Cropping Frequency, Expansion, and Abandonment in Mato...
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Cropping Frequency, Expansion, and Abandonment in Mato Grosso, Brazil Had Selective Land Characteristics Stephanie Spera, John Mustard, Leah VanWey, Avery Cohn 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Percent remaining of Land not cultivated in 2003 with characteristics of land in agriculture in 2001 Year Ag. Extent DC extent Ag expansion DC Expansion Ag Abandonment DC abandonment Maximum Temp. +* +* +* +* −* −* Minimum Temp. −* −* −* −* +* +* Precipitation +* m m −* m +* Soil Moisture −* −* + +* m m Soy Transport Cost −* −* −* −* + +* Elevation +* +* +* +* −* −* Slope −* −* −* −* +* +* Upland soils +* +* +* +* −* − Protected areas −* −* −* −* +* m Indigenous reserves −* −* −* −* +* m 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Percent remaining of Land not double cropped in 2003 with characteristics of land doubled cropped in 2001 Year Global Breadbasket Future Work: Cerrado We would like to acknowledge Bernardo Rudorff, Joel Risso and Marcos Adami at INPE for their contributions to the remote sensing component of this work. This research was supported by the NASA Land-Cover / Land-Use Change Program, grant no. NNX11AH91G. What is driving the decoupling of Mato Grosso’s agricultural productivity and deforestation rates? Mato Grosso, Brazil • 8% of global soy production • Brazil’s largest cattle herd • 16% of Brazilian corn production • 50% of Brazilian cotton production • Export-oriented market 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 1000 Hectares %Deforested Land% 1000 Hectares %Mechanized Agriculture% Growing Season Double Cropping Single Cropping Total mechanized agriculture PRODES deforestation data Preliminary results of agricultural land cover mapping across the cerrado biome. Methodology Land cover mapping data • MODIS EVI product • Growing season parameters • Crop calendars Land characteristics data • CRU climate data • SRTM elevation data • Derived soy cost map 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 12%Aug 31%Oct 16%Jan 6%Apr 25%Jun Enhanced Vegetation Index forest soy%corn Vegetation phenology of forest (green) and a soy-corn rotation (yellow) in Mato Grosso. 2001 Agricultural Expansion and Intensification 2006 2011 Land Cover Mapping • Total land in agriculture increased from 3 to 5.8 million hectares over the study period. • Soy-corn double cropping increased from 0.46 to 2.9 million hectares over the study period. Characteristics of Agricultural Land • Significant differences (p<0.001) exist between the land attributes of agriculture vs. non-agriculture, and expansion vs. abandonment. • Many of the land attributes that were associated with increased likelihood of expansion were associated with a decreased likelihood of abandonment. Governance or Scarcity? • Cropland created in 2011 was significantly hotter , at lower elevations, drier , farther from markets, and on higher slopes than cropland created in 2003. • We hypothesize that the decoupling of agricultural production and deforestation are a consequence of both scarcity of high quality land worth deforesting for agricultural development and governance. • Scarcity constraints on agricultural expansion may confound land use policy and land use policy analysis. Decreasing Deforestation: Governance or Land Scarcity? Selectivity of Agricultural Expansion and Intensification Key Findings Governance Increased satellite monitoring of deforestation. Municipalities black-listed from exporting agriculture. Government credit limitations. Soy Moratorium: Agreement in which leading soybean companies pledged not to export soy cultivated on land deforested in the Amazon bi- ome after June 21, 2006. Terminates December 31, 2014. Scarcity of High Quality Land The characteristics of the land available in Mato Grosso between 2003-2011 for mechanized agri- culture and double cropping were compared to those of characteris- tics of agricultural land in 2001. For example, on the figures (right), the yellow lines represent the portion of that land that falls within 0 - 1/2 standard deviations (SD) from the mean value of each of the 7 investigated land attributes of the 2001 agricultural area in the state. Relationships between land characteristics and land transitions. Pluses [minuses] with asterisks indicated positive [negative] correlations (p < 0.001) across all years investigated. Pluses [minuses] without asterisks indicate positive [negative] correlations across all ears, but with some years statistically insignificant. M’s indicate cases here both negative and positive correlations were observed across the study period. AG: agriculture, DC: double cropping. 0 - 1/2 SD 1/2 SD - 3/4 SD 3/4 SD - 1 SD 1 SD - 2 SD 0 - 1/2 SD 1/2 SD - 3/4 SD 3/4 SD - 1 SD 1 SD - 2 SD
Transcript of Cropping Frequency, Expansion, and Abandonment in Mato...
Cropping Frequency, Expansion, and Abandonment in Mato Grosso, Brazil Had Selective Land CharacteristicsStephanie Spera, John Mustard, Leah VanWey, Avery Cohn
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Maximum Temp. +* +* +* +* −* −* Minimum Temp. −* −* −* −* +* +* Precipitation +* m m −* m +* Soil Moisture −* −* + +* m m Soy Transport
Cost −* −* −* −* + +* Elevation +* +* +* +* −* −*
Slope −* −* −* −* +* +* Upland soils +* +* +* +* −* −
Protected areas −* −* −* −* +* m
Indigenous reserves −* −* −* −* +* m
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Future Work: Cerrado
We would like to acknowledge Bernardo Rudorff, Joel Risso and Marcos Adami at INPE for their contributions to the remote sensing component of this work.This research was supported by the NASA Land-Cover / Land-Use Change Program, grant no. NNX11AH91G.
What is driving the decoupling of Mato Grosso’s agricultural productivity and deforestation rates?
Mato Grosso, Brazil
• 8% of global soy production• Brazil’s largest cattle herd• 16% of Brazilian corn production• 50% of Brazilian cotton production• Export-oriented market
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Growing Season
Double Cropping Single Cropping
Total mechanized agriculture PRODES deforestation data
Preliminary results of agricultural land cover mapping across the cerrado biome.
MethodologyLand cover mapping data• MODIS EVI product• Growing season parameters• Crop calendars
Land characteristics data• CRU climate data• SRTM elevation data• Derived soy cost map
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forestsoy%corn
Vegetation phenology of forest (green) and a soy-corn rotation
(yellow) in Mato Grosso.
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Agricultural Expansion and Intensification
2006 2011
Land Cover Mapping • Total land in agriculture increased from 3 to 5.8 million hectares over the study period.• Soy-corn double cropping increased from 0.46 to 2.9 million hectares over the study
period.
Characteristics of Agricultural Land• Significant differences (p<0.001) exist between the land attributes of agriculture vs. non-agriculture, and expansion vs. abandonment.• Many of the land attributes that were associated with increased likelihood of expansion were associated with a decreased likelihood of abandonment.
Governance or Scarcity?• Cropland created in 2011 was significantly hotter, at lower elevations, drier, farther from markets, and on higher slopes than cropland created in 2003. • We hypothesize that the decoupling of agricultural production and deforestation are a consequence of both scarcity of high quality land worth deforesting for agricultural development and governance.• Scarcity constraints on agricultural expansion may confound land use policy and land use policy analysis.
Decreasing Deforestation: Governance or Land Scarcity?
Selectivity of Agricultural Expansion and Intensification
Key Findings
Governance Increased satellite monitoring of deforestation.Municipalities black-listed from exporting agriculture.Government credit limitations.Soy Moratorium: Agreement in which leading soybean companies pledged not to export soy cultivated on land deforested in the Amazon bi-ome after June 21, 2006. Terminates December 31, 2014.
Scarcity of High Quality LandThe characteristics of the land available in Mato Grosso between 2003-2011 for mechanized agri-culture and double cropping were compared to those of characteris-tics of agricultural land in 2001.
For example, on the figures (right), the yellow lines represent the portion of that land that falls within 0 - 1/2 standard deviations (SD) from the mean value of each of the 7 investigated land attributes of the 2001 agricultural area in the state.
Relationships between land characteristics and land transitions. Pluses [minuses] with asterisks indicated positive [negative] correlations (p < 0.001) across all years investigated. Pluses [minuses] without asterisks indicate positive [negative] correlations across all ears, but with some years statistically insignificant. M’s indicate cases here both negative and positive correlations were observed across the study period. AG: agriculture, DC: double cropping.
0 - 1/2 SD1/2 SD - 3/4 SD3/4 SD - 1 SD1 SD - 2 SD
0 - 1/2 SD1/2 SD - 3/4 SD3/4 SD - 1 SD1 SD - 2 SD
