Current and Future Trends of Steel Consumption in...
Transcript of Current and Future Trends of Steel Consumption in...
Current and Future Trends of Steel Consumption in Thailand
1 October 2014
By Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand
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Content
Macro economics situation
Steel industry in 2013 and 2014 outlook
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Content
Macro economics situation
Steel industry in 2013 and 2014 outlook
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Thai Economy in 2013 & Q1&Q2/2014
Source: Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB)
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Private consumption expenditure expanded slightly after 3 consecutive quarters of contraction, while Consumer Confidence Index began to improve.
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Private investment declined due to the contraction in machinery and equipment and construction investment.
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Industrial sector continued to contract for five consecutive quarters, though showing a slight improvement compared with the previous quarter following the increases in export industries.
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Content
Macro economics situation
Steel industry in 2013 and 2014 outlook
Crude Steel Production of Aug 2014 is 134.9M tons; 3.1%increasing from Aug 2013
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Source: World Steel Association
136,695
124,990
141,335
136,626
141,184
137,122 136,819134,956
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
World crude steel production
EU: -0.1%
CIS: -5.7%
N.America: 3.1%
S.America: -1.3%
Aug 2014: 134.9 Million tonnes
(3.1%)
Asia: 4.1%
Oceania: -13.1%
Middle East: 2.0%
China
Major countries crude steel production (‘000 Tonnes)
South Korea India
U.S. RUSSIATurkey
China’s Crude Steel Production of Aug 2014 is 68.9M tons; 4%increasing from Aug 2013
Source: World Steel Association
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68,727
62,076
70,25068,835
70,43269,294
68,324 68,910
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
China Crude Steel Production
6,954
6,280
7,250
7,015 7,080
6,7326,960 7,027
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
India Crude Steel Production
7,329
6,691
7,405
7,027
7,4657,228
7,609 7,682
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
America Crude steel production
5,909
5,339
6,028
5,800
6,0535,888
6,203 6,169
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Russia crude steel production
2,829
2,666
2,845
2,620
3,0163,124
2,8232,902
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Turkey crude steel production
6,040
5,291
6,127 6,0986,164
6,0485,897
5,285
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
South Korea crude steel production
Flat Product Prices (USD/Tonne)
Source: SBB and ISIT analysis
Flat Product’s Price of August 2014 is decline while the Slab Price increase
373 378 383
500 505 510
565528 526
655615 605
147111 113
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
26 M
ar 1
2
16 A
pr 1
2
7 M
ay 1
2
28 M
ay 1
2
18 J
un 1
2
9 Ju
l 12
30 J
ul 1
2
20 A
ug 1
2
10 S
ep 1
2
1 O
ct 1
2
22 O
ct 1
2
12 N
ov 1
2
3 D
ec 1
2
24 D
ec 1
2
14 J
an 1
3
4 F
eb 1
3
25 F
eb 1
3
18 M
ar 1
3
8 A
pr 1
3
29 A
pr 1
3
20 M
ay 1
3
10 J
un 1
3
1 Ju
l 13
22 J
ul 1
3
12 A
ug 1
3
2 S
ep 1
3
23 S
ep 1
3
14 O
ct 1
3
4 N
ov 1
3
25 N
ov 1
3
16 D
ec 1
3
6 Ja
n 14
27 J
an 1
4
17 F
eb 1
4
10 M
ar 1
4
31 M
ar 1
4
21 A
pr 1
4
12 M
ay 1
4
2 Ju
n 14
23 J
un 1
4
14 J
ul 1
4
4 A
ug 1
4
25 A
ug 1
4
Scrap Slab HRC CRC Prem Low Vol HCC - FOB $/t
Long Product Prices (USD/Tonne)
Source: SBB and ISIT analysis
Flat Product’s Price of August 2014 is decline from the previous months
545
461448
538
523 518
373 378 378
760
640 640
560
485 465
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
26
Mar
12
16
Ap
r 1
2
7 M
ay 1
2
28
May
12
18
Jun
12
9 J
ul 1
2
30
Jul
12
20
Au
g 1
2
10
Se
p 1
2
1 O
ct
12
22
Oc
t 12
12
No
v 1
2
3 D
ec 1
2
24
Dec
12
14
Jan
13
4 F
eb
13
25
Feb
13
18
Mar
13
8 A
pr
13
29
Ap
r 1
3
20
May
13
10
Jun
13
1 J
ul 1
3
22
Jul
13
12
Au
g 1
3
2 S
ep
13
23
Se
p 1
3
14
Oc
t 13
4 N
ov
13
25
No
v 1
3
16
Dec
13
6 J
an 1
4
27
Jan
14
17
Feb
14
10
Mar
14
31
Mar
14
21
Ap
r 1
4
12
May
14
2 J
un
14
23
Jun
14
14
Jul
14
4 A
ug
14
25
Au
g 1
4
Rebar Billet Scrap Merchant Bar Wire Rod
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In 2013, Thailand apparent steel use was 17.7 million tons, increased by 4.6% from 2012
12,661
13,876
12,154
12,718 13,528
10,644
13,871
14,411
16,914
17,676
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f
Production Import Export Apparent steel use
4.6%
CAGR 13/12
Thailand apparent steel use (‘000 Tonnes)
17,698
-2.5% 8.5% -0.3%
Source: Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand
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Thailand steel demand in 2013, the demand rising is beneficial to import, not for local production
Total ('000 tonne) 2013 2012 %Change '13/'12
Production 6,845 7,020 -2.5%
Import 12,249 11,293 8.5%
Export 1,396 1,400 -0.3%
Apparent Consumption 17,698 16,914 4.6%
Long ('000 tonne) 2013 2012 %Change '13/'12
Production 3,959 4,051 -2.3%
Import 2,930 2,483 18.0%
Export 961 890 7.9%
Apparent Consumption 5,928 5,643 5.1%
Flat ('000 tonne) 2013 2012 %Change '13/'12
Production 2,886 2,970 -2.8%
Import 9,318 8,811 5.8%
Export 434 509 -14.7%
Apparent Consumption 11,770 11,271 4.4%
Source: Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand
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Construction industry remained the highest steel
consumer 50.9% in 2013.
Source: Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand
50.9%
22.4%
11.7%
10.8%
4.3%
Construction is major steel consuming sector 2013
Construction
Automotive
Machinery & Industrial
Appliance
Packaging
Ratio Long product : Flat product = 32 : 68
Demand breakdown
- Construction 50.9%
- Automotive 22.4%
- Machinery & Industrial 11.7%
- Appliance 10.8%
- Packaging 4.3%
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In 2013, Thailand demand of steel per capita was 274 kilograms.
Source: Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand
150
156
267 282 256 257
246
229 232
169 219
229 262
274
279 9,273
9,700
16,764
17,775
15,838
16,063
15,443
14,43014,729
10,758
14,01214,647
16,914
17,676
18,117
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E
Demand per capita (Kg) ASU (1,000 tonnes)
Thailand demand per capita (Kg)
17,698
18,140(E)
Thailand steel industry structure
Ironmaking Steelmaking Finishing & Coating End Users
Scrap recycle
Hot-Rolling
Hot-Rolling Cold-Rolling Coating
Construction50%
Automobiles and parts
23%
Machinery and Industrial Products
12%
Electrical Appliances
11%
Packaging4%
Cold-Drawing
Forming
16 Mills• TATA• G Steel• GJS• SYS• TRIUMP• Etc.
Production:4.2 m TImport:3.7 m TExport:0.2 mTDemand:7.7 m T
ImportRussia, Ukraine, Turkey, Brazil
ExportVietnam, Philippines, India, Taiwan
Long Product
Flat Products
3 Mills• SUS• TCRSS• Bluescope
1 Mill (stainless)
• POSCO-Thainox
Production: 1.7 m TImport:0.7 m TExport: 0.1 m TDemand: 1.6 m T
Import
Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan, China
Export
China, India, Italy, Indonesia
~ 50 Mills• TATA• Sahaviriya• Tycoon• Etc.
Production: 3.7 m TImport: 1.7 m TExport: 0.8 m TDemand: 4.7 m T
~ 100 Mills
1,000 Mills
Machining
Bending
Cutting
Welding
Forging
Heat Treatment
Etc.
1 Mill• TATA
(Mini-Blast Furnace)
Source: Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand
5 Mills• G Steel• GJ Steel• Sahaviriya• LPN
Production: 3.9 m TImport: 3 m TExport :0.3m TDemand : 4.2 m T
ImportJapan, S. Korea, Australia, China
ExportVietnam, Malaysia, Laos
~ 15 Mills
• Bluescope• Thai Tin Plate
Production: 0.8 m TImport: 2.2 m TExport: 0.1m TDemand: 2.9 m T
Import
Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan, China
Export
Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Hong Kong
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Thailand steel industry currently under-utilized assets
Source: Iron and Steel Institute of ThailandRolling mills
Mini mills
Thailand capacity and capacity utilization
Capacity Output %CU
Billet 5,508 2,277 40-45%
Bar 5000 (Est.)2,989 45-50%
HR section 2,142
WR 1,546 622 40-45%
Seamless pipe 200 n.a n.a
HRC 7,000 2,701 35-40%
HRP 1,100 309 25-30%
CRC (Carbon & STS) 2,800 1,387 50-60%
HDG 560 141 20-25%
TP&TF 780 385 45-50%
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New investment in Thailand
Source: Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand
Production Start in 2013 investment news 2014
• Dongbu Thai Steel-Pre-coated Metal Sheet-Capacity (TPY.) 80,000
• Nippon Steel & SumikinGalvanizing (Thailand)
-Galvanized/Galvannealed Steel-Capacity (TPY.) 360,000
• JFE Steel Galvanizing (Thailand) -Galvanized Steel sheet-Capacity (TPY.) 400,000
• PCM Processsing (Thailand) (New Continuous Color Coating Line)
-Pre-painted steel sheet-Capacity (TPY.) 72,000
oNSSMC & BlueScope Steel planed to produce a signature coated sheet product call ‘Super Dyma’with Capacity 200,000 TPY.
oPosco will start building a new continuous galvanizing line in Thailand to produce exclusively autosheet with Capacity 400,000 TPY.
In the first half of 2014, Total Apparent Finished Steel Consumption was 8.3 Mt, down by 14.6% y-o-y. Long Product Finished Steel Consumption down by 9.6% y-o-y.
Long Steel consumption comparison for Jan-Jun 2014
Source: Customs Department and ISIT analysis
Jan-Jun 2014 Production %y-o-y change Import %y-o-y change Export %y-o-y change Consumption %y-o-y change
Total Apparent Finished Steel Consumption 3,347,851 -10.0% 5,677,225 -15.6% 716,790 0.1% 8,308,286 -14.6%
Long Product Finished Steel Consumption 1,929,022 -12.6% 1,475,726 -1.0% 505,904 2.5% 2,898,844 -9.6%
Long Product Bar Carbon steel 1,697,546 120,712 -40.8% 111,377 3.2%
Stainless steel 5,538 -17.3% 5,729 -4.5%
Alloy steel 192,314 -11.9% 32,993 39.9%
HR section Carbon steel 90,356 86.1% 215,264 0.4%
Stainless steel 1,409 -22.1% 1,132 335.4%
Alloy steel 12,558 42.2% 1,099 -13.9%
Wire rod Carbon steel 231,476 120,379 -8.8% 7,568 -29.3%
Stainless steel 30,006 27.1% 99 -83.6%
Alloy steel 602,529 7.5% 343 1,459.1%
Cold-drawn bar 28,928 -5.7% 12,704 21.6%
Steel wire 91,921 -5.7% 79,655 -13.2%
Seamless pipe 179,076 12.8% 37,941 42.3%
-10.3%
-26.4%
1,752,839 -13.6%
976,380 -4.2%
H12014
Flat Product Finished Steel Consumption was 5.4 Mt, down by 17.1% y-o-y. While consumption of semi-finished steel down by 11.5% y-o-y.
Flat Steel consumption comparison for Jan-Jun2014
Source: Customs Department and ISIT analysis
Jan-Jun 2014 Production %y-o-y change Import %y-o-y change Export %y-o-y change Consumption %y-o-y change
Total Apparent Finished Steel Consumption 3,347,851 -10.0% 5,677,225 -15.6% 716,790 0.1% 8,308,286 -14.6%
Flat Product Finished Steel Consumption 1,418,830 -6.2% 4,201,499 -19.8% 210,886 -5.2% 5,409,442 -17.1%
Flat Product HR plate Carbon steel 135,330 94,139 -27.8% 3,976 150.5%
Stainless steel 8,989 -20.8% 135 -58.2%
Alloy steel 32,126 97.8% 373 -48.5%
HR sheet Carbon steel 681,563 -48.9% 12,676 4.0%
Carbon steel P&O 499,105 -21.7% 406 48.2%
Stainless steel 151,344 21.5% 18,000 33,233.3%
Alloy steel 710,666 4.7% 26 -78.2%
CR sheet Carbon steel 392,309 -15.9% 14,958 -34.8%
Stainless steel 67,910 -18.8% 31,895 10.8%
Alloy steel 96,807 20.4% 496 -48.8%
Coated Galv.sheet (HDG) 753,193 -22.5% 21,741 54.0%
Galv.sheet (EG) 73,174 -5.4% 13,084 91.2%
Tin plate 117,252 10.1% 65,528 -17.0% 1,242 32.8% 181,538 -1.6%
Tin free 94,139 -13.3% 9,940 -51.3% 56 -48.1% 104,023 -19.3%
Other coated steel 157,647 -1.5% 376,546 -1.9% 20,676 7.5% 513,517 -2.1%
Cold-formed section 910 1.8% 2,152 9.5%
Welded pipe 187,250 35.5% 68,994 -38.1%
-0.8%
-6.8%
5.5%
33.6%
266,100 -8.8%
1,283,500
3,295,070 -20.4%
890,172 1,399,849 -1.5%
147,079 938,621 -17.5%
H12014
Finished Steel Product Q1/2014 Q2/2014 % q-o-q %y-o-y
Production 1,657,322 1,690,529 2.0% 0.2%
Import 2,666,662 3,036,180 13.9% -11.0%
Export 224,007 367,603 64.1% -3.4%
Consumption 4,099,977 4,359,106 6.3% -7.6%
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Thailand steel demand is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2014
Source: Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand
Construction sector expand by 4% to 6%
Automotive sector contract by -4% to -2%
Machinery & Industrial sector expand by 0% to 5%
Appliance sector expand by 1% to 3%
Packaging sector expand by 0% to 1%
Thailand apparent steel use (‘000 Tonnes)
14.012 14.647
16.914 17.698 18,140
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F
4,744,584
8,865,0359,793,655
16,133,59214,538,239
24,998,627
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
Long product Flat product Total steel demand
Thailand Steel Demand is expected to reach 25M tons in 2031
ASEAN Steel Consumption in Y2014 is expected to expand ~ 4 – 5%
Source: SEAISI
20 Major Steel Companies (6/10 and 9/20 = China)
Source: World Steel Association
Source: World Steel Association
China is the largest Steel ProducerThe Production is more than 750 tons; 7 times of Japan
The Major Steel Producers Year 2013 (Million tons)
Source: World Steel Association
Trend of China’s Capacity, Production and Demand (Million tons)
The Excess Capacity increase 387% within 10 Years
China Excess Capacity is increasing dramatically;from 38M tons in 2003 to 185M tons in 2013
Source: World Steel Association
China Excess Capacity is larger than Steel DemandChina’s Export growth continuously
Trend of China’s Steel Export Y2000-2013 (Million tons)
Thailand’s Steel Production, Import and Steel Consumption
Source: Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand
The Contrast between the increasing Apparent Steel Use and the decreasing Domestic Production
Source: Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand
The Apparent Steel Use increase from 10.1M tons in 2009 to 17.7M tons in 2013 while the Import is also increase from 1M tons to 3M tons
Thailand’s Long Product Production, Import and Steel Use
ค ำจ ำกดัควำมรบัผดิข้อมูลในรำยงำน ส่ิงพิมพ์ และเวปไซด์ที่ไ ด้จัดท ำขึ้นมำจำกแหล่งข้อมูลที่เชื่อถือได้ อย่ำงไรก็ตำม สถำบนัเหล็กและเหล็กกล้ำแห่งประเทศไทยไม่รบัประกนัควำมถูกต้อง ครบถ้วนและพอเพยีงของข้อมูลเหล่ำน้ี ควำมเห็นหรอืกำรคำดกำรณ์ใดๆ ต่อเหตุกำรณ์ในอนำคตอำจแตกต่ำงจำกเหตุกำรณ์ทีจ่ะเกดิขึน้จรงิ นอกจำกน้ีสถำบนัเหล็กและเหล็กกล้ำแห่งประเทศไทยขอสงวนสิทธใินกำรเปลีย่นแปลงและแก้ไขข้อมลู รวมถงึควำมเห็นและกำรประมำณกำรณ์ใดๆ โดยไม่ต้องแจ้งล่วงหน้ำ
DisclaimerThe information in the above report, publication and website has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, Iron & Steel Institute of Thailand does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the information. Any opinions or forecasts regarding future events may differ from actual events or results. In addition, Iron & Steel Institute of Thailand reserves the right to make changes and corrections
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