Cross boundary flood risk

Aline te Linde

Nijmegen

20 september 2012

Transboundary flood risk management

The Rhine basin

© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012

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CV Aline te Linde

1995 – 2001 Earth Sciences, VU University Amsterdam

MSc hydrology

2002 – 2007 WL | Delft Hydraulics

Integrated Water Management

2008 – 2012 Deltares

Unit Scenarios and Policy Analysis

2006 – present Institute for Environmental Studies, VU A’dam

PhD - 2011

2012 – present Twynstra Gudde Consultants and Managers

Advisory group Water


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http://www.ubvu.vu.nl


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River manager has four questions

1. How often does this happen?

2. What is the expected damage?

3. Does this change in the future?

4. Which measures can I take?

Flood risk = probabiliy x damage

Scenarios

– Climate change

– Socio-economic / land use


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Rhine

length: 1320 km

shipping > 200 t/year

River basin

surface area: 185.000 km2

7 countries

58 million inhabitants

11 million in flood prone areas


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Design discharge Lobith

19 september 2012


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Text

Land use Water depth Potential damage


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Risk = probability x damage


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Risk = probability x damage


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Increase flood risk entire

River basin:

54 – 230% in 2030

(reference = 2000)


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Transboundary floods

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1926


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Transboundary low flows

NL = most downstream country

Alpine water towers

Low flows: ~90 % of Rhine discharge from the Alps


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Transboundary policy

EU legislation for all countries

– EU Water Framework Directive (2000)

commits European Union member states to achieve good qualitative and

quantitative status of all water bodies by 2015

– EU Floods Directive (2007)

“Member States shall furthermore coordinate their flood risk management practices

in shared river basins, […] and shall in solidarity not undertake measures that

would increase the flood risk in neighbouring countries.”

Transboundary cooperation obviously relevant for downstream

countries

, however


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The Dutch Delta Programme

“The object of the new-style Delta Plan (the Delta Works of the future)

is to protect our country against high water and keep our

freshwater supply up to standard, now and in the future.”

http://www.deltacommissaris.nl/english/

Quite revolutionary:

– Integrated plan (combine functions and scales)

– Act now, and not after a next flooding disaster

– Long-term planning


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Delta Programme

– 3 Generic Programmes

• Safety

• Fresh water

• New urban developments and

restructuring

– 6 Area-based sub-programmes

– Delta Commissioner and small

staff

– 5 Delta Decisions in 2015

– Delta Law

– Delta Fund

– 2050 en 2100


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Scope is national

– Models of Rhine, Meuse and smaller rivers start at the Dutch

border

– Water safety

– Low flow / drought analysis

– Possibility of cross-boundary flooding not taken into account

Except:

– Climate scenarios projections for future discharge regime (Rhine and Meuse models do include whole basin)

– Some interest now in upstream water use Rhine basin


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Final remarks

River management DP rather conservative approach, not

transboundary

Very strong believe in exact design discharge at the border,

while in fact this is very uncertain:

1. High safety norm – extreme value statistics

2. Impact of climate change – scenarios / bandwidth

3. Potential of cross-boundary flooding

Why a national scope of the Delta Programme and Delta law?

Does this result in optimal measures?

How does this link to transboundary European legislation?


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Aline te Linde

[email protected]

www.twynstragudde.nl

www.deltares.nl

www.ivm.vu.nl

http://www.twynstragudde.nl/

Cross boundary flood risk

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