“Cumulative Effects & Cumulative Effects Assessment: a Conceptual ...
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“Cumulative Effects & Cumulative Effects Assessment: a Conceptual Model” F. Chris Jones 1,2 1 Ontario Ministry of Environment, Dorset Environmental Science Centre 2 Laurentian University, Boreal PhD Program
Transcript of “Cumulative Effects & Cumulative Effects Assessment: a Conceptual ...
“Cumulative Effects & Cumulative Effects Assessment: a Conceptual Model”
F. Chris Jones1,21Ontario Ministry of Environment, Dorset Environmental Science Centre
2Laurentian University, Boreal PhD Program
2Photo credit: http://wikimedia.org
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Conclusion 1:Human undertakings
must proceed in a way that acknowledges the
limitations of our biosphere
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Interactions
Habitat Biota
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Environment
Society
Economy
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“the incremental impact of (some) action when added to other past, present, and reasonably foreseeable future actions”
— US Council on Environmental Quality Photo credit: http://www.one2one‐removals.com.au/
“…any cumulative effects that are likely to result from the project in
combination with other projects or activities that have been or will be
carried out”
Canadian Environmental Assessment Act (1995), Section 16(1) demands consideration of…
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Effect-based Indicators
(Bioindicators)
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Conclusion 2:For assessing
Cumulative Effects,Biological indicators
Are superior to stressor-based indicators
(Jones et al. 2002, Dube et al. 2006)
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Planning/Regulation
ScientificAssessment
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Planning/Regulation
ScientificAssessment
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acceptable (normal)
range
predicted cumulative
effect
acceptable (normal)
range
observed cumulative
effect
Conclusion 3:Planning/regulatory and scientific assessments
are complementary
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)
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Conclusion 4:A formal and transparent process, and
public participation in that process, helps to ensure
that CEA is rational.
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Valued Ecosystem Component
Conclusion 5: Valued ecosystem componentsmust be used to provide a tractable scope
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Conclusion 6:Monitoring and Modeling
have complementary roles
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Conclusion 7:Numerical methods for
assessing cumulative effects are well developed
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(adapted from Noble 2010)
Status quo impact assessment
Needed cumulative effects assessment
assumptions abundance limitsspatial context project multiple scalestemporal context past, present past, present, futurescope regulated activities all disturbancesassessment stressors or effects stressors and effectsfutures predicted impacts possible outcomesmanagement mitigation avoidancemonitoring regulatory compliance thresholds and capacityresponsibility individual proponents multiple stakeholdersperformance evaluation efficiency efficacy
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“…Project proponents operate in the silo of stressor-based approaches to identify and mitigate project stressors, with
governments as gatekeepers. The scientific ...community operates in the silo of effects-based science to understand ecosystem
functioning and environmental effects in response to landscape disturbances. Land-use planners and managers are focused on
broader environmental planning and social matters, while incremental impacts at the project level continue to accumulate”.
— Noble (2010)
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Status quo impact assessment
Needed cumulative effects assessment
assumptions abundance limitsspatial context project multiple scalestemporal context past, present past, present, futurescope regulated activities all disturbancesassessment stressors or effects stressors and effectsfutures predicted impacts possible outcomesmanagement mitigation avoidancemonitoring regulatory compliance thresholds and capacityresponsibility individual proponents multiple stakeholdersperformance evaluation efficiency efficacy
(adapted from Noble 2010)
Conclusion 8: Cumulative effects assessment reflects a
paradigm shift from project‐based environmental assessment.
Hallmarks of Cumulative Effects Assessment
1. Limits are acknowledged2. Biological indicators are prominent3. Monitoring and modeling have complementary roles4. The decision making process is formal, transparent, and participatory
5. Scope is restricted to valued/Significant ecosystem components6. Knowledge inputs & outputs of Planning, regulation, and scientific ecosystem assessments are linked
7. Appropriate numerical methods are used to assess and model cumulative effects
8. A paradigm shift from traditional planning and regulation: ecological limits recognized; possible futures explored at regional scale; complexity acknowledged; avoidance (not mitigation); stakeholder participation; effectiveness assessed
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acceptable (normal) range
predicted cumulative
effect
Environment
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Economy
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AvoidMinimizeRestoreOffset
If not possible
Don’t Allow
(Raiter et al. 2014)
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Cochrane, Mark A., and William F. Laurance. "Synergisms among fire, land use, and climate change in the Amazon." AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment 37.7 (2008): 522-527.
Dubé, Monique, et al. "Development of a new approach to cumulative effects assessment: A northern river ecosystem example." Environmental monitoring and assessment 113.1-3 (2006): 87-115.
Duinker, Peter N., and Lorne A. Greig. "Scenario analysis in environmental impact assessment: Improving explorations of the future." Environmental impact assessment review 27.3 (2007): 206-219.
Duinker, Peter N., and Lorne A. Greig. "The impotence of cumulative effects assessment in Canada: ailments and ideas for redeployment." Environmental Management 37.2 (2006): 153-161.
Fraser, Barbara. "Deforestation: Carving up the Amazon." Nature 509.7501 (2014): 418-419.
Mitchell, Ross E., and John R. Parkins. "The Challenge of Developing Social Indicators for Cumulative Effects Assessment and Land Use Planning." Ecology & Society 16.2 (2011).
Noble, Bram. "Cumulative environmental effects and the tyranny of small decisions: Towards meaningful cumulative effects assessment and management." Natural Resources and Environmental Studies Institute Occasional Paper 8 (2010).
Raiter, Keren G., et al. "Under the radar: mitigating enigmatic ecological impacts." Trends in ecology & evolution (2014).
Wackernagel, Mathis, and William Rees. Our ecological footprint: reducing human impact on the earth. No. 9. New Society Publishers, 1998.
