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PlanetaryVitalSigns,PlanetaryDecisions,PlanetaryIntelligence
PublicMistrustofGlobalTemperatureOceanHeat
RiskIndicatorsPlanetaryIntelligence
CharlesFKennel&StephenBriggs,SeminarpresentaGontoCentreforStudyofExistenGalRisk,UniversityofCambridge,February26,2016,incollaboraGon
withDavidVictor,SchoolofGlobalPolicyandStrategies,UCSD
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GlobalTemperatureOurnaïveaRempttocommunicatehauntsusall.
Wemeasureandcomputeavastrangeofvariablesyetfocuspubliclyononenumberthatconveysthemisleadingimpressionthattheworldwarmsupuniformly,orthatincreasedtemperatureistheprimarymanifestaGonofclimatechange.Wethenusethishighlyimperfectindexoftheratehumansareadding
energytotheclimatesystemasourprimarycriterionforwhetherwearemakingprogress.
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Globaltemperaturegetsusintohotwater
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TheHockeySGckGlobalTemperatureinthelastmillennium
Empiricaladjustmentsofecologicalproxyandthermometerdata
MichaelE.Mann,“TheHockeySGckandtheClimateWars:dispatchesfromthefrontlines”,ColumbiaUniversityPress,2012
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HiatusGreenhousewarmingnotshowingupinsurfacetemperature
Modelsworkbefore2000butnotaYerInterdecadalPacificOscillaGon?
AnomaliesarefromthreeupdatedobservaGonaldatasetsandtheensemblemean(blackcurve)and10–90%range(darkergreyshading)GMSTof124simulaGonsfrom41CMIP-5modelsusingRCP4.5extensionsfrom2005.
Fyfe,J.C.etal,MakingSenseoftheearly2000swarmingslowdown,NatureClimateChange6,224–228(2016)doi:10.1038/nclimate2938Publishedonline24February2016.
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Gaps between sparse data of different types taken at ill-assortedpoints far fromoneanother inspaceandGmemustbefilledinbymulG-parametermodelsconstructedfromotherdataandphysics-basedcalculaGons.Theresultsdepend ontheaccuracyandcompletenessofthemeasurements,the realismandprecisionofthemodels,andtherigorofthestaGsGcaltechniquesusedtomergedataandmodels.Progress is recursive. Improvements in observaGons,theoreGcal understanding,models, staGsGcal techniques, andcomputaGonal capacity produce new results that, treated asdatainsubsequentmodels,startthecycleofreanalysisagain.
Reanalysis
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Asknowledgeimproves,thedatachange
SecondLawofReanalysis
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Karl,ThomasR.,etal."PossiblearGfactsofdatabiasesintherecentglobalsurface
warminghiatus."Science348.6242(2015):1469-1472.
2015NOAAreanalysishasarousedpoliGcalsuspicionaswellasscienGficskepGcism
“Approximately300peopleincludingscienGsts,engineersandotherexperts,abouthalfwithdoctoratedegrees,havepeGGonedU.S.HouseScienceCommiReeChairmanLamarSmith,R-Texas,tocarefullyinvesGgatesuspiciouslyoverheatedclimatetemperaturebook-cookingbytheNaGonalOceanicAtmosphericAdministraGon(NOAA).”LarryBell,“StatsTamperingPutsNOAAinhotwater”,CATOInsGtute,Feb1,2016
Land-surface temperatures frommoreweatherstaGons+ adjusGngSST bias between ships and buoyslowered earlier data; inclusion of2014dataraisedlaterdata
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Bynow,youarethinkingthattheaRribuGonissueisseRled,thatthedenialistphenomenonisoverexceptintheUS…thattheUShas
unusuallycrudewaysofdisplayingpoliGcalconflict…
WhatisshoutedloudlyinUSmediamaybequietlyheldelsewhere…
UnresolvedcogniGvedissonanceproducesresistancetotakingacGon,consciousorunconscious.
Trustisthecoinoftherealm
TheclimatescienceandtechnologycommunityhastriedsinceIPCCwasfoundedin1988todoallwithinitspowerstomakeitsresultstrustworthy.CouldwehavedoneabeRerjobwithtemperature?
Itisnotenoughtoberight
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Theoceanstakeupmorethan90%oftheenergyadded to the climate system by humans. Theatmosphere,2%.The heat content of the ocean is our bestmeasureofhumanity’simpactontheclimate.ItsGmehistoryandgeographicaldistribuGonhelpusunderstandwhether the changes we are seeingare incidental or fundamental. It tells us howmuch climate risk we are storing up for thefuture.Fortunately,wecannowmeasureit.
Whydowelettheworldrelyontemperature?
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Riser,StephenC.,etal."FiYeenyearsofoceanobservaGonswiththeglobalArgoarray."NatureClimateChange6.2(2016):145-153;ProjectARGOdeploymentcycle.
FigurecourtesyofMeganScanderbeg,ScrippsInsGtuGonofOceanography,UCSanDiego.
ProjectArgo
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DistribuGonofARGOFloats
Thediagramisofcoursemisleading;thedataaresparse.Eachpointcorrespondsto3degx3degpixel(300kmx300kmapprox.).
Thesystemhasrecordedabout1.5MverGcalprofiles.
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Gleckler,PeterJ.,etal."Industrial-eraglobaloceanheatuptakedoublesinrecentdecades,”NatureClimateChange”(2016).Also,Wijffels,Susan,etal."Ocean
temperatureschronicletheongoingwarmingofEarth."NatureClimateChange6.2(2016):116-118.
OceanHeat,1865-2015Halfofalloceanwarmingsince1865wasduringhiatus
OHCchangeesGmatescombiningclimatemodelswithdatafromthenineteenth-centuryChallengerexpediGon,amulG-decadalrecordofship-basedinsitumostlyupper-oceanmeasurements,themorerecentnear-globalArgofloatsprofilingtointermediate(2,000 m)depths,andfull-depthrepeatedtransoceanicsecGons.
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Global surface temperature is the benchmarkthatallclimatemodelsaretunedto.WouldtheirperformanceimproveiftheywereconstrainedtoopGmizethewaytheyjointlysaGsfytemperatureandoceanheatcontentconstraints? Wouldthemodels beRer separate anthropogenic warmingfrom “natural variaGons”? Would decisionmakers have looked at both temperature andoceanheatcontentifthemodelershaddoneso?
WhatifOHChadalsobeenabenchmarkforclimatemodeling?
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That an importantpolicydebatehasbeenhostage todelicateaspects of reanalysis shows how tricky reliance on a singleindicator can be. Had ocean heat content been as visible asglobal temperature, it would have made clear to all thathumansweresGlladdingenergytotheclimatesystem.Climatechange was not slowing down, only global surface warmingwas.Of course, ocean heat content data, indeed all climate Gmeseries,are fragile in thesamewayas temperaturehasproventobe.Butthatisthepoint.Whenallindicatorsarefragile,youshouldnotrelyonone;youriskover-focusingpolicyonit. Youlook at a number of different ones and ask whether they allpointinthesamegeneraldirecGon. Youlookatthebalanceofevidence.
Thiswholeepisodeistroubling
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Ditchthe2-degreewarminggoalDavidG.VictorandCharlesF.Kennel,Nature,514,30–31(02October2014)doi:10.1038/514030a
Globaltemperatureamisleadingmetricofanthropogenicclimatechange2-degreessurpassedunlessglobaldeploymentofunprovencarbonremovaltechnologiesBusinessasusualunacceptable,butnoscienGficproofthat2degreesisthresholdofdanger
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ClimateRiskFailuretomiGgateoradapttoclimatechange:thelargest
singlethreattotheglobaleconomy
ScienGstsdonotmakethedecisionsonclimate,poliGciansandbusinessleadersdo.
Theyrespondtotheriskstothingsthepubliccaresabout,nottheabstractthreatofclimatechange.
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VitalSigns
Empiricalindicatorsofongoingchangeinkeyclimatesystems
DirectRisk
Theecologicaland/orsocietalimpactsofchangesin
contemporaryorfutureclimate
SystemicRiskQuery-basedextremeoutcome
probabiliGesWhatistheworstthingthatcan
happen?
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LargeWeatherandOceanSystems
ThermalproperGes-Atmosphericandseasurfacetemperature,oceanheatcontentAtmosphericcirculaGon-meridionalheattransport,jetstreams,HadleyCell…OceaniccirculaGon-AntarcGcCurrent,BeaufortGyre,Kuroshio,GulfStream…Space-GmepaRerns-ENSO,IndianOceanDipole;PacificDecadal&ArcGcOscillaGons..ExtremeweathersystemaGcs-heatwaves,coldsnaps,storms,droughts,floods,…
RegionalGeophysicalSystemsCryosphere-Seaice,Greenland/AntarcGciceshelves,mountainglaciersandsnows,permafrost…Watersheds-rivernetworks,aquifers,deltas,sedimenttransport…CoastalZones-RelaGvesealevelrise,stormsurges,beacherosion,saltwaterintrusions
RegionalEcologicalSystemsBiomes-Deserts,chaparral,grassland,savannah,forest,tundra,marshlands…Biodiversity-speciesdistribuGonsandabundances,symbioses…Habitatchange-invasivespecies,migraGon….
RegionalTechnicalSystemsEcosystems-Agriculture,forestry,fisheries…WaterandAirSupplies-IrrigaGon,polluGon,dams,ExtremeEvents-Disasterresponseandcivilinfrastructure…EnergyServices-Electricitytransmission,hydroelectricpower,…
HumansHealth-Malaria,cholera,respiratorydisease,…Security-Food,water,energy,environmentalconflict,migraGon…Economics-Industries,trade,investment,insurance,…Welfare-SustainabledevelopmentMobility-Airandseatransport
•
VitalSigns
DirectRisk
SystemicRisk
AdaptaGonKnowledgeCascade
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CommonChallenge
TraceablepathwaysconnecGngindependentknowledgedomainsandontologies
MethodologicalIssues
Inherentlysparsedata,InhomogeneoussamplingIncommensuratedatatypes,noexplicitcausalconnecGons
Empiricalbinsandarbitraryformats;StaGsGcaloutliersunusuallyimportant;Needtouseexpertadvicewhereanalysisfails
BigdataBayesiananalyGcs
Thebasicrequirementisforthree-waycollaboraGonsamongexpertsinbigdataanalyGcs,climatemodeling,andin
environmentorsocialimpactareas.
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HowelsecantherelaGvelysmallscience,policy,andtechnologycommunitydevelopthecapacitytoservemillionsofdecision-makersindozensofindustrialsectors,
hundredsofecologicallydisGnctecologicalregions,andthousandsofcommuniGeswithdifferentcultural,economic,andenvironmentalcharacterisGcs?
Climate-smartinfrastructure
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SmartInfrastructure:AnnotatedsearchenginesGuidestotheinformaGonjungle
LivingannotaGonbyaglobalnetworkofqualifiedreviewersKnowledgesynthesesappearassoonassubjectmaRerismature
Levelsofdecisionreadinesscharacterized
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Shouldwenotthinkinadvanceofanalways-onsocialandinformaGonnetworkthatprovides
decision-readyknowledgetothosewhoholdtheresponsibilitytoact,wherevertheyare,atGmesoftheirchoosing?Shouldn’twepreparethesocialinfrastructure-policies,governance,insGtuGons,financing-neededtoknitclimateknowledgeand
acGontogether?
KnowledgeAcGonNetwork
Kennel,CharlesF.,VeerabhadranRamanathan,andDavidG.Victor."Copingwithclimatechangeinthenexthalf-century."ProceedingsoftheAmericanPhilosophicalSociety156.4(2012):398-415.
Victor,DavidG.,CharlesF.Kennel,andVeerabhadranRamanathan."Theclimatethreatwecanbeat."
ForeignAffairs91.3(2012):112-121.
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ThinkGloballyAnalyGctoolsand
standards
AssessRegionallyImpactsonregionalnatural&technical
systems
ActLocallyValuesand
vulnerabiliGes
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GlobalKnowledgeAcGonNetworkKnowledgeneedstoberelatedtoacGon“horizontally”amongexpertsanddecisionmakersateachlevel,and“verGcally”,bothupanddown,through
theglobal,regional,andlocallevels.
C.F.Kennel,“KnowledgeAcGonNetworks”inSustainableHumanity,SustainableNature,Our
Responsibility,ProceedingsoftheJointWorkshop,PonGficalAcademiesofScienceandSocialScience,Extraseries41,VaGcanCity2015
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Is it possible to use the tools at hand-observaGons from space and groundnetworks; demographic, economic andsocietal measures; big data staGsGcaltechniques; numerical models, andmoderncommunicaGons-toproduceglobalconGnuous awareness of the nature andevolvingrisksofclimatechange?
GlobalConGnuousAwareness
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Mydear lady,hereatUCLAtheyfirstinterconnected computers. Soontherewillbeaworld-widenetwork.Itwill first be used to manage globalfinance, but the expansion ofeconomic acGvity it induces willcreate so much polluGon that it willbeaskedtomanageoureconomyandenvironment in harmony with oneanother. People will want day-by-day, minute-by-minute adapGvemanagement, for which they neitherhave the paGence or quickness ofmind. So they will connect theirenvironmental sensors directly totheir computer network. At thatpoint,theywillhavecreatedaplanetawareofitsowninternalprocesses,aplanetary consciousness. And that,dear lady, is what will communicatewithsimilarenGGesacrossthegalaxy.
DinnertableconversaGoninthe1970s,paraphrasedbyCharlesKennelin2016
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WeareonthewaytobuildingMorrison’splanetary
consciousness.Wewillthinkweareaskingittodiagnosethe
planet’sills,butitmayconcludethatwearetheproblem….