www.bpdb.gov.bd

Md. Mizanur Rahman

Chief Engineer, Planning and Design, BPDB

April 29, 2014

Cross Border Power Trade

with Neighboring Countries

Bangladesh

www.bpdb.gov.bd 2

Economy of Bangladesh at a Glance

INDIA

CHINA

DHAKA

KHULNA

RAJSHAHI

SYLHET

CHITTAGONG

BARISAL

INDIA

INDIA

INDIA

200 miles

500 km

Official Name : People’s Republic of

Bangladesh

Political System: Parliamentary Democracy

Area : 147,570 km2

Population : 154 million

Total Exports : USD 27 billon (FY2013)

Total Imports : USD 34 billon (FY2013)

Remittance : USD 14.5 billon (FY2013)

Forex Reserve : USD 20 billion

GDP Per Capita : USD 1044 (FY 2013)

Power Capacity : 10,000 MW

www.bpdb.gov.bd 33

3.3

5.04.6

4.1

4.9

4.6

5.4 5.2

4.9

5.9

5.3

4.4

5.3

6.36.0

6.6 6.4 6.25.7

6.1

6.7

6.3 6.03

2

3

4

5

6

7

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Re

al

GD

P G

ro

wth

(%

)

Natural Disasters External Shocks Linear Trend line (Real GDP Growth)

Tropical Cyclone 04B:

Casualty: 650 people

17,000 cattle.

Severe Floods: 36% of

the country flooded 36

mn people affected.

Cyclone Sidr: 3500 people

killed

Major floods: 500 died, 30%

of the country affected

Tropical catastrophic

cyclone

Most severe flooding in modern

history : 66% of the land affected,

1000 deaths 26,000 livestock lost,

16,000 km roads damaged.

Bangladesh has maintained consistent growth and never defaulted on its internal or external debt obligations despite the Asian and

Global Financial Crises, numerous political upheavals and countless natural disasters. This consistency is practically unrivaled

amongst countries of a similar level of development

GROWTH IS REMARKABLY STABLE AGAINST ALL SHOCKSResilient growth despite regular political, environmental and external setbacks

Cyclone 2B:

Casualty: 400

people

8,000 cattle

Very severe

tropical

Cyclone BOB 01

Asian

Economic

Crisis

Very severe cyclonic storm BOB

06:

300,000 affected,

8755 homes destroyed

MFA

Phase Out

Oil Price

reaches

>US$140/b

Economic

Crisis

Slowdown

after 9/11

www.bpdb.gov.bd

GDP Growth, Electricity Demand and Challenges

With sustained GDP Growth, Electricity demand is

increasing at a rate of 9 -12 %

To meet this demand growth, power sector is facing

challenges mainly:

- Shortage of primary fuel supply from indigenous resources

- Financing capital intensive power projects

www.bpdb.gov.bd

88

3

68

1

1,0

31

1,2

02

1,2

56

1,3

87

1,5

38

1,8

17

2,0

16

2,2

36

2,5

29

2,8

85

3,2

61

3,7

68

4

,30

2

4,5

60

5,3

08

6,2

14

6,7

59

7,3

45

7,8

57

8,4

50

8,7

46

9,2

95

1

0,2

66

10

,90

1

11

,24

3

12

,19

4

13

,63

8

14

,73

9

16

,25

5

17

,44

5

18

,45

8

20

,30

2

21

,40

8

22

,97

8

23

,26

8

24

,94

6

26

,53

3

29

,24

7

31

,35

5

35

,11

8

38

,22

9

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

19

70

-71

19

72

-73

19

74

-75

19

76

-77

19

78

-79

19

80

-81

19

82

-83

19

84

-85

19

86

-87

19

88

-89

19

90

-91

19

92

-93

19

94

-95

19

96

-97

19

98

-99

20

00

-01

20

02

-03

20

04

-05

20

06

-07

20

08

-09

20

10

-11

20

12

-13

Net Energy Generation in GWh

Historical Energy Net Generation (GWh) in Bangladesh

www.bpdb.gov.bd

Strategic Policy on Power

Fuel diversity and sustainable supply of primary fuel

Private sector participation in power generation

Harnessing renewable energy resources

Demand Side Management (DSM) and Energy

Efficiency improvement program

Regional Co-operation on Cross Boarder Power

Trade

www.bpdb.gov.bd

Bangladesh’s Power Sector: At a Glance

Installed Generation Capacity : 10,341 MW

Electricity Growth : 9 -12 %

Total Consumers : 14.2 Million

Transmission Lines : 9,300 km

Distribution Lines : 290,000 km

Per Capita Generation (Inc Captive): 321 kWh

Access to Electricity (Inc 7% RE) : 62 %

7

www.bpdb.gov.bd

Present Generation Capacity (March, 2014)

8

Public Sector

SL Installed Generation Capacity (MW)

1. BPDB 4186

2. APSCL 777

3. EGCB 622

4. NWPGCL 300

5. RPCL 77

Subtotal 5,962 (58%)

Private Sector

1. IPPs 1783

2. 15 YR. Rental 167

3. 3/5 YR. Rental 1929

4. Power Import 500

Subtotal 4,379 (42%)

Total 10,341

www.bpdb.gov.bd 9

Typical Demand Curve

0300600900

12001500180021002400270030003300360039004200450048005100540057006000630066006900720075007800810084008700

0:00

1:00

2:00

3:00

4:00

5:00

6:00

7:00

8:00

9:00

10:00

11:00

12:00

13:00

14:00

15:00

16:00

17:00

18:00

19:00

20:00

21:00

22:00

23:00

24:00

Load

(MW

)

Typical demand for FY 2012-2013

July'12 August'12 September'12 October'12November'12 December'12 January'13 February'13March'13 April'13 May'13 June'13

www.bpdb.gov.bd 10

Present Power Market in

Bangladesh

www.bpdb.gov.bd

Present Structure of Power Sector

Apex InstitutionPower Division, Ministry of Power, Energy & Mineral Resources (MPEMR)

RegulatorBangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission (BERC)

Generation Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB)

Ashuganj Power Station Company Ltd. (APSCL)

Electricity Generation Company of Bangladesh (EGCB)

North West Power Generation Company Ltd. (NWPGCL)

Coal Power Generation Company Bangladesh Ltd. (CPGCL)

Independent Power Producers (IPPs)

Transmission Power Grid Company of Bangladesh Ltd (PGCB)

Distribution Dhaka Power Distribution Company (DPDC)

Dhaka Electric Supply Company Ltd (DESCO)

Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB)

West Zone Power Distribution Company (WZPDC)

Rural Electrification Board (REB) through Rural Co-operatives

www.bpdb.gov.bd12

Single Buyer Power Market

BPDB Acts as a Single Buyer

Purchaser & Seller of power as a “Single Buyer”- Purchase electricity from generators (public and private) under

long term PPA

- Sells to distribution entities at Bulk Tariff, set by BERC

- BPDB responsible for demand-supply balance and prepare least

cost generation expansion plan

www.bpdb.gov.bd 13

Primary Fuel Supply

Options for Bangladesh

www.bpdb.gov.bd14

Fuel Mix: FY-2010 & 2013

Hydro2.34%

Natural Gas

78.12%

Furnace Oil

14.56%

Diesel1.95% Coal

3.02%

Total Net Generation : 38,229 M kWh

FY-2013

Gas

89.21%

FO

3.00%

Diesel

1.76%

Hydro

2.50%Coal

3.53%

FY-2010

Total Net Generation : 29,247 M kWh

www.bpdb.gov.bd 15

Primary Fuel Options: Indigenous Resources

Gas: Only 16 tcf proven reserve; No significant gas discovery in recent years; Depleting gas reserve restricts gas based generation expansion; R/P ration is only about 20 years.

Hydro: Present capacity 230 MW and average energy generation- 800 GWh; No further significant potential

Coal: Total 3.2 billion ton reserve in 5 mines; Near term option; Base Load; Mines are in densely populated areas

Renewable: Present capacity only 120 MW; Mostly SHS; still high cost

www.bpdb.gov.bd 16

Coal Import: Indonesia, Australia, South Africa

LNG Import

Oil- Volatile Market

Nuclear

Regional Hydro Power Import- Cross Boarder Power Trade

Import Options as Indigenous resources are Inadequate

Primary Fuel Supply Options: Import

www.bpdb.gov.bd 17

Long Term Power Generation Expansion

Plan

www.bpdb.gov.bd 18

PSMP Peak Demand Forecast 2030

FYGDP growth

rateElasticity Effect of DSM

Electricity

growth rate

Total Demand

without DSM

Total Demand with DSM

Off-grid

captive demand

Grid System

Demand with

DSM

Unit [%] - [%] [%] [MW] [MW] [MW] [MW]

2010 5.5% 1.50 5.0% 7,454 7,454 1,000 6,4542011 6.7% 1.50 5.0% 4.5% 8,203 7,793 1,027 6,7652012 7.0% 1.50 5.0% 10.5% 9,064 8,611 1,093 7,5182013 7.0% 1.50 5.0% 10.5% 10,016 9,515 1,166 8,3492014 7.0% 1.50 5.0% 10.5% 11,068 10,514 1,246 9,2682015 7.0% 1.50 5.0% 10.5% 12,230 11,618 1,335 10,2832016 7.0% 1.50 5.0% 10.5% 13,514 12,838 1,433 11,4052017 7.0% 1.50 5.0% 10.5% 14,933 14,186 1,542 12,6442018 7.0% 1.50 5.0% 10.5% 16,501 15,676 1,662 14,0142019 7.0% 1.50 5.0% 10.5% 18,233 17,322 1,794 15,5272020 7.0% 1.40 6.0% 8.6% 20,020 18,819 1,515 17,3042021 7.0% 1.35 6.5% 8.9% 21,912 20,488 1,649 18,8382022 7.0% 1.30 7.0% 8.5% 23,906 22,233 1,790 20,4432023 7.0% 1.25 8.0% 7.6% 25,998 23,918 1,925 21,9932024 7.0% 1.20 9.0% 7.2% 28,182 25,645 2,064 23,5812025 7.0% 1.15 10.0% 6.9% 30,450 27,405 2,206 25,1992026 7.0% 1.10 11.0% 6.5% 32,795 29,187 2,349 26,8382027 7.0% 1.05 12.0% 6.1% 35,205 30,981 2,494 28,4872028 7.0% 1.00 13.0% 5.8% 37,670 32,773 2,638 30,1342029 7.0% 1.00 14.0% 5.8% 40,306 34,664 2,790 31,8732030 7.0% 1.00 15.0% 5.8% 43,128 36,659 2,951 33,708

www.bpdb.gov.bd 19

Power Generation Plan: Primary Fuel Sources by 2030

Sl.

No.Description Capacity (MW) % Possible Location (s)

1 Domestic Coal 11,25051

North West Region at Mine Mouth

2 Imported Coal 8,400 Chittagong and Khulna

3 Domestic Gas/LNG 8,850 23Gas- Near Load Centers

LNG- Near Costal Area

4 Regional Grid 3,500 9Bahrampur - Bheramara, Silchar -

Fenchuganj, Purnia- Barapukuria-

Bongaigaon, Myanmar - Chittagong

5 Nuclear 4,000 10 Rooppur

6Others (Oil, Hydro

and Renewable)2,700 7 Near Load Centers

Total 38,700

www.bpdb.gov.bd

Chittagong 3x660MW

Import Coal

Road Map for Coal Power Development (as of 2030)

: Potential Coal PS

: Potential Coal Center

: Ocean-going vessel

: Transship

Khulna 2x660MW (Dom Future)

Domestic Coal

K-D-P 6x1000 MW USC

K-D-P 8x 600 MW USC

Matarbari

Coal Center

Zajira/New Meg 3x600MW

Chittagong

Moheshkhali

Island

Railway

Total 19,200MW (New)

Moheshkhali/Matarbari 4x600MW

Meghnaghat 2x600MW

www.bpdb.gov.bd

FENCHUGANJ

SILCHARFENCHUGANJ

BHERAMARABAHARAMPUR

BAHARAMPURBHERAMARA

NR/ WR of IndiaBARAPUKURIA

500MW [2013-]

500MW [2018-]

2000MW500 MW

Regional Power Exchange: Possibilities

MYANMARCHITTAGONG

500 MW

RANGIA/ROWTABARAPUKURIA

2000MW

TRIPURACOMILLA

100 MW

www.bpdb.gov.bd

BOGRASOUTH

BHERAMARA

NAOGAON

NIAMATPUR

FARRAKA

SUBHASGRAM

KATWA

GOKARNA

JEERAT

KHULNA(SOUTH)

BOTTAIL

BAHARAMPUR

CH. NAWABGANJ

RAGHUNATHGANJ

KA

HA

LGA

ON

SAGARDIGHI

RAJSHAHI

BAHARAMPUR

ISHURDI

NATORE

KHEJURIA

FARIDPUR

BAGHABARI

GHORASAL

MA

DH

OP

UR

SHAHJAD

PABNAPUR

SIRAJGANJ

BOGRA

INTERCONNECTION BETWEEN INDIA AND BANGLADESH GRIDS

400 kV230 kV132 kV

THE PROJECT

LEGEND

BAKRESHWAR

KOLAGHAT

BANGLADESH

INDIA

400kV D/c

(400 KV)

MALDA

DHULIAN

DURGAPUR

Existing

Under Constr. / Future

JAYPURHAT BARAPUKURIA

First Regional Power Inter-Connection Line

www.bpdb.gov.bd

Case-1

Case-2

Case-3

Possible Next Cross Border Interconnections

www.bpdb.gov.bd

Proposed interconnection :

- +800kV, 6500 MW HVDC multi-terminal line from Rangia/Rowta (India) - Jamalpur/Barapukuria

(Bangladesh) - suitable location in WR/NR/SR (India).

- Establishment of +800kV, 6500 MW HVDC terminal station at Rangia/Rowta.

- Establishment of +800kV, 500/1000 MW HVDC terminal station at Jamalpur/Barapukuria.

- Establishment of 400kV substation at Rangia/Rowta by looping in and looping out of Balipara –

Bongaigaon 400kV D/c line (quad conductor)

- Establishment of +800kV, 5500 MW HVDC terminal station at suitable location in

Western/Northern/Southern Region.

Next Asynchronous Interconnection

www.bpdb.gov.bd 25

Present Power Import

250 MW Import from unallocated resource of Indian

Government; NVVN is the nodal agency for power trade

250 MW power from Indian market through PTC for short

term 3 yr contract

30 MW from IEX is under consideration

Present Power Trade Through 1st Inter-connector

www.bpdb.gov.bd 26

Power Import in Future

Long Term Contract mainly with IPPs developing HEP in

Arunachal, Nepal and Bhutan

Short Term Contract from Indian Power Market

Power Trade from ‘Regional Power Market’ in future where

Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka will

participate

BPDB can participate in the ‘Regional Power Market’ as it

is Single Buyer in the local market

Future Power Trade

www.bpdb.gov.bd 27

Conclusion

Diversity of power sources will ensure energy security in

Bangladesh

Availability of power at competitive price is a pre-condition

for power market in South Asia

Development of hydro resources in North-Eastern India,

Nepal, Bhutan and Power Trade among neighboring

countries will bring economic benefits to all the countries.

Establishment of ‘Regional Power Market’ is utmost priority

for maximizing benefits and ensuring energy security in

South Asia

www.bpdb.gov.bd 28

Thank you