csx 3Q 08

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Third Quarter 2008 Earnings Conference Call Third Quarter 2008 Earnings Conference Call 2 2 Forward-Looking Disclosure Forward-Looking Disclosure This information and other statements by the company contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act with respect to, among other items: projections and estimates of earnings, revenues, cost-savings, expenses, or other financial items; statements of management’s plans, strategies and objectives for future operation, and management’s expectations as to future performance and operations and the time by which objectives will be achieved; statements concerning proposed new products and services; and statements regarding future economic, industry or market conditions or performance. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words or phrases such as “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “project,” “estimate” and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and the company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement. If the company does update any forward-looking statement, no inference should be drawn that the company will make additional updates with respect to that statement or any other forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, and actual performance or results could differ materially from that anticipated by these forward-looking statements. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by these forward-looking statements include, among others: (i) the company’s success in implementing its financial and operational initiatives; (ii) changes in domestic or international economic or business conditions, including those affecting the rail industry (such as the impact of industry competition, conditions, performance and consolidation); (iii) legislative or regulatory changes; (iv) the inherent business risks associated with safety and security; and (v) the outcome of claims and litigation involving or affecting the company. Other important assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward- looking statements are specified in the company’s SEC reports, accessible on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov and the company’s website at: www.investors.csx.com.

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Transcript of csx 3Q 08

Page 1: csx  3Q 08

11

Third Quarter 2008Earnings Conference CallThird Quarter 2008Earnings Conference Call

22

Forward-Looking DisclosureForward-Looking Disclosure

This information and other statements by the company contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act with respect to, among other items: projections and estimates of earnings, revenues, cost-savings, expenses, or other financial items; statements of management’s plans, strategies and objectives for future operation, and management’s expectations as to future performance and operations and the time by which objectives will be achieved; statements concerning proposed new products and services; and statements regarding future economic, industry or market conditions or performance. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words or phrases such as “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “project,” “estimate” and similar expressions.

Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and the company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement. If the company does update any forward-looking statement, no inference should be drawn that the company will make additional updates with respect to that statement or any other forward-looking statements.

Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, and actual performance or results could differ materially from that anticipated by these forward-looking statements. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by these forward-looking statements include, among others: (i) the company’s success in implementing its financial and operational initiatives; (ii) changes in domestic or international economic or business conditions, including those affecting the rail industry (such as the impact of industry competition, conditions, performance and consolidation); (iii) legislative or regulatory changes; (iv) the inherent business risks associated with safety and security; and (v) the outcome of claims and litigation involving or affecting the company.

Other important assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are specified in the company’s SEC reports, accessible on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov and the company’s website at: www.investors.csx.com.

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Executive SummaryExecutive Summary

Michael WardChairman, President andChief Executive Officer

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Third quarter overview . . . Third quarter overview . . .

Third Quarter EPS from Continuing Operations

$0.67

$0.94

2007 2008

Delivered record revenues, operating income and EPS

Revenues grow 18% on diverse business portfolio

Performance in safety and service remains strong

Operating margin improves 250 bps to record levels

40%Increase

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Operations ReviewOperations Review

Tony IngramExecutive Vice PresidentChief Operating Officer

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Leadership, discipline and executionLeadership, discipline and execution

Strong improvement in safety performance continues

Productivity initiatives are delivering results

Network is stable and service improvement will resume

SafetySafety

ProductivityProductivity

ServiceService

LeadershipLeadership

DisciplineDiscipline

ExecutionExecution

PerformanceExcellence

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Network responded well following storm impacts Network responded well following storm impacts

Train operations on New Orleans line restored

Interchange reroutes with western roads were effective

Midwest operations back to normal following flooding

Service is stable and is expected to improve

Birmingham

Memphis

New Orleans

BNI, UNP, KCSReroutes

Area ImpactedArea Impacted

St Louis

NSC HaulageRights

Chicago

Louisville

Indianapolis

Area ImpactedArea Impacted

88

Helping lead one of the Nation’s safest industriesHelping lead one of the Nation’s safest industries

FRA Personal Injury Rate

1.97

1.56

1.271.12

Q3 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008

FRA Train Accident Rate

4.49

3.273.06

2.75

Q3 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008

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Network efficiency remains resilientNetwork efficiency remains resilient

Terminal Dwell (hours)

28.4

25.0

22.724.1

Q3 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008

Train Velocity (mph)

19.7 19.8

21.4

20.1

Q3 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008

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On-time performance continues to be stableOn-time performance continues to be stable

On-time Originations

51%

77%83%

77%

Q3 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008

On-time Arrivals

43%

63%

76%

67%

Q3 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008

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Operations wrap-up . . .Operations wrap-up . . .

Building on strong safety foundation— Driving continuous improvement

Focused on delivering greater productivity gains— Contributing to further margin expansion

Network operations and service levels are stable — Continuing positive service momentum

Sales and Marketing ReviewSales and Marketing Review

Clarence GoodenExecutive Vice PresidentSales and Marketing

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Revenues increase 18% to nearly $3 billionRevenues increase 18% to nearly $3 billion

Third QuarterRevenue in Millions

$2,501

$2,961$460

2007 Growth 2008

Record quarterly revenues

Yield management continues to offset softer volumes

Consistent service producing strong revenue growth

Secular strength drives over six years of revenue growth

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Revenue growth is strong across most marketsRevenue growth is strong across most markets

Third QuarterYear-Over-Year Revenue Growth

(2%)

6%

9%

13%

16%

18%

19%

31%

36%

8%

Automotive

Food & Consumer

Forest Products

Emerging Markets

Chemicals

Phosphates & Fertilizers

Intermodal

Metals

Coal

Agricultural Products

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Price and fuel cost recovery drive RPU growthPrice and fuel cost recovery drive RPU growth

Year-Over-Year Change

6.2%6.4%6.8%6.7%6.5%6.5%7.1%

8.1% 6.9% 8.0%10.5%

18.3%21.2%

14.4%

Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008

Price Increase on 'Same Store Sales' Total Revenue per Unit

Note: ‘Same Store Sales’ price increases exclude impacts from fuel and mix

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Merchandise revenue increases 16%Merchandise revenue increases 16%

Third QuarterYear-Over-Year Change

16%

(3%)

20%

Revenue

Volume

RPU

Higher yields continue to offset softer volumes

Housing-related markets remain challenged

Strongest growth in Agriculture and Metals

Chemicals revenue growth overcomes storm impact

2007 Change 2008

RPU $ 1,861 $ 370 $ 2,231

Volume(thousands)

676 (23) 653

Revenue(millions)

$ 1,258 $ 199 $ 1,457

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Coal revenue increases 31%Coal revenue increases 31%

Third QuarterYear-Over-Year Change

31%

1%

30%

Revenue

Volume

RPU

Strength in the export market continues

Utility inventories remain below prior year levels

Pricing environment remains favorable going forward2007 Change 2008

RPU $ 1,396 $ 420 $ 1,816

Volume(thousands)

465 3 468

Revenue(millions)

$ 649 $ 201 $ 850

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Automotive revenue declines 2%Automotive revenue declines 2%

Third QuarterYear-Over-Year Change

(2%)

(23%)

27%

Revenue

Volume

RPU

Manufacturers decreasing production to match demand

Higher yields reflect stronger pricing and fuel recovery

2007 Change 2008

RPU $ 1,941 $ 527 $ 2,468

Volume(thousands)

102 (23) 79

Revenue(millions)

$ 198 ($ 3) $ 195

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Intermodal revenue increases 18%Intermodal revenue increases 18%

Third QuarterYear-Over-Year Change

18%

0%

18%

Revenue

Volume

RPU

Intermodal revenues increase to record levels

Fuel recovery and favorable mix drives yield growth

Domestic strength overcomes International weakness

Focus on bottom line results continues to drive success

2007 Change 2008

RPU $ 636 $ 114 $ 750

Volume(thousands)

530 2 532

Revenue(millions)

$ 337 $ 62 $ 399

2020

Fourth quarter revenue outlook is positiveFourth quarter revenue outlook is positive

Fourth Quarter Outlook Percent of Revenue

Favorable Neutral Unfavorable

69%

24%

7%

AutomotiveAutomotiveUnfavorableUnfavorable

Intermodal

Forest Products

Phosphate & Fertilizer

Neutral

Agricultural ProductsAgricultural Products

ChemicalsChemicals

Coal, Coke & Iron OreCoal, Coke & Iron Ore

Emerging MarketsEmerging Markets

Food & ConsumerFood & Consumer

MetalsMetals

FavorableFavorable

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Sales and Marketing wrap-up . . .Sales and Marketing wrap-up . . .

Housing and automotive markets remain challenged

Broader economy also expected to slow near-term

Diverse portfolio remains resilient in slower economy

Expect price to more than offset volume weakness

Financial ResultsFinancial Results

Oscar MunozExecutive Vice PresidentChief Financial Officer

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Double-digit growth in operating income and EPSDouble-digit growth in operating income and EPS

Third Quarter Results

Dollars in millions, except EPS 2008 2007 Variance

RevenueExpense

$ 2,9612,228

$ 2,5011,943

$ 460(285)

Operating Income $ 733 $ 558 $ 175

Other Income (net)Interest ExpenseIncome Taxes

8(131(228

))

14(102(173

))

(6(29(55

)))

Earnings from Continuing Operations $ 382 $ 297 $ 85

Fully Diluted Shares in Millions

EPS from Continuing Operations

408.5

$ 0.94

445.5

$ 0.67

37.0

$ 0.27

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Core earning power improves $180 millionCore earning power improves $180 million

Operating Income in Millions

$733

$558

$180

$39($44)

Q3 2007 Storm Impacts

Fuel LagImpact

EarningsMomentum

Q3 2008

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Operating ratio improves 250 bpsOperating ratio improves 250 bps

ComparableOperating Ratio

83.2%

80.2%77.7%

75.2%

Q3 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008

Performance drives operating ratio to third quarter record

Price/productivity continue to drive margin expansion

Margin expansion totals 800 bps since 2005

Note: Comparable results exclude gains from insurance recoveries

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Third Quarter Operating Expensesand Year-Over-Year Percentage Change

15%

8%

3%

(7%)

54%

21%

1%

Total Expenses

Inland Transportation

Depreciation

Equipment Rent

Fuel

Material, Supplies, and Other

Labor and Fringe

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Expenses up 15% overall; up 7% excluding fuelExpenses up 15% overall; up 7% excluding fuel

$ 754

65

568

508

106

227

$ 2,228

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Fuel expense increases 54%Fuel expense increases 54%

Gallons Per ThousandGross Ton Miles

1.24 1.231.20

1.16

Q3 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008

178Subtotal$ 5082008 Fuel Expense

))

173(1(814

Increase in Fuel PriceChange in Volume and MixFuel EfficiencyNon-locomotive Fuel (net)

$ 3302007 Fuel Expense

Third QuarterFuel Analysis in Millions

2828

Labor and Fringe expense increases 1%Labor and Fringe expense increases 1%

Employee Headcount

33,991

34,72834,213

33,405

Q3 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008

6Subtotal$ 7542008 Labor Expense

)22

(16Wage and Benefit InflationLabor Productivity and Other

$ 7482007 Labor Expense

Third QuarterLabor Analysis in Millions

Note: Headcount reflects the company’s transportation businesses only

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MS&O expense increases 21%MS&O expense increases 21%

MS&O ExpenseDollars in Millions

$471

$568

Q3 2007 Q3 2008

97Subtotal$ 5682008 MS&O Expense

30161140

Storm ImpactProxy-related CostsCost of RiskInflation and Other

$ 4712007 MS&O Expense

Third QuarterMS&O Analysis in Millions

3030

Rent expense decreases 7%Rent expense decreases 7%

)(8Subtotal$ 1062008 Rent Expense

))

(11(58

VolumeNet Leases and OtherEquipment Utilization

$ 1142007 Rent Expense

Third QuarterRents Analysis in Millions

Note: Reflects equipment utilization in the carload network on freight cars where CSX incurs rent

Payable Days Per Load

15.5

13.913.0

16.0

17.8

15.414.3

15.7

Q3 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008

Total Carloads Excluding Multi-levels

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Other expenses increase 4%Other expenses increase 4%

Other ExpensesDollars in Millions

$220 $227

$60 $65

Q3 2007 Q3 2008

Higher capital base increases Depreciation expense

Transcontinental volumes drive Inland Transportation

Depreciation Inland Transportation

3232

Total share repurchases approaching $4 billionTotal share repurchases approaching $4 billion

Cumulative SharesRepurchased in Millions

$836

$3,090

$2,639

$465

2006 2007 Q3 2008

Shares repurchased total nearly 90 million since 2006

Repurchased $836 million of stock in the third quarter

Board Authority of $2.0 billion remains on existing program

$3,926

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Strong liquidity; minimal debt maturity through 2010Strong liquidity; minimal debt maturity through 2010

Only about $400 million of debt matures through 2010— $18 million through year-end

— $301 million in 2009

— $93 million in 2010

Cash balance remains stable

Free Cash Flow generation expected to remain strong

Debt Maturities in Millions

$93

$301

$18

Remainderof 2008

2009 2010

Note: Debt maturities during the remainder of 2008 include debt maturing from October 16th through year-end

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Financial targets for full-year 2008 . . .Financial targets for full-year 2008 . . .

Targeting EPS at low end of the $3.65 – $3.75 range

Guidance driven by:— Sustained price momentum— Moderating fuel costs— Continued productivity gains— Diverse portfolio of business

Free Cash Flow of approximately $1 billion— Capital spending at $1.75 billion

Page 18: csx  3Q 08

Concluding RemarksConcluding Remarks

Michael WardChairman, President andChief Executive Officer

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Relentless pursuit of excellence . . .Relentless pursuit of excellence . . .

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Third Quarter 2008Earnings Conference CallThird Quarter 2008Earnings Conference Call