CTD Coverage - BUY cafe/Bao cao phan... · 2016-12-08 · CTD Coverage - BUY 8-Dec-16 ACBS...

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CTD Coverage - BUY Thursday, December 08, 2016 ACBS Research Department www.acbs.com.vn 1 Tel: (+84) (8) 3823 4159 (ext: 354) Bloomberg: ACBS <GO>

Transcript of CTD Coverage - BUY cafe/Bao cao phan... · 2016-12-08 · CTD Coverage - BUY 8-Dec-16 ACBS...

Page 1: CTD Coverage - BUY cafe/Bao cao phan... · 2016-12-08 · CTD Coverage - BUY 8-Dec-16 ACBS Department 6 Tel: (+84) (8) 3823 4159 (ext: 354) Bloomberg: ACBS  Moreover, as

CTD Coverage - BUY Thursday, December 08, 2016

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COTECCONS CONSTRUCTION JSC (CTD VN)

Top construction competency, expected to keep growing in 2017

Coteccons, the biggest listed contractor, is now capable of constructing the most

complex buildings as general contractor, a highlight is Landmark 81, the highest

building when it completed.

With its professional work style and top construction competency, CTD has built

good relationship with their partners. Therefore, CTD can easily get many big

contracts from the reputable investors.

In 2015-2016, the supply of high-end real estate soared in Ho Chi Minh city and Hanoi

helped CTD to enjoy an outstanding growth. With an estimated backlog of

VND22,000bn transfer to 2017, revenue growth is expected to maintain in 2017.

Low risk from expansion investments

About the expansion investments, CTD is currently bidding and planning and it is

expected to take 2-3 years for the investments to start bringing cash flows for CTD.

In our evaluation, the profitability of these investments is not so high but the risk is

also relatively low. The greatest benefits from these investments is diversification of

income and capturing more profit in the value chain.

Valuation

With the growing proportion of Design & Build contracts in revenue, outstanding

construction competence and management, we can say CTD has achieved

economies of scale and far surpassed its competitors. Therefore, although there is a

bit concern about the number of civil construction contracts which could slow down

in 2017, in the long run, CTD is still a good stock that worth investing in.

We value CTD at VND195,000 at the end of 2017 by using DCF valuation method. We

forecast 2017 EPS and 2018 EPS could reach VND19,926 and VND17,975

respectively, corresponding to P/E forward of 8.6 and 9.5, which are relatively low for

a leader company. BUY.

Mr. Hung Cao (+84 8) 3823 4159 - Ext: 250 [email protected]

Company Update Recommendation BUY

HOSE: CTD

Construction

Current price (VND) 171,500

Target price (VND) 195,000

Expected share price return 13.7%

Expected dividend yield 4.1%

Expected total return 17.8%

Stock performance (%)

YTD 1M 3M 12M

Absolute 54.2 -6.4 -12.8 58.3

Relative 38.3 -4.3 -11.7 41.0

Source: Bloomberg

Ownership

Kustocem Pte. Ltd. 18.06%

Thanh Cong Investment Ltd. 14.54%

Duong Nguyen (Chairman) 4.29%

Stock Statistics 07-Dec-16

Bloomberg code CTD VN

52-week range (VND) 99,750-207,000

Shares O/S (m) 77

Mkt cap (VND bn) 13,203

Mkt cap (USD m) 581

Foreign room left (%) 0.0

Est. free float (%) 85.8

3m avg daily vol (shs) 146,602

VND/USD 22,730

Index: VNIndex / HNX 653.53/79.41

2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F

Net Sales (VNDbn) 13,669 21,593 24,967 22,380 22,330

Growth (%) 79% 58% 16% -10% 0%

EBITDA ( VNDbn) 857 1,591 1,757 1,475 1,457

Growth (%) 218% 406% 339% 72% -8%

Net Profit ( VNDbn) 666 1,385 1,615 1,457 1,575

Growth (%) 103% 108% 17% -10% 8%

EPS (bonus-adjusted, VND) 8,220 17,087 19,926 17,975 19,432

Growth (%) 103% 108% 17% -10% 8%

ROE (%) 23.1% 29.1% 23.7% 19.0% 18.9%

ROIC (%) 49.7% 129.7% 82.5% 36.2% 27.1%

Net debt/EBITDA (x) -2.8 -3.3 -2.9 -2.8 -3.0

EV/EBITDA (x) 10.9 5.9 5.3 6.3 6.4

PER (x) 20.9 10.0 8.6 9.5 8.8

PBR (x) 4.1 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.5

DPS (VND) 5,500 7,000 10,000 13,000 14,000

Dividend Yield (%) 3.2% 4.1% 5.8% 7.6% 8.2%

0

100

200

300

400

500

0

50

100

150

200

250

12/15 03/16 06/16 09/16

Price-VolumeVND '000

'000 shares

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Biggest contractor with high reputation

Coteccons Construction Joint Stock Company (HOSE: CTD) was established in

2004.Housing, industrial construction is CTD’s core business, accounting for over

94% of total revenue. CTD is capable of constructing the most complex buildings as

general contractor, a highlight is Landmark 81, which will be the highest building when

it completed.

CTD has built its credibility with their partners by its top construction competency,

professional work style and cooperative with investors, suppliers and subcontractors.

Therefore, CTD is assigned many largest projects by the big investors such as

Vingroup, Tan Hoang Minh, Phat Dat, Regina, etc. Up to this point, construction

revenue of CTD outperformed other big construction companies such as VCG, HBC.

Source: financial reports and ACBS’s estimation

With ability of picking good investors and monitoring debt efficiently, since 2014,

CTD’s receivables turnover has been much higher than other peers. Operating cash

flow is positive and with its huge amount of cash, CTD also collected interest income.

Source: financial reports

2016*: 4 quarters trailing

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 3Q2016

Construction revenue

CTD

HBC

VCG

VND bn

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*

Receivables Turnover

CTD

HBC

VCG

FCN

SDT

SC5

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Pioneers in Design & Build method

By overlapping the designing phase and construction phase, D&B method saves time,

save cost for investors, add more value to construction company. However, to make

investors entrust and assign D&B contracts, builder must prove their qualification.

Traditional method:

D&B method:

D&B is the trend in construction sector because it has advantages compared to the

traditional Design-Bid-Build methods. Since 2013, CTD has started winning D&B

contracts and the proportion of D&B in revenue has gradually increased over years.

D&B proportion estimated will be 40% of total revenue in 2016 and 50% in 2017 based

on the existing signed D&B contracts.

Source: CTD, ACBS’s estimation

HBC, another big construction company, has also started doing D&B contracts since

2015, though its D&B proportion is only about 15%.

Highlight D&B contracts of CTD: Contract Value

(VNDbn, incl VAT) Year

SC VivoCity 1,120 2013

Regina Miracle International Vietnam 2,420 2014

Masteri Thao Dien 3,648 2015

Everich Infinity 919 2015

Gold View 3,037 2015

Everich 8 1,126 2016

Vinhomes Thang Long 2,813 2016

D’Capitale Tran Duy Hung 4,000 2016

Dragon Bay 1,025 2016 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2014 2015 2016F 2017F

Proportion of D&B in revenue

Concept

Design

Construction Saved Time

Concept Design Bid Construction

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Construction industry’s growth trend

In 2015-2016, condominium construction contributed the most in revenue growth for

CTD. However, this is also a high cyclical segment as it depends much on the

circumstance of the real estate market.

Civil construction: high-end supply surged and oversupply concern

When the real estate market warms up, CTD is much beneficial as the high-end supply

soared. New supply was higher than absorption caused the competitive level in this

segment higher than ever.

Source: CBRE

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 3Q2016

Construction Revenue Structure

Condominium Hotel & Resort CommercialIndustrial Others (+ Infrastructure)

VND bn

Source: CTD

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F

Ho Chi Minh city

New supply Sold

unit

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F

Hanoi

New supply Sold

unit

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Moreover, as State Bank of Vietnam gradually increase risk factor of real estate

business and reduce the proportion of short-term capital for long-term loans, it will

cause credit flow to real estate become more cautious.

Source: Circular 36 – SBV,

ACBS forecast

For these reasons, real estate developers will have to consider more carefully when

decide to continue developing real estate in this segment. New supply will probably

slow down from 2017 as forecast by CBRE.

Affordable housing is expected to grow sustainably because it targets the housing

needs of the majority citizen and the liquidity therefore still be high. However,

developers in this segment is quite small and often construct by themself or use small

contractors. A positive signal is Vingroup - CTD biggest customers - has recently

launched a new affordable real estate brand VinCity and plans to build 200-300

thousand units in the next 5 years.

For the remaining segments, we expect the hotel and resort construction has a high

growth potential due to tourism attraction and steady increase in the number of

tourists to Vietnam.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 11T2016

Number of domestic tourists & international visitors

Domestic tourists International visitors

million

Source: GSO

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F

Risk factor ofreal estate business loans

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F

Proportion of short-term capital for long-term loans

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Industry construction: sustainable growth in long-term

Value of a plant construction usually just a few hundred of billion VND, but its gross

margin is around 10%, higher than civil construction. Moreover, the construction time

is also faster.

Accumulated 11M2016, new registered FDI decreased 10.5% YoY, however we expect

this declining is only temporary due to some recent environmental issues that cause

the local government to tighten foreign investment.

Disbursed FDI is still stably growing 8.3% YoY. There is still much room for new

industrial construction as the occupancy rate of all the industrial parks is only around

50%. Therefore, in long-term, industrial construction is expected to grow steadily.

Infrastructure construction: unexploited rich land for CTD

Vietnam's infrastructure is quite far behind other countries in region such as Thailand,

Singapore, Malaysia. Infrastructure development needs are still enormous and the

State encourages private investment. Therefore, CTD’s expansion to infrastructure

construction segment is an appropriate orientation.

A road/bridge construction project is usually around VND1,000-5,000bn, easier to

build and has a slightly higher gross profit margin than tall building construction.

Construction time is about 2 years.

So far, CTD has only constructed one infrastructure project which is1A Highway

construction &improvement in Phu Ly city of Ha Nam province. FCC, which CTD owns

35%, is the investor. Construction revenue of this project is around VND700bn. FCC

operates with BOT form, collect fees for 16 years, starting from 24 Nov 2016.

Therefore, in addition to infrastructure construction revenue, CTD also has a 35%

profit from FCC.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 11T2016

FDI in Vietnam

Registration Disbursement

USD bn

Source: FIA

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Effectiveness of expansion investments

With the expansion orientation to decrease the dependence on the construction

segment, CTD will invest in other business which has stable income. Due to CTD’s

conservative financial policy, whenever in need of capital to invest, CTD will issue

shares instead of borrowing debt. In November, CTD has successfully issued

11,476,751 shares to strategic shareholders with an average price of VND153,520,

collected VND1,762bn.

Although the private placement caused dilution but in return shareholders will not

incur financial risk as CTD is operating in a high cyclical industry. Moreover, the

proceed, if invested efficiently, will help increasing the share value. We do a brief

assessment of the risks and profitability of the planned investments as follows.

Infrastructure investments:

BOT form: this segment provides a stable cash flow for investors in 20-30 years so

investors typically use 80-90% debt. Therefore, CTD’s contributed capital will not be

much. Return on equity of BOT projects are typically around 10-12% and risk is quite

low.

BT form: the investors will be in exchange for the land right in line with the

infrastructure construction process. Owning land plots with areasonable cost is a big

advantage for investors when developing future projects. Investors can also choose

to receive cash with a margin of about 10%.

Real estate investments:

Housing, hotel: with the land information advantage, CTD can participate/repurchase

those apartments, hotels in the projects which CTD constructed, if there are good

opportunities. CTD has sold 80 apartments in Masteri Thao Dien and expects to

record a good profit in 4Q2016.

Office rental: CTD has operating this segment long ago but it just contributes

modestly to revenue. In the future, CTD plans to repurchase some office buildings,

which also located in the CTD’s construction projects. Office rental can bring stable

cash flow, but the rental yield is not high, only about 5-7%.

M&A in value chain:

These investments will be served for CTD’s core business, which is construction.

Because CTD construct in D&B method, acquiring the companies that manufacture

furniture, construction materials will increase construction value of CTD.

In summary, we evaluate profitability of these investments is not so high, but the risk

is also relatively low in return. The greatest benefits from these investments is

diversification of income and ability to capture more profit in the value chain of CTD.

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Forecast and valuation

In 2015-2016, the supply of high-end real estate soared in Ho Chi Minh city and Hanoi

helped CTD enjoyed an outstanding growth. We expect this trend is very difficult to

continue in 2017 and it would adversely affect the construction revenue of CTD.

However, with an estimated backlog of VND22,000bn transfer to, revenue in 2017 still

have room to grow. We expect revenue to drop in 2018.

Construction material prices (mainly steel) recovery could cause gross margin to

slightly decrease compared to the beginning of this year. With an increasing

proportion of revenue coming from D&B contracts, we expect the gross margin will

maintain at 8.5% in long term.

About the expansions, CTD is currently still bidding and planning so there are not many

details. Moreover, it takes 2-3 years for the investments to start bringing cash flows

for CTD. Therefore, we have not reflected on the pricing model and construction will

still be the main operation of CTD.

With the growing of D&B contracts value, outstanding construction competence and

management, we can say CTD has achieved economies of scale and far surpassed its

competitors. Therefore, although there is a bit concern about the number of civil

construction contracts that could slow down in 2017, in the long run, CTD is still good

stocks that worth investing in.

We value CTD at VND195,000 at the end of 2017 by using DCF valuation method. We

forecast 2017 EPS and 2018 EPS could reach VND19,926 and VND17,975 respectively,

corresponding to P/E forward of 8.6 and 9.5 for 2017 and 2018, which is relatively low

for a leader company. BUY.

DCF VALUATION 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F

NOPAT 1,229 1,355 1,123 1,101 1,164

FCFF 1,044 1,072 837 797 842

Discount factor 1.00 0.87 0.76 0.66

PV of given year's FCFF 1,072 728 603 554

Terminal growth rate 5%

PV of terminal value 5,815

Cash & Investments 6,270

Equity value 15,041

Number of shares (m) 76.98

DCF valuation per share (PLN) 195,000

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CTD FINANCIALS MODEL Mkt Price

(VND): 171,500

Target (VND):

195,000 Mkt cap

(VNDbn): 13,203

(VND bn except where stated) 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F

Total Net Sales 13,669 21,593 24,967 22,380 22,330 23,534

Sales growth (%) 79.1% 58.0% 15.6% -10.4% -0.2% 5.4%

Construction 13,229 21,219 24,728 22,117 22,041 23,216

Property investment 24 183 29 32 35 39

Equipment renting 12 16 18 20 22 24

Trading 404 174 192 211 232 255

CoGS ex-dep'n 12,512 19,624 22,754 20,403 20,348 21,441

SG&A 363 435 522 575 603 634

SG&A as % of sales 2.7% 2.0% 2.1% 2.6% 2.7% 2.7%

EBITDA 857 1,591 1,757 1,475 1,457 1,544

EBITDA margin (%) 6.3% 7.4% 7.0% 6.6% 6.5% 6.6%

Depreciation 45 54 63 72 80 89

Operating profit 812 1,537 1,694 1,404 1,377 1,455

Operating profit margin (%) 5.9% 7.1% 6.8% 6.3% 6.2% 6.2%

Net interest expense -101 -169 -297 -264 -245 -264

as % of avg net debt 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8%

Profit from associates 14 20 22 122 278 278

Tax 194 341 398 334 324 344

Effective tax rate (%) 21.2% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%

Minority interest 67 0 0 0 0 0

Net profit 666 1,385 1,615 1,457 1,575 1,654

Net profit margin (%) 4.9% 6.4% 6.5% 6.5% 7.1% 7.0%

Cash earnings 711 1,439 1,678 1,528 1,655 1,742

Number of shares (m) 47 77 77 77 77 77

EPS (VND) 13,524 17,087 19,926 17,975 19,432 20,406

Bonus factor (x) 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Adjusted EPS (VND) 8,220 17,087 19,926 17,975 19,432 20,406

EPS growth (%) 103.5% 107.9% 16.6% -9.8% 8.1% 5.0%

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KEY CASHFLOW AND BS ITEMS 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F

Increase in working capital -1,159 105 116 127 140 154

Capex 241 65 150 158 165 174

Other cashflow items -225 -73 -1,000 -1,500 0 0

Free cash flow 1,404 1,195 412 -257 1,349 1,415

Share issues (m) 46 1,893 0 0 0 0

Dividends paid 158 257 539 770 1,001 1,078

Increase in net debt -1,292 -2,831 127 1,026 -349 -337

Net debt, end of year -2,390 -5,221 -5,094 -4,067 -4,416 -4,753

Shareholders' equity 3,243 6,263 7,339 8,025 8,599 9,175

BVPS (VND) 69,298 81,353 95,327 104,248 111,703 119,183

Net debt / equity (%) -73.7% -83.4% -69.4% -50.7% -51.4% -51.8%

Net debt / EBITDA (x) -2.8 -3.3 -2.9 -2.8 -3.0 -3.1

Total assets 7,815 13,666 14,615 14,276 15,198 16,111

KEY RETURN AND VALUATION RATIOS 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F

ROE (%) 23.1% 29.1% 23.7% 19.0% 18.9% 18.6%

ROA (%) 10.5% 12.9% 11.4% 10.1% 10.7% 10.6%

ROIC (%) 49.7% 129.7% 82.5% 36.2% 27.1% 27.1%

WACC (%) 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%

EVA (%) 34.7% 114.7% 67.5% 21.2% 12.1% 12.1%

PER (x) 20.9 10.0 8.6 9.5 8.8 8.4

EV/EBITDA (x) 10.9 5.9 5.3 6.3 6.4 6.0

EV/FCF (x) 6.6 7.8 22.6 -36.3 6.9 6.6

PBR (x) 4.1 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4

PSR (x) 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6

EV/sales (x) 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Dividend yield (%) 3.2% 4.1% 5.8% 7.6% 8.2% 8.2%

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CONTACTS

Ho Chi Minh City Head Office 41, Mac Dinh Chi, Dist. 1, Ho Chi Minh City Tel: (+84 8) 3823 4159 Fax: (+84 8) 3823 5060

Hanoi Office 10 Phan Chu Trinh, HoanKiem Dist., Ha Noi Tel: (+84 4) 3942 9395 Fax: (+84 4)3942 9407

RESEARCH DEPARMENT

Director – Head of Research Anh Le (+84 8) 3823 4159 (x354) [email protected]

Manager – Industry Coverage Uyen Nguyen (+84 8) 3823 4159 (x303) [email protected]

Associate – Consumer-related, Technology Chi Luong (+84 8) 3823 4159 (x327) [email protected]

Associate – Steel, Logistics, Agri, Power Yen Tran (+84 8) 3823 4159 (x326) [email protected]

Associate– Property Truc Pham (+84 8) 3823 4159 (x303) [email protected]

Analyst – Oil & Gas Hung Phan (+84 8) 3823 4159 (x354) [email protected]

Analyst – Consumer-related, Technology Trung Tran (+84 8) 3823 4159 (x351) [email protected] Analyst – Macro Vi Phuc Tran (+84 8) 3823 4159 (x250) [email protected]

Analyst – Steel, Power Cuong Nguyen (+84 8) 3823 4159 (x250) [email protected]

Analyst – Property, Plastic, ETF Hung Vu (+84 8) 3823 4159 (x323) [email protected]

Analyst – Property Hung Cao (+84 8) 38234159 (x250) [email protected]

INSTITUTIONAL CLIENT DIVISION

Director - Head of Institutional Client Tyler Cheung (+84 8) 54 043 070 [email protected]

Senior Associate Institutional Client Hung Dang (+84 8) 3823 4798 [email protected]

Senior Associate Institutional Client Diep Phan (+84 8) 3823 4159 (x307) [email protected]

Manager - Trading Hanh Huynh (+84 8) 5404 6632 [email protected]

Senior Trader Ngoc Dinh (+84 8) 5404 6626 [email protected]

Trader Nghia Le (+84 8) 3823 4160 (x311) [email protected]

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DISCLAIMER

Our Recommendation System

BUY:where we believe prospective 12 month VND total return (including dividends) will be 15% or more.

HOLD:where we believe it will be -15% to 15%.

SELL:where we believe it will be lower than -15%.

Analyst Certification(s)

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