csx 3Q 08
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Transcript of csx 3Q 08
11
Third Quarter 2008Earnings Conference CallThird Quarter 2008Earnings Conference Call
22
Forward-Looking DisclosureForward-Looking Disclosure
This information and other statements by the company contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act with respect to, among other items: projections and estimates of earnings, revenues, cost-savings, expenses, or other financial items; statements of management’s plans, strategies and objectives for future operation, and management’s expectations as to future performance and operations and the time by which objectives will be achieved; statements concerning proposed new products and services; and statements regarding future economic, industry or market conditions or performance. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words or phrases such as “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “project,” “estimate” and similar expressions.
Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and the company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement. If the company does update any forward-looking statement, no inference should be drawn that the company will make additional updates with respect to that statement or any other forward-looking statements.
Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, and actual performance or results could differ materially from that anticipated by these forward-looking statements. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by these forward-looking statements include, among others: (i) the company’s success in implementing its financial and operational initiatives; (ii) changes in domestic or international economic or business conditions, including those affecting the rail industry (such as the impact of industry competition, conditions, performance and consolidation); (iii) legislative or regulatory changes; (iv) the inherent business risks associated with safety and security; and (v) the outcome of claims and litigation involving or affecting the company.
Other important assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are specified in the company’s SEC reports, accessible on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov and the company’s website at: www.investors.csx.com.
Executive SummaryExecutive Summary
Michael WardChairman, President andChief Executive Officer
44
Third quarter overview . . . Third quarter overview . . .
Third Quarter EPS from Continuing Operations
$0.67
$0.94
2007 2008
Delivered record revenues, operating income and EPS
Revenues grow 18% on diverse business portfolio
Performance in safety and service remains strong
Operating margin improves 250 bps to record levels
40%Increase
Operations ReviewOperations Review
Tony IngramExecutive Vice PresidentChief Operating Officer
66
Leadership, discipline and executionLeadership, discipline and execution
Strong improvement in safety performance continues
Productivity initiatives are delivering results
Network is stable and service improvement will resume
SafetySafety
ProductivityProductivity
ServiceService
LeadershipLeadership
DisciplineDiscipline
ExecutionExecution
PerformanceExcellence
77
Network responded well following storm impacts Network responded well following storm impacts
Train operations on New Orleans line restored
Interchange reroutes with western roads were effective
Midwest operations back to normal following flooding
Service is stable and is expected to improve
Birmingham
Memphis
New Orleans
BNI, UNP, KCSReroutes
Area ImpactedArea Impacted
St Louis
NSC HaulageRights
Chicago
Louisville
Indianapolis
Area ImpactedArea Impacted
88
Helping lead one of the Nation’s safest industriesHelping lead one of the Nation’s safest industries
FRA Personal Injury Rate
1.97
1.56
1.271.12
Q3 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008
FRA Train Accident Rate
4.49
3.273.06
2.75
Q3 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008
99
Network efficiency remains resilientNetwork efficiency remains resilient
Terminal Dwell (hours)
28.4
25.0
22.724.1
Q3 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008
Train Velocity (mph)
19.7 19.8
21.4
20.1
Q3 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008
1010
On-time performance continues to be stableOn-time performance continues to be stable
On-time Originations
51%
77%83%
77%
Q3 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008
On-time Arrivals
43%
63%
76%
67%
Q3 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008
1111
Operations wrap-up . . .Operations wrap-up . . .
Building on strong safety foundation— Driving continuous improvement
Focused on delivering greater productivity gains— Contributing to further margin expansion
Network operations and service levels are stable — Continuing positive service momentum
Sales and Marketing ReviewSales and Marketing Review
Clarence GoodenExecutive Vice PresidentSales and Marketing
1313
Revenues increase 18% to nearly $3 billionRevenues increase 18% to nearly $3 billion
Third QuarterRevenue in Millions
$2,501
$2,961$460
2007 Growth 2008
Record quarterly revenues
Yield management continues to offset softer volumes
Consistent service producing strong revenue growth
Secular strength drives over six years of revenue growth
1414
Revenue growth is strong across most marketsRevenue growth is strong across most markets
Third QuarterYear-Over-Year Revenue Growth
(2%)
6%
9%
13%
16%
18%
19%
31%
36%
8%
Automotive
Food & Consumer
Forest Products
Emerging Markets
Chemicals
Phosphates & Fertilizers
Intermodal
Metals
Coal
Agricultural Products
1515
Price and fuel cost recovery drive RPU growthPrice and fuel cost recovery drive RPU growth
Year-Over-Year Change
6.2%6.4%6.8%6.7%6.5%6.5%7.1%
8.1% 6.9% 8.0%10.5%
18.3%21.2%
14.4%
Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008
Price Increase on 'Same Store Sales' Total Revenue per Unit
Note: ‘Same Store Sales’ price increases exclude impacts from fuel and mix
1616
Merchandise revenue increases 16%Merchandise revenue increases 16%
Third QuarterYear-Over-Year Change
16%
(3%)
20%
Revenue
Volume
RPU
Higher yields continue to offset softer volumes
Housing-related markets remain challenged
Strongest growth in Agriculture and Metals
Chemicals revenue growth overcomes storm impact
2007 Change 2008
RPU $ 1,861 $ 370 $ 2,231
Volume(thousands)
676 (23) 653
Revenue(millions)
$ 1,258 $ 199 $ 1,457
1717
Coal revenue increases 31%Coal revenue increases 31%
Third QuarterYear-Over-Year Change
31%
1%
30%
Revenue
Volume
RPU
Strength in the export market continues
Utility inventories remain below prior year levels
Pricing environment remains favorable going forward2007 Change 2008
RPU $ 1,396 $ 420 $ 1,816
Volume(thousands)
465 3 468
Revenue(millions)
$ 649 $ 201 $ 850
1818
Automotive revenue declines 2%Automotive revenue declines 2%
Third QuarterYear-Over-Year Change
(2%)
(23%)
27%
Revenue
Volume
RPU
Manufacturers decreasing production to match demand
Higher yields reflect stronger pricing and fuel recovery
2007 Change 2008
RPU $ 1,941 $ 527 $ 2,468
Volume(thousands)
102 (23) 79
Revenue(millions)
$ 198 ($ 3) $ 195
1919
Intermodal revenue increases 18%Intermodal revenue increases 18%
Third QuarterYear-Over-Year Change
18%
0%
18%
Revenue
Volume
RPU
Intermodal revenues increase to record levels
Fuel recovery and favorable mix drives yield growth
Domestic strength overcomes International weakness
Focus on bottom line results continues to drive success
2007 Change 2008
RPU $ 636 $ 114 $ 750
Volume(thousands)
530 2 532
Revenue(millions)
$ 337 $ 62 $ 399
2020
Fourth quarter revenue outlook is positiveFourth quarter revenue outlook is positive
Fourth Quarter Outlook Percent of Revenue
Favorable Neutral Unfavorable
69%
24%
7%
AutomotiveAutomotiveUnfavorableUnfavorable
Intermodal
Forest Products
Phosphate & Fertilizer
Neutral
Agricultural ProductsAgricultural Products
ChemicalsChemicals
Coal, Coke & Iron OreCoal, Coke & Iron Ore
Emerging MarketsEmerging Markets
Food & ConsumerFood & Consumer
MetalsMetals
FavorableFavorable
2121
Sales and Marketing wrap-up . . .Sales and Marketing wrap-up . . .
Housing and automotive markets remain challenged
Broader economy also expected to slow near-term
Diverse portfolio remains resilient in slower economy
Expect price to more than offset volume weakness
Financial ResultsFinancial Results
Oscar MunozExecutive Vice PresidentChief Financial Officer
23232323
Double-digit growth in operating income and EPSDouble-digit growth in operating income and EPS
Third Quarter Results
Dollars in millions, except EPS 2008 2007 Variance
RevenueExpense
$ 2,9612,228
$ 2,5011,943
$ 460(285)
Operating Income $ 733 $ 558 $ 175
Other Income (net)Interest ExpenseIncome Taxes
8(131(228
))
14(102(173
))
(6(29(55
)))
Earnings from Continuing Operations $ 382 $ 297 $ 85
Fully Diluted Shares in Millions
EPS from Continuing Operations
408.5
$ 0.94
445.5
$ 0.67
37.0
$ 0.27
24242424
Core earning power improves $180 millionCore earning power improves $180 million
Operating Income in Millions
$733
$558
$180
$39($44)
Q3 2007 Storm Impacts
Fuel LagImpact
EarningsMomentum
Q3 2008
2525
Operating ratio improves 250 bpsOperating ratio improves 250 bps
ComparableOperating Ratio
83.2%
80.2%77.7%
75.2%
Q3 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008
Performance drives operating ratio to third quarter record
Price/productivity continue to drive margin expansion
Margin expansion totals 800 bps since 2005
Note: Comparable results exclude gains from insurance recoveries
2626
Third Quarter Operating Expensesand Year-Over-Year Percentage Change
15%
8%
3%
(7%)
54%
21%
1%
Total Expenses
Inland Transportation
Depreciation
Equipment Rent
Fuel
Material, Supplies, and Other
Labor and Fringe
2626
Expenses up 15% overall; up 7% excluding fuelExpenses up 15% overall; up 7% excluding fuel
$ 754
65
568
508
106
227
$ 2,228
2727
Fuel expense increases 54%Fuel expense increases 54%
Gallons Per ThousandGross Ton Miles
1.24 1.231.20
1.16
Q3 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008
178Subtotal$ 5082008 Fuel Expense
))
173(1(814
Increase in Fuel PriceChange in Volume and MixFuel EfficiencyNon-locomotive Fuel (net)
$ 3302007 Fuel Expense
Third QuarterFuel Analysis in Millions
2828
Labor and Fringe expense increases 1%Labor and Fringe expense increases 1%
Employee Headcount
33,991
34,72834,213
33,405
Q3 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008
6Subtotal$ 7542008 Labor Expense
)22
(16Wage and Benefit InflationLabor Productivity and Other
$ 7482007 Labor Expense
Third QuarterLabor Analysis in Millions
Note: Headcount reflects the company’s transportation businesses only
2929
MS&O expense increases 21%MS&O expense increases 21%
MS&O ExpenseDollars in Millions
$471
$568
Q3 2007 Q3 2008
97Subtotal$ 5682008 MS&O Expense
30161140
Storm ImpactProxy-related CostsCost of RiskInflation and Other
$ 4712007 MS&O Expense
Third QuarterMS&O Analysis in Millions
3030
Rent expense decreases 7%Rent expense decreases 7%
)(8Subtotal$ 1062008 Rent Expense
))
(11(58
VolumeNet Leases and OtherEquipment Utilization
$ 1142007 Rent Expense
Third QuarterRents Analysis in Millions
Note: Reflects equipment utilization in the carload network on freight cars where CSX incurs rent
Payable Days Per Load
15.5
13.913.0
16.0
17.8
15.414.3
15.7
Q3 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008
Total Carloads Excluding Multi-levels
3131
Other expenses increase 4%Other expenses increase 4%
Other ExpensesDollars in Millions
$220 $227
$60 $65
Q3 2007 Q3 2008
Higher capital base increases Depreciation expense
Transcontinental volumes drive Inland Transportation
Depreciation Inland Transportation
3232
Total share repurchases approaching $4 billionTotal share repurchases approaching $4 billion
Cumulative SharesRepurchased in Millions
$836
$3,090
$2,639
$465
2006 2007 Q3 2008
Shares repurchased total nearly 90 million since 2006
Repurchased $836 million of stock in the third quarter
Board Authority of $2.0 billion remains on existing program
$3,926
3333
Strong liquidity; minimal debt maturity through 2010Strong liquidity; minimal debt maturity through 2010
Only about $400 million of debt matures through 2010— $18 million through year-end
— $301 million in 2009
— $93 million in 2010
Cash balance remains stable
Free Cash Flow generation expected to remain strong
Debt Maturities in Millions
$93
$301
$18
Remainderof 2008
2009 2010
Note: Debt maturities during the remainder of 2008 include debt maturing from October 16th through year-end
34343434
Financial targets for full-year 2008 . . .Financial targets for full-year 2008 . . .
Targeting EPS at low end of the $3.65 – $3.75 range
Guidance driven by:— Sustained price momentum— Moderating fuel costs— Continued productivity gains— Diverse portfolio of business
Free Cash Flow of approximately $1 billion— Capital spending at $1.75 billion
Concluding RemarksConcluding Remarks
Michael WardChairman, President andChief Executive Officer
3636
Relentless pursuit of excellence . . .Relentless pursuit of excellence . . .
3737
Third Quarter 2008Earnings Conference CallThird Quarter 2008Earnings Conference Call