Crown Agents Capital Markets Weekly · 2018. 6. 18. · Crown Agents Capital Markets Weekly 2...

Neil Michael

Chief Investment Strategist

Crown Agents Investment Management

[email protected]

+44 (0) 20 8643 2900

www.caiml.co.uk

Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK

Crown Agents

Capital Markets

Weekly 18 June 2018

Crown Agents Capital Markets Weekly

Table of Contents

Macroeconomic Highlights ................................................................................................................................ 2

Market Highlights ............................................................................................................................................... 2

United States ...................................................................................................................................................... 3

Canada ............................................................................................................................................................... 5

United Kingdom ................................................................................................................................................. 5

Eurozone ............................................................................................................................................................ 6

Japan .................................................................................................................................................................. 6

Emerging Markets .............................................................................................................................................. 6

Bonds ................................................................................................................................................................. 8

Equities ............................................................................................................................................................... 8

Currencies & Commodities ................................................................................................................................ 9

Market Performance % .................................................................................................................................... 11

Weekly Market Performance % ....................................................................................................................... 12

Contact Details and Contributors .................................................................................................................... 13

Disclaimer ......................................................................................................................................................... 14

Crown Agents Capital Markets Weekly 2

Executive Summary

Macroeconomic Highlights

• The year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index in the US accelerated to 2.8% from 2.5% prior and the core edged a tenth higher to 2.2%.

• The Federal Reserve voted to increase the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 1.75%-2.00% from 1.50-1.75% was a unanimous 8-0.

• US retail sales surprised significantly to the upside. Retail sales are now running at 5.9% year on year.

• The year-on-year rate of change of US import prices increased to 4.3%, the highest level since February 2017.

• US industrial production unexpectedly fell in May but is likely a temporary blip.

• UK employment growth was even stronger than forecast in the three months to April, at 146,000.

• UK unemployment stayed at 4.2% in the three months to April, consistent with the consensus of 4.2%.

• UK regular pay growth slipped slightly to 2.8%.

• UK annual CPI inflation was 2.4% in May, unchanged from April. Core inflation also held steady at 2.1% May,

• The European Central Bank announced that its monthly asset purchases will be reduced to 15 billion per month after September and finish at year-end.

• The ECB has hinted in its forward guidance that the first interest rate hike will come six months later in mid-2019.

• The Bank of Japan kept its policy settings unchanged as expected in an 8-1 vote.

• The People’s Bank of China left its reverse repo rates unchanged on Thursday, a surprise move, as the markets had expected a 5-basis point increase following the Fed’s 25 basis point rate hike.

Market Highlights

• Over the past week the US Treasury yield curve flattened as the short end of the curve remained unchanged while the long bond, Treasury 3.125% 15-May-2048, traded over 1% higher in price as its yield to maturity declined six basis points, from 3.09% to 3.03%.

• Rather than the central bank meetings, the equity markets were more disturbed at the end of the week, particularly on Friday, over further trade tariffs imposed by the US with retaliation by China.

• The UK index fell 1.7% on Friday and was down over the week, as was the broad US index (although Nasdaq was up). The European and Japanese indices were a little better with a small gain over the week.

• The VIX equity volatility index stayed relatively constant at 11.98 but still higher than the average seen in 2017.

• The broad USD marked one of its best weeks in years and central banks continued to show divergent activity, as Trump and trade issues are resurfacing in the headlines.

• The EUR was hit by the Governing Council surprising markets by updating its forward guidance and explaining that “well past the horizon” of QE means no earlier than nine months.

• Oil fell on recent speculation that, following the upcoming Vienna meeting, OPEC will aggressively lift production leading to an over-supplied market again.

• Spot gold fell to its lowest levels in nearly a month as momentum traders stepped up sales. A firmer USD, following recent gains for the greenback, continued to set the tone for lower bullion.


Global Macroeconomic Review

United States

US May’s CPI inflation was in-line with consensus expectations for both the headline (0.2%) and core (0.2%). As a result, the year-on-year rate of change accelerated to 2.8% from 2.5% prior and the core edged a tenth higher to 2.2%. While the growth rate of the headline is eye catching - the fastest since 2012 - the fact that the three-month annualised change in the headline is 1.5% suggests that momentum is due to diminish soon.

CPI service pressures exhibited a broad-based acceleration in most underlying categories, which is likely reflective of the ongoing pickup in labour costs. To be sure, consumer inflation is accelerating in 2018, and the core may come close to its cyclical peak of 2.3% assuming that a strong dollar does not clobber import prices. However, even though the core CPI is above 2%, it is not yet running at a pace consistent with 2% on the core PCE deflator. The latter consistently runs cooler than the former by about 30 bps, so the current 2.2% pace of core CPI growth remains just shy of what should result in a core PCE deflator appearing firmly at the Fed’s target -- but it is getting closer.

The Federal Reserve voted to increase the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 1.75%-2.00% from 1.50-1.75% was a unanimous 8-0. The composition

of the FOMC has shifted in a more hawkish direction this year, so the absence of dissents is not surprising. However, the December rate increase is certainly not yet a fait accompli; a dovish dissent could be in store, most likely from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic.

The June Fed statement did not reflect a substantial hawkish shift among policy makers, but rather a subtle recalibration of the policy course due to slightly firmer economic projections. Fed forecasts now show slightly faster growth in 2018, a deeper undershoot of the neutral unemployment rate and a bit more inflation as a result. In light of this, policy makers are leaning toward four, not three, hikes this year. Yet the decision for the fourth hike will ultimately depend on the evolution of the economy and financial conditions much later in the year. Importantly, while Fed officials have shifted toward a fourth hike, they continue to anticipate three in 2019 and have not changed their expectation for a 3.4% fed funds rate at the end of 2020. As such, they essentially pulled a rate increase out of 2020 and into 2018.

US retail sales surprised significantly to the upside. Retail sales are now running at 5.9% year on year, just shy of the 6.1% pace registered last November, which was the fastest since early 2012. The quarterly annualised pace is currently 5.3% and is due to accelerate further when the June data are available. This is already much faster than the first quarter (1.8%), but little more than half of the blowout in the final quarter of 2017 (9.7%). Consumer spending will resume its leadership role as a growth driver in the second quarter. Robust labour markets and

Chart 1: US CPI Inflation

Chart 2: Fed Dot Plot

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

Jun

-10

Jan

-11

Au

g-1

1

Mar

-12

Oct

-12

May

-13

Dec

-13

Jul-

14

Feb

-15

Sep

-15

Ap

r-1

6

No

v-1

6

Jun

-17

Jan

-18

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.5

1.75

2

2.25

2.5

2.75

3

3.25

3.5

3.75

2018 2019 2020 Longer Term

Difference With Mar 18 (RHS) Difference With Dec 17 (RHS)

FOMC Dots Median Jun 18 FOMC Dots Median Mar 18

FOMC Dots Median Dec 17


solid consumer sentiment are trumping marginally more expensive gas prices.

US import prices rose 0.6% in May, while the prior month was revised up to 0.6% from 0.3% as originally reported. The result boosted the year-on-year rate of change to 4.3%, the highest level since February 2017. Petroleum import prices continued to be a key driver, rising 5.9% in May, and 31.9% year on a year, leading to a more precipitous increase in overall import prices than ex- petroleum imports. Excluding fuel, the increase in import prices over the past year is a more benign 1.9%.

U.S import prices rose by more than expected in May - another early warning that the impact of tariffs is showing up in the production pipeline. Notably, steel and aluminium import prices crept up. This follows higher wholesale producer prices in May. Nevertheless, steel and aluminium imports totalled about $75 billion in 2017. That was less than 3% of total goods and services imports, so the direct impact is not dire - expanding retaliatory measures are the bigger concern.

US industrial production unexpectedly fell in May, slipping by 0.1% against a consensus estimate of a 0.2% rise. Output in the manufacturing sector unexpectedly fell 0.7% in May against expectations for no change. The declines are likely a temporary blip given the broader strength of the U.S economy, and rather reflect the major fire at a parts supplier, which stymied production.

While the capacity utilisation rate slipped to 77.9% from a three-year high of 78%, this does not change the outlook for business investment. As businesses continue to confront capacity limitations, they will be forced to either turn away orders or increase capital spending. There was already evidence of the latter in the first-quarter GDP report.

Chart 3: US Retail Sales

Chart 4: US Import Prices

Chart 5: US Investment vs Capacity Utilisation

-10-8-6-4-20246810

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Jun

-08

Mar

-09

Dec

-09

Sep

-10

Jun

-11

Mar

-12

Dec

-12

Sep

-13

Jun

-14

Mar

-15

Dec

-15

Sep

-16

Jun

-17

Mar

-18

Adjusted Retail Sales Gasoline Stations

(Total RS) - (RS Gas)

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jun

-98

Oct

-99

Feb

-01

Jun

-02

Oct

-03

Feb

-05

Jun

-06

Oct

-07

Feb

-09

Jun

-10

Oct

-11

Feb

-13

Jun

-14

Oct

-15

Feb

-17

US Import Price Index By End Use All Commodities NSA

US Import Price Index Excluding Petroleum NSA

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Mar

-00

Jul-

01

No

v-0

2

Mar

-04

Jul-

05

No

v-0

6

Mar

-08

Jul-

09

No

v-1

0

Mar

-12

Jul-

13

No

v-1

4

Mar

-16

Jul-

17

US Gross Private Domestic Investment Nonresidential Chained 2009 SAAR

US Capacity Utilization % of Total Capacity SA


Canada

The Teranet-National Bank Composite National House Price Index rose 1.0% in May. Ten of the 11 constituent metropolitan areas recorded advances in the month, with Victoria (+1.8%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (+1.7%) leading the pack. The index for Halifax was flat. On a y/y basis, the composite index rose 4.5%, the smallest such increase since June 2015.

Canadian manufacturing shipments fell 1.3% m-on-m in April after two good results in February and March (+2.7% and +1.4% respectively). Of concern is the steady increase since the end of 2016 of the real inventory-to-shipments ratio, which hit an 8 year high in April after experiencing its largest monthly upswing in over 3 years. Such an inventory build-up hints towards manufacturers having difficulty clearing inventory and is not reassuring for future production, especially in a context of growing trade uncertainty.

United Kingdom

UK employment growth was even stronger than forecast in the three months to April, at 146,000. The rate consistent with the economy staying on trend is just 30,000. Unemployment stayed at 4.2% in the three months to April, consistent with the consensus of 4.2%. Regular pay growth slipped slightly to 2.8%. Wage growth just shy of 3.5% is probably consistent with the BOE’s inflation target -- there’s clearly a bit further to go but progress has been made in the past couple of quarters.

That strong gains in employment have continued through the economy’s weak first quarter and into the second suggests the growth slowdown was temporary. Add in relatively solid wage gains and this report offers the Bank of England good reasons to lift rates in August.

UK annual CPI inflation was 2.4% in May, unchanged from April. Core inflation also held steady at 2.1% May, matching the consensus estimate. Transport costs created the biggest push up on the annual rate in May, compared with April, adding about a quarter of a percentage point. Of this, more than half was due to the rising cost of fuel, reflecting surging oil prices. Much of the rest came from airfares. Were it not for a jump in oil costs, the headline reading would have slipped, reflecting the waning influence of sterling depreciation.

Chart 6: UK Employment

Chart 7: UK CPI Inflation

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

Jan

-98

Jun

-99

No

v-0

0

Ap

r-0

2

Sep

-03

Feb

-05

Jul-

06

Dec

-07

May

-09

Oct

-10

Mar

-12

Au

g-1

3

Jan

-15

Jun

-16

No

v-1

7

UK Bloomberg Indicator of Real-Time Employment

UK Labour Force Employment Change

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Jun

-12

No

v-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Sep

-13

Feb

-14

Jul-

14

Dec

-14

May

-15

Oct

-15

Mar

-16

Au

g-1

6

Jan

-17

Jun

-17

No

v-1

7

Ap

r-1

8


Eurozone

The European Central Bank announced that its monthly asset purchases will be reduced to 15 billion per month after September and finish at year-end. The ECB has hinted in its forward guidance that the first interest rate hike will come six months later in mid-2019.

The Eurozone economy has almost completely recovered from the euro crisis, wage growth is picking up and underlying inflation is showing signs of life. And the ECB decided to act.

Eurozone inflation in May was unrevised from the previously reported 1.9% and up from 1.2% in April. That figure came as a shock when it was initially published at the end of May, with consensus forecasts centred on 1.6%. The core reading was also unrevised at 1.1%, up from 0.7% in April.

Prices at the pump rose sharply for motorists in May. But other transport prices - such as airfares - also acted as a boost and so did the cost of recreation and culture. Parts of these latter categories also appear in the core index and account for much of the jump recorded in that reading this month too. Looking below the surface the super-core gauge of underlying cost pressure has recorded a step change in recent quarters. That supports the European Central Bank’s decision to bring asset purchases to an end this year.

Japan

The Bank of Japan kept its policy settings unchanged as expected in an 8-1 vote. The BOJ downgraded its core CPI assessment. With the dollar above 110 yen, the forex market is going in the right direction for the BOJ. A weaker currency spurs import prices and helps exports - supporting the business cycle. The BOJ’s next move is most likely to be an incremental boost to its yield-curve targets, possibly around October. Such a move would be taken in line with a renewed pickup in inflation, real interest rates would be unchanged - implying no pullback in the BOJ’s stimulus. It is likely that the BOJ will be patient, reflecting its confidence that the recent lull in inflation will pass, as a stronger Japanese economy and faster wage growth stoke price pressures.

Emerging Markets

Chinese total social finance, China’s broadest gauge of new lending and equity finance, fell to 760.8 billion yuan from 1.56 trillion yuan in April. That was the smallest amount since July 2016. It was also far below the consensus estimate of 1.3 trillion yuan and 1.06 trillion yuan in May 2017. The 799.7 billion yuan decline in total social financing was about four times the size of the average drop of 189.7 billion yuan in the same month over the past five years.

Chart 8: Eurozone Super-core Inflation

Chart 9: China Financing

-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Dec

-11

Jun

-12

Dec

-12

Jun

-13

Dec

-13

Jun

-14

Dec

-14

Jun

-15

Dec

-15

Jun

-16

Dec

-16

Jun

-17

Dec

-17

Compensation per Employee

Supercore Inflation (BE Estimate)

Euro-Area Output Gap (BE Estimate)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

-100-50

050

100150200250300350400

Jun

-08

Ap

r-0

9

Feb

-10

Dec

-10

Oct

-11

Au

g-1

2

Jun

-13

Ap

r-1

4

Feb

-15

Dec

-15

Oct

-16

Au

g-1

7

China All-system Financing Aggregate

China All-system Financing Aggregate


A surprisingly large slump in new credit in May suggests China’s deleveraging agenda is gaining traction. The drop in shadow bank lending was particularly sharp. It’s that area where one would expect policy makers to focus their deleveraging efforts at first, as it’s the most opaque and riskiest segment of credit. In contrast, bank loans were relatively stable. Overall, expansion in outstanding credit slowed further - implying a slightly heavier drag on growth.

The Chinese economy has been surprising resilient this year, buoyed in part by solid global demand. But growth will probably slow in 2H, as headwinds from credit, slowing exports, and a cooling property sector become stronger. The push to curb credit growth even as risks from trade tensions with the U.S. rise suggests strong determination to deleverage the economy.

The People’s Bank of China left its reverse repo rates unchanged on Thursday, a surprise move as the markets had expected a 5 basis point increase following the Fed’s 25 basis point rate hike. Keeping repo rates on hold looks like a break with past practice. The decision not to do so today looks like an indication that the PBOC is more focused on supporting growth and alleviating financial stress as markets fear an increase in corporate defaults. Remarks from China’s central bank governor Yi Gang - speaking at a forum in Shanghai on Thursday - also had a pro-growth tilt. He promised to support small businesses with reserve requirement cuts and relending. In the past, a significant part of the PBOC’s motivation in following the Fed came from the need to stabilize the yuan. Right now, that may not be such a pressing concern - especially as the U.S. threatens to move ahead with tariffs.

Consumer confidence in South Africa jumped sharply in the first quarter of the year. Hopes for more business-friendly government policy, along with attempts to rein in alleged corruption and "state capture," should encourage more foreign investment in South Africa. Previously weak business and consumer confidence, which dragged on investment and held back bank lending over 2016-17, is showing signs of recovery, though the surge in consumer confidence is unlikely to prove sustainable. Higher confidence and activity levels boost revenue opportunities for local banks by raising credit demand.

Nigeria headline inflation moderated in May to 11.6% y-o-y from 12.5% in April, slightly above consensus expectations. Food inflation, which has been the major force driving CPI prints lower in recent months, continued to slow, moderating by 1.4ppt to a two-year low of 13.4% y-o-y, largely driven by disinflation for dairy products, tea, coffee and oils which more than offset rising price growth for bread and cereals, vegetables and meat products.

Chart 10: China Repo Rate

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Jun

-15

Sep

-15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

Dec

-16

Mar

-17

Jun

-17

Sep

-17

Dec

-17

Mar

-18

Jun

-18

Peoples Bank of China Reverse Repurchase Notes 7 Day Rate

Federal Funds Target Rate - Upper Bound

CFETS China Interbank Repo 7 Day VWAP (Volume Weight Average Price)


Global Market Review

Bonds

Global bond yields declined as curves flattened. Over the past week the US Treasury yield curve flattened as the short end of the curve remained unchanged while the long bond, Treasury 3.125% 15-May-2048, traded over 1% higher in price as its yield to maturity declined six basis points, from 3.09% to 3.03%.

As expected, the Federal Reserve increased the funds rate by 25 basis points, to 1.75% - 2.00% at the Federal Open Markets Committee meeting last week. The accompanying FOMC statement highlighted a firmer economic backdrop, noting that the unemployment rate had declined while household spending had picked up. Regarding the outlook for interest rates, the Fed stated that further gradual increases in the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity. Risks are now fairly evenly balanced for either one or two further rate hikes by the end of the year. The revised dot plot projection for the funds rate at the end of 2018 showed that the median expectation has risen from one increase to two increases, which would take the rate to 2.25% -2.50%.

The European Central Bank meeting last Thursday provided a rather more specific update on quantitative easing. Net asset purchases will finish at the end of December this year, while the fourth quarter pace will be tapered to EUR 15 billion per month. Regarding the outlook for monetary policy, this was rather more dovish – the ECB stated that they would keep interest rates unchanged until at least the summer of 2019.

Emerging fixed income was generally weaker as sentiment turned negative with Eastern Europe and Latin America seeing strong selling pressures on the hawkish Fed statement. A resurgent dollar, rising global interest rates, and falling investor risk tolerance have been driving the sell-off, which has most dramatically affected the currencies of countries with large current-account deficits and high rates of inflation. In response, several emerging markets’ central banks have been intervening in local currency markets and raising rates. Thus far in June, central banks in India, Turkey, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Hong Kong have raised rates.

Chart 11: Five Day Bond Market Performance %

Equities

Last week was billed as a being a pivotal week for markets as the summit between the US and North Korea took place, followed by meetings of the three key central banks – the US Fed, the ECB in Europe and the Bank of Japan.

In the event, the accord reached at the historic meeting between the US president and the leader of north Korea had little impact on markets; indeed, the agreement looks remarkably similar to three previous accords reached over the past 26 years, none of which have persuaded North Korea to change course. Nevertheless, hope springs eternal.

Rather than the central bank meetings, the equity markets were more disturbed at the end of the week, particularly on Friday, over further trade tariffs imposed by the US with retaliation by China. The UK index fell 1.7% on Friday and was down over the week, as was the broad US index (although Nasdaq was up). The European and Japanese indices were a little better with a small gain over the week.

The VIX equity volatility index stayed relatively constant at 11.98 but still higher than the average seen in 2017.

In major company news, US regulators came to the decision to permit the AT&T bid for Time Warner to proceed giving a boost to media stocks. Fox shares rose strongly +8% (they have almost doubled in the last year) as the market expected that Comcast would bid which

98

98.5

99

99.5

100

100.5

101

101.5

US1-10 Yr Treasury UK 1-10 Yr Gilt Euro 1-10 Yr Gov

Global IG Corp Global HY Corp EM Bonds


they duly did with the deal worth $65bn. Elsewhere it was reported that medical devices maker Stryker had approached Boston Scientific to acquire the business pushing up their share price by over 7%.

And in the UK, this was the week of the keenly awaited AGM of advertising giant WPP. The company, run by founder Martin Sorrell for over 35 years, has recently suffered considerable adverse publicity over his departure amid allegations of his aggressive behaviour towards staff and blurring of company and personal funds by Sorrell himself – an allegation he denies. In the event there was a significant vote against the chairman but he survived and the a significant, but minority vote against the remuneration policies. Elsewhere, cigarette company BAT had a trading update which was disappointing on ‘Glo’ cigarettes. The slowdown puts in doubt the company’s aim of more than doublings its revenue from alternative cigarettes to more than £1bn this year. Elsewhere in Europe, Unilever gave a relatively weak trading update and stated that company will likely abandon its London listing when it moves wholly to Netherlands. The stock was down 3%.

Emerging market assets weakened with the FTSE EM Index declining by 1.48%, while the FTSE Developed declined by 0.24%. The FOMC’s hawkish message has clearly added to the headwinds that emerging markets have been facing and is likely to prompt another round of currency weakness. Anecdotally it seems that some EM investors are reallocating their EM positions to assets with no FX risk.

Chart 12: Five Day Equity Market Performance %

Currencies & Commodities

The broad USD marked one of its best weeks in years and central banks continued to show divergent activity, as Trump and trade issues are resurfacing in the headlines. The USD has held onto the bulk of the gains prompted by the ECB’s dovish message at the June meeting. In less eventful central-bank moves, the Bank of Japan, which is expected to be one of the last developed-market policy makers to move on interest rates, kept short-term interest rate at minus 0.1% and its target for the yield on 10-year government bonds at around 0%, The imposition of US tariffs to China and the corresponding retaliation has negatively impacted commodity currencies such as CAD and AUD.

The EUR was hit by the Governing Council surprising markets by updating its forward guidance and explaining that “well past the horizon” of QE means no earlier than nine months. The nine-month forward guidance versus market expectation of six-months was on the dovish side. A still-large overhang of stale EUR longs could add to selling pressure near-term, especially with German political uncertainty on the rise with the longevity of the grand coalition potentially threatened by immigration policy.

GBP-USD weakened on USD strength even with better than expected retail sales data for May.

The JPY has declined but no longer appears so fixated on BoJ bond purchases. The central bank announced that it had reduced its pace of bond purchases in the 3-5 year part of the curve. The BoJ kept policy unchanged as expected, accepting that for now at least inflation is further from target. The policy statement noted that inflation is “in the range of 0.5- 1.0%”, a revision in language from “around 1%” previously. Technically the JPY continues to straddle the 200-day moving average at 110.23

The AUD has been under pressure on USD strength after the imbalance between central banks retook centre stage, and renewed tensions between China and the US over a trade war were behind the pair’s decline. Further, local and Chinese macro data disappointed adding pressure on the commodity related currency.

Spot gold fell to its lowest levels in nearly a month as momentum traders stepped up sales. A firmer USD, following recent gains for the greenback, continued to set the tone for lower bullion. Bullion had been supported early on by higher inflation data. Gold prices slumped despite news that China announced plans to retaliate

98

99

100

101

102

103

S&P 500 FTSE 100 EuroStoxx50 Topix MSCI EM


against US tariffs on USDD50bn of China imports, while weaker equities also held little apparent support for gold prices.

Oil fell on recent speculation that, following the upcoming Vienna meeting, OPEC will aggressively lift production leading to an over-supplied market again, together with the looming US-initiated trade war with the rest of the world contributing materially to the most recent declines. The latest EIA report showed a sizable weekly climb in total U.S. crude production.

Most commodity markets weakened as trade tensions are again bubbling to the surface. Copper was down as potential labour concerns out of Chile continued to fade. In this regard, the union at BHP’s Escondida copper mine said that it saw a “favourable scenario” for reaching a deal with management and added that the company promised to respond to its recent proposal for a new contract within the week.

Chart 13: Five Day Currency/Commodity Market Performance %

95

96

97

98

99

100

101

102

Trade Weighted Dollar GBP

EUR JPY

Oil Gold


Market Performance %


Weekly Market Performance %


Contact Details and Contributors

Group Contact Investment/Research Team & Contributors

[email protected]

+44 (0) 20 8643 2900

+44 (0) 20 8643 7222

www.caiml.co.uk

Crown Agents Investment Management.

St Nicholas House, St Nicholas Road,

Sutton, Surrey,

SM1 1EL.

United Kingdom.

Ritesh Anand

Executive Vice President

[email protected]

Charles Thomson

Senior Fixed Income Fund Manager

[email protected]

Neil Michael

Chief Investment Strategist

[email protected]

Slawomir Soroczynski

Senior Fixed Income Fund Manager

[email protected]

Robin Woodall

Senior Equities Fund Manager

[email protected]

Simon Price

Senior Equity Fund Manager

[email protected]

Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK.

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.caiml.co.uk/








Disclaimer

This communication is intended for professional clients and eligible counterparties only. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Performance results are calculated before management fees and after trading expenses.

Information contained in this publication is compiled from industry sources which we consider to be accurate and reliable. There is no representation or warranty of any kind, whether express or implied, regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information given. The information provided does not constitute advice and it should not be relied on as such.

Any views or opinions expressed are those of Crown Agents Investment Management Ltd and are subject to change due to market and other conditions and should not be taken as statements of policy or intent.

Crown Agents Investment Management Ltd accept no liability for the impact of any decisions made based on the information provided in this publication.

Crown Agents Investment Management Limited. Registered in England & Wales. No: 2169973. Vat Reg No: GB 340 679841. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

Source data and charts provided by Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Crown Agents Capital Markets Weekly · 2018. 6. 18. · Crown Agents Capital Markets Weekly 2...

Documents

Transcript of Crown Agents Capital Markets Weekly · 2018. 6. 18. · Crown Agents Capital Markets Weekly 2...