Critical metals in high-growth technologies - DiVA...

Critical metals in high-growth technologies

A scenario study of equitable technology distribution in 2050

Sofie Hjortsberg

Mid Sweden University, VT 16

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MID SWEDEN UNIVERSITY Ecotechnology and Sustainable Building Engineering

Author: Sofie Hjortsberg, [email protected] , [email protected]

Supervisor: Morgan Fröling, [email protected]

Degree programme: Ecoengineering, 180 hp

Main field of study: Environmental engineering

Semester, year: VT, 2016

mailto:[email protected]



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Abstract This scenario study focused on potential future demand of critical metals if the world strives

for equitable use of technologies in the world in 2050. Smartphones and other electronics are

increasing in the world and the consumption rate is high as the use-life generally are short.

Technologies moving away from fossil fuels have increased in recent years and include solar

cells and wind power in the energy sector and electric vehicles in the transportation sector. All

these growing technologies are dependent on some specific metals.

In some technological areas, the potential future use of specific metals have the risk to become

critically scarce, as the use of these technologies increase. These technologies and their use of

these potentially critical metals have been investigated in this scenario study, assuming

equitable technology distribution in 2050. For metals which in the scenario study indicate

critical supply, potential strategies have been screened. Rare earth elements have played a huge

role improving wind turbines due to their use of neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and

terbium. Indium and tellurium are used to produce the new generation of solar cells. Lithium is

important in electric vehicles and smartphone batteries. These potentially scarce metals might

have the possibility to be substituted with other metals that can serve as a good enough

substitution in these application. If these metals are substituted it is important that the

substitution materials will not in themselves become critical. Substituting one critical metal with

another might just result in the same unsustainable problems. These potentially scarce metals

are also connected to some environmental consequences as demand is rapidly growing and

mining is the main source for these metals. Another problem is that recycling rates are low and

these metals often end up in landfills where they pose a risk of leaching hazardous or harmful

substances.

This scenario study showed supply limitations for the seven metals that were included. The

outcome of this study resulted in the following conclusions:

Indium and tellurium have a risk to become extremely critical where neither reduced

material intensity nor recycling can decrease demand enough.

Lithium demand Risks to become too high to support with current reserves and as

material intensity is likely to increase, and recycling only can contribute with small

shares in 2050, substitution is the preferable solution to the lithium scarcity.

Neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium demands can be reduced through

reduced material intensity, but as they are dependent on other REEs the availability of

these four metals will depend on the demand for other REEs

Materials under development as substitutions have to be studied regarding their

availability and price sensitivity. Substituting one critical metal with another may result

in similar problems for a new metal instead of a long-term solution.

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Contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................................... iii

Definitions ............................................................................................................................................... vi

1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 1

1.1 Critical metals .......................................................................................................................... 1

1.2 Purpose .......................................................................................................................................... 1

1.3 Objectives ...................................................................................................................................... 2

2. Method ................................................................................................................................................ 2

2.1 Procedure to establish scenario use of some metals .................................................................... 2

2.2 Limitations ..................................................................................................................................... 3

3. Potential critical metals and their main uses ...................................................................................... 4

3.1. Rare earth elements ..................................................................................................................... 4

3.1.1 Reserves and production ........................................................................................................ 5

3.2 Other scarce metals ....................................................................................................................... 6

3.2.1 Indium ..................................................................................................................................... 6

3.2.2 Tellurium................................................................................................................................. 6

3.2.3 Lithium .................................................................................................................................... 7

3.3 Metals and technology application areas ..................................................................................... 7

4. Some consequences and environmental issues of the metal use ...................................................... 8

4.1 Mining ............................................................................................................................................ 8

4.2 Landfilling ...................................................................................................................................... 8

4.3 Price and environmental protection ............................................................................................. 9

4.4 Dependencies ................................................................................................................................ 9

4.5 Social problems in the mining countries ....................................................................................... 9

5. Equitable scenario of future metals demand .................................................................................... 10

5.1 Electrical vehicles ........................................................................................................................ 10

5.2 Electricity generation .................................................................................................................. 11

5.2.1 Solar power .......................................................................................................................... 11

5.2.2. Wind power ......................................................................................................................... 12

5.3 Smartphones and Headphones ................................................................................................... 13

5.4 Scenario of accumulated use of critical metals from the high growth technologies .................. 14

6. Potential development for lower demand ........................................................................................ 16

6.1 Material intensity development .................................................................................................. 16

6.1.1 Neodymium magnets ........................................................................................................... 16

6.1.2 Indium tin oxide (Smartphone) ............................................................................................ 16

6.1.3 Solar cells .............................................................................................................................. 16

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6.1.4 Total use of critical metals with reduced material intensity included ................................. 16

6.2 Recycling ...................................................................................................................................... 17

6.2.1 REE - NdFeB magnets ........................................................................................................... 17

6.2.2 Lithium - Li-ion batteries ...................................................................................................... 17

6.2.3 Tellurium and Indium - Thin film solar cells and smartphone screen .................................. 17

6.2.4 Recycling potential ............................................................................................................... 18

6.3 Substitutions ................................................................................................................................ 18

6.3.1 CdTe and CIS Solar cells. ..................................................................................................... 18

6.3.2 Smartphone screen .............................................................................................................. 18

6.3.3 Li-ion batteries ...................................................................................................................... 19

6.3.4 Neodymium magnets ........................................................................................................... 19

7. Discussion .......................................................................................................................................... 20

8. Conclusion ......................................................................................................................................... 22

References ............................................................................................................................................. 23

APPENDIX A – Scenario calculations ..................................................................................................... 33

1. Transportation ............................................................................................................................... 33

2. Electricity ....................................................................................................................................... 33

2.1 Solar ......................................................................................................................................... 33

2.2 wind ......................................................................................................................................... 34

3. Smartphones ................................................................................................................................. 34

4. Recycling ........................................................................................................................................ 35

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Definitions Critical metals: Critical metals in this study is used to define metals whose availability might

become critical due to limited supply.

Electric vehicle (EV): In this study the electric vehicles will only include battery electric

vehicles, which means neither hybrid electric vehicles, plug-in electric vehicles nor fuel cells

are considered in this scenario study.

Copper indium gallium selenide CI(G)S: In this study CIS and CIGS will be lumped in

together under the name CIS.

Reserves: Reserves are referring to the known metal ores that are available for extraction.

This means that reported reserves could increase as exploration takes place and new sources

are found either as ore or new technology development, as for example landfill mining. .

REE: Elements with the atomic 57 to 71 are often called lanthanoids and together with

yttrium (39) and scandium (21) they are often referred to as REEs (Rare earth elements). This

group of metals have similar chemical and physical properties and often found together in the

earth’s crust. (USGS, 2014)

OECD: OECD stands for the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development and

works as a forum where governments can discuss common development problems around the

world, where they can share their experiences and solutions (OECD, 2016a). There are today

34 member countries including the advanced countries around the world but also a few

emerging countries. (OECD, 2016b)

GW: Gigawatt (GW)

TWh: Terawatt hours (TWh)

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1. Introduction The gap between the rich and the poor is growing, and the natural resources we have available

are being depleted. Brundland defined sustainable development as “development which meets

the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their

own needs” (Murphy and Drexhage, 2010). The meaning of this has been discussed, but it is

generally accepted that sustainable development includes economic development, social equity,

and environmental protection, including equity between present and coming generations. (Murphy

and Drexhage, 2010). As the consumption of our resources are consumed at very different rates

around the world, where the 12 % of the world population living in North America and Europe

accounts for 60 % of the private consumption, the world’s poor should be given improvements

regarding living standard and technologies. A consumption increase is thus needed in the

poorest parts of the world, in order to live a lives of worthiness (World Watch Institute, 2013).

As consumption grows, increasing demand of non-renewable resources also grow, since we so

heavily rely on them for our society. Among these resources, some specific metals are

increasing in quantities due to their use in for example electronic devices, wind turbines, solar

panels and electric cars. There has been an explosion on the demand for these metals the last

years and the demand for them will likely continue to rise. The future supply of these metals

are of concern, especially since many of them are obtained as a byproduct from other metals,

such as zinc or copper (Ayres et al, 2013). And as the minerals and metals from these non-

renewable resources increase, the difficulty and cost associated with production, has increased

for many metals in recent years (Giurco et al, 2013).

1.1 Critical metals What is often discussed as “critical metals” are growing in economic importance for our society

but at the same time they have a high risk of experiencing shortages when it comes to their

supply. The production is most often also shared by a few countries, where china often shares

the market. Critical metals include for example Indium, Gallium, Germanium and rare earth

elements (REE) (Bloodworth and Gunn, 2012). There are seventeen REEs, including the fifteen

lanthanides, as well as scandium and yttrium. All these are metals with similar properties and

therefore tend to cluster together in geologic deposits and have gained increasing interest in

recent years due to their physical and chemical properties (Gwynne, 2011).

1.2 Purpose

The purpose of this thesis is to study the application areas of rare earth elements and other

potentially critical metals to identify important technology uses and the possible developments

if the world strives for a more equitable use. The study aims at finding if we can keep using the

critical metals with increasing demand for technology and the possible consequences of

increased use.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lanthanide

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scandium

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yttrium

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1.3 Objectives

What are the more important technical application areas of REEs? (Section 3.1)

Are there other metals, not included in the REE group, with potential future supply risks?

(Section 3.2-3.4)

What environmental and social problems are connected to the metals demand?” (section 4)

What will be the word’s use of critical metals in a scenario where technology is used

equitable in 2050? (Section 5)

What could be done to prevent the potential problems with increasing demand? (section 6)

2. Method The study will be performed using scenario studies of the technological application areas for

potentially critical metals. Scenario studies includes the formulation of how the future may

unfold, without being a forecast or predicting the future. This means that a scenario analysis

don’t always seek to predict how the future will look like, but rather how it can unfold, if

development unfolds in a specific way (Börjeson et al, 2006).

2.1 Procedure to establish scenario use of some metals The scenario analysis in this study will be used to study development of important technology

for the critical materials studied and where we end up if we seek for an equitable fossil free

world. These scenarios of equitable technology usage in 2050 will be based on secondary data,

gathered in literature studies. The following steps was used to complete the scenario study:

i) A literature screening was used to identify the most important technical

applications for REEs.

ii) A literature screening identified some additional metals that might see future

restrictions regarding supply and their most important technical application areas.

iii) From the most important technical applications identified from i) and ii) I chose

the application areas with an expected rapid growth rate as the most interesting to

include in this scenario study.

iv) From the technical applications identified as fast growing from iii) I made

scenarios where these applications in 2050 was used all over the world at a

consumption level of an average OECD citizen and calculated an expected usage

for the year 2050 for the metals identified from i) and ii) based on their use in the

technical applications.

v) A scenario was established from today until the expected usage in 2050 with an

assumed exponential growth curve and calculated the yearly growth from now

until 2050 and the expected accumulated amount of metals in 2050.

vi) A second scenario was made with the same level of usage as scenario one but with

reduced material intensity.

vii) A potential recycling rate was established to identify the possibility to affect the

two scenarios.

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2.2 Limitations The study includes the world usage of critical metals used for technology development,

focusing on around ten of the most important critical metals. The study will look at the

technology available today and the material intensities at the current situation. This means that

the metals used in these technologies will be kept fixed, technical efficiency increases regarding

metal use in the included applications are not modelled in the scenario. Human welfare and

equity were only considered regarding the technologies these metals are included in. This means

that technologies for other areas like food, waste treatment and clean water that are important

for welfare, will not be included.

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3. Potential critical metals and their main uses

3.1. Rare earth elements

The year 2008 use of REEs are summarized in Table 6-1, roughly characterized onto seven

main areas of use. The main end users of REEs are catalysts, glass industry, neodymium

magnets and metallurgy, that together stand for just above 80 % of the total use. Metallurgy

consist mainly of alloys and nickel metal hydride batteries (NiMH batteries), where the latter

are considered a high-growth market. Neodymium-iron-boron (neodymium) magnets are also

considered an important high-growth market as demand continues to increase (Goonan, 2011).

NiMH-batteries and neodymium magnets are because of their growth on the market two

potential end users of REEs that need further studies regarding the potential future use.

Among technological uses for these REEs, NiMH-batteries have gained interest because their

use in hybrid electric vehicles (Pollet et al, 2012), but it is projected that the share of NiMH

batteries of the electrical vehicle fleet will stagnate and decline as more hybrid electric vehicles

use li-ion battery, which is the choice in battery electric vehicles. (Bosetti et al, 2013) Since

NiMH-batteries are expected to decrease its market shares, it will not be included in this

scenario study. Neodymium magnets most important end-use areas today are computers (Du

and Greaedel, 2011), where they are used as hard disk drives, a market that is declining due to

the solid state drive, where no magnets are used (De Lima and Filho, 2015). Therefore

neodymium magnets used in computers will not be included in this scenario study. Two other

application areas in the growth phase for these neodymium magnets are wind turbines and

automobiles (Du and Greaedel, 2011b). These two technologies will be studied in this scenario

study.

These neodymium magnets are main consumers of the total amount of neodymium and

praseodymium used in technology, see table 1. Because of this both metals will be included in

this study, as well as dysprosium and terbium, used in these magnets and also listed in DOE

(2011) report “Critical materials strategy”.

Table 1: Rare earth metal use by category year 2008 in tons. Data from Goonan, (2011). This table shows the most important rare earths and what

technologies they are used in. Cerium, lanthanum and neodymium are weight wise by far the most important rare earths, and of these three neodymium is

included in the high-growth market category.

Metal Catergory Catalysts Glass industry NdFeB magnets Metal lurgy Phosphors Ceramics Other TOTAL Share of total metals %

Cerium (Ce) Light 8 820 18620 10020 990 840 2930 42 220 33%

Dysprosium (Dy) Heavy 1310 1310 1%

Europium (Eu) Heavy 441 441 0%

Gadolinium (Gd) Heavy 525 162 75 762 1%

Lanthanum (La) Light 18 180 8050 9040 765 1190 1430 38 655 30%

Neodymium (Nd) Light 228 360 18200 3110 840 1130 23868 18%

Praseodymium (Pr) Light 152 694 6140 1032 420 300 8738 7%

Samarium (Sm) Lignt 399 150 549 0%

Terbium (Tb) Heavy 53 414 467 0%

Yttrium (Y) Heavy 240 6230 3710 1430 11610 9%

Other Most Heavy 480 75 555 0%

TOTAL USE 27 380 28444 26228 23601 9002 7000 7520 129 175

Share of total metals % 21% 22% 20% 18% 7% 5% 6%

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3.1.1 Reserves and production

REEs are reasonably abundant in the Earth׳s crust, for example, neodymium is the 26th most

abundant element in the crust (Emsley, 2011). The problem with them are therefore not their

abundance, but their rarity to be found in high concentrations as mineable ore. The abundance

of the different REEs varies, but light REEs are typically more abundant than heavy REEs

(USGS, 2014; Elshkaki and Graedel, 2014), see figure 3-1. These deposits are distributed over

several countries, but china has a market domination of the production (Elshkaki and Graedel,

2014). Neodymium and Praseodymium are considered light and their reserves are estimated at

8 000 000 tones and 2 000 000 tonnes respectively (Emsley, 2011). Terbium and dysprosium

are considered heavy where terbium reserves are estimated to be 300 000 tonnes (Emsley, 2011)

and dysprosium reserves 1 257 990 tonnes (Hoenderdaal, 2011).

Figure 3-1: The percentage distribution of REE in the deposits around the world shows that they are mainly composed of cerium, followed by lanthanum and neodymium. All of these considered light. Deposits rich in heavy REEs consist mainly of yttrium. Source Elshkaki and Graedel, 2014

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3.2 Other scarce metals Besides the REEs there are other metals to consider when talking about metals scarcity.

According to DOE (2011) indium, tellurium and lithium was considered at supply risk already

at present consumption, see Figure 3-2. They will therefore also be included in this study.

3.2.1 Indium

Indium has a low level of occurrence and is extracted as a byproduct from other mining

operations, as it is the only way economically feasible. 90 % of indium is used as indium tin

oxide (ITO) as thin film coatings in flat display panels (Smartphones and other consumer

electronics) and liquid crystal displays (LCD), but the use in Copper-indium-selenide (CIS)

solar cells have been of increasing importance in recent years. The resources and reserves for

indium are not certain. Estimates about reserves can be derived from zinc deposits and

production, since about 95 % of indium is recovered from zinc melting. The content of indium

in zinc deposits varies from about 1 to 100 ppm, and using the average indium content in the

ore, The reserves for indium in zinc deposits were estimated to be around 12 400 tonnes.

(Polinares, 2012), with a production of 755 tonnes in 2015 (Tolcin, 2016).

3.2.2 Tellurium

Tellurium is one of the least common elements in the crust of the earth, with contents of only 3

ppb in rocks (Goldfarb, 2015). Tellurium is mainly used in cadmium-telluride (CdTe) solar

cells that stand for 40 % of the total end use. Another 30 % is used in thermoelectric power

generation. (Anderson, 2016) The demand for tellurium has grown since the demand for CdTe

solar cells have been increasing fast. 90 % of the tellurium are extracted from copper production

(George, 2012), via electrolytic refining of melted copper from High-grade copper ore. When

it comes to lower grade copper ores, no tellurium is extracted, because it uses a solvent-leach

refining process, unable to extract the tellurium (Goldfarb, 2015). The estimated reserves of

24 000 tonnes, only includes tellurium from copper reserves (George, 2012). Tellurium are also

found and recovered as a primary ore in from two parts of the world, China and Sweden

(Goldfarb, 2015).

Figure 3-2: DOE (2011) matrix on metals that could suffer supply risk in short term and medium term.

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3.2.3 Lithium

Lithium is probably the most well-known metal in this list and the largest end users are batteries

and glass and ceramics, each stands for just above 30 % of the lithium use. Li-ion batteries has

showed to be the greatest potential growth area for lithium, due to their use in electronic devices

(For example smartphones) and electrical vehicles (EVs). (Jaskula, 2016). In the natural

systems of the earth, lithium is widely found, but scarcity occur as it is difficult to extract due

to low concentrations (Giurco et al, 2013). The concentrations of lithium varies between 1 ppb

to 2000 ppm, with the lowest found in natural waters and the highest in pegmatites and

continental brines (ALS minerals, 2012). The world reserves for lithium was in 2016 estimated

to 14 000 000 tonnes with a production of 32 000 tonnes (Jaskula, 2016).

3.3 Metals and technology application areas Based on the material from section 3.1-3.2, Table 2 gives an overview of the following metals

and their identified important technology application areas. The metals presented in table 2 will

all be included in this scenario study. When it comes to their identified important technologies,

all technologies will also be included in the continued work with the scenario modelling

Metal Main technology application area y

Neodymium Neodymium magnets in automobiles and wind turbines

Praseodymium Neodymium magnets in automobiles and wind turbines

Dysprosium Neodymium magnets in automobiles and wind turbines

Terbium Neodymium magnets in automobiles and wind turbines

Indium Indium tin oxide on smartphones and CIS solar cells

Tellurium CdTe solar cells

Lithium Li-ion batteries in smartphones and EVs Table 2. The seven metals that will be included in this scenario study and their main technology application areas.

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4. Some consequences and environmental issues of the metal use

4.1 Mining The mining industry is one of the most damaging industries in the world, considering both the

environment and health. Mining uses large areas of land, pollute air and water, causes soil

erosion, toxicity, loss of biodiversity (Li, 2006), and heavy metal pollution (Li et al, 2012).

Problems related to production of metals are not only related to the mining process itself. One

example is copper mining, which is needed to extract tellurium, where workers in smelters were

exposed to higher levels of inorganic arsenic than those working in the mine (Liu et al, 2015).

Many of the metals included in this study also appear in low concentrations, so the

environmental impact from the production processes mining, smelting and refining increases

(Sthiannopkao and Wong, 2013), which can be seen looking at the REEs. REEs are more energy

demanding compared with other conventional metals and the impact increases as the abundance

decreases (Haque et al, 2014). Energy efficiency and phase out of fossil fuels have great

possibilities to reduce GHG emissions from their production (Haque et al, 2014; Bergesen et

al, 2016; Steinfeld and Werder, 2000). But the impacts connected to the production could

actually increase for tellurium when ore with concentrations high enough for direct mining is

found (Anctil and fthenakis, 2013).

Another problems regarding the mining is that increased demand forces mining operations to

untouched reserves. The Bolivian salt pan Salar de Uyuni holds the world’s second largest

reserve of lithium. Once in a while the salt pan is flooded by the Rio Grand river of Uyuni,

creating an important habitat for the native biodiversity, and is one the most visited tourist

attractions in Bolivia, creating an income source for local inhabitants. Lithium extraction could

therefore be a source of changes in biodiversity as well as freshwater availability. Another

consequence would be destroying the landscape, attracting fewer tourists, and thereby

decreasing the income level of local inhabitants (Wanger, 2011).

4.2 Landfilling None of the 7 studied metals undergo recycling. Instead they end up in landfills somewhere

around the world, where they pose a risk of leaching hazardous or harmful substances (Avens

et al, 2014), where landfill leachate limits for substances included in these technologies have

the possibility to be exceeded (Chen et al, 2013). These metals are also very important in our

society, so an even larger problem of landfilling might be that they disappear in our landfills

decreasing the future availability. Landfills are often considered as a final stage where but a

new approach to deal these buried metals are landfill mining (LFM). Screening of landfills

have shown that REEs and other scarce metals could be recovered, but concentrations are

lower than in conventional ore (Arina et al, 2016).

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4.3 Price and environmental protection The market favors the cheapest price of metals supporting mining operations where focus are

on profit and not the environmental protection. One example of this tendency is the rare earth

mine in mountain pass in the United States that in 2002 closed down due to costs related to the

environmental protection. These environmental costs increased the price of REEs and they

could no longer compete with the prices on the market where china was dominating with a

lower price (Okabe and Takeda, 2014).

4.4 Dependencies Another problem connected to these critical metals, except for lithium, is their dependency on

other metals as they are either co-produced or a by-product of other mining operations, so their

supply rely on the demand for other metals (Alonso et al, 2012; Polinares, 2012; George, 2012).

If demand for these critical metals increase at a higher phase than the attractor metal, the

metal/metals considered less desired are “unintentionally” extracted too. Excess supply of

metals cause their prices to fall, which yields an increased price in the desired critical metals

(Brumme, 2014), to compensate the price fall for the attractor metals (Candelise et al, 2011).

This will be seen especially for indium and zinc, whose attractor metals undergo recycling

decreasing the need for virgin material. Tellurium could be even more limited when lower grade

copper ore are mined, where tellurium is normally not recovered (Goldfarb, 2015). Another

limitation in the availability of these critical metals are market domination. China holds a large

market of indium as well as REEs, and restrictions regarding the export could decrease the

supply. This limitation has already once been seen for the REEs (Licht et al, 2015).

4.5 Social problems in the mining countries The mining operations of these critical metals are located around the world, where some are

located in areas that are suffering from conflicts, often regarding the environmental justice

perspective (Rodriguez-Labajos and Özkaynak, 2012). Peru is one country where increased

mining has led to increased conflict and violence. The local inhabitants are scared that these

mining operations will threaten land and water sources because the lack of protection from the

government (Slack, 2009). Other developing countries also have a large potential for conflicts

regarding large-scale mining operations. This violence and protests have the possibility to both

increase prices of these metals due to costs related to destruction by protesters and delayed

supply. In some cases, the supply may be cut completely due to the financial losses the company

may experience (Triscritti, 2013).

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5. Equitable scenario of future metals demand Technologies identified as important drivers for the seven critical metals (section 3.1-3.3) were:

for neodymium, magnets in wind turbines and electric vehicles, and also use in smartphones

(and their accompanying headphones); for indium, CIS solar cells and smartphones (ITO); for

tellurium in CdTe solar cells; and for lithium electric vehicles and smartphones (Li-ion battery).

These technologies have been chosen for their importance and increasing usage in today’s

society. The scenarios described are not focusing on what the future will develop into, but what

happens if the technologies increased worldwide use keeping use per person in the OECD

countries at present level, and increasing use per person in non OECD countries to the level of

present OECD countries. To calculate the technology usage rate, average OECD figures will

be used, with a world population of 9,7 billion that was predicted by UN (2015a). The scenario

growth rate are based on an assumed exponential growth from present to scenario level using

the formula Y=Y0*ert. This does not imply that these technologies will grow exponential in the

future but has been the case for these technologies in recent years (Plumer, 2012; Clover, 2015;

Anderson, 2015).

5.1 Electrical vehicles Automobiles have had a great success since their introduction in the society (Gao et al, 2014)

and gasoline vehicles have been dominating the market (Eurostat, 2015). But as concern for

pollution connected to the transportation sector and decreasing resources of fossil fuels has

increased in recent years, alternatives to gasoline have entered the market (Gao et al, 2014).

Environmental concern drives tighter regulations regarding emissions and fuel consumption

(Bolduc et al, 2015), at the same time as the market demand for alternative fuels have increased,

mainly due to the fossil fuel prices (Ioannides and Wall-Reinius, 2015), driving innovation, that

has been dominated by electronic development. (Gao et al, 2014). In 2014 alone, half the EVs

used today were purchased, showing that the demand for EVs are growing fast (Clover, 2015).

Therefore, the scenarios will be based on a car fleet consisting of 100 % fully electronic

vehicles, which increased the demand from 740 000 electric vehicles used today to 4,85 billion

in 2050, see appendix A1. The most popular EV is Nissan Leaf, which per uses a Li-ion battery

containing 4 kg of lithium (Althaus et al) and 0,8 kg REEs per car, see calculations in appendix

A1.

Figure 5-1: The Scenario consumption of Lithium and REEs in electric vehicles. The figure shows the total used metals in 2050, including both cars in use and in-stock, without any recycling and an assumed lifespan of 10 years. In 2050, the lithium used will be 21 114 033 tonnes, and REE 4 324 418 tonnes/year. The trend lines are the assumed growth curve of the annual use from today to 2050.

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

Critical metals in EVs

Lithium Rare earth metals

Tonnes

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This material intensity, when all people around the world should have equal access to the

products, drives the demand for these critical metals. Figure 5-1 shows that in 2050, if we all

have equal access to technologies, the demand will be as high as over 21 million tonnes, and

with a current reserve base at 14 million tonnes (Jaskula, 2016) we will not be able to support

this demand from EVs.

5.2 Electricity generation Electricity plays a vital part in our everyday lives, but still 15 % of the world population lacks

access to electricity (The World Bank, 2016), and where electricity is available, the main

sources are fossil fuels (The World Bank, 2014). But renewable sources of electricity have been

growing due to increased awareness of effects regarding greenhouse gases (GHG) on the global

climate, declining reserves of fossil sources (Zahedi, 2011) and the need for improved energy

security (Leitner, 2015). Solar power and wind power has lately contributed with the fastest

growth of installed capacity, (Zahedi, 2011) but in 2014 hydropower still stood for the main

contribution of renewable energy sources, producing 3900 TWh of electricity (REN21, 2015).

It is thus assumed that investments in hydropower will not rise due to wind and solar power

(Appelyard, 2015). This scenario will therefore keep electricity from hydropower at today’s

rate, as will the contribution from nuclear power due to the non-renewable fuel and the growing

demand for solar- and wind power. Nuclear power produce 2410 TWh electricity worldwide

(World Nuclear Association, 2015). Adding them together, 6310 TWh of the future need is

assumed to be met by hydropower and nuclear, and the rest will be met by either wind power

or solar power. In the following electricity scenarios, they are assumed to each contribute with

half the demand that is not covered by hydro and nuclear power.

In 2050, if all people consumed electricity like an average person in OECD countries, and the

private car fleet is 100 % electrical, the electricity demand would grow from, 23 342 TWh to

87 853 TWh, see appendix A2.

5.2.1 Solar power

Solar power is growing worldwide and the leading technology on the market is standard

crystalline Silicone that held 83 % in 2010 (Rahim et al, 2013). The two solar cells mentioned

earlier CdTe and CIS only holds a small fraction of the market, with 10 and 1 % share

respectively (DOE, 2011), but are expected to increase in the future, (Rahim et al, 2013) due

to the transition to a new generation of solar cells. These thin-film solar cells are efficient and

produced at low cost, including both CdTe and CIS (Fthenakis, 2000). Both of these modules

have an expected lifespan of 30 years with a metal content of 74 tonnes tellurium per GW CdTe

and 23,1 tonnes indium per GW CIS (DOE, 2011). In the following scenario, they are assumed

to produce half of the electricity demand from solar cells each resulting in an increased demand

for these metals, see figure 5-2.

12

Figure 5-2: The scenario consumption of tellurium in CdTe solar cells and indium in CIS solar cells, if they both contribute with half the electricity from solar power in 2050. This consumption results with tellurium consumption of 1 015 773 tonnes, and 358 517 tonnes for indium. The trend lines are the assumed growth curve of the annual use from today to 2050

5.2.2. Wind power

Wind power is the second largest commercially installed renewable source, after hydropower

(Malik, 2014). Neodymium magnets are used in direct drive wind turbines using permanent

magnets (Espinoza et al, 2013) and held 18,3 % of the market in 2013 (Smith, 2014), but are

expected to grow in the future (DOE, 2011). This growth could partly be explained by today’s

wind turbine reliability problems (Alexandrova et al, 2012). Another explanation is the

increasing capacities of installed wind power, resulting in larger and heavier wind turbines,

increasing the need for magnets that can reduce wind turbine weight and size, which can both

be fulfilled using neodymium magnets (DOE, 2011). Wind turbines installed off-shore are also

grown in recent years favoring the use of permanent magnets because of low weight, thermal

performance, efficiency and energy yield (Alexandrova et al, 2012).

The main REEs in neodymium magnets are neodymium and praseodymium, though the content

of each of them may vary as they have very similar properties. These two metals are often used

alloyed with the ratio found in the deposits, as they otherwise are energy demanding and

difficult to separate (Venås, 2015). An average direct drive wind turbine will consume 642 kg

of magnet material per installed MW (Espinoza et al, 2013) where the REE content is 232 kg

of REE per MW, See Appendix A2.2. In the Scenarios, direct drive wind turbines containing

neodymium magnets are assumed to lead the market of wind power due to problems with

today’s leading technologies. This results in a demand of almost 3 500 000 tonnes of REEs in

2050, see figure 5-3.

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

Critical Metals In solar cells

Tellurium Indium

Tonnes

13

Figure 5-3: The scenario consumption of REEs used in neodymium magnets used in wind power generators in 2050 will be 3 432 572 tonnes. This content is made up of 409 630 tonnes dysprosium, 2 225 313 tonnes neodymium, 702 731 tonnes praseodymium and 94 940 tonnes terbium. The trend lines are the assumed growth curve of the annual use from today to 2050.

5.3 Smartphones and Headphones Mobile phone users around the world is growing, and the market share of smartphones are

growing fast, where the use grew from 35 % of the U.S adults in 2011 to 64 % in 2015

(Anderson, 2015). And they are not just increasing in use, but they are consumed at a high

speed, and about half of the Americas exchange their phone after 2 years or less (Swift, 2015)

when the lifespan is more than double (Ely, 2014). It is not hard to see why smartphones have

gained such an increasing share of the market as they can be used for much more than phone

calls and text messages (Anderson, 2015). In some areas of the world, cellphones are an

important communication lifeline where they are used for job information, political news and

mobile banking (Pew Research Center, 2015). If smartphones holds the market in 2050, the

demand would rise from 1,9 billion in use today to 6,9 billion in use in the 2050 scenario.

Smartphones contain several of the metals included in this study in small amounts where indium

amount per smartphone is 27,75 mg, see Appendix A3. REEs are used as tiny neodymium

magnets in the vibration unit and speaker and two in the headphones that normally follows as

you purchase a smartphone (Folger, 2011). The result is four small magnets with a total weight

of 309 mg, see appendix A3. Lithium is used in the battery of the smartphone, where the lithium

content is 0,84 g, see Appendix A3 (Cucchiella et al, 2015). The headphones in this scenario

are assumed to last the 2 years that the smartphone are in use before the consumer purchase a

new phone, and therefore also new headphones. The demand for lithium will be higher than

indium and REEs, but demand for all the seven metals studied critical will increase, see figure

5-4.

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

REE wind powerTonnes

14

Figure 5-4: The scenario consumption of metals in kg from in-use smartphones and in-stock (used) smartphones if people keep their phone for two years before buying a new. No recycling included. This scenario results in high demand of virgin metals, as old ones end up in landfills. Lithium demand will be 780 034 tonnes, REE demand 287 298 tonnes and indium demand will be 25 769 tonnes. The trend lines are the assumed growth curve of the annual use from today to 2050.

5.4 Scenario of accumulated use of critical metals from the high growth technologies In the following scenario, the world reach equitable consumption of electricity, passenger cars

and smartphones in 2050. Figure 4-5 illustrate the exponential consumption growth and the

total need for these critical from present time until 2050. As no recycling occurs, the total

amount used critical metals will only keep growing and table 3 shows that the accumulated

need in the 2050 scenario for the three metals indium, tellurium and lithium all will exceed the

reserve base, increasing the need for exploration. The question is still, even if more reserves are

found, how sustainable it would be to extract metals from it.

Figure 4-5: Total use of critical metals in the scenario of the world 2050, if all of the technologies described are used equitable. The figures for the accumulated 2050 use of the individual metals in the scenario can be found in Table 3. The trend lines are the assumed growth curve of the annual use from today to 2050. The trend lines are the assumed growth curve of the annual use from today to 2050.

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

Critical metals in smartphones

Indium Rare Earth Elements Lithium

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

Total critical metals use

REE Indium Tellurium Lithium

Tonnes

Tonnes

15

Metal Known Reserves around 2010

(tonne)

Accumulated use from present until the scenario 2050

(tonne)

Accumulated use from present until the scenario 2050, as part of the known reserves (%)

Dysprosium 1 257 9901 959 970 76

Neodymium 8 000 0002 5 215 020 65

Praseodymium 2 000 0002 1 646 850 82

Terbium 300 0002 222 490 74

Indium 12 4003 384 290 3100

Tellurium 24 0004 1 015 770 4232

Lithium 14 000 0005 21 894 070 156 Table 3: The presently know reserves and the accumulated use for the 2050 scenario of the seven metals studied. From this table it is clear that all the seven metals will have supply issues in the scenario, if all the world population should have access to the studied technical applications at the same level as the present average OECD citizen, and with present metal intensity in the technological applications.

1) Hoenderdaal, 2011 2) Emsley, 2011 3) Polinares, 2012 4) George, 2012 5) Jaskula, 2016

CdTe and CIS solar cells increased demand will deplete the known reserves within 15 – 20

years with an exponential technology adoption, and in order to keep supporting this growth, the

known reserves for tellurium has to increase 42 times and indium 31 times. This large demand

compared with the known reserves making these two the most critical metals from the supply.

Lithium will also exceed the known reserves before 2050, while none of the REEs do. But other

problems may limit the supply (See chapter 6.5) so solutions are needed to reduce the

dependency of these metals. Chapter 6.3 will look at the possibilities to substitute these metals

while chapter 6.4 will investigate the research regarding material intensity reductions.

16

6. Potential development for lower demand As could be identified, these metals are very critical and it will be difficult to support the

increased demand. Solutions to decrease our dependency has to be established. Three

alternatives have been investigated including material intensity development, Recycling and

substitution.

6.1 Material intensity development

6.1.1 Neodymium magnets

Rare earths are widely used in neodymium magnets and research has turned to study the

potential for a reduction to reduce dependency of these critical metals. 30-80 % reduction of

REEs in neodymium magnets have been showed to be possible that would drastically reduce

the demand (Lacal-Arántegu, 2015). Reducing the REE content with 80 % would mean that in

2050, the REEs used in wind turbines, electric vehicles and smartphones would be 1 608 866

tonnes instead of 8 044 329 tonnes. That translates to 191 994 tonnes dysprosium, 1 043 004

tonnes neodymium, 329 369 tonnes praseodymium and 44 498 tonnes terbium. This reduction

would keep the demand well below the reserve limit, see table 4.

6.1.2 Indium tin oxide (Smartphone)

No current research for indium reduction in the ITO film was identified, but if it was possible

to reduce the thickness of the film, the indium content could also be reduced.

6.1.3 Solar cells

Technology development within the technologies CdTe and CIS to lower the material intensity

in the thin-films may reduce the dependency on these critical metals. Other developments that

needs to be done is the utilization efficiency from copper and zinc. According to Eggert et al

(2013) these technology developments could lower the material intensity in the solar cells to 17

tonnes for tellurium and 6,3 tonnes for indium, but indium would still consume 8 times of the

known reserves and tellurium would consume 10 times, See table 4.

6.1.4 Total use of critical metals with reduced material intensity included

Table 4: Reduced material intensity shows great possibilities to reduce dependency as demand can be kept within today’s reserves, but indium and tellurium demand would still be too high to solve a scarcity problem. Reserve sources 1-4 are the same as for table 3.

Metals Known Reserves around 2010 (tonne)

Accumulated use from present until the scenario 2050 with reduced material intensity (tonne)

Accumulated use from present until the scenario 2050, as part of the known reserves (% )

Dysprosium 1 257 9901 191990 15

Praseodymium 2 000 0002 329364 16

Neodymium 8 000 0002 1042985 13

Terbium 300 0002 44497 15

Indium 12 4003 97777 789

Tellurium 24 0004 233353 972

17

As Section 5.2.1-5.2.3 indicates, a lot can be done reducing the material intensity within the

technology application area, where reduction seems possible at time moment for all of the

studied critical metals except for lithium. Table 4 shows the total use of critical metals from the

scenario 2050 if the material intensity is reduced.

6.2 Recycling Recycling has to be established for these valuable critical materials creating a circular system,

reducing the impacts from the environmental perspective and the consequences of mining.

6.2.1 REE - NdFeB magnets

Recycling will be important to secure the supply of neodymium, dysprosium, praseodymium

and terbium used in neodymium magnets. Magnets used in wind turbines and EVs are more

easily recycled than the smaller used in electronics that are difficult without human labor (Tudor

and Zakotnik, 2015). However, it is often economically unfeasible to recycle REEs from waste

products (Okabe and Takeda, 2014), and no commercial recycling site is yet available (Kleijn

et al, 2013). Technologies to recycle REEs are available, and recovery rates have showed

efficiencies of 90 % (Tudor and Zakotnik, 2015) but technical and financial problems require

more research and development (Okabe and Takeda, 2014).

6.2.2 Lithium - Li-ion batteries

The best end-of-life treatment for li-ion batteries from EVs can be discussed due to the 80 %

capacity still available in the battery when it is disposed of. Therefore remanufacturing may be

a preferable end-of-life treatment over recycling from an environmental point of view. 80 % of

the automotive components are already remanufactured at end-of-life so it would be a great fit

in line with the rest of the industry (Ramoni and Zhang, 2013). For Smartphone batteries

recycling could be the preferable option to secure supply of lithium. Recycling technologies for

these batteries already exist, but recovery of lithium is not a focus step. Leaching with sulphuric

acid has showed great results in lithium yield (Friedrich et al, 2012) and laboratory experiments

under optimal leaching conditions could recover 98,5 % of the lithium (Amine et al, 2012).

6.2.3 Tellurium and Indium - Thin film solar cells and smartphone screen

Technologies to recycle CdTe and CIS solar cells are available, but high costs makes is less

attractive for the companies. Landfilling of both solar cells comes with a cost, but the price is

still considerably lower than recycling (McDonald and Pearce, 2010). CIS can be recycled with

profit, while CdTe have difficulties to profit. There has though been technology improvements

for recycling of CdTe cells at lower costs (McDonald and Pearce, 2010), and tellurium recovery

rates has shown to be as high as 95 % (Fthenakis, 2000). Recovery rates of indium from CIS

was not identified, but from LCD screens, indium recovery has showed great results of 90 %.

(He et al, 2014).

18

6.2.4 Recycling potential

Recycling can only contribute with a small share of the supply of these metals in 2050 as

most technologies has not yet reached end-of-life, See table 5. Recycling of critical metals

will until the technology is fully adopted around the world, only account for small amounts of

the demand. The amount of metals that will be available for recycling in 2050 has been

calculated from the scenarios in section 5. See appendix A4 for calculations regarding amount

of metals available for recycling.

Table 5: Potential recycling of critical metals from the studied technologies. Recycling are important to save resources and use what we already have but are not in this scenario a solution to solve the potential scarcity problem that might occur.

1) Appendix A4 2) Fthenakis, 2000 3) He et al, 2014 4) Amine et al, 2012 5) Tudor and Zakotnik, 2015

6.3 Substitutions

6.3.1 CdTe and CIS Solar cells.

There are other thin-film solar cells on the market using silicone, but their commercial

breakthrough has been limited due to efficiencies well below both CdTe and CIS. Crystalline

Silicon Glass would be an alternative to CdTe and CIS (Aberle, 2009). This technology uses

silicone which is an advantage looking at the material supply as it is the second most abundant

element on earth but has also been used in solar cells since the 1950s (Emsley, 2011). Another

substitution material would be graphene that is currently going through research regarding the

possibilities to be use in solar cells. Graphene based solar cells have so far reached low

efficiencies so a commercial breakthrough is yet not possible. But research regarding the

possibilities to reach higher efficiencies are currently conducted due to the favored properties

of graphene (Chen et al, 2012).

6.3.2 Smartphone screen

Indium in smartphones may seem like a small problem due to the tiny amount in each

smartphone, but would alone deplete indium reserves before 2050. Due to indium scarcity,

replacement studies have been conducted over the last 15 years that can fulfill the requirements

of a low price, transparency and conductivity (Harper, 2014). Researchers at Pennsylvania state

university have developed one alternative called correlated materials, including strontium

vanadate and calcium vanadate. According to engineer Roman Engel-Herbert, the equipment

currently used for ITO industry could be used for the strontium vanadate as well (BEC Crew,

2015). Two other substitutions that have been proposed include graphene and carbon

nanomaterial (CNM) that both have the same properties as ITO as they are transparent and

electrically conductive. These materials also have an advantage of being both stronger and more

chemically stable (Arvidsson et al, 2017), making both a potentially better alternative in the

future.

Tellurium Indium Lithium REE

Available for recycling 27831 19281 17682401 427 4161

Recovery rate 0,952 0,93 0,9854 0,95

Recovered 2644 1735 1741717 222 674

Accumulated in 2050 in the 2050 scenario

1015773 384286 21894067 8044329

% of need 0,26% 0,45% 7,96% 2,76%

19

6.3.3 Li-ion batteries

The material intensity for lithium based batteries are more likely to increase than decrease due

to recent research of new battery technologies using lithium. Therefore substitution of lithium

seems to be the best option to reduce lithium demand (Contestabile et al, 2013). Older

technologies, like Lead acid and sodium/nickel chloride, may not be an optimal long-term

solutions because of li-ion properties but there has been other metals under research. This

research focus has been on other light metals like Sodium, Magnesium and Aluminum, that

may offer properties that are good enough. But development is still needed before anything can

be said about the future of these battery types (Contestabile et al, 2013).

6.3.4 Neodymium magnets

The supply of REEs seems to be less critical than the other critical metals studied, but could

still be problematic enough to need substitution. Other types of magnets are currently under

research to substitute neodymium magnets. These research has led to many alternatives

including the combination of two to three of the following materials. These include samarium,

cobalt, nitride, aluminum, Nickel, hafnium, copper, titanium, tungsten and yttrium

(Contestabile et al, 2013). Further studies is required as many of these may become critical with

increased demand. When it comes to neodymium magnets in wind power, High-temperature

superconductor is a new technology that might enter the future market of wind turbines (Lacal-

Arántegu, 2015). High-temperature superconductor generators either contain yttrium listed by

DOE (2011) as a critical metal, or bismuth (Kostopoulos, 2013), which has a very low

abundance comparable to indium and tellurium in the earth’s crust and is extracted as a by-

product from lead and copper melting (Emsley, 2011).

20

7. Discussion This study has focused on scenarios for the 2050 future consumption of neodymium,

praseodymium, dysprosium, terbium, indium, tellurium and lithium. These critical metals are

important for technical solutions for digital communication and offer the possibility to reduce

the use of fossil fuels for transportation and electricity supply around the world. The results of

this study indicate that without significant efforts, these technologies cannot be distributed

equally at the level of present OECD per capita use among a world population of 9.7 billion

people without significant supply problems. These problems might be one reason to discuss the

sustainability of these technologies.

The scenarios in this study, with equal technology use, indicate that consumption levels in 2050

of all these critical metals run into supply problems with a complete depletion of the known

reserves for tellurium, indium and lithium and a high extraction compared to known reserves

for REEs, and without increased recycling they will probably be depleted in the near future

after 2050. The known reserves could though increase if exploration takes place and new

reserves are found. But this does not mean that we should extract any additional reserves, due

to potential consequences of taking new mines into production as they often have a lower

concentration in the ore as the high grade ore normally are extracted first. The impacts which

mining has on our environment and health may be possible to decrease due to improvements

within the mining industry, but limited supply would still occur as mining will be important for

the continuous growth of these technologies as the possibility to use recycled materials are low.

Landfilling is never a preferable option, especially not when talking about critical metals that

is very valuable in our society. Landfilling of the metals studied here will decrease the resources

availability even more and at the same time might cause some harm to the surrounding

environment. Landfill mining might be an option in the future to recover the metals already

there, but the deposition in landfills should be extremely limited and other end-of-life treatments

are needed. Recycling would decrease the need of mining and landfilling, which should be

strived for. Several of the technologies in this study have a long lifespan, which implies that

there is some time before this waste stream will increase, bringing increasing importance of

commercial recycling. The difficult part is smartphones that contain small amounts of many

critical metals that is difficult recover, but these small amounts play a more important part

because the high rates of use. Here recycling technologies has to be developed fast to increase

the chances of a circular system for the smartphone materials.

The seven metals discussed in this scenario study are very sensitive to price increases as there

are many factors that can increase the price of these metals or limit the supply. First, they are

often co-produced with other main metals, this can either limit the supply or increase price if

excess supply is created for the attractor metal. Second, their supply may also be restricted due

to dependency on just a few countries. Third, the social problems today can make mining

operations costly as it becomes difficult to extract in conflict areas or limit the supply as the

conflicts make these areas unavailable or too costly. Fourth, the environmental cost of the

mining is not always included in the price of these metals. And as environmental protection

becomes implemented around the world these prices will increase. Increased prices of these

metals will lead to high prices for these technologies leading to difficulties competing on the

21

market with other technologies where prices are lower. For example fossil fuel electricity might

be preferable over solar panels decreasing the renewable electricity share.

The literature review indicated that there are ongoing research efforts regarding how to reduce

the need for these critical metals, by either substitution or reduced material intensity. The

possibilities to reduce material intensity of these metals only showed significant promise for

neodymium magnets, where dependency on the reserves potentially could be significantly

reduced. This reduced dependency might be a good option for the REEs as they are often found

in the ore together with other REEs. This indicates that a complete substitution could create

excess supply as long as other REEs are continuously used. An acceptable level of consumption

can be discussed but it would probably lie somewhere at the extraction rate of other REEs,

preferably cerium and lanthanum, that is most common in these deposits. When it comes to

indium and tellurium, the material intensity reduction will most probably not be enough to solve

a scarcity problem and research on substitution seems to be the only option. The same goes for

lithium where material intensity seems more likely to increase rather than decrease.

Substitutions are still not good enough to be ready for a market entrance, and a few years at

minimum is probably needed to successfully replace these critical metals. The seven critical

metals included in this 2050 scenario study has increased market shares due to their almost

perfect properties in wind power, solar cells, cellphones and EVs, but due to their scarcity and

substitution studies, it is important to look for substitutions that are good enough, as a

substitution as good as these critical metals may be very difficult. Important when talking about

substitutions is then also the availability of these substitution metals as substituting one critical

metal with another might only result in the same problems as can be seen today. Manganese,

samarium, cobalt, nickel and yttrium are mentioned as possible technology substitutions and

even though they are all not thought of as critical in the near- or medium term future, if they

are used for substitutions, they may become more critical. This is something for further studies

to investigate.

The future availability of the seven critical metals in this scenario study have the potential risk

to run into serious supply problems. This scenario study focused on equal availability and use

of technologies at the same level as the present average per capita OECD citizen. In reality the

“solution” to the problem will probably be that inequalities of today’s society continue in the

future. This unequal distribution of technologies will probably keep demand at a lower rate

compared to this scenario study, and therefore have the possibility to decrease demand and thus

the supply problem might never occur, or at least never be as significant as this scenario study

indicates. But this does not reduce the need for scenario studies or studies regarding possible

future material availability as we can never know how the future will unfold. Inequalities will

probably always occur but demand can still grow, both from trying to reduce the inequalities

and from an increasing gap between the rich and the poor as the rich countries to increase their

demand for technologies. This scenario study indicates a serious problem that we may have to

face and the risks with rapid technological development. By scenario studies we can get an

indication if we are currently moving on a path to continue on or if we need to change direction.

As in this case, with both indium and tellurium, we already see scarcity problems, and they will

probably continue, even with inequalities, as we keep using both metals at a high consumption

rate they can currently not sustain.

22

8. Conclusion This scenario study focused on potential future demand of critical metals if the world strives

for equitable use of technologies in the world in 2050. The seven critical metals that were

included in this study (Neodymium, Praseodymium, Dysprosium, Terbium, Tellurium, Indium

and Lithium) all showed strong supply limitations if the technologies of EVs, wind power, CdTe

and CIS solar cells, and smartphones are distributed evenly in 2050 at the level of an average

present per capita OECD citizen

Indium and tellurium have a risk to become extremely critical where neither reduced

material intensity nor recycling can decrease demand enough.

Lithium demand risks to become too high to support with current reserves and as

material intensity is likely to increase, and recycling only can contribute with small

shares in 2050, substitution is the preferable solution to the lithium scarcity.

Neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium demands can be reduced through

reduced material intensity, but as they are dependent on other REEs the availability of

these four metals will depend on the demand for other REEs

Materials under development as substitutions have to be studied regarding their

availability and price sensitivity. Substituting one critical metal with another may result

in similar problems for a new metal instead of a long-term solution.

23

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Effect of film thickness on the properties of indium tin oxide thin films. Journal of Applied

Physics. Vol 88. P 6021

Indium Corporation, (2016). Indium Tin Oxide (ITO): (In2O3):(SnO2). [Online] Available at:

http://www.indium.com/inorganic-compounds/indium-compounds/indium-tin-oxide/

[Accessed 2016-04-07]

MIT. (2004). Material: Indium Tin Oxide (ITO). 6.777J/2.751J Material Property Database.

[Online] Available at: http://www.mit.edu/~6.777/matprops/ito.htm [Accessed 2016-04.07]

HTC Corporation. (2015). Htc one M9: Specifikationer. [Online] Available at:

http://www.htc.com/se/smartphones/htc-one-m9/ [Accessed 2016-04-07]

ENES Magnets. (2016). 7,5 X 5 X 2 / N38SH – NDFEB (Neodymium) magnet. [Online]

Available at: http://www.enesmagnets.pl/gb/7,5_x_5_x_2__n38sh_-

_ndfeb_(neodymium)_magnet-t-2058.html [Accessed 2016-04-08]

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Available at: http://www.batteryspace.com/Lithium-Battery-Shipping-Regulations.aspx

[Accessed 2016-04-07]

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[Accessed 2016-04-08]

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Smartphones-by-2016/1011694 [Accessed 2016-04-07]

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[Accessed 2016-06-02]

http://data.un.org/Data.aspx?d=WDI&f=Indicator_Code%3AEG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC

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http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/0-19/

http://www.indium.com/inorganic-compounds/indium-compounds/indium-tin-oxide/

http://www.mit.edu/~6.777/matprops/ito.htm

http://www.htc.com/se/smartphones/htc-one-m9/

http://www.enesmagnets.pl/gb/7,5_x_5_x_2__n38sh_-_ndfeb_(neodymium)_magnet-t-2058.html

http://www.enesmagnets.pl/gb/7,5_x_5_x_2__n38sh_-_ndfeb_(neodymium)_magnet-t-2058.html

http://www.batteryspace.com/Lithium-Battery-Shipping-Regulations.aspx

http://www.cnet.com/news/six-things-to-know-about-smartphone-batteries/

http://www.emarketer.com/Article/2-Billion-Consumers-Worldwide-Smartphones-by-2016/1011694

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http://www.oecd.org/about/

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perspective. Published by British Geological Survey, Keyworth, Nottingham, NG12 5GG,

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http://www.oecd.org/about/membersandpartners/

http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/500542/1/Gunn%20%20Bloodworth%20article%20July%202012.pdf

33

APPENDIX A – Scenario calculations

1. Transportation Car fleet: With a car ownership of 50 per 100 persons (OECD, 2013) the total car fleet in

2050 would be 0,5 * 9,7 billions = 4 850 000 000 billion

EVs today: 740 000 (Clover, 2015)

Fuel consumption: 150 Wh/km (Nissan.co.uk, 2016)

The exponential growth rate will be:

4 850 000 000 = 740 000 * er*35, Which gives r as = 0,25

The electricity demand will be:

4 850 000 000 cars * 13 000 km/car (OECD, 2010) * 150 Wh/km = 9,45*10^15 Wh =

9 457,5 TWh

Magnet weight in EVs

Average magnet: 2,375 kg (Espinoza et al,

2012)

Average kg Scource

Neodymium (30%*76%) 0,54 Espinoza et al, 2013; Charles et al, 2015

Dysprosium (4%) 0,083 Espinoza et al, 2013

Preseodymium (30 % *24%) 0,17 Espinoza et al, 2013; Charles et al, 2015

Terbium (<1%) 0,02375 Venås, 2015

TOTAL 0,81925

2. Electricity The electricity need in 2050: 8082 kWh (UNdata, 2016) /person * 9,7 billion persons =

78 395 TWh

With electricity for EVs included: 78 395 TWh + 9 457,5 TWh = 87 853 TWh

Today’s electricity use: 23 342,6 TWh (The World Bank, 2014)

Growth rate without EVs: 78 395 = 23 342,6 * e^r*35, Which gives r as = 0,035

Growth rate with EVs: 87 853 = 23 342,6 * e^r*35, Which gives r as = 0,038

Nuclear + Hydropower: 6300 TWh (World nuclear association, 2015; REN21, 2015)

Solar + wind: 87 853 – 6310 = 81 543 TWh

Wind: 81 553/2 = 40 771,5

CdTe and CIS: (81 553 / 2) = 20 385,75 each

2.1 Solar

Market share: 10 % - CdTe and 1 % CIS (DOE, 2011)

TWh produced (0,9% market share): 23 342,6 * 0,009 = 210 TWh (REN21, 2015)

CdTe – 0,1 *210 = 21 TWh

CIS – 0,01 * 210 = 2,1 TWh

CdTe growth rate: 20 385,75 = 21 *er*35, Which gives r as = 0,19

CIS growth rate: 20 385,75 = 2,1 *er*35, Which gives r as = 0,26

Solar cell efficiency:

34

CdTe – 16-17 % (Mohamed, 2013)

CIS – 15 % (Baek et al, 2015)

Amount of GW installed capacity needed to produce X TWh:

CdTe: X TWh *1000 GWh/1 TWh /0,17 /8760 h = X GW

CIS : X TWh *1000 GWh/1 TWh /0,15 /8760 h = X GW

2.2 wind

Market share: 18,3 % (Smith, 2014)

Todays wind electricity share: 3,1 % (REN21, 2015)

TWh produced: 23 342,6 * 0,031 = 724 TWh

Wind turbine NdFeB: 724*0,183 = 133 TWh

Growth rate: 40 771,5 = 133 * er*35 , Which gives r as =0,16

Content of metals, kg per MW

Dysprosium (~4%) 27,7 Espinoza et al, 2013

Neodymium (~30% * 76 %) 150,5 Espinoza et al, 2013; Charles et al, 2015

Praseodymium (30% *24 %) 47,5 Espinoza et al, 2013; Charles et al, 2015

Terbium (<1%) 6,42 Venås, 2015

Total: 232,12

A wind turbine, normally operate at full load of a period of 2000-3000 hours, with a machine

efficiency of 94 % (Haavisto et al, 2010): (3000 * 0,94) / 8760 = 32 % efficiency

Amount of GW installed capacity needed to produce x TWh:

X TWh *1000 GWh/1 TWh /0,32 /8760 h = X GW

3. Smartphones How many smartphones:

Population 0-14: 2 billion (UN, 2015b)

Population 0-19: 2,7 billion (UN, 2015c)

Popultion 14-19: 2,7 billion – 2 billions = 700 million

Population 19+ : 9,7 billion (UN, 2015a) – 2,7 billions = 7 billion

Smartphone ownership in 2050

Population between 14-19 Population 19+

700 million (78 % have phone) 7 billion (91 % have phone )

546 000 000 phones 6 370 000 000 phones = 6 916 000 000 phones

Smartphone ownership source Rainie (2013)

Smartphones today: 1 900 000 000 (eMarketer, 2014)

Growth rate smartphones: 6 916 000 000 = 1 900 000 000 * e^r*35, Which gives r as = 0,369

Screen size:

average screen size: (inches)

35

samsung S7 HTC one M9 Iphone 6s Xperia Z5 Average

5,1 5 4,7 5,2 5

Average Ah

3,6 2,84 1,715 2,9 2,76375

Indium content:

Average smartphone screen is 5 inches with an area of 144,4 mm * 69.7 mm = 10 078,62 (HTC

corporation, 2015)

Indium tin oxide average thickness: 40 – 870 nm (Chrisey et al, 2000) = 40 + 870 / 2 = 455 nm =

0,00045mm

Density of indium tin oxide: 6,8 g/cm3 = 6,8 mg/mm3 (MIT, 2004)

Volume = 10 078, 62 mm2 * 0,00045 mm = 4,5 mm3

Mass: 4,5 mm3 * 6,8 mg/mm3 = 30,8 mg

90 % of mass is indium (Indium Corporation, 2016)

Indium mass: 0,9 * 30,8 mg = 27,75 mg

NdFeB magnet: REE content:

The magnet weight was estimated picking apart a pair of old headphones. The magnet had a size

about 5 mm wide and 1-2 mm thick.

Neodymium magnets has a density of 7,5 g/cm3 = 7,5 mg/mm3 (ENES Magnets, 2016)

Volume = pi*r^2*h =pi * 2,5^2 * 1,5 = 29,5 mm3 volume

Mass: 29,5 mm3 * 7,5 mg / mm3 = 221 mg of magnet

Mass REEs

% of magnet mg

Neodymium 30%* 76% 50,36 Ezpinosa et al, 2013; Charles et al, 3013

Praseodymium 30%* 24% 15,90 Espinoza et al, 2013; Charles et al, 2015

Dysprosium 4% 8,84 Espinoza et al, 2013

Terbium <1% 2,21 Venås, 2015

TOTAL 34% 77,31

There are a total of four magnets in the smartphones (headphones included) wich equals 77,31

mg/magnet * 4 magnets = 309 mgREEs

Lithium content:

A li-ion battery contains 0,3 g of lithium per ampere hour in one cell (AA portable battery corp.,

2016).

The average phone contains a battery of 2,8 Ah and 1 cell (Kedem, 2012)

Lithium: 2,8 * 1 * 0,3 = 0,84 g

4. Recycling Available for recycling: Electricity – CdTE solar cells and CIS solar cells

Total lifespan CdTe and CIS solar cells: 30 years (DOE, 2011). This means that not until 2045, the first

amount of tellurium and indium from solar cells have the potential to be recycled. By 2045 the

amount used in 2015 will reach end of life and so on (See in-stock in the two tables below).

Tellurium from CdTe solar cells: the 37 GW * 74 tonnes/GW = 2738 tonnes

36

(Amount of CdTe solar cells have been calculated using the formula: 20 385,75 = 21 *er*35

Amount of new CdTe solar cells needed each year has been calculated using the need for CdTes –

CdTes already available from the year before) TWh CdTe GW in

Capacity New In-stock

2015 21 14

2016 26 17 3

2017 31 21 3

2018 38 26 5

2019 46 31 5

2020 56 38 7

2021 68 46 8

2022 83 56 10

2023 101 68 12

2024 123 83 15

2025 150 101 18

2026 182 122 21

2027 222 149 27

2028 270 181 32

2029 329 221 40

2030 400 269 48

2031 487 327 58

2032 593 398 71

2033 722 485 87

2034 879 590 105

2035 1069 718 128

2036 1302 874 156

2037 1584 1064 189

2038 1928 1295 231

2039 2347 1576 281

2040 2857 1918 342

2041 3477 2335 416

2042 4232 2842 507

2043 5151 3459 617

2044 6270 4210 751

2045 7631 5124 914 14

2046 9288 6237 1113 17

2047 11305 7591 1354 20

2048 13761 9241 1649 25

2049 16749 11247 2006 30

2050 20386 13689 2442 37

CdTe solar cells

Indium from CIS solar cells: 5,9(3) GW * 23,1 tonnes/GW = 137 tonnes

37

(Amount of CIS solar cells have been calculated using the formula 20 385,75 = 20 *er*35

Amount of new CIS solar cells needed each year has been calculated using the need for CIS – CIS

already available from the year before) CIS (EV incl) GW in

Capacity New In-Stock

2015 2,1 1,6

2016 2,7 2,1 0,5

2017 3,5 2,7 0,6

2018 4,6 3,5 0,8

2019 6,0 4,6 1,1

2020 7,8 5,9 1,4

2021 10,1 7,7 1,8

2022 13,2 10,0 2,4

2023 17,1 13,0 3,0

2024 22,3 17,0 4,0

2025 28,9 22,0 5,0

2026 37,6 28,6 6,6

2027 48,9 37,2 8,6

2028 63,6 48,4 11,2

2029 82,6 62,9 14,5

2030 107,4 81,7 18,9

2031 139,6 106,2 24,5

2032 181,5 138,1 31,9

2033 235,9 179,5 41,4

2034 306,7 233,4 53,8

2035 398,6 303,3 70,0

2036 518,2 394,4 91,0

2037 673,6 512,6 118,3

2038 875,6 666,4 153,7

2039 1138,0 866,1 199,7

2040 1479,6 1126,0 260,0

2041 1923,4 1463,8 337,7

2042 2500,3 1902,8 439,0

2043 3250,0 2473,4 570,5

2044 4225,0 3215,4 742,0

2045 5492,1 4179,7 964,3 1,6

2046 7139,3 5433,3 1253,6 2,1

2047 9280,6 7062,9 1629,6 2,7

2048 12064,0 9181,1 2118,3 3,5

2049 15682,3 11934,8 2753,7 4,6

2050 20385,8 15514,3 3579,5 5,9

Available for recycling: Electricity – wind power

38

Total lifespan of wind power: 25 years (Venås, 2015). This means that by 2040 the first wind turbines

in this scenario 2050 will be available for recycling. This means that if we look at the in-stock for wind

turbines in 2050 243 GW will be available. This translates to:

REEs from wind power: 243 GW * 232,12 tonnes REEs/GW wind = 56 405 tonnes of REEs

(Amount of CIS solar cells have been calculated using the formula 40 771,5 = 133 * er*35

Amount of new Wind power needed each year has been calculated using the need for wind power –

wind power already available from the year before) TWh GW

GW

TWh Wind GW In capacity

New GW In-Stock

2015 133 47

2016 156 56 8

2017 184 66 10

2018 217 77 12

2019 255 91 14

2020 301 107 16

2021 354 126 19

2022 417 149 22

2023 491 175 26

2024 579 207 31

2025 682 243 37

2026 803 286 43

2027 946 337 51

2028 1114 397 60

2029 1312 468 71

2030 1545 551 83

2031 1820 649 98

2032 2143 764 115

2033 2524 900 136

2034 2973 1061 160

2035 3502 1249 189

2036 4124 1471 222

2037 4857 1733 261

2038 5721 2041 308

2039 6738 2404 363

2040 7936 2831 427 47

2041 9348 3335 504 55

2042 11010 3928 593 65

2043 12967 4626 698 77

2044 15273 5448 823 91

2045 17988 6417 969 107

2046 21187 7558 1141 126

2047 24954 8902 1344 149

39

2048 29391 10485 1583 175

2049 34617 12349 1864 207

2050 40771,5 14545 2196 243

Available for recycling: smartphones

The lifespan for a smartphones has due to short use-life been calculated to be replaced after two

years in use. This means that smartphones have the possibility to be recycled with a start in 2017,

after only two years. The amount of phones in-stock without recycling will be 64 532 423 853 by the

end at scenario 2050. This means that the potential total amount available for recycling will be:

REEs: 64 532 423 853 smartphones * 309,24 mg /smartphone = 19 956 tonnes

Indium: 64 532 423 853 smartphones * 27,75 mg /smartphone = 1791 tonnes

Lithium: 64 532 423 853 smartphones * 0,84 g / smartphone = 54 207 tonnes

(Amount of CIS smartphones have been calculated using the formula 6 916 000 000 = 1 900 000 000

* e^r*35

Amount of new smartphones needed each year has been calculated using the need for smartphones

– smartphones already available from the year before) Total smartphones New

smartphones old phones/year

Total In stock used phones

2015 1 900 000 000

2016 1 971 446 832 71 446 832

2017 2 045 580 322 74 133 490 1 900 000 000 1 900 000 000

2018 2 122 501 497 76 921 175 71 446 832 1 971 446 832

2019 2 202 315 186 79 813 689 1 974 133 490 3 945 580 322

2020 2 285 130 156 82 814 970 148 368 007 4 093 948 329

2021 2 371 059 266 85 929 110 2 053 947 179 6 147 895 508

2022 2 460 219 621 89 160 355 231 182 977 6 379 078 485

2023 2 552 732 725 92 513 104 2 139 876 289 8 518 954 774

2024 2 648 724 654 95 991 929 320 343 332 8 839 298 106

2025 2 748 326 226 99 601 572 2 232 389 393 11 071 687 499

2026 2 851 673 174 103 346 948 416 335 261 11 488 022 760

2027 2 958 906 340 107 233 166 2 331 990 965 13 820 013 725

2028 3 070 171 857 111 265 517 519 682 209 14 339 695 934

2029 3 185 621 359 115 449 502 2 439 224 131 16 778 920 065

2030 3 305 412 177 119 790 818 630 947 726 17 409 867 791

2031 3 429 707 560 124 295 383 2 554 673 633 19 964 541 424

2032 3 558 676 897 128 969 337 750 738 544 20 715 279 968

2033 3 692 495 945 133 819 048 2 678 969 016 23 394 248 984

2034 3 831 347 070 138 851 125 879 707 881 24 273 956 865

2035 3 975 419 496 144 072 426 2 812 788 064 27 086 744 929

2036 4 124 909 564 149 490 068 1 018 559 006 28 105 303 935

2037 4 280 020 996 155 111 432 2 956 860 490 31 062 164 425

2038 4 440 965 175 160 944 179 1 168 049 074 32 230 213 499

2039 4 607 961 435 166 996 260 3 111 971 922 35 342 185 421

40

2040 4 781 237 354 173 275 919 1 328 993 253 36 671 178 674

2041 4 961 029 071 179 791 717 3 278 968 182 39 950 146 856

2042 5 147 581 603 186 552 532 1 502 269 172 41 452 416 028

2043 5 341 149 181 193 567 578 3 458 759 899 44 911 175 927

2044 5 541 995 595 200 846 414 1 688 821 704 46 599 997 631

2045 5 750 394 558 208 398 963 3 652 327 477 50 252 325 108

2046 5 966 630 070 216 235 512 1 889 668 118 52 141 993 226

2047 6 190 996 816 224 366 746 3 860 726 440 56 002 719 666

2048 6 423 800 557 232 803 741 2 105 903 630 58 108 623 296

2049 6 665 358 557 241 558 000 4 085 093 186 62 193 716 482

2050 6 916 000 000 250 641 443 2 338 707 371 64 532 423 853

Available for recycling: EVs

Total lifespan EVs: 10 years (Cobb, 2014). This means that after 10 years the first amount of lithium

and REEs from EVs will be available for recycling. This means that by 2050 EVs produced from 2040

and before will be available for recycling. After 10 years (2025) the EVs produced in 2015 will reach

end of life and a new demand for that amount will occur, and this will keep going utill the scenario

stop at 2050. This amount equals 428 508 243 cars (see in-stock used cars) will have reached end of

life. This represents:

Lithium: 428 508 243 cars * 4 kg/car = 1 714 032 tonnes of lithium

REEs: 428 508 243 cars * 0,81925 kg/car = 351 055 tonnes of REEs

(Amount of cars have been calculated using the formula 4 850 000 000 = 740 000 * er*35

Amount of new cars needed each year has been calculated using the need for EVs – Evs already

available from the year before) Amount of cars Amount of new cars Total used cars/year In-stock used

cars

2 015 740 000 740 000

2016 951 207 211 207

2 017 1 222 695 271 488

2018 1 571 669 348 974

2 019 2 020 246 448 577

2020 2 596 853 576 607

2 021 3 338 033 741 180

2022 4 290 755 952 722

2 023 5 515 398 1 224 643

2024 7 089 572 1 574 174

2 025 9 113 037 2 023 465 740 000 740 000

2026 11 714 029 2 600 992 211 207 951 207

2 027 15 057 381 3 343 352 271 488 1 222 695

2028 19 354 974 4 297 593 348 974 1 571 669

2 029 24 879 161 5 524 187 448 577 2 020 246

2030 31 980 030 7 100 869 576 607 2 596 853

2 031 41 107 590 9 127 560 741 180 3 338 033

41

2032 52 840 286 11 732 696 952 722 4 290 755

2 033 67 921 661 15 081 375 1 224 643 5 515 398

2034 87 307 487 19 385 826 1 574 174 7 089 572

2 035 112 226 285 24 918 798 2 763 465 9 853 037

2036 144 257 277 32 030 992 2 812 199 12 665 236

2 037 185 430 374 41 173 097 3 614 840 16 280 076

2038 238 354 864 52 924 490 4 646 567 20 926 643

2 039 306 384 762 68 029 898 5 972 764 26 899 407

2040 393 831 369 87 446 607 7 677 476 34 576 883

2 041 506 236 492 112 405 123 9 868 740 44 445 623

2042 650 723 651 144 487 159 12 685 418 57 131 041

2 043 836 449 518 185 725 867 16 306 009 73 437 050

2044 1 075 184 212 238 734 694 20 960 000 94 397 050

2 045 1 382 057 213 306 873 001 27 782 263 122 179 313

2046 1 776 516 172 394 458 959 34 843 191 157 022 504

2 047 2 283 559 378 507 043 206 44 787 937 201 810 441

2048 2 935 319 990 651 760 612 57 571 057 259 381 498

2 049 3 773 102 432 837 782 442 74 002 662 333 384 160

2050 4 850 000 000 1 076 897 568 95 124 083 428 508 243

Total amount of metals available for recycling (tonnes)

REEs: 351 055 from EVs + 56 405 from wind power + 19 956 from smartphones = 427 416 tonnes

Indium 137 from CIS + 1791 from smartphones = 1928 tonnes

Tellurium: 2738 from CdTe = 2738 tonnes

Lithium: 1 714 033 from EVs + 54 207 from smartphones = 1 768 240 tonnes

Critical metals in high-growth technologies - DiVA...

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