PREDICTIVE POLICINGThe Optimal Forager and the Missing Dimension

ERIC HALFORD MA

Origin of ThesisNecessity - CSR and funding formulaEfficiency - Drive Towards Evidence Based Policing- How do you apply science to policing to Enhance Use of ResourcesEffectiveness – How to Continue or Maintain Unprecedented Reductions in CrimeEconomy – Better Value for Money Comprehensive performance management literature review

The Literatureo Criminology, Psychology, Policing

o Problem Orientated Policing – Reduction In NHPTs – All But Ceased

o Hotspot Policing – Effective But Needs To Evolve

o Intelligence Led Policing – Reduction In Intelligence Sees Framework Collapse

o Predictive Policing – Evolution Not Revolution

o Absence of Literature on What is Being Called Predictive Policing

o Empirical Literature Across Policing Academia has Somewhat Stalled

Predictive Policing

No Consensus on Definition but…Increased Efficiency and Value For Money:“With predictive policing, we have the tools to put cops at the right place at the right time or bring other services to impact crime, and we can do so with less” (Gascon, 2009).

Predictive PolicingDisparate Attempts to Introduce Across The UKSome Software Centric Approaches – i.e. PredPolPredominately Adopted in The Form of Optimal Forager/Near Repeat Victimisation 9 Potential Case Studies Identified

Predictive PolicingHow The Research Was Done:

3 Wholesale Case Studies20 + Interviews of Practitioners And AnalystsAnalysis of Crime RecordsQuestionnairesHundreds of Pages of Quantitative Analytical Reports

*Caveat - Access Denied To Study Pilots Using Software Approaches I.E. PredPol Which May Impact on Conclusions

The Optimal Forager• Pretext Is Simple – Criminals Behave As

Foraging Animals• Foraging Animals Target Areas Low in Risk,

High in Reward – Food is Their Target• Criminals Act in The Same Manner –

Realisable Property is Their Target

Op Forager is Fundamentally Flawed

Research Shows That All UK Implementations of Op Forager Assumes a Two Tier InteractionThe Criminal is The PredatorThe Victim is The Prey

Op Forager is Fundamentally Flawed

Ecology Literature However Identifies it as a Three Tier Interaction (Hugie, 1994 And Sih, 1998)Predator (Police – Capable Guardian) – Prey (Criminal – Motivated Offender) – Resource (Victim) Why is This Important?

What Ecology SaysThe Impact of Increased Predation Risk is Consistently Overlooked (Lima, 2005)Increased Predation on Foraging Animals Shows That it Does Not Reduce or Stop The Animals Foraging (Verdolin, 2005)It Forces the Forager to Alter Their Behaviour in a Number of Ways (Lima, 2002)

Changes in Behaviour1. The Forager Will Alter Their Selected Resource 2. They Will Reduce The Handling Time3. They Will Increase Their Vigilance In Response To Increased Predation,

Particularly On The Periphery Of Previously Foraged Areas (Kelley Et Al, 2001)

4. Higher ‘Giving Up’ Rate by the Forager Before Ultimately Seeking a New Foraging Patch (Kelly Et Al, 2001).

5. Forager May Also Choose to Begin Searching in Groups Which Provides Additional Security And Early Detection Of Predators (Berkley, 2000)

6. They Will Switch The Foraging Patch (Engelhart And Muller-schwarze 1995; Epple Et Al. 1993; Pfister Et Al. 1990; Sullivan And Crump 1984)

Identified Criminal Behavioural Manifestations1. The Criminal Changed the Type of Target i.e. From Dwellings to

Business2. Items That They Sought Changed to Ones That Had a Lower

Handling Time 3. The Criminal Became More Aware of Increased Police Presence.

As Such the ‘Giving Up’ May Increased 4. Particularly Prevalent at the Edge of Patches or in This Context,

the Predicted 400m Prediction Zones5. They Recruited Assistance – Social Contagion? Boost Impact6. Most Significantly, the Criminal Simply Changed the Patch and

Switched Their Activity From One Area to Another

The ResultMinimal, If Any, ‘Overall’ Crime Reduction Or PreventionIf Crime Reduction or Prevention Did Occur it Was Only Small, Short Term And Geo-SpecificSignificant Levels of Crime Displacement OccurredCan in Fact Increase Overall Crime if Implemented Ineffectively

On the Plus Side Crime Diffusion Was Present

How to Combat Behavioural Change?

It is Not a One Way InteractionThere Are Behavioural Changes That The Predator Can Make

When a Predator Can Move Between the Area of the Preys Resource and Natural Habitat, it Directly Impacts On The Prey’s Mortality and Negates any Antipredator Benefits of Moving Beyond Their Habitat

(Werner and Gilliam, 1984 and Bouskilla, 1998)

What Does That Mean?

If the Police Can Operate in Both the Area of the Criminal’s Home or Base and the Area the Criminal Commits Crime and Seeks Their Victims (Resource)……..……They Stand a Significantly Greater Chance of Apprehending or Deterring Them Completely

How Can We Do That?• Traditional Hotspot Policing AKA – Crime

Spikes• The Standalone Optimal Forager Predictive

Approach• The Wider Hotspot ‘PredPol’ Approach• Or, Something Entirely New?• A Combined Predictive Model

TRADITIONAL OR PREDICTED HOTSPOT APPROACH

Traditional Hot-spot or Predicted Forager Locality

Traditional or Predicted Hotspot Approach

Both Cause Crime DisplacementBoth Rely on Intelligence to Operate within the ‘Natural Habitat’However, some UK forces have experienced up to a 75% reduction in intel 2005-2015

Both End Up ‘Rounding Up the Usual Suspects’Is the Current NIM Framework Even Effective Anymore?

THE WIDER ‘PREDPOL’ HOTSPOT

……”You can’t just go and suppress all those small spikes in crime; you’re going to suppress the big hot spot……the small spikes in crime

that are out there in the environment are ready to nucleate into a new one.. However, the larger,

subcritical hot spots do not re-emerge after increased policing”

(Brantingham, 2006)

Translated = Unpalatable. You Probably Need a Big Budget And Lots of Resources Dedicated to Patrol Saturation

A Combined Predictive Model

EVOLUTION NOT REVOLUTION

Predicts Locality of Both Crime and OffenderOptimal Forager Crime Location Predictions Geographical Profiling to Predict the Serial Offenders Likely Home or Base

Purely Evidence Based and Scientific

GEOGRAPHICAL PROFILING DEFINITION

“An investigative technique used to

determine the most likely location of a

criminal’s residence based upon the

geographic location of crime sites”

(Prof. David L. Wiesenthal, 2012)

THE COMBINED PREDICTIVE MODEL

The StepsOffences Committed

Crime Linkage Analysis Identifies Serial Offending and Linked Crimes

Geographically Profile Linked Offences – Predict Offenders Natural Habitat

Optimal Forager Analysis – Predict Future Crime Area

Traditional Policing Techniques – Subsequent Use of Resources to Target the Profiled Areas and Suspects

The Predicted ResultEnhanced Focus on T&C of Finite ResourcesEvidence Basis for Target SelectionEvidence Basis for Priority Offender ManagementGreater ‘Overall’ Crime Reduction and Prevention PotentialReduced Crime DisplacementMagnified Crime Diffusion

The Potential BlockersCops are Rubbish at Crime Linkage

The Human Factor – Staff Must ‘Buy In’ for SuccessTraining is Key – Staff Must Understand the Theory to Buy InSenior Managers – Attitude and Support Will Make it Stand or Fall

The FutureMore Effective Ways to Link Crimes

Better Use of Big Data and Predictive Analytics

Predict Offenders Before They Offend

Intervention Pathways

SIMPLE'S!ANY QUESTIONS?