Cuba Embargo Affirmative - Ethanol Adv and Answers - SDI 2013

8/10/2019 Cuba Embargo Affirmative - Ethanol Adv and Answers - SDI 2013

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New Ethanol Advantage


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Glossary


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Glossary of Terms:

Ethanol

Corn-ethanol

Sugar ethanol

Cellulosic Ethanol

Food-for-fuel

Food spikes

Cerrado

Zoonotic Disease

RFS


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New Adv


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Advantage # ___ is Ethanol

Not all ethanols the same. Cuba wont lear land or dis!lae food. "m!ats arefood pricesBrazil biod and

climate change.

$oligo %&'et al; Ronald Soligo is a professor emeritus of economics at Rice University and a Rice scholar at the ames !" #aker $$$ $nstitute for %u&lic%olicy" 'he author (rites a chapter (ithin the &ook )Cu&a*s Energy Future+ Strategic !pproaches to Cooperation, a #rookings %u&lication,edited &y onathan #en.amin-!lvarado, %hD of %olitical Science, University of /e&raska 0o&tained as an e&ook through 1SU ElectronicResources 0 page 23

Castro has rightly pointed out that there can&e a direct trade-off &et(een using land for food production and for ethanol" !nd

in many areas of the world , the shift in land use to crops for ethanol has resulted in ra!idly rising osts for

food . 'here arealso trade-offs &et(een increasing acreage devoted to crops for ethanol andother o&.ectives such as issues

related to climate, environment, and &iodiversity" "n (ra)il* for e4ample, increasingacreage under sugarcane cultivation

has resulted in shifting other crops to ne(ly cleared areas, often in the rainforest, a process that ultimately could

have devastating effets on limate and biodiversity (ithin and &eyond #ra5il" Cu&a, ho(ever, has had a

traditional comparative advantage intheproduction of sugar" !lthough some of the land used for sugarin the past is &eing

shifted to food crops and reforestation, much of it is not urrently being ultivated at all. 'hus, for Cu&a a restoration of the

sugar economy does notnecessarily haveto involve environmental and food !rodution trade+offs .

$enario # & , Cerrado destrution

Cuban ethanol solves it. -e dis!lae bad ethanol e!ansion from the /$ and (ra)il.

$!eht %&06onathan 0 7egal !dvisor, %earlmaker 8olsteins, $nc" #"!", 7ouisiana State University, 9::2; "D", 0http+??environs"la("ucdavis"edu?issues?@A?9?specht"pdfB

'he full de&ate over the environmental conseuences of the #ra5ilian &iofuelproduction===is largely &eyond the scope of this !rticle" Still,the primary issuein this dispute is (orth noting, &ecause it accentuates one of the most significantdifferences &et(een the U"S" corn-&ased

ethanol industry and the potentialCu&an sugarcane-&ased ethanol industry" $n #ra5il, the e4pansion of sugarcaneproduction to meetdemand for ethanol production has led to land use changes that parallel the e4pansion of corn production for ethanolin the United States"Clearing portions of the !ma5on rainforestone of the most significantrepositories of car&on on Earth==9(ould represent an environmental cost ofethanol production that out(eighs its &enefits" 'he !ma5on region, ho(ever, islargely unsuita&le for

sugarcane production"==@#ut, sugarcane production iscontri&uting to destruction of another sensitive ha&itat, the &io-diverse Cerradosavannah region of #ra5il"==3Cu&an sugarcane-&ased ethanol (ould have the environmental &enefitsof#ra5ilian sugarcane-&ased ethanol (ithout its most o&vious negative factor,damaging ha&itat in the Cerrado"'he environmental effects of &iofuels dependon a num&er of factors"


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ethanol from Cu&a to the U nited S tates (ould reuire lessenergy than transport ing ethanol from #ra5ilto the UnitedStates 6especially if itis used in Florida, an option further e4plored in the section on economiceffectsB"=93!nother reason Cu&an sugarcane-

&ased ethanol could &e one of the mostenvironmentally friendly fuels possi&le is that Cu&a could produce a significantamount ofethanol (ithout any negative impacts on native ha&itat" ! strikingamount of Cu&an agricultural land fifty five percent as of9::G is simply lying fallo( and is not cultivated (ith anything"=9!lthough its character mayhave changed due to years ofneglect, this land is not virgin native ha&itat likethegrasslands of /orth Dakota or the Cerrado of #ra5il" Cu&a therefore couldgreatly increase its production of sugarcane, and thus its production ofsugarcane-&ased ethanol, (ithout negative impacts on (ildlife ha&itat"


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considered an e4pert on &iological diversity" 1ittermeier has formally discovered several monkey species" From Chapter >ne of the &ook#iodiversity 8otspots 0 F"E" Zachos and "C" 8a&el 6eds"B, D>$ =:"=::G?2GH-@-A39-9:229-K=, Q Springer-Ierlag #erlin 8eidel&erg 9:==" 'hisevidence also internally references /orman 1yers, a very famous #ritish environmentalist specialising in &iodiversity" availa&le at+http+??((("academia"edu?=@A:2A?lo&alK&iodiversityKconservationKtheKcriticalKroleKofKhotspotsB

E4tinction is the gravest conseuence of the &iodiversity crisis, since it isirreversi&le"8uman activities have

elevatedthe rate of species e4tinctions to a thousand or more times the natural &ackground rate 6%imm et al" =22B"


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and humans" Since mosuito vectors pass 9concentration overthe past century" 'he increasein C>9and other greenhouse gases is very likely to havecaused climate (armingatunprecedented rates 6$%CC,9::GB" 9stays in the atmosphere,

the remainder isassimilated into terrestrialand ocean ecosystems6Ca-nadellet al", 9::GB" These natural arbon sin1s

are vital for seuesteringatmospheric C>9, and yet the strengthand longevity of these sinks may &e diminishing

6Crameret al", 9::=; Canadellet al", 9::GB" 'he tendencyfor ecosystem gro(ing seasons to lengthen in responsetoclimate (arming 61yneniet al", =22G; Cao X 9uptake &y terres-trial ecosystems"

-arming 1ills billions , ris1s etintion.

38ewon %96Elaine, Citing a Report &y the $%CC, )$%CC+ lo&al


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the year 0'


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large#ecause so muh food and feed is no( diverted to produce fuel, and so muh land is no( used for &iofuels

feedstocks - corn and sugar for ethanol, soy&eans, palm oil and a variety of other plants for &iodiesel" 'his rapidly gro(ing market (as fuelled &ya (ide range of government incentives and mandates and &y the rising price of petroleum" 'hat 3: per cent of the US corn crop &eing put intoUS cars represents an astonishing = per cent of glo&al corn production" /o(here is the impact clearer than in the diversion of US corn intoethanol production" Ethanol no( consumes roughly 3: per cent of the US corn crop, up from .ust per cent a decade ago" 'he &iggest .ump cameafter the US Congress enacted the RFS in 9:: then e4panded it dramatically in 9::G" ! &lending allo(ance of =: per cent for domestic gasolineadded to the demand, a level no( potentially &eing raised to = per cent" 'hese mandates for rising corn ethanol production com&ined (ith ta4incentives to gasoline &lenders and tariff protection against cheaper imports to create todayYs massive ethanol demand for corn" !s corn prices

rose farmers increased production, &ut not enough to accommodate the increased ethanol demand" Soprices .ust kept rising and corn

sto1s @ust 1e!t getting thinner and thinner" 'hey (ere atdangerously lo( levels - a&out = per cent of glo&al use- (hen

the first price spikes happenedin 9::G-9::H" They are at & !er ent now.

>ood wars outweigh your ontrived seurity im!at on !robability and magnitude.

Cribb %&'ulian Cri&&, %rofessor in Science Communication at the University of 'echnology Sydney, 9:=:6ulian, principal of C!, fello( of the !ustralian !cademyof'echnological Sciences and Engineering, )'he Coming Famine+ 'helo&al Food Crisis and irst , Bifting santions s!urs Cuban $ugar Ethanol setor

$oligo %&'et al; Ronald Soligo is a professor emeritus of economics at Rice University and a Rice scholar at the ames !" #aker $$$ $nstitute for %u&lic%olicy" 'he author (rites a chapter (ithin the &ook )Cu&a*s Energy Future+ Strategic !pproaches to Cooperation, a #rookings %u&lication,


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edited &y onathan #en.amin-!lvarado, %hD of %olitical Science, University of /e&raska 0o&tained as an e&ook through 1SU ElectronicResources 0 page 22-=::

'he shift in acreage devoted to food crops has not &een successful in terms of increasing food output, 3@ &ut reforms to give farmers morediscretion in ho( they operate might produce &etter results in the future" #ut significantly increasing acreage devoted to food crops (ill not &eeasy" Food crops are much more fragile than sugarcane, reuiring more la&or, (eeding, pest control, and oversight than cane, (hich has &eenreferred to as the )(ido(*s crop &ecause it reuires relatively little attention" !s noted previously, thousands of farm (orkers have migrated to

ur&an areas and it (ill &e difficult to lure them &ack" $f economic sanctions are removed and Cu&a enters the international

commercial system, food security (ill &e less important, and Cu&an agriculture (ill &e more likely to respond to international prices"8istorically, Cu&a has had a comparative advantage in producing sugar, not food crops; so opening the economy tofreer trade might favor a return to the dominance of sugar anddevelopment of an ethanol industry" 1ore recently, Cu&ahas e4pressed interest in producing and e4porting soy&eans, and the #ra5ilian government has offered )technical assistance and seed in order togro( soy&eans on an industrial scale" 33 Soy&eans have many uses, including as a feedstock for the production of &iodiesel, &ut it is not clear atthis point (hether soy&eans represent a more efficient use of Cu&an land than sugarcane"

Cuba an generate huge amounts of sugar+ethanol via one+used land.

$oligo %&'et al; Ronald Soligo is a professor emeritus of economics at Rice University and a Rice scholar at the ames !" #aker $$$ $nstitute for %u&lic%olicy" 'he author (rites a chapter (ithin the &ook )Cu&a*s Energy Future+ Strategic !pproaches to Cooperation, a #rookings %u&lication,

edited &y onathan #en.amin-!lvarado, %hD of %olitical Science, University of /e&raska 0o&tained as an e&ook through 1SU ElectronicResources 0 page H:

$n 9::9 (e pu&lished a paper on Cu&an energy that &egan (ith the o&servation )Cu&a is considered a promising gro(th energymarket in the !mericas" = Eight years later Cu&a sho(seven greaterpromise in the energy sector,&ut progress in reali5ingenergy opportunities has &een slo(" aining a &etter understanding of Cu&a*s energy potential is important for policymakers in theUnited States, Cu&a, and the Cari&&ean region" From the !merican point of vie(, the possi&ility of having an additional supplier ofenergy to the U"S" market located .ust a fe( miles offshore could contri&ute significantly to the United States*energy security" 'he magnitude of Cu&a*s energy resources is uncertain, &ut one estimate, &y the U"S" eological Survey, is that Cu&a hasmean )undiscovered reserves of 3"A &illion &arrels of conventional oil and 2"H trillion cu&ic feet of natural gas in the /orth Cu&a #asin" 9 $n

addition, Cu&a has large land areas that once produced sugar &ut no( lie idle" 'hese could &e revived to provide a&asis for a (orld-class ethanol industry"


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!s the result of a precipitous contraction in the Cu&an economy, Cu&ans have recently e4perienced crippling energy cut&acks and other shortfallsthat are reminiscent of the devastating hardships of the )Special %eriod, and industries have continued to falter due to the evaporation of credit

and investment flo(s (hich largely dried up after the &reak-up of the Soviet empire" $n the first half of 9::2, the >&ama!dministrationlaunched a series of modest initiatives aimed at normali5ing U"S"-Cu&a relations, most recently e4emplified &y theloosening of restrictions on travel&y Cu&a-!mericans, lifting controls on remittances, and giving the nod to U"S"telecommunication investments on the island" 'hough %resident >&ama recently rene(ed the 'rading rti5, director of the Cu&an &usiness society ZERUS, told &usinessmaga5ine >pciones in 9::A that, )any efforts &y foreign and Cu&an entrepreneurs to .ointly produce ethanol in Cu&a must first look at

guaranteeing financial and technological resources needed to &oost sugarcane production as the necessary ra( material for the advancement ofethanol pro.ects"'he Cu&an government*s decision to disassem&le most of Cu&a*s aging sugarcane infrastructure stemmed from the &elief that

production of the commodity (as no longer cost effective for Cu&a" !s Fidel Castro noted, )


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0AC 3aterials start here


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Cuba an be huge !roduer

D Cuban ethanol an be huge , one the worlds biggest !roduer.

$oligo %&'et al; Ronald Soligo is a professor emeritus of economics at Rice University and a Rice scholar at the ames !" #aker $$$ $nstitute for %u&lic%olicy" 'he author (rites a chapter (ithin the &ook )Cu&a*s Energy Future+ Strategic !pproaches to Cooperation, a #rookings %u&lication,edited &y onathan #en.amin-!lvarado, %hD of %olitical Science, University of /e&raska 0o&tained as an e&ook through 1SU ElectronicResources 0 page 2@-23

$t is natural to associate Cu&a (ith sugar" !t one time, Cu&a (as the (orld*s largest e4porter of sugar" $t (as a ma.or supplierto the United States &efore the Cu&an Revolution, and to the Soviet Union in the =2G:s and =2H:s" #ut the industry hasundergone a steep declinesince ma.or trade (ith the Soviet Union ended" Sugar production, as high as H"= million tons in=2HH, had fallen to ="9 million tons&y 9::2" 92 !creage devoted to sugar (as reduced &y over A: percent from 9::9 to 9::H" Sugarmills have &een closed, (ith the num&er of plants falling from =A to only H" $n 9::A, output of ra( sugar (as appro4imately ="9 million tons,reportedly the lo(est output since =2:H"

D Cuban ethanol is a bonan)a waiting to ha!!en

-inter %&0(Brian, Chief Correspondent, Reuters Brazil from Sao Paulo, US and Brazil: At last, friends on ethanol,http+??((("reuters"com?article?9:=9?:2?=3?us-&ra5il-us-ethanol-idUS#REHHD=29:=9:2=3 , J'ZB

Cu&aYs once-mighty sugar industry has deteriorated in recent decades under communist rule, &utRice Universityeconomist Ron Soligo has said the country has the potential to &ecome the (orldYs /o" @ ethanol producer &ehind theUnited States and #ra5il"While Washington has had little diplomati ontat !ith Cu"a in the past #$e deades, #ra5il has atradition of (arm political and economic ties (ith the Cari&&ean nation" %resident Dilma Rousseff visited 8avana inanuary and spoke of ho( #ra5il can help Cu&a develop its economy" 7arge-scale ethanol production has &eenlargely ta&oo in Cu&a , in part &ecause former %resident Fidel Castro has denounced it as a sinister idea that drivesup glo&al food prices " Pet some #ra5ilian officials say that stance could change dramatically once the HA-year-oldleader (ithdra(s from politics" Every&ody kno(s that Cu&a is an ethanol &onan5a (aiting to happen, said a#ra5ilian official!ho re%uested anon&mit&' We)ll "e read&'
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/14/us-brazil-us-ethanol-idUSBRE88D19520120914http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/14/us-brazil-us-ethanol-idUSBRE88D19520120914


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A+to Cuba says no;

D Cuba wont say no; , inentives are too tem!ting

Elledge %7/icholas Elledge 0 Research Fello( at Council on 8emispheric !ffairs 0 0 degrees from 'he 7ondon School of Economics and %olitical Scienceand Southern 1ethodist University 0 )Cu&a*s Sugarcane Ethanol %otential+ Cu&a, Raul Castro, and the Return of Jing Sugar to the $sland 0>cto&er 92, 9::2 0 http+??((("coha"org?cu&as-sugarcane-ethanol-potential?

! s(eeping mandate from the top is an incontroverti&le reuirement for Cu&ato &e a&le to open itself to any influ4 ofinvestment, especially from the U nited S tates" iven Cu&a*spronounced and .ustifia&le hostility against U"S" intervention,such an endeavor (ould provea difficulttask for 8avana" 8o(ever, &oth internal and e4ternal incentives e4ist toprompt Cu&a to act(ith aviditytoreassess and revamp its capital assets"Similar to China, Cu&an uasi-visionaries&elieve that they stand to gain much &y riding the currents of capitalism (hile still holding fast to the spirit of 7aRevoluci[n"


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/$ 1ey

D /$ 1ey , im!ort restritions blo1ing growth of Cuban sugar.

$oligo %&'

et al; Ronald Soligo is a professor emeritus of economics at Rice University and a Rice scholar at the ames !" #aker $$$ $nstitute for %u&lic%olicy" 'he author (rites a chapter (ithin the &ook )Cu&a*s Energy Future+ Strategic !pproaches to Cooperation, a #rookings %u&lication,edited &y onathan #en.amin-!lvarado, %hD of %olitical Science, University of /e&raska 0o&tained as an e&ook through 1SU ElectronicResources 0 page 23

'he postrevolutionary government chose to stressindustriali5ation and agricultural diversificationand to deemphasi5e sugar asits gro(th engine" @A !las, as many 7atin !merican countries also discovered, an import su&stitution strategy reuires ample supplies of capitaland foreign e4change to finance investments in industry and the necessary complementary infrastructure, much of (hich has a large imported

component" $n the a&sence of private foreign investment, Cu&a had to rely on its e4ports to provide the foreign e4changeresources necessary for these investments"


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A+to teh barriers;

D >oreign investment an overome Cuban teh barriers


$t must &e noted that Cu&a*s ethanol and sugar production capacity (ill increase e4ponentially if direct foreigninvestment, (hich has &een seen only sparingly up to no(, is encouraged to enter&y direct government policy" Starved &y a recurrentshortage of hard currency, ne( capital inputs needed to moderni5e Cu&an sugar mills (ould have to come from a&road" 'o rectify this currentshortage,


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A+to Castro will blo1;

D aul will allow sugar ethanol

Elledge %7/icholas Elledge 0 Research Fello( at Council on 8emispheric !ffairs 0 degrees from 'he 7ondon School of Economics and %olitical Scienceand Southern 1ethodist University 0 )Cu&a*s Sugarcane Ethanol %otential+ Cu&a, Raul Castro, and the Return of Jing Sugar to the $sland 0>cto&er 92, 9::2 0 http+??((("coha"org?cu&as-sugarcane-ethanol-potential?

Raul Castro, (ho has &een hailed as more of a pragmatist than hisfamed&rother, seems to &e open to the idea ofinvestment and moderni5ation" $n a uly 9::2 keynote speech to the legislature, he emphasi5ed his concept of )rational socialism, a geopoliticalgame plan focused on increased productivity and efficiency" 'his is e4actly the type of political typology (elcomed in today*s glo&al economyand contrasts (ith the commercial autarky traditionally favored &y Cu&a"!fter U"S" corn-&ased ethanol policies helped &ring a&out a glo&al food

shortage in 9::G, the use of food for fuel has &een the Castro &rothers* primary ideological o&.ection to ethanol" 8o(ever, a distinctdifference e4ists &et(een the utili5ation of corn and sugarcane, as the latter is not used as a food source"!s


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A+to -ont allow >";

D Cuba will allow >" , >idels influene down.

$aida1 %&0'homas Saidak 0 reporter for #ioFuels Digest 0 #ioFuels Digest 0 Fe&ruary @, 9:=9 0 http+??((("&iofuelsdigest"com?&digest?9:=9?:9?:@?cu&a-may-allo(-foreign-direct-investment-in-sugarcane-ethanol?"

$n Cu&a, the government is considering allo(ing foreign investment in sugarcane &ased ethanol production"'ovar

/unes, a #ra5ilian Foreign 1inistry spokesman stated, ) >idels resistane in this field is being overome. Fidel has historically

&een against ethanol &ased on concerns that this (ould compete (ith food production" >ver the last G years, the Cu&an sugar industry has seen

half the country*s mill close and cultivation drop"Cu&a reportedly has the capacity to produce nearly 9 &illion gallons per year" $f Cu&apursues reaching its full potential, it could &ecome the third largest ethanol producer in the (orld"

D Cu&a (ill allo( FD$ 0 trends shifting"

Cuba $tandard &06an" 9:, Cu&an #usiness and Economic /e(s, )Cu&an Ethanol %roduction 1ay >pen Up 'o Foreign $nvestment,http+??((("cu&astandard"com?9:=9?:=?9:?cu&an-ethanol-production-may-open-up-to-foreign-investment?B

Hveroming the ob@etions of Fidel Castro, the Cu&an government is &eginning to consider large-scale ethanol

productionon the sugarcane-rich island, a #ra5ilian official said" "nvestment o!!ortunities for #ra5ilian companies in ethanol

!rodution in Cuba are about to o!en u! , said Foreign 1inistry spokesman 'ovar /unes after a visit of Foreign 1inister !ntonio

%atriota to Cu&a in anuary, according Folha de SNo %aulo")Fidel*s resistance in this field is &eing overcome , /unes said"


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Cuba willing to reform its eonomy for $ugar Ethanol

D Cuba will reform its eonomy for $ugar Ethanol

=osner %F

!ndre( %osner 0 $n 9::G, !ndy (as an Environmental Studies 1asters student at #ro(n University" 8e has gone on to &e the 'ransportationcorrespondent for 'reehugger"com 0 )Cu&a+ Can YRedY Ethanol #e reen 0 'reehugger"com 0 Fe&ruary 9, 9::H 0http+??((("treehugger"com?cars?cu&a-can-red-ethanol-&e-green"html

!fter 32 years in po(er, FidelCastro has stepped aside and allo(edhis &rother Ra\l,GA, to &ecomepresident" f course,Cu&a (ouldnYt &e a&le to start producing all that ethanol (ithout a huge investment in Cu&aYs rickety sugarindustry" !nd doing so (ill reuirethe kind ofreformthat has helped make China the po(erhouse that it is+ namely, foreigninvestment" 'his kind of reform may not &e as unlikely as it sounds" !ccording to a pens Door for Reforms,Y Cu&aYs leaders likely (ill (ant to pursue an incremental, gradual approach to

reform that does not privati5e the large state-run sector &ut allo(s a ne( private sector to gro( alongside it" >h, and &y the (ay,

Cu&a has&een moderni5ing its ethanol infrastructure, al&eit uietly"


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A+to All biofuels I bad for environment;

D Not all biofuels bad , we dis!lae orn* whih is distintly worse.

Greene %&'(*athaneal, diretor of rene!a"le energ& poli& for the *atural Resoures +efense Counil, a nonpro#ten$ironmental organization, ore ethanol in gasoline is ris-&,http:..!!!'nn'om./010.2P3*32*.10./0.greene'ethanol'ris-.inde4'html ,567

Wednesda& is the si48month anni$ersar& of the BP "lo!out that ontinues to de$astate 9ulf ommunities andremind us of our need to #nd ne! lean energ& soures for our ars, homes and "usinesses'

>neof those clean energy sources can &e &iofuels88 energ& gro!n right here on our land rather than drilled fordeep underneath the arth)s surfae' But despite the huge opportunities in this area, "ig industr& and shortsightedplanning are one again derailing us from a trul& lean green path'

;ere)s the simple realit& 88 not all biofuels are reated e?ual " Some reduce pollution, &ut some, like corn-&ased

ethanol in particular, do more harm than good' When all diret and indiret impats are fatored in, corn ethanol

production causes more global warming !ollution than the oil it is meant to replace, contaminates our (ater(ays

and raises the price of food and feed in our stores"
http://www.cnn.com/2010/OPINION/10/20/greene.ethanol.risk/index.htmlhttp://www.cnn.com/2010/OPINION/10/20/greene.ethanol.risk/index.htmlhttp://www.cnn.com/2010/OPINION/10/20/greene.ethanol.risk/index.html


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A+to =lanting new sugar solves CH0;

D This isnt offense for them , every !lant we remove from (ra)il we reate in Cuba.

D =lowing new fields releases arbon , this is more true of Cerrado that Cuba

(iello %'FDavid #ielo, associate editor for Scientific !merican, has &een covering energy and the environment for nearly a decade, and graduate ofColom&ia University, 9::H, )#iofuels !re #ad for Feeding %eople and Com&ating Climate Change,http+??((("scientificamerican"com?article"cfmidW&iofuels-&ad-for-people-and-climateXpageW9 6RSCB

Converting corn to ethanol in $o(a not only leads to clearing more of the !ma5onian rainforest, researchers report in a pair

of ne( studies in Science,&ut also (ould do little to slo( glo&al (armingand often make it (orse " %rior analyses made an

accounting error, says one studyYs lead author, 'im Searchinger, an agricultural e4pert at %rinceton University" 'here is a huge im&alance &et(eenthe car&on lost &y plo(ing up a hectare 9"3G acresV of forest or grassland from the &enefit you get from &iofuels"ro(ing plants store car&on in their roots, shoots and leaves" !s a result, the (orldYs plants and the soil in (hichthey gro( contain nearly three times as much car&on as the entire atmosphere" $ kno( (hen $ look at a tree that half the dry (eightof it is car&on, says ecologist David 'ilman of the University of 1innesota, coauthor of the other study (hich e4amined the car&on de&t em&edded inany &iofuel" 'hatYs going to end up as car&on dio4ide in the atmosphere (hen you cut it do(n
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=biofuels-bad-for-people-and-climate&page=2http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=biofuels-bad-for-people-and-climate&page=2http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=biofuels-bad-for-people-and-climate&page=2


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A+to Corn not 1ey to all >ood !ries;

D Corn is 1ey to all food !ries.

6/G6BETT %&&$nternally uoting Darrel ood, an agricultural economist at the University of $llinois,1$JE 8U87E''; S'!FF


25/65

A+to Aff I food for fuel;

D $ugars different , Aff is not food+for+fuel.


Raul Castro, (ho has &een hailed as more of a pragmatist than his famed &rother, seems to &e open to the idea of investment and moderni5ation"$n a uly 9::2 keynote speech to the legislature, he emphasi5ed his concept of )rational socialism, a geopolitical game plan focused on increased

productivity and efficiency" 'his is e4actly the type of political typology (elcomed in today*s glo&al economy and contrasts (ith the commercial

autarky traditionally favored &y Cu&a"!fter U"S" corn-&ased ethanol policies helped &ring a&out a glo&al food shortagein9::G, the use of food for fuel has &een theCastro &rothers* primary ideological o&.ection to ethanol" 8o(ever, a distinctdifference e4ists &et(een the utili5ation of corn and sugarcane, as the latter is not used as a food source" !s


26/65

A+to 3idwest Eon isad

D No 3idwest eon disad

$!eht %&0

6onathan 0 7egal !dvisor, %earlmaker 8olsteins, $nc" #"!", 7ouisiana State University, 9::2; "D", 0http+??environs"la("ucdavis"edu?issues?@A?9?specht"pdfB

ne (ay to greatlyincrease the state*s ethanol consumption(ould &e to (iden the availa&ility of Fle4 Fuel Iehicles and gas stations thatsell E-H 6a &lend ofgasoline that is eighty-five percent ethanolB" !ccording tothe U"S" Department of Energy*s !lternative Fuels and !dvanced Iehicles DataCenter, forty-four Florida gas stations no( sell EH &lends"=GA'hough thisrepresents a rapid increase in availa&ility, given that ethanol hasonly &eenmarketed in the state for five years, it is still a relatively small num&er" 6$o(a,(hich has a fraction of Florida*s population, has over=:: more stations sellingE-HB"=GGEthanol from Cu&an-gro(n sugarcane could enter the gasoline supply ofFlorida in one of t(o (ays+sugar could &e refined into ethanol in Cu&a and thenshipped to the United States, or Cu&an sugar could &e shipped to the UnitedStates andrefined into ethanol domestically"


27/65

Lroot to refinery"* 'hat cost (ill &e a function ofharvesting and collecting costs, (hich vary (ith the (eight and &ulk of thefeedstock, anddistance to the &iofuel plant" 'ransportation costs are a ma.orissue for many ethanol producers"=GHShipping Cu&an sugar &y sea to anethanolrefinery in Florida (ould &e a lo( cost transportation option"=G2!dditionally,according to a 9::A report from the USD!*s >ffice ofthe Chief Economist, thecapital e4penditure costs of &uilding a ne( sugarcane ethanol plant (ould &esu&stantially reduced if it (ere &uiltad.acent to an e4isting sugar productionfacility"=H:'hus, some of Florida*s e4isting sugar refineries could also &ecomeethanol refineries ata lo(er cost than &uilding a completely ne( ethanolrefinery"7ooking further into the future, a dedicated ethanol pipeline has &eenproposed to

&ring ethanol from the corn-producing 1id(est to the fuel-hungryEast Coast"=H=$f a sta&le and consistent international ethanol trade arises(ithFlorida as its U"S" entrep]t, eventuallya dedicated ethanol pipeline could &e&uilt from Florida to !tlanta 6a ma.or fuel consuming cityB"

=H9'his (ould &e &eneficial &oth in stimulating !tlanta*s fledgling ethanol market and &ringingconstruction .o&s to the states of Florida andeorgia"C" Economic Effects of Cu&an Ethanol on the United States enerally>utside of the 1id(est and Florida, from a purely economic

6rather thanenvironmental and economicB perspective, the uestion of (hether the UnitedStates should replace a portion ofits gasoline (ith domestic corn-&ased ethanolor Cu&an sugarcane-&ased ethanol (ould appear to largely &e a(ash" >n onehand, the U"S" trade deficit (ould increase to the e4tent that a domesticallyproduced product (as replaced &y imports" >n theother, opening trade relations(ith Cu&a generally (ould open many opportunities for e4ports from the UnitedStates to that country" 'his couldinclude e4ports of corn and other productsfrom the 1id(est" %erhaps the primary U"S" &eneficiaries of replacing a portionof domestic corn-

&ased ethanol (ith Cu&an sugarcane-&ased ethanol, outside ofFlorida, (ould &e livestock farmers and ranchers" 'he primary economicconsiderations for (hether a given dairy, &eef, pork, or chicken operation can &eprofita&le are the costs of feed and the price of the product sold6milk, &eef,pork, or chickenB" #y driving up the cost of corn, the domestic corn-&asedethanol industry threatens the profita&ility of U"S"livestock operations"=H@'hus,importing sugarcane-&ased ethanol from Cu&a could actually &enefit a sector ofthe U"S" agricultural industry

including the portion of it in the 1id(est &ylo(ering demand for corn and thus the price of corn"

D Eon resilient

E."./. %&&6Economist $ntelligence Unit 0 lo&al Forecasting Service, ==?=A?*==6http+??gfs"eiu"com?!rticle"asp4article'ypeWgefXarticle$dWAAH2A3=Xsec$DWGB

The US economy, &y any standard, remains (eak, and consumer and &usiness sentiment are close to 9::2 lo(s" 'hat said, the economyhas been surprisingly resilient in the face ofso many shocks .US real D% e4panded &y arelatively ro&ust 9"Min the third uarter of 9:==, t(ice the rate of the previous uarter" Consumer spending rose&y 9"3M, (hich is impressive given thatreal incomes droppedduring the uarter 6the savings rate fell, (hich helps to e4plain the anomaly"B 8istorically, US consumers have&een (illing to spend even in difficult times"#efore the 9::H-:2 slump, personal spending rose in every uarter &et(een =229 and9::G" 'hat resilience is again in evidence+ retail sales in Septem&er (ere at a seven-month high, and sales at chain stores have &eenstrong" #usiness investment has &eeneven more&uoyant+ it e4panded in the third uarter &y an impressive =A"@M at an annual rate, andspending &y companiesin Septem&er onconventional capital goods6that is, e4cluding defence and aircraftB gre( &y the mostsince 1arch" 'his has &een made possi&le, in part,&y strong corporate profits"!ccording to data compiled &y #loom&erg,

earnings for US companies in the SX% :: rose &y 93M year on year in the third uarter" All of thishas occurred despite adebilitatingfiscal de&ate in Washington , a sovereign debt downgrade&y a ma.or ratings agency and exceptionalvolatility in capital markets.'his reinforces our vie( that the US economy, although (eak, is not in danger of fallinginto a recession6a&sent a shock from the euro 5oneB" US gro(th (ill, ho(ever, continue to &e held &ack &y a (eak la&our markettheunemployment rate has &een at or a&ove 2M for 9H of the last @: monthsand &y a mori&und housing market"

D /$ isnt 1ey to the global eonomy , deou!ling !roves

(loomberg %&')


28/65

&ank is also &etting that yields on U"S" =:-year de&t (ill &e lo(er &y une than euivalent yields for ermany, the U"J", Canada, !ustralia and/or(ay" U"S" notes (ill rise to 9"H percent from 9"9 percent, ermany*s (ill increase to @ percent from 9"@ percent and Canada*s (ill gro( to@"H percent from 9"GA percent on >ct" =, oldman Sachs pro.ects" oldman Sachs isn*t alone in making the case for decoupling" 8arris at #of!1errill 7ynch said he didn*t &uy the argument prior to the financial crisis" /o( he &elieves glo&al gro(th is strong enough to offer a)handkerchief to the U"S" as it suffers a )gro(th recession of (eak e4pansion and rising unemployment, he said" iving him confidence is his

calculation that the /.$. share of global G= has shrun1to a&out 93 percent from @= percent in 9:::" 8e also notes that, unlike theU"S", many countries avoided asset &u&&les, kept their &anking systems sound and improved their trade and &udget positions" Economic

7ocomotives ! &ook pu&lished last (eek &y the


29/65

he could to avoid (ar (ith ermany in =23= 6orodetsky =222B" %ost(ar Soviet leaders risked (ar &y pro4y, &ut avoided direct conflict (ith the )main adversary"Faced (ith unfavoura&le odds, they tended to (ithdra( 6from Cu&aB or do nothing 6in %olandB or accepted them (ith great reluctance 6in 8ungary, C5echoslovakia,

and !fghanistanB" Diversionary tension must fall short of diversionary (ar " From this follo(s an acceptance thatcapitalism, &ecause of its tendency to give rise to democratic structures and political competition, has &een moreopen to diversionary (arsthan other systems" #ut the empirical research and analysis that underpin this conclusion alsoimply that such (ars (ould generally &e small scale and short lived , and the circumstances that give rise to them(ould &e e4ceptional or transient"


30/65

A+to Alt ause , $oy K Cattle >arming in Cerrado;

D $oy and Cattle are only in Cerrado becauseethanols !ushing them there.

3Gowan %9

Chris 1co(an is an author and .ournalist (hose interests range across culture, politics, and environmental issues" 1co(an has (rittene4tensively a&out #ra5il, and &een intervie(ed a&out #ra5il &y the ##C, the /e( Pork 'imes, !ir'alk, and various /%R affiliates" 1co(an(as a contri&utor to 'he Encyclopedia of 7atin !merican 8istory and Culture 6Charles Scri&nerYs SonsB" )#iofuel Could Eat #ra5ilYs Savannas XDeforest the !ma5on 0 8uffington %ost+ reen 0 Septem&er =3, 9::G 0 http+??((("huffingtonpost"com?chris-mcgo(an?&iofuel-could-eat-

&ra5ilsK&KA33AA"html

'hese days, (hen you fill up your car (ith a gasoline-and-ethanol &lend, you are pro&a&ly &urning ethyl alcohol made from !merican corn" !

fe( years from no(, your commute may &e po(ered &y ethanol from sugarcane gro(n in #ra5ilYs cerrado, a &iodiversityhotspot that is the largest savanna in South !merica and disappearing at a faster rate than the !ma5on" Poumay &e hastening the demise of the(orldYs largest rain forest as (ell" !nd you (onYt &e alone+ !>7 founder Steve Case, film producer Steven #ing, supermarket magnate Ron#urkle, glo&al financier eorge Soros, and other (ell-kno(n investors 6see &elo(B could end up playing leading roles in #ra5ilian deforestation"Case and his colleagues are &anking on #ra5ilian &iofuel" 'hey may &e hoping to make a green investment that (ill help save the (orld, or they

may .ust (ant to get a piece of the ne4t gold rush" #ut theypro&a&ly donYt understand the importance of the cerrado, or thepossi&le environmental conseuencesof their actions"#ra5ilYs president 7ui5 $nOcio 7ula da Silva and some &iofuel &oosters claim that#ra5ilian ethanol production (ill not affect the !ma5on 6it (ill, mostly indirectlyB" Some also say that the !ma5onYs deforestation rate has slo(eddramatically 6true, if youYve got a short attention spanB" !ctually, the !ma5on is still in grave danger"Ethanol advocates in #ra5il assert thatmillions of hectares are availa&le for gro(ing sugar cane outside of the !ma5on rain forest in grasslands, scru&lands or degraded

pasturelands, &y (hich they refer to land in the cerrado or in #ra5ilYs Southeast" 'he cerrado is treated as a sort of under-utili5ed (asteland,rather than the species-rich &iome that it is" Referring to it only as grasslands is like using that (ord alone to denote the famed savanna that isEast !fricaYs Serengeti" 'he cerrado is important as more than .ust potential pasture or cane acreage, and it is under siege"'he Ethanol E4plosion

X #iofuel #oom


31/65

that run through the !ma5on rain forest" Some G::,::: s" km" of the cerrado is located (ithin the !ma5on &asin 6the total area that drains intothe !ma5on River system; not to &e confused (ith the !ma5on rain forestB"'he cerradoYs fate also concerns the famed %antanal, the (orldYslargest contiguous (etland, (ith =3:,::: suare kilometers in #ra5ilian territory" $t &orders the cerrado in 1ato rosso and 1ato rosso do Sulstates, and has A: species of &irds, H: species of mammals, @A: fish species and : reptile species" 'he %antanal is under environmental threat as

(ell"#iofuel, Cele&rity $nvestors X the Cerrado'o increaseits ethanol production, #ra5il is gro(ing more sugar cane in

$Lo =aulo and %aranO states in the South" $t is also ramping up production in the Center-


32/65

Cerrado 1ey to he1 global warming

D Cerrado 1ey to he1 global warming

.f.E. %&&

6from the UJ Department for Environment, Food X Rural !ffairs 0 internally uoting UJ D"f"E" Environment Secretary Caroline Spelman 0)%ress release #ra5ilian savannah as important as rainforests, says Spelman %u&lished G !pril 9:== 0https+??((("gov"uk?government?ne(s?&ra5ilian-savannah-as-important-as-rainforests-says-spelmanB

Speaking on a visit to #ra5il, 1rs Spelman said that the !ma5on rainforests tended to gra& headlinesaround the (orld, &ut #ra5ilhasmany other important areas for(ildlife and climate change that should not &e overlooked" )'he Cerrado is

globally important in terms of&iodiversity and storing the (orld*s car&on dio4ide, &ut it doesn*t receive the same attention from

the international community" #ecause of that, people are not a(are of the uncertain future it faces")'he Cerrado is a huge area- as &ig

as >rane * Germany* "taly , $!ain and the /8 put together- it*s too important to the (hole (orld to leave its

protection to chance"


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A+to Alt ause Ama)on;

D Cerrado outweighs Ama)on. "ts more endangeredand its health spills-to Amazon.

3Gowan %7Chris 1co(an is an author and .ournalist (hose interests range across culture, politics, and environmental issues" 1co(an has (rittene4tensively a&out #ra5il, and &een intervie(ed a&out #ra5il &y the ##C, the /e( Pork 'imes, !ir'alk, and various /%R affiliates" 1co(an(as a contri&utor to 'he Encyclopedia of 7atin !merican 8istory and Culture 6Charles Scri&nerYs SonsB" )'he $mportance of #eing Cerrado+#ra5ilYs >ther 8uge, Endangered Ecosystem 0 8uffington %ost 0 =9-9H- 9::2 0 http+??((("huffingtonpost"com?chris-mcgo(an?the-importance-of-&eing-cK&K3:339"html

Everyone kno(s the vital importance of the !ma5on rain forest for our planet, &ut fe( are a(are that right ne4t door is another endangered

ecosystem of great si5e and considera&le importance" 'he Cerrado is a vast savanna that stretches across t(o million suare kilometers incentral #ra5il and is a&out the si5e of !laska and California put together" 'he Cerradodeserves our attention+ it is one of the oldestand most diverse tropical ecosystems and is under grave threat &ecause of the countryYs ag ricultural&oom"'he Cerradohas lost

3HM of its original vegetation and is disa!!earing faster than the Ama)on rain forest; it may &e gone &efore (e reali5e

(hat (eYve lost" And its health affets its neighboring biomeMs health ; many large tri&utaries of the !ma5onRiver

originate in the Cerrado"'he Cerrado consists of open grasslands, grasslands mi4ed (ith shru&s and small trees, and dry-forest (oodlands"

'he region is much drier than the !ma5on, (hich it &orders along the latterYs southeastern edge; the Cerrado has a long annual dry season and itsplants are drought-tolerant and often fire-adapted" aguars, giant anteaters, maned (olves, fo4es, pampas deer, tapirs, capy&aras, and monkeyslive in the Cerrado, as do nearly 9:: other mammals, A:: &ird species, 99: reptiles, and more than =:,::: plant species 633M endemic, according

to Conservation $nternationalB" 'he Cerrado is the most &iologically diverse savanna on Earth"$t is the home of many of #ra5ilYsindigenous peoples, (ho have &een adversely affected &y the deforestation, and the location of ma.or cities like #raslia, the countryYs capital"

D Cerrado outweighs Ama)on.

2itali %&&6$sa&ella Iitali 0 Senior %olicy >fficer,


34/65


35/65

A+to Cerrado !roteted now;

D Cerrado !rotetions insuffiient.

3Gowan %7

Chris 1co(an is an author and .ournalist (hose interests range across culture, politics, and environmental issues" 1co(an has (rittene4tensively a&out #ra5il, and &een intervie(ed a&out #ra5il &y the ##C, the /e( Pork 'imes, !ir'alk, and various /%R affiliates" 1co(an(as a contri&utor to 'he Encyclopedia of 7atin !merican 8istory and Culture 6Charles Scri&nerYs SonsB" )'he $mportance of #eing Cerrado+#ra5ilYs >ther 8uge, Endangered Ecosystem 0 8uffington %ost 0 =9-9H- 9::2 0 http+??((("huffingtonpost"com?chris-mcgo(an?the-importance-of-&eing-cK&K3:339"html

!t the present rate of destruction, the Cerrado ecosystem could disappear almost entirely (ithin a fe( decades"

Bess than two !erent of the Cerrado is located (ithinnational parks or conservation areas,according to the /ature

Conservancy 6in addition, a percentage of native ha&itat is supposed to &e protected on all private land,&y la(B"


36/65

A+to Cerrado not im!ortant $ugar wont dis!lae (iod;

D Their args have e!istemi bias. (iased re!orts state Cerrado will be fine

3Gowan %7Chris 1co(an is an author and .ournalist (hose interests range across culture, politics, and environmental issues" 1co(an has (rittene4tensively a&out #ra5il, and &een intervie(ed a&out #ra5il &y the ##C, the /e( Pork 'imes, !ir'alk, and various /%R affiliates" 1co(an(as a contri&utor to 'he Encyclopedia of 7atin !merican 8istory and Culture 6Charles Scri&nerYs SonsB" )'he $mportance of #eing Cerrado+#ra5ilYs >ther 8uge, Endangered Ecosystem 0 8uffington %ost 0 =9-9H- 9::2 0 http+??((("huffingtonpost"com?chris-mcgo(an?the-importance-of-&eing-cK&K3:339"html

'hese figures are even scarier (hen one considers that only =:"AM of the Cerrado had &een cleared as of =2G:, according to scientists Carlos !"Jlink and !driana " 1oreira, in an article in the &ook 'he Cerrados of #ra5il+ Ecology and /atural 8istory of a /eotropical Savanna" 'his

rapid conversion of the Cerrado has helped topo(er the #ra5ilian economyin recent years, and there is&ig money atstake" $t is not surprising then that those (ho promote agriculture in the Cerrado tend to descri&e its natural vegetation as

scru& and (asteland . They also ta1e !ains to misleadingly argue that biofuel will have no effet on the

Cerrado* (hen indirectly it could have a devastating effect &y shifting even more soy farming and cattle ranching to

the region6see my &log #iofuel Could Eat #ra5ilYs Savannas X Deforest the !ma5onB"


37/65

Cerrado 1ey to medial brea1throughs

D Cerrado vital for medial brea1throughs

3Gowan %7

Chris 1co(an is an author and .ournalist (hose interests range across culture, politics, and environmental issues" 1co(an has (rittene4tensively a&out #ra5il, and &een intervie(ed a&out #ra5il &y the ##C, the /e( Pork 'imes, !ir'alk, and various /%R affiliates" 1co(an(as a contri&utor to 'he Encyclopedia of 7atin !merican 8istory and Culture 6Charles Scri&nerYs SonsB" )'he $mportance of #eing Cerrado+#ra5ilYs >ther 8uge, Endangered Ecosystem 0 8uffington %ost 0 =9-9H- 9::2 0 http+??((("huffingtonpost"com?chris-mcgo(an?the-importance-of-&eing-cK&K3:339"html

$f (e lose the Cerrado, (e lose the possi&le medicaland other uses that may one day come from thekno(n and unkno(nspecies of the &iome" $n addition, the Cerrado is a large part of the (atershed for the mighty San Francisco and %araguay River systems,and contains G::,::: suare kilometers of land located (ithin the !ma5on #asin6the total area that drains into the !ma5onRiver system; not to &e confused (ith the !ma5on rain forestB" $f farmers remove the native Cerrado vegetation, ruin its ecosystems, and pourfertili5er, pesticides and her&icides onto hundreds of thousands of suare kilometers there, the !ma5on rain forest do(nstream (ill suffer from

pollution and a possi&le loss of rainfall" #ra5il (ill &e despoiling some of its most important (ater resources" $n addition, Cerrado deforestation isa ma.or part of #ra5ilYs car&on emissions every year, a pro&lem that must &e addressed"

D Cerrado im!ortant to medial brea1throughs

3Gowan %9Chris 1co(an is an author and .ournalist (hose interests range across culture, politics, and environmental issues" 1co(an has (rittene4tensively a&out #ra5il, and &een intervie(ed a&out #ra5il &y the ##C, the /e( Pork 'imes, !ir'alk, and various /%R affiliates" 1co(an(as a contri&utor to 'he Encyclopedia of 7atin !merican 8istory and Culture 6Charles Scri&nerYs SonsB" )#iofuel Could Eat #ra5ilYs Savannas XDeforest the !ma5on 0 8uffington %ost+ reen 0 Septem&er =3, 9::G 0 http+??((("huffingtonpost"com?chris-mcgo(an?&iofuel-could-eat-

&ra5ilsK&KA33AA"html

$n terms of &iodiversity, the outlook isnYt pretty" #ra5il (ill lose out &ecause of species loss, should the cerrado &e furtherdevastated" 'he cerrado, like the !ma5on, can &e a source of important ne( medicinesand chemicals derived from the vastvariety of plant and insect species there, many not yet discovered"$n addition, further deforestation (ill cause soil erosion,damage (atershed, and cause climactic change in #ra5il" $t (ould make sense if soy and cane gro(ers developed &iofuel only on alreadydegraded land in the cerrado, or in SNo %aulo state, as promised in speeches &y politicians, &ut itYs unlikely to happen"


38/65

-e solve /$ orn ethanol

Cuba would su!!lant /$ orn+ethanol

$oligo %&'

et al; Ronald Soligo is a professor emeritus of economics at Rice University and a Rice scholar at the ames !" #aker $$$ $nstitute for %u&lic%olicy" 'he author (rites a chapter (ithin the &ook )Cu&a*s Energy Future+ Strategic !pproaches to Cooperation, a #rookings %u&lication,edited &y onathan #en.amin-!lvarado, %hD of %olitical Science, University of /e&raska 0o&tained as an e&ook through 1SU ElectronicResources 0 page 2G-2H

$n 9::2 the U"S" consumed =="= &illion gallons of ethanol, almost allof itproduced in the UnitedStates" U"S" policyfavors domestic ethanolproduction &y imposing an import tariff of 3 cents a gallon in addition to a 9" percent ad valorem tariff" 'ariffshave limited ethanol imports into the United States, &ut higher prices in Europe have also &een a factor" !s of 9::2, the United States has &een

suffering from an e4cess of production capacity, (hich has depressed prices in the States relative to other importing countries" #ut as higher

/.$. renewable fuel targets 1i1 in and U"S" prices recover from overinvestment in capacity, imported sugar-&ased ethanol

(ill &e competitive (ith higher-cost U"S" corn-&ased ethanol in coastal regions of the United States, even if U"S" tariffs

persist" iven the high costs to transport corn-&ased ethanolto coastal regions from the U"S" 1id(est &y rail or truck" 3= Cubas

loation gives it a large trans!ort ost advantage over both domesti and foreign rivals.


39/65

-arming I real

-arming is real and anthro!ogeni , CH0 sin1s are 1ey.

E> %7Environmental Defense Fund, a US-&ased nonprofit environmental advocacy group, )lo&al 9 are determined &y ho( much coal, natural gas and oil (e &urn and ho( many trees (e cut do(n, as(ell as &y natural processes like plant gro(th" !tmospheric levels of (ater vapor, on the other hand, cannot &e directly controlled &y people;rather, they are determined &y temperatures" 'he (armer the atmosphere, the more (ater vapor it can hold" !s a result, (ater vapor is part of anamplifying effect" reenhouse gases like C>9 (arm the air, (hich in turn adds to the stock of (ater vapor, (hich in turn traps more heat andaccelerates (arming" Scientists kno( this &ecause of satellite measurements documenting a rise in (ater vapor concentrations as the glo&e has

(armed" The best way to lower tem!erature and thus reduce (ater vapor levelsis to redue CH0 emissions .

1P'8 lo&al (arming and e4tra C>9 (ill actually &e &eneficial they reduce cold-related deaths and stimulate crop gro(th" F!C' Any

benefiial effets will be far outweighed by damage and disru!tion .Even a (arming in .ust the middle range of scientificpro.ections (ould have devastating impacts on many sectors of the economy" Rising seas (ould inundate coastal communities, contaminate (atersupplies (ith salt and increase the risk of flooding &y storm surge, affecting tens of millions of people glo&ally" 1oreover, e4treme (eatherevents, including heat (aves, droughts and floods, are predicted to increase in freuency and intensity, causing loss of lives and property and

thro(ing agriculture into turmoil" Even though higher levels of C>9 can act as a plant fertili5er under some conditions, scientists no( thinkthat the C>9 fertili5ation effect on crops has &een overstated; in natural ecosystems, the fertili5ation effect can diminish after afe( years as plants acclimate" Furthermore, increased C>9 may &enefit undesira&le, (eedy species more than desira&le species" 8igher levels ofC>9 have already caused ocean acidification, and scientists are (arning of potentially devastating effects on marine life and fisheries" 1oreover,higher levels of regional o5one 6smogB, a result of (armer temperatures, could (orsen respiratory illnesses" 7ess developed countries and naturalecosystems may not have the capacity to adapt" 'he notion that there (ill &e regional )(inners and )losers in glo&al (arming is &ased on a(orld-vie( from the =2:*s" 9 into the atmosphere than (as ever released in hundreds of thousands

of years" This buildu! of CH0 is the biggest ause of global warming" Since =H2, scientists have kno(n that C>9 and othergreenhouse gases trap heat and (arm the earth" !s the (arming has intensified over the past three decades, scientific scrutiny has increased along(ith it" Scientists have considered and ruled out other, natural e4planations such as sunlight, volcanic eruptions and cosmic rays" 6$%CC 9::=B'hough natural amounts of C>9 have varied from =H: to @:: parts per million 6ppmB, todayYs C>9 levels are around @H: ppm" 'hatYs 9M morethan the highest natural levels over the past A:,::: years" $ncreased C>9 levels have contri&uted to periods of higher average temperaturesthroughout that long record" 6#oden, Car&on Dio4ide $nformation !nalysis CenterB !s for previous !rctic (arming, it is true that there (erestretches of (arm periods over the !rctic earlier in the 9:th century" 'he limited records availa&le for that time period indicate that the (armthdid not affect as many areas or persist from year to year as much as the current (armth" #ut that episode, ho(ever (arm it (as, is not relevant tothe issue at hand"


40/65

have survived the vagaries of drought, stretches of (armth and cold and more, entire societies have collapsed from dramatic climatic shifts" 'hecurrent (arming of our climate (ill &ring ma.or hardships and economic dislocations untold human suffering, especially for our children andgrandchildren"


41/65

-arming is bad

The im!at is billions of deaths.

Cummins %&'

6Ronnie, $nternational Director 0 >rganic Consumers !ssociation and rganic Consumers !ssociation, )ClimateCatastrophe+ Surviving the 9=st Century, 9-=3, http+??((("commondreams"org?vie(?9:=:?:9?=3-AB

'he hour is late"7eading climate scientists such as ames 8ansen are literally shouting at the top of their lungs that the (orld needs to reduce

emissions &y 9:-3:M as soon as possi&le, and H:-2:M &y the year 9::, if (e are to avoid limate haos , ro! failures , endless

wars , melting ofthepolar icecaps, and a disastrous rise in ocean levels" Either (eradically reduce C>9and car&on

dio4ide euivalent 6C>9e, (hich includes all 8s, not .ust C>9B pollutants 6currently at @2: parts per million and rising 9 ppm per yearB to @:

ppm, including agriculture-derived methane and nitrous o4ide pollution, orelse survival for the present and future generations is in

.eopardy" !s scientists (arned at Copenhagen, &usiness as usual and a corresponding G-H"A degree Fahrenheit rise in glo&al temperatures means

that the carrying capacity of the Earth in 9=:: (ill &e reduced to one &illion people" Under this hellish scenario, billions will die of thirst,

cold, heat, disease, (ar, and starvation" $f the U"S"significantly reducesgreenhouse gas emissions, other countries (illfollo(" >ne hopeful sign is the recent E%! announcement that it intends to regulate greenhouse gases as pollutants under the Clean !ir !ct"Unfortunately (e are going to have to put tremendous pressure on elected pu&lic officials to force the E%! to crack do(n on 8 polluters

6including industrial farms and food processorsB" %u&lic pressure is especially critical since .ust say no Congressmen-&oth Democrats andRepu&licans-along (ith agri&usiness, real estate developers, the construction industry, and the fossil fuel lo&&y appear determined to maintain&usiness as usual"


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A+to Cellulose C!lans

D Cellulose o!tions wont wor1 in /$ , teh and su!!ort arent there.


'his seemingly easy recommendation is, ho(ever, comp licated &y an evaluation of the ec onomic effects that (ould likely result fro m its implementation"


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OONeg starts here


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&NC >rontlines


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>rontline v. $olveny for Ethanol Advantage

D Cant re+build sugar setor , unwor1able land and long+time frame.

$oligo %&'

et al; Ronald Soligo is a professor emeritus of economics at Rice University and a Rice scholar at the ames !" #aker $$$ $nstitute for %u&lic%olicy" 'he author (rites a chapter (ithin the &ook )Cu&a*s Energy Future+ Strategic !pproaches to Cooperation, a #rookings %u&lication,edited &y onathan #en.amin-!lvarado, %hD of %olitical Science, University of /e&raska 0o&tained as an e&ook through 1SU ElectronicResources 0 page =:9

'hree and a half &illion gallons seems unrealistic for the foreseea&le future" 'here is some uestion as to (hether Cu&a could everagain attain the =" million hectares of sugarcane harvested in =2G:, let alone 9 million" !ccording to #rian %ollitt, the =2G:harvest (as achieved only &y cutting cane that (ould normally &e left to mature for another season in order to produce a higher sugar yield in thefollo(ing year" 3H >&viously this is not a sustaina&le practice if optimal yields are to &e achieved" '(o &illion gallons can &e produced (ith aharvested area of ="@@ million hectares and a yield of seventy-five tons per hectare" 'hat area of cultivation is not too far from the average harvest

of ="9H million hectares that Cu&a (as a&le to maintain during the =2G:s and =2H:s" Pet reaching ="@@ million hectares (ill reuiretime and su&stantial investment infarm machinery and restoration of the land, (hich has &een neglectedand compacted

&y the use of heavy Soviet-&uilt harvesting machinery" 'he land (ill also have to &e tilled and ne(ly planted (ith sugarcane" !chievinghigher sugarcane yields (illalso reuire time and investments to acuire or develop higher-yielding sugarcane varieties"Cu&an yields averaged only fifty-eight tons per hectare during the =2G:s and =2H:s, su&stantially &elo( the seventy-five tons per hectare needed

to produce 9 &illion gallons of ethanol" Pet other countries, as noted, have achieved or e4ceeded that yield, and some private Cu&an farmers arereported to have achieved even higher yields of =:: tons per acre" 32 Pields, of course, are a function of other factors &esides cane variety" 'hecondition of the land, access to (ater and fertili5er, and other inputs (ould all need to &e considered"

D Aff ant solve , Castro wont allow sugar+ethanol


'o speak of a Cu&an sugarcane-&ased ethanol industry is, at this point , largelya matter of speculation"3A#ecause ofthe anti-ethanol vie(s ofFidel Castro 6(hohas said that ethanol should &e discouraged &ecause it diverts cropsfrom food tofuelB,3GCu&a currently has almost no ethanol industry" $n the (ords of RonaldSoligo and !my 1yers affe ofthe #rookings $nstitution, )Despite the fact thatCu&a is dependent on oil importsand is a(are of the demonstrated success of#ra5il in using ethanol to achieve energy self-sufficiency, it has not em&arkedon a policy to develop a larger ethanol industryfrom sugarcane"3H'here is,ho(ever, no reason (hy such an industry cannot &e developed" !s Soligo andaffe (rote, )$n addition,Cu&a has large land areas that once produced sugar &utno( lie idle" 'hese could &e revived to provide a &asis for a (orld-class ethanolindustry" ran1 %F8avana-&ased Reuters correspondent 1arc Frank is a former (riter for the %eopleYs Daily


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!driana E" Sanche5, /otiEn, /e(s !gency, 9:==, )#iofuels Fighting for Space in Central !merica and Cu&a,http+??repository"unm"edu?&itstream?handle?=29H?=9G2G?#iofuelsM9:FightingM9:forM9:SpaceM9:inM9:CentralM9:!mericaM9:andM9:Cu&a"pdfseuenceW=

Similar to Central !merica, Cu&a*s potential to &ecome a leader in &iofuel production is su&.ect to speculation , and it (ill&e strongly tied to the energy policy that the island adopts (ithin the ne4t fe( years"'he !ssociation for the Study of Cu&anEconomy 6!SCEB says sugarcane could seemingly provide the ra( material for &iofuel production" #ut tight supplies might &e a

pro&lem " 'he island nation is e4pected to produce only ="9 million tons of ra( sugar" 'his is a very small amount(hen compared to sugar production in the =22:s, (hich (as estimated to reach G million to H million tons per year" ver the past thirty years, ethanol has &ecome a greater and greater factor inthe economics of corn

production, and thus the economy of the 1id(esternUnited States" $n this time period, the amount of U"S" corn production used forethanol hasdramatically increased" $n =2H:, less than =M of the U"S" corn crop(ent to ethanol production"=3H#y 9:==, that amount rose toappro4imately one-third of the annual U"S" corn crop"=32'he success of the ethanol industry has&een one reason=:that much of theCorn #elt==has (eathered the most recenteconomic recession relatively (ell"=9!ccording to the #ureau of 7a&orStatistics, as of1arch 9:=@, /orth Dakota=@6(ith @"9MB, /e&raska 6(ith@"HMB, South Dakota 6(ith 3"3@MB, and $o(a 6(ith ":MB had four of the si4lo(est state unemployment rates in the United States"=3'(o other states (ithsignificant ethanol production, 1innesota and Jansas,=(ere also in the&ottom fifteen states for unemployment"


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providing a certainsource of demand for corn, domestic ethanol production sets a floor on the priceof corn,preventing this type of regional disaster from repeating" !dditionally,the population of the rural 1id(est has &een declining foryears"=H!s %resident>&ama ackno(ledged in a 9:=: speech, in an era of outsourcing anddo(nsi5ing that &egan long &efore the most

recent economic recession, thedomesti orn+based ethanol industry stands out as one of the few setors that is

bringing @obs to rural Ameria and allowing towns that might otherwise die tosurvive "=2For roughly t(o

decades, the domestic ethanol industry has relied on thepromise of continued government support in some form in order to e4pandfacilities

and ratchet up production"=A:For years policy-makers have promotedthe goals of reducing car&on dio4ide emissions, cutting &ack on fossilfuelusage, and reducing U"S" dependence on foreign countries for its energyneeds"=A=!lthough the degree to (hich the domestic ethanolindustry actuallymeets these goals is disputed,=A9it does contri&ute to achieving each goal tosome degree" , Rene(a&le Fuels !ssociation 8ouse Energy and Commerce Su&committee on Energy and %o(er 8earing;>vervie( of the Rene(a&le Fuel Standard+ Stakeholder %erspectives" 6%art >neB; Congressional Documents and %u&lications 0 uly 9@, 9:=@ 0le4is$t is important to remem&er that a central o&.ective in developing a vi&rant and ro&ust ethanol industry (as to increase demand for agricultural

products and enhance farm income" irded &y the RFS, ethanol has &ecome the single most important value-added market for!mericangrain farmers, stimulating investment in agricultural technology and enhancing economic opportunities for rural

communities aross the ountry "'he emergence of the ethanol industryover the past decade has served as an

inredibly im!ortant eonomi atalyst , transforming the grain sector from a stagnating, surplus-driven marketplace to one that is

vi&rant, high-tech, and demand-driven"'he e4pansion of the ethanol industry has cataly5ed su&stantial gro(th in theagriculture sectorYs output, efficiency, and value" 'he role of the RFS has &een to create a certain and sta&le market environment forrene(a&le fuels producers and feedstock providers" $n turn, this certainty has ena&led investment in ne( agricultural technologies, such as moreefficient farm machinery and higher-yielding corn seed" !gricultural gross domestic product 6D%B, net farm income, livestock receipts, and cropreceipts have all hit ne( record highs in recent years, indicating that the net impact of ethanol e4pansion on the agriculture sector has &eenresoundingly positive"


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(- %&56internally uoting Dr" Ienkatesh #ala, chief economist at 'he Cam&ridge roup, a part of /ielsen 0 #usiness


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>rontline versus Cerrado !ortion of Advantage

D Alt ause , Cerrado destroyed by soy and industrial ag

=eare %&&6Fred %earce is a freelance author and .ournalist &ased in the UJ" 8e serves as environmental consultant for /e( Scientist maga5ine and is theauthor of numerous &ooks, including ther #iodiverse Region 7oses round 0 =3 !pr 9:== 0 Pale Environment @A: 0http+??e@A:"yale"edu?feature?theKcerradoK&ra5ilsKotherK&iodiversityKhotspotKlosesKground?9@2@?B

#ut ho( has this &een accomplished 'he ans(er, at least in part, is &y invading a ne( ecological frontier of eual importance &ut (ith much

less pu&lic visi&ility" 'oday, #ra5il*s &ush clearers from agri&usiness are moving across the cerrado,the most &iologically richsavanna in the (orld, (hich occupies a huge e4panse of the high plains of central #ra5il on the !tlantic side of the !ma5on &asin"$n recentyears, the rate ofecological destruction in the cerrado has &een t(ice that in the !ma5on" !nd (hile the ma.ority of the!ma5on rainforest survives, more than A: percent of the cerrado*s former 9:: million hectares has disappeared under the plo(, mostly (ithin thelast t(o decades"'he cerrado has its o(n rich array of unusual mammals, including armadillos, anteaters, tapirs, and maned (olves, as (ell asthousands of endemic vascular plants adapted to drought and fire" #ut (hile the cerrado shares a place (ith the !ma5on on Conservation$nternational*s list of the (orld*s top 9 &iodiversity hotspots, so far the outrage over its devastation has remained minimal" 'his month the#ra5ilian environment ministry claimed that the rate of ecological loss in the cerrado declined &et(een 9::H and 9::2" #ut (hen $ visited theregion last month, no&ody agreed (ith that assessment, and even local environment regulators sa( no end to the land-clearing in sight"'he soilsof the cerrado a comple4 mosaic of grass and (oodland (ere once regarded as too acidic to gro( crops" #ut since #ra5il*s agronomists

&egan applying industrial uantities of lime in the =2H:s, these soils have &een transformed" 'he cerrado no( produces G: percent of#ra5il*s farm output"!s more roads and rail(ays penetrate the once empty interior north of the country*s shiny modernist =2A:s capital,#rasilia, the land rush is intensifyingand land prices are soaring"


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lands%ape was depi%ted with a ?6&m by ?6&m @? miles by ? milesA grid s%ale$ /his model predi%ted that all suitable habitats -oralpine plants would have disappeared by the end o- the %entury$ 4hen the simulation was repeated with a 2'm by 2'm @(2-t by (2-tA

s%ale, the model predi%ted that areas o- suitable habitat would remain -or all plant spe%ies$ /he arti%le suggests thatmigration to new regions and %hanges in living patterns o- spe%ies would ta&e pla%e but thata%tual extin%tion would be rare$ .ther studies %omparing predi%tions o- extin%tion rates witha%tual extin%tion rates have %ome to similar %on%lusions$ %%ording to a high1pro-ile paperpublished in the ournal Nature in 2B, up to ' per %ent o- bird spe%ies would be extin%t by2' due to %hanges in %limate$ /o be on tra%& to meet this -igure, ro-essor 3eith >ennett, heado- geography at Dueen9s 5niversity >el-ast, %al%ulated that about 6 spe%ies would have to have

be%ome extin%t ea%h year between 2B and 2($ 8n reality, three spe%ies o- bird be%ameextin%t$ =e said that many spe%ies are -ar more versatile than some predi%tion models give them%redit -or$8- it gets a %ouple o- degrees warmer than they9re %om-ortable with, they don9t ust die, they move, he said$

D iseases wont ause etintion.

=eters and Chrystal %56Dr" Clarence, Director of #iodefense and Emerging $nfectious Diseases U', and Dr" Ronald, Chairman of enetics 1edicine Cornell,FDC8 %olitical 'ranscripts, )U"S" RE%RESE/'!'$IE C8R$S'>%8ER C> 6R-C!B 8>7DS 8E!R$/ >/ C>U/'ER$/ '8E

#$>'ERR>R$S1 '8RE!', @-=, 7?/B

%E'ERS+ $ think (e have one e4ample from the movement of the Conuistadors to the /e(


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6


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>rontline vs. >ood im!ats

D 6unger related deaths delining

The 6unger =ro@et %F6)Decline in the num&er of hunger related deaths, http+??((("thp"org?reports?decline"htmB

eent studies indiate that 0*''' individuals die eah day of hunger+related auses, according to 'he 8unger

%ro.ect, a glo&al organi5ation committed to the end of (orld hunger" This figure is a signifiant deline from the organi)ationMs

earlier* widely+used estimate of 5alon and Naylor %ther standard e4planations,like ethnic or religious tension, do not stand up (ell under systematic cross-sectional scrutiny" 'he lack of income opportunities in agriculture orin the formal la&or market has &een sho(n to &e an important underlying varia&le, affecting greatly the cost of re&el recruitment 6Collier and8oeffler; 1iguel, Satyanath, and SergentiB" Several authors alternatively suggest poverty and hunger may simply &e a pro4y for &ad government,

and that governance is the causal varia&le 6Fearon and 7aitinB" Most of the new literature rejects the hypothesis that poor people take uparms "because" they are poor relative to their neighbors. In particular, there seem to be no systematic correlations betweenmeasures of income inequality and the timing of civil wars 6Collier and 8oefflerB" here is some evidence, ho(ever, that both lowand unequal per capita incomes cause civil wars to last longer than "normal." 'his prolongation occurs primarily &ecause poor peopleare cheaper to recruit and retain, and &ecause they have relatively more to gain if they are victorious 6Collier, 8oeffler, and Soder&omB" heevidence that civil conflict increases the likelihood of terrorism is mostly anecdotal. Civil conflict sometimes creates (eak states andsafe havens for terrorists 6#annon and CollierB, &utwe can find no systematic scholarly evidence on this point" Civil (ars also create

political and ethnic grievances, and these disputes may spill over into &roader terrorist activities" !lthough Sudan, !fghanistan, and 7e&anon(ould seem to &e cases in point, many terrorists have also come from countries (ithout civil (ars 6Collier and 8oefflerB" For e4ample, anover(helming percentage of 1iddle-East suicide &om&ers have come from Saudi !ra&ia and 1orocco 6%apeB"


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(a1lines , $olveny !ortion of Adv


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Etensions off of >idel wont allow $ugarane;

D >idels shadow is too large , Cuba wont allow ethanol.

>ran1 %F8avana-&ased Reuters correspondent 1arc Frank is a former (riter for the %eopleYs Daily


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(a1lines , Cerrado


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Etensions off Alt Cause , $oy;

D $oy is 1ing in (ra)il , itll drive Cerrado destrution.

Newell %&&%hilip /e(ell is internally citing the


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Etensions , No -arming

D No warming , models are wrong* feedba1s are negative and its ylial

Evans %&&

6David, doctor in electrical engineering, (orked from =222 to 9::A for the !ustralian reenhouse >ffice, an agency of the !ustraliangovernment, designing a car&on accounting system, )Climate models are fundamentally fla(ed as they greatly overestimate the temperatureincreases due to car&on dio4ide, @?9@, http+??((("ted"com?conversations?9@@?climateKmodelsKareKfundamental"html B

'hecore idea of every official climate model+ for each &it of (arming due to car&on dio4ide, it ends up causing three&its of (arming due to the e4tra moist air" 'he climate models amplifythe car&on dio4ide (arming &y a factor of three 0so t(o thirds of their pro.ected (arming is due to e4tra moist air6and other factorsB, only one third is due to e4tra car&on dio4ide" 'his is thecore of the issue" !ll the disagreements spring from this" 'he alarmist case is &ased on this guess a&out moisture in theatmosphere" 'here is simply no evidence for the amplification that is at the core of their alarmism" scillation causes alternating glo&al (arming and cooling for 9 0 @: years at a go in eachdirection" 8aving .ust finished a (arming phase, e4pect mild glo&al cooling for the ne4t t(o decades"

D Aerosols blo1 warming now

(iello %&&6David #iello- a(ard-(inning online associate editor for environment and energy for Scientific !merican- Stratospheric %ollution 8elps Slo(lo&al ceanic and!tmospheric !dministrationYs 6/>!! BEarth System Research 7a&oratory, (ho helped lead the research pu&lished online inScienceon uly 9=" $tYs still (arming, itYs.ust not (arming as much as it (ould have &een" Essentially, sulfur dio4ide gets emittednear the surface, either &y a coal-fired po(er plantYs smokestack or a volcano" $f that S>9makes it to the stratospherethe middle layer of theatmosphere =: kilometers upit forms droplets of diluted sulfuric acid, kno(n as aerosols" 'hese aerosols reflect sunlighta(ay from the planet, shading the surface and cooling temperatures " !nd some can persist for a fe( years, prolongingthat cooling" #y analy5ing satellite data and other measures, Daniel and his colleagues found that such aerosols have &een on the rise inEarthYs atmosphere in the past decade, nearly dou&ling in concentration" 'hat concentration has reflected roughly :"= (atts permeter suared of sunlight a(ay from the planet, enough to o?ffset roughly one-third of the :"9H (atts per meter suared of e4tra heat trapped &y

rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases such as car&on dio4ide" 'he researchers calculate that the aerosolsprevented :":G degrees Celsius of (arming in average temperatures since 9:::"

D Tem!eratures this deade have balaned out+ no hanges

Totty %71ichael 'otty, 9::2 ne(s editor in the


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(arm+ 'he =9 years from =22G through 9::H (ere among the = (armest on record, and the decade itself (as hotter than any previous =:-year

period" ffice, an agency of the !ustraliangovernment, designing a car&on accounting system- Financial %ost, lo&al ther(ise the system (ould &e unsta&le" 'he climate system is no e4ception, and no( (e can prove it" #ut the alarmists say the e4actopposite, that the climate system amplifies any (arming due to e4tra car&on dio4ide, and is potentially unsta&le " $t is nosurprise that their predictions of planetary temperature made in =2HH to the U"S" Congress, and again in =22:, =22, and 9::=, have all proved

much higher than reality" 'hey keep lo(ering the temperature increases they e4pect , from :"@:C per decade in =22:, to :"9:C perdecade in 9::=, and no( :"=C per decadeyet they have the gall to tell us itYs (orse than e4pected" 'hese people are notscientists" 'hey overestimate the temperature increases due to car&on dio4ide ,selectively deny evidence, and no(they conceal the truth" >ne (ay they conceal is in the (ay they measure temperature" 'he official thermometers are often located

in the (arm e4haust of air conditioning outlets , over hot tarmac at airports (here they get &lasts of hot air from .etengines, at (aste-(ater plants (here they get (armth from decomposing se(age, or in hot cities choked (ith carsand &uildings "lo&al (arming is measured in =:ths of a degree, so any e4tra heating nudge is important"$n the United States,nearly 2:M of official thermometers surveyed &y volunteers violate official siting reuirements that they not &e tooclose to an artificial heating source" lo&al temperature is also measured &y satellites, (hich measure nearly the (hole planet 93?G(ithout &ias" 'hesatellites say the hottest recent year (as =22H, and that since 9::= the glo&al temperature has levelledoff "


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Etensions , Not Anthro!ogeni

D $uns!ots ause warming , new isoto!e reords !rove

-atts %&&

6!nthony, 1eteorologist and president of $ntelliur value of the historical solar forcing is remarka&ly larger thanother estimations pu&lished in the recent literature "
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/05/10/new-solar-reconstruction-paper-suggests-6x-tsi-change-than-cited-by-the-ipcc/http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/05/10/new-solar-reconstruction-paper-suggests-6x-tsi-change-than-cited-by-the-ipcc/http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/05/10/new-solar-reconstruction-paper-suggests-6x-tsi-change-than-cited-by-the-ipcc/http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/05/10/new-solar-reconstruction-paper-suggests-6x-tsi-change-than-cited-by-the-ipcc/http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/05/10/new-solar-reconstruction-paper-suggests-6x-tsi-change-than-cited-by-the-ipcc/http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/05/10/new-solar-reconstruction-paper-suggests-6x-tsi-change-than-cited-by-the-ipcc/http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/05/10/new-solar-reconstruction-paper-suggests-6x-tsi-change-than-cited-by-the-ipcc/http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/05/10/new-solar-reconstruction-paper-suggests-6x-tsi-change-than-cited-by-the-ipcc/http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/05/10/new-solar-reconstruction-paper-suggests-6x-tsi-change-than-cited-by-the-ipcc/


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Etensions , >eedba1s are Negative

D =ositive feedba1 models wrong* their im!ats eaggerated

6a!!er %&0

69"1any lines ofo&servational evidence suggestthat this positive feed&ack also has &een greatly e4aggerated" 'here has indeed&eensome (arming, perhaps a&out :"H degrees Celsius, since the end of the so-called 7ittle $ce !ge in the early =H::s" Some of that (arming has

pro&a&ly come from increased amounts of C>9, &ut the timing of the (armingmuch of it &efore C>9 levels had increasedapprecia&lysuggests that a su&stantial fraction of the (arming is from natural causes that have nothing to do (ithmankind"

D Em!iris !roves feedba1s are negative

-orstall %&06'im, (riter for For&es, )$f the 1


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fossil fuels cold turkey"


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Etensions , 3odels >ail

D Hbservational evidene dis!roves limate models

Evans %&0

6David has a %hD in electrical engineering, (orked from =222 to 9::A for the !ustralian reenhouse >ffice, an agency of the !ustraliangovernment, designing a car&on accounting system, Financial %ost, lo&al &servations of the real

climate system are dirty, incomplete, and prone to measurement error" 'he comparisons modelers make &et(een their models andsatellite data aretypically rather crude and cursory" 'hey are not sufficiently detailed to really say anything of su&stancea&out feed&acks in either the models or the satellite data 0 and yet it is the feed&acks that (ill determine ho( serious themanmade glo&al (arming pro&lem (ill &e"
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/06/14/ice_age/http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/06/14/ice_age/http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/06/14/ice_age/http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/06/14/ice_age/


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Etensions , (iodiversity efense

D $!eies loss is inevitable

New $traits Times %&61alaysiaB, Fe&ruary 3, 9::=

Pule rates the loss of biodiversity as the number one environmental risis. The etintion of s!eies that we

1now and donMt not 1now of is ha!!ening at an alarming rate* aused bypollution and the destruction of ha&itats" >ther

crises include global warming * river and air !ollution* destrution of rainforests and even over !o!ulation.

D edundany !revents eosystem olla!se+1eystone theory is wrong

3aser %70Chris 1aser, internationally recogni5ed e4pert in forest ecology and governmental consultant, =229, lo&al $mperative+ 8armoni5ing Culture and

/ature, p" 3:

edundany means that more than one s!eies an !erform similar funtions. "ts a ty!e of eologial

insurane !oliy, (hich strengthens the a&ility of the system to retain the integrity of its &asic relationships" The insurane ofredundany means that the loss of a s!eies or two is not li1ely to result in suh severe funtional disru!tions

of the eosystem so as to ause its olla!se &ecause other species can make up for the functional loss"

D Etint s!eies are re!laed

=almer %70'homas %almer, 'he !tlantic, anuary, =229, p" H@

Students of evolution have sho(n that species death, or etintion* is going on all the time* and that it is an essential feature oflife history" Species are adapted to their environments as environments hange* some s!eiesfind themselves in the

position of islanders (hose islands are (ashing a(ay, and they go under. $imilarly* newislands 6or environmentsD are

a!!earing all the time* and they almost invariably !rodue new s!eies .


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Etensions , iseases won

Cuba Embargo Affirmative - Ethanol Adv and Answers - SDI 2013

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Transcript of Cuba Embargo Affirmative - Ethanol Adv and Answers - SDI 2013