Considerations for the 2018 duck season*

*Current as at 08 December 2017

Content

Duck hunting in Victoria

Climate

Bureau of Meteorology reports

Habitat Availability

Eastern Australia Aerial Waterbird Survey

Population Indices of Abundance and Distribution

Eastern Australia Aerial Waterbird Survey

Harvest Statistics

Victorian Harvest Estimates

Summary

References

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Duck hunting in Victoria• There are approx. 26,300 hunters licensed to hunt duck in Victoria.

• Duck hunting is regulated to ensure it remains safe, sustainable, humane and

equitable.

• Victoria’s game ducks are highly resilient to harvesting and have strong powers

of recovery in response to harvesting and favourable environmental conditions.

• There is no evidence to show that adaptively regulated duck hunting puts at risk

the conservation status of game ducks.

• The Victorian duck season is prescribed under the Wildlife (Game) Regulations

2012 to occur every year between the third Saturday in March and the second

Monday in June. Daily bag limits and hunting methods are also set.

• The Ministers may modify (increase/decrease bag limits and season dates,

further regulate time, place and methods) the prescribed arrangements under

section 86 of the Wildlife Act 1975.

• A number of factors are reviewed each year to ensure duck hunting remains

sustainable, including current and predicted environmental conditions such as

habitat extent and duck population distribution and abundance.

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ClimatePast and present climatic conditions dictate

present environmental conditions

Climatic predictions can be used to

consider whether environmental conditions

will change into the future

Annual rainfall deciles

2012 2013 2014

2015 2016

Source: BoM website

2017

Long-term drought condition (36 months)

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• Meteorologists monitor the extent and severity

of drought in terms of rainfall deficiencies.

• Rainfall deficiency maps are an indicator of

drought conditions.

• Long-term rainfall deficiencies have reduced

across much of Australia over the last twelve

months.

Long-term drought situation in 2016 Long-term drought situation in 2017

Source: BoM website

The Bureau's drought maps highlight areas considered to be suffering from a

serious or severe rainfall deficiency. These classes are assigned by first

examining rainfall periods of three months or more for selected places

throughout Australia to see whether they lie below the 10th percentile (lowest

10% of records). The terms serious an severe are defined by -

• Serious rainfall deficiency: rainfall lies above the lowest five per cent of

recorded rainfall but below the lowest ten per cent (decile range 1) for the

period in question,

• Severe rainfall deficiency: rainfall is among the lowest five per cent for the

period in question.

Areas where the rainfall is lowest on record for the given time period are also

shown.

Drought declaration is the responsibility of State and Federal Governments which must consider other factors apart from rainfall.

Short-term drought conditions

Source: BoM website

• Above to very much above average rainfall over western Victoria, parts of southwestern and southeastern New South Wales, most of South Australia, northwestern Queensland and the north and interior of Western Australia, has reduced deficiencies in these areas.

• November rainfall totals were below average for the eastern half of southern Victoria, from Melbourne to Cann River in Gippsland, nearly all of Tasmania, the southwest of Western Australia and part of the Gascoyne, and scattered pockets of eastern Australia, mostly close to the coast.

• Deficiencies still remain in parts of eastern Victoria and Tasmania.

12 months 3 months

Note: These maps don’t reflect any changes as a result of early December rainfall

Recent rainfall analysis (actual mm received)

Winter – Spring 2017

Spring 2017

Source: BoM website 8

Spring 2017

Recent rainfall Analysis cont.. (deciles - rainfall received compared to historical averages)

Winter – Spring 2017

• Below to very much below average rainfall has been recorded over the

winter to spring period in the Gascoyne and Pilbara in Western

Australia, parts of South Australia's northern agricultural districts, areas

of New South Wales between the west and eastern tablelands, in

eastern Victoria, and east coast Tasmania.

• In late Spring, above to very much above average rainfall over western

Victoria, parts of southwestern and southeastern New South Wales,

most of South Australia, northwestern Queensland and the north and

interior of Western Australia, was recorded, easing deficiencies. 9

Significant rain event

1-4 DecemberA significant rain event in early December resulted in

minor flooding in parts of south-eastern New South

Wales and north-east and south-east Victoria.

Runoff last 30 days

• Runoff impacts the availability of

water in the wetlands and the

health of riverine systems.

• It has a direct influence in the

creation and maintenance of

waterbird habitat.

• Much of eastern Victoria and parts

of southern NSW has experienced

high levels of runoff on the last

month.

Source: BoM website 11

Summer rainfall predictions

• South-eastern QLD, coastal and inland NSW, eastern Victoria and

much of western and north-wester WA, is predicted to have above

median rainfall.

• The rest of Australia, with the exception of far-north QLD, and the

Norther Territory, is predicted to have median rainfall.

Historical outlook accuracy for summer is moderate for eastern and western parts of Australia, but generally low elsewhere.

The summer rainfall prediction can be used to indicate the potential impact on habitat for the forthcoming season.

Source: BoM website 12

Southern Oscillation Index

• The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is used as one indicator of whether

Australia is being affected by an El Nino (drier conditions) or La Nina (wetter

conditions) or whether conditions are stable.

• When the SOI is positive, eastern Australia tends to receive above average rainfall. When

negative, drought tends to occur.

• Readings between +7 and -7 are considered neutral.

• The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 3 December is +11.1 (90-day value +8.9).

• The current El Nino/La Nina status has moved from La Nina alert to La Nina.

All modelling indicates that the tropical Pacific will persist at La Niña thresholds over the Australian summer with a transition back to ENSO neutral by April 2018.

Source: BoM website 13

Dec-Feb temperature predictions

• Summer daytime and overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for

most of the eastern two-thirds of Australia.

Next update will be on 21 December 2017

Historical accuracy for maximum temperatures is moderate over most of Australia, except the southern NT, SA, Victoria and eastern NSW, where accuracy is low

Warmer

Cooler

Source: BoM website

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Habitat availability

Water storage levels

• Deep man-made storages do not provide

good waterbird habitat but they can

provide an indication of the availability of

waterbird habitat and water-flow into

feeder systems.

• The total (Melbourne and Regional)

Victorian water storage levels are

currently at 76%

• Storage levels decreased by 4.5 % from

the same time last year.

Source: BoM website 2017

Note: These graphs are current as at 4/12/2017

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Water storage levels

• Across the entire Murray-Darling basin (a critical area for waterfowl

production), storage systems are at 69.1% of capacity, 18% lower

than the same time last year

• Australia-wide, storage levels are slightly lower than last year.

Source: BoM website 201717

Streamflow predictions (Nov-Feb)

• BoM predicts low and near-median stream-flows are more

likely at 57 and 49 locations respectively across Australia.

High flows are expected at 24 locations, mostly in

northeastern Australia.

• Victorian predictions indicate near median stream-flows are

likely in most survey areas (see above image).

Legend

Likelihood of high flow (%)

Likelihood of near median flow (%)

Likelihood of low flow (%)

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Pasture conditions

• Pasture conditions are a coarse indicator of potential

feeding habitat for grazing species, such as Wood Duck

and Mountain Duck, and nesting habitat for ground nesting

waterbirds.

• Pasture growth varies from below average to above

average at different locations throughout Victoria.

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Eastern Australian Aerial Waterbird Survey

Aim: To monitor changes in the abundance and distribution indices of waterbird species in eastern Australia.

• Conducted annually in October, since 1983.

• Provides • an index (not total count) of abundance of waterbirds

and game ducks • information on the distribution of waterbird and game

duck populations along survey bands• the extent and distribution of habitat along survey bands,

and • limited information on waterbird breeding.

• Waterbirds are counted from the air on up to 2000 wetlands across eastern Australia.

• Up to 50 species of waterbirds are counted on all water bodies larger than 1 ha.

• The information is valuable for examining waterbird trends on over one-third of continental Australia and over a long period.

EAAWS wetland area index

• The wetland area index is a

measure of wetland

availability across all 10

EAAWS transects.

• The 2017 wetland area index

of surveyed sites was below

the long-term average.

Total Wetland Area

Index

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EAAWS wetland distribution

20172016Circles indicate major

wetlands or complexes

along transects. However,

all wetlands over 1 ha are

counted along transects

• Following below average rainfall in central and southern Queensland, most of New South Wales and eastern Victoria in 2017, wetland area and distribution has declined, mostly in southern Queensland and northern NSW.

• Waterbirds were concentrated in bands 2 and 9.

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POPULATION INDICES OFABUNDANCE & DISTRIBUTION

EAAWS index of waterbird

abundance (all waterbirds)• Up to fifty waterbirds species are surveyed in October each year and

includes all Victorian game species and non-game species such as

swans, Freckled Duck, ibis, coots etc.

• The abundance index is not a total count. It provides information on

the trends in waterbird abundance along the survey bands.

• Total waterbird abundance increased considerably from 2016 but

remains below the mean: the 12th lowest in 35 years.

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Game duck abundance index

• This index includes information on

game ducks only.

• Index has increased from

previous year but is still below the

long-term mean.

The abundance index must be considered in

context with a number of factors including:

• distribution of birds

• habitat availability and distribution

• climatic forecasts

• concentrations of birds

2017 index of game duck abundance is the 17th

highest on record

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Relative abundance of game duck

species 1983-2017 (EAAWS)

The majority of game birds detected in 2017 EAAWS were:

Grey Teal – 53.8%, Pink-eared Duck 18.2%, Wood Duck – 13%, Black Duck –8.5% and Hardhead - 7.9%.

Note: This aerial survey is

not well suited to detecting

Wood Duck or other

species that inhabit rivers,

creeks and waterways

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EAAWS waterbird distribution 2017

• The greatest concentrations of waterbirds were observed in Bands 2, and 9 (orange above).

• There were very few large concentrations of waterbirds. Onewetland system (marked with an ) and Band 2 accounted for ~64% of total recorded abundance.

Where the habitat is

Where most birds are

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Waterbird breeding

EAAWS total breeding index (all

species combined) was low and

below the long-term average.

The number of species breeding

was low with 6 species detected

breeding.

Most of the breeding

occurred in transect 1

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Waterbird abundance, distribution and

habitat - summary

Where the

ducks areWhere the

habitat is

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Victorian Harvest

Estimates 2017

Victorian harvest estimates: 2017

Harvest statistics can provide information on the health and dynamics of game duck

populations, including distribution, abundance and productivity.

In 2017:

• A peak of 26,324 hunters were licensed to hunt duck

• 43% of licence holders (~10,383) hunted the 2017 opening weekend (compared to

47% or 11,807 in 2016).

• An estimated 66% of licensed duck hunters hunted ducks at some time during the

season.

• Average number of days hunted during the 2017 season was 3.83 days (long-term

average is 4.08).

• Estimated total hunter days for the 2017 season was 96,508 (long-term average is

97,119).

• Total seasonal harvest was estimated at 438,353 (long-term average is 385,571).

• An estimated 74,128 ducks were harvested on opening weekend almost 17% of the

total estimated seasonal harvest.

Harvest estimates are at 95% confidence intervals 31

Victorian harvest estimates: 2017

…cont• About 17.4 ducks were harvested per licence holder for the 2017 season

(compared with the long-term average of 16.09)

• More duck hunting occurred on public land (51.7%) than on private land (46.1%),

with the remainder reporting they hunted on both land classifications

• Approximately forty-eight percent (47.7%) of the estimated harvest was reported to

solely occur on private land versus 49.4% on public land, with the balance on both

land classifications

• Total harvest was estimated to be greatest in the North Central CMA, followed by

the Goulburn Broken CMA and the West Gippsland CMA. The top five towns

were (in descending order) Sale, Shepparton, Boort, Horsham and Kerang.

• Licence holders who hunters had took 4.53 ducks per hunter day, or 115% of the

long-term average of 3.94 ducks per hunter day

The following table summarises this information

Harvest estimates are at 95% confidence intervals 32

Victorian harvest estimates: 2009-2017Estimates 20091 20102 2011 2012 2013 2014 20153 20164 20175 Average

2009-2017

Licensed

hunters

18,348 21,861 23,716 24,533 24,036 26,261 25,837 25,681 26,324 24,070

Total #

hunter days

76,659 85,801 103,450 109,718 91,748 118,800 91,264 100,749 96,508 97,119

Total harvest 222,302 270,574 600,739 508,256 422,294 449,032 286,729 271,576 438,353 385,571

Average #

days hunted

in the season

4 4 4.5 4.6 3.7 4.6 3.6 3.9 3.8 4.1

Seasonal

harvest per

licence

holder

11.1 12.5 26 21.2 17.2 17.3 11.4 10.5 17.4 16.1

Opening

weekend bag

per hunter

4.5 4.2 9.2 5.3 9.5 5.7 5.8 5.1 7.1 6.3

Average #

ducks per

day hunted

2.7 3.1 5.7 4.6 4.6 3.7 3.1 2.6 4.5 4.0

Modified season

1. Two (2) birds per day with an additional three (3) Wood Duck. No Blue-winged Shoveler, Pink-eared Duck or Hardhead duck (49 day season)

2. Five (5) birds per day with an additional three (3) Wood Duck. No more than 1 Blue-winged Shoveler (72 day season)

3. Ten (10) birds per day which included a maximum of two Blue-winged Shoveler on opening day. Five (5) birds per day which includes a

maximum of one Blue winged Shoveler for remainder of season (80 day season)

4. Eight (8) birds on opening day. Four (4) birds per day for remainder of the season. No Blue-winged Shoveler hunted in 2016 (87 day season)

5. Ten (10) birds per day. No Blue-winged Shoveler hunted in 2017 (87 day season)33

Victorian harvest estimates: 2017

Black Duck, Grey Teal and

Wood Duck consistently

make up the majority of the

harvest each year34

SUMMARY

General summary

Climate• Long-term rainfall deficiencies have reduced across much of Australia, with above to very

much above average rainfall over western Victoria, southern New South Wales, most of

South Australia, north-west Queensland and northern Western Australia.

• In late Spring, above to very much above average rainfall was exhibited throughout the

majority of Australia, with the exception of eastern Victoria and Tasmania, coastal New

South Wales and the South Australian northern agriculture district.

• At the start of Summer, a significant rainfall event was observed throughout South

Australia, Victoria and parts of New South Wales.

• All climate models predict La Niña conditions which will persist until April 2018.

• The rainfall outlook for Summer shows northeast New South Wales and regions

surrounding the Gulf of Carpentaria are likely to be drier than average. Elsewhere across

the country, there is no strong signal showing wetter or drier conditions for summer.

• Much of eastern Victoria and parts of southern New South Wales have experienced high

levels of runoff.

• Summer daytime and overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for

most of the eastern two-thirds of Australia.

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General summaryHabitat and bird distribution and abundance

• Waterbird habitat has decreased throughout eastern Australia over the past 12

months and the wetland area index is below the long-term average.

• The total waterbird (all species) abundance indexes are below the long-term average:

the 12th lowest on record.

• Total game duck abundance index is higher than last year and is the 17th highest on

record – this is predominately due to an increase in Grey Teal population index.

• Waterbirds are concentrated in relatively few important sites, with 64% of the birds

surveyed near the New South Wales/ Victoria border, and at Lake Galilee (QLD). The

other birds detected were scattered across the remaining transects.

• Waterbird breeding is low and well below the long term average. The number of

species detected breeding was also low.

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General summary

The 2017 duck hunting season

• The daily bag limit for the 2017 duck season was ten ducks with no Blue-winged

Shoveler, the season length remained unchanged.

• The total seasonal harvest was 113.7% higher than the long-term average of 438,353

birds.

• The average seasonal harvest per hunter was 17.4 birds an increase in the long-term

average of 16.1.

• Hunters participated an average 3.98 days hunting which was 93.9% of the long-term

average.

• Total hunter days was 96,500, slightly lower than the long-term average of 97,119.

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References

Australian Government - Bureau of Meteorology - www.bom.gov.au

University of New South Wales 2017, Aerial Survey of Wetland Birds in Eastern

Australia- October 2017 Annual Summary Report, report prepared by RT Kingsford,

JL Porter, K Brandis.

Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research 2017, Draft Technical Report

Estimates of Harvest for Duck and Stubble Quail in Victoria: Results From Surveys of

Victorian Game Licence Holders in 2017.

Department of Science, Information Technology and Innovation (Queensland) –

www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au

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