Cummings Economics The Cairns Economy Recent Movements and Short-Term Prospects Presentation to the...
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Cummings Cummings Economics Economics The Cairns Economy Recent Movements and Short-Term Prospects Presentation to the Cairns Chamber of Commerce Luncheon October 2006 Cummings Economics Ph 4031 2888 Fax 4031 1108 Email: [email protected] Web: www.cummings.net.au Bill Cummings - Principal Cummings Economics Compass Research North Australia Research Group
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Transcript of Cummings Economics The Cairns Economy Recent Movements and Short-Term Prospects Presentation to the...
Cummings Cummings EconomicsEconomics
The Cairns EconomyRecent Movements and Short-Term Prospects
Presentation to the Cairns Chamber of Commerce Luncheon
October 2006
Cummings EconomicsPh 4031 2888 Fax 4031 1108 Email: [email protected] Web: www.cummings.net.au
Bill Cummings - Principal Cummings Economics Compass Research North Australia Research Group
Last Year’s Prediction
The Cairns Economywww.cummings.net.au
October 2006
GROWTH WOULD MODERATE
ON THE RECORD 2004/05 YEAR,
BUT REMAIN HIGH.
Value of Building ApprovalsFar North Qld Statistical Division
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
9001980/8
1
1981/8
2
1982/8
3
1983/8
4
1984/8
5
1985/8
6
1986/8
7
1987/8
8
1988/8
9
1989/9
0
1990/9
1
1991/9
2
1992/9
3
1993/9
4
1994/9
5
1995/9
6
1996/9
7
1997/9
8
1998/9
9
1999/0
0
2000/0
1
2001/0
2
2002/0
3
2003/0
4
2004/0
5
2005/0
6
$M
Source : ABS. The Cairns Economywww.cummings.net.au
October 2006
Cairns Airport – Domestic & International TerminalsTotal Arriving & Departing Passengers
% Increase on same month Previous Year 2005/06
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Source : CPA The Cairns Economywww.cummings.net.au
October 2006
Growth in Room Nights - Hotels Motels
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%19
97/9
8
1998
/99
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
Source : ABS. The Cairns Economywww.cummings.net.au
October 2006
Evidence of StrongEconomic & Population Growth
The Cairns Economywww.cummings.net.au
October 2006
NEWSPAPER SALES HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS LOW RENTAL VACANCY RATES HIGH JOB ADVERTISING RATES WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF
LABOUR SHORTAGES
The Cairns Economywww.cummings.net.au
October 2006
NON-TOURISM GROWTH
“KICKING IN”
IMPACTS OF
“CYCLONE LARRY”
“Cyclone Larry”
The Cairns Economywww.cummings.net.au
October 2006
IMPACTS ON
STOCK/WEALTH
IMPACTS ON
FLOWS
EXPENDITURE
EMPLOYMENT
Estimated Primary Industry Losses
Bananas $283 m
Sugar Cane $74 m
Sugar Mills $37 m
Other Tropical fruits & nuts $58 m
Other (forestry, vegetables, maize, dairy)
$22 m
TOTAL $474 m
The Cairns Economywww.cummings.net.au
October 2006
Source : DPIF Operation Recovery, Industry Action Group.
Insurance Claims
Domestic Households $237 m
Commercial & Industrial $82 m
Rural $83 m
Motor Vehicles, Aviation & Marine $8 m
Business Interruption $5 m
Other $8 m
TOTAL $423 m
The Cairns Economywww.cummings.net.au
October 2006
Source : Insurance Council of Aust.
Cyclone Relief
Larry Centre Link Delivered (to end Sep) $184 m
QRAA & DSD - Loans & Grants (to end Sep)
$7 m
$4 mNational Disaster Funds (to end Jun) (approx) $70 m
Monica $5 m
TOTAL $266 mSay towards : $350 m
The Cairns Economywww.cummings.net.au
October 2006
Timing of Impacts
Major Negative - IMMEDIATE
Positive Relief & Reconstruction
- SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNTS STILL
TO COME
The Cairns Economywww.cummings.net.au
October 2006
Non-Tourism Growth Favourable
The Cairns Economywww.cummings.net.au
October 2006
MARKETS STRONG FOR
PRIMARY PRODUCTS
MINING RISING
SERVICE SECTOR EXPORTS
EXPANDING
Looking Forward
The Cairns Economywww.cummings.net.au
October 2006
STRONG TOURISM GROWTH PHASE
COMMENCING 2001 - OVER
BOOSTED TOURISM FLOWS BY ABOUT
A THIRD
EXCHANGE RATES HIGH
AIRFARE REDUCTIONS OVER
Domestic Air Fare Trends
The Cairns Economywww.cummings.net.au
October 2006
The Cairns Economywww.cummings.net.au
October 2006
Current & Prospective New Mining Operations Identified
Peninsula/Cooktown (8)
Mareeba/Chillagoe (10) Mt Garnet (4)
Bauxite 2 Tungsten 2 Zinc Copper 2
Kaolin 1 Gold 1 Diatomite 1
Silica 1 Copper/Zinc 2 Nickel 1
Tin 1 Tin 2Einasleigh/
Georgetown (4)
Gold 1 Perlite 1 Gold 2
Copper 1 L:imestone 2 Copper 1
Slate 1 Silica 1
27% of Australia’s Water Run Off
The Cairns Economywww.cummings.net.au
October 2006
23.8 m 22.9 m
8.2 m
0
5
10
15
20
25
Murray/DarlingBasin
Mitchell RiverBasin
Burdekin RiverBasin
Major River Basins - Mean Annual Runoff - Megalitres
List Crops Mareeba Dimbulah Irrigation Area
The Cairns Economy www.cummings.net.auOctober 2006
AquacultureBarramundiFreshwater CrayfishFruitsAvocadoBananas CavendishBananas LadyfingerCitrus – LemonsCitrus – LimesCitrus – MandarinsCitrus – GrapefruitCitrus – Oranges Citrus – PummeloCitrus – TangeloCustard ApplesNuts – MacadamiaNuts – CashewNuts – CoconutsDatesLongans
LycheeMangoesPineappleWatermelonGrapesPassion fruitDragon fruitVegetablesPotatoesSweet potatoesAsparagusZucchiniOnionSweet CornPumpkinsBeveragesCoffeeForestryAfricanMahogany
Caribbean PineFibre CropsKenafHempBambooGrain CropsPeanutsMaizeNavy BeanGrain SorghumHerbsSteviaBasilChilliShallotsOrnamental/Garden HorticultureNative Plants/FoliageFlowersNurseriesTurf
Pasture/Fodder CropsHaySeedFeed legumesSeed IablabLupinsLucerneSweet sorghumLivestockCattleCattle – Lot feedingChicken meatEggsPigsGoatsHorsesAviary birdsOtherSugar CaneTea Tree
New Bio Products
DIETARY FIBRE
CHOCOLATES
LOW G SUGAR
SUGAR JUICE
COFFEE ROASTING
The Cairns Economywww.cummings.net.au
October 2006
TROPICAL WINERIES
DRIED FRUITS
BIO FUELS
METHANE GAS
BANANA FIBRE PAPER
SAUCES & CONDIMENTS
Population – Comparative SizeComparative Populations – Northern Australia
Census Count 2001
The Cairns Economywww.cummings.net.au
October 2006
62
,84
5 10
9,4
19
13
5,1
42
12
6,3
64
63
,14
5
19
5,8
19
21
0,6
64
22
2,4
28
25
2,7
15
14
3,5
78
84
,71
6
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Kimber
ley/
Pilbar
a (6
)
Mac
kay
Qld (5
)
Rockh
ampt
on Q
ld (4
)
Darwin
NT (3
)
Townsv
ille Q
ld (2
)
Cairn
s Qld
(1)
City Region
Estimated Residential PopulationGrowth 1996 to 2005
Cairns Hinterland (Balance FNQ SD plus Gulf)
+10,242
Townsville Hinterland (Balance Northern SD plus Bowen, plus Mt Isa area)
(-1,854)
The Cairns Economywww.cummings.net.au
October 2006
Number of Manufacturing LocationsQueensland Regions 2001/02
1201 1250
779 778981
1320
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
DarlingDowns
Wide BayBurnett
FitzroyRegion
Mackay Townsville/North
Cairns/ Far North
No.
Source : ABS The Cairns Economywww.cummings.net.au
October 2006
Services Outside Earnings
The Cairns Economy www.cummings.net.auOctober 2006
Mining operations rest of Qld, NT, Papua (Indonesia), PNG Maritime industries including super yachts Aviation services Education Printing & publishing Music & Performing Arts, Visual Arts & design Advertising, Marketing, Business services Health ServicesNON-LEISURE TOURISM Conferences Sports & EventsDEFENCE & SURVEILLANCE
Roads Expenditure
KENNEDY Hwy (west of Mt Garnet) $17 m
BRUCE Hwy (Cairns/Townsville) $220 m
KURANDA RANGE Rd $500 m plus
PENINSULA DEVELOPMENTAL Rd
$200 m plus
The Cairns Economywww.cummings.net.au
October 2006
Looking Forward
SLOWER TOURISM GROWTH
CONTINUING STRONG ECONOMIC & POPULATION GROWTH
due to
CYCLONE REBUILDING
NON-TOURISM GROWTH
The Cairns Economywww.cummings.net.au
October 2006
www.cummings.net.au
