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1NC: Economic Engagement Must be a Quid Pro Quo

A. Violation -- Economic engagement requires a quid pro quoin order to betopical the affirmative must offer something to a target and receivesomething back in exchange. A gift is not engagement.

Haas and O'Sullivan, former senior aid to President George Bush, and BrookingsForeign Policy Studies Program fellow, 2000.(Richard N., Meghan L., ,Honey and Vinegar: Incentives, Sanctions, and Foreign Policy,http://brookings.nap.edu/books/0815733550/html/203.html#pagetop, 1-2)

The term engagementwas popularized amid the controversial policy of constructiveengagement pursued by the United States toward South Africa during the first term ofthe Reagan administration. However, the word appears to mean simply the conductof normal relations. In German, no comparable translation exists. Even to nativeEnglish speakers, the concept behind the word is unclear. Except in the few instances

in which theUnited States has sought to isolate a regimeor country, Americaarguably "engages" statesand actors all the timein one capacity or another simplyby interacting with them. This book, however, employs the term engagement in amuch more specific way, one that involves much more than a policy ofnonisolation. In our usage, engagement refers to a foreign policy strategy thatdepends to a significant degree on positive incentives to achieve its objectives.Certainly, engagement does not preclude the simultaneous use of other foreign policyinstruments such as sanctions or military force. In practice, there is often considerableoverlap of strategies, particularly when the termination or lifting of sanctions is used as apositive inducement. Yet the distinguishing feature of engagement strategies istheir reliance onthe extension or provision of incentives to shape the behavior of

countries with which the United Stateshas important disagreements.

C. Vote Neg

1. Ground requiring a quid pro quo is key to disadvantage links, casearguments, and kritiks based on attaching strings rather than just givingsomething to the target nation their interpretation explodes the topic,destroying negative predictability.

2. Education- debating quid pro quos allows plans with more nuance than

just increasing US contact or interaction- it better reflects the proposals inthe literature

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1NC: Lifting Embargo is not Economic Engagement

A. Definition -- Economic engagement must be tangible- excludes lifting the embargo

Haass, 2000Brookings Foreign Policy Studies director[Richard, and Meghan O'Sullivan, "Introduction" in Honey and Vinegar, ed. by Haassand O'Sullivan, google books]

Architects of engagement strategies have a wide variety of incentives from which tochoose.Economic engagement might offer tangible incentives such as export credits,investment insurance or promotion, access to technology, loans, and economic aid."Other equally useful economic incentives involve the removal of penalties, whether they

be trade embargoes, investment bans, or high tariffsthat have impeded economicrelations between the United States and the target country. In addition, facilitated entryinto the global economic arena and the institutions that govem it rank among the mostpotent incentives in today's global market."

And Increase means to make greater in number.

Dictionary.com Unabridged[Based on the Random House Dictionary, Random House, Inc. 2010., "Increase,"http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/increase]

increase [v. in-krees; n. in-krees] Show IPA verb, -creased, -creasing, nounverb (used with object)1.to make greater, as in number, size, strength, or quality; augment; add to: to increasetaxes.

B Violationthe aff just removes the embargoit doesnt net increase economicengagement.

C. This is a voting issue for -

1. Limitsthe justify having affirmatives that do anything to effect the economy ofother countries but do not force any engagement. This would make it difficult forthe negative to prepare.

2. Effects T is an Independent Voterthe aff gets advantages off of removing theembargo, NOT increasing engagement, proves the resolution insufficient.

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1NC ADVANTAGE CP

Counterplan text: The United States federal government should collaborate with Brazil to develop a more

consistent partnership to encourage the use of ethanol. The United States federal government should work withBrazil to push forward the Doha Round of global trade negotiations. The government of the Peoples Republic of

China should substantially increase its food and medical assistance to Cuba.

Solves the case

Barshefsky and Hill, 8*served as United States Trade Representative, the country's top trade negotiator, from

1997 to 2001. She was the Deputy U.S. Trade Representative from 1993 to 1997 **a retired U.S. Army General and

former commander of United States Southern Command from 2002 to 2004. Hill also served as the Commanding

General, I Corps and Fort Lewis (Charlene and James, US-Latin American Relations: A New Direction for a New

Reality, Shannon ONeila senior fellow for Latin America Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), a

nonpartisan foreign-policy think tank and membership organization. Her interests and expertise include politics

and economics in Latin America and immigration. She is the director of the U.S.-Mexico Initiative at CFR.*1+ ONeil

publishes the blogs Latin Americas Moment and Latintelligence, 2008,http://www.cfr.org/mexico/us-latin-

america-relations/p16279)

Broadening DiplomacyWhile the United States maintains productive relationships with thevast majority of Latin American nations, there are

a few with whichthe United States has strained relations. The Task Force finds that theUnited States must officially

recognize all countries in the region and shouldwork to identify areas of common interest and

cooperation in order to advanceU.S. interests, regardless of the countries political identity; this

includes Cubaand Venezuela. The United States should continue to voice strong support for

democracyand to express concern when it perceives that governmentsare failing to maintain democratic institutions and basic human

rightspractices. But it should not cut diplomatic ties in such cases. By ignoringand isolating certain nations in ourhemisphere, the United Statesreduces its own influence in these countries and precludes dialogue through which mutual interests can be

addressed; at the same time, itinadvertently strengthens the regimes in these countries, as the experiencewith Cuba amply demonstrates.

U.S. relations with Brazil andMexico should also be strengthened and expanded.Deepen U.S. Relations with BrazilBrazil is the fourth-

largest democracy and the ninth-largest economyin the world, and it has become an increasingly important actor notonly in Latin America

but globally. The Task Force recommends that theUnited States build on its existing and welcome

collaboration with Brazil onethanol to develop a more consistent, coordinated, and broader

partnership thatincorporates a wide range of bilateral, regional, and global issues.One crucial areafor

partnership is regional security. Expanding on current peacekeepingefforts, the United States should broaden and deepen

regional securitycooperation with Brazil. The narcotics trade threatens Brazils security,as it is an important transit country

for the European drug market andincreasingly a consumer country of cocaine and other drugs. IncreasingBrazilian involvement

in the fight against narcotics through government-to-government cooperation and joint security

initiatives will notonly ease the U.S. burden in the war on drugs, but will also makeU.S. and

Brazilian efforts more effective.The United States should also work closely with Brazil to push

forward the Doha Round of global trade negotiations. While this wouldmean changing domestic agricultural policies,

U.S. negotiators couldthen aggressively pursue more open markets in U.S. areas of concern .Finally,energy and climate change provide ample opportunity fordeepening ties and securing mutual

economic and environmentaladvantages. Both the United States and Brazil are increasingly turningto LNG to satisfy future

energy demands. The United States shouldwork together with Brazil to develop the LNG hemispheric

market,benefiting both countries energy matrixes. On biofuels, the UnitedStates should pursue a

broader joint policy initiative that promotes thedevelopment of environmentally sensitive

alternative fuels in the regionand around the world.

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CP

We advocate the following counterplan:

The United States federal government should strengthen its embargo on Cuba,

specifically including a restriction on travel and tourism.

This is the best way to solve for government repressioneconomic pressure will spur

civil unrest and regime change.

International Policy Digest, 2013(Time to Strengthen the Cuban Embargo, May 9, International Policy Digest, Online:

http://www.internationalpolicydigest.org/2013/05/09/time-to-strengthen-the-cuban-

embargo/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+internationalpolicydigest+(Int

ernational+Policy+Digest)

However unfortunate it may be, Cuba, in its current state, is a nation consisting only of a wealthy andpowerful few and an impoverished and oppressed proletariat, who possess little to no means to

escape or even improve their fate. Lifting the trade embargo will not increase the general prosperity

of the Cuban people, but it will increase the prosperity of the government.Ergo, the poverty anddire situation of the Cuban people cannot be blamed on the United States or the embargo. No doubt, it has been

a fruitless 50 years since the embargo was enacted. Little has changed as far as democracy and human rights are

concerned. To maintain control, Cuba has managed to offset much of the effects over the years in large part

because the Soviets subsidized the island for three decades, because the regime welcomed Canadian, Mexican and

European capital after the collapse of the Berlin Wall, and because Venezuela is its new patron, according to

Llosa. However,Venezuela is now undergoing a political transition of its own with the recent

death of Hugo Chvez, its president for the past 14 years, and the controversial election of Nicols Maduro.Despite being Chvezs handpicked successor, Maduro only won by a narrow margin and will likely be forced to cut

spending on social programs and foreign assistance in an effort to stabilize Venezuelas dire economic problems.

Therefore, now is the ideal time to take action. Without Venezuelas support, the Cuban

government will assuredlyface an economic crisis. Strengthening the embargo to limit U.S.

dollars flowing into Cuba would place further pressure on the Cuban government and has the

potential to trigger an economic collapse. A change in the Cuban political climate is within

reach. According to U.S. Senator Robert Menendez, Tourism to Cuba is a natural resource, akin to

providing refined petroleum products to Iran. Its reported that 2.5 million tourists visit Cuba 1.5

million from North America1 million CanadiansMore than 170,000 from EnglandMore than 400,000from Spain, Italy, Germany, and France combinedAll bringing in $1.9 billion in revenue to the Castro regime.

This behavior undermines the embargo, which is why the U.S. should urge other nations to adopt similar

policies toward Cuba. A strong and unyielding embargo, supported by the U.S. and its allies,is necessary

to incite political change.Furthermore, Sen. Menendez argues, Those who lament our dependence onforeign oil because it enriches regimes in terrorist states like Iran, should not have a double standard when it

comes to enriching a brutal dictatorship like Cuba right here in our own backyard. If the policy of the U.S. is

to challenge these behaviors, then it must also stand up to Cuba. It would be a disservice to

squander the progress of the past 50 years when opportunity is looming.

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Embargo Solves Promotes Civil Unrest

[ ]

[ ] Economic decline promotes public backlash against the Cuban regime.

Lopez, former professor of political science at the University of Illinois, 2000(Juan, Sanctions on Cuba Are Good, But Not Enough, Orbis, Volume 44, Issue 3, June,

p. 345-362, EBSCOhost)

This growth of civil society is not due to the implementation of enclave capitalism in Cuba.

Members of independent groups are routinely fired from their jobs in state institutions or

enterprises, cannot obtain employment in joint ventures, and are denied licenses to operate

as individual entrepreneurs. Activists depend for their subsistence on family members,

friends, and support from abroad. Survey data show widespread dissatisfaction with

microeconomic conditions, which is leading to louder criticism of the government.(n56) Many

activities of opposition, including food riots, have arisen spontaneously from civil society as

people have reacted to deprivation. Neighborhood residents have joined together to demand that the

government provide them with resources to alleviate critical shortages of food, water,

medical supplies, or other essential needs.(n57) Government workers, as well as self-employed individuals, have resorted to collective action to defend their economic interests

from government abuses.(n58)

Cuban Public Health System Strong Now Focus on Prevention

[ ] The Cuban health care industry guarantees basic health coverageit provides

exceptional preventative medicine for all citizens.

Garrett, Senior Fellow for Global Health at the Council on Foreign Relations, 2010(Laurie, Castrocare in Crisis, Foreign Affairs, 89:4, July/August, EBSCOhost)

The two keys to Cuba's medical and public health achievements are training provided by the

state and a community-based approach that requires physicians to live in the neighborhoods

they serve and be on call 24 hours a day.In the wake of the 1959 Cuban Revolution, more than one-thirdof Cuba's doctors fled, mostly to the United States, leaving the country with just 6,300 physicians and a doctor-

patient ratio of 9.2 per 10,000, according to the Cuban Ministry of Public Health. In response, Fidel Castro declared

public health and doctor training to be paramount tasks for the new socialist state. By the early 1980s, Cuba

led the socialist world-- including its patron, the Soviet Union -- in all health indicators.Between 1959

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and 1989, Cuba's doctor-patient ratio more than tripled,soaring to 33 per 10,000, and health-care

expenditures rose by 162 percent. Cuba today has the highest doctor-patient ratio in the entire

world,with 59 physicians per 10,000 people -- more than twice the ratio of the United States. Cuba is

the world's only poor country that can rightly say that basic health is no longer an existential

problem for its people. Its achievementin this respect is unparalleled. Cuba now boasts more than

73,000 practicing doctors (half of whom work in primary care), 107,761 nurses, and a total health-care work forceof 566,365, according to government figures. About 12 percent of Cuba's adult population is employed by the state

in the health-care sector. Because of economic exigencies that have limited Cuba's access to

advanced technology for diagnosing and curing ailments, the Cuban health system has

focused -- successfully -- on prevention.Between 1959 and 2000, Cuba reduced its infant mortality

by 90 percent, and the number of mothers who died from pregnancy-related complications

dropped from 125per 100,000 live births to 55 per 100,000.

Cuban Public Health System Strong Now Free Care

[ ] Cuban health care is exceptionaleveryone has access to a doctor and

coverage is free.

Campion, M.D. & Morrissey, Ph.D., 2013(Edward & Stephen, A Different Model Medical Care in Cuba New England Journal of Medicine, Online:

http://www.sld.cu/galerias/pdf/sitios/santiagodecuba/nejmp1215226_1.pdf)

Internet access is virtually nonexistent. And the Cuban health care systemalso seems unreal. There are too

many doctors. Everybody has a family physician. Everything is free,totally free and not after prior approval or

some copay. The whole system seems turned upside down. It is tightly organized, and the first priority is

prevention.Although Cuba has limited economic resources, its health care system has solved

some problems that ours has not yet managed to address.Family physicians, along with their

nurses and other health workers, are responsible for delivering primary care and preventive

services to their panel of patientsabout 1000 patients per physician in urban areas. All care delivery

is organized at the local level, and the patients and their caregivers generally live in the same

community.The medical records in cardboard folders are simple and handwritten, not unlike those we used in

the United States 50 years ago. But the system is surprisingly information-rich and focused on

population health.

PUBLIC HEALTH CARE SYSTEM

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Lifting Embargo Hurts Healthcare Healthcare Workers Leave

[ ] Easing the embargo would cause Cuban healthcare professionals to leave the

countrythis would collapse the public healthcare system.

Garrett, Senior Fellow for Global Health at the Council on Foreign Relations, 2010(Laurie, Castrocare in Crisis, Foreign Affairs, 89:4, July/August, EBSCOhost)

According to Steven Ullmann of the University of Miami's Cuba Transition Project, if Washington lifts its

embargo, Cuba can expect a mass exodus of health-care workers and then the creation of a

domestic health system with two tiers, one private and one public. The system'slower, public

tier would be at risk of complete collapse.Ullmann therefore suggests "fostering this [public] systemthrough partnerships and enhanced compensation of personnel." He also argues that officials in both governments

should "limit out-migration of scientific brainpower from the country." Properly handled, the transition could leave

Cuba with a mixed health-care economy -- part public, part locally owned and private, and part outsourced and

private -- that could compensate Cuban physicians, nurses, and other health-care workers enough to keep them in

the country and working at least part time in the public sector. The only U.S. policy currently in place, however,

encourages Cuban physicians to immigrate to the United States. In 2006, the U.S. Department of HomelandSecurity created a special parole program under which health-care workers who defect from Cuba are granted

legal residence in the United States while they prepare for U.S. medical licensing examinations. An estimated 2,000

physicians have taken advantage of the program. Although few have managed to gain accreditation as U.S.

doctors, largely due to their poor English-language skills and the stark differences between Cuban and U.S. medical

training, many now work as nurses in Florida hospitals. The Castro government,meanwhile, is in a

seemingly untenable position.The two greatest achievements of the Cuban Revolution -- 100 percent

literacy and quality universal health care -- depend on huge streams of government spending.

If Washington doeseventually start to normalize relations, plugging just a few holes in the

embargo wall would require vast additional spending by the Cuban government. The

government would have to pay higher salariesto teachers, doctors, nurses, and technicians; strengthen

the country's deteriorating infrastructure; and improve working conditions for common workers. To bolster itshealth-care infrastructure and create incentives for Cuban doctors to stay in the system, Cuba

will have to find external supportfrom donors, such as the United Nations and the U.S. Agency for

International Development. But few sources will support Havana with fundingas long as the regimerestricts the travel of its citizens.

AT: GOVERNMENT REPRESSION

All economic benefits of engagement would flow to the governmentgiving it more

power to repress its people.

Radosh, adjunct fellow at the Hudson Institute, 2013(Ron, Ron Radosh: The Time to Help Cubas Brave Dissidents Is Now- Why the Embargo Must Not be Lifted,

March 20th

, Online:http://interamericansecuritywatch.com/ron-radosh-the-time-to-help-cubas-brave-dissidents-

is-now-why-the-embargo-must-not-be-lifted/)

http://interamericansecuritywatch.com/ron-radosh-the-time-to-help-cubas-brave-dissidents-is-now-why-the-embargo-must-not-be-lifted/http://interamericansecuritywatch.com/ron-radosh-the-time-to-help-cubas-brave-dissidents-is-now-why-the-embargo-must-not-be-lifted/http://interamericansecuritywatch.com/ron-radosh-the-time-to-help-cubas-brave-dissidents-is-now-why-the-embargo-must-not-be-lifted/http://interamericansecuritywatch.com/ron-radosh-the-time-to-help-cubas-brave-dissidents-is-now-why-the-embargo-must-not-be-lifted/

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What these liberals and leftists leave out is that this demand lifting the embargois also the number one

desire of the Cuban Communists. In making it the key demand , these well-meaning (at least some of them)

liberals echo precisely the propaganda of the Cuban government, thereby doing the Castro brothers

work for them here in the United States.And, as we know, many of those who call for this actually

believe that the Cuban government is on the side of the people, and favor the Cuban Revolution

which they see as a positive role model for the region. They have always believed, since the 1960s of theiryouth, that socialism in Cuba has pointed the way forward to development and liberty based on the kind of

socialist society they wish could exist in the United States. Another brave group of Cuban opponents of the regime

has actually taped a television interview filmed illegally in Havana. Young Cuban democracy leader Antonio

Rodiles, an American support group called Capitol Hill Cubans has reported, has just released the latest episode

of his civil society project Estado de Sats (filmed within Cuba), where he discusses the importance U.S. sanctions

policy with two of Cubas most renowned opposition activists and former political prisoners, Guillermo Farias and

Jose Daniel Ferrer. The argument they present is aimed directly at those on the left in the United States, some

of whom think they are helping democracy in Cuba by calling for an end to the embargo.In strong and

clear language, the twodissidents say the following:If at this time, the [economic] need of the Cuban

government is satisfied through financial credits and the lifting of the embargo, repression would

increase, it would allow for a continuation of the Castros society, totalitarianism would strengthen its

holdand philosophically, it would just be immoral If you did an opinion poll among Cuban opposition

activists, the majority would be in favor of not lifting the embargo.

US/LA RELATIONS] US relations to Latin America are resilient and high nowwe still have significant

economic influence in the region.

Duddy, former US ambassador to Venezuela and Mora, former Assistant Secretary of

Defense, 2013(Patrick and Frank, Latin America: Is US Influence Waning?, Miami Herald, May 1

st, Online:

http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/05/01/3375160/latin-america-is-us-influence.html)

While it is true that other countries are important to the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean, it is also

still true that the United States is by far the largest and most important economic partner of the

region and trade is growing even with those countries with which we do not have free trade

agreements.An area of immense importance to regional economies that we often overlook is the exponentialgrowth in travel, tourism and migration. It is commonplace to note the enormous presence of foreign students in

the United States but in 2011, according to the Institute of International Education, after Europe, Latin America

was the second most popular destination for U.S. university students. Hundreds of thousands of U.S. tourists travel

every year to Latin America and the Caribbean helping to support thousands of jobs. From 2006-2011 U.S.

non-government organizations, such as churches, think tanks and universities increased thenumber of partnerships with their regional cohorts by a factor of four. Remittances to Latin

America and the Caribbean from the United States totaled $64 billion in 2012.Particularly for

the smaller economies of Central America and the Caribbean these flows can sometimes

constitute more than 10 percent of gross domestic product.Finally, one should not

underestimate the resiliency of U.S. soft power in the region. The power of national

reputation, popular culture, values and institutions continues to contribute to U.S. influence

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in ways that are difficult to measure and impossible to quantify. Example: Despite 14 years ofstrident anti-American rhetoric during the Chvez government, tens of thousand of Venezuelans apply for U.S.

nonimmigrant visas every year, including many thousands of Chvez loyalists. Does this mean we can feel

comfortable relegating U.S. relations with the hemisphere to the second or third tier of our international

concerns? Certainly not. We have real and proliferating interests in the region. As the president and his team head

to Mexico and Costa Rica, it is important to recognize the importance of our ties to the region. We have many

individual national partners in the Americas. We dont need a new template for relations with thehemisphere as a whole or another grand U.S.-Latin America strategy. A greater commitment to

work more intensely with the individual countries on the issues most relevant to them would be appropriate. The

United States still has the economic and cultural heft in the region to play a fundamental role

and to advance its own interests.

1NC China DA

Chinese leading party is turning to Cuba to insure economic growth

Global Times, 2013(6/2/2013, Global Times, Senior CPC official looks to expansion of China -Cuba cooperation,

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/786078.shtml#.Ube0__nvu9E)

A senior Communist Party of China (CPC) official said in Havana Saturday China was willing to expand

cooperation with Cuba in various fields to promote both countries' economic development.Cuba was the first Latin American country to establish diplomatic ties with China, GuoJinlong, a member of thePolitical Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, said when he met Mercedes Lopez Acea, vice president of the

Cuban Council of State and first secretary of the Havana Provincial Committee of the Cuban Communist Party

(CCP).

Guo said the CPC was ready to maintain high-level exchanges with the CCP and share experience in

state governance and party building.

As twin cities and capitals, Beijing was willing to work jointly with Havana to deepen cooperation and

expand cultural and people-to-people exchanges, said Guo, who is also secretary of the CPC Beijing

Municipal Committee.Lopez said the relationship between Cuba and China, which was based on mutual understanding and mutual

respect, had become a model of bilateral ties.

Each country faced the task of building socialism with its own national characteristics, she said, addingCuba was ready to further boost exchanges and cooperation with China.

Guo also met Ricardo Cabrisas Ruiz, vice president of the Cuban Council of Ministers, on Thursday

afternoon.A CPC delegation led by Guo arrived here Thursday. He will also visit Brazil.

Cuba engagement by the United States reverses Chinese dominance

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Luko, National Council For Soviet East European Research, the Smithsonian Institute, 2011(James, China's Moves on Cuba Need to Be Stopped, 6/29,http://www.nolanchart.com/article8774-chinas-

moves-on-cuba-need-to-be-stopped.html)

The Red Dragon takes another wide step of not only flexing its muscles in Asia, but now wishes to supplant Russias

and (former USSRs) forward base presence 90 miles from the United States- CUBA. Cuba is China's biggesttrade partnerin the Caribbean region, while China is Cuba's second-largest trade partner after Venezuela. Over

the past decade, bilateral trade increasedfrom $440 million in 2001 to $1.83 billion in 2010. [1] In 2006 China

and Cuba discussed offshore oil deals and now China's National Petroleum Corporation is a major player in

Cuban infrastructure improvements. [ibid] In 2008, none other than China's President himself, Hu JinTao visited

Cubawith a sweet package of loans, grants and trade deals. If Cuba becomes a 'client' state of China, it will

be a source of leverage against Americawhenever the U.S. Pressures China on Tibet and Taiwan. Soon we willwitness the newly constructed blue-water navy of China cruising Cuba's coast in protection of their trade routes

and supply of natural resources. In 2003 it was reported that Chinese personnel were operating at least TWO (2)

intelligence signal sations in Cuba since at least 1999 ! [2] This month, June 2011, the Vice President of China made

an important visit, extending more financial aid, interest-free, as well as related health projects to be paid for by

China. A client state in the making ! [3] The best way to counter the Chinese in Cuba is to reverse

Americas50 year old, ineffective and obsolete policy of isolationism and boycott of Cuba.The Chinesethreat in Cuba should be the catalyst for the US to establish open and normalized relations , with

economic incentives to re-Americanize Cuba, return of American investments and security agreements. Checking

the Chinese move in Cuba early on is vital to preventing a strategic Chinese foothold 90 miles from

Florida.Allowing China to replace Russia in Cuba would be a strategic disaster. China is dangling financial

assistance and investments in order to establish a beachhead close to the shores of America. This is acounter-response to Americas continued military presence in Asia, continued support of Taiwan and recent

increased American aid to the Philippines in its spat with China over sovereignty of the Spratly Islands. The Cuban

people wish to return to the American fold and re-establish the traditional relationship with the

Cuban anchor in Florida- namely the almost 900,000 Cubans living in Florida alone! [4]

Chinese lead in Latin American economies are vital to maintain Chinas economicgrowth.

Arnson et al., writers for Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars,2009(Cynthia Anderson, Mark Mohr, Riordan Roett, writers for Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars,

Enter the Dragon? Chinas Presence in Latin America,

http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/EnterDragonFinal.pdf)(JN)

Chinas role in Latin America is, above all, based on trade, despite U.S. concerns about Chinas militaryinfluence in Latin America. The major exception to this rule is Cuba, for which China represents a political

relationship as well as one based on economic interests. Although Venezuelan authorities may also prefer that its

relationship with China have political as well as economic dimensions, it is not clear that China has the sameexpectations of its relationship with Venezuela. To China, Latin America represents a significant source of

the necessary natural resources that will help China maintain its economic growth. Due primarily totrade with China, Latin Americas trade volume grew from $2.8 billion in 1988 to $49 billion in 2005. Also, and as

publicly announced, China intends to surpass $180 billion in trade with Latin America by 2010, not only due to

the countrys need for natural resources, but also as a result of Chinas intention to diversify and

expand its markets in the region. Thus, Latin America represents a substantial market for Chinese

goods.

http://www.nolanchart.com/article8774-chinas-moves-on-cuba-need-to-be-stopped.htmlhttp://www.nolanchart.com/article8774-chinas-moves-on-cuba-need-to-be-stopped.htmlhttp://www.nolanchart.com/article8774-chinas-moves-on-cuba-need-to-be-stopped.htmlhttp://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/EnterDragonFinal.pdfhttp://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/EnterDragonFinal.pdfhttp://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/EnterDragonFinal.pdfhttp://www.nolanchart.com/article8774-chinas-moves-on-cuba-need-to-be-stopped.htmlhttp://www.nolanchart.com/article8774-chinas-moves-on-cuba-need-to-be-stopped.html

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Sustained economic growth prevents social unrest that would collapse the ruling party

that would cause great power war.

Kane, PhD in Security Studies from the University of Hull ,2001[Thomas Kane, PhD in Security Studies from the University of Hull & Lawrence Serewicz, Autumn,

http://www.carlisle.army.mil/usawc/Parameters/01autumn/Kane.htm]

Despite China's problems with its food supply, the Chinese do not appear to be in danger of widespread

starvation. Nevertheless, one cannot rule out the prospect entirely, especially if the earth's climate

actually is getting warmer. The consequencesof general famine in a country with over a billion people clearly

would be catastrophic. The effects of oil shortages and industrial stagnation would be less lurid, but economic

collapse would endanger China's political stabilitywhether that collapse came with a bang or a whimper.PRC society has become dangerously fractured. As the coastal cities grow richer and more cosmopolitan while the

rural inland provinces grow poorer, the political interests of the two regions become ever less compatible.

Increasing the prospects for division yet further, Deng Xiaoping's administrative reforms have strengthened

regional potentates at the expense of central authority. As Kent Calder observes, In part, this change [erosion of

power at the center] is a conscious devolution, initiated by Deng Xiaoping in 1991 to outflank conservative

opponents of economic reforms in Beijing nomenclature. But devolution has fed on itself, spurred by the natural

desire of local authorities in the affluent and increasingly powerful coastal provinces to appropriate more and

more of the fruits of growth to themselves alone.[ 49] Other social and economic developments deepen the rifts in

Chinese society. The one-child policy, for instance, is disrupting traditional family life, with unknowable

consequences for Chinese mores and social cohesion.[ 50] As families resort to abortion or infanticide to ensure

that their one child is a son, the population may come to include an unprecedented preponderance of young,

single men. If common gender prejudices have any basis in fact, these males are unlikely to be a source of social

stability. Under these circumstances, China is vulnerable to unrest of many kinds. Unemployment or severe

hardship, not to mention actual starvation, could easily trigger popular uprisings. Provincial leaders

might be tempted to secede,perhaps openly or perhaps by quietly ceasing to obey Beijing's directives. China's

leaders, in turn, might adopt drastic measures to forestall such developments. If faced with internal strife,supporters of China's existing regime may return to a more overt form of communist dictatorship. The PRC has,

after all, oscillated between experimentation and orthodoxy continually throughout its existence. Spectacular

examples include Mao's Hundred Flowers campaign and the return to conventional Marxism-Leninism after theleftist experiments of the Cultural Revolution, but the process continued throughout the 1980s, when the Chinese

referred to it as the "fang-shou cycle." (Fang means to loosen one's grip; shou means to tighten it.)[ 51] If order

broke down, the Chinese would not be the only people to suffer. Civil unrest in the PRC would disrupt trade

relationships, send refugees flowing across borders, and force outside powers to consider

intervention. If different countries chose to intervene on different sides, China's struggle could lead to

major war. In a less apocalyptic but still grim scenario, China's government might try to ward off its

demise by attacking adjacent countries.

http://www.carlisle.army.mil/usawc/Parameters/01autumn/Kane.htmhttp://www.carlisle.army.mil/usawc/Parameters/01autumn/Kane.htm

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1NC Neolib

Lifting the embargo would force liberalization upon Cuba, destroy its domestic

industries, and integrate it into the global neoliberal order.Gonzalez, law prof, 3(Carmen, Assistant Professor, Seattle University School of Law, Tulane Environmental Law Journal, Vol. 16, p. 685, 2003, Seasons of Resistance: SustainableAgriculture and Food Security in Cuba, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=987944, ZBurdette)

Notwithstanding these problems, the greatest challenge to the agricultural development strategy adopted by the Cuban government in

the aftermath of the Special Period is likely to be externalthe renewal of trade relations with the United States. From the colonial era through thebeginning of the Special Period, economic development in Cuba has been constrained by Cubas relationship with a series of primary trading partners. Cubas export-oriented sugar

monoculture and its reliance on imports to satisfy domestic food needs was imposed by the Spanish colonizers, reinforced by the United States, and maintained during the Soviet era.410 It

was not until the collapse of the socialist trading bloc and the strengthening of the U.S. embargo that Cuba was

able to embark upon a radically different development path.Cuba was able to transform its agricultural development model as a consequence of the political and economic

autonomy occasioned by its relative economic isolation, including its exclusion from major international financial and trade institutions.411

Paradoxically, while the U.S. embargo subjected Cuba to immense economic hardship, it also gave the Cuban

government free rein to adopt agricultural policies that ran counter to the prevailing neoliberal model and that

protected Cuban farmers against ruinous competition from highly subsidized agricultural producers in the United States andthe European Union.412 Due to U.S. pressure, Cuba was excluded from regional and international financial institutions, including the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the

Inter-American Development Bank.413 Cuba also failed to reach full membership in any regional trade association and was barred from the negotiations for the Free Trade Area of the

Americas (FTAA).414 However, as U.S. agribusiness clamors to ease trade restrictions with Cuba, the lifting of the embargo

and the end of Cubas economic isolation may only be a matter of time.415It is unclear how the Cuban government will respond to the immense political and economic pressure from the United States to enter into bilateral or multilateral trade agreements that would

curtail Cubansovereignty and erode protection for Cuban agriculture.416 If Cuba accedes to the dictates of agricultural trade liberalization, it

appears likely that Cubas gains in agricultural diversification and food self-sufficiency will be undercut by cheap,

subsidized food imports from the United States and other industrialized countries.417 Furthermore, Cubas experiment with organic and semi-organic agriculture may be jeopardized if the Cuban government is either unwilling or unable to restrict the sale of agrochemicals to Cuban farmersas the Cuban government failed to restrict

U.S. rice imports in the first half of the twentieth century.418

Cuba is once again at a crossroadsas it was in 1963, when the government abandoned economic diversification, renewed its emphasis on sugar production, and replaced its trade

dependence on the United States with trade dependence on the socialist bloc. In the end, the future of Cuban agriculture will likely turn on a combination of external factors (such as world

market prices for Cuban exports and Cubas future economic integration with the United States) and internal factors (such as the level of grassroots and governmental support for the

alternative development model developed during the Special Period). While this Article has examined the major pieces of legislation that transformed agricultural production in Cuba, and the

governments implementation of these laws, it is important to remember that these reforms had their genesis in the economic crisis of the early 1990s and in the creative legal, and extra-legal,

survival strategies developed by ordinary Cubans.419 The distribution of land to thousands of small producers and the promotion of urban agriculture were in response to the self-help

measures undertaken by Cuban citizens during the Special Period. As the economic crisis intensified, Cuban citizens spontaneously seized and cultivated parcels of land in state farms, along the

highways, and in vacant lots, and started growing food in patios, balconies, front yards, and community gardens. Similarly, the opening of the agricultural markets was in direct response to the

booming black market and its deleterious effect on the states food distribution system. Finally, it was the small private farmer, the neglected stepchild of the Revolution, who kept alive the

traditional agroecological techniques that formed the basis of Cubas experiment with organic agriculture. The survival of Cubas alternative agricultural model will therefore depend, at least in

part, on whether this model is viewed by Cuban citizens and by the Cuban leadership as a necessary adaptation to severe economic crisis or as a path-breaking achievement worthy of pride

and emulation.

The history of Cuban agriculture has been one of resistance and accommodation to larger economic and political forces that shaped the destiny of the island nation. Likewise, the

transformation of Cuban agriculture has occurred through resistance and accommodation by Cuban workers and farmers to the hardships of the Special Period. The lifting of the

U.S. economic embargo and the subjection of Cuba to the full force of economic globalization will present an

enormous challenge to the retention of an agricultural development model borne of crisis and isolation. Whether

Cuba will be able to resist the re-imposition of a capital-intensive, export-oriented, import-reliant agricultural

model will depend on the ability of the Cuban leadership to appreciate the benefits of sustainable agriculture and

to protect Cubas alternative agricultural model in the face of overwhelming political and economic pressure from

the United States and from the global trading system.

Reject the aff as a means to create space for alternatives to neoliberal engagement.Munck, professor of Globalization and Social Exclusion, 3(Ronaldo, Department of Sociology, Social Policy & Social Work Studies and Globalisation andSocial Exclusion Unit, University of Liverpool, Neoliberalism, necessitarianism and alternatives in Latin America: there is no alternative (TINA)?, Third World Quar terly, Vol 24, No 3, pp 495

511, 2003, http: //www-e.uni-magdeburg.de/evans/Journal%20Library/Trade%20and%20Countries/Neoliberalism,%20necessitarianism%20and%20alternatives%20in%20Latin%20America.pdf,

ZBurdette)

Taking as its point of departure the position that there are or must be alternatives to neoliberalism , this

article explores the issue in relation to some examples from Latin America. The 200102 virtual collapse of the

economy of Argentinaand the recent victory of Workers Party candidate, Lula,in Brazil highlight, in very different ways, the

need for a viable alternative democratic economic strategy for Latin America .Many progressive analysts seem to be

paralysed by a false necessitarianism which grants more coherence and solidity to the neoliberal project than it

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=987944http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=987944http://www-e.uni-magdeburg.de/evans/Journal%20Library/Trade%20and%20Countries/Neoliberalism,%20necessitarianism%20and%20alternatives%20in%20Latin%20America.pdfhttp://www-e.uni-magdeburg.de/evans/Journal%20Library/Trade%20and%20Countries/Neoliberalism,%20necessitarianism%20and%20alternatives%20in%20Latin%20America.pdfhttp://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=987944

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merits.Argentina puts paid to that illusion.Will the exciting experience of Porto Alegres participatory budget in Brazil now be scaled up to the national level or

does globalisation block this option? Do the old questions of imperialism and dependency now come to the fore again after

being left dormant under the spell of globalisation?We may not have all the answers yet but Latin America is back

in the foreground of thinking and practice around alternative economic theories.

There is no alternative (TINA) was an oft-repeated expression of Margaret Thatchers, used to dismiss any

plausible alternatives to her brand of hard-nosed neoliberalism.One imagines that her friend General Pinochet, with whom she shared tea

during his enforced stay in London, would agree with her. What is more surprising is the influence the TINA philosophy has had on social science analysis of neoliberalism in Latin America since

Pinochet. What I propose is a radically anti-necessitarian approach to neoliberalism, inspired by the work of Roberto Mangabeira Unger.

Things are not always how they are because they have to be so. There is life beyond neoliberalism. There are alternatives taking shape

all the time at all levels of society in Latin America. The so-called Washington Consensus is no longer so

consensual evenin Washington and there is growing recognition that globalisation requires global governance.

We therefore need to return to the rise of neoliberalism and globalisationin a nonnecessitarian spirit

and examine the whole horizon of possibilitiesthat is now opening up in Latin Americaas elsewhere. If the virtual

collapse of Argentina in 200102 shows that actually existing neoliberalismsimply does not work even on its

own terms , the exciting but also challenging prospects now opening up in Brazil under Lula underline the urgency of developing a credible and viable alternative to its policies.

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AT: Oil

(1)Turn - Offshore drilling technology is inherently faultypolitical solutions will

inevitably fail and can at best minimize the damage.

Pravica, Professor of Physics at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, 2012(Michael, Letters: Science, not profit, must lead deep water drilling, USA Today, April 24, Online:

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/opinion/letters/story/2012-04-24/Ted-Danson-oil-Deepwater-

Horizon/54513946/1)

There are a few critical points not mentioned in the USA TODAY editorial on the BP oil spill that should have been

addressed ("Editorial: 2 years after BP spill, lower risks"). First of all, deep water drilling represents a "brave

new world" of oil explorationand novel technology as humans probe depths of water, oil and rock that

sustain thousands of atmospheres of pressure. At these levels, the technology used to drill and extract

oil can easily fail as we approach the yield strengths ofmany of the confining materials subjected to

extreme conditions. There is also a high chance of significant fracture of the cean/sea floor in drilling

and hole erosion from gushing, hot and high pressure oil(along with particulates and other mineral-rich

fluids) that could make repair nearly impossible and could permanently poison our waters.The greatest

lesson from the BP oil spill is that politicians and businessmen cannot solve problems created by our

advanced technology. Only scientists and engineers can. We must listen to them and adopt a more

rational approach to drilling that places safety above profit.

Ocean biodiversity loss will result in a domino effect that threatens human survival.

McCarthy, award winning environmental journalist& editor, 2011(Michael, Oceans on the brink of catastrophe, The Independent, June 21, Online:

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/nature/oceans-on-brink-of-catastrophe-2300272.html)

The world's oceans are faced with an unprecedented loss of species comparable to the great mass

extinctions of prehistory, a major report suggests today. The seas are degenerating far faster than anyone

has predicted,the report says,because of the cumulative impact of a number of severeindividual

stresses, ranging fromclimate warming and sea-water acidification, to widespread chemical pollution and

gross overfishing.The coming together of these factors is now threatening the marine environment

with a catastrophe"unprecedented in human history", according to the report, from a panel of leadingmarine scientists brought together in Oxford earlier this year by the International Programme on the State of the

Ocean (IPSO) and the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN). The stark suggestion made by

the panel is that the potential extinction of species, from large fish at one end of the scale to tiny corals

at the other, is directly comparable to the five great mass extinctions in the geological record, during

each of which much of the world's life died out.They range from the Ordovician-Silurian "event" of 450

million years ago, to the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction of 65 million years ago, which is believed to have wiped outthe dinosaurs. The worst of them, the event at the end of the Permian period, 251 million years ago, is thought to

have eliminated 70 per cent of species on land and 96 per cent of all species in the sea. The panel of 27 scientists,

who considered the latest research from all areas of marine science, concluded that a "combination of

stressors is creating the conditions associated with every previous major extinction of species in

Earth's history". They also concluded:* The speed and rate of degeneration of the oceans is far faster

than anyone has predicted; * Many of the negative impacts identified are greater than the worst

predictions; * The first steps to globally significant extinction may have already begun.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/opinion/letters/story/2012-04-24/Ted-Danson-oil-Deepwater-Horizon/54513946/1http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/opinion/letters/story/2012-04-24/Ted-Danson-oil-Deepwater-Horizon/54513946/1http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/nature/oceans-on-brink-of-catastrophe-2300272.htmlhttp://www.independent.co.uk/environment/nature/oceans-on-brink-of-catastrophe-2300272.htmlhttp://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/opinion/letters/story/2012-04-24/Ted-Danson-oil-Deepwater-Horizon/54513946/1http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/opinion/letters/story/2012-04-24/Ted-Danson-oil-Deepwater-Horizon/54513946/1

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(2)Turn

(a)Saudi would flood the market in response to the plan and crash oil prices

HULBERT 12- Lead Analyst at European Energy Review; Senior Research Fellow, Netherlands Institute forInternational Relations; Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Security Studies (Hulbert, Matthew. OPEC's

Pending Bloodbath. June 10, 2012. http://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewhulbert/2012/06/10/opecs-pending-

bloodbath/)

Thats unlikely to happen, precisely because Riyadh can bring further pricing pressures to bear if it wants to get its

way in the cartel. The Kingdoms policy space has admittedly tightened over the past couple of years, but they remain the only

producercapable of significantly increasing or reducing production at will. Initial tanker data from Europesuggests Riyadh may have started reigning in production that was running around 6% over OPEC quota. Its also raised July benchmarks for

Arab Light grades in Asia. But Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria, Angola and Algeria will want restraint to come far faster and far deeper to firm prices.

The line being spun from the free lunch brigade is that storage should easily cover any Iranian spikes when EU sanctions come into full effect

1st July, while OPEC quotas should be pared down to 29.5mb/d (or less). Cheap words from petro-hawks, not least because theyll all continue

to cheat on quotas to squeeze out every last drop they have. Riyadh knows that of course; hawks want a price floor to be set at $100/b to

sustain political regimes, but to do so entirely at Saudi expense. Russia is no different outside the cartel: free riding 101. Saudi Arabia(and

its GCC partners) might be willing to play ball given ongoing concerns from the Arab Awakening, butwith some budgetary

tweaks and counter-cyclical cash to burn, they could all easily survive at $85/bmaking Iran et al sweat. Tehranmight decide to rip up formal quotas as it did in June 2011, but that would be a costly mistake. If the Saudis let prices fall, political outages

across smaller producer states could help to set a floor for them anyway. Iran would have no say in the matter. Given such pricing

perils, Saudi Arabia holds all the aces to settle institutional issues, not to mention giving the global economy more breathing

space (and Washington greater leeway over Iranian sanctions). But the real reason to let prices falla littlefurther isnt just

to make veryclear to OPEC stateswhere the ultimate volume and pricing power rests, but to fight Riyadhs

bigger battle over the next decade: Retaining 40% ofOPEC market share in the midst of supposedly

huge non-OPEC supply growth. It didnt go unnoticed that despite Saudi production averaging 31 year highs and prices hitting$128/b in March 2012, the forward curve for 2018 was trading at $30/b discounts relative to spot. Youd think with the cartelmaxed out and

proximate demand side problems looking bleak, five year curves would be exactly the other way, in sharp contango (i.e. far above promptprices) once the global economy and demand side fundamentals were fixed. The fact they werent is principally because the market thinks vast

swathes of unconventional production will come online, not just in North America where production is back above 6mb/d, but in Canada, Brazil

and even Arctic extremes. At $100/b that was a fair bet to place, but once benchmark prices drop back to two figures, the 6.4 trillion barrels of

unconventional reserves sitting in the Americas look a far less certain prospect. Canadian tar distinctly sticky; Brazilian pre-salt horribly deep;

Russian Arctic plays simply impossible. So when OPEC meets in Vienna expect Saudi Arabia to call the shots . The new

Secretary General will either be a Saudi national, or a compromise candidate Riyadh can live with.Quotas will stay close to 30mb/d with minor reductions possible. Thinly veiled threats of sustained (or increased) production will be made if

Iran doesntplay ball. Yet the long term price point to watch isnt just one that keeps OPEC in business and

Riyadh in control, but where the al-Saud can maintain secular market share. Letting prices informally

slide to $85-90/b might be the kind of warning shot Riyadh wants to send to scrub unconventional

plays off global balance sheets. Its OPEC colleagues will see that as sailing far too close to the political wind, but a Saudi

bloodbath now, might be just the medicine OPEC requires to sustain its long term health, not unless the cartel isabsolutely determined to keep pricing itself out of existence.

(b)Prolonged dip in prices collapses all producer states, causes political repression

and state collapse, and unleashes wars across the worldHulbert 12Matthew Hulbert is an analyst at the Netherlands Institute for International Relations "The politicalperils of low oil prices" July 9 2012

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www.europeanenergyreview.eu/site/pagina.php?id=3796&id_mailing=295&toegang=49182f81e6a13cf5eaa496d5

1fea6406

As unedifying as all that might be, the bigger problem producer states have is that internal repression has no guarantee of

successthese days.It didn't work for Gadhafi in Libya, and it's unlikely to work for Assad in Syria in the long term. As fierce as the rear-

guard battles have been, theyve not been militarily conclusive or conducive to on-going hydrocarbon

production. Follow that argument through and it is clear that if the bulk of producerregimes were struggling to hang on in a $125/b world, they stand little chance of pulling

through in an $80/b (or less) environment. So we reach the third step, and logical conclusion of our argument. The lower prices go, the more likely

political unrest creates serious supply disruptions affecting physical supplies, with concomitant

effects on paper markets. That obviously puts a radically new spin on what 'cyclical' means as far as

price and political instability is concerned , but when we look across producer states, its hard to find any major playersnot sitting

on a powder kegof political risk these days.More likely than not,it will be some of the smaller players that get

caught in the cross fire first. In the Gulf, Saudi Arabia is already deeply concerned about Bahrainrelative to its Eastern Province. State

implosion in Yemen is seen as an internal issueof the al-Saud to deal with, while serious deterioration in Iraq is becoming

increasingly problematic in the North. Libya could see any post-war oil gains rapidly wiped out,

Sudanese production has already fallen prey to intractable internal disputes, Kazakhstan remains entirely

'dispensable'in Central Asia given a lack of external clout in the region,

while Nigeria has new civil strife problemsto confront with Boko Haram. Thats before

we consider intractable problems in Central Africaand the Horn of Africa .Any one of these

jurisdictions could end up with a scorched earth policyif financing gaps arent closed. Go further up the producer state 'food

chain', and some of the world's largest players all have the same structural political problems, be it in the Middle

East, Eurasia or Latin America . Any sign that a bigger petro-beast is losing control, and prices would

rapidly lift. That might be welcome news for producer states lucky enough to ride the price wave and remain intact, but it's a very dangerous game to play . And that's the

whole problem here - the gap between geological costs of production and the geopolitical cost of

survival is simply too wide for producers to cover without falling back on draconian measures. If this 'self-correcting' mechanism between price and political unrest starts supporting an informal price floor then so be it, but we shouldn't be fooled that this is serving anyone's interests - on either side of the consumer-producer ledger. Yes, it will help firm prices when certain producers struggle

to adapt to rapidly shifting economic conditions, but assuming that more and more producer states hit political problems as prices slip, we're merely cementing the 'too big to fail' status of the very largest oil producers. Seeing petro-states

dropping like political fliesas prices correct isn't a proper 'solution'for a floor, not only because prices will rebound with a vengeance when markets tighten,

but because it will make us even more dependent on a handful of key suppliers. As we all know from previous problems in Iraq(2.9 mb/d), Iran(3 mb/d), Libya(1.48 m/bd),

Nigeria(2.4 mb/d) and even Venezuela(2.7 mb/d), once things go politically wrong , it takes a very long time, if ever,

to get back to optimal production levels. It's the antithesis of where consumers want to be in terms of sourcing plentiful and fungible supplies. Final scene: corpses all

over the stage By way of reminder, as much as petro-states currently face a systemic crisis trying to set a price floor, it was only in March that we saw how badly placed OPEC is to moderate the market at the top. Seeing petro-

states in a pickle might warm the hearts of many right now, but markets can turn, and turn fast. When

they do, the oil weapon will shift target as well. It will no longer be pointed at petro players heads,

but directly at consumer states. That's the consequence of a dysfunctional energy system - not just with a $50-$150/b outlook eminently possible, but swings well beyond that 'price band' all too likely. Splitting

this price directly in two and sticking close to $100/b might not be that bad an idea after all: Mopping

up the mess from producer state implosionwould require an effort far beyond the international

systems capabilities and reach. Carefully agreed truces are always better than outright wars, particularly for those squeamish about collateral damage.

Corpses would litter theentire energy stage .

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Tourism

(1) Turn -Lifting the embargo would turn Cuba into a target for tourists and

business exploitationthis would destroy its environment.

Lovgren, winner of the American Association for the Advancement of Science Journalism

Award, 2006(Stefan, Castro the Conservationist? By Default or Design, Cuba Largely Pristine, National Geographic, August 4,

Online:http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/08/060804-castro-legacy.html)

So what will happen if Castro's regime fallsand a new, democratic government takes root? Conservationists

and others say they are worried that the pressure to develop the island will increase and Cuba's rich

biodiversity will suffer.Barborak said he is concerned that "environmental carpetbaggers and scalawags

will come out of the woodwork in Cuba if there is turbulent regime change. "One could foresee a flood

of extractive industries jockeying for access to mineral and oil leases,"he said. "A huge wave ofextraction of unique and endemic plants and animals could occur to feed the international wildlife

market. And a speculative tourism and real estate boom could turn much of the coastline into a tacky

wasteland in short order.""If foreign investments take a much firmer hold, more hotels will be built

and more people will descend on the reefs," added Gebelein, the Florida International University professor."If the Cuban government does not have a swift policy framework to deal with the huge influx of tourists,

investors, and foreign government interests, a new exploitative paradigm will be the beginning of the end

for some of the last pristine territories in the Caribbean."

(2) Cubas tourism industry caters to racial divisions and promotes ethnics tensions.

Sanchez and Adams, professors of political science and anthropology at Loyal University, 2008(Peter and Kathleen, Janus Faced Character of Tourism in Cuba,Annals of Tourism Research, Volume 35 Number

1, OnlineFree)

In the course of three trips to Cuba, spanning nine years, the authors found that almost all workers at the

front desksof Havana and Varadero hotels oriented towards international tourists were predominantly

white(classification of race is different in Cuba and the United States; many considering themselves as white

would be perceived as black by people in the United States). In a study of racism on the island, De la Fuente

quotes a black Cuban singer as saying,Tourism firms look like South African companiesin the times of

Peter Botha. You go there, and they are all white.And I wonder: Where am I, in Holland? De la Fuente

(1998:7). In keeping with the findings of the authors of this paper, Cabezas also observes that Afro-Cubans are

excluded from front line service positions with direct customer contact Cabezas (2006:513). Certainly,there are Afro-Cubans in the tourism industry and sometimes they occupy key positions, but overall,while they

represent a significant segment of the local population, Afro-Cubans are underrepresented in the

high-level and best-paying positions in the industry. Racial preferences in tourism-related hiring

appear,then, to have exacerbated inequality and racism. This inequality,within a socialist system, threatensto erode domestic support for the Castro government. While they may fear the alternative and still view Castro

positively, many citizens interviewed were often quite critical of the governments policies, and also lamented

their current paradoxical experiences and hardships. Thus, tourism has also increased ethnic divisions on

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the island. Rather than helping build and integrate the nation and strengthening the state, it has done

the opposite in Cuba: yielding more social division and tension.

(3)Turn - Lifting the embargo would allow medical tourismthis wouldoverstretch Cubas healthcare resources.

Garrett, Senior Fellow for Global Health at the Council on Foreign Relations, 2010(Laurie, Castrocare in Crisis, Foreign Affairs, 89:4, July/August, EBSCOhost)

But a lot may change if the United States alters its policies toward Cuba. In 2009, a group of 30

physicians from Floridatoured CiraGarca and concluded that once the U.S. embargo is lifted, the facility

will be overwhelmed by its foreign patients. It takes little imagination to envision chains of private

clinics,located near five-star hotels and beach resorts, catering to the elective needs of North Americans andEuropeans. Such a trend might bode well for Canadians seeking to avoid queues in Ottawa for hip replacements or

for U.S. health insurance companies looking to cut costs on cataract surgery and pacemakers. But providing

health care to wealthy foreigners would drain physicians, technicians, and nurses from Cuba's public

system. Andany such brain drain within Cuba might be dwarfed by a brain drain out into the rest of

the world, as Cuban doctors and nurses leave the country to seek incomes that cannot be matched at

home. Countries facing gross deficits in skilled medical talent are already scrambling to lure doctors, nurses, labtechnicians, dentists, pharmacists, and health administrators from other nations. In 2006, the WHO estimated that

the global deficit of medical professionals was roughly 4.3 million, and the figure can only have grown since then.

As the world's population ages and average life expectancies rise from the United States to China,

millions more patients will need complex, labor-intensive medical attention.And in countries with

falling life expectancies and high rates of HIV/AIDS, donor resourcesaimed at combating the disease

often have the unintended consequence of further straining meager supplies of human medical

resources by drawing talent away from less well-funded areas of medicine, such as basic children's

health care.