Credit Suisse Conference Feb 13, 2014
-
Upload
atwood-oceanics -
Category
Investor Relations
-
view
152 -
download
2
description
Transcript of Credit Suisse Conference Feb 13, 2014
1
February 13, 2014
Rob SaltielPresident and CEO
Atwood Oceanics, Inc.
Credit Suisse19th Annual
Summit EnergyConference
Atwood Advantage
2
Forward Looking Statements
Statements contained in this report with respect to the future are forward-looking statements. These statements reflect management’s reasonable judgment with respect to future events. Forward-looking statements are subject to numerous risks, uncertainties and assumptions and actual results could differ materially from those anticipated as a result of various factors including: uncertainties related to the level of activity in offshore oil and gas exploration and development; oil and gas prices; competition and market conditions in the contract drilling industry; the risks inherent in the construction of a rig; delays in the commencement of operations of a rig following delivery; our ability to enter into and the terms of future contracts; possible cancelation or suspension of drilling contracts; the availability of qualified personnel; labor relations; operating hazards and risks; terrorism and political and other uncertainties inherent in foreign operations (including risks of war, civil disturbances, seizure or damage to equipment, and exchange and currency fluctuations); the impact of governmental and industry laws and regulations; and environmental matters. These factors and others are described and discussed in our most recently filed annual report on Form 10-K, in our Forms 10-Q for subsequent periods and in our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission which are available on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov. Each forward looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation and we undertake no duty to update the content of this presentation or any forward-looking statement contained herein to conform the statement to actual results or to reflect changes in our expectations.
3
Investment Thesis
4
Atwood Oceanics Investment Thesis
Modern, high quality rig fleet
6 UDW floaters and 3 high-specification jackups delivered from 2011
Industry-leading margins and returns
Early cycle capital investment
Superior revenue efficiency and cost control
Consistent revenue and earnings growth through previous cycles
Earnings visibility, predictability and built-in growth
96% of 2014 available days contracted
Limited negative earnings revisions
Expect 15% EPS CAGR through 2016
5
Modern, High Quality Fleet- $4.5 billion Investment in Expanding our High Specification Rig Fleet
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Atwood Osprey
Atwood Orca
Atwood Mako
Atwood Manta
Atwood AdvantageAtwood Condor
CALENDAR YEAR
2015 EBITDA: Approximately 80%1 derived from UDW floaters and high specification jackups
Atwood Achiever Atwood Admiral
Delivered and Working Under Construction; Contracted
Atwood Archer
1 Source: FactSet dated February 6, 2014 and Internal Analysis
6
Specification“A- Class” Drillship
Typical 5th Gen Floater
Max Water Depth (Ft) 12,000 10,000
Max Drilling Depth (Ft) 40,000 35,000
Variable Deckload (mt)
23,000 20,000
Dual 15K BOP Yes No
BOP Rams 7 6
Hookload (Lbs) 2,500,000 2,000,000
Mud Pumps 5 4
Cranes 3 x 100 mt 3 x 85 mt
Compensating Crane Yes – 165 mt No
Active Heave with Crown-Mounted Compensator
Yes No
Atwood Advantage
Modern, High Quality Fleet- Bifurcation – Why the New Rigs will Rule
7
Modern, High Quality Fleet- Revenue-weighted Age of Fleet
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
DO RIG NE ESV RDC
Fle
et
Ag
e (
Ye
ars
)
Source: Johnson Rice & Company, January 2014
8
Revenue Efficiency
Industry-leading Margins and Returns- Achieving Top-Tier Execution
Cost Control
ProjectManagement
Best-in-class Operating and Net Margins
Consistent, Superior Shareholder Returns
2011- Atwood Osprey2012- Atwood Mako- Atwood Condor2013- Atwood Manta- Atwood Orca2014- Atwood Advantage- Atwood Achiever2015- Atwood Admiral
Key Enablers
- Centralized maintenance and technical support
- Consistent standards and institutionalizing lessons learned
- Common equipment across rigs and supplier consolidation
- Organic growth with proven rig designs and world-class shipyards
- Early capital project scoping and detailed project planning
- Experienced project management teams
Value Drivers
9
Industry-leading Margins and Returns- EBITDA Margin Comparison
Source: Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. – January 2014
FY'08 FY'09 FY'10 FY'11 FY'12 FY'13 FY'14 FY'1520%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
RIG ESV NE DO RDC ATW
10
Industry-leading Margins and Returns - Net Income Margin – trailing 8 quarters
ATW ESV SDRL DO NE RDC RIG*0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%34%
27% 27%24%
17%15% 13%
Source: SEC Financials – Trailing 8 Quarters Net Margin* RIG – Impairment loss not included
11
Industry-leading Margins and Returns- Consensus Earnings Reliability
Earnings revisions influence stock price performance
Source: Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.
Dec-1
2
Jan-
13
Feb-1
3
Mar
-13
Mar
-13
Apr-1
3
May
-13
Jun-
13
Jun-
13
Jul-1
3
Aug-1
3
Aug-1
3
Sep-1
3
Oct-1
3
Nov-1
3
Nov-1
3
Dec-1
30.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
2014 EPS Estimate Revisions
RIG ESV NE
DO RDC ATW
Ind
exed
to
12/
31/2
012
2013 Stock Price Performance
DO ESV NE RIG RDC ATW-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
12
Market Snapshot- Floater and Jackup Markets
Ultra-Deepwater Deepwater High-Spec Jackups
E & P project delays lead to lack of contract awards
Increased sublet availability in certain geographies
Increased customer interest for 2015 project starts
4th and 5th generation rig dayrates under pressure
52 UDW floaters scheduled for delivery in 2014 and 2015
Shipyard delivery delays easing contracting pressure
Atwood Advantage
Bifurcation effect to accentuate utilization differential
Several assets idle with limited contract opportunities
Region and asset specific challenges
Continued high utilization and steady dayrates
Newbuilds targeted for specific geographic areas
101 newbuilds scheduled for delivery in 2014 and 2015 - may reduce forward utilization rates for standard and commodity jackups
Atwood MakoAtwood Falcon
13
Earnings Visibility, Predictability and Built-in Growth- Atwood Fleet Contract Status - (by calendar year)
Rig Class/Rig Customer2014 2015 2016
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Ultra-Deepwater Drillships
Atwood Advantage Noble Energy $584K
Atwood Achiever Kosmos Energy Delivery mid-
2014$463K $595K / $661K*
Atwood Admiral Available Delivery early 2015
Atwood Archer Available Delivery Late 2015
Ultra-Deepwater Semisubs
Atwood Osprey Chevron $490K $470K
Atwood Condor Shell $555K
Deepwater Semisubs
Atwood Eagle Apache / Woodside $385K $460K
Atwood Falcon Apache / Murphy Oil $385K
Atwood Hunter GEPetrol $515K
Jack-Ups
Atwood Aurora Glencore / Addax $155K $164K / $193K*
Atwood Beacon ENI $175K
Atwood Mako Salamander $155K
Atwood Manta CEC International $160K
Atwood Orca Mubadala Petroleum $160K
Contracted (current)Contracted (follow on work)ShipyardMobilization (as of 2/01/14)
Firm Term 22.8 Rig Years
Firm Revenue $3.5 Billion
* Rates shown are “exclusive of tax / inclusive of tax”
$409K
$499K
Fiscal 2014 rig availability
14
Earnings Visibility, Predictability and Built-in Growth- Revenue Backlog Analysis as of February 1, 2014
2014 2015 20160
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
$829
$1,230
$960
$0.9B
N
$1.3BN
$1.3BN
$ Millions
Majors/Large NOCsLarge IndependentsSmall IndependentsFiscal Year
By Year By Customer Type
$
Percentage of Days Contracted2014 2015 2016
95% 70% 38%
15
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016F$0
$400
$800
$1,200
$1,600
$2,000
$527
$651$787
$1,265 $1,788
Note: Revenue and Net Income represented on fiscal year basis.Source: FactSet forecast consensus dated as of January 27, 2014
Earnings Visibility, Predictability and Built-in Growth - Steady Revenue and Earnings Growth: 2008 - 2016
$ Millions
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016F$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$215
$257
$272
$385 $570
$ MillionsRevenue Net Income
8 - Year C
AGR: 19%
8 - Year C
AGR: 15%
16
4Q102Q11
4Q112Q12
4Q122Q13
4Q132Q14
4Q142Q15
4Q150
50
100
150
200
250
ATW T4Q EPS
Peer T4Q EPS
Ind
exEarnings Visibility, Predictability and Built-in Growth - Trailing 4 Quarters EPS Growth, Indexed to Calendar Year 2010
Source – Johnson Rice & Company, January 2014
17
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
510535 525$4502
$7022
$5622
$60
1. Includes $230 million of maintenance and other CAPEX and capital spares for 2014 – 20162. Excludes all currently uncontracted operating cashflow
Earnings Visibility, Predictability and Built-in Growth- Planned Capital Expenditures Fully Financed
$ Millions• $1.6 billion1 in remaining total
capital expenditures as of February 1, 2014
• Approximately $1.7 billion in contracted after tax cash flow through FY2016 is available to fund these expenditures
• With current liquidity in the revolving credit facility of $245 million and the exercise of the $200 million credit facility accordion, CAPEX is fully funded
• Credit metrics peak in FY2014 with the delivery of the Atwood Achiever
Fiscal Year
2014 2015 2016
Contracted Operating Cashflow Debt CAPEX
$510
Debt/Cap (EOY) 40.6% 35.2% 27.3% Debt/EBITDA (EOY) 2.6x 2.0x 1.4x
18
Summary
19
Atwood Investment Thesis
Modern, High Quality Rig Fleet
Superior Shareholder
Returns through the Cycle
Industry-Leading Margins
Earnings Visibility and Reliability
Strong Balance Sheet providing
Financial Flexibility
Solid Earnings and FCF Growth
20
Thank You
www.atwd.comwww.atwd.com