Critical Thinking About Consolidation in Healthcare: The ... · Lehigh Valley Business Coalition on...
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Critical Thinking About Consolidation in Healthcare: The Curious Case of Hospital Systems
Lawton Robert Burns, Ph.D., MBAJames Joo-Jin Kim Professor
Professor of Health Care ManagementThe Wharton School
Lehigh Valley Business Coalition on HealthcareMay 4, 2017
Lawton R. Burns-The Wharton School
What is “critical thinking” ?
Analysis and evaluation informed by evidence
The propensity to engage in creative thought with reflective skepticism
Lawton R. Burns-The Wharton School
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Primer on Consolidation
Lawton R. Burns-The Wharton School
Types of “consolidation”(from hospital standpoint)
1. Horizontal integration multi-hospital system
2. Vertical integration employed physicians
3. Diversification owned health plan
4. All of the above be like Kaiser
Lawton R. Burns-The Wharton School
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Lawton R. Burns-The Wharton School
The Old DaysFreestanding Community Hospital
Hospital
Lawton R. Burns-The Wharton School
Horizontal Integrationinto Hospital Systems
Corporate Parent
Hospital A Hospital B Hospital C
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Lawton R. Burns-The Wharton School
Vertical Integrationinto Ambulatory & Post-Acute Markets
Physician OfficesMedical GroupsOutpatient Care
Hospitals
Skilled Nursing FacilityHome Health Agency
Input Markets
Output Markets
Lawton R. Burns-The Wharton School
Vertical Integrationinto Insurance/Providers
Health Plan:HMOPPO
Suppliers
Buyers
Hospitals
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Lawton R. Burns-The Wharton School
DiversificationAll of the Above
Physician OfficesMedical GroupsOutpatient Care
Hospital
Skilled Nursing FacilityHome Health Agency
HospitalHospital
Health Plan
Hospitals consolidate into larger systems
Source: Dafny, Ho, Lee (2015); data from Irving Levin Associates and American Hosp AssocLawton R. Burns-The Wharton School
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Consolidation Along the Value Chain◆ 1960s Investor-owned Hospital Systems
◆ 1970s Nonprofit Hospital SystemsNursing Homes
◆ 1980s Psychiatric Hospitals MD GroupsInsurers
◆ 1990s Hospitals, Physicians, Insurers (Again)Employer Purchasing CoalitionsWholesalers & DistributorsGroup Purchasing OrganizationsManufacturers and Suppliers
◆ 2000s Hospitals, Insurers (Again)Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs)
Lawton R. Burns-The Wharton School
Rationale for Consolidation
Lawton R. Burns-The Wharton School
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Objectives of Systems / M&A
Context of Healthcare Reform◆ IOM’s six aims:
care that is safe, timely, effective, efficient, equitable, patient-centered◆ Triple aim:
population health, patient experience, per capita cost
◆ PPACA : ACOs and APMs
◆ Coordination of care for poly-chronics
◆ Care continuum to readmissions and patient transitions
◆ Need for centralized governance
◆ Belief that systems achieve scale economies
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What Do We Get for Consolidation ?
Lawton R. Burns-The Wharton School
Lawton R. Burns-The Wharton School
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Hospital Execs Think Systems Work,Cite Three Benefits
Reduced cost of capitallower-cost debtmore favorable ratings
Scale economies : spread fixed costs over larger volumessupply chain ITback office overheadpharmacy and lab operationsphysical plant management
Clinical standardization : to reduce cost, improve qualityLawton R. Burns-The Wharton School
Systems Access Lower-cost Capital
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%StandaloneHospitals
HealthSystems
2007 S&P Credit Ratings of Standalone Hospitals and Health Systems(% of rated hospitals and health systems in each rating category)
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Credit Agencies Weight Larger Systems More Favorably:
What gets rewarded gets done
Lawton R. Burns-The Wharton School
Systems Invest in Hospitals They Acquire
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Freestanding Hospitals Face Survival Threat
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Systems Fail to Positively Impact the Iron Triangle of Health Care
Cost Containment
High Quality Care Patient AccessLawton R. Burns-The Wharton School
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Evidence on Hospital Consolidation
Physically merging two facilities into one …
lowers costscan increase volumesdoes not necessarily improve quality
But consolidating 2+ facilities under a system roof …
does not lower costsmay increase costs as systems get biggermay increase costs as systems go regionaldoes not increase quality of caredoes not lead to greater provision of charity care
Lawton R. Burns-The Wharton School
Economies of Scale – Often Discussed
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Economies of Scale - No Empirical Evidence
Your Bible on Scale & Scope Economies
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Why Hospital Systems & Mergers Fail to Achieve Scale Economies
◆ Integration restricted to administrative systems and group purchasing (small percentage of costs)
◆ Integration not yet achieved on clinical side (large percentage of costs)
◆ No effort to consolidate production capacity
◆ Hospital systems = “stuck in neutral”
Lawton R. Burns-The Wharton School
Hospitals in Consolidated Markets Raise Prices to Private Payers
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“Black Box” Opacity of Hospital Systems
Labor
Capital
Financials
Quality
Claims
Outcomes
Hospital SystemLawton R. Burns-The Wharton School
Hospital Systems - - In Search of “System-ness”
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Hospitals Nationwide Take Financial Bath on EMR Installation
Hospitals Nationwide are Freezing New Hires
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Hospitals Nationwide are Downsizing
And yet, at the same time …
Lawton R. Burns-The Wharton School
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Hospitals Nationwide Asked to Achieve Triple Aim
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The Triple Aim of Health Care
Per Capita Cost of Care
Individual’s Experience of Care Health of PopulationLawton R. Burns-The Wharton School
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Hospitals Nationwide Now Asked to Prepare for Changing Landscape
Lawton R. Burns-The Wharton School
Hospitals Nationwide Now Asked to Transform Themselves
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41
Provider Payment Models
Provider Practice Models
Integratedhealth system-
focus
Optimizing total population health
Global market risk model
Professional services risk model
Bundled Payment / Episode of illness payment
Pay for Performance (P4P)
Fee-for-service
Fully-integrateddeliverynetworks
(IDN)
AccountableCare
Organizations(ACO)
Single-specialty &
Multi-specialtyGroups / Networks
Independentpractitionerassociations
&Physician-hospital
organizations
Transformation as Multi-Tasking : Simultaneous Change in Payment & Provider Organization
Hospital medical staff
Solo practitioners
Lawton R. Burns-The Wharton School
The Transformation May be Bogus
Lawton R. Burns-The Wharton School
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ACO Paragons of VirtueFacing Monumental Problems
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Kaisier-like Paragons of Virtue Show Signs of Retrenchment
Hospitals Nationwide Asked to Engage Physicians
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Providers Nationwide Asked to Engage Patients
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So what can we conclude
about hospital systems ??
Lawton R. Burns-The Wharton School
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Thank you for listening