Current and Future Environment - Cleveland State University · Aug -09 - Sep-10: $311M equity...

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October 3, 2012 Commercial Real Estate Overview: Current and Future Environment Presentation by: David Oakes, CFA Chief Financial Officer DDR Corp.

Transcript of Current and Future Environment - Cleveland State University · Aug -09 - Sep-10: $311M equity...

Page 1: Current and Future Environment - Cleveland State University · Aug -09 - Sep-10: $311M equity dribble convertible -10: $300M of 7-year, 7.5% senior unsecured notes Mar -09: Oct Fitch

October 3, 2012

Commercial Real Estate Overview:

Current and Future Environment

Presentation by:

David Oakes, CFA

Chief Financial Officer

DDR Corp.

Page 2: Current and Future Environment - Cleveland State University · Aug -09 - Sep-10: $311M equity dribble convertible -10: $300M of 7-year, 7.5% senior unsecured notes Mar -09: Oct Fitch

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DDR considers portions of the information in this presentation to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, both as amended, with respect to the Company's expectation for future periods. Although the Company believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are based upon reasonable assumptions, it can give no assurance that its expectations will be achieved. For this purpose, any statements contained herein that are not historical fact may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. There are a number of important factors that could cause our results to differ materially from those indicated by such forward-looking statements, including, among other factors, local conditions such as oversupply of space or a reduction in demand for real estate in the area; competition from other available space; dependence on rental income from real property; the loss of, significant downsizing of or bankruptcy of a major tenant; constructing properties or expansions that produce a desired yield on investment; our ability to renew or enter into new leases at favorable rates; our ability to buy or sell assets on commercially reasonable terms; our ability to complete acquisitions or dispositions of assets under contract, including the properties in the EDT Retail Portfolio; our ability to secure equity or debt financing on commercially acceptable terms or at all; our ability to enter into definitive agreements with regard to our financing and joint venture arrangements or our failure to satisfy conditions to the completion of these arrangements and the success of our capital recycling strategy. For additional factors that could cause the results of the Company to differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, please refer to the Company's Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2011. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly revise these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances that arise after the date hereof.

Safe Harbor

Page 3: Current and Future Environment - Cleveland State University · Aug -09 - Sep-10: $311M equity dribble convertible -10: $300M of 7-year, 7.5% senior unsecured notes Mar -09: Oct Fitch

Real Estate Investment Trusts

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Page 4: Current and Future Environment - Cleveland State University · Aug -09 - Sep-10: $311M equity dribble convertible -10: $300M of 7-year, 7.5% senior unsecured notes Mar -09: Oct Fitch

REIT Basics

• Formed in 1960 by Congress as a way for small investors to obtain an ownership in commercial real estate assets

• REITs do not pay corporate income taxes in exchange for distributing 90% of net taxable income to common shareholders

• Qualifications for REIT status: • Minimum of 100 shareholders • No more than 50% of shares can be held by five or fewer individuals • At least 75% of investments must be in real estate equity or debt • Derive 75% of income from real property or mortgage investments

• Types or REITs:

• Equity – Owns and operates primarily high quality income producing assets • Mortgage – Lends to owners; does not have direct ownership • Public vs. Private – Can be publicly held on NYSE (approx. 125), or be privately

held (approx. 25) • Public Non-Listed – Make SEC disclosures but do not trade on exchange

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Page 5: Current and Future Environment - Cleveland State University · Aug -09 - Sep-10: $311M equity dribble convertible -10: $300M of 7-year, 7.5% senior unsecured notes Mar -09: Oct Fitch

REITs are trailing the market year to date, but

significantly outperform over a longer time horizon

5

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

REITs S&P500

Total Return: Year to Date

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

REITs S&P500

Total Return: Trailing 10 Years

Page 6: Current and Future Environment - Cleveland State University · Aug -09 - Sep-10: $311M equity dribble convertible -10: $300M of 7-year, 7.5% senior unsecured notes Mar -09: Oct Fitch

Equity REITs

• After over 100 REITs grew to a sector market cap of $400 billion in 2006, the highly-levered and capital-intensive sector lost over half of its value by YE2008, only to rebound back to its current market cap of over $420 billion today.

• Since the market crash in the fall of 2008, REITs have re-capitalized with $82 billion of equity and $73 billion of debt capital

• Since year-end 2008, REITs have returned 105%, outperforming the S&P 500 which has returned 74% on a total return basis

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$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

2009 2010 2011 2012

Cap

ital

Rai

sed

(b

illio

ns)

Capital Raised by REITs Equity Debt

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DDR Overview

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Page 8: Current and Future Environment - Cleveland State University · Aug -09 - Sep-10: $311M equity dribble convertible -10: $300M of 7-year, 7.5% senior unsecured notes Mar -09: Oct Fitch

DDR Corp: General Overview

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Current Employees: # Shopping Centers: Total Square Feet: Top Tenants:

Assets Under Mgmt: Key Markets: Management:

700 (450 Cleveland) 459 117 million Walmart TJ Maxx Petsmart Bed Bath & Beyond Kohl’s

$15.5 billion Brazil Florida Georgia Puerto Rico Ohio Dan Hurwitz, CEO David Oakes, CFO Paul Freddo, Sr. EVP

DDR Corp. went public in 1993 and today has an equity market cap of $4.7 billion, an enterprise value of $9.2 billion, and trades under the ticker “DDR”

Page 9: Current and Future Environment - Cleveland State University · Aug -09 - Sep-10: $311M equity dribble convertible -10: $300M of 7-year, 7.5% senior unsecured notes Mar -09: Oct Fitch

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A tale of two companies

85

100

115

130

145

160

175

Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12

Ind

ex

= 1

00

Relative Price Return from 2010 - Current: DDR vs REIT Index

DDR RMZ

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09

Ind

ex

= 1

00

Relative Price Return from 2006 - 2009: DDR vs REIT Index

DDR RMZ

Page 10: Current and Future Environment - Cleveland State University · Aug -09 - Sep-10: $311M equity dribble convertible -10: $300M of 7-year, 7.5% senior unsecured notes Mar -09: Oct Fitch

Significant progress and further improvement

March 31, 2009 June 30, 2012 Five Year Plan

Leased Rate 90.7% 93.7% 95.5%

Same Store NOI -2.2% 3.9% +2.0% to +2.5%

Prime Assets Income 70% 89% > 90%

Consolidated Debt $5.7 billion $4.1 billion < $4.0 billion

Next 2 years debt maturities

$3.3 billion $406 million < $800 million

Bond Credit Ratings • 1 investment grade • 3 negative

outlooks

• 2 investment grade (S&P, Moody’s)

• 0 negative outlooks

• 3 investment grade • 0 negative outlooks

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Page 11: Current and Future Environment - Cleveland State University · Aug -09 - Sep-10: $311M equity dribble convertible -10: $300M of 7-year, 7.5% senior unsecured notes Mar -09: Oct Fitch

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Our core business: Owning prime power centers

ICSC Definition

An open air shopping center dominated by several large anchors, including discount department stores, off-price stores, warehouse clubs, or "category killers," i.e., stores that offer tremendous selection in a particular merchandise category at value prices. The center typically consists of several anchors and only a minimum amount of small specialty tenants. General size range is greater than 200,000 square feet.

DDR Definition

Our prime power center portfolio is comprised of market dominant shopping centers with high quality tenants located in attractive markets with strong demographic profiles

Location characteristics:

• High barrier-to-entry regional trade areas • Strong household income growth profiles and population density • Trade area average population nearly 450,000 people • Trade area average household income greater than $80,000

Asset characteristics:

• Market dominant locations • Strong merchandise mix to enhance consumer selection • Healthy tenant credit profiles with limited cash flow risk • Consistent NOI growth potential

Page 12: Current and Future Environment - Cleveland State University · Aug -09 - Sep-10: $311M equity dribble convertible -10: $300M of 7-year, 7.5% senior unsecured notes Mar -09: Oct Fitch

Considerable improvement in portfolio quality enhances

growth opportunities

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• Since 2010, DDR disposed of 126 non-prime assets, totaling $1.4 billion

• In 2011 and 2012 YTD, DDR acquired, in whole or in part, 57 shopping centers, totaling $2.1 billion

2008 Portfolio

Non-Prime Dispositions

Prime Acquisitions

Current Prime Portfolio

Number of Assets 621 126 46 290

Total Square Feet (millions) 119 11 18 94

Average Size 192,000 sf 104,000 sf 384,000 sf 324,000 sf

Leased Rate 92.7% 69.0% 93.4% 95.2%

Avg. Rent Per SF $12.60 $9.40 $13.69 $14.51

Wtd. Population (trade area) 269,000 232,000 520,000 449,000

Wtd. Avg. HH Income (trade area) $73,000 $68,000 $84,000 $80,000

Organic growth opportunity

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Power center portfolios result in fewer local tenants

and higher credit quality of cash flows

12%

60%

28%

Local Tenant

National / Regional > 10,000sf

National / Regional < 10,000sf

DDR % of Annual Base Rent

Page 14: Current and Future Environment - Cleveland State University · Aug -09 - Sep-10: $311M equity dribble convertible -10: $300M of 7-year, 7.5% senior unsecured notes Mar -09: Oct Fitch

Consolidated debt reduction

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$5.9

$5.2

$4.7 $4.6

$4.4 $4.3 $4.2 $4.2 $4.2

$4.1 $4.1 $4.1

$4.0

$4.5

$5.0

$5.5

$6.0

$6.5

4Q08 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

(bil

lion

s)

Total Consolidated Debt Outstanding

Page 15: Current and Future Environment - Cleveland State University · Aug -09 - Sep-10: $311M equity dribble convertible -10: $300M of 7-year, 7.5% senior unsecured notes Mar -09: Oct Fitch

Mar-09:

Moody’s

downgrades

DDR to Baa3

(negative

outlook)

Apr-09:

S&P

downgrades

DDR to BB

(negative

outlook)

May-09:

$113M of

equity in

Otto

transaction

Nov-09:

$400M

TALF

CMBS

Aug-09 -

Sep-10:

$311M equity

dribble

Mar-10:

$300M of

7-year,

7.5%

senior

unsecured

notes

Mar-09:

Fitch

downgrades

DDR to BBB-

(negative

outlook)

May-09:

Fitch

downgrades

DDR to BB

(negative

outlook)

Sep-09:

$300M of

7-year,

9.625%

senior

unsecured

notes

Dec-09:

Moody’s

removes

DDR from

the negative

watch list

Feb-10:

$350M of

equity in

follow on

offering

May-10:

Fitch

upgrades

DDR’s

outlook to

stable

Aug-10:

$300M in 10-

year, 7.875%

senior

unsecured

notes

Oct-10:

Refinanced

revolver and

paid down

term loan by

$200M

Nov-10:

$350M

1.75%

convertible

debt

Feb-11:

S&P

upgrades

DDR’s

outlook to

stable and

bond rating to

BB+

Mar-11:

$190M

common equity

and $300M of

7-year, 4.75%

senior

unsecured

notes

Apr-11:

Moody’s

affirms IG

rating and

upgrades

DDR’s

outlook to

stable

May-11:

Fitch

upgrades

DDR’s

outlook to

positive

Jun-11:

Refinanced

$550M term

loan and

revolver(s) at

L+170bp and

L+165bp,

respectively

Jan-12:

$250M

common

equity to fund

EDT

investment &

lower

leverage;

Fitch

upgrades

rating to BB+

Jan-12:

$250M

unsecured

term loan -

$200M 7

year, 3.64%;

$50M 5-year,

LIBOR + 170

bps; $103M

7-year,

3.40%

mortgage

loan

Feb-12:

S&P

upgrades

DDR’s

outlook to

positive

April-12 –

Aug-12:

Issued

$140M of

common

stock to

fund entire

acquisition

of 3 prime

assets out

of joint

venture

Jun-12:

$300M

unsecured

notes – 10

year, 4.625%

to redeem

$223M,

5.375% notes

due Oct 2012

Jul-12:

$200M,

6.5%

preferred

stock to

redeem

$175M,

7.5%

preferred

stock

Rating agency momentum

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Sep-12

S&P

upgrades

DDR to BB+

(stable

outlook) and

also

upgrades

bond rating

to investment

grade (BBB-)

Page 16: Current and Future Environment - Cleveland State University · Aug -09 - Sep-10: $311M equity dribble convertible -10: $300M of 7-year, 7.5% senior unsecured notes Mar -09: Oct Fitch

Industry Fundamentals

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Page 17: Current and Future Environment - Cleveland State University · Aug -09 - Sep-10: $311M equity dribble convertible -10: $300M of 7-year, 7.5% senior unsecured notes Mar -09: Oct Fitch

Retail sales continue to shift to our largest tenants…

Source: Retail Trade Survey from the U.S. Census Bureau 17

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

% of General Merchandise Sales

Discount Dept. Stores, Warehouse Clubs and Supercenters

Conventional and National Chain Dept. Stores

Sears, JC Penney, Macy’s, Dillard’s, Nordstrom, Bloomingdales, Neiman Marcus, Saks Fifth Avenue, Bon Ton

Walmart / Sam’s Club, Kohl’s, Target, BJ’s, Costco

(% o

f G

en

era

l Me

rch

and

ise

Sal

es)

Page 18: Current and Future Environment - Cleveland State University · Aug -09 - Sep-10: $311M equity dribble convertible -10: $300M of 7-year, 7.5% senior unsecured notes Mar -09: Oct Fitch

…Including various retailers who continue to take grocery share

Source: UBS US Food Retail Team, Census Bureau

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Traditional grocers such as Ahold, Delhaize, Kroger, Publix, SUPERVALU, Safeway, Weis Markets

Discounters, Warehouse Clubs, Dollar Stores and Specialty Grocers

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

% of Total Grocery Sales

Traditional grocery Non-traditional grocery

Page 19: Current and Future Environment - Cleveland State University · Aug -09 - Sep-10: $311M equity dribble convertible -10: $300M of 7-year, 7.5% senior unsecured notes Mar -09: Oct Fitch

Leveling the playing field between inline retail and bricks

and mortar

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• Currently, bricks and mortar retailers of all sizes collect and remit the appropriate sales tax, while operating at a competitive disadvantage to online retailers who are not required to collect such taxes

• In Ohio, this means a difference of 5.5%, more than enough to persuade consumers to buy online, and creating an estimated $200 million in annual tax revenue that is not collected in Ohio alone

• Ohio is home to six of the top 50 shopping center owners,

second only to New York

• Ohio is home to seven of the top 100 retailers, third only to Texas and California

• Sales tax parity between bricks and mortar retail and Amazon is expected to take hold in seven US states between now and the end of 2016 with the Main Street Equity Act expected to become law in either the lame duck session of Congress in 2012 or the beginning of 2013.

• Our top tenants’ margins are substantially higher than Amazon.

Source: Company reports

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

WMT PETM TJX KSS BBBY AVG. AMZ

Gross Margin Net Operating Margin

Page 20: Current and Future Environment - Cleveland State University · Aug -09 - Sep-10: $311M equity dribble convertible -10: $300M of 7-year, 7.5% senior unsecured notes Mar -09: Oct Fitch

Credit quality of cash flows matters in all sectors

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Company S&P Rating Company S&P Rating

1. Walmart / Sam’s Club AA 11. Ross Stores BBB+

2. TJX Companies A 12. Gap / Old Navy BB+

3. PetSmart BB+ 13. OfficeMax B-

4. Bed Bath & Beyond BBB+ 14. Tops Markets BBB

5. Kohl’s BBB+ 15. Kroger BBB

6. Dick’s Sporting Goods NR 16. Lowe’s A-

7. Best Buy BB+ 17. JoAnn Fabric B

8. Michael’s B 18. Ascena BB-

9. Publix NR 19. Cinemark BB-

10. AMC Theaters B 20. Regal Cinemas B+

Target A+

Average BBB

Page 21: Current and Future Environment - Cleveland State University · Aug -09 - Sep-10: $311M equity dribble convertible -10: $300M of 7-year, 7.5% senior unsecured notes Mar -09: Oct Fitch

Demand for space remains strong

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2012 2013 2012 2013

Expected Expected 2013 Expected Expected 2013

Store Store Remaining Store Store Remaining

Tenant Openings Openings OTB Tenant Openings Openings OTB

Dollar General 625 625 400 Staples 20 50 5

Dollar Tree 425 425 170 Michaels 45 50 25

Walmart 240 250 30 Bed Bath & Beyond 45 45 15

TJX Companies 125 125 50 Dick's Sporting Goods 40 40 20

ULTA 80 125 50 Hobby Lobby 31 40 15

Chipotle 125 125 75 Publix 35 40 10

Gymboree 100 100 75 Kroger 35 35 10

Ross Stores 80 80 25 Whole Foods 25 30 5

Five Below 52 75 35 DSW 40 30 10

Jo-Ann 62 65 10 Costco 15 25 5

Petco 60 60 35 Lowe's 20 25 8

Charming Charlie 60 60 35 Nordstrom Rack 18 24 15

Kirkland’s 45 55 40 Target 25 20 10

PetSmart 45 50 10 Kohl's 20 20 5

These retailers alone demand more than 145 million square feet in 2012 and 2013

Page 22: Current and Future Environment - Cleveland State University · Aug -09 - Sep-10: $311M equity dribble convertible -10: $300M of 7-year, 7.5% senior unsecured notes Mar -09: Oct Fitch

…and continue to improve with recent transactions and

investments announced by power center tenants

• Bed Bath & Beyond announced the $550 million acquisition of Cost Plus World Market • DDR has 11 Cost Plus stores with $2 million pro rata ABR • Bed Bath & Beyond becomes DDR’s fourth largest tenant by ABR • Cost Plus is removed from DDR’s watch list and is replaced with an investment grade credit

tenant (BBB+)

• Chinese conglomerate Dalian Wanda Group acquired AMC Entertainment for $2.6 billion

• Charming Shoppes reached an agreement to be acquired by Ascena Retail Group for $890 million

• Thomas H. Lee Partners acquired a majority stake in Party City for $2.7 billion

• Wolverine World Wide partnered with private equity firms Golden Gate Capital and Blum Capital Partners to purchase Collective Brands for nearly $2 billion

• Tilly’s and Five Below both successfully completed IPO’s, raising a combined $330 million

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Page 23: Current and Future Environment - Cleveland State University · Aug -09 - Sep-10: $311M equity dribble convertible -10: $300M of 7-year, 7.5% senior unsecured notes Mar -09: Oct Fitch

New supply remains at historical lows

Source: Reis, Goldman Sachs Investment Research

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0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Co

mp

leti

on

s as

a P

erc

ent

of

Sto

ck Apts Office Strip Center Industrial

• Strip center supply is expected to add only 30bp to total stock in 2012, the third consecutive year where new supply is under 50bp, near the lowest level historically, and exceptionally low relative to other property types such as apartments.

Page 24: Current and Future Environment - Cleveland State University · Aug -09 - Sep-10: $311M equity dribble convertible -10: $300M of 7-year, 7.5% senior unsecured notes Mar -09: Oct Fitch

Retailer downsizing is another opportunity

Proactive asset management at a prime center in Atlanta resulted in an annual base rent increase of approximately 20%, or $60,000, with minimal capex and downtime

Pre-Downsize

142’

176’

142’

176’ 145’

31’

55’ 87’

Old Navy Old Navy Five Below Combined

SF (000s) 25 17 8 25

Rent PSF $12.75 $14.00 $17.00 $15.20

ABR (000s) $320 $240 $140 $380

Post-Downsize

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Page 25: Current and Future Environment - Cleveland State University · Aug -09 - Sep-10: $311M equity dribble convertible -10: $300M of 7-year, 7.5% senior unsecured notes Mar -09: Oct Fitch

Local Impact

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Page 26: Current and Future Environment - Cleveland State University · Aug -09 - Sep-10: $311M equity dribble convertible -10: $300M of 7-year, 7.5% senior unsecured notes Mar -09: Oct Fitch

DDR’s owns seven prime assets totaling over 2.1 million square

feet in the Cleveland-Akron metro area

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Page 27: Current and Future Environment - Cleveland State University · Aug -09 - Sep-10: $311M equity dribble convertible -10: $300M of 7-year, 7.5% senior unsecured notes Mar -09: Oct Fitch

Fundamental trends are positive on both the national and local

fronts

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-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Annual Change in Retail Base Rent Per SF

National Cleveland

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

New Supply as a % of Existing Retail SF

National Cleveland

84%

86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Retail Occupancy

National Cleveland

Page 28: Current and Future Environment - Cleveland State University · Aug -09 - Sep-10: $311M equity dribble convertible -10: $300M of 7-year, 7.5% senior unsecured notes Mar -09: Oct Fitch

The acquisition and evolution of Macedonia Commons

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- DDR originally developed Macedonia Commons in 1994

- In January 2011, DDR acquired its partners’ 50% interest for $20 million in Macedonia Commons - The center is a 650,000sf Prime power center located in Macedonia just off of I-271

- Given its proximity to both Cleveland and Akron and its presence near the eastern Cleveland

suburbs, the demographic profile of the trade area is strong, boasting household incomes of $89,000 and population of 225,000

- Five years ago, the center consisted of a Walmart without a grocery component, a Tops that restricted grocery competitors within the center, and weak credit Fashion Bug occupying 13,000sf

- Through active asset management, today the center consists of a renovated Walmart Supercenter with a grocery component, Hobby Lobby sub-leasing from Tops with a Royal Ahold credit guarantee, and rapidly growing concept Five Below in the Fashion Bug location

- Because of the quality of the center, significant interest remains from retailers like Bed Bath & Beyond, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Ulta, and TJ Maxx to fill any vacancies that arise in the center

Page 29: Current and Future Environment - Cleveland State University · Aug -09 - Sep-10: $311M equity dribble convertible -10: $300M of 7-year, 7.5% senior unsecured notes Mar -09: Oct Fitch

Macedonia Commons

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60'NO PARKING

60'

10' CUSTOMER PICKUP LANE

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EXIT

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CC

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ENLARGED VIEW

Page 30: Current and Future Environment - Cleveland State University · Aug -09 - Sep-10: $311M equity dribble convertible -10: $300M of 7-year, 7.5% senior unsecured notes Mar -09: Oct Fitch

The US is in the midst of a major manufacturing

renaissance with Ohio as a direct beneficiary

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Advantages of US Manufacturing Renaissance

1. Restrained labor costs 2. Emerging market wage growth 3. Abundant energy 4. Low dollar 5. Digitization 6. Labor market stability

Consequences of US Manufacturing Renaissance

7. Rule of Law 8. Econ / Acctg Transparency 9. Demographics 10. Deep & liquid capital markets 11. Well-developed infrastructure 12. Better inventory control

1. Stronger capex and exports 2. Restrained imports 3. Increased FDI 4. Stronger US manufacturing

“In 2000, average wages in China were 50 cents an hour, now they’re $3.00” – Financial Times “US Steel is investing $100 million in a new plant in Ohio to make tubes for oil and gas wells” – Financial Times “France’ Vallourec is building a $650 million plant in Ohio to make steel tubes for oil and gas wells” – Financial Times “Jobs with starting pay of $60k to $70k are coming to Ohio with drilling in the Marcellus shale” – Zanesville Times Ohio’s manufacturing sector has grown 6.5% from 2010 to 2012, benefitting budgets, housing, retail, and banking - ISI

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US manufacturing renaissance will drive growth in

employment and population in the Midwest

• US manufacturing is benefitting from long-term competitive advantages that include declining labor costs, big emerging markets wage increases (i.e., annual wage growth in China is growing at 15%), low dollar, and low natural gas prices that promote jobs in manufacturing states, and retailers with exposure to those states.

Source: Institute for Supply Management, BLS

31

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Jul-

97

Jun

-98

May

-99

Ap

r-0

0

Mar

-01

Feb

-02

Jan

-03

De

c-0

3

No

v-0

4

Oct

-05

Sep

-06

Au

g-0

7

Jul-

08

Jun

-09

May

-10

Ap

r-1

1

Mar

-12

ISM Manufacturing Index (Employment)

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (Employment)

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2Q

88

2Q

90

2Q

92

2Q

94

2Q

96

2Q

98

2Q

00

2Q

02

2Q

04

2Q

06

2Q

08

2Q

10

2Q

12

% Change YOY

Manufacturing Sector Employment Continues to Expand U.S. Manufacturing Unit Labor Costs Continue to Decline

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…which will drive retail sales growth, particularly in DDR

markets

32

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Source: ISI; Manufacturing states, as defined by ISI, consist of Washington, Utah, North Dakota, Kansas, Texas, Louisiana, Montana, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Ohio, Michigan, Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois

Retailer Store Exposure to Manufacturing States

Pe

rce

nt

of

tota

l sto

res