Cross Border Movements of People Deepak Nayyar

Click here to load reader

  • date post

    01-Jan-2017
  • Category

    Documents

  • view

    216
  • download

    0

Embed Size (px)

Transcript of Cross Border Movements of People Deepak Nayyar

  • Working Papers N

    o. 194

    August 2000

    Cross-Border Movements of People

    Deepak Nayyar

  • 818:RUOG,QVWLWXWHIRU'HYHORSPHQW(FRQRPLFV5HVHDUFK818:,'(5

    :RUNLQJ3DSHUV1R

    &URVV%RUGHU0RYHPHQWVRI3HRSOH

    'HHSDN1D\\DU

    $XJXVW

    7KLV VWXG\ KDV EHHQ SUHSDUHG ZLWKLQ WKH 818:,'(5 SURMHFW RQ 1HZ5ROHV DQG )XQFWLRQV IRU WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV DQG WKH %UHWWRQ :RRGV,QVWLWXWLRQVZKLFKLVGLUHFWHGE\3URIHVVRU'HHSDN1D\\DU

    818:,'(5 JUDWHIXOO\ DFNQRZOHGJHV WKH ILQDQFLDO FRQWULEXWLRQV WR WKHSURMHFW E\ WKH 0LQLVWU\ IRU )RUHLJQ $IIDLUV RI )LQODQG DQG WKH 8QLWHG1DWLRQV'HSDUWPHQWRI(FRQRPLFDQG6RFLDO$IIDLUV'LYLVLRQ IRU6RFLDO3ROLF\DQG'HYHORSPHQW

    3URIHVVRU1D\\DULV9LFH&KDQFHOORURIWKH8QLYHUVLW\RI'HOKL

  • 818:RUOG,QVWLWXWHIRU'HYHORSPHQW(FRQRPLFV5HVHDUFK818:,'(5$UHVHDUFKDQGWUDLQLQJFHQWUHRIWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQV8QLYHUVLW\

    7KH%RDUGRI818:,'(5

    1RUD/XVWLJ+DUULV0XWLR0XOH-XNND3HNNDULQHQ9LFH&KDLUSHUVRQ5XEHQ

  • LLL

    &217(176

    $%675$&7 LY

    , ,1752'8&7,21

    ,, $+,6725,&$/3(563(&7,9(

    ,,, 7+(81'(5/

  • LY

    $%675$&7

    7KLVSDSHUVNHWFKHVDSURILOHRILQWHUQDWLRQDOODERXUPLJUDWLRQRYHUWKHSDVWILIW\ \HDUV DQGGUDZV D GLVWLQFWLRQ EHWZHHQ GLIIHUHQW FDWHJRULHV RI ODERXUIORZV LQ WKH FRQWHPSRUDU\ ZRUOG HFRQRP\ ,W H[DPLQHV WKH XQGHUO\LQJIDFWRUV ZLWK DQ HPSKDVLV RQ VWUXFWXUDO GHWHUPLQDQWV DW D PDFUROHYHO ,WH[SODLQVZK\WKHJDWKHULQJPRPHQWXPRIJOREDOL]DWLRQKDVFRLQFLGHGZLWKD GLVFHUQLEOH VORZGRZQ LQPLJUDWLRQ GXULQJ WKH ODVW TXDUWHU RI WZHQWLHWKFHQWXU\WRDQDO\VHKRZJOREDOL]DWLRQPLJKWLQIOXHQFHHPLJUDWLRQSUHVVXUHVRQWKHVXSSO\VLGHDQGLPPLJUDWLRQQHHGVRQWKHGHPDQGVLGH,WDUJXHVWKDWJOREDOL]DWLRQ KDV VHW LQ PRWLRQ IRUFHV ZKLFK DUH FUHDWLQJ D GHPDQG IRUODERXU PRELOLW\ DFURVV ERUGHUV DV DOVR GHYHORSLQJ LQVWLWXWLRQV RQ WKHVXSSO\VLGHWRPHHWWKLVGHPDQG7KHIXWXUHSURVSHFWVDUHDOVRERXQGWREHVKDSHG E\ GHPRJUDSKLF FKDQJH DQG SRSXODWLRQ LPEDODQFHV DULVLQJ LQSDUWLFXODU IURPWKHDJHLQJRI LQGXVWULDOVRFLHWLHV ,QFRQFOXVLRQ WKHSDSHUVXJJHVWVWKDWWKHWLPHKDVFRPHWRUHIOHFWXSRQWKHQHFHVVLW\RIIRUPXODWLQJLQWHUQDWLRQDO UXOHVRUFUHDWLQJLQWHUQDWLRQDO LQVWLWXWLRQV IRU WKHJRYHUQDQFHRIFURVVERUGHUPRYHPHQWVRISHRSOH

  • , ,1752'8&7,21

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

  • FRQTXHURUV VXFK DV WKH 0RQJROV WKH 5RPDQV DQG WKH &UXVDGHUV 7KHUHZHUHDOVRDGYHQWXUHUVDQGPHUFKDQWV0LJUDWLRQKRZHYHULVGLIIHUHQWIRULWLVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHPRYHPHQWRISHRSOHIURPFRXQWULHVZKHUHWKHUHLVD ODERXU VXUSOXV WR FRXQWULHVZKHUH WKHUH LV D ODERXU VKRUWDJH(YHQ VXFKPRYHPHQW ZKLFK FRQVWLWXWHG WKH EHJLQQLQJV RI DQ LQWHUQDWLRQDO ODERXUPDUNHW VWDUWHG DOPRVW ILYH FHQWXULHV DJR ,WZRXOG WKXV EHZRUWKZKLOH WRVLWXDWHWKHODERXUIORZVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKLQWHUQDWLRQDOPLJUDWLRQLQKLVWRULFDOSHUVSHFWLYH

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

  • WKH DJULFXOWXUDO VHFWRU ZKR FRXOG QRW ILQG LQGXVWULDO HPSOR\PHQW 7KHPLJUDWLRQZDVLQHIIHFWGULYHQE\WKHSXVKRIODQGVFDUFH(XURSHDQGWKHSXOO RI ODQGDEXQGDQW $PHULFDV DV DOVR RWKHU QHZ ODQGV ZLWK WHPSHUDWHFOLPDWHV WKDW DWWUDFWHG ZKLWH VHWWOHUV 7KLV PDVV HPLJUDWLRQ IURP (XURSHDPRXQWHG WR RQHHLJKWK LWV WRWDO SRSXODWLRQ LQ )RU VRPH FRXQWULHVVXFK DV %ULWDLQ ,WDO\ 6SDLQ DQG 3RUWXJDO VXFK PLJUDWLRQ FRQVWLWXWHG DVPXFKDVWRSHUFHQWRIWKHLUSRSXODWLRQ

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

    ,Q WKH VHFRQG KDOI RI WKH WZHQWLHWK FHQWXU\ LW LV SRVVLEOH WR GLVFHUQ WZRSKDVHVRI LQWHUQDWLRQDO ODERXUPLJUDWLRQ IURP WKH ODWHV WR WKH HDUO\VDQGIURPWKHHDUO\VWRWKHODWHV

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

  • ODERXUVXUSOXV FRXQWULHV LQ 6RXWKHUQ (XURSH DQG ,WDO\ ZDV SHUKDSV WKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWVRXUFHRIVXFKODERXU%XWWKHVHVRXUFHVZHUHQRWVXIILFLHQWIRUORQJ$QGE\WKHODWHVWKHODERXUVFDUHFRXQWULHVRI(XURSHZHUHVHDUFKLQJHOVHZKHUHIRUODERXUPRVWO\XQVNLOOHGRUVHPLVNLOOHGZRUNHUVIRUHPSOR\PHQW LQ WKH PDQXIDFWXULQJ VHFWRU RU WKH VHUYLFHV VHFWRU %ULWDLQLPSRUWHGZRUNHUVIURPWKH,QGLDQVXEFRQWLQHQWDQGWKH&DULEEHDQLVODQGV)UDQFH LPSRUWHGZRUNHUV IURP1RUWK$IULFD *HUPDQ\ LPSRUWHGZRUNHUVIURP

  •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

  • HVWLPDWHG WKDW VXFK GLVWUHVVPLJUDWLRQ ZKLFK LV LQYROXQWDU\ OHDGV WR WKHPRYHPHQWRIDERXWPLOOLRQSHRSOHDFURVVERUGHUVHYHU\\HDU

    7KHQHZIRUPVRI ODERXU IORZVDUHJXHVWZRUNHUV LOOHJDO LPPLJUDQWVDQGSURIHVVLRQDOV *XHVW ZRUNHUV DUH SHRSOH ZKR PRYH WR D FRXQWU\ RQ DWHPSRUDU\ EDVLV IRU D VSHFLILHG SXUSRVH DQG D OLPLWHG GXUDWLRQ0RVW RIWKHPDUHXQVNLOOHGRUVHPLVNLOOHGZRUNHUV7KHODUJHVWQXPEHUHVWLPDWHGDWPRUH WKDQPLOOLRQ LV LQ WKH0LGGOH(DVW$QG WKHUHDUHQRZVRPH LQ0DOD\VLDDQG6LQJDSRUH%XWWKH\DUHDOVRWREHIRXQGLQ:HVWHUQ(XURSH7KLV FDWHJRU\ LQFOXGHV VHDVRQDO ZRUNHUV HPSOR\HG LQ DJULFXOWXUH RUWRXULVPSDUWLFXODUO\LQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQG&DQDGD,OOHJDOLPPLJUDQWVDUHSHRSOHZKRHQWHU D FRXQWU\ZLWKRXW DYLVD WDNHXSHPSOR\PHQWRQ DWRXULVW YLVD RU VLPSO\ VWD\ RQ DIWHU WKHLU YLVD KDV H[SLUHG 7KH ODUJHVWQXPEHURIVXFKSHUVRQVDUHLQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDERXWPLOOLRQ:HVWHUQ(XURSHDWOHDVWPLOOLRQDQG-DSDQSHUKDSVPLOOLRQ+RZHYHUWKH