CrisisWatch N°122

8/13/2019 CrisisWatch N122

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CrisisWatch

Crisis Group is an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation, with some 140 staff members on five continents, working

through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conflict. Crisis Groups approach is grounded in

field research. Teams of political analysts are located within or close by countries at risk of outbreak, escalation or recurrence of violent

conflict. Based on information and assessments from the field, Crisis Group produces regular analytical reports containing practical

recommendations targeted at key international decision-takers, and backed up with high-level advocacy. Crisis Group is chaired by

former U.S. Ambassador and Vice Chairman of Hills & Company Thomas R. Pickering, and its President and Chief Executive is former

UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Louise Arbour.

summarises briefly developments during the previous month

in some 70 situations of current or potential conflict, listed

alphabetically by region, providing references and links to

more detailed information sources (all references mentioned

are hyperlinked in the electronic version of this bulletin);

assesses whether the overall situation in each case has, dur-

ing the previous month, significantly deteriorated, significantly

improved, or on balance remained more or less unchanged;

alerts readers to situations where, in the coming month, there

is a particular risk of new or significantly escalated conflict,

or a particular conflict resolution opportunity (noting that in

some instances there may in fact be both); and

summarises Crisis Groups reports and briefing papers that

have been published in the last month.

CrisisWatchis compiled by Crisis Groups Brussels Research

Unit, drawing on multiple sources including the resources of our

some 140 staff members across five continents, who already

report on some 60 of the situations listed here. Comments

and suggestions can be sent to [email protected].

To search past issues of CrisisWatchvisit our databases and

resources page at www.crisisgroup.org.

DeterioratedSituations ImprovedSituations

UnchangedSituations

Conflict ResolutionOpportunities

ConflictRisk Alerts

Guinea (p.3)

October 2013 Watchlist

September 2013Trends

122 1 October 2013

Central African

Republic (p.2)

Kenya (p.2)

Philippines (p.7)

Sudan (p.3)

Iran (p.11)

Afghanistan (p.5), Algeria (p.11), Armenia (p.8), Azerbaijan (p.8), Bahrain (p.10), Bangladesh (p.5),

Bosnia (p.7), Burundi (p.2), Cameroon (p.2), China (internal) (p.5), China-Japan (p.5), Colombia (p.9),

Cte dIvoire (p.3), Cyprus (p.9), DR Congo (p.2), Egypt (p.11), Eritrea (p.2), Georgia (p.8), Guatemala

(p.9), Guinea (p.3), Guinea-Bissau (p.3), Haiti (p.9), India (non-Kashmir) (p.6), Indonesia (p.6), Iraq

(p.11), Israel-Palestine (p.10), Kashmir (p.6), Kazakhstan (p.4), Korean Peninsula (p.5), Kosovo (p.7),

Kyrgyzstan (p.4), Lebanon (p.10), Liberia (p.4), Libya (p.12), Macedonia (p.8), Madagascar (p.3),

Mali (p.4), Mauritania (p.12, Mexico (p.10), Moldova (p.9), Morocco (p.12), Myanmar (p.7), Nagorno-

Karabakh (Azerbaijan) (p.8), Nepal (p.6), Niger (p.4), Nigeria (p.4), North Caucasus (Russia) (p.8),

Pakistan (p.6), Rwanda (p.2), Senegal (p.4), Serbia (p.8), Somalia (p.2), South Sudan (p.2), Sri Lanka

(p.6), Syria (p.10), Tajikistan (p.5), Thailand (p.7), Tunisia (p.12), Turkey (p.9), Turkmenistan (p.5),

Uzbekistan (p.5), Venezuela (p.10), Yemen (p.11), Zimbabwe (p.3)

Board of TrusteesChair

Thomas Pickering

President and CEO

Louise Arbour

Vice-Chairs

Ayo Obe

Ghassan Salam

Executive Committee

Morton Abramowitz

Cheryl Carolus

Maria Livanos Cattaui

Frank GiustraMark Malloch-Brown

George Soros

Pr Stenbck

Kofi Annan

Nahum Barnea

Sandy Berger

Micheline Calmy-Rey

Wesley Clark

Sheila Coronel

Mark Eyskens

Joschka Fischer

Lykke Friis

Jean-Marie Guhenno

Lena Hjelm-WallnMo Ibrahim

Asma Jahangir

Wadah Khanfar

Wim Kok

Ricardo Lagos

Joanne Leedom-Ackerman

Lalit Mansingh

Benjamin Mkapa

Laurence Parisot

Karim Raslan

Paul Reynolds

Javier Solana

Liv Monica Stubholt

Larry Summers

Wang JisiWu Jianmin

Lionel Zinsou

Chairmen Emeriti

Martti Ahtisaari

George J. Mitchell

President Emeritus

Gareth Evans
http://www.crisisgroup.org/http://www.crisisgroup.org/


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Thibaud Lesueur,Is the LRA Only Sleeping?,The African Peacebuilding

Agenda, 11 Sept. 2013.

DR Congo condemns Rwandas never-ending aggression, AFP, 25

Sept. 2013.

Rwanda President Kagames Rwandan Patriotic Front won par-liamentary elections 16 Sept with over 76% o vote; govt reported98.8% turnout. 2 killed, 14 injured 13-14 Sept in 2 grenade attacks,Kigali.

Safe and sorry, Economist, 21 Sept. 2013.

Horn of Africa

Eritrea Exiled rebel Red Sea Aar Democratic Organisation(RSADO) and Saho Peoples Democratic Movement (SPDM)

reportedly met 6 Sept in Addis Ababa, said preparing militaryoperations to topple Asmara regime. EU 21 Sept called or releaseo political prisonsers, said deeply concerned, cited ongoingrights abuses.

Exiled Eritrean rebel groups plan joint military attack against regime,

Sudan Tribune, 7 Sept. 2013.

Kenya errorist attack on Westgate shopping mall in Nairobi killedat least 67 and injured hundreds 20-24 Sept; Somali al-Shabaabmilitant group 21 Sept claimed responsibility or attack, said inretaliation or Kenyas intervention in Somalia; at least 8 arrested.ICC trial o Deputy President William Ruto and journalist JoshuaSang began 10 Sept. National Assembly and Senate mid-month

passed motion to withdraw rom ICCs Rome Statute. Clashesbetween Borana and Gabra communities in Marsabit countycontinued.

Cedric Barnes,Kenyas Brutal Coming of Age, New York Times, 25 Sept.

2013.

Kenyas balancing act after Westgate attack, BBC, 24 Sept. 2013.

Somalia Al-Shabaab militant group 20-24 Sept laid siege to Ken-yan mall, killing dozens (see Kenya). Regional Jubaland presidentSheikh Ahmed Madobes motorcade attacked in Kismayo byal-Shabaab 13 Sept; Madobe survived but at least 20 killed, manyinjured. 15 killed, over 40 injured 7 Sept in al-Shabaab attackon Mogadishu restaurant. Western-born al-Shabaab militantsAbu Mansoor al-Amriki and Osama al-Britani reported killedamid ongoing reports o increasing actionalism within group.EU pledged 650mn or reconstruction at 16 Sept New Dealconerence.

Kenya attack follows power struggle in al-Shabaab, AP, 29 Sept. 2013.

South Sudan President Kiir 23 Sept suggested 2015 general elec-tions may be delayed, cited lack o unds or census and completiono new constitution. Kiir early Sept visited Khartoum, discussedpost-secession issues; Sudanese President Bashir agreed not toclose oil pipeline. Govt continued to urge Abyei communities toreturn to region, register and prepare or planned Oct reerendumon status o region; AU 24 Sept urged Sudan and S Sudan to rerainrom any unilateral actions including holding o reerendum, 27

Sept urged countries to urgently restart talks. Ministry o Oiland Petroleum early-Sept announced S Sudan received $969mnsince resuming oil production in April, 20% paid to Sudan govt.

Sudans still at odds over Abyei referendum, VOA, 29 Sept. 2013.

Africa

Central Africa

Burundi Ruling CNDD-FFD announced changes to constitu-tion not necessary to allow President Nkurunziza to run againas Nkurunziza only elected once via direct vote; civil society andopposition denounced move. Public prosecutor 12 Sept announcedinvestigation opened into role o newly-returned opposition FNLleader Agathon Rwasa in massacre o some 160 DRC reugees inAug 2004; several opposition parties said investigation politicallymotivated.

Burundi opens probe over kil lings of Congo Tutsi refugees, Reuters, 13

Sept. 2013.

Cameroon Reports o media clampdown, intimidation o opposi-tion supporters ahead o 30 Sept legislative and municipal elections;ruling Cameroon Peoples Democratic Movement widely expectedto win. Security orces 8 Sept seized suspected Boko Haram armsshipment in north bound or Borno State, Nigeria. Authorities 14Sept repatriated 134 CAR reugees who protested against livingconditions in Nandoung camp.

Lgislatives et municipales au Cameroun : le RDPC, futur parti (presque)

unique?, Jeune Afrique, 16 Sept. 2013.

Central African Republic Violence worsened, religious tensionsincreased and humanitarian situation continued to deteriorate,particularly in NW. Seleka rebel abuses including killing andtorture displaced thousands and sparked clashes with supporterso ormer president Boziz, sel-deence groups, ethnic Gbayacommunities, and combatants rom armed groups includingSeleka-breakaway Democratic Front o the Central Arican Repub-lic (FDPC) and Peoples Army or the Restoration o Democracy(APRD). Transitional President Djotodia 13 Sept ormally dis-solved Seleka coalition amid criticisms he is unable to rein infighters. France 23 Sept called or urgent action, warned lack ointernational response risks destabilising wider region. EU, AU,UN, U.S. and CAR neighbours met 25 Sept in New York on margino UNGA to discuss support to AU peacekeeping mission andstrengthening o UN peacebuilding office in CAR. PM iangaye 26Sept called or support rom international community and quick

deployment o AU peacekeeping orce. Thierry Vircoulon, Central African Republic: Thinking Out of the Box to

Save the CAR, AllAfrica, 24 Sept. 2013.

La Centrafrique est en passe de devenir un facteur dinstabilit pour

toute la rgion, RFI, 25 Sept. 2013.

DR Congo Govt talks with M23 rebels resumed 10 Sept; skirmishesbetween FARDC and M23 restarted 26 Sept north o Kiwanja.President Kabila 25 Sept condemned Rwandas never-endingaggression at UNGA. At least 10 killed in clashes between rivalmilitias in Masisi late Sept. Clashes between govt orces and IturiPatriotic Resistance Front (FRPI) continued in Ituri, thousandsdisplaced. National consultations began 7 Sept; President Kabila

promised amnesty to deuse political tensions, 1,025 prisonersparoled ollowed by rise in criminality in Kinshasa. Main opposi-tion parties boycotted process; 7 ex-rebel groups allowed to takepart in consultations; deadline extended.
http://www.crisisgroupblogs.org/africanpeacebuilding/2013/09/11/is-the-lra-only-sleeping/http://www.crisisgroupblogs.org/africanpeacebuilding/2013/09/11/is-the-lra-only-sleeping/http://news.yahoo.com/dr-congo-condemns-rwandas-never-ending-aggression-190829209.htmlhttp://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21586597-president-tightens-his-grip-safe-and-sorryhttp://allafrica.com/stories/201309080082.htmlhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/horn-of-africa/kenya/op-eds/barnes-kenya-kenyas-brutal-coming-of-age.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/horn-of-africa/kenya/op-eds/barnes-kenya-kenyas-brutal-coming-of-age.aspxhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-24230160http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2013/sep/29/af-kenya-terror-group/http://allafrica.com/stories/201309300336.htmlhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/13/us-burundi-rebel-idUSBRE98C0KS20130913http://www.jeuneafrique.com/Article/ARTJAWEB20130916161343/cameroun-rdpc-paul-biya-sdflegislatives-et-municipales-au-cameroun-le-rdpc-futur-parti-presque-unique.htmlhttp://www.jeuneafrique.com/Article/ARTJAWEB20130916161343/cameroun-rdpc-paul-biya-sdflegislatives-et-municipales-au-cameroun-le-rdpc-futur-parti-presque-unique.htmlhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/central-africa/central-african-republic/op-eds/2013/vircoulon-thinking-out-of-the-box-to-save-the-car.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/central-africa/central-african-republic/op-eds/2013/vircoulon-thinking-out-of-the-box-to-save-the-car.aspxhttp://www.rfi.fr/afrique/20130925-centrafrique-facteur-instabilite-onu-seleka-hollandehttp://www.rfi.fr/afrique/20130925-centrafrique-facteur-instabilite-onu-seleka-hollandehttp://www.rfi.fr/afrique/20130925-centrafrique-facteur-instabilite-onu-seleka-hollandehttp://www.rfi.fr/afrique/20130925-centrafrique-facteur-instabilite-onu-seleka-hollandehttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/central-africa/central-african-republic/op-eds/2013/vircoulon-thinking-out-of-the-box-to-save-the-car.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/central-africa/central-african-republic/op-eds/2013/vircoulon-thinking-out-of-the-box-to-save-the-car.aspxhttp://www.jeuneafrique.com/Article/ARTJAWEB20130916161343/cameroun-rdpc-paul-biya-sdflegislatives-et-municipales-au-cameroun-le-rdpc-futur-parti-presque-unique.htmlhttp://www.jeuneafrique.com/Article/ARTJAWEB20130916161343/cameroun-rdpc-paul-biya-sdflegislatives-et-municipales-au-cameroun-le-rdpc-futur-parti-presque-unique.htmlhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/13/us-burundi-rebel-idUSBRE98C0KS20130913http://allafrica.com/stories/201309300336.htmlhttp://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2013/sep/29/af-kenya-terror-group/http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-24230160http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/horn-of-africa/kenya/op-eds/barnes-kenya-kenyas-brutal-coming-of-age.aspxhttp://allafrica.com/stories/201309080082.htmlhttp://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21586597-president-tightens-his-grip-safe-and-sorryhttp://news.yahoo.com/dr-congo-condemns-rwandas-never-ending-aggression-190829209.htmlhttp://www.crisisgroupblogs.org/africanpeacebuilding/2013/09/11/is-the-lra-only-sleeping/


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Sudan Tousands protested throughout country late-Sept againstgovt decision to remove uel subsidies, called or all o regime.Protests turned deadly, with over 200 reportedly killed and some700 arrested; ruling National Congress Partys (NCP) HQ in

Omduran set on fire 24 Sept. NCP accused opposition parties andSudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) o inciting protests. OppositionNational Consensus Forces ormed umbrella group with proes-sional unions, civil society and youth organisations to opposecrackdown; reormists within ruling NCP, including ormerpresidential adviser Ghazi Salahuddin and ormer army generalMohammed Ibrahim, also reportedly criticised violent govt action.Khartoum reiterated opposition to AU proposal or Oct Abyei re-erendum. Newly-appointed U.S. Special Envoy Donald Booth metwith Sudanese co-chair o Abyei Oversight Committee, al-Khairal-Fahim; FM Ahmed Ali Karti said Booth not welcome to mediateAbyei dispute, Khartoum would only allow AU mediation. Powerstruggle between NCP-appointed North Darur governor OmanKibir and traditional leader o Mahamid Arab tribe and Janjaweed

militia leader Musa Hilal intensified. Military operations againstSRF in South Kordoan continued.

Uprising in Sudan threatens Bashirs 24-year rule, Al Arabiya, 27 Sept.

2013.

Southern Africa

Madagascar Former President Ravalomanana 14 Sept announcedhe will support candidate Jean-Louis Robinson in presidential elec-tions scheduled or 25 Oct (first round). AU 6 Sept lifed sanctionsagainst Rajoelina and 109 political personalities imposed in 2010.

Series o bomb explosions in capital Antananarivo early Sept, 1person killed in 16 Sept blast. Presidential campaigns officiallybegan 24 Sept; bomb exploded 26 Sept outside house o SpecialElectoral Court President Franois Rakotozay.

Des attentats politiques?, RFI, 17 Sept. 2013.

Zimbabwe SADC 2 Sept issued final report o its observer missionin July elections, endorsing poll as ree, peaceul and generallycredible; noted that media highly polarised and biased, also latedelivery o voters roll. Western govts, especially U.S., continue toquestion credibility o outcome. Growing speculation that ZANU-PF will use its 75% majority in parliament to amend constitution,including provisions on devolution o power and public account-

ability o security institutions. President Mugabe announced newcabinet 10 Sept, retaining most o old guard and introducing somenew aces. Hawkish Saviour Kasukuwere replaced with moremoderate Francis Nhema in indigenisation ministry; inclusion ohardline propagandist and ZANU-PF politburo member JonathanMoyo as minister o inormation responsible or media suggestsreturn to hardline stance. During opening o parliament 18 SeptMugabe said economic recovery top govt priority. New financeMinister Patrick Chinamasa announced Zimbabwe not desperateto re-engage with West, will continue to rely on economic relation-ship with China. ZANU-PF early Sept ratcheted up rhetoric againstsanctions maintained by U.S., Australia, EU, and Canada; SADCagain called or lifing o sanctions. EU 17 Sept announced lifingsanctions on state mining company Zimbabwe Mining Develop-ment Corporation (ZMDC), despite parliamentary portoliocommittee exposing maleasance in diamond sector and central

role o ZMDC, and recent allegations rom Mugabe himsel thatZMDC chair corrupt.

Mugabe loads new cabinet with hardliners,Christian Science Monitor,

11 Sept. 2013.

West Africa

Cte dIvoire Negotiations between govt and 11 political orma-tions under Framework or Permanent Dialogue (CPD) resumed 6Sept in Grand-Bassam; Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) reused to par-ticipate. Former PM under Laurent Gbagbo Pascal Affi NGuessannamed head o FPI 7 Sept; Affi NGuessan 8 Sept launched call ornational reconciliation. Govt 20 Sept said domestic court will tryICC-sought ormer first lady Simone Gbagbo. President Ouat-tara 23 Sept met UNSG Ban, discussed progress since 2010-2011

post-election crisis and UN peacekeeping, UNSG Ban welcomedgestures rom govt towards opposition ollowing early-Septgovt promise to resume political dialogue. Shoot-out in AbidjansMACA prison 14 Sept lef several injured.

Simone Gbagbo ne sera pas transfre devant la CPI, RFI, 20 Sept.

2013.

Guinea Mounting tensions surrounding 28 Sept legislativeelections, with ears that disputed result could lead to violence

between supporters o opposition and ruling RPG party. Pollsinitially scheduled 24 Sept; opposition 14 Sept said still unhappywith reorm o electoral roll, called on supporters to demonstrate,18 Sept decided to call off demonstrations in order to give dialoguea chance. EU electoral observation mission 17 Sept called on

electoral commission (CENI) or greater transparency; ECOWASalso deployed observation mission. Afer meeting with oppositionacilitated by international partners, govt 21 Sept decided to post-pone elections to 28 Sept, making some adjustments to electoralprocess. Minor violent incidents in Lab 17 Sept, Nzerekor 21Sept and Kindia 22 Sept, and clashes between opposition and govtsupporters 24 Sept in Conakry lef 1 dead, 51 injured. Amid reportso missing voting cards and polling stations opening late, electionsheld peaceully with CENI announcing 80% turnout. EU observa-tion mission 30 Sept released critical assessment o CENI peror-mance. Consolidated results still unavailable 1 Oct; opposition 30Sept claimed polls marred by ballot-stuffing, vote-tampering, over50 ake polling stations, claimed victory in all 5 Conakry districts,

pledging to resist attempts to tamper with results. Des violences pr-lectorales font un mort et 51 blesss, Jeune Afrique,

24 Sept. 2013.

Guinea-Bissau President Nhamadjo 3 Sept acknowledged Novgeneral elections might be delayed; UNSC 11 Sept insisted they beheld as soon as possible. AU 18 Sept called or international sup-port or elections, joined by Ivorian President Ouattara at UNGA25 Sept. Arican Party or the Independence o Guinea and CapeVerde (PAIGC) 18 Sept set controversial and overdue pre-electoralparty Congress or 7-10 Nov. High-profile economist Paulo Gomesdeclared independent run or presidential election. Amnesty billor 12 April coup leaders ailed to obtain clear majority at NationalAssembly 10 Sept.

CPLP admite adiamento das eleies, Jornal de Noticias, 20 Sept. 2013.
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/perspective/analysis/2013/09/27/Sudan-uprising-threatens-Bashir-s-24-year-rule.htmlhttp://www.rfi.fr/afrique/20130917-madagascar-attentats-politiques-rajoelina-ravalomananahttp://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/2013/0911/Zimbabwe-Mugabe-loads-new-cabinet-with-hardliners-videohttp://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/2013/0911/Zimbabwe-Mugabe-loads-new-cabinet-with-hardliners-videohttp://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/2013/0911/Zimbabwe-Mugabe-loads-new-cabinet-with-hardliners-videohttp://www.rfi.fr/afrique/20130920-cote-ivoire-simone-gbagbo-transfert-cpi-justice-internationale-crime-humanitehttp://www.jeuneafrique.com/Article/ARTJAWEB20130923181921/guinee-violence-conakry-ufdg-legislatives-guineennes-guinee-des-violences-pre-electorales-font-un-mort-et-51-blesses.htmlhttp://www.jornalnoticias.co.mz/index.php/internacional/3108-guine-bissau-cplp-admite-adiamento-das-eleicoeshttp://www.jornalnoticias.co.mz/index.php/internacional/3108-guine-bissau-cplp-admite-adiamento-das-eleicoeshttp://www.jeuneafrique.com/Article/ARTJAWEB20130923181921/guinee-violence-conakry-ufdg-legislatives-guineennes-guinee-des-violences-pre-electorales-font-un-mort-et-51-blesses.htmlhttp://www.rfi.fr/afrique/20130920-cote-ivoire-simone-gbagbo-transfert-cpi-justice-internationale-crime-humanitehttp://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/2013/0911/Zimbabwe-Mugabe-loads-new-cabinet-with-hardliners-videohttp://www.rfi.fr/afrique/20130917-madagascar-attentats-politiques-rajoelina-ravalomananahttp://english.alarabiya.net/en/perspective/analysis/2013/09/27/Sudan-uprising-threatens-Bashir-s-24-year-rule.html


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Liberia Police Inspector General 5 Sept rejected Aug HumanRights Watch report highlighting widespread police corruptionand abuses. UNSC 18 Sept renewed UNMIL mandate or additionalyear. Senate 11 Sept passed Oil Reorm Bill. Special Court or Sierra

Leone 26 Sept rejected ormer president Charles aylors appeal,upheld 50-year prison sentence.

Charles Taylor war crimes convictions upheld, BBC, 26 Sept. 2013.

Mali President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita (IBK) inaugurated 4 Sept,5 Sept named Oumar atam Ly new PM. atam Ly 8 Sept namednew cabinet, including ormer cabinet director o coup leaderCaptain Sanogo, Gen Moussa Sinko Coulibaly, as new interiorminister; opposition leaders protested against Sinko Coulibalykeeping position in new govt. Tensions in north increased: 29Sept suicide attack in imbuktu lef at least 2 civilians and 4 jihadisdead, as well as 6 Malian soldiers injured. President IBK 26 Septcalled or Sahara countries to create regional multilateral rapidreaction orce to respond to ongoing Islamist threat across region.Armed clashes 15 Sept near Lr between Malian army and MNLA,reasons unclear. Following MNLA suspension o participation inpeace process 26 Sept, grenade attack 27 Sept wounded 2 soldiersin Kidal. 29-30 Sept clashes between MNLA and Malian army inKidal lef at least 3 injured. Delegation o ministers visiting Kidal 15Sept pelted with stones. Arab Movement o Azawad (MAA), HighCouncil or Unity o Azawad (HCUA), Coordination o PatrioticResistance Forces and Movements (CM-FPR) and MNLA 17 Septagreed on joint public statement; also agreed to meet regularly todiscuss grievances and make progress toward settlement o finalpeace agreement.

Larme malienne en tat dalerte maximum aprs la recrudescence de

violences dans le Nord, Jeune Afrique, 30 Sept. 2013.

Niger Security orces clashed violently with narco-traffickingarmed groups in enere valley, near Libya-Algeria border 3-4 Sept.FM Mohamed Bazoum 18 Sept stated country would welcomepresence o U.S. armed drones on its territory to fight terrorists anddrug trafficking. Mauritanian news agency ANI 16 Sept releasedAQIM video showing 4 Frenchmen abducted in Niger in 2010.

Combats entre larme et des narcotraquants dans le Tnr, RFI, 6

Sept. 2013.

NewCrisis Group Africa Report N208, Niger: Another Weak Link in the

Sahel?, 19 September 2013. Suicide attacks on mili tary and mining targets,

followed by a violent prison break in the capital, revealed Nigers fragile

stability in a crisis-ridden neighbourhood.

Nigeria Military operations against Islamist sect Boko Haram (BH)continued including 10 Sept airstrikes on BH bases in Mada, BornoState. BH attacks on Civilian Joint ask Forces (JF) and local com-munities ongoing: 26 Civilian JF killed by BH in Monguno 3 Sept;BH 5 Sept attacked Gajiram village, Borno State, killing approx20; at least 27 killed 25-26 Sept in BH attacks on villages in BornoState. At least 65 students killed 29 Sept in BH attack on collegein Yobe state. Increased concerns over vigilante groups: CivilianJF 14 Sept killed policeman in revenge attack ollowing shootingo Civilian JF member during road check in Borno State. Eggonethnic youths linked to outlawed Ombaste cult 13-15 Sept attackedAdabu, Obi and Assakio towns in Nasarawa State, killing over 40;at least 30 killed 14-15 Sept in clashes between Eggon and Alagocommunities. At least 30 people killed and more than 30 housesrazed in intercommunal clashes between Fulani herdsmen and

Agata natives in Benue State 28-29 Sept. Suspected Fulani herds-men 1 Sept killed 6 near Kuru, Pleateau state. President Jonathandismissed 9 ministers ollowing 31 Aug ruling Peoples DemocraticParty (PDP) split; 15 Sept held talks with dissidents who dropped

demand he rerain rom seeking second term, but several issuesremain unresolved.

Nigerians fear Boko Haram violence only to escalate, VOA, 23 Sept.

2013.

Senegal Justice Minister Aminata our took over as PM 1 Sept,second emale PM in Senegals history; promotion o technocratsto manage economy and o renowned human rights lawyer SidikiKaba at justice ministry well received, but replacement at interiorministry o General Seck by politician Abdoulaye Daouda Diallogenerated criticism. Moderate Casamance separatists led byCsar Badiate 7 Sept met President Salls adviser Robert Sagnaand U.S. diplomat James Bullington in Guinea-Bissau to discusspeace process.

Senegals Sall appoints anti-graft campaigner as prime minister,

Reuters, 1 Sept. 2013.

Asia

Central Asia

Kazakhstan During 6-8 Sept visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping,countries signed agreements worth $30bn, including Chinese pur-

chase o 8.4% stake in Kashagan oil field. Almaty court suspended2 independent newspapers.

China buys into giant Kazakh oileld for $5 billion, Reuters, 7 Sept.

2013.

NewCrisis Group Asia Report N250, Kazakhstan: Waiting for Change, 30

September 2013. Resource-led economic growth cannot mask the need for

reforms in Kazakhstan as labour unrest, social divisions and a growing Islam-

ist movement threaten the countrys stability.

Kyrgyzstan Opposition leaders summoned to questioning 3 Septafer airing on state broadcaster o videos allegedly showing opposi-tion activists planning to extort $3mn rom Kumtor gold-mining

corporation, and overthrow govt, including by poisoning NarynRiver and putting blame on mining company, with help o Hizbut-ahrir. Alleged extortionists arrested. Govt and Canada-listedCenterra Gold signed non-binding agreement on restructuringownership o Kumtor mine, with govt swapping current sharesand $100m uture profits or 50% holding in new joint venture.Authorities 16 Sept announced 3 people arrested including 1Kazakh and 2 Kyrgyz citizens in southern city Osh, reportedlymembers o Islamic Jihad Union (IJU) returning rom Syria toconduct attacks in Bishkek. Chinese President Xi Jinping signed$3bn deal with govt to boost Kyrgyz section o gas pipeline romTurkmenistan to China. During 13 Sept Shanghai CooperationOrganisation (SCO) summit in Bishkek, Xi announced Chineseunding o civilian transit hub at Manas airport afer U.S. air orcevacates it in 2014. Afer talks with President Atambayev in Brussels17 Sept, European Commission President Barroso announcedincrease o EU financial support: $40.5mn macroeconomic aid,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-24279323http://www.jeuneafrique.com/Article/ARTJAWEB20130930083736/mali-terrorisme-kidal-ibkl-armee-malienne-en-etat-d-alerte-maximum-apres-la-recrudescence-de-violences-dans-le-nord.htmlhttp://www.jeuneafrique.com/Article/ARTJAWEB20130930083736/mali-terrorisme-kidal-ibkl-armee-malienne-en-etat-d-alerte-maximum-apres-la-recrudescence-de-violences-dans-le-nord.htmlhttp://www.rfi.fr/afrique/20130906-niger-combats-entre-armee-narcotrafiquants-passe-salvadorhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/west-africa/niger/208-niger-another-weak-link-in-the-sahel.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/west-africa/niger/208-niger-another-weak-link-in-the-sahel.aspxhttp://www.voanews.com/content/nigerians-fear-boko-haram-violence-only-to-escalate/1755471.htmlhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/01/us-senegal-government-pm-idUSBRE9800BK20130901http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/07/us-oil-kashagan-china-idUSBRE98606620130907http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/central-asia/kazakhstan/250-kazakhstan-waiting-for-change.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/central-asia/kazakhstan/250-kazakhstan-waiting-for-change.aspxhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/07/us-oil-kashagan-china-idUSBRE98606620130907http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/01/us-senegal-government-pm-idUSBRE9800BK20130901http://www.voanews.com/content/nigerians-fear-boko-haram-violence-only-to-escalate/1755471.htmlhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/west-africa/niger/208-niger-another-weak-link-in-the-sahel.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/west-africa/niger/208-niger-another-weak-link-in-the-sahel.aspxhttp://www.rfi.fr/afrique/20130906-niger-combats-entre-armee-narcotrafiquants-passe-salvadorhttp://www.jeuneafrique.com/Article/ARTJAWEB20130930083736/mali-terrorisme-kidal-ibkl-armee-malienne-en-etat-d-alerte-maximum-apres-la-recrudescence-de-violences-dans-le-nord.htmlhttp://www.jeuneafrique.com/Article/ARTJAWEB20130930083736/mali-terrorisme-kidal-ibkl-armee-malienne-en-etat-d-alerte-maximum-apres-la-recrudescence-de-violences-dans-le-nord.htmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-24279323


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$18.2mn to support rule o law. Kyrgyz and Uzbek officials metlate month to discuss disputed section o border in Osh province.

Rising China, sinking Russia,Economist, 14 Sept. 2013.

Centerra, Kyrgyz government sign pact for Kumtor mine, Reuters, 9

Sept. 2013.

Tajikistan Opposition parties 10 Sept announced lawyer and rightsactivist Oynihol Bobonazarova as their candidate in presidentialelections set or 6 Nov; joins 2 other candidates running againstincumbent President Rahkmon, current avourite to win. Dur-ing 23 Sept meeting in Sochi, Russia, Collective Security reatyOrganisation (CSO) agreed to increase assistance to ajik securityorces to protect countrys border with Aghanistan.

Tajik Islamists pin renaissance on secular female candidate, RFE/RL, 24

Sept. 2013.

Turkmenistan In wide-ranging reshuffle o security and law-

enorcement agencies, President Berdymukhamedov 1 Sept dis-missed prosecutor-general and top govt officials over accusationso corruption. During 3 Sept visit, Chinese President Xi Jinpingsigned deals with govt to triple gas exports to China by 2020 vianew pipeline, construction to start 2016.

President of Turkmenistan reshufes government, Turkmenistan.ru, 21

Sept. 2013.

Uzbekistan President Karimov and Chinese President Xi Jinping8 Sept signed agreements worth $15bn in oil, gas, gold sectors.Activist Bobomurad Razzakov jailed or 4 years 24 Sept or humantrafficking; rights groups condemned case as abricated. HumanRights Watch expressed concern over independent journalistSergey Naumov, missing since 21 Sept.

Journalist forcibly disappeared, Human Rights Watch, 23 Sept. 2013.

North East Asia

China (internal) Authorities reported police 23 Aug shot deadup to 12 ethnic Uighurs in Xinjiang region during raid on allegedtraining camp and munitions centre.

Up to 12 Uyghurs shot dead in raid on Xinjiang munitions center, Radio

Free Asia, 17 Sept. 2013.

China-Japan Tensions between China and Japan over Diaoyu/Senkaku islands played out in skies: Japan scrambled fighter jetsas Chinese govt aircraf neared disputed island airspace 26 Aug,causing approaching plane to retreat; again scrambled jets 8-9 Septin response to 2 Chinese bombers flying through gap in Okinawaisland chain, and unidentified drone approaching Diaoyu/Senkakuairspace rom NW. Japan arrested Chinese sailor afer collision inJapanese waters between two cargo ships 27 Sept in which 5 crewmembers o Japanese-registered ship killed, 1 missing. ChinesePresident Xi and Japanese PM Abe held impromptu meeting 5Sept at G20 summit in St. Petersburg, first time leaders have metsince Diaoyu/Senkaku dispute began Sept 2012. China increasedits maritime presence around islands in days around 11 Septanniversary o Japan purchasing islands. In response to increased

Chinese activity, Japans top govt spokesperson 10 Sept suggestedJapan station civil servants on islands. China showcased newguided missile rigate in East China Sea 1 Sept.

Japans leader gives no ground in islands dispute, New York Times, 27

Sept. 2013.

Korean Peninsula rack 1.5 talks on DPRK nuclear issues com-menced 18 Sept in Beijing with attendance o DPRK First ViceFM Kim Kye-gwan and chie DPRK 6-Party Talks negotiatorRi Yong-ho. ROK and U.S. sent ormer officials and academics,

withholding official participation pending indication o DPRKsintent to denuclearise. Kim Kye-gwan, DPRKs first vice FM andchie nuclear negotiator, called or resumption o talks without pre-conditions. 31 Aug satellite imagery appeared to indicate 5MW(e)nuclear reactor in Yngbyn has been restarted. Kaesng IndustrialComplex (KIC) reopened 16 Sept afer 5 months inactivity, includ-ing 90 o 123 S Korean firms actories, some 32,000 N Koreansreportedly returning to work; negotiations continue over access,procedures. Pyongyang suddenly cancelled scheduled DPRK-ROKamily reunion, first in 3 years, only 4 days beore it was to occurlate Sept. U.S. basketball star Dennis Rodman visited DPRK orsecond time 3-7 Sept, spent 2 days with leader Kim Jong-un andamily, other senior leaders. UN Central Emergency ResponseFund (CERF) allocated some $2.1m aid ollowing reports o heavy

flood damage in DPRK. Daniel Pinkston, Is Dennis Rodman Smart on North Korea?, CNN, 10

Sept. 2013.

Picking up steam, Economist, 21 Sept. 2013.

South Asia

Afghanistan Preparations or 2014 polls continue: parliamentar-ians rom eastern provinces 9 Sept announced ormation o alli-ance ahead o presidential elections, did not name candidate. NewHarakat-e-Milli (National Movement) party emerged 4 Sept. For-

mer Finance Minister Ashra Ghani 30 Sept announced candidacy.Head o Independent Election Commission (IEC) secretariat 3 Septsaid hal o Aghanistans voting centres seriously vulnerable aferopposition expressed concerns about security in run-up to polls.Pakistan 7 Sept released 7 Aghan Taliban detainees, ostensiblyto advance peace process, but did not hand them over to Aghanauthorities; political opposition, civil society expressed concernsreleased detainees will rejoin insurgency; senior Taliban leaderMullah Baradar released rom custody 21 Sept, reportedly to saehouse in Karachi. Foreign ministry official 1 Sept said several ali-ban leaders in secret talks with govt. 22 insurgents killed 8 Sept inWardoj district, Badakhshan province; National Security Forces17 Sept announced Wardoj cleared o insurgents. 18 insurgents

reportedly killed 11 Sept in Helmand, 2 Taliban commandersarrested and weapons seized. Insurgents 2 Sept attacked U.S. basein Nangarhar province, 13 Sept attacked U.S. consulate in Heratkilling 10 and injuring 30; 4 Aghan soldiers injured 10 Sept insuicide bomb attack on military installation in Logar province.

In Afghanistan, still no end in sight, VoA, 30 Sept. 2013.

Bangladesh Supreme Court (SC) 17 Sept rejected Jamaat-e-Islami(JeI) leader Abdul Kader Mullahs appeal against InternationalCrimes Tribunal (ICT) jail term or 1971 war crimes, increasedsentence to death penalty. JeI 18 Sept said trial politically motivated,called or 48h nationwide strike, demonstrations: 2 civilians diedin 19 Sept protest in Mujibnagar town, 4 police injured in Chit-tagong. IC 1 Oct sentenced to death senior opposition BangladeshNationalist Party (BNP) MP Salauddin Quader Chowdhury or1971 crimes. SC 24 Sept started hearing on appeal filed by JeIleader Delwar Hossain Sayedee against 28 Feb IC death penalty
http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21586304-vast-region-chinas-economic-clout-more-match-russias-rising-china-sinkinghttp://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/09/idUSL3N0H53XO20130909http://www.rferl.org/content/tajikistan-islamists-woman-candidate/25116284.htmlhttp://www.turkmenistan.ru/en/articles/17393.htmlhttp://www.hrw.org/news/2013/09/24/uzbekistan-journalist-forcibly-disappearedhttp://www.rfa.org/english/news/uyghur/raid-09172013222650.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/28/world/asia/japans-leader-gives-no-ground-in-islands-dispute.html?_r=0http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/north-east-asia/north-korea/op-eds/pinkston-is-dennis-rodman-smart-on-north-korea.aspxhttp://www.economist.com/news/asia/21586593-north-korea-appears-be-firing-up-its-old-nuclear-reactor-picking-up-steamhttp://www.voanews.com/content/in-afghanistan-still-no-end-in-sight/1759638.htmlhttp://www.voanews.com/content/in-afghanistan-still-no-end-in-sight/1759638.htmlhttp://www.economist.com/news/asia/21586593-north-korea-appears-be-firing-up-its-old-nuclear-reactor-picking-up-steamhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/north-east-asia/north-korea/op-eds/pinkston-is-dennis-rodman-smart-on-north-korea.aspxhttp://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/28/world/asia/japans-leader-gives-no-ground-in-islands-dispute.html?_r=0http://www.rfa.org/english/news/uyghur/raid-09172013222650.htmlhttp://www.hrw.org/news/2013/09/24/uzbekistan-journalist-forcibly-disappearedhttp://www.turkmenistan.ru/en/articles/17393.htmlhttp://www.rferl.org/content/tajikistan-islamists-woman-candidate/25116284.htmlhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/09/idUSL3N0H53XO20130909http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21586304-vast-region-chinas-economic-clout-more-match-russias-rising-china-sinking


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verdict. Viability o Oct elections remained in question: AwamiLeague (AL) leader/PM Sheikh Hasina 17 Sept stated polls tobe held on schedule under current govt; BNP 9 Sept threatenedelection boycott, 12 Sept threatened to resign rom parliament i

elections not held under caretaker govt. Abdul Kader Mullah gets death penalty for war crimes, BBC, 17 Sept.

2013.

Kashmir India and Pakistan PMs met 29 Sept, agreed to stop Kash-mir attacks ollowing several exchanges o heavy fire on line-o-control (LoC) during Sept; at least 9 killed 26 Sept in militant attackon Indian police station and army camp near Pakistan border aheado talks. Pakistani Finance Minister Ishaq Dar 7 Sept assured IMFIndia would retain Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status despiteAug threat to withdraw status afer military exchanges with Indiaalong LoC lef 2 Pakistanis injured. Indian police 7 Sept killed 4in Shopian, imposed curew in district; police claimed 2 victimswere rebels attempting attack on base, residents said victims civil-ians; police 11 Sept violently dispersed mass protest, killing 1 andinjuring 13. All Parties Hurriyat Conerence mid Sept called strikein Kashmir valley to protest killings. Suspected separatist rebels23 Sept killed Indian soldier, injured another at Srinagar market;Indian army 23 Sept killed suspected militant trying to cross LoCin Kupwara region. PMs Singh and Shari 29 Sept met on sidelineso UNGA, tasked Directors General Military Operations to seekmeans to restore 2003 ceasefire.

Why the border in Kashmir is restive again, BBC, 23 Sept. 2013.

India (non-Kashmir)Army 7 Sept killed 1 Maoist near Jal Mahadeb;14 Sept killed at least 14 Maoists in Odishas Malkangiri district.Maoist patrol ambush 16 Sept killed 2 police, injured 2 in Bihar

district. 4 CPI (Maoist) members accused o connection with2005 Madhuban blast arrested 16 Sept in Bihars East Champarandistrict. 1 Maoist and 1 police killed 19 Sept in gun battle in SChhattisgarh. 5 suspected Maoists arrested 27 Sept in Chhattisgarh.

Maoists aim to tap popular unrest against economic policies, TNN, 20

Sept. 2013.

Nepal Constituent Assembly (CA) 19 Nov elections expected togo ahead despite 17 Sept ailure o all-party talks to bring 33-partyanti-election alliance, led by Communist Party o Nepal-Maoist(CPN-M), on board; process ailed afer major parties reusedcore CPN-M demands including postponing election date andresignation o head o govt Khila Raj Regmi rom chie justice

post. Alliance 12 Sept organized strikes in Kathmandu to protestelections. Interim govt 17 Sept continued CA election preparation:on govt request, president Ram Baran Yadav issued presidentialdecrees 17 Sept to maintain CA size at 601 seats, 24 Sept to allowdeployment o army to secure elections. CPN-M General SecretaryRam Bahadur Tapa 24 Sept warned o second armed conflict iarmy is deployed.

Election fever grips nation amidst disquiet, Republica, 20 Sept. 2013.

Pakistan All-parties conerence 9 Sept supported talks withPakistani aliban (P) but provided no roadmap or specific pre-conditions; P 13 Sept reportedly presented conditions or talksincluding release o P prisoners, imposition o Sharia law andarmys withdrawal rom FAA. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) govt15 Sept announced armys withdrawal rom Swat rom mid-Oct;militants 16 Sept killed soldier and 2 army officers including topmilitary officer or Malakand Division; Peshawar High Court 17

Sept ordered KPK not to withdraw troops rom Malakand, citinglegal problems and possibility militants would return to area. Over85 killed in aliban attack on church in Peshawar 22 Sept. Bus blast27 Sept killed19 govt employees in Peshawar; 41 killed, 100 injured

29 Sept in car bombing in Peshawar. Armed orces 4 Sept launchedtargeted operation in Karachi to tackle criminal and ethnopoliticalviolence; operation led by paramilitary Rangers; govt issued list o450 terrorists, kidnappers, killers and extortionists to be targeted;over 1,500 reportedly arrested in first hal o Sept. Sindh govt 12Sept reshuffled provincial police orce, appointed respected seniorofficer Shahid Hayat as Karachis new police chie; 10 Sept arrestedMuttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) member Nadeem Hashmior alleged involvement in killing o 2 policemen; MQM calledstrike 11 Sept, shutting down Karachi; Hashmi released 19 Sept.argeted killings in city continued: gunmen 10-11 Sept killed 11;police officer killed 14 Sept; 6 killed 17 Sept.

Car bomb kills 40 in northwest Pakistan, AP, 30 Sept. 2013.

NewCrisis Group Asia Report N249, Parliaments Role in Pakistans Dem-ocratic Transition, 18 September 2013. To consolidate democracy, Pakistans

new parliament needs institutional reform and strong cross-party determina-

tion to fend off an interventionist military and over-reaching judiciary.

Sri Lanka Northern provincial council elections held 21 Sept:amil National Alliance (NA) won 30 o 38 seats, nearly 80% ovote, with high turnout despite pre-poll violence and intimidationo NA candidates by military. Commonwealth Election Observermission 23 Sept expressed concern over heavy military involve-ment in electoral process. Fears o deepened ethnic polarisationafer strongly nationalist rhetoric rom NA campaigners and govt,which repeatedly accused NA o continuing Liberation igers

o amil Eelam (LE) quest or separate state. Polls also held incentral and NW provinces where President Rajapaksas UnitedPeoples Freedom Alliance won large majorities. Indian govt 24Sept welcomed elections, called on Rajapaksa to implement ullyand go beyond devolution o power under 13th amendment.Supreme Court 26 Sept ruled powers over land belong to centralgovt, not provinces; NA 29 Sept said judgment does not conormwith previous rulings.

Alan Keenan,Pillay incurs Sri Lankas wrath, IOL News, 12 Sept. 2013.

Military involvement shrouds Sri Lanka elections, Deutsche Welle, 20

Sept. 2013.

South East Asia

Indonesia In Papua, police reportedly detained over 100 demon-strators in 8 cities during protests organised by National Committeeor West Papua (KNPB) 16 Sept demanding among other thingsthat Vanuatu raise Papua issue at UNGA. Yogyakarta militarycourt 5-6 Sept jailed 12 members o Special Forces Command(Kopassus) or up to 11 years or roles in March prison killings, inruling hailed by rights activists as departure rom past impunityor military personnel. Spate o police killings in Jakarta contin-ued, thought to be work o small terrorist cells, including 10 Septshooting o internal affairs officer. Bekasi district court 12 Sept

sentenced Abdul Aziz bin Naimun or threatening Batak ProtestantCongregation (HKBP) pastor. Bomb exploded 7 Sept at offices olocal newspaper in Banda Aceh, no injuries reported

Indonesian soldiers sentenced for prison murders, VOA, 5 Sept. 2013.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-24108640http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-24156275http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2013-09-20/india/42251584_1_liberation-guerrilla-army-maoist-movement-government-and-security-forceshttp://www.myrepublica.com/portal/index.php?action=news_details&news_id=61719http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/09/30/car-bomb-pakistan/2894347/http:/www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/09/30/car-bomb-pakistan/2894347/http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-asia/pakistan/249-parliament-s-role-in-pakistan-s-democratic-transition.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-asia/pakistan/249-parliament-s-role-in-pakistan-s-democratic-transition.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-asia/sri-lanka/op-eds/keenan-sri-lanka-pillay-incurs-sri-lankas-wrath.aspxhttp://www.dw.de/military-involvement-shrouds-sri-lanka-elections/a-17099045http://www.voanews.com/content/indonesian-soldiers-sentenced-for-prison-murders/1743988.htmlhttp://www.voanews.com/content/indonesian-soldiers-sentenced-for-prison-murders/1743988.htmlhttp://www.dw.de/military-involvement-shrouds-sri-lanka-elections/a-17099045http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-asia/sri-lanka/op-eds/keenan-sri-lanka-pillay-incurs-sri-lankas-wrath.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-asia/pakistan/249-parliament-s-role-in-pakistan-s-democratic-transition.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-asia/pakistan/249-parliament-s-role-in-pakistan-s-democratic-transition.aspxhttp://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/09/30/car-bomb-pakistan/2894347/http:/www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/09/30/car-bomb-pakistan/2894347/http://www.myrepublica.com/portal/index.php?action=news_details&news_id=61719http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2013-09-20/india/42251584_1_liberation-guerrilla-army-maoist-movement-government-and-security-forceshttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-24156275http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-24108640


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Myanmar United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC) ethnicumbrella group met with govt negotiators early-month, aferwardsexpressed doubts about govts proposed nationwide ceasefiresigning next month, but unclear how much influence group will

have over its members. Over 50 organisations attended trust-building conerence with govt oicials in Shan state capitalaunggyi 21-23 Sept; delegates called or improved ethnic rights,govt official pledged to move ahead with political negotiationsearly 2014. Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) 17 Septsaid constitutional changes needed to resolve ethnic grievances.Following Aug visit UN Special Rapporteur on human rights inMyanmar acknowledged progress on several ronts but said criticalchallenges remained. UNSGs Special Adviser on Myanmar alsovisited late-Aug, was granted permission to visit Kachin Independ-ence Organisations HQ at Laiza or first time. President Tein Sein9 Sept named representative o largest Shan political oppositionparty as Deputy Minister or Hotels and ourism, 2nd oppositionlegislator to be appointed by president as a deputy minister. Armed

police 29 Sept dispersed Buddhist mob in Tandwe town, Rakhinestate; mob torched houses, no injuries reported. U.S. Sec Deence28 Aug met Myanmar counterpart on sidelines o deence meetingin Brunei, first meeting between countries deence chies. ASSKcompleted 3-country European tour 17 Sept.

Jim Della-Giacoma, Richard Horsey,A House Divided: Finding Peace in

Multiethnic Myanmar, World Politics Review, 10 Sept. 2013.

Myanmars speaker holds talks with Shan leaders, armed rebel groups,

Radio Free Asia, 6 Sept. 2013.

NewCrisis Group Asia Report N251, The Dark Side of the Transition:

Violence Against Muslims in Myanmar, 1 October 2013. Unless there is an

effective government response and change in societal attitudes, violence

against Myanmars Muslim communities could spread, jeopardising thecountrys transition as well as its standing in the region and beyond.

Philippines Major assault by Moro National Liberation Front(MNLF) rebels, outside peace process between govt and MoroIslamic Liberation Front (MILF), highlighted potential or disa-ected rebel groups to derail peace talks. MNLF rebels enteredZamboanga City 9 Sept; ensuing fighting saw over 200 peoplereported killed, mostly rebels, also security orces and civilians,and over 100,000 residents reported displaced. Airport reopened19 Sept, despite some fighters still holding out; authorities 28Sept declared stando over. Attacks coincided with resump-tion o peace negotiations with MILF ollowing wealth-sharing

agreement signed in July. Govt-MNLF ceasefire plan abandoned14 Sept afer sides ailed to agree terms. Indonesia FM 15 Septsaid Indonesia ready to contribute to restoration o normalcy insouthern Philippines. Abu Sayya Group (ASG) and BangsamoroIslamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) 12 Sept attacked predominantlyChristian outskirts o Lamitan town in Basilan province, severalwounded. Displays o growing tension between Philippines andChina over South China Sea continued.

More Muslim rebels surrender in Philippines south, BBC, 26 Sept. 2013.

Thailand Senior officials continue to voice support or talks withrebel Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) despite stalling o dialogueprocess ollowing ailed Ramadan Peace Initiative; said 4th roundo talks will take place mid-Oct. BRN submitted ormal demandsto Tai authorities early Sept via dialogue acilitator Malaysia. 2separate actions o Patani United Liberation Organisation (PULO)and Barisan Islam Pembebasan Patani (Islamic Liberation Front

o Pattani, BIPP) reportedly conveyed to BRN desire to join pro-cess. Cabinet 18 Sept approved extension o emergency decreein 3 southernmost provinces or 3 months; 33rd extension sincedecree invoked in 2005. Insurgent attacks included 11 Sept ambush

in Tung Yang Daeng District, Pattani Province, killing 5 police;bomb planted by school in Yalas Muang District 10 Sept killed 2 sol-diers; gunmen killed 3 rangers in 12 Sept attack in Yarang District,Pattani. Attacks reflect insurgencys shif to ocus on security orcesin recent months. Opposition lawmakers repeatedly disruptedproceedings in parliament in vain effort to derail consideration oPheu Tai Party (PP)-sponsored draf charter amendment bill torestore all-elected senate. PM Yingluck launched political reormorum 25 Aug, aimed at promoting prospects or reconciliation;Democrat Party members and Peoples Alliance or Democracy(PAD) boycotted meeting. Continued protests by rubber armersin mid-South demanding higher govt subsidies since late August.

BRN pushes for special administration, Nation, 17 Sept. 2013.

Europe

Balkans

Bosnia Ahead o Oct EU deadline to implement 2009 EuropeanCourt o Human Rights Sejdi-Finci ruling which stipulates thatminorities must be able to run or 3-member presidency postscurrently reserved or Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats, Bosniak Partyo Democratic Action (SDA) and Croatian Democratic Union

(HDZ) 5 Sept put orward new proposal or electing members o3-member state presidency. Proposal criticised by other parties.Parties expected to report to EU Enlargement CommissionerFle 1 Oct.

Leaders of six Bosnian parties to meet EU enlargement commissioner,

Dalje, 30 Sept. 2013.

Kosovo Belgrade and Pristina pushing ahead with plans orKosovo-wide municipal elections 3 Nov. Serbian officials registeredstate-backed slate o candidates or first local elections to be heldunder Kosovo law in the our northern municipalities Serbia hascontrolled since 1999 (Leposavi, North Mitrovica, Zubin Potokand Zvean). Central Electoral Committee 2 Sept agreed to print

ballot papers without Republic o Kosovo symbols. As part oEU-mediated April deal normalising Kosovo-Serbia relations,Serbian govt 10 Sept dismissed mayors and dissolved assemblieso the 4 northern municipalities, naming interim govts headed byits chosen candidates or Nov polls completing Serbias adminis-trative withdrawal rom Kosovo and in effect representing Serbiasacquiescence to implementing non-status components o 2006Ahtisaari Plan. Northern Kosovo Serbs continue to reject submis-sion to Pristinas authority and urge boycott o elections. One ormore unknown gunmen opened fire on EULEX convoy 19 Sept,killing Lithuanian policeman en route to northern border post atJarinje; risk o urther violence in run-up to polls. Belgrade alsoormed team or establishing Association o Serbian Municipalitiesin Kosovo, also part o April deal.

Agreement paves way for Kosovo Serbs to participate in elections, SETimes, 11 Sept. 2013.
http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/Op-eds/della-giacoma-a-house-divided-finding-peace-in-multiethnic-myanmar.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/Op-eds/della-giacoma-a-house-divided-finding-peace-in-multiethnic-myanmar.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/Op-eds/della-giacoma-a-house-divided-finding-peace-in-multiethnic-myanmar.aspxhttp://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/shan-09062013195838.htmlhttp://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/shan-09062013195838.htmlhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/251-the-dark-side-of-transition-violence-against-muslims-in-myanmar.aspxhttp:/www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/europe/south-caucasus/b071-armenia-and-azerbaijan-a-season-of-risks.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/251-the-dark-side-of-transition-violence-against-muslims-in-myanmar.aspxhttp:/www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/europe/south-caucasus/b071-armenia-and-azerbaijan-a-season-of-risks.aspxhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-24279599mailto:http://www.nationmultimedia.com/national/BRN-pushes-for-special-administration-30214994.htmlhttp://dalje.com/en-croatia/leaders-of-six-bosnian-parties-to-meet-eu-enlargement-commissioner/485485http://www.setimes.com/cocoon/setimes/xhtml/en_GB/features/setimes/features/2013/09/11/feature-01http://www.setimes.com/cocoon/setimes/xhtml/en_GB/features/setimes/features/2013/09/11/feature-01http://dalje.com/en-croatia/leaders-of-six-bosnian-parties-to-meet-eu-enlargement-commissioner/485485mailto:http://www.nationmultimedia.com/national/BRN-pushes-for-special-administration-30214994.htmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-24279599http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/251-the-dark-side-of-transition-violence-against-muslims-in-myanmar.aspxhttp:/www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/europe/south-caucasus/b071-armenia-and-azerbaijan-a-season-of-risks.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/251-the-dark-side-of-transition-violence-against-muslims-in-myanmar.aspxhttp:/www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/europe/south-caucasus/b071-armenia-and-azerbaijan-a-season-of-risks.aspxhttp://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/shan-09062013195838.htmlhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/Op-eds/della-giacoma-a-house-divided-finding-peace-in-multiethnic-myanmar.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/Op-eds/della-giacoma-a-house-divided-finding-peace-in-multiethnic-myanmar.aspx


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Macedonia UN mediator in name dispute between Greece andMacedonia Matthew Nimetz visited capitals early month, said sig-nificant differences remain. FM Poposki afer meeting with Greekcounterpart on sidelines o UNGA said sides ar rom solution.

UNSG Ban offered to help organise high-level talks. UN chief offers help in Macedonia name dispute, Balkan Insight, 30

Sept. 2013.

Serbia In return or start o membership negotiations with EU,expected Jan 2014, govt agreed to withdraw its institutions romKosovo territory and support Kosovo govts sovereignty over itswhole territory ahead o Nov local elections (see Kosovo).

Serbian PM: Boycott of Kosovo election detrimental to Serbs, Dalje, 21

Sept. 2013.

Caucasus

Armenia President Sargsyan 3 Sept said Armenia to join Russian-led Customs Union and uture Eurasian Economic Union ollowingtalks with Russian President Putin citing national interests. Govtsaid still hoped Armenia would be able to sign planned associa-tion agreement with EU in Nov but EU officials ruled this out.EU Enlargement Commissioner Fle criticised Russian threatsand undue pressure on Armenia and other countries in regionas unacceptable. Police arrested 9 people protesting in Yerevanagainst Customs Union move. Opposition activist Dmitry Haru-tiunian, detained 24 Aug during protest in Yerevan, put in pre-trialdetention or 2 months, charged with insulting police.

Armenias choice stirs competition between Moscow, EU, RFE/RL, 4

Sept. 2013.

Azerbaijan Ahead o 9 Oct presidential election Human RightsWatch warned o govt repression o opposition. Son o one oppo-sition figure beaten and stabbed by unknown assailants 23 Sept;son o another opposition leader Ali Kerimli jailed; Kerimli citedattempt to put pressure on him over his political activities. Bakucourt sentenced editor o alysh minority newspaper olisi Sadoto 5 years prison or high treason, incitement o ethnic/religious/racial hatred, drugs possession. EU Enlargement CommissionerFle said country needs to make reorms on rights to move orwardin EU dialogue.

How not to prepare for an election, Economist, 2 Sept. 2013.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan) Co-Chairs o Minsk Groupmediators and FMs o Azerbaijan and Armenia met on sidelineso UNGA late Sept in attempt to jump-start peace talks, largelystalled since 2011. Mediators pushing or Dec meeting betweenPresidents Aliev and Sargsyan. New U.S. co-chair James Warlickvisited Baku, Yerevan, and Stepanakert (N-K), delivered lettersto Aliev and Sargsyan rom President Obama urging direct dia-logue; noted basic outlines o uture agreement already known.Exchanges o fire reported in conflict zone throughout month.Armenian reports say military exercises planned or 8-11 Oct,during Azerbaijans presidential election.

Press release by the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group and the foreign

ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan, OSCE, 27 Sept. 2013.

NewCrisis Group Europe Brieng N71,Armenia and Azerbaijan: A Season

of Risks, 26 September 2013. Stronger international engagement is needed

to help prevent the deadly conict between Armenia and Azerbaijan from

escalating gravely at a time of internal political tensions in both.

Georgia Ahead o 27 Oct presidential election, 3 o 23 registeredcandidates seen as having realistic chances o getting enough votesto qualiy or second round: PM Ivanishvilis Georgian Dreamcandidate Giorgi Margvelashvili, Davit Bakradze o PresidentSaakashvilis UNM, and ormer parliament speaker Nino Bur-janadze. PM Ivanishvili said country plans to sign associationagreement with EU early 2014, says still wants to improve relationswith Moscow. bilisi sent protest note to Russia 13 Sept over Rus-sian troops continued demarcation o administrative boundaryline (ABL) with Georgian region South Ossetia (SO). U.S. andEU have expressed concern over Russias borderisation activities.Russian embassy general consul and wie shot dead in breakaway

region o Abkhazia 9 Sept. Interview: Georgian PM still aiming for EU, but doesnt rule out Eurasian

Union, RFE/RL, 9 Sept. 2013.

North Caucasus (Russia) Regional and municipal elections 8Sept saw local parliaments elect republic heads (presidents) inDagestan (Ramazan Abdulatipov) and Ingushetia (Yunus-BekYevkurov) rom candidates proposed by Kremlin. Ruling UnitedRussia won Chechen parliamentary elections with 85.94% ovote. Caucasian Knot reported 42 people killed in conflict in Aug.Increasingly harsh counter-terrorism operations, rhetoric aheado Feb 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics; Yevkurov announced homeso amilies helping insurgents will be demolished, land seized;

Putin 27 Sept introduced legislation or compensation or lossescaused by terrorism at expense o terrorists relatives, and crea-tion o mechanism or reviewing legality o property acquired byterrorists relatives and riends. Major insurgency attacks duringmonth included: 3 police killed in suicide bomb attack 16 Sept inSunzhensky district police station, Chechnya; double terroristattack in Ingushetia same day, 1 killed. Investigators suspect groupled by Beslan Makhauri on Chechnya-Ingushetia border; counter-terrorism operation (CO) regime introduced in Sunzhensky. 2police killed, 15 injured by suicide bomber in abasaransky districtpolice station, Dagestan 23 Sept. Dagestan Supreme Court judgeMukhtar Shapiyev shot dead with son 25 Sept. Govt operationsincluded CTO killing leader o Kabardino-Balkarias Urvaninsurgency group Ruslan Makoev and 2 accomplices in Urvansky

district, KBR 5 Sept. Dagestani authorities reported leader o Kadarinsurgency Tagir Sulabanov, ather and associate killed in clashwith police 24 Sept. Security orces continued pressure on Salaficommunities in Dagestan, including harassment o Salafi rightsorganisation Pravozaschita. Religious activist Abdul Gappaevshot dead in Kizlyar, Dagestan 15 Sept.

Ahead of games, Dagestan leader faces pressure to quell violence,

Moscow Times, 18 Sept. 2013.

NewCrisis Group Europe Report N226, The North Caucasus: The Chal-

lenges of Integration (II I), Governance, Elections, Rule of Law, 6 September

2013. Stronger democratic institutions are crucial to easing violence in Rus-

sias North Caucasus, where Europes worst armed conict claimed at least

1,225 victims in 2012 and 495 in the rst six months of 2013.
http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/un-chief-offers-help-in-macedonia-name-disputehttp://dalje.com/en-world/serbian-pm--boycott-of-kosovo-election-detrimental-to-serbs/484247http://www.rferl.org/content/armenia-russia-customs-union-eu-analysys/25095948.htmlhttp://www.economist.com/blogs/easternapproaches/2013/09/azerbaijanhttp://www.osce.org/mg/105978http://www.osce.org/mg/105978http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/europe/south-caucasus/b071-armenia-and-azerbaijan-a-season-of-risks.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/europe/south-caucasus/b071-armenia-and-azerbaijan-a-season-of-risks.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/europe/south-caucasus/b071-armenia-and-azerbaijan-a-season-of-risks.aspxhttp://www.rferl.org/content/georgia-ivanishvili-interview/25100642.htmlhttp://www.rferl.org/content/georgia-ivanishvili-interview/25100642.htmlhttp://www.themoscowtimes.com/olympic_coverage/article/ahead-of-games-dagestan-leader-faces-pressure-to-quell-violence/486230.htmlhttp://www.themoscowtimes.com/olympic_coverage/article/ahead-of-games-dagestan-leader-faces-pressure-to-quell-violence/486230.htmlhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/europe/north-caucasus/226-north-caucasus-the-challenges-of-integration-iii-governance-elections-rule-of-law.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/europe/north-caucasus/226-north-caucasus-the-challenges-of-integration-iii-governance-elections-rule-of-law.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/europe/north-caucasus/226-north-caucasus-the-challenges-of-integration-iii-governance-elections-rule-of-law.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/europe/north-caucasus/226-north-caucasus-the-challenges-of-integration-iii-governance-elections-rule-of-law.aspxhttp://www.themoscowtimes.com/olympic_coverage/article/ahead-of-games-dagestan-leader-faces-pressure-to-quell-violence/486230.htmlhttp://www.rferl.org/content/georgia-ivanishvili-interview/25100642.htmlhttp://www.rferl.org/content/georgia-ivanishvili-interview/25100642.htmlhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/europe/south-caucasus/b071-armenia-and-azerbaijan-a-season-of-risks.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/europe/south-caucasus/b071-armenia-and-azerbaijan-a-season-of-risks.aspxhttp://www.osce.org/mg/105978http://www.osce.org/mg/105978http://www.economist.com/blogs/easternapproaches/2013/09/azerbaijanhttp://www.rferl.org/content/armenia-russia-customs-union-eu-analysys/25095948.htmlhttp://dalje.com/en-world/serbian-pm--boycott-of-kosovo-election-detrimental-to-serbs/484247http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/un-chief-offers-help-in-macedonia-name-dispute


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Eastern Europe

Moldova PM Leanca held talks with leader o breakaway regionrandniester 23 Sept ahead o planned 3 Oct negotiations on issueinvolving OSCE, EU, Russia, U.S. and Ukraine. Russian deputy PMwarned Moldova that its signing o an association agreement withEU would mean cutting relations with Russia, affecting trade,migrant workers and Russian position on ransdniester. Presidentimofi 4 Sept said Moldova committed to EU course.

Moldovan foreign minister says country strong enough to resist Russian

pressure, RFE/RL, 20 Sept. 2013.

Western Europe/Mediterranean

Cyprus urkish FM Davutolu and Greek FM Venizelos 23 Septreached breakthrough agreement on visits by representatives ourkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot leaders to Athens and Ankararespectively in attempt to find political solution on island. Leadersvoiced demand or immediate resumption o intercommunal talkson Cyprus settlement. Israels energy envoy Michael Lotem 10 Septcalled on urkey, Cyprus to move together to develop Israels shareo East Mediterraneans natural gas riches.

Hugh Pope, Israels Plan to Br ing Cyprus and Turkey Together,

Ekathimerini, 19 Sept. 2013.

Greek Cyprus punished for blackmailing Europe, Hrriyet, 9 Sept.

2013.

Turkey Peace talks between govt and Kurdish PKK insurgencycontinue but hang in balance as both sides have blamed each otheror stalling. High-level PKK leader Cemil Bayk 5 Sept announcedhalting militants withdrawals to outside Turkey; jailed PKKhead calan 15 Sept voiced need or new ormat in peace talks.Ceasefire remains in place but tensions continue: PKK 11 Septattacked construction site, abducted 4 in Siirt; 15 Sept set construc-tion vehicles on fire in Elaz. PM Erdoan 30 Sept announceddemocratisation package including plans or education in motherlanguages in private schools, possible lowering o electoral thresh-old, removing headscar ban in public sector. Announcementsparked protests o tens o thousands o Kurds in SE; co-chair opro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) Gltan Kanak30 Sept said package ailed to meet expectations. Amid continuedtensions along Syrian border, govt expressed dissatisaction withU.S.-Russia agreement in addressing Syrian crisis. 2 urkish jets16 Sept shot down Syrian helicopter afer it strayed into urkishairspace. Frequent clashes continue between military and Syriansmugglers: live ammunition smuggled into urkey exploded 3 Sept,killed 5 Syrians, 1 urk. 1 urkish civilian killed 29 Sept in clashesbetween urkish army and Syrian smugglers in Hatay. 1 protesterdied in anti-govt demonstrations in Hatay 10 Sept, sparking moreprotests in Istanbul, Ankara and Hatay

Hugh Pope, Turkeys Tangled Syria Policy, Combating Terrorism Center,

29 Aug. 2013.

Inch by inch, Economist, 14 Sept. 2013.

Border lawlessness fuels Turkeys calls for intervention in Syria,

Financial Times, 13 Sept. 2013.

Latin America

Colombia New cycle o govt-FARC peace negotiations ended 19

Sept amid increasing tensions; talks to resume 3 Oct. President San-tos 24 Sept said beore UNGA that peace will not lead to impunityor serious crimes, also called or aster negotiation results as timeor decisions had come. In reaction, FARC leader imochenko25 Sept slammed Santos or supposedly unilaterally imposingrestrictions on talks. Security orces 25 Sept killed high-rankingmember o FARCs Daniel Aldana mobile column in Tumaco,Nario. VP Garzn 9 Sept announced peace talks with ELN wouldbegin over next days and in different place to Havana, but newsetback 10 Sept when ELN allegedly kidnapped 3 pipeline workersin Saravena, Arauca. ELN 30 Sept reaffirmed willingness to par-ticipate in peace talks. Santos 4 Sept announced cabinet reshuffle,replacing inter alia embattled interior and agriculture ministers;

12 Sept presented National Agrarian Pact to conront agrariancrisis, but initiative rejected by peasant grassroots. Amid socialprotests, Santos approval ratings down to 21%. Former PresidentUribe 16 Sept announced he will run as head o list or Senate inMarch 2014 elections.

Javier Ciurlizza, El Equilibrio Entre Justicia y Paz en Colombia, El

Colombiano, 6 Sept. 2013.

Christian Voelkel and Anna Crowe, The Five Challenges of Negotiating

Transitional Justice in Colombia, Latin America Crime & Politics, 19 Sept.

2013.

Justicia transicional: sus cinco retos en Colombia, Razn pblica, 15

Sept. 2013.

For latest report, see Crisis Group Latin America Report N49, Transitional

Justice and Colombias Peace Talks, 29 Aug. 2013.

Guatemala UN 12 Sept named ormer Colombian magistrateIvn Velsquez next head o International Commission AgainstImpunity in Guatemala (CICIG); outgoing commissioner Fran-cisco DallAnese 22 Aug credited CICIG with helping Guatemalalower impunity rates rom 93% to 70% over past 6 years. Gunmen7 Sept opened fire on residents o Maya town N o GuatemalaCity, killing 11 and injuring about 15; authorities blamed gangmembers allegedly angry because local bars reused to sell themliquor, but media reported some residents suspected corrupt policeresponsible or killings. Police 17 Sept captured son o WaldemarLorenzana Lima, alias Patriarch, arrested in 2011 and fightingextradition to U.S. on drug-trafficking charges.

Can U.N-backed anti-corruption commission leave positive legacy in

Guatemala?, Reuters, 13 Sept. 2013.

NewCrisis Group Latin America Report N50,Justice on Trial in Guatemala:

The Ros Montt Case, 23 September 2013. Ensuring a prompt and fair retrial

of former dictator Jos Efran Ros Montt is crucial to nally bringing justice

to victims of the armed conict and to reconciling a fragile democracy with

its citizens.

Haiti Organization o American States said it is preparing to sendmission to Haiti to help observe 2-year delayed partial Senatorialelections, but doubts remained on possibility to hold elections aspromised beore end-2013. Legislative proposals or impeachment

o president and PM complicating hopes or compromise. Severalthousand supporters o ormer president Aristide demonstratedagainst President Martelly in capital Port-au-Prince 30 Sept.

OAS to send election observers to Haiti, AFP, 22 Sept. 2013.
http://www.rferl.org/content/moldova-eastern-partnership-gherman-russia-wine-ban-eu/25112919.htmlhttp://www.rferl.org/content/moldova-eastern-partnership-gherman-russia-wine-ban-eu/25112919.htmlhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/europe/turkey-cyprus/op-eds/pope-israel-plan-to-bring-cyprus-and-turkey-together.aspxhttp://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/greek-cyprus-punished-for-blackmailing-europe.aspx?pageID=238&nID=54065&NewsCatID=351http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/europe/turkey-cyprus/op-eds/pope-turkeys-tangeld-syria-policy.aspxhttp://www.economist.com/news/europe/21586324-new-tensions-emerge-between-government-and-pkk-inch-inchhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/latin-america-caribbean/andes/colombia/op-eds/colombia-ciurlizza-el-equilibrio-entre-justicia-y-paz-en-colombia.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroupblogs.org/crimeandpolitics/2013/09/19/the-five-challenges-of-negotiating-transitional-justice-in-colombia/http://www.crisisgroupblogs.org/crimeandpolitics/2013/09/19/the-five-challenges-of-negotiating-transitional-justice-in-colombia/http://www.razonpublica.com/index.php/politica-y-gobierno-temas-27/7075-justicia-transicional-sus-cinco-retos-en-colombia.htmlhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/latin-america-caribbean/andes/colombia/049-transitional-justice-and-colombia-s-peace-talks.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/latin-america-caribbean/andes/colombia/049-transitional-justice-and-colombia-s-peace-talks.aspxhttp://www.trust.org/item/20130913161305-obtxe/http://www.trust.org/item/20130913161305-obtxe/http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/latin-america-caribbean/guatemala/050-justice-on-trial-in-guatemala-the-rios-montt-case.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/latin-america-caribbean/guatemala/050-justice-on-trial-in-guatemala-the-rios-montt-case.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/latin-america-caribbean/guatemala/050-justice-on-trial-in-guatemala-the-rios-montt-case.aspxhttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/afp/130922/oas-send-election-observers-haitihttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/afp/130922/oas-send-election-observers-haitihttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/latin-america-caribbean/guatemala/050-justice-on-trial-in-guatemala-the-rios-montt-case.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/latin-america-caribbean/guatemala/050-justice-on-trial-in-guatemala-the-rios-montt-case.aspxhttp://www.trust.org/item/20130913161305-obtxe/http://www.trust.org/item/20130913161305-obtxe/http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/latin-america-caribbean/andes/colombia/049-transitional-justice-and-colombia-s-peace-talks.aspxhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/latin-america-caribbean/andes/colombia/049-transitional-justice-and-colombia-s-peace-talks.aspxhttp://www.razonpublica.com/index.php/politica-y-gobierno-temas-27/7075-justicia-transicional-sus-cinco-retos-en-colombia.htmlhttp://www.crisisgroupblogs.org/crimeandpolitics/2013/09/19/the-five-challenges-of-negotiating-transitional-justice-in-colombia/http://www.crisisgroupblogs.org/crimeandpolitics/2013/09/19/the-five-challenges-of-negotiating-transitional-justice-in-colombia/http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/latin-america-caribbean/andes/colombia/op-eds/colombia-ciurlizza-el-equilibrio-entre-justicia-y-paz-en-colombia.aspxhttp://www.economist.com/news/europe/21586324-new-tensions-emerge-between-government-and-pkk-inch-inchhttp://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/europe/turkey-cyprus/op-eds/pope-turkeys-tangeld-syria-policy.aspxhttp://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/greek-cyprus-punished-for-blackmailing-europe.aspx?pageID=238&nID=54065&NewsCatID=351http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/europe/turkey-cyprus/op-eds/pope-israel-plan-to-bring-cyprus-and-turkey-together.aspxhttp://www.rferl.org/content/moldova-eastern-partnership-gherman-russia-wine-ban-eu/25112919.htmlhttp://www.rferl.org/content/moldova-eastern-partnership-gherman-russia-wine-ban-eu/25112919.html


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Mexico Security orces 1 Sept arrested alleged leader o JurezCartel, Alberto Carrillo Fuentes alias Ugly Betty, in Nayaritstate; 9 Sept arrested alleged leader o Los Rojos gang Leonor NavaRomero alias La Garra in Guerrero state. Tens o thousands

joined protests against education and energy sector reorms inMexico City; police 14 Sept used water cannons and tear gas todisperse protesters, 31 people arrested. 3 local lawmakers romlefist Party o Democratic Revolution (PRD) killed 10-13 Septin separate attacks in Oaxaca and Michoacn states. Authorities24 Sept arrested 3 more police suspected o involvement in Mayabduction and killing o 12 Mexico City bar patrons.

Gunman kills leftist politician in southern Mexico, EFE, 11 Sept. 2013.

Venezuela Govt 10 Sept announced decision to proceed withcountrys withdrawal rom Inter-American Court on HumanRights, prompting concern domestically and abroad. France seizedmore than 1.3 tons o cocaine on Air France flight rom Venezuela;authorities jailed 22 people, including National Guard officials andairport staff. Govt 30 Sept announced expulsion o 3 U.S. diplomatsaccused o plotting to sabotage economy.

Venezuela arrests 3 soldiers over 1.3-tonne Air France cocaine haul,

Reuters, 22 Sept. 2013.

Middle East and North Africa

Eastern Mediterranean

Israel-Palestine Secret Palestinian-Israeli talks held 3, 16 Sept:Palestinian officials 5 Sept stated no progress made, negotiatorSaeb Erekat 19 Sept said talks undermined by hardline Israelinegotiating positions, settlement expansion and 7 Palestinianskilled by Israeli security orces since talks began, criticised lack oU.S. participation. In Israel, deputy deence minister and seniorLikud party official Danny Danon 3 Sept said PM Netanyahuhas no place in Likud i peace deal signed. Israeli right-wingcriticism o negotiations mounted afer 2 Israeli soldiers killed bysuspected Palestinian sniper in Hebron 23 Sept, and by Palestin-ian in Beit Amin village, West Bank 21 Sept. U.S. Sec State Kerry 8Sept urged EU to postpone unding boycott it plans to impose onIsraeli companies in WB, said ban would harm peace talks. Israel

expressed scepticism over prospects o international diplomacyregarding Iranian nuclear program (see Iran): Netanyahu 2 Septsaid despite Irans charm offensive, Iranian policy toward Israelhas not changed, 30 Sept warned U.S. President Obama not totrust ehran; govt 29 Sept announced arrest o Iranian spy. Net-anyahu 15 Sept expressed support or complete destruction oSyrias chemical arsenal under Russian-U.S. initiative (see Syria).Israeli army 3 Sept carried out joint missile test with U.S. inMediterranean.Gaza acing worsening uel shortages and financialcrisis due to Egypts closure o tunnels in wake o its July militarytakeover. Hamas, earing popular uprising and perceived prospecto Egyptian-Israeli military invasion due to Egyptian govts aggres-sive anti-Hamas rhetoric, taking some apparent steps to improverelations with Egyptian military.

Israel sceptical about easing of pressure on Iran to halt nuclear

programme, Guardian, 23 Sept. 2013.

Lebanon Army and police deployed in Hizbollah-controlledsouthern suburb o Beirut 23 Sept to take over security romHizbollah militants at checkpoints. Clashes in ripoli mid-monthinjured 7, killed 1 amid continued tensions between Alawite and

Sunni residents. 5 people killed in clash in Hizbollah strongholdBaalbek in East 28 Sept, security orces deployed to restore calm;ollowed clash 25 Sept in which several wounded. Several rocketsrom Syria ell in East mid-Sept wounding 2. European Com-mission 12 Sept pledged urther $77mn to Lebanon to help copewith Syrian reugee influx, now reported to number 759,932 inLebanon alone. Political deadlock still unresolved: caretaker PMNajib Mikati, MPs rom Future Movement and its March 14 allies,and Free Patriotic Movement 23 Sept boycotted parliament sessionor 5th time, prompting Parliament speaker Berri to postpone itonce again.

Security forces begin deployment in Hezbollah stronghold, Daily Star,

23 Sept. 2013.

Syria UN Security Council 27 Sept unanimously passed resolutioncalling or Syria to destroy chemical weapons (CW) productionacilities by Nov and dismantle CW stockpile by mid-2014, andallow ull access to inspectors. In case o non-compliance anotherresolution needed to authorise punitive measures including mili-tary orce. UNSG Ban called v ote historic, announced tentativedate or new peace conerence in Geneva mid-Nov. PresidentAssad 29 Sept said Syria would abide by resolution. Resolutionollowed extensive diplomacy between U.S and Russia in wakeo 21 Aug CW attack near Damascus. U.S. President Obama 9Sept delayed U.S. Congress vote authorising military action aferRussia proposed placing Syria CW under international control,leading to 14 Sept U.S.-Russia agreement serving as basis or UNSC

resolution. UN investigation team 16 Sept released report on AugGhouta chemical attack confirming sarin gas was used, conclu-sions suggest attack launched rom regime stronghold. Moscowsaid investigation biased, received new evidence rom Damascuso rebel culpability or attack. UN team inspecting urther CWattacks, 3 o which allegedly took place afer 21 Aug attack. Regimere-escalated campaign to drive rebels rom remaining strongholdsin Damascus outskirts. Infighting between rebel actions contin-ued, including clashes in north between al-Qaeda-affiliated rebelgroups and Free Syrian Army (FSA) groups; ragile truce betweenFSA and al-Qaeda branch Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant(ISIL) 20 Sept afer ISIL captured Azaz town. ISIL mid-Sept killedaid worker affiliated with Salafi group Ahrar al-Sham, prompt-ing criticism rom prominent Salafi militants. Syrian NationalCoalition (NC) pushing to establish provisional govt, 14 Septelected new interim PM to orm 13-minister interim cabinet; 19Sept reaffirmed willingness to attend Geneva peace talks i goal isestablishing transitional govt. urkish army 16 Sept shot Syrianhelicopter violating its airspace.

Syria chemical weapons: UN adopts binding resolution, BBC, 28 Sept.

2013.

Gulf

Bahrain Largest opposition party Al-Weqa 18 Sept suspended

participation in national dialogue process afer continued govtcrackdown on opposition and Shia groups. ens o thousands 27Sept protested in Manama against govt and in support o arrested
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/agencia-efe/130911/gunman-kills-leftist-politician-southern-mexicohttp://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/23/france-cocaine-idUSL5N0HI15020130923http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/23/israel-iran-nuclear-rouhani-netanyahuhttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/23/israel-iran-nuclear-rouhani-netanyahuhttp://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2013/Sep-23/232256-security-force-readies-to-take-over-hezbollah-checkpoints.ashxhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24308763http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24308763http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2013/Sep-23/232256-security-force-readies-to-take-over-hezbollah-checkpoints.ashxhttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/23/israel-iran-nuclear-rouhani-netanyahuhttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/23/israel-iran-nuclear-rouhani-netanyahuhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/23/france-cocaine-idUSL5N0HI15020130923http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/agencia-efe/130911/gunman-kills-leftist-politician-southern-mexico


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politician Khalil al-Marzooq. Court 29 Sept sentenced 50 accusedo orming Feb 14 revolution youth coalition to up to 15 yearsprison, including Iraqi cleric Hadi al-Mudaressi. Police 18 Septarrested opposition figure Khalil Al Marzooq on charges o incit-

ing and advocating terrorism; 15 Sept jailed 3 Shia men or 10 yearsor attempting to kill police during Feb protests. Govt 16 Sept filedlawsuit to close Shia Muslim clerics council, accused o operatingillegally and political involvement. Govt 4 Sept issued resolutionrequiring that political groups contacting oreign organisationsseek prior approval rom oreign ministry.

Bahrain opposition suspends talks after arrest, AFP, 17 Sept. 2013.

Iran New President Rouhani took unprecedented steps towardsending sanctions regime against Iran, negotiating nuclear pro-gram: 27 Sept spoke with U.S. President Obama in first direct talksbetween U.S. and Iranian leaders since 1979 revolution; 24 Sept

visited New York or annual UNGA meeting, said Iran ready ortime-bound and results-oriented nuclear talks; 23 Sept met withEU oreign policy chie Ashton. Hardliner Saeed Jalili replacedas chie negotiator 5 Sept when nuclear portolio handed to FMMohammad Zari; Zari declared nuclear program must remainpeaceul and be conducted under International Atomic EnergyAgency (IAEA) supervision, 29 Sept said right to enrich notnegotiable but prepared to negotiate aspects o nuclear program.U.S. Sec State Kerry 29 Sept said deal could be reached within3-6 months. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei 17 Sept endorsedRouhanis approach, calling or Iran to show heroic leniencyin nuclear negotiations. Head o Revolutionary Guards GeneralMohammad Ali Jaari said Rouhanis 27 Sept conversation withObama tactical error, should have waited or U.S. to take practicalsteps showing no hostile intent towards Iran. Govt 18 Sept released

80 prisoners ahead o UNGA, including human rights lawyerNasrin Sotoudeh and reormist politician Mohsen Aminzadeh;also used social media to suggest sofer line on Israel. On Syria,Khamenei 5 Sept said chemical weapons pretext or U.S. invasionor which it would suffer; FM Zari 10 Sept supported Russianproposal to place Syrian chemical weapons under internationalcontrol. Ex-president Rasanjani 1 Sept quoted by Iranian LabourNews Agency as stating Syrian regime used chemical weapons;oreign ministry 2 Sept said remarks distorted. Russia 11 Septagreed to supply Iran with S-300 anti-aircraf missiles and buildadditional nuclear reactor at Bushehr nuclear site.

U.S. and Iran agree to speed talks to defuse nuclear issue, New York

Times, 27 Sept. 2013.

For latest report, see Group Middle East Brieng N36,Great Expectations:Irans New President and the Nuclear Talks, 13 Aug. 2013.

Iraq UNHCR 24 Sept expressed concern over increased sectarianviolence; UNSG Ban 30 Sept expressed concern, called or seriouspolitical dialogue. Attacks continued with over 660 reported killedincluding 18 in bombing o Sunni mosque near Samarra 20 Sept; 73killed 21 Sept in bomb attack on Shiite area o Baghdad; 27 killed24-25 Sept in clashes between insurgents and security orces; 51killed 30 Sept in car bombings. Series o bombings in Erbil 29 Septkilled 11, first such attack since 2007. Political leaders early Septunited in opposition to possible U.S. military strike on Syria. Shiite,Kurdish and Sunni leaders increasingly aligned with Iran; Iran FMMohammed Jawad Zari visisted Baghdad; Sunni leader Osamaal-Nujayfi visited Iran 12 Sept. Kurdistan elections held 21 Sept;Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) won comortable majority.

Once calm area of Iraq is shaken by bombings,New York Times, 29

Sept. 2013.

For latest report, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N144, Make or

Break: Iraqs Sunnis and the State, 14 Aug. 2013.

Yemen National Dialogue 18 Sept deadline passed without agree-ment on southern issue. Hiraak activists in south preparing tooppose dialogue outcome through protests, civil disobediencecampaigns. Suspected al-Qaeda militants 20 Sept killed at least 38soldiers in several attacks on military bases in Shabwa province,south. 20 injured 26 Sept in twin explosions in Sanaa, al-Qaedadenied responsibility. Sabotage o oil and electricity inrastructureby tribesmen in Marib caused widespread blackouts. Assassina-tions continued including 2 military officials killed 23-24 Sept inSanaa in targeted shootings, army officer killed 25 Sept by car bomb.Gunmen 30 Sept seized military HQ in Mukalla, Hadramaut prov-ince, 4 killed. ensions between Huthis and adversaries including

Salafis, Islah and Ahmars continued, with over 60 killed in Amranalone in fighting between Huthis and Ahmars; one-year ceasefirereached by presidential mediation committee 14 Sept but situa-tion remains tense.

Truce Reached in Amran, Yemen Times, 17 Sept. 2013.

NewCrisis Group Middle East Report N145,Yemens Southern Ques-

tion: Avoiding a Breakdown, 25 September 2013. Yemen must agree on its

state structure, including the Souths status, to forge a stable future. A nal

agreement cannot be forced by the National Dialogue Conference; for some

key issues, only continued, more inclusive talks in the context of condence-

building measures can succeed.

North Africa

Algeria President

CrisisWatch N°122

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