Crop Modeling for better Agro Advisories

D. Raji Reddy and K.M. Dakshina Murthy

Agro Climate Research Center, Agricultural Research Institute

Acharya N G Ranga Agricultural University, Rajendranagar, Hyderabad - 30

’

• Agro-meteorological information helps the farmer to make the most efficient use of natural resources

• Important to supply agro-meteorological information blended with weather sensitive management

• Climate uncertainty and variability –needs to inform the farming community through agro advisories on real time basis

Introduction

ACRC Ranga Reddy, MedakRajendranagar Mahabubnagar&Nalgonda

RARS, Jagtial Karimnagar, Warangal, Khammam, Adilabad & Nizamabad

RARS, Anakapalle Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram and Srikakulam

RARS, Chintapalli High altitude &Tribal areas

RARS, Lam Guntur, Krishna, Prakasam, East & West Godavari

RARS, Tirupati Chittoor, S.P.S. Nellore and Kadapa

A.R.S, Anantapur Anantapur and Kurnool

Chief Sec.

Farmer

Flow chart for disseminationof Integrated Agro Advisory bulletin

in ANGRAU

Print & Electronic

media

Agro Advisory Bulletin

Agril.MinisterAgril.Sec.C & DA

JDAs

AOs

Univ. officers

Agromet website

AEOs

Integrated Agromet Advisory* Services at ANGRAU

AAS Unit Districts

*Issued on every Tuesday and Friday valid for next 4 days

NGOs

Farmers club

•Complement field experiments and historical yield data

•Provide excellent information on how crops react to climate change and climate variability

•Provide input to economic models for impact assessment, food security, policy analyses

Increasing demand for crop model use

•Combine with regional / global climate models

•Combine with hydrological models

•Determine best management practices for economic and environmental decision making

• 1.1 billion people

• 2,39,491 Panchayats and 600,000 Villages

• 70% population rural

• Diversity – language, culture, religion

• Diversified farming and cropping systems

• Difficult to reach each Panchayats individually

How to reach the farmers effectively ??????

- “ICT-based advisory services”

Indian sub continent

• The Indian smartphone market in 2009 is

estimated at 2.1 million pieces

• Penetration of smartphones is estimated to

have grown from 1% at end 2009 to over 4%

by Nov 2010

(source : The Economic Times)

• Can effectively used for dissemination of

advisories

crop related information received from Satellite

(RS &GIS)

Delivery of Agro Advisories to

Stakeholders and farmers

Crop models

Ground tooth information

Analysis and generation of crop

specific Agro Advisories by

experts

Weather forecast by India Meteorological Department

SMS/ MMS

advisoriesemail

web

Mass

media

Few experiences

Bulletins based on farming situations

• Bulletins were issued keeping in view the farming situation in mind instead of regular crop advises. Separate advisories were issued for rainfed cotton and irrigated cotton grown under different soils

Cotton

Red and black soils- rainfed

• By taking advantage of recent rains, farmers can go for application of 30-35 kg urea and 10 kg Muraite of Potash at 40, 60 and 80 days after sowing.

• Frequent intercultivation operations may be done to control weeds and water conservation.

Red and black soils with limited irrigation• By taking advantage of recent rains, farmers can go for application of 30-35 kg urea and 10 kg Muraite of Potash at 40, 60 and 80 days after sowing.

End result: More clarity, effective and advantageous

Date of sowing / risk management option

Grain yield (kg/ha)

% Dev. over rainfed

26 June- Rainfed

1819 -

26 June - Nitrogen top dressing + Supplemental irrigation at floral initiation

3917 115.3

Simulated grain yield of maize using CERES- Maize under different climate risk adaptation strategies at Ippalapalli in Mahabubnagar district

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100

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000

Prob

abili

ty

Seed cotton (kg/ha)

Gorita cotton yields for strategically irrigated crops - historical and future climate

Historical ECHAM5 GFDLCM21

0102030405060708090

100

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000

Prob

abili

ty

Seed cotton (kg/ha)

Gorita cotton yields for rainfed crops- historical and future climate

Historical ECHAM5 GFDLCM21

0102030405060708090

100

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000

Prob

abili

ty

Seed cotton (kg/ha)

Gorita cotton yields for rainfed and strategically irrigated crops- historical climate

Rainfed Strategic irrigation

STRATEGIC IRRIGATION: A CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE ADAPTATION TO SECURE COTTON

YIELDS IN GORITA, AP INDIA

• Gorita, Andhra Pradesh, India (16.63oN, 78.16oE)

• Irrigation treatment: 50mm was applied at 50% PAWC with at least 14 days between irrigations and a maximum of 3 irrigations per season

• Climate scenarios– Historical (1978-2008)– ECHAM5 (2021-2040)– GFDLCM21 (2021-2040)

0102030405060708090

100

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000

Prob

abili

ty

Rough Rice Yield (kg/ha)

Gorita yields for crops grown using current farmer practice - historical and future climate

Historical ECHAM5 GFDLCM21

GORITA RICE YIELDS - HISTORICAL AND FUTURE

• Gorita, Andhra Pradesh, India (16.63oN, 78.16oE)

• ANGRAU practices: Best conventional practice as recommended by Acharya N G Ranga Agricultural University (ANGRAU)

• Climate scenarios– Historical (1978-

2008)– ECHAM5 (2021-

2040)– GFDLCM21 (2021-

2040)

THANK YOU

Agro Climate Research Center Team

Dr. D. Raji Reddy, PhDDirector

Dr. K.M. Dakshina Murthy , PhDScientist (Agronomy)

Dr. R. Sunitha Devi, PhDScientist (Entomology)

Dr SG. MahadevappaScientist (Agronomy)

Contact UsPhone: +91 4024016901Email: dandareddy009@gmail.comWeb: www.angrau.ac.in ANGRAU