Current and Future Environment - Cleveland State University · Aug -09 - Sep-10: $311M equity...
Transcript of Current and Future Environment - Cleveland State University · Aug -09 - Sep-10: $311M equity...
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October 3, 2012
Commercial Real Estate Overview:
Current and Future Environment
Presentation by:
David Oakes, CFA
Chief Financial Officer
DDR Corp.
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DDR considers portions of the information in this presentation to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, both as amended, with respect to the Company's expectation for future periods. Although the Company believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are based upon reasonable assumptions, it can give no assurance that its expectations will be achieved. For this purpose, any statements contained herein that are not historical fact may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. There are a number of important factors that could cause our results to differ materially from those indicated by such forward-looking statements, including, among other factors, local conditions such as oversupply of space or a reduction in demand for real estate in the area; competition from other available space; dependence on rental income from real property; the loss of, significant downsizing of or bankruptcy of a major tenant; constructing properties or expansions that produce a desired yield on investment; our ability to renew or enter into new leases at favorable rates; our ability to buy or sell assets on commercially reasonable terms; our ability to complete acquisitions or dispositions of assets under contract, including the properties in the EDT Retail Portfolio; our ability to secure equity or debt financing on commercially acceptable terms or at all; our ability to enter into definitive agreements with regard to our financing and joint venture arrangements or our failure to satisfy conditions to the completion of these arrangements and the success of our capital recycling strategy. For additional factors that could cause the results of the Company to differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, please refer to the Company's Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2011. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly revise these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances that arise after the date hereof.
Safe Harbor
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Real Estate Investment Trusts
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REIT Basics
• Formed in 1960 by Congress as a way for small investors to obtain an ownership in commercial real estate assets
• REITs do not pay corporate income taxes in exchange for distributing 90% of net taxable income to common shareholders
• Qualifications for REIT status: • Minimum of 100 shareholders • No more than 50% of shares can be held by five or fewer individuals • At least 75% of investments must be in real estate equity or debt • Derive 75% of income from real property or mortgage investments
• Types or REITs:
• Equity – Owns and operates primarily high quality income producing assets • Mortgage – Lends to owners; does not have direct ownership • Public vs. Private – Can be publicly held on NYSE (approx. 125), or be privately
held (approx. 25) • Public Non-Listed – Make SEC disclosures but do not trade on exchange
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REITs are trailing the market year to date, but
significantly outperform over a longer time horizon
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0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
REITs S&P500
Total Return: Year to Date
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
REITs S&P500
Total Return: Trailing 10 Years
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Equity REITs
• After over 100 REITs grew to a sector market cap of $400 billion in 2006, the highly-levered and capital-intensive sector lost over half of its value by YE2008, only to rebound back to its current market cap of over $420 billion today.
• Since the market crash in the fall of 2008, REITs have re-capitalized with $82 billion of equity and $73 billion of debt capital
• Since year-end 2008, REITs have returned 105%, outperforming the S&P 500 which has returned 74% on a total return basis
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$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
2009 2010 2011 2012
Cap
ital
Rai
sed
(b
illio
ns)
Capital Raised by REITs Equity Debt
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DDR Overview
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DDR Corp: General Overview
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Current Employees: # Shopping Centers: Total Square Feet: Top Tenants:
Assets Under Mgmt: Key Markets: Management:
700 (450 Cleveland) 459 117 million Walmart TJ Maxx Petsmart Bed Bath & Beyond Kohl’s
$15.5 billion Brazil Florida Georgia Puerto Rico Ohio Dan Hurwitz, CEO David Oakes, CFO Paul Freddo, Sr. EVP
DDR Corp. went public in 1993 and today has an equity market cap of $4.7 billion, an enterprise value of $9.2 billion, and trades under the ticker “DDR”
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A tale of two companies
85
100
115
130
145
160
175
Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12
Ind
ex
= 1
00
Relative Price Return from 2010 - Current: DDR vs REIT Index
DDR RMZ
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09
Ind
ex
= 1
00
Relative Price Return from 2006 - 2009: DDR vs REIT Index
DDR RMZ
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Significant progress and further improvement
March 31, 2009 June 30, 2012 Five Year Plan
Leased Rate 90.7% 93.7% 95.5%
Same Store NOI -2.2% 3.9% +2.0% to +2.5%
Prime Assets Income 70% 89% > 90%
Consolidated Debt $5.7 billion $4.1 billion < $4.0 billion
Next 2 years debt maturities
$3.3 billion $406 million < $800 million
Bond Credit Ratings • 1 investment grade • 3 negative
outlooks
• 2 investment grade (S&P, Moody’s)
• 0 negative outlooks
• 3 investment grade • 0 negative outlooks
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Our core business: Owning prime power centers
ICSC Definition
An open air shopping center dominated by several large anchors, including discount department stores, off-price stores, warehouse clubs, or "category killers," i.e., stores that offer tremendous selection in a particular merchandise category at value prices. The center typically consists of several anchors and only a minimum amount of small specialty tenants. General size range is greater than 200,000 square feet.
DDR Definition
Our prime power center portfolio is comprised of market dominant shopping centers with high quality tenants located in attractive markets with strong demographic profiles
Location characteristics:
• High barrier-to-entry regional trade areas • Strong household income growth profiles and population density • Trade area average population nearly 450,000 people • Trade area average household income greater than $80,000
Asset characteristics:
• Market dominant locations • Strong merchandise mix to enhance consumer selection • Healthy tenant credit profiles with limited cash flow risk • Consistent NOI growth potential
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Considerable improvement in portfolio quality enhances
growth opportunities
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• Since 2010, DDR disposed of 126 non-prime assets, totaling $1.4 billion
• In 2011 and 2012 YTD, DDR acquired, in whole or in part, 57 shopping centers, totaling $2.1 billion
2008 Portfolio
Non-Prime Dispositions
Prime Acquisitions
Current Prime Portfolio
Number of Assets 621 126 46 290
Total Square Feet (millions) 119 11 18 94
Average Size 192,000 sf 104,000 sf 384,000 sf 324,000 sf
Leased Rate 92.7% 69.0% 93.4% 95.2%
Avg. Rent Per SF $12.60 $9.40 $13.69 $14.51
Wtd. Population (trade area) 269,000 232,000 520,000 449,000
Wtd. Avg. HH Income (trade area) $73,000 $68,000 $84,000 $80,000
Organic growth opportunity
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Power center portfolios result in fewer local tenants
and higher credit quality of cash flows
12%
60%
28%
Local Tenant
National / Regional > 10,000sf
National / Regional < 10,000sf
DDR % of Annual Base Rent
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Consolidated debt reduction
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$5.9
$5.2
$4.7 $4.6
$4.4 $4.3 $4.2 $4.2 $4.2
$4.1 $4.1 $4.1
$4.0
$4.5
$5.0
$5.5
$6.0
$6.5
4Q08 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12
(bil
lion
s)
Total Consolidated Debt Outstanding
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Mar-09:
Moody’s
downgrades
DDR to Baa3
(negative
outlook)
Apr-09:
S&P
downgrades
DDR to BB
(negative
outlook)
May-09:
$113M of
equity in
Otto
transaction
Nov-09:
$400M
TALF
CMBS
Aug-09 -
Sep-10:
$311M equity
dribble
Mar-10:
$300M of
7-year,
7.5%
senior
unsecured
notes
Mar-09:
Fitch
downgrades
DDR to BBB-
(negative
outlook)
May-09:
Fitch
downgrades
DDR to BB
(negative
outlook)
Sep-09:
$300M of
7-year,
9.625%
senior
unsecured
notes
Dec-09:
Moody’s
removes
DDR from
the negative
watch list
Feb-10:
$350M of
equity in
follow on
offering
May-10:
Fitch
upgrades
DDR’s
outlook to
stable
Aug-10:
$300M in 10-
year, 7.875%
senior
unsecured
notes
Oct-10:
Refinanced
revolver and
paid down
term loan by
$200M
Nov-10:
$350M
1.75%
convertible
debt
Feb-11:
S&P
upgrades
DDR’s
outlook to
stable and
bond rating to
BB+
Mar-11:
$190M
common equity
and $300M of
7-year, 4.75%
senior
unsecured
notes
Apr-11:
Moody’s
affirms IG
rating and
upgrades
DDR’s
outlook to
stable
May-11:
Fitch
upgrades
DDR’s
outlook to
positive
Jun-11:
Refinanced
$550M term
loan and
revolver(s) at
L+170bp and
L+165bp,
respectively
Jan-12:
$250M
common
equity to fund
EDT
investment &
lower
leverage;
Fitch
upgrades
rating to BB+
Jan-12:
$250M
unsecured
term loan -
$200M 7
year, 3.64%;
$50M 5-year,
LIBOR + 170
bps; $103M
7-year,
3.40%
mortgage
loan
Feb-12:
S&P
upgrades
DDR’s
outlook to
positive
April-12 –
Aug-12:
Issued
$140M of
common
stock to
fund entire
acquisition
of 3 prime
assets out
of joint
venture
Jun-12:
$300M
unsecured
notes – 10
year, 4.625%
to redeem
$223M,
5.375% notes
due Oct 2012
Jul-12:
$200M,
6.5%
preferred
stock to
redeem
$175M,
7.5%
preferred
stock
Rating agency momentum
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Sep-12
S&P
upgrades
DDR to BB+
(stable
outlook) and
also
upgrades
bond rating
to investment
grade (BBB-)
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Industry Fundamentals
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Retail sales continue to shift to our largest tenants…
Source: Retail Trade Survey from the U.S. Census Bureau 17
0%
10%
20%
30%
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50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
% of General Merchandise Sales
Discount Dept. Stores, Warehouse Clubs and Supercenters
Conventional and National Chain Dept. Stores
Sears, JC Penney, Macy’s, Dillard’s, Nordstrom, Bloomingdales, Neiman Marcus, Saks Fifth Avenue, Bon Ton
Walmart / Sam’s Club, Kohl’s, Target, BJ’s, Costco
(% o
f G
en
era
l Me
rch
and
ise
Sal
es)
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…Including various retailers who continue to take grocery share
Source: UBS US Food Retail Team, Census Bureau
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Traditional grocers such as Ahold, Delhaize, Kroger, Publix, SUPERVALU, Safeway, Weis Markets
Discounters, Warehouse Clubs, Dollar Stores and Specialty Grocers
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
% of Total Grocery Sales
Traditional grocery Non-traditional grocery
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Leveling the playing field between inline retail and bricks
and mortar
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• Currently, bricks and mortar retailers of all sizes collect and remit the appropriate sales tax, while operating at a competitive disadvantage to online retailers who are not required to collect such taxes
• In Ohio, this means a difference of 5.5%, more than enough to persuade consumers to buy online, and creating an estimated $200 million in annual tax revenue that is not collected in Ohio alone
• Ohio is home to six of the top 50 shopping center owners,
second only to New York
• Ohio is home to seven of the top 100 retailers, third only to Texas and California
• Sales tax parity between bricks and mortar retail and Amazon is expected to take hold in seven US states between now and the end of 2016 with the Main Street Equity Act expected to become law in either the lame duck session of Congress in 2012 or the beginning of 2013.
• Our top tenants’ margins are substantially higher than Amazon.
Source: Company reports
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
WMT PETM TJX KSS BBBY AVG. AMZ
Gross Margin Net Operating Margin
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Credit quality of cash flows matters in all sectors
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Company S&P Rating Company S&P Rating
1. Walmart / Sam’s Club AA 11. Ross Stores BBB+
2. TJX Companies A 12. Gap / Old Navy BB+
3. PetSmart BB+ 13. OfficeMax B-
4. Bed Bath & Beyond BBB+ 14. Tops Markets BBB
5. Kohl’s BBB+ 15. Kroger BBB
6. Dick’s Sporting Goods NR 16. Lowe’s A-
7. Best Buy BB+ 17. JoAnn Fabric B
8. Michael’s B 18. Ascena BB-
9. Publix NR 19. Cinemark BB-
10. AMC Theaters B 20. Regal Cinemas B+
Target A+
Average BBB
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Demand for space remains strong
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2012 2013 2012 2013
Expected Expected 2013 Expected Expected 2013
Store Store Remaining Store Store Remaining
Tenant Openings Openings OTB Tenant Openings Openings OTB
Dollar General 625 625 400 Staples 20 50 5
Dollar Tree 425 425 170 Michaels 45 50 25
Walmart 240 250 30 Bed Bath & Beyond 45 45 15
TJX Companies 125 125 50 Dick's Sporting Goods 40 40 20
ULTA 80 125 50 Hobby Lobby 31 40 15
Chipotle 125 125 75 Publix 35 40 10
Gymboree 100 100 75 Kroger 35 35 10
Ross Stores 80 80 25 Whole Foods 25 30 5
Five Below 52 75 35 DSW 40 30 10
Jo-Ann 62 65 10 Costco 15 25 5
Petco 60 60 35 Lowe's 20 25 8
Charming Charlie 60 60 35 Nordstrom Rack 18 24 15
Kirkland’s 45 55 40 Target 25 20 10
PetSmart 45 50 10 Kohl's 20 20 5
These retailers alone demand more than 145 million square feet in 2012 and 2013
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…and continue to improve with recent transactions and
investments announced by power center tenants
• Bed Bath & Beyond announced the $550 million acquisition of Cost Plus World Market • DDR has 11 Cost Plus stores with $2 million pro rata ABR • Bed Bath & Beyond becomes DDR’s fourth largest tenant by ABR • Cost Plus is removed from DDR’s watch list and is replaced with an investment grade credit
tenant (BBB+)
• Chinese conglomerate Dalian Wanda Group acquired AMC Entertainment for $2.6 billion
• Charming Shoppes reached an agreement to be acquired by Ascena Retail Group for $890 million
• Thomas H. Lee Partners acquired a majority stake in Party City for $2.7 billion
• Wolverine World Wide partnered with private equity firms Golden Gate Capital and Blum Capital Partners to purchase Collective Brands for nearly $2 billion
• Tilly’s and Five Below both successfully completed IPO’s, raising a combined $330 million
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New supply remains at historical lows
Source: Reis, Goldman Sachs Investment Research
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0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Co
mp
leti
on
s as
a P
erc
ent
of
Sto
ck Apts Office Strip Center Industrial
• Strip center supply is expected to add only 30bp to total stock in 2012, the third consecutive year where new supply is under 50bp, near the lowest level historically, and exceptionally low relative to other property types such as apartments.
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Retailer downsizing is another opportunity
Proactive asset management at a prime center in Atlanta resulted in an annual base rent increase of approximately 20%, or $60,000, with minimal capex and downtime
Pre-Downsize
142’
176’
142’
176’ 145’
31’
55’ 87’
Old Navy Old Navy Five Below Combined
SF (000s) 25 17 8 25
Rent PSF $12.75 $14.00 $17.00 $15.20
ABR (000s) $320 $240 $140 $380
Post-Downsize
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Local Impact
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DDR’s owns seven prime assets totaling over 2.1 million square
feet in the Cleveland-Akron metro area
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Fundamental trends are positive on both the national and local
fronts
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-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Annual Change in Retail Base Rent Per SF
National Cleveland
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
New Supply as a % of Existing Retail SF
National Cleveland
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Retail Occupancy
National Cleveland
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The acquisition and evolution of Macedonia Commons
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- DDR originally developed Macedonia Commons in 1994
- In January 2011, DDR acquired its partners’ 50% interest for $20 million in Macedonia Commons - The center is a 650,000sf Prime power center located in Macedonia just off of I-271
- Given its proximity to both Cleveland and Akron and its presence near the eastern Cleveland
suburbs, the demographic profile of the trade area is strong, boasting household incomes of $89,000 and population of 225,000
- Five years ago, the center consisted of a Walmart without a grocery component, a Tops that restricted grocery competitors within the center, and weak credit Fashion Bug occupying 13,000sf
- Through active asset management, today the center consists of a renovated Walmart Supercenter with a grocery component, Hobby Lobby sub-leasing from Tops with a Royal Ahold credit guarantee, and rapidly growing concept Five Below in the Fashion Bug location
- Because of the quality of the center, significant interest remains from retailers like Bed Bath & Beyond, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Ulta, and TJ Maxx to fill any vacancies that arise in the center
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Macedonia Commons
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MACEDONIA
I - 271
RA
MP
R-4
MP
1-
RR
AG
TI
N
E
SI
X
NORTHFIELD R
D ( S
R 8 )
AU
RO
RA
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D
(S
R
82)
NO PARKING
CONCRETEPAD
LOADING
CONCRETE
PAD
60'NO PARKING
60'
10' CUSTOMER PICKUP LANE
ENTRY
EXIT
41'X70' CANOPY
EXIT
CC
DETENTION
1.66 AC
I-271 EXIT RAMP
SUMMER RD
CC
CC
CC
CC
CC
CC
CC
CC
34'
AREACOMMON
24
2
415
10
11
16
36
18
19
21
22
13
12
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25
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9
13
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19
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27
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6
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13
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16
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426
110
634
84
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44
32
62
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46
77
CC
CC
CC
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CC
26 26
191816
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24 2421 21
24 24
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2425 25
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COMMONS BLVD
25.6
'
ENLARGED VIEW
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The US is in the midst of a major manufacturing
renaissance with Ohio as a direct beneficiary
30
Advantages of US Manufacturing Renaissance
1. Restrained labor costs 2. Emerging market wage growth 3. Abundant energy 4. Low dollar 5. Digitization 6. Labor market stability
Consequences of US Manufacturing Renaissance
7. Rule of Law 8. Econ / Acctg Transparency 9. Demographics 10. Deep & liquid capital markets 11. Well-developed infrastructure 12. Better inventory control
1. Stronger capex and exports 2. Restrained imports 3. Increased FDI 4. Stronger US manufacturing
“In 2000, average wages in China were 50 cents an hour, now they’re $3.00” – Financial Times “US Steel is investing $100 million in a new plant in Ohio to make tubes for oil and gas wells” – Financial Times “France’ Vallourec is building a $650 million plant in Ohio to make steel tubes for oil and gas wells” – Financial Times “Jobs with starting pay of $60k to $70k are coming to Ohio with drilling in the Marcellus shale” – Zanesville Times Ohio’s manufacturing sector has grown 6.5% from 2010 to 2012, benefitting budgets, housing, retail, and banking - ISI
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US manufacturing renaissance will drive growth in
employment and population in the Midwest
• US manufacturing is benefitting from long-term competitive advantages that include declining labor costs, big emerging markets wage increases (i.e., annual wage growth in China is growing at 15%), low dollar, and low natural gas prices that promote jobs in manufacturing states, and retailers with exposure to those states.
Source: Institute for Supply Management, BLS
31
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jul-
97
Jun
-98
May
-99
Ap
r-0
0
Mar
-01
Feb
-02
Jan
-03
De
c-0
3
No
v-0
4
Oct
-05
Sep
-06
Au
g-0
7
Jul-
08
Jun
-09
May
-10
Ap
r-1
1
Mar
-12
ISM Manufacturing Index (Employment)
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (Employment)
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2Q
88
2Q
90
2Q
92
2Q
94
2Q
96
2Q
98
2Q
00
2Q
02
2Q
04
2Q
06
2Q
08
2Q
10
2Q
12
% Change YOY
Manufacturing Sector Employment Continues to Expand U.S. Manufacturing Unit Labor Costs Continue to Decline
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…which will drive retail sales growth, particularly in DDR
markets
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Source: ISI; Manufacturing states, as defined by ISI, consist of Washington, Utah, North Dakota, Kansas, Texas, Louisiana, Montana, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Ohio, Michigan, Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois
Retailer Store Exposure to Manufacturing States
Pe
rce
nt
of
tota
l sto
res