© Crown copyright Met · PDF fileRichard Betts, Martin Best, Pete Falloon, Simon...

© Crown copyright Met Office

Climate change impactsAn overview of work at the Met Office Hadley CentrePete Falloon, UK-China INYS Workshop 27/02/2008


Collaborators

Richard Betts, Martin Best, Pete Falloon, Simon Gosling1, Debbie Hemming, Matt Hills2, Tom Howard, Tomasz Kasikowsi, Neil Kaye, Jason Lowe, Mark McCarthy, Tom

Osborne2, Stephen Sitch, Sergey Venevsky3, Charlotte Wainwright2, Tim Wheeler2

Thanks to Olivier Boucher, Mat Collins, Peter Cox4, Chris Huntingford5, Chris Jones, Yadvinder Malhi6, Robert Nicholls7, Mike Sanderson, David Sexton, Mark Webb

1Kings College London, 2Walker Institute/Reading University, 3Leeds University, 4Exeter University, 5Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, 6Oxford University, 7Tyndall Centre/Southampton University


Impacts assessments came as an “add-on” to climate modelling….

Human activity

Greenhouse climate change

ImpactsWater Food

Health Biodiversity etc…


Human activity

Greenhouse climate change

ImpactsWater Food

Health Biodiversity etc…

But now we need a more robust and complete approach…

Other (local)

climate change)

e.g.: urban

heat islands

Other changes e.g.: air quality, land use

Interactions


50% of the human population live on 3% of the Earths land surface

Figure from the UN department of Economic and Social Affairs

Night lights of the world from the US National Geographical Data Center


Urban climate change has long been recognised

Night-time thermal image: 7-9-1991Courtesy of the ATSR project.

London up to 10oC warmer than rural area

•Increased storage of heat.

•Reduced evaporation.

•Anthropogenic heat release up to 1500Wm-2 (cf incident solar of 342Wm-2 or forcing of 4Wm-2 for doubled CO2)


Projected increase in local temperature for a global average warming of 2 deg C

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Mosco

w

Berlin

Lond

on

Paris

Budap

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Ottawa

Boston

RomeWash

ington D

C

Lisbo

n

Tokyo

Dallas

Tem

pera

ture

incr

ease

(deg

C)

Summer average Hottest day of the year


Estimated percentage increase in mortality

• Based on summer average warming

• Doesn’t include adaptation

• Doesn’t include other health impacts (such as changes in air quality)

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Boston Budapest Dallas London

Perc

enta

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crea

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Temperature change in cities due to doubling CO2 and tripling anthropogenic heat source

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0.50

1.00

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Beijing Chicago London Madrid Mexico City Moscow New York Paris Rome Sydney

Tem

pera

ture

incr

ease

(°C

)

CO2 Increase Anthrop Increase


Putting urban areas into the Regional climate model

T3

T2T1

T4

H1 H2 H3 H4

• MOSES2 land-surface tile-scheme

• Compare local warming in cities due to radiatively-forced climate change by doubled CO2 with that due to increased anthropogenic heat source

• Not possible for UKCIP08

Fractional coverage of urban areas in Europe


Understanding uncertainties

Many sources of uncertainty in model projections…

Future emissions of greenhouse gases

Population, Technology, Political pressure

Incorrect, incomplete or missing description of key processes and feedbacks in the climate system

Representation of clouds, Feedback from land-use change

Differences in parameterisation

To understand these we use…

Ensembles of projections made from many different models

Plant productivity over Africa from the ‘QUMP’ perturbed parameter ensemble


Future Plant Productivity changes & uncertaintieswith doubled CO2

Increases in plant productivity over most of tropics, temperate and boreal zones

Decreases in NE South America, southern Africa and Mediterranean basin

Uncertainties largest where changes biggest.

Usually uncertainties are smaller than average change

KgC/m2/yr


Impacts of doubled-CO2 climate change on wheat production

Change in area suitable for spring wheat

Change in yield (%)


Ozone Effects on Global Plant Productivity by 2100

Picture shows effects of high ozone concentration on plant growth

Future % changes in plant productivity due to higher ozone concentrations by 2100

% change in productivity


Human health – modelled low level ozone

Yellow, orange & red colours highlight concentrations above 60ppb – the WHO 8 hr exposure dose guideline

Future ozone concentrations projected to rise above WHO guideline level in many (esp. highly populated) locations

Future low-level Ozone concentration – 2090s

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5

10

15

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DJF MAM JJA SON

Season

Popu

latio

n ex

pose

d (%

)

1990

2090

% of global population exposed to ozone above WHO guideline projected to increase significantly

Implications for world health policies

Courtesy of Michael Sanderson


Future river flow + population changes (SRES A2 scenario)

% change in 2080s river flowPopulation change from 2000 to 2080(people per km2)

Less More

Less More


Future changes in water stressbetween 1971-2000 and 2071-2100 (SRES A2)

Large areas show increasing water stress in 21st century

Increasedstress

Becomesstressed

NoNochangechange

ReducedReducedstressstress

StopsBeing stressed

Falkenmark Indicator: <1700m3 water per person per year = water stress


How will carbon dioxide affect plants and global mean runoff ?

CO2 as greenhouse gas only

CO2 also affecting plant stomata

Less concern over drought?

More concern of flooding?


Simulated burnt area

Observed burnt area

Simulated burnt area

Modelling fire in the global climate model

Fire risk and burnt area is simulated using temperature, humidity, windspeed and soil moisture

Simulated geographical and seasonal patterns of burnt area agree broadly with observations from satellite


Number of extra people flooded by 2050s due to sea level rise and population change

Largest increases in number of people flooded (>2 million per year) expected in Bangladesh, south-east India and east coast of China

Thousands of people


Storm surges

2080s minus present day A2 scenario

meters

Changes in 50-year storm surge height around UK

Water level up to 1.3m higher than present


Human Health

Food and fibre resources

Water resources

River flooding

Coastal Flooding

Climate ChangeQuantifying Uncertainty

Urban Heat Islands

Air Quality

Land Use

Ecosystems & biodiversity


Questions and answers

© Crown copyright Met · PDF fileRichard Betts, Martin Best, Pete Falloon, Simon...

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