 239 BHEL 105 130 RCOM 118 159 Tata steel 235 582 SAIL 40 103 JSW Steel 487 802 Sesa Goa 130 147 Rel Infra 325 747 Hindalco 93 175

Infra Projects worth 1.1 lakh crore cleared (19/8/2013)

Power Projects Rs. 83772 4 road projects Rs. 4359 3 Railway projects Rs. 7103 BPCL Petro Distilary Rs. 1419 OCL Iron & Steel Rs. 1109 Delhi Airport Rs. 12000

Total projects Rs. 1,09,000 crore

Companies that gain from rupee fall (21/8/2013)

Company Rs. Crore gain wgt in Sensex TCS 5775 6 Infosys 3677 8.17 Wipro 2748 1.83 Bajaj auto 1123 1.69 Dr. Reddy 872 1.38 BHEL 869 0.54 Cipla 574 1.32

NPA in PSU Rise (22/8/2013)

PSU Mar 12 Mar 13 Gross NPA 3.17 3.78 Priority Sector NPA 4.93 5.42 NPA other priority 5.22 4.66 Gross NPA Retail 2.72 2.37 NPA Corporates 2.65 3.44

Tax collection in different slabs (22/8/2013)

2011 – 2012 Tax (Crore) % of total 0-5 lakhs 15010 10.4 5-10 lakhs 21976 14.8 10-20 lakhs 17858 12.1 Over 20 lakhs 93229 63.0

Food Security Bill (27/8/2013)

Food Security Bill to cover 67 % of the population

The total subsidy burden would be Rs. 1,24,000 crore

CAD a challenge (27/8/2013)

Last fiscal CAD was $ 88 billion This fiscal target is to reduce it to $ 70

billion Gold imports have come down by $ 10-

12 billion

PE funds trapped (27/8/2013) in $ million and year 2007 of investments

Company Amt invt Current val % chg

Suzlon 25 0.26 -98 ICSA india 52 0.66 -98 K S oil 104 2.86 -97 Shiv Vani 25 0.55 -97 Great offshore 41 1.30 -96 Jai Balaji ind 69 2.18 -96 Nagarjun con 150 7.91 -94

Key stats about Indian corporate sector (28/8/2013) Delhi IIFT

Parameters 2007 2013 Net Debt 0.33 060 EBIDTA has gone up 14% but interest cost gone up by

30% Interest coverage ratio was 10.5x in 2007 which is

reduced to 4.6x in 2013 Shareholders Equity has reduced to 18% but net debt

has gone up by 31 % FII hold 48% of free float market cap

Indian Economy mess (money control 4/8/2013)

In 2007-08 the total deficit was Rs.1,26,000 crore currently it is Rs. 5,42,000 crore deficit

Indian total forex reserve $250 billion (excluding gold reserves) and debt $390 billion (31st march 2013)

60% of the loan to be repaid next year India would not be able to give back more than 2 $ for every 3 $

owed The drastic fall in the CAD for January-March period to 3.6

percent from 6.7 percent in the previous quarter is a signal not of a correcting CAD, but a slowing economy

Indian Economy mess (money control 4/8/2013) The second negative is the obverse side of selling grains at Re 1, Rs 2

and Rs 3 a kg to the poor. The poor will buy the cheap grain and sell a part of it in the open market which will then be used for higher-protein food (milk, veggies, meat, eggs, etc). Recent food inflation has been caused not by rice or wheat, but protein items. The FSB will thus directly make food inflation worse. Nothing slows down an economy more than inflation.

The only antidote to it is very strong reforms in energy pricing, FDI, labour and land markets.

Large chunks of the public sector need to be sold off-and not just divested piecemeal. Or else we should cut welfare spending drastically.

Banks risk of losing Rs. 30,000 crore (5/9/2013) Company Amout (Rs. Crore) KS oil 2564 KFA 7000 Deccan Chronicle 4000 PSL 3200 MFI(Micro Finance) 7200 Xenitis Infotech 400 The above companies restructuring have failed As on march 2013, loans worth Rs. 2,29,013 crore of 401 companies

restructured

Pension Bill passed in Lok Sabha (5/9/2013)

The total corpus is Rs. 35000 crores 8 fund managers will manage the fund 3 funds options with varying degree of

investments in equity, bonds 26 state governments have joined the

scheme All central government employees who

joined after 1st jan 2004 will be in this pension scheme

FII make come back (11/9/2013)

From June to August FII sold Rs. 23000 crores shares

In september FII so far have bought Rs. 5000 crore of shares

BRICS strength (11/9/2013)

World GDP BRICS Data BRICS 21% India 13% US 22% China 55.1% EU 23% Brazil 16.2% Japan 8% Russia 13.1% Others 26% South Africa 2.6%

Debt to GDP ratio of Eurozone 92.2 % and USA 103 % ($16.7 trillion debt in USA)

$ 100 Billion fund for BRICS (11/9/2013)

$ 100 billion fund has been proposed to be created by BRICS nation

India $ 18 billion Brazil $ 18 billion Russia $ 18 billion China $ 41 billion South Africa $ 5 billion

RBI eases banks borrowings (11/9/2013) money control The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Tuesday banks can

raise funds overseas above 50 percent of their Tier I capital with a minimum maturity of three years and swap these borrowings with the central bank at a concessional rate for one to three years. "The swaps shall be available at a concessional rate of a hundred basis points below the market rate for all fresh borrowing with a minimum tenor of one year and a maximum tenor of three years, irrespective of whether such borrowings are in excess of 50 per cent of their unimpaired Tier I capital or not," the RBI said.

Rising Bad loans (18/9/2013)

NPA of PSU banks have become 3.84% in March 2013 as compared to 2.32% in March 2011

26 PSU banks are there Top 30 NPAs make Rs. 61,123 crore or

39% of their gross NPA accounts.

FII back in September (18/9/2013)

FII have invested Rs. 6394 crores in first 15 days of September

Rupee appreciated 8 % FII were net sellers of Rs. 23000 crores

from June to August

FII POWER (18/9/2013)

$ 200 Billion of Indian Stocks are owned by FII

$ 37 billion FII have invested in Indian stock market since 2012

WPI inflation high at 6 months (18/9/2013)

WPI inflation is at 6.1% Six months high

BRIC Nations Forex Reserves (20/9/2013)

Brazil $ 371 billion Russia $ 509 billion India $ 274 billion China $ 3.3 trillion

India’s FOREX reserve

Year Forex Reserves ($ billion) FY08 309.7 FY09 252 FY10 279.1 FY11 304.8 FY12 294.4 FY13 292 FY14 274.8

RBI raises Repo Rate (20/9/2013)

RBI increased repo rate by 25 bps to 7.5 %

The RBI did provide some relief for banks by lowering the marginal standing facility (MSF, an RBI window for short term loans) to 9.5 percent from 10.25 percent.

The CRR was kept at 4%

GAAR to be applicable from April 2016 (27/9/2013)

GAAR to be applicable from 1st April 2016

For those transactions of FII which has tax benefit exceeding Rs. 3 crore

CAD widens (1/10/2013)

CAD widens to 4.9% in June Quarter It was 3.6% in last in Q4 While CAD had touched 6.7% in Q3

Core sector growth at 7 month high It is at 3.7% Core sector includes Coal, Crude oil, natural

gas, Fertilizer, steel, cement, electricity, Refinery products

RBI reduces MSF (8/10/2013)

RBI reduces MSF (Marginal Standing Facility) by 50 bps

From 9.5 % to 9% Lending to banks by RBI for 7and 14

days as against current practice of 1 day This will induce liquidity in the system

BRIC problems (8/10/2013)

Emerging Markets Central Banks (except China) have seen outflows worth $ 80 billion around 2 % of reserves

Last 4 months, Indonesia has lost around 14 % of central bank reserves

Turkey has lost 13 % India RBI has lost 6 % of its reserves India, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey have large current

account deficit. India has total fiscal and current account deficit of 10% Emerging Economies need $ 1.5 trillion every year in

external funding to meet financial needs including maturity debt.

BRICS Problems (8/10/2013)

Many investments have been misdirected or deliberately wasteful

Trophy projects like 2008 Beijing Olympics costing $ 40 billion

Russia’s $ 51 billion 2014 Winter Olympics Brazil 2014 football world cup and 2016

Olympics These events absorbed scarce resources at the

expense of essential infrastructure.

Trade Deficit Reduces (10/10/2013) Trade Deficit ($ billion) April 2013 17.78 May 2013 20.1 June 2013 12.2 July 2013 12.2 August 2013 10.9 September 2013 6.8 Exports rose 11.2% in Sep and Imports reduced by 18% Trade Deficit for Q2 is at $ 29.8 billion as against $ 50

billion for Q1

India External Debt to GDP ratio (14/10/2013)

India External Debt to GDP is 22% India has reserves of $ 280 billion which

is 15 % of GDP In other words, country can pay three

fourth of its debt from its forex reserves India holding in US treasuries is $ 59.1

billion

Inflation at 7 month high (15/10/2013)

Inflation was 6.10% in August Inflation now at 7 month high at 6.46% The CPI inflation has also gone up to

9.84% from 9.52% Prices of onion up 323% Vegetables prices up 89% Rice prices up 18.76% Egg, meat prices up 13.37%

India gold imports (15/10/2013) In 2012, we bought 863 tonnes of gold, accounting for 28

per cent of global purchases. Over the years, we have accumulated 20,000-25,000

tonnes of gold, with a staggering market value of over $1 trillion.

India's current account deficit was roughly about $80 billion in 2012-13. Since gold imports alone amounted to about $60 billion

Retail Participation at 10 year low (21/10/2013)

Daily cash market average volume of retail investors is down to Rs. 4615 crore in 2013 which is lowest since 2003

In 2009 retail participation used to be Rs. 13709 crores.

From 2009 to 2013, the retail participation has come down from 65 % to 34%

FII back in India

In 16 trading sessions in October, FII have invested Rs. 13000 crores

From January 2013, FII net investment has been Rs. 85000 crore in Indian markets

Infra Projects delayed (29/10/2013) Rs 15 lakh crore worth of industrial projects stalled 136 projects worth Rs 7.14 lakh crore stalled in power

sector Delay largely due to lack of clearances Gross NPA of banks have reached Rs. 1,36,970 crore

(17.43% of total) from Rs. 12,190 crore (4.66% of total ) at end of March 2009 Intensifying pressure on banks

RBI raises Repo Rate (30/10/2013)

Repo rate increased by 25 bps which takes it to 7.75 %

Reverse repo rate also increased by 25 bps

Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) reduced by 25 bps to 8.75 % (earlier 9 %)

India slips to 134 rank in ease of doing business (30/10/2013) Ease of doing business Country 2014 2013 Singapore 1 1 Hong Kong, China 2 2 New Zealand 3 3 USA 4 4 Denmark 5 5 Malaysia 6 8 Korea 7 6 Georgia 8 9 Norway 9 7 UK 10 11 India 134 131

Equity rising but investors missing (11/11/2013) Sensex at 20,827 but with inflation adjusted it is real

value is 13000 If companies whose prices have crashed much are

removed then value of Sensex is only 11500 NSE Mid cap is 22% down and small cap is 58 % down. According to SEBI 500 brokers have shut business since

1st April. 40,000 jobs lost and 12855 sub brokers shut their shop.

Trade Data improves (12/11/2013)

Exports up 13.5% Imports down 14.5% October Trade deficit at $ 10.55 billion

which was last year at $ 20.2 billion CAD should be less than $ 60 billion Exports target of $ 325 billion could be

achieved

Fizz has gone out of India (12/11/2013)

India has gone from “Must invest” to “Must deal with” says pepsi CEO Nooyi

Must Invest means it is a destination and the country is growing

Must deal means there are infrastructure issues, taxation policy is not clear. So people say “Do I have to deal with India”

PEPSI to invest Rs. 33000 crores till 2020 into Indian markets.

FATCA to affect fund flows (12/11/2013) Foreign investors have invested over Rs 92,250

crore or USD 16.7 billion so far this year. This robust flow will be adversely impacted come January 1 when nearly 40% of the foreign flows will be governed by FATCA - Foreign Account Tax compliance Act. To put it simply, FATCA was enacted by the US government to track down offshore investments and earnings of any US citizen.

Inflation rises again (13/11/2013)

CPI inflation is at 10.09 % from 9.84 % Food inflation is at 12% September IIP is at 2 % (positive

surprise)

FII flows of 2013 (13/11/2013)

Month Net flows of FII (Rs.crore) Jan 22,245 Feb 22,122 March 11,660 April 5,145 May 20,678 June -10,530 July - 5,909 August - 6,200 September 13,158 October 18,013 November 1,843

SBI Profit falls 35 % (14/11/2013)

Rs. 6000 crore debt that would be restructured in next 2 quarters

Rs. 9300 crore debt mainly from Infra, power, Iron and steel sectors

SBI total restructured loan book stood at Rs. 52,437 crores.

Markets gets Jitters as FII unwind long positions(24/11/2013)

Indian Markets have lost nearly 1000 points over past 7 trading sessions

FII have liquidated long positions worth Rs 4000 crore in index futures in November series

Tata opts out of bank license (28/11/2013)

Tata group has withdrawn its application from bank license

Mahindra and Mahindra also had withdrawn its bank application

Out of 26 applicants now 24 are in race

Economy bounce backs (3/12/2013)

Core Sector growth crashes -0.6% in October as compared to 8% rise in September

GDP at 4.8 % in Q2 in line with Expectation and Q1 it was 4.6%

CAD to 1.2 % of GDP

Inflation jumps (12/12/2013)

CPI inflation at 11.24 % IIP data at -1.8% This dampens the chances of reduction

in interest rates

WPI jumps (16/12/2013)

WPI rises to 7.52% 14 month high The wholesale price index (WPI) for the month of November

shot up to a 14-month high of 7.52 percent from 7 percent in the previous month, led by higher primary, food and fuel prices. The street was largely expecting the November WPI to stay at 7 percent. The September WPI number has also been revised upwards at 7.05 percent from the provision figure of 6.46 percent.

The biggest culprit remains food inflation which accelerated to 19.93 percent in November from 18.19 percent in October. The primary articles inflation for the month rose to 15.92% versus 14.68% in October.

Slow Growth in Bank Deposits (17/12/2013) Central Bank Comfort zone for deposit growth

is 14 % Actual growth of deposits is 12.8% Annual growth of deposits is 16.1% but this due

to FCNR(Foreign currency non resident) flows of $ 34 billion

Loan growth back at 16% on Nov 29 from 18 % in August

Companies going to money market to raise short term funds

WPI rises sharply (17/12/2013)

WPI at 14 month high June 5.16 July 5.85 Aug 6.99 Sep 7.05 Oct 7.00 Nov 7.52 Food inflation at 19.93 % in November This means RBI may increase Repo rate by 25

bps to 8 %

Fed Tapper effect (17/12/2013)

Since May 2013, FII have withdrawn $ 13 billion from debt market in India with US announcing Tapering

FII holding in Indian rupee debt is $ 24.6 billion which was $ 37 billion

RBI during this time has gathered $ 34 billion through special deposit scheme for NRI

RBI plays it cool (18/12/2013)

Repo rate unchanged at 7.75 percent CRR at 4 percent of net demand and time liability (NDTL) Reverse Repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF)

remained unchanged at 6.75 percent

Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate stood at 8.75 percent.

Mutual funds selling spree (26/12/2013) moneycontrol Mutual funds had a tough 2013. Volatile equity markets

forced domestic funds to focus more on debt market, eyeing higher interest rates.

Domestic mutual funds offloaded shares in November selling equities worth Rs 482 crore in the month to take total outflows from equities to Rs 13,721 crore in 2013 so far.

They have invested Rs 4.3 lakh crore in the debt market in the first 11 months of the year.

India Inc Debt trap (26/12/2013) As of september 2013, there are 3700 listed companies Total borrowing Rs. 24,00,000 crores That is quarter of India GDP as per Credit Suisse Of this, Rs. 8,00,000 crore is with companies whose Interest

burden is more than operating profit Future group reduced its debt to Rs. 3500 crore from Rs.

10,000 crore by exiting financial services and part of retail business

Bharti Airtel raised $ 1.26 billion by selling 5 % stake to Quatar Foundation to reduce its debt of $ 9.69 billion

Hedge funds performed in derivatives (26/12/2013) Business line

Hedge funds using equity derivatives strategies delivered 18.2% return from January to November 2013

Return of Sensex has been 6.6% 2011 Hedge funds gave 28.3% 2012 Hedge funds gave 6% 2013 Hedge funds gave 18.2% Other strategies of India focused hedge funds gave -7.1 %

negative return Average Global Hedge funds return have given annualized 9.78

% with annualized std deviation of 5.20% since December 1999 to November 2013

In 2013, Global Hedge funds delivered average return of 7.1% while MSCI world index gave 21% return

Core sector slows (1/1/2014)

Core sector growth came to 1.7% in November as against 5.8% in Nov 2012

Fiscal Deficit has reached 94% of Budget Estimate

This creates hurdle to achieve Fiscal deficit of 4.8% as targeted by Government

New land act comes into force (1/1/2014) The first day of 2014 saw the 119 year old Land Acquisition law being

repealed. The new land acquisition act enacted by the parliament last year comes into force today.

The new law mandates that land will have to be bought at four times the market rate in rural areas and at double the market rate in urban areas.

Thirteen legislations including the National Highways Authority of India Act and the coal Mines Nationalisation Act will have to be amended to reflect the new compensation rates.

Angel Investors invest in start ups (2/1/2014)

162 deals closed worth Rs. 3700 crores 45 % of all investments made went to

start ups in 2013 as compared to 41% in 2012 and 36% in 2011

FII REACH HEADROOM (3/1/2014)

In last 4 years FII have invested Rs. 3,71,000 crores

More than total investment that come in last 9 years starting 2001.

In last 4 years, barring 2011 average net investmetn buying by FII has been $ 20 billion

Brokers shut shop (8/1/2014)

600 brokers have shut their business 18000 people became job less BSE cash market turnover reduced by

70% which was Rs 11 lakh crore in 2011 is not Rs 3 lakh crore in 2013 december

NSE cash market turnover reduced by 48% from Rs. 35 lakh crore to Rs. 18 lakh crore.

FII net sellers (8/1/2014)

The first six trading sessions of 2014 saw FII selling stocks worth Rs. 567 crores

The political uncertainty is creating issue.

Foreign investors also sold cash shares worth Rs 567 crore on Tuesday, totalling sales of Rs 839 crore since Thursday, regulatory and exchange data shows.

Retail inflation declines (14/1/2014)

Consumer Price Inflation fell to 9.87% in December from 11.16% in November.

Vegetable inflation eased to 38.76% in December from 61.6% in November.

Interest rates on PF deposit raised to 8.75%

Commercial Vehicles space in disaster (15/1/2014) Money control

Despite staring at a debt level of over Rs 5,000 crore Ashok Leyland is being forced to continue big discounts on its heavy duty trucks. Just last week the company unveiled a new state-of-the-art heavy duty truck 'Captain' -- with plans of launching 18 vehicles on the same platform -- in an effort to spruce up demand but it has ruled out any cut back on discounting just yet which has hit an all-time high of Rs 180,000 per vehicle for the company.

After being snubbed by the government on its plea for an incentive package to revive the CV industry, there seems to be no light at the end of the tunnel. M&M says discounts have reached a level of upto Rs 400,000 per vehicle.

Tata Motors too saw its margins hit a rock bottom of 0.9 percent in the last quarter as losses reached Rs 803 crore on a standalone basis. Average cash discounts for the company have touched Rs 200,000 per heavy duty truck

Coal india pays its highest dividend to Govt (15/1/2014)

Coal India has paid Rs.16,485 crores as dividend to government

Its highest ever dividend paid by coal india in all these years

Govt target is to raise Rs. 40,000 crore through disinvestment

So far it has been able to raise Rs. 3000 crore only

PMI rises highest in one year (4/3/2014)

HSBC Purchasing Manager Index for manufacturing sector came to 52.5 in February since February 2013

The survey was based on 500 large manufacturing firms.

Sensex PE ratio sector wise (4/3/2014) Sector 2008 2014 Finance 21.2 11.2 IT 23.4 22.0 FMCG 29.0 33.7 OIL GAS 21.7 9.2 Telecom 42.7 174.3 Power 35.4 11.7 Metals 14.7 17.0 Capital goods 50.3 16.4 Pharma 20.9 30.0 Automobile 18.2 13.3

Weightage in Sensex (4/3/2014) Finance 25.5% IT 18% FMCG 14.6% Oil Gas 13.9% Automobile 9.6% Pharma 5.8% Capital goods 4.5% Metals 3.5% Power 2.4% Telecom 2.3%

UPA vs NDA numbers (6/3/2014) Economy grew 50 % faster under UPA than in NDA UPA fought with once in lifetime depression for 6 years out of its 10 year

while NDA has comfortable economic environment In UPA II the annual GDP growth rate was 7.1 % while world average

GDP was 1.5 % Under UPA, Debt to GDP ratio down to 67 % while China debt to GDP

is 200 % In 2004, Inida debt to GDP ratio was 85 % up from 73 % in 1999 Under NDA the Gross Fixed Capital Formation, a measure of

investment was around 25 % while under UPA it was 33 % under the current macro economic environment. RUSSIA GFCG is 20 %

Under NDA, India spent 50 % of its budgetary receipts for interest payment only, unsustainable ratio while under UPA it has come down to 30 %. The remaining 20 % is used for subsidies and programme like NGERA.

UPA vs NDA numbers (6/3/2014) Both UPA and NDA had poor show for employment figures On inflation UPA has problem while NDA managed well. Could

be as commodity prices were low when NDA was there. Since 2002 the prices of commodities have went up by 6 to 7

times. Since 1980 world economies have grown because of huge debt

capital used. China grew because of huge debt capital

Now neither western countries nor china can stretch their balance sheet.

CAD at 8 years low (6/3/2014)

April – December CAD is at 2.3 % of GDP Last year it was 6.5 % Last year same peirod it was 5.2 % For the full year CAD could be in range of $ 35

to 40 billion Import duty on gold raised to 10 % from 2 %

which helped reduced import In oct - December quarter CAD is $ 4.2 billion

as compared to $ 31 billion

SEBI wants MF to grow multifold (6/3/2014) Mint AUM is currently at Rs. 8,00,000 crores In 5 years target is to reach Rs. 20,00,000 crores Currently top 15 cities account for 87% of AUM SEBI proposes to have mutual fund linked retirement plan In USA same concept called as 401K plan SEBI estimates if 10 % of 36 million tax payers invest Rs.

50,000 then also annually Rs. 18000 crores would come into mutual funds

Employee Provident Fund Organization (EPFO) has total corpus of Rs. 5.46 trillion

SEBI has proposed to Government that 15 % of this should be allowed to invest into equity or equity oriented funds.

Market at all time high (6/3/2014)

BSE Sensex has touched all time high of 21513

FII have poured in $ 1 billion in last 15 trading sessions

In 2014 January and February, FII net investment in debt is Rs. 30,000 crores and in equities it is Rs. 3900 crores

ECB and Bank of England leaves rate unchanged (7/3/2014) Moneycontrol

The European Central Bank (ECB) left its benchmark rate unchanged at record low of 0.25 percent

Earlier in the day, the Bank of England (BoE) also left interest rates at a record low of 0.5 percent and its gilt purchase target unchanged at £375 billion (USD 617 billion).

WPI inflation falls low (18/3/2014)

WPI inflation came to 9 month low at 4.7%

SBI paid advance tax of Rs. 1456 crores for the March quarter

FOMC MEET US (20/3/2014)

US FED CUTS BOND BUYING TO $ 55 BILLION FROM $ 65 MILLION

GDP GROWTH PROJECT AT 2.3% Unemployment likely to fall from 7.5 % to

6.7% US Current Account deficit at 14 year

low at $ 81 billion

SUUTI to sell 9 % in Axis Bank (21/3/2014)

Specified Undertaking of Unit Trust of India (SUUTI) to sell 9 % in Axis Bank

It will help Govt to raise Rs. 5500 crores The total proceeds of Govt from share

sale will go to Rs. 21000 crores which is more than earlier estimate of Rs. 19000 crores.

SEZ scheme a non-started (21/3/2014) 389 SEZ have been notified Only 185 functional means have only one export unit

functional SEZ have to pay 18.5 % Minimum Alternate Tax SEZ gets 100 % tax exemption for first 5 years 50 % tax exempt for next 5 years 50 % of ploughing back of profit in next 5 years.

FII Pour money into india (26/3/2014) ($ million)

Country FII March YTD India 2172 2579 Indonesia 1121 1978 Japan -7061 -19499 Philipines 268 233 S.Korea -1789 -3459 Taiwan 1337 1780 Brazil -262 319

FII Pour money into india (26/3/2014) ($ million)

FII have invested close to $ 2.5 billion into Indian markets over past one month

FII withdrew $ 2 billion from China and $ 1billion from korea

Invested $ 0.5 billion in Brazil

RBI KEEPS RATE UNCHANGED (1/4/2014)

Repo Rate at 8 % Reverse Repo Rate at 7 % CRR at 4 % SLR at 23%

RBI has kept rates unchanged.

INDIAN MACRO IMPROVING (31/3/2014)

Fiscal Deficit at 4.6% Plan Expenditure at Rs. 4.75 lakh crore CAD at $ 35 billion Exports at $ 326 billion GDP seen at 4.9% April to February WPI at 5.9% Forex Reserves at $ 300 billion

FII money into Debt markets (4/4/2014)

From January to March 2014 quarter FII have invested Rs. 35000 crores into indian debt market

The biggest such quarterly inflow ever accroding to SEBI

FII Debt Market Flows (4/4/2014) (Quarterly flows)

Quarter ending Rs. crore Dec 2011 22555 March 2012 16874 June 12 5875 Sep 12 13935 Dec 12 9607 March 13 14923 June 13 -24326 Sep 13 -27000 Dec 13 -12563 March 14 35531

WTO see Global Trade to raise (15/4/2014)

WTO see global trade at 4.7 % in 2014 Last two years global trade has been

2.2% But still below average of 5.3 % for last

two decades

WTO see Global Trade to raise (15/4/2014)

Countries Exports Imports Developed Nation 3.6 3.4 North America 4.6 3.9 Europe 3.3 3.2 South & central

America 4.4 4.1

Asia 6.9 6.4

FII Big buyers (15/4/2014)

FII have purchased shares worth Rs. 30,000 croes since February 1st

The Sensex have risen by 11 %

WPI inflation rises to (16/4/2014)

March WPI inflation at 5.7% In February it was 4.68 % at 9 month low IIP data has also come -1.9 % which

shows contraction in industry Capital goods a vital indicator at -17.4 %

vs -4 %

Auto Slump Claims 2 lakh jobs (17/4/2014) About 2 lakh jobs have been lost due to production cuts

in auto industry The auto industry employs 19 million direct and indirect

workers This is below the target of 25 million workers by 2016

under 10 year Auto Mission plan of the government Past 25 months there is negative sales streak for heavy

trucks and buses In last one decade there is deepest decline in car sales

FII flows continue (29/4/2014)

The net investments by FIIs into Indian equity markets since the beginning of 2014 have crossed USD 5 billion over Rs 30,000 crore), while the same for debt markets also stands near USD 5 billion (about Rs 29,000 crore)-- taking the total to close to Rs 60,000 crore.

There were over 1,700 registered FIIs in the country, along with close to 6,400 sub-accounts.

Commodity Exchanges new norms (6/5/2014) According to the new guidelines, individuals can’t hold more than 5 percent in a

commodity exchange, unlike the earlier norms where they held around 24 percent. Only an already existing commodity exchange, a depository, banking company, an insurance company and a public financial institution is allowed to hold around 5-15 percent in a commodity exchange.

Even foreign investors are not allowed to hold more than 5 percent. Through this, the regulator is clearly ensuring that the concept of anchor investor doesn’t exist from now onwards. This will also have an impact on the bidding process since, now many players like Reliance Capital , Tata Capital may not be able to hold more than 5 percent as an individual entity.

Sources indicate that Kotak may have an upper hand, since if it applies through Kotak ace, commodity exchange, it can hold upto 15 percent in the exchange and it will be interesting to see who all will not be in the race.

The new guidelines are set to expedite the MCX stake sale process. Since the norms also spell out that if a person is not fit and proper and has a pending divestment, then his voting rights are suppose to extinguish.

China real estate market slows down (7/5/2014) moneycontrol According to a survey by China Real Estate Index System (CREIS), 45

of the 100 cities experienced month-on-month property price declines in April, up from 37 cities in March. Meanwhile, property investment in China has also lost steam as bank funding for developers tightens. Property investment accounted for about 12 percent of China`s gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter, down from 15 percent in 2013, according to Reuters.

Inflation rises again (12/5/2014)

CPI inflation at 8.59 % vs 8.31% IIP at -0.5 % vs -1.9% Capital goods at -12.5% vs -17.4 % Manufacturing sector at -1.7% Food inflation 9.66% Rural inflation 9.25 % vs 8.89%

FII pour Rs. 1 lakh crore (19/5/2014) money control Foreign investors have pumped in over Rs one lakh crore

in the Indian securities market since Narendra Modi was announced as the prime ministerial candidate by Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) in September 2013.

As per latest data compiled by capital markets regulator Sebi, the net investments by FIIs into Indian equity markets stood at Rs 88,772 crore since the announcement. The same for debt markets was at Rs 13,399 crore -- taking the total to Rs 1,02,171 crore.

FII pour Rs. 1 lakh crore (19/5/2014) money control FIIs, the main driver of the equity market, have helped

pushed up the benchmark BSE Sensex by over 22 per cent since September 13.

In 2014 alone, FIIs have infused a net amount of over Rs 74,000 crore in the domestic market, which included more than Rs 41,000 crore in equities and nearly Rs 33,000 crore in the debt.

Currently, there are 1,700 registered FIIs in the country, while the number of sub-accounts stood at 6,408.

GDP stagnant (30/5/2014)

GDP growth at 4.6% Annual GDP growth at 4.5% Core sector 8 industries growth at 4.2%

vs 2.7% last year

RBI CUTS SLR (3/6/2014)

RBI keeps Repo rate at 8 % Reverse Rate at 7 % MSF at 9% CRR at 4 % SLR (statutory Liquidity Ratio) reduced

by 50 bps from 23% to 22.50 % The cut in SLR releases Rs. 40,000

crores into the system

RBI Increases overseas investment limit

Overseas investment limit increased to US $ 1,25,000 from earlier $ 75000

Last year the limit was reduced from $ US 2,00,000 to US $ 75000

Indian residents and non residents except pakistani and bangladeshi can take upto Rs. 25000 outside india

Nifty Companies at low valuation (11/6/2014)

Company Current PE 10 year avg Cairn India 6.3 13.8 NMDC 9.6 15.0 Tata Steel 8.3 10.8 IDFC 9.9 15.2 HDFC Bank 17.3 20.8 ICICI Bank 14.2 16.9

Inflation and IIP falls (12/6/2014)

IIP data has come to 3.4 % as compared to -0.5 %

Manufacturing accounts for 75 % in IIP where as electricity and mining account for 25 %

Core sector data had also come 4.2 % as compared to 2.7%

Inflation has come to 8.28% as compared to 8.59 %

WPI inflation rises (16/6/2014)

WPI inflation at 6.1% as compared to 5.3% last month

Food articles index rose to 2.3 percent on a month-on-month (MoM) basis as food articles inflation saw an uptick at 9.50 percent versus 8.64 percent in the previous month.

Govt Announces measures to control food inflation (18/6/2014)

Govt tells state governments to crack down on hoarders and black marketers of food articles

Allow farmers to directly sell fruit and vegetables to any customer instead of being forced to go to specified markets and mandis, where middlemen thrive.

Onions to be exported at $ 300 per tonne not below that which would ensure that less exports take place

States have been advised to delist fruits and vegetables from APMC Act

If Delhi and Vashi market; the two biggest fruits and vegetable markets in Delhi and Mumbai, if you can tackle these two, half of India's fruits and vegetable can be streamlined.

Govt Announces measures to control food inflation (18/6/2014)

This is because the commissions of the commission agent of the wholesalers and even at the retail level range from 30-50 percent, and that is where the farmer gets a lower price, consumer has to pay a much higher price. We have to compress this value change to make them efficient and that required the change in law and that was the APMC Act.

Excess Rice and Wheat to be released from the Godown of FCI (Food Corporation of India)

Fin Ministry plans to divest 7 PSU (19/6/2014) PSU Govt Stake % Coal India 89.65 Sail 80.00 MMTC 90.00 NMDC 80.00 NHPC 85.96 Nalco 81.06 Nevili Lignite 90.00 Government can get Rs. 22,000 crore from 10 % stake

sale in Coal India Disinvestment target kept at Rs. 36000 crores

Core Sector Data slips (1/7/2014) India's core industry growth for May slowed to 2.3 percent

versus 4.2 percent month-on-month (MoM) and 5.9 percent year-on-year (YoY). Core sector is 38 percent of IIP.

The government’s May coal output grew 5.5 percent versus 3.3 percent MoM,

while crude oil output declined 0.3 percent against 0.1 percent decline MoM.

May electricity output grew 6.3 percent against 11.2 percent (MoM).

Steel output in May saw a month-on-month decline at 2 percent versus 3.1 percent growth in April.

Core sector growth (1/7/2014)

Month Core sector % January 1.6 February 4.5 March 2.5 April 4.2 May 2.3

Fiscal deficit to be higher (1/7/2014) Fiscal deficit was targeted by Chidambaram at

4.1 % (assuming revenue would rise 19 %) But actually revenue has gone up by 3.1% only Fiscal deficit is Rs. 2.4 lakh crore which is

45.6% of budget estimate. This was last year 33 %.

The fiscal deficit in 2013-14 was 4.6% as compared to 4.9 % earlier

IIP Rises to 19th month high (14/7/2014) The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for the month of May came in at

4.7 percent versus 3.4 percent month-on-month. The factory output in May is at a 19-month high – highest since October

2012. Electricity sector growth came in at 6.3 percent against 11.9 percent

MoM. Manufacturing sector growth too jumped to 4.8 percent versus 2.6 percent in April. Mining sector growth too improved at 2.7 percent against 1.2 percent MoM.

The jump in May IIP data is slightly surprising considering India’s core industry growth for May slowed to 2.3 percent versus 4.2 percent month-on-month (MoM) and 5.9 percent year-on-year (YoY) and core sector is 38 percent in the Index of Industrial Production.

WPI inflation cools (14/7/2014)

Wholesale Price Index inflation in June declined to 5.43 percent from 6.01 percent in May.

Food articles inflation slipped to 8.14 percent from 9.50 percent primary articles inflation dropped to 6.84 percent versus 8.58

percent but manufactured products inflation increased marginally to 3.61 percent versus 3.55 percent month-on-month.

April WPI inflation was revised upwards at 5.55 percent as against 5.20 percent provisional.

CPI cools down (14/7/2014)

CPI cools down to 7.31% as against 8.28%

This may give room for RBI to reduce interest rates

Retail investors flock back to equity funds (16/7/2014) Rs. 7309 crore came in equity mutual funds in June 2014

highest since Jan 2008 Rs. 9761 crore total flows into equity mutual funds in May

and June Rs. 12072 crore Gross sales of equity schemes in june Since may 2014 20 new brokers have registered with

BSE and 36 fresh application for membership is in process

Core sector growth jumps (31/7/2014)

June Core sector growth at 7.3% vs 1.2% year on year

Its at 9 month high April to june core sector growth at 4.6%

vs 3.7% year on year

India July HSBC PMI (1/8/2014)

India July HSBC manufacgturing PMI at 53 vs 51.5 month on month

China July official PMI rises to 51.7 from 51 which is 27 month high indicating growth coming back

China PMI rises to 51.7 which is 18 month high

CAD Still concern (4/8/2014) money control CAD, which is the excess of foreign exchange outflows over

inflows, touched a historic high of USD 88 billion or 4.7 per cent of GDP in 2012-13, mainly due to rising imports of gold and petroleum products.

In order to check rising CAD, the government had raised import duties on the yellow metal to 10 per cent, while RBI imposed curbs on import of gold and also laid down various pre-conditions for inward shipments of the precious metal. It came down to USD 32.4 billion or 1.7 per cent of GDP in 2013-14.

US unemployment rises (4/8/2014)

US unemployment rises to 6.2 % For the sixth consecutive month US

created more than 2,00,000 jobs

China service PMI falls (5/8/2014)

China's Jul HSBC svcs PMI falls to lowest in almost 9 years The services purchasing managers' index(PMI) compiled by HSBC/Markit fell to 50.0 in July from a 15-month high of 53.1 in June, the lowest reading since November 2005 when the data collection began.

India July Services PMI falls (5/8/2014)

India July Service PMI has fallen from 54.4 to 52.2 on a month on month basis.

This shows slight slow down in the services sector also.

667

RBI CUTS SLR (5/8/2014)

RBI cuts SLR 50 points to 22 % from 22.5%

Repo rate unchanged at 8 % CRR unchanged at 4 % Reverse repo rate at 7 %

US Economy Motors on, borroiwng at 7 year low US Treasury borrowing is at 7year low since 2007 due to

stronger economy boost tax revenue Treasury has paid down $ 64 billion in marketable debt in Arpil

June quarter. Cash balance was $ 130 billion in June Budget deficit has been falling since 2009 and in 2014 it is

projected to be 2.8% of GDP which was 9.8% in 2009 when Barak Obama took charge

The US Economy has expanded 4 % in April to June quarter 2014.

SEBI oks REITs (11/8/2014)

Paving the way for Rs 1 lakh crore fund inflows from foreign and domestic investors, Sebi on Sunday cleared new norms for setting up and listing of Real Estate and Infrastructure Investment Trusts.

The new guidelines, which herald a new investment avenue in India on the lines of one in developed markets like the US, UK, Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore, would allow trading in units of REITs and InvITs like any other security on stock exchanges.

Minimum investment amount for REITs has been fixed at Rs 2 lakh and at Rs 10 lakh for InvITs for now, given the complex nature and potential risks associated with them.

SEBI oks REITs (11/8/2014)

The REITs alone can attract USD 8-10 billion worth funds. Talking to reporters after the board meeting, Sebi Chairman U K Sinha said that these trusts would help in the progress of the real estate and infrastructure sectors.

The government feels that these new investment avenues would reduce the pressure on the banking system while also making available fresh equity in form of long-term finance from foreign and domestic sources including the NRIs

PPF vs Equity (25/8/2014)

PPF can beat equities over 20 year period Since 1994 Sensex was 4588 and now it is at

26420 in 2014 Annualised return of Sensex is 9.15 % while

PPF has given 10.46% Rs. 10,000 invested in 1994 in Sensex gives

today Rs. 57520 and in in PPF gives Rs. 73,124 Since august 2007 Senesx annualised return is

8.10%

Indian GDP rises (29/8/2014)

Indian GDP at 5.7% vs 4.6% Highest in 10 quarters Economy coming back on track Rise in GDP due to Government

spending on social sector at 9.9% vs 3.3%

Govt Spending reduces as fiscal year ends due to target of meeting fiscal deficit

FIIs pump huge money (8/9/2014)

FII pumped Rs. 3400 crores in Equities in first week of september

FII pumped Rs. 5000 crores in Debt market

Totally they have invested Rs. 9000 crores in Indian markets in first week of september

Alibaba worlds biggest IPO (9/9/2014) Chinese e-commerce behemoth on Friday said it expects

to price its IPO between USD 60 and USD 66 per share to raise as much as USD 24.3 billion - making it the largest US public offering in history.

At USD 66 a piece, Alibaba would be valued at USD 163 billion - below analysts` expectations for a valuation of more than USD 200 billion.

Facebook, the world`s largest technology IPO to date, raised USD 16.01 billion in its May 2012 debut in New York. It had a market capitalization of USD 81.25 billion, according to Associated Press.

Coal block decision delay (9/9/2014) he Supreme Court has reserved its order in the coal block allocation

case and has also refrained from giving any specific date to pass the order. The apex court heard the final arguments today to determine the fate of 218 coal blocks awarded since 1993 which it has termed as "illegal" and "unconstitutional.“

The government at the hearing on September 1, left it to the apex court to decide the fate of these coal blocks, held as illegal by it, while stating that about 40 blocks are operational and another six are ready to produce 50 million tonnes coal in the current year.

NRI may find it easier to invest in india (10/9/2014)

1991 through SBI India Development Bond had raised $ 1.6 billion

1998 Resurgent Bonds which college $ 4.2 billion after Nuclear test put sanctions by USA

In 2001, India Millennium Deposits raised $ 5.5 billion

GMR group debt (12/9/2014)

GMR group debt has increased to Rs. 37000 crores

The stock trades at 25 Rs. High debt kills the EPS growth

LIC king of personal loans (12/9/2014)

LIC has given secured personal loans against LIC policies of Rs. 60,000 crore

LIC gives loans at 10 % Bank loans against FD are Rs. 54,200

crore Bank loans against shares Rs. 3200

crore

Difficult to do business in india (12/9/2014)

Vodafone India chief says difficult to do business in india

In china telco are reglated and three players have invested $ 50 billion in network last year

India has spend only 10% of that in createion of networks

Vodafone still faces Rs. 20,000 crore in tax problems.

Inflation stubborn and IIP slows (12/9/2014)

CPI Inflation has been stubborn at 7.8% from 7.96% last month

IIP slowed down from 3.4 % to 0.5 % which shows still recovery is not sustaining

August WPI at 5 year low

Inflation data based on wholesale price index (WPI) for August hit a five year low at 3.74 percent vs 5.19 percent seen in July

Food inflation in August hit a lowest level since January 2012. It eased to 5.15 percent versus 8.43 percent on a month-on-month (MoM) basis.

Further, August fuel inflation also hit a five-year low with the fuel and power group inflation declining to 4.54 percent versus 7.40 percent (MoM).

NPA rising (15/9/2014)

According to ICRA report, there has been rise in NPA loans to 38%

It was Rs. 1.65 trillion which has now become Rs. 2.27 trillion

Trade deficit narrows to $10.83bn in Aug; exports slow Trade deficit during the period (April-August) stood at USD 56.15 billion down from USD 70.6 billion during the same period last year.

FII flows continues (16/9/2014)

Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) flows during calendar year 2013 invested Rs.1,13,000 croes while DII were net sellers to the tune of Rs. 74,000 crores. In 2014 till date FII have invested Rs. 86,000 crores while DII sold shares worth Rs. 34,000 crores. Taking the net investment to Rs. 51,500 crores.

Corporate raising funds (16/9/2014)

In this year Indian corporates have raised Rs. 26,000 crores through Institutional Placement

They plan to raise Rs. 50,000 crores in coming months as more QIP are expected to follow

Expected fund raising in next 12 months (16/9/2014)

Methods Rs. Crores PSU Divestment 45000 Banks FPO 40000 IPO & FPO 35000 Hind Zinc & Blaco Pvt 20000 SUUTI Stake sale 10000

ET 500 reflects revival sweeping across india (16/9/2014)

Total revenue of top 500 listed companies have increased by 11 %

The total rise in revenue is Rs. 67 lakh crore

1 year return of stocks (16/9/2014) Company 1 year return Sensex 37.1 RIL 18.9 IOC 69.1 BPCL 119.5 HPCL 136.1 Tata Motors 64.4 SBI 67.7 ONGC 54.4 Tata Steel 120.2 Essar oil 123.2 Hindalco 104.5

Govt cash rich (22/9/2014)

Govt has reduced its first half borrowing by Rs. 16000 crore and may not borrow this at all.

Govt had budgeted to borrow Rs. 3.68 trillion in first half and Rs. 2.32 trillion in the second half of FY15.

Govt to ask ministries to spend more This would help GDP to grow as spending would create demand

and consumption

PM Prepares to help world make in India(22/9/2014)

Govt would set up fully functional online system

Budding entrepreneurs can get 100 central and state government approvals online

Only one single window clearance system.

Manufacturing growth stagnated (22/9/2014)

Year Manufac share in GDP 1993-94 14.6% 2003-04 15.2% 2013-14 14.9%

Facts about India (I watch book) Krishnan Khanna India contributes 2.6 % in world GDP India has 17 % of world population India contributes 2.2% in world trade which

means 97.8% world trade not with India Our per capita income is $ 1583 per year as

compared to China $ 5210 and USA $ 47000 300 million people live below poverty line Criteria for BPL is Rs. 26 per day in rural india

and Rs. 32 per day in urban area

Facts about India (I watch book) Krishnan Khanna Literacy ratio is 61 % as compared to china 93 % 88% is drop out rate between kinder garden and 12 std in

india. In China all children go through compulsorily 9 years of

schooling 2,50,000 india go abroad every year for studies which

result into Rs. 75,000 crore of forex spending This amount can be used to create 60 IIM and 40 IITs Only 28000 foreing students come to india for studies

while in Dubai it is 50,000, Australia 4,00,000 and singapore 1,50,000

Facts about India (I watch book) Krishnan Khanna

India has 1.2 billion population and china 1.3 billion

In India 28 million people are born every year while in China 17 million

Life expectancy in India is 67 years and in china is 75 years.

Core Sector Grows (1/10/2014) Core sector growth for the month of August was 5.8% vs

2.7% in July Last year In august core sector growth was 4.7%

Experts believe that the overall core sector growth of 5.8 percent is a positive for the economy given that it forms 37 percent of the index of industrial production.

IMF lowers world growth to 3.3% (13/10/2014) Sentiment on global growth has taken the severest knock since the

global FINANCIAL crisis. Mid-September data showed that Chinese industrial output grew by just

6.9 percent in August, down from the 9 percent level in July, that's the lowest level since 2008;

last week data showed that German industrial output in August slid 4 percent, the biggest fall in 5-1/2 years.

And earlier this week, the IMF pulled down global growth numbers for 2014 to 3.3 percent from 3.4 percent forecast in June and 3.7 percent forecast in April.

IIP Data again shocks (13/10/2014)

IIP data has come to 0.4 % as compared to projection of 2.4 %

Last month also the IIP data had come to 0.5%

Validity of IIP data under question as too much volatility

WPI cools to 5 year low (14/10/2014) Inflation data based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for

September eased to 5-year low at 2.38 percent against 3.74 percent on a month-on-month basis on lower food and fuel prices.

Food inflation, which came in at 33-month low, stood at 3.52 percent against 5.15 percent

Fuel and power group inflation came in at 1.33 percent against 4.54 percent on a month-on-month basis. Manufactured products inflation came in at 2.84 percent against 3.45 percent. The July WPI inflation has been revised to 5.41 percent from 5.19 percent.

Trade Deficit widens (14/10/2014)

Trade Deficit widens to $ 14 billion Exports went up by 2.38% Imports up by 20 % Oil imports up by 9.76% Non Oil Imports up by 36% Out of $ 4 Billion rise in imports, gold

accounted for $ 1.75 billion and another $ 1 billion was due to jems and jewellery

DLF promoters barred (16/10/2014)

DLF has total debt of Rs. 19000 crore Annual interest outflow of Rs. 13500

crore

Brokers closing (16/10/2014)

Brokers are closing their shops though markets up

Corporate brokers 400 got closed Sub Brokers from 51000 have come to

46000. In sep 2013, the total number of sub brokers was 79000

In 2014, around 7700 sub brokers got closed

Switzerland exports gold to India (27/10/2014) business line

Gold exports from Switzerland to India has reached record high of Rs. 70,000 crore

In september 2014 alone the export was Rs. 15000 crore

Gold being used for “layering” purposes to move funds from Swiss bank to India

Europeans banks fail stress test (27/10/2014) Business line

13 banks out of 130 top European banks have failed stress test

They need to increase their capital buffer against losses by $ 12.5 billion

ECB has given 2 weeks time to banks to increase their capital buffer

India set to grow 6.4% in FY16: World Bank (28/10/2014)

Buoyed by expectations from the new government, the World Bank asserted that India's growth story is on track with its economy set to grow by 6.4 percent in FY16 and at 7 percent the following fiscal versus 5.6 percent in FY15.

The multi-lateral FUNDING agency also forecasts FY15 inflation (WPI) at 4.3 percent and current account deficit at 2 percent.

Oct 28, 2014, 08.27 AM IST | Source: CNBC Why OPEC's losing its ability to set oil prices

US shale oil will replace the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries as the first-mover "swing producer," according to a Goldman Sachs report

The shift in pricing power became apparent to Goldman when U.S. shale's spare capacity, at around 5 million barrels per day, exceeded Saudi Arabia's spare capacity of 1.5 million

Spare capacity refers to the amount of crude a country is able to produce in 30 days in case of an emergency.

By 2019, US shale OIL production will jump to 9.6 million barrles per day, from 8 million now.

In comparison, Saudi Arabia currently produces 9.6 million barrels of crude oil a day.

Snapdeal makes the news (29/10/2014)

Softbank is japan Internet and telecom group

Its has invested $ 627 million (Rs 3800 crores) in Snapdeal

It had invested $ 20 million in Ali baba which is now $ 80 billion

US ends its bond buying program (30/10/2014)

USA has ended its bond buying programme

It had announced $ 85 billion per month bond buying

It has ended as economy has revived strongly

Interest rates still to remain till next year

Small shareholders in suspended companies suffer (30/10/2014)

Stocks No of retail investors Consortex Kari 4,00,122 Birla Power 2,03,633 Silverline tech 1,98,135 Nextgen Animation 1,79,062 Ispat Profiles 1,42,823 NEPC Agro 1,34,870 Bellary steel 1,09,529

Govt relaxes FDI in construction sector (30/102014)

Minimum Foreign investment cut to $ 5 million from $ 10 million

Minimum Floor area cut to 20,000 sq m from 50,000 sq m

No conditions for projects with 30 % affordable housing

Japan gives stimulus (3/11/2014) business line

Bank of Japan has increased it bond buying from Yen 60 trillion to Yen 80 trillion

Increased maturity time from 7 to 10 years

It was pleasure surprise for global markets as US Fed has stopped the “Quantitative Easing”.

Inflation cools and IIP rises (12/11/2014) Inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the

month of October eased to its all-time low of 5.52 percent, the lowest since India started computing consumer price index (CPI) in January 2012, triggered by lower food prices and fuel costs.

Meanwhile, the index for industrial output (IIP) for the month of September came in at 2.5 percent beating street estimate of 2 percent, against 0.4 percent in August.

Trade deficit falls (17/11/2014)Exports hit 7 month low India's TRADE deficit in October narrowed sharply to USD 13.36 billion

from USD 14.25 billion in the previous month courtesy decline in oil imports.

However, on an annual basis, trade deficit has surged 26.1 percent to USD 13.36 billion. India's imports fell to USD 39.45 billion from USD 43.15 billion in September, but on a year-on-year basis, it has increased 3.16 percent. Oil and gold are the key contributors to India's import bill. Oil imports fell to USD 12.36 billion as against USD 14.50 billion, on a month-on-month basis. Non-oil imports stood at USD 27.08 billion as against USD 28.65 billion, m-o-m. GOLD imports surged to USD 4.18 billion from USD 3.75 billion in the previous month.

On a year-on-year basis, gold imports jumped to USD 4.17 billion from USD 1.09 billion. This spike in could be because of the festivals like Diwali and Dhanteras, which are considered as most auspicious occasions in India to buy the yellow metal. Silver imports also rose to USD 686 million from USD 477.61 million in September.

Global investors poll (18/112014)

Best opportunities over next 12 months Country % USA 49 India 22 China 22 EU 17 UK 17

KVP back in flavour (18/11/2014) Financial savings were at 12% in FY 10 which

reduced to 7.1 % in FY 12 Kisan Vikas Patra is relaunched Denomination of Rs. 1000, R.s 5000,Rs.

10,000, Rs. 50,000 No upper limit of investment Money doubles in 100 months (8 years 4

months) Annual return of 8.7% Encash certificate after lock in of 2.5 years

GDP slows (28/11/2014)

GDP growth comes to 5.3 % vs 5.7 % last quarter

Last quarter growth was 4.6 % which was 10 year low

World Economy still fragile (1/12/2014)

China PMI falls to 49.6 which is at 6 months low

China's economic growth is expected to slow to a 24-year low of 7.4 percent

European Union to roll out more stimulus Bank of Japan has increased Yen

stimulus from 60 trillion yen to 80 trillion yen

Core Sector picks up (1/12/2014)

Core Sector growth comes to 6.3 % The HSBC PMI hit a 21-month high in

November at 53.3 versus 51.6 in October. Manufacturing operating conditions in India improved for the thirteenth month in a row in November

Bank of England (5/12/2014)

Bank of England leaves rates unchanged a 0.5 %

Continues asset buying programme of 375 billion pounds

NSE seeks 25 % from Brokers for SGF (5/12/2014)

Stock Brokers who are clearing members will have to give 25 % to core SGF fund

This money cannot be used for margin Additional cost may hit business NSE has Rs 625 crores, BSE Rs. 129

crores and MCX-SX 17 crores as SGF

Trade deficit widens (8/12/2014) CAD increased from 1.7% to 2.1% of GDP Exports 4.9% vs 11.1% Imports $ 10 billion vs $ 5 billion Increase in gold imports Export growth slid to 4.9 percent in Q2 of 2014-15 from 11.9

percent YoY, Imports increased by 8.1 percent in Q2 of 2014-15 as against a

decline of 4.8 percent in Q2 YoY, largely due to a sharp rise in gold imports.

Trade deficit in Q2 now stands at USD 38.56 billion versus USD 34.6 billion in the preceding quarter.

WPI at 0 % (15/12/2014)

WPI inflation at 0 % vs 1.77% month on month

Food inflation at 0.63% vs 2.77% All commodities down 1.3% Manufactured products inflation at 2.03

% vs 2.43% Fuel and power -4.91%

FII rush back in 2015(22/12/2014)

Year Net flows ($ billion) 2012 24 2013 20 2014 16.5 In 2014 Sensex has given return of 32 %

1 $ billion = Rs. 6000 crore (Rs. 60 per dollar)

Indian manufacturing contracts (22/12/2014)

Indian Manufacturing output contracted 0.7% in 2013-2014 for first time in 2 decades and only third time after national gained independence

In october the IIP has contracted 4.2% National Manufacturing Competitive

Council (NMCC) needs to be revamped

CSR now geeting real (23/12/2014) For CSR the following conditions Rs. 500 crore profit or more OR Rs. 1000 crore turnover or more OR Rs. 5 crore net profit or more Out of 9,50,000 companies only 16000 come under CSR

rule According to estimates Rs. 22000 crores would be spend

in CSR this year but implementation is slow

Mutual Funds (23/12/2014)

Rs. 10.67 lakh crore Assets managed by Indian Mutual funds industry

67% is through distributors 33% through direct investments 90% investment in equity and 55% in debt is

through distributors SEBI plans to reduce expenses incurred by

funds to 1.5 % of assets as compared to 2.5 % which was set 20 years ago

USA Economy back on track (24/12/2014) The U.S. economy grew at a 5.0 percent clip in the third

quarter, its quickest pace in 11 years and the strongest sign yet that growth has decisively shifted into higher gear.

Wall Street had expected growth would be raised to only a 4.3 percent rate.

The reports further set the U.S. economy apart from the rest of the world, where growth is sputtering or activity shrinking.

China Nov industrial profits fall 4.2%, steepest in 27 mths (29/12/2014)

China Nov industrial profits fall 4.2%, steepest in 27 mths

the biggest annual decline since August 2012.

In October, profits slid 2.1 percent compared with the same month in 2013.

Companies raise 14 % in 2014 (29/12/2014) moneycontrol Cos raise Rs 39,127 cr in 2014; down 14% from

2013: PRIME Saving grace came in the form of the 33 QIPs this calendar year, which saw Rs 31,684 crore being raised from institutional investors, the highest in 5 years, accounting for 81 percent of the total amount mobilized this year

Rs 45,440 crore raised in the 2013

Global Indian money may be treated as local (31/12/2014)

Since April 2000 ( In $ billion) Total FDI 235 Investment by NRI 4.7 Share of NRI (%) 2 Government plans to merge Persons of

Indian Origin (PIO) and Overseas Citizens of India

Amazon and Flipkart wrestle to shoppers (31/12/2014)

Flipkart to raise Rs. 1300 crore though rights issue and borrow Rs. 400 crore from Kotak Mahindra Bank

FY 14 Revenues it had Rs. 2846 crores but loss of Rs. 400 crores

AMAZON to issue shares worth Rs. 610 crore to parent company

FY 14 $ 1 billion sales but loss of Rs. 321 crores

Repo Rate (31/12/2014)

Dates Repo Rate (%) July 27 2010 5.75 Mar 17, 2011 6.75 Oct 25, 2011 8.5 April 17, 2012 8.0 May 3, 2013 7.25 Jan 28, 2014 8.0

Cleanse PSU Banks (31/12/2014)

PSU Banks have stressed assets t 12.9% of their total loans in Sep 2014

Private Banks have stressed assets at 4.4% of their total loans in Sep 2014

The Return on Equity for PSU banks was 8.44% while for Private Banks it is 16.22%

Sensex Returns and FII Flows (31/12/2014)

Year Sensex(%) FII flows ($ billion) 2010 17.4 29.3 2011 -24.6 0.4 2012 25.7 24.5 2013 9.0 19.9 2014 29.4 16.0

Sensex Returns (31/12/2014)

Year Sensex Return (%) 2014 30 % 1985 93% 1991 82% 2006 46% 2007 47% 2009 81 %

Investment & not interest rates matter (31/12/2014)

From 1952 to 2010, study for American companies showed that profitability drives investment rather than lowe interest rates.

Interest rate is one of the catalyst but not the core one

Promoters need to put in more capital (31/12/2014) Take project of Rs. 10,000 crore project with 70:30 debt equity.

Promoter has to put in Rs. 3000 crore as equity. But he can get only Rs. 1000 crore. So he inflates cost of project to Rs. 15000 crore.

Now his equity contribution comes to Rs. 4500 crore but he gets credit worth Rs. 10,500 crore more than enough to finance his entire project.

During implementation through promoter owned companies, money will be taken out of the project to fund a part of his equity contribution and grease palms that allow such inflated project cost to go not just unchallenged but actually blesssed.

Best Performing Equity markets in 2014 (31/12/2014)

Markets % Return in 2014 Agertina 56.62 China 49.61 Venezuela 38.35 Egypt 32.77 India 29.44

Core sector growth rises (31/12/2014)

8 core sector growth rises to 6.7% vs 6.3% month on month

It is at highest level since june 2014

Govt fiscal deficit high (31/12/2014) Govt touches fiscal deficit at 98.9% in just 8 months India's fiscal deficit was Rs 5.25 trillion (USD 83.08 billion)

during April-November, or 98.9 percent of the full-year target, government data showed on Wednesday.

The deficit was 93.9 percent during the same period a year ago.

Difficult to have fiscal deficit of 4.1% annually

Markets Tanked (6/1/2015)

Markets tanked 3 % biggest fall after June 2009

FII sold in cash market Rs. 1500 crores of shares

Greece exit talks from EU main reason. Greece has 177 % Debt t GDP ratio and Unemployment level of 62 %

Greece failing (6/1/2015)

Greece has to repay 6 to 7 billion Euro in July and August 2015

It may run out of cash in March 2015 In elections in Greece in January 2015, if

opposition wins, they would tear up MOU signed with EU.

Greece falling out of EU would create panic for world markets

SBI wants to merge with UTI (7/1/2015) AMC AUM (Rs. Crore) HDFC 1,50,468 ICICI Pru 1,36,763 Rel Capital 1,26,069 Birla Sun Life 1,07,968 UTI 87,390 SBI 72,142 The merger if happens would make the largest AMC

Divestment coming soon (12/1/2015)

Govt plans to sell Coal India stake to raise Rs. 24000 crores

In 2010, Govt had sold 10% in coal india to raise Rs.15000 crores

IIP wins (12/1/2015)

November IIP improves from -4.2% to 3.8 %

IIP at 5 month high Inflation CPI from 4.38% to 5% Manufacturing fro m -7.6% to Capital goods from -2.3% to 6.5% Manufacturing -7.6% to 3 %

Pvt Life Insurers Find tough (13/1/2015) LIC opened 1313 offices in 2013-2014 Pvt Life insurance companies closed 732 offices and

opened 166 offices Net closure of offices 566 Industry saw 9.43% rise in premium income mainly due

to LIC while Pvt life insurance companies saw fall of 1.35% fall in premium collection

Life Insurance Industry reported profit of Rs. 7588 crores during 2013-2014. Six companies in private sector gave dividend

Total agents in industry is 21.88 lakhs

VC funds back (13/1/2015)

Venture capital firms are on road to raise neary $ 2 billion or Rs. 12,400 crore to invest in startups in India

In 2014 firms raise $ 1 billion to invest in start ups

World bank report (14/1/2015)

World bank Bi-annually report says world GDP to grow at 3 % in 2015 and 3.3% in 2016

Earlier forecast was 3.4% and 3.5% “The global economy is running on one single engine…

the American one” India to grow at 7 % in 2016 Russia -2.9% in 2015 and 0.1% in 2016 Eurozone 1.1% in 2015 Japan 1.2% in 2015

RBI cuts Repo Rate (15/1/2015)

RBI cuts Repo rate by 0.25% to 7.75 % from 8 %

Reverse repo rate now 6.75% CRR at 4 % SLR at 22 % MSF and Bank Rate at 8.75% (earlier it

was 9 %)

Dec trade deficit at $9.43 bn vs $16.86 bn (MoM) Trade deficit during December fell sharply to USD 9

billion from USD 16.8 billion in November 2014.

While exports for the month came in at USD 25.40 billion from USD 25.96 billion in November, imports declined to USD 34.83 billion from USD 42.82 billion in the previous month.

Eurozone gives stimulus (22/1/2015)

ECB has given 60 billion euro stimulus per month till sep 2016

Total quantum to be 1.14 trillion euros Interest rates kept unchanged

10 challenges India faces (23/1/2015) 1. Revive Growth (job creation) 2.Improve consumer sentiments (rate cut) 3.Revive Investment through public spending (pvt sector in huge debt so govt has to spend) 4.Fiscal Consolidation (2016 target 3.6% and 2017 target 3 %) 5. Supply side inflation (Investment in supply chain, higher farm productivity) 6. Disinvestment (Target of Rs. 43000 crore but only Rs. 1700 crore achieved) 7. Bad loans of State Run Banks (Gross NPA has touched 5.32% in Sep 2014) 8. Boost Financial Savings (Higher savings so money for investments) 9. Aggressive taxation (Retrospective tax to be removed) 10. Improve Ease of Doing Business

Bad loans of State Run banks (23/1/2015)

Period Gross NPAs March 13 3.84 Sep 13 4.82 March 14 4.72 Sep 14 5.32

India ask US for investment in smart cities (23/1/2015)

Make in India to boost 25 manufacturing sectors

Since 2000 USA has invested $ 13 billion into India

USA is the sixth largest investor in India In 2013-2014 US Companies have

invested close to $ 1 billion

Euro zone elections (27/1/2015)

Opposition party has won elections They want to cancel 2012 MOU with EU Greece has Debt to GDP ratio of 177% Greece has unemployment of 62% Greece may run out of cash in March Greece has to pay 6 billion euro in july

Unemployment rates in Europe

Germany 8 % UK 20% France 24% Italy 40 % Spain 57% Greece 62%

Rate cut saw 2000 points rally (29/1/2015)

RBI rate cut has lead to 2000 points in last 10 trading sessions

Stocks Points contributed HDFC bank 449 ICICI bank 245 Axis bank 184

RBI CUTS SLR (3/2/2015)

RBI cuts SLR by 50 bps from 22 % to 21.5 % Repo rate at 7.75% Reverse Repo rate at 6.75% CRR at 4 % Benchmark policy rate at 7.75%F FII can invest in Corporate bonds with 3 year maturity RBI to allow Interest rate future contracts on 5-7 year, 13-15

year Govt bonds

US creating jobs (9/2/2015)

USA consecutively for last 11 months have added more than 2,00,000 jobs on monthly basis

The best turn since 1994 Average of 3,36,000 jobs created a

month for the past 3 months, the best in last 17 years

Govt infuses Rs. 6990 crore in 9 PSU banks (9/2/2015)

Govt would infuse Rs. 6990 crore in 9 Public Sector Banks

This decision comes surprise to reports that Govt would infuse only in those PSU banks who perform.

14th Finance Commission (25/2/2015)

States to get 42 % as compared to earlier 32 % from central taxes

States given more autonomy to implement welfare programmes

States will co-operate more for GST now with Centre this initiative

Greece Gets Time (24/2/2015)

Greece gets 4 months time for repayment schedule

Lenders accepts reforms list given by Greece

Some breathing time for world economy Greece has Debt to GDP ratio of 177% Unemployment rate at 62 %

China PMI rises (25/2/2015)

China PMI has increased from 49 .7 to 50.3

First time in last 3 months Raising hope that Chinese economy

comes back on track China GDP is already at 24 years low at

7.4% which is lowest since 1990 when it had registered 7.6%

3 PSU banks to raise Rs. 4500 crore in Perpetual bonds (26/2/2015)

Bank Gross NPA Fund Rate % Canara 3.35 1500 cr 9.55 UBI 5.08 2000 cr 10.08 Dena 5.61 1000 cr

10.25 Perpetual bond do not have maturity

dates Under BASEL III, perpetual bond is more

of quasi equity obligation

SEBI Planning OFCD in IPOs (26/2/2015) IPO could have Optionally Fully Convertible Debentures If share price goes below lising, the investors gets

principal and Interest If share price goes above lisitng, the investor can convert

debenture into shares and sell Objective to give retail investor protection of capital Between 2008-2011 out of 117 stocks, 72 that is 62 %

were trading below issue price after six months of listing.