CRISIS RISK OFFSETSM CLASS MANAGEMENT & THE …

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EDUCATIONAL OVERVIEW: CRISIS RISK OFFSET SM CLASS MANAGEMENT & THE SYSTEMATIC TREND FOLLOWING STRATEGY Rhode Island State Investment Commission November 16, 2016

Transcript of CRISIS RISK OFFSETSM CLASS MANAGEMENT & THE …

EDUCATIONAL OVERVIEWCRISIS RISK OFFSETSMCLASS MANAGEMENT

amp THE SYSTEMATIC TREND FOLLOWING STRATEGY Rhode Island State Investment Commission

November 16 2016

1Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following

Table of Contents

Section Tab

Brief Background amp Review of CROSM class management 1

Systematic Trend Following Strategy amp Benchmark Review 2

Due Diligence Plan Update Relating To STF and Platform 3Manager

Appendix

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 2

Background amp Review Crisis Risk OffsetSM (CROSM) Class

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 3

Background

bull At its September 28 2016 meeting the RISIC approved a 8 allocation to a CROSM class

bull CROSM rationale produce appreciation during a growth crisis

bull Key features of the CROSM class In aggregate high-confidence of negative conditional crisis correlation Relatively high volatility must be gt= to the volatility of the Total Portfolio Responsive and complementary strategies

Duration first responder during a flight-to-quality a crisis Systematic trend following (STF) performs well when crisis is confirmed

Because of low cross-correlations individual components must exhibit higher isolated volatilities than the CRO portfolio volatility target

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 4

CROSM Implementation Considerations

bull All underlying strategiescomponent portfolios will have high liquiditymarketability

bull All-in costs will be reasonable (likely in the 40bp ndash 100bp range)

bull Given highly-volatile components there should be continual oversight

bull The systematic trend following strategy component will bull employ long and short positionsbull will use derivatives leverage to establish volatility levels

bull Managers are not seeking ldquoalphardquo they are seeking risk capturebull Duration managers capturing interest rate riskbull STF managers capturing trendmomentum risks across dozens of markets

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 5

CROSM Implementation Considerations (Platform Manager)

bull Act as fiduciary to the plan

bull Key role gathering and accounting for all long-short positions across all component managers

bull Reconciling manager position data with primary broker position data

bull Provide account administrative functions very similar to RISIC custodian function

bull Netting all positions and providing risk analyticscharacteristics of aggregate portfolio

bull Monitoring and managing risk levels per client directionguidelinesbull Re-setting manager account levels (ie rebalancing among managers)bull Directing managers to adjust collateral levels

bull Provide best-practices user-interfaces to asset-owners such as RISIC

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 6

CROSM Class Management Diagram

bull Within this construct the asset-owner (ie RISIC)bull Searches for and selects platform managerbull Searches for and selects component managers (funds)bull Determines level of guideline authority to assign to platform manager

PlatformManager

RIA and Fiduciary

BrokersTrade Execution Admin - NAV Calculations

SubscriptionsRedemptions

Trade Reconciliation

(vetted by platform manager)

PlatformManager

Client CustodianCash Safekeeping

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 7

Systematic Trend Following Benchmark Review

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 8

bull Momentum and Trend Following are somewhat interchangeable terms

bull That which has done well recently will continue to do well

bull That which has done poorly recently will continue to do poorly

bull Buy what is going up sell what is going down

Ex if SampP 500 has a positive 1-year return buygo long Ex if oil has a negative 1-year return sellshort

bull This results in a volatile yet low correlation return vs risky assets (eg equities) over a full market cycle

Often a positive correlation during strong (extended) bull markets and a negative correlation during major bear markets

Description ndash What is Systematic Trend Following

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 9

bull Trend horizon or lookback period = the length of time that the signal is ldquolooking backrdquo to see if the total return index is higher (lower) today than 30 days 3 months 1 year ago etc

bull Moving average (MA) crossover is a methodology to identify a trend - if short term MA is above longer term MA = Uptrend (buy market)- if short term MA is below longer term MA = Downtrend (sell market)

bull The trend horizon of a moving average is half of its moving average ndash this makes sense

Trend Following Terminology

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Example The average lookback of an equally weighted moving average is total days in the moving average divided by two

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 10

bull Manage long and short positions according to systematic signals

bull Implemented in futures and forwards (currency) markets (see Appendix)

bull Investable universe includes liquid markets across the globe Equities = typically broad indices such as SampP 500 Nikkei 225 etc Fixed Income = typically sovereign bondsrates such as US 10-year Treasury Currencies = typically major currencies such as JPY GBP EUR AUD CAD CHF Commodities = energy metals and agriculture components

bull Strategy implementation volatility is customizable (range anywhere from roughly 5-30 (capable of offsetting equity asymp 18-20)

bull Systematic = rules-based implementation

bull Related terms = managed futures CTAs (commodity trading advisors)

How do systematic trend following managers invest

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 11

Basic Trend Following Example

bull Single Asset Example 21 day average price gt 252 day average price = long position 21 day average price lt 252 day average price = short position

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 12

bull The RISICrsquos Trend Following allocation and corresponding managers should be compiled based on assessing the following criteria

Trend Horizons Short asymp lt1 month Medium asymp 1-11 months Long asymp12+ months

Systematic implementation = quantitatively-oriented firmso Graduate (PhD Masters) backgrounds in mathematics physics computer scienceo Straight forward strategy design (ie humility)

Focus on global futures markets (ie utilize forwards on limited basis)

Strong focus on risk management and diversification

Target gt15 annual standard deviationo Required in order to meaningfully impact portfolio

RISIC Mandate ndash Trend Following Allocation

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 13

Why medium-term trends

o Trend Horizons Short asymp lt1 month | Medium asymp 1-11 months | Long asymp12+ months

o Medium to long-term trends provide most robust return patterns - whyo Short term trends are too short (risk getting whipsawed in choppy markets)o Long term trends are too long (longer time to turn lower hit ratios)

o The average of all trend horizons traded is the horizon of the strategy

Using a larger number of moving average signals reduces the dependency on individual data points and leads to an increased robustness of the strategy vs more concentrated strategies shorter drawdown periods

What length of trend is best How many

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 14

bull Benchmarking Trend Following strategies is imperfectbull Primarily due to different volatility targets markets traded and trend horizons (lookback)

bull Benchmark characteristicsbull Construction based on consistently applied tradingrisk-management rulesbull Inclusive of markets traded by managers (rates currency commodities equities)bull Broad scalable investible published available at low cost as a simple option bull Comparable to the strategies run by managers that will be sourced

bull Institutional investors track several major benchmarks bull MLM 3X IndexTM (Investable rules-based)bull Credit Suisse Managed Futures Liquid IndexTM 15 Target Volatility (Investable rules-based)bull Societe Generale Trend IndexTM (Uninvestable 10 largest trend managers)

Trend Following Benchmarks

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 15

Investable Trend Following Benchmark Comparisons

Source Mount Lucas Management Credit Suisse

Several distinctions between indices can produce different performance behaviors

Selected Investable STF Benchmark Characteristics

MLM Index 3X trade (with interest on cash)

Credit Suisse Managed Futures Liquid Indextrade

15 Target VolBasic trend signal Time-series momentum Moving Average Crossover

of look-back periods utilized 1 16Range of look-back periods only 12-months 1-month to 9-months

Average look-back period 12-months 5 monthsMarkets traded

Number of markets 22 31

Major market segmentsFixed Income (5)

Currencies (6) Commodities (11)

Fixed Income (4) Currencies (5)

Commodities (17) (in 4 aggregated contracts)

Equities (5)Contracts traded 22 18Trading Frequency Monthly Daily

Volatility Framework

Leveraged to set volatility at 3-times non-levered index volatility Volatility is not

bounded but results from construction

Leveraged to target volatility at an expected forward-looking standard deviation of 15

(within a range of variation)SampP 500

1995-2016 Volatility

Index Volatility 1995-2016 141 147 149Inclusion of return on cash Yes YesYear of Inception Index 1970 1995

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 16

The Credit Suisse MF Liquid Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLMtrade 3x Index

Several years where indices diverge particularly in more recent calendar years but both provided major offset in severe down markets-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Annu

al R

etur

ns -

Calendar Year Returns

MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol 7030 Portfolio

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 17

The Credit Suisse MF Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLM 3x Index

CSMF IndexTM

15 volhas produced a similar but more consistent return pattern versus MLM 3X IndexTM

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

Growth of $1 ndash Index Comparisons

MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol

SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio

Returns to systematic trend following are episodic with long periods of little going on

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 18

The Credit Suisse MF Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLM 3x Index

Comparative Performance Statistics

MLM 3x and Credit Suisse 15 Vol exhibit similar statistical characteristics

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Periods Ending 93020161 Year 85 124 07 24 162 01 125 105 12 154 125 12

3 Years 139 145 10 130 156 08 79 90 09 112 108 105 Years 33 129 03 46 138 03 120 92 13 164 111 15

10 Years 58 163 03 79 144 05 62 124 04 72 153 0420 Years 98 141 05 117 147 06 71 121 04 79 154 04

Statistical MeasuresLargest Drawdown - period

Largest Drawdown - -5095Largest Drawdown - of months 16

Recovery PeriodRecovery Duration 37

Crisis Period ReturnsLTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98) -100

Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02) -206Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09) -388

SampP 500

Nov-07 - Feb-09

Mar-09 - Mar-12

113 127 -145

Jun-09 - Jul-11 Dec-12 - Nov-14 Mar-09 - Apr-1126 24

326 277 -309

121 143 -88

26

-2509 -277 -42163 21 16

MLM 3x Credit Suisse 15 Vol 7030

Mar-09 - May-09 Mar-11 - Nov-12 Nov-07 - Feb-09

Data

Growth of $1 - Selected Indices

SampP 500 Index3466934700347313475934790348203485134881349123494334973350043503435065350963512535156351863521735247352783530935339353703540035431354623549035521355513558235612356433567435704357353576535796358273585535886359163594735977360083603936069361003613036161361923622036251362813631236342363733640436434364653649536526365573658636617366473667836708367393677036800368313686136892369233695136982370123704337073371043713537165371963722637257372883731637347373773740837438374693750037530375613759137622376533768137712377423777337803378343786537895379263795637987380183804738078381083813938169382003823138261382923832238353383843841238443384733850438534385653859638626386573868738718387493877738808388383886938899389303896138991390223905239083391143914239173392033923439264392953932639356393873941739448394793950839539395693960039630396613969239722397533978339814398453987339904399343996539995400264005740087401184014840179402104023840269402994033040360403914042240452404834051340544405754060340634406644069540725407564078740817408484087840909409404096941000410304106141091411224115341183412144124441275413064133441365413954142641456414874151841548415794160941640416714169941730417604179141821418524188341913419444197442005420364206442095421254215642186422174224842278423094233942370424014243042461424914252242552425834261411025910659101109735444795000011129616668719730211748013354685194120205672645138931241965009769575412450699222939992129761187301480581292940470271952513497005569168912137574977766538731422525270106010514357547551179966144953800076712951470846209378406315087940415803691151452745893837461447585345253298514781293960381431561348081035090416044412880716591725737049449876516915674558707691797290421862691918113092871532211736864475451223718405552846356619195264510146997352040123602015828222025174407362882207917646405505612193115334285272921198652821201449221801504468230752256164903450843522812083338791482244568345475183512570902447635128825968685623562435255220242308371642655821841460915226276701299414293224770902915189862391787177920535525862394754854749274296558769989482900960405551408930222205505034578292822949138280023045358671038112431632140516072873308856219998935533259977402088765131582661071435956314279060321859173056678140690402232501658669961042331614423409612513511465129484386633351895799842701327215449692256753592171206721594134840468533992741341262389290458933496915703059332534423638180916072365613461119509613463090703723995334485457227683547317680031981420853192366641381297733056956571503342300421621321822428140493269215101303270095962331173053020056052787829788316686907052949639118337536127649917095296064254158037939961412590124564646146627887871187545059281332844539954552772253850096712227187493507898459282097432637954442650023282200944263041310991265712443127696486875822525637361608997226743065681956152020960944423275221988055075325237232831515192618932191643052508121921342220045324092102208674464422621226000986067275229750234673192224185807204046941244953855362587424926504321696896254125711559699925143197901716707265663029029538712680008636849986528204410894209262872337205466271291226269262225212868287525963656228232554118060267286193401094776962917455530760156628208877526919953283217130370276322862758753782752629065589627156293024274600705612312709993712960313050798698663641131148654713355772305973235249293743001597437795571630970482363174709310138410384831563216755592511472831874831166196183321330172986423731596395909755043279073967514378332800576897046323336697921848180483376070062371705534182709381513519346407576872258013364310386583369433690204211245862338990834773555873470588166411665135601293411050863367618955762511183746037159219988637984816794490683385583875280874937802643132536975382260327356213913991944598580941941312634650714166406268449155123173936741272313143239957923913978401414523502683611964211144263762814340351184335375292400727611634612043766839549365352836444172640109791362874626977573238054662131138102385493727388428953529966061695843935003143467775993551068904805874132346686653876708269156779646908124983132286826009252479534890663612311955100993806420657318827379658224668999566581152461698228251029425993071592102619260450577352868252801406410007451229025371814087202301080181827526562954800904455345831320889587226666319253827562601433077606897703477631730127115322853364345378037681734175020350106773314444362241332432979989220961107431888864653504814304506768576317473316687723333249734427218568199134344306612900559553673062946423169376011453825339853889086466915490138906421015022561400580510770672323960539509989637438943985001728101381534221061930223608169128582674335451483884331213721163310728886371297675144528233750849114310024239188871546311134088183079711177142226843030336747419608139192456253943896900269896410638545256101574163464210351613742571421550845248436697642268570534286187358866019543110472455474422435027777548192424575622164251887746378506256857133481177002414892834904637185615003550194056957583948495214565943523245204209873500485850532877871689719521196102368607855451711230775638156179884233142952576012353042414745560823256271471758149528790830782586379848326737555907190592043554660460095709565786617116196907537966085999933902138963294399312582256240827772220609663931039698627927656507846665210166548665770485471663522057973709076671745763071973566611321800154363466747904894358454676089528674956696629733918186625367689583304685437636079014314129056203678626605700767272691026912224674745090999929526640841185621305963114554628144894630325057071283167306109594071613675686034214884936878483828307528568963678862611273715084386126416237160855042669932271622872136784661MLM Index 3X 34669347003473134759347903482034851348813491234943349733500435034350653509635125351563518635217352473527835309353393537035400354313546235490355213555135582356123564335674357043573535765357963582735855358863591635947359773600836039360693610036130361613619236220362513628136312363423637336404364343646536495365263655736586366173664736678367083673936770368003683136861368923692336951369823701237043370733710437135371653719637226372573728837316373473737737408374383746937500375303756137591376223765337681377123774237773378033783437865378953792637956379873801838047380783810838139381693820038231382613829238322383533838438412384433847338504385343856538596386263865738687387183874938777388083883838869388993893038961389913902239052390833911439142391733920339234392643929539326393563938739417394483947939508395393956939600396303966139692397223975339783398143984539873399043993439965399954002640057400874011840148401794021040238402694029940330403604039140422404524048340513405444057540603406344066440695407254075640787408174084840878409094094040969410004103041061410914112241153411834121441244412754130641334413654139541426414564148741518415484157941609416404167141699417304176041791418214185241883419134194441974420054203642064420954212542156421864221742248422784230942339423704240142430424614249142522425524258342614110148884646900895103340591859474421072408712997243110940677971075865114262418660692781160092612677171142959157168208311013103426890634110783733289700331137038224450235111679226409959909121850894347440231242433353496411812252167585248812126896699822459641328653866929275813351606121318145134081055440927281296797928471894713619392434367088143576578138179231509218792763344715752141625393705159741476392170381624588692915244715961946131990337158166634405606991596268567466747615854045132050956160762782421028591674471548787969116334608788312481167136836594916961724103293485745617540016237536971184317397396999281833207803473638519081906293617161199528158418133362015627484786143521495947913924032218083936204276442354434329164940125568449301383946244569562533616392392098972026799324768457163719559259133315331014382621527584284674826443486642972855246776974677741692522251779160873425363596849993599255718459950524222543332082009850425755097037285197263905469237608912593318215612296269111264944554352772336103456553228413595450075206282512675271448142755300091516830227662953436071924283321999650090952858120804002444629274590427040774314817804441657153177213234675698932724829006272378344643433993104513357024175828066833541251801571748340849392335919133573122662643302134183224213506169350375186287367593498251493609266634218858110597834333267389762584413368122399944071733998101148189912334494512142795573371605936289772133754249508694474336728934548908533149571666931522831544831262756059321576109118041663364182590872654433313630471808207345352304220459553602010422381642353506087423034153511404375039457388026730482139434188411671450271744330063747749886421923848037816734253178733277496646190270333054864454404709212399464278353529314546427285481394055114540367249408701545841124640575002469076108389668847569518484822714849610768837257251060571175497652219113860765338492514839465369294843558030123659847601745376581057473128124445944394704277905596145950343427344960032520567863524614445442972190172910554497265868140495541039832423297543007691886491815371693301544380252432959673518953528883825581519765406434421783125752892673579868639554995535038222757554936841166908551543447906696125637801167088788657228607789353605575252875755654567950807540961575797433537416528573133681365925715511663633801610754124923718312337523635162123404735230715880167218252724277206795183511682380451475985133054437969212552622290028893799520491768101300335192278665029281450635738492353615078156340236386551021488843485043513646773187677665083519832107603248375870074608462508314598385507925268571318619042852184159214284254521628972131248554191254093339198585232375325283725845509247309335557767157307764609593111186249949546161219094094592654773180599687912503152135379287295149766029792115163411843563236063692083157713540857190831538127088974503174200586004758054979499215967270571947536747268892087788668714567833349511720355827928642302366600225106747576396402285420570113652974281025352986455580729791857567329116090210022649469842354643846346355313413052864342027491780147668002375855000886775240605615865267375078330068803658099901409815496233192816727965167131078552540018674691151011573536987953442583287466625072738788234713691521499241957238694169177803971793642853250548699884060217257537360129583255957972237039097739091728638025868266767966835670147050482209445615305849787895714812564137769813515439796780750502764271417809031126182080138078000781649011678968109588554389780000442351743847907302670362232982521940949887469774792464073246567541607708880763873188239184893966696953342110148546843727482284168568164592314229058669907460484101416670028005841815364726036177634292644162067518287266517983125485561662362591028781749627913830961134966319400177769446392149927453023662647807316842243621755084290590616389060372158093465128667668604236454503711708577364536047495606406623250136877504976370927279553024363244932772003528636143498551355266355779990150757647521485590334586922192146698701170714589328632549758205028463395178161839371290312886033501192088568816590408878332148698689561611674479293629886653179825347924837850757708360031927344283254956769909807824201775560706285394650126758993839434877515595628800987149600684889065832057726926918696888484690189495394480839779789087039133391421863001611292771298553107031643975291118372363297819930836093202313829167348572263920392620931197582674Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol3466934700347313475934790348203485134881349123494334973350043503435065350963512535156351863521735247352783530935339353703540035431354623549035521355513558235612356433567435704357353576535796358273585535886359163594735977360083603936069361003613036161361923622036251362813631236342363733640436434364653649536526365573658636617366473667836708367393677036800368313686136892369233695136982370123704337073371043713537165371963722637257372883731637347373773740837438374693750037530375613759137622376533768137712377423777337803378343786537895379263795637987380183804738078381083813938169382003823138261382923832238353383843841238443384733850438534385653859638626386573868738718387493877738808388383886938899389303896138991390223905239083391143914239173392033923439264392953932639356393873941739448394793950839539395693960039630396613969239722397533978339814398453987339904399343996539995400264005740087401184014840179402104023840269402994033040360403914042240452404834051340544405754060340634406644069540725407564078740817408484087840909409404096941000410304106141091411224115341183412144124441275413064133441365413954142641456414874151841548415794160941640416714169941730417604179141821418524188341913419444197442005420364206442095421254215642186422174224842278423094233942370424014243042461424914252242552425834261411018462101362837934799991085448004538323111929118787182351207652511407176612019125390204581117484546864171731138109225682759411830542971141973121282349239248191253561020678453113125047134317747138373303172500361331459748985528213803323105317908144737919185125151412776697511663614531058211188315137577152931888721415729437616425115318985323494783165982278309038621803231471549395617904050860922647176145960706541091733942085083835175478753683071291781330453112814217978309170999982178327747582607391891163979836075817798727619506824189722689263713871946922853862876201326619703110722104247709741140121084225371972662212855164715988862206722706401835322669441690595415238021656835493992409319476336215824715883382021251271921183062991962754716579502454626218979196217438257775040245115282671023723013445526347004714041855255795955077359592495813923487551426251544884444464257360170460037412686083540701638126872519870418432268999567132061262705837055829019925763194593147083265313757663309472813103200541033527419823254249551277010409615451362676529979786414226160056073535038263894797652999412548730262056363225800821930099183269664772640791342707517913393063628270088014648396313954310549318153084717264241954307157328397901933299419518611299136098849970540673374596302831080134120070774442652341385979728731753396520803376895345726418142448733666639557515736237492416134674511343543009042022533332642022114852532434638542450811315841698852292073039414153229354430189376200790483316853805490444573357411439819244935075011608249249360984302969547423856135399925536837040956933772726354401578979658723774972210786050840695295174214756416994515826385033964521149932298139713282327467319427164404503527264170307833354900940084206535718971410646261433761244217189272270611745540752200966779456751429607118284972013362131246351043335537376455539648008468581965376016632204691248114327415071871465643724717227545473136402847931445785433903947054319063502047815646472216278699063479607213661057945178227960527846352191618525558194503566656014366215072099607706301949091279752110903474678311307085914813726995314497449313263458100307501108068680081651265560301474542535683580046564785086503081795148954583264570743744560523185534007515884008061665413858330466678433295622111342960827866909373871666130868051874230552771652422845510701696432876208278608866200600401871004659472507041330465932874203479539697809804734914257004524104654454705380793625480346959025919015347688813432197833827357071618484301576055052128972793782966226803700147344207548094170970392760506973007753442576737939978018203711477063777852829118623665779019542537975168470879331063159292969340707904458913438647549674528465612369693250484829245469892748812978175263532882565884241246206833661953571965958747281414049210197798367540078193102939236528189951046893064884057110450275014424337105381618272956461035480834966252810098081586249346103444040903827289943765319962205110100628217884611012827363731696104489043958535041025208883265320710924810397674245105958862062210699973907685915891710079521394402054104113593977485571045082886122542310633415292259892107173767394075751033610606190315107818092913984761091714256162410911487792520462763107169501545471921136118889613764111388603444944021115574053252049810939037910685213114249390356399391083133347816519510328737942111374108260563452860941083193489388158411210933463883606105110348877333521050495950956824310526830835267162104791863989067431062821090868559510400777823450634102113172546186561060003146855022697107312284647369906353909062158296792111202812716948336196247350049135711396291183690494702807101941926996967356997999572105795140647295866841122666457979433169013834081008090404106009810012515188045546101181772608249919920326422666829806500597293140997560167322182769688378268213806910137938396615464102906867144372699764410705174233597071424363883869524017194325919595544845253305679622646217934274796239452751736962965375063369090821012347317827440610770514966463814109420569583346841208711039285353212664209478560323141025217416688541386837757319192514666752333325439139155359455648431403916156690523913166501323067976136168615008235161328539985817047137418197702979161294379107077740413338408429152194132004225939526151384230634300615614456614056202426138838285506816291402147282693308713284924859334293145344916066784191457470854495409713932867530051409140675983590670087030 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

Performance Stats

Performance stats (2)

Correlations

Annual Returns

Calendar Year Returns

MLM Index 3X1995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420150218999999999999970311015404060000000000000370000000000000007E-202110000000000000240000000000000001E-30151022600000000000001014599999999999999005-008-90000000000000011E-30379-96999999999999989E-299000000000000005E-2013400000000000001-017199999999999999-27999999999999997E-2025390999999999999998E-2Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015031303639999999999999901749999999999999902690000000000000252999999999999999E-297000000000000003E-2008013300000000000001031700573999999999999996E-2025011203439999999999999712E-271999999999999995E-2-72999999999999995E-2-01189999999999999901102310000000000000142000000000000003E-27030 Portfolio1995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420150265000000000000010145999999999999990218999999999999970196999999999999980182-55999999999999994E-2-88000000000000009E-2-0138000000000000010247011469000000000000006E-2015174999999999999997E-2-03070238999999999999990135000000000000012E-301350000000000000102280000000000000190999999999999998E-2-2E-3

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 19

The Credit Suisse MF Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLM 3x Index Correlations

bull Both MLM and Credit Suisse exhibit similar negative correlations with US equities

bull MLM and Credit Suisse indices are highly correlated with one another

Correlations ndash various periods ending 93016

SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM 7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099MLM Index 3X -054 -056 MLM Index 3X -023 -026

Credit Suisse Index -059 -055 080 Credit Suisse Index -021 -020 082

SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM 7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099MLM Index 3X -031 -033 MLM Index 3X -036 -036

Credit Suisse Index -027 -027 076 Credit Suisse Index -021 -021 066

1 Year Correlation 3 Year Correlation

10 Year Correlation5 Year Correlation

SampP 500 7030 MLM 7030 Portfolio 098MLM Index 3X -027 -026

Credit Suisse Index -018 -016 066

20 Year Correlation

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 20

Systematic Trend Following modeled with the MLM 3X IndexTM in the AL study Long history calculated back to pre-1970 PCA used data going back to 1970 Simple captures the beta captures big down markets reasonable for modeling However has only one lookback period (12 months) slow to respond to trends Investible but not inclusive of the full opportunity set (no equities)

Benchmark recommendation Credit Suisse Managed Futures Liquid IndexTM15 vol Diversified across 18 deep and liquid futures contracts in major markets Diversified across 16 lookback horizons from trading 30 days to 12 months Utilizes a moving average crossover method to determine the signal Equally risk weighted over 288 potentially different signals (long or short) Most comparable to the strategies that will be sourced

Recommended RISIC Mandate Benchmark

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 21

Due Diligence Plan Update Relating To STF and Platform Manager

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 22

Due Diligence Process Outline Platform Manager

bull Provide a short list of platform implementation platform managers

Draft DDQ prepared to be issued

bull Send DDQ to short list platform managers

bull Conduct a review of platform managers DDQ responses - rate proposals

PCA and Rhode Island investment staff

bull Conduct onsite due diligence at platform managers offices in NYC

PCA and Rhode Island investment staff

bull Platform manager recommendation

PCA memo to SIC SIC interview recommended platform manager

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 23

Due Diligence Process Outline STF Managers

bull Provide a short list of systematic trend following managers

bull Draft DDQ prepared to be issued

bull Send a DDQ to short list systematic trend following managers

bull Conduct a review of STF managers DDQ responses - rate proposals

bull PCA and Rhode Island investment staff

bull Systematic trend following managers recommendation

bull PCA memo to SIC

bull SIC interview recommended systematic trend following managers

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 24

Other Implementation Crisis Risk OffsetSM Class Managers

Other bull Platform manager to conduct operational due diligence at recommended STF

Managerrsquos office

bull STF Managers hired contracting other administration 1Q 2017

bull Fund long-duration Fixed Income and systematic trend following accounts pari passu

bull Primary source of funds ndash Equity HF portfolio redemptions

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 25

Appendix

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 26

Model Output Focus Portfolio Comparison of Trend IndicesFocus Portfolio

Line Strategic Class Trend

MLM 3x Index

TrendCS MF Index

1 US Equity 200 2002 Non-US Equity 200 2003 Private Growth 150 1504 Income Class 60 605 Crisis Risk Offset 80 806 Inflation Protection 100 1007 IG Fixed Income 115 1158 Absolute Return 65 659 Cash 30 30

10 Total 1000 1000

Asset Only Statistics11 Median Scenario Comp Return (22-year period) 73 7312 Average Scenario Standard Deviation (22-year period) 118 12113 Sharpe Ratio (22-year period) 041 04014 Sortino Ratio (22-year period) 074 074

15 Best Year Worst Year 298 -208

306 -210

16 Average 2-year Loss of Worst 10 -160 -164AssetLiability Statistics

17 Percent of Scenarios lt50 [during first 5-years] 75 7918 Median Funded Ratio [end of 5-years] 600 59919 Average Funded Ratio of Worst 10 [end of 5-years] 477 47620 Median Funded Ratio [end of 22-years] 994 99121 Average Funded Ratio of Worst 10 [end of 22-years] 671 66522 Median Avg Ann Employer Cntrbs Rate [during 22-yrs] 206 20623 Average of Yrs w Employer Cntrbs Rate gt30 [during 22-yrs] 44 47

bull For modeling purposes both indices have same volatility assumptions

bull Modeling the Focus Portfolio with the CS MF Index results in the same long-term return (line 11) and slightly higher risk (line 12)

bull Portfolio results are similar regardless of the trend following index used in modeling the total portfolio

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 27

Comparing Modeling of MLM 3x and CS MF IndexMLM 3x Index Credits Suisse MF Index

1970 1607 9491971 648 -5801972 278 12791973 9190 63231974 1458 51501975 -620 -20551976 851 14651977 374 15591978 -178 4531979 2107 31971980 -568 4861981 2839 18891982 1278 13801983 -1005 -11941984 1281 0881985 239 5561986 456 2281987 643 10851988 188 -10381989 809 0551990 657 3771991 -604 -7281992 -557 -12351993 481 14301994 549 -7851995 384 14781996 409 21071997 077 0061998 992 10741999 -564 -12982000 3782 0122001 043 0492002 -972 11652003 1191 39572004 992 0172005 456 1152006 -1329 24292007 -461 4192008 4324 42422009 -811 -3752010 1370 5092011 1740 -16162012 -1910 -22872013 -127 10762014 2995 28432015 1359 086

-4000

-2000

000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Annual Modeled Returns

$0

$500

$1000

$1500

$2000

$2500

Growth of $100

MLM 3x Credit Suisse Managed Futures

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 28

The Credit Suisse Managed Futures Indextrade is a systematic trend following strategy that trades a total of 18 futures contracts providing liquid and diversified exposure to market trends across asset classes geographies and time horizons The strategy tracks 16 time horizon signals to identify trends across various horizons ranging from shorter-term moving average (60 trading days) to longer-term moving average (360 trading days) The average length of moving average signal utilized is a 210 trading days moving average

bull Shortest signal compares the 60 (trading) day MA (moving average) versus 5 day MA

bull Longest signal compares the 360 (trading) day MA (moving average) versus 5 day MA

bull For each of the 18 different futures contracts (markets) total return index

- If average price in most recent 5 days is gt average price over 60 days =gt Buy the market (go long)

- If average price in most recent 5 days is lt average price over 60 days=gt Sell the market (go short)

bull Signals are equally weighted resulting in a portfolio of long and short exposures When signals align (strong trends) the index is more long or more short

Recommended Benchmark Index

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 29

The Credit Suisse Managed Futures Indextrade Markets Traded

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 30

bull Diversifies and balances risk across the four major futures market typesbull Rebalancing incorporates recent trailing volatility of each instrument traded

The Credit Suisse Managed Futures Indextrade Risk Allocation

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 31

Instruments Forwards

bull Agreement to buysell an asset at a future time for a specified price Long position = agree to buy at the future date Short position = agree to sell at the future date

bull Over-the-counter instrument (ie customized have counterparty risk)

bull Different than an option in that both buyer and seller have obligations

bull Essentially a contract that states Asset type and amount Future date of trade Future price of trade Settlement options (ie cash payment or delivery of asset)

bull Currency forwards can be more liquid than currency futures

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 32

Instruments Futures

bull Futures = analogous to forwards but exchange tradedstandardized Exchanges (eg CME Group) provide numerous services

o Guarantee contracts will be honored backed by exchange with is backed by all of the exchange members (de minimis counterparty risk)

o Facilitate transactionso Set margin requirementso Organize daily settlementmarking to marketo Arrange settlementdelivery procedures

bull Extremely liquid instruments

bull Vast majority of futures contracts do not lead to delivery

bull Regulated by the US Government Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 33

Futures Transaction Example

bull November crude oil contract (one contract = 1000 barrels of oil)

bull ldquoPricerdquo of contract = delivery price (ie futures are free) 1000 barrels $43 = $43000 of exposure (ie notional value)

o Longbuy position = agree to buy 1000 barrels in November $43barrelo Shortsell position = agree to sell 1000 barrels in November $43barrel

Initial margin = $3190 (ie money that must be deposited to trade)o Typically equal to roughly one-day maximum price fluctuationo Margin = embedded leverageo Exchanges require daily settlementmark to market

bull At contract expiration (or anytime while contract is traded) | longbuy ldquoSpotrdquo price = $50

o Gain = ($50-$43) x 1000 = $7000

ldquoSpotrdquo price = $40o Loss = ($40-$43) x 1000 = ($3000)

Gainslosses for shortsell positionare the opposite

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 34

Leverage in Trend Following Strategies

bull Futures contain embedded leverage

bull Trend Following strategies leverage asymp 0x-7x Averagefull-cycle leverage asymp 3x

bull Without leverage (ie 1x) strategy volatility may be asymp 6 (ie bond-like)

bull Leveragerisk oversight is key component of strategy selection

bull Leverage protections Futures have daily price limits and daily settlement

o Price limit = maximum change in contract priceo Exchanges will close out positions if failed settlement

Long and short positions partially offset leverage risks

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 35

CROSM Implementation Considerations (LongShort aspects)bull Long position ndash give up cash to buy a security (traditional)

bull Short position ndash sell an un-owned security receive cash liable for securityrsquos position

bull Because of the liability short positions require collateral as security collateral levels based on potential security movements not total value of positions

bull Minimum collateral requirements allow managers to apply leverage

bull Unlike typical leveraged situations collateral requirements re-set every day

bull Longshort portfolios contain many offsetting long and short positions itrsquos the net position that matters

bull Longshort portfolios utilize ldquoprimary brokersrdquo to effect these types of trades

bull In total across entire CROSM class hundreds of netted ls positions

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 36

DISCLOSURES This document is provided for informational purposes only It does not constitute an offer of securities of any of the issuers that may be described herein Informationcontained herein may have been provided by third parties including investment firms providing information on returns and assets under management and may not have beenindependently verified The past performance information contained in this report is not necessarily indicative of future results and there is no assurance that the investment in question willachieve comparable results or that the Firm will be able to implement its investment strategy or achieve its investment objectives The actual realized value of currently unrealizedinvestments (if any) will depend on a variety of factors including future operating results the value of the assets and market conditions at the time of disposition any related transactioncosts and the timing and manner of sale all of which may differ from the assumptions and circumstances on which any current unrealized valuations are based

Neither PCA nor PCArsquos officers employees or agents make any representation or warranty express or implied in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained inthis document or any oral information provided in connection herewith or any data subsequently generated herefrom and accept no responsibility obligation or liability (whether direct orindirect in contract tort or otherwise) in relation to any of such information PCA and PCArsquos officers employees and agents expressly disclaim any and all liability that may be based on thisdocument and any errors therein or omissions therefrom Neither PCA nor any of PCArsquos officers employees or agents make any representation of warranty express or implied that anytransaction has been or may be effected on the terms or in the manner stated in this document or as to the achievement or reasonableness of future projections management targetsestimates prospects or returns if any Any views or terms contained herein are preliminary only and are based on financial economic market and other conditions prevailing as of thedate of this document and are therefore subject to change

The information contained in this report may include forward-looking statements Forward-looking statements include a number of risks uncertainties and other factors beyond the control ofthe Firm which may result in material differences in actual results performance or other expectations The opinions estimates and analyses reflect PCArsquos current judgment which maychange in the future

Any tables graphs or charts relating to past performance included in this report are intended only to illustrate investment performance for the historical periods shown Such tables graphsand charts are not intended to predict future performance and should not be used as the basis for an investment decision

All trademarks or product names mentioned herein are the property of their respective owners Indices are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index The index dataprovided is on an ldquoas isrdquo basis In no event shall the index providers or its affiliates have any liability of any kind in connection with the index data or the portfolio described herein Copyingor redistributing the index data is strictly prohibited

The Russell indices are either registered trademarks or trade names of Frank Russell Company in the US andor other countries

The MSCI indices are trademarks and service marks of MSCI or its subsidiaries

Standard and Poorrsquos (SampP) is a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc SampP indices including the SampP 500 are a registered trademark of The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc

CBOE not SampP calculates and disseminates the BXM Index The CBOE has a business relationship with Standard amp Poors on the BXM CBOE and Chicago Board Options Exchange areregistered trademarks of the CBOE and SPX and CBOE SampP 500 BuyWrite Index BXM are servicemarks of the CBOE The methodology of the CBOE SampP 500 BuyWrite Index is owned by CBOEand may be covered by one or more patents or pending patent applications

The Barclays Capital indices (formerly known as the Lehman indices) are trademarks of Barclays Capital Inc

The Citigroup indices are trademarks of Citicorp or its affiliates

The Merrill Lynch indices are trademarks of Merrill Lynch amp Co or its affiliates

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MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15x 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol 7030 Portfolio
1995 0219 0228 0265 1995 0219 0313 0265
1996 0311 0264 0146 1996 0311 0364 0146
1997 0154 014 0219 1997 0154 0175 0219
1998 0406 0209 0197 1998 0406 0269 0197
1999 007 0066 0182 1999 007 0053 0182
2000 0211 0087 -0056 2000 0211 0097 -0056
2001 0004 007 -0088 2001 0004 008 -0088
2002 0151 0112 -0138 2002 0151 0133 -0138
2003 0226 0213 0247 2003 0226 0317 0247
2004 0146 0042 0114 2004 0146 005 0114
2005 005 0063 0069 2005 005 0074 0069
2006 -008 0188 0151 2006 -008 025 0151
2007 -0009 0095 0075 2007 -0009 0112 0075
2008 0379 023 -0307 2008 0379 0344 -0307
2009 -0097 0009 0239 2009 -0097 0012 0239
2010 0099 005 0135 2010 0099 0072 0135
2011 0134 -0048 0002 2011 0134 -0073 0002
2012 -0172 -008 0135 2012 -0172 -0119 0135
2013 -0028 0075 0228 2013 -0028 011 0228
2014 0253 0158 0091 2014 0253 0231 0091
2015 0091 0036 -0002 2015 0091 0042 -0002
Return 110 101 80 Return 110 131 80
StDev 153 93 146 StDev 153 134 146
Corr to 7030 -023 005 100 Corr to 7030 -023 004 100
1 Year Correlation 3 Year Correlation
SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM
7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099
MLM Index 3X -054 -056 MLM Index 3X -023 -026
Credit Suisse Index -059 -055 080 Credit Suisse Index -021 -020 082
5 Year Correlation 10 Year Correlation
SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM
7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099
MLM Index 3X -031 -033 MLM Index 3X -036 -036
Credit Suisse Index -027 -027 076 Credit Suisse Index -021 -021 066
20 Year Correlation
SampP 500 7030 MLM
7030 Portfolio 098
MLM Index 3X -027 -026
Credit Suisse Index -018 -016 066
Correlation to date Correlation to date
SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
SampP 500 Index 1 099 -054 -059 SampP 500 Index 1 099 -023 -021
7030 Portfolio 099 1 -056 -055 7030 Portfolio 099 1 -026 -02
MLM Index 3X -054 -056 1 08 MLM Index 3X -023 -026 1 082
Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -059 -055 08 1 Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -021 -02 082 1
Correlation to date Correlation to date
SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
5 5 5 5 10 Years 10 Years 10 Years 10 Years
SampP 500 Index 1 099 -031 -027 SampP 500 Index 1 099 -036 -021
7030 Portfolio 099 1 -033 -027 7030 Portfolio 099 1 -036 -021
MLM Index 3X -031 -033 1 076 MLM Index 3X -036 -036 1 066
Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -027 -027 076 1 Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -021 -021 066 1
Correlation to date
SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
5 5 5 5
SampP 500 Index 1 098 -027 -018
7030 Portfolio 098 1 -026 -016
MLM Index 3X -027 -026 1 066
Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -018 -016 066 1
MLM 3x Credit Suisse 15 Vol 7030 SampP 500
Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio
Periods Ending 9302016
1 Year 85 124 07 24 162 01 125 105 12 154 125 12
3 Years 139 145 10 130 156 08 79 90 09 112 108 10
5 Years 33 129 03 46 138 03 120 92 13 164 111 15 SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
10 Years 58 163 03 79 144 05 62 124 04 72 153 04 Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date
20 Years 98 141 05 117 147 06 71 121 04 79 154 04 Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g) Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g) Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g) Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g)
1 Year 1543 1246 122 1252 1052 116 846 1244 066 24 162 01
Statistical Measures 3 Years 1116 1083 102 792 897 087 1392 1446 095 130 156 08
Largest Drawdown - period Mar-09 - May-09 Mar-11 - Nov-12 Nov-07 - Feb-09 Nov-07 - Feb-09 5 Years 1637 1112 146 12 915 13 329 1288 025 46 138 03
Largest Drawdown - -2509 -277 -4216 -5095 10 Years 724 1525 041 621 1239 043 58 1627 03 79 144 05
Largest Drawdown - of months 3 21 16 16 20 Years 791 1535 036 711 1212 039 977 1408 053 117 147 06
Recovery Period Jun-09 - Jul-11 Dec-12 - Nov-14 Mar-09 - Apr-11 Mar-09 - Mar-12
Recovery Duration 26 24 26 37 00237 01617
01298 0156
Crisis Period Returns 00464 01383
LTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98) 121 143 -88 -100 00787 01439
Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02) 113 127 -145 -206 01172 01466
Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09) 326 277 -309 -388
MLM Credit Suisse 7030
Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio
Periods Ending 9302016
1 Year 85 124 07 14 90 01 125 105 12
3 Years 139 145 10 90 103 09 79 90 09
5 Years 33 129 03 35 92 04 120 92 13
10 Years 58 163 03 58 97 05 62 124 04
20 Years 98 141 05 91 100 07 71 121 04
Statistical Measures
Largest Drawdown - period Mar-09 - May-09 Mar-11 - Nov-12 Nov-07 - Feb-09
Largest Drawdown - -2509 -1486 -4216
Largest Drawdown - of months 3 21 16
Recovery Period Jun-09 - Jul-11 Dec-12 - Nov-14 Mar-09 - Apr-11
Recovery Duration 26 24 26
Full - history semi-deviation 83 54 83
Full - history skewness 03 02 -08
Full- history kurtosis 47 -01 15
Crisis Period Returns
LTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98) 121 104 -88
Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02) 113 157 -145
Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09) 326 183 -309
SampP 500 Index MLM Index 3X woInt Credit Suisse Index 7030 Portfolio
Return Return Return Return
Total Total Total Total
Jan-73 -149 NA NA NA
Feb-73 -352 NA NA NA
Mar-73 009 NA NA NA
Apr-73 -384 NA NA NA
May-73 -164 NA NA NA
Jun-73 -04 NA NA NA
Jul-73 406 NA NA NA
Aug-73 -342 NA NA NA
Sep-73 427 NA NA NA
Oct-73 013 NA NA NA
Nov-73 -1112 NA NA NA
Dec-73 196 NA NA NA
Jan-74 -071 NA NA NA
Feb-74 -005 NA NA NA
Mar-74 -202 NA NA NA
Apr-74 -359 NA NA NA
May-74 -302 NA NA NA
Jun-74 -112 NA NA NA
Jul-74 -742 NA NA NA
Aug-74 -864 NA NA NA
Sep-74 -115 NA NA NA
Oct-74 168 NA NA NA
Nov-74 -49 NA NA NA
Dec-74 -158 NA NA NA
Jan-75 1273 NA NA NA
Feb-75 639 NA NA NA
Mar-75 255 NA NA NA
Apr-75 509 NA NA NA
May-75 476 NA NA NA
Jun-75 477 NA NA NA
Jul-75 -644 NA NA NA
Aug-75 -176 NA NA NA
Sep-75 -311 NA NA NA
Oct-75 654 NA NA NA
Nov-75 281 NA NA NA
Dec-75 -082 NA NA NA
Jan-76 1217 NA NA NA
Feb-76 -084 NA NA NA
Mar-76 338 NA NA NA
Apr-76 -08 NA NA NA
May-76 -112 NA NA NA
Jun-76 441 NA NA NA
Jul-76 -05 NA NA NA
Aug-76 -02 NA NA NA
Sep-76 258 NA NA NA
Oct-76 -191 NA NA NA
Nov-76 -045 NA NA NA
Dec-76 558 NA NA NA
Jan-77 -473 NA NA NA
Feb-77 -182 NA NA NA
Mar-77 -104 NA NA NA
Apr-77 038 NA NA NA
May-77 -198 NA NA NA
Jun-77 493 NA NA NA
Jul-77 -124 NA NA NA
Aug-77 -172 NA NA NA
Sep-77 015 NA NA NA
Oct-77 -394 NA NA NA
Nov-77 312 NA NA NA
Dec-77 071 NA NA NA
Jan-78 -573 NA NA NA
Feb-78 -202 NA NA NA
Mar-78 297 NA NA NA
Apr-78 901 NA NA NA
May-78 086 NA NA NA
Jun-78 -132 NA NA NA
Jul-78 584 NA NA NA
Aug-78 302 NA NA NA
Sep-78 -031 NA NA NA
Oct-78 -874 NA NA NA
Nov-78 213 NA NA NA
Dec-78 194 NA NA NA
Jan-79 443 NA NA NA
Feb-79 -321 NA NA NA
Mar-79 598 NA NA NA
Apr-79 061 NA NA NA
May-79 -218 NA NA NA
Jun-79 434 NA NA NA
Jul-79 133 NA NA NA
Aug-79 576 NA NA NA
Sep-79 044 NA NA NA
Oct-79 -639 NA NA NA
Nov-79 472 NA NA NA
Dec-79 22 NA NA NA
Jan-80 621 NA NA NA
Feb-80 -001 NA NA NA
Mar-80 -975 NA NA NA
Apr-80 462 NA NA NA
May-80 515 NA NA NA
Jun-80 316 NA NA NA
Jul-80 696 NA NA NA
Aug-80 101 NA NA NA
Sep-80 294 NA NA NA
Oct-80 202 NA NA NA
Nov-80 1065 NA NA NA
Dec-80 -301 NA NA NA
Jan-81 -42 NA NA NA
Feb-81 172 NA NA NA
Mar-81 399 NA NA NA
Apr-81 -194 NA NA NA
May-81 025 NA NA NA
Jun-81 -062 NA NA NA
Jul-81 021 NA NA NA
Aug-81 -578 NA NA NA
Sep-81 -492 NA NA NA
Oct-81 54 NA NA NA
Nov-81 412 NA NA NA
Dec-81 -256 NA NA NA
Jan-82 -13 NA NA NA
Feb-82 -559 NA NA NA
Mar-82 -052 NA NA NA
Apr-82 452 NA NA NA
May-82 -341 NA NA NA
Jun-82 -15 NA NA NA
Jul-82 -177 NA NA NA
Aug-82 1214 NA NA NA
Sep-82 124 NA NA NA
Oct-82 1151 NA NA NA
Nov-82 404 NA NA NA
Dec-82 193 NA NA NA
Jan-83 372 NA NA NA
Feb-83 229 NA NA NA
Mar-83 369 NA NA NA
Apr-83 788 NA NA NA
May-83 -087 NA NA NA
Jun-83 389 NA NA NA
Jul-83 -295 NA NA NA
Aug-83 15 NA NA NA
Sep-83 138 NA NA NA
Oct-83 -116 NA NA NA
Nov-83 211 NA NA NA
Dec-83 -052 NA NA NA
Jan-84 -056 NA NA NA
Feb-84 -352 NA NA NA
Mar-84 173 NA NA NA
Apr-84 092 NA NA NA
May-84 -556 NA NA NA
Jun-84 214 NA NA NA
Jul-84 -124 NA NA NA
Aug-84 1104 NA NA NA
Sep-84 002 NA NA NA
Oct-84 038 NA NA NA
Nov-84 -112 NA NA NA
Dec-84 264 NA NA NA
Jan-85 779 NA NA NA
Feb-85 123 NA NA NA
Mar-85 006 NA NA NA
Apr-85 -009 NA NA NA
May-85 578 NA NA NA
Jun-85 157 NA NA NA
Jul-85 -014 NA NA NA
Aug-85 -086 NA NA NA
Sep-85 -313 NA NA NA
Oct-85 462 NA NA NA
Nov-85 686 NA NA NA
Dec-85 484 NA NA NA
Jan-86 056 NA NA NA
Feb-86 747 NA NA NA
Mar-86 558 NA NA NA
Apr-86 -113 NA NA NA
May-86 532 NA NA NA
Jun-86 169 NA NA NA
Jul-86 -559 NA NA NA
Aug-86 741 NA NA NA
Sep-86 -827 NA NA NA
Oct-86 577 NA NA NA
Nov-86 243 NA NA NA
Dec-86 -255 NA NA NA
Jan-87 1347 NA NA NA
Feb-87 395 NA NA NA
Mar-87 289 NA NA NA
Apr-87 -089 NA NA NA
May-87 087 NA NA NA
Jun-87 505 NA NA NA
Jul-87 507 NA NA NA
Aug-87 373 NA NA NA
Sep-87 -219 NA NA NA
Oct-87 -2153 NA NA NA
Nov-87 -824 NA NA NA
Dec-87 761 NA NA NA
Jan-88 421 NA NA 349
Feb-88 466 NA NA 436
Mar-88 -309 NA NA 036
Apr-88 11 NA NA 066
May-88 086 NA NA -09
Jun-88 458 NA NA 252
Jul-88 -038 NA NA 02
Aug-88 -34 NA NA -286
Sep-88 425 NA NA 359
Oct-88 282 NA NA 344
Nov-88 -143 NA NA 034
Dec-88 174 NA NA 116
Jan-89 731 NA NA 398
Feb-89 -248 NA NA -089
Mar-89 232 NA NA 07
Apr-89 52 NA NA 323
May-89 405 NA NA 14
Jun-89 -057 NA NA 004
Jul-89 903 NA NA 742
Aug-89 195 NA NA -04
Sep-89 -041 NA NA 113
Oct-89 -232 NA NA -171
Nov-89 204 NA NA 23
Dec-89 24 NA NA 194
Jan-90 -671 NA NA -478
Feb-90 13 NA NA -08
Mar-90 264 NA NA -117
Apr-90 -249 NA NA -177
May-90 975 NA NA 786
Jun-90 -067 NA NA -001
Jul-90 -032 NA NA 019
Aug-90 -904 NA NA -722
Sep-90 -487 NA NA -53
Oct-90 -043 NA NA 295
Nov-90 646 NA NA 26
Dec-90 279 NA NA 235
Jan-91 435 NA NA 348
Feb-91 715 NA NA 62
Mar-91 242 NA NA 049
Apr-91 024 NA NA 058
May-91 431 NA NA 257
Jun-91 -458 NA NA -379
Jul-91 466 NA NA 377
Aug-91 237 NA NA 166
Sep-91 -167 NA NA 095
Oct-91 134 NA NA 152
Nov-91 -403 NA NA -26
Dec-91 1144 NA NA 76
Jan-92 -186 -50186134107 NA -101
Feb-92 13 -11806985257 NA 03
Mar-92 -194 -34682100213 NA -245
Apr-92 294 04856690806 NA 135
May-92 049 36691977834 NA 196
Jun-92 -149 3995994645 NA -144
Jul-92 409 58382478439 NA 241
Aug-92 -205 21392596519 NA 003
Sep-92 118 -10417441781 NA 069
Oct-92 035 -11426309261 NA -063
Nov-92 34 -24243841368 NA 231
Dec-92 123 03309287484 NA 157
Jan-93 084 12125566229 NA 109
Feb-93 136 59842293696 NA 136
Mar-93 211 -06484088187 NA 282
Apr-93 -242 09183032136 NA 027
May-93 268 -00124707027 NA 196
Jun-93 029 75565231659 NA 064
Jul-93 -04 34694235802 NA 068
Aug-93 379 26998187389 NA 356
Sep-93 -077 -35544940483 NA -032
Oct-93 207 12906000348 NA 154
Nov-93 -095 39231376084 NA -251
Dec-93 121 23140907663 NA 262
Jan-94 34 -16392143954 NA 357
Feb-94 -271 -5375365439 NA -19
Mar-94 -436 -17526970615 NA -389
Apr-94 128 -31042584129 NA 106
May-94 164 21687630069 NA 058
Jun-94 -245 -02802505425 NA -136
Jul-94 328 -09170406074 NA 249
Aug-94 41 03148132864 NA 3
Sep-94 -245 49091708791 NA -203
Oct-94 225 33710507687 NA 14
Nov-94 -364 -02736669026 NA -3 SampP 500 Index MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol 7030 Portfolio
Dec-94 148 11635880505 NA 095 Dec-94 100 100 100 100
Jan-95 259 1488846469 18462 078 Jan-95 103 101 102 101
Feb-95 39 18245801927 -04746 274 Feb-95 107 103 101 104
Mar-95 295 37741988604 70854 257 Mar-95 110 107 109 106
Apr-95 294 20196669281 31179 254 Apr-95 113 109 112 109
May-95 4 4438151788 78944 291 May-95 117 114 121 112
Jun-95 232 15287989065 -04753 152 Jun-95 120 116 120 114
Jul-95 332 -14769041128 -2252 32 Jul-95 124 114 117 117
Aug-95 025 -36439459991 -31269 016 Aug-95 125 110 114 118
Sep-95 422 05926567612 39491 274 Sep-95 130 111 118 121
Oct-95 -036 2635846499 25163 -064 Oct-95 129 114 121 120
Nov-95 439 27162162082 33589 332 Nov-95 135 117 125 124
Dec-95 193 4331305919 47021 198 Dec-95 138 122 131 126
Jan-96 34 19634168588 54269 207 Jan-96 142 124 138 129
Feb-96 093 -13857157749 -37777 042 Feb-96 144 123 133 130
Mar-96 096 3570816298 36706 074 Mar-96 145 127 138 131
Apr-96 147 47035792726 48573 151 Apr-96 147 133 145 133
May-96 258 04897246276 -23907 119 May-96 151 134 141 134
Jun-96 038 04231657395 28546 021 Jun-96 151 134 145 134
Jul-96 -442 -32825387444 -5322 -362 Jul-96 145 130 138 130
Aug-96 211 50232432929 29044 183 Aug-96 148 136 142 132
Sep-96 563 54206924649 82056 405 Sep-96 156 144 153 137
Oct-96 276 51159466491 83507 144 Oct-96 160 151 166 139
Nov-96 756 43728165918 864 527 Nov-96 173 158 180 147
Dec-96 -198 14093703517 -07113 -113 Dec-96 169 160 179 145
Jan-97 625 17011191838 -16167 314 Jan-97 180 162 176 150
Feb-97 078 -17477703643 -15622 041 Feb-97 181 160 173 150
Mar-97 -411 -0910181567 12022 -309 Mar-97 174 158 175 145
Apr-97 597 09232176853 15126 349 Apr-97 184 160 178 151
May-97 609 -06805906276 09263 543 May-97 195 159 180 159
Jun-97 448 14017438969 -08095 375 Jun-97 204 161 178 165
Jul-97 796 41579104051 60499 584 Jul-97 220 167 189 174
Aug-97 -56 -24491709033 -58848 -401 Aug-97 208 163 178 167
Sep-97 548 23206853381 65934 476 Sep-97 219 167 190 175
Oct-97 -334 3155194786 26194 -317 Oct-97 212 172 195 170
Nov-97 463 1734137994 34076 24 Nov-97 222 175 201 174
Dec-97 172 50839377232 45191 168 Dec-97 226 184 210 177
Jan-98 111 -0540706989 01984 101 Jan-98 228 183 211 178
Feb-98 721 40902523842 09547 561 Feb-98 245 191 213 189
Mar-98 512 4564059454 36725 385 Mar-98 257 200 221 196
Apr-98 101 10197007162 2729 086 Apr-98 260 202 227 197
May-98 -172 66464318242 49967 -174 May-98 255 215 238 194
Jun-98 406 14535097859 12227 237 Jun-98 266 218 241 199
Jul-98 -106 79600070571 25845 -106 143 Jul-98 263 235 247 197
Aug-98 -1446 85969949752 100188 -1191 Aug-98 225 256 272 173
Sep-98 641 -43471273323 13057 462 Sep-98 239 245 275 181
Oct-98 813 -21914686666 -48215 62 Oct-98 259 239 262 192
Nov-98 606 35427775078 -16838 49 Nov-98 274 248 258 202
Dec-98 576 46223079694 36184 48 Dec-98 290 259 267 211
Jan-99 418 11652083769 -13599 243 Jan-99 302 262 263 217
Feb-99 -311 08705260303 -29127 -306 Feb-99 293 264 256 210
Mar-99 4 -66775958823 -24295 326 Mar-99 305 247 250 217
Apr-99 387 22077437514 51823 383 Apr-99 316 252 263 225
May-99 -236 05593377297 -19638 -207 May-99 309 254 257 220
Jun-99 555 0821055256 43706 406 Jun-99 326 256 269 229
Jul-99 -312 -05417097185 00435 -19 Jul-99 316 254 269 225
Aug-99 -049 12651757883 01021 -075 Aug-99 314 258 269 223
Sep-99 -274 24672781685 05889 -147 Sep-99 306 264 271 220
Oct-99 633 -17330628613 -47866 486 Oct-99 325 259 258 231
Nov-99 203 37710155755 29817 248 Nov-99 332 269 265 236
Dec-99 589 30182108515 60293 568 Dec-99 351 277 281 250
Jan-00 -502 24897212667 -25282 -359 Jan-00 334 284 274 241
Feb-00 -189 -05713037029 10256 122 Feb-00 327 283 277 244
Mar-00 978 -24716293218 -3378 621 Mar-00 359 276 268 259
Apr-00 -301 03990582414 -22613 -331 1573 Apr-00 348 277 262 250
May-00 -205 24192880579 0877 -232 May-00 341 283 264 245
Jun-00 247 0878887186 -34187 3 Jun-00 350 286 255 252
Jul-00 -156 24260079771 12301 -165 Jul-00 344 293 258 248
Aug-00 621 75396102385 45179 559 Aug-00 366 315 270 262
Sep-00 -528 09222855204 04031 -385 Sep-00 346 318 271 252
Oct-00 -042 299852918 44133 -131 Oct-00 345 327 283 248
Nov-00 -788 5315579778 110553 -68 Nov-00 318 345 314 231
Dec-00 049 -25942802121 -17463 193 Dec-00 319 336 308 236
1-Jan 355 -00863561154 -04261 284 Jan-01 331 335 307 243
1-Feb -912 16209515233 74179 -716 Feb-01 300 341 330 225
1-Mar -633 48299554873 94097 -52 Mar-01 281 357 361 213
1-Apr 777 -43323517245 -65179 61 Apr-01 303 342 337 227
1-May 067 24991627761 11086 031 May-01 305 350 341 227
1-Jun -243 -01569851257 00543 -165 Jun-01 298 350 341 223
1-Jul -098 -21829671963 -05079 -093 Jul-01 295 342 340 221
1-Aug -626 -26070979092 17884 -404 Aug-01 276 333 346 212
1-Sep -808 10636654952 60561 -685 Sep-01 254 337 367 198
1-Oct 191 09408124501 22528 233 Oct-01 259 340 375 203
1-Nov 767 -16137664028 -837 519 Nov-01 279 334 344 213
1-Dec 088 07970479005 -2992 094 Dec-01 281 337 333 215
2-Jan -146 01132698972 -26759 -115 Jan-02 277 338 324 213
2-Feb -193 -02410246265 -26221 -106 Feb-02 272 337 316 210
2-Mar 376 -64656658879 -37678 312 Mar-02 282 315 304 217
2-Apr -606 01559405489 -06737 -3 Apr-02 265 315 302 210
2-May -074 19425675286 49554 -043 May-02 263 322 317 209
2-Jun -712 46154392532 59609 -498 Jun-02 244 336 336 199
2-Jul -78 -09755577412 44704 -592 Jul-02 225 333 351 187
2-Aug 066 36669673432 29178 074 Aug-02 227 345 361 189
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2-Oct 88 -18586716944 -39428 521 Oct-02 220 354 370 184
2-Nov 589 -06691963741 -43217 423 Nov-02 233 351 354 192
2-Dec -587 10504712371 65168 -333 Dec-02 219 388 377 185
3-Jan -262 79413180181 78029 -186 Jan-03 213 419 407 182
3-Feb -15 5839796145 24675 -082 Feb-03 210 443 417 180
3-Mar 097 -4822187841 -49263 039 Mar-03 212 422 396 181
3-Apr 824 08044165566 01717 619 Apr-03 230 425 397 192
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3-Jun 128 -16232843116 -23723 11 Jun-03 245 454 417 204
3-Jul 176 -58470688666 -38819 084 Jul-03 249 428 401 206
3-Aug 195 -01285241001 24459 191 Aug-03 254 427 411 210
3-Sep -106 62607424571 26964 031 Sep-03 251 454 422 210
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3-Nov 088 23264834944 02951 12 Nov-03 268 469 457 222
3-Dec 524 14110879536 8856 41 Dec-03 282 476 497 231
4-Jan 184 19478633231 26613 172 Jan-04 287 485 510 235
4-Feb 139 52879779623 57235 144 Feb-04 291 511 540 239
4-Mar -151 2268957551 -03792 -05 Mar-04 287 522 538 237
4-Apr -157 -56830338449 -105019 -233 Apr-04 282 493 481 232
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4-Oct 153 34033420009 3203 17 Oct-04 291 521 480 241
4-Nov 405 45583596598 79681 368 Nov-04 302 544 518 250
4-Dec 34 01240939032 07905 307 Dec-04 313 545 522 257
5-Jan -244 16755564551 -35158 -181 Jan-05 305 554 504 253
5-Feb 21 -20025648058 07235 196 Feb-05 311 543 507 258
5-Mar -177 -10751895082 -32131 -158 Mar-05 306 537 491 254
5-Apr -19 -2390258099 -3307 -143 Apr-05 300 524 475 250
5-May 318 08685813036 14103 272 May-05 310 529 481 257
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5-Jul 372 -21671781188 16173 293 Jul-05 322 529 501 267
5-Aug -091 49286219575 23044 002 Aug-05 319 555 513 267
5-Sep 081 37034231946 44919 108 Sep-05 321 576 536 270
5-Oct -167 -41709576663 -50465 -191 Oct-05 316 552 509 264
5-Nov 378 22186228209 731 307 Nov-05 328 564 546 272
5-Dec 003 15087373486 26914 097 Dec-05 328 572 561 275
6-Jan 265 05184116785 49735 32 Jan-06 337 575 588 284
6-Feb 027 -12693666599 -08661 013 Feb-06 338 568 583 284
6-Mar 125 20763323239 66529 136 Mar-06 342 580 622 288
6-Apr 134 -11401031738 110633 149 Apr-06 346 573 691 292
6-May -288 -38328436628 -15079 -283 May-06 336 551 681 284
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6-Jul 062 -32543371611 -14002 038 Jul-06 339 524 643 286
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6-Sep 258 07974403785 -03827 16 Sep-06 356 527 659 297
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6-Nov 19 03172013357 58364 222 Nov-06 375 513 698 313
6-Dec 14 25165243518 03787 117 Dec-06 380 526 700 317
7-Jan 151 -10891073316 07036 127 Jan-07 386 520 705 321
7-Feb -196 -0242828355 -13437 -066 Feb-07 378 519 696 318
7-Mar 112 -24787732727 -10187 115 Mar-07 382 506 689 322
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7-Dec -069 -00407441673 00631 -06 Dec-07 401 522 779 340
8-Jan -6 38885050267 87377 -527 Jan-08 377 542 847 322
8-Feb -325 79938792923 97517 -138 Feb-08 364 585 930 318
8-Mar -043 -01164410281 -17484 -069 Mar-08 363 585 913 316
8-Apr 487 -11768609649 -73215 412 Apr-08 381 578 847 329
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8-Nov -718 91409930423 52566 -464 Nov-08 250 692 1029 229
8-Dec 106 39012647249 17001 298 Dec-08 252 719 1047 236
9-Jan -843 36085657209 -01782 -629 Jan-09 231 745 1045 221
9-Feb -1065 17480110926 0841 -723 Feb-09 207 758 1054 205
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9-Jun 02 26344903362 -3873 018 Jun-09 260 583 994 248
9-Jul 756 29911557926 15775 638 Jul-09 280 600 1010 264
9-Aug 361 66647387555 02737 292 Aug-09 290 640 1013 271
9-Sep 373 19908108013 31657 353 Sep-09 301 653 1045 281
9-Oct -186 -1135758063 -18836 -156 Oct-09 295 646 1025 276
9-Nov 6 429598654 65618 406 Nov-09 313 673 1092 288
9-Dec 193 -3538041182 -30108 161 Dec-09 319 649 1060 292
10-Jan -36 -22840646395 -587 -256 Jan-10 308 635 997 285
10-Feb 31 13842186803 10589 206 Feb-10 317 643 1008 291
10-Mar 603 38205356429 32922 477 Mar-10 336 668 1041 304
10-Apr 158 14253968325 03791 14 Apr-10 342 678 1045 309
10-May -799 -05569215148 17471 -621 May-10 314 674 1063 290
10-Jun -523 -23229482293 07896 -318 Jun-10 298 658 1072 280
10-Jul 701 -52850060701 -35575 569 Jul-10 319 623 1034 296
10-Aug -451 76993453056 43121 -284 Aug-10 305 671 1078 288
10-Sep 892 05035470246 12552 702 Sep-10 332 675 1092 308
10-Oct 38 35726262618 52271 293 Oct-10 344 699 1149 317
10-Nov 001 -46572458071 -67101 -044 Nov-10 344 666 1072 316
10-Dec 668 71205616987 60114 502 Dec-10 367 714 1136 332
11-Jan 237 14260916813 02413 151 Jan-11 376 724 1139 337
11-Feb 343 -08196213636 14822 271 Feb-11 389 718 1156 346
11-Mar 004 -25144800567 -53504 026 Mar-11 389 700 1094 347
11-Apr 296 51621261523 44419 292 Apr-11 401 736 1142 357
11-May -113 -18535770592 -51957 -088 May-11 396 722 1083 354
11-Jun -167 08676483656 -46402 -14 Jun-11 389 729 1033 349
11-Jul -203 93387304437 48149 -126 Jul-11 382 797 1083 344
11-Aug -543 3189583693 00543 -469 Aug-11 361 822 1083 328
11-Sep -703 -41599527992 34989 -619 Sep-11 335 788 1121 308
11-Oct 1093 -13852548076 -6243 834 Oct-11 372 777 1051 333
11-Nov -022 39284953285 -00578 -096 Nov-11 371 808 1050 330
11-Dec 102 01889893545 02082 061 Dec-11 375 809 1053 332
12-Jan 448 -01521632453 -04526 426 Jan-12 392 808 1048 346
12-Feb 432 -22430032837 14221 342 Feb-12 409 790 1063 358
12-Mar 329 -12258940456 -21399 158 Mar-12 422 780 1040 364
12-Apr -063 13756177692 -18216 -038 Apr-12 420 791 1021 363
12-May -601 43616823461 38067 -528 May-12 394 825 1060 343
12-Jun 412 -61107318666 -83896 324 Jun-12 411 775 971 355
12-Jul 139 -2662867044 20145 115 Jul-12 416 754 991 359
12-Aug 225 -29540623033 -22929 186 Aug-12 426 732 968 365
12-Sep 258 -47724948882 -20234 22 Sep-12 437 697 948 373
12-Oct -185 -18050840884 -36659 -098 Oct-12 429 684 914 370
12-Nov 058 -03984415062 -0944 079 Nov-12 431 682 905 373
12-Dec 091 -17220762656 24366 124 Dec-12 435 670 927 377
13-Jan 518 -04335912154 32593 387 Jan-13 458 667 957 392
13-Feb 136 -29598734504 01523 08 Feb-13 464 647 959 395
13-Mar 375 -04786782014 2166 255 Mar-13 481 644 979 405
13-Apr 193 11854540053 29259 181 Apr-13 490 652 1008 412
13-May 234 -43222576245 -06784 082 May-13 502 624 1001 416
13-Jun -134 06875789801 10553 -177 Jun-13 495 628 1012 408
13-Jul 509 06412005306 -19554 423 Jul-13 520 632 992 426
13-Aug -29 11512128942 -11474 -214 Aug-13 505 639 981 417
13-Sep 314 -19925877399 -05148 361 Sep-13 521 626 976 432
13-Oct 46 -07538953205 -06933 349 Oct-13 545 622 969 447
13-Nov 305 27584740935 46402 189 Nov-13 562 639 1014 455
13-Dec 253 19377872096 15067 18 Dec-13 576 651 1029 463
14-Jan -346 -08961192857 -51141 -251 Jan-14 556 645 976 452
14-Feb 457 -00139276726 -05865 399 Feb-14 581 645 971 470
14-Mar 084 -34260446582 -18865 037 Mar-14 586 623 952 471
14-Apr 074 22210329784 03199 043 Apr-14 591 637 955 473
14-May 235 -07288421342 07134 197 May-14 605 632 962 483
14-Jun 207 05841054246 00135 195 Jun-14 617 636 962 492
14-Jul -138 -00888949644 03097 -153 Jul-14 609 636 965 485
14-Aug 4 18791535569 48657 313 Aug-14 633 648 1012 500
14-Sep -14 69028951277 63915 -221 Sep-14 624 692 1077 489
14-Oct 244 21563513841 15927 194 Oct-14 639 707 1094 498
14-Nov 269 72204527611 104647 19 Nov-14 657 758 1209 508 LTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98)
14-Dec -025 76468641712 47745 -044 Dec-14 655 816 1266 506 Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02)
15-Jan -3 54094515689 113573 -159 Jan-15 635 860 1410 497 Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09)
15-Feb 575 -50846010492 -16603 45 Feb-15 672 817 1387 520
15-Mar -158 65245129876 57568 -083 Mar-15 661 870 1467 516
15-Apr 096 -88441663253 -51219 09 Apr-15 667 793 1392 520
15-May 129 40875447394 08884 073 May-15 676 825 1404 524
15-Jun -194 -66047202646 -62159 -171 Jun-15 663 771 1317 515
15-Jul 21 80060563143 34205 126 Jul-15 677 833 1362 522
15-Aug -603 -10026780942 -24342 -522 Aug-15 636 824 1329 494
15-Sep -247 36089130828 34355 -247 Sep-15 620 854 1374 482
15-Oct 844 -16993598229 -58073 637 Oct-15 673 839 1294 513
15-Nov 03 48441920313 30487 01 Nov-15 675 880 1334 513
15-Dec -158 11998205926 -10345 -173 Dec-15 664 891 1320 504
16-Jan -496 31480723033 48626 -453 Jan-16 631 919 1384 482
16-Feb -013 33572073647 44379 -002 Feb-16 630 950 1446 481
16-Mar 678 -61786855584 -39621 601 Mar-16 673 891 1388 510
16-Apr 039 -31282642584 09914 082 Apr-16 676 863 1402 515
16-May 18 -08911812015 -5253 107 May-16 688 855 1328 520
16-Jun 026 65324823204 94059 03 Jun-16 690 911 1453 522
16-Jul 369 21567955023 02767 348 Jul-16 715 931 1457 540
16-Aug 014 -15149 -44038 024 Aug-16 716 917 1393 541
16-Sep 002 10335 0967 025 Sep-16 716 926 1407 542
-41363
Correllation 100 -022 -015 097
skew -04 02 01 -08
Kurt 198 469 -028 186

1Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following

Table of Contents

Section Tab

Brief Background amp Review of CROSM class management 1

Systematic Trend Following Strategy amp Benchmark Review 2

Due Diligence Plan Update Relating To STF and Platform 3Manager

Appendix

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 2

Background amp Review Crisis Risk OffsetSM (CROSM) Class

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 3

Background

bull At its September 28 2016 meeting the RISIC approved a 8 allocation to a CROSM class

bull CROSM rationale produce appreciation during a growth crisis

bull Key features of the CROSM class In aggregate high-confidence of negative conditional crisis correlation Relatively high volatility must be gt= to the volatility of the Total Portfolio Responsive and complementary strategies

Duration first responder during a flight-to-quality a crisis Systematic trend following (STF) performs well when crisis is confirmed

Because of low cross-correlations individual components must exhibit higher isolated volatilities than the CRO portfolio volatility target

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 4

CROSM Implementation Considerations

bull All underlying strategiescomponent portfolios will have high liquiditymarketability

bull All-in costs will be reasonable (likely in the 40bp ndash 100bp range)

bull Given highly-volatile components there should be continual oversight

bull The systematic trend following strategy component will bull employ long and short positionsbull will use derivatives leverage to establish volatility levels

bull Managers are not seeking ldquoalphardquo they are seeking risk capturebull Duration managers capturing interest rate riskbull STF managers capturing trendmomentum risks across dozens of markets

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 5

CROSM Implementation Considerations (Platform Manager)

bull Act as fiduciary to the plan

bull Key role gathering and accounting for all long-short positions across all component managers

bull Reconciling manager position data with primary broker position data

bull Provide account administrative functions very similar to RISIC custodian function

bull Netting all positions and providing risk analyticscharacteristics of aggregate portfolio

bull Monitoring and managing risk levels per client directionguidelinesbull Re-setting manager account levels (ie rebalancing among managers)bull Directing managers to adjust collateral levels

bull Provide best-practices user-interfaces to asset-owners such as RISIC

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 6

CROSM Class Management Diagram

bull Within this construct the asset-owner (ie RISIC)bull Searches for and selects platform managerbull Searches for and selects component managers (funds)bull Determines level of guideline authority to assign to platform manager

PlatformManager

RIA and Fiduciary

BrokersTrade Execution Admin - NAV Calculations

SubscriptionsRedemptions

Trade Reconciliation

(vetted by platform manager)

PlatformManager

Client CustodianCash Safekeeping

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 7

Systematic Trend Following Benchmark Review

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 8

bull Momentum and Trend Following are somewhat interchangeable terms

bull That which has done well recently will continue to do well

bull That which has done poorly recently will continue to do poorly

bull Buy what is going up sell what is going down

Ex if SampP 500 has a positive 1-year return buygo long Ex if oil has a negative 1-year return sellshort

bull This results in a volatile yet low correlation return vs risky assets (eg equities) over a full market cycle

Often a positive correlation during strong (extended) bull markets and a negative correlation during major bear markets

Description ndash What is Systematic Trend Following

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 9

bull Trend horizon or lookback period = the length of time that the signal is ldquolooking backrdquo to see if the total return index is higher (lower) today than 30 days 3 months 1 year ago etc

bull Moving average (MA) crossover is a methodology to identify a trend - if short term MA is above longer term MA = Uptrend (buy market)- if short term MA is below longer term MA = Downtrend (sell market)

bull The trend horizon of a moving average is half of its moving average ndash this makes sense

Trend Following Terminology

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Example The average lookback of an equally weighted moving average is total days in the moving average divided by two

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 10

bull Manage long and short positions according to systematic signals

bull Implemented in futures and forwards (currency) markets (see Appendix)

bull Investable universe includes liquid markets across the globe Equities = typically broad indices such as SampP 500 Nikkei 225 etc Fixed Income = typically sovereign bondsrates such as US 10-year Treasury Currencies = typically major currencies such as JPY GBP EUR AUD CAD CHF Commodities = energy metals and agriculture components

bull Strategy implementation volatility is customizable (range anywhere from roughly 5-30 (capable of offsetting equity asymp 18-20)

bull Systematic = rules-based implementation

bull Related terms = managed futures CTAs (commodity trading advisors)

How do systematic trend following managers invest

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 11

Basic Trend Following Example

bull Single Asset Example 21 day average price gt 252 day average price = long position 21 day average price lt 252 day average price = short position

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 12

bull The RISICrsquos Trend Following allocation and corresponding managers should be compiled based on assessing the following criteria

Trend Horizons Short asymp lt1 month Medium asymp 1-11 months Long asymp12+ months

Systematic implementation = quantitatively-oriented firmso Graduate (PhD Masters) backgrounds in mathematics physics computer scienceo Straight forward strategy design (ie humility)

Focus on global futures markets (ie utilize forwards on limited basis)

Strong focus on risk management and diversification

Target gt15 annual standard deviationo Required in order to meaningfully impact portfolio

RISIC Mandate ndash Trend Following Allocation

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 13

Why medium-term trends

o Trend Horizons Short asymp lt1 month | Medium asymp 1-11 months | Long asymp12+ months

o Medium to long-term trends provide most robust return patterns - whyo Short term trends are too short (risk getting whipsawed in choppy markets)o Long term trends are too long (longer time to turn lower hit ratios)

o The average of all trend horizons traded is the horizon of the strategy

Using a larger number of moving average signals reduces the dependency on individual data points and leads to an increased robustness of the strategy vs more concentrated strategies shorter drawdown periods

What length of trend is best How many

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 14

bull Benchmarking Trend Following strategies is imperfectbull Primarily due to different volatility targets markets traded and trend horizons (lookback)

bull Benchmark characteristicsbull Construction based on consistently applied tradingrisk-management rulesbull Inclusive of markets traded by managers (rates currency commodities equities)bull Broad scalable investible published available at low cost as a simple option bull Comparable to the strategies run by managers that will be sourced

bull Institutional investors track several major benchmarks bull MLM 3X IndexTM (Investable rules-based)bull Credit Suisse Managed Futures Liquid IndexTM 15 Target Volatility (Investable rules-based)bull Societe Generale Trend IndexTM (Uninvestable 10 largest trend managers)

Trend Following Benchmarks

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 15

Investable Trend Following Benchmark Comparisons

Source Mount Lucas Management Credit Suisse

Several distinctions between indices can produce different performance behaviors

Selected Investable STF Benchmark Characteristics

MLM Index 3X trade (with interest on cash)

Credit Suisse Managed Futures Liquid Indextrade

15 Target VolBasic trend signal Time-series momentum Moving Average Crossover

of look-back periods utilized 1 16Range of look-back periods only 12-months 1-month to 9-months

Average look-back period 12-months 5 monthsMarkets traded

Number of markets 22 31

Major market segmentsFixed Income (5)

Currencies (6) Commodities (11)

Fixed Income (4) Currencies (5)

Commodities (17) (in 4 aggregated contracts)

Equities (5)Contracts traded 22 18Trading Frequency Monthly Daily

Volatility Framework

Leveraged to set volatility at 3-times non-levered index volatility Volatility is not

bounded but results from construction

Leveraged to target volatility at an expected forward-looking standard deviation of 15

(within a range of variation)SampP 500

1995-2016 Volatility

Index Volatility 1995-2016 141 147 149Inclusion of return on cash Yes YesYear of Inception Index 1970 1995

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 16

The Credit Suisse MF Liquid Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLMtrade 3x Index

Several years where indices diverge particularly in more recent calendar years but both provided major offset in severe down markets-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Annu

al R

etur

ns -

Calendar Year Returns

MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol 7030 Portfolio

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 17

The Credit Suisse MF Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLM 3x Index

CSMF IndexTM

15 volhas produced a similar but more consistent return pattern versus MLM 3X IndexTM

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

Growth of $1 ndash Index Comparisons

MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol

SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio

Returns to systematic trend following are episodic with long periods of little going on

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 18

The Credit Suisse MF Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLM 3x Index

Comparative Performance Statistics

MLM 3x and Credit Suisse 15 Vol exhibit similar statistical characteristics

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Periods Ending 93020161 Year 85 124 07 24 162 01 125 105 12 154 125 12

3 Years 139 145 10 130 156 08 79 90 09 112 108 105 Years 33 129 03 46 138 03 120 92 13 164 111 15

10 Years 58 163 03 79 144 05 62 124 04 72 153 0420 Years 98 141 05 117 147 06 71 121 04 79 154 04

Statistical MeasuresLargest Drawdown - period

Largest Drawdown - -5095Largest Drawdown - of months 16

Recovery PeriodRecovery Duration 37

Crisis Period ReturnsLTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98) -100

Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02) -206Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09) -388

SampP 500

Nov-07 - Feb-09

Mar-09 - Mar-12

113 127 -145

Jun-09 - Jul-11 Dec-12 - Nov-14 Mar-09 - Apr-1126 24

326 277 -309

121 143 -88

26

-2509 -277 -42163 21 16

MLM 3x Credit Suisse 15 Vol 7030

Mar-09 - May-09 Mar-11 - Nov-12 Nov-07 - Feb-09

Data

Growth of $1 - Selected Indices

SampP 500 Index3466934700347313475934790348203485134881349123494334973350043503435065350963512535156351863521735247352783530935339353703540035431354623549035521355513558235612356433567435704357353576535796358273585535886359163594735977360083603936069361003613036161361923622036251362813631236342363733640436434364653649536526365573658636617366473667836708367393677036800368313686136892369233695136982370123704337073371043713537165371963722637257372883731637347373773740837438374693750037530375613759137622376533768137712377423777337803378343786537895379263795637987380183804738078381083813938169382003823138261382923832238353383843841238443384733850438534385653859638626386573868738718387493877738808388383886938899389303896138991390223905239083391143914239173392033923439264392953932639356393873941739448394793950839539395693960039630396613969239722397533978339814398453987339904399343996539995400264005740087401184014840179402104023840269402994033040360403914042240452404834051340544405754060340634406644069540725407564078740817408484087840909409404096941000410304106141091411224115341183412144124441275413064133441365413954142641456414874151841548415794160941640416714169941730417604179141821418524188341913419444197442005420364206442095421254215642186422174224842278423094233942370424014243042461424914252242552425834261411025910659101109735444795000011129616668719730211748013354685194120205672645138931241965009769575412450699222939992129761187301480581292940470271952513497005569168912137574977766538731422525270106010514357547551179966144953800076712951470846209378406315087940415803691151452745893837461447585345253298514781293960381431561348081035090416044412880716591725737049449876516915674558707691797290421862691918113092871532211736864475451223718405552846356619195264510146997352040123602015828222025174407362882207917646405505612193115334285272921198652821201449221801504468230752256164903450843522812083338791482244568345475183512570902447635128825968685623562435255220242308371642655821841460915226276701299414293224770902915189862391787177920535525862394754854749274296558769989482900960405551408930222205505034578292822949138280023045358671038112431632140516072873308856219998935533259977402088765131582661071435956314279060321859173056678140690402232501658669961042331614423409612513511465129484386633351895799842701327215449692256753592171206721594134840468533992741341262389290458933496915703059332534423638180916072365613461119509613463090703723995334485457227683547317680031981420853192366641381297733056956571503342300421621321822428140493269215101303270095962331173053020056052787829788316686907052949639118337536127649917095296064254158037939961412590124564646146627887871187545059281332844539954552772253850096712227187493507898459282097432637954442650023282200944263041310991265712443127696486875822525637361608997226743065681956152020960944423275221988055075325237232831515192618932191643052508121921342220045324092102208674464422621226000986067275229750234673192224185807204046941244953855362587424926504321696896254125711559699925143197901716707265663029029538712680008636849986528204410894209262872337205466271291226269262225212868287525963656228232554118060267286193401094776962917455530760156628208877526919953283217130370276322862758753782752629065589627156293024274600705612312709993712960313050798698663641131148654713355772305973235249293743001597437795571630970482363174709310138410384831563216755592511472831874831166196183321330172986423731596395909755043279073967514378332800576897046323336697921848180483376070062371705534182709381513519346407576872258013364310386583369433690204211245862338990834773555873470588166411665135601293411050863367618955762511183746037159219988637984816794490683385583875280874937802643132536975382260327356213913991944598580941941312634650714166406268449155123173936741272313143239957923913978401414523502683611964211144263762814340351184335375292400727611634612043766839549365352836444172640109791362874626977573238054662131138102385493727388428953529966061695843935003143467775993551068904805874132346686653876708269156779646908124983132286826009252479534890663612311955100993806420657318827379658224668999566581152461698228251029425993071592102619260450577352868252801406410007451229025371814087202301080181827526562954800904455345831320889587226666319253827562601433077606897703477631730127115322853364345378037681734175020350106773314444362241332432979989220961107431888864653504814304506768576317473316687723333249734427218568199134344306612900559553673062946423169376011453825339853889086466915490138906421015022561400580510770672323960539509989637438943985001728101381534221061930223608169128582674335451483884331213721163310728886371297675144528233750849114310024239188871546311134088183079711177142226843030336747419608139192456253943896900269896410638545256101574163464210351613742571421550845248436697642268570534286187358866019543110472455474422435027777548192424575622164251887746378506256857133481177002414892834904637185615003550194056957583948495214565943523245204209873500485850532877871689719521196102368607855451711230775638156179884233142952576012353042414745560823256271471758149528790830782586379848326737555907190592043554660460095709565786617116196907537966085999933902138963294399312582256240827772220609663931039698627927656507846665210166548665770485471663522057973709076671745763071973566611321800154363466747904894358454676089528674956696629733918186625367689583304685437636079014314129056203678626605700767272691026912224674745090999929526640841185621305963114554628144894630325057071283167306109594071613675686034214884936878483828307528568963678862611273715084386126416237160855042669932271622872136784661MLM Index 3X 34669347003473134759347903482034851348813491234943349733500435034350653509635125351563518635217352473527835309353393537035400354313546235490355213555135582356123564335674357043573535765357963582735855358863591635947359773600836039360693610036130361613619236220362513628136312363423637336404364343646536495365263655736586366173664736678367083673936770368003683136861368923692336951369823701237043370733710437135371653719637226372573728837316373473737737408374383746937500375303756137591376223765337681377123774237773378033783437865378953792637956379873801838047380783810838139381693820038231382613829238322383533838438412384433847338504385343856538596386263865738687387183874938777388083883838869388993893038961389913902239052390833911439142391733920339234392643929539326393563938739417394483947939508395393956939600396303966139692397223975339783398143984539873399043993439965399954002640057400874011840148401794021040238402694029940330403604039140422404524048340513405444057540603406344066440695407254075640787408174084840878409094094040969410004103041061410914112241153411834121441244412754130641334413654139541426414564148741518415484157941609416404167141699417304176041791418214185241883419134194441974420054203642064420954212542156421864221742248422784230942339423704240142430424614249142522425524258342614110148884646900895103340591859474421072408712997243110940677971075865114262418660692781160092612677171142959157168208311013103426890634110783733289700331137038224450235111679226409959909121850894347440231242433353496411812252167585248812126896699822459641328653866929275813351606121318145134081055440927281296797928471894713619392434367088143576578138179231509218792763344715752141625393705159741476392170381624588692915244715961946131990337158166634405606991596268567466747615854045132050956160762782421028591674471548787969116334608788312481167136836594916961724103293485745617540016237536971184317397396999281833207803473638519081906293617161199528158418133362015627484786143521495947913924032218083936204276442354434329164940125568449301383946244569562533616392392098972026799324768457163719559259133315331014382621527584284674826443486642972855246776974677741692522251779160873425363596849993599255718459950524222543332082009850425755097037285197263905469237608912593318215612296269111264944554352772336103456553228413595450075206282512675271448142755300091516830227662953436071924283321999650090952858120804002444629274590427040774314817804441657153177213234675698932724829006272378344643433993104513357024175828066833541251801571748340849392335919133573122662643302134183224213506169350375186287367593498251493609266634218858110597834333267389762584413368122399944071733998101148189912334494512142795573371605936289772133754249508694474336728934548908533149571666931522831544831262756059321576109118041663364182590872654433313630471808207345352304220459553602010422381642353506087423034153511404375039457388026730482139434188411671450271744330063747749886421923848037816734253178733277496646190270333054864454404709212399464278353529314546427285481394055114540367249408701545841124640575002469076108389668847569518484822714849610768837257251060571175497652219113860765338492514839465369294843558030123659847601745376581057473128124445944394704277905596145950343427344960032520567863524614445442972190172910554497265868140495541039832423297543007691886491815371693301544380252432959673518953528883825581519765406434421783125752892673579868639554995535038222757554936841166908551543447906696125637801167088788657228607789353605575252875755654567950807540961575797433537416528573133681365925715511663633801610754124923718312337523635162123404735230715880167218252724277206795183511682380451475985133054437969212552622290028893799520491768101300335192278665029281450635738492353615078156340236386551021488843485043513646773187677665083519832107603248375870074608462508314598385507925268571318619042852184159214284254521628972131248554191254093339198585232375325283725845509247309335557767157307764609593111186249949546161219094094592654773180599687912503152135379287295149766029792115163411843563236063692083157713540857190831538127088974503174200586004758054979499215967270571947536747268892087788668714567833349511720355827928642302366600225106747576396402285420570113652974281025352986455580729791857567329116090210022649469842354643846346355313413052864342027491780147668002375855000886775240605615865267375078330068803658099901409815496233192816727965167131078552540018674691151011573536987953442583287466625072738788234713691521499241957238694169177803971793642853250548699884060217257537360129583255957972237039097739091728638025868266767966835670147050482209445615305849787895714812564137769813515439796780750502764271417809031126182080138078000781649011678968109588554389780000442351743847907302670362232982521940949887469774792464073246567541607708880763873188239184893966696953342110148546843727482284168568164592314229058669907460484101416670028005841815364726036177634292644162067518287266517983125485561662362591028781749627913830961134966319400177769446392149927453023662647807316842243621755084290590616389060372158093465128667668604236454503711708577364536047495606406623250136877504976370927279553024363244932772003528636143498551355266355779990150757647521485590334586922192146698701170714589328632549758205028463395178161839371290312886033501192088568816590408878332148698689561611674479293629886653179825347924837850757708360031927344283254956769909807824201775560706285394650126758993839434877515595628800987149600684889065832057726926918696888484690189495394480839779789087039133391421863001611292771298553107031643975291118372363297819930836093202313829167348572263920392620931197582674Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol3466934700347313475934790348203485134881349123494334973350043503435065350963512535156351863521735247352783530935339353703540035431354623549035521355513558235612356433567435704357353576535796358273585535886359163594735977360083603936069361003613036161361923622036251362813631236342363733640436434364653649536526365573658636617366473667836708367393677036800368313686136892369233695136982370123704337073371043713537165371963722637257372883731637347373773740837438374693750037530375613759137622376533768137712377423777337803378343786537895379263795637987380183804738078381083813938169382003823138261382923832238353383843841238443384733850438534385653859638626386573868738718387493877738808388383886938899389303896138991390223905239083391143914239173392033923439264392953932639356393873941739448394793950839539395693960039630396613969239722397533978339814398453987339904399343996539995400264005740087401184014840179402104023840269402994033040360403914042240452404834051340544405754060340634406644069540725407564078740817408484087840909409404096941000410304106141091411224115341183412144124441275413064133441365413954142641456414874151841548415794160941640416714169941730417604179141821418524188341913419444197442005420364206442095421254215642186422174224842278423094233942370424014243042461424914252242552425834261411018462101362837934799991085448004538323111929118787182351207652511407176612019125390204581117484546864171731138109225682759411830542971141973121282349239248191253561020678453113125047134317747138373303172500361331459748985528213803323105317908144737919185125151412776697511663614531058211188315137577152931888721415729437616425115318985323494783165982278309038621803231471549395617904050860922647176145960706541091733942085083835175478753683071291781330453112814217978309170999982178327747582607391891163979836075817798727619506824189722689263713871946922853862876201326619703110722104247709741140121084225371972662212855164715988862206722706401835322669441690595415238021656835493992409319476336215824715883382021251271921183062991962754716579502454626218979196217438257775040245115282671023723013445526347004714041855255795955077359592495813923487551426251544884444464257360170460037412686083540701638126872519870418432268999567132061262705837055829019925763194593147083265313757663309472813103200541033527419823254249551277010409615451362676529979786414226160056073535038263894797652999412548730262056363225800821930099183269664772640791342707517913393063628270088014648396313954310549318153084717264241954307157328397901933299419518611299136098849970540673374596302831080134120070774442652341385979728731753396520803376895345726418142448733666639557515736237492416134674511343543009042022533332642022114852532434638542450811315841698852292073039414153229354430189376200790483316853805490444573357411439819244935075011608249249360984302969547423856135399925536837040956933772726354401578979658723774972210786050840695295174214756416994515826385033964521149932298139713282327467319427164404503527264170307833354900940084206535718971410646261433761244217189272270611745540752200966779456751429607118284972013362131246351043335537376455539648008468581965376016632204691248114327415071871465643724717227545473136402847931445785433903947054319063502047815646472216278699063479607213661057945178227960527846352191618525558194503566656014366215072099607706301949091279752110903474678311307085914813726995314497449313263458100307501108068680081651265560301474542535683580046564785086503081795148954583264570743744560523185534007515884008061665413858330466678433295622111342960827866909373871666130868051874230552771652422845510701696432876208278608866200600401871004659472507041330465932874203479539697809804734914257004524104654454705380793625480346959025919015347688813432197833827357071618484301576055052128972793782966226803700147344207548094170970392760506973007753442576737939978018203711477063777852829118623665779019542537975168470879331063159292969340707904458913438647549674528465612369693250484829245469892748812978175263532882565884241246206833661953571965958747281414049210197798367540078193102939236528189951046893064884057110450275014424337105381618272956461035480834966252810098081586249346103444040903827289943765319962205110100628217884611012827363731696104489043958535041025208883265320710924810397674245105958862062210699973907685915891710079521394402054104113593977485571045082886122542310633415292259892107173767394075751033610606190315107818092913984761091714256162410911487792520462763107169501545471921136118889613764111388603444944021115574053252049810939037910685213114249390356399391083133347816519510328737942111374108260563452860941083193489388158411210933463883606105110348877333521050495950956824310526830835267162104791863989067431062821090868559510400777823450634102113172546186561060003146855022697107312284647369906353909062158296792111202812716948336196247350049135711396291183690494702807101941926996967356997999572105795140647295866841122666457979433169013834081008090404106009810012515188045546101181772608249919920326422666829806500597293140997560167322182769688378268213806910137938396615464102906867144372699764410705174233597071424363883869524017194325919595544845253305679622646217934274796239452751736962965375063369090821012347317827440610770514966463814109420569583346841208711039285353212664209478560323141025217416688541386837757319192514666752333325439139155359455648431403916156690523913166501323067976136168615008235161328539985817047137418197702979161294379107077740413338408429152194132004225939526151384230634300615614456614056202426138838285506816291402147282693308713284924859334293145344916066784191457470854495409713932867530051409140675983590670087030 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

Performance Stats

Performance stats (2)

Correlations

Annual Returns

Calendar Year Returns

MLM Index 3X1995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420150218999999999999970311015404060000000000000370000000000000007E-202110000000000000240000000000000001E-30151022600000000000001014599999999999999005-008-90000000000000011E-30379-96999999999999989E-299000000000000005E-2013400000000000001-017199999999999999-27999999999999997E-2025390999999999999998E-2Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015031303639999999999999901749999999999999902690000000000000252999999999999999E-297000000000000003E-2008013300000000000001031700573999999999999996E-2025011203439999999999999712E-271999999999999995E-2-72999999999999995E-2-01189999999999999901102310000000000000142000000000000003E-27030 Portfolio1995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420150265000000000000010145999999999999990218999999999999970196999999999999980182-55999999999999994E-2-88000000000000009E-2-0138000000000000010247011469000000000000006E-2015174999999999999997E-2-03070238999999999999990135000000000000012E-301350000000000000102280000000000000190999999999999998E-2-2E-3

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 19

The Credit Suisse MF Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLM 3x Index Correlations

bull Both MLM and Credit Suisse exhibit similar negative correlations with US equities

bull MLM and Credit Suisse indices are highly correlated with one another

Correlations ndash various periods ending 93016

SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM 7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099MLM Index 3X -054 -056 MLM Index 3X -023 -026

Credit Suisse Index -059 -055 080 Credit Suisse Index -021 -020 082

SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM 7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099MLM Index 3X -031 -033 MLM Index 3X -036 -036

Credit Suisse Index -027 -027 076 Credit Suisse Index -021 -021 066

1 Year Correlation 3 Year Correlation

10 Year Correlation5 Year Correlation

SampP 500 7030 MLM 7030 Portfolio 098MLM Index 3X -027 -026

Credit Suisse Index -018 -016 066

20 Year Correlation

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 20

Systematic Trend Following modeled with the MLM 3X IndexTM in the AL study Long history calculated back to pre-1970 PCA used data going back to 1970 Simple captures the beta captures big down markets reasonable for modeling However has only one lookback period (12 months) slow to respond to trends Investible but not inclusive of the full opportunity set (no equities)

Benchmark recommendation Credit Suisse Managed Futures Liquid IndexTM15 vol Diversified across 18 deep and liquid futures contracts in major markets Diversified across 16 lookback horizons from trading 30 days to 12 months Utilizes a moving average crossover method to determine the signal Equally risk weighted over 288 potentially different signals (long or short) Most comparable to the strategies that will be sourced

Recommended RISIC Mandate Benchmark

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 21

Due Diligence Plan Update Relating To STF and Platform Manager

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 22

Due Diligence Process Outline Platform Manager

bull Provide a short list of platform implementation platform managers

Draft DDQ prepared to be issued

bull Send DDQ to short list platform managers

bull Conduct a review of platform managers DDQ responses - rate proposals

PCA and Rhode Island investment staff

bull Conduct onsite due diligence at platform managers offices in NYC

PCA and Rhode Island investment staff

bull Platform manager recommendation

PCA memo to SIC SIC interview recommended platform manager

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 23

Due Diligence Process Outline STF Managers

bull Provide a short list of systematic trend following managers

bull Draft DDQ prepared to be issued

bull Send a DDQ to short list systematic trend following managers

bull Conduct a review of STF managers DDQ responses - rate proposals

bull PCA and Rhode Island investment staff

bull Systematic trend following managers recommendation

bull PCA memo to SIC

bull SIC interview recommended systematic trend following managers

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 24

Other Implementation Crisis Risk OffsetSM Class Managers

Other bull Platform manager to conduct operational due diligence at recommended STF

Managerrsquos office

bull STF Managers hired contracting other administration 1Q 2017

bull Fund long-duration Fixed Income and systematic trend following accounts pari passu

bull Primary source of funds ndash Equity HF portfolio redemptions

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 25

Appendix

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 26

Model Output Focus Portfolio Comparison of Trend IndicesFocus Portfolio

Line Strategic Class Trend

MLM 3x Index

TrendCS MF Index

1 US Equity 200 2002 Non-US Equity 200 2003 Private Growth 150 1504 Income Class 60 605 Crisis Risk Offset 80 806 Inflation Protection 100 1007 IG Fixed Income 115 1158 Absolute Return 65 659 Cash 30 30

10 Total 1000 1000

Asset Only Statistics11 Median Scenario Comp Return (22-year period) 73 7312 Average Scenario Standard Deviation (22-year period) 118 12113 Sharpe Ratio (22-year period) 041 04014 Sortino Ratio (22-year period) 074 074

15 Best Year Worst Year 298 -208

306 -210

16 Average 2-year Loss of Worst 10 -160 -164AssetLiability Statistics

17 Percent of Scenarios lt50 [during first 5-years] 75 7918 Median Funded Ratio [end of 5-years] 600 59919 Average Funded Ratio of Worst 10 [end of 5-years] 477 47620 Median Funded Ratio [end of 22-years] 994 99121 Average Funded Ratio of Worst 10 [end of 22-years] 671 66522 Median Avg Ann Employer Cntrbs Rate [during 22-yrs] 206 20623 Average of Yrs w Employer Cntrbs Rate gt30 [during 22-yrs] 44 47

bull For modeling purposes both indices have same volatility assumptions

bull Modeling the Focus Portfolio with the CS MF Index results in the same long-term return (line 11) and slightly higher risk (line 12)

bull Portfolio results are similar regardless of the trend following index used in modeling the total portfolio

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 27

Comparing Modeling of MLM 3x and CS MF IndexMLM 3x Index Credits Suisse MF Index

1970 1607 9491971 648 -5801972 278 12791973 9190 63231974 1458 51501975 -620 -20551976 851 14651977 374 15591978 -178 4531979 2107 31971980 -568 4861981 2839 18891982 1278 13801983 -1005 -11941984 1281 0881985 239 5561986 456 2281987 643 10851988 188 -10381989 809 0551990 657 3771991 -604 -7281992 -557 -12351993 481 14301994 549 -7851995 384 14781996 409 21071997 077 0061998 992 10741999 -564 -12982000 3782 0122001 043 0492002 -972 11652003 1191 39572004 992 0172005 456 1152006 -1329 24292007 -461 4192008 4324 42422009 -811 -3752010 1370 5092011 1740 -16162012 -1910 -22872013 -127 10762014 2995 28432015 1359 086

-4000

-2000

000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Annual Modeled Returns

$0

$500

$1000

$1500

$2000

$2500

Growth of $100

MLM 3x Credit Suisse Managed Futures

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 28

The Credit Suisse Managed Futures Indextrade is a systematic trend following strategy that trades a total of 18 futures contracts providing liquid and diversified exposure to market trends across asset classes geographies and time horizons The strategy tracks 16 time horizon signals to identify trends across various horizons ranging from shorter-term moving average (60 trading days) to longer-term moving average (360 trading days) The average length of moving average signal utilized is a 210 trading days moving average

bull Shortest signal compares the 60 (trading) day MA (moving average) versus 5 day MA

bull Longest signal compares the 360 (trading) day MA (moving average) versus 5 day MA

bull For each of the 18 different futures contracts (markets) total return index

- If average price in most recent 5 days is gt average price over 60 days =gt Buy the market (go long)

- If average price in most recent 5 days is lt average price over 60 days=gt Sell the market (go short)

bull Signals are equally weighted resulting in a portfolio of long and short exposures When signals align (strong trends) the index is more long or more short

Recommended Benchmark Index

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 29

The Credit Suisse Managed Futures Indextrade Markets Traded

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 30

bull Diversifies and balances risk across the four major futures market typesbull Rebalancing incorporates recent trailing volatility of each instrument traded

The Credit Suisse Managed Futures Indextrade Risk Allocation

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 31

Instruments Forwards

bull Agreement to buysell an asset at a future time for a specified price Long position = agree to buy at the future date Short position = agree to sell at the future date

bull Over-the-counter instrument (ie customized have counterparty risk)

bull Different than an option in that both buyer and seller have obligations

bull Essentially a contract that states Asset type and amount Future date of trade Future price of trade Settlement options (ie cash payment or delivery of asset)

bull Currency forwards can be more liquid than currency futures

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 32

Instruments Futures

bull Futures = analogous to forwards but exchange tradedstandardized Exchanges (eg CME Group) provide numerous services

o Guarantee contracts will be honored backed by exchange with is backed by all of the exchange members (de minimis counterparty risk)

o Facilitate transactionso Set margin requirementso Organize daily settlementmarking to marketo Arrange settlementdelivery procedures

bull Extremely liquid instruments

bull Vast majority of futures contracts do not lead to delivery

bull Regulated by the US Government Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 33

Futures Transaction Example

bull November crude oil contract (one contract = 1000 barrels of oil)

bull ldquoPricerdquo of contract = delivery price (ie futures are free) 1000 barrels $43 = $43000 of exposure (ie notional value)

o Longbuy position = agree to buy 1000 barrels in November $43barrelo Shortsell position = agree to sell 1000 barrels in November $43barrel

Initial margin = $3190 (ie money that must be deposited to trade)o Typically equal to roughly one-day maximum price fluctuationo Margin = embedded leverageo Exchanges require daily settlementmark to market

bull At contract expiration (or anytime while contract is traded) | longbuy ldquoSpotrdquo price = $50

o Gain = ($50-$43) x 1000 = $7000

ldquoSpotrdquo price = $40o Loss = ($40-$43) x 1000 = ($3000)

Gainslosses for shortsell positionare the opposite

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 34

Leverage in Trend Following Strategies

bull Futures contain embedded leverage

bull Trend Following strategies leverage asymp 0x-7x Averagefull-cycle leverage asymp 3x

bull Without leverage (ie 1x) strategy volatility may be asymp 6 (ie bond-like)

bull Leveragerisk oversight is key component of strategy selection

bull Leverage protections Futures have daily price limits and daily settlement

o Price limit = maximum change in contract priceo Exchanges will close out positions if failed settlement

Long and short positions partially offset leverage risks

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 35

CROSM Implementation Considerations (LongShort aspects)bull Long position ndash give up cash to buy a security (traditional)

bull Short position ndash sell an un-owned security receive cash liable for securityrsquos position

bull Because of the liability short positions require collateral as security collateral levels based on potential security movements not total value of positions

bull Minimum collateral requirements allow managers to apply leverage

bull Unlike typical leveraged situations collateral requirements re-set every day

bull Longshort portfolios contain many offsetting long and short positions itrsquos the net position that matters

bull Longshort portfolios utilize ldquoprimary brokersrdquo to effect these types of trades

bull In total across entire CROSM class hundreds of netted ls positions

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 36

DISCLOSURES This document is provided for informational purposes only It does not constitute an offer of securities of any of the issuers that may be described herein Informationcontained herein may have been provided by third parties including investment firms providing information on returns and assets under management and may not have beenindependently verified The past performance information contained in this report is not necessarily indicative of future results and there is no assurance that the investment in question willachieve comparable results or that the Firm will be able to implement its investment strategy or achieve its investment objectives The actual realized value of currently unrealizedinvestments (if any) will depend on a variety of factors including future operating results the value of the assets and market conditions at the time of disposition any related transactioncosts and the timing and manner of sale all of which may differ from the assumptions and circumstances on which any current unrealized valuations are based

Neither PCA nor PCArsquos officers employees or agents make any representation or warranty express or implied in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained inthis document or any oral information provided in connection herewith or any data subsequently generated herefrom and accept no responsibility obligation or liability (whether direct orindirect in contract tort or otherwise) in relation to any of such information PCA and PCArsquos officers employees and agents expressly disclaim any and all liability that may be based on thisdocument and any errors therein or omissions therefrom Neither PCA nor any of PCArsquos officers employees or agents make any representation of warranty express or implied that anytransaction has been or may be effected on the terms or in the manner stated in this document or as to the achievement or reasonableness of future projections management targetsestimates prospects or returns if any Any views or terms contained herein are preliminary only and are based on financial economic market and other conditions prevailing as of thedate of this document and are therefore subject to change

The information contained in this report may include forward-looking statements Forward-looking statements include a number of risks uncertainties and other factors beyond the control ofthe Firm which may result in material differences in actual results performance or other expectations The opinions estimates and analyses reflect PCArsquos current judgment which maychange in the future

Any tables graphs or charts relating to past performance included in this report are intended only to illustrate investment performance for the historical periods shown Such tables graphsand charts are not intended to predict future performance and should not be used as the basis for an investment decision

All trademarks or product names mentioned herein are the property of their respective owners Indices are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index The index dataprovided is on an ldquoas isrdquo basis In no event shall the index providers or its affiliates have any liability of any kind in connection with the index data or the portfolio described herein Copyingor redistributing the index data is strictly prohibited

The Russell indices are either registered trademarks or trade names of Frank Russell Company in the US andor other countries

The MSCI indices are trademarks and service marks of MSCI or its subsidiaries

Standard and Poorrsquos (SampP) is a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc SampP indices including the SampP 500 are a registered trademark of The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc

CBOE not SampP calculates and disseminates the BXM Index The CBOE has a business relationship with Standard amp Poors on the BXM CBOE and Chicago Board Options Exchange areregistered trademarks of the CBOE and SPX and CBOE SampP 500 BuyWrite Index BXM are servicemarks of the CBOE The methodology of the CBOE SampP 500 BuyWrite Index is owned by CBOEand may be covered by one or more patents or pending patent applications

The Barclays Capital indices (formerly known as the Lehman indices) are trademarks of Barclays Capital Inc

The Citigroup indices are trademarks of Citicorp or its affiliates

The Merrill Lynch indices are trademarks of Merrill Lynch amp Co or its affiliates

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MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15x 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol 7030 Portfolio
1995 0219 0228 0265 1995 0219 0313 0265
1996 0311 0264 0146 1996 0311 0364 0146
1997 0154 014 0219 1997 0154 0175 0219
1998 0406 0209 0197 1998 0406 0269 0197
1999 007 0066 0182 1999 007 0053 0182
2000 0211 0087 -0056 2000 0211 0097 -0056
2001 0004 007 -0088 2001 0004 008 -0088
2002 0151 0112 -0138 2002 0151 0133 -0138
2003 0226 0213 0247 2003 0226 0317 0247
2004 0146 0042 0114 2004 0146 005 0114
2005 005 0063 0069 2005 005 0074 0069
2006 -008 0188 0151 2006 -008 025 0151
2007 -0009 0095 0075 2007 -0009 0112 0075
2008 0379 023 -0307 2008 0379 0344 -0307
2009 -0097 0009 0239 2009 -0097 0012 0239
2010 0099 005 0135 2010 0099 0072 0135
2011 0134 -0048 0002 2011 0134 -0073 0002
2012 -0172 -008 0135 2012 -0172 -0119 0135
2013 -0028 0075 0228 2013 -0028 011 0228
2014 0253 0158 0091 2014 0253 0231 0091
2015 0091 0036 -0002 2015 0091 0042 -0002
Return 110 101 80 Return 110 131 80
StDev 153 93 146 StDev 153 134 146
Corr to 7030 -023 005 100 Corr to 7030 -023 004 100
1 Year Correlation 3 Year Correlation
SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM
7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099
MLM Index 3X -054 -056 MLM Index 3X -023 -026
Credit Suisse Index -059 -055 080 Credit Suisse Index -021 -020 082
5 Year Correlation 10 Year Correlation
SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM
7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099
MLM Index 3X -031 -033 MLM Index 3X -036 -036
Credit Suisse Index -027 -027 076 Credit Suisse Index -021 -021 066
20 Year Correlation
SampP 500 7030 MLM
7030 Portfolio 098
MLM Index 3X -027 -026
Credit Suisse Index -018 -016 066
Correlation to date Correlation to date
SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
SampP 500 Index 1 099 -054 -059 SampP 500 Index 1 099 -023 -021
7030 Portfolio 099 1 -056 -055 7030 Portfolio 099 1 -026 -02
MLM Index 3X -054 -056 1 08 MLM Index 3X -023 -026 1 082
Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -059 -055 08 1 Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -021 -02 082 1
Correlation to date Correlation to date
SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
5 5 5 5 10 Years 10 Years 10 Years 10 Years
SampP 500 Index 1 099 -031 -027 SampP 500 Index 1 099 -036 -021
7030 Portfolio 099 1 -033 -027 7030 Portfolio 099 1 -036 -021
MLM Index 3X -031 -033 1 076 MLM Index 3X -036 -036 1 066
Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -027 -027 076 1 Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -021 -021 066 1
Correlation to date
SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
5 5 5 5
SampP 500 Index 1 098 -027 -018
7030 Portfolio 098 1 -026 -016
MLM Index 3X -027 -026 1 066
Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -018 -016 066 1
MLM 3x Credit Suisse 15 Vol 7030 SampP 500
Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio
Periods Ending 9302016
1 Year 85 124 07 24 162 01 125 105 12 154 125 12
3 Years 139 145 10 130 156 08 79 90 09 112 108 10
5 Years 33 129 03 46 138 03 120 92 13 164 111 15 SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
10 Years 58 163 03 79 144 05 62 124 04 72 153 04 Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date
20 Years 98 141 05 117 147 06 71 121 04 79 154 04 Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g) Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g) Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g) Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g)
1 Year 1543 1246 122 1252 1052 116 846 1244 066 24 162 01
Statistical Measures 3 Years 1116 1083 102 792 897 087 1392 1446 095 130 156 08
Largest Drawdown - period Mar-09 - May-09 Mar-11 - Nov-12 Nov-07 - Feb-09 Nov-07 - Feb-09 5 Years 1637 1112 146 12 915 13 329 1288 025 46 138 03
Largest Drawdown - -2509 -277 -4216 -5095 10 Years 724 1525 041 621 1239 043 58 1627 03 79 144 05
Largest Drawdown - of months 3 21 16 16 20 Years 791 1535 036 711 1212 039 977 1408 053 117 147 06
Recovery Period Jun-09 - Jul-11 Dec-12 - Nov-14 Mar-09 - Apr-11 Mar-09 - Mar-12
Recovery Duration 26 24 26 37 00237 01617
01298 0156
Crisis Period Returns 00464 01383
LTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98) 121 143 -88 -100 00787 01439
Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02) 113 127 -145 -206 01172 01466
Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09) 326 277 -309 -388
MLM Credit Suisse 7030
Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio
Periods Ending 9302016
1 Year 85 124 07 14 90 01 125 105 12
3 Years 139 145 10 90 103 09 79 90 09
5 Years 33 129 03 35 92 04 120 92 13
10 Years 58 163 03 58 97 05 62 124 04
20 Years 98 141 05 91 100 07 71 121 04
Statistical Measures
Largest Drawdown - period Mar-09 - May-09 Mar-11 - Nov-12 Nov-07 - Feb-09
Largest Drawdown - -2509 -1486 -4216
Largest Drawdown - of months 3 21 16
Recovery Period Jun-09 - Jul-11 Dec-12 - Nov-14 Mar-09 - Apr-11
Recovery Duration 26 24 26
Full - history semi-deviation 83 54 83
Full - history skewness 03 02 -08
Full- history kurtosis 47 -01 15
Crisis Period Returns
LTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98) 121 104 -88
Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02) 113 157 -145
Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09) 326 183 -309
SampP 500 Index MLM Index 3X woInt Credit Suisse Index 7030 Portfolio
Return Return Return Return
Total Total Total Total
Jan-73 -149 NA NA NA
Feb-73 -352 NA NA NA
Mar-73 009 NA NA NA
Apr-73 -384 NA NA NA
May-73 -164 NA NA NA
Jun-73 -04 NA NA NA
Jul-73 406 NA NA NA
Aug-73 -342 NA NA NA
Sep-73 427 NA NA NA
Oct-73 013 NA NA NA
Nov-73 -1112 NA NA NA
Dec-73 196 NA NA NA
Jan-74 -071 NA NA NA
Feb-74 -005 NA NA NA
Mar-74 -202 NA NA NA
Apr-74 -359 NA NA NA
May-74 -302 NA NA NA
Jun-74 -112 NA NA NA
Jul-74 -742 NA NA NA
Aug-74 -864 NA NA NA
Sep-74 -115 NA NA NA
Oct-74 168 NA NA NA
Nov-74 -49 NA NA NA
Dec-74 -158 NA NA NA
Jan-75 1273 NA NA NA
Feb-75 639 NA NA NA
Mar-75 255 NA NA NA
Apr-75 509 NA NA NA
May-75 476 NA NA NA
Jun-75 477 NA NA NA
Jul-75 -644 NA NA NA
Aug-75 -176 NA NA NA
Sep-75 -311 NA NA NA
Oct-75 654 NA NA NA
Nov-75 281 NA NA NA
Dec-75 -082 NA NA NA
Jan-76 1217 NA NA NA
Feb-76 -084 NA NA NA
Mar-76 338 NA NA NA
Apr-76 -08 NA NA NA
May-76 -112 NA NA NA
Jun-76 441 NA NA NA
Jul-76 -05 NA NA NA
Aug-76 -02 NA NA NA
Sep-76 258 NA NA NA
Oct-76 -191 NA NA NA
Nov-76 -045 NA NA NA
Dec-76 558 NA NA NA
Jan-77 -473 NA NA NA
Feb-77 -182 NA NA NA
Mar-77 -104 NA NA NA
Apr-77 038 NA NA NA
May-77 -198 NA NA NA
Jun-77 493 NA NA NA
Jul-77 -124 NA NA NA
Aug-77 -172 NA NA NA
Sep-77 015 NA NA NA
Oct-77 -394 NA NA NA
Nov-77 312 NA NA NA
Dec-77 071 NA NA NA
Jan-78 -573 NA NA NA
Feb-78 -202 NA NA NA
Mar-78 297 NA NA NA
Apr-78 901 NA NA NA
May-78 086 NA NA NA
Jun-78 -132 NA NA NA
Jul-78 584 NA NA NA
Aug-78 302 NA NA NA
Sep-78 -031 NA NA NA
Oct-78 -874 NA NA NA
Nov-78 213 NA NA NA
Dec-78 194 NA NA NA
Jan-79 443 NA NA NA
Feb-79 -321 NA NA NA
Mar-79 598 NA NA NA
Apr-79 061 NA NA NA
May-79 -218 NA NA NA
Jun-79 434 NA NA NA
Jul-79 133 NA NA NA
Aug-79 576 NA NA NA
Sep-79 044 NA NA NA
Oct-79 -639 NA NA NA
Nov-79 472 NA NA NA
Dec-79 22 NA NA NA
Jan-80 621 NA NA NA
Feb-80 -001 NA NA NA
Mar-80 -975 NA NA NA
Apr-80 462 NA NA NA
May-80 515 NA NA NA
Jun-80 316 NA NA NA
Jul-80 696 NA NA NA
Aug-80 101 NA NA NA
Sep-80 294 NA NA NA
Oct-80 202 NA NA NA
Nov-80 1065 NA NA NA
Dec-80 -301 NA NA NA
Jan-81 -42 NA NA NA
Feb-81 172 NA NA NA
Mar-81 399 NA NA NA
Apr-81 -194 NA NA NA
May-81 025 NA NA NA
Jun-81 -062 NA NA NA
Jul-81 021 NA NA NA
Aug-81 -578 NA NA NA
Sep-81 -492 NA NA NA
Oct-81 54 NA NA NA
Nov-81 412 NA NA NA
Dec-81 -256 NA NA NA
Jan-82 -13 NA NA NA
Feb-82 -559 NA NA NA
Mar-82 -052 NA NA NA
Apr-82 452 NA NA NA
May-82 -341 NA NA NA
Jun-82 -15 NA NA NA
Jul-82 -177 NA NA NA
Aug-82 1214 NA NA NA
Sep-82 124 NA NA NA
Oct-82 1151 NA NA NA
Nov-82 404 NA NA NA
Dec-82 193 NA NA NA
Jan-83 372 NA NA NA
Feb-83 229 NA NA NA
Mar-83 369 NA NA NA
Apr-83 788 NA NA NA
May-83 -087 NA NA NA
Jun-83 389 NA NA NA
Jul-83 -295 NA NA NA
Aug-83 15 NA NA NA
Sep-83 138 NA NA NA
Oct-83 -116 NA NA NA
Nov-83 211 NA NA NA
Dec-83 -052 NA NA NA
Jan-84 -056 NA NA NA
Feb-84 -352 NA NA NA
Mar-84 173 NA NA NA
Apr-84 092 NA NA NA
May-84 -556 NA NA NA
Jun-84 214 NA NA NA
Jul-84 -124 NA NA NA
Aug-84 1104 NA NA NA
Sep-84 002 NA NA NA
Oct-84 038 NA NA NA
Nov-84 -112 NA NA NA
Dec-84 264 NA NA NA
Jan-85 779 NA NA NA
Feb-85 123 NA NA NA
Mar-85 006 NA NA NA
Apr-85 -009 NA NA NA
May-85 578 NA NA NA
Jun-85 157 NA NA NA
Jul-85 -014 NA NA NA
Aug-85 -086 NA NA NA
Sep-85 -313 NA NA NA
Oct-85 462 NA NA NA
Nov-85 686 NA NA NA
Dec-85 484 NA NA NA
Jan-86 056 NA NA NA
Feb-86 747 NA NA NA
Mar-86 558 NA NA NA
Apr-86 -113 NA NA NA
May-86 532 NA NA NA
Jun-86 169 NA NA NA
Jul-86 -559 NA NA NA
Aug-86 741 NA NA NA
Sep-86 -827 NA NA NA
Oct-86 577 NA NA NA
Nov-86 243 NA NA NA
Dec-86 -255 NA NA NA
Jan-87 1347 NA NA NA
Feb-87 395 NA NA NA
Mar-87 289 NA NA NA
Apr-87 -089 NA NA NA
May-87 087 NA NA NA
Jun-87 505 NA NA NA
Jul-87 507 NA NA NA
Aug-87 373 NA NA NA
Sep-87 -219 NA NA NA
Oct-87 -2153 NA NA NA
Nov-87 -824 NA NA NA
Dec-87 761 NA NA NA
Jan-88 421 NA NA 349
Feb-88 466 NA NA 436
Mar-88 -309 NA NA 036
Apr-88 11 NA NA 066
May-88 086 NA NA -09
Jun-88 458 NA NA 252
Jul-88 -038 NA NA 02
Aug-88 -34 NA NA -286
Sep-88 425 NA NA 359
Oct-88 282 NA NA 344
Nov-88 -143 NA NA 034
Dec-88 174 NA NA 116
Jan-89 731 NA NA 398
Feb-89 -248 NA NA -089
Mar-89 232 NA NA 07
Apr-89 52 NA NA 323
May-89 405 NA NA 14
Jun-89 -057 NA NA 004
Jul-89 903 NA NA 742
Aug-89 195 NA NA -04
Sep-89 -041 NA NA 113
Oct-89 -232 NA NA -171
Nov-89 204 NA NA 23
Dec-89 24 NA NA 194
Jan-90 -671 NA NA -478
Feb-90 13 NA NA -08
Mar-90 264 NA NA -117
Apr-90 -249 NA NA -177
May-90 975 NA NA 786
Jun-90 -067 NA NA -001
Jul-90 -032 NA NA 019
Aug-90 -904 NA NA -722
Sep-90 -487 NA NA -53
Oct-90 -043 NA NA 295
Nov-90 646 NA NA 26
Dec-90 279 NA NA 235
Jan-91 435 NA NA 348
Feb-91 715 NA NA 62
Mar-91 242 NA NA 049
Apr-91 024 NA NA 058
May-91 431 NA NA 257
Jun-91 -458 NA NA -379
Jul-91 466 NA NA 377
Aug-91 237 NA NA 166
Sep-91 -167 NA NA 095
Oct-91 134 NA NA 152
Nov-91 -403 NA NA -26
Dec-91 1144 NA NA 76
Jan-92 -186 -50186134107 NA -101
Feb-92 13 -11806985257 NA 03
Mar-92 -194 -34682100213 NA -245
Apr-92 294 04856690806 NA 135
May-92 049 36691977834 NA 196
Jun-92 -149 3995994645 NA -144
Jul-92 409 58382478439 NA 241
Aug-92 -205 21392596519 NA 003
Sep-92 118 -10417441781 NA 069
Oct-92 035 -11426309261 NA -063
Nov-92 34 -24243841368 NA 231
Dec-92 123 03309287484 NA 157
Jan-93 084 12125566229 NA 109
Feb-93 136 59842293696 NA 136
Mar-93 211 -06484088187 NA 282
Apr-93 -242 09183032136 NA 027
May-93 268 -00124707027 NA 196
Jun-93 029 75565231659 NA 064
Jul-93 -04 34694235802 NA 068
Aug-93 379 26998187389 NA 356
Sep-93 -077 -35544940483 NA -032
Oct-93 207 12906000348 NA 154
Nov-93 -095 39231376084 NA -251
Dec-93 121 23140907663 NA 262
Jan-94 34 -16392143954 NA 357
Feb-94 -271 -5375365439 NA -19
Mar-94 -436 -17526970615 NA -389
Apr-94 128 -31042584129 NA 106
May-94 164 21687630069 NA 058
Jun-94 -245 -02802505425 NA -136
Jul-94 328 -09170406074 NA 249
Aug-94 41 03148132864 NA 3
Sep-94 -245 49091708791 NA -203
Oct-94 225 33710507687 NA 14
Nov-94 -364 -02736669026 NA -3 SampP 500 Index MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol 7030 Portfolio
Dec-94 148 11635880505 NA 095 Dec-94 100 100 100 100
Jan-95 259 1488846469 18462 078 Jan-95 103 101 102 101
Feb-95 39 18245801927 -04746 274 Feb-95 107 103 101 104
Mar-95 295 37741988604 70854 257 Mar-95 110 107 109 106
Apr-95 294 20196669281 31179 254 Apr-95 113 109 112 109
May-95 4 4438151788 78944 291 May-95 117 114 121 112
Jun-95 232 15287989065 -04753 152 Jun-95 120 116 120 114
Jul-95 332 -14769041128 -2252 32 Jul-95 124 114 117 117
Aug-95 025 -36439459991 -31269 016 Aug-95 125 110 114 118
Sep-95 422 05926567612 39491 274 Sep-95 130 111 118 121
Oct-95 -036 2635846499 25163 -064 Oct-95 129 114 121 120
Nov-95 439 27162162082 33589 332 Nov-95 135 117 125 124
Dec-95 193 4331305919 47021 198 Dec-95 138 122 131 126
Jan-96 34 19634168588 54269 207 Jan-96 142 124 138 129
Feb-96 093 -13857157749 -37777 042 Feb-96 144 123 133 130
Mar-96 096 3570816298 36706 074 Mar-96 145 127 138 131
Apr-96 147 47035792726 48573 151 Apr-96 147 133 145 133
May-96 258 04897246276 -23907 119 May-96 151 134 141 134
Jun-96 038 04231657395 28546 021 Jun-96 151 134 145 134
Jul-96 -442 -32825387444 -5322 -362 Jul-96 145 130 138 130
Aug-96 211 50232432929 29044 183 Aug-96 148 136 142 132
Sep-96 563 54206924649 82056 405 Sep-96 156 144 153 137
Oct-96 276 51159466491 83507 144 Oct-96 160 151 166 139
Nov-96 756 43728165918 864 527 Nov-96 173 158 180 147
Dec-96 -198 14093703517 -07113 -113 Dec-96 169 160 179 145
Jan-97 625 17011191838 -16167 314 Jan-97 180 162 176 150
Feb-97 078 -17477703643 -15622 041 Feb-97 181 160 173 150
Mar-97 -411 -0910181567 12022 -309 Mar-97 174 158 175 145
Apr-97 597 09232176853 15126 349 Apr-97 184 160 178 151
May-97 609 -06805906276 09263 543 May-97 195 159 180 159
Jun-97 448 14017438969 -08095 375 Jun-97 204 161 178 165
Jul-97 796 41579104051 60499 584 Jul-97 220 167 189 174
Aug-97 -56 -24491709033 -58848 -401 Aug-97 208 163 178 167
Sep-97 548 23206853381 65934 476 Sep-97 219 167 190 175
Oct-97 -334 3155194786 26194 -317 Oct-97 212 172 195 170
Nov-97 463 1734137994 34076 24 Nov-97 222 175 201 174
Dec-97 172 50839377232 45191 168 Dec-97 226 184 210 177
Jan-98 111 -0540706989 01984 101 Jan-98 228 183 211 178
Feb-98 721 40902523842 09547 561 Feb-98 245 191 213 189
Mar-98 512 4564059454 36725 385 Mar-98 257 200 221 196
Apr-98 101 10197007162 2729 086 Apr-98 260 202 227 197
May-98 -172 66464318242 49967 -174 May-98 255 215 238 194
Jun-98 406 14535097859 12227 237 Jun-98 266 218 241 199
Jul-98 -106 79600070571 25845 -106 143 Jul-98 263 235 247 197
Aug-98 -1446 85969949752 100188 -1191 Aug-98 225 256 272 173
Sep-98 641 -43471273323 13057 462 Sep-98 239 245 275 181
Oct-98 813 -21914686666 -48215 62 Oct-98 259 239 262 192
Nov-98 606 35427775078 -16838 49 Nov-98 274 248 258 202
Dec-98 576 46223079694 36184 48 Dec-98 290 259 267 211
Jan-99 418 11652083769 -13599 243 Jan-99 302 262 263 217
Feb-99 -311 08705260303 -29127 -306 Feb-99 293 264 256 210
Mar-99 4 -66775958823 -24295 326 Mar-99 305 247 250 217
Apr-99 387 22077437514 51823 383 Apr-99 316 252 263 225
May-99 -236 05593377297 -19638 -207 May-99 309 254 257 220
Jun-99 555 0821055256 43706 406 Jun-99 326 256 269 229
Jul-99 -312 -05417097185 00435 -19 Jul-99 316 254 269 225
Aug-99 -049 12651757883 01021 -075 Aug-99 314 258 269 223
Sep-99 -274 24672781685 05889 -147 Sep-99 306 264 271 220
Oct-99 633 -17330628613 -47866 486 Oct-99 325 259 258 231
Nov-99 203 37710155755 29817 248 Nov-99 332 269 265 236
Dec-99 589 30182108515 60293 568 Dec-99 351 277 281 250
Jan-00 -502 24897212667 -25282 -359 Jan-00 334 284 274 241
Feb-00 -189 -05713037029 10256 122 Feb-00 327 283 277 244
Mar-00 978 -24716293218 -3378 621 Mar-00 359 276 268 259
Apr-00 -301 03990582414 -22613 -331 1573 Apr-00 348 277 262 250
May-00 -205 24192880579 0877 -232 May-00 341 283 264 245
Jun-00 247 0878887186 -34187 3 Jun-00 350 286 255 252
Jul-00 -156 24260079771 12301 -165 Jul-00 344 293 258 248
Aug-00 621 75396102385 45179 559 Aug-00 366 315 270 262
Sep-00 -528 09222855204 04031 -385 Sep-00 346 318 271 252
Oct-00 -042 299852918 44133 -131 Oct-00 345 327 283 248
Nov-00 -788 5315579778 110553 -68 Nov-00 318 345 314 231
Dec-00 049 -25942802121 -17463 193 Dec-00 319 336 308 236
1-Jan 355 -00863561154 -04261 284 Jan-01 331 335 307 243
1-Feb -912 16209515233 74179 -716 Feb-01 300 341 330 225
1-Mar -633 48299554873 94097 -52 Mar-01 281 357 361 213
1-Apr 777 -43323517245 -65179 61 Apr-01 303 342 337 227
1-May 067 24991627761 11086 031 May-01 305 350 341 227
1-Jun -243 -01569851257 00543 -165 Jun-01 298 350 341 223
1-Jul -098 -21829671963 -05079 -093 Jul-01 295 342 340 221
1-Aug -626 -26070979092 17884 -404 Aug-01 276 333 346 212
1-Sep -808 10636654952 60561 -685 Sep-01 254 337 367 198
1-Oct 191 09408124501 22528 233 Oct-01 259 340 375 203
1-Nov 767 -16137664028 -837 519 Nov-01 279 334 344 213
1-Dec 088 07970479005 -2992 094 Dec-01 281 337 333 215
2-Jan -146 01132698972 -26759 -115 Jan-02 277 338 324 213
2-Feb -193 -02410246265 -26221 -106 Feb-02 272 337 316 210
2-Mar 376 -64656658879 -37678 312 Mar-02 282 315 304 217
2-Apr -606 01559405489 -06737 -3 Apr-02 265 315 302 210
2-May -074 19425675286 49554 -043 May-02 263 322 317 209
2-Jun -712 46154392532 59609 -498 Jun-02 244 336 336 199
2-Jul -78 -09755577412 44704 -592 Jul-02 225 333 351 187
2-Aug 066 36669673432 29178 074 Aug-02 227 345 361 189
2-Sep -1087 42995914132 68228 -728 Sep-02 202 360 386 175
2-Oct 88 -18586716944 -39428 521 Oct-02 220 354 370 184
2-Nov 589 -06691963741 -43217 423 Nov-02 233 351 354 192
2-Dec -587 10504712371 65168 -333 Dec-02 219 388 377 185
3-Jan -262 79413180181 78029 -186 Jan-03 213 419 407 182
3-Feb -15 5839796145 24675 -082 Feb-03 210 443 417 180
3-Mar 097 -4822187841 -49263 039 Mar-03 212 422 396 181
3-Apr 824 08044165566 01717 619 Apr-03 230 425 397 192
3-May 527 86017617168 75621 492 May-03 242 462 427 202
3-Jun 128 -16232843116 -23723 11 Jun-03 245 454 417 204
3-Jul 176 -58470688666 -38819 084 Jul-03 249 428 401 206
3-Aug 195 -01285241001 24459 191 Aug-03 254 427 411 210
3-Sep -106 62607424571 26964 031 Sep-03 251 454 422 210
3-Oct 566 09634730462 79884 431 Oct-03 266 458 455 219
3-Nov 088 23264834944 02951 12 Nov-03 268 469 457 222
3-Dec 524 14110879536 8856 41 Dec-03 282 476 497 231
4-Jan 184 19478633231 26613 172 Jan-04 287 485 510 235
4-Feb 139 52879779623 57235 144 Feb-04 291 511 540 239
4-Mar -151 2268957551 -03792 -05 Mar-04 287 522 538 237
4-Apr -157 -56830338449 -105019 -233 Apr-04 282 493 481 232
4-May 137 -16566072328 -32214 087 May-04 286 484 466 234
4-Jun 194 -17215338796 -23435 168 Jun-04 292 476 455 238
4-Jul -331 -06069797015 -19673 -258 Jul-04 282 473 446 232
4-Aug 04 -05707405134 -31134 082 Aug-04 283 470 432 234
4-Sep 108 70162697766 75979 145 Sep-04 286 503 465 237
4-Oct 153 34033420009 3203 17 Oct-04 291 521 480 241
4-Nov 405 45583596598 79681 368 Nov-04 302 544 518 250
4-Dec 34 01240939032 07905 307 Dec-04 313 545 522 257
5-Jan -244 16755564551 -35158 -181 Jan-05 305 554 504 253
5-Feb 21 -20025648058 07235 196 Feb-05 311 543 507 258
5-Mar -177 -10751895082 -32131 -158 Mar-05 306 537 491 254
5-Apr -19 -2390258099 -3307 -143 Apr-05 300 524 475 250
5-May 318 08685813036 14103 272 May-05 310 529 481 257
5-Jun 014 2223478206 2443 083 Jun-05 310 541 493 259
5-Jul 372 -21671781188 16173 293 Jul-05 322 529 501 267
5-Aug -091 49286219575 23044 002 Aug-05 319 555 513 267
5-Sep 081 37034231946 44919 108 Sep-05 321 576 536 270
5-Oct -167 -41709576663 -50465 -191 Oct-05 316 552 509 264
5-Nov 378 22186228209 731 307 Nov-05 328 564 546 272
5-Dec 003 15087373486 26914 097 Dec-05 328 572 561 275
6-Jan 265 05184116785 49735 32 Jan-06 337 575 588 284
6-Feb 027 -12693666599 -08661 013 Feb-06 338 568 583 284
6-Mar 125 20763323239 66529 136 Mar-06 342 580 622 288
6-Apr 134 -11401031738 110633 149 Apr-06 346 573 691 292
6-May -288 -38328436628 -15079 -283 May-06 336 551 681 284
6-Jun 014 -17992981531 -41286 014 Jun-06 337 541 652 285
6-Jul 062 -32543371611 -14002 038 Jul-06 339 524 643 286
6-Aug 238 -01076272465 29098 232 Aug-06 347 523 662 292
6-Sep 258 07974403785 -03827 16 Sep-06 356 527 659 297
6-Oct 326 -29512764216 -00218 309 Oct-06 368 512 659 306
6-Nov 19 03172013357 58364 222 Nov-06 375 513 698 313
6-Dec 14 25165243518 03787 117 Dec-06 380 526 700 317
7-Jan 151 -10891073316 07036 127 Jan-07 386 520 705 321
7-Feb -196 -0242828355 -13437 -066 Feb-07 378 519 696 318
7-Mar 112 -24787732727 -10187 115 Mar-07 382 506 689 322
7-Apr 443 02879881174 68079 345 Apr-07 399 508 736 333
7-May 349 04724656451 33768 267 May-07 413 510 761 342
7-Jun -166 06726351642 29473 -111 Jun-07 406 514 783 338
7-Jul -31 -10308231752 -62002 -209 Jul-07 394 508 734 331
7-Aug 15 -48378452877 -4152 085 Aug-07 400 484 704 334
7-Sep 374 50760632525 70341 364 Sep-07 415 508 753 346
7-Oct 159 36478459472 64209 235 2672 Oct-07 421 527 802 354
7-Nov -418 -09519733939 -29049 -338 Nov-07 404 522 779 342
7-Dec -069 -00407441673 00631 -06 Dec-07 401 522 779 340
8-Jan -6 38885050267 87377 -527 Jan-08 377 542 847 322
8-Feb -325 79938792923 97517 -138 Feb-08 364 585 930 318
8-Mar -043 -01164410281 -17484 -069 Mar-08 363 585 913 316
8-Apr 487 -11768609649 -73215 412 Apr-08 381 578 847 329
8-May 13 26727320318 02045 143 May-08 385 593 848 334
8-Jun -843 38796643349 38908 -664 Jun-08 353 616 881 311
8-Jul -084 -111000927524 -63133 -116 Jul-08 350 548 826 308
8-Aug 145 -81389596386 09693 032 Aug-08 355 503 834 309
8-Sep -891 2350077992 4926 -863 Sep-08 323 515 875 282
8-Oct -1679 231353875038 118043 -1488 Oct-08 269 634 978 240
8-Nov -718 91409930423 52566 -464 Nov-08 250 692 1029 229
8-Dec 106 39012647249 17001 298 Dec-08 252 719 1047 236
9-Jan -843 36085657209 -01782 -629 Jan-09 231 745 1045 221
9-Feb -1065 17480110926 0841 -723 Feb-09 207 758 1054 205
9-Mar 876 -40891209192 -17399 626 Mar-09 225 727 1035 218
9-Apr 957 -52452980511 -24793 785 Apr-09 246 689 1010 235
9-May 559 -175764056892 24393 525 May-09 260 568 1034 247
9-Jun 02 26344903362 -3873 018 Jun-09 260 583 994 248
9-Jul 756 29911557926 15775 638 Jul-09 280 600 1010 264
9-Aug 361 66647387555 02737 292 Aug-09 290 640 1013 271
9-Sep 373 19908108013 31657 353 Sep-09 301 653 1045 281
9-Oct -186 -1135758063 -18836 -156 Oct-09 295 646 1025 276
9-Nov 6 429598654 65618 406 Nov-09 313 673 1092 288
9-Dec 193 -3538041182 -30108 161 Dec-09 319 649 1060 292
10-Jan -36 -22840646395 -587 -256 Jan-10 308 635 997 285
10-Feb 31 13842186803 10589 206 Feb-10 317 643 1008 291
10-Mar 603 38205356429 32922 477 Mar-10 336 668 1041 304
10-Apr 158 14253968325 03791 14 Apr-10 342 678 1045 309
10-May -799 -05569215148 17471 -621 May-10 314 674 1063 290
10-Jun -523 -23229482293 07896 -318 Jun-10 298 658 1072 280
10-Jul 701 -52850060701 -35575 569 Jul-10 319 623 1034 296
10-Aug -451 76993453056 43121 -284 Aug-10 305 671 1078 288
10-Sep 892 05035470246 12552 702 Sep-10 332 675 1092 308
10-Oct 38 35726262618 52271 293 Oct-10 344 699 1149 317
10-Nov 001 -46572458071 -67101 -044 Nov-10 344 666 1072 316
10-Dec 668 71205616987 60114 502 Dec-10 367 714 1136 332
11-Jan 237 14260916813 02413 151 Jan-11 376 724 1139 337
11-Feb 343 -08196213636 14822 271 Feb-11 389 718 1156 346
11-Mar 004 -25144800567 -53504 026 Mar-11 389 700 1094 347
11-Apr 296 51621261523 44419 292 Apr-11 401 736 1142 357
11-May -113 -18535770592 -51957 -088 May-11 396 722 1083 354
11-Jun -167 08676483656 -46402 -14 Jun-11 389 729 1033 349
11-Jul -203 93387304437 48149 -126 Jul-11 382 797 1083 344
11-Aug -543 3189583693 00543 -469 Aug-11 361 822 1083 328
11-Sep -703 -41599527992 34989 -619 Sep-11 335 788 1121 308
11-Oct 1093 -13852548076 -6243 834 Oct-11 372 777 1051 333
11-Nov -022 39284953285 -00578 -096 Nov-11 371 808 1050 330
11-Dec 102 01889893545 02082 061 Dec-11 375 809 1053 332
12-Jan 448 -01521632453 -04526 426 Jan-12 392 808 1048 346
12-Feb 432 -22430032837 14221 342 Feb-12 409 790 1063 358
12-Mar 329 -12258940456 -21399 158 Mar-12 422 780 1040 364
12-Apr -063 13756177692 -18216 -038 Apr-12 420 791 1021 363
12-May -601 43616823461 38067 -528 May-12 394 825 1060 343
12-Jun 412 -61107318666 -83896 324 Jun-12 411 775 971 355
12-Jul 139 -2662867044 20145 115 Jul-12 416 754 991 359
12-Aug 225 -29540623033 -22929 186 Aug-12 426 732 968 365
12-Sep 258 -47724948882 -20234 22 Sep-12 437 697 948 373
12-Oct -185 -18050840884 -36659 -098 Oct-12 429 684 914 370
12-Nov 058 -03984415062 -0944 079 Nov-12 431 682 905 373
12-Dec 091 -17220762656 24366 124 Dec-12 435 670 927 377
13-Jan 518 -04335912154 32593 387 Jan-13 458 667 957 392
13-Feb 136 -29598734504 01523 08 Feb-13 464 647 959 395
13-Mar 375 -04786782014 2166 255 Mar-13 481 644 979 405
13-Apr 193 11854540053 29259 181 Apr-13 490 652 1008 412
13-May 234 -43222576245 -06784 082 May-13 502 624 1001 416
13-Jun -134 06875789801 10553 -177 Jun-13 495 628 1012 408
13-Jul 509 06412005306 -19554 423 Jul-13 520 632 992 426
13-Aug -29 11512128942 -11474 -214 Aug-13 505 639 981 417
13-Sep 314 -19925877399 -05148 361 Sep-13 521 626 976 432
13-Oct 46 -07538953205 -06933 349 Oct-13 545 622 969 447
13-Nov 305 27584740935 46402 189 Nov-13 562 639 1014 455
13-Dec 253 19377872096 15067 18 Dec-13 576 651 1029 463
14-Jan -346 -08961192857 -51141 -251 Jan-14 556 645 976 452
14-Feb 457 -00139276726 -05865 399 Feb-14 581 645 971 470
14-Mar 084 -34260446582 -18865 037 Mar-14 586 623 952 471
14-Apr 074 22210329784 03199 043 Apr-14 591 637 955 473
14-May 235 -07288421342 07134 197 May-14 605 632 962 483
14-Jun 207 05841054246 00135 195 Jun-14 617 636 962 492
14-Jul -138 -00888949644 03097 -153 Jul-14 609 636 965 485
14-Aug 4 18791535569 48657 313 Aug-14 633 648 1012 500
14-Sep -14 69028951277 63915 -221 Sep-14 624 692 1077 489
14-Oct 244 21563513841 15927 194 Oct-14 639 707 1094 498
14-Nov 269 72204527611 104647 19 Nov-14 657 758 1209 508 LTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98)
14-Dec -025 76468641712 47745 -044 Dec-14 655 816 1266 506 Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02)
15-Jan -3 54094515689 113573 -159 Jan-15 635 860 1410 497 Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09)
15-Feb 575 -50846010492 -16603 45 Feb-15 672 817 1387 520
15-Mar -158 65245129876 57568 -083 Mar-15 661 870 1467 516
15-Apr 096 -88441663253 -51219 09 Apr-15 667 793 1392 520
15-May 129 40875447394 08884 073 May-15 676 825 1404 524
15-Jun -194 -66047202646 -62159 -171 Jun-15 663 771 1317 515
15-Jul 21 80060563143 34205 126 Jul-15 677 833 1362 522
15-Aug -603 -10026780942 -24342 -522 Aug-15 636 824 1329 494
15-Sep -247 36089130828 34355 -247 Sep-15 620 854 1374 482
15-Oct 844 -16993598229 -58073 637 Oct-15 673 839 1294 513
15-Nov 03 48441920313 30487 01 Nov-15 675 880 1334 513
15-Dec -158 11998205926 -10345 -173 Dec-15 664 891 1320 504
16-Jan -496 31480723033 48626 -453 Jan-16 631 919 1384 482
16-Feb -013 33572073647 44379 -002 Feb-16 630 950 1446 481
16-Mar 678 -61786855584 -39621 601 Mar-16 673 891 1388 510
16-Apr 039 -31282642584 09914 082 Apr-16 676 863 1402 515
16-May 18 -08911812015 -5253 107 May-16 688 855 1328 520
16-Jun 026 65324823204 94059 03 Jun-16 690 911 1453 522
16-Jul 369 21567955023 02767 348 Jul-16 715 931 1457 540
16-Aug 014 -15149 -44038 024 Aug-16 716 917 1393 541
16-Sep 002 10335 0967 025 Sep-16 716 926 1407 542
-41363
Correllation 100 -022 -015 097
skew -04 02 01 -08
Kurt 198 469 -028 186

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 2

Background amp Review Crisis Risk OffsetSM (CROSM) Class

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 3

Background

bull At its September 28 2016 meeting the RISIC approved a 8 allocation to a CROSM class

bull CROSM rationale produce appreciation during a growth crisis

bull Key features of the CROSM class In aggregate high-confidence of negative conditional crisis correlation Relatively high volatility must be gt= to the volatility of the Total Portfolio Responsive and complementary strategies

Duration first responder during a flight-to-quality a crisis Systematic trend following (STF) performs well when crisis is confirmed

Because of low cross-correlations individual components must exhibit higher isolated volatilities than the CRO portfolio volatility target

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 4

CROSM Implementation Considerations

bull All underlying strategiescomponent portfolios will have high liquiditymarketability

bull All-in costs will be reasonable (likely in the 40bp ndash 100bp range)

bull Given highly-volatile components there should be continual oversight

bull The systematic trend following strategy component will bull employ long and short positionsbull will use derivatives leverage to establish volatility levels

bull Managers are not seeking ldquoalphardquo they are seeking risk capturebull Duration managers capturing interest rate riskbull STF managers capturing trendmomentum risks across dozens of markets

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 5

CROSM Implementation Considerations (Platform Manager)

bull Act as fiduciary to the plan

bull Key role gathering and accounting for all long-short positions across all component managers

bull Reconciling manager position data with primary broker position data

bull Provide account administrative functions very similar to RISIC custodian function

bull Netting all positions and providing risk analyticscharacteristics of aggregate portfolio

bull Monitoring and managing risk levels per client directionguidelinesbull Re-setting manager account levels (ie rebalancing among managers)bull Directing managers to adjust collateral levels

bull Provide best-practices user-interfaces to asset-owners such as RISIC

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 6

CROSM Class Management Diagram

bull Within this construct the asset-owner (ie RISIC)bull Searches for and selects platform managerbull Searches for and selects component managers (funds)bull Determines level of guideline authority to assign to platform manager

PlatformManager

RIA and Fiduciary

BrokersTrade Execution Admin - NAV Calculations

SubscriptionsRedemptions

Trade Reconciliation

(vetted by platform manager)

PlatformManager

Client CustodianCash Safekeeping

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 7

Systematic Trend Following Benchmark Review

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 8

bull Momentum and Trend Following are somewhat interchangeable terms

bull That which has done well recently will continue to do well

bull That which has done poorly recently will continue to do poorly

bull Buy what is going up sell what is going down

Ex if SampP 500 has a positive 1-year return buygo long Ex if oil has a negative 1-year return sellshort

bull This results in a volatile yet low correlation return vs risky assets (eg equities) over a full market cycle

Often a positive correlation during strong (extended) bull markets and a negative correlation during major bear markets

Description ndash What is Systematic Trend Following

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 9

bull Trend horizon or lookback period = the length of time that the signal is ldquolooking backrdquo to see if the total return index is higher (lower) today than 30 days 3 months 1 year ago etc

bull Moving average (MA) crossover is a methodology to identify a trend - if short term MA is above longer term MA = Uptrend (buy market)- if short term MA is below longer term MA = Downtrend (sell market)

bull The trend horizon of a moving average is half of its moving average ndash this makes sense

Trend Following Terminology

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Example The average lookback of an equally weighted moving average is total days in the moving average divided by two

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 10

bull Manage long and short positions according to systematic signals

bull Implemented in futures and forwards (currency) markets (see Appendix)

bull Investable universe includes liquid markets across the globe Equities = typically broad indices such as SampP 500 Nikkei 225 etc Fixed Income = typically sovereign bondsrates such as US 10-year Treasury Currencies = typically major currencies such as JPY GBP EUR AUD CAD CHF Commodities = energy metals and agriculture components

bull Strategy implementation volatility is customizable (range anywhere from roughly 5-30 (capable of offsetting equity asymp 18-20)

bull Systematic = rules-based implementation

bull Related terms = managed futures CTAs (commodity trading advisors)

How do systematic trend following managers invest

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 11

Basic Trend Following Example

bull Single Asset Example 21 day average price gt 252 day average price = long position 21 day average price lt 252 day average price = short position

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 12

bull The RISICrsquos Trend Following allocation and corresponding managers should be compiled based on assessing the following criteria

Trend Horizons Short asymp lt1 month Medium asymp 1-11 months Long asymp12+ months

Systematic implementation = quantitatively-oriented firmso Graduate (PhD Masters) backgrounds in mathematics physics computer scienceo Straight forward strategy design (ie humility)

Focus on global futures markets (ie utilize forwards on limited basis)

Strong focus on risk management and diversification

Target gt15 annual standard deviationo Required in order to meaningfully impact portfolio

RISIC Mandate ndash Trend Following Allocation

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 13

Why medium-term trends

o Trend Horizons Short asymp lt1 month | Medium asymp 1-11 months | Long asymp12+ months

o Medium to long-term trends provide most robust return patterns - whyo Short term trends are too short (risk getting whipsawed in choppy markets)o Long term trends are too long (longer time to turn lower hit ratios)

o The average of all trend horizons traded is the horizon of the strategy

Using a larger number of moving average signals reduces the dependency on individual data points and leads to an increased robustness of the strategy vs more concentrated strategies shorter drawdown periods

What length of trend is best How many

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 14

bull Benchmarking Trend Following strategies is imperfectbull Primarily due to different volatility targets markets traded and trend horizons (lookback)

bull Benchmark characteristicsbull Construction based on consistently applied tradingrisk-management rulesbull Inclusive of markets traded by managers (rates currency commodities equities)bull Broad scalable investible published available at low cost as a simple option bull Comparable to the strategies run by managers that will be sourced

bull Institutional investors track several major benchmarks bull MLM 3X IndexTM (Investable rules-based)bull Credit Suisse Managed Futures Liquid IndexTM 15 Target Volatility (Investable rules-based)bull Societe Generale Trend IndexTM (Uninvestable 10 largest trend managers)

Trend Following Benchmarks

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 15

Investable Trend Following Benchmark Comparisons

Source Mount Lucas Management Credit Suisse

Several distinctions between indices can produce different performance behaviors

Selected Investable STF Benchmark Characteristics

MLM Index 3X trade (with interest on cash)

Credit Suisse Managed Futures Liquid Indextrade

15 Target VolBasic trend signal Time-series momentum Moving Average Crossover

of look-back periods utilized 1 16Range of look-back periods only 12-months 1-month to 9-months

Average look-back period 12-months 5 monthsMarkets traded

Number of markets 22 31

Major market segmentsFixed Income (5)

Currencies (6) Commodities (11)

Fixed Income (4) Currencies (5)

Commodities (17) (in 4 aggregated contracts)

Equities (5)Contracts traded 22 18Trading Frequency Monthly Daily

Volatility Framework

Leveraged to set volatility at 3-times non-levered index volatility Volatility is not

bounded but results from construction

Leveraged to target volatility at an expected forward-looking standard deviation of 15

(within a range of variation)SampP 500

1995-2016 Volatility

Index Volatility 1995-2016 141 147 149Inclusion of return on cash Yes YesYear of Inception Index 1970 1995

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 16

The Credit Suisse MF Liquid Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLMtrade 3x Index

Several years where indices diverge particularly in more recent calendar years but both provided major offset in severe down markets-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Annu

al R

etur

ns -

Calendar Year Returns

MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol 7030 Portfolio

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 17

The Credit Suisse MF Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLM 3x Index

CSMF IndexTM

15 volhas produced a similar but more consistent return pattern versus MLM 3X IndexTM

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

Growth of $1 ndash Index Comparisons

MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol

SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio

Returns to systematic trend following are episodic with long periods of little going on

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 18

The Credit Suisse MF Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLM 3x Index

Comparative Performance Statistics

MLM 3x and Credit Suisse 15 Vol exhibit similar statistical characteristics

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Periods Ending 93020161 Year 85 124 07 24 162 01 125 105 12 154 125 12

3 Years 139 145 10 130 156 08 79 90 09 112 108 105 Years 33 129 03 46 138 03 120 92 13 164 111 15

10 Years 58 163 03 79 144 05 62 124 04 72 153 0420 Years 98 141 05 117 147 06 71 121 04 79 154 04

Statistical MeasuresLargest Drawdown - period

Largest Drawdown - -5095Largest Drawdown - of months 16

Recovery PeriodRecovery Duration 37

Crisis Period ReturnsLTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98) -100

Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02) -206Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09) -388

SampP 500

Nov-07 - Feb-09

Mar-09 - Mar-12

113 127 -145

Jun-09 - Jul-11 Dec-12 - Nov-14 Mar-09 - Apr-1126 24

326 277 -309

121 143 -88

26

-2509 -277 -42163 21 16

MLM 3x Credit Suisse 15 Vol 7030

Mar-09 - May-09 Mar-11 - Nov-12 Nov-07 - Feb-09

Data

Growth of $1 - Selected Indices

SampP 500 Index3466934700347313475934790348203485134881349123494334973350043503435065350963512535156351863521735247352783530935339353703540035431354623549035521355513558235612356433567435704357353576535796358273585535886359163594735977360083603936069361003613036161361923622036251362813631236342363733640436434364653649536526365573658636617366473667836708367393677036800368313686136892369233695136982370123704337073371043713537165371963722637257372883731637347373773740837438374693750037530375613759137622376533768137712377423777337803378343786537895379263795637987380183804738078381083813938169382003823138261382923832238353383843841238443384733850438534385653859638626386573868738718387493877738808388383886938899389303896138991390223905239083391143914239173392033923439264392953932639356393873941739448394793950839539395693960039630396613969239722397533978339814398453987339904399343996539995400264005740087401184014840179402104023840269402994033040360403914042240452404834051340544405754060340634406644069540725407564078740817408484087840909409404096941000410304106141091411224115341183412144124441275413064133441365413954142641456414874151841548415794160941640416714169941730417604179141821418524188341913419444197442005420364206442095421254215642186422174224842278423094233942370424014243042461424914252242552425834261411025910659101109735444795000011129616668719730211748013354685194120205672645138931241965009769575412450699222939992129761187301480581292940470271952513497005569168912137574977766538731422525270106010514357547551179966144953800076712951470846209378406315087940415803691151452745893837461447585345253298514781293960381431561348081035090416044412880716591725737049449876516915674558707691797290421862691918113092871532211736864475451223718405552846356619195264510146997352040123602015828222025174407362882207917646405505612193115334285272921198652821201449221801504468230752256164903450843522812083338791482244568345475183512570902447635128825968685623562435255220242308371642655821841460915226276701299414293224770902915189862391787177920535525862394754854749274296558769989482900960405551408930222205505034578292822949138280023045358671038112431632140516072873308856219998935533259977402088765131582661071435956314279060321859173056678140690402232501658669961042331614423409612513511465129484386633351895799842701327215449692256753592171206721594134840468533992741341262389290458933496915703059332534423638180916072365613461119509613463090703723995334485457227683547317680031981420853192366641381297733056956571503342300421621321822428140493269215101303270095962331173053020056052787829788316686907052949639118337536127649917095296064254158037939961412590124564646146627887871187545059281332844539954552772253850096712227187493507898459282097432637954442650023282200944263041310991265712443127696486875822525637361608997226743065681956152020960944423275221988055075325237232831515192618932191643052508121921342220045324092102208674464422621226000986067275229750234673192224185807204046941244953855362587424926504321696896254125711559699925143197901716707265663029029538712680008636849986528204410894209262872337205466271291226269262225212868287525963656228232554118060267286193401094776962917455530760156628208877526919953283217130370276322862758753782752629065589627156293024274600705612312709993712960313050798698663641131148654713355772305973235249293743001597437795571630970482363174709310138410384831563216755592511472831874831166196183321330172986423731596395909755043279073967514378332800576897046323336697921848180483376070062371705534182709381513519346407576872258013364310386583369433690204211245862338990834773555873470588166411665135601293411050863367618955762511183746037159219988637984816794490683385583875280874937802643132536975382260327356213913991944598580941941312634650714166406268449155123173936741272313143239957923913978401414523502683611964211144263762814340351184335375292400727611634612043766839549365352836444172640109791362874626977573238054662131138102385493727388428953529966061695843935003143467775993551068904805874132346686653876708269156779646908124983132286826009252479534890663612311955100993806420657318827379658224668999566581152461698228251029425993071592102619260450577352868252801406410007451229025371814087202301080181827526562954800904455345831320889587226666319253827562601433077606897703477631730127115322853364345378037681734175020350106773314444362241332432979989220961107431888864653504814304506768576317473316687723333249734427218568199134344306612900559553673062946423169376011453825339853889086466915490138906421015022561400580510770672323960539509989637438943985001728101381534221061930223608169128582674335451483884331213721163310728886371297675144528233750849114310024239188871546311134088183079711177142226843030336747419608139192456253943896900269896410638545256101574163464210351613742571421550845248436697642268570534286187358866019543110472455474422435027777548192424575622164251887746378506256857133481177002414892834904637185615003550194056957583948495214565943523245204209873500485850532877871689719521196102368607855451711230775638156179884233142952576012353042414745560823256271471758149528790830782586379848326737555907190592043554660460095709565786617116196907537966085999933902138963294399312582256240827772220609663931039698627927656507846665210166548665770485471663522057973709076671745763071973566611321800154363466747904894358454676089528674956696629733918186625367689583304685437636079014314129056203678626605700767272691026912224674745090999929526640841185621305963114554628144894630325057071283167306109594071613675686034214884936878483828307528568963678862611273715084386126416237160855042669932271622872136784661MLM Index 3X 34669347003473134759347903482034851348813491234943349733500435034350653509635125351563518635217352473527835309353393537035400354313546235490355213555135582356123564335674357043573535765357963582735855358863591635947359773600836039360693610036130361613619236220362513628136312363423637336404364343646536495365263655736586366173664736678367083673936770368003683136861368923692336951369823701237043370733710437135371653719637226372573728837316373473737737408374383746937500375303756137591376223765337681377123774237773378033783437865378953792637956379873801838047380783810838139381693820038231382613829238322383533838438412384433847338504385343856538596386263865738687387183874938777388083883838869388993893038961389913902239052390833911439142391733920339234392643929539326393563938739417394483947939508395393956939600396303966139692397223975339783398143984539873399043993439965399954002640057400874011840148401794021040238402694029940330403604039140422404524048340513405444057540603406344066440695407254075640787408174084840878409094094040969410004103041061410914112241153411834121441244412754130641334413654139541426414564148741518415484157941609416404167141699417304176041791418214185241883419134194441974420054203642064420954212542156421864221742248422784230942339423704240142430424614249142522425524258342614110148884646900895103340591859474421072408712997243110940677971075865114262418660692781160092612677171142959157168208311013103426890634110783733289700331137038224450235111679226409959909121850894347440231242433353496411812252167585248812126896699822459641328653866929275813351606121318145134081055440927281296797928471894713619392434367088143576578138179231509218792763344715752141625393705159741476392170381624588692915244715961946131990337158166634405606991596268567466747615854045132050956160762782421028591674471548787969116334608788312481167136836594916961724103293485745617540016237536971184317397396999281833207803473638519081906293617161199528158418133362015627484786143521495947913924032218083936204276442354434329164940125568449301383946244569562533616392392098972026799324768457163719559259133315331014382621527584284674826443486642972855246776974677741692522251779160873425363596849993599255718459950524222543332082009850425755097037285197263905469237608912593318215612296269111264944554352772336103456553228413595450075206282512675271448142755300091516830227662953436071924283321999650090952858120804002444629274590427040774314817804441657153177213234675698932724829006272378344643433993104513357024175828066833541251801571748340849392335919133573122662643302134183224213506169350375186287367593498251493609266634218858110597834333267389762584413368122399944071733998101148189912334494512142795573371605936289772133754249508694474336728934548908533149571666931522831544831262756059321576109118041663364182590872654433313630471808207345352304220459553602010422381642353506087423034153511404375039457388026730482139434188411671450271744330063747749886421923848037816734253178733277496646190270333054864454404709212399464278353529314546427285481394055114540367249408701545841124640575002469076108389668847569518484822714849610768837257251060571175497652219113860765338492514839465369294843558030123659847601745376581057473128124445944394704277905596145950343427344960032520567863524614445442972190172910554497265868140495541039832423297543007691886491815371693301544380252432959673518953528883825581519765406434421783125752892673579868639554995535038222757554936841166908551543447906696125637801167088788657228607789353605575252875755654567950807540961575797433537416528573133681365925715511663633801610754124923718312337523635162123404735230715880167218252724277206795183511682380451475985133054437969212552622290028893799520491768101300335192278665029281450635738492353615078156340236386551021488843485043513646773187677665083519832107603248375870074608462508314598385507925268571318619042852184159214284254521628972131248554191254093339198585232375325283725845509247309335557767157307764609593111186249949546161219094094592654773180599687912503152135379287295149766029792115163411843563236063692083157713540857190831538127088974503174200586004758054979499215967270571947536747268892087788668714567833349511720355827928642302366600225106747576396402285420570113652974281025352986455580729791857567329116090210022649469842354643846346355313413052864342027491780147668002375855000886775240605615865267375078330068803658099901409815496233192816727965167131078552540018674691151011573536987953442583287466625072738788234713691521499241957238694169177803971793642853250548699884060217257537360129583255957972237039097739091728638025868266767966835670147050482209445615305849787895714812564137769813515439796780750502764271417809031126182080138078000781649011678968109588554389780000442351743847907302670362232982521940949887469774792464073246567541607708880763873188239184893966696953342110148546843727482284168568164592314229058669907460484101416670028005841815364726036177634292644162067518287266517983125485561662362591028781749627913830961134966319400177769446392149927453023662647807316842243621755084290590616389060372158093465128667668604236454503711708577364536047495606406623250136877504976370927279553024363244932772003528636143498551355266355779990150757647521485590334586922192146698701170714589328632549758205028463395178161839371290312886033501192088568816590408878332148698689561611674479293629886653179825347924837850757708360031927344283254956769909807824201775560706285394650126758993839434877515595628800987149600684889065832057726926918696888484690189495394480839779789087039133391421863001611292771298553107031643975291118372363297819930836093202313829167348572263920392620931197582674Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol3466934700347313475934790348203485134881349123494334973350043503435065350963512535156351863521735247352783530935339353703540035431354623549035521355513558235612356433567435704357353576535796358273585535886359163594735977360083603936069361003613036161361923622036251362813631236342363733640436434364653649536526365573658636617366473667836708367393677036800368313686136892369233695136982370123704337073371043713537165371963722637257372883731637347373773740837438374693750037530375613759137622376533768137712377423777337803378343786537895379263795637987380183804738078381083813938169382003823138261382923832238353383843841238443384733850438534385653859638626386573868738718387493877738808388383886938899389303896138991390223905239083391143914239173392033923439264392953932639356393873941739448394793950839539395693960039630396613969239722397533978339814398453987339904399343996539995400264005740087401184014840179402104023840269402994033040360403914042240452404834051340544405754060340634406644069540725407564078740817408484087840909409404096941000410304106141091411224115341183412144124441275413064133441365413954142641456414874151841548415794160941640416714169941730417604179141821418524188341913419444197442005420364206442095421254215642186422174224842278423094233942370424014243042461424914252242552425834261411018462101362837934799991085448004538323111929118787182351207652511407176612019125390204581117484546864171731138109225682759411830542971141973121282349239248191253561020678453113125047134317747138373303172500361331459748985528213803323105317908144737919185125151412776697511663614531058211188315137577152931888721415729437616425115318985323494783165982278309038621803231471549395617904050860922647176145960706541091733942085083835175478753683071291781330453112814217978309170999982178327747582607391891163979836075817798727619506824189722689263713871946922853862876201326619703110722104247709741140121084225371972662212855164715988862206722706401835322669441690595415238021656835493992409319476336215824715883382021251271921183062991962754716579502454626218979196217438257775040245115282671023723013445526347004714041855255795955077359592495813923487551426251544884444464257360170460037412686083540701638126872519870418432268999567132061262705837055829019925763194593147083265313757663309472813103200541033527419823254249551277010409615451362676529979786414226160056073535038263894797652999412548730262056363225800821930099183269664772640791342707517913393063628270088014648396313954310549318153084717264241954307157328397901933299419518611299136098849970540673374596302831080134120070774442652341385979728731753396520803376895345726418142448733666639557515736237492416134674511343543009042022533332642022114852532434638542450811315841698852292073039414153229354430189376200790483316853805490444573357411439819244935075011608249249360984302969547423856135399925536837040956933772726354401578979658723774972210786050840695295174214756416994515826385033964521149932298139713282327467319427164404503527264170307833354900940084206535718971410646261433761244217189272270611745540752200966779456751429607118284972013362131246351043335537376455539648008468581965376016632204691248114327415071871465643724717227545473136402847931445785433903947054319063502047815646472216278699063479607213661057945178227960527846352191618525558194503566656014366215072099607706301949091279752110903474678311307085914813726995314497449313263458100307501108068680081651265560301474542535683580046564785086503081795148954583264570743744560523185534007515884008061665413858330466678433295622111342960827866909373871666130868051874230552771652422845510701696432876208278608866200600401871004659472507041330465932874203479539697809804734914257004524104654454705380793625480346959025919015347688813432197833827357071618484301576055052128972793782966226803700147344207548094170970392760506973007753442576737939978018203711477063777852829118623665779019542537975168470879331063159292969340707904458913438647549674528465612369693250484829245469892748812978175263532882565884241246206833661953571965958747281414049210197798367540078193102939236528189951046893064884057110450275014424337105381618272956461035480834966252810098081586249346103444040903827289943765319962205110100628217884611012827363731696104489043958535041025208883265320710924810397674245105958862062210699973907685915891710079521394402054104113593977485571045082886122542310633415292259892107173767394075751033610606190315107818092913984761091714256162410911487792520462763107169501545471921136118889613764111388603444944021115574053252049810939037910685213114249390356399391083133347816519510328737942111374108260563452860941083193489388158411210933463883606105110348877333521050495950956824310526830835267162104791863989067431062821090868559510400777823450634102113172546186561060003146855022697107312284647369906353909062158296792111202812716948336196247350049135711396291183690494702807101941926996967356997999572105795140647295866841122666457979433169013834081008090404106009810012515188045546101181772608249919920326422666829806500597293140997560167322182769688378268213806910137938396615464102906867144372699764410705174233597071424363883869524017194325919595544845253305679622646217934274796239452751736962965375063369090821012347317827440610770514966463814109420569583346841208711039285353212664209478560323141025217416688541386837757319192514666752333325439139155359455648431403916156690523913166501323067976136168615008235161328539985817047137418197702979161294379107077740413338408429152194132004225939526151384230634300615614456614056202426138838285506816291402147282693308713284924859334293145344916066784191457470854495409713932867530051409140675983590670087030 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

Performance Stats

Performance stats (2)

Correlations

Annual Returns

Calendar Year Returns

MLM Index 3X1995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420150218999999999999970311015404060000000000000370000000000000007E-202110000000000000240000000000000001E-30151022600000000000001014599999999999999005-008-90000000000000011E-30379-96999999999999989E-299000000000000005E-2013400000000000001-017199999999999999-27999999999999997E-2025390999999999999998E-2Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015031303639999999999999901749999999999999902690000000000000252999999999999999E-297000000000000003E-2008013300000000000001031700573999999999999996E-2025011203439999999999999712E-271999999999999995E-2-72999999999999995E-2-01189999999999999901102310000000000000142000000000000003E-27030 Portfolio1995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420150265000000000000010145999999999999990218999999999999970196999999999999980182-55999999999999994E-2-88000000000000009E-2-0138000000000000010247011469000000000000006E-2015174999999999999997E-2-03070238999999999999990135000000000000012E-301350000000000000102280000000000000190999999999999998E-2-2E-3

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 19

The Credit Suisse MF Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLM 3x Index Correlations

bull Both MLM and Credit Suisse exhibit similar negative correlations with US equities

bull MLM and Credit Suisse indices are highly correlated with one another

Correlations ndash various periods ending 93016

SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM 7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099MLM Index 3X -054 -056 MLM Index 3X -023 -026

Credit Suisse Index -059 -055 080 Credit Suisse Index -021 -020 082

SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM 7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099MLM Index 3X -031 -033 MLM Index 3X -036 -036

Credit Suisse Index -027 -027 076 Credit Suisse Index -021 -021 066

1 Year Correlation 3 Year Correlation

10 Year Correlation5 Year Correlation

SampP 500 7030 MLM 7030 Portfolio 098MLM Index 3X -027 -026

Credit Suisse Index -018 -016 066

20 Year Correlation

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 20

Systematic Trend Following modeled with the MLM 3X IndexTM in the AL study Long history calculated back to pre-1970 PCA used data going back to 1970 Simple captures the beta captures big down markets reasonable for modeling However has only one lookback period (12 months) slow to respond to trends Investible but not inclusive of the full opportunity set (no equities)

Benchmark recommendation Credit Suisse Managed Futures Liquid IndexTM15 vol Diversified across 18 deep and liquid futures contracts in major markets Diversified across 16 lookback horizons from trading 30 days to 12 months Utilizes a moving average crossover method to determine the signal Equally risk weighted over 288 potentially different signals (long or short) Most comparable to the strategies that will be sourced

Recommended RISIC Mandate Benchmark

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 21

Due Diligence Plan Update Relating To STF and Platform Manager

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 22

Due Diligence Process Outline Platform Manager

bull Provide a short list of platform implementation platform managers

Draft DDQ prepared to be issued

bull Send DDQ to short list platform managers

bull Conduct a review of platform managers DDQ responses - rate proposals

PCA and Rhode Island investment staff

bull Conduct onsite due diligence at platform managers offices in NYC

PCA and Rhode Island investment staff

bull Platform manager recommendation

PCA memo to SIC SIC interview recommended platform manager

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 23

Due Diligence Process Outline STF Managers

bull Provide a short list of systematic trend following managers

bull Draft DDQ prepared to be issued

bull Send a DDQ to short list systematic trend following managers

bull Conduct a review of STF managers DDQ responses - rate proposals

bull PCA and Rhode Island investment staff

bull Systematic trend following managers recommendation

bull PCA memo to SIC

bull SIC interview recommended systematic trend following managers

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 24

Other Implementation Crisis Risk OffsetSM Class Managers

Other bull Platform manager to conduct operational due diligence at recommended STF

Managerrsquos office

bull STF Managers hired contracting other administration 1Q 2017

bull Fund long-duration Fixed Income and systematic trend following accounts pari passu

bull Primary source of funds ndash Equity HF portfolio redemptions

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 25

Appendix

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 26

Model Output Focus Portfolio Comparison of Trend IndicesFocus Portfolio

Line Strategic Class Trend

MLM 3x Index

TrendCS MF Index

1 US Equity 200 2002 Non-US Equity 200 2003 Private Growth 150 1504 Income Class 60 605 Crisis Risk Offset 80 806 Inflation Protection 100 1007 IG Fixed Income 115 1158 Absolute Return 65 659 Cash 30 30

10 Total 1000 1000

Asset Only Statistics11 Median Scenario Comp Return (22-year period) 73 7312 Average Scenario Standard Deviation (22-year period) 118 12113 Sharpe Ratio (22-year period) 041 04014 Sortino Ratio (22-year period) 074 074

15 Best Year Worst Year 298 -208

306 -210

16 Average 2-year Loss of Worst 10 -160 -164AssetLiability Statistics

17 Percent of Scenarios lt50 [during first 5-years] 75 7918 Median Funded Ratio [end of 5-years] 600 59919 Average Funded Ratio of Worst 10 [end of 5-years] 477 47620 Median Funded Ratio [end of 22-years] 994 99121 Average Funded Ratio of Worst 10 [end of 22-years] 671 66522 Median Avg Ann Employer Cntrbs Rate [during 22-yrs] 206 20623 Average of Yrs w Employer Cntrbs Rate gt30 [during 22-yrs] 44 47

bull For modeling purposes both indices have same volatility assumptions

bull Modeling the Focus Portfolio with the CS MF Index results in the same long-term return (line 11) and slightly higher risk (line 12)

bull Portfolio results are similar regardless of the trend following index used in modeling the total portfolio

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 27

Comparing Modeling of MLM 3x and CS MF IndexMLM 3x Index Credits Suisse MF Index

1970 1607 9491971 648 -5801972 278 12791973 9190 63231974 1458 51501975 -620 -20551976 851 14651977 374 15591978 -178 4531979 2107 31971980 -568 4861981 2839 18891982 1278 13801983 -1005 -11941984 1281 0881985 239 5561986 456 2281987 643 10851988 188 -10381989 809 0551990 657 3771991 -604 -7281992 -557 -12351993 481 14301994 549 -7851995 384 14781996 409 21071997 077 0061998 992 10741999 -564 -12982000 3782 0122001 043 0492002 -972 11652003 1191 39572004 992 0172005 456 1152006 -1329 24292007 -461 4192008 4324 42422009 -811 -3752010 1370 5092011 1740 -16162012 -1910 -22872013 -127 10762014 2995 28432015 1359 086

-4000

-2000

000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Annual Modeled Returns

$0

$500

$1000

$1500

$2000

$2500

Growth of $100

MLM 3x Credit Suisse Managed Futures

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 28

The Credit Suisse Managed Futures Indextrade is a systematic trend following strategy that trades a total of 18 futures contracts providing liquid and diversified exposure to market trends across asset classes geographies and time horizons The strategy tracks 16 time horizon signals to identify trends across various horizons ranging from shorter-term moving average (60 trading days) to longer-term moving average (360 trading days) The average length of moving average signal utilized is a 210 trading days moving average

bull Shortest signal compares the 60 (trading) day MA (moving average) versus 5 day MA

bull Longest signal compares the 360 (trading) day MA (moving average) versus 5 day MA

bull For each of the 18 different futures contracts (markets) total return index

- If average price in most recent 5 days is gt average price over 60 days =gt Buy the market (go long)

- If average price in most recent 5 days is lt average price over 60 days=gt Sell the market (go short)

bull Signals are equally weighted resulting in a portfolio of long and short exposures When signals align (strong trends) the index is more long or more short

Recommended Benchmark Index

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 29

The Credit Suisse Managed Futures Indextrade Markets Traded

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 30

bull Diversifies and balances risk across the four major futures market typesbull Rebalancing incorporates recent trailing volatility of each instrument traded

The Credit Suisse Managed Futures Indextrade Risk Allocation

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 31

Instruments Forwards

bull Agreement to buysell an asset at a future time for a specified price Long position = agree to buy at the future date Short position = agree to sell at the future date

bull Over-the-counter instrument (ie customized have counterparty risk)

bull Different than an option in that both buyer and seller have obligations

bull Essentially a contract that states Asset type and amount Future date of trade Future price of trade Settlement options (ie cash payment or delivery of asset)

bull Currency forwards can be more liquid than currency futures

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 32

Instruments Futures

bull Futures = analogous to forwards but exchange tradedstandardized Exchanges (eg CME Group) provide numerous services

o Guarantee contracts will be honored backed by exchange with is backed by all of the exchange members (de minimis counterparty risk)

o Facilitate transactionso Set margin requirementso Organize daily settlementmarking to marketo Arrange settlementdelivery procedures

bull Extremely liquid instruments

bull Vast majority of futures contracts do not lead to delivery

bull Regulated by the US Government Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 33

Futures Transaction Example

bull November crude oil contract (one contract = 1000 barrels of oil)

bull ldquoPricerdquo of contract = delivery price (ie futures are free) 1000 barrels $43 = $43000 of exposure (ie notional value)

o Longbuy position = agree to buy 1000 barrels in November $43barrelo Shortsell position = agree to sell 1000 barrels in November $43barrel

Initial margin = $3190 (ie money that must be deposited to trade)o Typically equal to roughly one-day maximum price fluctuationo Margin = embedded leverageo Exchanges require daily settlementmark to market

bull At contract expiration (or anytime while contract is traded) | longbuy ldquoSpotrdquo price = $50

o Gain = ($50-$43) x 1000 = $7000

ldquoSpotrdquo price = $40o Loss = ($40-$43) x 1000 = ($3000)

Gainslosses for shortsell positionare the opposite

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 34

Leverage in Trend Following Strategies

bull Futures contain embedded leverage

bull Trend Following strategies leverage asymp 0x-7x Averagefull-cycle leverage asymp 3x

bull Without leverage (ie 1x) strategy volatility may be asymp 6 (ie bond-like)

bull Leveragerisk oversight is key component of strategy selection

bull Leverage protections Futures have daily price limits and daily settlement

o Price limit = maximum change in contract priceo Exchanges will close out positions if failed settlement

Long and short positions partially offset leverage risks

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 35

CROSM Implementation Considerations (LongShort aspects)bull Long position ndash give up cash to buy a security (traditional)

bull Short position ndash sell an un-owned security receive cash liable for securityrsquos position

bull Because of the liability short positions require collateral as security collateral levels based on potential security movements not total value of positions

bull Minimum collateral requirements allow managers to apply leverage

bull Unlike typical leveraged situations collateral requirements re-set every day

bull Longshort portfolios contain many offsetting long and short positions itrsquos the net position that matters

bull Longshort portfolios utilize ldquoprimary brokersrdquo to effect these types of trades

bull In total across entire CROSM class hundreds of netted ls positions

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 36

DISCLOSURES This document is provided for informational purposes only It does not constitute an offer of securities of any of the issuers that may be described herein Informationcontained herein may have been provided by third parties including investment firms providing information on returns and assets under management and may not have beenindependently verified The past performance information contained in this report is not necessarily indicative of future results and there is no assurance that the investment in question willachieve comparable results or that the Firm will be able to implement its investment strategy or achieve its investment objectives The actual realized value of currently unrealizedinvestments (if any) will depend on a variety of factors including future operating results the value of the assets and market conditions at the time of disposition any related transactioncosts and the timing and manner of sale all of which may differ from the assumptions and circumstances on which any current unrealized valuations are based

Neither PCA nor PCArsquos officers employees or agents make any representation or warranty express or implied in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained inthis document or any oral information provided in connection herewith or any data subsequently generated herefrom and accept no responsibility obligation or liability (whether direct orindirect in contract tort or otherwise) in relation to any of such information PCA and PCArsquos officers employees and agents expressly disclaim any and all liability that may be based on thisdocument and any errors therein or omissions therefrom Neither PCA nor any of PCArsquos officers employees or agents make any representation of warranty express or implied that anytransaction has been or may be effected on the terms or in the manner stated in this document or as to the achievement or reasonableness of future projections management targetsestimates prospects or returns if any Any views or terms contained herein are preliminary only and are based on financial economic market and other conditions prevailing as of thedate of this document and are therefore subject to change

The information contained in this report may include forward-looking statements Forward-looking statements include a number of risks uncertainties and other factors beyond the control ofthe Firm which may result in material differences in actual results performance or other expectations The opinions estimates and analyses reflect PCArsquos current judgment which maychange in the future

Any tables graphs or charts relating to past performance included in this report are intended only to illustrate investment performance for the historical periods shown Such tables graphsand charts are not intended to predict future performance and should not be used as the basis for an investment decision

All trademarks or product names mentioned herein are the property of their respective owners Indices are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index The index dataprovided is on an ldquoas isrdquo basis In no event shall the index providers or its affiliates have any liability of any kind in connection with the index data or the portfolio described herein Copyingor redistributing the index data is strictly prohibited

The Russell indices are either registered trademarks or trade names of Frank Russell Company in the US andor other countries

The MSCI indices are trademarks and service marks of MSCI or its subsidiaries

Standard and Poorrsquos (SampP) is a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc SampP indices including the SampP 500 are a registered trademark of The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc

CBOE not SampP calculates and disseminates the BXM Index The CBOE has a business relationship with Standard amp Poors on the BXM CBOE and Chicago Board Options Exchange areregistered trademarks of the CBOE and SPX and CBOE SampP 500 BuyWrite Index BXM are servicemarks of the CBOE The methodology of the CBOE SampP 500 BuyWrite Index is owned by CBOEand may be covered by one or more patents or pending patent applications

The Barclays Capital indices (formerly known as the Lehman indices) are trademarks of Barclays Capital Inc

The Citigroup indices are trademarks of Citicorp or its affiliates

The Merrill Lynch indices are trademarks of Merrill Lynch amp Co or its affiliates

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MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15x 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol 7030 Portfolio
1995 0219 0228 0265 1995 0219 0313 0265
1996 0311 0264 0146 1996 0311 0364 0146
1997 0154 014 0219 1997 0154 0175 0219
1998 0406 0209 0197 1998 0406 0269 0197
1999 007 0066 0182 1999 007 0053 0182
2000 0211 0087 -0056 2000 0211 0097 -0056
2001 0004 007 -0088 2001 0004 008 -0088
2002 0151 0112 -0138 2002 0151 0133 -0138
2003 0226 0213 0247 2003 0226 0317 0247
2004 0146 0042 0114 2004 0146 005 0114
2005 005 0063 0069 2005 005 0074 0069
2006 -008 0188 0151 2006 -008 025 0151
2007 -0009 0095 0075 2007 -0009 0112 0075
2008 0379 023 -0307 2008 0379 0344 -0307
2009 -0097 0009 0239 2009 -0097 0012 0239
2010 0099 005 0135 2010 0099 0072 0135
2011 0134 -0048 0002 2011 0134 -0073 0002
2012 -0172 -008 0135 2012 -0172 -0119 0135
2013 -0028 0075 0228 2013 -0028 011 0228
2014 0253 0158 0091 2014 0253 0231 0091
2015 0091 0036 -0002 2015 0091 0042 -0002
Return 110 101 80 Return 110 131 80
StDev 153 93 146 StDev 153 134 146
Corr to 7030 -023 005 100 Corr to 7030 -023 004 100
1 Year Correlation 3 Year Correlation
SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM
7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099
MLM Index 3X -054 -056 MLM Index 3X -023 -026
Credit Suisse Index -059 -055 080 Credit Suisse Index -021 -020 082
5 Year Correlation 10 Year Correlation
SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM
7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099
MLM Index 3X -031 -033 MLM Index 3X -036 -036
Credit Suisse Index -027 -027 076 Credit Suisse Index -021 -021 066
20 Year Correlation
SampP 500 7030 MLM
7030 Portfolio 098
MLM Index 3X -027 -026
Credit Suisse Index -018 -016 066
Correlation to date Correlation to date
SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
SampP 500 Index 1 099 -054 -059 SampP 500 Index 1 099 -023 -021
7030 Portfolio 099 1 -056 -055 7030 Portfolio 099 1 -026 -02
MLM Index 3X -054 -056 1 08 MLM Index 3X -023 -026 1 082
Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -059 -055 08 1 Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -021 -02 082 1
Correlation to date Correlation to date
SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
5 5 5 5 10 Years 10 Years 10 Years 10 Years
SampP 500 Index 1 099 -031 -027 SampP 500 Index 1 099 -036 -021
7030 Portfolio 099 1 -033 -027 7030 Portfolio 099 1 -036 -021
MLM Index 3X -031 -033 1 076 MLM Index 3X -036 -036 1 066
Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -027 -027 076 1 Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -021 -021 066 1
Correlation to date
SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
5 5 5 5
SampP 500 Index 1 098 -027 -018
7030 Portfolio 098 1 -026 -016
MLM Index 3X -027 -026 1 066
Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -018 -016 066 1
MLM 3x Credit Suisse 15 Vol 7030 SampP 500
Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio
Periods Ending 9302016
1 Year 85 124 07 24 162 01 125 105 12 154 125 12
3 Years 139 145 10 130 156 08 79 90 09 112 108 10
5 Years 33 129 03 46 138 03 120 92 13 164 111 15 SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
10 Years 58 163 03 79 144 05 62 124 04 72 153 04 Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date
20 Years 98 141 05 117 147 06 71 121 04 79 154 04 Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g) Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g) Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g) Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g)
1 Year 1543 1246 122 1252 1052 116 846 1244 066 24 162 01
Statistical Measures 3 Years 1116 1083 102 792 897 087 1392 1446 095 130 156 08
Largest Drawdown - period Mar-09 - May-09 Mar-11 - Nov-12 Nov-07 - Feb-09 Nov-07 - Feb-09 5 Years 1637 1112 146 12 915 13 329 1288 025 46 138 03
Largest Drawdown - -2509 -277 -4216 -5095 10 Years 724 1525 041 621 1239 043 58 1627 03 79 144 05
Largest Drawdown - of months 3 21 16 16 20 Years 791 1535 036 711 1212 039 977 1408 053 117 147 06
Recovery Period Jun-09 - Jul-11 Dec-12 - Nov-14 Mar-09 - Apr-11 Mar-09 - Mar-12
Recovery Duration 26 24 26 37 00237 01617
01298 0156
Crisis Period Returns 00464 01383
LTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98) 121 143 -88 -100 00787 01439
Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02) 113 127 -145 -206 01172 01466
Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09) 326 277 -309 -388
MLM Credit Suisse 7030
Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio
Periods Ending 9302016
1 Year 85 124 07 14 90 01 125 105 12
3 Years 139 145 10 90 103 09 79 90 09
5 Years 33 129 03 35 92 04 120 92 13
10 Years 58 163 03 58 97 05 62 124 04
20 Years 98 141 05 91 100 07 71 121 04
Statistical Measures
Largest Drawdown - period Mar-09 - May-09 Mar-11 - Nov-12 Nov-07 - Feb-09
Largest Drawdown - -2509 -1486 -4216
Largest Drawdown - of months 3 21 16
Recovery Period Jun-09 - Jul-11 Dec-12 - Nov-14 Mar-09 - Apr-11
Recovery Duration 26 24 26
Full - history semi-deviation 83 54 83
Full - history skewness 03 02 -08
Full- history kurtosis 47 -01 15
Crisis Period Returns
LTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98) 121 104 -88
Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02) 113 157 -145
Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09) 326 183 -309
SampP 500 Index MLM Index 3X woInt Credit Suisse Index 7030 Portfolio
Return Return Return Return
Total Total Total Total
Jan-73 -149 NA NA NA
Feb-73 -352 NA NA NA
Mar-73 009 NA NA NA
Apr-73 -384 NA NA NA
May-73 -164 NA NA NA
Jun-73 -04 NA NA NA
Jul-73 406 NA NA NA
Aug-73 -342 NA NA NA
Sep-73 427 NA NA NA
Oct-73 013 NA NA NA
Nov-73 -1112 NA NA NA
Dec-73 196 NA NA NA
Jan-74 -071 NA NA NA
Feb-74 -005 NA NA NA
Mar-74 -202 NA NA NA
Apr-74 -359 NA NA NA
May-74 -302 NA NA NA
Jun-74 -112 NA NA NA
Jul-74 -742 NA NA NA
Aug-74 -864 NA NA NA
Sep-74 -115 NA NA NA
Oct-74 168 NA NA NA
Nov-74 -49 NA NA NA
Dec-74 -158 NA NA NA
Jan-75 1273 NA NA NA
Feb-75 639 NA NA NA
Mar-75 255 NA NA NA
Apr-75 509 NA NA NA
May-75 476 NA NA NA
Jun-75 477 NA NA NA
Jul-75 -644 NA NA NA
Aug-75 -176 NA NA NA
Sep-75 -311 NA NA NA
Oct-75 654 NA NA NA
Nov-75 281 NA NA NA
Dec-75 -082 NA NA NA
Jan-76 1217 NA NA NA
Feb-76 -084 NA NA NA
Mar-76 338 NA NA NA
Apr-76 -08 NA NA NA
May-76 -112 NA NA NA
Jun-76 441 NA NA NA
Jul-76 -05 NA NA NA
Aug-76 -02 NA NA NA
Sep-76 258 NA NA NA
Oct-76 -191 NA NA NA
Nov-76 -045 NA NA NA
Dec-76 558 NA NA NA
Jan-77 -473 NA NA NA
Feb-77 -182 NA NA NA
Mar-77 -104 NA NA NA
Apr-77 038 NA NA NA
May-77 -198 NA NA NA
Jun-77 493 NA NA NA
Jul-77 -124 NA NA NA
Aug-77 -172 NA NA NA
Sep-77 015 NA NA NA
Oct-77 -394 NA NA NA
Nov-77 312 NA NA NA
Dec-77 071 NA NA NA
Jan-78 -573 NA NA NA
Feb-78 -202 NA NA NA
Mar-78 297 NA NA NA
Apr-78 901 NA NA NA
May-78 086 NA NA NA
Jun-78 -132 NA NA NA
Jul-78 584 NA NA NA
Aug-78 302 NA NA NA
Sep-78 -031 NA NA NA
Oct-78 -874 NA NA NA
Nov-78 213 NA NA NA
Dec-78 194 NA NA NA
Jan-79 443 NA NA NA
Feb-79 -321 NA NA NA
Mar-79 598 NA NA NA
Apr-79 061 NA NA NA
May-79 -218 NA NA NA
Jun-79 434 NA NA NA
Jul-79 133 NA NA NA
Aug-79 576 NA NA NA
Sep-79 044 NA NA NA
Oct-79 -639 NA NA NA
Nov-79 472 NA NA NA
Dec-79 22 NA NA NA
Jan-80 621 NA NA NA
Feb-80 -001 NA NA NA
Mar-80 -975 NA NA NA
Apr-80 462 NA NA NA
May-80 515 NA NA NA
Jun-80 316 NA NA NA
Jul-80 696 NA NA NA
Aug-80 101 NA NA NA
Sep-80 294 NA NA NA
Oct-80 202 NA NA NA
Nov-80 1065 NA NA NA
Dec-80 -301 NA NA NA
Jan-81 -42 NA NA NA
Feb-81 172 NA NA NA
Mar-81 399 NA NA NA
Apr-81 -194 NA NA NA
May-81 025 NA NA NA
Jun-81 -062 NA NA NA
Jul-81 021 NA NA NA
Aug-81 -578 NA NA NA
Sep-81 -492 NA NA NA
Oct-81 54 NA NA NA
Nov-81 412 NA NA NA
Dec-81 -256 NA NA NA
Jan-82 -13 NA NA NA
Feb-82 -559 NA NA NA
Mar-82 -052 NA NA NA
Apr-82 452 NA NA NA
May-82 -341 NA NA NA
Jun-82 -15 NA NA NA
Jul-82 -177 NA NA NA
Aug-82 1214 NA NA NA
Sep-82 124 NA NA NA
Oct-82 1151 NA NA NA
Nov-82 404 NA NA NA
Dec-82 193 NA NA NA
Jan-83 372 NA NA NA
Feb-83 229 NA NA NA
Mar-83 369 NA NA NA
Apr-83 788 NA NA NA
May-83 -087 NA NA NA
Jun-83 389 NA NA NA
Jul-83 -295 NA NA NA
Aug-83 15 NA NA NA
Sep-83 138 NA NA NA
Oct-83 -116 NA NA NA
Nov-83 211 NA NA NA
Dec-83 -052 NA NA NA
Jan-84 -056 NA NA NA
Feb-84 -352 NA NA NA
Mar-84 173 NA NA NA
Apr-84 092 NA NA NA
May-84 -556 NA NA NA
Jun-84 214 NA NA NA
Jul-84 -124 NA NA NA
Aug-84 1104 NA NA NA
Sep-84 002 NA NA NA
Oct-84 038 NA NA NA
Nov-84 -112 NA NA NA
Dec-84 264 NA NA NA
Jan-85 779 NA NA NA
Feb-85 123 NA NA NA
Mar-85 006 NA NA NA
Apr-85 -009 NA NA NA
May-85 578 NA NA NA
Jun-85 157 NA NA NA
Jul-85 -014 NA NA NA
Aug-85 -086 NA NA NA
Sep-85 -313 NA NA NA
Oct-85 462 NA NA NA
Nov-85 686 NA NA NA
Dec-85 484 NA NA NA
Jan-86 056 NA NA NA
Feb-86 747 NA NA NA
Mar-86 558 NA NA NA
Apr-86 -113 NA NA NA
May-86 532 NA NA NA
Jun-86 169 NA NA NA
Jul-86 -559 NA NA NA
Aug-86 741 NA NA NA
Sep-86 -827 NA NA NA
Oct-86 577 NA NA NA
Nov-86 243 NA NA NA
Dec-86 -255 NA NA NA
Jan-87 1347 NA NA NA
Feb-87 395 NA NA NA
Mar-87 289 NA NA NA
Apr-87 -089 NA NA NA
May-87 087 NA NA NA
Jun-87 505 NA NA NA
Jul-87 507 NA NA NA
Aug-87 373 NA NA NA
Sep-87 -219 NA NA NA
Oct-87 -2153 NA NA NA
Nov-87 -824 NA NA NA
Dec-87 761 NA NA NA
Jan-88 421 NA NA 349
Feb-88 466 NA NA 436
Mar-88 -309 NA NA 036
Apr-88 11 NA NA 066
May-88 086 NA NA -09
Jun-88 458 NA NA 252
Jul-88 -038 NA NA 02
Aug-88 -34 NA NA -286
Sep-88 425 NA NA 359
Oct-88 282 NA NA 344
Nov-88 -143 NA NA 034
Dec-88 174 NA NA 116
Jan-89 731 NA NA 398
Feb-89 -248 NA NA -089
Mar-89 232 NA NA 07
Apr-89 52 NA NA 323
May-89 405 NA NA 14
Jun-89 -057 NA NA 004
Jul-89 903 NA NA 742
Aug-89 195 NA NA -04
Sep-89 -041 NA NA 113
Oct-89 -232 NA NA -171
Nov-89 204 NA NA 23
Dec-89 24 NA NA 194
Jan-90 -671 NA NA -478
Feb-90 13 NA NA -08
Mar-90 264 NA NA -117
Apr-90 -249 NA NA -177
May-90 975 NA NA 786
Jun-90 -067 NA NA -001
Jul-90 -032 NA NA 019
Aug-90 -904 NA NA -722
Sep-90 -487 NA NA -53
Oct-90 -043 NA NA 295
Nov-90 646 NA NA 26
Dec-90 279 NA NA 235
Jan-91 435 NA NA 348
Feb-91 715 NA NA 62
Mar-91 242 NA NA 049
Apr-91 024 NA NA 058
May-91 431 NA NA 257
Jun-91 -458 NA NA -379
Jul-91 466 NA NA 377
Aug-91 237 NA NA 166
Sep-91 -167 NA NA 095
Oct-91 134 NA NA 152
Nov-91 -403 NA NA -26
Dec-91 1144 NA NA 76
Jan-92 -186 -50186134107 NA -101
Feb-92 13 -11806985257 NA 03
Mar-92 -194 -34682100213 NA -245
Apr-92 294 04856690806 NA 135
May-92 049 36691977834 NA 196
Jun-92 -149 3995994645 NA -144
Jul-92 409 58382478439 NA 241
Aug-92 -205 21392596519 NA 003
Sep-92 118 -10417441781 NA 069
Oct-92 035 -11426309261 NA -063
Nov-92 34 -24243841368 NA 231
Dec-92 123 03309287484 NA 157
Jan-93 084 12125566229 NA 109
Feb-93 136 59842293696 NA 136
Mar-93 211 -06484088187 NA 282
Apr-93 -242 09183032136 NA 027
May-93 268 -00124707027 NA 196
Jun-93 029 75565231659 NA 064
Jul-93 -04 34694235802 NA 068
Aug-93 379 26998187389 NA 356
Sep-93 -077 -35544940483 NA -032
Oct-93 207 12906000348 NA 154
Nov-93 -095 39231376084 NA -251
Dec-93 121 23140907663 NA 262
Jan-94 34 -16392143954 NA 357
Feb-94 -271 -5375365439 NA -19
Mar-94 -436 -17526970615 NA -389
Apr-94 128 -31042584129 NA 106
May-94 164 21687630069 NA 058
Jun-94 -245 -02802505425 NA -136
Jul-94 328 -09170406074 NA 249
Aug-94 41 03148132864 NA 3
Sep-94 -245 49091708791 NA -203
Oct-94 225 33710507687 NA 14
Nov-94 -364 -02736669026 NA -3 SampP 500 Index MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol 7030 Portfolio
Dec-94 148 11635880505 NA 095 Dec-94 100 100 100 100
Jan-95 259 1488846469 18462 078 Jan-95 103 101 102 101
Feb-95 39 18245801927 -04746 274 Feb-95 107 103 101 104
Mar-95 295 37741988604 70854 257 Mar-95 110 107 109 106
Apr-95 294 20196669281 31179 254 Apr-95 113 109 112 109
May-95 4 4438151788 78944 291 May-95 117 114 121 112
Jun-95 232 15287989065 -04753 152 Jun-95 120 116 120 114
Jul-95 332 -14769041128 -2252 32 Jul-95 124 114 117 117
Aug-95 025 -36439459991 -31269 016 Aug-95 125 110 114 118
Sep-95 422 05926567612 39491 274 Sep-95 130 111 118 121
Oct-95 -036 2635846499 25163 -064 Oct-95 129 114 121 120
Nov-95 439 27162162082 33589 332 Nov-95 135 117 125 124
Dec-95 193 4331305919 47021 198 Dec-95 138 122 131 126
Jan-96 34 19634168588 54269 207 Jan-96 142 124 138 129
Feb-96 093 -13857157749 -37777 042 Feb-96 144 123 133 130
Mar-96 096 3570816298 36706 074 Mar-96 145 127 138 131
Apr-96 147 47035792726 48573 151 Apr-96 147 133 145 133
May-96 258 04897246276 -23907 119 May-96 151 134 141 134
Jun-96 038 04231657395 28546 021 Jun-96 151 134 145 134
Jul-96 -442 -32825387444 -5322 -362 Jul-96 145 130 138 130
Aug-96 211 50232432929 29044 183 Aug-96 148 136 142 132
Sep-96 563 54206924649 82056 405 Sep-96 156 144 153 137
Oct-96 276 51159466491 83507 144 Oct-96 160 151 166 139
Nov-96 756 43728165918 864 527 Nov-96 173 158 180 147
Dec-96 -198 14093703517 -07113 -113 Dec-96 169 160 179 145
Jan-97 625 17011191838 -16167 314 Jan-97 180 162 176 150
Feb-97 078 -17477703643 -15622 041 Feb-97 181 160 173 150
Mar-97 -411 -0910181567 12022 -309 Mar-97 174 158 175 145
Apr-97 597 09232176853 15126 349 Apr-97 184 160 178 151
May-97 609 -06805906276 09263 543 May-97 195 159 180 159
Jun-97 448 14017438969 -08095 375 Jun-97 204 161 178 165
Jul-97 796 41579104051 60499 584 Jul-97 220 167 189 174
Aug-97 -56 -24491709033 -58848 -401 Aug-97 208 163 178 167
Sep-97 548 23206853381 65934 476 Sep-97 219 167 190 175
Oct-97 -334 3155194786 26194 -317 Oct-97 212 172 195 170
Nov-97 463 1734137994 34076 24 Nov-97 222 175 201 174
Dec-97 172 50839377232 45191 168 Dec-97 226 184 210 177
Jan-98 111 -0540706989 01984 101 Jan-98 228 183 211 178
Feb-98 721 40902523842 09547 561 Feb-98 245 191 213 189
Mar-98 512 4564059454 36725 385 Mar-98 257 200 221 196
Apr-98 101 10197007162 2729 086 Apr-98 260 202 227 197
May-98 -172 66464318242 49967 -174 May-98 255 215 238 194
Jun-98 406 14535097859 12227 237 Jun-98 266 218 241 199
Jul-98 -106 79600070571 25845 -106 143 Jul-98 263 235 247 197
Aug-98 -1446 85969949752 100188 -1191 Aug-98 225 256 272 173
Sep-98 641 -43471273323 13057 462 Sep-98 239 245 275 181
Oct-98 813 -21914686666 -48215 62 Oct-98 259 239 262 192
Nov-98 606 35427775078 -16838 49 Nov-98 274 248 258 202
Dec-98 576 46223079694 36184 48 Dec-98 290 259 267 211
Jan-99 418 11652083769 -13599 243 Jan-99 302 262 263 217
Feb-99 -311 08705260303 -29127 -306 Feb-99 293 264 256 210
Mar-99 4 -66775958823 -24295 326 Mar-99 305 247 250 217
Apr-99 387 22077437514 51823 383 Apr-99 316 252 263 225
May-99 -236 05593377297 -19638 -207 May-99 309 254 257 220
Jun-99 555 0821055256 43706 406 Jun-99 326 256 269 229
Jul-99 -312 -05417097185 00435 -19 Jul-99 316 254 269 225
Aug-99 -049 12651757883 01021 -075 Aug-99 314 258 269 223
Sep-99 -274 24672781685 05889 -147 Sep-99 306 264 271 220
Oct-99 633 -17330628613 -47866 486 Oct-99 325 259 258 231
Nov-99 203 37710155755 29817 248 Nov-99 332 269 265 236
Dec-99 589 30182108515 60293 568 Dec-99 351 277 281 250
Jan-00 -502 24897212667 -25282 -359 Jan-00 334 284 274 241
Feb-00 -189 -05713037029 10256 122 Feb-00 327 283 277 244
Mar-00 978 -24716293218 -3378 621 Mar-00 359 276 268 259
Apr-00 -301 03990582414 -22613 -331 1573 Apr-00 348 277 262 250
May-00 -205 24192880579 0877 -232 May-00 341 283 264 245
Jun-00 247 0878887186 -34187 3 Jun-00 350 286 255 252
Jul-00 -156 24260079771 12301 -165 Jul-00 344 293 258 248
Aug-00 621 75396102385 45179 559 Aug-00 366 315 270 262
Sep-00 -528 09222855204 04031 -385 Sep-00 346 318 271 252
Oct-00 -042 299852918 44133 -131 Oct-00 345 327 283 248
Nov-00 -788 5315579778 110553 -68 Nov-00 318 345 314 231
Dec-00 049 -25942802121 -17463 193 Dec-00 319 336 308 236
1-Jan 355 -00863561154 -04261 284 Jan-01 331 335 307 243
1-Feb -912 16209515233 74179 -716 Feb-01 300 341 330 225
1-Mar -633 48299554873 94097 -52 Mar-01 281 357 361 213
1-Apr 777 -43323517245 -65179 61 Apr-01 303 342 337 227
1-May 067 24991627761 11086 031 May-01 305 350 341 227
1-Jun -243 -01569851257 00543 -165 Jun-01 298 350 341 223
1-Jul -098 -21829671963 -05079 -093 Jul-01 295 342 340 221
1-Aug -626 -26070979092 17884 -404 Aug-01 276 333 346 212
1-Sep -808 10636654952 60561 -685 Sep-01 254 337 367 198
1-Oct 191 09408124501 22528 233 Oct-01 259 340 375 203
1-Nov 767 -16137664028 -837 519 Nov-01 279 334 344 213
1-Dec 088 07970479005 -2992 094 Dec-01 281 337 333 215
2-Jan -146 01132698972 -26759 -115 Jan-02 277 338 324 213
2-Feb -193 -02410246265 -26221 -106 Feb-02 272 337 316 210
2-Mar 376 -64656658879 -37678 312 Mar-02 282 315 304 217
2-Apr -606 01559405489 -06737 -3 Apr-02 265 315 302 210
2-May -074 19425675286 49554 -043 May-02 263 322 317 209
2-Jun -712 46154392532 59609 -498 Jun-02 244 336 336 199
2-Jul -78 -09755577412 44704 -592 Jul-02 225 333 351 187
2-Aug 066 36669673432 29178 074 Aug-02 227 345 361 189
2-Sep -1087 42995914132 68228 -728 Sep-02 202 360 386 175
2-Oct 88 -18586716944 -39428 521 Oct-02 220 354 370 184
2-Nov 589 -06691963741 -43217 423 Nov-02 233 351 354 192
2-Dec -587 10504712371 65168 -333 Dec-02 219 388 377 185
3-Jan -262 79413180181 78029 -186 Jan-03 213 419 407 182
3-Feb -15 5839796145 24675 -082 Feb-03 210 443 417 180
3-Mar 097 -4822187841 -49263 039 Mar-03 212 422 396 181
3-Apr 824 08044165566 01717 619 Apr-03 230 425 397 192
3-May 527 86017617168 75621 492 May-03 242 462 427 202
3-Jun 128 -16232843116 -23723 11 Jun-03 245 454 417 204
3-Jul 176 -58470688666 -38819 084 Jul-03 249 428 401 206
3-Aug 195 -01285241001 24459 191 Aug-03 254 427 411 210
3-Sep -106 62607424571 26964 031 Sep-03 251 454 422 210
3-Oct 566 09634730462 79884 431 Oct-03 266 458 455 219
3-Nov 088 23264834944 02951 12 Nov-03 268 469 457 222
3-Dec 524 14110879536 8856 41 Dec-03 282 476 497 231
4-Jan 184 19478633231 26613 172 Jan-04 287 485 510 235
4-Feb 139 52879779623 57235 144 Feb-04 291 511 540 239
4-Mar -151 2268957551 -03792 -05 Mar-04 287 522 538 237
4-Apr -157 -56830338449 -105019 -233 Apr-04 282 493 481 232
4-May 137 -16566072328 -32214 087 May-04 286 484 466 234
4-Jun 194 -17215338796 -23435 168 Jun-04 292 476 455 238
4-Jul -331 -06069797015 -19673 -258 Jul-04 282 473 446 232
4-Aug 04 -05707405134 -31134 082 Aug-04 283 470 432 234
4-Sep 108 70162697766 75979 145 Sep-04 286 503 465 237
4-Oct 153 34033420009 3203 17 Oct-04 291 521 480 241
4-Nov 405 45583596598 79681 368 Nov-04 302 544 518 250
4-Dec 34 01240939032 07905 307 Dec-04 313 545 522 257
5-Jan -244 16755564551 -35158 -181 Jan-05 305 554 504 253
5-Feb 21 -20025648058 07235 196 Feb-05 311 543 507 258
5-Mar -177 -10751895082 -32131 -158 Mar-05 306 537 491 254
5-Apr -19 -2390258099 -3307 -143 Apr-05 300 524 475 250
5-May 318 08685813036 14103 272 May-05 310 529 481 257
5-Jun 014 2223478206 2443 083 Jun-05 310 541 493 259
5-Jul 372 -21671781188 16173 293 Jul-05 322 529 501 267
5-Aug -091 49286219575 23044 002 Aug-05 319 555 513 267
5-Sep 081 37034231946 44919 108 Sep-05 321 576 536 270
5-Oct -167 -41709576663 -50465 -191 Oct-05 316 552 509 264
5-Nov 378 22186228209 731 307 Nov-05 328 564 546 272
5-Dec 003 15087373486 26914 097 Dec-05 328 572 561 275
6-Jan 265 05184116785 49735 32 Jan-06 337 575 588 284
6-Feb 027 -12693666599 -08661 013 Feb-06 338 568 583 284
6-Mar 125 20763323239 66529 136 Mar-06 342 580 622 288
6-Apr 134 -11401031738 110633 149 Apr-06 346 573 691 292
6-May -288 -38328436628 -15079 -283 May-06 336 551 681 284
6-Jun 014 -17992981531 -41286 014 Jun-06 337 541 652 285
6-Jul 062 -32543371611 -14002 038 Jul-06 339 524 643 286
6-Aug 238 -01076272465 29098 232 Aug-06 347 523 662 292
6-Sep 258 07974403785 -03827 16 Sep-06 356 527 659 297
6-Oct 326 -29512764216 -00218 309 Oct-06 368 512 659 306
6-Nov 19 03172013357 58364 222 Nov-06 375 513 698 313
6-Dec 14 25165243518 03787 117 Dec-06 380 526 700 317
7-Jan 151 -10891073316 07036 127 Jan-07 386 520 705 321
7-Feb -196 -0242828355 -13437 -066 Feb-07 378 519 696 318
7-Mar 112 -24787732727 -10187 115 Mar-07 382 506 689 322
7-Apr 443 02879881174 68079 345 Apr-07 399 508 736 333
7-May 349 04724656451 33768 267 May-07 413 510 761 342
7-Jun -166 06726351642 29473 -111 Jun-07 406 514 783 338
7-Jul -31 -10308231752 -62002 -209 Jul-07 394 508 734 331
7-Aug 15 -48378452877 -4152 085 Aug-07 400 484 704 334
7-Sep 374 50760632525 70341 364 Sep-07 415 508 753 346
7-Oct 159 36478459472 64209 235 2672 Oct-07 421 527 802 354
7-Nov -418 -09519733939 -29049 -338 Nov-07 404 522 779 342
7-Dec -069 -00407441673 00631 -06 Dec-07 401 522 779 340
8-Jan -6 38885050267 87377 -527 Jan-08 377 542 847 322
8-Feb -325 79938792923 97517 -138 Feb-08 364 585 930 318
8-Mar -043 -01164410281 -17484 -069 Mar-08 363 585 913 316
8-Apr 487 -11768609649 -73215 412 Apr-08 381 578 847 329
8-May 13 26727320318 02045 143 May-08 385 593 848 334
8-Jun -843 38796643349 38908 -664 Jun-08 353 616 881 311
8-Jul -084 -111000927524 -63133 -116 Jul-08 350 548 826 308
8-Aug 145 -81389596386 09693 032 Aug-08 355 503 834 309
8-Sep -891 2350077992 4926 -863 Sep-08 323 515 875 282
8-Oct -1679 231353875038 118043 -1488 Oct-08 269 634 978 240
8-Nov -718 91409930423 52566 -464 Nov-08 250 692 1029 229
8-Dec 106 39012647249 17001 298 Dec-08 252 719 1047 236
9-Jan -843 36085657209 -01782 -629 Jan-09 231 745 1045 221
9-Feb -1065 17480110926 0841 -723 Feb-09 207 758 1054 205
9-Mar 876 -40891209192 -17399 626 Mar-09 225 727 1035 218
9-Apr 957 -52452980511 -24793 785 Apr-09 246 689 1010 235
9-May 559 -175764056892 24393 525 May-09 260 568 1034 247
9-Jun 02 26344903362 -3873 018 Jun-09 260 583 994 248
9-Jul 756 29911557926 15775 638 Jul-09 280 600 1010 264
9-Aug 361 66647387555 02737 292 Aug-09 290 640 1013 271
9-Sep 373 19908108013 31657 353 Sep-09 301 653 1045 281
9-Oct -186 -1135758063 -18836 -156 Oct-09 295 646 1025 276
9-Nov 6 429598654 65618 406 Nov-09 313 673 1092 288
9-Dec 193 -3538041182 -30108 161 Dec-09 319 649 1060 292
10-Jan -36 -22840646395 -587 -256 Jan-10 308 635 997 285
10-Feb 31 13842186803 10589 206 Feb-10 317 643 1008 291
10-Mar 603 38205356429 32922 477 Mar-10 336 668 1041 304
10-Apr 158 14253968325 03791 14 Apr-10 342 678 1045 309
10-May -799 -05569215148 17471 -621 May-10 314 674 1063 290
10-Jun -523 -23229482293 07896 -318 Jun-10 298 658 1072 280
10-Jul 701 -52850060701 -35575 569 Jul-10 319 623 1034 296
10-Aug -451 76993453056 43121 -284 Aug-10 305 671 1078 288
10-Sep 892 05035470246 12552 702 Sep-10 332 675 1092 308
10-Oct 38 35726262618 52271 293 Oct-10 344 699 1149 317
10-Nov 001 -46572458071 -67101 -044 Nov-10 344 666 1072 316
10-Dec 668 71205616987 60114 502 Dec-10 367 714 1136 332
11-Jan 237 14260916813 02413 151 Jan-11 376 724 1139 337
11-Feb 343 -08196213636 14822 271 Feb-11 389 718 1156 346
11-Mar 004 -25144800567 -53504 026 Mar-11 389 700 1094 347
11-Apr 296 51621261523 44419 292 Apr-11 401 736 1142 357
11-May -113 -18535770592 -51957 -088 May-11 396 722 1083 354
11-Jun -167 08676483656 -46402 -14 Jun-11 389 729 1033 349
11-Jul -203 93387304437 48149 -126 Jul-11 382 797 1083 344
11-Aug -543 3189583693 00543 -469 Aug-11 361 822 1083 328
11-Sep -703 -41599527992 34989 -619 Sep-11 335 788 1121 308
11-Oct 1093 -13852548076 -6243 834 Oct-11 372 777 1051 333
11-Nov -022 39284953285 -00578 -096 Nov-11 371 808 1050 330
11-Dec 102 01889893545 02082 061 Dec-11 375 809 1053 332
12-Jan 448 -01521632453 -04526 426 Jan-12 392 808 1048 346
12-Feb 432 -22430032837 14221 342 Feb-12 409 790 1063 358
12-Mar 329 -12258940456 -21399 158 Mar-12 422 780 1040 364
12-Apr -063 13756177692 -18216 -038 Apr-12 420 791 1021 363
12-May -601 43616823461 38067 -528 May-12 394 825 1060 343
12-Jun 412 -61107318666 -83896 324 Jun-12 411 775 971 355
12-Jul 139 -2662867044 20145 115 Jul-12 416 754 991 359
12-Aug 225 -29540623033 -22929 186 Aug-12 426 732 968 365
12-Sep 258 -47724948882 -20234 22 Sep-12 437 697 948 373
12-Oct -185 -18050840884 -36659 -098 Oct-12 429 684 914 370
12-Nov 058 -03984415062 -0944 079 Nov-12 431 682 905 373
12-Dec 091 -17220762656 24366 124 Dec-12 435 670 927 377
13-Jan 518 -04335912154 32593 387 Jan-13 458 667 957 392
13-Feb 136 -29598734504 01523 08 Feb-13 464 647 959 395
13-Mar 375 -04786782014 2166 255 Mar-13 481 644 979 405
13-Apr 193 11854540053 29259 181 Apr-13 490 652 1008 412
13-May 234 -43222576245 -06784 082 May-13 502 624 1001 416
13-Jun -134 06875789801 10553 -177 Jun-13 495 628 1012 408
13-Jul 509 06412005306 -19554 423 Jul-13 520 632 992 426
13-Aug -29 11512128942 -11474 -214 Aug-13 505 639 981 417
13-Sep 314 -19925877399 -05148 361 Sep-13 521 626 976 432
13-Oct 46 -07538953205 -06933 349 Oct-13 545 622 969 447
13-Nov 305 27584740935 46402 189 Nov-13 562 639 1014 455
13-Dec 253 19377872096 15067 18 Dec-13 576 651 1029 463
14-Jan -346 -08961192857 -51141 -251 Jan-14 556 645 976 452
14-Feb 457 -00139276726 -05865 399 Feb-14 581 645 971 470
14-Mar 084 -34260446582 -18865 037 Mar-14 586 623 952 471
14-Apr 074 22210329784 03199 043 Apr-14 591 637 955 473
14-May 235 -07288421342 07134 197 May-14 605 632 962 483
14-Jun 207 05841054246 00135 195 Jun-14 617 636 962 492
14-Jul -138 -00888949644 03097 -153 Jul-14 609 636 965 485
14-Aug 4 18791535569 48657 313 Aug-14 633 648 1012 500
14-Sep -14 69028951277 63915 -221 Sep-14 624 692 1077 489
14-Oct 244 21563513841 15927 194 Oct-14 639 707 1094 498
14-Nov 269 72204527611 104647 19 Nov-14 657 758 1209 508 LTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98)
14-Dec -025 76468641712 47745 -044 Dec-14 655 816 1266 506 Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02)
15-Jan -3 54094515689 113573 -159 Jan-15 635 860 1410 497 Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09)
15-Feb 575 -50846010492 -16603 45 Feb-15 672 817 1387 520
15-Mar -158 65245129876 57568 -083 Mar-15 661 870 1467 516
15-Apr 096 -88441663253 -51219 09 Apr-15 667 793 1392 520
15-May 129 40875447394 08884 073 May-15 676 825 1404 524
15-Jun -194 -66047202646 -62159 -171 Jun-15 663 771 1317 515
15-Jul 21 80060563143 34205 126 Jul-15 677 833 1362 522
15-Aug -603 -10026780942 -24342 -522 Aug-15 636 824 1329 494
15-Sep -247 36089130828 34355 -247 Sep-15 620 854 1374 482
15-Oct 844 -16993598229 -58073 637 Oct-15 673 839 1294 513
15-Nov 03 48441920313 30487 01 Nov-15 675 880 1334 513
15-Dec -158 11998205926 -10345 -173 Dec-15 664 891 1320 504
16-Jan -496 31480723033 48626 -453 Jan-16 631 919 1384 482
16-Feb -013 33572073647 44379 -002 Feb-16 630 950 1446 481
16-Mar 678 -61786855584 -39621 601 Mar-16 673 891 1388 510
16-Apr 039 -31282642584 09914 082 Apr-16 676 863 1402 515
16-May 18 -08911812015 -5253 107 May-16 688 855 1328 520
16-Jun 026 65324823204 94059 03 Jun-16 690 911 1453 522
16-Jul 369 21567955023 02767 348 Jul-16 715 931 1457 540
16-Aug 014 -15149 -44038 024 Aug-16 716 917 1393 541
16-Sep 002 10335 0967 025 Sep-16 716 926 1407 542
-41363
Correllation 100 -022 -015 097
skew -04 02 01 -08
Kurt 198 469 -028 186

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 3

Background

bull At its September 28 2016 meeting the RISIC approved a 8 allocation to a CROSM class

bull CROSM rationale produce appreciation during a growth crisis

bull Key features of the CROSM class In aggregate high-confidence of negative conditional crisis correlation Relatively high volatility must be gt= to the volatility of the Total Portfolio Responsive and complementary strategies

Duration first responder during a flight-to-quality a crisis Systematic trend following (STF) performs well when crisis is confirmed

Because of low cross-correlations individual components must exhibit higher isolated volatilities than the CRO portfolio volatility target

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 4

CROSM Implementation Considerations

bull All underlying strategiescomponent portfolios will have high liquiditymarketability

bull All-in costs will be reasonable (likely in the 40bp ndash 100bp range)

bull Given highly-volatile components there should be continual oversight

bull The systematic trend following strategy component will bull employ long and short positionsbull will use derivatives leverage to establish volatility levels

bull Managers are not seeking ldquoalphardquo they are seeking risk capturebull Duration managers capturing interest rate riskbull STF managers capturing trendmomentum risks across dozens of markets

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 5

CROSM Implementation Considerations (Platform Manager)

bull Act as fiduciary to the plan

bull Key role gathering and accounting for all long-short positions across all component managers

bull Reconciling manager position data with primary broker position data

bull Provide account administrative functions very similar to RISIC custodian function

bull Netting all positions and providing risk analyticscharacteristics of aggregate portfolio

bull Monitoring and managing risk levels per client directionguidelinesbull Re-setting manager account levels (ie rebalancing among managers)bull Directing managers to adjust collateral levels

bull Provide best-practices user-interfaces to asset-owners such as RISIC

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 6

CROSM Class Management Diagram

bull Within this construct the asset-owner (ie RISIC)bull Searches for and selects platform managerbull Searches for and selects component managers (funds)bull Determines level of guideline authority to assign to platform manager

PlatformManager

RIA and Fiduciary

BrokersTrade Execution Admin - NAV Calculations

SubscriptionsRedemptions

Trade Reconciliation

(vetted by platform manager)

PlatformManager

Client CustodianCash Safekeeping

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 7

Systematic Trend Following Benchmark Review

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 8

bull Momentum and Trend Following are somewhat interchangeable terms

bull That which has done well recently will continue to do well

bull That which has done poorly recently will continue to do poorly

bull Buy what is going up sell what is going down

Ex if SampP 500 has a positive 1-year return buygo long Ex if oil has a negative 1-year return sellshort

bull This results in a volatile yet low correlation return vs risky assets (eg equities) over a full market cycle

Often a positive correlation during strong (extended) bull markets and a negative correlation during major bear markets

Description ndash What is Systematic Trend Following

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 9

bull Trend horizon or lookback period = the length of time that the signal is ldquolooking backrdquo to see if the total return index is higher (lower) today than 30 days 3 months 1 year ago etc

bull Moving average (MA) crossover is a methodology to identify a trend - if short term MA is above longer term MA = Uptrend (buy market)- if short term MA is below longer term MA = Downtrend (sell market)

bull The trend horizon of a moving average is half of its moving average ndash this makes sense

Trend Following Terminology

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Example The average lookback of an equally weighted moving average is total days in the moving average divided by two

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 10

bull Manage long and short positions according to systematic signals

bull Implemented in futures and forwards (currency) markets (see Appendix)

bull Investable universe includes liquid markets across the globe Equities = typically broad indices such as SampP 500 Nikkei 225 etc Fixed Income = typically sovereign bondsrates such as US 10-year Treasury Currencies = typically major currencies such as JPY GBP EUR AUD CAD CHF Commodities = energy metals and agriculture components

bull Strategy implementation volatility is customizable (range anywhere from roughly 5-30 (capable of offsetting equity asymp 18-20)

bull Systematic = rules-based implementation

bull Related terms = managed futures CTAs (commodity trading advisors)

How do systematic trend following managers invest

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 11

Basic Trend Following Example

bull Single Asset Example 21 day average price gt 252 day average price = long position 21 day average price lt 252 day average price = short position

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 12

bull The RISICrsquos Trend Following allocation and corresponding managers should be compiled based on assessing the following criteria

Trend Horizons Short asymp lt1 month Medium asymp 1-11 months Long asymp12+ months

Systematic implementation = quantitatively-oriented firmso Graduate (PhD Masters) backgrounds in mathematics physics computer scienceo Straight forward strategy design (ie humility)

Focus on global futures markets (ie utilize forwards on limited basis)

Strong focus on risk management and diversification

Target gt15 annual standard deviationo Required in order to meaningfully impact portfolio

RISIC Mandate ndash Trend Following Allocation

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 13

Why medium-term trends

o Trend Horizons Short asymp lt1 month | Medium asymp 1-11 months | Long asymp12+ months

o Medium to long-term trends provide most robust return patterns - whyo Short term trends are too short (risk getting whipsawed in choppy markets)o Long term trends are too long (longer time to turn lower hit ratios)

o The average of all trend horizons traded is the horizon of the strategy

Using a larger number of moving average signals reduces the dependency on individual data points and leads to an increased robustness of the strategy vs more concentrated strategies shorter drawdown periods

What length of trend is best How many

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 14

bull Benchmarking Trend Following strategies is imperfectbull Primarily due to different volatility targets markets traded and trend horizons (lookback)

bull Benchmark characteristicsbull Construction based on consistently applied tradingrisk-management rulesbull Inclusive of markets traded by managers (rates currency commodities equities)bull Broad scalable investible published available at low cost as a simple option bull Comparable to the strategies run by managers that will be sourced

bull Institutional investors track several major benchmarks bull MLM 3X IndexTM (Investable rules-based)bull Credit Suisse Managed Futures Liquid IndexTM 15 Target Volatility (Investable rules-based)bull Societe Generale Trend IndexTM (Uninvestable 10 largest trend managers)

Trend Following Benchmarks

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 15

Investable Trend Following Benchmark Comparisons

Source Mount Lucas Management Credit Suisse

Several distinctions between indices can produce different performance behaviors

Selected Investable STF Benchmark Characteristics

MLM Index 3X trade (with interest on cash)

Credit Suisse Managed Futures Liquid Indextrade

15 Target VolBasic trend signal Time-series momentum Moving Average Crossover

of look-back periods utilized 1 16Range of look-back periods only 12-months 1-month to 9-months

Average look-back period 12-months 5 monthsMarkets traded

Number of markets 22 31

Major market segmentsFixed Income (5)

Currencies (6) Commodities (11)

Fixed Income (4) Currencies (5)

Commodities (17) (in 4 aggregated contracts)

Equities (5)Contracts traded 22 18Trading Frequency Monthly Daily

Volatility Framework

Leveraged to set volatility at 3-times non-levered index volatility Volatility is not

bounded but results from construction

Leveraged to target volatility at an expected forward-looking standard deviation of 15

(within a range of variation)SampP 500

1995-2016 Volatility

Index Volatility 1995-2016 141 147 149Inclusion of return on cash Yes YesYear of Inception Index 1970 1995

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 16

The Credit Suisse MF Liquid Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLMtrade 3x Index

Several years where indices diverge particularly in more recent calendar years but both provided major offset in severe down markets-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Annu

al R

etur

ns -

Calendar Year Returns

MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol 7030 Portfolio

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 17

The Credit Suisse MF Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLM 3x Index

CSMF IndexTM

15 volhas produced a similar but more consistent return pattern versus MLM 3X IndexTM

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

Growth of $1 ndash Index Comparisons

MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol

SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio

Returns to systematic trend following are episodic with long periods of little going on

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 18

The Credit Suisse MF Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLM 3x Index

Comparative Performance Statistics

MLM 3x and Credit Suisse 15 Vol exhibit similar statistical characteristics

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Periods Ending 93020161 Year 85 124 07 24 162 01 125 105 12 154 125 12

3 Years 139 145 10 130 156 08 79 90 09 112 108 105 Years 33 129 03 46 138 03 120 92 13 164 111 15

10 Years 58 163 03 79 144 05 62 124 04 72 153 0420 Years 98 141 05 117 147 06 71 121 04 79 154 04

Statistical MeasuresLargest Drawdown - period

Largest Drawdown - -5095Largest Drawdown - of months 16

Recovery PeriodRecovery Duration 37

Crisis Period ReturnsLTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98) -100

Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02) -206Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09) -388

SampP 500

Nov-07 - Feb-09

Mar-09 - Mar-12

113 127 -145

Jun-09 - Jul-11 Dec-12 - Nov-14 Mar-09 - Apr-1126 24

326 277 -309

121 143 -88

26

-2509 -277 -42163 21 16

MLM 3x Credit Suisse 15 Vol 7030

Mar-09 - May-09 Mar-11 - Nov-12 Nov-07 - Feb-09

Data

Growth of $1 - Selected Indices

SampP 500 Index3466934700347313475934790348203485134881349123494334973350043503435065350963512535156351863521735247352783530935339353703540035431354623549035521355513558235612356433567435704357353576535796358273585535886359163594735977360083603936069361003613036161361923622036251362813631236342363733640436434364653649536526365573658636617366473667836708367393677036800368313686136892369233695136982370123704337073371043713537165371963722637257372883731637347373773740837438374693750037530375613759137622376533768137712377423777337803378343786537895379263795637987380183804738078381083813938169382003823138261382923832238353383843841238443384733850438534385653859638626386573868738718387493877738808388383886938899389303896138991390223905239083391143914239173392033923439264392953932639356393873941739448394793950839539395693960039630396613969239722397533978339814398453987339904399343996539995400264005740087401184014840179402104023840269402994033040360403914042240452404834051340544405754060340634406644069540725407564078740817408484087840909409404096941000410304106141091411224115341183412144124441275413064133441365413954142641456414874151841548415794160941640416714169941730417604179141821418524188341913419444197442005420364206442095421254215642186422174224842278423094233942370424014243042461424914252242552425834261411025910659101109735444795000011129616668719730211748013354685194120205672645138931241965009769575412450699222939992129761187301480581292940470271952513497005569168912137574977766538731422525270106010514357547551179966144953800076712951470846209378406315087940415803691151452745893837461447585345253298514781293960381431561348081035090416044412880716591725737049449876516915674558707691797290421862691918113092871532211736864475451223718405552846356619195264510146997352040123602015828222025174407362882207917646405505612193115334285272921198652821201449221801504468230752256164903450843522812083338791482244568345475183512570902447635128825968685623562435255220242308371642655821841460915226276701299414293224770902915189862391787177920535525862394754854749274296558769989482900960405551408930222205505034578292822949138280023045358671038112431632140516072873308856219998935533259977402088765131582661071435956314279060321859173056678140690402232501658669961042331614423409612513511465129484386633351895799842701327215449692256753592171206721594134840468533992741341262389290458933496915703059332534423638180916072365613461119509613463090703723995334485457227683547317680031981420853192366641381297733056956571503342300421621321822428140493269215101303270095962331173053020056052787829788316686907052949639118337536127649917095296064254158037939961412590124564646146627887871187545059281332844539954552772253850096712227187493507898459282097432637954442650023282200944263041310991265712443127696486875822525637361608997226743065681956152020960944423275221988055075325237232831515192618932191643052508121921342220045324092102208674464422621226000986067275229750234673192224185807204046941244953855362587424926504321696896254125711559699925143197901716707265663029029538712680008636849986528204410894209262872337205466271291226269262225212868287525963656228232554118060267286193401094776962917455530760156628208877526919953283217130370276322862758753782752629065589627156293024274600705612312709993712960313050798698663641131148654713355772305973235249293743001597437795571630970482363174709310138410384831563216755592511472831874831166196183321330172986423731596395909755043279073967514378332800576897046323336697921848180483376070062371705534182709381513519346407576872258013364310386583369433690204211245862338990834773555873470588166411665135601293411050863367618955762511183746037159219988637984816794490683385583875280874937802643132536975382260327356213913991944598580941941312634650714166406268449155123173936741272313143239957923913978401414523502683611964211144263762814340351184335375292400727611634612043766839549365352836444172640109791362874626977573238054662131138102385493727388428953529966061695843935003143467775993551068904805874132346686653876708269156779646908124983132286826009252479534890663612311955100993806420657318827379658224668999566581152461698228251029425993071592102619260450577352868252801406410007451229025371814087202301080181827526562954800904455345831320889587226666319253827562601433077606897703477631730127115322853364345378037681734175020350106773314444362241332432979989220961107431888864653504814304506768576317473316687723333249734427218568199134344306612900559553673062946423169376011453825339853889086466915490138906421015022561400580510770672323960539509989637438943985001728101381534221061930223608169128582674335451483884331213721163310728886371297675144528233750849114310024239188871546311134088183079711177142226843030336747419608139192456253943896900269896410638545256101574163464210351613742571421550845248436697642268570534286187358866019543110472455474422435027777548192424575622164251887746378506256857133481177002414892834904637185615003550194056957583948495214565943523245204209873500485850532877871689719521196102368607855451711230775638156179884233142952576012353042414745560823256271471758149528790830782586379848326737555907190592043554660460095709565786617116196907537966085999933902138963294399312582256240827772220609663931039698627927656507846665210166548665770485471663522057973709076671745763071973566611321800154363466747904894358454676089528674956696629733918186625367689583304685437636079014314129056203678626605700767272691026912224674745090999929526640841185621305963114554628144894630325057071283167306109594071613675686034214884936878483828307528568963678862611273715084386126416237160855042669932271622872136784661MLM Index 3X 34669347003473134759347903482034851348813491234943349733500435034350653509635125351563518635217352473527835309353393537035400354313546235490355213555135582356123564335674357043573535765357963582735855358863591635947359773600836039360693610036130361613619236220362513628136312363423637336404364343646536495365263655736586366173664736678367083673936770368003683136861368923692336951369823701237043370733710437135371653719637226372573728837316373473737737408374383746937500375303756137591376223765337681377123774237773378033783437865378953792637956379873801838047380783810838139381693820038231382613829238322383533838438412384433847338504385343856538596386263865738687387183874938777388083883838869388993893038961389913902239052390833911439142391733920339234392643929539326393563938739417394483947939508395393956939600396303966139692397223975339783398143984539873399043993439965399954002640057400874011840148401794021040238402694029940330403604039140422404524048340513405444057540603406344066440695407254075640787408174084840878409094094040969410004103041061410914112241153411834121441244412754130641334413654139541426414564148741518415484157941609416404167141699417304176041791418214185241883419134194441974420054203642064420954212542156421864221742248422784230942339423704240142430424614249142522425524258342614110148884646900895103340591859474421072408712997243110940677971075865114262418660692781160092612677171142959157168208311013103426890634110783733289700331137038224450235111679226409959909121850894347440231242433353496411812252167585248812126896699822459641328653866929275813351606121318145134081055440927281296797928471894713619392434367088143576578138179231509218792763344715752141625393705159741476392170381624588692915244715961946131990337158166634405606991596268567466747615854045132050956160762782421028591674471548787969116334608788312481167136836594916961724103293485745617540016237536971184317397396999281833207803473638519081906293617161199528158418133362015627484786143521495947913924032218083936204276442354434329164940125568449301383946244569562533616392392098972026799324768457163719559259133315331014382621527584284674826443486642972855246776974677741692522251779160873425363596849993599255718459950524222543332082009850425755097037285197263905469237608912593318215612296269111264944554352772336103456553228413595450075206282512675271448142755300091516830227662953436071924283321999650090952858120804002444629274590427040774314817804441657153177213234675698932724829006272378344643433993104513357024175828066833541251801571748340849392335919133573122662643302134183224213506169350375186287367593498251493609266634218858110597834333267389762584413368122399944071733998101148189912334494512142795573371605936289772133754249508694474336728934548908533149571666931522831544831262756059321576109118041663364182590872654433313630471808207345352304220459553602010422381642353506087423034153511404375039457388026730482139434188411671450271744330063747749886421923848037816734253178733277496646190270333054864454404709212399464278353529314546427285481394055114540367249408701545841124640575002469076108389668847569518484822714849610768837257251060571175497652219113860765338492514839465369294843558030123659847601745376581057473128124445944394704277905596145950343427344960032520567863524614445442972190172910554497265868140495541039832423297543007691886491815371693301544380252432959673518953528883825581519765406434421783125752892673579868639554995535038222757554936841166908551543447906696125637801167088788657228607789353605575252875755654567950807540961575797433537416528573133681365925715511663633801610754124923718312337523635162123404735230715880167218252724277206795183511682380451475985133054437969212552622290028893799520491768101300335192278665029281450635738492353615078156340236386551021488843485043513646773187677665083519832107603248375870074608462508314598385507925268571318619042852184159214284254521628972131248554191254093339198585232375325283725845509247309335557767157307764609593111186249949546161219094094592654773180599687912503152135379287295149766029792115163411843563236063692083157713540857190831538127088974503174200586004758054979499215967270571947536747268892087788668714567833349511720355827928642302366600225106747576396402285420570113652974281025352986455580729791857567329116090210022649469842354643846346355313413052864342027491780147668002375855000886775240605615865267375078330068803658099901409815496233192816727965167131078552540018674691151011573536987953442583287466625072738788234713691521499241957238694169177803971793642853250548699884060217257537360129583255957972237039097739091728638025868266767966835670147050482209445615305849787895714812564137769813515439796780750502764271417809031126182080138078000781649011678968109588554389780000442351743847907302670362232982521940949887469774792464073246567541607708880763873188239184893966696953342110148546843727482284168568164592314229058669907460484101416670028005841815364726036177634292644162067518287266517983125485561662362591028781749627913830961134966319400177769446392149927453023662647807316842243621755084290590616389060372158093465128667668604236454503711708577364536047495606406623250136877504976370927279553024363244932772003528636143498551355266355779990150757647521485590334586922192146698701170714589328632549758205028463395178161839371290312886033501192088568816590408878332148698689561611674479293629886653179825347924837850757708360031927344283254956769909807824201775560706285394650126758993839434877515595628800987149600684889065832057726926918696888484690189495394480839779789087039133391421863001611292771298553107031643975291118372363297819930836093202313829167348572263920392620931197582674Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol3466934700347313475934790348203485134881349123494334973350043503435065350963512535156351863521735247352783530935339353703540035431354623549035521355513558235612356433567435704357353576535796358273585535886359163594735977360083603936069361003613036161361923622036251362813631236342363733640436434364653649536526365573658636617366473667836708367393677036800368313686136892369233695136982370123704337073371043713537165371963722637257372883731637347373773740837438374693750037530375613759137622376533768137712377423777337803378343786537895379263795637987380183804738078381083813938169382003823138261382923832238353383843841238443384733850438534385653859638626386573868738718387493877738808388383886938899389303896138991390223905239083391143914239173392033923439264392953932639356393873941739448394793950839539395693960039630396613969239722397533978339814398453987339904399343996539995400264005740087401184014840179402104023840269402994033040360403914042240452404834051340544405754060340634406644069540725407564078740817408484087840909409404096941000410304106141091411224115341183412144124441275413064133441365413954142641456414874151841548415794160941640416714169941730417604179141821418524188341913419444197442005420364206442095421254215642186422174224842278423094233942370424014243042461424914252242552425834261411018462101362837934799991085448004538323111929118787182351207652511407176612019125390204581117484546864171731138109225682759411830542971141973121282349239248191253561020678453113125047134317747138373303172500361331459748985528213803323105317908144737919185125151412776697511663614531058211188315137577152931888721415729437616425115318985323494783165982278309038621803231471549395617904050860922647176145960706541091733942085083835175478753683071291781330453112814217978309170999982178327747582607391891163979836075817798727619506824189722689263713871946922853862876201326619703110722104247709741140121084225371972662212855164715988862206722706401835322669441690595415238021656835493992409319476336215824715883382021251271921183062991962754716579502454626218979196217438257775040245115282671023723013445526347004714041855255795955077359592495813923487551426251544884444464257360170460037412686083540701638126872519870418432268999567132061262705837055829019925763194593147083265313757663309472813103200541033527419823254249551277010409615451362676529979786414226160056073535038263894797652999412548730262056363225800821930099183269664772640791342707517913393063628270088014648396313954310549318153084717264241954307157328397901933299419518611299136098849970540673374596302831080134120070774442652341385979728731753396520803376895345726418142448733666639557515736237492416134674511343543009042022533332642022114852532434638542450811315841698852292073039414153229354430189376200790483316853805490444573357411439819244935075011608249249360984302969547423856135399925536837040956933772726354401578979658723774972210786050840695295174214756416994515826385033964521149932298139713282327467319427164404503527264170307833354900940084206535718971410646261433761244217189272270611745540752200966779456751429607118284972013362131246351043335537376455539648008468581965376016632204691248114327415071871465643724717227545473136402847931445785433903947054319063502047815646472216278699063479607213661057945178227960527846352191618525558194503566656014366215072099607706301949091279752110903474678311307085914813726995314497449313263458100307501108068680081651265560301474542535683580046564785086503081795148954583264570743744560523185534007515884008061665413858330466678433295622111342960827866909373871666130868051874230552771652422845510701696432876208278608866200600401871004659472507041330465932874203479539697809804734914257004524104654454705380793625480346959025919015347688813432197833827357071618484301576055052128972793782966226803700147344207548094170970392760506973007753442576737939978018203711477063777852829118623665779019542537975168470879331063159292969340707904458913438647549674528465612369693250484829245469892748812978175263532882565884241246206833661953571965958747281414049210197798367540078193102939236528189951046893064884057110450275014424337105381618272956461035480834966252810098081586249346103444040903827289943765319962205110100628217884611012827363731696104489043958535041025208883265320710924810397674245105958862062210699973907685915891710079521394402054104113593977485571045082886122542310633415292259892107173767394075751033610606190315107818092913984761091714256162410911487792520462763107169501545471921136118889613764111388603444944021115574053252049810939037910685213114249390356399391083133347816519510328737942111374108260563452860941083193489388158411210933463883606105110348877333521050495950956824310526830835267162104791863989067431062821090868559510400777823450634102113172546186561060003146855022697107312284647369906353909062158296792111202812716948336196247350049135711396291183690494702807101941926996967356997999572105795140647295866841122666457979433169013834081008090404106009810012515188045546101181772608249919920326422666829806500597293140997560167322182769688378268213806910137938396615464102906867144372699764410705174233597071424363883869524017194325919595544845253305679622646217934274796239452751736962965375063369090821012347317827440610770514966463814109420569583346841208711039285353212664209478560323141025217416688541386837757319192514666752333325439139155359455648431403916156690523913166501323067976136168615008235161328539985817047137418197702979161294379107077740413338408429152194132004225939526151384230634300615614456614056202426138838285506816291402147282693308713284924859334293145344916066784191457470854495409713932867530051409140675983590670087030 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

Performance Stats

Performance stats (2)

Correlations

Annual Returns

Calendar Year Returns

MLM Index 3X1995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420150218999999999999970311015404060000000000000370000000000000007E-202110000000000000240000000000000001E-30151022600000000000001014599999999999999005-008-90000000000000011E-30379-96999999999999989E-299000000000000005E-2013400000000000001-017199999999999999-27999999999999997E-2025390999999999999998E-2Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015031303639999999999999901749999999999999902690000000000000252999999999999999E-297000000000000003E-2008013300000000000001031700573999999999999996E-2025011203439999999999999712E-271999999999999995E-2-72999999999999995E-2-01189999999999999901102310000000000000142000000000000003E-27030 Portfolio1995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420150265000000000000010145999999999999990218999999999999970196999999999999980182-55999999999999994E-2-88000000000000009E-2-0138000000000000010247011469000000000000006E-2015174999999999999997E-2-03070238999999999999990135000000000000012E-301350000000000000102280000000000000190999999999999998E-2-2E-3

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 19

The Credit Suisse MF Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLM 3x Index Correlations

bull Both MLM and Credit Suisse exhibit similar negative correlations with US equities

bull MLM and Credit Suisse indices are highly correlated with one another

Correlations ndash various periods ending 93016

SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM 7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099MLM Index 3X -054 -056 MLM Index 3X -023 -026

Credit Suisse Index -059 -055 080 Credit Suisse Index -021 -020 082

SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM 7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099MLM Index 3X -031 -033 MLM Index 3X -036 -036

Credit Suisse Index -027 -027 076 Credit Suisse Index -021 -021 066

1 Year Correlation 3 Year Correlation

10 Year Correlation5 Year Correlation

SampP 500 7030 MLM 7030 Portfolio 098MLM Index 3X -027 -026

Credit Suisse Index -018 -016 066

20 Year Correlation

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 20

Systematic Trend Following modeled with the MLM 3X IndexTM in the AL study Long history calculated back to pre-1970 PCA used data going back to 1970 Simple captures the beta captures big down markets reasonable for modeling However has only one lookback period (12 months) slow to respond to trends Investible but not inclusive of the full opportunity set (no equities)

Benchmark recommendation Credit Suisse Managed Futures Liquid IndexTM15 vol Diversified across 18 deep and liquid futures contracts in major markets Diversified across 16 lookback horizons from trading 30 days to 12 months Utilizes a moving average crossover method to determine the signal Equally risk weighted over 288 potentially different signals (long or short) Most comparable to the strategies that will be sourced

Recommended RISIC Mandate Benchmark

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 21

Due Diligence Plan Update Relating To STF and Platform Manager

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 22

Due Diligence Process Outline Platform Manager

bull Provide a short list of platform implementation platform managers

Draft DDQ prepared to be issued

bull Send DDQ to short list platform managers

bull Conduct a review of platform managers DDQ responses - rate proposals

PCA and Rhode Island investment staff

bull Conduct onsite due diligence at platform managers offices in NYC

PCA and Rhode Island investment staff

bull Platform manager recommendation

PCA memo to SIC SIC interview recommended platform manager

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 23

Due Diligence Process Outline STF Managers

bull Provide a short list of systematic trend following managers

bull Draft DDQ prepared to be issued

bull Send a DDQ to short list systematic trend following managers

bull Conduct a review of STF managers DDQ responses - rate proposals

bull PCA and Rhode Island investment staff

bull Systematic trend following managers recommendation

bull PCA memo to SIC

bull SIC interview recommended systematic trend following managers

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 24

Other Implementation Crisis Risk OffsetSM Class Managers

Other bull Platform manager to conduct operational due diligence at recommended STF

Managerrsquos office

bull STF Managers hired contracting other administration 1Q 2017

bull Fund long-duration Fixed Income and systematic trend following accounts pari passu

bull Primary source of funds ndash Equity HF portfolio redemptions

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 25

Appendix

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 26

Model Output Focus Portfolio Comparison of Trend IndicesFocus Portfolio

Line Strategic Class Trend

MLM 3x Index

TrendCS MF Index

1 US Equity 200 2002 Non-US Equity 200 2003 Private Growth 150 1504 Income Class 60 605 Crisis Risk Offset 80 806 Inflation Protection 100 1007 IG Fixed Income 115 1158 Absolute Return 65 659 Cash 30 30

10 Total 1000 1000

Asset Only Statistics11 Median Scenario Comp Return (22-year period) 73 7312 Average Scenario Standard Deviation (22-year period) 118 12113 Sharpe Ratio (22-year period) 041 04014 Sortino Ratio (22-year period) 074 074

15 Best Year Worst Year 298 -208

306 -210

16 Average 2-year Loss of Worst 10 -160 -164AssetLiability Statistics

17 Percent of Scenarios lt50 [during first 5-years] 75 7918 Median Funded Ratio [end of 5-years] 600 59919 Average Funded Ratio of Worst 10 [end of 5-years] 477 47620 Median Funded Ratio [end of 22-years] 994 99121 Average Funded Ratio of Worst 10 [end of 22-years] 671 66522 Median Avg Ann Employer Cntrbs Rate [during 22-yrs] 206 20623 Average of Yrs w Employer Cntrbs Rate gt30 [during 22-yrs] 44 47

bull For modeling purposes both indices have same volatility assumptions

bull Modeling the Focus Portfolio with the CS MF Index results in the same long-term return (line 11) and slightly higher risk (line 12)

bull Portfolio results are similar regardless of the trend following index used in modeling the total portfolio

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 27

Comparing Modeling of MLM 3x and CS MF IndexMLM 3x Index Credits Suisse MF Index

1970 1607 9491971 648 -5801972 278 12791973 9190 63231974 1458 51501975 -620 -20551976 851 14651977 374 15591978 -178 4531979 2107 31971980 -568 4861981 2839 18891982 1278 13801983 -1005 -11941984 1281 0881985 239 5561986 456 2281987 643 10851988 188 -10381989 809 0551990 657 3771991 -604 -7281992 -557 -12351993 481 14301994 549 -7851995 384 14781996 409 21071997 077 0061998 992 10741999 -564 -12982000 3782 0122001 043 0492002 -972 11652003 1191 39572004 992 0172005 456 1152006 -1329 24292007 -461 4192008 4324 42422009 -811 -3752010 1370 5092011 1740 -16162012 -1910 -22872013 -127 10762014 2995 28432015 1359 086

-4000

-2000

000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Annual Modeled Returns

$0

$500

$1000

$1500

$2000

$2500

Growth of $100

MLM 3x Credit Suisse Managed Futures

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 28

The Credit Suisse Managed Futures Indextrade is a systematic trend following strategy that trades a total of 18 futures contracts providing liquid and diversified exposure to market trends across asset classes geographies and time horizons The strategy tracks 16 time horizon signals to identify trends across various horizons ranging from shorter-term moving average (60 trading days) to longer-term moving average (360 trading days) The average length of moving average signal utilized is a 210 trading days moving average

bull Shortest signal compares the 60 (trading) day MA (moving average) versus 5 day MA

bull Longest signal compares the 360 (trading) day MA (moving average) versus 5 day MA

bull For each of the 18 different futures contracts (markets) total return index

- If average price in most recent 5 days is gt average price over 60 days =gt Buy the market (go long)

- If average price in most recent 5 days is lt average price over 60 days=gt Sell the market (go short)

bull Signals are equally weighted resulting in a portfolio of long and short exposures When signals align (strong trends) the index is more long or more short

Recommended Benchmark Index

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 29

The Credit Suisse Managed Futures Indextrade Markets Traded

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 30

bull Diversifies and balances risk across the four major futures market typesbull Rebalancing incorporates recent trailing volatility of each instrument traded

The Credit Suisse Managed Futures Indextrade Risk Allocation

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 31

Instruments Forwards

bull Agreement to buysell an asset at a future time for a specified price Long position = agree to buy at the future date Short position = agree to sell at the future date

bull Over-the-counter instrument (ie customized have counterparty risk)

bull Different than an option in that both buyer and seller have obligations

bull Essentially a contract that states Asset type and amount Future date of trade Future price of trade Settlement options (ie cash payment or delivery of asset)

bull Currency forwards can be more liquid than currency futures

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 32

Instruments Futures

bull Futures = analogous to forwards but exchange tradedstandardized Exchanges (eg CME Group) provide numerous services

o Guarantee contracts will be honored backed by exchange with is backed by all of the exchange members (de minimis counterparty risk)

o Facilitate transactionso Set margin requirementso Organize daily settlementmarking to marketo Arrange settlementdelivery procedures

bull Extremely liquid instruments

bull Vast majority of futures contracts do not lead to delivery

bull Regulated by the US Government Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 33

Futures Transaction Example

bull November crude oil contract (one contract = 1000 barrels of oil)

bull ldquoPricerdquo of contract = delivery price (ie futures are free) 1000 barrels $43 = $43000 of exposure (ie notional value)

o Longbuy position = agree to buy 1000 barrels in November $43barrelo Shortsell position = agree to sell 1000 barrels in November $43barrel

Initial margin = $3190 (ie money that must be deposited to trade)o Typically equal to roughly one-day maximum price fluctuationo Margin = embedded leverageo Exchanges require daily settlementmark to market

bull At contract expiration (or anytime while contract is traded) | longbuy ldquoSpotrdquo price = $50

o Gain = ($50-$43) x 1000 = $7000

ldquoSpotrdquo price = $40o Loss = ($40-$43) x 1000 = ($3000)

Gainslosses for shortsell positionare the opposite

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 34

Leverage in Trend Following Strategies

bull Futures contain embedded leverage

bull Trend Following strategies leverage asymp 0x-7x Averagefull-cycle leverage asymp 3x

bull Without leverage (ie 1x) strategy volatility may be asymp 6 (ie bond-like)

bull Leveragerisk oversight is key component of strategy selection

bull Leverage protections Futures have daily price limits and daily settlement

o Price limit = maximum change in contract priceo Exchanges will close out positions if failed settlement

Long and short positions partially offset leverage risks

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 35

CROSM Implementation Considerations (LongShort aspects)bull Long position ndash give up cash to buy a security (traditional)

bull Short position ndash sell an un-owned security receive cash liable for securityrsquos position

bull Because of the liability short positions require collateral as security collateral levels based on potential security movements not total value of positions

bull Minimum collateral requirements allow managers to apply leverage

bull Unlike typical leveraged situations collateral requirements re-set every day

bull Longshort portfolios contain many offsetting long and short positions itrsquos the net position that matters

bull Longshort portfolios utilize ldquoprimary brokersrdquo to effect these types of trades

bull In total across entire CROSM class hundreds of netted ls positions

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 36

DISCLOSURES This document is provided for informational purposes only It does not constitute an offer of securities of any of the issuers that may be described herein Informationcontained herein may have been provided by third parties including investment firms providing information on returns and assets under management and may not have beenindependently verified The past performance information contained in this report is not necessarily indicative of future results and there is no assurance that the investment in question willachieve comparable results or that the Firm will be able to implement its investment strategy or achieve its investment objectives The actual realized value of currently unrealizedinvestments (if any) will depend on a variety of factors including future operating results the value of the assets and market conditions at the time of disposition any related transactioncosts and the timing and manner of sale all of which may differ from the assumptions and circumstances on which any current unrealized valuations are based

Neither PCA nor PCArsquos officers employees or agents make any representation or warranty express or implied in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained inthis document or any oral information provided in connection herewith or any data subsequently generated herefrom and accept no responsibility obligation or liability (whether direct orindirect in contract tort or otherwise) in relation to any of such information PCA and PCArsquos officers employees and agents expressly disclaim any and all liability that may be based on thisdocument and any errors therein or omissions therefrom Neither PCA nor any of PCArsquos officers employees or agents make any representation of warranty express or implied that anytransaction has been or may be effected on the terms or in the manner stated in this document or as to the achievement or reasonableness of future projections management targetsestimates prospects or returns if any Any views or terms contained herein are preliminary only and are based on financial economic market and other conditions prevailing as of thedate of this document and are therefore subject to change

The information contained in this report may include forward-looking statements Forward-looking statements include a number of risks uncertainties and other factors beyond the control ofthe Firm which may result in material differences in actual results performance or other expectations The opinions estimates and analyses reflect PCArsquos current judgment which maychange in the future

Any tables graphs or charts relating to past performance included in this report are intended only to illustrate investment performance for the historical periods shown Such tables graphsand charts are not intended to predict future performance and should not be used as the basis for an investment decision

All trademarks or product names mentioned herein are the property of their respective owners Indices are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index The index dataprovided is on an ldquoas isrdquo basis In no event shall the index providers or its affiliates have any liability of any kind in connection with the index data or the portfolio described herein Copyingor redistributing the index data is strictly prohibited

The Russell indices are either registered trademarks or trade names of Frank Russell Company in the US andor other countries

The MSCI indices are trademarks and service marks of MSCI or its subsidiaries

Standard and Poorrsquos (SampP) is a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc SampP indices including the SampP 500 are a registered trademark of The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc

CBOE not SampP calculates and disseminates the BXM Index The CBOE has a business relationship with Standard amp Poors on the BXM CBOE and Chicago Board Options Exchange areregistered trademarks of the CBOE and SPX and CBOE SampP 500 BuyWrite Index BXM are servicemarks of the CBOE The methodology of the CBOE SampP 500 BuyWrite Index is owned by CBOEand may be covered by one or more patents or pending patent applications

The Barclays Capital indices (formerly known as the Lehman indices) are trademarks of Barclays Capital Inc

The Citigroup indices are trademarks of Citicorp or its affiliates

The Merrill Lynch indices are trademarks of Merrill Lynch amp Co or its affiliates

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MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15x 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol 7030 Portfolio
1995 0219 0228 0265 1995 0219 0313 0265
1996 0311 0264 0146 1996 0311 0364 0146
1997 0154 014 0219 1997 0154 0175 0219
1998 0406 0209 0197 1998 0406 0269 0197
1999 007 0066 0182 1999 007 0053 0182
2000 0211 0087 -0056 2000 0211 0097 -0056
2001 0004 007 -0088 2001 0004 008 -0088
2002 0151 0112 -0138 2002 0151 0133 -0138
2003 0226 0213 0247 2003 0226 0317 0247
2004 0146 0042 0114 2004 0146 005 0114
2005 005 0063 0069 2005 005 0074 0069
2006 -008 0188 0151 2006 -008 025 0151
2007 -0009 0095 0075 2007 -0009 0112 0075
2008 0379 023 -0307 2008 0379 0344 -0307
2009 -0097 0009 0239 2009 -0097 0012 0239
2010 0099 005 0135 2010 0099 0072 0135
2011 0134 -0048 0002 2011 0134 -0073 0002
2012 -0172 -008 0135 2012 -0172 -0119 0135
2013 -0028 0075 0228 2013 -0028 011 0228
2014 0253 0158 0091 2014 0253 0231 0091
2015 0091 0036 -0002 2015 0091 0042 -0002
Return 110 101 80 Return 110 131 80
StDev 153 93 146 StDev 153 134 146
Corr to 7030 -023 005 100 Corr to 7030 -023 004 100
1 Year Correlation 3 Year Correlation
SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM
7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099
MLM Index 3X -054 -056 MLM Index 3X -023 -026
Credit Suisse Index -059 -055 080 Credit Suisse Index -021 -020 082
5 Year Correlation 10 Year Correlation
SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM
7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099
MLM Index 3X -031 -033 MLM Index 3X -036 -036
Credit Suisse Index -027 -027 076 Credit Suisse Index -021 -021 066
20 Year Correlation
SampP 500 7030 MLM
7030 Portfolio 098
MLM Index 3X -027 -026
Credit Suisse Index -018 -016 066
Correlation to date Correlation to date
SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
SampP 500 Index 1 099 -054 -059 SampP 500 Index 1 099 -023 -021
7030 Portfolio 099 1 -056 -055 7030 Portfolio 099 1 -026 -02
MLM Index 3X -054 -056 1 08 MLM Index 3X -023 -026 1 082
Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -059 -055 08 1 Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -021 -02 082 1
Correlation to date Correlation to date
SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
5 5 5 5 10 Years 10 Years 10 Years 10 Years
SampP 500 Index 1 099 -031 -027 SampP 500 Index 1 099 -036 -021
7030 Portfolio 099 1 -033 -027 7030 Portfolio 099 1 -036 -021
MLM Index 3X -031 -033 1 076 MLM Index 3X -036 -036 1 066
Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -027 -027 076 1 Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -021 -021 066 1
Correlation to date
SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
5 5 5 5
SampP 500 Index 1 098 -027 -018
7030 Portfolio 098 1 -026 -016
MLM Index 3X -027 -026 1 066
Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -018 -016 066 1
MLM 3x Credit Suisse 15 Vol 7030 SampP 500
Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio
Periods Ending 9302016
1 Year 85 124 07 24 162 01 125 105 12 154 125 12
3 Years 139 145 10 130 156 08 79 90 09 112 108 10
5 Years 33 129 03 46 138 03 120 92 13 164 111 15 SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
10 Years 58 163 03 79 144 05 62 124 04 72 153 04 Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date
20 Years 98 141 05 117 147 06 71 121 04 79 154 04 Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g) Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g) Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g) Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g)
1 Year 1543 1246 122 1252 1052 116 846 1244 066 24 162 01
Statistical Measures 3 Years 1116 1083 102 792 897 087 1392 1446 095 130 156 08
Largest Drawdown - period Mar-09 - May-09 Mar-11 - Nov-12 Nov-07 - Feb-09 Nov-07 - Feb-09 5 Years 1637 1112 146 12 915 13 329 1288 025 46 138 03
Largest Drawdown - -2509 -277 -4216 -5095 10 Years 724 1525 041 621 1239 043 58 1627 03 79 144 05
Largest Drawdown - of months 3 21 16 16 20 Years 791 1535 036 711 1212 039 977 1408 053 117 147 06
Recovery Period Jun-09 - Jul-11 Dec-12 - Nov-14 Mar-09 - Apr-11 Mar-09 - Mar-12
Recovery Duration 26 24 26 37 00237 01617
01298 0156
Crisis Period Returns 00464 01383
LTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98) 121 143 -88 -100 00787 01439
Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02) 113 127 -145 -206 01172 01466
Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09) 326 277 -309 -388
MLM Credit Suisse 7030
Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio
Periods Ending 9302016
1 Year 85 124 07 14 90 01 125 105 12
3 Years 139 145 10 90 103 09 79 90 09
5 Years 33 129 03 35 92 04 120 92 13
10 Years 58 163 03 58 97 05 62 124 04
20 Years 98 141 05 91 100 07 71 121 04
Statistical Measures
Largest Drawdown - period Mar-09 - May-09 Mar-11 - Nov-12 Nov-07 - Feb-09
Largest Drawdown - -2509 -1486 -4216
Largest Drawdown - of months 3 21 16
Recovery Period Jun-09 - Jul-11 Dec-12 - Nov-14 Mar-09 - Apr-11
Recovery Duration 26 24 26
Full - history semi-deviation 83 54 83
Full - history skewness 03 02 -08
Full- history kurtosis 47 -01 15
Crisis Period Returns
LTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98) 121 104 -88
Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02) 113 157 -145
Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09) 326 183 -309
SampP 500 Index MLM Index 3X woInt Credit Suisse Index 7030 Portfolio
Return Return Return Return
Total Total Total Total
Jan-73 -149 NA NA NA
Feb-73 -352 NA NA NA
Mar-73 009 NA NA NA
Apr-73 -384 NA NA NA
May-73 -164 NA NA NA
Jun-73 -04 NA NA NA
Jul-73 406 NA NA NA
Aug-73 -342 NA NA NA
Sep-73 427 NA NA NA
Oct-73 013 NA NA NA
Nov-73 -1112 NA NA NA
Dec-73 196 NA NA NA
Jan-74 -071 NA NA NA
Feb-74 -005 NA NA NA
Mar-74 -202 NA NA NA
Apr-74 -359 NA NA NA
May-74 -302 NA NA NA
Jun-74 -112 NA NA NA
Jul-74 -742 NA NA NA
Aug-74 -864 NA NA NA
Sep-74 -115 NA NA NA
Oct-74 168 NA NA NA
Nov-74 -49 NA NA NA
Dec-74 -158 NA NA NA
Jan-75 1273 NA NA NA
Feb-75 639 NA NA NA
Mar-75 255 NA NA NA
Apr-75 509 NA NA NA
May-75 476 NA NA NA
Jun-75 477 NA NA NA
Jul-75 -644 NA NA NA
Aug-75 -176 NA NA NA
Sep-75 -311 NA NA NA
Oct-75 654 NA NA NA
Nov-75 281 NA NA NA
Dec-75 -082 NA NA NA
Jan-76 1217 NA NA NA
Feb-76 -084 NA NA NA
Mar-76 338 NA NA NA
Apr-76 -08 NA NA NA
May-76 -112 NA NA NA
Jun-76 441 NA NA NA
Jul-76 -05 NA NA NA
Aug-76 -02 NA NA NA
Sep-76 258 NA NA NA
Oct-76 -191 NA NA NA
Nov-76 -045 NA NA NA
Dec-76 558 NA NA NA
Jan-77 -473 NA NA NA
Feb-77 -182 NA NA NA
Mar-77 -104 NA NA NA
Apr-77 038 NA NA NA
May-77 -198 NA NA NA
Jun-77 493 NA NA NA
Jul-77 -124 NA NA NA
Aug-77 -172 NA NA NA
Sep-77 015 NA NA NA
Oct-77 -394 NA NA NA
Nov-77 312 NA NA NA
Dec-77 071 NA NA NA
Jan-78 -573 NA NA NA
Feb-78 -202 NA NA NA
Mar-78 297 NA NA NA
Apr-78 901 NA NA NA
May-78 086 NA NA NA
Jun-78 -132 NA NA NA
Jul-78 584 NA NA NA
Aug-78 302 NA NA NA
Sep-78 -031 NA NA NA
Oct-78 -874 NA NA NA
Nov-78 213 NA NA NA
Dec-78 194 NA NA NA
Jan-79 443 NA NA NA
Feb-79 -321 NA NA NA
Mar-79 598 NA NA NA
Apr-79 061 NA NA NA
May-79 -218 NA NA NA
Jun-79 434 NA NA NA
Jul-79 133 NA NA NA
Aug-79 576 NA NA NA
Sep-79 044 NA NA NA
Oct-79 -639 NA NA NA
Nov-79 472 NA NA NA
Dec-79 22 NA NA NA
Jan-80 621 NA NA NA
Feb-80 -001 NA NA NA
Mar-80 -975 NA NA NA
Apr-80 462 NA NA NA
May-80 515 NA NA NA
Jun-80 316 NA NA NA
Jul-80 696 NA NA NA
Aug-80 101 NA NA NA
Sep-80 294 NA NA NA
Oct-80 202 NA NA NA
Nov-80 1065 NA NA NA
Dec-80 -301 NA NA NA
Jan-81 -42 NA NA NA
Feb-81 172 NA NA NA
Mar-81 399 NA NA NA
Apr-81 -194 NA NA NA
May-81 025 NA NA NA
Jun-81 -062 NA NA NA
Jul-81 021 NA NA NA
Aug-81 -578 NA NA NA
Sep-81 -492 NA NA NA
Oct-81 54 NA NA NA
Nov-81 412 NA NA NA
Dec-81 -256 NA NA NA
Jan-82 -13 NA NA NA
Feb-82 -559 NA NA NA
Mar-82 -052 NA NA NA
Apr-82 452 NA NA NA
May-82 -341 NA NA NA
Jun-82 -15 NA NA NA
Jul-82 -177 NA NA NA
Aug-82 1214 NA NA NA
Sep-82 124 NA NA NA
Oct-82 1151 NA NA NA
Nov-82 404 NA NA NA
Dec-82 193 NA NA NA
Jan-83 372 NA NA NA
Feb-83 229 NA NA NA
Mar-83 369 NA NA NA
Apr-83 788 NA NA NA
May-83 -087 NA NA NA
Jun-83 389 NA NA NA
Jul-83 -295 NA NA NA
Aug-83 15 NA NA NA
Sep-83 138 NA NA NA
Oct-83 -116 NA NA NA
Nov-83 211 NA NA NA
Dec-83 -052 NA NA NA
Jan-84 -056 NA NA NA
Feb-84 -352 NA NA NA
Mar-84 173 NA NA NA
Apr-84 092 NA NA NA
May-84 -556 NA NA NA
Jun-84 214 NA NA NA
Jul-84 -124 NA NA NA
Aug-84 1104 NA NA NA
Sep-84 002 NA NA NA
Oct-84 038 NA NA NA
Nov-84 -112 NA NA NA
Dec-84 264 NA NA NA
Jan-85 779 NA NA NA
Feb-85 123 NA NA NA
Mar-85 006 NA NA NA
Apr-85 -009 NA NA NA
May-85 578 NA NA NA
Jun-85 157 NA NA NA
Jul-85 -014 NA NA NA
Aug-85 -086 NA NA NA
Sep-85 -313 NA NA NA
Oct-85 462 NA NA NA
Nov-85 686 NA NA NA
Dec-85 484 NA NA NA
Jan-86 056 NA NA NA
Feb-86 747 NA NA NA
Mar-86 558 NA NA NA
Apr-86 -113 NA NA NA
May-86 532 NA NA NA
Jun-86 169 NA NA NA
Jul-86 -559 NA NA NA
Aug-86 741 NA NA NA
Sep-86 -827 NA NA NA
Oct-86 577 NA NA NA
Nov-86 243 NA NA NA
Dec-86 -255 NA NA NA
Jan-87 1347 NA NA NA
Feb-87 395 NA NA NA
Mar-87 289 NA NA NA
Apr-87 -089 NA NA NA
May-87 087 NA NA NA
Jun-87 505 NA NA NA
Jul-87 507 NA NA NA
Aug-87 373 NA NA NA
Sep-87 -219 NA NA NA
Oct-87 -2153 NA NA NA
Nov-87 -824 NA NA NA
Dec-87 761 NA NA NA
Jan-88 421 NA NA 349
Feb-88 466 NA NA 436
Mar-88 -309 NA NA 036
Apr-88 11 NA NA 066
May-88 086 NA NA -09
Jun-88 458 NA NA 252
Jul-88 -038 NA NA 02
Aug-88 -34 NA NA -286
Sep-88 425 NA NA 359
Oct-88 282 NA NA 344
Nov-88 -143 NA NA 034
Dec-88 174 NA NA 116
Jan-89 731 NA NA 398
Feb-89 -248 NA NA -089
Mar-89 232 NA NA 07
Apr-89 52 NA NA 323
May-89 405 NA NA 14
Jun-89 -057 NA NA 004
Jul-89 903 NA NA 742
Aug-89 195 NA NA -04
Sep-89 -041 NA NA 113
Oct-89 -232 NA NA -171
Nov-89 204 NA NA 23
Dec-89 24 NA NA 194
Jan-90 -671 NA NA -478
Feb-90 13 NA NA -08
Mar-90 264 NA NA -117
Apr-90 -249 NA NA -177
May-90 975 NA NA 786
Jun-90 -067 NA NA -001
Jul-90 -032 NA NA 019
Aug-90 -904 NA NA -722
Sep-90 -487 NA NA -53
Oct-90 -043 NA NA 295
Nov-90 646 NA NA 26
Dec-90 279 NA NA 235
Jan-91 435 NA NA 348
Feb-91 715 NA NA 62
Mar-91 242 NA NA 049
Apr-91 024 NA NA 058
May-91 431 NA NA 257
Jun-91 -458 NA NA -379
Jul-91 466 NA NA 377
Aug-91 237 NA NA 166
Sep-91 -167 NA NA 095
Oct-91 134 NA NA 152
Nov-91 -403 NA NA -26
Dec-91 1144 NA NA 76
Jan-92 -186 -50186134107 NA -101
Feb-92 13 -11806985257 NA 03
Mar-92 -194 -34682100213 NA -245
Apr-92 294 04856690806 NA 135
May-92 049 36691977834 NA 196
Jun-92 -149 3995994645 NA -144
Jul-92 409 58382478439 NA 241
Aug-92 -205 21392596519 NA 003
Sep-92 118 -10417441781 NA 069
Oct-92 035 -11426309261 NA -063
Nov-92 34 -24243841368 NA 231
Dec-92 123 03309287484 NA 157
Jan-93 084 12125566229 NA 109
Feb-93 136 59842293696 NA 136
Mar-93 211 -06484088187 NA 282
Apr-93 -242 09183032136 NA 027
May-93 268 -00124707027 NA 196
Jun-93 029 75565231659 NA 064
Jul-93 -04 34694235802 NA 068
Aug-93 379 26998187389 NA 356
Sep-93 -077 -35544940483 NA -032
Oct-93 207 12906000348 NA 154
Nov-93 -095 39231376084 NA -251
Dec-93 121 23140907663 NA 262
Jan-94 34 -16392143954 NA 357
Feb-94 -271 -5375365439 NA -19
Mar-94 -436 -17526970615 NA -389
Apr-94 128 -31042584129 NA 106
May-94 164 21687630069 NA 058
Jun-94 -245 -02802505425 NA -136
Jul-94 328 -09170406074 NA 249
Aug-94 41 03148132864 NA 3
Sep-94 -245 49091708791 NA -203
Oct-94 225 33710507687 NA 14
Nov-94 -364 -02736669026 NA -3 SampP 500 Index MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol 7030 Portfolio
Dec-94 148 11635880505 NA 095 Dec-94 100 100 100 100
Jan-95 259 1488846469 18462 078 Jan-95 103 101 102 101
Feb-95 39 18245801927 -04746 274 Feb-95 107 103 101 104
Mar-95 295 37741988604 70854 257 Mar-95 110 107 109 106
Apr-95 294 20196669281 31179 254 Apr-95 113 109 112 109
May-95 4 4438151788 78944 291 May-95 117 114 121 112
Jun-95 232 15287989065 -04753 152 Jun-95 120 116 120 114
Jul-95 332 -14769041128 -2252 32 Jul-95 124 114 117 117
Aug-95 025 -36439459991 -31269 016 Aug-95 125 110 114 118
Sep-95 422 05926567612 39491 274 Sep-95 130 111 118 121
Oct-95 -036 2635846499 25163 -064 Oct-95 129 114 121 120
Nov-95 439 27162162082 33589 332 Nov-95 135 117 125 124
Dec-95 193 4331305919 47021 198 Dec-95 138 122 131 126
Jan-96 34 19634168588 54269 207 Jan-96 142 124 138 129
Feb-96 093 -13857157749 -37777 042 Feb-96 144 123 133 130
Mar-96 096 3570816298 36706 074 Mar-96 145 127 138 131
Apr-96 147 47035792726 48573 151 Apr-96 147 133 145 133
May-96 258 04897246276 -23907 119 May-96 151 134 141 134
Jun-96 038 04231657395 28546 021 Jun-96 151 134 145 134
Jul-96 -442 -32825387444 -5322 -362 Jul-96 145 130 138 130
Aug-96 211 50232432929 29044 183 Aug-96 148 136 142 132
Sep-96 563 54206924649 82056 405 Sep-96 156 144 153 137
Oct-96 276 51159466491 83507 144 Oct-96 160 151 166 139
Nov-96 756 43728165918 864 527 Nov-96 173 158 180 147
Dec-96 -198 14093703517 -07113 -113 Dec-96 169 160 179 145
Jan-97 625 17011191838 -16167 314 Jan-97 180 162 176 150
Feb-97 078 -17477703643 -15622 041 Feb-97 181 160 173 150
Mar-97 -411 -0910181567 12022 -309 Mar-97 174 158 175 145
Apr-97 597 09232176853 15126 349 Apr-97 184 160 178 151
May-97 609 -06805906276 09263 543 May-97 195 159 180 159
Jun-97 448 14017438969 -08095 375 Jun-97 204 161 178 165
Jul-97 796 41579104051 60499 584 Jul-97 220 167 189 174
Aug-97 -56 -24491709033 -58848 -401 Aug-97 208 163 178 167
Sep-97 548 23206853381 65934 476 Sep-97 219 167 190 175
Oct-97 -334 3155194786 26194 -317 Oct-97 212 172 195 170
Nov-97 463 1734137994 34076 24 Nov-97 222 175 201 174
Dec-97 172 50839377232 45191 168 Dec-97 226 184 210 177
Jan-98 111 -0540706989 01984 101 Jan-98 228 183 211 178
Feb-98 721 40902523842 09547 561 Feb-98 245 191 213 189
Mar-98 512 4564059454 36725 385 Mar-98 257 200 221 196
Apr-98 101 10197007162 2729 086 Apr-98 260 202 227 197
May-98 -172 66464318242 49967 -174 May-98 255 215 238 194
Jun-98 406 14535097859 12227 237 Jun-98 266 218 241 199
Jul-98 -106 79600070571 25845 -106 143 Jul-98 263 235 247 197
Aug-98 -1446 85969949752 100188 -1191 Aug-98 225 256 272 173
Sep-98 641 -43471273323 13057 462 Sep-98 239 245 275 181
Oct-98 813 -21914686666 -48215 62 Oct-98 259 239 262 192
Nov-98 606 35427775078 -16838 49 Nov-98 274 248 258 202
Dec-98 576 46223079694 36184 48 Dec-98 290 259 267 211
Jan-99 418 11652083769 -13599 243 Jan-99 302 262 263 217
Feb-99 -311 08705260303 -29127 -306 Feb-99 293 264 256 210
Mar-99 4 -66775958823 -24295 326 Mar-99 305 247 250 217
Apr-99 387 22077437514 51823 383 Apr-99 316 252 263 225
May-99 -236 05593377297 -19638 -207 May-99 309 254 257 220
Jun-99 555 0821055256 43706 406 Jun-99 326 256 269 229
Jul-99 -312 -05417097185 00435 -19 Jul-99 316 254 269 225
Aug-99 -049 12651757883 01021 -075 Aug-99 314 258 269 223
Sep-99 -274 24672781685 05889 -147 Sep-99 306 264 271 220
Oct-99 633 -17330628613 -47866 486 Oct-99 325 259 258 231
Nov-99 203 37710155755 29817 248 Nov-99 332 269 265 236
Dec-99 589 30182108515 60293 568 Dec-99 351 277 281 250
Jan-00 -502 24897212667 -25282 -359 Jan-00 334 284 274 241
Feb-00 -189 -05713037029 10256 122 Feb-00 327 283 277 244
Mar-00 978 -24716293218 -3378 621 Mar-00 359 276 268 259
Apr-00 -301 03990582414 -22613 -331 1573 Apr-00 348 277 262 250
May-00 -205 24192880579 0877 -232 May-00 341 283 264 245
Jun-00 247 0878887186 -34187 3 Jun-00 350 286 255 252
Jul-00 -156 24260079771 12301 -165 Jul-00 344 293 258 248
Aug-00 621 75396102385 45179 559 Aug-00 366 315 270 262
Sep-00 -528 09222855204 04031 -385 Sep-00 346 318 271 252
Oct-00 -042 299852918 44133 -131 Oct-00 345 327 283 248
Nov-00 -788 5315579778 110553 -68 Nov-00 318 345 314 231
Dec-00 049 -25942802121 -17463 193 Dec-00 319 336 308 236
1-Jan 355 -00863561154 -04261 284 Jan-01 331 335 307 243
1-Feb -912 16209515233 74179 -716 Feb-01 300 341 330 225
1-Mar -633 48299554873 94097 -52 Mar-01 281 357 361 213
1-Apr 777 -43323517245 -65179 61 Apr-01 303 342 337 227
1-May 067 24991627761 11086 031 May-01 305 350 341 227
1-Jun -243 -01569851257 00543 -165 Jun-01 298 350 341 223
1-Jul -098 -21829671963 -05079 -093 Jul-01 295 342 340 221
1-Aug -626 -26070979092 17884 -404 Aug-01 276 333 346 212
1-Sep -808 10636654952 60561 -685 Sep-01 254 337 367 198
1-Oct 191 09408124501 22528 233 Oct-01 259 340 375 203
1-Nov 767 -16137664028 -837 519 Nov-01 279 334 344 213
1-Dec 088 07970479005 -2992 094 Dec-01 281 337 333 215
2-Jan -146 01132698972 -26759 -115 Jan-02 277 338 324 213
2-Feb -193 -02410246265 -26221 -106 Feb-02 272 337 316 210
2-Mar 376 -64656658879 -37678 312 Mar-02 282 315 304 217
2-Apr -606 01559405489 -06737 -3 Apr-02 265 315 302 210
2-May -074 19425675286 49554 -043 May-02 263 322 317 209
2-Jun -712 46154392532 59609 -498 Jun-02 244 336 336 199
2-Jul -78 -09755577412 44704 -592 Jul-02 225 333 351 187
2-Aug 066 36669673432 29178 074 Aug-02 227 345 361 189
2-Sep -1087 42995914132 68228 -728 Sep-02 202 360 386 175
2-Oct 88 -18586716944 -39428 521 Oct-02 220 354 370 184
2-Nov 589 -06691963741 -43217 423 Nov-02 233 351 354 192
2-Dec -587 10504712371 65168 -333 Dec-02 219 388 377 185
3-Jan -262 79413180181 78029 -186 Jan-03 213 419 407 182
3-Feb -15 5839796145 24675 -082 Feb-03 210 443 417 180
3-Mar 097 -4822187841 -49263 039 Mar-03 212 422 396 181
3-Apr 824 08044165566 01717 619 Apr-03 230 425 397 192
3-May 527 86017617168 75621 492 May-03 242 462 427 202
3-Jun 128 -16232843116 -23723 11 Jun-03 245 454 417 204
3-Jul 176 -58470688666 -38819 084 Jul-03 249 428 401 206
3-Aug 195 -01285241001 24459 191 Aug-03 254 427 411 210
3-Sep -106 62607424571 26964 031 Sep-03 251 454 422 210
3-Oct 566 09634730462 79884 431 Oct-03 266 458 455 219
3-Nov 088 23264834944 02951 12 Nov-03 268 469 457 222
3-Dec 524 14110879536 8856 41 Dec-03 282 476 497 231
4-Jan 184 19478633231 26613 172 Jan-04 287 485 510 235
4-Feb 139 52879779623 57235 144 Feb-04 291 511 540 239
4-Mar -151 2268957551 -03792 -05 Mar-04 287 522 538 237
4-Apr -157 -56830338449 -105019 -233 Apr-04 282 493 481 232
4-May 137 -16566072328 -32214 087 May-04 286 484 466 234
4-Jun 194 -17215338796 -23435 168 Jun-04 292 476 455 238
4-Jul -331 -06069797015 -19673 -258 Jul-04 282 473 446 232
4-Aug 04 -05707405134 -31134 082 Aug-04 283 470 432 234
4-Sep 108 70162697766 75979 145 Sep-04 286 503 465 237
4-Oct 153 34033420009 3203 17 Oct-04 291 521 480 241
4-Nov 405 45583596598 79681 368 Nov-04 302 544 518 250
4-Dec 34 01240939032 07905 307 Dec-04 313 545 522 257
5-Jan -244 16755564551 -35158 -181 Jan-05 305 554 504 253
5-Feb 21 -20025648058 07235 196 Feb-05 311 543 507 258
5-Mar -177 -10751895082 -32131 -158 Mar-05 306 537 491 254
5-Apr -19 -2390258099 -3307 -143 Apr-05 300 524 475 250
5-May 318 08685813036 14103 272 May-05 310 529 481 257
5-Jun 014 2223478206 2443 083 Jun-05 310 541 493 259
5-Jul 372 -21671781188 16173 293 Jul-05 322 529 501 267
5-Aug -091 49286219575 23044 002 Aug-05 319 555 513 267
5-Sep 081 37034231946 44919 108 Sep-05 321 576 536 270
5-Oct -167 -41709576663 -50465 -191 Oct-05 316 552 509 264
5-Nov 378 22186228209 731 307 Nov-05 328 564 546 272
5-Dec 003 15087373486 26914 097 Dec-05 328 572 561 275
6-Jan 265 05184116785 49735 32 Jan-06 337 575 588 284
6-Feb 027 -12693666599 -08661 013 Feb-06 338 568 583 284
6-Mar 125 20763323239 66529 136 Mar-06 342 580 622 288
6-Apr 134 -11401031738 110633 149 Apr-06 346 573 691 292
6-May -288 -38328436628 -15079 -283 May-06 336 551 681 284
6-Jun 014 -17992981531 -41286 014 Jun-06 337 541 652 285
6-Jul 062 -32543371611 -14002 038 Jul-06 339 524 643 286
6-Aug 238 -01076272465 29098 232 Aug-06 347 523 662 292
6-Sep 258 07974403785 -03827 16 Sep-06 356 527 659 297
6-Oct 326 -29512764216 -00218 309 Oct-06 368 512 659 306
6-Nov 19 03172013357 58364 222 Nov-06 375 513 698 313
6-Dec 14 25165243518 03787 117 Dec-06 380 526 700 317
7-Jan 151 -10891073316 07036 127 Jan-07 386 520 705 321
7-Feb -196 -0242828355 -13437 -066 Feb-07 378 519 696 318
7-Mar 112 -24787732727 -10187 115 Mar-07 382 506 689 322
7-Apr 443 02879881174 68079 345 Apr-07 399 508 736 333
7-May 349 04724656451 33768 267 May-07 413 510 761 342
7-Jun -166 06726351642 29473 -111 Jun-07 406 514 783 338
7-Jul -31 -10308231752 -62002 -209 Jul-07 394 508 734 331
7-Aug 15 -48378452877 -4152 085 Aug-07 400 484 704 334
7-Sep 374 50760632525 70341 364 Sep-07 415 508 753 346
7-Oct 159 36478459472 64209 235 2672 Oct-07 421 527 802 354
7-Nov -418 -09519733939 -29049 -338 Nov-07 404 522 779 342
7-Dec -069 -00407441673 00631 -06 Dec-07 401 522 779 340
8-Jan -6 38885050267 87377 -527 Jan-08 377 542 847 322
8-Feb -325 79938792923 97517 -138 Feb-08 364 585 930 318
8-Mar -043 -01164410281 -17484 -069 Mar-08 363 585 913 316
8-Apr 487 -11768609649 -73215 412 Apr-08 381 578 847 329
8-May 13 26727320318 02045 143 May-08 385 593 848 334
8-Jun -843 38796643349 38908 -664 Jun-08 353 616 881 311
8-Jul -084 -111000927524 -63133 -116 Jul-08 350 548 826 308
8-Aug 145 -81389596386 09693 032 Aug-08 355 503 834 309
8-Sep -891 2350077992 4926 -863 Sep-08 323 515 875 282
8-Oct -1679 231353875038 118043 -1488 Oct-08 269 634 978 240
8-Nov -718 91409930423 52566 -464 Nov-08 250 692 1029 229
8-Dec 106 39012647249 17001 298 Dec-08 252 719 1047 236
9-Jan -843 36085657209 -01782 -629 Jan-09 231 745 1045 221
9-Feb -1065 17480110926 0841 -723 Feb-09 207 758 1054 205
9-Mar 876 -40891209192 -17399 626 Mar-09 225 727 1035 218
9-Apr 957 -52452980511 -24793 785 Apr-09 246 689 1010 235
9-May 559 -175764056892 24393 525 May-09 260 568 1034 247
9-Jun 02 26344903362 -3873 018 Jun-09 260 583 994 248
9-Jul 756 29911557926 15775 638 Jul-09 280 600 1010 264
9-Aug 361 66647387555 02737 292 Aug-09 290 640 1013 271
9-Sep 373 19908108013 31657 353 Sep-09 301 653 1045 281
9-Oct -186 -1135758063 -18836 -156 Oct-09 295 646 1025 276
9-Nov 6 429598654 65618 406 Nov-09 313 673 1092 288
9-Dec 193 -3538041182 -30108 161 Dec-09 319 649 1060 292
10-Jan -36 -22840646395 -587 -256 Jan-10 308 635 997 285
10-Feb 31 13842186803 10589 206 Feb-10 317 643 1008 291
10-Mar 603 38205356429 32922 477 Mar-10 336 668 1041 304
10-Apr 158 14253968325 03791 14 Apr-10 342 678 1045 309
10-May -799 -05569215148 17471 -621 May-10 314 674 1063 290
10-Jun -523 -23229482293 07896 -318 Jun-10 298 658 1072 280
10-Jul 701 -52850060701 -35575 569 Jul-10 319 623 1034 296
10-Aug -451 76993453056 43121 -284 Aug-10 305 671 1078 288
10-Sep 892 05035470246 12552 702 Sep-10 332 675 1092 308
10-Oct 38 35726262618 52271 293 Oct-10 344 699 1149 317
10-Nov 001 -46572458071 -67101 -044 Nov-10 344 666 1072 316
10-Dec 668 71205616987 60114 502 Dec-10 367 714 1136 332
11-Jan 237 14260916813 02413 151 Jan-11 376 724 1139 337
11-Feb 343 -08196213636 14822 271 Feb-11 389 718 1156 346
11-Mar 004 -25144800567 -53504 026 Mar-11 389 700 1094 347
11-Apr 296 51621261523 44419 292 Apr-11 401 736 1142 357
11-May -113 -18535770592 -51957 -088 May-11 396 722 1083 354
11-Jun -167 08676483656 -46402 -14 Jun-11 389 729 1033 349
11-Jul -203 93387304437 48149 -126 Jul-11 382 797 1083 344
11-Aug -543 3189583693 00543 -469 Aug-11 361 822 1083 328
11-Sep -703 -41599527992 34989 -619 Sep-11 335 788 1121 308
11-Oct 1093 -13852548076 -6243 834 Oct-11 372 777 1051 333
11-Nov -022 39284953285 -00578 -096 Nov-11 371 808 1050 330
11-Dec 102 01889893545 02082 061 Dec-11 375 809 1053 332
12-Jan 448 -01521632453 -04526 426 Jan-12 392 808 1048 346
12-Feb 432 -22430032837 14221 342 Feb-12 409 790 1063 358
12-Mar 329 -12258940456 -21399 158 Mar-12 422 780 1040 364
12-Apr -063 13756177692 -18216 -038 Apr-12 420 791 1021 363
12-May -601 43616823461 38067 -528 May-12 394 825 1060 343
12-Jun 412 -61107318666 -83896 324 Jun-12 411 775 971 355
12-Jul 139 -2662867044 20145 115 Jul-12 416 754 991 359
12-Aug 225 -29540623033 -22929 186 Aug-12 426 732 968 365
12-Sep 258 -47724948882 -20234 22 Sep-12 437 697 948 373
12-Oct -185 -18050840884 -36659 -098 Oct-12 429 684 914 370
12-Nov 058 -03984415062 -0944 079 Nov-12 431 682 905 373
12-Dec 091 -17220762656 24366 124 Dec-12 435 670 927 377
13-Jan 518 -04335912154 32593 387 Jan-13 458 667 957 392
13-Feb 136 -29598734504 01523 08 Feb-13 464 647 959 395
13-Mar 375 -04786782014 2166 255 Mar-13 481 644 979 405
13-Apr 193 11854540053 29259 181 Apr-13 490 652 1008 412
13-May 234 -43222576245 -06784 082 May-13 502 624 1001 416
13-Jun -134 06875789801 10553 -177 Jun-13 495 628 1012 408
13-Jul 509 06412005306 -19554 423 Jul-13 520 632 992 426
13-Aug -29 11512128942 -11474 -214 Aug-13 505 639 981 417
13-Sep 314 -19925877399 -05148 361 Sep-13 521 626 976 432
13-Oct 46 -07538953205 -06933 349 Oct-13 545 622 969 447
13-Nov 305 27584740935 46402 189 Nov-13 562 639 1014 455
13-Dec 253 19377872096 15067 18 Dec-13 576 651 1029 463
14-Jan -346 -08961192857 -51141 -251 Jan-14 556 645 976 452
14-Feb 457 -00139276726 -05865 399 Feb-14 581 645 971 470
14-Mar 084 -34260446582 -18865 037 Mar-14 586 623 952 471
14-Apr 074 22210329784 03199 043 Apr-14 591 637 955 473
14-May 235 -07288421342 07134 197 May-14 605 632 962 483
14-Jun 207 05841054246 00135 195 Jun-14 617 636 962 492
14-Jul -138 -00888949644 03097 -153 Jul-14 609 636 965 485
14-Aug 4 18791535569 48657 313 Aug-14 633 648 1012 500
14-Sep -14 69028951277 63915 -221 Sep-14 624 692 1077 489
14-Oct 244 21563513841 15927 194 Oct-14 639 707 1094 498
14-Nov 269 72204527611 104647 19 Nov-14 657 758 1209 508 LTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98)
14-Dec -025 76468641712 47745 -044 Dec-14 655 816 1266 506 Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02)
15-Jan -3 54094515689 113573 -159 Jan-15 635 860 1410 497 Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09)
15-Feb 575 -50846010492 -16603 45 Feb-15 672 817 1387 520
15-Mar -158 65245129876 57568 -083 Mar-15 661 870 1467 516
15-Apr 096 -88441663253 -51219 09 Apr-15 667 793 1392 520
15-May 129 40875447394 08884 073 May-15 676 825 1404 524
15-Jun -194 -66047202646 -62159 -171 Jun-15 663 771 1317 515
15-Jul 21 80060563143 34205 126 Jul-15 677 833 1362 522
15-Aug -603 -10026780942 -24342 -522 Aug-15 636 824 1329 494
15-Sep -247 36089130828 34355 -247 Sep-15 620 854 1374 482
15-Oct 844 -16993598229 -58073 637 Oct-15 673 839 1294 513
15-Nov 03 48441920313 30487 01 Nov-15 675 880 1334 513
15-Dec -158 11998205926 -10345 -173 Dec-15 664 891 1320 504
16-Jan -496 31480723033 48626 -453 Jan-16 631 919 1384 482
16-Feb -013 33572073647 44379 -002 Feb-16 630 950 1446 481
16-Mar 678 -61786855584 -39621 601 Mar-16 673 891 1388 510
16-Apr 039 -31282642584 09914 082 Apr-16 676 863 1402 515
16-May 18 -08911812015 -5253 107 May-16 688 855 1328 520
16-Jun 026 65324823204 94059 03 Jun-16 690 911 1453 522
16-Jul 369 21567955023 02767 348 Jul-16 715 931 1457 540
16-Aug 014 -15149 -44038 024 Aug-16 716 917 1393 541
16-Sep 002 10335 0967 025 Sep-16 716 926 1407 542
-41363
Correllation 100 -022 -015 097
skew -04 02 01 -08
Kurt 198 469 -028 186

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 4

CROSM Implementation Considerations

bull All underlying strategiescomponent portfolios will have high liquiditymarketability

bull All-in costs will be reasonable (likely in the 40bp ndash 100bp range)

bull Given highly-volatile components there should be continual oversight

bull The systematic trend following strategy component will bull employ long and short positionsbull will use derivatives leverage to establish volatility levels

bull Managers are not seeking ldquoalphardquo they are seeking risk capturebull Duration managers capturing interest rate riskbull STF managers capturing trendmomentum risks across dozens of markets

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 5

CROSM Implementation Considerations (Platform Manager)

bull Act as fiduciary to the plan

bull Key role gathering and accounting for all long-short positions across all component managers

bull Reconciling manager position data with primary broker position data

bull Provide account administrative functions very similar to RISIC custodian function

bull Netting all positions and providing risk analyticscharacteristics of aggregate portfolio

bull Monitoring and managing risk levels per client directionguidelinesbull Re-setting manager account levels (ie rebalancing among managers)bull Directing managers to adjust collateral levels

bull Provide best-practices user-interfaces to asset-owners such as RISIC

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 6

CROSM Class Management Diagram

bull Within this construct the asset-owner (ie RISIC)bull Searches for and selects platform managerbull Searches for and selects component managers (funds)bull Determines level of guideline authority to assign to platform manager

PlatformManager

RIA and Fiduciary

BrokersTrade Execution Admin - NAV Calculations

SubscriptionsRedemptions

Trade Reconciliation

(vetted by platform manager)

PlatformManager

Client CustodianCash Safekeeping

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 7

Systematic Trend Following Benchmark Review

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 8

bull Momentum and Trend Following are somewhat interchangeable terms

bull That which has done well recently will continue to do well

bull That which has done poorly recently will continue to do poorly

bull Buy what is going up sell what is going down

Ex if SampP 500 has a positive 1-year return buygo long Ex if oil has a negative 1-year return sellshort

bull This results in a volatile yet low correlation return vs risky assets (eg equities) over a full market cycle

Often a positive correlation during strong (extended) bull markets and a negative correlation during major bear markets

Description ndash What is Systematic Trend Following

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 9

bull Trend horizon or lookback period = the length of time that the signal is ldquolooking backrdquo to see if the total return index is higher (lower) today than 30 days 3 months 1 year ago etc

bull Moving average (MA) crossover is a methodology to identify a trend - if short term MA is above longer term MA = Uptrend (buy market)- if short term MA is below longer term MA = Downtrend (sell market)

bull The trend horizon of a moving average is half of its moving average ndash this makes sense

Trend Following Terminology

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Example The average lookback of an equally weighted moving average is total days in the moving average divided by two

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 10

bull Manage long and short positions according to systematic signals

bull Implemented in futures and forwards (currency) markets (see Appendix)

bull Investable universe includes liquid markets across the globe Equities = typically broad indices such as SampP 500 Nikkei 225 etc Fixed Income = typically sovereign bondsrates such as US 10-year Treasury Currencies = typically major currencies such as JPY GBP EUR AUD CAD CHF Commodities = energy metals and agriculture components

bull Strategy implementation volatility is customizable (range anywhere from roughly 5-30 (capable of offsetting equity asymp 18-20)

bull Systematic = rules-based implementation

bull Related terms = managed futures CTAs (commodity trading advisors)

How do systematic trend following managers invest

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 11

Basic Trend Following Example

bull Single Asset Example 21 day average price gt 252 day average price = long position 21 day average price lt 252 day average price = short position

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 12

bull The RISICrsquos Trend Following allocation and corresponding managers should be compiled based on assessing the following criteria

Trend Horizons Short asymp lt1 month Medium asymp 1-11 months Long asymp12+ months

Systematic implementation = quantitatively-oriented firmso Graduate (PhD Masters) backgrounds in mathematics physics computer scienceo Straight forward strategy design (ie humility)

Focus on global futures markets (ie utilize forwards on limited basis)

Strong focus on risk management and diversification

Target gt15 annual standard deviationo Required in order to meaningfully impact portfolio

RISIC Mandate ndash Trend Following Allocation

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 13

Why medium-term trends

o Trend Horizons Short asymp lt1 month | Medium asymp 1-11 months | Long asymp12+ months

o Medium to long-term trends provide most robust return patterns - whyo Short term trends are too short (risk getting whipsawed in choppy markets)o Long term trends are too long (longer time to turn lower hit ratios)

o The average of all trend horizons traded is the horizon of the strategy

Using a larger number of moving average signals reduces the dependency on individual data points and leads to an increased robustness of the strategy vs more concentrated strategies shorter drawdown periods

What length of trend is best How many

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 14

bull Benchmarking Trend Following strategies is imperfectbull Primarily due to different volatility targets markets traded and trend horizons (lookback)

bull Benchmark characteristicsbull Construction based on consistently applied tradingrisk-management rulesbull Inclusive of markets traded by managers (rates currency commodities equities)bull Broad scalable investible published available at low cost as a simple option bull Comparable to the strategies run by managers that will be sourced

bull Institutional investors track several major benchmarks bull MLM 3X IndexTM (Investable rules-based)bull Credit Suisse Managed Futures Liquid IndexTM 15 Target Volatility (Investable rules-based)bull Societe Generale Trend IndexTM (Uninvestable 10 largest trend managers)

Trend Following Benchmarks

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 15

Investable Trend Following Benchmark Comparisons

Source Mount Lucas Management Credit Suisse

Several distinctions between indices can produce different performance behaviors

Selected Investable STF Benchmark Characteristics

MLM Index 3X trade (with interest on cash)

Credit Suisse Managed Futures Liquid Indextrade

15 Target VolBasic trend signal Time-series momentum Moving Average Crossover

of look-back periods utilized 1 16Range of look-back periods only 12-months 1-month to 9-months

Average look-back period 12-months 5 monthsMarkets traded

Number of markets 22 31

Major market segmentsFixed Income (5)

Currencies (6) Commodities (11)

Fixed Income (4) Currencies (5)

Commodities (17) (in 4 aggregated contracts)

Equities (5)Contracts traded 22 18Trading Frequency Monthly Daily

Volatility Framework

Leveraged to set volatility at 3-times non-levered index volatility Volatility is not

bounded but results from construction

Leveraged to target volatility at an expected forward-looking standard deviation of 15

(within a range of variation)SampP 500

1995-2016 Volatility

Index Volatility 1995-2016 141 147 149Inclusion of return on cash Yes YesYear of Inception Index 1970 1995

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 16

The Credit Suisse MF Liquid Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLMtrade 3x Index

Several years where indices diverge particularly in more recent calendar years but both provided major offset in severe down markets-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Annu

al R

etur

ns -

Calendar Year Returns

MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol 7030 Portfolio

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 17

The Credit Suisse MF Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLM 3x Index

CSMF IndexTM

15 volhas produced a similar but more consistent return pattern versus MLM 3X IndexTM

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

Growth of $1 ndash Index Comparisons

MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol

SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio

Returns to systematic trend following are episodic with long periods of little going on

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 18

The Credit Suisse MF Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLM 3x Index

Comparative Performance Statistics

MLM 3x and Credit Suisse 15 Vol exhibit similar statistical characteristics

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Periods Ending 93020161 Year 85 124 07 24 162 01 125 105 12 154 125 12

3 Years 139 145 10 130 156 08 79 90 09 112 108 105 Years 33 129 03 46 138 03 120 92 13 164 111 15

10 Years 58 163 03 79 144 05 62 124 04 72 153 0420 Years 98 141 05 117 147 06 71 121 04 79 154 04

Statistical MeasuresLargest Drawdown - period

Largest Drawdown - -5095Largest Drawdown - of months 16

Recovery PeriodRecovery Duration 37

Crisis Period ReturnsLTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98) -100

Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02) -206Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09) -388

SampP 500

Nov-07 - Feb-09

Mar-09 - Mar-12

113 127 -145

Jun-09 - Jul-11 Dec-12 - Nov-14 Mar-09 - Apr-1126 24

326 277 -309

121 143 -88

26

-2509 -277 -42163 21 16

MLM 3x Credit Suisse 15 Vol 7030

Mar-09 - May-09 Mar-11 - Nov-12 Nov-07 - Feb-09

Data

Growth of $1 - Selected Indices

SampP 500 Index3466934700347313475934790348203485134881349123494334973350043503435065350963512535156351863521735247352783530935339353703540035431354623549035521355513558235612356433567435704357353576535796358273585535886359163594735977360083603936069361003613036161361923622036251362813631236342363733640436434364653649536526365573658636617366473667836708367393677036800368313686136892369233695136982370123704337073371043713537165371963722637257372883731637347373773740837438374693750037530375613759137622376533768137712377423777337803378343786537895379263795637987380183804738078381083813938169382003823138261382923832238353383843841238443384733850438534385653859638626386573868738718387493877738808388383886938899389303896138991390223905239083391143914239173392033923439264392953932639356393873941739448394793950839539395693960039630396613969239722397533978339814398453987339904399343996539995400264005740087401184014840179402104023840269402994033040360403914042240452404834051340544405754060340634406644069540725407564078740817408484087840909409404096941000410304106141091411224115341183412144124441275413064133441365413954142641456414874151841548415794160941640416714169941730417604179141821418524188341913419444197442005420364206442095421254215642186422174224842278423094233942370424014243042461424914252242552425834261411025910659101109735444795000011129616668719730211748013354685194120205672645138931241965009769575412450699222939992129761187301480581292940470271952513497005569168912137574977766538731422525270106010514357547551179966144953800076712951470846209378406315087940415803691151452745893837461447585345253298514781293960381431561348081035090416044412880716591725737049449876516915674558707691797290421862691918113092871532211736864475451223718405552846356619195264510146997352040123602015828222025174407362882207917646405505612193115334285272921198652821201449221801504468230752256164903450843522812083338791482244568345475183512570902447635128825968685623562435255220242308371642655821841460915226276701299414293224770902915189862391787177920535525862394754854749274296558769989482900960405551408930222205505034578292822949138280023045358671038112431632140516072873308856219998935533259977402088765131582661071435956314279060321859173056678140690402232501658669961042331614423409612513511465129484386633351895799842701327215449692256753592171206721594134840468533992741341262389290458933496915703059332534423638180916072365613461119509613463090703723995334485457227683547317680031981420853192366641381297733056956571503342300421621321822428140493269215101303270095962331173053020056052787829788316686907052949639118337536127649917095296064254158037939961412590124564646146627887871187545059281332844539954552772253850096712227187493507898459282097432637954442650023282200944263041310991265712443127696486875822525637361608997226743065681956152020960944423275221988055075325237232831515192618932191643052508121921342220045324092102208674464422621226000986067275229750234673192224185807204046941244953855362587424926504321696896254125711559699925143197901716707265663029029538712680008636849986528204410894209262872337205466271291226269262225212868287525963656228232554118060267286193401094776962917455530760156628208877526919953283217130370276322862758753782752629065589627156293024274600705612312709993712960313050798698663641131148654713355772305973235249293743001597437795571630970482363174709310138410384831563216755592511472831874831166196183321330172986423731596395909755043279073967514378332800576897046323336697921848180483376070062371705534182709381513519346407576872258013364310386583369433690204211245862338990834773555873470588166411665135601293411050863367618955762511183746037159219988637984816794490683385583875280874937802643132536975382260327356213913991944598580941941312634650714166406268449155123173936741272313143239957923913978401414523502683611964211144263762814340351184335375292400727611634612043766839549365352836444172640109791362874626977573238054662131138102385493727388428953529966061695843935003143467775993551068904805874132346686653876708269156779646908124983132286826009252479534890663612311955100993806420657318827379658224668999566581152461698228251029425993071592102619260450577352868252801406410007451229025371814087202301080181827526562954800904455345831320889587226666319253827562601433077606897703477631730127115322853364345378037681734175020350106773314444362241332432979989220961107431888864653504814304506768576317473316687723333249734427218568199134344306612900559553673062946423169376011453825339853889086466915490138906421015022561400580510770672323960539509989637438943985001728101381534221061930223608169128582674335451483884331213721163310728886371297675144528233750849114310024239188871546311134088183079711177142226843030336747419608139192456253943896900269896410638545256101574163464210351613742571421550845248436697642268570534286187358866019543110472455474422435027777548192424575622164251887746378506256857133481177002414892834904637185615003550194056957583948495214565943523245204209873500485850532877871689719521196102368607855451711230775638156179884233142952576012353042414745560823256271471758149528790830782586379848326737555907190592043554660460095709565786617116196907537966085999933902138963294399312582256240827772220609663931039698627927656507846665210166548665770485471663522057973709076671745763071973566611321800154363466747904894358454676089528674956696629733918186625367689583304685437636079014314129056203678626605700767272691026912224674745090999929526640841185621305963114554628144894630325057071283167306109594071613675686034214884936878483828307528568963678862611273715084386126416237160855042669932271622872136784661MLM Index 3X 34669347003473134759347903482034851348813491234943349733500435034350653509635125351563518635217352473527835309353393537035400354313546235490355213555135582356123564335674357043573535765357963582735855358863591635947359773600836039360693610036130361613619236220362513628136312363423637336404364343646536495365263655736586366173664736678367083673936770368003683136861368923692336951369823701237043370733710437135371653719637226372573728837316373473737737408374383746937500375303756137591376223765337681377123774237773378033783437865378953792637956379873801838047380783810838139381693820038231382613829238322383533838438412384433847338504385343856538596386263865738687387183874938777388083883838869388993893038961389913902239052390833911439142391733920339234392643929539326393563938739417394483947939508395393956939600396303966139692397223975339783398143984539873399043993439965399954002640057400874011840148401794021040238402694029940330403604039140422404524048340513405444057540603406344066440695407254075640787408174084840878409094094040969410004103041061410914112241153411834121441244412754130641334413654139541426414564148741518415484157941609416404167141699417304176041791418214185241883419134194441974420054203642064420954212542156421864221742248422784230942339423704240142430424614249142522425524258342614110148884646900895103340591859474421072408712997243110940677971075865114262418660692781160092612677171142959157168208311013103426890634110783733289700331137038224450235111679226409959909121850894347440231242433353496411812252167585248812126896699822459641328653866929275813351606121318145134081055440927281296797928471894713619392434367088143576578138179231509218792763344715752141625393705159741476392170381624588692915244715961946131990337158166634405606991596268567466747615854045132050956160762782421028591674471548787969116334608788312481167136836594916961724103293485745617540016237536971184317397396999281833207803473638519081906293617161199528158418133362015627484786143521495947913924032218083936204276442354434329164940125568449301383946244569562533616392392098972026799324768457163719559259133315331014382621527584284674826443486642972855246776974677741692522251779160873425363596849993599255718459950524222543332082009850425755097037285197263905469237608912593318215612296269111264944554352772336103456553228413595450075206282512675271448142755300091516830227662953436071924283321999650090952858120804002444629274590427040774314817804441657153177213234675698932724829006272378344643433993104513357024175828066833541251801571748340849392335919133573122662643302134183224213506169350375186287367593498251493609266634218858110597834333267389762584413368122399944071733998101148189912334494512142795573371605936289772133754249508694474336728934548908533149571666931522831544831262756059321576109118041663364182590872654433313630471808207345352304220459553602010422381642353506087423034153511404375039457388026730482139434188411671450271744330063747749886421923848037816734253178733277496646190270333054864454404709212399464278353529314546427285481394055114540367249408701545841124640575002469076108389668847569518484822714849610768837257251060571175497652219113860765338492514839465369294843558030123659847601745376581057473128124445944394704277905596145950343427344960032520567863524614445442972190172910554497265868140495541039832423297543007691886491815371693301544380252432959673518953528883825581519765406434421783125752892673579868639554995535038222757554936841166908551543447906696125637801167088788657228607789353605575252875755654567950807540961575797433537416528573133681365925715511663633801610754124923718312337523635162123404735230715880167218252724277206795183511682380451475985133054437969212552622290028893799520491768101300335192278665029281450635738492353615078156340236386551021488843485043513646773187677665083519832107603248375870074608462508314598385507925268571318619042852184159214284254521628972131248554191254093339198585232375325283725845509247309335557767157307764609593111186249949546161219094094592654773180599687912503152135379287295149766029792115163411843563236063692083157713540857190831538127088974503174200586004758054979499215967270571947536747268892087788668714567833349511720355827928642302366600225106747576396402285420570113652974281025352986455580729791857567329116090210022649469842354643846346355313413052864342027491780147668002375855000886775240605615865267375078330068803658099901409815496233192816727965167131078552540018674691151011573536987953442583287466625072738788234713691521499241957238694169177803971793642853250548699884060217257537360129583255957972237039097739091728638025868266767966835670147050482209445615305849787895714812564137769813515439796780750502764271417809031126182080138078000781649011678968109588554389780000442351743847907302670362232982521940949887469774792464073246567541607708880763873188239184893966696953342110148546843727482284168568164592314229058669907460484101416670028005841815364726036177634292644162067518287266517983125485561662362591028781749627913830961134966319400177769446392149927453023662647807316842243621755084290590616389060372158093465128667668604236454503711708577364536047495606406623250136877504976370927279553024363244932772003528636143498551355266355779990150757647521485590334586922192146698701170714589328632549758205028463395178161839371290312886033501192088568816590408878332148698689561611674479293629886653179825347924837850757708360031927344283254956769909807824201775560706285394650126758993839434877515595628800987149600684889065832057726926918696888484690189495394480839779789087039133391421863001611292771298553107031643975291118372363297819930836093202313829167348572263920392620931197582674Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol3466934700347313475934790348203485134881349123494334973350043503435065350963512535156351863521735247352783530935339353703540035431354623549035521355513558235612356433567435704357353576535796358273585535886359163594735977360083603936069361003613036161361923622036251362813631236342363733640436434364653649536526365573658636617366473667836708367393677036800368313686136892369233695136982370123704337073371043713537165371963722637257372883731637347373773740837438374693750037530375613759137622376533768137712377423777337803378343786537895379263795637987380183804738078381083813938169382003823138261382923832238353383843841238443384733850438534385653859638626386573868738718387493877738808388383886938899389303896138991390223905239083391143914239173392033923439264392953932639356393873941739448394793950839539395693960039630396613969239722397533978339814398453987339904399343996539995400264005740087401184014840179402104023840269402994033040360403914042240452404834051340544405754060340634406644069540725407564078740817408484087840909409404096941000410304106141091411224115341183412144124441275413064133441365413954142641456414874151841548415794160941640416714169941730417604179141821418524188341913419444197442005420364206442095421254215642186422174224842278423094233942370424014243042461424914252242552425834261411018462101362837934799991085448004538323111929118787182351207652511407176612019125390204581117484546864171731138109225682759411830542971141973121282349239248191253561020678453113125047134317747138373303172500361331459748985528213803323105317908144737919185125151412776697511663614531058211188315137577152931888721415729437616425115318985323494783165982278309038621803231471549395617904050860922647176145960706541091733942085083835175478753683071291781330453112814217978309170999982178327747582607391891163979836075817798727619506824189722689263713871946922853862876201326619703110722104247709741140121084225371972662212855164715988862206722706401835322669441690595415238021656835493992409319476336215824715883382021251271921183062991962754716579502454626218979196217438257775040245115282671023723013445526347004714041855255795955077359592495813923487551426251544884444464257360170460037412686083540701638126872519870418432268999567132061262705837055829019925763194593147083265313757663309472813103200541033527419823254249551277010409615451362676529979786414226160056073535038263894797652999412548730262056363225800821930099183269664772640791342707517913393063628270088014648396313954310549318153084717264241954307157328397901933299419518611299136098849970540673374596302831080134120070774442652341385979728731753396520803376895345726418142448733666639557515736237492416134674511343543009042022533332642022114852532434638542450811315841698852292073039414153229354430189376200790483316853805490444573357411439819244935075011608249249360984302969547423856135399925536837040956933772726354401578979658723774972210786050840695295174214756416994515826385033964521149932298139713282327467319427164404503527264170307833354900940084206535718971410646261433761244217189272270611745540752200966779456751429607118284972013362131246351043335537376455539648008468581965376016632204691248114327415071871465643724717227545473136402847931445785433903947054319063502047815646472216278699063479607213661057945178227960527846352191618525558194503566656014366215072099607706301949091279752110903474678311307085914813726995314497449313263458100307501108068680081651265560301474542535683580046564785086503081795148954583264570743744560523185534007515884008061665413858330466678433295622111342960827866909373871666130868051874230552771652422845510701696432876208278608866200600401871004659472507041330465932874203479539697809804734914257004524104654454705380793625480346959025919015347688813432197833827357071618484301576055052128972793782966226803700147344207548094170970392760506973007753442576737939978018203711477063777852829118623665779019542537975168470879331063159292969340707904458913438647549674528465612369693250484829245469892748812978175263532882565884241246206833661953571965958747281414049210197798367540078193102939236528189951046893064884057110450275014424337105381618272956461035480834966252810098081586249346103444040903827289943765319962205110100628217884611012827363731696104489043958535041025208883265320710924810397674245105958862062210699973907685915891710079521394402054104113593977485571045082886122542310633415292259892107173767394075751033610606190315107818092913984761091714256162410911487792520462763107169501545471921136118889613764111388603444944021115574053252049810939037910685213114249390356399391083133347816519510328737942111374108260563452860941083193489388158411210933463883606105110348877333521050495950956824310526830835267162104791863989067431062821090868559510400777823450634102113172546186561060003146855022697107312284647369906353909062158296792111202812716948336196247350049135711396291183690494702807101941926996967356997999572105795140647295866841122666457979433169013834081008090404106009810012515188045546101181772608249919920326422666829806500597293140997560167322182769688378268213806910137938396615464102906867144372699764410705174233597071424363883869524017194325919595544845253305679622646217934274796239452751736962965375063369090821012347317827440610770514966463814109420569583346841208711039285353212664209478560323141025217416688541386837757319192514666752333325439139155359455648431403916156690523913166501323067976136168615008235161328539985817047137418197702979161294379107077740413338408429152194132004225939526151384230634300615614456614056202426138838285506816291402147282693308713284924859334293145344916066784191457470854495409713932867530051409140675983590670087030 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

Performance Stats

Performance stats (2)

Correlations

Annual Returns

Calendar Year Returns

MLM Index 3X1995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420150218999999999999970311015404060000000000000370000000000000007E-202110000000000000240000000000000001E-30151022600000000000001014599999999999999005-008-90000000000000011E-30379-96999999999999989E-299000000000000005E-2013400000000000001-017199999999999999-27999999999999997E-2025390999999999999998E-2Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015031303639999999999999901749999999999999902690000000000000252999999999999999E-297000000000000003E-2008013300000000000001031700573999999999999996E-2025011203439999999999999712E-271999999999999995E-2-72999999999999995E-2-01189999999999999901102310000000000000142000000000000003E-27030 Portfolio1995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420150265000000000000010145999999999999990218999999999999970196999999999999980182-55999999999999994E-2-88000000000000009E-2-0138000000000000010247011469000000000000006E-2015174999999999999997E-2-03070238999999999999990135000000000000012E-301350000000000000102280000000000000190999999999999998E-2-2E-3

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 19

The Credit Suisse MF Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLM 3x Index Correlations

bull Both MLM and Credit Suisse exhibit similar negative correlations with US equities

bull MLM and Credit Suisse indices are highly correlated with one another

Correlations ndash various periods ending 93016

SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM 7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099MLM Index 3X -054 -056 MLM Index 3X -023 -026

Credit Suisse Index -059 -055 080 Credit Suisse Index -021 -020 082

SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM 7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099MLM Index 3X -031 -033 MLM Index 3X -036 -036

Credit Suisse Index -027 -027 076 Credit Suisse Index -021 -021 066

1 Year Correlation 3 Year Correlation

10 Year Correlation5 Year Correlation

SampP 500 7030 MLM 7030 Portfolio 098MLM Index 3X -027 -026

Credit Suisse Index -018 -016 066

20 Year Correlation

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 20

Systematic Trend Following modeled with the MLM 3X IndexTM in the AL study Long history calculated back to pre-1970 PCA used data going back to 1970 Simple captures the beta captures big down markets reasonable for modeling However has only one lookback period (12 months) slow to respond to trends Investible but not inclusive of the full opportunity set (no equities)

Benchmark recommendation Credit Suisse Managed Futures Liquid IndexTM15 vol Diversified across 18 deep and liquid futures contracts in major markets Diversified across 16 lookback horizons from trading 30 days to 12 months Utilizes a moving average crossover method to determine the signal Equally risk weighted over 288 potentially different signals (long or short) Most comparable to the strategies that will be sourced

Recommended RISIC Mandate Benchmark

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 21

Due Diligence Plan Update Relating To STF and Platform Manager

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 22

Due Diligence Process Outline Platform Manager

bull Provide a short list of platform implementation platform managers

Draft DDQ prepared to be issued

bull Send DDQ to short list platform managers

bull Conduct a review of platform managers DDQ responses - rate proposals

PCA and Rhode Island investment staff

bull Conduct onsite due diligence at platform managers offices in NYC

PCA and Rhode Island investment staff

bull Platform manager recommendation

PCA memo to SIC SIC interview recommended platform manager

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 23

Due Diligence Process Outline STF Managers

bull Provide a short list of systematic trend following managers

bull Draft DDQ prepared to be issued

bull Send a DDQ to short list systematic trend following managers

bull Conduct a review of STF managers DDQ responses - rate proposals

bull PCA and Rhode Island investment staff

bull Systematic trend following managers recommendation

bull PCA memo to SIC

bull SIC interview recommended systematic trend following managers

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 24

Other Implementation Crisis Risk OffsetSM Class Managers

Other bull Platform manager to conduct operational due diligence at recommended STF

Managerrsquos office

bull STF Managers hired contracting other administration 1Q 2017

bull Fund long-duration Fixed Income and systematic trend following accounts pari passu

bull Primary source of funds ndash Equity HF portfolio redemptions

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 25

Appendix

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 26

Model Output Focus Portfolio Comparison of Trend IndicesFocus Portfolio

Line Strategic Class Trend

MLM 3x Index

TrendCS MF Index

1 US Equity 200 2002 Non-US Equity 200 2003 Private Growth 150 1504 Income Class 60 605 Crisis Risk Offset 80 806 Inflation Protection 100 1007 IG Fixed Income 115 1158 Absolute Return 65 659 Cash 30 30

10 Total 1000 1000

Asset Only Statistics11 Median Scenario Comp Return (22-year period) 73 7312 Average Scenario Standard Deviation (22-year period) 118 12113 Sharpe Ratio (22-year period) 041 04014 Sortino Ratio (22-year period) 074 074

15 Best Year Worst Year 298 -208

306 -210

16 Average 2-year Loss of Worst 10 -160 -164AssetLiability Statistics

17 Percent of Scenarios lt50 [during first 5-years] 75 7918 Median Funded Ratio [end of 5-years] 600 59919 Average Funded Ratio of Worst 10 [end of 5-years] 477 47620 Median Funded Ratio [end of 22-years] 994 99121 Average Funded Ratio of Worst 10 [end of 22-years] 671 66522 Median Avg Ann Employer Cntrbs Rate [during 22-yrs] 206 20623 Average of Yrs w Employer Cntrbs Rate gt30 [during 22-yrs] 44 47

bull For modeling purposes both indices have same volatility assumptions

bull Modeling the Focus Portfolio with the CS MF Index results in the same long-term return (line 11) and slightly higher risk (line 12)

bull Portfolio results are similar regardless of the trend following index used in modeling the total portfolio

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 27

Comparing Modeling of MLM 3x and CS MF IndexMLM 3x Index Credits Suisse MF Index

1970 1607 9491971 648 -5801972 278 12791973 9190 63231974 1458 51501975 -620 -20551976 851 14651977 374 15591978 -178 4531979 2107 31971980 -568 4861981 2839 18891982 1278 13801983 -1005 -11941984 1281 0881985 239 5561986 456 2281987 643 10851988 188 -10381989 809 0551990 657 3771991 -604 -7281992 -557 -12351993 481 14301994 549 -7851995 384 14781996 409 21071997 077 0061998 992 10741999 -564 -12982000 3782 0122001 043 0492002 -972 11652003 1191 39572004 992 0172005 456 1152006 -1329 24292007 -461 4192008 4324 42422009 -811 -3752010 1370 5092011 1740 -16162012 -1910 -22872013 -127 10762014 2995 28432015 1359 086

-4000

-2000

000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Annual Modeled Returns

$0

$500

$1000

$1500

$2000

$2500

Growth of $100

MLM 3x Credit Suisse Managed Futures

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 28

The Credit Suisse Managed Futures Indextrade is a systematic trend following strategy that trades a total of 18 futures contracts providing liquid and diversified exposure to market trends across asset classes geographies and time horizons The strategy tracks 16 time horizon signals to identify trends across various horizons ranging from shorter-term moving average (60 trading days) to longer-term moving average (360 trading days) The average length of moving average signal utilized is a 210 trading days moving average

bull Shortest signal compares the 60 (trading) day MA (moving average) versus 5 day MA

bull Longest signal compares the 360 (trading) day MA (moving average) versus 5 day MA

bull For each of the 18 different futures contracts (markets) total return index

- If average price in most recent 5 days is gt average price over 60 days =gt Buy the market (go long)

- If average price in most recent 5 days is lt average price over 60 days=gt Sell the market (go short)

bull Signals are equally weighted resulting in a portfolio of long and short exposures When signals align (strong trends) the index is more long or more short

Recommended Benchmark Index

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 29

The Credit Suisse Managed Futures Indextrade Markets Traded

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 30

bull Diversifies and balances risk across the four major futures market typesbull Rebalancing incorporates recent trailing volatility of each instrument traded

The Credit Suisse Managed Futures Indextrade Risk Allocation

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 31

Instruments Forwards

bull Agreement to buysell an asset at a future time for a specified price Long position = agree to buy at the future date Short position = agree to sell at the future date

bull Over-the-counter instrument (ie customized have counterparty risk)

bull Different than an option in that both buyer and seller have obligations

bull Essentially a contract that states Asset type and amount Future date of trade Future price of trade Settlement options (ie cash payment or delivery of asset)

bull Currency forwards can be more liquid than currency futures

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 32

Instruments Futures

bull Futures = analogous to forwards but exchange tradedstandardized Exchanges (eg CME Group) provide numerous services

o Guarantee contracts will be honored backed by exchange with is backed by all of the exchange members (de minimis counterparty risk)

o Facilitate transactionso Set margin requirementso Organize daily settlementmarking to marketo Arrange settlementdelivery procedures

bull Extremely liquid instruments

bull Vast majority of futures contracts do not lead to delivery

bull Regulated by the US Government Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 33

Futures Transaction Example

bull November crude oil contract (one contract = 1000 barrels of oil)

bull ldquoPricerdquo of contract = delivery price (ie futures are free) 1000 barrels $43 = $43000 of exposure (ie notional value)

o Longbuy position = agree to buy 1000 barrels in November $43barrelo Shortsell position = agree to sell 1000 barrels in November $43barrel

Initial margin = $3190 (ie money that must be deposited to trade)o Typically equal to roughly one-day maximum price fluctuationo Margin = embedded leverageo Exchanges require daily settlementmark to market

bull At contract expiration (or anytime while contract is traded) | longbuy ldquoSpotrdquo price = $50

o Gain = ($50-$43) x 1000 = $7000

ldquoSpotrdquo price = $40o Loss = ($40-$43) x 1000 = ($3000)

Gainslosses for shortsell positionare the opposite

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 34

Leverage in Trend Following Strategies

bull Futures contain embedded leverage

bull Trend Following strategies leverage asymp 0x-7x Averagefull-cycle leverage asymp 3x

bull Without leverage (ie 1x) strategy volatility may be asymp 6 (ie bond-like)

bull Leveragerisk oversight is key component of strategy selection

bull Leverage protections Futures have daily price limits and daily settlement

o Price limit = maximum change in contract priceo Exchanges will close out positions if failed settlement

Long and short positions partially offset leverage risks

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 35

CROSM Implementation Considerations (LongShort aspects)bull Long position ndash give up cash to buy a security (traditional)

bull Short position ndash sell an un-owned security receive cash liable for securityrsquos position

bull Because of the liability short positions require collateral as security collateral levels based on potential security movements not total value of positions

bull Minimum collateral requirements allow managers to apply leverage

bull Unlike typical leveraged situations collateral requirements re-set every day

bull Longshort portfolios contain many offsetting long and short positions itrsquos the net position that matters

bull Longshort portfolios utilize ldquoprimary brokersrdquo to effect these types of trades

bull In total across entire CROSM class hundreds of netted ls positions

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 36

DISCLOSURES This document is provided for informational purposes only It does not constitute an offer of securities of any of the issuers that may be described herein Informationcontained herein may have been provided by third parties including investment firms providing information on returns and assets under management and may not have beenindependently verified The past performance information contained in this report is not necessarily indicative of future results and there is no assurance that the investment in question willachieve comparable results or that the Firm will be able to implement its investment strategy or achieve its investment objectives The actual realized value of currently unrealizedinvestments (if any) will depend on a variety of factors including future operating results the value of the assets and market conditions at the time of disposition any related transactioncosts and the timing and manner of sale all of which may differ from the assumptions and circumstances on which any current unrealized valuations are based

Neither PCA nor PCArsquos officers employees or agents make any representation or warranty express or implied in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained inthis document or any oral information provided in connection herewith or any data subsequently generated herefrom and accept no responsibility obligation or liability (whether direct orindirect in contract tort or otherwise) in relation to any of such information PCA and PCArsquos officers employees and agents expressly disclaim any and all liability that may be based on thisdocument and any errors therein or omissions therefrom Neither PCA nor any of PCArsquos officers employees or agents make any representation of warranty express or implied that anytransaction has been or may be effected on the terms or in the manner stated in this document or as to the achievement or reasonableness of future projections management targetsestimates prospects or returns if any Any views or terms contained herein are preliminary only and are based on financial economic market and other conditions prevailing as of thedate of this document and are therefore subject to change

The information contained in this report may include forward-looking statements Forward-looking statements include a number of risks uncertainties and other factors beyond the control ofthe Firm which may result in material differences in actual results performance or other expectations The opinions estimates and analyses reflect PCArsquos current judgment which maychange in the future

Any tables graphs or charts relating to past performance included in this report are intended only to illustrate investment performance for the historical periods shown Such tables graphsand charts are not intended to predict future performance and should not be used as the basis for an investment decision

All trademarks or product names mentioned herein are the property of their respective owners Indices are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index The index dataprovided is on an ldquoas isrdquo basis In no event shall the index providers or its affiliates have any liability of any kind in connection with the index data or the portfolio described herein Copyingor redistributing the index data is strictly prohibited

The Russell indices are either registered trademarks or trade names of Frank Russell Company in the US andor other countries

The MSCI indices are trademarks and service marks of MSCI or its subsidiaries

Standard and Poorrsquos (SampP) is a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc SampP indices including the SampP 500 are a registered trademark of The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc

CBOE not SampP calculates and disseminates the BXM Index The CBOE has a business relationship with Standard amp Poors on the BXM CBOE and Chicago Board Options Exchange areregistered trademarks of the CBOE and SPX and CBOE SampP 500 BuyWrite Index BXM are servicemarks of the CBOE The methodology of the CBOE SampP 500 BuyWrite Index is owned by CBOEand may be covered by one or more patents or pending patent applications

The Barclays Capital indices (formerly known as the Lehman indices) are trademarks of Barclays Capital Inc

The Citigroup indices are trademarks of Citicorp or its affiliates

The Merrill Lynch indices are trademarks of Merrill Lynch amp Co or its affiliates

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MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15x 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol 7030 Portfolio
1995 0219 0228 0265 1995 0219 0313 0265
1996 0311 0264 0146 1996 0311 0364 0146
1997 0154 014 0219 1997 0154 0175 0219
1998 0406 0209 0197 1998 0406 0269 0197
1999 007 0066 0182 1999 007 0053 0182
2000 0211 0087 -0056 2000 0211 0097 -0056
2001 0004 007 -0088 2001 0004 008 -0088
2002 0151 0112 -0138 2002 0151 0133 -0138
2003 0226 0213 0247 2003 0226 0317 0247
2004 0146 0042 0114 2004 0146 005 0114
2005 005 0063 0069 2005 005 0074 0069
2006 -008 0188 0151 2006 -008 025 0151
2007 -0009 0095 0075 2007 -0009 0112 0075
2008 0379 023 -0307 2008 0379 0344 -0307
2009 -0097 0009 0239 2009 -0097 0012 0239
2010 0099 005 0135 2010 0099 0072 0135
2011 0134 -0048 0002 2011 0134 -0073 0002
2012 -0172 -008 0135 2012 -0172 -0119 0135
2013 -0028 0075 0228 2013 -0028 011 0228
2014 0253 0158 0091 2014 0253 0231 0091
2015 0091 0036 -0002 2015 0091 0042 -0002
Return 110 101 80 Return 110 131 80
StDev 153 93 146 StDev 153 134 146
Corr to 7030 -023 005 100 Corr to 7030 -023 004 100
1 Year Correlation 3 Year Correlation
SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM
7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099
MLM Index 3X -054 -056 MLM Index 3X -023 -026
Credit Suisse Index -059 -055 080 Credit Suisse Index -021 -020 082
5 Year Correlation 10 Year Correlation
SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM
7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099
MLM Index 3X -031 -033 MLM Index 3X -036 -036
Credit Suisse Index -027 -027 076 Credit Suisse Index -021 -021 066
20 Year Correlation
SampP 500 7030 MLM
7030 Portfolio 098
MLM Index 3X -027 -026
Credit Suisse Index -018 -016 066
Correlation to date Correlation to date
SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
SampP 500 Index 1 099 -054 -059 SampP 500 Index 1 099 -023 -021
7030 Portfolio 099 1 -056 -055 7030 Portfolio 099 1 -026 -02
MLM Index 3X -054 -056 1 08 MLM Index 3X -023 -026 1 082
Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -059 -055 08 1 Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -021 -02 082 1
Correlation to date Correlation to date
SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
5 5 5 5 10 Years 10 Years 10 Years 10 Years
SampP 500 Index 1 099 -031 -027 SampP 500 Index 1 099 -036 -021
7030 Portfolio 099 1 -033 -027 7030 Portfolio 099 1 -036 -021
MLM Index 3X -031 -033 1 076 MLM Index 3X -036 -036 1 066
Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -027 -027 076 1 Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -021 -021 066 1
Correlation to date
SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
5 5 5 5
SampP 500 Index 1 098 -027 -018
7030 Portfolio 098 1 -026 -016
MLM Index 3X -027 -026 1 066
Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -018 -016 066 1
MLM 3x Credit Suisse 15 Vol 7030 SampP 500
Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio
Periods Ending 9302016
1 Year 85 124 07 24 162 01 125 105 12 154 125 12
3 Years 139 145 10 130 156 08 79 90 09 112 108 10
5 Years 33 129 03 46 138 03 120 92 13 164 111 15 SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
10 Years 58 163 03 79 144 05 62 124 04 72 153 04 Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date
20 Years 98 141 05 117 147 06 71 121 04 79 154 04 Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g) Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g) Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g) Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g)
1 Year 1543 1246 122 1252 1052 116 846 1244 066 24 162 01
Statistical Measures 3 Years 1116 1083 102 792 897 087 1392 1446 095 130 156 08
Largest Drawdown - period Mar-09 - May-09 Mar-11 - Nov-12 Nov-07 - Feb-09 Nov-07 - Feb-09 5 Years 1637 1112 146 12 915 13 329 1288 025 46 138 03
Largest Drawdown - -2509 -277 -4216 -5095 10 Years 724 1525 041 621 1239 043 58 1627 03 79 144 05
Largest Drawdown - of months 3 21 16 16 20 Years 791 1535 036 711 1212 039 977 1408 053 117 147 06
Recovery Period Jun-09 - Jul-11 Dec-12 - Nov-14 Mar-09 - Apr-11 Mar-09 - Mar-12
Recovery Duration 26 24 26 37 00237 01617
01298 0156
Crisis Period Returns 00464 01383
LTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98) 121 143 -88 -100 00787 01439
Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02) 113 127 -145 -206 01172 01466
Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09) 326 277 -309 -388
MLM Credit Suisse 7030
Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio
Periods Ending 9302016
1 Year 85 124 07 14 90 01 125 105 12
3 Years 139 145 10 90 103 09 79 90 09
5 Years 33 129 03 35 92 04 120 92 13
10 Years 58 163 03 58 97 05 62 124 04
20 Years 98 141 05 91 100 07 71 121 04
Statistical Measures
Largest Drawdown - period Mar-09 - May-09 Mar-11 - Nov-12 Nov-07 - Feb-09
Largest Drawdown - -2509 -1486 -4216
Largest Drawdown - of months 3 21 16
Recovery Period Jun-09 - Jul-11 Dec-12 - Nov-14 Mar-09 - Apr-11
Recovery Duration 26 24 26
Full - history semi-deviation 83 54 83
Full - history skewness 03 02 -08
Full- history kurtosis 47 -01 15
Crisis Period Returns
LTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98) 121 104 -88
Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02) 113 157 -145
Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09) 326 183 -309
SampP 500 Index MLM Index 3X woInt Credit Suisse Index 7030 Portfolio
Return Return Return Return
Total Total Total Total
Jan-73 -149 NA NA NA
Feb-73 -352 NA NA NA
Mar-73 009 NA NA NA
Apr-73 -384 NA NA NA
May-73 -164 NA NA NA
Jun-73 -04 NA NA NA
Jul-73 406 NA NA NA
Aug-73 -342 NA NA NA
Sep-73 427 NA NA NA
Oct-73 013 NA NA NA
Nov-73 -1112 NA NA NA
Dec-73 196 NA NA NA
Jan-74 -071 NA NA NA
Feb-74 -005 NA NA NA
Mar-74 -202 NA NA NA
Apr-74 -359 NA NA NA
May-74 -302 NA NA NA
Jun-74 -112 NA NA NA
Jul-74 -742 NA NA NA
Aug-74 -864 NA NA NA
Sep-74 -115 NA NA NA
Oct-74 168 NA NA NA
Nov-74 -49 NA NA NA
Dec-74 -158 NA NA NA
Jan-75 1273 NA NA NA
Feb-75 639 NA NA NA
Mar-75 255 NA NA NA
Apr-75 509 NA NA NA
May-75 476 NA NA NA
Jun-75 477 NA NA NA
Jul-75 -644 NA NA NA
Aug-75 -176 NA NA NA
Sep-75 -311 NA NA NA
Oct-75 654 NA NA NA
Nov-75 281 NA NA NA
Dec-75 -082 NA NA NA
Jan-76 1217 NA NA NA
Feb-76 -084 NA NA NA
Mar-76 338 NA NA NA
Apr-76 -08 NA NA NA
May-76 -112 NA NA NA
Jun-76 441 NA NA NA
Jul-76 -05 NA NA NA
Aug-76 -02 NA NA NA
Sep-76 258 NA NA NA
Oct-76 -191 NA NA NA
Nov-76 -045 NA NA NA
Dec-76 558 NA NA NA
Jan-77 -473 NA NA NA
Feb-77 -182 NA NA NA
Mar-77 -104 NA NA NA
Apr-77 038 NA NA NA
May-77 -198 NA NA NA
Jun-77 493 NA NA NA
Jul-77 -124 NA NA NA
Aug-77 -172 NA NA NA
Sep-77 015 NA NA NA
Oct-77 -394 NA NA NA
Nov-77 312 NA NA NA
Dec-77 071 NA NA NA
Jan-78 -573 NA NA NA
Feb-78 -202 NA NA NA
Mar-78 297 NA NA NA
Apr-78 901 NA NA NA
May-78 086 NA NA NA
Jun-78 -132 NA NA NA
Jul-78 584 NA NA NA
Aug-78 302 NA NA NA
Sep-78 -031 NA NA NA
Oct-78 -874 NA NA NA
Nov-78 213 NA NA NA
Dec-78 194 NA NA NA
Jan-79 443 NA NA NA
Feb-79 -321 NA NA NA
Mar-79 598 NA NA NA
Apr-79 061 NA NA NA
May-79 -218 NA NA NA
Jun-79 434 NA NA NA
Jul-79 133 NA NA NA
Aug-79 576 NA NA NA
Sep-79 044 NA NA NA
Oct-79 -639 NA NA NA
Nov-79 472 NA NA NA
Dec-79 22 NA NA NA
Jan-80 621 NA NA NA
Feb-80 -001 NA NA NA
Mar-80 -975 NA NA NA
Apr-80 462 NA NA NA
May-80 515 NA NA NA
Jun-80 316 NA NA NA
Jul-80 696 NA NA NA
Aug-80 101 NA NA NA
Sep-80 294 NA NA NA
Oct-80 202 NA NA NA
Nov-80 1065 NA NA NA
Dec-80 -301 NA NA NA
Jan-81 -42 NA NA NA
Feb-81 172 NA NA NA
Mar-81 399 NA NA NA
Apr-81 -194 NA NA NA
May-81 025 NA NA NA
Jun-81 -062 NA NA NA
Jul-81 021 NA NA NA
Aug-81 -578 NA NA NA
Sep-81 -492 NA NA NA
Oct-81 54 NA NA NA
Nov-81 412 NA NA NA
Dec-81 -256 NA NA NA
Jan-82 -13 NA NA NA
Feb-82 -559 NA NA NA
Mar-82 -052 NA NA NA
Apr-82 452 NA NA NA
May-82 -341 NA NA NA
Jun-82 -15 NA NA NA
Jul-82 -177 NA NA NA
Aug-82 1214 NA NA NA
Sep-82 124 NA NA NA
Oct-82 1151 NA NA NA
Nov-82 404 NA NA NA
Dec-82 193 NA NA NA
Jan-83 372 NA NA NA
Feb-83 229 NA NA NA
Mar-83 369 NA NA NA
Apr-83 788 NA NA NA
May-83 -087 NA NA NA
Jun-83 389 NA NA NA
Jul-83 -295 NA NA NA
Aug-83 15 NA NA NA
Sep-83 138 NA NA NA
Oct-83 -116 NA NA NA
Nov-83 211 NA NA NA
Dec-83 -052 NA NA NA
Jan-84 -056 NA NA NA
Feb-84 -352 NA NA NA
Mar-84 173 NA NA NA
Apr-84 092 NA NA NA
May-84 -556 NA NA NA
Jun-84 214 NA NA NA
Jul-84 -124 NA NA NA
Aug-84 1104 NA NA NA
Sep-84 002 NA NA NA
Oct-84 038 NA NA NA
Nov-84 -112 NA NA NA
Dec-84 264 NA NA NA
Jan-85 779 NA NA NA
Feb-85 123 NA NA NA
Mar-85 006 NA NA NA
Apr-85 -009 NA NA NA
May-85 578 NA NA NA
Jun-85 157 NA NA NA
Jul-85 -014 NA NA NA
Aug-85 -086 NA NA NA
Sep-85 -313 NA NA NA
Oct-85 462 NA NA NA
Nov-85 686 NA NA NA
Dec-85 484 NA NA NA
Jan-86 056 NA NA NA
Feb-86 747 NA NA NA
Mar-86 558 NA NA NA
Apr-86 -113 NA NA NA
May-86 532 NA NA NA
Jun-86 169 NA NA NA
Jul-86 -559 NA NA NA
Aug-86 741 NA NA NA
Sep-86 -827 NA NA NA
Oct-86 577 NA NA NA
Nov-86 243 NA NA NA
Dec-86 -255 NA NA NA
Jan-87 1347 NA NA NA
Feb-87 395 NA NA NA
Mar-87 289 NA NA NA
Apr-87 -089 NA NA NA
May-87 087 NA NA NA
Jun-87 505 NA NA NA
Jul-87 507 NA NA NA
Aug-87 373 NA NA NA
Sep-87 -219 NA NA NA
Oct-87 -2153 NA NA NA
Nov-87 -824 NA NA NA
Dec-87 761 NA NA NA
Jan-88 421 NA NA 349
Feb-88 466 NA NA 436
Mar-88 -309 NA NA 036
Apr-88 11 NA NA 066
May-88 086 NA NA -09
Jun-88 458 NA NA 252
Jul-88 -038 NA NA 02
Aug-88 -34 NA NA -286
Sep-88 425 NA NA 359
Oct-88 282 NA NA 344
Nov-88 -143 NA NA 034
Dec-88 174 NA NA 116
Jan-89 731 NA NA 398
Feb-89 -248 NA NA -089
Mar-89 232 NA NA 07
Apr-89 52 NA NA 323
May-89 405 NA NA 14
Jun-89 -057 NA NA 004
Jul-89 903 NA NA 742
Aug-89 195 NA NA -04
Sep-89 -041 NA NA 113
Oct-89 -232 NA NA -171
Nov-89 204 NA NA 23
Dec-89 24 NA NA 194
Jan-90 -671 NA NA -478
Feb-90 13 NA NA -08
Mar-90 264 NA NA -117
Apr-90 -249 NA NA -177
May-90 975 NA NA 786
Jun-90 -067 NA NA -001
Jul-90 -032 NA NA 019
Aug-90 -904 NA NA -722
Sep-90 -487 NA NA -53
Oct-90 -043 NA NA 295
Nov-90 646 NA NA 26
Dec-90 279 NA NA 235
Jan-91 435 NA NA 348
Feb-91 715 NA NA 62
Mar-91 242 NA NA 049
Apr-91 024 NA NA 058
May-91 431 NA NA 257
Jun-91 -458 NA NA -379
Jul-91 466 NA NA 377
Aug-91 237 NA NA 166
Sep-91 -167 NA NA 095
Oct-91 134 NA NA 152
Nov-91 -403 NA NA -26
Dec-91 1144 NA NA 76
Jan-92 -186 -50186134107 NA -101
Feb-92 13 -11806985257 NA 03
Mar-92 -194 -34682100213 NA -245
Apr-92 294 04856690806 NA 135
May-92 049 36691977834 NA 196
Jun-92 -149 3995994645 NA -144
Jul-92 409 58382478439 NA 241
Aug-92 -205 21392596519 NA 003
Sep-92 118 -10417441781 NA 069
Oct-92 035 -11426309261 NA -063
Nov-92 34 -24243841368 NA 231
Dec-92 123 03309287484 NA 157
Jan-93 084 12125566229 NA 109
Feb-93 136 59842293696 NA 136
Mar-93 211 -06484088187 NA 282
Apr-93 -242 09183032136 NA 027
May-93 268 -00124707027 NA 196
Jun-93 029 75565231659 NA 064
Jul-93 -04 34694235802 NA 068
Aug-93 379 26998187389 NA 356
Sep-93 -077 -35544940483 NA -032
Oct-93 207 12906000348 NA 154
Nov-93 -095 39231376084 NA -251
Dec-93 121 23140907663 NA 262
Jan-94 34 -16392143954 NA 357
Feb-94 -271 -5375365439 NA -19
Mar-94 -436 -17526970615 NA -389
Apr-94 128 -31042584129 NA 106
May-94 164 21687630069 NA 058
Jun-94 -245 -02802505425 NA -136
Jul-94 328 -09170406074 NA 249
Aug-94 41 03148132864 NA 3
Sep-94 -245 49091708791 NA -203
Oct-94 225 33710507687 NA 14
Nov-94 -364 -02736669026 NA -3 SampP 500 Index MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol 7030 Portfolio
Dec-94 148 11635880505 NA 095 Dec-94 100 100 100 100
Jan-95 259 1488846469 18462 078 Jan-95 103 101 102 101
Feb-95 39 18245801927 -04746 274 Feb-95 107 103 101 104
Mar-95 295 37741988604 70854 257 Mar-95 110 107 109 106
Apr-95 294 20196669281 31179 254 Apr-95 113 109 112 109
May-95 4 4438151788 78944 291 May-95 117 114 121 112
Jun-95 232 15287989065 -04753 152 Jun-95 120 116 120 114
Jul-95 332 -14769041128 -2252 32 Jul-95 124 114 117 117
Aug-95 025 -36439459991 -31269 016 Aug-95 125 110 114 118
Sep-95 422 05926567612 39491 274 Sep-95 130 111 118 121
Oct-95 -036 2635846499 25163 -064 Oct-95 129 114 121 120
Nov-95 439 27162162082 33589 332 Nov-95 135 117 125 124
Dec-95 193 4331305919 47021 198 Dec-95 138 122 131 126
Jan-96 34 19634168588 54269 207 Jan-96 142 124 138 129
Feb-96 093 -13857157749 -37777 042 Feb-96 144 123 133 130
Mar-96 096 3570816298 36706 074 Mar-96 145 127 138 131
Apr-96 147 47035792726 48573 151 Apr-96 147 133 145 133
May-96 258 04897246276 -23907 119 May-96 151 134 141 134
Jun-96 038 04231657395 28546 021 Jun-96 151 134 145 134
Jul-96 -442 -32825387444 -5322 -362 Jul-96 145 130 138 130
Aug-96 211 50232432929 29044 183 Aug-96 148 136 142 132
Sep-96 563 54206924649 82056 405 Sep-96 156 144 153 137
Oct-96 276 51159466491 83507 144 Oct-96 160 151 166 139
Nov-96 756 43728165918 864 527 Nov-96 173 158 180 147
Dec-96 -198 14093703517 -07113 -113 Dec-96 169 160 179 145
Jan-97 625 17011191838 -16167 314 Jan-97 180 162 176 150
Feb-97 078 -17477703643 -15622 041 Feb-97 181 160 173 150
Mar-97 -411 -0910181567 12022 -309 Mar-97 174 158 175 145
Apr-97 597 09232176853 15126 349 Apr-97 184 160 178 151
May-97 609 -06805906276 09263 543 May-97 195 159 180 159
Jun-97 448 14017438969 -08095 375 Jun-97 204 161 178 165
Jul-97 796 41579104051 60499 584 Jul-97 220 167 189 174
Aug-97 -56 -24491709033 -58848 -401 Aug-97 208 163 178 167
Sep-97 548 23206853381 65934 476 Sep-97 219 167 190 175
Oct-97 -334 3155194786 26194 -317 Oct-97 212 172 195 170
Nov-97 463 1734137994 34076 24 Nov-97 222 175 201 174
Dec-97 172 50839377232 45191 168 Dec-97 226 184 210 177
Jan-98 111 -0540706989 01984 101 Jan-98 228 183 211 178
Feb-98 721 40902523842 09547 561 Feb-98 245 191 213 189
Mar-98 512 4564059454 36725 385 Mar-98 257 200 221 196
Apr-98 101 10197007162 2729 086 Apr-98 260 202 227 197
May-98 -172 66464318242 49967 -174 May-98 255 215 238 194
Jun-98 406 14535097859 12227 237 Jun-98 266 218 241 199
Jul-98 -106 79600070571 25845 -106 143 Jul-98 263 235 247 197
Aug-98 -1446 85969949752 100188 -1191 Aug-98 225 256 272 173
Sep-98 641 -43471273323 13057 462 Sep-98 239 245 275 181
Oct-98 813 -21914686666 -48215 62 Oct-98 259 239 262 192
Nov-98 606 35427775078 -16838 49 Nov-98 274 248 258 202
Dec-98 576 46223079694 36184 48 Dec-98 290 259 267 211
Jan-99 418 11652083769 -13599 243 Jan-99 302 262 263 217
Feb-99 -311 08705260303 -29127 -306 Feb-99 293 264 256 210
Mar-99 4 -66775958823 -24295 326 Mar-99 305 247 250 217
Apr-99 387 22077437514 51823 383 Apr-99 316 252 263 225
May-99 -236 05593377297 -19638 -207 May-99 309 254 257 220
Jun-99 555 0821055256 43706 406 Jun-99 326 256 269 229
Jul-99 -312 -05417097185 00435 -19 Jul-99 316 254 269 225
Aug-99 -049 12651757883 01021 -075 Aug-99 314 258 269 223
Sep-99 -274 24672781685 05889 -147 Sep-99 306 264 271 220
Oct-99 633 -17330628613 -47866 486 Oct-99 325 259 258 231
Nov-99 203 37710155755 29817 248 Nov-99 332 269 265 236
Dec-99 589 30182108515 60293 568 Dec-99 351 277 281 250
Jan-00 -502 24897212667 -25282 -359 Jan-00 334 284 274 241
Feb-00 -189 -05713037029 10256 122 Feb-00 327 283 277 244
Mar-00 978 -24716293218 -3378 621 Mar-00 359 276 268 259
Apr-00 -301 03990582414 -22613 -331 1573 Apr-00 348 277 262 250
May-00 -205 24192880579 0877 -232 May-00 341 283 264 245
Jun-00 247 0878887186 -34187 3 Jun-00 350 286 255 252
Jul-00 -156 24260079771 12301 -165 Jul-00 344 293 258 248
Aug-00 621 75396102385 45179 559 Aug-00 366 315 270 262
Sep-00 -528 09222855204 04031 -385 Sep-00 346 318 271 252
Oct-00 -042 299852918 44133 -131 Oct-00 345 327 283 248
Nov-00 -788 5315579778 110553 -68 Nov-00 318 345 314 231
Dec-00 049 -25942802121 -17463 193 Dec-00 319 336 308 236
1-Jan 355 -00863561154 -04261 284 Jan-01 331 335 307 243
1-Feb -912 16209515233 74179 -716 Feb-01 300 341 330 225
1-Mar -633 48299554873 94097 -52 Mar-01 281 357 361 213
1-Apr 777 -43323517245 -65179 61 Apr-01 303 342 337 227
1-May 067 24991627761 11086 031 May-01 305 350 341 227
1-Jun -243 -01569851257 00543 -165 Jun-01 298 350 341 223
1-Jul -098 -21829671963 -05079 -093 Jul-01 295 342 340 221
1-Aug -626 -26070979092 17884 -404 Aug-01 276 333 346 212
1-Sep -808 10636654952 60561 -685 Sep-01 254 337 367 198
1-Oct 191 09408124501 22528 233 Oct-01 259 340 375 203
1-Nov 767 -16137664028 -837 519 Nov-01 279 334 344 213
1-Dec 088 07970479005 -2992 094 Dec-01 281 337 333 215
2-Jan -146 01132698972 -26759 -115 Jan-02 277 338 324 213
2-Feb -193 -02410246265 -26221 -106 Feb-02 272 337 316 210
2-Mar 376 -64656658879 -37678 312 Mar-02 282 315 304 217
2-Apr -606 01559405489 -06737 -3 Apr-02 265 315 302 210
2-May -074 19425675286 49554 -043 May-02 263 322 317 209
2-Jun -712 46154392532 59609 -498 Jun-02 244 336 336 199
2-Jul -78 -09755577412 44704 -592 Jul-02 225 333 351 187
2-Aug 066 36669673432 29178 074 Aug-02 227 345 361 189
2-Sep -1087 42995914132 68228 -728 Sep-02 202 360 386 175
2-Oct 88 -18586716944 -39428 521 Oct-02 220 354 370 184
2-Nov 589 -06691963741 -43217 423 Nov-02 233 351 354 192
2-Dec -587 10504712371 65168 -333 Dec-02 219 388 377 185
3-Jan -262 79413180181 78029 -186 Jan-03 213 419 407 182
3-Feb -15 5839796145 24675 -082 Feb-03 210 443 417 180
3-Mar 097 -4822187841 -49263 039 Mar-03 212 422 396 181
3-Apr 824 08044165566 01717 619 Apr-03 230 425 397 192
3-May 527 86017617168 75621 492 May-03 242 462 427 202
3-Jun 128 -16232843116 -23723 11 Jun-03 245 454 417 204
3-Jul 176 -58470688666 -38819 084 Jul-03 249 428 401 206
3-Aug 195 -01285241001 24459 191 Aug-03 254 427 411 210
3-Sep -106 62607424571 26964 031 Sep-03 251 454 422 210
3-Oct 566 09634730462 79884 431 Oct-03 266 458 455 219
3-Nov 088 23264834944 02951 12 Nov-03 268 469 457 222
3-Dec 524 14110879536 8856 41 Dec-03 282 476 497 231
4-Jan 184 19478633231 26613 172 Jan-04 287 485 510 235
4-Feb 139 52879779623 57235 144 Feb-04 291 511 540 239
4-Mar -151 2268957551 -03792 -05 Mar-04 287 522 538 237
4-Apr -157 -56830338449 -105019 -233 Apr-04 282 493 481 232
4-May 137 -16566072328 -32214 087 May-04 286 484 466 234
4-Jun 194 -17215338796 -23435 168 Jun-04 292 476 455 238
4-Jul -331 -06069797015 -19673 -258 Jul-04 282 473 446 232
4-Aug 04 -05707405134 -31134 082 Aug-04 283 470 432 234
4-Sep 108 70162697766 75979 145 Sep-04 286 503 465 237
4-Oct 153 34033420009 3203 17 Oct-04 291 521 480 241
4-Nov 405 45583596598 79681 368 Nov-04 302 544 518 250
4-Dec 34 01240939032 07905 307 Dec-04 313 545 522 257
5-Jan -244 16755564551 -35158 -181 Jan-05 305 554 504 253
5-Feb 21 -20025648058 07235 196 Feb-05 311 543 507 258
5-Mar -177 -10751895082 -32131 -158 Mar-05 306 537 491 254
5-Apr -19 -2390258099 -3307 -143 Apr-05 300 524 475 250
5-May 318 08685813036 14103 272 May-05 310 529 481 257
5-Jun 014 2223478206 2443 083 Jun-05 310 541 493 259
5-Jul 372 -21671781188 16173 293 Jul-05 322 529 501 267
5-Aug -091 49286219575 23044 002 Aug-05 319 555 513 267
5-Sep 081 37034231946 44919 108 Sep-05 321 576 536 270
5-Oct -167 -41709576663 -50465 -191 Oct-05 316 552 509 264
5-Nov 378 22186228209 731 307 Nov-05 328 564 546 272
5-Dec 003 15087373486 26914 097 Dec-05 328 572 561 275
6-Jan 265 05184116785 49735 32 Jan-06 337 575 588 284
6-Feb 027 -12693666599 -08661 013 Feb-06 338 568 583 284
6-Mar 125 20763323239 66529 136 Mar-06 342 580 622 288
6-Apr 134 -11401031738 110633 149 Apr-06 346 573 691 292
6-May -288 -38328436628 -15079 -283 May-06 336 551 681 284
6-Jun 014 -17992981531 -41286 014 Jun-06 337 541 652 285
6-Jul 062 -32543371611 -14002 038 Jul-06 339 524 643 286
6-Aug 238 -01076272465 29098 232 Aug-06 347 523 662 292
6-Sep 258 07974403785 -03827 16 Sep-06 356 527 659 297
6-Oct 326 -29512764216 -00218 309 Oct-06 368 512 659 306
6-Nov 19 03172013357 58364 222 Nov-06 375 513 698 313
6-Dec 14 25165243518 03787 117 Dec-06 380 526 700 317
7-Jan 151 -10891073316 07036 127 Jan-07 386 520 705 321
7-Feb -196 -0242828355 -13437 -066 Feb-07 378 519 696 318
7-Mar 112 -24787732727 -10187 115 Mar-07 382 506 689 322
7-Apr 443 02879881174 68079 345 Apr-07 399 508 736 333
7-May 349 04724656451 33768 267 May-07 413 510 761 342
7-Jun -166 06726351642 29473 -111 Jun-07 406 514 783 338
7-Jul -31 -10308231752 -62002 -209 Jul-07 394 508 734 331
7-Aug 15 -48378452877 -4152 085 Aug-07 400 484 704 334
7-Sep 374 50760632525 70341 364 Sep-07 415 508 753 346
7-Oct 159 36478459472 64209 235 2672 Oct-07 421 527 802 354
7-Nov -418 -09519733939 -29049 -338 Nov-07 404 522 779 342
7-Dec -069 -00407441673 00631 -06 Dec-07 401 522 779 340
8-Jan -6 38885050267 87377 -527 Jan-08 377 542 847 322
8-Feb -325 79938792923 97517 -138 Feb-08 364 585 930 318
8-Mar -043 -01164410281 -17484 -069 Mar-08 363 585 913 316
8-Apr 487 -11768609649 -73215 412 Apr-08 381 578 847 329
8-May 13 26727320318 02045 143 May-08 385 593 848 334
8-Jun -843 38796643349 38908 -664 Jun-08 353 616 881 311
8-Jul -084 -111000927524 -63133 -116 Jul-08 350 548 826 308
8-Aug 145 -81389596386 09693 032 Aug-08 355 503 834 309
8-Sep -891 2350077992 4926 -863 Sep-08 323 515 875 282
8-Oct -1679 231353875038 118043 -1488 Oct-08 269 634 978 240
8-Nov -718 91409930423 52566 -464 Nov-08 250 692 1029 229
8-Dec 106 39012647249 17001 298 Dec-08 252 719 1047 236
9-Jan -843 36085657209 -01782 -629 Jan-09 231 745 1045 221
9-Feb -1065 17480110926 0841 -723 Feb-09 207 758 1054 205
9-Mar 876 -40891209192 -17399 626 Mar-09 225 727 1035 218
9-Apr 957 -52452980511 -24793 785 Apr-09 246 689 1010 235
9-May 559 -175764056892 24393 525 May-09 260 568 1034 247
9-Jun 02 26344903362 -3873 018 Jun-09 260 583 994 248
9-Jul 756 29911557926 15775 638 Jul-09 280 600 1010 264
9-Aug 361 66647387555 02737 292 Aug-09 290 640 1013 271
9-Sep 373 19908108013 31657 353 Sep-09 301 653 1045 281
9-Oct -186 -1135758063 -18836 -156 Oct-09 295 646 1025 276
9-Nov 6 429598654 65618 406 Nov-09 313 673 1092 288
9-Dec 193 -3538041182 -30108 161 Dec-09 319 649 1060 292
10-Jan -36 -22840646395 -587 -256 Jan-10 308 635 997 285
10-Feb 31 13842186803 10589 206 Feb-10 317 643 1008 291
10-Mar 603 38205356429 32922 477 Mar-10 336 668 1041 304
10-Apr 158 14253968325 03791 14 Apr-10 342 678 1045 309
10-May -799 -05569215148 17471 -621 May-10 314 674 1063 290
10-Jun -523 -23229482293 07896 -318 Jun-10 298 658 1072 280
10-Jul 701 -52850060701 -35575 569 Jul-10 319 623 1034 296
10-Aug -451 76993453056 43121 -284 Aug-10 305 671 1078 288
10-Sep 892 05035470246 12552 702 Sep-10 332 675 1092 308
10-Oct 38 35726262618 52271 293 Oct-10 344 699 1149 317
10-Nov 001 -46572458071 -67101 -044 Nov-10 344 666 1072 316
10-Dec 668 71205616987 60114 502 Dec-10 367 714 1136 332
11-Jan 237 14260916813 02413 151 Jan-11 376 724 1139 337
11-Feb 343 -08196213636 14822 271 Feb-11 389 718 1156 346
11-Mar 004 -25144800567 -53504 026 Mar-11 389 700 1094 347
11-Apr 296 51621261523 44419 292 Apr-11 401 736 1142 357
11-May -113 -18535770592 -51957 -088 May-11 396 722 1083 354
11-Jun -167 08676483656 -46402 -14 Jun-11 389 729 1033 349
11-Jul -203 93387304437 48149 -126 Jul-11 382 797 1083 344
11-Aug -543 3189583693 00543 -469 Aug-11 361 822 1083 328
11-Sep -703 -41599527992 34989 -619 Sep-11 335 788 1121 308
11-Oct 1093 -13852548076 -6243 834 Oct-11 372 777 1051 333
11-Nov -022 39284953285 -00578 -096 Nov-11 371 808 1050 330
11-Dec 102 01889893545 02082 061 Dec-11 375 809 1053 332
12-Jan 448 -01521632453 -04526 426 Jan-12 392 808 1048 346
12-Feb 432 -22430032837 14221 342 Feb-12 409 790 1063 358
12-Mar 329 -12258940456 -21399 158 Mar-12 422 780 1040 364
12-Apr -063 13756177692 -18216 -038 Apr-12 420 791 1021 363
12-May -601 43616823461 38067 -528 May-12 394 825 1060 343
12-Jun 412 -61107318666 -83896 324 Jun-12 411 775 971 355
12-Jul 139 -2662867044 20145 115 Jul-12 416 754 991 359
12-Aug 225 -29540623033 -22929 186 Aug-12 426 732 968 365
12-Sep 258 -47724948882 -20234 22 Sep-12 437 697 948 373
12-Oct -185 -18050840884 -36659 -098 Oct-12 429 684 914 370
12-Nov 058 -03984415062 -0944 079 Nov-12 431 682 905 373
12-Dec 091 -17220762656 24366 124 Dec-12 435 670 927 377
13-Jan 518 -04335912154 32593 387 Jan-13 458 667 957 392
13-Feb 136 -29598734504 01523 08 Feb-13 464 647 959 395
13-Mar 375 -04786782014 2166 255 Mar-13 481 644 979 405
13-Apr 193 11854540053 29259 181 Apr-13 490 652 1008 412
13-May 234 -43222576245 -06784 082 May-13 502 624 1001 416
13-Jun -134 06875789801 10553 -177 Jun-13 495 628 1012 408
13-Jul 509 06412005306 -19554 423 Jul-13 520 632 992 426
13-Aug -29 11512128942 -11474 -214 Aug-13 505 639 981 417
13-Sep 314 -19925877399 -05148 361 Sep-13 521 626 976 432
13-Oct 46 -07538953205 -06933 349 Oct-13 545 622 969 447
13-Nov 305 27584740935 46402 189 Nov-13 562 639 1014 455
13-Dec 253 19377872096 15067 18 Dec-13 576 651 1029 463
14-Jan -346 -08961192857 -51141 -251 Jan-14 556 645 976 452
14-Feb 457 -00139276726 -05865 399 Feb-14 581 645 971 470
14-Mar 084 -34260446582 -18865 037 Mar-14 586 623 952 471
14-Apr 074 22210329784 03199 043 Apr-14 591 637 955 473
14-May 235 -07288421342 07134 197 May-14 605 632 962 483
14-Jun 207 05841054246 00135 195 Jun-14 617 636 962 492
14-Jul -138 -00888949644 03097 -153 Jul-14 609 636 965 485
14-Aug 4 18791535569 48657 313 Aug-14 633 648 1012 500
14-Sep -14 69028951277 63915 -221 Sep-14 624 692 1077 489
14-Oct 244 21563513841 15927 194 Oct-14 639 707 1094 498
14-Nov 269 72204527611 104647 19 Nov-14 657 758 1209 508 LTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98)
14-Dec -025 76468641712 47745 -044 Dec-14 655 816 1266 506 Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02)
15-Jan -3 54094515689 113573 -159 Jan-15 635 860 1410 497 Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09)
15-Feb 575 -50846010492 -16603 45 Feb-15 672 817 1387 520
15-Mar -158 65245129876 57568 -083 Mar-15 661 870 1467 516
15-Apr 096 -88441663253 -51219 09 Apr-15 667 793 1392 520
15-May 129 40875447394 08884 073 May-15 676 825 1404 524
15-Jun -194 -66047202646 -62159 -171 Jun-15 663 771 1317 515
15-Jul 21 80060563143 34205 126 Jul-15 677 833 1362 522
15-Aug -603 -10026780942 -24342 -522 Aug-15 636 824 1329 494
15-Sep -247 36089130828 34355 -247 Sep-15 620 854 1374 482
15-Oct 844 -16993598229 -58073 637 Oct-15 673 839 1294 513
15-Nov 03 48441920313 30487 01 Nov-15 675 880 1334 513
15-Dec -158 11998205926 -10345 -173 Dec-15 664 891 1320 504
16-Jan -496 31480723033 48626 -453 Jan-16 631 919 1384 482
16-Feb -013 33572073647 44379 -002 Feb-16 630 950 1446 481
16-Mar 678 -61786855584 -39621 601 Mar-16 673 891 1388 510
16-Apr 039 -31282642584 09914 082 Apr-16 676 863 1402 515
16-May 18 -08911812015 -5253 107 May-16 688 855 1328 520
16-Jun 026 65324823204 94059 03 Jun-16 690 911 1453 522
16-Jul 369 21567955023 02767 348 Jul-16 715 931 1457 540
16-Aug 014 -15149 -44038 024 Aug-16 716 917 1393 541
16-Sep 002 10335 0967 025 Sep-16 716 926 1407 542
-41363
Correllation 100 -022 -015 097
skew -04 02 01 -08
Kurt 198 469 -028 186

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 5

CROSM Implementation Considerations (Platform Manager)

bull Act as fiduciary to the plan

bull Key role gathering and accounting for all long-short positions across all component managers

bull Reconciling manager position data with primary broker position data

bull Provide account administrative functions very similar to RISIC custodian function

bull Netting all positions and providing risk analyticscharacteristics of aggregate portfolio

bull Monitoring and managing risk levels per client directionguidelinesbull Re-setting manager account levels (ie rebalancing among managers)bull Directing managers to adjust collateral levels

bull Provide best-practices user-interfaces to asset-owners such as RISIC

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 6

CROSM Class Management Diagram

bull Within this construct the asset-owner (ie RISIC)bull Searches for and selects platform managerbull Searches for and selects component managers (funds)bull Determines level of guideline authority to assign to platform manager

PlatformManager

RIA and Fiduciary

BrokersTrade Execution Admin - NAV Calculations

SubscriptionsRedemptions

Trade Reconciliation

(vetted by platform manager)

PlatformManager

Client CustodianCash Safekeeping

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 7

Systematic Trend Following Benchmark Review

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 8

bull Momentum and Trend Following are somewhat interchangeable terms

bull That which has done well recently will continue to do well

bull That which has done poorly recently will continue to do poorly

bull Buy what is going up sell what is going down

Ex if SampP 500 has a positive 1-year return buygo long Ex if oil has a negative 1-year return sellshort

bull This results in a volatile yet low correlation return vs risky assets (eg equities) over a full market cycle

Often a positive correlation during strong (extended) bull markets and a negative correlation during major bear markets

Description ndash What is Systematic Trend Following

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 9

bull Trend horizon or lookback period = the length of time that the signal is ldquolooking backrdquo to see if the total return index is higher (lower) today than 30 days 3 months 1 year ago etc

bull Moving average (MA) crossover is a methodology to identify a trend - if short term MA is above longer term MA = Uptrend (buy market)- if short term MA is below longer term MA = Downtrend (sell market)

bull The trend horizon of a moving average is half of its moving average ndash this makes sense

Trend Following Terminology

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Example The average lookback of an equally weighted moving average is total days in the moving average divided by two

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 10

bull Manage long and short positions according to systematic signals

bull Implemented in futures and forwards (currency) markets (see Appendix)

bull Investable universe includes liquid markets across the globe Equities = typically broad indices such as SampP 500 Nikkei 225 etc Fixed Income = typically sovereign bondsrates such as US 10-year Treasury Currencies = typically major currencies such as JPY GBP EUR AUD CAD CHF Commodities = energy metals and agriculture components

bull Strategy implementation volatility is customizable (range anywhere from roughly 5-30 (capable of offsetting equity asymp 18-20)

bull Systematic = rules-based implementation

bull Related terms = managed futures CTAs (commodity trading advisors)

How do systematic trend following managers invest

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 11

Basic Trend Following Example

bull Single Asset Example 21 day average price gt 252 day average price = long position 21 day average price lt 252 day average price = short position

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 12

bull The RISICrsquos Trend Following allocation and corresponding managers should be compiled based on assessing the following criteria

Trend Horizons Short asymp lt1 month Medium asymp 1-11 months Long asymp12+ months

Systematic implementation = quantitatively-oriented firmso Graduate (PhD Masters) backgrounds in mathematics physics computer scienceo Straight forward strategy design (ie humility)

Focus on global futures markets (ie utilize forwards on limited basis)

Strong focus on risk management and diversification

Target gt15 annual standard deviationo Required in order to meaningfully impact portfolio

RISIC Mandate ndash Trend Following Allocation

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 13

Why medium-term trends

o Trend Horizons Short asymp lt1 month | Medium asymp 1-11 months | Long asymp12+ months

o Medium to long-term trends provide most robust return patterns - whyo Short term trends are too short (risk getting whipsawed in choppy markets)o Long term trends are too long (longer time to turn lower hit ratios)

o The average of all trend horizons traded is the horizon of the strategy

Using a larger number of moving average signals reduces the dependency on individual data points and leads to an increased robustness of the strategy vs more concentrated strategies shorter drawdown periods

What length of trend is best How many

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 14

bull Benchmarking Trend Following strategies is imperfectbull Primarily due to different volatility targets markets traded and trend horizons (lookback)

bull Benchmark characteristicsbull Construction based on consistently applied tradingrisk-management rulesbull Inclusive of markets traded by managers (rates currency commodities equities)bull Broad scalable investible published available at low cost as a simple option bull Comparable to the strategies run by managers that will be sourced

bull Institutional investors track several major benchmarks bull MLM 3X IndexTM (Investable rules-based)bull Credit Suisse Managed Futures Liquid IndexTM 15 Target Volatility (Investable rules-based)bull Societe Generale Trend IndexTM (Uninvestable 10 largest trend managers)

Trend Following Benchmarks

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 15

Investable Trend Following Benchmark Comparisons

Source Mount Lucas Management Credit Suisse

Several distinctions between indices can produce different performance behaviors

Selected Investable STF Benchmark Characteristics

MLM Index 3X trade (with interest on cash)

Credit Suisse Managed Futures Liquid Indextrade

15 Target VolBasic trend signal Time-series momentum Moving Average Crossover

of look-back periods utilized 1 16Range of look-back periods only 12-months 1-month to 9-months

Average look-back period 12-months 5 monthsMarkets traded

Number of markets 22 31

Major market segmentsFixed Income (5)

Currencies (6) Commodities (11)

Fixed Income (4) Currencies (5)

Commodities (17) (in 4 aggregated contracts)

Equities (5)Contracts traded 22 18Trading Frequency Monthly Daily

Volatility Framework

Leveraged to set volatility at 3-times non-levered index volatility Volatility is not

bounded but results from construction

Leveraged to target volatility at an expected forward-looking standard deviation of 15

(within a range of variation)SampP 500

1995-2016 Volatility

Index Volatility 1995-2016 141 147 149Inclusion of return on cash Yes YesYear of Inception Index 1970 1995

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 16

The Credit Suisse MF Liquid Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLMtrade 3x Index

Several years where indices diverge particularly in more recent calendar years but both provided major offset in severe down markets-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Annu

al R

etur

ns -

Calendar Year Returns

MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol 7030 Portfolio

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 17

The Credit Suisse MF Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLM 3x Index

CSMF IndexTM

15 volhas produced a similar but more consistent return pattern versus MLM 3X IndexTM

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

Growth of $1 ndash Index Comparisons

MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol

SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio

Returns to systematic trend following are episodic with long periods of little going on

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 18

The Credit Suisse MF Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLM 3x Index

Comparative Performance Statistics

MLM 3x and Credit Suisse 15 Vol exhibit similar statistical characteristics

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Periods Ending 93020161 Year 85 124 07 24 162 01 125 105 12 154 125 12

3 Years 139 145 10 130 156 08 79 90 09 112 108 105 Years 33 129 03 46 138 03 120 92 13 164 111 15

10 Years 58 163 03 79 144 05 62 124 04 72 153 0420 Years 98 141 05 117 147 06 71 121 04 79 154 04

Statistical MeasuresLargest Drawdown - period

Largest Drawdown - -5095Largest Drawdown - of months 16

Recovery PeriodRecovery Duration 37

Crisis Period ReturnsLTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98) -100

Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02) -206Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09) -388

SampP 500

Nov-07 - Feb-09

Mar-09 - Mar-12

113 127 -145

Jun-09 - Jul-11 Dec-12 - Nov-14 Mar-09 - Apr-1126 24

326 277 -309

121 143 -88

26

-2509 -277 -42163 21 16

MLM 3x Credit Suisse 15 Vol 7030

Mar-09 - May-09 Mar-11 - Nov-12 Nov-07 - Feb-09

Data

Growth of $1 - Selected Indices

SampP 500 Index3466934700347313475934790348203485134881349123494334973350043503435065350963512535156351863521735247352783530935339353703540035431354623549035521355513558235612356433567435704357353576535796358273585535886359163594735977360083603936069361003613036161361923622036251362813631236342363733640436434364653649536526365573658636617366473667836708367393677036800368313686136892369233695136982370123704337073371043713537165371963722637257372883731637347373773740837438374693750037530375613759137622376533768137712377423777337803378343786537895379263795637987380183804738078381083813938169382003823138261382923832238353383843841238443384733850438534385653859638626386573868738718387493877738808388383886938899389303896138991390223905239083391143914239173392033923439264392953932639356393873941739448394793950839539395693960039630396613969239722397533978339814398453987339904399343996539995400264005740087401184014840179402104023840269402994033040360403914042240452404834051340544405754060340634406644069540725407564078740817408484087840909409404096941000410304106141091411224115341183412144124441275413064133441365413954142641456414874151841548415794160941640416714169941730417604179141821418524188341913419444197442005420364206442095421254215642186422174224842278423094233942370424014243042461424914252242552425834261411025910659101109735444795000011129616668719730211748013354685194120205672645138931241965009769575412450699222939992129761187301480581292940470271952513497005569168912137574977766538731422525270106010514357547551179966144953800076712951470846209378406315087940415803691151452745893837461447585345253298514781293960381431561348081035090416044412880716591725737049449876516915674558707691797290421862691918113092871532211736864475451223718405552846356619195264510146997352040123602015828222025174407362882207917646405505612193115334285272921198652821201449221801504468230752256164903450843522812083338791482244568345475183512570902447635128825968685623562435255220242308371642655821841460915226276701299414293224770902915189862391787177920535525862394754854749274296558769989482900960405551408930222205505034578292822949138280023045358671038112431632140516072873308856219998935533259977402088765131582661071435956314279060321859173056678140690402232501658669961042331614423409612513511465129484386633351895799842701327215449692256753592171206721594134840468533992741341262389290458933496915703059332534423638180916072365613461119509613463090703723995334485457227683547317680031981420853192366641381297733056956571503342300421621321822428140493269215101303270095962331173053020056052787829788316686907052949639118337536127649917095296064254158037939961412590124564646146627887871187545059281332844539954552772253850096712227187493507898459282097432637954442650023282200944263041310991265712443127696486875822525637361608997226743065681956152020960944423275221988055075325237232831515192618932191643052508121921342220045324092102208674464422621226000986067275229750234673192224185807204046941244953855362587424926504321696896254125711559699925143197901716707265663029029538712680008636849986528204410894209262872337205466271291226269262225212868287525963656228232554118060267286193401094776962917455530760156628208877526919953283217130370276322862758753782752629065589627156293024274600705612312709993712960313050798698663641131148654713355772305973235249293743001597437795571630970482363174709310138410384831563216755592511472831874831166196183321330172986423731596395909755043279073967514378332800576897046323336697921848180483376070062371705534182709381513519346407576872258013364310386583369433690204211245862338990834773555873470588166411665135601293411050863367618955762511183746037159219988637984816794490683385583875280874937802643132536975382260327356213913991944598580941941312634650714166406268449155123173936741272313143239957923913978401414523502683611964211144263762814340351184335375292400727611634612043766839549365352836444172640109791362874626977573238054662131138102385493727388428953529966061695843935003143467775993551068904805874132346686653876708269156779646908124983132286826009252479534890663612311955100993806420657318827379658224668999566581152461698228251029425993071592102619260450577352868252801406410007451229025371814087202301080181827526562954800904455345831320889587226666319253827562601433077606897703477631730127115322853364345378037681734175020350106773314444362241332432979989220961107431888864653504814304506768576317473316687723333249734427218568199134344306612900559553673062946423169376011453825339853889086466915490138906421015022561400580510770672323960539509989637438943985001728101381534221061930223608169128582674335451483884331213721163310728886371297675144528233750849114310024239188871546311134088183079711177142226843030336747419608139192456253943896900269896410638545256101574163464210351613742571421550845248436697642268570534286187358866019543110472455474422435027777548192424575622164251887746378506256857133481177002414892834904637185615003550194056957583948495214565943523245204209873500485850532877871689719521196102368607855451711230775638156179884233142952576012353042414745560823256271471758149528790830782586379848326737555907190592043554660460095709565786617116196907537966085999933902138963294399312582256240827772220609663931039698627927656507846665210166548665770485471663522057973709076671745763071973566611321800154363466747904894358454676089528674956696629733918186625367689583304685437636079014314129056203678626605700767272691026912224674745090999929526640841185621305963114554628144894630325057071283167306109594071613675686034214884936878483828307528568963678862611273715084386126416237160855042669932271622872136784661MLM Index 3X 34669347003473134759347903482034851348813491234943349733500435034350653509635125351563518635217352473527835309353393537035400354313546235490355213555135582356123564335674357043573535765357963582735855358863591635947359773600836039360693610036130361613619236220362513628136312363423637336404364343646536495365263655736586366173664736678367083673936770368003683136861368923692336951369823701237043370733710437135371653719637226372573728837316373473737737408374383746937500375303756137591376223765337681377123774237773378033783437865378953792637956379873801838047380783810838139381693820038231382613829238322383533838438412384433847338504385343856538596386263865738687387183874938777388083883838869388993893038961389913902239052390833911439142391733920339234392643929539326393563938739417394483947939508395393956939600396303966139692397223975339783398143984539873399043993439965399954002640057400874011840148401794021040238402694029940330403604039140422404524048340513405444057540603406344066440695407254075640787408174084840878409094094040969410004103041061410914112241153411834121441244412754130641334413654139541426414564148741518415484157941609416404167141699417304176041791418214185241883419134194441974420054203642064420954212542156421864221742248422784230942339423704240142430424614249142522425524258342614110148884646900895103340591859474421072408712997243110940677971075865114262418660692781160092612677171142959157168208311013103426890634110783733289700331137038224450235111679226409959909121850894347440231242433353496411812252167585248812126896699822459641328653866929275813351606121318145134081055440927281296797928471894713619392434367088143576578138179231509218792763344715752141625393705159741476392170381624588692915244715961946131990337158166634405606991596268567466747615854045132050956160762782421028591674471548787969116334608788312481167136836594916961724103293485745617540016237536971184317397396999281833207803473638519081906293617161199528158418133362015627484786143521495947913924032218083936204276442354434329164940125568449301383946244569562533616392392098972026799324768457163719559259133315331014382621527584284674826443486642972855246776974677741692522251779160873425363596849993599255718459950524222543332082009850425755097037285197263905469237608912593318215612296269111264944554352772336103456553228413595450075206282512675271448142755300091516830227662953436071924283321999650090952858120804002444629274590427040774314817804441657153177213234675698932724829006272378344643433993104513357024175828066833541251801571748340849392335919133573122662643302134183224213506169350375186287367593498251493609266634218858110597834333267389762584413368122399944071733998101148189912334494512142795573371605936289772133754249508694474336728934548908533149571666931522831544831262756059321576109118041663364182590872654433313630471808207345352304220459553602010422381642353506087423034153511404375039457388026730482139434188411671450271744330063747749886421923848037816734253178733277496646190270333054864454404709212399464278353529314546427285481394055114540367249408701545841124640575002469076108389668847569518484822714849610768837257251060571175497652219113860765338492514839465369294843558030123659847601745376581057473128124445944394704277905596145950343427344960032520567863524614445442972190172910554497265868140495541039832423297543007691886491815371693301544380252432959673518953528883825581519765406434421783125752892673579868639554995535038222757554936841166908551543447906696125637801167088788657228607789353605575252875755654567950807540961575797433537416528573133681365925715511663633801610754124923718312337523635162123404735230715880167218252724277206795183511682380451475985133054437969212552622290028893799520491768101300335192278665029281450635738492353615078156340236386551021488843485043513646773187677665083519832107603248375870074608462508314598385507925268571318619042852184159214284254521628972131248554191254093339198585232375325283725845509247309335557767157307764609593111186249949546161219094094592654773180599687912503152135379287295149766029792115163411843563236063692083157713540857190831538127088974503174200586004758054979499215967270571947536747268892087788668714567833349511720355827928642302366600225106747576396402285420570113652974281025352986455580729791857567329116090210022649469842354643846346355313413052864342027491780147668002375855000886775240605615865267375078330068803658099901409815496233192816727965167131078552540018674691151011573536987953442583287466625072738788234713691521499241957238694169177803971793642853250548699884060217257537360129583255957972237039097739091728638025868266767966835670147050482209445615305849787895714812564137769813515439796780750502764271417809031126182080138078000781649011678968109588554389780000442351743847907302670362232982521940949887469774792464073246567541607708880763873188239184893966696953342110148546843727482284168568164592314229058669907460484101416670028005841815364726036177634292644162067518287266517983125485561662362591028781749627913830961134966319400177769446392149927453023662647807316842243621755084290590616389060372158093465128667668604236454503711708577364536047495606406623250136877504976370927279553024363244932772003528636143498551355266355779990150757647521485590334586922192146698701170714589328632549758205028463395178161839371290312886033501192088568816590408878332148698689561611674479293629886653179825347924837850757708360031927344283254956769909807824201775560706285394650126758993839434877515595628800987149600684889065832057726926918696888484690189495394480839779789087039133391421863001611292771298553107031643975291118372363297819930836093202313829167348572263920392620931197582674Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol3466934700347313475934790348203485134881349123494334973350043503435065350963512535156351863521735247352783530935339353703540035431354623549035521355513558235612356433567435704357353576535796358273585535886359163594735977360083603936069361003613036161361923622036251362813631236342363733640436434364653649536526365573658636617366473667836708367393677036800368313686136892369233695136982370123704337073371043713537165371963722637257372883731637347373773740837438374693750037530375613759137622376533768137712377423777337803378343786537895379263795637987380183804738078381083813938169382003823138261382923832238353383843841238443384733850438534385653859638626386573868738718387493877738808388383886938899389303896138991390223905239083391143914239173392033923439264392953932639356393873941739448394793950839539395693960039630396613969239722397533978339814398453987339904399343996539995400264005740087401184014840179402104023840269402994033040360403914042240452404834051340544405754060340634406644069540725407564078740817408484087840909409404096941000410304106141091411224115341183412144124441275413064133441365413954142641456414874151841548415794160941640416714169941730417604179141821418524188341913419444197442005420364206442095421254215642186422174224842278423094233942370424014243042461424914252242552425834261411018462101362837934799991085448004538323111929118787182351207652511407176612019125390204581117484546864171731138109225682759411830542971141973121282349239248191253561020678453113125047134317747138373303172500361331459748985528213803323105317908144737919185125151412776697511663614531058211188315137577152931888721415729437616425115318985323494783165982278309038621803231471549395617904050860922647176145960706541091733942085083835175478753683071291781330453112814217978309170999982178327747582607391891163979836075817798727619506824189722689263713871946922853862876201326619703110722104247709741140121084225371972662212855164715988862206722706401835322669441690595415238021656835493992409319476336215824715883382021251271921183062991962754716579502454626218979196217438257775040245115282671023723013445526347004714041855255795955077359592495813923487551426251544884444464257360170460037412686083540701638126872519870418432268999567132061262705837055829019925763194593147083265313757663309472813103200541033527419823254249551277010409615451362676529979786414226160056073535038263894797652999412548730262056363225800821930099183269664772640791342707517913393063628270088014648396313954310549318153084717264241954307157328397901933299419518611299136098849970540673374596302831080134120070774442652341385979728731753396520803376895345726418142448733666639557515736237492416134674511343543009042022533332642022114852532434638542450811315841698852292073039414153229354430189376200790483316853805490444573357411439819244935075011608249249360984302969547423856135399925536837040956933772726354401578979658723774972210786050840695295174214756416994515826385033964521149932298139713282327467319427164404503527264170307833354900940084206535718971410646261433761244217189272270611745540752200966779456751429607118284972013362131246351043335537376455539648008468581965376016632204691248114327415071871465643724717227545473136402847931445785433903947054319063502047815646472216278699063479607213661057945178227960527846352191618525558194503566656014366215072099607706301949091279752110903474678311307085914813726995314497449313263458100307501108068680081651265560301474542535683580046564785086503081795148954583264570743744560523185534007515884008061665413858330466678433295622111342960827866909373871666130868051874230552771652422845510701696432876208278608866200600401871004659472507041330465932874203479539697809804734914257004524104654454705380793625480346959025919015347688813432197833827357071618484301576055052128972793782966226803700147344207548094170970392760506973007753442576737939978018203711477063777852829118623665779019542537975168470879331063159292969340707904458913438647549674528465612369693250484829245469892748812978175263532882565884241246206833661953571965958747281414049210197798367540078193102939236528189951046893064884057110450275014424337105381618272956461035480834966252810098081586249346103444040903827289943765319962205110100628217884611012827363731696104489043958535041025208883265320710924810397674245105958862062210699973907685915891710079521394402054104113593977485571045082886122542310633415292259892107173767394075751033610606190315107818092913984761091714256162410911487792520462763107169501545471921136118889613764111388603444944021115574053252049810939037910685213114249390356399391083133347816519510328737942111374108260563452860941083193489388158411210933463883606105110348877333521050495950956824310526830835267162104791863989067431062821090868559510400777823450634102113172546186561060003146855022697107312284647369906353909062158296792111202812716948336196247350049135711396291183690494702807101941926996967356997999572105795140647295866841122666457979433169013834081008090404106009810012515188045546101181772608249919920326422666829806500597293140997560167322182769688378268213806910137938396615464102906867144372699764410705174233597071424363883869524017194325919595544845253305679622646217934274796239452751736962965375063369090821012347317827440610770514966463814109420569583346841208711039285353212664209478560323141025217416688541386837757319192514666752333325439139155359455648431403916156690523913166501323067976136168615008235161328539985817047137418197702979161294379107077740413338408429152194132004225939526151384230634300615614456614056202426138838285506816291402147282693308713284924859334293145344916066784191457470854495409713932867530051409140675983590670087030 Portfolio34669347003473134759347903482034851348813491234943349733500435034350653509635125351563518635217352473527835309353393537035400354313546235490355213555135582356123564335674357043573535765357963582735855358863591635947359773600836039360693610036130361613619236220362513628136312363423637336404364343646536495365263655736586366173664736678367083673936770368003683136861368923692336951369823701237043370733710437135371653719637226372573728837316373473737737408374383746937500375303756137591376223765337681377123774237773378033783437865378953792637956379873801838047380783810838139381693820038231382613829238322383533838438412384433847338504385343856538596386263865738687387183874938777388083883838869388993893038961389913902239052390833911439142391733920339234392643929539326393563938739417394483947939508395393956939600396303966139692397223975339783398143984539873399043993439965399954002640057400874011840148401794021040238402694029940330403604039140422404524048340513405444057540603406344066440695407254075640787408174084840878409094094040969410004103041061410914112241153411834121441244412754130641334413654139541426414564148741518415484157941609416404167141699417304176041791418214185241883419134194441974420054203642064420954212542156421864221742248422784230942339423704240142430424614249142522425524258342614110078103541372000000021062023852604000210889992584601421120689136881332111377236117619285117413076733831011176009376566051512082320334839614120049934846966412403559268388566126491497419026611291098714156004612965213287554598130611558658825031325837931945732713416154033358869134443279568289231295764328479171613194768156903405137291562672579911392685611750650514660801434899098144951343786847381495028159817543915011577752727958145477200001686651505543542817455115872945571924428164681810308715961742992280307449816730982898671209175273776846479616971759812044621737908204753369217671050625932256178495282372541731885088677136413319576645912061652197450050669053811940144197874122719861256153637394196507268384088361731032527195434318110062299518634192328861620887912017529758403114221143711868064639216575040664586120994784442024979216792144148349932250952832692317222043581090555859229385504828324252250271802365861223339476384811732200563860819549723075112644553797236473754381387292499054636302501240933857485924112438732505472523725901777940623676250444290907890332446339833588272725197300285959208247815448312408832616683318730725251594101095959212482982183716021323141393952233318235880228555114212425792270460794622521055438958015213499605561321992265230815005626422722530305321442234760855528363822139775795719498212453288535724291979002382710271820251131382274212213021651010142452150240545296378212551277902546952102982343567799521685953926871147210353753090650122094492319523603419901866020113279187236755517225721886223075080532174890603521466931840024039649353719178570565265214185399241654418831819508157596466418045881907041754181162608464792171923765739287628220184150136605794204061757881084562057758766472856520970619589124877210356285098511682194226409862575222055712678092612311599968978943923513594884453819238521906507899532373292969753600323179952435583413233816180217729872377442920453877423161048931061674233509695322963823689558590514674240922810865534222497887703053858725745728555376122252797308685238152577521359354688225367965218768842250052033161404525685344846339473258985332085640922665736023157502266626917036213352695064877402044326435891382436654272474732478774582751177373838187328392150498010094284290602936575092881569551365125429245049376804655284174144794410832845719885971230528565336215379213292280520155760162969570084782523330613298004023028312929132197123393165904030438297532061110116248637318495067894813923221577611756043133327220393616264342170571781258163383724784344861933130049363520544334116547831104653462783901721568535441593234120257342436673828069883403820537851014532244391955062661317994193460827963158000335259482332881099490721728333512992134390531136772945666698307755863794969643087406825591135628209636165426204240120423040107862289788354110468723580240470629605220970433450270052049942711118155221782691248341517234926325113363272472599571818148224770502510474208263508605706424652712030569930522328077652490490692276396411116390392876181054077158229224875690478003284767188728017652906333928158148230449660565312922308759558132273032895855895722588628037676782386103296330205913038692879144280651083930812602091527901317154113328096713157586352294531133160971871797167336617025470612983457393468608665834663826916270479356760106622255753536206176839798834866992903640415344276687930545493281301112666029307818857379200183334909500846254433028943696381301332304202529292253464603615570400835830930592229087363970592955863073625875047026307934344288445433189354570433910652223586479939006247636531884658717635373355861212094233696969737722156937261757986501623772380378553423839183714992034413394971847119706884050436292212594412374918910164241575639324522751408397505084786964256727195498734241656332335150612431601259324495514466641432749203745510609558281629463298005303307034516692253701940346969082746246484714286835240759647345582686322949482782906652435174921971733321576948466655658017572499836619801135348879023050353023498272760975298735077399434338294505505887682720534974683440685653519854419551650751553962786937202520179484520196315239767947571937951501679156684581521506003140588084942833897766493448207459004916604512782741435297945132955241767331450441551160847569481565488932611714814691758348251651040547330249817514590798183578625200969197241429152165721048331535398108814081346541106427523514154245919359232282

Performance Stats

Performance stats (2)

Correlations

Annual Returns

Calendar Year Returns

MLM Index 3X1995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420150218999999999999970311015404060000000000000370000000000000007E-202110000000000000240000000000000001E-30151022600000000000001014599999999999999005-008-90000000000000011E-30379-96999999999999989E-299000000000000005E-2013400000000000001-017199999999999999-27999999999999997E-2025390999999999999998E-2Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015031303639999999999999901749999999999999902690000000000000252999999999999999E-297000000000000003E-2008013300000000000001031700573999999999999996E-2025011203439999999999999712E-271999999999999995E-2-72999999999999995E-2-01189999999999999901102310000000000000142000000000000003E-27030 Portfolio1995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420150265000000000000010145999999999999990218999999999999970196999999999999980182-55999999999999994E-2-88000000000000009E-2-0138000000000000010247011469000000000000006E-2015174999999999999997E-2-03070238999999999999990135000000000000012E-301350000000000000102280000000000000190999999999999998E-2-2E-3

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 19

The Credit Suisse MF Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLM 3x Index Correlations

bull Both MLM and Credit Suisse exhibit similar negative correlations with US equities

bull MLM and Credit Suisse indices are highly correlated with one another

Correlations ndash various periods ending 93016

SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM 7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099MLM Index 3X -054 -056 MLM Index 3X -023 -026

Credit Suisse Index -059 -055 080 Credit Suisse Index -021 -020 082

SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM 7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099MLM Index 3X -031 -033 MLM Index 3X -036 -036

Credit Suisse Index -027 -027 076 Credit Suisse Index -021 -021 066

1 Year Correlation 3 Year Correlation

10 Year Correlation5 Year Correlation

SampP 500 7030 MLM 7030 Portfolio 098MLM Index 3X -027 -026

Credit Suisse Index -018 -016 066

20 Year Correlation

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 20

Systematic Trend Following modeled with the MLM 3X IndexTM in the AL study Long history calculated back to pre-1970 PCA used data going back to 1970 Simple captures the beta captures big down markets reasonable for modeling However has only one lookback period (12 months) slow to respond to trends Investible but not inclusive of the full opportunity set (no equities)

Benchmark recommendation Credit Suisse Managed Futures Liquid IndexTM15 vol Diversified across 18 deep and liquid futures contracts in major markets Diversified across 16 lookback horizons from trading 30 days to 12 months Utilizes a moving average crossover method to determine the signal Equally risk weighted over 288 potentially different signals (long or short) Most comparable to the strategies that will be sourced

Recommended RISIC Mandate Benchmark

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 21

Due Diligence Plan Update Relating To STF and Platform Manager

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 22

Due Diligence Process Outline Platform Manager

bull Provide a short list of platform implementation platform managers

Draft DDQ prepared to be issued

bull Send DDQ to short list platform managers

bull Conduct a review of platform managers DDQ responses - rate proposals

PCA and Rhode Island investment staff

bull Conduct onsite due diligence at platform managers offices in NYC

PCA and Rhode Island investment staff

bull Platform manager recommendation

PCA memo to SIC SIC interview recommended platform manager

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 23

Due Diligence Process Outline STF Managers

bull Provide a short list of systematic trend following managers

bull Draft DDQ prepared to be issued

bull Send a DDQ to short list systematic trend following managers

bull Conduct a review of STF managers DDQ responses - rate proposals

bull PCA and Rhode Island investment staff

bull Systematic trend following managers recommendation

bull PCA memo to SIC

bull SIC interview recommended systematic trend following managers

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 24

Other Implementation Crisis Risk OffsetSM Class Managers

Other bull Platform manager to conduct operational due diligence at recommended STF

Managerrsquos office

bull STF Managers hired contracting other administration 1Q 2017

bull Fund long-duration Fixed Income and systematic trend following accounts pari passu

bull Primary source of funds ndash Equity HF portfolio redemptions

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 25

Appendix

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 26

Model Output Focus Portfolio Comparison of Trend IndicesFocus Portfolio

Line Strategic Class Trend

MLM 3x Index

TrendCS MF Index

1 US Equity 200 2002 Non-US Equity 200 2003 Private Growth 150 1504 Income Class 60 605 Crisis Risk Offset 80 806 Inflation Protection 100 1007 IG Fixed Income 115 1158 Absolute Return 65 659 Cash 30 30

10 Total 1000 1000

Asset Only Statistics11 Median Scenario Comp Return (22-year period) 73 7312 Average Scenario Standard Deviation (22-year period) 118 12113 Sharpe Ratio (22-year period) 041 04014 Sortino Ratio (22-year period) 074 074

15 Best Year Worst Year 298 -208

306 -210

16 Average 2-year Loss of Worst 10 -160 -164AssetLiability Statistics

17 Percent of Scenarios lt50 [during first 5-years] 75 7918 Median Funded Ratio [end of 5-years] 600 59919 Average Funded Ratio of Worst 10 [end of 5-years] 477 47620 Median Funded Ratio [end of 22-years] 994 99121 Average Funded Ratio of Worst 10 [end of 22-years] 671 66522 Median Avg Ann Employer Cntrbs Rate [during 22-yrs] 206 20623 Average of Yrs w Employer Cntrbs Rate gt30 [during 22-yrs] 44 47

bull For modeling purposes both indices have same volatility assumptions

bull Modeling the Focus Portfolio with the CS MF Index results in the same long-term return (line 11) and slightly higher risk (line 12)

bull Portfolio results are similar regardless of the trend following index used in modeling the total portfolio

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 27

Comparing Modeling of MLM 3x and CS MF IndexMLM 3x Index Credits Suisse MF Index

1970 1607 9491971 648 -5801972 278 12791973 9190 63231974 1458 51501975 -620 -20551976 851 14651977 374 15591978 -178 4531979 2107 31971980 -568 4861981 2839 18891982 1278 13801983 -1005 -11941984 1281 0881985 239 5561986 456 2281987 643 10851988 188 -10381989 809 0551990 657 3771991 -604 -7281992 -557 -12351993 481 14301994 549 -7851995 384 14781996 409 21071997 077 0061998 992 10741999 -564 -12982000 3782 0122001 043 0492002 -972 11652003 1191 39572004 992 0172005 456 1152006 -1329 24292007 -461 4192008 4324 42422009 -811 -3752010 1370 5092011 1740 -16162012 -1910 -22872013 -127 10762014 2995 28432015 1359 086

-4000

-2000

000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Annual Modeled Returns

$0

$500

$1000

$1500

$2000

$2500

Growth of $100

MLM 3x Credit Suisse Managed Futures

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 28

The Credit Suisse Managed Futures Indextrade is a systematic trend following strategy that trades a total of 18 futures contracts providing liquid and diversified exposure to market trends across asset classes geographies and time horizons The strategy tracks 16 time horizon signals to identify trends across various horizons ranging from shorter-term moving average (60 trading days) to longer-term moving average (360 trading days) The average length of moving average signal utilized is a 210 trading days moving average

bull Shortest signal compares the 60 (trading) day MA (moving average) versus 5 day MA

bull Longest signal compares the 360 (trading) day MA (moving average) versus 5 day MA

bull For each of the 18 different futures contracts (markets) total return index

- If average price in most recent 5 days is gt average price over 60 days =gt Buy the market (go long)

- If average price in most recent 5 days is lt average price over 60 days=gt Sell the market (go short)

bull Signals are equally weighted resulting in a portfolio of long and short exposures When signals align (strong trends) the index is more long or more short

Recommended Benchmark Index

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 29

The Credit Suisse Managed Futures Indextrade Markets Traded

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 30

bull Diversifies and balances risk across the four major futures market typesbull Rebalancing incorporates recent trailing volatility of each instrument traded

The Credit Suisse Managed Futures Indextrade Risk Allocation

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 31

Instruments Forwards

bull Agreement to buysell an asset at a future time for a specified price Long position = agree to buy at the future date Short position = agree to sell at the future date

bull Over-the-counter instrument (ie customized have counterparty risk)

bull Different than an option in that both buyer and seller have obligations

bull Essentially a contract that states Asset type and amount Future date of trade Future price of trade Settlement options (ie cash payment or delivery of asset)

bull Currency forwards can be more liquid than currency futures

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 32

Instruments Futures

bull Futures = analogous to forwards but exchange tradedstandardized Exchanges (eg CME Group) provide numerous services

o Guarantee contracts will be honored backed by exchange with is backed by all of the exchange members (de minimis counterparty risk)

o Facilitate transactionso Set margin requirementso Organize daily settlementmarking to marketo Arrange settlementdelivery procedures

bull Extremely liquid instruments

bull Vast majority of futures contracts do not lead to delivery

bull Regulated by the US Government Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 33

Futures Transaction Example

bull November crude oil contract (one contract = 1000 barrels of oil)

bull ldquoPricerdquo of contract = delivery price (ie futures are free) 1000 barrels $43 = $43000 of exposure (ie notional value)

o Longbuy position = agree to buy 1000 barrels in November $43barrelo Shortsell position = agree to sell 1000 barrels in November $43barrel

Initial margin = $3190 (ie money that must be deposited to trade)o Typically equal to roughly one-day maximum price fluctuationo Margin = embedded leverageo Exchanges require daily settlementmark to market

bull At contract expiration (or anytime while contract is traded) | longbuy ldquoSpotrdquo price = $50

o Gain = ($50-$43) x 1000 = $7000

ldquoSpotrdquo price = $40o Loss = ($40-$43) x 1000 = ($3000)

Gainslosses for shortsell positionare the opposite

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 34

Leverage in Trend Following Strategies

bull Futures contain embedded leverage

bull Trend Following strategies leverage asymp 0x-7x Averagefull-cycle leverage asymp 3x

bull Without leverage (ie 1x) strategy volatility may be asymp 6 (ie bond-like)

bull Leveragerisk oversight is key component of strategy selection

bull Leverage protections Futures have daily price limits and daily settlement

o Price limit = maximum change in contract priceo Exchanges will close out positions if failed settlement

Long and short positions partially offset leverage risks

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 35

CROSM Implementation Considerations (LongShort aspects)bull Long position ndash give up cash to buy a security (traditional)

bull Short position ndash sell an un-owned security receive cash liable for securityrsquos position

bull Because of the liability short positions require collateral as security collateral levels based on potential security movements not total value of positions

bull Minimum collateral requirements allow managers to apply leverage

bull Unlike typical leveraged situations collateral requirements re-set every day

bull Longshort portfolios contain many offsetting long and short positions itrsquos the net position that matters

bull Longshort portfolios utilize ldquoprimary brokersrdquo to effect these types of trades

bull In total across entire CROSM class hundreds of netted ls positions

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 36

DISCLOSURES This document is provided for informational purposes only It does not constitute an offer of securities of any of the issuers that may be described herein Informationcontained herein may have been provided by third parties including investment firms providing information on returns and assets under management and may not have beenindependently verified The past performance information contained in this report is not necessarily indicative of future results and there is no assurance that the investment in question willachieve comparable results or that the Firm will be able to implement its investment strategy or achieve its investment objectives The actual realized value of currently unrealizedinvestments (if any) will depend on a variety of factors including future operating results the value of the assets and market conditions at the time of disposition any related transactioncosts and the timing and manner of sale all of which may differ from the assumptions and circumstances on which any current unrealized valuations are based

Neither PCA nor PCArsquos officers employees or agents make any representation or warranty express or implied in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained inthis document or any oral information provided in connection herewith or any data subsequently generated herefrom and accept no responsibility obligation or liability (whether direct orindirect in contract tort or otherwise) in relation to any of such information PCA and PCArsquos officers employees and agents expressly disclaim any and all liability that may be based on thisdocument and any errors therein or omissions therefrom Neither PCA nor any of PCArsquos officers employees or agents make any representation of warranty express or implied that anytransaction has been or may be effected on the terms or in the manner stated in this document or as to the achievement or reasonableness of future projections management targetsestimates prospects or returns if any Any views or terms contained herein are preliminary only and are based on financial economic market and other conditions prevailing as of thedate of this document and are therefore subject to change

The information contained in this report may include forward-looking statements Forward-looking statements include a number of risks uncertainties and other factors beyond the control ofthe Firm which may result in material differences in actual results performance or other expectations The opinions estimates and analyses reflect PCArsquos current judgment which maychange in the future

Any tables graphs or charts relating to past performance included in this report are intended only to illustrate investment performance for the historical periods shown Such tables graphsand charts are not intended to predict future performance and should not be used as the basis for an investment decision

All trademarks or product names mentioned herein are the property of their respective owners Indices are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index The index dataprovided is on an ldquoas isrdquo basis In no event shall the index providers or its affiliates have any liability of any kind in connection with the index data or the portfolio described herein Copyingor redistributing the index data is strictly prohibited

The Russell indices are either registered trademarks or trade names of Frank Russell Company in the US andor other countries

The MSCI indices are trademarks and service marks of MSCI or its subsidiaries

Standard and Poorrsquos (SampP) is a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc SampP indices including the SampP 500 are a registered trademark of The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc

CBOE not SampP calculates and disseminates the BXM Index The CBOE has a business relationship with Standard amp Poors on the BXM CBOE and Chicago Board Options Exchange areregistered trademarks of the CBOE and SPX and CBOE SampP 500 BuyWrite Index BXM are servicemarks of the CBOE The methodology of the CBOE SampP 500 BuyWrite Index is owned by CBOEand may be covered by one or more patents or pending patent applications

The Barclays Capital indices (formerly known as the Lehman indices) are trademarks of Barclays Capital Inc

The Citigroup indices are trademarks of Citicorp or its affiliates

The Merrill Lynch indices are trademarks of Merrill Lynch amp Co or its affiliates

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MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15x 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol 7030 Portfolio
1995 0219 0228 0265 1995 0219 0313 0265
1996 0311 0264 0146 1996 0311 0364 0146
1997 0154 014 0219 1997 0154 0175 0219
1998 0406 0209 0197 1998 0406 0269 0197
1999 007 0066 0182 1999 007 0053 0182
2000 0211 0087 -0056 2000 0211 0097 -0056
2001 0004 007 -0088 2001 0004 008 -0088
2002 0151 0112 -0138 2002 0151 0133 -0138
2003 0226 0213 0247 2003 0226 0317 0247
2004 0146 0042 0114 2004 0146 005 0114
2005 005 0063 0069 2005 005 0074 0069
2006 -008 0188 0151 2006 -008 025 0151
2007 -0009 0095 0075 2007 -0009 0112 0075
2008 0379 023 -0307 2008 0379 0344 -0307
2009 -0097 0009 0239 2009 -0097 0012 0239
2010 0099 005 0135 2010 0099 0072 0135
2011 0134 -0048 0002 2011 0134 -0073 0002
2012 -0172 -008 0135 2012 -0172 -0119 0135
2013 -0028 0075 0228 2013 -0028 011 0228
2014 0253 0158 0091 2014 0253 0231 0091
2015 0091 0036 -0002 2015 0091 0042 -0002
Return 110 101 80 Return 110 131 80
StDev 153 93 146 StDev 153 134 146
Corr to 7030 -023 005 100 Corr to 7030 -023 004 100
1 Year Correlation 3 Year Correlation
SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM
7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099
MLM Index 3X -054 -056 MLM Index 3X -023 -026
Credit Suisse Index -059 -055 080 Credit Suisse Index -021 -020 082
5 Year Correlation 10 Year Correlation
SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM
7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099
MLM Index 3X -031 -033 MLM Index 3X -036 -036
Credit Suisse Index -027 -027 076 Credit Suisse Index -021 -021 066
20 Year Correlation
SampP 500 7030 MLM
7030 Portfolio 098
MLM Index 3X -027 -026
Credit Suisse Index -018 -016 066
Correlation to date Correlation to date
SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
SampP 500 Index 1 099 -054 -059 SampP 500 Index 1 099 -023 -021
7030 Portfolio 099 1 -056 -055 7030 Portfolio 099 1 -026 -02
MLM Index 3X -054 -056 1 08 MLM Index 3X -023 -026 1 082
Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -059 -055 08 1 Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -021 -02 082 1
Correlation to date Correlation to date
SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
5 5 5 5 10 Years 10 Years 10 Years 10 Years
SampP 500 Index 1 099 -031 -027 SampP 500 Index 1 099 -036 -021
7030 Portfolio 099 1 -033 -027 7030 Portfolio 099 1 -036 -021
MLM Index 3X -031 -033 1 076 MLM Index 3X -036 -036 1 066
Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -027 -027 076 1 Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -021 -021 066 1
Correlation to date
SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
5 5 5 5
SampP 500 Index 1 098 -027 -018
7030 Portfolio 098 1 -026 -016
MLM Index 3X -027 -026 1 066
Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -018 -016 066 1
MLM 3x Credit Suisse 15 Vol 7030 SampP 500
Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio
Periods Ending 9302016
1 Year 85 124 07 24 162 01 125 105 12 154 125 12
3 Years 139 145 10 130 156 08 79 90 09 112 108 10
5 Years 33 129 03 46 138 03 120 92 13 164 111 15 SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
10 Years 58 163 03 79 144 05 62 124 04 72 153 04 Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date
20 Years 98 141 05 117 147 06 71 121 04 79 154 04 Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g) Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g) Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g) Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g)
1 Year 1543 1246 122 1252 1052 116 846 1244 066 24 162 01
Statistical Measures 3 Years 1116 1083 102 792 897 087 1392 1446 095 130 156 08
Largest Drawdown - period Mar-09 - May-09 Mar-11 - Nov-12 Nov-07 - Feb-09 Nov-07 - Feb-09 5 Years 1637 1112 146 12 915 13 329 1288 025 46 138 03
Largest Drawdown - -2509 -277 -4216 -5095 10 Years 724 1525 041 621 1239 043 58 1627 03 79 144 05
Largest Drawdown - of months 3 21 16 16 20 Years 791 1535 036 711 1212 039 977 1408 053 117 147 06
Recovery Period Jun-09 - Jul-11 Dec-12 - Nov-14 Mar-09 - Apr-11 Mar-09 - Mar-12
Recovery Duration 26 24 26 37 00237 01617
01298 0156
Crisis Period Returns 00464 01383
LTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98) 121 143 -88 -100 00787 01439
Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02) 113 127 -145 -206 01172 01466
Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09) 326 277 -309 -388
MLM Credit Suisse 7030
Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio
Periods Ending 9302016
1 Year 85 124 07 14 90 01 125 105 12
3 Years 139 145 10 90 103 09 79 90 09
5 Years 33 129 03 35 92 04 120 92 13
10 Years 58 163 03 58 97 05 62 124 04
20 Years 98 141 05 91 100 07 71 121 04
Statistical Measures
Largest Drawdown - period Mar-09 - May-09 Mar-11 - Nov-12 Nov-07 - Feb-09
Largest Drawdown - -2509 -1486 -4216
Largest Drawdown - of months 3 21 16
Recovery Period Jun-09 - Jul-11 Dec-12 - Nov-14 Mar-09 - Apr-11
Recovery Duration 26 24 26
Full - history semi-deviation 83 54 83
Full - history skewness 03 02 -08
Full- history kurtosis 47 -01 15
Crisis Period Returns
LTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98) 121 104 -88
Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02) 113 157 -145
Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09) 326 183 -309
SampP 500 Index MLM Index 3X woInt Credit Suisse Index 7030 Portfolio
Return Return Return Return
Total Total Total Total
Jan-73 -149 NA NA NA
Feb-73 -352 NA NA NA
Mar-73 009 NA NA NA
Apr-73 -384 NA NA NA
May-73 -164 NA NA NA
Jun-73 -04 NA NA NA
Jul-73 406 NA NA NA
Aug-73 -342 NA NA NA
Sep-73 427 NA NA NA
Oct-73 013 NA NA NA
Nov-73 -1112 NA NA NA
Dec-73 196 NA NA NA
Jan-74 -071 NA NA NA
Feb-74 -005 NA NA NA
Mar-74 -202 NA NA NA
Apr-74 -359 NA NA NA
May-74 -302 NA NA NA
Jun-74 -112 NA NA NA
Jul-74 -742 NA NA NA
Aug-74 -864 NA NA NA
Sep-74 -115 NA NA NA
Oct-74 168 NA NA NA
Nov-74 -49 NA NA NA
Dec-74 -158 NA NA NA
Jan-75 1273 NA NA NA
Feb-75 639 NA NA NA
Mar-75 255 NA NA NA
Apr-75 509 NA NA NA
May-75 476 NA NA NA
Jun-75 477 NA NA NA
Jul-75 -644 NA NA NA
Aug-75 -176 NA NA NA
Sep-75 -311 NA NA NA
Oct-75 654 NA NA NA
Nov-75 281 NA NA NA
Dec-75 -082 NA NA NA
Jan-76 1217 NA NA NA
Feb-76 -084 NA NA NA
Mar-76 338 NA NA NA
Apr-76 -08 NA NA NA
May-76 -112 NA NA NA
Jun-76 441 NA NA NA
Jul-76 -05 NA NA NA
Aug-76 -02 NA NA NA
Sep-76 258 NA NA NA
Oct-76 -191 NA NA NA
Nov-76 -045 NA NA NA
Dec-76 558 NA NA NA
Jan-77 -473 NA NA NA
Feb-77 -182 NA NA NA
Mar-77 -104 NA NA NA
Apr-77 038 NA NA NA
May-77 -198 NA NA NA
Jun-77 493 NA NA NA
Jul-77 -124 NA NA NA
Aug-77 -172 NA NA NA
Sep-77 015 NA NA NA
Oct-77 -394 NA NA NA
Nov-77 312 NA NA NA
Dec-77 071 NA NA NA
Jan-78 -573 NA NA NA
Feb-78 -202 NA NA NA
Mar-78 297 NA NA NA
Apr-78 901 NA NA NA
May-78 086 NA NA NA
Jun-78 -132 NA NA NA
Jul-78 584 NA NA NA
Aug-78 302 NA NA NA
Sep-78 -031 NA NA NA
Oct-78 -874 NA NA NA
Nov-78 213 NA NA NA
Dec-78 194 NA NA NA
Jan-79 443 NA NA NA
Feb-79 -321 NA NA NA
Mar-79 598 NA NA NA
Apr-79 061 NA NA NA
May-79 -218 NA NA NA
Jun-79 434 NA NA NA
Jul-79 133 NA NA NA
Aug-79 576 NA NA NA
Sep-79 044 NA NA NA
Oct-79 -639 NA NA NA
Nov-79 472 NA NA NA
Dec-79 22 NA NA NA
Jan-80 621 NA NA NA
Feb-80 -001 NA NA NA
Mar-80 -975 NA NA NA
Apr-80 462 NA NA NA
May-80 515 NA NA NA
Jun-80 316 NA NA NA
Jul-80 696 NA NA NA
Aug-80 101 NA NA NA
Sep-80 294 NA NA NA
Oct-80 202 NA NA NA
Nov-80 1065 NA NA NA
Dec-80 -301 NA NA NA
Jan-81 -42 NA NA NA
Feb-81 172 NA NA NA
Mar-81 399 NA NA NA
Apr-81 -194 NA NA NA
May-81 025 NA NA NA
Jun-81 -062 NA NA NA
Jul-81 021 NA NA NA
Aug-81 -578 NA NA NA
Sep-81 -492 NA NA NA
Oct-81 54 NA NA NA
Nov-81 412 NA NA NA
Dec-81 -256 NA NA NA
Jan-82 -13 NA NA NA
Feb-82 -559 NA NA NA
Mar-82 -052 NA NA NA
Apr-82 452 NA NA NA
May-82 -341 NA NA NA
Jun-82 -15 NA NA NA
Jul-82 -177 NA NA NA
Aug-82 1214 NA NA NA
Sep-82 124 NA NA NA
Oct-82 1151 NA NA NA
Nov-82 404 NA NA NA
Dec-82 193 NA NA NA
Jan-83 372 NA NA NA
Feb-83 229 NA NA NA
Mar-83 369 NA NA NA
Apr-83 788 NA NA NA
May-83 -087 NA NA NA
Jun-83 389 NA NA NA
Jul-83 -295 NA NA NA
Aug-83 15 NA NA NA
Sep-83 138 NA NA NA
Oct-83 -116 NA NA NA
Nov-83 211 NA NA NA
Dec-83 -052 NA NA NA
Jan-84 -056 NA NA NA
Feb-84 -352 NA NA NA
Mar-84 173 NA NA NA
Apr-84 092 NA NA NA
May-84 -556 NA NA NA
Jun-84 214 NA NA NA
Jul-84 -124 NA NA NA
Aug-84 1104 NA NA NA
Sep-84 002 NA NA NA
Oct-84 038 NA NA NA
Nov-84 -112 NA NA NA
Dec-84 264 NA NA NA
Jan-85 779 NA NA NA
Feb-85 123 NA NA NA
Mar-85 006 NA NA NA
Apr-85 -009 NA NA NA
May-85 578 NA NA NA
Jun-85 157 NA NA NA
Jul-85 -014 NA NA NA
Aug-85 -086 NA NA NA
Sep-85 -313 NA NA NA
Oct-85 462 NA NA NA
Nov-85 686 NA NA NA
Dec-85 484 NA NA NA
Jan-86 056 NA NA NA
Feb-86 747 NA NA NA
Mar-86 558 NA NA NA
Apr-86 -113 NA NA NA
May-86 532 NA NA NA
Jun-86 169 NA NA NA
Jul-86 -559 NA NA NA
Aug-86 741 NA NA NA
Sep-86 -827 NA NA NA
Oct-86 577 NA NA NA
Nov-86 243 NA NA NA
Dec-86 -255 NA NA NA
Jan-87 1347 NA NA NA
Feb-87 395 NA NA NA
Mar-87 289 NA NA NA
Apr-87 -089 NA NA NA
May-87 087 NA NA NA
Jun-87 505 NA NA NA
Jul-87 507 NA NA NA
Aug-87 373 NA NA NA
Sep-87 -219 NA NA NA
Oct-87 -2153 NA NA NA
Nov-87 -824 NA NA NA
Dec-87 761 NA NA NA
Jan-88 421 NA NA 349
Feb-88 466 NA NA 436
Mar-88 -309 NA NA 036
Apr-88 11 NA NA 066
May-88 086 NA NA -09
Jun-88 458 NA NA 252
Jul-88 -038 NA NA 02
Aug-88 -34 NA NA -286
Sep-88 425 NA NA 359
Oct-88 282 NA NA 344
Nov-88 -143 NA NA 034
Dec-88 174 NA NA 116
Jan-89 731 NA NA 398
Feb-89 -248 NA NA -089
Mar-89 232 NA NA 07
Apr-89 52 NA NA 323
May-89 405 NA NA 14
Jun-89 -057 NA NA 004
Jul-89 903 NA NA 742
Aug-89 195 NA NA -04
Sep-89 -041 NA NA 113
Oct-89 -232 NA NA -171
Nov-89 204 NA NA 23
Dec-89 24 NA NA 194
Jan-90 -671 NA NA -478
Feb-90 13 NA NA -08
Mar-90 264 NA NA -117
Apr-90 -249 NA NA -177
May-90 975 NA NA 786
Jun-90 -067 NA NA -001
Jul-90 -032 NA NA 019
Aug-90 -904 NA NA -722
Sep-90 -487 NA NA -53
Oct-90 -043 NA NA 295
Nov-90 646 NA NA 26
Dec-90 279 NA NA 235
Jan-91 435 NA NA 348
Feb-91 715 NA NA 62
Mar-91 242 NA NA 049
Apr-91 024 NA NA 058
May-91 431 NA NA 257
Jun-91 -458 NA NA -379
Jul-91 466 NA NA 377
Aug-91 237 NA NA 166
Sep-91 -167 NA NA 095
Oct-91 134 NA NA 152
Nov-91 -403 NA NA -26
Dec-91 1144 NA NA 76
Jan-92 -186 -50186134107 NA -101
Feb-92 13 -11806985257 NA 03
Mar-92 -194 -34682100213 NA -245
Apr-92 294 04856690806 NA 135
May-92 049 36691977834 NA 196
Jun-92 -149 3995994645 NA -144
Jul-92 409 58382478439 NA 241
Aug-92 -205 21392596519 NA 003
Sep-92 118 -10417441781 NA 069
Oct-92 035 -11426309261 NA -063
Nov-92 34 -24243841368 NA 231
Dec-92 123 03309287484 NA 157
Jan-93 084 12125566229 NA 109
Feb-93 136 59842293696 NA 136
Mar-93 211 -06484088187 NA 282
Apr-93 -242 09183032136 NA 027
May-93 268 -00124707027 NA 196
Jun-93 029 75565231659 NA 064
Jul-93 -04 34694235802 NA 068
Aug-93 379 26998187389 NA 356
Sep-93 -077 -35544940483 NA -032
Oct-93 207 12906000348 NA 154
Nov-93 -095 39231376084 NA -251
Dec-93 121 23140907663 NA 262
Jan-94 34 -16392143954 NA 357
Feb-94 -271 -5375365439 NA -19
Mar-94 -436 -17526970615 NA -389
Apr-94 128 -31042584129 NA 106
May-94 164 21687630069 NA 058
Jun-94 -245 -02802505425 NA -136
Jul-94 328 -09170406074 NA 249
Aug-94 41 03148132864 NA 3
Sep-94 -245 49091708791 NA -203
Oct-94 225 33710507687 NA 14
Nov-94 -364 -02736669026 NA -3 SampP 500 Index MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol 7030 Portfolio
Dec-94 148 11635880505 NA 095 Dec-94 100 100 100 100
Jan-95 259 1488846469 18462 078 Jan-95 103 101 102 101
Feb-95 39 18245801927 -04746 274 Feb-95 107 103 101 104
Mar-95 295 37741988604 70854 257 Mar-95 110 107 109 106
Apr-95 294 20196669281 31179 254 Apr-95 113 109 112 109
May-95 4 4438151788 78944 291 May-95 117 114 121 112
Jun-95 232 15287989065 -04753 152 Jun-95 120 116 120 114
Jul-95 332 -14769041128 -2252 32 Jul-95 124 114 117 117
Aug-95 025 -36439459991 -31269 016 Aug-95 125 110 114 118
Sep-95 422 05926567612 39491 274 Sep-95 130 111 118 121
Oct-95 -036 2635846499 25163 -064 Oct-95 129 114 121 120
Nov-95 439 27162162082 33589 332 Nov-95 135 117 125 124
Dec-95 193 4331305919 47021 198 Dec-95 138 122 131 126
Jan-96 34 19634168588 54269 207 Jan-96 142 124 138 129
Feb-96 093 -13857157749 -37777 042 Feb-96 144 123 133 130
Mar-96 096 3570816298 36706 074 Mar-96 145 127 138 131
Apr-96 147 47035792726 48573 151 Apr-96 147 133 145 133
May-96 258 04897246276 -23907 119 May-96 151 134 141 134
Jun-96 038 04231657395 28546 021 Jun-96 151 134 145 134
Jul-96 -442 -32825387444 -5322 -362 Jul-96 145 130 138 130
Aug-96 211 50232432929 29044 183 Aug-96 148 136 142 132
Sep-96 563 54206924649 82056 405 Sep-96 156 144 153 137
Oct-96 276 51159466491 83507 144 Oct-96 160 151 166 139
Nov-96 756 43728165918 864 527 Nov-96 173 158 180 147
Dec-96 -198 14093703517 -07113 -113 Dec-96 169 160 179 145
Jan-97 625 17011191838 -16167 314 Jan-97 180 162 176 150
Feb-97 078 -17477703643 -15622 041 Feb-97 181 160 173 150
Mar-97 -411 -0910181567 12022 -309 Mar-97 174 158 175 145
Apr-97 597 09232176853 15126 349 Apr-97 184 160 178 151
May-97 609 -06805906276 09263 543 May-97 195 159 180 159
Jun-97 448 14017438969 -08095 375 Jun-97 204 161 178 165
Jul-97 796 41579104051 60499 584 Jul-97 220 167 189 174
Aug-97 -56 -24491709033 -58848 -401 Aug-97 208 163 178 167
Sep-97 548 23206853381 65934 476 Sep-97 219 167 190 175
Oct-97 -334 3155194786 26194 -317 Oct-97 212 172 195 170
Nov-97 463 1734137994 34076 24 Nov-97 222 175 201 174
Dec-97 172 50839377232 45191 168 Dec-97 226 184 210 177
Jan-98 111 -0540706989 01984 101 Jan-98 228 183 211 178
Feb-98 721 40902523842 09547 561 Feb-98 245 191 213 189
Mar-98 512 4564059454 36725 385 Mar-98 257 200 221 196
Apr-98 101 10197007162 2729 086 Apr-98 260 202 227 197
May-98 -172 66464318242 49967 -174 May-98 255 215 238 194
Jun-98 406 14535097859 12227 237 Jun-98 266 218 241 199
Jul-98 -106 79600070571 25845 -106 143 Jul-98 263 235 247 197
Aug-98 -1446 85969949752 100188 -1191 Aug-98 225 256 272 173
Sep-98 641 -43471273323 13057 462 Sep-98 239 245 275 181
Oct-98 813 -21914686666 -48215 62 Oct-98 259 239 262 192
Nov-98 606 35427775078 -16838 49 Nov-98 274 248 258 202
Dec-98 576 46223079694 36184 48 Dec-98 290 259 267 211
Jan-99 418 11652083769 -13599 243 Jan-99 302 262 263 217
Feb-99 -311 08705260303 -29127 -306 Feb-99 293 264 256 210
Mar-99 4 -66775958823 -24295 326 Mar-99 305 247 250 217
Apr-99 387 22077437514 51823 383 Apr-99 316 252 263 225
May-99 -236 05593377297 -19638 -207 May-99 309 254 257 220
Jun-99 555 0821055256 43706 406 Jun-99 326 256 269 229
Jul-99 -312 -05417097185 00435 -19 Jul-99 316 254 269 225
Aug-99 -049 12651757883 01021 -075 Aug-99 314 258 269 223
Sep-99 -274 24672781685 05889 -147 Sep-99 306 264 271 220
Oct-99 633 -17330628613 -47866 486 Oct-99 325 259 258 231
Nov-99 203 37710155755 29817 248 Nov-99 332 269 265 236
Dec-99 589 30182108515 60293 568 Dec-99 351 277 281 250
Jan-00 -502 24897212667 -25282 -359 Jan-00 334 284 274 241
Feb-00 -189 -05713037029 10256 122 Feb-00 327 283 277 244
Mar-00 978 -24716293218 -3378 621 Mar-00 359 276 268 259
Apr-00 -301 03990582414 -22613 -331 1573 Apr-00 348 277 262 250
May-00 -205 24192880579 0877 -232 May-00 341 283 264 245
Jun-00 247 0878887186 -34187 3 Jun-00 350 286 255 252
Jul-00 -156 24260079771 12301 -165 Jul-00 344 293 258 248
Aug-00 621 75396102385 45179 559 Aug-00 366 315 270 262
Sep-00 -528 09222855204 04031 -385 Sep-00 346 318 271 252
Oct-00 -042 299852918 44133 -131 Oct-00 345 327 283 248
Nov-00 -788 5315579778 110553 -68 Nov-00 318 345 314 231
Dec-00 049 -25942802121 -17463 193 Dec-00 319 336 308 236
1-Jan 355 -00863561154 -04261 284 Jan-01 331 335 307 243
1-Feb -912 16209515233 74179 -716 Feb-01 300 341 330 225
1-Mar -633 48299554873 94097 -52 Mar-01 281 357 361 213
1-Apr 777 -43323517245 -65179 61 Apr-01 303 342 337 227
1-May 067 24991627761 11086 031 May-01 305 350 341 227
1-Jun -243 -01569851257 00543 -165 Jun-01 298 350 341 223
1-Jul -098 -21829671963 -05079 -093 Jul-01 295 342 340 221
1-Aug -626 -26070979092 17884 -404 Aug-01 276 333 346 212
1-Sep -808 10636654952 60561 -685 Sep-01 254 337 367 198
1-Oct 191 09408124501 22528 233 Oct-01 259 340 375 203
1-Nov 767 -16137664028 -837 519 Nov-01 279 334 344 213
1-Dec 088 07970479005 -2992 094 Dec-01 281 337 333 215
2-Jan -146 01132698972 -26759 -115 Jan-02 277 338 324 213
2-Feb -193 -02410246265 -26221 -106 Feb-02 272 337 316 210
2-Mar 376 -64656658879 -37678 312 Mar-02 282 315 304 217
2-Apr -606 01559405489 -06737 -3 Apr-02 265 315 302 210
2-May -074 19425675286 49554 -043 May-02 263 322 317 209
2-Jun -712 46154392532 59609 -498 Jun-02 244 336 336 199
2-Jul -78 -09755577412 44704 -592 Jul-02 225 333 351 187
2-Aug 066 36669673432 29178 074 Aug-02 227 345 361 189
2-Sep -1087 42995914132 68228 -728 Sep-02 202 360 386 175
2-Oct 88 -18586716944 -39428 521 Oct-02 220 354 370 184
2-Nov 589 -06691963741 -43217 423 Nov-02 233 351 354 192
2-Dec -587 10504712371 65168 -333 Dec-02 219 388 377 185
3-Jan -262 79413180181 78029 -186 Jan-03 213 419 407 182
3-Feb -15 5839796145 24675 -082 Feb-03 210 443 417 180
3-Mar 097 -4822187841 -49263 039 Mar-03 212 422 396 181
3-Apr 824 08044165566 01717 619 Apr-03 230 425 397 192
3-May 527 86017617168 75621 492 May-03 242 462 427 202
3-Jun 128 -16232843116 -23723 11 Jun-03 245 454 417 204
3-Jul 176 -58470688666 -38819 084 Jul-03 249 428 401 206
3-Aug 195 -01285241001 24459 191 Aug-03 254 427 411 210
3-Sep -106 62607424571 26964 031 Sep-03 251 454 422 210
3-Oct 566 09634730462 79884 431 Oct-03 266 458 455 219
3-Nov 088 23264834944 02951 12 Nov-03 268 469 457 222
3-Dec 524 14110879536 8856 41 Dec-03 282 476 497 231
4-Jan 184 19478633231 26613 172 Jan-04 287 485 510 235
4-Feb 139 52879779623 57235 144 Feb-04 291 511 540 239
4-Mar -151 2268957551 -03792 -05 Mar-04 287 522 538 237
4-Apr -157 -56830338449 -105019 -233 Apr-04 282 493 481 232
4-May 137 -16566072328 -32214 087 May-04 286 484 466 234
4-Jun 194 -17215338796 -23435 168 Jun-04 292 476 455 238
4-Jul -331 -06069797015 -19673 -258 Jul-04 282 473 446 232
4-Aug 04 -05707405134 -31134 082 Aug-04 283 470 432 234
4-Sep 108 70162697766 75979 145 Sep-04 286 503 465 237
4-Oct 153 34033420009 3203 17 Oct-04 291 521 480 241
4-Nov 405 45583596598 79681 368 Nov-04 302 544 518 250
4-Dec 34 01240939032 07905 307 Dec-04 313 545 522 257
5-Jan -244 16755564551 -35158 -181 Jan-05 305 554 504 253
5-Feb 21 -20025648058 07235 196 Feb-05 311 543 507 258
5-Mar -177 -10751895082 -32131 -158 Mar-05 306 537 491 254
5-Apr -19 -2390258099 -3307 -143 Apr-05 300 524 475 250
5-May 318 08685813036 14103 272 May-05 310 529 481 257
5-Jun 014 2223478206 2443 083 Jun-05 310 541 493 259
5-Jul 372 -21671781188 16173 293 Jul-05 322 529 501 267
5-Aug -091 49286219575 23044 002 Aug-05 319 555 513 267
5-Sep 081 37034231946 44919 108 Sep-05 321 576 536 270
5-Oct -167 -41709576663 -50465 -191 Oct-05 316 552 509 264
5-Nov 378 22186228209 731 307 Nov-05 328 564 546 272
5-Dec 003 15087373486 26914 097 Dec-05 328 572 561 275
6-Jan 265 05184116785 49735 32 Jan-06 337 575 588 284
6-Feb 027 -12693666599 -08661 013 Feb-06 338 568 583 284
6-Mar 125 20763323239 66529 136 Mar-06 342 580 622 288
6-Apr 134 -11401031738 110633 149 Apr-06 346 573 691 292
6-May -288 -38328436628 -15079 -283 May-06 336 551 681 284
6-Jun 014 -17992981531 -41286 014 Jun-06 337 541 652 285
6-Jul 062 -32543371611 -14002 038 Jul-06 339 524 643 286
6-Aug 238 -01076272465 29098 232 Aug-06 347 523 662 292
6-Sep 258 07974403785 -03827 16 Sep-06 356 527 659 297
6-Oct 326 -29512764216 -00218 309 Oct-06 368 512 659 306
6-Nov 19 03172013357 58364 222 Nov-06 375 513 698 313
6-Dec 14 25165243518 03787 117 Dec-06 380 526 700 317
7-Jan 151 -10891073316 07036 127 Jan-07 386 520 705 321
7-Feb -196 -0242828355 -13437 -066 Feb-07 378 519 696 318
7-Mar 112 -24787732727 -10187 115 Mar-07 382 506 689 322
7-Apr 443 02879881174 68079 345 Apr-07 399 508 736 333
7-May 349 04724656451 33768 267 May-07 413 510 761 342
7-Jun -166 06726351642 29473 -111 Jun-07 406 514 783 338
7-Jul -31 -10308231752 -62002 -209 Jul-07 394 508 734 331
7-Aug 15 -48378452877 -4152 085 Aug-07 400 484 704 334
7-Sep 374 50760632525 70341 364 Sep-07 415 508 753 346
7-Oct 159 36478459472 64209 235 2672 Oct-07 421 527 802 354
7-Nov -418 -09519733939 -29049 -338 Nov-07 404 522 779 342
7-Dec -069 -00407441673 00631 -06 Dec-07 401 522 779 340
8-Jan -6 38885050267 87377 -527 Jan-08 377 542 847 322
8-Feb -325 79938792923 97517 -138 Feb-08 364 585 930 318
8-Mar -043 -01164410281 -17484 -069 Mar-08 363 585 913 316
8-Apr 487 -11768609649 -73215 412 Apr-08 381 578 847 329
8-May 13 26727320318 02045 143 May-08 385 593 848 334
8-Jun -843 38796643349 38908 -664 Jun-08 353 616 881 311
8-Jul -084 -111000927524 -63133 -116 Jul-08 350 548 826 308
8-Aug 145 -81389596386 09693 032 Aug-08 355 503 834 309
8-Sep -891 2350077992 4926 -863 Sep-08 323 515 875 282
8-Oct -1679 231353875038 118043 -1488 Oct-08 269 634 978 240
8-Nov -718 91409930423 52566 -464 Nov-08 250 692 1029 229
8-Dec 106 39012647249 17001 298 Dec-08 252 719 1047 236
9-Jan -843 36085657209 -01782 -629 Jan-09 231 745 1045 221
9-Feb -1065 17480110926 0841 -723 Feb-09 207 758 1054 205
9-Mar 876 -40891209192 -17399 626 Mar-09 225 727 1035 218
9-Apr 957 -52452980511 -24793 785 Apr-09 246 689 1010 235
9-May 559 -175764056892 24393 525 May-09 260 568 1034 247
9-Jun 02 26344903362 -3873 018 Jun-09 260 583 994 248
9-Jul 756 29911557926 15775 638 Jul-09 280 600 1010 264
9-Aug 361 66647387555 02737 292 Aug-09 290 640 1013 271
9-Sep 373 19908108013 31657 353 Sep-09 301 653 1045 281
9-Oct -186 -1135758063 -18836 -156 Oct-09 295 646 1025 276
9-Nov 6 429598654 65618 406 Nov-09 313 673 1092 288
9-Dec 193 -3538041182 -30108 161 Dec-09 319 649 1060 292
10-Jan -36 -22840646395 -587 -256 Jan-10 308 635 997 285
10-Feb 31 13842186803 10589 206 Feb-10 317 643 1008 291
10-Mar 603 38205356429 32922 477 Mar-10 336 668 1041 304
10-Apr 158 14253968325 03791 14 Apr-10 342 678 1045 309
10-May -799 -05569215148 17471 -621 May-10 314 674 1063 290
10-Jun -523 -23229482293 07896 -318 Jun-10 298 658 1072 280
10-Jul 701 -52850060701 -35575 569 Jul-10 319 623 1034 296
10-Aug -451 76993453056 43121 -284 Aug-10 305 671 1078 288
10-Sep 892 05035470246 12552 702 Sep-10 332 675 1092 308
10-Oct 38 35726262618 52271 293 Oct-10 344 699 1149 317
10-Nov 001 -46572458071 -67101 -044 Nov-10 344 666 1072 316
10-Dec 668 71205616987 60114 502 Dec-10 367 714 1136 332
11-Jan 237 14260916813 02413 151 Jan-11 376 724 1139 337
11-Feb 343 -08196213636 14822 271 Feb-11 389 718 1156 346
11-Mar 004 -25144800567 -53504 026 Mar-11 389 700 1094 347
11-Apr 296 51621261523 44419 292 Apr-11 401 736 1142 357
11-May -113 -18535770592 -51957 -088 May-11 396 722 1083 354
11-Jun -167 08676483656 -46402 -14 Jun-11 389 729 1033 349
11-Jul -203 93387304437 48149 -126 Jul-11 382 797 1083 344
11-Aug -543 3189583693 00543 -469 Aug-11 361 822 1083 328
11-Sep -703 -41599527992 34989 -619 Sep-11 335 788 1121 308
11-Oct 1093 -13852548076 -6243 834 Oct-11 372 777 1051 333
11-Nov -022 39284953285 -00578 -096 Nov-11 371 808 1050 330
11-Dec 102 01889893545 02082 061 Dec-11 375 809 1053 332
12-Jan 448 -01521632453 -04526 426 Jan-12 392 808 1048 346
12-Feb 432 -22430032837 14221 342 Feb-12 409 790 1063 358
12-Mar 329 -12258940456 -21399 158 Mar-12 422 780 1040 364
12-Apr -063 13756177692 -18216 -038 Apr-12 420 791 1021 363
12-May -601 43616823461 38067 -528 May-12 394 825 1060 343
12-Jun 412 -61107318666 -83896 324 Jun-12 411 775 971 355
12-Jul 139 -2662867044 20145 115 Jul-12 416 754 991 359
12-Aug 225 -29540623033 -22929 186 Aug-12 426 732 968 365
12-Sep 258 -47724948882 -20234 22 Sep-12 437 697 948 373
12-Oct -185 -18050840884 -36659 -098 Oct-12 429 684 914 370
12-Nov 058 -03984415062 -0944 079 Nov-12 431 682 905 373
12-Dec 091 -17220762656 24366 124 Dec-12 435 670 927 377
13-Jan 518 -04335912154 32593 387 Jan-13 458 667 957 392
13-Feb 136 -29598734504 01523 08 Feb-13 464 647 959 395
13-Mar 375 -04786782014 2166 255 Mar-13 481 644 979 405
13-Apr 193 11854540053 29259 181 Apr-13 490 652 1008 412
13-May 234 -43222576245 -06784 082 May-13 502 624 1001 416
13-Jun -134 06875789801 10553 -177 Jun-13 495 628 1012 408
13-Jul 509 06412005306 -19554 423 Jul-13 520 632 992 426
13-Aug -29 11512128942 -11474 -214 Aug-13 505 639 981 417
13-Sep 314 -19925877399 -05148 361 Sep-13 521 626 976 432
13-Oct 46 -07538953205 -06933 349 Oct-13 545 622 969 447
13-Nov 305 27584740935 46402 189 Nov-13 562 639 1014 455
13-Dec 253 19377872096 15067 18 Dec-13 576 651 1029 463
14-Jan -346 -08961192857 -51141 -251 Jan-14 556 645 976 452
14-Feb 457 -00139276726 -05865 399 Feb-14 581 645 971 470
14-Mar 084 -34260446582 -18865 037 Mar-14 586 623 952 471
14-Apr 074 22210329784 03199 043 Apr-14 591 637 955 473
14-May 235 -07288421342 07134 197 May-14 605 632 962 483
14-Jun 207 05841054246 00135 195 Jun-14 617 636 962 492
14-Jul -138 -00888949644 03097 -153 Jul-14 609 636 965 485
14-Aug 4 18791535569 48657 313 Aug-14 633 648 1012 500
14-Sep -14 69028951277 63915 -221 Sep-14 624 692 1077 489
14-Oct 244 21563513841 15927 194 Oct-14 639 707 1094 498
14-Nov 269 72204527611 104647 19 Nov-14 657 758 1209 508 LTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98)
14-Dec -025 76468641712 47745 -044 Dec-14 655 816 1266 506 Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02)
15-Jan -3 54094515689 113573 -159 Jan-15 635 860 1410 497 Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09)
15-Feb 575 -50846010492 -16603 45 Feb-15 672 817 1387 520
15-Mar -158 65245129876 57568 -083 Mar-15 661 870 1467 516
15-Apr 096 -88441663253 -51219 09 Apr-15 667 793 1392 520
15-May 129 40875447394 08884 073 May-15 676 825 1404 524
15-Jun -194 -66047202646 -62159 -171 Jun-15 663 771 1317 515
15-Jul 21 80060563143 34205 126 Jul-15 677 833 1362 522
15-Aug -603 -10026780942 -24342 -522 Aug-15 636 824 1329 494
15-Sep -247 36089130828 34355 -247 Sep-15 620 854 1374 482
15-Oct 844 -16993598229 -58073 637 Oct-15 673 839 1294 513
15-Nov 03 48441920313 30487 01 Nov-15 675 880 1334 513
15-Dec -158 11998205926 -10345 -173 Dec-15 664 891 1320 504
16-Jan -496 31480723033 48626 -453 Jan-16 631 919 1384 482
16-Feb -013 33572073647 44379 -002 Feb-16 630 950 1446 481
16-Mar 678 -61786855584 -39621 601 Mar-16 673 891 1388 510
16-Apr 039 -31282642584 09914 082 Apr-16 676 863 1402 515
16-May 18 -08911812015 -5253 107 May-16 688 855 1328 520
16-Jun 026 65324823204 94059 03 Jun-16 690 911 1453 522
16-Jul 369 21567955023 02767 348 Jul-16 715 931 1457 540
16-Aug 014 -15149 -44038 024 Aug-16 716 917 1393 541
16-Sep 002 10335 0967 025 Sep-16 716 926 1407 542
-41363
Correllation 100 -022 -015 097
skew -04 02 01 -08
Kurt 198 469 -028 186

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 6

CROSM Class Management Diagram

bull Within this construct the asset-owner (ie RISIC)bull Searches for and selects platform managerbull Searches for and selects component managers (funds)bull Determines level of guideline authority to assign to platform manager

PlatformManager

RIA and Fiduciary

BrokersTrade Execution Admin - NAV Calculations

SubscriptionsRedemptions

Trade Reconciliation

(vetted by platform manager)

PlatformManager

Client CustodianCash Safekeeping

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 7

Systematic Trend Following Benchmark Review

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 8

bull Momentum and Trend Following are somewhat interchangeable terms

bull That which has done well recently will continue to do well

bull That which has done poorly recently will continue to do poorly

bull Buy what is going up sell what is going down

Ex if SampP 500 has a positive 1-year return buygo long Ex if oil has a negative 1-year return sellshort

bull This results in a volatile yet low correlation return vs risky assets (eg equities) over a full market cycle

Often a positive correlation during strong (extended) bull markets and a negative correlation during major bear markets

Description ndash What is Systematic Trend Following

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 9

bull Trend horizon or lookback period = the length of time that the signal is ldquolooking backrdquo to see if the total return index is higher (lower) today than 30 days 3 months 1 year ago etc

bull Moving average (MA) crossover is a methodology to identify a trend - if short term MA is above longer term MA = Uptrend (buy market)- if short term MA is below longer term MA = Downtrend (sell market)

bull The trend horizon of a moving average is half of its moving average ndash this makes sense

Trend Following Terminology

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Example The average lookback of an equally weighted moving average is total days in the moving average divided by two

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 10

bull Manage long and short positions according to systematic signals

bull Implemented in futures and forwards (currency) markets (see Appendix)

bull Investable universe includes liquid markets across the globe Equities = typically broad indices such as SampP 500 Nikkei 225 etc Fixed Income = typically sovereign bondsrates such as US 10-year Treasury Currencies = typically major currencies such as JPY GBP EUR AUD CAD CHF Commodities = energy metals and agriculture components

bull Strategy implementation volatility is customizable (range anywhere from roughly 5-30 (capable of offsetting equity asymp 18-20)

bull Systematic = rules-based implementation

bull Related terms = managed futures CTAs (commodity trading advisors)

How do systematic trend following managers invest

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 11

Basic Trend Following Example

bull Single Asset Example 21 day average price gt 252 day average price = long position 21 day average price lt 252 day average price = short position

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 12

bull The RISICrsquos Trend Following allocation and corresponding managers should be compiled based on assessing the following criteria

Trend Horizons Short asymp lt1 month Medium asymp 1-11 months Long asymp12+ months

Systematic implementation = quantitatively-oriented firmso Graduate (PhD Masters) backgrounds in mathematics physics computer scienceo Straight forward strategy design (ie humility)

Focus on global futures markets (ie utilize forwards on limited basis)

Strong focus on risk management and diversification

Target gt15 annual standard deviationo Required in order to meaningfully impact portfolio

RISIC Mandate ndash Trend Following Allocation

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 13

Why medium-term trends

o Trend Horizons Short asymp lt1 month | Medium asymp 1-11 months | Long asymp12+ months

o Medium to long-term trends provide most robust return patterns - whyo Short term trends are too short (risk getting whipsawed in choppy markets)o Long term trends are too long (longer time to turn lower hit ratios)

o The average of all trend horizons traded is the horizon of the strategy

Using a larger number of moving average signals reduces the dependency on individual data points and leads to an increased robustness of the strategy vs more concentrated strategies shorter drawdown periods

What length of trend is best How many

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 14

bull Benchmarking Trend Following strategies is imperfectbull Primarily due to different volatility targets markets traded and trend horizons (lookback)

bull Benchmark characteristicsbull Construction based on consistently applied tradingrisk-management rulesbull Inclusive of markets traded by managers (rates currency commodities equities)bull Broad scalable investible published available at low cost as a simple option bull Comparable to the strategies run by managers that will be sourced

bull Institutional investors track several major benchmarks bull MLM 3X IndexTM (Investable rules-based)bull Credit Suisse Managed Futures Liquid IndexTM 15 Target Volatility (Investable rules-based)bull Societe Generale Trend IndexTM (Uninvestable 10 largest trend managers)

Trend Following Benchmarks

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 15

Investable Trend Following Benchmark Comparisons

Source Mount Lucas Management Credit Suisse

Several distinctions between indices can produce different performance behaviors

Selected Investable STF Benchmark Characteristics

MLM Index 3X trade (with interest on cash)

Credit Suisse Managed Futures Liquid Indextrade

15 Target VolBasic trend signal Time-series momentum Moving Average Crossover

of look-back periods utilized 1 16Range of look-back periods only 12-months 1-month to 9-months

Average look-back period 12-months 5 monthsMarkets traded

Number of markets 22 31

Major market segmentsFixed Income (5)

Currencies (6) Commodities (11)

Fixed Income (4) Currencies (5)

Commodities (17) (in 4 aggregated contracts)

Equities (5)Contracts traded 22 18Trading Frequency Monthly Daily

Volatility Framework

Leveraged to set volatility at 3-times non-levered index volatility Volatility is not

bounded but results from construction

Leveraged to target volatility at an expected forward-looking standard deviation of 15

(within a range of variation)SampP 500

1995-2016 Volatility

Index Volatility 1995-2016 141 147 149Inclusion of return on cash Yes YesYear of Inception Index 1970 1995

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 16

The Credit Suisse MF Liquid Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLMtrade 3x Index

Several years where indices diverge particularly in more recent calendar years but both provided major offset in severe down markets-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Annu

al R

etur

ns -

Calendar Year Returns

MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol 7030 Portfolio

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 17

The Credit Suisse MF Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLM 3x Index

CSMF IndexTM

15 volhas produced a similar but more consistent return pattern versus MLM 3X IndexTM

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

Growth of $1 ndash Index Comparisons

MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol

SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio

Returns to systematic trend following are episodic with long periods of little going on

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 18

The Credit Suisse MF Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLM 3x Index

Comparative Performance Statistics

MLM 3x and Credit Suisse 15 Vol exhibit similar statistical characteristics

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Periods Ending 93020161 Year 85 124 07 24 162 01 125 105 12 154 125 12

3 Years 139 145 10 130 156 08 79 90 09 112 108 105 Years 33 129 03 46 138 03 120 92 13 164 111 15

10 Years 58 163 03 79 144 05 62 124 04 72 153 0420 Years 98 141 05 117 147 06 71 121 04 79 154 04

Statistical MeasuresLargest Drawdown - period

Largest Drawdown - -5095Largest Drawdown - of months 16

Recovery PeriodRecovery Duration 37

Crisis Period ReturnsLTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98) -100

Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02) -206Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09) -388

SampP 500

Nov-07 - Feb-09

Mar-09 - Mar-12

113 127 -145

Jun-09 - Jul-11 Dec-12 - Nov-14 Mar-09 - Apr-1126 24

326 277 -309

121 143 -88

26

-2509 -277 -42163 21 16

MLM 3x Credit Suisse 15 Vol 7030

Mar-09 - May-09 Mar-11 - Nov-12 Nov-07 - Feb-09

Data

Growth of $1 - Selected Indices

SampP 500 Index3466934700347313475934790348203485134881349123494334973350043503435065350963512535156351863521735247352783530935339353703540035431354623549035521355513558235612356433567435704357353576535796358273585535886359163594735977360083603936069361003613036161361923622036251362813631236342363733640436434364653649536526365573658636617366473667836708367393677036800368313686136892369233695136982370123704337073371043713537165371963722637257372883731637347373773740837438374693750037530375613759137622376533768137712377423777337803378343786537895379263795637987380183804738078381083813938169382003823138261382923832238353383843841238443384733850438534385653859638626386573868738718387493877738808388383886938899389303896138991390223905239083391143914239173392033923439264392953932639356393873941739448394793950839539395693960039630396613969239722397533978339814398453987339904399343996539995400264005740087401184014840179402104023840269402994033040360403914042240452404834051340544405754060340634406644069540725407564078740817408484087840909409404096941000410304106141091411224115341183412144124441275413064133441365413954142641456414874151841548415794160941640416714169941730417604179141821418524188341913419444197442005420364206442095421254215642186422174224842278423094233942370424014243042461424914252242552425834261411025910659101109735444795000011129616668719730211748013354685194120205672645138931241965009769575412450699222939992129761187301480581292940470271952513497005569168912137574977766538731422525270106010514357547551179966144953800076712951470846209378406315087940415803691151452745893837461447585345253298514781293960381431561348081035090416044412880716591725737049449876516915674558707691797290421862691918113092871532211736864475451223718405552846356619195264510146997352040123602015828222025174407362882207917646405505612193115334285272921198652821201449221801504468230752256164903450843522812083338791482244568345475183512570902447635128825968685623562435255220242308371642655821841460915226276701299414293224770902915189862391787177920535525862394754854749274296558769989482900960405551408930222205505034578292822949138280023045358671038112431632140516072873308856219998935533259977402088765131582661071435956314279060321859173056678140690402232501658669961042331614423409612513511465129484386633351895799842701327215449692256753592171206721594134840468533992741341262389290458933496915703059332534423638180916072365613461119509613463090703723995334485457227683547317680031981420853192366641381297733056956571503342300421621321822428140493269215101303270095962331173053020056052787829788316686907052949639118337536127649917095296064254158037939961412590124564646146627887871187545059281332844539954552772253850096712227187493507898459282097432637954442650023282200944263041310991265712443127696486875822525637361608997226743065681956152020960944423275221988055075325237232831515192618932191643052508121921342220045324092102208674464422621226000986067275229750234673192224185807204046941244953855362587424926504321696896254125711559699925143197901716707265663029029538712680008636849986528204410894209262872337205466271291226269262225212868287525963656228232554118060267286193401094776962917455530760156628208877526919953283217130370276322862758753782752629065589627156293024274600705612312709993712960313050798698663641131148654713355772305973235249293743001597437795571630970482363174709310138410384831563216755592511472831874831166196183321330172986423731596395909755043279073967514378332800576897046323336697921848180483376070062371705534182709381513519346407576872258013364310386583369433690204211245862338990834773555873470588166411665135601293411050863367618955762511183746037159219988637984816794490683385583875280874937802643132536975382260327356213913991944598580941941312634650714166406268449155123173936741272313143239957923913978401414523502683611964211144263762814340351184335375292400727611634612043766839549365352836444172640109791362874626977573238054662131138102385493727388428953529966061695843935003143467775993551068904805874132346686653876708269156779646908124983132286826009252479534890663612311955100993806420657318827379658224668999566581152461698228251029425993071592102619260450577352868252801406410007451229025371814087202301080181827526562954800904455345831320889587226666319253827562601433077606897703477631730127115322853364345378037681734175020350106773314444362241332432979989220961107431888864653504814304506768576317473316687723333249734427218568199134344306612900559553673062946423169376011453825339853889086466915490138906421015022561400580510770672323960539509989637438943985001728101381534221061930223608169128582674335451483884331213721163310728886371297675144528233750849114310024239188871546311134088183079711177142226843030336747419608139192456253943896900269896410638545256101574163464210351613742571421550845248436697642268570534286187358866019543110472455474422435027777548192424575622164251887746378506256857133481177002414892834904637185615003550194056957583948495214565943523245204209873500485850532877871689719521196102368607855451711230775638156179884233142952576012353042414745560823256271471758149528790830782586379848326737555907190592043554660460095709565786617116196907537966085999933902138963294399312582256240827772220609663931039698627927656507846665210166548665770485471663522057973709076671745763071973566611321800154363466747904894358454676089528674956696629733918186625367689583304685437636079014314129056203678626605700767272691026912224674745090999929526640841185621305963114554628144894630325057071283167306109594071613675686034214884936878483828307528568963678862611273715084386126416237160855042669932271622872136784661MLM Index 3X 34669347003473134759347903482034851348813491234943349733500435034350653509635125351563518635217352473527835309353393537035400354313546235490355213555135582356123564335674357043573535765357963582735855358863591635947359773600836039360693610036130361613619236220362513628136312363423637336404364343646536495365263655736586366173664736678367083673936770368003683136861368923692336951369823701237043370733710437135371653719637226372573728837316373473737737408374383746937500375303756137591376223765337681377123774237773378033783437865378953792637956379873801838047380783810838139381693820038231382613829238322383533838438412384433847338504385343856538596386263865738687387183874938777388083883838869388993893038961389913902239052390833911439142391733920339234392643929539326393563938739417394483947939508395393956939600396303966139692397223975339783398143984539873399043993439965399954002640057400874011840148401794021040238402694029940330403604039140422404524048340513405444057540603406344066440695407254075640787408174084840878409094094040969410004103041061410914112241153411834121441244412754130641334413654139541426414564148741518415484157941609416404167141699417304176041791418214185241883419134194441974420054203642064420954212542156421864221742248422784230942339423704240142430424614249142522425524258342614110148884646900895103340591859474421072408712997243110940677971075865114262418660692781160092612677171142959157168208311013103426890634110783733289700331137038224450235111679226409959909121850894347440231242433353496411812252167585248812126896699822459641328653866929275813351606121318145134081055440927281296797928471894713619392434367088143576578138179231509218792763344715752141625393705159741476392170381624588692915244715961946131990337158166634405606991596268567466747615854045132050956160762782421028591674471548787969116334608788312481167136836594916961724103293485745617540016237536971184317397396999281833207803473638519081906293617161199528158418133362015627484786143521495947913924032218083936204276442354434329164940125568449301383946244569562533616392392098972026799324768457163719559259133315331014382621527584284674826443486642972855246776974677741692522251779160873425363596849993599255718459950524222543332082009850425755097037285197263905469237608912593318215612296269111264944554352772336103456553228413595450075206282512675271448142755300091516830227662953436071924283321999650090952858120804002444629274590427040774314817804441657153177213234675698932724829006272378344643433993104513357024175828066833541251801571748340849392335919133573122662643302134183224213506169350375186287367593498251493609266634218858110597834333267389762584413368122399944071733998101148189912334494512142795573371605936289772133754249508694474336728934548908533149571666931522831544831262756059321576109118041663364182590872654433313630471808207345352304220459553602010422381642353506087423034153511404375039457388026730482139434188411671450271744330063747749886421923848037816734253178733277496646190270333054864454404709212399464278353529314546427285481394055114540367249408701545841124640575002469076108389668847569518484822714849610768837257251060571175497652219113860765338492514839465369294843558030123659847601745376581057473128124445944394704277905596145950343427344960032520567863524614445442972190172910554497265868140495541039832423297543007691886491815371693301544380252432959673518953528883825581519765406434421783125752892673579868639554995535038222757554936841166908551543447906696125637801167088788657228607789353605575252875755654567950807540961575797433537416528573133681365925715511663633801610754124923718312337523635162123404735230715880167218252724277206795183511682380451475985133054437969212552622290028893799520491768101300335192278665029281450635738492353615078156340236386551021488843485043513646773187677665083519832107603248375870074608462508314598385507925268571318619042852184159214284254521628972131248554191254093339198585232375325283725845509247309335557767157307764609593111186249949546161219094094592654773180599687912503152135379287295149766029792115163411843563236063692083157713540857190831538127088974503174200586004758054979499215967270571947536747268892087788668714567833349511720355827928642302366600225106747576396402285420570113652974281025352986455580729791857567329116090210022649469842354643846346355313413052864342027491780147668002375855000886775240605615865267375078330068803658099901409815496233192816727965167131078552540018674691151011573536987953442583287466625072738788234713691521499241957238694169177803971793642853250548699884060217257537360129583255957972237039097739091728638025868266767966835670147050482209445615305849787895714812564137769813515439796780750502764271417809031126182080138078000781649011678968109588554389780000442351743847907302670362232982521940949887469774792464073246567541607708880763873188239184893966696953342110148546843727482284168568164592314229058669907460484101416670028005841815364726036177634292644162067518287266517983125485561662362591028781749627913830961134966319400177769446392149927453023662647807316842243621755084290590616389060372158093465128667668604236454503711708577364536047495606406623250136877504976370927279553024363244932772003528636143498551355266355779990150757647521485590334586922192146698701170714589328632549758205028463395178161839371290312886033501192088568816590408878332148698689561611674479293629886653179825347924837850757708360031927344283254956769909807824201775560706285394650126758993839434877515595628800987149600684889065832057726926918696888484690189495394480839779789087039133391421863001611292771298553107031643975291118372363297819930836093202313829167348572263920392620931197582674Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol3466934700347313475934790348203485134881349123494334973350043503435065350963512535156351863521735247352783530935339353703540035431354623549035521355513558235612356433567435704357353576535796358273585535886359163594735977360083603936069361003613036161361923622036251362813631236342363733640436434364653649536526365573658636617366473667836708367393677036800368313686136892369233695136982370123704337073371043713537165371963722637257372883731637347373773740837438374693750037530375613759137622376533768137712377423777337803378343786537895379263795637987380183804738078381083813938169382003823138261382923832238353383843841238443384733850438534385653859638626386573868738718387493877738808388383886938899389303896138991390223905239083391143914239173392033923439264392953932639356393873941739448394793950839539395693960039630396613969239722397533978339814398453987339904399343996539995400264005740087401184014840179402104023840269402994033040360403914042240452404834051340544405754060340634406644069540725407564078740817408484087840909409404096941000410304106141091411224115341183412144124441275413064133441365413954142641456414874151841548415794160941640416714169941730417604179141821418524188341913419444197442005420364206442095421254215642186422174224842278423094233942370424014243042461424914252242552425834261411018462101362837934799991085448004538323111929118787182351207652511407176612019125390204581117484546864171731138109225682759411830542971141973121282349239248191253561020678453113125047134317747138373303172500361331459748985528213803323105317908144737919185125151412776697511663614531058211188315137577152931888721415729437616425115318985323494783165982278309038621803231471549395617904050860922647176145960706541091733942085083835175478753683071291781330453112814217978309170999982178327747582607391891163979836075817798727619506824189722689263713871946922853862876201326619703110722104247709741140121084225371972662212855164715988862206722706401835322669441690595415238021656835493992409319476336215824715883382021251271921183062991962754716579502454626218979196217438257775040245115282671023723013445526347004714041855255795955077359592495813923487551426251544884444464257360170460037412686083540701638126872519870418432268999567132061262705837055829019925763194593147083265313757663309472813103200541033527419823254249551277010409615451362676529979786414226160056073535038263894797652999412548730262056363225800821930099183269664772640791342707517913393063628270088014648396313954310549318153084717264241954307157328397901933299419518611299136098849970540673374596302831080134120070774442652341385979728731753396520803376895345726418142448733666639557515736237492416134674511343543009042022533332642022114852532434638542450811315841698852292073039414153229354430189376200790483316853805490444573357411439819244935075011608249249360984302969547423856135399925536837040956933772726354401578979658723774972210786050840695295174214756416994515826385033964521149932298139713282327467319427164404503527264170307833354900940084206535718971410646261433761244217189272270611745540752200966779456751429607118284972013362131246351043335537376455539648008468581965376016632204691248114327415071871465643724717227545473136402847931445785433903947054319063502047815646472216278699063479607213661057945178227960527846352191618525558194503566656014366215072099607706301949091279752110903474678311307085914813726995314497449313263458100307501108068680081651265560301474542535683580046564785086503081795148954583264570743744560523185534007515884008061665413858330466678433295622111342960827866909373871666130868051874230552771652422845510701696432876208278608866200600401871004659472507041330465932874203479539697809804734914257004524104654454705380793625480346959025919015347688813432197833827357071618484301576055052128972793782966226803700147344207548094170970392760506973007753442576737939978018203711477063777852829118623665779019542537975168470879331063159292969340707904458913438647549674528465612369693250484829245469892748812978175263532882565884241246206833661953571965958747281414049210197798367540078193102939236528189951046893064884057110450275014424337105381618272956461035480834966252810098081586249346103444040903827289943765319962205110100628217884611012827363731696104489043958535041025208883265320710924810397674245105958862062210699973907685915891710079521394402054104113593977485571045082886122542310633415292259892107173767394075751033610606190315107818092913984761091714256162410911487792520462763107169501545471921136118889613764111388603444944021115574053252049810939037910685213114249390356399391083133347816519510328737942111374108260563452860941083193489388158411210933463883606105110348877333521050495950956824310526830835267162104791863989067431062821090868559510400777823450634102113172546186561060003146855022697107312284647369906353909062158296792111202812716948336196247350049135711396291183690494702807101941926996967356997999572105795140647295866841122666457979433169013834081008090404106009810012515188045546101181772608249919920326422666829806500597293140997560167322182769688378268213806910137938396615464102906867144372699764410705174233597071424363883869524017194325919595544845253305679622646217934274796239452751736962965375063369090821012347317827440610770514966463814109420569583346841208711039285353212664209478560323141025217416688541386837757319192514666752333325439139155359455648431403916156690523913166501323067976136168615008235161328539985817047137418197702979161294379107077740413338408429152194132004225939526151384230634300615614456614056202426138838285506816291402147282693308713284924859334293145344916066784191457470854495409713932867530051409140675983590670087030 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

Performance Stats

Performance stats (2)

Correlations

Annual Returns

Calendar Year Returns

MLM Index 3X1995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420150218999999999999970311015404060000000000000370000000000000007E-202110000000000000240000000000000001E-30151022600000000000001014599999999999999005-008-90000000000000011E-30379-96999999999999989E-299000000000000005E-2013400000000000001-017199999999999999-27999999999999997E-2025390999999999999998E-2Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015031303639999999999999901749999999999999902690000000000000252999999999999999E-297000000000000003E-2008013300000000000001031700573999999999999996E-2025011203439999999999999712E-271999999999999995E-2-72999999999999995E-2-01189999999999999901102310000000000000142000000000000003E-27030 Portfolio1995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420150265000000000000010145999999999999990218999999999999970196999999999999980182-55999999999999994E-2-88000000000000009E-2-0138000000000000010247011469000000000000006E-2015174999999999999997E-2-03070238999999999999990135000000000000012E-301350000000000000102280000000000000190999999999999998E-2-2E-3

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 19

The Credit Suisse MF Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLM 3x Index Correlations

bull Both MLM and Credit Suisse exhibit similar negative correlations with US equities

bull MLM and Credit Suisse indices are highly correlated with one another

Correlations ndash various periods ending 93016

SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM 7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099MLM Index 3X -054 -056 MLM Index 3X -023 -026

Credit Suisse Index -059 -055 080 Credit Suisse Index -021 -020 082

SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM 7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099MLM Index 3X -031 -033 MLM Index 3X -036 -036

Credit Suisse Index -027 -027 076 Credit Suisse Index -021 -021 066

1 Year Correlation 3 Year Correlation

10 Year Correlation5 Year Correlation

SampP 500 7030 MLM 7030 Portfolio 098MLM Index 3X -027 -026

Credit Suisse Index -018 -016 066

20 Year Correlation

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 20

Systematic Trend Following modeled with the MLM 3X IndexTM in the AL study Long history calculated back to pre-1970 PCA used data going back to 1970 Simple captures the beta captures big down markets reasonable for modeling However has only one lookback period (12 months) slow to respond to trends Investible but not inclusive of the full opportunity set (no equities)

Benchmark recommendation Credit Suisse Managed Futures Liquid IndexTM15 vol Diversified across 18 deep and liquid futures contracts in major markets Diversified across 16 lookback horizons from trading 30 days to 12 months Utilizes a moving average crossover method to determine the signal Equally risk weighted over 288 potentially different signals (long or short) Most comparable to the strategies that will be sourced

Recommended RISIC Mandate Benchmark

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 21

Due Diligence Plan Update Relating To STF and Platform Manager

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 22

Due Diligence Process Outline Platform Manager

bull Provide a short list of platform implementation platform managers

Draft DDQ prepared to be issued

bull Send DDQ to short list platform managers

bull Conduct a review of platform managers DDQ responses - rate proposals

PCA and Rhode Island investment staff

bull Conduct onsite due diligence at platform managers offices in NYC

PCA and Rhode Island investment staff

bull Platform manager recommendation

PCA memo to SIC SIC interview recommended platform manager

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 23

Due Diligence Process Outline STF Managers

bull Provide a short list of systematic trend following managers

bull Draft DDQ prepared to be issued

bull Send a DDQ to short list systematic trend following managers

bull Conduct a review of STF managers DDQ responses - rate proposals

bull PCA and Rhode Island investment staff

bull Systematic trend following managers recommendation

bull PCA memo to SIC

bull SIC interview recommended systematic trend following managers

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 24

Other Implementation Crisis Risk OffsetSM Class Managers

Other bull Platform manager to conduct operational due diligence at recommended STF

Managerrsquos office

bull STF Managers hired contracting other administration 1Q 2017

bull Fund long-duration Fixed Income and systematic trend following accounts pari passu

bull Primary source of funds ndash Equity HF portfolio redemptions

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 25

Appendix

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 26

Model Output Focus Portfolio Comparison of Trend IndicesFocus Portfolio

Line Strategic Class Trend

MLM 3x Index

TrendCS MF Index

1 US Equity 200 2002 Non-US Equity 200 2003 Private Growth 150 1504 Income Class 60 605 Crisis Risk Offset 80 806 Inflation Protection 100 1007 IG Fixed Income 115 1158 Absolute Return 65 659 Cash 30 30

10 Total 1000 1000

Asset Only Statistics11 Median Scenario Comp Return (22-year period) 73 7312 Average Scenario Standard Deviation (22-year period) 118 12113 Sharpe Ratio (22-year period) 041 04014 Sortino Ratio (22-year period) 074 074

15 Best Year Worst Year 298 -208

306 -210

16 Average 2-year Loss of Worst 10 -160 -164AssetLiability Statistics

17 Percent of Scenarios lt50 [during first 5-years] 75 7918 Median Funded Ratio [end of 5-years] 600 59919 Average Funded Ratio of Worst 10 [end of 5-years] 477 47620 Median Funded Ratio [end of 22-years] 994 99121 Average Funded Ratio of Worst 10 [end of 22-years] 671 66522 Median Avg Ann Employer Cntrbs Rate [during 22-yrs] 206 20623 Average of Yrs w Employer Cntrbs Rate gt30 [during 22-yrs] 44 47

bull For modeling purposes both indices have same volatility assumptions

bull Modeling the Focus Portfolio with the CS MF Index results in the same long-term return (line 11) and slightly higher risk (line 12)

bull Portfolio results are similar regardless of the trend following index used in modeling the total portfolio

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 27

Comparing Modeling of MLM 3x and CS MF IndexMLM 3x Index Credits Suisse MF Index

1970 1607 9491971 648 -5801972 278 12791973 9190 63231974 1458 51501975 -620 -20551976 851 14651977 374 15591978 -178 4531979 2107 31971980 -568 4861981 2839 18891982 1278 13801983 -1005 -11941984 1281 0881985 239 5561986 456 2281987 643 10851988 188 -10381989 809 0551990 657 3771991 -604 -7281992 -557 -12351993 481 14301994 549 -7851995 384 14781996 409 21071997 077 0061998 992 10741999 -564 -12982000 3782 0122001 043 0492002 -972 11652003 1191 39572004 992 0172005 456 1152006 -1329 24292007 -461 4192008 4324 42422009 -811 -3752010 1370 5092011 1740 -16162012 -1910 -22872013 -127 10762014 2995 28432015 1359 086

-4000

-2000

000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Annual Modeled Returns

$0

$500

$1000

$1500

$2000

$2500

Growth of $100

MLM 3x Credit Suisse Managed Futures

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 28

The Credit Suisse Managed Futures Indextrade is a systematic trend following strategy that trades a total of 18 futures contracts providing liquid and diversified exposure to market trends across asset classes geographies and time horizons The strategy tracks 16 time horizon signals to identify trends across various horizons ranging from shorter-term moving average (60 trading days) to longer-term moving average (360 trading days) The average length of moving average signal utilized is a 210 trading days moving average

bull Shortest signal compares the 60 (trading) day MA (moving average) versus 5 day MA

bull Longest signal compares the 360 (trading) day MA (moving average) versus 5 day MA

bull For each of the 18 different futures contracts (markets) total return index

- If average price in most recent 5 days is gt average price over 60 days =gt Buy the market (go long)

- If average price in most recent 5 days is lt average price over 60 days=gt Sell the market (go short)

bull Signals are equally weighted resulting in a portfolio of long and short exposures When signals align (strong trends) the index is more long or more short

Recommended Benchmark Index

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 29

The Credit Suisse Managed Futures Indextrade Markets Traded

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 30

bull Diversifies and balances risk across the four major futures market typesbull Rebalancing incorporates recent trailing volatility of each instrument traded

The Credit Suisse Managed Futures Indextrade Risk Allocation

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 31

Instruments Forwards

bull Agreement to buysell an asset at a future time for a specified price Long position = agree to buy at the future date Short position = agree to sell at the future date

bull Over-the-counter instrument (ie customized have counterparty risk)

bull Different than an option in that both buyer and seller have obligations

bull Essentially a contract that states Asset type and amount Future date of trade Future price of trade Settlement options (ie cash payment or delivery of asset)

bull Currency forwards can be more liquid than currency futures

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 32

Instruments Futures

bull Futures = analogous to forwards but exchange tradedstandardized Exchanges (eg CME Group) provide numerous services

o Guarantee contracts will be honored backed by exchange with is backed by all of the exchange members (de minimis counterparty risk)

o Facilitate transactionso Set margin requirementso Organize daily settlementmarking to marketo Arrange settlementdelivery procedures

bull Extremely liquid instruments

bull Vast majority of futures contracts do not lead to delivery

bull Regulated by the US Government Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 33

Futures Transaction Example

bull November crude oil contract (one contract = 1000 barrels of oil)

bull ldquoPricerdquo of contract = delivery price (ie futures are free) 1000 barrels $43 = $43000 of exposure (ie notional value)

o Longbuy position = agree to buy 1000 barrels in November $43barrelo Shortsell position = agree to sell 1000 barrels in November $43barrel

Initial margin = $3190 (ie money that must be deposited to trade)o Typically equal to roughly one-day maximum price fluctuationo Margin = embedded leverageo Exchanges require daily settlementmark to market

bull At contract expiration (or anytime while contract is traded) | longbuy ldquoSpotrdquo price = $50

o Gain = ($50-$43) x 1000 = $7000

ldquoSpotrdquo price = $40o Loss = ($40-$43) x 1000 = ($3000)

Gainslosses for shortsell positionare the opposite

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 34

Leverage in Trend Following Strategies

bull Futures contain embedded leverage

bull Trend Following strategies leverage asymp 0x-7x Averagefull-cycle leverage asymp 3x

bull Without leverage (ie 1x) strategy volatility may be asymp 6 (ie bond-like)

bull Leveragerisk oversight is key component of strategy selection

bull Leverage protections Futures have daily price limits and daily settlement

o Price limit = maximum change in contract priceo Exchanges will close out positions if failed settlement

Long and short positions partially offset leverage risks

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 35

CROSM Implementation Considerations (LongShort aspects)bull Long position ndash give up cash to buy a security (traditional)

bull Short position ndash sell an un-owned security receive cash liable for securityrsquos position

bull Because of the liability short positions require collateral as security collateral levels based on potential security movements not total value of positions

bull Minimum collateral requirements allow managers to apply leverage

bull Unlike typical leveraged situations collateral requirements re-set every day

bull Longshort portfolios contain many offsetting long and short positions itrsquos the net position that matters

bull Longshort portfolios utilize ldquoprimary brokersrdquo to effect these types of trades

bull In total across entire CROSM class hundreds of netted ls positions

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 36

DISCLOSURES This document is provided for informational purposes only It does not constitute an offer of securities of any of the issuers that may be described herein Informationcontained herein may have been provided by third parties including investment firms providing information on returns and assets under management and may not have beenindependently verified The past performance information contained in this report is not necessarily indicative of future results and there is no assurance that the investment in question willachieve comparable results or that the Firm will be able to implement its investment strategy or achieve its investment objectives The actual realized value of currently unrealizedinvestments (if any) will depend on a variety of factors including future operating results the value of the assets and market conditions at the time of disposition any related transactioncosts and the timing and manner of sale all of which may differ from the assumptions and circumstances on which any current unrealized valuations are based

Neither PCA nor PCArsquos officers employees or agents make any representation or warranty express or implied in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained inthis document or any oral information provided in connection herewith or any data subsequently generated herefrom and accept no responsibility obligation or liability (whether direct orindirect in contract tort or otherwise) in relation to any of such information PCA and PCArsquos officers employees and agents expressly disclaim any and all liability that may be based on thisdocument and any errors therein or omissions therefrom Neither PCA nor any of PCArsquos officers employees or agents make any representation of warranty express or implied that anytransaction has been or may be effected on the terms or in the manner stated in this document or as to the achievement or reasonableness of future projections management targetsestimates prospects or returns if any Any views or terms contained herein are preliminary only and are based on financial economic market and other conditions prevailing as of thedate of this document and are therefore subject to change

The information contained in this report may include forward-looking statements Forward-looking statements include a number of risks uncertainties and other factors beyond the control ofthe Firm which may result in material differences in actual results performance or other expectations The opinions estimates and analyses reflect PCArsquos current judgment which maychange in the future

Any tables graphs or charts relating to past performance included in this report are intended only to illustrate investment performance for the historical periods shown Such tables graphsand charts are not intended to predict future performance and should not be used as the basis for an investment decision

All trademarks or product names mentioned herein are the property of their respective owners Indices are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index The index dataprovided is on an ldquoas isrdquo basis In no event shall the index providers or its affiliates have any liability of any kind in connection with the index data or the portfolio described herein Copyingor redistributing the index data is strictly prohibited

The Russell indices are either registered trademarks or trade names of Frank Russell Company in the US andor other countries

The MSCI indices are trademarks and service marks of MSCI or its subsidiaries

Standard and Poorrsquos (SampP) is a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc SampP indices including the SampP 500 are a registered trademark of The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc

CBOE not SampP calculates and disseminates the BXM Index The CBOE has a business relationship with Standard amp Poors on the BXM CBOE and Chicago Board Options Exchange areregistered trademarks of the CBOE and SPX and CBOE SampP 500 BuyWrite Index BXM are servicemarks of the CBOE The methodology of the CBOE SampP 500 BuyWrite Index is owned by CBOEand may be covered by one or more patents or pending patent applications

The Barclays Capital indices (formerly known as the Lehman indices) are trademarks of Barclays Capital Inc

The Citigroup indices are trademarks of Citicorp or its affiliates

The Merrill Lynch indices are trademarks of Merrill Lynch amp Co or its affiliates

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MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15x 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol 7030 Portfolio
1995 0219 0228 0265 1995 0219 0313 0265
1996 0311 0264 0146 1996 0311 0364 0146
1997 0154 014 0219 1997 0154 0175 0219
1998 0406 0209 0197 1998 0406 0269 0197
1999 007 0066 0182 1999 007 0053 0182
2000 0211 0087 -0056 2000 0211 0097 -0056
2001 0004 007 -0088 2001 0004 008 -0088
2002 0151 0112 -0138 2002 0151 0133 -0138
2003 0226 0213 0247 2003 0226 0317 0247
2004 0146 0042 0114 2004 0146 005 0114
2005 005 0063 0069 2005 005 0074 0069
2006 -008 0188 0151 2006 -008 025 0151
2007 -0009 0095 0075 2007 -0009 0112 0075
2008 0379 023 -0307 2008 0379 0344 -0307
2009 -0097 0009 0239 2009 -0097 0012 0239
2010 0099 005 0135 2010 0099 0072 0135
2011 0134 -0048 0002 2011 0134 -0073 0002
2012 -0172 -008 0135 2012 -0172 -0119 0135
2013 -0028 0075 0228 2013 -0028 011 0228
2014 0253 0158 0091 2014 0253 0231 0091
2015 0091 0036 -0002 2015 0091 0042 -0002
Return 110 101 80 Return 110 131 80
StDev 153 93 146 StDev 153 134 146
Corr to 7030 -023 005 100 Corr to 7030 -023 004 100
1 Year Correlation 3 Year Correlation
SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM
7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099
MLM Index 3X -054 -056 MLM Index 3X -023 -026
Credit Suisse Index -059 -055 080 Credit Suisse Index -021 -020 082
5 Year Correlation 10 Year Correlation
SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM
7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099
MLM Index 3X -031 -033 MLM Index 3X -036 -036
Credit Suisse Index -027 -027 076 Credit Suisse Index -021 -021 066
20 Year Correlation
SampP 500 7030 MLM
7030 Portfolio 098
MLM Index 3X -027 -026
Credit Suisse Index -018 -016 066
Correlation to date Correlation to date
SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
SampP 500 Index 1 099 -054 -059 SampP 500 Index 1 099 -023 -021
7030 Portfolio 099 1 -056 -055 7030 Portfolio 099 1 -026 -02
MLM Index 3X -054 -056 1 08 MLM Index 3X -023 -026 1 082
Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -059 -055 08 1 Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -021 -02 082 1
Correlation to date Correlation to date
SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
5 5 5 5 10 Years 10 Years 10 Years 10 Years
SampP 500 Index 1 099 -031 -027 SampP 500 Index 1 099 -036 -021
7030 Portfolio 099 1 -033 -027 7030 Portfolio 099 1 -036 -021
MLM Index 3X -031 -033 1 076 MLM Index 3X -036 -036 1 066
Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -027 -027 076 1 Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -021 -021 066 1
Correlation to date
SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
5 5 5 5
SampP 500 Index 1 098 -027 -018
7030 Portfolio 098 1 -026 -016
MLM Index 3X -027 -026 1 066
Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -018 -016 066 1
MLM 3x Credit Suisse 15 Vol 7030 SampP 500
Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio
Periods Ending 9302016
1 Year 85 124 07 24 162 01 125 105 12 154 125 12
3 Years 139 145 10 130 156 08 79 90 09 112 108 10
5 Years 33 129 03 46 138 03 120 92 13 164 111 15 SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
10 Years 58 163 03 79 144 05 62 124 04 72 153 04 Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date
20 Years 98 141 05 117 147 06 71 121 04 79 154 04 Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g) Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g) Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g) Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g)
1 Year 1543 1246 122 1252 1052 116 846 1244 066 24 162 01
Statistical Measures 3 Years 1116 1083 102 792 897 087 1392 1446 095 130 156 08
Largest Drawdown - period Mar-09 - May-09 Mar-11 - Nov-12 Nov-07 - Feb-09 Nov-07 - Feb-09 5 Years 1637 1112 146 12 915 13 329 1288 025 46 138 03
Largest Drawdown - -2509 -277 -4216 -5095 10 Years 724 1525 041 621 1239 043 58 1627 03 79 144 05
Largest Drawdown - of months 3 21 16 16 20 Years 791 1535 036 711 1212 039 977 1408 053 117 147 06
Recovery Period Jun-09 - Jul-11 Dec-12 - Nov-14 Mar-09 - Apr-11 Mar-09 - Mar-12
Recovery Duration 26 24 26 37 00237 01617
01298 0156
Crisis Period Returns 00464 01383
LTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98) 121 143 -88 -100 00787 01439
Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02) 113 127 -145 -206 01172 01466
Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09) 326 277 -309 -388
MLM Credit Suisse 7030
Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio
Periods Ending 9302016
1 Year 85 124 07 14 90 01 125 105 12
3 Years 139 145 10 90 103 09 79 90 09
5 Years 33 129 03 35 92 04 120 92 13
10 Years 58 163 03 58 97 05 62 124 04
20 Years 98 141 05 91 100 07 71 121 04
Statistical Measures
Largest Drawdown - period Mar-09 - May-09 Mar-11 - Nov-12 Nov-07 - Feb-09
Largest Drawdown - -2509 -1486 -4216
Largest Drawdown - of months 3 21 16
Recovery Period Jun-09 - Jul-11 Dec-12 - Nov-14 Mar-09 - Apr-11
Recovery Duration 26 24 26
Full - history semi-deviation 83 54 83
Full - history skewness 03 02 -08
Full- history kurtosis 47 -01 15
Crisis Period Returns
LTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98) 121 104 -88
Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02) 113 157 -145
Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09) 326 183 -309
SampP 500 Index MLM Index 3X woInt Credit Suisse Index 7030 Portfolio
Return Return Return Return
Total Total Total Total
Jan-73 -149 NA NA NA
Feb-73 -352 NA NA NA
Mar-73 009 NA NA NA
Apr-73 -384 NA NA NA
May-73 -164 NA NA NA
Jun-73 -04 NA NA NA
Jul-73 406 NA NA NA
Aug-73 -342 NA NA NA
Sep-73 427 NA NA NA
Oct-73 013 NA NA NA
Nov-73 -1112 NA NA NA
Dec-73 196 NA NA NA
Jan-74 -071 NA NA NA
Feb-74 -005 NA NA NA
Mar-74 -202 NA NA NA
Apr-74 -359 NA NA NA
May-74 -302 NA NA NA
Jun-74 -112 NA NA NA
Jul-74 -742 NA NA NA
Aug-74 -864 NA NA NA
Sep-74 -115 NA NA NA
Oct-74 168 NA NA NA
Nov-74 -49 NA NA NA
Dec-74 -158 NA NA NA
Jan-75 1273 NA NA NA
Feb-75 639 NA NA NA
Mar-75 255 NA NA NA
Apr-75 509 NA NA NA
May-75 476 NA NA NA
Jun-75 477 NA NA NA
Jul-75 -644 NA NA NA
Aug-75 -176 NA NA NA
Sep-75 -311 NA NA NA
Oct-75 654 NA NA NA
Nov-75 281 NA NA NA
Dec-75 -082 NA NA NA
Jan-76 1217 NA NA NA
Feb-76 -084 NA NA NA
Mar-76 338 NA NA NA
Apr-76 -08 NA NA NA
May-76 -112 NA NA NA
Jun-76 441 NA NA NA
Jul-76 -05 NA NA NA
Aug-76 -02 NA NA NA
Sep-76 258 NA NA NA
Oct-76 -191 NA NA NA
Nov-76 -045 NA NA NA
Dec-76 558 NA NA NA
Jan-77 -473 NA NA NA
Feb-77 -182 NA NA NA
Mar-77 -104 NA NA NA
Apr-77 038 NA NA NA
May-77 -198 NA NA NA
Jun-77 493 NA NA NA
Jul-77 -124 NA NA NA
Aug-77 -172 NA NA NA
Sep-77 015 NA NA NA
Oct-77 -394 NA NA NA
Nov-77 312 NA NA NA
Dec-77 071 NA NA NA
Jan-78 -573 NA NA NA
Feb-78 -202 NA NA NA
Mar-78 297 NA NA NA
Apr-78 901 NA NA NA
May-78 086 NA NA NA
Jun-78 -132 NA NA NA
Jul-78 584 NA NA NA
Aug-78 302 NA NA NA
Sep-78 -031 NA NA NA
Oct-78 -874 NA NA NA
Nov-78 213 NA NA NA
Dec-78 194 NA NA NA
Jan-79 443 NA NA NA
Feb-79 -321 NA NA NA
Mar-79 598 NA NA NA
Apr-79 061 NA NA NA
May-79 -218 NA NA NA
Jun-79 434 NA NA NA
Jul-79 133 NA NA NA
Aug-79 576 NA NA NA
Sep-79 044 NA NA NA
Oct-79 -639 NA NA NA
Nov-79 472 NA NA NA
Dec-79 22 NA NA NA
Jan-80 621 NA NA NA
Feb-80 -001 NA NA NA
Mar-80 -975 NA NA NA
Apr-80 462 NA NA NA
May-80 515 NA NA NA
Jun-80 316 NA NA NA
Jul-80 696 NA NA NA
Aug-80 101 NA NA NA
Sep-80 294 NA NA NA
Oct-80 202 NA NA NA
Nov-80 1065 NA NA NA
Dec-80 -301 NA NA NA
Jan-81 -42 NA NA NA
Feb-81 172 NA NA NA
Mar-81 399 NA NA NA
Apr-81 -194 NA NA NA
May-81 025 NA NA NA
Jun-81 -062 NA NA NA
Jul-81 021 NA NA NA
Aug-81 -578 NA NA NA
Sep-81 -492 NA NA NA
Oct-81 54 NA NA NA
Nov-81 412 NA NA NA
Dec-81 -256 NA NA NA
Jan-82 -13 NA NA NA
Feb-82 -559 NA NA NA
Mar-82 -052 NA NA NA
Apr-82 452 NA NA NA
May-82 -341 NA NA NA
Jun-82 -15 NA NA NA
Jul-82 -177 NA NA NA
Aug-82 1214 NA NA NA
Sep-82 124 NA NA NA
Oct-82 1151 NA NA NA
Nov-82 404 NA NA NA
Dec-82 193 NA NA NA
Jan-83 372 NA NA NA
Feb-83 229 NA NA NA
Mar-83 369 NA NA NA
Apr-83 788 NA NA NA
May-83 -087 NA NA NA
Jun-83 389 NA NA NA
Jul-83 -295 NA NA NA
Aug-83 15 NA NA NA
Sep-83 138 NA NA NA
Oct-83 -116 NA NA NA
Nov-83 211 NA NA NA
Dec-83 -052 NA NA NA
Jan-84 -056 NA NA NA
Feb-84 -352 NA NA NA
Mar-84 173 NA NA NA
Apr-84 092 NA NA NA
May-84 -556 NA NA NA
Jun-84 214 NA NA NA
Jul-84 -124 NA NA NA
Aug-84 1104 NA NA NA
Sep-84 002 NA NA NA
Oct-84 038 NA NA NA
Nov-84 -112 NA NA NA
Dec-84 264 NA NA NA
Jan-85 779 NA NA NA
Feb-85 123 NA NA NA
Mar-85 006 NA NA NA
Apr-85 -009 NA NA NA
May-85 578 NA NA NA
Jun-85 157 NA NA NA
Jul-85 -014 NA NA NA
Aug-85 -086 NA NA NA
Sep-85 -313 NA NA NA
Oct-85 462 NA NA NA
Nov-85 686 NA NA NA
Dec-85 484 NA NA NA
Jan-86 056 NA NA NA
Feb-86 747 NA NA NA
Mar-86 558 NA NA NA
Apr-86 -113 NA NA NA
May-86 532 NA NA NA
Jun-86 169 NA NA NA
Jul-86 -559 NA NA NA
Aug-86 741 NA NA NA
Sep-86 -827 NA NA NA
Oct-86 577 NA NA NA
Nov-86 243 NA NA NA
Dec-86 -255 NA NA NA
Jan-87 1347 NA NA NA
Feb-87 395 NA NA NA
Mar-87 289 NA NA NA
Apr-87 -089 NA NA NA
May-87 087 NA NA NA
Jun-87 505 NA NA NA
Jul-87 507 NA NA NA
Aug-87 373 NA NA NA
Sep-87 -219 NA NA NA
Oct-87 -2153 NA NA NA
Nov-87 -824 NA NA NA
Dec-87 761 NA NA NA
Jan-88 421 NA NA 349
Feb-88 466 NA NA 436
Mar-88 -309 NA NA 036
Apr-88 11 NA NA 066
May-88 086 NA NA -09
Jun-88 458 NA NA 252
Jul-88 -038 NA NA 02
Aug-88 -34 NA NA -286
Sep-88 425 NA NA 359
Oct-88 282 NA NA 344
Nov-88 -143 NA NA 034
Dec-88 174 NA NA 116
Jan-89 731 NA NA 398
Feb-89 -248 NA NA -089
Mar-89 232 NA NA 07
Apr-89 52 NA NA 323
May-89 405 NA NA 14
Jun-89 -057 NA NA 004
Jul-89 903 NA NA 742
Aug-89 195 NA NA -04
Sep-89 -041 NA NA 113
Oct-89 -232 NA NA -171
Nov-89 204 NA NA 23
Dec-89 24 NA NA 194
Jan-90 -671 NA NA -478
Feb-90 13 NA NA -08
Mar-90 264 NA NA -117
Apr-90 -249 NA NA -177
May-90 975 NA NA 786
Jun-90 -067 NA NA -001
Jul-90 -032 NA NA 019
Aug-90 -904 NA NA -722
Sep-90 -487 NA NA -53
Oct-90 -043 NA NA 295
Nov-90 646 NA NA 26
Dec-90 279 NA NA 235
Jan-91 435 NA NA 348
Feb-91 715 NA NA 62
Mar-91 242 NA NA 049
Apr-91 024 NA NA 058
May-91 431 NA NA 257
Jun-91 -458 NA NA -379
Jul-91 466 NA NA 377
Aug-91 237 NA NA 166
Sep-91 -167 NA NA 095
Oct-91 134 NA NA 152
Nov-91 -403 NA NA -26
Dec-91 1144 NA NA 76
Jan-92 -186 -50186134107 NA -101
Feb-92 13 -11806985257 NA 03
Mar-92 -194 -34682100213 NA -245
Apr-92 294 04856690806 NA 135
May-92 049 36691977834 NA 196
Jun-92 -149 3995994645 NA -144
Jul-92 409 58382478439 NA 241
Aug-92 -205 21392596519 NA 003
Sep-92 118 -10417441781 NA 069
Oct-92 035 -11426309261 NA -063
Nov-92 34 -24243841368 NA 231
Dec-92 123 03309287484 NA 157
Jan-93 084 12125566229 NA 109
Feb-93 136 59842293696 NA 136
Mar-93 211 -06484088187 NA 282
Apr-93 -242 09183032136 NA 027
May-93 268 -00124707027 NA 196
Jun-93 029 75565231659 NA 064
Jul-93 -04 34694235802 NA 068
Aug-93 379 26998187389 NA 356
Sep-93 -077 -35544940483 NA -032
Oct-93 207 12906000348 NA 154
Nov-93 -095 39231376084 NA -251
Dec-93 121 23140907663 NA 262
Jan-94 34 -16392143954 NA 357
Feb-94 -271 -5375365439 NA -19
Mar-94 -436 -17526970615 NA -389
Apr-94 128 -31042584129 NA 106
May-94 164 21687630069 NA 058
Jun-94 -245 -02802505425 NA -136
Jul-94 328 -09170406074 NA 249
Aug-94 41 03148132864 NA 3
Sep-94 -245 49091708791 NA -203
Oct-94 225 33710507687 NA 14
Nov-94 -364 -02736669026 NA -3 SampP 500 Index MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol 7030 Portfolio
Dec-94 148 11635880505 NA 095 Dec-94 100 100 100 100
Jan-95 259 1488846469 18462 078 Jan-95 103 101 102 101
Feb-95 39 18245801927 -04746 274 Feb-95 107 103 101 104
Mar-95 295 37741988604 70854 257 Mar-95 110 107 109 106
Apr-95 294 20196669281 31179 254 Apr-95 113 109 112 109
May-95 4 4438151788 78944 291 May-95 117 114 121 112
Jun-95 232 15287989065 -04753 152 Jun-95 120 116 120 114
Jul-95 332 -14769041128 -2252 32 Jul-95 124 114 117 117
Aug-95 025 -36439459991 -31269 016 Aug-95 125 110 114 118
Sep-95 422 05926567612 39491 274 Sep-95 130 111 118 121
Oct-95 -036 2635846499 25163 -064 Oct-95 129 114 121 120
Nov-95 439 27162162082 33589 332 Nov-95 135 117 125 124
Dec-95 193 4331305919 47021 198 Dec-95 138 122 131 126
Jan-96 34 19634168588 54269 207 Jan-96 142 124 138 129
Feb-96 093 -13857157749 -37777 042 Feb-96 144 123 133 130
Mar-96 096 3570816298 36706 074 Mar-96 145 127 138 131
Apr-96 147 47035792726 48573 151 Apr-96 147 133 145 133
May-96 258 04897246276 -23907 119 May-96 151 134 141 134
Jun-96 038 04231657395 28546 021 Jun-96 151 134 145 134
Jul-96 -442 -32825387444 -5322 -362 Jul-96 145 130 138 130
Aug-96 211 50232432929 29044 183 Aug-96 148 136 142 132
Sep-96 563 54206924649 82056 405 Sep-96 156 144 153 137
Oct-96 276 51159466491 83507 144 Oct-96 160 151 166 139
Nov-96 756 43728165918 864 527 Nov-96 173 158 180 147
Dec-96 -198 14093703517 -07113 -113 Dec-96 169 160 179 145
Jan-97 625 17011191838 -16167 314 Jan-97 180 162 176 150
Feb-97 078 -17477703643 -15622 041 Feb-97 181 160 173 150
Mar-97 -411 -0910181567 12022 -309 Mar-97 174 158 175 145
Apr-97 597 09232176853 15126 349 Apr-97 184 160 178 151
May-97 609 -06805906276 09263 543 May-97 195 159 180 159
Jun-97 448 14017438969 -08095 375 Jun-97 204 161 178 165
Jul-97 796 41579104051 60499 584 Jul-97 220 167 189 174
Aug-97 -56 -24491709033 -58848 -401 Aug-97 208 163 178 167
Sep-97 548 23206853381 65934 476 Sep-97 219 167 190 175
Oct-97 -334 3155194786 26194 -317 Oct-97 212 172 195 170
Nov-97 463 1734137994 34076 24 Nov-97 222 175 201 174
Dec-97 172 50839377232 45191 168 Dec-97 226 184 210 177
Jan-98 111 -0540706989 01984 101 Jan-98 228 183 211 178
Feb-98 721 40902523842 09547 561 Feb-98 245 191 213 189
Mar-98 512 4564059454 36725 385 Mar-98 257 200 221 196
Apr-98 101 10197007162 2729 086 Apr-98 260 202 227 197
May-98 -172 66464318242 49967 -174 May-98 255 215 238 194
Jun-98 406 14535097859 12227 237 Jun-98 266 218 241 199
Jul-98 -106 79600070571 25845 -106 143 Jul-98 263 235 247 197
Aug-98 -1446 85969949752 100188 -1191 Aug-98 225 256 272 173
Sep-98 641 -43471273323 13057 462 Sep-98 239 245 275 181
Oct-98 813 -21914686666 -48215 62 Oct-98 259 239 262 192
Nov-98 606 35427775078 -16838 49 Nov-98 274 248 258 202
Dec-98 576 46223079694 36184 48 Dec-98 290 259 267 211
Jan-99 418 11652083769 -13599 243 Jan-99 302 262 263 217
Feb-99 -311 08705260303 -29127 -306 Feb-99 293 264 256 210
Mar-99 4 -66775958823 -24295 326 Mar-99 305 247 250 217
Apr-99 387 22077437514 51823 383 Apr-99 316 252 263 225
May-99 -236 05593377297 -19638 -207 May-99 309 254 257 220
Jun-99 555 0821055256 43706 406 Jun-99 326 256 269 229
Jul-99 -312 -05417097185 00435 -19 Jul-99 316 254 269 225
Aug-99 -049 12651757883 01021 -075 Aug-99 314 258 269 223
Sep-99 -274 24672781685 05889 -147 Sep-99 306 264 271 220
Oct-99 633 -17330628613 -47866 486 Oct-99 325 259 258 231
Nov-99 203 37710155755 29817 248 Nov-99 332 269 265 236
Dec-99 589 30182108515 60293 568 Dec-99 351 277 281 250
Jan-00 -502 24897212667 -25282 -359 Jan-00 334 284 274 241
Feb-00 -189 -05713037029 10256 122 Feb-00 327 283 277 244
Mar-00 978 -24716293218 -3378 621 Mar-00 359 276 268 259
Apr-00 -301 03990582414 -22613 -331 1573 Apr-00 348 277 262 250
May-00 -205 24192880579 0877 -232 May-00 341 283 264 245
Jun-00 247 0878887186 -34187 3 Jun-00 350 286 255 252
Jul-00 -156 24260079771 12301 -165 Jul-00 344 293 258 248
Aug-00 621 75396102385 45179 559 Aug-00 366 315 270 262
Sep-00 -528 09222855204 04031 -385 Sep-00 346 318 271 252
Oct-00 -042 299852918 44133 -131 Oct-00 345 327 283 248
Nov-00 -788 5315579778 110553 -68 Nov-00 318 345 314 231
Dec-00 049 -25942802121 -17463 193 Dec-00 319 336 308 236
1-Jan 355 -00863561154 -04261 284 Jan-01 331 335 307 243
1-Feb -912 16209515233 74179 -716 Feb-01 300 341 330 225
1-Mar -633 48299554873 94097 -52 Mar-01 281 357 361 213
1-Apr 777 -43323517245 -65179 61 Apr-01 303 342 337 227
1-May 067 24991627761 11086 031 May-01 305 350 341 227
1-Jun -243 -01569851257 00543 -165 Jun-01 298 350 341 223
1-Jul -098 -21829671963 -05079 -093 Jul-01 295 342 340 221
1-Aug -626 -26070979092 17884 -404 Aug-01 276 333 346 212
1-Sep -808 10636654952 60561 -685 Sep-01 254 337 367 198
1-Oct 191 09408124501 22528 233 Oct-01 259 340 375 203
1-Nov 767 -16137664028 -837 519 Nov-01 279 334 344 213
1-Dec 088 07970479005 -2992 094 Dec-01 281 337 333 215
2-Jan -146 01132698972 -26759 -115 Jan-02 277 338 324 213
2-Feb -193 -02410246265 -26221 -106 Feb-02 272 337 316 210
2-Mar 376 -64656658879 -37678 312 Mar-02 282 315 304 217
2-Apr -606 01559405489 -06737 -3 Apr-02 265 315 302 210
2-May -074 19425675286 49554 -043 May-02 263 322 317 209
2-Jun -712 46154392532 59609 -498 Jun-02 244 336 336 199
2-Jul -78 -09755577412 44704 -592 Jul-02 225 333 351 187
2-Aug 066 36669673432 29178 074 Aug-02 227 345 361 189
2-Sep -1087 42995914132 68228 -728 Sep-02 202 360 386 175
2-Oct 88 -18586716944 -39428 521 Oct-02 220 354 370 184
2-Nov 589 -06691963741 -43217 423 Nov-02 233 351 354 192
2-Dec -587 10504712371 65168 -333 Dec-02 219 388 377 185
3-Jan -262 79413180181 78029 -186 Jan-03 213 419 407 182
3-Feb -15 5839796145 24675 -082 Feb-03 210 443 417 180
3-Mar 097 -4822187841 -49263 039 Mar-03 212 422 396 181
3-Apr 824 08044165566 01717 619 Apr-03 230 425 397 192
3-May 527 86017617168 75621 492 May-03 242 462 427 202
3-Jun 128 -16232843116 -23723 11 Jun-03 245 454 417 204
3-Jul 176 -58470688666 -38819 084 Jul-03 249 428 401 206
3-Aug 195 -01285241001 24459 191 Aug-03 254 427 411 210
3-Sep -106 62607424571 26964 031 Sep-03 251 454 422 210
3-Oct 566 09634730462 79884 431 Oct-03 266 458 455 219
3-Nov 088 23264834944 02951 12 Nov-03 268 469 457 222
3-Dec 524 14110879536 8856 41 Dec-03 282 476 497 231
4-Jan 184 19478633231 26613 172 Jan-04 287 485 510 235
4-Feb 139 52879779623 57235 144 Feb-04 291 511 540 239
4-Mar -151 2268957551 -03792 -05 Mar-04 287 522 538 237
4-Apr -157 -56830338449 -105019 -233 Apr-04 282 493 481 232
4-May 137 -16566072328 -32214 087 May-04 286 484 466 234
4-Jun 194 -17215338796 -23435 168 Jun-04 292 476 455 238
4-Jul -331 -06069797015 -19673 -258 Jul-04 282 473 446 232
4-Aug 04 -05707405134 -31134 082 Aug-04 283 470 432 234
4-Sep 108 70162697766 75979 145 Sep-04 286 503 465 237
4-Oct 153 34033420009 3203 17 Oct-04 291 521 480 241
4-Nov 405 45583596598 79681 368 Nov-04 302 544 518 250
4-Dec 34 01240939032 07905 307 Dec-04 313 545 522 257
5-Jan -244 16755564551 -35158 -181 Jan-05 305 554 504 253
5-Feb 21 -20025648058 07235 196 Feb-05 311 543 507 258
5-Mar -177 -10751895082 -32131 -158 Mar-05 306 537 491 254
5-Apr -19 -2390258099 -3307 -143 Apr-05 300 524 475 250
5-May 318 08685813036 14103 272 May-05 310 529 481 257
5-Jun 014 2223478206 2443 083 Jun-05 310 541 493 259
5-Jul 372 -21671781188 16173 293 Jul-05 322 529 501 267
5-Aug -091 49286219575 23044 002 Aug-05 319 555 513 267
5-Sep 081 37034231946 44919 108 Sep-05 321 576 536 270
5-Oct -167 -41709576663 -50465 -191 Oct-05 316 552 509 264
5-Nov 378 22186228209 731 307 Nov-05 328 564 546 272
5-Dec 003 15087373486 26914 097 Dec-05 328 572 561 275
6-Jan 265 05184116785 49735 32 Jan-06 337 575 588 284
6-Feb 027 -12693666599 -08661 013 Feb-06 338 568 583 284
6-Mar 125 20763323239 66529 136 Mar-06 342 580 622 288
6-Apr 134 -11401031738 110633 149 Apr-06 346 573 691 292
6-May -288 -38328436628 -15079 -283 May-06 336 551 681 284
6-Jun 014 -17992981531 -41286 014 Jun-06 337 541 652 285
6-Jul 062 -32543371611 -14002 038 Jul-06 339 524 643 286
6-Aug 238 -01076272465 29098 232 Aug-06 347 523 662 292
6-Sep 258 07974403785 -03827 16 Sep-06 356 527 659 297
6-Oct 326 -29512764216 -00218 309 Oct-06 368 512 659 306
6-Nov 19 03172013357 58364 222 Nov-06 375 513 698 313
6-Dec 14 25165243518 03787 117 Dec-06 380 526 700 317
7-Jan 151 -10891073316 07036 127 Jan-07 386 520 705 321
7-Feb -196 -0242828355 -13437 -066 Feb-07 378 519 696 318
7-Mar 112 -24787732727 -10187 115 Mar-07 382 506 689 322
7-Apr 443 02879881174 68079 345 Apr-07 399 508 736 333
7-May 349 04724656451 33768 267 May-07 413 510 761 342
7-Jun -166 06726351642 29473 -111 Jun-07 406 514 783 338
7-Jul -31 -10308231752 -62002 -209 Jul-07 394 508 734 331
7-Aug 15 -48378452877 -4152 085 Aug-07 400 484 704 334
7-Sep 374 50760632525 70341 364 Sep-07 415 508 753 346
7-Oct 159 36478459472 64209 235 2672 Oct-07 421 527 802 354
7-Nov -418 -09519733939 -29049 -338 Nov-07 404 522 779 342
7-Dec -069 -00407441673 00631 -06 Dec-07 401 522 779 340
8-Jan -6 38885050267 87377 -527 Jan-08 377 542 847 322
8-Feb -325 79938792923 97517 -138 Feb-08 364 585 930 318
8-Mar -043 -01164410281 -17484 -069 Mar-08 363 585 913 316
8-Apr 487 -11768609649 -73215 412 Apr-08 381 578 847 329
8-May 13 26727320318 02045 143 May-08 385 593 848 334
8-Jun -843 38796643349 38908 -664 Jun-08 353 616 881 311
8-Jul -084 -111000927524 -63133 -116 Jul-08 350 548 826 308
8-Aug 145 -81389596386 09693 032 Aug-08 355 503 834 309
8-Sep -891 2350077992 4926 -863 Sep-08 323 515 875 282
8-Oct -1679 231353875038 118043 -1488 Oct-08 269 634 978 240
8-Nov -718 91409930423 52566 -464 Nov-08 250 692 1029 229
8-Dec 106 39012647249 17001 298 Dec-08 252 719 1047 236
9-Jan -843 36085657209 -01782 -629 Jan-09 231 745 1045 221
9-Feb -1065 17480110926 0841 -723 Feb-09 207 758 1054 205
9-Mar 876 -40891209192 -17399 626 Mar-09 225 727 1035 218
9-Apr 957 -52452980511 -24793 785 Apr-09 246 689 1010 235
9-May 559 -175764056892 24393 525 May-09 260 568 1034 247
9-Jun 02 26344903362 -3873 018 Jun-09 260 583 994 248
9-Jul 756 29911557926 15775 638 Jul-09 280 600 1010 264
9-Aug 361 66647387555 02737 292 Aug-09 290 640 1013 271
9-Sep 373 19908108013 31657 353 Sep-09 301 653 1045 281
9-Oct -186 -1135758063 -18836 -156 Oct-09 295 646 1025 276
9-Nov 6 429598654 65618 406 Nov-09 313 673 1092 288
9-Dec 193 -3538041182 -30108 161 Dec-09 319 649 1060 292
10-Jan -36 -22840646395 -587 -256 Jan-10 308 635 997 285
10-Feb 31 13842186803 10589 206 Feb-10 317 643 1008 291
10-Mar 603 38205356429 32922 477 Mar-10 336 668 1041 304
10-Apr 158 14253968325 03791 14 Apr-10 342 678 1045 309
10-May -799 -05569215148 17471 -621 May-10 314 674 1063 290
10-Jun -523 -23229482293 07896 -318 Jun-10 298 658 1072 280
10-Jul 701 -52850060701 -35575 569 Jul-10 319 623 1034 296
10-Aug -451 76993453056 43121 -284 Aug-10 305 671 1078 288
10-Sep 892 05035470246 12552 702 Sep-10 332 675 1092 308
10-Oct 38 35726262618 52271 293 Oct-10 344 699 1149 317
10-Nov 001 -46572458071 -67101 -044 Nov-10 344 666 1072 316
10-Dec 668 71205616987 60114 502 Dec-10 367 714 1136 332
11-Jan 237 14260916813 02413 151 Jan-11 376 724 1139 337
11-Feb 343 -08196213636 14822 271 Feb-11 389 718 1156 346
11-Mar 004 -25144800567 -53504 026 Mar-11 389 700 1094 347
11-Apr 296 51621261523 44419 292 Apr-11 401 736 1142 357
11-May -113 -18535770592 -51957 -088 May-11 396 722 1083 354
11-Jun -167 08676483656 -46402 -14 Jun-11 389 729 1033 349
11-Jul -203 93387304437 48149 -126 Jul-11 382 797 1083 344
11-Aug -543 3189583693 00543 -469 Aug-11 361 822 1083 328
11-Sep -703 -41599527992 34989 -619 Sep-11 335 788 1121 308
11-Oct 1093 -13852548076 -6243 834 Oct-11 372 777 1051 333
11-Nov -022 39284953285 -00578 -096 Nov-11 371 808 1050 330
11-Dec 102 01889893545 02082 061 Dec-11 375 809 1053 332
12-Jan 448 -01521632453 -04526 426 Jan-12 392 808 1048 346
12-Feb 432 -22430032837 14221 342 Feb-12 409 790 1063 358
12-Mar 329 -12258940456 -21399 158 Mar-12 422 780 1040 364
12-Apr -063 13756177692 -18216 -038 Apr-12 420 791 1021 363
12-May -601 43616823461 38067 -528 May-12 394 825 1060 343
12-Jun 412 -61107318666 -83896 324 Jun-12 411 775 971 355
12-Jul 139 -2662867044 20145 115 Jul-12 416 754 991 359
12-Aug 225 -29540623033 -22929 186 Aug-12 426 732 968 365
12-Sep 258 -47724948882 -20234 22 Sep-12 437 697 948 373
12-Oct -185 -18050840884 -36659 -098 Oct-12 429 684 914 370
12-Nov 058 -03984415062 -0944 079 Nov-12 431 682 905 373
12-Dec 091 -17220762656 24366 124 Dec-12 435 670 927 377
13-Jan 518 -04335912154 32593 387 Jan-13 458 667 957 392
13-Feb 136 -29598734504 01523 08 Feb-13 464 647 959 395
13-Mar 375 -04786782014 2166 255 Mar-13 481 644 979 405
13-Apr 193 11854540053 29259 181 Apr-13 490 652 1008 412
13-May 234 -43222576245 -06784 082 May-13 502 624 1001 416
13-Jun -134 06875789801 10553 -177 Jun-13 495 628 1012 408
13-Jul 509 06412005306 -19554 423 Jul-13 520 632 992 426
13-Aug -29 11512128942 -11474 -214 Aug-13 505 639 981 417
13-Sep 314 -19925877399 -05148 361 Sep-13 521 626 976 432
13-Oct 46 -07538953205 -06933 349 Oct-13 545 622 969 447
13-Nov 305 27584740935 46402 189 Nov-13 562 639 1014 455
13-Dec 253 19377872096 15067 18 Dec-13 576 651 1029 463
14-Jan -346 -08961192857 -51141 -251 Jan-14 556 645 976 452
14-Feb 457 -00139276726 -05865 399 Feb-14 581 645 971 470
14-Mar 084 -34260446582 -18865 037 Mar-14 586 623 952 471
14-Apr 074 22210329784 03199 043 Apr-14 591 637 955 473
14-May 235 -07288421342 07134 197 May-14 605 632 962 483
14-Jun 207 05841054246 00135 195 Jun-14 617 636 962 492
14-Jul -138 -00888949644 03097 -153 Jul-14 609 636 965 485
14-Aug 4 18791535569 48657 313 Aug-14 633 648 1012 500
14-Sep -14 69028951277 63915 -221 Sep-14 624 692 1077 489
14-Oct 244 21563513841 15927 194 Oct-14 639 707 1094 498
14-Nov 269 72204527611 104647 19 Nov-14 657 758 1209 508 LTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98)
14-Dec -025 76468641712 47745 -044 Dec-14 655 816 1266 506 Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02)
15-Jan -3 54094515689 113573 -159 Jan-15 635 860 1410 497 Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09)
15-Feb 575 -50846010492 -16603 45 Feb-15 672 817 1387 520
15-Mar -158 65245129876 57568 -083 Mar-15 661 870 1467 516
15-Apr 096 -88441663253 -51219 09 Apr-15 667 793 1392 520
15-May 129 40875447394 08884 073 May-15 676 825 1404 524
15-Jun -194 -66047202646 -62159 -171 Jun-15 663 771 1317 515
15-Jul 21 80060563143 34205 126 Jul-15 677 833 1362 522
15-Aug -603 -10026780942 -24342 -522 Aug-15 636 824 1329 494
15-Sep -247 36089130828 34355 -247 Sep-15 620 854 1374 482
15-Oct 844 -16993598229 -58073 637 Oct-15 673 839 1294 513
15-Nov 03 48441920313 30487 01 Nov-15 675 880 1334 513
15-Dec -158 11998205926 -10345 -173 Dec-15 664 891 1320 504
16-Jan -496 31480723033 48626 -453 Jan-16 631 919 1384 482
16-Feb -013 33572073647 44379 -002 Feb-16 630 950 1446 481
16-Mar 678 -61786855584 -39621 601 Mar-16 673 891 1388 510
16-Apr 039 -31282642584 09914 082 Apr-16 676 863 1402 515
16-May 18 -08911812015 -5253 107 May-16 688 855 1328 520
16-Jun 026 65324823204 94059 03 Jun-16 690 911 1453 522
16-Jul 369 21567955023 02767 348 Jul-16 715 931 1457 540
16-Aug 014 -15149 -44038 024 Aug-16 716 917 1393 541
16-Sep 002 10335 0967 025 Sep-16 716 926 1407 542
-41363
Correllation 100 -022 -015 097
skew -04 02 01 -08
Kurt 198 469 -028 186

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 7

Systematic Trend Following Benchmark Review

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 8

bull Momentum and Trend Following are somewhat interchangeable terms

bull That which has done well recently will continue to do well

bull That which has done poorly recently will continue to do poorly

bull Buy what is going up sell what is going down

Ex if SampP 500 has a positive 1-year return buygo long Ex if oil has a negative 1-year return sellshort

bull This results in a volatile yet low correlation return vs risky assets (eg equities) over a full market cycle

Often a positive correlation during strong (extended) bull markets and a negative correlation during major bear markets

Description ndash What is Systematic Trend Following

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 9

bull Trend horizon or lookback period = the length of time that the signal is ldquolooking backrdquo to see if the total return index is higher (lower) today than 30 days 3 months 1 year ago etc

bull Moving average (MA) crossover is a methodology to identify a trend - if short term MA is above longer term MA = Uptrend (buy market)- if short term MA is below longer term MA = Downtrend (sell market)

bull The trend horizon of a moving average is half of its moving average ndash this makes sense

Trend Following Terminology

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Example The average lookback of an equally weighted moving average is total days in the moving average divided by two

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 10

bull Manage long and short positions according to systematic signals

bull Implemented in futures and forwards (currency) markets (see Appendix)

bull Investable universe includes liquid markets across the globe Equities = typically broad indices such as SampP 500 Nikkei 225 etc Fixed Income = typically sovereign bondsrates such as US 10-year Treasury Currencies = typically major currencies such as JPY GBP EUR AUD CAD CHF Commodities = energy metals and agriculture components

bull Strategy implementation volatility is customizable (range anywhere from roughly 5-30 (capable of offsetting equity asymp 18-20)

bull Systematic = rules-based implementation

bull Related terms = managed futures CTAs (commodity trading advisors)

How do systematic trend following managers invest

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 11

Basic Trend Following Example

bull Single Asset Example 21 day average price gt 252 day average price = long position 21 day average price lt 252 day average price = short position

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 12

bull The RISICrsquos Trend Following allocation and corresponding managers should be compiled based on assessing the following criteria

Trend Horizons Short asymp lt1 month Medium asymp 1-11 months Long asymp12+ months

Systematic implementation = quantitatively-oriented firmso Graduate (PhD Masters) backgrounds in mathematics physics computer scienceo Straight forward strategy design (ie humility)

Focus on global futures markets (ie utilize forwards on limited basis)

Strong focus on risk management and diversification

Target gt15 annual standard deviationo Required in order to meaningfully impact portfolio

RISIC Mandate ndash Trend Following Allocation

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 13

Why medium-term trends

o Trend Horizons Short asymp lt1 month | Medium asymp 1-11 months | Long asymp12+ months

o Medium to long-term trends provide most robust return patterns - whyo Short term trends are too short (risk getting whipsawed in choppy markets)o Long term trends are too long (longer time to turn lower hit ratios)

o The average of all trend horizons traded is the horizon of the strategy

Using a larger number of moving average signals reduces the dependency on individual data points and leads to an increased robustness of the strategy vs more concentrated strategies shorter drawdown periods

What length of trend is best How many

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 14

bull Benchmarking Trend Following strategies is imperfectbull Primarily due to different volatility targets markets traded and trend horizons (lookback)

bull Benchmark characteristicsbull Construction based on consistently applied tradingrisk-management rulesbull Inclusive of markets traded by managers (rates currency commodities equities)bull Broad scalable investible published available at low cost as a simple option bull Comparable to the strategies run by managers that will be sourced

bull Institutional investors track several major benchmarks bull MLM 3X IndexTM (Investable rules-based)bull Credit Suisse Managed Futures Liquid IndexTM 15 Target Volatility (Investable rules-based)bull Societe Generale Trend IndexTM (Uninvestable 10 largest trend managers)

Trend Following Benchmarks

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 15

Investable Trend Following Benchmark Comparisons

Source Mount Lucas Management Credit Suisse

Several distinctions between indices can produce different performance behaviors

Selected Investable STF Benchmark Characteristics

MLM Index 3X trade (with interest on cash)

Credit Suisse Managed Futures Liquid Indextrade

15 Target VolBasic trend signal Time-series momentum Moving Average Crossover

of look-back periods utilized 1 16Range of look-back periods only 12-months 1-month to 9-months

Average look-back period 12-months 5 monthsMarkets traded

Number of markets 22 31

Major market segmentsFixed Income (5)

Currencies (6) Commodities (11)

Fixed Income (4) Currencies (5)

Commodities (17) (in 4 aggregated contracts)

Equities (5)Contracts traded 22 18Trading Frequency Monthly Daily

Volatility Framework

Leveraged to set volatility at 3-times non-levered index volatility Volatility is not

bounded but results from construction

Leveraged to target volatility at an expected forward-looking standard deviation of 15

(within a range of variation)SampP 500

1995-2016 Volatility

Index Volatility 1995-2016 141 147 149Inclusion of return on cash Yes YesYear of Inception Index 1970 1995

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 16

The Credit Suisse MF Liquid Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLMtrade 3x Index

Several years where indices diverge particularly in more recent calendar years but both provided major offset in severe down markets-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Annu

al R

etur

ns -

Calendar Year Returns

MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol 7030 Portfolio

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 17

The Credit Suisse MF Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLM 3x Index

CSMF IndexTM

15 volhas produced a similar but more consistent return pattern versus MLM 3X IndexTM

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

Growth of $1 ndash Index Comparisons

MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol

SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio

Returns to systematic trend following are episodic with long periods of little going on

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 18

The Credit Suisse MF Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLM 3x Index

Comparative Performance Statistics

MLM 3x and Credit Suisse 15 Vol exhibit similar statistical characteristics

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Periods Ending 93020161 Year 85 124 07 24 162 01 125 105 12 154 125 12

3 Years 139 145 10 130 156 08 79 90 09 112 108 105 Years 33 129 03 46 138 03 120 92 13 164 111 15

10 Years 58 163 03 79 144 05 62 124 04 72 153 0420 Years 98 141 05 117 147 06 71 121 04 79 154 04

Statistical MeasuresLargest Drawdown - period

Largest Drawdown - -5095Largest Drawdown - of months 16

Recovery PeriodRecovery Duration 37

Crisis Period ReturnsLTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98) -100

Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02) -206Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09) -388

SampP 500

Nov-07 - Feb-09

Mar-09 - Mar-12

113 127 -145

Jun-09 - Jul-11 Dec-12 - Nov-14 Mar-09 - Apr-1126 24

326 277 -309

121 143 -88

26

-2509 -277 -42163 21 16

MLM 3x Credit Suisse 15 Vol 7030

Mar-09 - May-09 Mar-11 - Nov-12 Nov-07 - Feb-09

Data

Growth of $1 - Selected Indices

SampP 500 Index3466934700347313475934790348203485134881349123494334973350043503435065350963512535156351863521735247352783530935339353703540035431354623549035521355513558235612356433567435704357353576535796358273585535886359163594735977360083603936069361003613036161361923622036251362813631236342363733640436434364653649536526365573658636617366473667836708367393677036800368313686136892369233695136982370123704337073371043713537165371963722637257372883731637347373773740837438374693750037530375613759137622376533768137712377423777337803378343786537895379263795637987380183804738078381083813938169382003823138261382923832238353383843841238443384733850438534385653859638626386573868738718387493877738808388383886938899389303896138991390223905239083391143914239173392033923439264392953932639356393873941739448394793950839539395693960039630396613969239722397533978339814398453987339904399343996539995400264005740087401184014840179402104023840269402994033040360403914042240452404834051340544405754060340634406644069540725407564078740817408484087840909409404096941000410304106141091411224115341183412144124441275413064133441365413954142641456414874151841548415794160941640416714169941730417604179141821418524188341913419444197442005420364206442095421254215642186422174224842278423094233942370424014243042461424914252242552425834261411025910659101109735444795000011129616668719730211748013354685194120205672645138931241965009769575412450699222939992129761187301480581292940470271952513497005569168912137574977766538731422525270106010514357547551179966144953800076712951470846209378406315087940415803691151452745893837461447585345253298514781293960381431561348081035090416044412880716591725737049449876516915674558707691797290421862691918113092871532211736864475451223718405552846356619195264510146997352040123602015828222025174407362882207917646405505612193115334285272921198652821201449221801504468230752256164903450843522812083338791482244568345475183512570902447635128825968685623562435255220242308371642655821841460915226276701299414293224770902915189862391787177920535525862394754854749274296558769989482900960405551408930222205505034578292822949138280023045358671038112431632140516072873308856219998935533259977402088765131582661071435956314279060321859173056678140690402232501658669961042331614423409612513511465129484386633351895799842701327215449692256753592171206721594134840468533992741341262389290458933496915703059332534423638180916072365613461119509613463090703723995334485457227683547317680031981420853192366641381297733056956571503342300421621321822428140493269215101303270095962331173053020056052787829788316686907052949639118337536127649917095296064254158037939961412590124564646146627887871187545059281332844539954552772253850096712227187493507898459282097432637954442650023282200944263041310991265712443127696486875822525637361608997226743065681956152020960944423275221988055075325237232831515192618932191643052508121921342220045324092102208674464422621226000986067275229750234673192224185807204046941244953855362587424926504321696896254125711559699925143197901716707265663029029538712680008636849986528204410894209262872337205466271291226269262225212868287525963656228232554118060267286193401094776962917455530760156628208877526919953283217130370276322862758753782752629065589627156293024274600705612312709993712960313050798698663641131148654713355772305973235249293743001597437795571630970482363174709310138410384831563216755592511472831874831166196183321330172986423731596395909755043279073967514378332800576897046323336697921848180483376070062371705534182709381513519346407576872258013364310386583369433690204211245862338990834773555873470588166411665135601293411050863367618955762511183746037159219988637984816794490683385583875280874937802643132536975382260327356213913991944598580941941312634650714166406268449155123173936741272313143239957923913978401414523502683611964211144263762814340351184335375292400727611634612043766839549365352836444172640109791362874626977573238054662131138102385493727388428953529966061695843935003143467775993551068904805874132346686653876708269156779646908124983132286826009252479534890663612311955100993806420657318827379658224668999566581152461698228251029425993071592102619260450577352868252801406410007451229025371814087202301080181827526562954800904455345831320889587226666319253827562601433077606897703477631730127115322853364345378037681734175020350106773314444362241332432979989220961107431888864653504814304506768576317473316687723333249734427218568199134344306612900559553673062946423169376011453825339853889086466915490138906421015022561400580510770672323960539509989637438943985001728101381534221061930223608169128582674335451483884331213721163310728886371297675144528233750849114310024239188871546311134088183079711177142226843030336747419608139192456253943896900269896410638545256101574163464210351613742571421550845248436697642268570534286187358866019543110472455474422435027777548192424575622164251887746378506256857133481177002414892834904637185615003550194056957583948495214565943523245204209873500485850532877871689719521196102368607855451711230775638156179884233142952576012353042414745560823256271471758149528790830782586379848326737555907190592043554660460095709565786617116196907537966085999933902138963294399312582256240827772220609663931039698627927656507846665210166548665770485471663522057973709076671745763071973566611321800154363466747904894358454676089528674956696629733918186625367689583304685437636079014314129056203678626605700767272691026912224674745090999929526640841185621305963114554628144894630325057071283167306109594071613675686034214884936878483828307528568963678862611273715084386126416237160855042669932271622872136784661MLM Index 3X 34669347003473134759347903482034851348813491234943349733500435034350653509635125351563518635217352473527835309353393537035400354313546235490355213555135582356123564335674357043573535765357963582735855358863591635947359773600836039360693610036130361613619236220362513628136312363423637336404364343646536495365263655736586366173664736678367083673936770368003683136861368923692336951369823701237043370733710437135371653719637226372573728837316373473737737408374383746937500375303756137591376223765337681377123774237773378033783437865378953792637956379873801838047380783810838139381693820038231382613829238322383533838438412384433847338504385343856538596386263865738687387183874938777388083883838869388993893038961389913902239052390833911439142391733920339234392643929539326393563938739417394483947939508395393956939600396303966139692397223975339783398143984539873399043993439965399954002640057400874011840148401794021040238402694029940330403604039140422404524048340513405444057540603406344066440695407254075640787408174084840878409094094040969410004103041061410914112241153411834121441244412754130641334413654139541426414564148741518415484157941609416404167141699417304176041791418214185241883419134194441974420054203642064420954212542156421864221742248422784230942339423704240142430424614249142522425524258342614110148884646900895103340591859474421072408712997243110940677971075865114262418660692781160092612677171142959157168208311013103426890634110783733289700331137038224450235111679226409959909121850894347440231242433353496411812252167585248812126896699822459641328653866929275813351606121318145134081055440927281296797928471894713619392434367088143576578138179231509218792763344715752141625393705159741476392170381624588692915244715961946131990337158166634405606991596268567466747615854045132050956160762782421028591674471548787969116334608788312481167136836594916961724103293485745617540016237536971184317397396999281833207803473638519081906293617161199528158418133362015627484786143521495947913924032218083936204276442354434329164940125568449301383946244569562533616392392098972026799324768457163719559259133315331014382621527584284674826443486642972855246776974677741692522251779160873425363596849993599255718459950524222543332082009850425755097037285197263905469237608912593318215612296269111264944554352772336103456553228413595450075206282512675271448142755300091516830227662953436071924283321999650090952858120804002444629274590427040774314817804441657153177213234675698932724829006272378344643433993104513357024175828066833541251801571748340849392335919133573122662643302134183224213506169350375186287367593498251493609266634218858110597834333267389762584413368122399944071733998101148189912334494512142795573371605936289772133754249508694474336728934548908533149571666931522831544831262756059321576109118041663364182590872654433313630471808207345352304220459553602010422381642353506087423034153511404375039457388026730482139434188411671450271744330063747749886421923848037816734253178733277496646190270333054864454404709212399464278353529314546427285481394055114540367249408701545841124640575002469076108389668847569518484822714849610768837257251060571175497652219113860765338492514839465369294843558030123659847601745376581057473128124445944394704277905596145950343427344960032520567863524614445442972190172910554497265868140495541039832423297543007691886491815371693301544380252432959673518953528883825581519765406434421783125752892673579868639554995535038222757554936841166908551543447906696125637801167088788657228607789353605575252875755654567950807540961575797433537416528573133681365925715511663633801610754124923718312337523635162123404735230715880167218252724277206795183511682380451475985133054437969212552622290028893799520491768101300335192278665029281450635738492353615078156340236386551021488843485043513646773187677665083519832107603248375870074608462508314598385507925268571318619042852184159214284254521628972131248554191254093339198585232375325283725845509247309335557767157307764609593111186249949546161219094094592654773180599687912503152135379287295149766029792115163411843563236063692083157713540857190831538127088974503174200586004758054979499215967270571947536747268892087788668714567833349511720355827928642302366600225106747576396402285420570113652974281025352986455580729791857567329116090210022649469842354643846346355313413052864342027491780147668002375855000886775240605615865267375078330068803658099901409815496233192816727965167131078552540018674691151011573536987953442583287466625072738788234713691521499241957238694169177803971793642853250548699884060217257537360129583255957972237039097739091728638025868266767966835670147050482209445615305849787895714812564137769813515439796780750502764271417809031126182080138078000781649011678968109588554389780000442351743847907302670362232982521940949887469774792464073246567541607708880763873188239184893966696953342110148546843727482284168568164592314229058669907460484101416670028005841815364726036177634292644162067518287266517983125485561662362591028781749627913830961134966319400177769446392149927453023662647807316842243621755084290590616389060372158093465128667668604236454503711708577364536047495606406623250136877504976370927279553024363244932772003528636143498551355266355779990150757647521485590334586922192146698701170714589328632549758205028463395178161839371290312886033501192088568816590408878332148698689561611674479293629886653179825347924837850757708360031927344283254956769909807824201775560706285394650126758993839434877515595628800987149600684889065832057726926918696888484690189495394480839779789087039133391421863001611292771298553107031643975291118372363297819930836093202313829167348572263920392620931197582674Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol3466934700347313475934790348203485134881349123494334973350043503435065350963512535156351863521735247352783530935339353703540035431354623549035521355513558235612356433567435704357353576535796358273585535886359163594735977360083603936069361003613036161361923622036251362813631236342363733640436434364653649536526365573658636617366473667836708367393677036800368313686136892369233695136982370123704337073371043713537165371963722637257372883731637347373773740837438374693750037530375613759137622376533768137712377423777337803378343786537895379263795637987380183804738078381083813938169382003823138261382923832238353383843841238443384733850438534385653859638626386573868738718387493877738808388383886938899389303896138991390223905239083391143914239173392033923439264392953932639356393873941739448394793950839539395693960039630396613969239722397533978339814398453987339904399343996539995400264005740087401184014840179402104023840269402994033040360403914042240452404834051340544405754060340634406644069540725407564078740817408484087840909409404096941000410304106141091411224115341183412144124441275413064133441365413954142641456414874151841548415794160941640416714169941730417604179141821418524188341913419444197442005420364206442095421254215642186422174224842278423094233942370424014243042461424914252242552425834261411018462101362837934799991085448004538323111929118787182351207652511407176612019125390204581117484546864171731138109225682759411830542971141973121282349239248191253561020678453113125047134317747138373303172500361331459748985528213803323105317908144737919185125151412776697511663614531058211188315137577152931888721415729437616425115318985323494783165982278309038621803231471549395617904050860922647176145960706541091733942085083835175478753683071291781330453112814217978309170999982178327747582607391891163979836075817798727619506824189722689263713871946922853862876201326619703110722104247709741140121084225371972662212855164715988862206722706401835322669441690595415238021656835493992409319476336215824715883382021251271921183062991962754716579502454626218979196217438257775040245115282671023723013445526347004714041855255795955077359592495813923487551426251544884444464257360170460037412686083540701638126872519870418432268999567132061262705837055829019925763194593147083265313757663309472813103200541033527419823254249551277010409615451362676529979786414226160056073535038263894797652999412548730262056363225800821930099183269664772640791342707517913393063628270088014648396313954310549318153084717264241954307157328397901933299419518611299136098849970540673374596302831080134120070774442652341385979728731753396520803376895345726418142448733666639557515736237492416134674511343543009042022533332642022114852532434638542450811315841698852292073039414153229354430189376200790483316853805490444573357411439819244935075011608249249360984302969547423856135399925536837040956933772726354401578979658723774972210786050840695295174214756416994515826385033964521149932298139713282327467319427164404503527264170307833354900940084206535718971410646261433761244217189272270611745540752200966779456751429607118284972013362131246351043335537376455539648008468581965376016632204691248114327415071871465643724717227545473136402847931445785433903947054319063502047815646472216278699063479607213661057945178227960527846352191618525558194503566656014366215072099607706301949091279752110903474678311307085914813726995314497449313263458100307501108068680081651265560301474542535683580046564785086503081795148954583264570743744560523185534007515884008061665413858330466678433295622111342960827866909373871666130868051874230552771652422845510701696432876208278608866200600401871004659472507041330465932874203479539697809804734914257004524104654454705380793625480346959025919015347688813432197833827357071618484301576055052128972793782966226803700147344207548094170970392760506973007753442576737939978018203711477063777852829118623665779019542537975168470879331063159292969340707904458913438647549674528465612369693250484829245469892748812978175263532882565884241246206833661953571965958747281414049210197798367540078193102939236528189951046893064884057110450275014424337105381618272956461035480834966252810098081586249346103444040903827289943765319962205110100628217884611012827363731696104489043958535041025208883265320710924810397674245105958862062210699973907685915891710079521394402054104113593977485571045082886122542310633415292259892107173767394075751033610606190315107818092913984761091714256162410911487792520462763107169501545471921136118889613764111388603444944021115574053252049810939037910685213114249390356399391083133347816519510328737942111374108260563452860941083193489388158411210933463883606105110348877333521050495950956824310526830835267162104791863989067431062821090868559510400777823450634102113172546186561060003146855022697107312284647369906353909062158296792111202812716948336196247350049135711396291183690494702807101941926996967356997999572105795140647295866841122666457979433169013834081008090404106009810012515188045546101181772608249919920326422666829806500597293140997560167322182769688378268213806910137938396615464102906867144372699764410705174233597071424363883869524017194325919595544845253305679622646217934274796239452751736962965375063369090821012347317827440610770514966463814109420569583346841208711039285353212664209478560323141025217416688541386837757319192514666752333325439139155359455648431403916156690523913166501323067976136168615008235161328539985817047137418197702979161294379107077740413338408429152194132004225939526151384230634300615614456614056202426138838285506816291402147282693308713284924859334293145344916066784191457470854495409713932867530051409140675983590670087030 Portfolio34669347003473134759347903482034851348813491234943349733500435034350653509635125351563518635217352473527835309353393537035400354313546235490355213555135582356123564335674357043573535765357963582735855358863591635947359773600836039360693610036130361613619236220362513628136312363423637336404364343646536495365263655736586366173664736678367083673936770368003683136861368923692336951369823701237043370733710437135371653719637226372573728837316373473737737408374383746937500375303756137591376223765337681377123774237773378033783437865378953792637956379873801838047380783810838139381693820038231382613829238322383533838438412384433847338504385343856538596386263865738687387183874938777388083883838869388993893038961389913902239052390833911439142391733920339234392643929539326393563938739417394483947939508395393956939600396303966139692397223975339783398143984539873399043993439965399954002640057400874011840148401794021040238402694029940330403604039140422404524048340513405444057540603406344066440695407254075640787408174084840878409094094040969410004103041061410914112241153411834121441244412754130641334413654139541426414564148741518415484157941609416404167141699417304176041791418214185241883419134194441974420054203642064420954212542156421864221742248422784230942339423704240142430424614249142522425524258342614110078103541372000000021062023852604000210889992584601421120689136881332111377236117619285117413076733831011176009376566051512082320334839614120049934846966412403559268388566126491497419026611291098714156004612965213287554598130611558658825031325837931945732713416154033358869134443279568289231295764328479171613194768156903405137291562672579911392685611750650514660801434899098144951343786847381495028159817543915011577752727958145477200001686651505543542817455115872945571924428164681810308715961742992280307449816730982898671209175273776846479616971759812044621737908204753369217671050625932256178495282372541731885088677136413319576645912061652197450050669053811940144197874122719861256153637394196507268384088361731032527195434318110062299518634192328861620887912017529758403114221143711868064639216575040664586120994784442024979216792144148349932250952832692317222043581090555859229385504828324252250271802365861223339476384811732200563860819549723075112644553797236473754381387292499054636302501240933857485924112438732505472523725901777940623676250444290907890332446339833588272725197300285959208247815448312408832616683318730725251594101095959212482982183716021323141393952233318235880228555114212425792270460794622521055438958015213499605561321992265230815005626422722530305321442234760855528363822139775795719498212453288535724291979002382710271820251131382274212213021651010142452150240545296378212551277902546952102982343567799521685953926871147210353753090650122094492319523603419901866020113279187236755517225721886223075080532174890603521466931840024039649353719178570565265214185399241654418831819508157596466418045881907041754181162608464792171923765739287628220184150136605794204061757881084562057758766472856520970619589124877210356285098511682194226409862575222055712678092612311599968978943923513594884453819238521906507899532373292969753600323179952435583413233816180217729872377442920453877423161048931061674233509695322963823689558590514674240922810865534222497887703053858725745728555376122252797308685238152577521359354688225367965218768842250052033161404525685344846339473258985332085640922665736023157502266626917036213352695064877402044326435891382436654272474732478774582751177373838187328392150498010094284290602936575092881569551365125429245049376804655284174144794410832845719885971230528565336215379213292280520155760162969570084782523330613298004023028312929132197123393165904030438297532061110116248637318495067894813923221577611756043133327220393616264342170571781258163383724784344861933130049363520544334116547831104653462783901721568535441593234120257342436673828069883403820537851014532244391955062661317994193460827963158000335259482332881099490721728333512992134390531136772945666698307755863794969643087406825591135628209636165426204240120423040107862289788354110468723580240470629605220970433450270052049942711118155221782691248341517234926325113363272472599571818148224770502510474208263508605706424652712030569930522328077652490490692276396411116390392876181054077158229224875690478003284767188728017652906333928158148230449660565312922308759558132273032895855895722588628037676782386103296330205913038692879144280651083930812602091527901317154113328096713157586352294531133160971871797167336617025470612983457393468608665834663826916270479356760106622255753536206176839798834866992903640415344276687930545493281301112666029307818857379200183334909500846254433028943696381301332304202529292253464603615570400835830930592229087363970592955863073625875047026307934344288445433189354570433910652223586479939006247636531884658717635373355861212094233696969737722156937261757986501623772380378553423839183714992034413394971847119706884050436292212594412374918910164241575639324522751408397505084786964256727195498734241656332335150612431601259324495514466641432749203745510609558281629463298005303307034516692253701940346969082746246484714286835240759647345582686322949482782906652435174921971733321576948466655658017572499836619801135348879023050353023498272760975298735077399434338294505505887682720534974683440685653519854419551650751553962786937202520179484520196315239767947571937951501679156684581521506003140588084942833897766493448207459004916604512782741435297945132955241767331450441551160847569481565488932611714814691758348251651040547330249817514590798183578625200969197241429152165721048331535398108814081346541106427523514154245919359232282

Performance Stats

Performance stats (2)

Correlations

Annual Returns

Calendar Year Returns

MLM Index 3X1995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420150218999999999999970311015404060000000000000370000000000000007E-202110000000000000240000000000000001E-30151022600000000000001014599999999999999005-008-90000000000000011E-30379-96999999999999989E-299000000000000005E-2013400000000000001-017199999999999999-27999999999999997E-2025390999999999999998E-2Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015031303639999999999999901749999999999999902690000000000000252999999999999999E-297000000000000003E-2008013300000000000001031700573999999999999996E-2025011203439999999999999712E-271999999999999995E-2-72999999999999995E-2-01189999999999999901102310000000000000142000000000000003E-27030 Portfolio1995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420150265000000000000010145999999999999990218999999999999970196999999999999980182-55999999999999994E-2-88000000000000009E-2-0138000000000000010247011469000000000000006E-2015174999999999999997E-2-03070238999999999999990135000000000000012E-301350000000000000102280000000000000190999999999999998E-2-2E-3

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 19

The Credit Suisse MF Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLM 3x Index Correlations

bull Both MLM and Credit Suisse exhibit similar negative correlations with US equities

bull MLM and Credit Suisse indices are highly correlated with one another

Correlations ndash various periods ending 93016

SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM 7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099MLM Index 3X -054 -056 MLM Index 3X -023 -026

Credit Suisse Index -059 -055 080 Credit Suisse Index -021 -020 082

SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM 7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099MLM Index 3X -031 -033 MLM Index 3X -036 -036

Credit Suisse Index -027 -027 076 Credit Suisse Index -021 -021 066

1 Year Correlation 3 Year Correlation

10 Year Correlation5 Year Correlation

SampP 500 7030 MLM 7030 Portfolio 098MLM Index 3X -027 -026

Credit Suisse Index -018 -016 066

20 Year Correlation

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 20

Systematic Trend Following modeled with the MLM 3X IndexTM in the AL study Long history calculated back to pre-1970 PCA used data going back to 1970 Simple captures the beta captures big down markets reasonable for modeling However has only one lookback period (12 months) slow to respond to trends Investible but not inclusive of the full opportunity set (no equities)

Benchmark recommendation Credit Suisse Managed Futures Liquid IndexTM15 vol Diversified across 18 deep and liquid futures contracts in major markets Diversified across 16 lookback horizons from trading 30 days to 12 months Utilizes a moving average crossover method to determine the signal Equally risk weighted over 288 potentially different signals (long or short) Most comparable to the strategies that will be sourced

Recommended RISIC Mandate Benchmark

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 21

Due Diligence Plan Update Relating To STF and Platform Manager

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 22

Due Diligence Process Outline Platform Manager

bull Provide a short list of platform implementation platform managers

Draft DDQ prepared to be issued

bull Send DDQ to short list platform managers

bull Conduct a review of platform managers DDQ responses - rate proposals

PCA and Rhode Island investment staff

bull Conduct onsite due diligence at platform managers offices in NYC

PCA and Rhode Island investment staff

bull Platform manager recommendation

PCA memo to SIC SIC interview recommended platform manager

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 23

Due Diligence Process Outline STF Managers

bull Provide a short list of systematic trend following managers

bull Draft DDQ prepared to be issued

bull Send a DDQ to short list systematic trend following managers

bull Conduct a review of STF managers DDQ responses - rate proposals

bull PCA and Rhode Island investment staff

bull Systematic trend following managers recommendation

bull PCA memo to SIC

bull SIC interview recommended systematic trend following managers

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 24

Other Implementation Crisis Risk OffsetSM Class Managers

Other bull Platform manager to conduct operational due diligence at recommended STF

Managerrsquos office

bull STF Managers hired contracting other administration 1Q 2017

bull Fund long-duration Fixed Income and systematic trend following accounts pari passu

bull Primary source of funds ndash Equity HF portfolio redemptions

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 25

Appendix

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 26

Model Output Focus Portfolio Comparison of Trend IndicesFocus Portfolio

Line Strategic Class Trend

MLM 3x Index

TrendCS MF Index

1 US Equity 200 2002 Non-US Equity 200 2003 Private Growth 150 1504 Income Class 60 605 Crisis Risk Offset 80 806 Inflation Protection 100 1007 IG Fixed Income 115 1158 Absolute Return 65 659 Cash 30 30

10 Total 1000 1000

Asset Only Statistics11 Median Scenario Comp Return (22-year period) 73 7312 Average Scenario Standard Deviation (22-year period) 118 12113 Sharpe Ratio (22-year period) 041 04014 Sortino Ratio (22-year period) 074 074

15 Best Year Worst Year 298 -208

306 -210

16 Average 2-year Loss of Worst 10 -160 -164AssetLiability Statistics

17 Percent of Scenarios lt50 [during first 5-years] 75 7918 Median Funded Ratio [end of 5-years] 600 59919 Average Funded Ratio of Worst 10 [end of 5-years] 477 47620 Median Funded Ratio [end of 22-years] 994 99121 Average Funded Ratio of Worst 10 [end of 22-years] 671 66522 Median Avg Ann Employer Cntrbs Rate [during 22-yrs] 206 20623 Average of Yrs w Employer Cntrbs Rate gt30 [during 22-yrs] 44 47

bull For modeling purposes both indices have same volatility assumptions

bull Modeling the Focus Portfolio with the CS MF Index results in the same long-term return (line 11) and slightly higher risk (line 12)

bull Portfolio results are similar regardless of the trend following index used in modeling the total portfolio

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 27

Comparing Modeling of MLM 3x and CS MF IndexMLM 3x Index Credits Suisse MF Index

1970 1607 9491971 648 -5801972 278 12791973 9190 63231974 1458 51501975 -620 -20551976 851 14651977 374 15591978 -178 4531979 2107 31971980 -568 4861981 2839 18891982 1278 13801983 -1005 -11941984 1281 0881985 239 5561986 456 2281987 643 10851988 188 -10381989 809 0551990 657 3771991 -604 -7281992 -557 -12351993 481 14301994 549 -7851995 384 14781996 409 21071997 077 0061998 992 10741999 -564 -12982000 3782 0122001 043 0492002 -972 11652003 1191 39572004 992 0172005 456 1152006 -1329 24292007 -461 4192008 4324 42422009 -811 -3752010 1370 5092011 1740 -16162012 -1910 -22872013 -127 10762014 2995 28432015 1359 086

-4000

-2000

000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Annual Modeled Returns

$0

$500

$1000

$1500

$2000

$2500

Growth of $100

MLM 3x Credit Suisse Managed Futures

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 28

The Credit Suisse Managed Futures Indextrade is a systematic trend following strategy that trades a total of 18 futures contracts providing liquid and diversified exposure to market trends across asset classes geographies and time horizons The strategy tracks 16 time horizon signals to identify trends across various horizons ranging from shorter-term moving average (60 trading days) to longer-term moving average (360 trading days) The average length of moving average signal utilized is a 210 trading days moving average

bull Shortest signal compares the 60 (trading) day MA (moving average) versus 5 day MA

bull Longest signal compares the 360 (trading) day MA (moving average) versus 5 day MA

bull For each of the 18 different futures contracts (markets) total return index

- If average price in most recent 5 days is gt average price over 60 days =gt Buy the market (go long)

- If average price in most recent 5 days is lt average price over 60 days=gt Sell the market (go short)

bull Signals are equally weighted resulting in a portfolio of long and short exposures When signals align (strong trends) the index is more long or more short

Recommended Benchmark Index

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 29

The Credit Suisse Managed Futures Indextrade Markets Traded

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 30

bull Diversifies and balances risk across the four major futures market typesbull Rebalancing incorporates recent trailing volatility of each instrument traded

The Credit Suisse Managed Futures Indextrade Risk Allocation

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 31

Instruments Forwards

bull Agreement to buysell an asset at a future time for a specified price Long position = agree to buy at the future date Short position = agree to sell at the future date

bull Over-the-counter instrument (ie customized have counterparty risk)

bull Different than an option in that both buyer and seller have obligations

bull Essentially a contract that states Asset type and amount Future date of trade Future price of trade Settlement options (ie cash payment or delivery of asset)

bull Currency forwards can be more liquid than currency futures

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 32

Instruments Futures

bull Futures = analogous to forwards but exchange tradedstandardized Exchanges (eg CME Group) provide numerous services

o Guarantee contracts will be honored backed by exchange with is backed by all of the exchange members (de minimis counterparty risk)

o Facilitate transactionso Set margin requirementso Organize daily settlementmarking to marketo Arrange settlementdelivery procedures

bull Extremely liquid instruments

bull Vast majority of futures contracts do not lead to delivery

bull Regulated by the US Government Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 33

Futures Transaction Example

bull November crude oil contract (one contract = 1000 barrels of oil)

bull ldquoPricerdquo of contract = delivery price (ie futures are free) 1000 barrels $43 = $43000 of exposure (ie notional value)

o Longbuy position = agree to buy 1000 barrels in November $43barrelo Shortsell position = agree to sell 1000 barrels in November $43barrel

Initial margin = $3190 (ie money that must be deposited to trade)o Typically equal to roughly one-day maximum price fluctuationo Margin = embedded leverageo Exchanges require daily settlementmark to market

bull At contract expiration (or anytime while contract is traded) | longbuy ldquoSpotrdquo price = $50

o Gain = ($50-$43) x 1000 = $7000

ldquoSpotrdquo price = $40o Loss = ($40-$43) x 1000 = ($3000)

Gainslosses for shortsell positionare the opposite

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 34

Leverage in Trend Following Strategies

bull Futures contain embedded leverage

bull Trend Following strategies leverage asymp 0x-7x Averagefull-cycle leverage asymp 3x

bull Without leverage (ie 1x) strategy volatility may be asymp 6 (ie bond-like)

bull Leveragerisk oversight is key component of strategy selection

bull Leverage protections Futures have daily price limits and daily settlement

o Price limit = maximum change in contract priceo Exchanges will close out positions if failed settlement

Long and short positions partially offset leverage risks

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 35

CROSM Implementation Considerations (LongShort aspects)bull Long position ndash give up cash to buy a security (traditional)

bull Short position ndash sell an un-owned security receive cash liable for securityrsquos position

bull Because of the liability short positions require collateral as security collateral levels based on potential security movements not total value of positions

bull Minimum collateral requirements allow managers to apply leverage

bull Unlike typical leveraged situations collateral requirements re-set every day

bull Longshort portfolios contain many offsetting long and short positions itrsquos the net position that matters

bull Longshort portfolios utilize ldquoprimary brokersrdquo to effect these types of trades

bull In total across entire CROSM class hundreds of netted ls positions

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 36

DISCLOSURES This document is provided for informational purposes only It does not constitute an offer of securities of any of the issuers that may be described herein Informationcontained herein may have been provided by third parties including investment firms providing information on returns and assets under management and may not have beenindependently verified The past performance information contained in this report is not necessarily indicative of future results and there is no assurance that the investment in question willachieve comparable results or that the Firm will be able to implement its investment strategy or achieve its investment objectives The actual realized value of currently unrealizedinvestments (if any) will depend on a variety of factors including future operating results the value of the assets and market conditions at the time of disposition any related transactioncosts and the timing and manner of sale all of which may differ from the assumptions and circumstances on which any current unrealized valuations are based

Neither PCA nor PCArsquos officers employees or agents make any representation or warranty express or implied in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained inthis document or any oral information provided in connection herewith or any data subsequently generated herefrom and accept no responsibility obligation or liability (whether direct orindirect in contract tort or otherwise) in relation to any of such information PCA and PCArsquos officers employees and agents expressly disclaim any and all liability that may be based on thisdocument and any errors therein or omissions therefrom Neither PCA nor any of PCArsquos officers employees or agents make any representation of warranty express or implied that anytransaction has been or may be effected on the terms or in the manner stated in this document or as to the achievement or reasonableness of future projections management targetsestimates prospects or returns if any Any views or terms contained herein are preliminary only and are based on financial economic market and other conditions prevailing as of thedate of this document and are therefore subject to change

The information contained in this report may include forward-looking statements Forward-looking statements include a number of risks uncertainties and other factors beyond the control ofthe Firm which may result in material differences in actual results performance or other expectations The opinions estimates and analyses reflect PCArsquos current judgment which maychange in the future

Any tables graphs or charts relating to past performance included in this report are intended only to illustrate investment performance for the historical periods shown Such tables graphsand charts are not intended to predict future performance and should not be used as the basis for an investment decision

All trademarks or product names mentioned herein are the property of their respective owners Indices are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index The index dataprovided is on an ldquoas isrdquo basis In no event shall the index providers or its affiliates have any liability of any kind in connection with the index data or the portfolio described herein Copyingor redistributing the index data is strictly prohibited

The Russell indices are either registered trademarks or trade names of Frank Russell Company in the US andor other countries

The MSCI indices are trademarks and service marks of MSCI or its subsidiaries

Standard and Poorrsquos (SampP) is a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc SampP indices including the SampP 500 are a registered trademark of The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc

CBOE not SampP calculates and disseminates the BXM Index The CBOE has a business relationship with Standard amp Poors on the BXM CBOE and Chicago Board Options Exchange areregistered trademarks of the CBOE and SPX and CBOE SampP 500 BuyWrite Index BXM are servicemarks of the CBOE The methodology of the CBOE SampP 500 BuyWrite Index is owned by CBOEand may be covered by one or more patents or pending patent applications

The Barclays Capital indices (formerly known as the Lehman indices) are trademarks of Barclays Capital Inc

The Citigroup indices are trademarks of Citicorp or its affiliates

The Merrill Lynch indices are trademarks of Merrill Lynch amp Co or its affiliates

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MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15x 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol 7030 Portfolio
1995 0219 0228 0265 1995 0219 0313 0265
1996 0311 0264 0146 1996 0311 0364 0146
1997 0154 014 0219 1997 0154 0175 0219
1998 0406 0209 0197 1998 0406 0269 0197
1999 007 0066 0182 1999 007 0053 0182
2000 0211 0087 -0056 2000 0211 0097 -0056
2001 0004 007 -0088 2001 0004 008 -0088
2002 0151 0112 -0138 2002 0151 0133 -0138
2003 0226 0213 0247 2003 0226 0317 0247
2004 0146 0042 0114 2004 0146 005 0114
2005 005 0063 0069 2005 005 0074 0069
2006 -008 0188 0151 2006 -008 025 0151
2007 -0009 0095 0075 2007 -0009 0112 0075
2008 0379 023 -0307 2008 0379 0344 -0307
2009 -0097 0009 0239 2009 -0097 0012 0239
2010 0099 005 0135 2010 0099 0072 0135
2011 0134 -0048 0002 2011 0134 -0073 0002
2012 -0172 -008 0135 2012 -0172 -0119 0135
2013 -0028 0075 0228 2013 -0028 011 0228
2014 0253 0158 0091 2014 0253 0231 0091
2015 0091 0036 -0002 2015 0091 0042 -0002
Return 110 101 80 Return 110 131 80
StDev 153 93 146 StDev 153 134 146
Corr to 7030 -023 005 100 Corr to 7030 -023 004 100
1 Year Correlation 3 Year Correlation
SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM
7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099
MLM Index 3X -054 -056 MLM Index 3X -023 -026
Credit Suisse Index -059 -055 080 Credit Suisse Index -021 -020 082
5 Year Correlation 10 Year Correlation
SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM
7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099
MLM Index 3X -031 -033 MLM Index 3X -036 -036
Credit Suisse Index -027 -027 076 Credit Suisse Index -021 -021 066
20 Year Correlation
SampP 500 7030 MLM
7030 Portfolio 098
MLM Index 3X -027 -026
Credit Suisse Index -018 -016 066
Correlation to date Correlation to date
SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
SampP 500 Index 1 099 -054 -059 SampP 500 Index 1 099 -023 -021
7030 Portfolio 099 1 -056 -055 7030 Portfolio 099 1 -026 -02
MLM Index 3X -054 -056 1 08 MLM Index 3X -023 -026 1 082
Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -059 -055 08 1 Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -021 -02 082 1
Correlation to date Correlation to date
SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
5 5 5 5 10 Years 10 Years 10 Years 10 Years
SampP 500 Index 1 099 -031 -027 SampP 500 Index 1 099 -036 -021
7030 Portfolio 099 1 -033 -027 7030 Portfolio 099 1 -036 -021
MLM Index 3X -031 -033 1 076 MLM Index 3X -036 -036 1 066
Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -027 -027 076 1 Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -021 -021 066 1
Correlation to date
SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
5 5 5 5
SampP 500 Index 1 098 -027 -018
7030 Portfolio 098 1 -026 -016
MLM Index 3X -027 -026 1 066
Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -018 -016 066 1
MLM 3x Credit Suisse 15 Vol 7030 SampP 500
Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio
Periods Ending 9302016
1 Year 85 124 07 24 162 01 125 105 12 154 125 12
3 Years 139 145 10 130 156 08 79 90 09 112 108 10
5 Years 33 129 03 46 138 03 120 92 13 164 111 15 SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
10 Years 58 163 03 79 144 05 62 124 04 72 153 04 Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date
20 Years 98 141 05 117 147 06 71 121 04 79 154 04 Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g) Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g) Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g) Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g)
1 Year 1543 1246 122 1252 1052 116 846 1244 066 24 162 01
Statistical Measures 3 Years 1116 1083 102 792 897 087 1392 1446 095 130 156 08
Largest Drawdown - period Mar-09 - May-09 Mar-11 - Nov-12 Nov-07 - Feb-09 Nov-07 - Feb-09 5 Years 1637 1112 146 12 915 13 329 1288 025 46 138 03
Largest Drawdown - -2509 -277 -4216 -5095 10 Years 724 1525 041 621 1239 043 58 1627 03 79 144 05
Largest Drawdown - of months 3 21 16 16 20 Years 791 1535 036 711 1212 039 977 1408 053 117 147 06
Recovery Period Jun-09 - Jul-11 Dec-12 - Nov-14 Mar-09 - Apr-11 Mar-09 - Mar-12
Recovery Duration 26 24 26 37 00237 01617
01298 0156
Crisis Period Returns 00464 01383
LTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98) 121 143 -88 -100 00787 01439
Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02) 113 127 -145 -206 01172 01466
Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09) 326 277 -309 -388
MLM Credit Suisse 7030
Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio
Periods Ending 9302016
1 Year 85 124 07 14 90 01 125 105 12
3 Years 139 145 10 90 103 09 79 90 09
5 Years 33 129 03 35 92 04 120 92 13
10 Years 58 163 03 58 97 05 62 124 04
20 Years 98 141 05 91 100 07 71 121 04
Statistical Measures
Largest Drawdown - period Mar-09 - May-09 Mar-11 - Nov-12 Nov-07 - Feb-09
Largest Drawdown - -2509 -1486 -4216
Largest Drawdown - of months 3 21 16
Recovery Period Jun-09 - Jul-11 Dec-12 - Nov-14 Mar-09 - Apr-11
Recovery Duration 26 24 26
Full - history semi-deviation 83 54 83
Full - history skewness 03 02 -08
Full- history kurtosis 47 -01 15
Crisis Period Returns
LTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98) 121 104 -88
Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02) 113 157 -145
Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09) 326 183 -309
SampP 500 Index MLM Index 3X woInt Credit Suisse Index 7030 Portfolio
Return Return Return Return
Total Total Total Total
Jan-73 -149 NA NA NA
Feb-73 -352 NA NA NA
Mar-73 009 NA NA NA
Apr-73 -384 NA NA NA
May-73 -164 NA NA NA
Jun-73 -04 NA NA NA
Jul-73 406 NA NA NA
Aug-73 -342 NA NA NA
Sep-73 427 NA NA NA
Oct-73 013 NA NA NA
Nov-73 -1112 NA NA NA
Dec-73 196 NA NA NA
Jan-74 -071 NA NA NA
Feb-74 -005 NA NA NA
Mar-74 -202 NA NA NA
Apr-74 -359 NA NA NA
May-74 -302 NA NA NA
Jun-74 -112 NA NA NA
Jul-74 -742 NA NA NA
Aug-74 -864 NA NA NA
Sep-74 -115 NA NA NA
Oct-74 168 NA NA NA
Nov-74 -49 NA NA NA
Dec-74 -158 NA NA NA
Jan-75 1273 NA NA NA
Feb-75 639 NA NA NA
Mar-75 255 NA NA NA
Apr-75 509 NA NA NA
May-75 476 NA NA NA
Jun-75 477 NA NA NA
Jul-75 -644 NA NA NA
Aug-75 -176 NA NA NA
Sep-75 -311 NA NA NA
Oct-75 654 NA NA NA
Nov-75 281 NA NA NA
Dec-75 -082 NA NA NA
Jan-76 1217 NA NA NA
Feb-76 -084 NA NA NA
Mar-76 338 NA NA NA
Apr-76 -08 NA NA NA
May-76 -112 NA NA NA
Jun-76 441 NA NA NA
Jul-76 -05 NA NA NA
Aug-76 -02 NA NA NA
Sep-76 258 NA NA NA
Oct-76 -191 NA NA NA
Nov-76 -045 NA NA NA
Dec-76 558 NA NA NA
Jan-77 -473 NA NA NA
Feb-77 -182 NA NA NA
Mar-77 -104 NA NA NA
Apr-77 038 NA NA NA
May-77 -198 NA NA NA
Jun-77 493 NA NA NA
Jul-77 -124 NA NA NA
Aug-77 -172 NA NA NA
Sep-77 015 NA NA NA
Oct-77 -394 NA NA NA
Nov-77 312 NA NA NA
Dec-77 071 NA NA NA
Jan-78 -573 NA NA NA
Feb-78 -202 NA NA NA
Mar-78 297 NA NA NA
Apr-78 901 NA NA NA
May-78 086 NA NA NA
Jun-78 -132 NA NA NA
Jul-78 584 NA NA NA
Aug-78 302 NA NA NA
Sep-78 -031 NA NA NA
Oct-78 -874 NA NA NA
Nov-78 213 NA NA NA
Dec-78 194 NA NA NA
Jan-79 443 NA NA NA
Feb-79 -321 NA NA NA
Mar-79 598 NA NA NA
Apr-79 061 NA NA NA
May-79 -218 NA NA NA
Jun-79 434 NA NA NA
Jul-79 133 NA NA NA
Aug-79 576 NA NA NA
Sep-79 044 NA NA NA
Oct-79 -639 NA NA NA
Nov-79 472 NA NA NA
Dec-79 22 NA NA NA
Jan-80 621 NA NA NA
Feb-80 -001 NA NA NA
Mar-80 -975 NA NA NA
Apr-80 462 NA NA NA
May-80 515 NA NA NA
Jun-80 316 NA NA NA
Jul-80 696 NA NA NA
Aug-80 101 NA NA NA
Sep-80 294 NA NA NA
Oct-80 202 NA NA NA
Nov-80 1065 NA NA NA
Dec-80 -301 NA NA NA
Jan-81 -42 NA NA NA
Feb-81 172 NA NA NA
Mar-81 399 NA NA NA
Apr-81 -194 NA NA NA
May-81 025 NA NA NA
Jun-81 -062 NA NA NA
Jul-81 021 NA NA NA
Aug-81 -578 NA NA NA
Sep-81 -492 NA NA NA
Oct-81 54 NA NA NA
Nov-81 412 NA NA NA
Dec-81 -256 NA NA NA
Jan-82 -13 NA NA NA
Feb-82 -559 NA NA NA
Mar-82 -052 NA NA NA
Apr-82 452 NA NA NA
May-82 -341 NA NA NA
Jun-82 -15 NA NA NA
Jul-82 -177 NA NA NA
Aug-82 1214 NA NA NA
Sep-82 124 NA NA NA
Oct-82 1151 NA NA NA
Nov-82 404 NA NA NA
Dec-82 193 NA NA NA
Jan-83 372 NA NA NA
Feb-83 229 NA NA NA
Mar-83 369 NA NA NA
Apr-83 788 NA NA NA
May-83 -087 NA NA NA
Jun-83 389 NA NA NA
Jul-83 -295 NA NA NA
Aug-83 15 NA NA NA
Sep-83 138 NA NA NA
Oct-83 -116 NA NA NA
Nov-83 211 NA NA NA
Dec-83 -052 NA NA NA
Jan-84 -056 NA NA NA
Feb-84 -352 NA NA NA
Mar-84 173 NA NA NA
Apr-84 092 NA NA NA
May-84 -556 NA NA NA
Jun-84 214 NA NA NA
Jul-84 -124 NA NA NA
Aug-84 1104 NA NA NA
Sep-84 002 NA NA NA
Oct-84 038 NA NA NA
Nov-84 -112 NA NA NA
Dec-84 264 NA NA NA
Jan-85 779 NA NA NA
Feb-85 123 NA NA NA
Mar-85 006 NA NA NA
Apr-85 -009 NA NA NA
May-85 578 NA NA NA
Jun-85 157 NA NA NA
Jul-85 -014 NA NA NA
Aug-85 -086 NA NA NA
Sep-85 -313 NA NA NA
Oct-85 462 NA NA NA
Nov-85 686 NA NA NA
Dec-85 484 NA NA NA
Jan-86 056 NA NA NA
Feb-86 747 NA NA NA
Mar-86 558 NA NA NA
Apr-86 -113 NA NA NA
May-86 532 NA NA NA
Jun-86 169 NA NA NA
Jul-86 -559 NA NA NA
Aug-86 741 NA NA NA
Sep-86 -827 NA NA NA
Oct-86 577 NA NA NA
Nov-86 243 NA NA NA
Dec-86 -255 NA NA NA
Jan-87 1347 NA NA NA
Feb-87 395 NA NA NA
Mar-87 289 NA NA NA
Apr-87 -089 NA NA NA
May-87 087 NA NA NA
Jun-87 505 NA NA NA
Jul-87 507 NA NA NA
Aug-87 373 NA NA NA
Sep-87 -219 NA NA NA
Oct-87 -2153 NA NA NA
Nov-87 -824 NA NA NA
Dec-87 761 NA NA NA
Jan-88 421 NA NA 349
Feb-88 466 NA NA 436
Mar-88 -309 NA NA 036
Apr-88 11 NA NA 066
May-88 086 NA NA -09
Jun-88 458 NA NA 252
Jul-88 -038 NA NA 02
Aug-88 -34 NA NA -286
Sep-88 425 NA NA 359
Oct-88 282 NA NA 344
Nov-88 -143 NA NA 034
Dec-88 174 NA NA 116
Jan-89 731 NA NA 398
Feb-89 -248 NA NA -089
Mar-89 232 NA NA 07
Apr-89 52 NA NA 323
May-89 405 NA NA 14
Jun-89 -057 NA NA 004
Jul-89 903 NA NA 742
Aug-89 195 NA NA -04
Sep-89 -041 NA NA 113
Oct-89 -232 NA NA -171
Nov-89 204 NA NA 23
Dec-89 24 NA NA 194
Jan-90 -671 NA NA -478
Feb-90 13 NA NA -08
Mar-90 264 NA NA -117
Apr-90 -249 NA NA -177
May-90 975 NA NA 786
Jun-90 -067 NA NA -001
Jul-90 -032 NA NA 019
Aug-90 -904 NA NA -722
Sep-90 -487 NA NA -53
Oct-90 -043 NA NA 295
Nov-90 646 NA NA 26
Dec-90 279 NA NA 235
Jan-91 435 NA NA 348
Feb-91 715 NA NA 62
Mar-91 242 NA NA 049
Apr-91 024 NA NA 058
May-91 431 NA NA 257
Jun-91 -458 NA NA -379
Jul-91 466 NA NA 377
Aug-91 237 NA NA 166
Sep-91 -167 NA NA 095
Oct-91 134 NA NA 152
Nov-91 -403 NA NA -26
Dec-91 1144 NA NA 76
Jan-92 -186 -50186134107 NA -101
Feb-92 13 -11806985257 NA 03
Mar-92 -194 -34682100213 NA -245
Apr-92 294 04856690806 NA 135
May-92 049 36691977834 NA 196
Jun-92 -149 3995994645 NA -144
Jul-92 409 58382478439 NA 241
Aug-92 -205 21392596519 NA 003
Sep-92 118 -10417441781 NA 069
Oct-92 035 -11426309261 NA -063
Nov-92 34 -24243841368 NA 231
Dec-92 123 03309287484 NA 157
Jan-93 084 12125566229 NA 109
Feb-93 136 59842293696 NA 136
Mar-93 211 -06484088187 NA 282
Apr-93 -242 09183032136 NA 027
May-93 268 -00124707027 NA 196
Jun-93 029 75565231659 NA 064
Jul-93 -04 34694235802 NA 068
Aug-93 379 26998187389 NA 356
Sep-93 -077 -35544940483 NA -032
Oct-93 207 12906000348 NA 154
Nov-93 -095 39231376084 NA -251
Dec-93 121 23140907663 NA 262
Jan-94 34 -16392143954 NA 357
Feb-94 -271 -5375365439 NA -19
Mar-94 -436 -17526970615 NA -389
Apr-94 128 -31042584129 NA 106
May-94 164 21687630069 NA 058
Jun-94 -245 -02802505425 NA -136
Jul-94 328 -09170406074 NA 249
Aug-94 41 03148132864 NA 3
Sep-94 -245 49091708791 NA -203
Oct-94 225 33710507687 NA 14
Nov-94 -364 -02736669026 NA -3 SampP 500 Index MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol 7030 Portfolio
Dec-94 148 11635880505 NA 095 Dec-94 100 100 100 100
Jan-95 259 1488846469 18462 078 Jan-95 103 101 102 101
Feb-95 39 18245801927 -04746 274 Feb-95 107 103 101 104
Mar-95 295 37741988604 70854 257 Mar-95 110 107 109 106
Apr-95 294 20196669281 31179 254 Apr-95 113 109 112 109
May-95 4 4438151788 78944 291 May-95 117 114 121 112
Jun-95 232 15287989065 -04753 152 Jun-95 120 116 120 114
Jul-95 332 -14769041128 -2252 32 Jul-95 124 114 117 117
Aug-95 025 -36439459991 -31269 016 Aug-95 125 110 114 118
Sep-95 422 05926567612 39491 274 Sep-95 130 111 118 121
Oct-95 -036 2635846499 25163 -064 Oct-95 129 114 121 120
Nov-95 439 27162162082 33589 332 Nov-95 135 117 125 124
Dec-95 193 4331305919 47021 198 Dec-95 138 122 131 126
Jan-96 34 19634168588 54269 207 Jan-96 142 124 138 129
Feb-96 093 -13857157749 -37777 042 Feb-96 144 123 133 130
Mar-96 096 3570816298 36706 074 Mar-96 145 127 138 131
Apr-96 147 47035792726 48573 151 Apr-96 147 133 145 133
May-96 258 04897246276 -23907 119 May-96 151 134 141 134
Jun-96 038 04231657395 28546 021 Jun-96 151 134 145 134
Jul-96 -442 -32825387444 -5322 -362 Jul-96 145 130 138 130
Aug-96 211 50232432929 29044 183 Aug-96 148 136 142 132
Sep-96 563 54206924649 82056 405 Sep-96 156 144 153 137
Oct-96 276 51159466491 83507 144 Oct-96 160 151 166 139
Nov-96 756 43728165918 864 527 Nov-96 173 158 180 147
Dec-96 -198 14093703517 -07113 -113 Dec-96 169 160 179 145
Jan-97 625 17011191838 -16167 314 Jan-97 180 162 176 150
Feb-97 078 -17477703643 -15622 041 Feb-97 181 160 173 150
Mar-97 -411 -0910181567 12022 -309 Mar-97 174 158 175 145
Apr-97 597 09232176853 15126 349 Apr-97 184 160 178 151
May-97 609 -06805906276 09263 543 May-97 195 159 180 159
Jun-97 448 14017438969 -08095 375 Jun-97 204 161 178 165
Jul-97 796 41579104051 60499 584 Jul-97 220 167 189 174
Aug-97 -56 -24491709033 -58848 -401 Aug-97 208 163 178 167
Sep-97 548 23206853381 65934 476 Sep-97 219 167 190 175
Oct-97 -334 3155194786 26194 -317 Oct-97 212 172 195 170
Nov-97 463 1734137994 34076 24 Nov-97 222 175 201 174
Dec-97 172 50839377232 45191 168 Dec-97 226 184 210 177
Jan-98 111 -0540706989 01984 101 Jan-98 228 183 211 178
Feb-98 721 40902523842 09547 561 Feb-98 245 191 213 189
Mar-98 512 4564059454 36725 385 Mar-98 257 200 221 196
Apr-98 101 10197007162 2729 086 Apr-98 260 202 227 197
May-98 -172 66464318242 49967 -174 May-98 255 215 238 194
Jun-98 406 14535097859 12227 237 Jun-98 266 218 241 199
Jul-98 -106 79600070571 25845 -106 143 Jul-98 263 235 247 197
Aug-98 -1446 85969949752 100188 -1191 Aug-98 225 256 272 173
Sep-98 641 -43471273323 13057 462 Sep-98 239 245 275 181
Oct-98 813 -21914686666 -48215 62 Oct-98 259 239 262 192
Nov-98 606 35427775078 -16838 49 Nov-98 274 248 258 202
Dec-98 576 46223079694 36184 48 Dec-98 290 259 267 211
Jan-99 418 11652083769 -13599 243 Jan-99 302 262 263 217
Feb-99 -311 08705260303 -29127 -306 Feb-99 293 264 256 210
Mar-99 4 -66775958823 -24295 326 Mar-99 305 247 250 217
Apr-99 387 22077437514 51823 383 Apr-99 316 252 263 225
May-99 -236 05593377297 -19638 -207 May-99 309 254 257 220
Jun-99 555 0821055256 43706 406 Jun-99 326 256 269 229
Jul-99 -312 -05417097185 00435 -19 Jul-99 316 254 269 225
Aug-99 -049 12651757883 01021 -075 Aug-99 314 258 269 223
Sep-99 -274 24672781685 05889 -147 Sep-99 306 264 271 220
Oct-99 633 -17330628613 -47866 486 Oct-99 325 259 258 231
Nov-99 203 37710155755 29817 248 Nov-99 332 269 265 236
Dec-99 589 30182108515 60293 568 Dec-99 351 277 281 250
Jan-00 -502 24897212667 -25282 -359 Jan-00 334 284 274 241
Feb-00 -189 -05713037029 10256 122 Feb-00 327 283 277 244
Mar-00 978 -24716293218 -3378 621 Mar-00 359 276 268 259
Apr-00 -301 03990582414 -22613 -331 1573 Apr-00 348 277 262 250
May-00 -205 24192880579 0877 -232 May-00 341 283 264 245
Jun-00 247 0878887186 -34187 3 Jun-00 350 286 255 252
Jul-00 -156 24260079771 12301 -165 Jul-00 344 293 258 248
Aug-00 621 75396102385 45179 559 Aug-00 366 315 270 262
Sep-00 -528 09222855204 04031 -385 Sep-00 346 318 271 252
Oct-00 -042 299852918 44133 -131 Oct-00 345 327 283 248
Nov-00 -788 5315579778 110553 -68 Nov-00 318 345 314 231
Dec-00 049 -25942802121 -17463 193 Dec-00 319 336 308 236
1-Jan 355 -00863561154 -04261 284 Jan-01 331 335 307 243
1-Feb -912 16209515233 74179 -716 Feb-01 300 341 330 225
1-Mar -633 48299554873 94097 -52 Mar-01 281 357 361 213
1-Apr 777 -43323517245 -65179 61 Apr-01 303 342 337 227
1-May 067 24991627761 11086 031 May-01 305 350 341 227
1-Jun -243 -01569851257 00543 -165 Jun-01 298 350 341 223
1-Jul -098 -21829671963 -05079 -093 Jul-01 295 342 340 221
1-Aug -626 -26070979092 17884 -404 Aug-01 276 333 346 212
1-Sep -808 10636654952 60561 -685 Sep-01 254 337 367 198
1-Oct 191 09408124501 22528 233 Oct-01 259 340 375 203
1-Nov 767 -16137664028 -837 519 Nov-01 279 334 344 213
1-Dec 088 07970479005 -2992 094 Dec-01 281 337 333 215
2-Jan -146 01132698972 -26759 -115 Jan-02 277 338 324 213
2-Feb -193 -02410246265 -26221 -106 Feb-02 272 337 316 210
2-Mar 376 -64656658879 -37678 312 Mar-02 282 315 304 217
2-Apr -606 01559405489 -06737 -3 Apr-02 265 315 302 210
2-May -074 19425675286 49554 -043 May-02 263 322 317 209
2-Jun -712 46154392532 59609 -498 Jun-02 244 336 336 199
2-Jul -78 -09755577412 44704 -592 Jul-02 225 333 351 187
2-Aug 066 36669673432 29178 074 Aug-02 227 345 361 189
2-Sep -1087 42995914132 68228 -728 Sep-02 202 360 386 175
2-Oct 88 -18586716944 -39428 521 Oct-02 220 354 370 184
2-Nov 589 -06691963741 -43217 423 Nov-02 233 351 354 192
2-Dec -587 10504712371 65168 -333 Dec-02 219 388 377 185
3-Jan -262 79413180181 78029 -186 Jan-03 213 419 407 182
3-Feb -15 5839796145 24675 -082 Feb-03 210 443 417 180
3-Mar 097 -4822187841 -49263 039 Mar-03 212 422 396 181
3-Apr 824 08044165566 01717 619 Apr-03 230 425 397 192
3-May 527 86017617168 75621 492 May-03 242 462 427 202
3-Jun 128 -16232843116 -23723 11 Jun-03 245 454 417 204
3-Jul 176 -58470688666 -38819 084 Jul-03 249 428 401 206
3-Aug 195 -01285241001 24459 191 Aug-03 254 427 411 210
3-Sep -106 62607424571 26964 031 Sep-03 251 454 422 210
3-Oct 566 09634730462 79884 431 Oct-03 266 458 455 219
3-Nov 088 23264834944 02951 12 Nov-03 268 469 457 222
3-Dec 524 14110879536 8856 41 Dec-03 282 476 497 231
4-Jan 184 19478633231 26613 172 Jan-04 287 485 510 235
4-Feb 139 52879779623 57235 144 Feb-04 291 511 540 239
4-Mar -151 2268957551 -03792 -05 Mar-04 287 522 538 237
4-Apr -157 -56830338449 -105019 -233 Apr-04 282 493 481 232
4-May 137 -16566072328 -32214 087 May-04 286 484 466 234
4-Jun 194 -17215338796 -23435 168 Jun-04 292 476 455 238
4-Jul -331 -06069797015 -19673 -258 Jul-04 282 473 446 232
4-Aug 04 -05707405134 -31134 082 Aug-04 283 470 432 234
4-Sep 108 70162697766 75979 145 Sep-04 286 503 465 237
4-Oct 153 34033420009 3203 17 Oct-04 291 521 480 241
4-Nov 405 45583596598 79681 368 Nov-04 302 544 518 250
4-Dec 34 01240939032 07905 307 Dec-04 313 545 522 257
5-Jan -244 16755564551 -35158 -181 Jan-05 305 554 504 253
5-Feb 21 -20025648058 07235 196 Feb-05 311 543 507 258
5-Mar -177 -10751895082 -32131 -158 Mar-05 306 537 491 254
5-Apr -19 -2390258099 -3307 -143 Apr-05 300 524 475 250
5-May 318 08685813036 14103 272 May-05 310 529 481 257
5-Jun 014 2223478206 2443 083 Jun-05 310 541 493 259
5-Jul 372 -21671781188 16173 293 Jul-05 322 529 501 267
5-Aug -091 49286219575 23044 002 Aug-05 319 555 513 267
5-Sep 081 37034231946 44919 108 Sep-05 321 576 536 270
5-Oct -167 -41709576663 -50465 -191 Oct-05 316 552 509 264
5-Nov 378 22186228209 731 307 Nov-05 328 564 546 272
5-Dec 003 15087373486 26914 097 Dec-05 328 572 561 275
6-Jan 265 05184116785 49735 32 Jan-06 337 575 588 284
6-Feb 027 -12693666599 -08661 013 Feb-06 338 568 583 284
6-Mar 125 20763323239 66529 136 Mar-06 342 580 622 288
6-Apr 134 -11401031738 110633 149 Apr-06 346 573 691 292
6-May -288 -38328436628 -15079 -283 May-06 336 551 681 284
6-Jun 014 -17992981531 -41286 014 Jun-06 337 541 652 285
6-Jul 062 -32543371611 -14002 038 Jul-06 339 524 643 286
6-Aug 238 -01076272465 29098 232 Aug-06 347 523 662 292
6-Sep 258 07974403785 -03827 16 Sep-06 356 527 659 297
6-Oct 326 -29512764216 -00218 309 Oct-06 368 512 659 306
6-Nov 19 03172013357 58364 222 Nov-06 375 513 698 313
6-Dec 14 25165243518 03787 117 Dec-06 380 526 700 317
7-Jan 151 -10891073316 07036 127 Jan-07 386 520 705 321
7-Feb -196 -0242828355 -13437 -066 Feb-07 378 519 696 318
7-Mar 112 -24787732727 -10187 115 Mar-07 382 506 689 322
7-Apr 443 02879881174 68079 345 Apr-07 399 508 736 333
7-May 349 04724656451 33768 267 May-07 413 510 761 342
7-Jun -166 06726351642 29473 -111 Jun-07 406 514 783 338
7-Jul -31 -10308231752 -62002 -209 Jul-07 394 508 734 331
7-Aug 15 -48378452877 -4152 085 Aug-07 400 484 704 334
7-Sep 374 50760632525 70341 364 Sep-07 415 508 753 346
7-Oct 159 36478459472 64209 235 2672 Oct-07 421 527 802 354
7-Nov -418 -09519733939 -29049 -338 Nov-07 404 522 779 342
7-Dec -069 -00407441673 00631 -06 Dec-07 401 522 779 340
8-Jan -6 38885050267 87377 -527 Jan-08 377 542 847 322
8-Feb -325 79938792923 97517 -138 Feb-08 364 585 930 318
8-Mar -043 -01164410281 -17484 -069 Mar-08 363 585 913 316
8-Apr 487 -11768609649 -73215 412 Apr-08 381 578 847 329
8-May 13 26727320318 02045 143 May-08 385 593 848 334
8-Jun -843 38796643349 38908 -664 Jun-08 353 616 881 311
8-Jul -084 -111000927524 -63133 -116 Jul-08 350 548 826 308
8-Aug 145 -81389596386 09693 032 Aug-08 355 503 834 309
8-Sep -891 2350077992 4926 -863 Sep-08 323 515 875 282
8-Oct -1679 231353875038 118043 -1488 Oct-08 269 634 978 240
8-Nov -718 91409930423 52566 -464 Nov-08 250 692 1029 229
8-Dec 106 39012647249 17001 298 Dec-08 252 719 1047 236
9-Jan -843 36085657209 -01782 -629 Jan-09 231 745 1045 221
9-Feb -1065 17480110926 0841 -723 Feb-09 207 758 1054 205
9-Mar 876 -40891209192 -17399 626 Mar-09 225 727 1035 218
9-Apr 957 -52452980511 -24793 785 Apr-09 246 689 1010 235
9-May 559 -175764056892 24393 525 May-09 260 568 1034 247
9-Jun 02 26344903362 -3873 018 Jun-09 260 583 994 248
9-Jul 756 29911557926 15775 638 Jul-09 280 600 1010 264
9-Aug 361 66647387555 02737 292 Aug-09 290 640 1013 271
9-Sep 373 19908108013 31657 353 Sep-09 301 653 1045 281
9-Oct -186 -1135758063 -18836 -156 Oct-09 295 646 1025 276
9-Nov 6 429598654 65618 406 Nov-09 313 673 1092 288
9-Dec 193 -3538041182 -30108 161 Dec-09 319 649 1060 292
10-Jan -36 -22840646395 -587 -256 Jan-10 308 635 997 285
10-Feb 31 13842186803 10589 206 Feb-10 317 643 1008 291
10-Mar 603 38205356429 32922 477 Mar-10 336 668 1041 304
10-Apr 158 14253968325 03791 14 Apr-10 342 678 1045 309
10-May -799 -05569215148 17471 -621 May-10 314 674 1063 290
10-Jun -523 -23229482293 07896 -318 Jun-10 298 658 1072 280
10-Jul 701 -52850060701 -35575 569 Jul-10 319 623 1034 296
10-Aug -451 76993453056 43121 -284 Aug-10 305 671 1078 288
10-Sep 892 05035470246 12552 702 Sep-10 332 675 1092 308
10-Oct 38 35726262618 52271 293 Oct-10 344 699 1149 317
10-Nov 001 -46572458071 -67101 -044 Nov-10 344 666 1072 316
10-Dec 668 71205616987 60114 502 Dec-10 367 714 1136 332
11-Jan 237 14260916813 02413 151 Jan-11 376 724 1139 337
11-Feb 343 -08196213636 14822 271 Feb-11 389 718 1156 346
11-Mar 004 -25144800567 -53504 026 Mar-11 389 700 1094 347
11-Apr 296 51621261523 44419 292 Apr-11 401 736 1142 357
11-May -113 -18535770592 -51957 -088 May-11 396 722 1083 354
11-Jun -167 08676483656 -46402 -14 Jun-11 389 729 1033 349
11-Jul -203 93387304437 48149 -126 Jul-11 382 797 1083 344
11-Aug -543 3189583693 00543 -469 Aug-11 361 822 1083 328
11-Sep -703 -41599527992 34989 -619 Sep-11 335 788 1121 308
11-Oct 1093 -13852548076 -6243 834 Oct-11 372 777 1051 333
11-Nov -022 39284953285 -00578 -096 Nov-11 371 808 1050 330
11-Dec 102 01889893545 02082 061 Dec-11 375 809 1053 332
12-Jan 448 -01521632453 -04526 426 Jan-12 392 808 1048 346
12-Feb 432 -22430032837 14221 342 Feb-12 409 790 1063 358
12-Mar 329 -12258940456 -21399 158 Mar-12 422 780 1040 364
12-Apr -063 13756177692 -18216 -038 Apr-12 420 791 1021 363
12-May -601 43616823461 38067 -528 May-12 394 825 1060 343
12-Jun 412 -61107318666 -83896 324 Jun-12 411 775 971 355
12-Jul 139 -2662867044 20145 115 Jul-12 416 754 991 359
12-Aug 225 -29540623033 -22929 186 Aug-12 426 732 968 365
12-Sep 258 -47724948882 -20234 22 Sep-12 437 697 948 373
12-Oct -185 -18050840884 -36659 -098 Oct-12 429 684 914 370
12-Nov 058 -03984415062 -0944 079 Nov-12 431 682 905 373
12-Dec 091 -17220762656 24366 124 Dec-12 435 670 927 377
13-Jan 518 -04335912154 32593 387 Jan-13 458 667 957 392
13-Feb 136 -29598734504 01523 08 Feb-13 464 647 959 395
13-Mar 375 -04786782014 2166 255 Mar-13 481 644 979 405
13-Apr 193 11854540053 29259 181 Apr-13 490 652 1008 412
13-May 234 -43222576245 -06784 082 May-13 502 624 1001 416
13-Jun -134 06875789801 10553 -177 Jun-13 495 628 1012 408
13-Jul 509 06412005306 -19554 423 Jul-13 520 632 992 426
13-Aug -29 11512128942 -11474 -214 Aug-13 505 639 981 417
13-Sep 314 -19925877399 -05148 361 Sep-13 521 626 976 432
13-Oct 46 -07538953205 -06933 349 Oct-13 545 622 969 447
13-Nov 305 27584740935 46402 189 Nov-13 562 639 1014 455
13-Dec 253 19377872096 15067 18 Dec-13 576 651 1029 463
14-Jan -346 -08961192857 -51141 -251 Jan-14 556 645 976 452
14-Feb 457 -00139276726 -05865 399 Feb-14 581 645 971 470
14-Mar 084 -34260446582 -18865 037 Mar-14 586 623 952 471
14-Apr 074 22210329784 03199 043 Apr-14 591 637 955 473
14-May 235 -07288421342 07134 197 May-14 605 632 962 483
14-Jun 207 05841054246 00135 195 Jun-14 617 636 962 492
14-Jul -138 -00888949644 03097 -153 Jul-14 609 636 965 485
14-Aug 4 18791535569 48657 313 Aug-14 633 648 1012 500
14-Sep -14 69028951277 63915 -221 Sep-14 624 692 1077 489
14-Oct 244 21563513841 15927 194 Oct-14 639 707 1094 498
14-Nov 269 72204527611 104647 19 Nov-14 657 758 1209 508 LTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98)
14-Dec -025 76468641712 47745 -044 Dec-14 655 816 1266 506 Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02)
15-Jan -3 54094515689 113573 -159 Jan-15 635 860 1410 497 Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09)
15-Feb 575 -50846010492 -16603 45 Feb-15 672 817 1387 520
15-Mar -158 65245129876 57568 -083 Mar-15 661 870 1467 516
15-Apr 096 -88441663253 -51219 09 Apr-15 667 793 1392 520
15-May 129 40875447394 08884 073 May-15 676 825 1404 524
15-Jun -194 -66047202646 -62159 -171 Jun-15 663 771 1317 515
15-Jul 21 80060563143 34205 126 Jul-15 677 833 1362 522
15-Aug -603 -10026780942 -24342 -522 Aug-15 636 824 1329 494
15-Sep -247 36089130828 34355 -247 Sep-15 620 854 1374 482
15-Oct 844 -16993598229 -58073 637 Oct-15 673 839 1294 513
15-Nov 03 48441920313 30487 01 Nov-15 675 880 1334 513
15-Dec -158 11998205926 -10345 -173 Dec-15 664 891 1320 504
16-Jan -496 31480723033 48626 -453 Jan-16 631 919 1384 482
16-Feb -013 33572073647 44379 -002 Feb-16 630 950 1446 481
16-Mar 678 -61786855584 -39621 601 Mar-16 673 891 1388 510
16-Apr 039 -31282642584 09914 082 Apr-16 676 863 1402 515
16-May 18 -08911812015 -5253 107 May-16 688 855 1328 520
16-Jun 026 65324823204 94059 03 Jun-16 690 911 1453 522
16-Jul 369 21567955023 02767 348 Jul-16 715 931 1457 540
16-Aug 014 -15149 -44038 024 Aug-16 716 917 1393 541
16-Sep 002 10335 0967 025 Sep-16 716 926 1407 542
-41363
Correllation 100 -022 -015 097
skew -04 02 01 -08
Kurt 198 469 -028 186

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 8

bull Momentum and Trend Following are somewhat interchangeable terms

bull That which has done well recently will continue to do well

bull That which has done poorly recently will continue to do poorly

bull Buy what is going up sell what is going down

Ex if SampP 500 has a positive 1-year return buygo long Ex if oil has a negative 1-year return sellshort

bull This results in a volatile yet low correlation return vs risky assets (eg equities) over a full market cycle

Often a positive correlation during strong (extended) bull markets and a negative correlation during major bear markets

Description ndash What is Systematic Trend Following

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 9

bull Trend horizon or lookback period = the length of time that the signal is ldquolooking backrdquo to see if the total return index is higher (lower) today than 30 days 3 months 1 year ago etc

bull Moving average (MA) crossover is a methodology to identify a trend - if short term MA is above longer term MA = Uptrend (buy market)- if short term MA is below longer term MA = Downtrend (sell market)

bull The trend horizon of a moving average is half of its moving average ndash this makes sense

Trend Following Terminology

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Example The average lookback of an equally weighted moving average is total days in the moving average divided by two

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 10

bull Manage long and short positions according to systematic signals

bull Implemented in futures and forwards (currency) markets (see Appendix)

bull Investable universe includes liquid markets across the globe Equities = typically broad indices such as SampP 500 Nikkei 225 etc Fixed Income = typically sovereign bondsrates such as US 10-year Treasury Currencies = typically major currencies such as JPY GBP EUR AUD CAD CHF Commodities = energy metals and agriculture components

bull Strategy implementation volatility is customizable (range anywhere from roughly 5-30 (capable of offsetting equity asymp 18-20)

bull Systematic = rules-based implementation

bull Related terms = managed futures CTAs (commodity trading advisors)

How do systematic trend following managers invest

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 11

Basic Trend Following Example

bull Single Asset Example 21 day average price gt 252 day average price = long position 21 day average price lt 252 day average price = short position

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 12

bull The RISICrsquos Trend Following allocation and corresponding managers should be compiled based on assessing the following criteria

Trend Horizons Short asymp lt1 month Medium asymp 1-11 months Long asymp12+ months

Systematic implementation = quantitatively-oriented firmso Graduate (PhD Masters) backgrounds in mathematics physics computer scienceo Straight forward strategy design (ie humility)

Focus on global futures markets (ie utilize forwards on limited basis)

Strong focus on risk management and diversification

Target gt15 annual standard deviationo Required in order to meaningfully impact portfolio

RISIC Mandate ndash Trend Following Allocation

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 13

Why medium-term trends

o Trend Horizons Short asymp lt1 month | Medium asymp 1-11 months | Long asymp12+ months

o Medium to long-term trends provide most robust return patterns - whyo Short term trends are too short (risk getting whipsawed in choppy markets)o Long term trends are too long (longer time to turn lower hit ratios)

o The average of all trend horizons traded is the horizon of the strategy

Using a larger number of moving average signals reduces the dependency on individual data points and leads to an increased robustness of the strategy vs more concentrated strategies shorter drawdown periods

What length of trend is best How many

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 14

bull Benchmarking Trend Following strategies is imperfectbull Primarily due to different volatility targets markets traded and trend horizons (lookback)

bull Benchmark characteristicsbull Construction based on consistently applied tradingrisk-management rulesbull Inclusive of markets traded by managers (rates currency commodities equities)bull Broad scalable investible published available at low cost as a simple option bull Comparable to the strategies run by managers that will be sourced

bull Institutional investors track several major benchmarks bull MLM 3X IndexTM (Investable rules-based)bull Credit Suisse Managed Futures Liquid IndexTM 15 Target Volatility (Investable rules-based)bull Societe Generale Trend IndexTM (Uninvestable 10 largest trend managers)

Trend Following Benchmarks

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 15

Investable Trend Following Benchmark Comparisons

Source Mount Lucas Management Credit Suisse

Several distinctions between indices can produce different performance behaviors

Selected Investable STF Benchmark Characteristics

MLM Index 3X trade (with interest on cash)

Credit Suisse Managed Futures Liquid Indextrade

15 Target VolBasic trend signal Time-series momentum Moving Average Crossover

of look-back periods utilized 1 16Range of look-back periods only 12-months 1-month to 9-months

Average look-back period 12-months 5 monthsMarkets traded

Number of markets 22 31

Major market segmentsFixed Income (5)

Currencies (6) Commodities (11)

Fixed Income (4) Currencies (5)

Commodities (17) (in 4 aggregated contracts)

Equities (5)Contracts traded 22 18Trading Frequency Monthly Daily

Volatility Framework

Leveraged to set volatility at 3-times non-levered index volatility Volatility is not

bounded but results from construction

Leveraged to target volatility at an expected forward-looking standard deviation of 15

(within a range of variation)SampP 500

1995-2016 Volatility

Index Volatility 1995-2016 141 147 149Inclusion of return on cash Yes YesYear of Inception Index 1970 1995

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 16

The Credit Suisse MF Liquid Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLMtrade 3x Index

Several years where indices diverge particularly in more recent calendar years but both provided major offset in severe down markets-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Annu

al R

etur

ns -

Calendar Year Returns

MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol 7030 Portfolio

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 17

The Credit Suisse MF Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLM 3x Index

CSMF IndexTM

15 volhas produced a similar but more consistent return pattern versus MLM 3X IndexTM

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

Growth of $1 ndash Index Comparisons

MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol

SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio

Returns to systematic trend following are episodic with long periods of little going on

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 18

The Credit Suisse MF Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLM 3x Index

Comparative Performance Statistics

MLM 3x and Credit Suisse 15 Vol exhibit similar statistical characteristics

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Periods Ending 93020161 Year 85 124 07 24 162 01 125 105 12 154 125 12

3 Years 139 145 10 130 156 08 79 90 09 112 108 105 Years 33 129 03 46 138 03 120 92 13 164 111 15

10 Years 58 163 03 79 144 05 62 124 04 72 153 0420 Years 98 141 05 117 147 06 71 121 04 79 154 04

Statistical MeasuresLargest Drawdown - period

Largest Drawdown - -5095Largest Drawdown - of months 16

Recovery PeriodRecovery Duration 37

Crisis Period ReturnsLTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98) -100

Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02) -206Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09) -388

SampP 500

Nov-07 - Feb-09

Mar-09 - Mar-12

113 127 -145

Jun-09 - Jul-11 Dec-12 - Nov-14 Mar-09 - Apr-1126 24

326 277 -309

121 143 -88

26

-2509 -277 -42163 21 16

MLM 3x Credit Suisse 15 Vol 7030

Mar-09 - May-09 Mar-11 - Nov-12 Nov-07 - Feb-09

Data

Growth of $1 - Selected Indices

SampP 500 Index3466934700347313475934790348203485134881349123494334973350043503435065350963512535156351863521735247352783530935339353703540035431354623549035521355513558235612356433567435704357353576535796358273585535886359163594735977360083603936069361003613036161361923622036251362813631236342363733640436434364653649536526365573658636617366473667836708367393677036800368313686136892369233695136982370123704337073371043713537165371963722637257372883731637347373773740837438374693750037530375613759137622376533768137712377423777337803378343786537895379263795637987380183804738078381083813938169382003823138261382923832238353383843841238443384733850438534385653859638626386573868738718387493877738808388383886938899389303896138991390223905239083391143914239173392033923439264392953932639356393873941739448394793950839539395693960039630396613969239722397533978339814398453987339904399343996539995400264005740087401184014840179402104023840269402994033040360403914042240452404834051340544405754060340634406644069540725407564078740817408484087840909409404096941000410304106141091411224115341183412144124441275413064133441365413954142641456414874151841548415794160941640416714169941730417604179141821418524188341913419444197442005420364206442095421254215642186422174224842278423094233942370424014243042461424914252242552425834261411025910659101109735444795000011129616668719730211748013354685194120205672645138931241965009769575412450699222939992129761187301480581292940470271952513497005569168912137574977766538731422525270106010514357547551179966144953800076712951470846209378406315087940415803691151452745893837461447585345253298514781293960381431561348081035090416044412880716591725737049449876516915674558707691797290421862691918113092871532211736864475451223718405552846356619195264510146997352040123602015828222025174407362882207917646405505612193115334285272921198652821201449221801504468230752256164903450843522812083338791482244568345475183512570902447635128825968685623562435255220242308371642655821841460915226276701299414293224770902915189862391787177920535525862394754854749274296558769989482900960405551408930222205505034578292822949138280023045358671038112431632140516072873308856219998935533259977402088765131582661071435956314279060321859173056678140690402232501658669961042331614423409612513511465129484386633351895799842701327215449692256753592171206721594134840468533992741341262389290458933496915703059332534423638180916072365613461119509613463090703723995334485457227683547317680031981420853192366641381297733056956571503342300421621321822428140493269215101303270095962331173053020056052787829788316686907052949639118337536127649917095296064254158037939961412590124564646146627887871187545059281332844539954552772253850096712227187493507898459282097432637954442650023282200944263041310991265712443127696486875822525637361608997226743065681956152020960944423275221988055075325237232831515192618932191643052508121921342220045324092102208674464422621226000986067275229750234673192224185807204046941244953855362587424926504321696896254125711559699925143197901716707265663029029538712680008636849986528204410894209262872337205466271291226269262225212868287525963656228232554118060267286193401094776962917455530760156628208877526919953283217130370276322862758753782752629065589627156293024274600705612312709993712960313050798698663641131148654713355772305973235249293743001597437795571630970482363174709310138410384831563216755592511472831874831166196183321330172986423731596395909755043279073967514378332800576897046323336697921848180483376070062371705534182709381513519346407576872258013364310386583369433690204211245862338990834773555873470588166411665135601293411050863367618955762511183746037159219988637984816794490683385583875280874937802643132536975382260327356213913991944598580941941312634650714166406268449155123173936741272313143239957923913978401414523502683611964211144263762814340351184335375292400727611634612043766839549365352836444172640109791362874626977573238054662131138102385493727388428953529966061695843935003143467775993551068904805874132346686653876708269156779646908124983132286826009252479534890663612311955100993806420657318827379658224668999566581152461698228251029425993071592102619260450577352868252801406410007451229025371814087202301080181827526562954800904455345831320889587226666319253827562601433077606897703477631730127115322853364345378037681734175020350106773314444362241332432979989220961107431888864653504814304506768576317473316687723333249734427218568199134344306612900559553673062946423169376011453825339853889086466915490138906421015022561400580510770672323960539509989637438943985001728101381534221061930223608169128582674335451483884331213721163310728886371297675144528233750849114310024239188871546311134088183079711177142226843030336747419608139192456253943896900269896410638545256101574163464210351613742571421550845248436697642268570534286187358866019543110472455474422435027777548192424575622164251887746378506256857133481177002414892834904637185615003550194056957583948495214565943523245204209873500485850532877871689719521196102368607855451711230775638156179884233142952576012353042414745560823256271471758149528790830782586379848326737555907190592043554660460095709565786617116196907537966085999933902138963294399312582256240827772220609663931039698627927656507846665210166548665770485471663522057973709076671745763071973566611321800154363466747904894358454676089528674956696629733918186625367689583304685437636079014314129056203678626605700767272691026912224674745090999929526640841185621305963114554628144894630325057071283167306109594071613675686034214884936878483828307528568963678862611273715084386126416237160855042669932271622872136784661MLM Index 3X 34669347003473134759347903482034851348813491234943349733500435034350653509635125351563518635217352473527835309353393537035400354313546235490355213555135582356123564335674357043573535765357963582735855358863591635947359773600836039360693610036130361613619236220362513628136312363423637336404364343646536495365263655736586366173664736678367083673936770368003683136861368923692336951369823701237043370733710437135371653719637226372573728837316373473737737408374383746937500375303756137591376223765337681377123774237773378033783437865378953792637956379873801838047380783810838139381693820038231382613829238322383533838438412384433847338504385343856538596386263865738687387183874938777388083883838869388993893038961389913902239052390833911439142391733920339234392643929539326393563938739417394483947939508395393956939600396303966139692397223975339783398143984539873399043993439965399954002640057400874011840148401794021040238402694029940330403604039140422404524048340513405444057540603406344066440695407254075640787408174084840878409094094040969410004103041061410914112241153411834121441244412754130641334413654139541426414564148741518415484157941609416404167141699417304176041791418214185241883419134194441974420054203642064420954212542156421864221742248422784230942339423704240142430424614249142522425524258342614110148884646900895103340591859474421072408712997243110940677971075865114262418660692781160092612677171142959157168208311013103426890634110783733289700331137038224450235111679226409959909121850894347440231242433353496411812252167585248812126896699822459641328653866929275813351606121318145134081055440927281296797928471894713619392434367088143576578138179231509218792763344715752141625393705159741476392170381624588692915244715961946131990337158166634405606991596268567466747615854045132050956160762782421028591674471548787969116334608788312481167136836594916961724103293485745617540016237536971184317397396999281833207803473638519081906293617161199528158418133362015627484786143521495947913924032218083936204276442354434329164940125568449301383946244569562533616392392098972026799324768457163719559259133315331014382621527584284674826443486642972855246776974677741692522251779160873425363596849993599255718459950524222543332082009850425755097037285197263905469237608912593318215612296269111264944554352772336103456553228413595450075206282512675271448142755300091516830227662953436071924283321999650090952858120804002444629274590427040774314817804441657153177213234675698932724829006272378344643433993104513357024175828066833541251801571748340849392335919133573122662643302134183224213506169350375186287367593498251493609266634218858110597834333267389762584413368122399944071733998101148189912334494512142795573371605936289772133754249508694474336728934548908533149571666931522831544831262756059321576109118041663364182590872654433313630471808207345352304220459553602010422381642353506087423034153511404375039457388026730482139434188411671450271744330063747749886421923848037816734253178733277496646190270333054864454404709212399464278353529314546427285481394055114540367249408701545841124640575002469076108389668847569518484822714849610768837257251060571175497652219113860765338492514839465369294843558030123659847601745376581057473128124445944394704277905596145950343427344960032520567863524614445442972190172910554497265868140495541039832423297543007691886491815371693301544380252432959673518953528883825581519765406434421783125752892673579868639554995535038222757554936841166908551543447906696125637801167088788657228607789353605575252875755654567950807540961575797433537416528573133681365925715511663633801610754124923718312337523635162123404735230715880167218252724277206795183511682380451475985133054437969212552622290028893799520491768101300335192278665029281450635738492353615078156340236386551021488843485043513646773187677665083519832107603248375870074608462508314598385507925268571318619042852184159214284254521628972131248554191254093339198585232375325283725845509247309335557767157307764609593111186249949546161219094094592654773180599687912503152135379287295149766029792115163411843563236063692083157713540857190831538127088974503174200586004758054979499215967270571947536747268892087788668714567833349511720355827928642302366600225106747576396402285420570113652974281025352986455580729791857567329116090210022649469842354643846346355313413052864342027491780147668002375855000886775240605615865267375078330068803658099901409815496233192816727965167131078552540018674691151011573536987953442583287466625072738788234713691521499241957238694169177803971793642853250548699884060217257537360129583255957972237039097739091728638025868266767966835670147050482209445615305849787895714812564137769813515439796780750502764271417809031126182080138078000781649011678968109588554389780000442351743847907302670362232982521940949887469774792464073246567541607708880763873188239184893966696953342110148546843727482284168568164592314229058669907460484101416670028005841815364726036177634292644162067518287266517983125485561662362591028781749627913830961134966319400177769446392149927453023662647807316842243621755084290590616389060372158093465128667668604236454503711708577364536047495606406623250136877504976370927279553024363244932772003528636143498551355266355779990150757647521485590334586922192146698701170714589328632549758205028463395178161839371290312886033501192088568816590408878332148698689561611674479293629886653179825347924837850757708360031927344283254956769909807824201775560706285394650126758993839434877515595628800987149600684889065832057726926918696888484690189495394480839779789087039133391421863001611292771298553107031643975291118372363297819930836093202313829167348572263920392620931197582674Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol3466934700347313475934790348203485134881349123494334973350043503435065350963512535156351863521735247352783530935339353703540035431354623549035521355513558235612356433567435704357353576535796358273585535886359163594735977360083603936069361003613036161361923622036251362813631236342363733640436434364653649536526365573658636617366473667836708367393677036800368313686136892369233695136982370123704337073371043713537165371963722637257372883731637347373773740837438374693750037530375613759137622376533768137712377423777337803378343786537895379263795637987380183804738078381083813938169382003823138261382923832238353383843841238443384733850438534385653859638626386573868738718387493877738808388383886938899389303896138991390223905239083391143914239173392033923439264392953932639356393873941739448394793950839539395693960039630396613969239722397533978339814398453987339904399343996539995400264005740087401184014840179402104023840269402994033040360403914042240452404834051340544405754060340634406644069540725407564078740817408484087840909409404096941000410304106141091411224115341183412144124441275413064133441365413954142641456414874151841548415794160941640416714169941730417604179141821418524188341913419444197442005420364206442095421254215642186422174224842278423094233942370424014243042461424914252242552425834261411018462101362837934799991085448004538323111929118787182351207652511407176612019125390204581117484546864171731138109225682759411830542971141973121282349239248191253561020678453113125047134317747138373303172500361331459748985528213803323105317908144737919185125151412776697511663614531058211188315137577152931888721415729437616425115318985323494783165982278309038621803231471549395617904050860922647176145960706541091733942085083835175478753683071291781330453112814217978309170999982178327747582607391891163979836075817798727619506824189722689263713871946922853862876201326619703110722104247709741140121084225371972662212855164715988862206722706401835322669441690595415238021656835493992409319476336215824715883382021251271921183062991962754716579502454626218979196217438257775040245115282671023723013445526347004714041855255795955077359592495813923487551426251544884444464257360170460037412686083540701638126872519870418432268999567132061262705837055829019925763194593147083265313757663309472813103200541033527419823254249551277010409615451362676529979786414226160056073535038263894797652999412548730262056363225800821930099183269664772640791342707517913393063628270088014648396313954310549318153084717264241954307157328397901933299419518611299136098849970540673374596302831080134120070774442652341385979728731753396520803376895345726418142448733666639557515736237492416134674511343543009042022533332642022114852532434638542450811315841698852292073039414153229354430189376200790483316853805490444573357411439819244935075011608249249360984302969547423856135399925536837040956933772726354401578979658723774972210786050840695295174214756416994515826385033964521149932298139713282327467319427164404503527264170307833354900940084206535718971410646261433761244217189272270611745540752200966779456751429607118284972013362131246351043335537376455539648008468581965376016632204691248114327415071871465643724717227545473136402847931445785433903947054319063502047815646472216278699063479607213661057945178227960527846352191618525558194503566656014366215072099607706301949091279752110903474678311307085914813726995314497449313263458100307501108068680081651265560301474542535683580046564785086503081795148954583264570743744560523185534007515884008061665413858330466678433295622111342960827866909373871666130868051874230552771652422845510701696432876208278608866200600401871004659472507041330465932874203479539697809804734914257004524104654454705380793625480346959025919015347688813432197833827357071618484301576055052128972793782966226803700147344207548094170970392760506973007753442576737939978018203711477063777852829118623665779019542537975168470879331063159292969340707904458913438647549674528465612369693250484829245469892748812978175263532882565884241246206833661953571965958747281414049210197798367540078193102939236528189951046893064884057110450275014424337105381618272956461035480834966252810098081586249346103444040903827289943765319962205110100628217884611012827363731696104489043958535041025208883265320710924810397674245105958862062210699973907685915891710079521394402054104113593977485571045082886122542310633415292259892107173767394075751033610606190315107818092913984761091714256162410911487792520462763107169501545471921136118889613764111388603444944021115574053252049810939037910685213114249390356399391083133347816519510328737942111374108260563452860941083193489388158411210933463883606105110348877333521050495950956824310526830835267162104791863989067431062821090868559510400777823450634102113172546186561060003146855022697107312284647369906353909062158296792111202812716948336196247350049135711396291183690494702807101941926996967356997999572105795140647295866841122666457979433169013834081008090404106009810012515188045546101181772608249919920326422666829806500597293140997560167322182769688378268213806910137938396615464102906867144372699764410705174233597071424363883869524017194325919595544845253305679622646217934274796239452751736962965375063369090821012347317827440610770514966463814109420569583346841208711039285353212664209478560323141025217416688541386837757319192514666752333325439139155359455648431403916156690523913166501323067976136168615008235161328539985817047137418197702979161294379107077740413338408429152194132004225939526151384230634300615614456614056202426138838285506816291402147282693308713284924859334293145344916066784191457470854495409713932867530051409140675983590670087030 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

Performance Stats

Performance stats (2)

Correlations

Annual Returns

Calendar Year Returns

MLM Index 3X1995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420150218999999999999970311015404060000000000000370000000000000007E-202110000000000000240000000000000001E-30151022600000000000001014599999999999999005-008-90000000000000011E-30379-96999999999999989E-299000000000000005E-2013400000000000001-017199999999999999-27999999999999997E-2025390999999999999998E-2Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015031303639999999999999901749999999999999902690000000000000252999999999999999E-297000000000000003E-2008013300000000000001031700573999999999999996E-2025011203439999999999999712E-271999999999999995E-2-72999999999999995E-2-01189999999999999901102310000000000000142000000000000003E-27030 Portfolio1995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420150265000000000000010145999999999999990218999999999999970196999999999999980182-55999999999999994E-2-88000000000000009E-2-0138000000000000010247011469000000000000006E-2015174999999999999997E-2-03070238999999999999990135000000000000012E-301350000000000000102280000000000000190999999999999998E-2-2E-3

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 19

The Credit Suisse MF Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLM 3x Index Correlations

bull Both MLM and Credit Suisse exhibit similar negative correlations with US equities

bull MLM and Credit Suisse indices are highly correlated with one another

Correlations ndash various periods ending 93016

SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM 7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099MLM Index 3X -054 -056 MLM Index 3X -023 -026

Credit Suisse Index -059 -055 080 Credit Suisse Index -021 -020 082

SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM 7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099MLM Index 3X -031 -033 MLM Index 3X -036 -036

Credit Suisse Index -027 -027 076 Credit Suisse Index -021 -021 066

1 Year Correlation 3 Year Correlation

10 Year Correlation5 Year Correlation

SampP 500 7030 MLM 7030 Portfolio 098MLM Index 3X -027 -026

Credit Suisse Index -018 -016 066

20 Year Correlation

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 20

Systematic Trend Following modeled with the MLM 3X IndexTM in the AL study Long history calculated back to pre-1970 PCA used data going back to 1970 Simple captures the beta captures big down markets reasonable for modeling However has only one lookback period (12 months) slow to respond to trends Investible but not inclusive of the full opportunity set (no equities)

Benchmark recommendation Credit Suisse Managed Futures Liquid IndexTM15 vol Diversified across 18 deep and liquid futures contracts in major markets Diversified across 16 lookback horizons from trading 30 days to 12 months Utilizes a moving average crossover method to determine the signal Equally risk weighted over 288 potentially different signals (long or short) Most comparable to the strategies that will be sourced

Recommended RISIC Mandate Benchmark

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 21

Due Diligence Plan Update Relating To STF and Platform Manager

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 22

Due Diligence Process Outline Platform Manager

bull Provide a short list of platform implementation platform managers

Draft DDQ prepared to be issued

bull Send DDQ to short list platform managers

bull Conduct a review of platform managers DDQ responses - rate proposals

PCA and Rhode Island investment staff

bull Conduct onsite due diligence at platform managers offices in NYC

PCA and Rhode Island investment staff

bull Platform manager recommendation

PCA memo to SIC SIC interview recommended platform manager

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 23

Due Diligence Process Outline STF Managers

bull Provide a short list of systematic trend following managers

bull Draft DDQ prepared to be issued

bull Send a DDQ to short list systematic trend following managers

bull Conduct a review of STF managers DDQ responses - rate proposals

bull PCA and Rhode Island investment staff

bull Systematic trend following managers recommendation

bull PCA memo to SIC

bull SIC interview recommended systematic trend following managers

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 24

Other Implementation Crisis Risk OffsetSM Class Managers

Other bull Platform manager to conduct operational due diligence at recommended STF

Managerrsquos office

bull STF Managers hired contracting other administration 1Q 2017

bull Fund long-duration Fixed Income and systematic trend following accounts pari passu

bull Primary source of funds ndash Equity HF portfolio redemptions

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 25

Appendix

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 26

Model Output Focus Portfolio Comparison of Trend IndicesFocus Portfolio

Line Strategic Class Trend

MLM 3x Index

TrendCS MF Index

1 US Equity 200 2002 Non-US Equity 200 2003 Private Growth 150 1504 Income Class 60 605 Crisis Risk Offset 80 806 Inflation Protection 100 1007 IG Fixed Income 115 1158 Absolute Return 65 659 Cash 30 30

10 Total 1000 1000

Asset Only Statistics11 Median Scenario Comp Return (22-year period) 73 7312 Average Scenario Standard Deviation (22-year period) 118 12113 Sharpe Ratio (22-year period) 041 04014 Sortino Ratio (22-year period) 074 074

15 Best Year Worst Year 298 -208

306 -210

16 Average 2-year Loss of Worst 10 -160 -164AssetLiability Statistics

17 Percent of Scenarios lt50 [during first 5-years] 75 7918 Median Funded Ratio [end of 5-years] 600 59919 Average Funded Ratio of Worst 10 [end of 5-years] 477 47620 Median Funded Ratio [end of 22-years] 994 99121 Average Funded Ratio of Worst 10 [end of 22-years] 671 66522 Median Avg Ann Employer Cntrbs Rate [during 22-yrs] 206 20623 Average of Yrs w Employer Cntrbs Rate gt30 [during 22-yrs] 44 47

bull For modeling purposes both indices have same volatility assumptions

bull Modeling the Focus Portfolio with the CS MF Index results in the same long-term return (line 11) and slightly higher risk (line 12)

bull Portfolio results are similar regardless of the trend following index used in modeling the total portfolio

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 27

Comparing Modeling of MLM 3x and CS MF IndexMLM 3x Index Credits Suisse MF Index

1970 1607 9491971 648 -5801972 278 12791973 9190 63231974 1458 51501975 -620 -20551976 851 14651977 374 15591978 -178 4531979 2107 31971980 -568 4861981 2839 18891982 1278 13801983 -1005 -11941984 1281 0881985 239 5561986 456 2281987 643 10851988 188 -10381989 809 0551990 657 3771991 -604 -7281992 -557 -12351993 481 14301994 549 -7851995 384 14781996 409 21071997 077 0061998 992 10741999 -564 -12982000 3782 0122001 043 0492002 -972 11652003 1191 39572004 992 0172005 456 1152006 -1329 24292007 -461 4192008 4324 42422009 -811 -3752010 1370 5092011 1740 -16162012 -1910 -22872013 -127 10762014 2995 28432015 1359 086

-4000

-2000

000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Annual Modeled Returns

$0

$500

$1000

$1500

$2000

$2500

Growth of $100

MLM 3x Credit Suisse Managed Futures

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 28

The Credit Suisse Managed Futures Indextrade is a systematic trend following strategy that trades a total of 18 futures contracts providing liquid and diversified exposure to market trends across asset classes geographies and time horizons The strategy tracks 16 time horizon signals to identify trends across various horizons ranging from shorter-term moving average (60 trading days) to longer-term moving average (360 trading days) The average length of moving average signal utilized is a 210 trading days moving average

bull Shortest signal compares the 60 (trading) day MA (moving average) versus 5 day MA

bull Longest signal compares the 360 (trading) day MA (moving average) versus 5 day MA

bull For each of the 18 different futures contracts (markets) total return index

- If average price in most recent 5 days is gt average price over 60 days =gt Buy the market (go long)

- If average price in most recent 5 days is lt average price over 60 days=gt Sell the market (go short)

bull Signals are equally weighted resulting in a portfolio of long and short exposures When signals align (strong trends) the index is more long or more short

Recommended Benchmark Index

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 29

The Credit Suisse Managed Futures Indextrade Markets Traded

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 30

bull Diversifies and balances risk across the four major futures market typesbull Rebalancing incorporates recent trailing volatility of each instrument traded

The Credit Suisse Managed Futures Indextrade Risk Allocation

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 31

Instruments Forwards

bull Agreement to buysell an asset at a future time for a specified price Long position = agree to buy at the future date Short position = agree to sell at the future date

bull Over-the-counter instrument (ie customized have counterparty risk)

bull Different than an option in that both buyer and seller have obligations

bull Essentially a contract that states Asset type and amount Future date of trade Future price of trade Settlement options (ie cash payment or delivery of asset)

bull Currency forwards can be more liquid than currency futures

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 32

Instruments Futures

bull Futures = analogous to forwards but exchange tradedstandardized Exchanges (eg CME Group) provide numerous services

o Guarantee contracts will be honored backed by exchange with is backed by all of the exchange members (de minimis counterparty risk)

o Facilitate transactionso Set margin requirementso Organize daily settlementmarking to marketo Arrange settlementdelivery procedures

bull Extremely liquid instruments

bull Vast majority of futures contracts do not lead to delivery

bull Regulated by the US Government Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 33

Futures Transaction Example

bull November crude oil contract (one contract = 1000 barrels of oil)

bull ldquoPricerdquo of contract = delivery price (ie futures are free) 1000 barrels $43 = $43000 of exposure (ie notional value)

o Longbuy position = agree to buy 1000 barrels in November $43barrelo Shortsell position = agree to sell 1000 barrels in November $43barrel

Initial margin = $3190 (ie money that must be deposited to trade)o Typically equal to roughly one-day maximum price fluctuationo Margin = embedded leverageo Exchanges require daily settlementmark to market

bull At contract expiration (or anytime while contract is traded) | longbuy ldquoSpotrdquo price = $50

o Gain = ($50-$43) x 1000 = $7000

ldquoSpotrdquo price = $40o Loss = ($40-$43) x 1000 = ($3000)

Gainslosses for shortsell positionare the opposite

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 34

Leverage in Trend Following Strategies

bull Futures contain embedded leverage

bull Trend Following strategies leverage asymp 0x-7x Averagefull-cycle leverage asymp 3x

bull Without leverage (ie 1x) strategy volatility may be asymp 6 (ie bond-like)

bull Leveragerisk oversight is key component of strategy selection

bull Leverage protections Futures have daily price limits and daily settlement

o Price limit = maximum change in contract priceo Exchanges will close out positions if failed settlement

Long and short positions partially offset leverage risks

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 35

CROSM Implementation Considerations (LongShort aspects)bull Long position ndash give up cash to buy a security (traditional)

bull Short position ndash sell an un-owned security receive cash liable for securityrsquos position

bull Because of the liability short positions require collateral as security collateral levels based on potential security movements not total value of positions

bull Minimum collateral requirements allow managers to apply leverage

bull Unlike typical leveraged situations collateral requirements re-set every day

bull Longshort portfolios contain many offsetting long and short positions itrsquos the net position that matters

bull Longshort portfolios utilize ldquoprimary brokersrdquo to effect these types of trades

bull In total across entire CROSM class hundreds of netted ls positions

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 36

DISCLOSURES This document is provided for informational purposes only It does not constitute an offer of securities of any of the issuers that may be described herein Informationcontained herein may have been provided by third parties including investment firms providing information on returns and assets under management and may not have beenindependently verified The past performance information contained in this report is not necessarily indicative of future results and there is no assurance that the investment in question willachieve comparable results or that the Firm will be able to implement its investment strategy or achieve its investment objectives The actual realized value of currently unrealizedinvestments (if any) will depend on a variety of factors including future operating results the value of the assets and market conditions at the time of disposition any related transactioncosts and the timing and manner of sale all of which may differ from the assumptions and circumstances on which any current unrealized valuations are based

Neither PCA nor PCArsquos officers employees or agents make any representation or warranty express or implied in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained inthis document or any oral information provided in connection herewith or any data subsequently generated herefrom and accept no responsibility obligation or liability (whether direct orindirect in contract tort or otherwise) in relation to any of such information PCA and PCArsquos officers employees and agents expressly disclaim any and all liability that may be based on thisdocument and any errors therein or omissions therefrom Neither PCA nor any of PCArsquos officers employees or agents make any representation of warranty express or implied that anytransaction has been or may be effected on the terms or in the manner stated in this document or as to the achievement or reasonableness of future projections management targetsestimates prospects or returns if any Any views or terms contained herein are preliminary only and are based on financial economic market and other conditions prevailing as of thedate of this document and are therefore subject to change

The information contained in this report may include forward-looking statements Forward-looking statements include a number of risks uncertainties and other factors beyond the control ofthe Firm which may result in material differences in actual results performance or other expectations The opinions estimates and analyses reflect PCArsquos current judgment which maychange in the future

Any tables graphs or charts relating to past performance included in this report are intended only to illustrate investment performance for the historical periods shown Such tables graphsand charts are not intended to predict future performance and should not be used as the basis for an investment decision

All trademarks or product names mentioned herein are the property of their respective owners Indices are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index The index dataprovided is on an ldquoas isrdquo basis In no event shall the index providers or its affiliates have any liability of any kind in connection with the index data or the portfolio described herein Copyingor redistributing the index data is strictly prohibited

The Russell indices are either registered trademarks or trade names of Frank Russell Company in the US andor other countries

The MSCI indices are trademarks and service marks of MSCI or its subsidiaries

Standard and Poorrsquos (SampP) is a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc SampP indices including the SampP 500 are a registered trademark of The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc

CBOE not SampP calculates and disseminates the BXM Index The CBOE has a business relationship with Standard amp Poors on the BXM CBOE and Chicago Board Options Exchange areregistered trademarks of the CBOE and SPX and CBOE SampP 500 BuyWrite Index BXM are servicemarks of the CBOE The methodology of the CBOE SampP 500 BuyWrite Index is owned by CBOEand may be covered by one or more patents or pending patent applications

The Barclays Capital indices (formerly known as the Lehman indices) are trademarks of Barclays Capital Inc

The Citigroup indices are trademarks of Citicorp or its affiliates

The Merrill Lynch indices are trademarks of Merrill Lynch amp Co or its affiliates

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MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15x 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol 7030 Portfolio
1995 0219 0228 0265 1995 0219 0313 0265
1996 0311 0264 0146 1996 0311 0364 0146
1997 0154 014 0219 1997 0154 0175 0219
1998 0406 0209 0197 1998 0406 0269 0197
1999 007 0066 0182 1999 007 0053 0182
2000 0211 0087 -0056 2000 0211 0097 -0056
2001 0004 007 -0088 2001 0004 008 -0088
2002 0151 0112 -0138 2002 0151 0133 -0138
2003 0226 0213 0247 2003 0226 0317 0247
2004 0146 0042 0114 2004 0146 005 0114
2005 005 0063 0069 2005 005 0074 0069
2006 -008 0188 0151 2006 -008 025 0151
2007 -0009 0095 0075 2007 -0009 0112 0075
2008 0379 023 -0307 2008 0379 0344 -0307
2009 -0097 0009 0239 2009 -0097 0012 0239
2010 0099 005 0135 2010 0099 0072 0135
2011 0134 -0048 0002 2011 0134 -0073 0002
2012 -0172 -008 0135 2012 -0172 -0119 0135
2013 -0028 0075 0228 2013 -0028 011 0228
2014 0253 0158 0091 2014 0253 0231 0091
2015 0091 0036 -0002 2015 0091 0042 -0002
Return 110 101 80 Return 110 131 80
StDev 153 93 146 StDev 153 134 146
Corr to 7030 -023 005 100 Corr to 7030 -023 004 100
1 Year Correlation 3 Year Correlation
SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM
7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099
MLM Index 3X -054 -056 MLM Index 3X -023 -026
Credit Suisse Index -059 -055 080 Credit Suisse Index -021 -020 082
5 Year Correlation 10 Year Correlation
SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM
7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099
MLM Index 3X -031 -033 MLM Index 3X -036 -036
Credit Suisse Index -027 -027 076 Credit Suisse Index -021 -021 066
20 Year Correlation
SampP 500 7030 MLM
7030 Portfolio 098
MLM Index 3X -027 -026
Credit Suisse Index -018 -016 066
Correlation to date Correlation to date
SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
SampP 500 Index 1 099 -054 -059 SampP 500 Index 1 099 -023 -021
7030 Portfolio 099 1 -056 -055 7030 Portfolio 099 1 -026 -02
MLM Index 3X -054 -056 1 08 MLM Index 3X -023 -026 1 082
Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -059 -055 08 1 Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -021 -02 082 1
Correlation to date Correlation to date
SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
5 5 5 5 10 Years 10 Years 10 Years 10 Years
SampP 500 Index 1 099 -031 -027 SampP 500 Index 1 099 -036 -021
7030 Portfolio 099 1 -033 -027 7030 Portfolio 099 1 -036 -021
MLM Index 3X -031 -033 1 076 MLM Index 3X -036 -036 1 066
Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -027 -027 076 1 Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -021 -021 066 1
Correlation to date
SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
5 5 5 5
SampP 500 Index 1 098 -027 -018
7030 Portfolio 098 1 -026 -016
MLM Index 3X -027 -026 1 066
Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -018 -016 066 1
MLM 3x Credit Suisse 15 Vol 7030 SampP 500
Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio
Periods Ending 9302016
1 Year 85 124 07 24 162 01 125 105 12 154 125 12
3 Years 139 145 10 130 156 08 79 90 09 112 108 10
5 Years 33 129 03 46 138 03 120 92 13 164 111 15 SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
10 Years 58 163 03 79 144 05 62 124 04 72 153 04 Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date
20 Years 98 141 05 117 147 06 71 121 04 79 154 04 Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g) Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g) Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g) Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g)
1 Year 1543 1246 122 1252 1052 116 846 1244 066 24 162 01
Statistical Measures 3 Years 1116 1083 102 792 897 087 1392 1446 095 130 156 08
Largest Drawdown - period Mar-09 - May-09 Mar-11 - Nov-12 Nov-07 - Feb-09 Nov-07 - Feb-09 5 Years 1637 1112 146 12 915 13 329 1288 025 46 138 03
Largest Drawdown - -2509 -277 -4216 -5095 10 Years 724 1525 041 621 1239 043 58 1627 03 79 144 05
Largest Drawdown - of months 3 21 16 16 20 Years 791 1535 036 711 1212 039 977 1408 053 117 147 06
Recovery Period Jun-09 - Jul-11 Dec-12 - Nov-14 Mar-09 - Apr-11 Mar-09 - Mar-12
Recovery Duration 26 24 26 37 00237 01617
01298 0156
Crisis Period Returns 00464 01383
LTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98) 121 143 -88 -100 00787 01439
Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02) 113 127 -145 -206 01172 01466
Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09) 326 277 -309 -388
MLM Credit Suisse 7030
Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio
Periods Ending 9302016
1 Year 85 124 07 14 90 01 125 105 12
3 Years 139 145 10 90 103 09 79 90 09
5 Years 33 129 03 35 92 04 120 92 13
10 Years 58 163 03 58 97 05 62 124 04
20 Years 98 141 05 91 100 07 71 121 04
Statistical Measures
Largest Drawdown - period Mar-09 - May-09 Mar-11 - Nov-12 Nov-07 - Feb-09
Largest Drawdown - -2509 -1486 -4216
Largest Drawdown - of months 3 21 16
Recovery Period Jun-09 - Jul-11 Dec-12 - Nov-14 Mar-09 - Apr-11
Recovery Duration 26 24 26
Full - history semi-deviation 83 54 83
Full - history skewness 03 02 -08
Full- history kurtosis 47 -01 15
Crisis Period Returns
LTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98) 121 104 -88
Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02) 113 157 -145
Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09) 326 183 -309
SampP 500 Index MLM Index 3X woInt Credit Suisse Index 7030 Portfolio
Return Return Return Return
Total Total Total Total
Jan-73 -149 NA NA NA
Feb-73 -352 NA NA NA
Mar-73 009 NA NA NA
Apr-73 -384 NA NA NA
May-73 -164 NA NA NA
Jun-73 -04 NA NA NA
Jul-73 406 NA NA NA
Aug-73 -342 NA NA NA
Sep-73 427 NA NA NA
Oct-73 013 NA NA NA
Nov-73 -1112 NA NA NA
Dec-73 196 NA NA NA
Jan-74 -071 NA NA NA
Feb-74 -005 NA NA NA
Mar-74 -202 NA NA NA
Apr-74 -359 NA NA NA
May-74 -302 NA NA NA
Jun-74 -112 NA NA NA
Jul-74 -742 NA NA NA
Aug-74 -864 NA NA NA
Sep-74 -115 NA NA NA
Oct-74 168 NA NA NA
Nov-74 -49 NA NA NA
Dec-74 -158 NA NA NA
Jan-75 1273 NA NA NA
Feb-75 639 NA NA NA
Mar-75 255 NA NA NA
Apr-75 509 NA NA NA
May-75 476 NA NA NA
Jun-75 477 NA NA NA
Jul-75 -644 NA NA NA
Aug-75 -176 NA NA NA
Sep-75 -311 NA NA NA
Oct-75 654 NA NA NA
Nov-75 281 NA NA NA
Dec-75 -082 NA NA NA
Jan-76 1217 NA NA NA
Feb-76 -084 NA NA NA
Mar-76 338 NA NA NA
Apr-76 -08 NA NA NA
May-76 -112 NA NA NA
Jun-76 441 NA NA NA
Jul-76 -05 NA NA NA
Aug-76 -02 NA NA NA
Sep-76 258 NA NA NA
Oct-76 -191 NA NA NA
Nov-76 -045 NA NA NA
Dec-76 558 NA NA NA
Jan-77 -473 NA NA NA
Feb-77 -182 NA NA NA
Mar-77 -104 NA NA NA
Apr-77 038 NA NA NA
May-77 -198 NA NA NA
Jun-77 493 NA NA NA
Jul-77 -124 NA NA NA
Aug-77 -172 NA NA NA
Sep-77 015 NA NA NA
Oct-77 -394 NA NA NA
Nov-77 312 NA NA NA
Dec-77 071 NA NA NA
Jan-78 -573 NA NA NA
Feb-78 -202 NA NA NA
Mar-78 297 NA NA NA
Apr-78 901 NA NA NA
May-78 086 NA NA NA
Jun-78 -132 NA NA NA
Jul-78 584 NA NA NA
Aug-78 302 NA NA NA
Sep-78 -031 NA NA NA
Oct-78 -874 NA NA NA
Nov-78 213 NA NA NA
Dec-78 194 NA NA NA
Jan-79 443 NA NA NA
Feb-79 -321 NA NA NA
Mar-79 598 NA NA NA
Apr-79 061 NA NA NA
May-79 -218 NA NA NA
Jun-79 434 NA NA NA
Jul-79 133 NA NA NA
Aug-79 576 NA NA NA
Sep-79 044 NA NA NA
Oct-79 -639 NA NA NA
Nov-79 472 NA NA NA
Dec-79 22 NA NA NA
Jan-80 621 NA NA NA
Feb-80 -001 NA NA NA
Mar-80 -975 NA NA NA
Apr-80 462 NA NA NA
May-80 515 NA NA NA
Jun-80 316 NA NA NA
Jul-80 696 NA NA NA
Aug-80 101 NA NA NA
Sep-80 294 NA NA NA
Oct-80 202 NA NA NA
Nov-80 1065 NA NA NA
Dec-80 -301 NA NA NA
Jan-81 -42 NA NA NA
Feb-81 172 NA NA NA
Mar-81 399 NA NA NA
Apr-81 -194 NA NA NA
May-81 025 NA NA NA
Jun-81 -062 NA NA NA
Jul-81 021 NA NA NA
Aug-81 -578 NA NA NA
Sep-81 -492 NA NA NA
Oct-81 54 NA NA NA
Nov-81 412 NA NA NA
Dec-81 -256 NA NA NA
Jan-82 -13 NA NA NA
Feb-82 -559 NA NA NA
Mar-82 -052 NA NA NA
Apr-82 452 NA NA NA
May-82 -341 NA NA NA
Jun-82 -15 NA NA NA
Jul-82 -177 NA NA NA
Aug-82 1214 NA NA NA
Sep-82 124 NA NA NA
Oct-82 1151 NA NA NA
Nov-82 404 NA NA NA
Dec-82 193 NA NA NA
Jan-83 372 NA NA NA
Feb-83 229 NA NA NA
Mar-83 369 NA NA NA
Apr-83 788 NA NA NA
May-83 -087 NA NA NA
Jun-83 389 NA NA NA
Jul-83 -295 NA NA NA
Aug-83 15 NA NA NA
Sep-83 138 NA NA NA
Oct-83 -116 NA NA NA
Nov-83 211 NA NA NA
Dec-83 -052 NA NA NA
Jan-84 -056 NA NA NA
Feb-84 -352 NA NA NA
Mar-84 173 NA NA NA
Apr-84 092 NA NA NA
May-84 -556 NA NA NA
Jun-84 214 NA NA NA
Jul-84 -124 NA NA NA
Aug-84 1104 NA NA NA
Sep-84 002 NA NA NA
Oct-84 038 NA NA NA
Nov-84 -112 NA NA NA
Dec-84 264 NA NA NA
Jan-85 779 NA NA NA
Feb-85 123 NA NA NA
Mar-85 006 NA NA NA
Apr-85 -009 NA NA NA
May-85 578 NA NA NA
Jun-85 157 NA NA NA
Jul-85 -014 NA NA NA
Aug-85 -086 NA NA NA
Sep-85 -313 NA NA NA
Oct-85 462 NA NA NA
Nov-85 686 NA NA NA
Dec-85 484 NA NA NA
Jan-86 056 NA NA NA
Feb-86 747 NA NA NA
Mar-86 558 NA NA NA
Apr-86 -113 NA NA NA
May-86 532 NA NA NA
Jun-86 169 NA NA NA
Jul-86 -559 NA NA NA
Aug-86 741 NA NA NA
Sep-86 -827 NA NA NA
Oct-86 577 NA NA NA
Nov-86 243 NA NA NA
Dec-86 -255 NA NA NA
Jan-87 1347 NA NA NA
Feb-87 395 NA NA NA
Mar-87 289 NA NA NA
Apr-87 -089 NA NA NA
May-87 087 NA NA NA
Jun-87 505 NA NA NA
Jul-87 507 NA NA NA
Aug-87 373 NA NA NA
Sep-87 -219 NA NA NA
Oct-87 -2153 NA NA NA
Nov-87 -824 NA NA NA
Dec-87 761 NA NA NA
Jan-88 421 NA NA 349
Feb-88 466 NA NA 436
Mar-88 -309 NA NA 036
Apr-88 11 NA NA 066
May-88 086 NA NA -09
Jun-88 458 NA NA 252
Jul-88 -038 NA NA 02
Aug-88 -34 NA NA -286
Sep-88 425 NA NA 359
Oct-88 282 NA NA 344
Nov-88 -143 NA NA 034
Dec-88 174 NA NA 116
Jan-89 731 NA NA 398
Feb-89 -248 NA NA -089
Mar-89 232 NA NA 07
Apr-89 52 NA NA 323
May-89 405 NA NA 14
Jun-89 -057 NA NA 004
Jul-89 903 NA NA 742
Aug-89 195 NA NA -04
Sep-89 -041 NA NA 113
Oct-89 -232 NA NA -171
Nov-89 204 NA NA 23
Dec-89 24 NA NA 194
Jan-90 -671 NA NA -478
Feb-90 13 NA NA -08
Mar-90 264 NA NA -117
Apr-90 -249 NA NA -177
May-90 975 NA NA 786
Jun-90 -067 NA NA -001
Jul-90 -032 NA NA 019
Aug-90 -904 NA NA -722
Sep-90 -487 NA NA -53
Oct-90 -043 NA NA 295
Nov-90 646 NA NA 26
Dec-90 279 NA NA 235
Jan-91 435 NA NA 348
Feb-91 715 NA NA 62
Mar-91 242 NA NA 049
Apr-91 024 NA NA 058
May-91 431 NA NA 257
Jun-91 -458 NA NA -379
Jul-91 466 NA NA 377
Aug-91 237 NA NA 166
Sep-91 -167 NA NA 095
Oct-91 134 NA NA 152
Nov-91 -403 NA NA -26
Dec-91 1144 NA NA 76
Jan-92 -186 -50186134107 NA -101
Feb-92 13 -11806985257 NA 03
Mar-92 -194 -34682100213 NA -245
Apr-92 294 04856690806 NA 135
May-92 049 36691977834 NA 196
Jun-92 -149 3995994645 NA -144
Jul-92 409 58382478439 NA 241
Aug-92 -205 21392596519 NA 003
Sep-92 118 -10417441781 NA 069
Oct-92 035 -11426309261 NA -063
Nov-92 34 -24243841368 NA 231
Dec-92 123 03309287484 NA 157
Jan-93 084 12125566229 NA 109
Feb-93 136 59842293696 NA 136
Mar-93 211 -06484088187 NA 282
Apr-93 -242 09183032136 NA 027
May-93 268 -00124707027 NA 196
Jun-93 029 75565231659 NA 064
Jul-93 -04 34694235802 NA 068
Aug-93 379 26998187389 NA 356
Sep-93 -077 -35544940483 NA -032
Oct-93 207 12906000348 NA 154
Nov-93 -095 39231376084 NA -251
Dec-93 121 23140907663 NA 262
Jan-94 34 -16392143954 NA 357
Feb-94 -271 -5375365439 NA -19
Mar-94 -436 -17526970615 NA -389
Apr-94 128 -31042584129 NA 106
May-94 164 21687630069 NA 058
Jun-94 -245 -02802505425 NA -136
Jul-94 328 -09170406074 NA 249
Aug-94 41 03148132864 NA 3
Sep-94 -245 49091708791 NA -203
Oct-94 225 33710507687 NA 14
Nov-94 -364 -02736669026 NA -3 SampP 500 Index MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol 7030 Portfolio
Dec-94 148 11635880505 NA 095 Dec-94 100 100 100 100
Jan-95 259 1488846469 18462 078 Jan-95 103 101 102 101
Feb-95 39 18245801927 -04746 274 Feb-95 107 103 101 104
Mar-95 295 37741988604 70854 257 Mar-95 110 107 109 106
Apr-95 294 20196669281 31179 254 Apr-95 113 109 112 109
May-95 4 4438151788 78944 291 May-95 117 114 121 112
Jun-95 232 15287989065 -04753 152 Jun-95 120 116 120 114
Jul-95 332 -14769041128 -2252 32 Jul-95 124 114 117 117
Aug-95 025 -36439459991 -31269 016 Aug-95 125 110 114 118
Sep-95 422 05926567612 39491 274 Sep-95 130 111 118 121
Oct-95 -036 2635846499 25163 -064 Oct-95 129 114 121 120
Nov-95 439 27162162082 33589 332 Nov-95 135 117 125 124
Dec-95 193 4331305919 47021 198 Dec-95 138 122 131 126
Jan-96 34 19634168588 54269 207 Jan-96 142 124 138 129
Feb-96 093 -13857157749 -37777 042 Feb-96 144 123 133 130
Mar-96 096 3570816298 36706 074 Mar-96 145 127 138 131
Apr-96 147 47035792726 48573 151 Apr-96 147 133 145 133
May-96 258 04897246276 -23907 119 May-96 151 134 141 134
Jun-96 038 04231657395 28546 021 Jun-96 151 134 145 134
Jul-96 -442 -32825387444 -5322 -362 Jul-96 145 130 138 130
Aug-96 211 50232432929 29044 183 Aug-96 148 136 142 132
Sep-96 563 54206924649 82056 405 Sep-96 156 144 153 137
Oct-96 276 51159466491 83507 144 Oct-96 160 151 166 139
Nov-96 756 43728165918 864 527 Nov-96 173 158 180 147
Dec-96 -198 14093703517 -07113 -113 Dec-96 169 160 179 145
Jan-97 625 17011191838 -16167 314 Jan-97 180 162 176 150
Feb-97 078 -17477703643 -15622 041 Feb-97 181 160 173 150
Mar-97 -411 -0910181567 12022 -309 Mar-97 174 158 175 145
Apr-97 597 09232176853 15126 349 Apr-97 184 160 178 151
May-97 609 -06805906276 09263 543 May-97 195 159 180 159
Jun-97 448 14017438969 -08095 375 Jun-97 204 161 178 165
Jul-97 796 41579104051 60499 584 Jul-97 220 167 189 174
Aug-97 -56 -24491709033 -58848 -401 Aug-97 208 163 178 167
Sep-97 548 23206853381 65934 476 Sep-97 219 167 190 175
Oct-97 -334 3155194786 26194 -317 Oct-97 212 172 195 170
Nov-97 463 1734137994 34076 24 Nov-97 222 175 201 174
Dec-97 172 50839377232 45191 168 Dec-97 226 184 210 177
Jan-98 111 -0540706989 01984 101 Jan-98 228 183 211 178
Feb-98 721 40902523842 09547 561 Feb-98 245 191 213 189
Mar-98 512 4564059454 36725 385 Mar-98 257 200 221 196
Apr-98 101 10197007162 2729 086 Apr-98 260 202 227 197
May-98 -172 66464318242 49967 -174 May-98 255 215 238 194
Jun-98 406 14535097859 12227 237 Jun-98 266 218 241 199
Jul-98 -106 79600070571 25845 -106 143 Jul-98 263 235 247 197
Aug-98 -1446 85969949752 100188 -1191 Aug-98 225 256 272 173
Sep-98 641 -43471273323 13057 462 Sep-98 239 245 275 181
Oct-98 813 -21914686666 -48215 62 Oct-98 259 239 262 192
Nov-98 606 35427775078 -16838 49 Nov-98 274 248 258 202
Dec-98 576 46223079694 36184 48 Dec-98 290 259 267 211
Jan-99 418 11652083769 -13599 243 Jan-99 302 262 263 217
Feb-99 -311 08705260303 -29127 -306 Feb-99 293 264 256 210
Mar-99 4 -66775958823 -24295 326 Mar-99 305 247 250 217
Apr-99 387 22077437514 51823 383 Apr-99 316 252 263 225
May-99 -236 05593377297 -19638 -207 May-99 309 254 257 220
Jun-99 555 0821055256 43706 406 Jun-99 326 256 269 229
Jul-99 -312 -05417097185 00435 -19 Jul-99 316 254 269 225
Aug-99 -049 12651757883 01021 -075 Aug-99 314 258 269 223
Sep-99 -274 24672781685 05889 -147 Sep-99 306 264 271 220
Oct-99 633 -17330628613 -47866 486 Oct-99 325 259 258 231
Nov-99 203 37710155755 29817 248 Nov-99 332 269 265 236
Dec-99 589 30182108515 60293 568 Dec-99 351 277 281 250
Jan-00 -502 24897212667 -25282 -359 Jan-00 334 284 274 241
Feb-00 -189 -05713037029 10256 122 Feb-00 327 283 277 244
Mar-00 978 -24716293218 -3378 621 Mar-00 359 276 268 259
Apr-00 -301 03990582414 -22613 -331 1573 Apr-00 348 277 262 250
May-00 -205 24192880579 0877 -232 May-00 341 283 264 245
Jun-00 247 0878887186 -34187 3 Jun-00 350 286 255 252
Jul-00 -156 24260079771 12301 -165 Jul-00 344 293 258 248
Aug-00 621 75396102385 45179 559 Aug-00 366 315 270 262
Sep-00 -528 09222855204 04031 -385 Sep-00 346 318 271 252
Oct-00 -042 299852918 44133 -131 Oct-00 345 327 283 248
Nov-00 -788 5315579778 110553 -68 Nov-00 318 345 314 231
Dec-00 049 -25942802121 -17463 193 Dec-00 319 336 308 236
1-Jan 355 -00863561154 -04261 284 Jan-01 331 335 307 243
1-Feb -912 16209515233 74179 -716 Feb-01 300 341 330 225
1-Mar -633 48299554873 94097 -52 Mar-01 281 357 361 213
1-Apr 777 -43323517245 -65179 61 Apr-01 303 342 337 227
1-May 067 24991627761 11086 031 May-01 305 350 341 227
1-Jun -243 -01569851257 00543 -165 Jun-01 298 350 341 223
1-Jul -098 -21829671963 -05079 -093 Jul-01 295 342 340 221
1-Aug -626 -26070979092 17884 -404 Aug-01 276 333 346 212
1-Sep -808 10636654952 60561 -685 Sep-01 254 337 367 198
1-Oct 191 09408124501 22528 233 Oct-01 259 340 375 203
1-Nov 767 -16137664028 -837 519 Nov-01 279 334 344 213
1-Dec 088 07970479005 -2992 094 Dec-01 281 337 333 215
2-Jan -146 01132698972 -26759 -115 Jan-02 277 338 324 213
2-Feb -193 -02410246265 -26221 -106 Feb-02 272 337 316 210
2-Mar 376 -64656658879 -37678 312 Mar-02 282 315 304 217
2-Apr -606 01559405489 -06737 -3 Apr-02 265 315 302 210
2-May -074 19425675286 49554 -043 May-02 263 322 317 209
2-Jun -712 46154392532 59609 -498 Jun-02 244 336 336 199
2-Jul -78 -09755577412 44704 -592 Jul-02 225 333 351 187
2-Aug 066 36669673432 29178 074 Aug-02 227 345 361 189
2-Sep -1087 42995914132 68228 -728 Sep-02 202 360 386 175
2-Oct 88 -18586716944 -39428 521 Oct-02 220 354 370 184
2-Nov 589 -06691963741 -43217 423 Nov-02 233 351 354 192
2-Dec -587 10504712371 65168 -333 Dec-02 219 388 377 185
3-Jan -262 79413180181 78029 -186 Jan-03 213 419 407 182
3-Feb -15 5839796145 24675 -082 Feb-03 210 443 417 180
3-Mar 097 -4822187841 -49263 039 Mar-03 212 422 396 181
3-Apr 824 08044165566 01717 619 Apr-03 230 425 397 192
3-May 527 86017617168 75621 492 May-03 242 462 427 202
3-Jun 128 -16232843116 -23723 11 Jun-03 245 454 417 204
3-Jul 176 -58470688666 -38819 084 Jul-03 249 428 401 206
3-Aug 195 -01285241001 24459 191 Aug-03 254 427 411 210
3-Sep -106 62607424571 26964 031 Sep-03 251 454 422 210
3-Oct 566 09634730462 79884 431 Oct-03 266 458 455 219
3-Nov 088 23264834944 02951 12 Nov-03 268 469 457 222
3-Dec 524 14110879536 8856 41 Dec-03 282 476 497 231
4-Jan 184 19478633231 26613 172 Jan-04 287 485 510 235
4-Feb 139 52879779623 57235 144 Feb-04 291 511 540 239
4-Mar -151 2268957551 -03792 -05 Mar-04 287 522 538 237
4-Apr -157 -56830338449 -105019 -233 Apr-04 282 493 481 232
4-May 137 -16566072328 -32214 087 May-04 286 484 466 234
4-Jun 194 -17215338796 -23435 168 Jun-04 292 476 455 238
4-Jul -331 -06069797015 -19673 -258 Jul-04 282 473 446 232
4-Aug 04 -05707405134 -31134 082 Aug-04 283 470 432 234
4-Sep 108 70162697766 75979 145 Sep-04 286 503 465 237
4-Oct 153 34033420009 3203 17 Oct-04 291 521 480 241
4-Nov 405 45583596598 79681 368 Nov-04 302 544 518 250
4-Dec 34 01240939032 07905 307 Dec-04 313 545 522 257
5-Jan -244 16755564551 -35158 -181 Jan-05 305 554 504 253
5-Feb 21 -20025648058 07235 196 Feb-05 311 543 507 258
5-Mar -177 -10751895082 -32131 -158 Mar-05 306 537 491 254
5-Apr -19 -2390258099 -3307 -143 Apr-05 300 524 475 250
5-May 318 08685813036 14103 272 May-05 310 529 481 257
5-Jun 014 2223478206 2443 083 Jun-05 310 541 493 259
5-Jul 372 -21671781188 16173 293 Jul-05 322 529 501 267
5-Aug -091 49286219575 23044 002 Aug-05 319 555 513 267
5-Sep 081 37034231946 44919 108 Sep-05 321 576 536 270
5-Oct -167 -41709576663 -50465 -191 Oct-05 316 552 509 264
5-Nov 378 22186228209 731 307 Nov-05 328 564 546 272
5-Dec 003 15087373486 26914 097 Dec-05 328 572 561 275
6-Jan 265 05184116785 49735 32 Jan-06 337 575 588 284
6-Feb 027 -12693666599 -08661 013 Feb-06 338 568 583 284
6-Mar 125 20763323239 66529 136 Mar-06 342 580 622 288
6-Apr 134 -11401031738 110633 149 Apr-06 346 573 691 292
6-May -288 -38328436628 -15079 -283 May-06 336 551 681 284
6-Jun 014 -17992981531 -41286 014 Jun-06 337 541 652 285
6-Jul 062 -32543371611 -14002 038 Jul-06 339 524 643 286
6-Aug 238 -01076272465 29098 232 Aug-06 347 523 662 292
6-Sep 258 07974403785 -03827 16 Sep-06 356 527 659 297
6-Oct 326 -29512764216 -00218 309 Oct-06 368 512 659 306
6-Nov 19 03172013357 58364 222 Nov-06 375 513 698 313
6-Dec 14 25165243518 03787 117 Dec-06 380 526 700 317
7-Jan 151 -10891073316 07036 127 Jan-07 386 520 705 321
7-Feb -196 -0242828355 -13437 -066 Feb-07 378 519 696 318
7-Mar 112 -24787732727 -10187 115 Mar-07 382 506 689 322
7-Apr 443 02879881174 68079 345 Apr-07 399 508 736 333
7-May 349 04724656451 33768 267 May-07 413 510 761 342
7-Jun -166 06726351642 29473 -111 Jun-07 406 514 783 338
7-Jul -31 -10308231752 -62002 -209 Jul-07 394 508 734 331
7-Aug 15 -48378452877 -4152 085 Aug-07 400 484 704 334
7-Sep 374 50760632525 70341 364 Sep-07 415 508 753 346
7-Oct 159 36478459472 64209 235 2672 Oct-07 421 527 802 354
7-Nov -418 -09519733939 -29049 -338 Nov-07 404 522 779 342
7-Dec -069 -00407441673 00631 -06 Dec-07 401 522 779 340
8-Jan -6 38885050267 87377 -527 Jan-08 377 542 847 322
8-Feb -325 79938792923 97517 -138 Feb-08 364 585 930 318
8-Mar -043 -01164410281 -17484 -069 Mar-08 363 585 913 316
8-Apr 487 -11768609649 -73215 412 Apr-08 381 578 847 329
8-May 13 26727320318 02045 143 May-08 385 593 848 334
8-Jun -843 38796643349 38908 -664 Jun-08 353 616 881 311
8-Jul -084 -111000927524 -63133 -116 Jul-08 350 548 826 308
8-Aug 145 -81389596386 09693 032 Aug-08 355 503 834 309
8-Sep -891 2350077992 4926 -863 Sep-08 323 515 875 282
8-Oct -1679 231353875038 118043 -1488 Oct-08 269 634 978 240
8-Nov -718 91409930423 52566 -464 Nov-08 250 692 1029 229
8-Dec 106 39012647249 17001 298 Dec-08 252 719 1047 236
9-Jan -843 36085657209 -01782 -629 Jan-09 231 745 1045 221
9-Feb -1065 17480110926 0841 -723 Feb-09 207 758 1054 205
9-Mar 876 -40891209192 -17399 626 Mar-09 225 727 1035 218
9-Apr 957 -52452980511 -24793 785 Apr-09 246 689 1010 235
9-May 559 -175764056892 24393 525 May-09 260 568 1034 247
9-Jun 02 26344903362 -3873 018 Jun-09 260 583 994 248
9-Jul 756 29911557926 15775 638 Jul-09 280 600 1010 264
9-Aug 361 66647387555 02737 292 Aug-09 290 640 1013 271
9-Sep 373 19908108013 31657 353 Sep-09 301 653 1045 281
9-Oct -186 -1135758063 -18836 -156 Oct-09 295 646 1025 276
9-Nov 6 429598654 65618 406 Nov-09 313 673 1092 288
9-Dec 193 -3538041182 -30108 161 Dec-09 319 649 1060 292
10-Jan -36 -22840646395 -587 -256 Jan-10 308 635 997 285
10-Feb 31 13842186803 10589 206 Feb-10 317 643 1008 291
10-Mar 603 38205356429 32922 477 Mar-10 336 668 1041 304
10-Apr 158 14253968325 03791 14 Apr-10 342 678 1045 309
10-May -799 -05569215148 17471 -621 May-10 314 674 1063 290
10-Jun -523 -23229482293 07896 -318 Jun-10 298 658 1072 280
10-Jul 701 -52850060701 -35575 569 Jul-10 319 623 1034 296
10-Aug -451 76993453056 43121 -284 Aug-10 305 671 1078 288
10-Sep 892 05035470246 12552 702 Sep-10 332 675 1092 308
10-Oct 38 35726262618 52271 293 Oct-10 344 699 1149 317
10-Nov 001 -46572458071 -67101 -044 Nov-10 344 666 1072 316
10-Dec 668 71205616987 60114 502 Dec-10 367 714 1136 332
11-Jan 237 14260916813 02413 151 Jan-11 376 724 1139 337
11-Feb 343 -08196213636 14822 271 Feb-11 389 718 1156 346
11-Mar 004 -25144800567 -53504 026 Mar-11 389 700 1094 347
11-Apr 296 51621261523 44419 292 Apr-11 401 736 1142 357
11-May -113 -18535770592 -51957 -088 May-11 396 722 1083 354
11-Jun -167 08676483656 -46402 -14 Jun-11 389 729 1033 349
11-Jul -203 93387304437 48149 -126 Jul-11 382 797 1083 344
11-Aug -543 3189583693 00543 -469 Aug-11 361 822 1083 328
11-Sep -703 -41599527992 34989 -619 Sep-11 335 788 1121 308
11-Oct 1093 -13852548076 -6243 834 Oct-11 372 777 1051 333
11-Nov -022 39284953285 -00578 -096 Nov-11 371 808 1050 330
11-Dec 102 01889893545 02082 061 Dec-11 375 809 1053 332
12-Jan 448 -01521632453 -04526 426 Jan-12 392 808 1048 346
12-Feb 432 -22430032837 14221 342 Feb-12 409 790 1063 358
12-Mar 329 -12258940456 -21399 158 Mar-12 422 780 1040 364
12-Apr -063 13756177692 -18216 -038 Apr-12 420 791 1021 363
12-May -601 43616823461 38067 -528 May-12 394 825 1060 343
12-Jun 412 -61107318666 -83896 324 Jun-12 411 775 971 355
12-Jul 139 -2662867044 20145 115 Jul-12 416 754 991 359
12-Aug 225 -29540623033 -22929 186 Aug-12 426 732 968 365
12-Sep 258 -47724948882 -20234 22 Sep-12 437 697 948 373
12-Oct -185 -18050840884 -36659 -098 Oct-12 429 684 914 370
12-Nov 058 -03984415062 -0944 079 Nov-12 431 682 905 373
12-Dec 091 -17220762656 24366 124 Dec-12 435 670 927 377
13-Jan 518 -04335912154 32593 387 Jan-13 458 667 957 392
13-Feb 136 -29598734504 01523 08 Feb-13 464 647 959 395
13-Mar 375 -04786782014 2166 255 Mar-13 481 644 979 405
13-Apr 193 11854540053 29259 181 Apr-13 490 652 1008 412
13-May 234 -43222576245 -06784 082 May-13 502 624 1001 416
13-Jun -134 06875789801 10553 -177 Jun-13 495 628 1012 408
13-Jul 509 06412005306 -19554 423 Jul-13 520 632 992 426
13-Aug -29 11512128942 -11474 -214 Aug-13 505 639 981 417
13-Sep 314 -19925877399 -05148 361 Sep-13 521 626 976 432
13-Oct 46 -07538953205 -06933 349 Oct-13 545 622 969 447
13-Nov 305 27584740935 46402 189 Nov-13 562 639 1014 455
13-Dec 253 19377872096 15067 18 Dec-13 576 651 1029 463
14-Jan -346 -08961192857 -51141 -251 Jan-14 556 645 976 452
14-Feb 457 -00139276726 -05865 399 Feb-14 581 645 971 470
14-Mar 084 -34260446582 -18865 037 Mar-14 586 623 952 471
14-Apr 074 22210329784 03199 043 Apr-14 591 637 955 473
14-May 235 -07288421342 07134 197 May-14 605 632 962 483
14-Jun 207 05841054246 00135 195 Jun-14 617 636 962 492
14-Jul -138 -00888949644 03097 -153 Jul-14 609 636 965 485
14-Aug 4 18791535569 48657 313 Aug-14 633 648 1012 500
14-Sep -14 69028951277 63915 -221 Sep-14 624 692 1077 489
14-Oct 244 21563513841 15927 194 Oct-14 639 707 1094 498
14-Nov 269 72204527611 104647 19 Nov-14 657 758 1209 508 LTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98)
14-Dec -025 76468641712 47745 -044 Dec-14 655 816 1266 506 Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02)
15-Jan -3 54094515689 113573 -159 Jan-15 635 860 1410 497 Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09)
15-Feb 575 -50846010492 -16603 45 Feb-15 672 817 1387 520
15-Mar -158 65245129876 57568 -083 Mar-15 661 870 1467 516
15-Apr 096 -88441663253 -51219 09 Apr-15 667 793 1392 520
15-May 129 40875447394 08884 073 May-15 676 825 1404 524
15-Jun -194 -66047202646 -62159 -171 Jun-15 663 771 1317 515
15-Jul 21 80060563143 34205 126 Jul-15 677 833 1362 522
15-Aug -603 -10026780942 -24342 -522 Aug-15 636 824 1329 494
15-Sep -247 36089130828 34355 -247 Sep-15 620 854 1374 482
15-Oct 844 -16993598229 -58073 637 Oct-15 673 839 1294 513
15-Nov 03 48441920313 30487 01 Nov-15 675 880 1334 513
15-Dec -158 11998205926 -10345 -173 Dec-15 664 891 1320 504
16-Jan -496 31480723033 48626 -453 Jan-16 631 919 1384 482
16-Feb -013 33572073647 44379 -002 Feb-16 630 950 1446 481
16-Mar 678 -61786855584 -39621 601 Mar-16 673 891 1388 510
16-Apr 039 -31282642584 09914 082 Apr-16 676 863 1402 515
16-May 18 -08911812015 -5253 107 May-16 688 855 1328 520
16-Jun 026 65324823204 94059 03 Jun-16 690 911 1453 522
16-Jul 369 21567955023 02767 348 Jul-16 715 931 1457 540
16-Aug 014 -15149 -44038 024 Aug-16 716 917 1393 541
16-Sep 002 10335 0967 025 Sep-16 716 926 1407 542
-41363
Correllation 100 -022 -015 097
skew -04 02 01 -08
Kurt 198 469 -028 186

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 9

bull Trend horizon or lookback period = the length of time that the signal is ldquolooking backrdquo to see if the total return index is higher (lower) today than 30 days 3 months 1 year ago etc

bull Moving average (MA) crossover is a methodology to identify a trend - if short term MA is above longer term MA = Uptrend (buy market)- if short term MA is below longer term MA = Downtrend (sell market)

bull The trend horizon of a moving average is half of its moving average ndash this makes sense

Trend Following Terminology

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Example The average lookback of an equally weighted moving average is total days in the moving average divided by two

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 10

bull Manage long and short positions according to systematic signals

bull Implemented in futures and forwards (currency) markets (see Appendix)

bull Investable universe includes liquid markets across the globe Equities = typically broad indices such as SampP 500 Nikkei 225 etc Fixed Income = typically sovereign bondsrates such as US 10-year Treasury Currencies = typically major currencies such as JPY GBP EUR AUD CAD CHF Commodities = energy metals and agriculture components

bull Strategy implementation volatility is customizable (range anywhere from roughly 5-30 (capable of offsetting equity asymp 18-20)

bull Systematic = rules-based implementation

bull Related terms = managed futures CTAs (commodity trading advisors)

How do systematic trend following managers invest

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 11

Basic Trend Following Example

bull Single Asset Example 21 day average price gt 252 day average price = long position 21 day average price lt 252 day average price = short position

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 12

bull The RISICrsquos Trend Following allocation and corresponding managers should be compiled based on assessing the following criteria

Trend Horizons Short asymp lt1 month Medium asymp 1-11 months Long asymp12+ months

Systematic implementation = quantitatively-oriented firmso Graduate (PhD Masters) backgrounds in mathematics physics computer scienceo Straight forward strategy design (ie humility)

Focus on global futures markets (ie utilize forwards on limited basis)

Strong focus on risk management and diversification

Target gt15 annual standard deviationo Required in order to meaningfully impact portfolio

RISIC Mandate ndash Trend Following Allocation

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 13

Why medium-term trends

o Trend Horizons Short asymp lt1 month | Medium asymp 1-11 months | Long asymp12+ months

o Medium to long-term trends provide most robust return patterns - whyo Short term trends are too short (risk getting whipsawed in choppy markets)o Long term trends are too long (longer time to turn lower hit ratios)

o The average of all trend horizons traded is the horizon of the strategy

Using a larger number of moving average signals reduces the dependency on individual data points and leads to an increased robustness of the strategy vs more concentrated strategies shorter drawdown periods

What length of trend is best How many

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 14

bull Benchmarking Trend Following strategies is imperfectbull Primarily due to different volatility targets markets traded and trend horizons (lookback)

bull Benchmark characteristicsbull Construction based on consistently applied tradingrisk-management rulesbull Inclusive of markets traded by managers (rates currency commodities equities)bull Broad scalable investible published available at low cost as a simple option bull Comparable to the strategies run by managers that will be sourced

bull Institutional investors track several major benchmarks bull MLM 3X IndexTM (Investable rules-based)bull Credit Suisse Managed Futures Liquid IndexTM 15 Target Volatility (Investable rules-based)bull Societe Generale Trend IndexTM (Uninvestable 10 largest trend managers)

Trend Following Benchmarks

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 15

Investable Trend Following Benchmark Comparisons

Source Mount Lucas Management Credit Suisse

Several distinctions between indices can produce different performance behaviors

Selected Investable STF Benchmark Characteristics

MLM Index 3X trade (with interest on cash)

Credit Suisse Managed Futures Liquid Indextrade

15 Target VolBasic trend signal Time-series momentum Moving Average Crossover

of look-back periods utilized 1 16Range of look-back periods only 12-months 1-month to 9-months

Average look-back period 12-months 5 monthsMarkets traded

Number of markets 22 31

Major market segmentsFixed Income (5)

Currencies (6) Commodities (11)

Fixed Income (4) Currencies (5)

Commodities (17) (in 4 aggregated contracts)

Equities (5)Contracts traded 22 18Trading Frequency Monthly Daily

Volatility Framework

Leveraged to set volatility at 3-times non-levered index volatility Volatility is not

bounded but results from construction

Leveraged to target volatility at an expected forward-looking standard deviation of 15

(within a range of variation)SampP 500

1995-2016 Volatility

Index Volatility 1995-2016 141 147 149Inclusion of return on cash Yes YesYear of Inception Index 1970 1995

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 16

The Credit Suisse MF Liquid Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLMtrade 3x Index

Several years where indices diverge particularly in more recent calendar years but both provided major offset in severe down markets-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Annu

al R

etur

ns -

Calendar Year Returns

MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol 7030 Portfolio

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 17

The Credit Suisse MF Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLM 3x Index

CSMF IndexTM

15 volhas produced a similar but more consistent return pattern versus MLM 3X IndexTM

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

Growth of $1 ndash Index Comparisons

MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol

SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio

Returns to systematic trend following are episodic with long periods of little going on

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 18

The Credit Suisse MF Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLM 3x Index

Comparative Performance Statistics

MLM 3x and Credit Suisse 15 Vol exhibit similar statistical characteristics

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Periods Ending 93020161 Year 85 124 07 24 162 01 125 105 12 154 125 12

3 Years 139 145 10 130 156 08 79 90 09 112 108 105 Years 33 129 03 46 138 03 120 92 13 164 111 15

10 Years 58 163 03 79 144 05 62 124 04 72 153 0420 Years 98 141 05 117 147 06 71 121 04 79 154 04

Statistical MeasuresLargest Drawdown - period

Largest Drawdown - -5095Largest Drawdown - of months 16

Recovery PeriodRecovery Duration 37

Crisis Period ReturnsLTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98) -100

Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02) -206Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09) -388

SampP 500

Nov-07 - Feb-09

Mar-09 - Mar-12

113 127 -145

Jun-09 - Jul-11 Dec-12 - Nov-14 Mar-09 - Apr-1126 24

326 277 -309

121 143 -88

26

-2509 -277 -42163 21 16

MLM 3x Credit Suisse 15 Vol 7030

Mar-09 - May-09 Mar-11 - Nov-12 Nov-07 - Feb-09

Data

Growth of $1 - Selected Indices

SampP 500 Index3466934700347313475934790348203485134881349123494334973350043503435065350963512535156351863521735247352783530935339353703540035431354623549035521355513558235612356433567435704357353576535796358273585535886359163594735977360083603936069361003613036161361923622036251362813631236342363733640436434364653649536526365573658636617366473667836708367393677036800368313686136892369233695136982370123704337073371043713537165371963722637257372883731637347373773740837438374693750037530375613759137622376533768137712377423777337803378343786537895379263795637987380183804738078381083813938169382003823138261382923832238353383843841238443384733850438534385653859638626386573868738718387493877738808388383886938899389303896138991390223905239083391143914239173392033923439264392953932639356393873941739448394793950839539395693960039630396613969239722397533978339814398453987339904399343996539995400264005740087401184014840179402104023840269402994033040360403914042240452404834051340544405754060340634406644069540725407564078740817408484087840909409404096941000410304106141091411224115341183412144124441275413064133441365413954142641456414874151841548415794160941640416714169941730417604179141821418524188341913419444197442005420364206442095421254215642186422174224842278423094233942370424014243042461424914252242552425834261411025910659101109735444795000011129616668719730211748013354685194120205672645138931241965009769575412450699222939992129761187301480581292940470271952513497005569168912137574977766538731422525270106010514357547551179966144953800076712951470846209378406315087940415803691151452745893837461447585345253298514781293960381431561348081035090416044412880716591725737049449876516915674558707691797290421862691918113092871532211736864475451223718405552846356619195264510146997352040123602015828222025174407362882207917646405505612193115334285272921198652821201449221801504468230752256164903450843522812083338791482244568345475183512570902447635128825968685623562435255220242308371642655821841460915226276701299414293224770902915189862391787177920535525862394754854749274296558769989482900960405551408930222205505034578292822949138280023045358671038112431632140516072873308856219998935533259977402088765131582661071435956314279060321859173056678140690402232501658669961042331614423409612513511465129484386633351895799842701327215449692256753592171206721594134840468533992741341262389290458933496915703059332534423638180916072365613461119509613463090703723995334485457227683547317680031981420853192366641381297733056956571503342300421621321822428140493269215101303270095962331173053020056052787829788316686907052949639118337536127649917095296064254158037939961412590124564646146627887871187545059281332844539954552772253850096712227187493507898459282097432637954442650023282200944263041310991265712443127696486875822525637361608997226743065681956152020960944423275221988055075325237232831515192618932191643052508121921342220045324092102208674464422621226000986067275229750234673192224185807204046941244953855362587424926504321696896254125711559699925143197901716707265663029029538712680008636849986528204410894209262872337205466271291226269262225212868287525963656228232554118060267286193401094776962917455530760156628208877526919953283217130370276322862758753782752629065589627156293024274600705612312709993712960313050798698663641131148654713355772305973235249293743001597437795571630970482363174709310138410384831563216755592511472831874831166196183321330172986423731596395909755043279073967514378332800576897046323336697921848180483376070062371705534182709381513519346407576872258013364310386583369433690204211245862338990834773555873470588166411665135601293411050863367618955762511183746037159219988637984816794490683385583875280874937802643132536975382260327356213913991944598580941941312634650714166406268449155123173936741272313143239957923913978401414523502683611964211144263762814340351184335375292400727611634612043766839549365352836444172640109791362874626977573238054662131138102385493727388428953529966061695843935003143467775993551068904805874132346686653876708269156779646908124983132286826009252479534890663612311955100993806420657318827379658224668999566581152461698228251029425993071592102619260450577352868252801406410007451229025371814087202301080181827526562954800904455345831320889587226666319253827562601433077606897703477631730127115322853364345378037681734175020350106773314444362241332432979989220961107431888864653504814304506768576317473316687723333249734427218568199134344306612900559553673062946423169376011453825339853889086466915490138906421015022561400580510770672323960539509989637438943985001728101381534221061930223608169128582674335451483884331213721163310728886371297675144528233750849114310024239188871546311134088183079711177142226843030336747419608139192456253943896900269896410638545256101574163464210351613742571421550845248436697642268570534286187358866019543110472455474422435027777548192424575622164251887746378506256857133481177002414892834904637185615003550194056957583948495214565943523245204209873500485850532877871689719521196102368607855451711230775638156179884233142952576012353042414745560823256271471758149528790830782586379848326737555907190592043554660460095709565786617116196907537966085999933902138963294399312582256240827772220609663931039698627927656507846665210166548665770485471663522057973709076671745763071973566611321800154363466747904894358454676089528674956696629733918186625367689583304685437636079014314129056203678626605700767272691026912224674745090999929526640841185621305963114554628144894630325057071283167306109594071613675686034214884936878483828307528568963678862611273715084386126416237160855042669932271622872136784661MLM Index 3X 34669347003473134759347903482034851348813491234943349733500435034350653509635125351563518635217352473527835309353393537035400354313546235490355213555135582356123564335674357043573535765357963582735855358863591635947359773600836039360693610036130361613619236220362513628136312363423637336404364343646536495365263655736586366173664736678367083673936770368003683136861368923692336951369823701237043370733710437135371653719637226372573728837316373473737737408374383746937500375303756137591376223765337681377123774237773378033783437865378953792637956379873801838047380783810838139381693820038231382613829238322383533838438412384433847338504385343856538596386263865738687387183874938777388083883838869388993893038961389913902239052390833911439142391733920339234392643929539326393563938739417394483947939508395393956939600396303966139692397223975339783398143984539873399043993439965399954002640057400874011840148401794021040238402694029940330403604039140422404524048340513405444057540603406344066440695407254075640787408174084840878409094094040969410004103041061410914112241153411834121441244412754130641334413654139541426414564148741518415484157941609416404167141699417304176041791418214185241883419134194441974420054203642064420954212542156421864221742248422784230942339423704240142430424614249142522425524258342614110148884646900895103340591859474421072408712997243110940677971075865114262418660692781160092612677171142959157168208311013103426890634110783733289700331137038224450235111679226409959909121850894347440231242433353496411812252167585248812126896699822459641328653866929275813351606121318145134081055440927281296797928471894713619392434367088143576578138179231509218792763344715752141625393705159741476392170381624588692915244715961946131990337158166634405606991596268567466747615854045132050956160762782421028591674471548787969116334608788312481167136836594916961724103293485745617540016237536971184317397396999281833207803473638519081906293617161199528158418133362015627484786143521495947913924032218083936204276442354434329164940125568449301383946244569562533616392392098972026799324768457163719559259133315331014382621527584284674826443486642972855246776974677741692522251779160873425363596849993599255718459950524222543332082009850425755097037285197263905469237608912593318215612296269111264944554352772336103456553228413595450075206282512675271448142755300091516830227662953436071924283321999650090952858120804002444629274590427040774314817804441657153177213234675698932724829006272378344643433993104513357024175828066833541251801571748340849392335919133573122662643302134183224213506169350375186287367593498251493609266634218858110597834333267389762584413368122399944071733998101148189912334494512142795573371605936289772133754249508694474336728934548908533149571666931522831544831262756059321576109118041663364182590872654433313630471808207345352304220459553602010422381642353506087423034153511404375039457388026730482139434188411671450271744330063747749886421923848037816734253178733277496646190270333054864454404709212399464278353529314546427285481394055114540367249408701545841124640575002469076108389668847569518484822714849610768837257251060571175497652219113860765338492514839465369294843558030123659847601745376581057473128124445944394704277905596145950343427344960032520567863524614445442972190172910554497265868140495541039832423297543007691886491815371693301544380252432959673518953528883825581519765406434421783125752892673579868639554995535038222757554936841166908551543447906696125637801167088788657228607789353605575252875755654567950807540961575797433537416528573133681365925715511663633801610754124923718312337523635162123404735230715880167218252724277206795183511682380451475985133054437969212552622290028893799520491768101300335192278665029281450635738492353615078156340236386551021488843485043513646773187677665083519832107603248375870074608462508314598385507925268571318619042852184159214284254521628972131248554191254093339198585232375325283725845509247309335557767157307764609593111186249949546161219094094592654773180599687912503152135379287295149766029792115163411843563236063692083157713540857190831538127088974503174200586004758054979499215967270571947536747268892087788668714567833349511720355827928642302366600225106747576396402285420570113652974281025352986455580729791857567329116090210022649469842354643846346355313413052864342027491780147668002375855000886775240605615865267375078330068803658099901409815496233192816727965167131078552540018674691151011573536987953442583287466625072738788234713691521499241957238694169177803971793642853250548699884060217257537360129583255957972237039097739091728638025868266767966835670147050482209445615305849787895714812564137769813515439796780750502764271417809031126182080138078000781649011678968109588554389780000442351743847907302670362232982521940949887469774792464073246567541607708880763873188239184893966696953342110148546843727482284168568164592314229058669907460484101416670028005841815364726036177634292644162067518287266517983125485561662362591028781749627913830961134966319400177769446392149927453023662647807316842243621755084290590616389060372158093465128667668604236454503711708577364536047495606406623250136877504976370927279553024363244932772003528636143498551355266355779990150757647521485590334586922192146698701170714589328632549758205028463395178161839371290312886033501192088568816590408878332148698689561611674479293629886653179825347924837850757708360031927344283254956769909807824201775560706285394650126758993839434877515595628800987149600684889065832057726926918696888484690189495394480839779789087039133391421863001611292771298553107031643975291118372363297819930836093202313829167348572263920392620931197582674Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol3466934700347313475934790348203485134881349123494334973350043503435065350963512535156351863521735247352783530935339353703540035431354623549035521355513558235612356433567435704357353576535796358273585535886359163594735977360083603936069361003613036161361923622036251362813631236342363733640436434364653649536526365573658636617366473667836708367393677036800368313686136892369233695136982370123704337073371043713537165371963722637257372883731637347373773740837438374693750037530375613759137622376533768137712377423777337803378343786537895379263795637987380183804738078381083813938169382003823138261382923832238353383843841238443384733850438534385653859638626386573868738718387493877738808388383886938899389303896138991390223905239083391143914239173392033923439264392953932639356393873941739448394793950839539395693960039630396613969239722397533978339814398453987339904399343996539995400264005740087401184014840179402104023840269402994033040360403914042240452404834051340544405754060340634406644069540725407564078740817408484087840909409404096941000410304106141091411224115341183412144124441275413064133441365413954142641456414874151841548415794160941640416714169941730417604179141821418524188341913419444197442005420364206442095421254215642186422174224842278423094233942370424014243042461424914252242552425834261411018462101362837934799991085448004538323111929118787182351207652511407176612019125390204581117484546864171731138109225682759411830542971141973121282349239248191253561020678453113125047134317747138373303172500361331459748985528213803323105317908144737919185125151412776697511663614531058211188315137577152931888721415729437616425115318985323494783165982278309038621803231471549395617904050860922647176145960706541091733942085083835175478753683071291781330453112814217978309170999982178327747582607391891163979836075817798727619506824189722689263713871946922853862876201326619703110722104247709741140121084225371972662212855164715988862206722706401835322669441690595415238021656835493992409319476336215824715883382021251271921183062991962754716579502454626218979196217438257775040245115282671023723013445526347004714041855255795955077359592495813923487551426251544884444464257360170460037412686083540701638126872519870418432268999567132061262705837055829019925763194593147083265313757663309472813103200541033527419823254249551277010409615451362676529979786414226160056073535038263894797652999412548730262056363225800821930099183269664772640791342707517913393063628270088014648396313954310549318153084717264241954307157328397901933299419518611299136098849970540673374596302831080134120070774442652341385979728731753396520803376895345726418142448733666639557515736237492416134674511343543009042022533332642022114852532434638542450811315841698852292073039414153229354430189376200790483316853805490444573357411439819244935075011608249249360984302969547423856135399925536837040956933772726354401578979658723774972210786050840695295174214756416994515826385033964521149932298139713282327467319427164404503527264170307833354900940084206535718971410646261433761244217189272270611745540752200966779456751429607118284972013362131246351043335537376455539648008468581965376016632204691248114327415071871465643724717227545473136402847931445785433903947054319063502047815646472216278699063479607213661057945178227960527846352191618525558194503566656014366215072099607706301949091279752110903474678311307085914813726995314497449313263458100307501108068680081651265560301474542535683580046564785086503081795148954583264570743744560523185534007515884008061665413858330466678433295622111342960827866909373871666130868051874230552771652422845510701696432876208278608866200600401871004659472507041330465932874203479539697809804734914257004524104654454705380793625480346959025919015347688813432197833827357071618484301576055052128972793782966226803700147344207548094170970392760506973007753442576737939978018203711477063777852829118623665779019542537975168470879331063159292969340707904458913438647549674528465612369693250484829245469892748812978175263532882565884241246206833661953571965958747281414049210197798367540078193102939236528189951046893064884057110450275014424337105381618272956461035480834966252810098081586249346103444040903827289943765319962205110100628217884611012827363731696104489043958535041025208883265320710924810397674245105958862062210699973907685915891710079521394402054104113593977485571045082886122542310633415292259892107173767394075751033610606190315107818092913984761091714256162410911487792520462763107169501545471921136118889613764111388603444944021115574053252049810939037910685213114249390356399391083133347816519510328737942111374108260563452860941083193489388158411210933463883606105110348877333521050495950956824310526830835267162104791863989067431062821090868559510400777823450634102113172546186561060003146855022697107312284647369906353909062158296792111202812716948336196247350049135711396291183690494702807101941926996967356997999572105795140647295866841122666457979433169013834081008090404106009810012515188045546101181772608249919920326422666829806500597293140997560167322182769688378268213806910137938396615464102906867144372699764410705174233597071424363883869524017194325919595544845253305679622646217934274796239452751736962965375063369090821012347317827440610770514966463814109420569583346841208711039285353212664209478560323141025217416688541386837757319192514666752333325439139155359455648431403916156690523913166501323067976136168615008235161328539985817047137418197702979161294379107077740413338408429152194132004225939526151384230634300615614456614056202426138838285506816291402147282693308713284924859334293145344916066784191457470854495409713932867530051409140675983590670087030 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

Performance Stats

Performance stats (2)

Correlations

Annual Returns

Calendar Year Returns

MLM Index 3X1995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420150218999999999999970311015404060000000000000370000000000000007E-202110000000000000240000000000000001E-30151022600000000000001014599999999999999005-008-90000000000000011E-30379-96999999999999989E-299000000000000005E-2013400000000000001-017199999999999999-27999999999999997E-2025390999999999999998E-2Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015031303639999999999999901749999999999999902690000000000000252999999999999999E-297000000000000003E-2008013300000000000001031700573999999999999996E-2025011203439999999999999712E-271999999999999995E-2-72999999999999995E-2-01189999999999999901102310000000000000142000000000000003E-27030 Portfolio1995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420150265000000000000010145999999999999990218999999999999970196999999999999980182-55999999999999994E-2-88000000000000009E-2-0138000000000000010247011469000000000000006E-2015174999999999999997E-2-03070238999999999999990135000000000000012E-301350000000000000102280000000000000190999999999999998E-2-2E-3

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 19

The Credit Suisse MF Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLM 3x Index Correlations

bull Both MLM and Credit Suisse exhibit similar negative correlations with US equities

bull MLM and Credit Suisse indices are highly correlated with one another

Correlations ndash various periods ending 93016

SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM 7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099MLM Index 3X -054 -056 MLM Index 3X -023 -026

Credit Suisse Index -059 -055 080 Credit Suisse Index -021 -020 082

SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM 7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099MLM Index 3X -031 -033 MLM Index 3X -036 -036

Credit Suisse Index -027 -027 076 Credit Suisse Index -021 -021 066

1 Year Correlation 3 Year Correlation

10 Year Correlation5 Year Correlation

SampP 500 7030 MLM 7030 Portfolio 098MLM Index 3X -027 -026

Credit Suisse Index -018 -016 066

20 Year Correlation

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 20

Systematic Trend Following modeled with the MLM 3X IndexTM in the AL study Long history calculated back to pre-1970 PCA used data going back to 1970 Simple captures the beta captures big down markets reasonable for modeling However has only one lookback period (12 months) slow to respond to trends Investible but not inclusive of the full opportunity set (no equities)

Benchmark recommendation Credit Suisse Managed Futures Liquid IndexTM15 vol Diversified across 18 deep and liquid futures contracts in major markets Diversified across 16 lookback horizons from trading 30 days to 12 months Utilizes a moving average crossover method to determine the signal Equally risk weighted over 288 potentially different signals (long or short) Most comparable to the strategies that will be sourced

Recommended RISIC Mandate Benchmark

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 21

Due Diligence Plan Update Relating To STF and Platform Manager

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 22

Due Diligence Process Outline Platform Manager

bull Provide a short list of platform implementation platform managers

Draft DDQ prepared to be issued

bull Send DDQ to short list platform managers

bull Conduct a review of platform managers DDQ responses - rate proposals

PCA and Rhode Island investment staff

bull Conduct onsite due diligence at platform managers offices in NYC

PCA and Rhode Island investment staff

bull Platform manager recommendation

PCA memo to SIC SIC interview recommended platform manager

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 23

Due Diligence Process Outline STF Managers

bull Provide a short list of systematic trend following managers

bull Draft DDQ prepared to be issued

bull Send a DDQ to short list systematic trend following managers

bull Conduct a review of STF managers DDQ responses - rate proposals

bull PCA and Rhode Island investment staff

bull Systematic trend following managers recommendation

bull PCA memo to SIC

bull SIC interview recommended systematic trend following managers

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 24

Other Implementation Crisis Risk OffsetSM Class Managers

Other bull Platform manager to conduct operational due diligence at recommended STF

Managerrsquos office

bull STF Managers hired contracting other administration 1Q 2017

bull Fund long-duration Fixed Income and systematic trend following accounts pari passu

bull Primary source of funds ndash Equity HF portfolio redemptions

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 25

Appendix

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 26

Model Output Focus Portfolio Comparison of Trend IndicesFocus Portfolio

Line Strategic Class Trend

MLM 3x Index

TrendCS MF Index

1 US Equity 200 2002 Non-US Equity 200 2003 Private Growth 150 1504 Income Class 60 605 Crisis Risk Offset 80 806 Inflation Protection 100 1007 IG Fixed Income 115 1158 Absolute Return 65 659 Cash 30 30

10 Total 1000 1000

Asset Only Statistics11 Median Scenario Comp Return (22-year period) 73 7312 Average Scenario Standard Deviation (22-year period) 118 12113 Sharpe Ratio (22-year period) 041 04014 Sortino Ratio (22-year period) 074 074

15 Best Year Worst Year 298 -208

306 -210

16 Average 2-year Loss of Worst 10 -160 -164AssetLiability Statistics

17 Percent of Scenarios lt50 [during first 5-years] 75 7918 Median Funded Ratio [end of 5-years] 600 59919 Average Funded Ratio of Worst 10 [end of 5-years] 477 47620 Median Funded Ratio [end of 22-years] 994 99121 Average Funded Ratio of Worst 10 [end of 22-years] 671 66522 Median Avg Ann Employer Cntrbs Rate [during 22-yrs] 206 20623 Average of Yrs w Employer Cntrbs Rate gt30 [during 22-yrs] 44 47

bull For modeling purposes both indices have same volatility assumptions

bull Modeling the Focus Portfolio with the CS MF Index results in the same long-term return (line 11) and slightly higher risk (line 12)

bull Portfolio results are similar regardless of the trend following index used in modeling the total portfolio

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 27

Comparing Modeling of MLM 3x and CS MF IndexMLM 3x Index Credits Suisse MF Index

1970 1607 9491971 648 -5801972 278 12791973 9190 63231974 1458 51501975 -620 -20551976 851 14651977 374 15591978 -178 4531979 2107 31971980 -568 4861981 2839 18891982 1278 13801983 -1005 -11941984 1281 0881985 239 5561986 456 2281987 643 10851988 188 -10381989 809 0551990 657 3771991 -604 -7281992 -557 -12351993 481 14301994 549 -7851995 384 14781996 409 21071997 077 0061998 992 10741999 -564 -12982000 3782 0122001 043 0492002 -972 11652003 1191 39572004 992 0172005 456 1152006 -1329 24292007 -461 4192008 4324 42422009 -811 -3752010 1370 5092011 1740 -16162012 -1910 -22872013 -127 10762014 2995 28432015 1359 086

-4000

-2000

000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Annual Modeled Returns

$0

$500

$1000

$1500

$2000

$2500

Growth of $100

MLM 3x Credit Suisse Managed Futures

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 28

The Credit Suisse Managed Futures Indextrade is a systematic trend following strategy that trades a total of 18 futures contracts providing liquid and diversified exposure to market trends across asset classes geographies and time horizons The strategy tracks 16 time horizon signals to identify trends across various horizons ranging from shorter-term moving average (60 trading days) to longer-term moving average (360 trading days) The average length of moving average signal utilized is a 210 trading days moving average

bull Shortest signal compares the 60 (trading) day MA (moving average) versus 5 day MA

bull Longest signal compares the 360 (trading) day MA (moving average) versus 5 day MA

bull For each of the 18 different futures contracts (markets) total return index

- If average price in most recent 5 days is gt average price over 60 days =gt Buy the market (go long)

- If average price in most recent 5 days is lt average price over 60 days=gt Sell the market (go short)

bull Signals are equally weighted resulting in a portfolio of long and short exposures When signals align (strong trends) the index is more long or more short

Recommended Benchmark Index

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 29

The Credit Suisse Managed Futures Indextrade Markets Traded

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 30

bull Diversifies and balances risk across the four major futures market typesbull Rebalancing incorporates recent trailing volatility of each instrument traded

The Credit Suisse Managed Futures Indextrade Risk Allocation

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 31

Instruments Forwards

bull Agreement to buysell an asset at a future time for a specified price Long position = agree to buy at the future date Short position = agree to sell at the future date

bull Over-the-counter instrument (ie customized have counterparty risk)

bull Different than an option in that both buyer and seller have obligations

bull Essentially a contract that states Asset type and amount Future date of trade Future price of trade Settlement options (ie cash payment or delivery of asset)

bull Currency forwards can be more liquid than currency futures

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 32

Instruments Futures

bull Futures = analogous to forwards but exchange tradedstandardized Exchanges (eg CME Group) provide numerous services

o Guarantee contracts will be honored backed by exchange with is backed by all of the exchange members (de minimis counterparty risk)

o Facilitate transactionso Set margin requirementso Organize daily settlementmarking to marketo Arrange settlementdelivery procedures

bull Extremely liquid instruments

bull Vast majority of futures contracts do not lead to delivery

bull Regulated by the US Government Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 33

Futures Transaction Example

bull November crude oil contract (one contract = 1000 barrels of oil)

bull ldquoPricerdquo of contract = delivery price (ie futures are free) 1000 barrels $43 = $43000 of exposure (ie notional value)

o Longbuy position = agree to buy 1000 barrels in November $43barrelo Shortsell position = agree to sell 1000 barrels in November $43barrel

Initial margin = $3190 (ie money that must be deposited to trade)o Typically equal to roughly one-day maximum price fluctuationo Margin = embedded leverageo Exchanges require daily settlementmark to market

bull At contract expiration (or anytime while contract is traded) | longbuy ldquoSpotrdquo price = $50

o Gain = ($50-$43) x 1000 = $7000

ldquoSpotrdquo price = $40o Loss = ($40-$43) x 1000 = ($3000)

Gainslosses for shortsell positionare the opposite

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 34

Leverage in Trend Following Strategies

bull Futures contain embedded leverage

bull Trend Following strategies leverage asymp 0x-7x Averagefull-cycle leverage asymp 3x

bull Without leverage (ie 1x) strategy volatility may be asymp 6 (ie bond-like)

bull Leveragerisk oversight is key component of strategy selection

bull Leverage protections Futures have daily price limits and daily settlement

o Price limit = maximum change in contract priceo Exchanges will close out positions if failed settlement

Long and short positions partially offset leverage risks

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 35

CROSM Implementation Considerations (LongShort aspects)bull Long position ndash give up cash to buy a security (traditional)

bull Short position ndash sell an un-owned security receive cash liable for securityrsquos position

bull Because of the liability short positions require collateral as security collateral levels based on potential security movements not total value of positions

bull Minimum collateral requirements allow managers to apply leverage

bull Unlike typical leveraged situations collateral requirements re-set every day

bull Longshort portfolios contain many offsetting long and short positions itrsquos the net position that matters

bull Longshort portfolios utilize ldquoprimary brokersrdquo to effect these types of trades

bull In total across entire CROSM class hundreds of netted ls positions

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 36

DISCLOSURES This document is provided for informational purposes only It does not constitute an offer of securities of any of the issuers that may be described herein Informationcontained herein may have been provided by third parties including investment firms providing information on returns and assets under management and may not have beenindependently verified The past performance information contained in this report is not necessarily indicative of future results and there is no assurance that the investment in question willachieve comparable results or that the Firm will be able to implement its investment strategy or achieve its investment objectives The actual realized value of currently unrealizedinvestments (if any) will depend on a variety of factors including future operating results the value of the assets and market conditions at the time of disposition any related transactioncosts and the timing and manner of sale all of which may differ from the assumptions and circumstances on which any current unrealized valuations are based

Neither PCA nor PCArsquos officers employees or agents make any representation or warranty express or implied in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained inthis document or any oral information provided in connection herewith or any data subsequently generated herefrom and accept no responsibility obligation or liability (whether direct orindirect in contract tort or otherwise) in relation to any of such information PCA and PCArsquos officers employees and agents expressly disclaim any and all liability that may be based on thisdocument and any errors therein or omissions therefrom Neither PCA nor any of PCArsquos officers employees or agents make any representation of warranty express or implied that anytransaction has been or may be effected on the terms or in the manner stated in this document or as to the achievement or reasonableness of future projections management targetsestimates prospects or returns if any Any views or terms contained herein are preliminary only and are based on financial economic market and other conditions prevailing as of thedate of this document and are therefore subject to change

The information contained in this report may include forward-looking statements Forward-looking statements include a number of risks uncertainties and other factors beyond the control ofthe Firm which may result in material differences in actual results performance or other expectations The opinions estimates and analyses reflect PCArsquos current judgment which maychange in the future

Any tables graphs or charts relating to past performance included in this report are intended only to illustrate investment performance for the historical periods shown Such tables graphsand charts are not intended to predict future performance and should not be used as the basis for an investment decision

All trademarks or product names mentioned herein are the property of their respective owners Indices are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index The index dataprovided is on an ldquoas isrdquo basis In no event shall the index providers or its affiliates have any liability of any kind in connection with the index data or the portfolio described herein Copyingor redistributing the index data is strictly prohibited

The Russell indices are either registered trademarks or trade names of Frank Russell Company in the US andor other countries

The MSCI indices are trademarks and service marks of MSCI or its subsidiaries

Standard and Poorrsquos (SampP) is a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc SampP indices including the SampP 500 are a registered trademark of The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc

CBOE not SampP calculates and disseminates the BXM Index The CBOE has a business relationship with Standard amp Poors on the BXM CBOE and Chicago Board Options Exchange areregistered trademarks of the CBOE and SPX and CBOE SampP 500 BuyWrite Index BXM are servicemarks of the CBOE The methodology of the CBOE SampP 500 BuyWrite Index is owned by CBOEand may be covered by one or more patents or pending patent applications

The Barclays Capital indices (formerly known as the Lehman indices) are trademarks of Barclays Capital Inc

The Citigroup indices are trademarks of Citicorp or its affiliates

The Merrill Lynch indices are trademarks of Merrill Lynch amp Co or its affiliates

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MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15x 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol 7030 Portfolio
1995 0219 0228 0265 1995 0219 0313 0265
1996 0311 0264 0146 1996 0311 0364 0146
1997 0154 014 0219 1997 0154 0175 0219
1998 0406 0209 0197 1998 0406 0269 0197
1999 007 0066 0182 1999 007 0053 0182
2000 0211 0087 -0056 2000 0211 0097 -0056
2001 0004 007 -0088 2001 0004 008 -0088
2002 0151 0112 -0138 2002 0151 0133 -0138
2003 0226 0213 0247 2003 0226 0317 0247
2004 0146 0042 0114 2004 0146 005 0114
2005 005 0063 0069 2005 005 0074 0069
2006 -008 0188 0151 2006 -008 025 0151
2007 -0009 0095 0075 2007 -0009 0112 0075
2008 0379 023 -0307 2008 0379 0344 -0307
2009 -0097 0009 0239 2009 -0097 0012 0239
2010 0099 005 0135 2010 0099 0072 0135
2011 0134 -0048 0002 2011 0134 -0073 0002
2012 -0172 -008 0135 2012 -0172 -0119 0135
2013 -0028 0075 0228 2013 -0028 011 0228
2014 0253 0158 0091 2014 0253 0231 0091
2015 0091 0036 -0002 2015 0091 0042 -0002
Return 110 101 80 Return 110 131 80
StDev 153 93 146 StDev 153 134 146
Corr to 7030 -023 005 100 Corr to 7030 -023 004 100
1 Year Correlation 3 Year Correlation
SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM
7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099
MLM Index 3X -054 -056 MLM Index 3X -023 -026
Credit Suisse Index -059 -055 080 Credit Suisse Index -021 -020 082
5 Year Correlation 10 Year Correlation
SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM
7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099
MLM Index 3X -031 -033 MLM Index 3X -036 -036
Credit Suisse Index -027 -027 076 Credit Suisse Index -021 -021 066
20 Year Correlation
SampP 500 7030 MLM
7030 Portfolio 098
MLM Index 3X -027 -026
Credit Suisse Index -018 -016 066
Correlation to date Correlation to date
SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
SampP 500 Index 1 099 -054 -059 SampP 500 Index 1 099 -023 -021
7030 Portfolio 099 1 -056 -055 7030 Portfolio 099 1 -026 -02
MLM Index 3X -054 -056 1 08 MLM Index 3X -023 -026 1 082
Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -059 -055 08 1 Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -021 -02 082 1
Correlation to date Correlation to date
SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
5 5 5 5 10 Years 10 Years 10 Years 10 Years
SampP 500 Index 1 099 -031 -027 SampP 500 Index 1 099 -036 -021
7030 Portfolio 099 1 -033 -027 7030 Portfolio 099 1 -036 -021
MLM Index 3X -031 -033 1 076 MLM Index 3X -036 -036 1 066
Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -027 -027 076 1 Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -021 -021 066 1
Correlation to date
SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
5 5 5 5
SampP 500 Index 1 098 -027 -018
7030 Portfolio 098 1 -026 -016
MLM Index 3X -027 -026 1 066
Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -018 -016 066 1
MLM 3x Credit Suisse 15 Vol 7030 SampP 500
Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio
Periods Ending 9302016
1 Year 85 124 07 24 162 01 125 105 12 154 125 12
3 Years 139 145 10 130 156 08 79 90 09 112 108 10
5 Years 33 129 03 46 138 03 120 92 13 164 111 15 SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
10 Years 58 163 03 79 144 05 62 124 04 72 153 04 Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date
20 Years 98 141 05 117 147 06 71 121 04 79 154 04 Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g) Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g) Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g) Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g)
1 Year 1543 1246 122 1252 1052 116 846 1244 066 24 162 01
Statistical Measures 3 Years 1116 1083 102 792 897 087 1392 1446 095 130 156 08
Largest Drawdown - period Mar-09 - May-09 Mar-11 - Nov-12 Nov-07 - Feb-09 Nov-07 - Feb-09 5 Years 1637 1112 146 12 915 13 329 1288 025 46 138 03
Largest Drawdown - -2509 -277 -4216 -5095 10 Years 724 1525 041 621 1239 043 58 1627 03 79 144 05
Largest Drawdown - of months 3 21 16 16 20 Years 791 1535 036 711 1212 039 977 1408 053 117 147 06
Recovery Period Jun-09 - Jul-11 Dec-12 - Nov-14 Mar-09 - Apr-11 Mar-09 - Mar-12
Recovery Duration 26 24 26 37 00237 01617
01298 0156
Crisis Period Returns 00464 01383
LTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98) 121 143 -88 -100 00787 01439
Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02) 113 127 -145 -206 01172 01466
Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09) 326 277 -309 -388
MLM Credit Suisse 7030
Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio
Periods Ending 9302016
1 Year 85 124 07 14 90 01 125 105 12
3 Years 139 145 10 90 103 09 79 90 09
5 Years 33 129 03 35 92 04 120 92 13
10 Years 58 163 03 58 97 05 62 124 04
20 Years 98 141 05 91 100 07 71 121 04
Statistical Measures
Largest Drawdown - period Mar-09 - May-09 Mar-11 - Nov-12 Nov-07 - Feb-09
Largest Drawdown - -2509 -1486 -4216
Largest Drawdown - of months 3 21 16
Recovery Period Jun-09 - Jul-11 Dec-12 - Nov-14 Mar-09 - Apr-11
Recovery Duration 26 24 26
Full - history semi-deviation 83 54 83
Full - history skewness 03 02 -08
Full- history kurtosis 47 -01 15
Crisis Period Returns
LTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98) 121 104 -88
Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02) 113 157 -145
Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09) 326 183 -309
SampP 500 Index MLM Index 3X woInt Credit Suisse Index 7030 Portfolio
Return Return Return Return
Total Total Total Total
Jan-73 -149 NA NA NA
Feb-73 -352 NA NA NA
Mar-73 009 NA NA NA
Apr-73 -384 NA NA NA
May-73 -164 NA NA NA
Jun-73 -04 NA NA NA
Jul-73 406 NA NA NA
Aug-73 -342 NA NA NA
Sep-73 427 NA NA NA
Oct-73 013 NA NA NA
Nov-73 -1112 NA NA NA
Dec-73 196 NA NA NA
Jan-74 -071 NA NA NA
Feb-74 -005 NA NA NA
Mar-74 -202 NA NA NA
Apr-74 -359 NA NA NA
May-74 -302 NA NA NA
Jun-74 -112 NA NA NA
Jul-74 -742 NA NA NA
Aug-74 -864 NA NA NA
Sep-74 -115 NA NA NA
Oct-74 168 NA NA NA
Nov-74 -49 NA NA NA
Dec-74 -158 NA NA NA
Jan-75 1273 NA NA NA
Feb-75 639 NA NA NA
Mar-75 255 NA NA NA
Apr-75 509 NA NA NA
May-75 476 NA NA NA
Jun-75 477 NA NA NA
Jul-75 -644 NA NA NA
Aug-75 -176 NA NA NA
Sep-75 -311 NA NA NA
Oct-75 654 NA NA NA
Nov-75 281 NA NA NA
Dec-75 -082 NA NA NA
Jan-76 1217 NA NA NA
Feb-76 -084 NA NA NA
Mar-76 338 NA NA NA
Apr-76 -08 NA NA NA
May-76 -112 NA NA NA
Jun-76 441 NA NA NA
Jul-76 -05 NA NA NA
Aug-76 -02 NA NA NA
Sep-76 258 NA NA NA
Oct-76 -191 NA NA NA
Nov-76 -045 NA NA NA
Dec-76 558 NA NA NA
Jan-77 -473 NA NA NA
Feb-77 -182 NA NA NA
Mar-77 -104 NA NA NA
Apr-77 038 NA NA NA
May-77 -198 NA NA NA
Jun-77 493 NA NA NA
Jul-77 -124 NA NA NA
Aug-77 -172 NA NA NA
Sep-77 015 NA NA NA
Oct-77 -394 NA NA NA
Nov-77 312 NA NA NA
Dec-77 071 NA NA NA
Jan-78 -573 NA NA NA
Feb-78 -202 NA NA NA
Mar-78 297 NA NA NA
Apr-78 901 NA NA NA
May-78 086 NA NA NA
Jun-78 -132 NA NA NA
Jul-78 584 NA NA NA
Aug-78 302 NA NA NA
Sep-78 -031 NA NA NA
Oct-78 -874 NA NA NA
Nov-78 213 NA NA NA
Dec-78 194 NA NA NA
Jan-79 443 NA NA NA
Feb-79 -321 NA NA NA
Mar-79 598 NA NA NA
Apr-79 061 NA NA NA
May-79 -218 NA NA NA
Jun-79 434 NA NA NA
Jul-79 133 NA NA NA
Aug-79 576 NA NA NA
Sep-79 044 NA NA NA
Oct-79 -639 NA NA NA
Nov-79 472 NA NA NA
Dec-79 22 NA NA NA
Jan-80 621 NA NA NA
Feb-80 -001 NA NA NA
Mar-80 -975 NA NA NA
Apr-80 462 NA NA NA
May-80 515 NA NA NA
Jun-80 316 NA NA NA
Jul-80 696 NA NA NA
Aug-80 101 NA NA NA
Sep-80 294 NA NA NA
Oct-80 202 NA NA NA
Nov-80 1065 NA NA NA
Dec-80 -301 NA NA NA
Jan-81 -42 NA NA NA
Feb-81 172 NA NA NA
Mar-81 399 NA NA NA
Apr-81 -194 NA NA NA
May-81 025 NA NA NA
Jun-81 -062 NA NA NA
Jul-81 021 NA NA NA
Aug-81 -578 NA NA NA
Sep-81 -492 NA NA NA
Oct-81 54 NA NA NA
Nov-81 412 NA NA NA
Dec-81 -256 NA NA NA
Jan-82 -13 NA NA NA
Feb-82 -559 NA NA NA
Mar-82 -052 NA NA NA
Apr-82 452 NA NA NA
May-82 -341 NA NA NA
Jun-82 -15 NA NA NA
Jul-82 -177 NA NA NA
Aug-82 1214 NA NA NA
Sep-82 124 NA NA NA
Oct-82 1151 NA NA NA
Nov-82 404 NA NA NA
Dec-82 193 NA NA NA
Jan-83 372 NA NA NA
Feb-83 229 NA NA NA
Mar-83 369 NA NA NA
Apr-83 788 NA NA NA
May-83 -087 NA NA NA
Jun-83 389 NA NA NA
Jul-83 -295 NA NA NA
Aug-83 15 NA NA NA
Sep-83 138 NA NA NA
Oct-83 -116 NA NA NA
Nov-83 211 NA NA NA
Dec-83 -052 NA NA NA
Jan-84 -056 NA NA NA
Feb-84 -352 NA NA NA
Mar-84 173 NA NA NA
Apr-84 092 NA NA NA
May-84 -556 NA NA NA
Jun-84 214 NA NA NA
Jul-84 -124 NA NA NA
Aug-84 1104 NA NA NA
Sep-84 002 NA NA NA
Oct-84 038 NA NA NA
Nov-84 -112 NA NA NA
Dec-84 264 NA NA NA
Jan-85 779 NA NA NA
Feb-85 123 NA NA NA
Mar-85 006 NA NA NA
Apr-85 -009 NA NA NA
May-85 578 NA NA NA
Jun-85 157 NA NA NA
Jul-85 -014 NA NA NA
Aug-85 -086 NA NA NA
Sep-85 -313 NA NA NA
Oct-85 462 NA NA NA
Nov-85 686 NA NA NA
Dec-85 484 NA NA NA
Jan-86 056 NA NA NA
Feb-86 747 NA NA NA
Mar-86 558 NA NA NA
Apr-86 -113 NA NA NA
May-86 532 NA NA NA
Jun-86 169 NA NA NA
Jul-86 -559 NA NA NA
Aug-86 741 NA NA NA
Sep-86 -827 NA NA NA
Oct-86 577 NA NA NA
Nov-86 243 NA NA NA
Dec-86 -255 NA NA NA
Jan-87 1347 NA NA NA
Feb-87 395 NA NA NA
Mar-87 289 NA NA NA
Apr-87 -089 NA NA NA
May-87 087 NA NA NA
Jun-87 505 NA NA NA
Jul-87 507 NA NA NA
Aug-87 373 NA NA NA
Sep-87 -219 NA NA NA
Oct-87 -2153 NA NA NA
Nov-87 -824 NA NA NA
Dec-87 761 NA NA NA
Jan-88 421 NA NA 349
Feb-88 466 NA NA 436
Mar-88 -309 NA NA 036
Apr-88 11 NA NA 066
May-88 086 NA NA -09
Jun-88 458 NA NA 252
Jul-88 -038 NA NA 02
Aug-88 -34 NA NA -286
Sep-88 425 NA NA 359
Oct-88 282 NA NA 344
Nov-88 -143 NA NA 034
Dec-88 174 NA NA 116
Jan-89 731 NA NA 398
Feb-89 -248 NA NA -089
Mar-89 232 NA NA 07
Apr-89 52 NA NA 323
May-89 405 NA NA 14
Jun-89 -057 NA NA 004
Jul-89 903 NA NA 742
Aug-89 195 NA NA -04
Sep-89 -041 NA NA 113
Oct-89 -232 NA NA -171
Nov-89 204 NA NA 23
Dec-89 24 NA NA 194
Jan-90 -671 NA NA -478
Feb-90 13 NA NA -08
Mar-90 264 NA NA -117
Apr-90 -249 NA NA -177
May-90 975 NA NA 786
Jun-90 -067 NA NA -001
Jul-90 -032 NA NA 019
Aug-90 -904 NA NA -722
Sep-90 -487 NA NA -53
Oct-90 -043 NA NA 295
Nov-90 646 NA NA 26
Dec-90 279 NA NA 235
Jan-91 435 NA NA 348
Feb-91 715 NA NA 62
Mar-91 242 NA NA 049
Apr-91 024 NA NA 058
May-91 431 NA NA 257
Jun-91 -458 NA NA -379
Jul-91 466 NA NA 377
Aug-91 237 NA NA 166
Sep-91 -167 NA NA 095
Oct-91 134 NA NA 152
Nov-91 -403 NA NA -26
Dec-91 1144 NA NA 76
Jan-92 -186 -50186134107 NA -101
Feb-92 13 -11806985257 NA 03
Mar-92 -194 -34682100213 NA -245
Apr-92 294 04856690806 NA 135
May-92 049 36691977834 NA 196
Jun-92 -149 3995994645 NA -144
Jul-92 409 58382478439 NA 241
Aug-92 -205 21392596519 NA 003
Sep-92 118 -10417441781 NA 069
Oct-92 035 -11426309261 NA -063
Nov-92 34 -24243841368 NA 231
Dec-92 123 03309287484 NA 157
Jan-93 084 12125566229 NA 109
Feb-93 136 59842293696 NA 136
Mar-93 211 -06484088187 NA 282
Apr-93 -242 09183032136 NA 027
May-93 268 -00124707027 NA 196
Jun-93 029 75565231659 NA 064
Jul-93 -04 34694235802 NA 068
Aug-93 379 26998187389 NA 356
Sep-93 -077 -35544940483 NA -032
Oct-93 207 12906000348 NA 154
Nov-93 -095 39231376084 NA -251
Dec-93 121 23140907663 NA 262
Jan-94 34 -16392143954 NA 357
Feb-94 -271 -5375365439 NA -19
Mar-94 -436 -17526970615 NA -389
Apr-94 128 -31042584129 NA 106
May-94 164 21687630069 NA 058
Jun-94 -245 -02802505425 NA -136
Jul-94 328 -09170406074 NA 249
Aug-94 41 03148132864 NA 3
Sep-94 -245 49091708791 NA -203
Oct-94 225 33710507687 NA 14
Nov-94 -364 -02736669026 NA -3 SampP 500 Index MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol 7030 Portfolio
Dec-94 148 11635880505 NA 095 Dec-94 100 100 100 100
Jan-95 259 1488846469 18462 078 Jan-95 103 101 102 101
Feb-95 39 18245801927 -04746 274 Feb-95 107 103 101 104
Mar-95 295 37741988604 70854 257 Mar-95 110 107 109 106
Apr-95 294 20196669281 31179 254 Apr-95 113 109 112 109
May-95 4 4438151788 78944 291 May-95 117 114 121 112
Jun-95 232 15287989065 -04753 152 Jun-95 120 116 120 114
Jul-95 332 -14769041128 -2252 32 Jul-95 124 114 117 117
Aug-95 025 -36439459991 -31269 016 Aug-95 125 110 114 118
Sep-95 422 05926567612 39491 274 Sep-95 130 111 118 121
Oct-95 -036 2635846499 25163 -064 Oct-95 129 114 121 120
Nov-95 439 27162162082 33589 332 Nov-95 135 117 125 124
Dec-95 193 4331305919 47021 198 Dec-95 138 122 131 126
Jan-96 34 19634168588 54269 207 Jan-96 142 124 138 129
Feb-96 093 -13857157749 -37777 042 Feb-96 144 123 133 130
Mar-96 096 3570816298 36706 074 Mar-96 145 127 138 131
Apr-96 147 47035792726 48573 151 Apr-96 147 133 145 133
May-96 258 04897246276 -23907 119 May-96 151 134 141 134
Jun-96 038 04231657395 28546 021 Jun-96 151 134 145 134
Jul-96 -442 -32825387444 -5322 -362 Jul-96 145 130 138 130
Aug-96 211 50232432929 29044 183 Aug-96 148 136 142 132
Sep-96 563 54206924649 82056 405 Sep-96 156 144 153 137
Oct-96 276 51159466491 83507 144 Oct-96 160 151 166 139
Nov-96 756 43728165918 864 527 Nov-96 173 158 180 147
Dec-96 -198 14093703517 -07113 -113 Dec-96 169 160 179 145
Jan-97 625 17011191838 -16167 314 Jan-97 180 162 176 150
Feb-97 078 -17477703643 -15622 041 Feb-97 181 160 173 150
Mar-97 -411 -0910181567 12022 -309 Mar-97 174 158 175 145
Apr-97 597 09232176853 15126 349 Apr-97 184 160 178 151
May-97 609 -06805906276 09263 543 May-97 195 159 180 159
Jun-97 448 14017438969 -08095 375 Jun-97 204 161 178 165
Jul-97 796 41579104051 60499 584 Jul-97 220 167 189 174
Aug-97 -56 -24491709033 -58848 -401 Aug-97 208 163 178 167
Sep-97 548 23206853381 65934 476 Sep-97 219 167 190 175
Oct-97 -334 3155194786 26194 -317 Oct-97 212 172 195 170
Nov-97 463 1734137994 34076 24 Nov-97 222 175 201 174
Dec-97 172 50839377232 45191 168 Dec-97 226 184 210 177
Jan-98 111 -0540706989 01984 101 Jan-98 228 183 211 178
Feb-98 721 40902523842 09547 561 Feb-98 245 191 213 189
Mar-98 512 4564059454 36725 385 Mar-98 257 200 221 196
Apr-98 101 10197007162 2729 086 Apr-98 260 202 227 197
May-98 -172 66464318242 49967 -174 May-98 255 215 238 194
Jun-98 406 14535097859 12227 237 Jun-98 266 218 241 199
Jul-98 -106 79600070571 25845 -106 143 Jul-98 263 235 247 197
Aug-98 -1446 85969949752 100188 -1191 Aug-98 225 256 272 173
Sep-98 641 -43471273323 13057 462 Sep-98 239 245 275 181
Oct-98 813 -21914686666 -48215 62 Oct-98 259 239 262 192
Nov-98 606 35427775078 -16838 49 Nov-98 274 248 258 202
Dec-98 576 46223079694 36184 48 Dec-98 290 259 267 211
Jan-99 418 11652083769 -13599 243 Jan-99 302 262 263 217
Feb-99 -311 08705260303 -29127 -306 Feb-99 293 264 256 210
Mar-99 4 -66775958823 -24295 326 Mar-99 305 247 250 217
Apr-99 387 22077437514 51823 383 Apr-99 316 252 263 225
May-99 -236 05593377297 -19638 -207 May-99 309 254 257 220
Jun-99 555 0821055256 43706 406 Jun-99 326 256 269 229
Jul-99 -312 -05417097185 00435 -19 Jul-99 316 254 269 225
Aug-99 -049 12651757883 01021 -075 Aug-99 314 258 269 223
Sep-99 -274 24672781685 05889 -147 Sep-99 306 264 271 220
Oct-99 633 -17330628613 -47866 486 Oct-99 325 259 258 231
Nov-99 203 37710155755 29817 248 Nov-99 332 269 265 236
Dec-99 589 30182108515 60293 568 Dec-99 351 277 281 250
Jan-00 -502 24897212667 -25282 -359 Jan-00 334 284 274 241
Feb-00 -189 -05713037029 10256 122 Feb-00 327 283 277 244
Mar-00 978 -24716293218 -3378 621 Mar-00 359 276 268 259
Apr-00 -301 03990582414 -22613 -331 1573 Apr-00 348 277 262 250
May-00 -205 24192880579 0877 -232 May-00 341 283 264 245
Jun-00 247 0878887186 -34187 3 Jun-00 350 286 255 252
Jul-00 -156 24260079771 12301 -165 Jul-00 344 293 258 248
Aug-00 621 75396102385 45179 559 Aug-00 366 315 270 262
Sep-00 -528 09222855204 04031 -385 Sep-00 346 318 271 252
Oct-00 -042 299852918 44133 -131 Oct-00 345 327 283 248
Nov-00 -788 5315579778 110553 -68 Nov-00 318 345 314 231
Dec-00 049 -25942802121 -17463 193 Dec-00 319 336 308 236
1-Jan 355 -00863561154 -04261 284 Jan-01 331 335 307 243
1-Feb -912 16209515233 74179 -716 Feb-01 300 341 330 225
1-Mar -633 48299554873 94097 -52 Mar-01 281 357 361 213
1-Apr 777 -43323517245 -65179 61 Apr-01 303 342 337 227
1-May 067 24991627761 11086 031 May-01 305 350 341 227
1-Jun -243 -01569851257 00543 -165 Jun-01 298 350 341 223
1-Jul -098 -21829671963 -05079 -093 Jul-01 295 342 340 221
1-Aug -626 -26070979092 17884 -404 Aug-01 276 333 346 212
1-Sep -808 10636654952 60561 -685 Sep-01 254 337 367 198
1-Oct 191 09408124501 22528 233 Oct-01 259 340 375 203
1-Nov 767 -16137664028 -837 519 Nov-01 279 334 344 213
1-Dec 088 07970479005 -2992 094 Dec-01 281 337 333 215
2-Jan -146 01132698972 -26759 -115 Jan-02 277 338 324 213
2-Feb -193 -02410246265 -26221 -106 Feb-02 272 337 316 210
2-Mar 376 -64656658879 -37678 312 Mar-02 282 315 304 217
2-Apr -606 01559405489 -06737 -3 Apr-02 265 315 302 210
2-May -074 19425675286 49554 -043 May-02 263 322 317 209
2-Jun -712 46154392532 59609 -498 Jun-02 244 336 336 199
2-Jul -78 -09755577412 44704 -592 Jul-02 225 333 351 187
2-Aug 066 36669673432 29178 074 Aug-02 227 345 361 189
2-Sep -1087 42995914132 68228 -728 Sep-02 202 360 386 175
2-Oct 88 -18586716944 -39428 521 Oct-02 220 354 370 184
2-Nov 589 -06691963741 -43217 423 Nov-02 233 351 354 192
2-Dec -587 10504712371 65168 -333 Dec-02 219 388 377 185
3-Jan -262 79413180181 78029 -186 Jan-03 213 419 407 182
3-Feb -15 5839796145 24675 -082 Feb-03 210 443 417 180
3-Mar 097 -4822187841 -49263 039 Mar-03 212 422 396 181
3-Apr 824 08044165566 01717 619 Apr-03 230 425 397 192
3-May 527 86017617168 75621 492 May-03 242 462 427 202
3-Jun 128 -16232843116 -23723 11 Jun-03 245 454 417 204
3-Jul 176 -58470688666 -38819 084 Jul-03 249 428 401 206
3-Aug 195 -01285241001 24459 191 Aug-03 254 427 411 210
3-Sep -106 62607424571 26964 031 Sep-03 251 454 422 210
3-Oct 566 09634730462 79884 431 Oct-03 266 458 455 219
3-Nov 088 23264834944 02951 12 Nov-03 268 469 457 222
3-Dec 524 14110879536 8856 41 Dec-03 282 476 497 231
4-Jan 184 19478633231 26613 172 Jan-04 287 485 510 235
4-Feb 139 52879779623 57235 144 Feb-04 291 511 540 239
4-Mar -151 2268957551 -03792 -05 Mar-04 287 522 538 237
4-Apr -157 -56830338449 -105019 -233 Apr-04 282 493 481 232
4-May 137 -16566072328 -32214 087 May-04 286 484 466 234
4-Jun 194 -17215338796 -23435 168 Jun-04 292 476 455 238
4-Jul -331 -06069797015 -19673 -258 Jul-04 282 473 446 232
4-Aug 04 -05707405134 -31134 082 Aug-04 283 470 432 234
4-Sep 108 70162697766 75979 145 Sep-04 286 503 465 237
4-Oct 153 34033420009 3203 17 Oct-04 291 521 480 241
4-Nov 405 45583596598 79681 368 Nov-04 302 544 518 250
4-Dec 34 01240939032 07905 307 Dec-04 313 545 522 257
5-Jan -244 16755564551 -35158 -181 Jan-05 305 554 504 253
5-Feb 21 -20025648058 07235 196 Feb-05 311 543 507 258
5-Mar -177 -10751895082 -32131 -158 Mar-05 306 537 491 254
5-Apr -19 -2390258099 -3307 -143 Apr-05 300 524 475 250
5-May 318 08685813036 14103 272 May-05 310 529 481 257
5-Jun 014 2223478206 2443 083 Jun-05 310 541 493 259
5-Jul 372 -21671781188 16173 293 Jul-05 322 529 501 267
5-Aug -091 49286219575 23044 002 Aug-05 319 555 513 267
5-Sep 081 37034231946 44919 108 Sep-05 321 576 536 270
5-Oct -167 -41709576663 -50465 -191 Oct-05 316 552 509 264
5-Nov 378 22186228209 731 307 Nov-05 328 564 546 272
5-Dec 003 15087373486 26914 097 Dec-05 328 572 561 275
6-Jan 265 05184116785 49735 32 Jan-06 337 575 588 284
6-Feb 027 -12693666599 -08661 013 Feb-06 338 568 583 284
6-Mar 125 20763323239 66529 136 Mar-06 342 580 622 288
6-Apr 134 -11401031738 110633 149 Apr-06 346 573 691 292
6-May -288 -38328436628 -15079 -283 May-06 336 551 681 284
6-Jun 014 -17992981531 -41286 014 Jun-06 337 541 652 285
6-Jul 062 -32543371611 -14002 038 Jul-06 339 524 643 286
6-Aug 238 -01076272465 29098 232 Aug-06 347 523 662 292
6-Sep 258 07974403785 -03827 16 Sep-06 356 527 659 297
6-Oct 326 -29512764216 -00218 309 Oct-06 368 512 659 306
6-Nov 19 03172013357 58364 222 Nov-06 375 513 698 313
6-Dec 14 25165243518 03787 117 Dec-06 380 526 700 317
7-Jan 151 -10891073316 07036 127 Jan-07 386 520 705 321
7-Feb -196 -0242828355 -13437 -066 Feb-07 378 519 696 318
7-Mar 112 -24787732727 -10187 115 Mar-07 382 506 689 322
7-Apr 443 02879881174 68079 345 Apr-07 399 508 736 333
7-May 349 04724656451 33768 267 May-07 413 510 761 342
7-Jun -166 06726351642 29473 -111 Jun-07 406 514 783 338
7-Jul -31 -10308231752 -62002 -209 Jul-07 394 508 734 331
7-Aug 15 -48378452877 -4152 085 Aug-07 400 484 704 334
7-Sep 374 50760632525 70341 364 Sep-07 415 508 753 346
7-Oct 159 36478459472 64209 235 2672 Oct-07 421 527 802 354
7-Nov -418 -09519733939 -29049 -338 Nov-07 404 522 779 342
7-Dec -069 -00407441673 00631 -06 Dec-07 401 522 779 340
8-Jan -6 38885050267 87377 -527 Jan-08 377 542 847 322
8-Feb -325 79938792923 97517 -138 Feb-08 364 585 930 318
8-Mar -043 -01164410281 -17484 -069 Mar-08 363 585 913 316
8-Apr 487 -11768609649 -73215 412 Apr-08 381 578 847 329
8-May 13 26727320318 02045 143 May-08 385 593 848 334
8-Jun -843 38796643349 38908 -664 Jun-08 353 616 881 311
8-Jul -084 -111000927524 -63133 -116 Jul-08 350 548 826 308
8-Aug 145 -81389596386 09693 032 Aug-08 355 503 834 309
8-Sep -891 2350077992 4926 -863 Sep-08 323 515 875 282
8-Oct -1679 231353875038 118043 -1488 Oct-08 269 634 978 240
8-Nov -718 91409930423 52566 -464 Nov-08 250 692 1029 229
8-Dec 106 39012647249 17001 298 Dec-08 252 719 1047 236
9-Jan -843 36085657209 -01782 -629 Jan-09 231 745 1045 221
9-Feb -1065 17480110926 0841 -723 Feb-09 207 758 1054 205
9-Mar 876 -40891209192 -17399 626 Mar-09 225 727 1035 218
9-Apr 957 -52452980511 -24793 785 Apr-09 246 689 1010 235
9-May 559 -175764056892 24393 525 May-09 260 568 1034 247
9-Jun 02 26344903362 -3873 018 Jun-09 260 583 994 248
9-Jul 756 29911557926 15775 638 Jul-09 280 600 1010 264
9-Aug 361 66647387555 02737 292 Aug-09 290 640 1013 271
9-Sep 373 19908108013 31657 353 Sep-09 301 653 1045 281
9-Oct -186 -1135758063 -18836 -156 Oct-09 295 646 1025 276
9-Nov 6 429598654 65618 406 Nov-09 313 673 1092 288
9-Dec 193 -3538041182 -30108 161 Dec-09 319 649 1060 292
10-Jan -36 -22840646395 -587 -256 Jan-10 308 635 997 285
10-Feb 31 13842186803 10589 206 Feb-10 317 643 1008 291
10-Mar 603 38205356429 32922 477 Mar-10 336 668 1041 304
10-Apr 158 14253968325 03791 14 Apr-10 342 678 1045 309
10-May -799 -05569215148 17471 -621 May-10 314 674 1063 290
10-Jun -523 -23229482293 07896 -318 Jun-10 298 658 1072 280
10-Jul 701 -52850060701 -35575 569 Jul-10 319 623 1034 296
10-Aug -451 76993453056 43121 -284 Aug-10 305 671 1078 288
10-Sep 892 05035470246 12552 702 Sep-10 332 675 1092 308
10-Oct 38 35726262618 52271 293 Oct-10 344 699 1149 317
10-Nov 001 -46572458071 -67101 -044 Nov-10 344 666 1072 316
10-Dec 668 71205616987 60114 502 Dec-10 367 714 1136 332
11-Jan 237 14260916813 02413 151 Jan-11 376 724 1139 337
11-Feb 343 -08196213636 14822 271 Feb-11 389 718 1156 346
11-Mar 004 -25144800567 -53504 026 Mar-11 389 700 1094 347
11-Apr 296 51621261523 44419 292 Apr-11 401 736 1142 357
11-May -113 -18535770592 -51957 -088 May-11 396 722 1083 354
11-Jun -167 08676483656 -46402 -14 Jun-11 389 729 1033 349
11-Jul -203 93387304437 48149 -126 Jul-11 382 797 1083 344
11-Aug -543 3189583693 00543 -469 Aug-11 361 822 1083 328
11-Sep -703 -41599527992 34989 -619 Sep-11 335 788 1121 308
11-Oct 1093 -13852548076 -6243 834 Oct-11 372 777 1051 333
11-Nov -022 39284953285 -00578 -096 Nov-11 371 808 1050 330
11-Dec 102 01889893545 02082 061 Dec-11 375 809 1053 332
12-Jan 448 -01521632453 -04526 426 Jan-12 392 808 1048 346
12-Feb 432 -22430032837 14221 342 Feb-12 409 790 1063 358
12-Mar 329 -12258940456 -21399 158 Mar-12 422 780 1040 364
12-Apr -063 13756177692 -18216 -038 Apr-12 420 791 1021 363
12-May -601 43616823461 38067 -528 May-12 394 825 1060 343
12-Jun 412 -61107318666 -83896 324 Jun-12 411 775 971 355
12-Jul 139 -2662867044 20145 115 Jul-12 416 754 991 359
12-Aug 225 -29540623033 -22929 186 Aug-12 426 732 968 365
12-Sep 258 -47724948882 -20234 22 Sep-12 437 697 948 373
12-Oct -185 -18050840884 -36659 -098 Oct-12 429 684 914 370
12-Nov 058 -03984415062 -0944 079 Nov-12 431 682 905 373
12-Dec 091 -17220762656 24366 124 Dec-12 435 670 927 377
13-Jan 518 -04335912154 32593 387 Jan-13 458 667 957 392
13-Feb 136 -29598734504 01523 08 Feb-13 464 647 959 395
13-Mar 375 -04786782014 2166 255 Mar-13 481 644 979 405
13-Apr 193 11854540053 29259 181 Apr-13 490 652 1008 412
13-May 234 -43222576245 -06784 082 May-13 502 624 1001 416
13-Jun -134 06875789801 10553 -177 Jun-13 495 628 1012 408
13-Jul 509 06412005306 -19554 423 Jul-13 520 632 992 426
13-Aug -29 11512128942 -11474 -214 Aug-13 505 639 981 417
13-Sep 314 -19925877399 -05148 361 Sep-13 521 626 976 432
13-Oct 46 -07538953205 -06933 349 Oct-13 545 622 969 447
13-Nov 305 27584740935 46402 189 Nov-13 562 639 1014 455
13-Dec 253 19377872096 15067 18 Dec-13 576 651 1029 463
14-Jan -346 -08961192857 -51141 -251 Jan-14 556 645 976 452
14-Feb 457 -00139276726 -05865 399 Feb-14 581 645 971 470
14-Mar 084 -34260446582 -18865 037 Mar-14 586 623 952 471
14-Apr 074 22210329784 03199 043 Apr-14 591 637 955 473
14-May 235 -07288421342 07134 197 May-14 605 632 962 483
14-Jun 207 05841054246 00135 195 Jun-14 617 636 962 492
14-Jul -138 -00888949644 03097 -153 Jul-14 609 636 965 485
14-Aug 4 18791535569 48657 313 Aug-14 633 648 1012 500
14-Sep -14 69028951277 63915 -221 Sep-14 624 692 1077 489
14-Oct 244 21563513841 15927 194 Oct-14 639 707 1094 498
14-Nov 269 72204527611 104647 19 Nov-14 657 758 1209 508 LTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98)
14-Dec -025 76468641712 47745 -044 Dec-14 655 816 1266 506 Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02)
15-Jan -3 54094515689 113573 -159 Jan-15 635 860 1410 497 Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09)
15-Feb 575 -50846010492 -16603 45 Feb-15 672 817 1387 520
15-Mar -158 65245129876 57568 -083 Mar-15 661 870 1467 516
15-Apr 096 -88441663253 -51219 09 Apr-15 667 793 1392 520
15-May 129 40875447394 08884 073 May-15 676 825 1404 524
15-Jun -194 -66047202646 -62159 -171 Jun-15 663 771 1317 515
15-Jul 21 80060563143 34205 126 Jul-15 677 833 1362 522
15-Aug -603 -10026780942 -24342 -522 Aug-15 636 824 1329 494
15-Sep -247 36089130828 34355 -247 Sep-15 620 854 1374 482
15-Oct 844 -16993598229 -58073 637 Oct-15 673 839 1294 513
15-Nov 03 48441920313 30487 01 Nov-15 675 880 1334 513
15-Dec -158 11998205926 -10345 -173 Dec-15 664 891 1320 504
16-Jan -496 31480723033 48626 -453 Jan-16 631 919 1384 482
16-Feb -013 33572073647 44379 -002 Feb-16 630 950 1446 481
16-Mar 678 -61786855584 -39621 601 Mar-16 673 891 1388 510
16-Apr 039 -31282642584 09914 082 Apr-16 676 863 1402 515
16-May 18 -08911812015 -5253 107 May-16 688 855 1328 520
16-Jun 026 65324823204 94059 03 Jun-16 690 911 1453 522
16-Jul 369 21567955023 02767 348 Jul-16 715 931 1457 540
16-Aug 014 -15149 -44038 024 Aug-16 716 917 1393 541
16-Sep 002 10335 0967 025 Sep-16 716 926 1407 542
-41363
Correllation 100 -022 -015 097
skew -04 02 01 -08
Kurt 198 469 -028 186

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 10

bull Manage long and short positions according to systematic signals

bull Implemented in futures and forwards (currency) markets (see Appendix)

bull Investable universe includes liquid markets across the globe Equities = typically broad indices such as SampP 500 Nikkei 225 etc Fixed Income = typically sovereign bondsrates such as US 10-year Treasury Currencies = typically major currencies such as JPY GBP EUR AUD CAD CHF Commodities = energy metals and agriculture components

bull Strategy implementation volatility is customizable (range anywhere from roughly 5-30 (capable of offsetting equity asymp 18-20)

bull Systematic = rules-based implementation

bull Related terms = managed futures CTAs (commodity trading advisors)

How do systematic trend following managers invest

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 11

Basic Trend Following Example

bull Single Asset Example 21 day average price gt 252 day average price = long position 21 day average price lt 252 day average price = short position

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 12

bull The RISICrsquos Trend Following allocation and corresponding managers should be compiled based on assessing the following criteria

Trend Horizons Short asymp lt1 month Medium asymp 1-11 months Long asymp12+ months

Systematic implementation = quantitatively-oriented firmso Graduate (PhD Masters) backgrounds in mathematics physics computer scienceo Straight forward strategy design (ie humility)

Focus on global futures markets (ie utilize forwards on limited basis)

Strong focus on risk management and diversification

Target gt15 annual standard deviationo Required in order to meaningfully impact portfolio

RISIC Mandate ndash Trend Following Allocation

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 13

Why medium-term trends

o Trend Horizons Short asymp lt1 month | Medium asymp 1-11 months | Long asymp12+ months

o Medium to long-term trends provide most robust return patterns - whyo Short term trends are too short (risk getting whipsawed in choppy markets)o Long term trends are too long (longer time to turn lower hit ratios)

o The average of all trend horizons traded is the horizon of the strategy

Using a larger number of moving average signals reduces the dependency on individual data points and leads to an increased robustness of the strategy vs more concentrated strategies shorter drawdown periods

What length of trend is best How many

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 14

bull Benchmarking Trend Following strategies is imperfectbull Primarily due to different volatility targets markets traded and trend horizons (lookback)

bull Benchmark characteristicsbull Construction based on consistently applied tradingrisk-management rulesbull Inclusive of markets traded by managers (rates currency commodities equities)bull Broad scalable investible published available at low cost as a simple option bull Comparable to the strategies run by managers that will be sourced

bull Institutional investors track several major benchmarks bull MLM 3X IndexTM (Investable rules-based)bull Credit Suisse Managed Futures Liquid IndexTM 15 Target Volatility (Investable rules-based)bull Societe Generale Trend IndexTM (Uninvestable 10 largest trend managers)

Trend Following Benchmarks

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 15

Investable Trend Following Benchmark Comparisons

Source Mount Lucas Management Credit Suisse

Several distinctions between indices can produce different performance behaviors

Selected Investable STF Benchmark Characteristics

MLM Index 3X trade (with interest on cash)

Credit Suisse Managed Futures Liquid Indextrade

15 Target VolBasic trend signal Time-series momentum Moving Average Crossover

of look-back periods utilized 1 16Range of look-back periods only 12-months 1-month to 9-months

Average look-back period 12-months 5 monthsMarkets traded

Number of markets 22 31

Major market segmentsFixed Income (5)

Currencies (6) Commodities (11)

Fixed Income (4) Currencies (5)

Commodities (17) (in 4 aggregated contracts)

Equities (5)Contracts traded 22 18Trading Frequency Monthly Daily

Volatility Framework

Leveraged to set volatility at 3-times non-levered index volatility Volatility is not

bounded but results from construction

Leveraged to target volatility at an expected forward-looking standard deviation of 15

(within a range of variation)SampP 500

1995-2016 Volatility

Index Volatility 1995-2016 141 147 149Inclusion of return on cash Yes YesYear of Inception Index 1970 1995

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 16

The Credit Suisse MF Liquid Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLMtrade 3x Index

Several years where indices diverge particularly in more recent calendar years but both provided major offset in severe down markets-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Annu

al R

etur

ns -

Calendar Year Returns

MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol 7030 Portfolio

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 17

The Credit Suisse MF Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLM 3x Index

CSMF IndexTM

15 volhas produced a similar but more consistent return pattern versus MLM 3X IndexTM

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

Growth of $1 ndash Index Comparisons

MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol

SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio

Returns to systematic trend following are episodic with long periods of little going on

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 18

The Credit Suisse MF Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLM 3x Index

Comparative Performance Statistics

MLM 3x and Credit Suisse 15 Vol exhibit similar statistical characteristics

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Annlzd Ret

Annlzd Risk

Sharpe Ratio

Periods Ending 93020161 Year 85 124 07 24 162 01 125 105 12 154 125 12

3 Years 139 145 10 130 156 08 79 90 09 112 108 105 Years 33 129 03 46 138 03 120 92 13 164 111 15

10 Years 58 163 03 79 144 05 62 124 04 72 153 0420 Years 98 141 05 117 147 06 71 121 04 79 154 04

Statistical MeasuresLargest Drawdown - period

Largest Drawdown - -5095Largest Drawdown - of months 16

Recovery PeriodRecovery Duration 37

Crisis Period ReturnsLTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98) -100

Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02) -206Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09) -388

SampP 500

Nov-07 - Feb-09

Mar-09 - Mar-12

113 127 -145

Jun-09 - Jul-11 Dec-12 - Nov-14 Mar-09 - Apr-1126 24

326 277 -309

121 143 -88

26

-2509 -277 -42163 21 16

MLM 3x Credit Suisse 15 Vol 7030

Mar-09 - May-09 Mar-11 - Nov-12 Nov-07 - Feb-09

Data

Growth of $1 - Selected Indices

SampP 500 Index3466934700347313475934790348203485134881349123494334973350043503435065350963512535156351863521735247352783530935339353703540035431354623549035521355513558235612356433567435704357353576535796358273585535886359163594735977360083603936069361003613036161361923622036251362813631236342363733640436434364653649536526365573658636617366473667836708367393677036800368313686136892369233695136982370123704337073371043713537165371963722637257372883731637347373773740837438374693750037530375613759137622376533768137712377423777337803378343786537895379263795637987380183804738078381083813938169382003823138261382923832238353383843841238443384733850438534385653859638626386573868738718387493877738808388383886938899389303896138991390223905239083391143914239173392033923439264392953932639356393873941739448394793950839539395693960039630396613969239722397533978339814398453987339904399343996539995400264005740087401184014840179402104023840269402994033040360403914042240452404834051340544405754060340634406644069540725407564078740817408484087840909409404096941000410304106141091411224115341183412144124441275413064133441365413954142641456414874151841548415794160941640416714169941730417604179141821418524188341913419444197442005420364206442095421254215642186422174224842278423094233942370424014243042461424914252242552425834261411025910659101109735444795000011129616668719730211748013354685194120205672645138931241965009769575412450699222939992129761187301480581292940470271952513497005569168912137574977766538731422525270106010514357547551179966144953800076712951470846209378406315087940415803691151452745893837461447585345253298514781293960381431561348081035090416044412880716591725737049449876516915674558707691797290421862691918113092871532211736864475451223718405552846356619195264510146997352040123602015828222025174407362882207917646405505612193115334285272921198652821201449221801504468230752256164903450843522812083338791482244568345475183512570902447635128825968685623562435255220242308371642655821841460915226276701299414293224770902915189862391787177920535525862394754854749274296558769989482900960405551408930222205505034578292822949138280023045358671038112431632140516072873308856219998935533259977402088765131582661071435956314279060321859173056678140690402232501658669961042331614423409612513511465129484386633351895799842701327215449692256753592171206721594134840468533992741341262389290458933496915703059332534423638180916072365613461119509613463090703723995334485457227683547317680031981420853192366641381297733056956571503342300421621321822428140493269215101303270095962331173053020056052787829788316686907052949639118337536127649917095296064254158037939961412590124564646146627887871187545059281332844539954552772253850096712227187493507898459282097432637954442650023282200944263041310991265712443127696486875822525637361608997226743065681956152020960944423275221988055075325237232831515192618932191643052508121921342220045324092102208674464422621226000986067275229750234673192224185807204046941244953855362587424926504321696896254125711559699925143197901716707265663029029538712680008636849986528204410894209262872337205466271291226269262225212868287525963656228232554118060267286193401094776962917455530760156628208877526919953283217130370276322862758753782752629065589627156293024274600705612312709993712960313050798698663641131148654713355772305973235249293743001597437795571630970482363174709310138410384831563216755592511472831874831166196183321330172986423731596395909755043279073967514378332800576897046323336697921848180483376070062371705534182709381513519346407576872258013364310386583369433690204211245862338990834773555873470588166411665135601293411050863367618955762511183746037159219988637984816794490683385583875280874937802643132536975382260327356213913991944598580941941312634650714166406268449155123173936741272313143239957923913978401414523502683611964211144263762814340351184335375292400727611634612043766839549365352836444172640109791362874626977573238054662131138102385493727388428953529966061695843935003143467775993551068904805874132346686653876708269156779646908124983132286826009252479534890663612311955100993806420657318827379658224668999566581152461698228251029425993071592102619260450577352868252801406410007451229025371814087202301080181827526562954800904455345831320889587226666319253827562601433077606897703477631730127115322853364345378037681734175020350106773314444362241332432979989220961107431888864653504814304506768576317473316687723333249734427218568199134344306612900559553673062946423169376011453825339853889086466915490138906421015022561400580510770672323960539509989637438943985001728101381534221061930223608169128582674335451483884331213721163310728886371297675144528233750849114310024239188871546311134088183079711177142226843030336747419608139192456253943896900269896410638545256101574163464210351613742571421550845248436697642268570534286187358866019543110472455474422435027777548192424575622164251887746378506256857133481177002414892834904637185615003550194056957583948495214565943523245204209873500485850532877871689719521196102368607855451711230775638156179884233142952576012353042414745560823256271471758149528790830782586379848326737555907190592043554660460095709565786617116196907537966085999933902138963294399312582256240827772220609663931039698627927656507846665210166548665770485471663522057973709076671745763071973566611321800154363466747904894358454676089528674956696629733918186625367689583304685437636079014314129056203678626605700767272691026912224674745090999929526640841185621305963114554628144894630325057071283167306109594071613675686034214884936878483828307528568963678862611273715084386126416237160855042669932271622872136784661MLM Index 3X 34669347003473134759347903482034851348813491234943349733500435034350653509635125351563518635217352473527835309353393537035400354313546235490355213555135582356123564335674357043573535765357963582735855358863591635947359773600836039360693610036130361613619236220362513628136312363423637336404364343646536495365263655736586366173664736678367083673936770368003683136861368923692336951369823701237043370733710437135371653719637226372573728837316373473737737408374383746937500375303756137591376223765337681377123774237773378033783437865378953792637956379873801838047380783810838139381693820038231382613829238322383533838438412384433847338504385343856538596386263865738687387183874938777388083883838869388993893038961389913902239052390833911439142391733920339234392643929539326393563938739417394483947939508395393956939600396303966139692397223975339783398143984539873399043993439965399954002640057400874011840148401794021040238402694029940330403604039140422404524048340513405444057540603406344066440695407254075640787408174084840878409094094040969410004103041061410914112241153411834121441244412754130641334413654139541426414564148741518415484157941609416404167141699417304176041791418214185241883419134194441974420054203642064420954212542156421864221742248422784230942339423704240142430424614249142522425524258342614110148884646900895103340591859474421072408712997243110940677971075865114262418660692781160092612677171142959157168208311013103426890634110783733289700331137038224450235111679226409959909121850894347440231242433353496411812252167585248812126896699822459641328653866929275813351606121318145134081055440927281296797928471894713619392434367088143576578138179231509218792763344715752141625393705159741476392170381624588692915244715961946131990337158166634405606991596268567466747615854045132050956160762782421028591674471548787969116334608788312481167136836594916961724103293485745617540016237536971184317397396999281833207803473638519081906293617161199528158418133362015627484786143521495947913924032218083936204276442354434329164940125568449301383946244569562533616392392098972026799324768457163719559259133315331014382621527584284674826443486642972855246776974677741692522251779160873425363596849993599255718459950524222543332082009850425755097037285197263905469237608912593318215612296269111264944554352772336103456553228413595450075206282512675271448142755300091516830227662953436071924283321999650090952858120804002444629274590427040774314817804441657153177213234675698932724829006272378344643433993104513357024175828066833541251801571748340849392335919133573122662643302134183224213506169350375186287367593498251493609266634218858110597834333267389762584413368122399944071733998101148189912334494512142795573371605936289772133754249508694474336728934548908533149571666931522831544831262756059321576109118041663364182590872654433313630471808207345352304220459553602010422381642353506087423034153511404375039457388026730482139434188411671450271744330063747749886421923848037816734253178733277496646190270333054864454404709212399464278353529314546427285481394055114540367249408701545841124640575002469076108389668847569518484822714849610768837257251060571175497652219113860765338492514839465369294843558030123659847601745376581057473128124445944394704277905596145950343427344960032520567863524614445442972190172910554497265868140495541039832423297543007691886491815371693301544380252432959673518953528883825581519765406434421783125752892673579868639554995535038222757554936841166908551543447906696125637801167088788657228607789353605575252875755654567950807540961575797433537416528573133681365925715511663633801610754124923718312337523635162123404735230715880167218252724277206795183511682380451475985133054437969212552622290028893799520491768101300335192278665029281450635738492353615078156340236386551021488843485043513646773187677665083519832107603248375870074608462508314598385507925268571318619042852184159214284254521628972131248554191254093339198585232375325283725845509247309335557767157307764609593111186249949546161219094094592654773180599687912503152135379287295149766029792115163411843563236063692083157713540857190831538127088974503174200586004758054979499215967270571947536747268892087788668714567833349511720355827928642302366600225106747576396402285420570113652974281025352986455580729791857567329116090210022649469842354643846346355313413052864342027491780147668002375855000886775240605615865267375078330068803658099901409815496233192816727965167131078552540018674691151011573536987953442583287466625072738788234713691521499241957238694169177803971793642853250548699884060217257537360129583255957972237039097739091728638025868266767966835670147050482209445615305849787895714812564137769813515439796780750502764271417809031126182080138078000781649011678968109588554389780000442351743847907302670362232982521940949887469774792464073246567541607708880763873188239184893966696953342110148546843727482284168568164592314229058669907460484101416670028005841815364726036177634292644162067518287266517983125485561662362591028781749627913830961134966319400177769446392149927453023662647807316842243621755084290590616389060372158093465128667668604236454503711708577364536047495606406623250136877504976370927279553024363244932772003528636143498551355266355779990150757647521485590334586922192146698701170714589328632549758205028463395178161839371290312886033501192088568816590408878332148698689561611674479293629886653179825347924837850757708360031927344283254956769909807824201775560706285394650126758993839434877515595628800987149600684889065832057726926918696888484690189495394480839779789087039133391421863001611292771298553107031643975291118372363297819930836093202313829167348572263920392620931197582674Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol3466934700347313475934790348203485134881349123494334973350043503435065350963512535156351863521735247352783530935339353703540035431354623549035521355513558235612356433567435704357353576535796358273585535886359163594735977360083603936069361003613036161361923622036251362813631236342363733640436434364653649536526365573658636617366473667836708367393677036800368313686136892369233695136982370123704337073371043713537165371963722637257372883731637347373773740837438374693750037530375613759137622376533768137712377423777337803378343786537895379263795637987380183804738078381083813938169382003823138261382923832238353383843841238443384733850438534385653859638626386573868738718387493877738808388383886938899389303896138991390223905239083391143914239173392033923439264392953932639356393873941739448394793950839539395693960039630396613969239722397533978339814398453987339904399343996539995400264005740087401184014840179402104023840269402994033040360403914042240452404834051340544405754060340634406644069540725407564078740817408484087840909409404096941000410304106141091411224115341183412144124441275413064133441365413954142641456414874151841548415794160941640416714169941730417604179141821418524188341913419444197442005420364206442095421254215642186422174224842278423094233942370424014243042461424914252242552425834261411018462101362837934799991085448004538323111929118787182351207652511407176612019125390204581117484546864171731138109225682759411830542971141973121282349239248191253561020678453113125047134317747138373303172500361331459748985528213803323105317908144737919185125151412776697511663614531058211188315137577152931888721415729437616425115318985323494783165982278309038621803231471549395617904050860922647176145960706541091733942085083835175478753683071291781330453112814217978309170999982178327747582607391891163979836075817798727619506824189722689263713871946922853862876201326619703110722104247709741140121084225371972662212855164715988862206722706401835322669441690595415238021656835493992409319476336215824715883382021251271921183062991962754716579502454626218979196217438257775040245115282671023723013445526347004714041855255795955077359592495813923487551426251544884444464257360170460037412686083540701638126872519870418432268999567132061262705837055829019925763194593147083265313757663309472813103200541033527419823254249551277010409615451362676529979786414226160056073535038263894797652999412548730262056363225800821930099183269664772640791342707517913393063628270088014648396313954310549318153084717264241954307157328397901933299419518611299136098849970540673374596302831080134120070774442652341385979728731753396520803376895345726418142448733666639557515736237492416134674511343543009042022533332642022114852532434638542450811315841698852292073039414153229354430189376200790483316853805490444573357411439819244935075011608249249360984302969547423856135399925536837040956933772726354401578979658723774972210786050840695295174214756416994515826385033964521149932298139713282327467319427164404503527264170307833354900940084206535718971410646261433761244217189272270611745540752200966779456751429607118284972013362131246351043335537376455539648008468581965376016632204691248114327415071871465643724717227545473136402847931445785433903947054319063502047815646472216278699063479607213661057945178227960527846352191618525558194503566656014366215072099607706301949091279752110903474678311307085914813726995314497449313263458100307501108068680081651265560301474542535683580046564785086503081795148954583264570743744560523185534007515884008061665413858330466678433295622111342960827866909373871666130868051874230552771652422845510701696432876208278608866200600401871004659472507041330465932874203479539697809804734914257004524104654454705380793625480346959025919015347688813432197833827357071618484301576055052128972793782966226803700147344207548094170970392760506973007753442576737939978018203711477063777852829118623665779019542537975168470879331063159292969340707904458913438647549674528465612369693250484829245469892748812978175263532882565884241246206833661953571965958747281414049210197798367540078193102939236528189951046893064884057110450275014424337105381618272956461035480834966252810098081586249346103444040903827289943765319962205110100628217884611012827363731696104489043958535041025208883265320710924810397674245105958862062210699973907685915891710079521394402054104113593977485571045082886122542310633415292259892107173767394075751033610606190315107818092913984761091714256162410911487792520462763107169501545471921136118889613764111388603444944021115574053252049810939037910685213114249390356399391083133347816519510328737942111374108260563452860941083193489388158411210933463883606105110348877333521050495950956824310526830835267162104791863989067431062821090868559510400777823450634102113172546186561060003146855022697107312284647369906353909062158296792111202812716948336196247350049135711396291183690494702807101941926996967356997999572105795140647295866841122666457979433169013834081008090404106009810012515188045546101181772608249919920326422666829806500597293140997560167322182769688378268213806910137938396615464102906867144372699764410705174233597071424363883869524017194325919595544845253305679622646217934274796239452751736962965375063369090821012347317827440610770514966463814109420569583346841208711039285353212664209478560323141025217416688541386837757319192514666752333325439139155359455648431403916156690523913166501323067976136168615008235161328539985817047137418197702979161294379107077740413338408429152194132004225939526151384230634300615614456614056202426138838285506816291402147282693308713284924859334293145344916066784191457470854495409713932867530051409140675983590670087030 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

Performance Stats

Performance stats (2)

Correlations

Annual Returns

Calendar Year Returns

MLM Index 3X1995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420150218999999999999970311015404060000000000000370000000000000007E-202110000000000000240000000000000001E-30151022600000000000001014599999999999999005-008-90000000000000011E-30379-96999999999999989E-299000000000000005E-2013400000000000001-017199999999999999-27999999999999997E-2025390999999999999998E-2Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015031303639999999999999901749999999999999902690000000000000252999999999999999E-297000000000000003E-2008013300000000000001031700573999999999999996E-2025011203439999999999999712E-271999999999999995E-2-72999999999999995E-2-01189999999999999901102310000000000000142000000000000003E-27030 Portfolio1995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420150265000000000000010145999999999999990218999999999999970196999999999999980182-55999999999999994E-2-88000000000000009E-2-0138000000000000010247011469000000000000006E-2015174999999999999997E-2-03070238999999999999990135000000000000012E-301350000000000000102280000000000000190999999999999998E-2-2E-3

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 19

The Credit Suisse MF Indextrade 15 Vol vs MLM 3x Index Correlations

bull Both MLM and Credit Suisse exhibit similar negative correlations with US equities

bull MLM and Credit Suisse indices are highly correlated with one another

Correlations ndash various periods ending 93016

SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM 7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099MLM Index 3X -054 -056 MLM Index 3X -023 -026

Credit Suisse Index -059 -055 080 Credit Suisse Index -021 -020 082

SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM 7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099MLM Index 3X -031 -033 MLM Index 3X -036 -036

Credit Suisse Index -027 -027 076 Credit Suisse Index -021 -021 066

1 Year Correlation 3 Year Correlation

10 Year Correlation5 Year Correlation

SampP 500 7030 MLM 7030 Portfolio 098MLM Index 3X -027 -026

Credit Suisse Index -018 -016 066

20 Year Correlation

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 20

Systematic Trend Following modeled with the MLM 3X IndexTM in the AL study Long history calculated back to pre-1970 PCA used data going back to 1970 Simple captures the beta captures big down markets reasonable for modeling However has only one lookback period (12 months) slow to respond to trends Investible but not inclusive of the full opportunity set (no equities)

Benchmark recommendation Credit Suisse Managed Futures Liquid IndexTM15 vol Diversified across 18 deep and liquid futures contracts in major markets Diversified across 16 lookback horizons from trading 30 days to 12 months Utilizes a moving average crossover method to determine the signal Equally risk weighted over 288 potentially different signals (long or short) Most comparable to the strategies that will be sourced

Recommended RISIC Mandate Benchmark

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 21

Due Diligence Plan Update Relating To STF and Platform Manager

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 22

Due Diligence Process Outline Platform Manager

bull Provide a short list of platform implementation platform managers

Draft DDQ prepared to be issued

bull Send DDQ to short list platform managers

bull Conduct a review of platform managers DDQ responses - rate proposals

PCA and Rhode Island investment staff

bull Conduct onsite due diligence at platform managers offices in NYC

PCA and Rhode Island investment staff

bull Platform manager recommendation

PCA memo to SIC SIC interview recommended platform manager

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 23

Due Diligence Process Outline STF Managers

bull Provide a short list of systematic trend following managers

bull Draft DDQ prepared to be issued

bull Send a DDQ to short list systematic trend following managers

bull Conduct a review of STF managers DDQ responses - rate proposals

bull PCA and Rhode Island investment staff

bull Systematic trend following managers recommendation

bull PCA memo to SIC

bull SIC interview recommended systematic trend following managers

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 24

Other Implementation Crisis Risk OffsetSM Class Managers

Other bull Platform manager to conduct operational due diligence at recommended STF

Managerrsquos office

bull STF Managers hired contracting other administration 1Q 2017

bull Fund long-duration Fixed Income and systematic trend following accounts pari passu

bull Primary source of funds ndash Equity HF portfolio redemptions

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 25

Appendix

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 26

Model Output Focus Portfolio Comparison of Trend IndicesFocus Portfolio

Line Strategic Class Trend

MLM 3x Index

TrendCS MF Index

1 US Equity 200 2002 Non-US Equity 200 2003 Private Growth 150 1504 Income Class 60 605 Crisis Risk Offset 80 806 Inflation Protection 100 1007 IG Fixed Income 115 1158 Absolute Return 65 659 Cash 30 30

10 Total 1000 1000

Asset Only Statistics11 Median Scenario Comp Return (22-year period) 73 7312 Average Scenario Standard Deviation (22-year period) 118 12113 Sharpe Ratio (22-year period) 041 04014 Sortino Ratio (22-year period) 074 074

15 Best Year Worst Year 298 -208

306 -210

16 Average 2-year Loss of Worst 10 -160 -164AssetLiability Statistics

17 Percent of Scenarios lt50 [during first 5-years] 75 7918 Median Funded Ratio [end of 5-years] 600 59919 Average Funded Ratio of Worst 10 [end of 5-years] 477 47620 Median Funded Ratio [end of 22-years] 994 99121 Average Funded Ratio of Worst 10 [end of 22-years] 671 66522 Median Avg Ann Employer Cntrbs Rate [during 22-yrs] 206 20623 Average of Yrs w Employer Cntrbs Rate gt30 [during 22-yrs] 44 47

bull For modeling purposes both indices have same volatility assumptions

bull Modeling the Focus Portfolio with the CS MF Index results in the same long-term return (line 11) and slightly higher risk (line 12)

bull Portfolio results are similar regardless of the trend following index used in modeling the total portfolio

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 27

Comparing Modeling of MLM 3x and CS MF IndexMLM 3x Index Credits Suisse MF Index

1970 1607 9491971 648 -5801972 278 12791973 9190 63231974 1458 51501975 -620 -20551976 851 14651977 374 15591978 -178 4531979 2107 31971980 -568 4861981 2839 18891982 1278 13801983 -1005 -11941984 1281 0881985 239 5561986 456 2281987 643 10851988 188 -10381989 809 0551990 657 3771991 -604 -7281992 -557 -12351993 481 14301994 549 -7851995 384 14781996 409 21071997 077 0061998 992 10741999 -564 -12982000 3782 0122001 043 0492002 -972 11652003 1191 39572004 992 0172005 456 1152006 -1329 24292007 -461 4192008 4324 42422009 -811 -3752010 1370 5092011 1740 -16162012 -1910 -22872013 -127 10762014 2995 28432015 1359 086

-4000

-2000

000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Annual Modeled Returns

$0

$500

$1000

$1500

$2000

$2500

Growth of $100

MLM 3x Credit Suisse Managed Futures

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 28

The Credit Suisse Managed Futures Indextrade is a systematic trend following strategy that trades a total of 18 futures contracts providing liquid and diversified exposure to market trends across asset classes geographies and time horizons The strategy tracks 16 time horizon signals to identify trends across various horizons ranging from shorter-term moving average (60 trading days) to longer-term moving average (360 trading days) The average length of moving average signal utilized is a 210 trading days moving average

bull Shortest signal compares the 60 (trading) day MA (moving average) versus 5 day MA

bull Longest signal compares the 360 (trading) day MA (moving average) versus 5 day MA

bull For each of the 18 different futures contracts (markets) total return index

- If average price in most recent 5 days is gt average price over 60 days =gt Buy the market (go long)

- If average price in most recent 5 days is lt average price over 60 days=gt Sell the market (go short)

bull Signals are equally weighted resulting in a portfolio of long and short exposures When signals align (strong trends) the index is more long or more short

Recommended Benchmark Index

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 29

The Credit Suisse Managed Futures Indextrade Markets Traded

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 30

bull Diversifies and balances risk across the four major futures market typesbull Rebalancing incorporates recent trailing volatility of each instrument traded

The Credit Suisse Managed Futures Indextrade Risk Allocation

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 31

Instruments Forwards

bull Agreement to buysell an asset at a future time for a specified price Long position = agree to buy at the future date Short position = agree to sell at the future date

bull Over-the-counter instrument (ie customized have counterparty risk)

bull Different than an option in that both buyer and seller have obligations

bull Essentially a contract that states Asset type and amount Future date of trade Future price of trade Settlement options (ie cash payment or delivery of asset)

bull Currency forwards can be more liquid than currency futures

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 32

Instruments Futures

bull Futures = analogous to forwards but exchange tradedstandardized Exchanges (eg CME Group) provide numerous services

o Guarantee contracts will be honored backed by exchange with is backed by all of the exchange members (de minimis counterparty risk)

o Facilitate transactionso Set margin requirementso Organize daily settlementmarking to marketo Arrange settlementdelivery procedures

bull Extremely liquid instruments

bull Vast majority of futures contracts do not lead to delivery

bull Regulated by the US Government Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 33

Futures Transaction Example

bull November crude oil contract (one contract = 1000 barrels of oil)

bull ldquoPricerdquo of contract = delivery price (ie futures are free) 1000 barrels $43 = $43000 of exposure (ie notional value)

o Longbuy position = agree to buy 1000 barrels in November $43barrelo Shortsell position = agree to sell 1000 barrels in November $43barrel

Initial margin = $3190 (ie money that must be deposited to trade)o Typically equal to roughly one-day maximum price fluctuationo Margin = embedded leverageo Exchanges require daily settlementmark to market

bull At contract expiration (or anytime while contract is traded) | longbuy ldquoSpotrdquo price = $50

o Gain = ($50-$43) x 1000 = $7000

ldquoSpotrdquo price = $40o Loss = ($40-$43) x 1000 = ($3000)

Gainslosses for shortsell positionare the opposite

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 34

Leverage in Trend Following Strategies

bull Futures contain embedded leverage

bull Trend Following strategies leverage asymp 0x-7x Averagefull-cycle leverage asymp 3x

bull Without leverage (ie 1x) strategy volatility may be asymp 6 (ie bond-like)

bull Leveragerisk oversight is key component of strategy selection

bull Leverage protections Futures have daily price limits and daily settlement

o Price limit = maximum change in contract priceo Exchanges will close out positions if failed settlement

Long and short positions partially offset leverage risks

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 35

CROSM Implementation Considerations (LongShort aspects)bull Long position ndash give up cash to buy a security (traditional)

bull Short position ndash sell an un-owned security receive cash liable for securityrsquos position

bull Because of the liability short positions require collateral as security collateral levels based on potential security movements not total value of positions

bull Minimum collateral requirements allow managers to apply leverage

bull Unlike typical leveraged situations collateral requirements re-set every day

bull Longshort portfolios contain many offsetting long and short positions itrsquos the net position that matters

bull Longshort portfolios utilize ldquoprimary brokersrdquo to effect these types of trades

bull In total across entire CROSM class hundreds of netted ls positions

Rhode Island SIC Systematic Trend Following 36

DISCLOSURES This document is provided for informational purposes only It does not constitute an offer of securities of any of the issuers that may be described herein Informationcontained herein may have been provided by third parties including investment firms providing information on returns and assets under management and may not have beenindependently verified The past performance information contained in this report is not necessarily indicative of future results and there is no assurance that the investment in question willachieve comparable results or that the Firm will be able to implement its investment strategy or achieve its investment objectives The actual realized value of currently unrealizedinvestments (if any) will depend on a variety of factors including future operating results the value of the assets and market conditions at the time of disposition any related transactioncosts and the timing and manner of sale all of which may differ from the assumptions and circumstances on which any current unrealized valuations are based

Neither PCA nor PCArsquos officers employees or agents make any representation or warranty express or implied in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained inthis document or any oral information provided in connection herewith or any data subsequently generated herefrom and accept no responsibility obligation or liability (whether direct orindirect in contract tort or otherwise) in relation to any of such information PCA and PCArsquos officers employees and agents expressly disclaim any and all liability that may be based on thisdocument and any errors therein or omissions therefrom Neither PCA nor any of PCArsquos officers employees or agents make any representation of warranty express or implied that anytransaction has been or may be effected on the terms or in the manner stated in this document or as to the achievement or reasonableness of future projections management targetsestimates prospects or returns if any Any views or terms contained herein are preliminary only and are based on financial economic market and other conditions prevailing as of thedate of this document and are therefore subject to change

The information contained in this report may include forward-looking statements Forward-looking statements include a number of risks uncertainties and other factors beyond the control ofthe Firm which may result in material differences in actual results performance or other expectations The opinions estimates and analyses reflect PCArsquos current judgment which maychange in the future

Any tables graphs or charts relating to past performance included in this report are intended only to illustrate investment performance for the historical periods shown Such tables graphsand charts are not intended to predict future performance and should not be used as the basis for an investment decision

All trademarks or product names mentioned herein are the property of their respective owners Indices are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index The index dataprovided is on an ldquoas isrdquo basis In no event shall the index providers or its affiliates have any liability of any kind in connection with the index data or the portfolio described herein Copyingor redistributing the index data is strictly prohibited

The Russell indices are either registered trademarks or trade names of Frank Russell Company in the US andor other countries

The MSCI indices are trademarks and service marks of MSCI or its subsidiaries

Standard and Poorrsquos (SampP) is a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc SampP indices including the SampP 500 are a registered trademark of The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc

CBOE not SampP calculates and disseminates the BXM Index The CBOE has a business relationship with Standard amp Poors on the BXM CBOE and Chicago Board Options Exchange areregistered trademarks of the CBOE and SPX and CBOE SampP 500 BuyWrite Index BXM are servicemarks of the CBOE The methodology of the CBOE SampP 500 BuyWrite Index is owned by CBOEand may be covered by one or more patents or pending patent applications

The Barclays Capital indices (formerly known as the Lehman indices) are trademarks of Barclays Capital Inc

The Citigroup indices are trademarks of Citicorp or its affiliates

The Merrill Lynch indices are trademarks of Merrill Lynch amp Co or its affiliates

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MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15x 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol 7030 Portfolio
1995 0219 0228 0265 1995 0219 0313 0265
1996 0311 0264 0146 1996 0311 0364 0146
1997 0154 014 0219 1997 0154 0175 0219
1998 0406 0209 0197 1998 0406 0269 0197
1999 007 0066 0182 1999 007 0053 0182
2000 0211 0087 -0056 2000 0211 0097 -0056
2001 0004 007 -0088 2001 0004 008 -0088
2002 0151 0112 -0138 2002 0151 0133 -0138
2003 0226 0213 0247 2003 0226 0317 0247
2004 0146 0042 0114 2004 0146 005 0114
2005 005 0063 0069 2005 005 0074 0069
2006 -008 0188 0151 2006 -008 025 0151
2007 -0009 0095 0075 2007 -0009 0112 0075
2008 0379 023 -0307 2008 0379 0344 -0307
2009 -0097 0009 0239 2009 -0097 0012 0239
2010 0099 005 0135 2010 0099 0072 0135
2011 0134 -0048 0002 2011 0134 -0073 0002
2012 -0172 -008 0135 2012 -0172 -0119 0135
2013 -0028 0075 0228 2013 -0028 011 0228
2014 0253 0158 0091 2014 0253 0231 0091
2015 0091 0036 -0002 2015 0091 0042 -0002
Return 110 101 80 Return 110 131 80
StDev 153 93 146 StDev 153 134 146
Corr to 7030 -023 005 100 Corr to 7030 -023 004 100
1 Year Correlation 3 Year Correlation
SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM
7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099
MLM Index 3X -054 -056 MLM Index 3X -023 -026
Credit Suisse Index -059 -055 080 Credit Suisse Index -021 -020 082
5 Year Correlation 10 Year Correlation
SampP 500 7030 MLM SampP 500 7030 MLM
7030 Portfolio 099 7030 Portfolio 099
MLM Index 3X -031 -033 MLM Index 3X -036 -036
Credit Suisse Index -027 -027 076 Credit Suisse Index -021 -021 066
20 Year Correlation
SampP 500 7030 MLM
7030 Portfolio 098
MLM Index 3X -027 -026
Credit Suisse Index -018 -016 066
Correlation to date Correlation to date
SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
SampP 500 Index 1 099 -054 -059 SampP 500 Index 1 099 -023 -021
7030 Portfolio 099 1 -056 -055 7030 Portfolio 099 1 -026 -02
MLM Index 3X -054 -056 1 08 MLM Index 3X -023 -026 1 082
Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -059 -055 08 1 Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -021 -02 082 1
Correlation to date Correlation to date
SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
5 5 5 5 10 Years 10 Years 10 Years 10 Years
SampP 500 Index 1 099 -031 -027 SampP 500 Index 1 099 -036 -021
7030 Portfolio 099 1 -033 -027 7030 Portfolio 099 1 -036 -021
MLM Index 3X -031 -033 1 076 MLM Index 3X -036 -036 1 066
Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -027 -027 076 1 Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -021 -021 066 1
Correlation to date
SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
5 5 5 5
SampP 500 Index 1 098 -027 -018
7030 Portfolio 098 1 -026 -016
MLM Index 3X -027 -026 1 066
Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol -018 -016 066 1
MLM 3x Credit Suisse 15 Vol 7030 SampP 500
Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio
Periods Ending 9302016
1 Year 85 124 07 24 162 01 125 105 12 154 125 12
3 Years 139 145 10 130 156 08 79 90 09 112 108 10
5 Years 33 129 03 46 138 03 120 92 13 164 111 15 SampP 500 Index 7030 Portfolio MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse MF Index 15 Vol
10 Years 58 163 03 79 144 05 62 124 04 72 153 04 Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date Annualized Return to date Annualized StdDev to date MPT Statistics to date
20 Years 98 141 05 117 147 06 71 121 04 79 154 04 Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g) Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g) Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g) Total Total Sharpe Ratio(g)
1 Year 1543 1246 122 1252 1052 116 846 1244 066 24 162 01
Statistical Measures 3 Years 1116 1083 102 792 897 087 1392 1446 095 130 156 08
Largest Drawdown - period Mar-09 - May-09 Mar-11 - Nov-12 Nov-07 - Feb-09 Nov-07 - Feb-09 5 Years 1637 1112 146 12 915 13 329 1288 025 46 138 03
Largest Drawdown - -2509 -277 -4216 -5095 10 Years 724 1525 041 621 1239 043 58 1627 03 79 144 05
Largest Drawdown - of months 3 21 16 16 20 Years 791 1535 036 711 1212 039 977 1408 053 117 147 06
Recovery Period Jun-09 - Jul-11 Dec-12 - Nov-14 Mar-09 - Apr-11 Mar-09 - Mar-12
Recovery Duration 26 24 26 37 00237 01617
01298 0156
Crisis Period Returns 00464 01383
LTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98) 121 143 -88 -100 00787 01439
Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02) 113 127 -145 -206 01172 01466
Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09) 326 277 -309 -388
MLM Credit Suisse 7030
Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio Annlzd Ret Annlzd Risk Sharpe Ratio
Periods Ending 9302016
1 Year 85 124 07 14 90 01 125 105 12
3 Years 139 145 10 90 103 09 79 90 09
5 Years 33 129 03 35 92 04 120 92 13
10 Years 58 163 03 58 97 05 62 124 04
20 Years 98 141 05 91 100 07 71 121 04
Statistical Measures
Largest Drawdown - period Mar-09 - May-09 Mar-11 - Nov-12 Nov-07 - Feb-09
Largest Drawdown - -2509 -1486 -4216
Largest Drawdown - of months 3 21 16
Recovery Period Jun-09 - Jul-11 Dec-12 - Nov-14 Mar-09 - Apr-11
Recovery Duration 26 24 26
Full - history semi-deviation 83 54 83
Full - history skewness 03 02 -08
Full- history kurtosis 47 -01 15
Crisis Period Returns
LTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98) 121 104 -88
Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02) 113 157 -145
Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09) 326 183 -309
SampP 500 Index MLM Index 3X woInt Credit Suisse Index 7030 Portfolio
Return Return Return Return
Total Total Total Total
Jan-73 -149 NA NA NA
Feb-73 -352 NA NA NA
Mar-73 009 NA NA NA
Apr-73 -384 NA NA NA
May-73 -164 NA NA NA
Jun-73 -04 NA NA NA
Jul-73 406 NA NA NA
Aug-73 -342 NA NA NA
Sep-73 427 NA NA NA
Oct-73 013 NA NA NA
Nov-73 -1112 NA NA NA
Dec-73 196 NA NA NA
Jan-74 -071 NA NA NA
Feb-74 -005 NA NA NA
Mar-74 -202 NA NA NA
Apr-74 -359 NA NA NA
May-74 -302 NA NA NA
Jun-74 -112 NA NA NA
Jul-74 -742 NA NA NA
Aug-74 -864 NA NA NA
Sep-74 -115 NA NA NA
Oct-74 168 NA NA NA
Nov-74 -49 NA NA NA
Dec-74 -158 NA NA NA
Jan-75 1273 NA NA NA
Feb-75 639 NA NA NA
Mar-75 255 NA NA NA
Apr-75 509 NA NA NA
May-75 476 NA NA NA
Jun-75 477 NA NA NA
Jul-75 -644 NA NA NA
Aug-75 -176 NA NA NA
Sep-75 -311 NA NA NA
Oct-75 654 NA NA NA
Nov-75 281 NA NA NA
Dec-75 -082 NA NA NA
Jan-76 1217 NA NA NA
Feb-76 -084 NA NA NA
Mar-76 338 NA NA NA
Apr-76 -08 NA NA NA
May-76 -112 NA NA NA
Jun-76 441 NA NA NA
Jul-76 -05 NA NA NA
Aug-76 -02 NA NA NA
Sep-76 258 NA NA NA
Oct-76 -191 NA NA NA
Nov-76 -045 NA NA NA
Dec-76 558 NA NA NA
Jan-77 -473 NA NA NA
Feb-77 -182 NA NA NA
Mar-77 -104 NA NA NA
Apr-77 038 NA NA NA
May-77 -198 NA NA NA
Jun-77 493 NA NA NA
Jul-77 -124 NA NA NA
Aug-77 -172 NA NA NA
Sep-77 015 NA NA NA
Oct-77 -394 NA NA NA
Nov-77 312 NA NA NA
Dec-77 071 NA NA NA
Jan-78 -573 NA NA NA
Feb-78 -202 NA NA NA
Mar-78 297 NA NA NA
Apr-78 901 NA NA NA
May-78 086 NA NA NA
Jun-78 -132 NA NA NA
Jul-78 584 NA NA NA
Aug-78 302 NA NA NA
Sep-78 -031 NA NA NA
Oct-78 -874 NA NA NA
Nov-78 213 NA NA NA
Dec-78 194 NA NA NA
Jan-79 443 NA NA NA
Feb-79 -321 NA NA NA
Mar-79 598 NA NA NA
Apr-79 061 NA NA NA
May-79 -218 NA NA NA
Jun-79 434 NA NA NA
Jul-79 133 NA NA NA
Aug-79 576 NA NA NA
Sep-79 044 NA NA NA
Oct-79 -639 NA NA NA
Nov-79 472 NA NA NA
Dec-79 22 NA NA NA
Jan-80 621 NA NA NA
Feb-80 -001 NA NA NA
Mar-80 -975 NA NA NA
Apr-80 462 NA NA NA
May-80 515 NA NA NA
Jun-80 316 NA NA NA
Jul-80 696 NA NA NA
Aug-80 101 NA NA NA
Sep-80 294 NA NA NA
Oct-80 202 NA NA NA
Nov-80 1065 NA NA NA
Dec-80 -301 NA NA NA
Jan-81 -42 NA NA NA
Feb-81 172 NA NA NA
Mar-81 399 NA NA NA
Apr-81 -194 NA NA NA
May-81 025 NA NA NA
Jun-81 -062 NA NA NA
Jul-81 021 NA NA NA
Aug-81 -578 NA NA NA
Sep-81 -492 NA NA NA
Oct-81 54 NA NA NA
Nov-81 412 NA NA NA
Dec-81 -256 NA NA NA
Jan-82 -13 NA NA NA
Feb-82 -559 NA NA NA
Mar-82 -052 NA NA NA
Apr-82 452 NA NA NA
May-82 -341 NA NA NA
Jun-82 -15 NA NA NA
Jul-82 -177 NA NA NA
Aug-82 1214 NA NA NA
Sep-82 124 NA NA NA
Oct-82 1151 NA NA NA
Nov-82 404 NA NA NA
Dec-82 193 NA NA NA
Jan-83 372 NA NA NA
Feb-83 229 NA NA NA
Mar-83 369 NA NA NA
Apr-83 788 NA NA NA
May-83 -087 NA NA NA
Jun-83 389 NA NA NA
Jul-83 -295 NA NA NA
Aug-83 15 NA NA NA
Sep-83 138 NA NA NA
Oct-83 -116 NA NA NA
Nov-83 211 NA NA NA
Dec-83 -052 NA NA NA
Jan-84 -056 NA NA NA
Feb-84 -352 NA NA NA
Mar-84 173 NA NA NA
Apr-84 092 NA NA NA
May-84 -556 NA NA NA
Jun-84 214 NA NA NA
Jul-84 -124 NA NA NA
Aug-84 1104 NA NA NA
Sep-84 002 NA NA NA
Oct-84 038 NA NA NA
Nov-84 -112 NA NA NA
Dec-84 264 NA NA NA
Jan-85 779 NA NA NA
Feb-85 123 NA NA NA
Mar-85 006 NA NA NA
Apr-85 -009 NA NA NA
May-85 578 NA NA NA
Jun-85 157 NA NA NA
Jul-85 -014 NA NA NA
Aug-85 -086 NA NA NA
Sep-85 -313 NA NA NA
Oct-85 462 NA NA NA
Nov-85 686 NA NA NA
Dec-85 484 NA NA NA
Jan-86 056 NA NA NA
Feb-86 747 NA NA NA
Mar-86 558 NA NA NA
Apr-86 -113 NA NA NA
May-86 532 NA NA NA
Jun-86 169 NA NA NA
Jul-86 -559 NA NA NA
Aug-86 741 NA NA NA
Sep-86 -827 NA NA NA
Oct-86 577 NA NA NA
Nov-86 243 NA NA NA
Dec-86 -255 NA NA NA
Jan-87 1347 NA NA NA
Feb-87 395 NA NA NA
Mar-87 289 NA NA NA
Apr-87 -089 NA NA NA
May-87 087 NA NA NA
Jun-87 505 NA NA NA
Jul-87 507 NA NA NA
Aug-87 373 NA NA NA
Sep-87 -219 NA NA NA
Oct-87 -2153 NA NA NA
Nov-87 -824 NA NA NA
Dec-87 761 NA NA NA
Jan-88 421 NA NA 349
Feb-88 466 NA NA 436
Mar-88 -309 NA NA 036
Apr-88 11 NA NA 066
May-88 086 NA NA -09
Jun-88 458 NA NA 252
Jul-88 -038 NA NA 02
Aug-88 -34 NA NA -286
Sep-88 425 NA NA 359
Oct-88 282 NA NA 344
Nov-88 -143 NA NA 034
Dec-88 174 NA NA 116
Jan-89 731 NA NA 398
Feb-89 -248 NA NA -089
Mar-89 232 NA NA 07
Apr-89 52 NA NA 323
May-89 405 NA NA 14
Jun-89 -057 NA NA 004
Jul-89 903 NA NA 742
Aug-89 195 NA NA -04
Sep-89 -041 NA NA 113
Oct-89 -232 NA NA -171
Nov-89 204 NA NA 23
Dec-89 24 NA NA 194
Jan-90 -671 NA NA -478
Feb-90 13 NA NA -08
Mar-90 264 NA NA -117
Apr-90 -249 NA NA -177
May-90 975 NA NA 786
Jun-90 -067 NA NA -001
Jul-90 -032 NA NA 019
Aug-90 -904 NA NA -722
Sep-90 -487 NA NA -53
Oct-90 -043 NA NA 295
Nov-90 646 NA NA 26
Dec-90 279 NA NA 235
Jan-91 435 NA NA 348
Feb-91 715 NA NA 62
Mar-91 242 NA NA 049
Apr-91 024 NA NA 058
May-91 431 NA NA 257
Jun-91 -458 NA NA -379
Jul-91 466 NA NA 377
Aug-91 237 NA NA 166
Sep-91 -167 NA NA 095
Oct-91 134 NA NA 152
Nov-91 -403 NA NA -26
Dec-91 1144 NA NA 76
Jan-92 -186 -50186134107 NA -101
Feb-92 13 -11806985257 NA 03
Mar-92 -194 -34682100213 NA -245
Apr-92 294 04856690806 NA 135
May-92 049 36691977834 NA 196
Jun-92 -149 3995994645 NA -144
Jul-92 409 58382478439 NA 241
Aug-92 -205 21392596519 NA 003
Sep-92 118 -10417441781 NA 069
Oct-92 035 -11426309261 NA -063
Nov-92 34 -24243841368 NA 231
Dec-92 123 03309287484 NA 157
Jan-93 084 12125566229 NA 109
Feb-93 136 59842293696 NA 136
Mar-93 211 -06484088187 NA 282
Apr-93 -242 09183032136 NA 027
May-93 268 -00124707027 NA 196
Jun-93 029 75565231659 NA 064
Jul-93 -04 34694235802 NA 068
Aug-93 379 26998187389 NA 356
Sep-93 -077 -35544940483 NA -032
Oct-93 207 12906000348 NA 154
Nov-93 -095 39231376084 NA -251
Dec-93 121 23140907663 NA 262
Jan-94 34 -16392143954 NA 357
Feb-94 -271 -5375365439 NA -19
Mar-94 -436 -17526970615 NA -389
Apr-94 128 -31042584129 NA 106
May-94 164 21687630069 NA 058
Jun-94 -245 -02802505425 NA -136
Jul-94 328 -09170406074 NA 249
Aug-94 41 03148132864 NA 3
Sep-94 -245 49091708791 NA -203
Oct-94 225 33710507687 NA 14
Nov-94 -364 -02736669026 NA -3 SampP 500 Index MLM Index 3X Credit Suisse Index 15 Vol 7030 Portfolio
Dec-94 148 11635880505 NA 095 Dec-94 100 100 100 100
Jan-95 259 1488846469 18462 078 Jan-95 103 101 102 101
Feb-95 39 18245801927 -04746 274 Feb-95 107 103 101 104
Mar-95 295 37741988604 70854 257 Mar-95 110 107 109 106
Apr-95 294 20196669281 31179 254 Apr-95 113 109 112 109
May-95 4 4438151788 78944 291 May-95 117 114 121 112
Jun-95 232 15287989065 -04753 152 Jun-95 120 116 120 114
Jul-95 332 -14769041128 -2252 32 Jul-95 124 114 117 117
Aug-95 025 -36439459991 -31269 016 Aug-95 125 110 114 118
Sep-95 422 05926567612 39491 274 Sep-95 130 111 118 121
Oct-95 -036 2635846499 25163 -064 Oct-95 129 114 121 120
Nov-95 439 27162162082 33589 332 Nov-95 135 117 125 124
Dec-95 193 4331305919 47021 198 Dec-95 138 122 131 126
Jan-96 34 19634168588 54269 207 Jan-96 142 124 138 129
Feb-96 093 -13857157749 -37777 042 Feb-96 144 123 133 130
Mar-96 096 3570816298 36706 074 Mar-96 145 127 138 131
Apr-96 147 47035792726 48573 151 Apr-96 147 133 145 133
May-96 258 04897246276 -23907 119 May-96 151 134 141 134
Jun-96 038 04231657395 28546 021 Jun-96 151 134 145 134
Jul-96 -442 -32825387444 -5322 -362 Jul-96 145 130 138 130
Aug-96 211 50232432929 29044 183 Aug-96 148 136 142 132
Sep-96 563 54206924649 82056 405 Sep-96 156 144 153 137
Oct-96 276 51159466491 83507 144 Oct-96 160 151 166 139
Nov-96 756 43728165918 864 527 Nov-96 173 158 180 147
Dec-96 -198 14093703517 -07113 -113 Dec-96 169 160 179 145
Jan-97 625 17011191838 -16167 314 Jan-97 180 162 176 150
Feb-97 078 -17477703643 -15622 041 Feb-97 181 160 173 150
Mar-97 -411 -0910181567 12022 -309 Mar-97 174 158 175 145
Apr-97 597 09232176853 15126 349 Apr-97 184 160 178 151
May-97 609 -06805906276 09263 543 May-97 195 159 180 159
Jun-97 448 14017438969 -08095 375 Jun-97 204 161 178 165
Jul-97 796 41579104051 60499 584 Jul-97 220 167 189 174
Aug-97 -56 -24491709033 -58848 -401 Aug-97 208 163 178 167
Sep-97 548 23206853381 65934 476 Sep-97 219 167 190 175
Oct-97 -334 3155194786 26194 -317 Oct-97 212 172 195 170
Nov-97 463 1734137994 34076 24 Nov-97 222 175 201 174
Dec-97 172 50839377232 45191 168 Dec-97 226 184 210 177
Jan-98 111 -0540706989 01984 101 Jan-98 228 183 211 178
Feb-98 721 40902523842 09547 561 Feb-98 245 191 213 189
Mar-98 512 4564059454 36725 385 Mar-98 257 200 221 196
Apr-98 101 10197007162 2729 086 Apr-98 260 202 227 197
May-98 -172 66464318242 49967 -174 May-98 255 215 238 194
Jun-98 406 14535097859 12227 237 Jun-98 266 218 241 199
Jul-98 -106 79600070571 25845 -106 143 Jul-98 263 235 247 197
Aug-98 -1446 85969949752 100188 -1191 Aug-98 225 256 272 173
Sep-98 641 -43471273323 13057 462 Sep-98 239 245 275 181
Oct-98 813 -21914686666 -48215 62 Oct-98 259 239 262 192
Nov-98 606 35427775078 -16838 49 Nov-98 274 248 258 202
Dec-98 576 46223079694 36184 48 Dec-98 290 259 267 211
Jan-99 418 11652083769 -13599 243 Jan-99 302 262 263 217
Feb-99 -311 08705260303 -29127 -306 Feb-99 293 264 256 210
Mar-99 4 -66775958823 -24295 326 Mar-99 305 247 250 217
Apr-99 387 22077437514 51823 383 Apr-99 316 252 263 225
May-99 -236 05593377297 -19638 -207 May-99 309 254 257 220
Jun-99 555 0821055256 43706 406 Jun-99 326 256 269 229
Jul-99 -312 -05417097185 00435 -19 Jul-99 316 254 269 225
Aug-99 -049 12651757883 01021 -075 Aug-99 314 258 269 223
Sep-99 -274 24672781685 05889 -147 Sep-99 306 264 271 220
Oct-99 633 -17330628613 -47866 486 Oct-99 325 259 258 231
Nov-99 203 37710155755 29817 248 Nov-99 332 269 265 236
Dec-99 589 30182108515 60293 568 Dec-99 351 277 281 250
Jan-00 -502 24897212667 -25282 -359 Jan-00 334 284 274 241
Feb-00 -189 -05713037029 10256 122 Feb-00 327 283 277 244
Mar-00 978 -24716293218 -3378 621 Mar-00 359 276 268 259
Apr-00 -301 03990582414 -22613 -331 1573 Apr-00 348 277 262 250
May-00 -205 24192880579 0877 -232 May-00 341 283 264 245
Jun-00 247 0878887186 -34187 3 Jun-00 350 286 255 252
Jul-00 -156 24260079771 12301 -165 Jul-00 344 293 258 248
Aug-00 621 75396102385 45179 559 Aug-00 366 315 270 262
Sep-00 -528 09222855204 04031 -385 Sep-00 346 318 271 252
Oct-00 -042 299852918 44133 -131 Oct-00 345 327 283 248
Nov-00 -788 5315579778 110553 -68 Nov-00 318 345 314 231
Dec-00 049 -25942802121 -17463 193 Dec-00 319 336 308 236
1-Jan 355 -00863561154 -04261 284 Jan-01 331 335 307 243
1-Feb -912 16209515233 74179 -716 Feb-01 300 341 330 225
1-Mar -633 48299554873 94097 -52 Mar-01 281 357 361 213
1-Apr 777 -43323517245 -65179 61 Apr-01 303 342 337 227
1-May 067 24991627761 11086 031 May-01 305 350 341 227
1-Jun -243 -01569851257 00543 -165 Jun-01 298 350 341 223
1-Jul -098 -21829671963 -05079 -093 Jul-01 295 342 340 221
1-Aug -626 -26070979092 17884 -404 Aug-01 276 333 346 212
1-Sep -808 10636654952 60561 -685 Sep-01 254 337 367 198
1-Oct 191 09408124501 22528 233 Oct-01 259 340 375 203
1-Nov 767 -16137664028 -837 519 Nov-01 279 334 344 213
1-Dec 088 07970479005 -2992 094 Dec-01 281 337 333 215
2-Jan -146 01132698972 -26759 -115 Jan-02 277 338 324 213
2-Feb -193 -02410246265 -26221 -106 Feb-02 272 337 316 210
2-Mar 376 -64656658879 -37678 312 Mar-02 282 315 304 217
2-Apr -606 01559405489 -06737 -3 Apr-02 265 315 302 210
2-May -074 19425675286 49554 -043 May-02 263 322 317 209
2-Jun -712 46154392532 59609 -498 Jun-02 244 336 336 199
2-Jul -78 -09755577412 44704 -592 Jul-02 225 333 351 187
2-Aug 066 36669673432 29178 074 Aug-02 227 345 361 189
2-Sep -1087 42995914132 68228 -728 Sep-02 202 360 386 175
2-Oct 88 -18586716944 -39428 521 Oct-02 220 354 370 184
2-Nov 589 -06691963741 -43217 423 Nov-02 233 351 354 192
2-Dec -587 10504712371 65168 -333 Dec-02 219 388 377 185
3-Jan -262 79413180181 78029 -186 Jan-03 213 419 407 182
3-Feb -15 5839796145 24675 -082 Feb-03 210 443 417 180
3-Mar 097 -4822187841 -49263 039 Mar-03 212 422 396 181
3-Apr 824 08044165566 01717 619 Apr-03 230 425 397 192
3-May 527 86017617168 75621 492 May-03 242 462 427 202
3-Jun 128 -16232843116 -23723 11 Jun-03 245 454 417 204
3-Jul 176 -58470688666 -38819 084 Jul-03 249 428 401 206
3-Aug 195 -01285241001 24459 191 Aug-03 254 427 411 210
3-Sep -106 62607424571 26964 031 Sep-03 251 454 422 210
3-Oct 566 09634730462 79884 431 Oct-03 266 458 455 219
3-Nov 088 23264834944 02951 12 Nov-03 268 469 457 222
3-Dec 524 14110879536 8856 41 Dec-03 282 476 497 231
4-Jan 184 19478633231 26613 172 Jan-04 287 485 510 235
4-Feb 139 52879779623 57235 144 Feb-04 291 511 540 239
4-Mar -151 2268957551 -03792 -05 Mar-04 287 522 538 237
4-Apr -157 -56830338449 -105019 -233 Apr-04 282 493 481 232
4-May 137 -16566072328 -32214 087 May-04 286 484 466 234
4-Jun 194 -17215338796 -23435 168 Jun-04 292 476 455 238
4-Jul -331 -06069797015 -19673 -258 Jul-04 282 473 446 232
4-Aug 04 -05707405134 -31134 082 Aug-04 283 470 432 234
4-Sep 108 70162697766 75979 145 Sep-04 286 503 465 237
4-Oct 153 34033420009 3203 17 Oct-04 291 521 480 241
4-Nov 405 45583596598 79681 368 Nov-04 302 544 518 250
4-Dec 34 01240939032 07905 307 Dec-04 313 545 522 257
5-Jan -244 16755564551 -35158 -181 Jan-05 305 554 504 253
5-Feb 21 -20025648058 07235 196 Feb-05 311 543 507 258
5-Mar -177 -10751895082 -32131 -158 Mar-05 306 537 491 254
5-Apr -19 -2390258099 -3307 -143 Apr-05 300 524 475 250
5-May 318 08685813036 14103 272 May-05 310 529 481 257
5-Jun 014 2223478206 2443 083 Jun-05 310 541 493 259
5-Jul 372 -21671781188 16173 293 Jul-05 322 529 501 267
5-Aug -091 49286219575 23044 002 Aug-05 319 555 513 267
5-Sep 081 37034231946 44919 108 Sep-05 321 576 536 270
5-Oct -167 -41709576663 -50465 -191 Oct-05 316 552 509 264
5-Nov 378 22186228209 731 307 Nov-05 328 564 546 272
5-Dec 003 15087373486 26914 097 Dec-05 328 572 561 275
6-Jan 265 05184116785 49735 32 Jan-06 337 575 588 284
6-Feb 027 -12693666599 -08661 013 Feb-06 338 568 583 284
6-Mar 125 20763323239 66529 136 Mar-06 342 580 622 288
6-Apr 134 -11401031738 110633 149 Apr-06 346 573 691 292
6-May -288 -38328436628 -15079 -283 May-06 336 551 681 284
6-Jun 014 -17992981531 -41286 014 Jun-06 337 541 652 285
6-Jul 062 -32543371611 -14002 038 Jul-06 339 524 643 286
6-Aug 238 -01076272465 29098 232 Aug-06 347 523 662 292
6-Sep 258 07974403785 -03827 16 Sep-06 356 527 659 297
6-Oct 326 -29512764216 -00218 309 Oct-06 368 512 659 306
6-Nov 19 03172013357 58364 222 Nov-06 375 513 698 313
6-Dec 14 25165243518 03787 117 Dec-06 380 526 700 317
7-Jan 151 -10891073316 07036 127 Jan-07 386 520 705 321
7-Feb -196 -0242828355 -13437 -066 Feb-07 378 519 696 318
7-Mar 112 -24787732727 -10187 115 Mar-07 382 506 689 322
7-Apr 443 02879881174 68079 345 Apr-07 399 508 736 333
7-May 349 04724656451 33768 267 May-07 413 510 761 342
7-Jun -166 06726351642 29473 -111 Jun-07 406 514 783 338
7-Jul -31 -10308231752 -62002 -209 Jul-07 394 508 734 331
7-Aug 15 -48378452877 -4152 085 Aug-07 400 484 704 334
7-Sep 374 50760632525 70341 364 Sep-07 415 508 753 346
7-Oct 159 36478459472 64209 235 2672 Oct-07 421 527 802 354
7-Nov -418 -09519733939 -29049 -338 Nov-07 404 522 779 342
7-Dec -069 -00407441673 00631 -06 Dec-07 401 522 779 340
8-Jan -6 38885050267 87377 -527 Jan-08 377 542 847 322
8-Feb -325 79938792923 97517 -138 Feb-08 364 585 930 318
8-Mar -043 -01164410281 -17484 -069 Mar-08 363 585 913 316
8-Apr 487 -11768609649 -73215 412 Apr-08 381 578 847 329
8-May 13 26727320318 02045 143 May-08 385 593 848 334
8-Jun -843 38796643349 38908 -664 Jun-08 353 616 881 311
8-Jul -084 -111000927524 -63133 -116 Jul-08 350 548 826 308
8-Aug 145 -81389596386 09693 032 Aug-08 355 503 834 309
8-Sep -891 2350077992 4926 -863 Sep-08 323 515 875 282
8-Oct -1679 231353875038 118043 -1488 Oct-08 269 634 978 240
8-Nov -718 91409930423 52566 -464 Nov-08 250 692 1029 229
8-Dec 106 39012647249 17001 298 Dec-08 252 719 1047 236
9-Jan -843 36085657209 -01782 -629 Jan-09 231 745 1045 221
9-Feb -1065 17480110926 0841 -723 Feb-09 207 758 1054 205
9-Mar 876 -40891209192 -17399 626 Mar-09 225 727 1035 218
9-Apr 957 -52452980511 -24793 785 Apr-09 246 689 1010 235
9-May 559 -175764056892 24393 525 May-09 260 568 1034 247
9-Jun 02 26344903362 -3873 018 Jun-09 260 583 994 248
9-Jul 756 29911557926 15775 638 Jul-09 280 600 1010 264
9-Aug 361 66647387555 02737 292 Aug-09 290 640 1013 271
9-Sep 373 19908108013 31657 353 Sep-09 301 653 1045 281
9-Oct -186 -1135758063 -18836 -156 Oct-09 295 646 1025 276
9-Nov 6 429598654 65618 406 Nov-09 313 673 1092 288
9-Dec 193 -3538041182 -30108 161 Dec-09 319 649 1060 292
10-Jan -36 -22840646395 -587 -256 Jan-10 308 635 997 285
10-Feb 31 13842186803 10589 206 Feb-10 317 643 1008 291
10-Mar 603 38205356429 32922 477 Mar-10 336 668 1041 304
10-Apr 158 14253968325 03791 14 Apr-10 342 678 1045 309
10-May -799 -05569215148 17471 -621 May-10 314 674 1063 290
10-Jun -523 -23229482293 07896 -318 Jun-10 298 658 1072 280
10-Jul 701 -52850060701 -35575 569 Jul-10 319 623 1034 296
10-Aug -451 76993453056 43121 -284 Aug-10 305 671 1078 288
10-Sep 892 05035470246 12552 702 Sep-10 332 675 1092 308
10-Oct 38 35726262618 52271 293 Oct-10 344 699 1149 317
10-Nov 001 -46572458071 -67101 -044 Nov-10 344 666 1072 316
10-Dec 668 71205616987 60114 502 Dec-10 367 714 1136 332
11-Jan 237 14260916813 02413 151 Jan-11 376 724 1139 337
11-Feb 343 -08196213636 14822 271 Feb-11 389 718 1156 346
11-Mar 004 -25144800567 -53504 026 Mar-11 389 700 1094 347
11-Apr 296 51621261523 44419 292 Apr-11 401 736 1142 357
11-May -113 -18535770592 -51957 -088 May-11 396 722 1083 354
11-Jun -167 08676483656 -46402 -14 Jun-11 389 729 1033 349
11-Jul -203 93387304437 48149 -126 Jul-11 382 797 1083 344
11-Aug -543 3189583693 00543 -469 Aug-11 361 822 1083 328
11-Sep -703 -41599527992 34989 -619 Sep-11 335 788 1121 308
11-Oct 1093 -13852548076 -6243 834 Oct-11 372 777 1051 333
11-Nov -022 39284953285 -00578 -096 Nov-11 371 808 1050 330
11-Dec 102 01889893545 02082 061 Dec-11 375 809 1053 332
12-Jan 448 -01521632453 -04526 426 Jan-12 392 808 1048 346
12-Feb 432 -22430032837 14221 342 Feb-12 409 790 1063 358
12-Mar 329 -12258940456 -21399 158 Mar-12 422 780 1040 364
12-Apr -063 13756177692 -18216 -038 Apr-12 420 791 1021 363
12-May -601 43616823461 38067 -528 May-12 394 825 1060 343
12-Jun 412 -61107318666 -83896 324 Jun-12 411 775 971 355
12-Jul 139 -2662867044 20145 115 Jul-12 416 754 991 359
12-Aug 225 -29540623033 -22929 186 Aug-12 426 732 968 365
12-Sep 258 -47724948882 -20234 22 Sep-12 437 697 948 373
12-Oct -185 -18050840884 -36659 -098 Oct-12 429 684 914 370
12-Nov 058 -03984415062 -0944 079 Nov-12 431 682 905 373
12-Dec 091 -17220762656 24366 124 Dec-12 435 670 927 377
13-Jan 518 -04335912154 32593 387 Jan-13 458 667 957 392
13-Feb 136 -29598734504 01523 08 Feb-13 464 647 959 395
13-Mar 375 -04786782014 2166 255 Mar-13 481 644 979 405
13-Apr 193 11854540053 29259 181 Apr-13 490 652 1008 412
13-May 234 -43222576245 -06784 082 May-13 502 624 1001 416
13-Jun -134 06875789801 10553 -177 Jun-13 495 628 1012 408
13-Jul 509 06412005306 -19554 423 Jul-13 520 632 992 426
13-Aug -29 11512128942 -11474 -214 Aug-13 505 639 981 417
13-Sep 314 -19925877399 -05148 361 Sep-13 521 626 976 432
13-Oct 46 -07538953205 -06933 349 Oct-13 545 622 969 447
13-Nov 305 27584740935 46402 189 Nov-13 562 639 1014 455
13-Dec 253 19377872096 15067 18 Dec-13 576 651 1029 463
14-Jan -346 -08961192857 -51141 -251 Jan-14 556 645 976 452
14-Feb 457 -00139276726 -05865 399 Feb-14 581 645 971 470
14-Mar 084 -34260446582 -18865 037 Mar-14 586 623 952 471
14-Apr 074 22210329784 03199 043 Apr-14 591 637 955 473
14-May 235 -07288421342 07134 197 May-14 605 632 962 483
14-Jun 207 05841054246 00135 195 Jun-14 617 636 962 492
14-Jul -138 -00888949644 03097 -153 Jul-14 609 636 965 485
14-Aug 4 18791535569 48657 313 Aug-14 633 648 1012 500
14-Sep -14 69028951277 63915 -221 Sep-14 624 692 1077 489
14-Oct 244 21563513841 15927 194 Oct-14 639 707 1094 498
14-Nov 269 72204527611 104647 19 Nov-14 657 758 1209 508 LTCMRussian Debt (July 98 - Sept 98)
14-Dec -025 76468641712 47745 -044 Dec-14 655 816 1266 506 Tech Bubble (April 00 - Sept 02)
15-Jan -3 54094515689 113573 -159 Jan-15 635 860 1410 497 Financial Crisis (Oct 07 - Feb 09)
15-Feb 575 -50846010492 -16603 45 Feb-15 672 817 1387 520
15-Mar -158 65245129876 57568 -083 Mar-15 661 870 1467 516
15-Apr 096 -88441663253 -51219 09 Apr-15 667 793 1392 520
15-May 129 40875447394 08884 073 May-15 676 825 1404 524
15-Jun -194 -66047202646 -62159 -171 Jun-15 663 771 1317 515
15-Jul 21 80060563143 34205 126 Jul-15 677 833 1362 522
15-Aug -603 -10026780942 -24342 -522 Aug-15 636 824 1329 494
15-Sep -247 36089130828 34355 -247 Sep-15 620 854 1374 482
15-Oct 844 -16993598229 -58073 637 Oct-15 673 839 1294 513
15-Nov 03 48441920313 30487 01 Nov-15 675 880 1334 513
15-Dec -158 11998205926 -10345 -173 Dec-15 664 891 1320 504
16-Jan -496 31480723033 48626 -453 Jan-16 631 919 1384 482
16-Feb -013 33572073647 44379 -002 Feb-16 630 950 1446 481
16-Mar 678 -61786855584 -39621 601 Mar-16 673 891 1388 510
16-Apr 039 -31282642584 09914 082 Apr-16 676 863 1402 515
16-May 18 -08911812015 -5253 107 May-16 688 855 1328 520
16-Jun 026 65324823204 94059 03 Jun-16 690 911 1453 522
16-Jul 369 21567955023 02767 348 Jul-16 715 931 1457 540
16-Aug 014 -15149 -44038 024 Aug-16 716 917 1393 541
16-Sep 002 10335 0967 025 Sep-16 716 926 1407 542
-41363
Correllation 100 -022 -015 097
skew -04 02 01 -08
Kurt 198 469 -028 186