Washington State Ocean Energy ConferenceDeep Water Wind and an Ocean Energy Economy

Charlie Brandt, Ph.D.

DirectorCoastal Sciences Division &Marine Sciences LaboratoryPacific Northwest National Laboratory

Bremerton, WANovember 8, 2011

1

Outline

Forces changing the national energy pictureThe case for ocean-based renewable energyResource potential Value creation

Energy, Population, and Economics

Population and economy drive energy demandBoth drivers will continue to increase over the coming decades, though net consumption has not kept pace over past 3 years due to recession

3

http://www.bea.gov/http://www.census.gov/popest/states/NST-ann-est.htmlhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/electricity/epm/table1_1.html

280,000,000 290,000,000 300,000,000 310,000,000 320,000,0009,000,000

10,000,000

11,000,000

12,000,000

13,000,000

14,000,000

15,000,000

3,500,000

3,600,000

3,700,000

3,800,000

3,900,000

4,000,000

4,100,000

4,200,000

Nation’s Electricity Runs on Coal

Nation generated 4,120 TWh in 2010, a 4% increase over 2009

45% of 2010 consumption was supplied by coalConventional hydro remains the largest “renewable” source (6%), although only 72% of its high in 1997

4Data from http://www.eia.doe.gov/electricity/epm/table1_1.html

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Coal Natural Gas

Nuclear Hydroelectric Conventional

Other Renewables Petroleum

Other Gases Hydrogen, batteries

Global Coal Market Drives Electricity Price

US coal price steadily increasing since 2004 due to rise in demand by China and India

Average increase prior to 2003 – 0%/yrAverage increase after 2003 – 8%/yr

Average retail price of electricity shows same trend (R2 = 0.98 for 1996-2010)

5Data from http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epm/table5_3.html and /table4_1.html, Bloomberg Businessweek Dec 21, 2010

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

8

8.5

9

9.5

10

10.5

11

11.5

12

22

27

32

37

42

47

Res

iden

tial

(¢/

kWh

)

Co

al F

uel

($/

ton

)

At end of 2011, China and India will be importing 337 Mmt, 78% increase over 2010 imports. At end of last year, China was paying $129/ton offloaded – Australia and Europe export price was $112/ton

Goals for Renewable Electricity Generation

DOE – 30% by 2030Navy – 50% of shore-based energy by 2020

State Goal Date

AZ 15% 2025

CA 33% 2020

CO 20% 2020

KS 20% 2020

MT 15% 2015

OR 25% 2025

NM 20% 2020

NV 25% 2025

UT 20% 2025

WA 15% 2020

State Goal Date

CT 27% 2020

IL 25% 2025

MA 15% 2020

MD 20% 2022

ME 40% 2017

NH 25% 2025

NY 25% 2013

RI 16% 2019

VA 15% 2025

VT 25% 2025

Data from http://www.pewclimate.org/what_s_being_done/in_the_states/rps.cfm

Ocean Renewable Energy

Hydrokinetic: US DOE’s definition focuses on energy from unimpounded moving water — tides, currents, rivers, wavesOffshore wind: Land-based wind on steroidsOcean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC): exploiting thermal gradients with depth to drive heat engine or “steam”Algal biofuels: Largely marine micro and macroalgae used as biomass feedstock or “biodiesel”

Why Ocean Renewable Energy?

Large renewable energy source, with best attributes relative to demandCoastal resources far exceed total US energy demandHigher/steadier wind speedsHighly predictable waves and tidesHigh productivity

Resource is near load centers52% of US population lives in coastal counties28 coastal states consume 78% of nation’selectricitySimplifies transmission requirements

Reduced environmental effectsLow to no noise and visual impacts (human pops)Few bats and birdsReduced land/sea use conflicts

Significant economies of scaleLarger devicesLarger arrays

Best or only opportunity for utility-scale renewablesin parts of the country

5 10 15 20 25 300

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000CoastalInland

Retail electricity price (¢/kWh)

Po

pu

latio

n

Resource Base – Wave Energy

Greatest potential at higher latitudes

Deepwater (>100m) resource 1-10 TW

Well conditionedPredictableConsistent

Effective for remote coastal communitiesWA / OR / northern CA

Average annual wave power 40-60 kW/m shorelinePotential to provide over 20 GW of electrical energy, on average (over 40 GW in winter – Dec-Feb)Compare to total electricity generation in 2008 for WA/OR/CA of 43 GW

Wave energy data from Fugro OCEANOR, April 2010 and World Energy Council 2007Electricity data from EIA

Resource Base – Tidal Power

Greatest potential above 45° North, Sea of Cortez, and Bay of Fundy to Nova ScotiaNo international assessment as yet – but estimates range from 450 GW to 3 TW

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cmhttp://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/fileadmin/images/data/Products/auxiliaires/m2_amp_fes99.jpg

Resource Base – Offshore Wind

Over 4 TW of extractable power –4 times US generating capacity

Highest wind speeds and fewer competing uses further from shoreBest winds over water depths > 30 m (~100 ft) – Floating Platforms

NREL (2010) Assessment of Offshore Wind Energy Resources for the United States

930 GW

637 GW 594 GW

734 GWGW

California

Great Lakes

Mid Atlantic

Gulf of Mexico

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

0-30 m 30-60 m >60 m

GW

1256 GW

Resource Base – Ocean Thermal

Limited to waters with >20°C temperature differential with depthEstimated 5 TW global resource potential without disrupting vertical structure – Nihous (2007) J Ener. Res. Technol.

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18-20°C20-22°C22-24°C>24°C

Mean ΔT (surface – 1000 m)

PNW Ocean Energy – the Numbers

Offshore wind, wave, and tidal power resource potential exceeds by many times the total energy use of Washington and Oregon

5 GW tidal15 GW wave415 GW offshore wind19 GW total generation from all sources in 2008

Offshore Wind

Wave

Tidal

0% 500% 1000% 1500% 2000% 2500%

2148%

77%

26%

Pacific NW Ocean Energy as % of 2008 Generation

Data from EIA, EPRI, NREL, PNNL

Challenges for Offshore Energy Farms

SitingSite assessments (physical and biological)

Accessibility and reliability of instrumentationIncreased data qualityImproved predictive site measurement

Design environmentsWater depthCurrentsSeabed migrationWind/tidal conditionsWave conditionsSevere conditionsBiofoulingCorrosionIcingSeabed composition

Technical designTowers and foundationsRotors/Turbines/OscillatorsDrivetrainsControl systems

Pre- and post-installationVessels for installation and maintenance

Current wind fleet is European

Active condition monitoringPreventive maintenance

Technology standardsEnsure reliabilityEnable permitting and investment

Transmission and grid interconnection

HVDCBalancing

Adapted from US Offshore Wind Collaborative (2009) US Offshore Wind Energy: A Path Forward

Components of Building Ocean Energy

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Manufacture• Turbines• Rotors• Towers• Foundations/moorings• Cable• Vessels – construction,

cable-laying, O&M

Marine Operations• Turbine & rotor installation• Tower Installation• Foundation/mooring

installation• Offshore substation

installation• Collection/transmission

system installation• O&M

Balance of Plant• Monitoring & control systems• Substation – offshore and onshore• Transmission

Permitting• Environmental• Stakeholders• Compliance monitoring• Compliance control

Siting• Engineering – meteorology,

wave, current, seabed geology, bathymetry

• Environmental – biota, navigation, fisheries, seabed use

• Logistics – ports/vessels, substations, transmission

Utilizing coastal assets in maritime, manufacturing,

engineering, and environmental fields

Manufacturing and Maritime Industries

RenewableUK assessed manufacturing and marine needs to support a “Healthy Industry” development scenario

Delivering 23.2 GW offshore wind by 2020Adding 3.2 GW/yr thereafter

Using 5% of PNW ocean resource, would require

145 installation vessels133 O&M vessels5,200 km HVDC cable1.6M km HVAC cable4,700 km array cable9,000 turbines, towers, andfoundations

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Economic Impacts

Capital investment of $3.7M per MW✝

Rate of return on investment4.4 direct jobs per MW*

$893k/yr economic benefit per MW*

Impact of DOE Offshore Wind Innovation and Demonstration initiative (54 GW by 2030)

238,000 direct jobs$1.56B/yr economic benefit

Impact of PNW ocean energy potential✠

97,000 direct jobs$196M/yr economic benefit

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✝US offshore wind calculated from LBNL 2010 2009 Wind Technologies Market Report and EWEA 2009 The Economics of Wind Energy

* Calculated from IEA Wind Energy 2010 2009 Annual Report and EWEA 2009 The Economics of Wind Energy

✠ Assuming 5% of 440 GW wind/wave/tidal resource is developed

Summary

Energy demand is increasing as a function of economic growthEnergy price is increasing as a function of global demand for fossil resourcesGreatest demand and highest price is within coastal statesWashington has abundant tidal, wave, and offshore wind resourcesOcean energy is a nascent industry in the US; cooperation to resolve challenges is important to sustainabilitySignificant impact of successful ocean energy development on jobs and economy of Washington’s coastal regions

Thank you for your attention!

Slide 19

Charlie BrandtPacific Northwest National Laboratorycharles.brandt@pnl.gov360.681.4594

I would like to acknowledge generous support by the US Department of Energy’s Wind & Water Power Program Office