Credit card market in Russia, I quarter 2013

Credit card market in Russia, I quarter 2013

New leaders of the Russian market

According to Q1 2013 results, the Russian credit card market grew by 11.4% to reach 747.5 billion Roubles (in Q4 it grew by 13.9%). The overall increase was 76.3 billion Roubles. In January–March Sberbank (+20 billion Roubles), bank Russian Standard (+15.8 billion Roubles) and Tinkoff Credit Systems (TCS Bank, + 7.3 billion Roubles) were leaders in terms of porUolio growth.

Trends and forecasts:

•  The Russian credit card market has grown by 11.4% up to 747.5 billion Roubles (in Q4 by 13.9%);

•  TCS Bank has risen to third place, having overtaken VTB24; and Alfa-‐bank reached 6th posiOon, overtaking Bank Svyaznoy;

•  Sberbank has lost growth momentum, while remaining the overall leader in terms of total porQolio gain; according to the results of the quarter the share of the five largest banks has shrunk;

•  As expected, the leveling of the low base effect has begun to affect the market growth rates as a whole, and the figures of individual players; the market anOcipates change of growth leaders.

1

April 29, 2013

The market size as of 01.04.13 747.5 billion roubles (+11,4% as compared to 01.01.13)

*See note at the end of the document

Bank Portfolio,-billion-roubles Market-share

Sberbank 169,3------------------------- 22,6%Russian-Standard-Bank* 116,7------------------------- 15,6%TCS-Bank 55,3--------------------------- 7,4%VTB-24 52,7--------------------------- 7,1%Orient-Express-Bank 40,9--------------------------- 5,5%AlfaFBank 36,8--------------------------- 4,9%Svyaznoy-Bank 32,3--------------------------- 4,3%OTP-Bank 31,4--------------------------- 4,2%HCF-Bank 23,4--------------------------- 3,1%Rosbank 16,8--------------------------- 2,3%


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Some changes have occurred among the three market leaders – TCS Bank has risen from the 4th to 3rd place in terms of credit card porUolio size, by increasing the market share from 7.2% as of the end of 2012 to 7.4% as of 1 April, 2013. Sberbank and Russian Standard have retained 1st and 2nd places respecWvely, having increased their share from 22.2% and 15% to 22.6% and 15.6%. VTB24 has gone down from 3rd to the 4th posiWon, lost market share which fell from 7.2% to 7.1%.

As of the end of Q1 the top ten major banks in the credit card market are as follows: Sberbank (with a porUolio of 169.3 billion Roubles), Russian Standard (116.7 billion Roubles), TCS Bank (55.3 billion Roubles), VTB24 (52.7 billion Roubles), Orient Express Bank (40.9 billion Roubles), Alfa-‐bank (36.8 billion Roubles), Svyaznoy (32.3 billion Roubles), OTP Bank (31.4 billion Roubles), HCF Bank (23.4 billion Roubles) and Rosbank (16.8 billion Roubles).

Dynamics of credit card por?olios, billion roubles

Banks 01.01.08 01.01.09 01.01.10 01.01.11 01.01.12 01.01.13 01.04.13Portfolio Market7share Portfolio Market7share Portfolio Market7share Portfolio Market7share Portfolio Market7share Portfolio Market7share Portfolio Market7share

Sberbank 0,7++++++++ 0,4% 2,5++++++++ 1,2% 8,3++++++++ 4,3% 25,4++++++ 11,2% 63,0++++++ 17,1% 149,3+++ 22,2% 169,3+++ 22,6%Russian+Standard+Bank 88,3++++++ 49,8% 70,9++++++ 34,5% 56,3++++++ 29,2% 49,5++++++ 21,7% 59,3++++++ 16,1% 100,9+++ 15,0% 116,7+++ 15,6%TCS+Bank 0,7++++++++ 0,4% 4,5++++++++ 2,2% 4,9++++++++ 2,5% 9,6++++++++ 4,2% 21,2++++++ 5,8% 48,0++++++ 7,2% 55,3++++++ 7,4%VTB+24 3,6++++++++ 2,0% 12,0++++++ 5,8% 19,2++++++ 10,0% 24,8++++++ 10,9% 34,5++++++ 9,4% 48,6++++++ 7,2% 52,7++++++ 7,1%Orient+Express+Bank 0,0++++++++ 0,0% 0,2++++++++ 0,1% 1,5++++++++ 0,8% 3,1++++++++ 1,4% 23,1++++++ 6,3% 45,1++++++ 6,7% 40,9++++++ 5,5%AlfaFBank 5,3++++++++ 3,0% 8,2++++++++ 4,0% 8,6++++++++ 4,5% 10,7++++++ 4,7% 13,6++++++ 3,7% 30,8++++++ 4,6% 36,8++++++ 4,9%Svyaznoy+Bank 0,0++++++++ 0,0% 0,0++++++++ 0,0% 0,0++++++++ 0,0% 0,2++++++++ 0,1% 12,4++++++ 3,4% 32,5++++++ 4,8% 32,3++++++ 4,3%OTP+Bank 5,0++++++++ 2,8% 6,8++++++++ 3,3% 6,9++++++++ 3,6% 12,5++++++ 5,5% 19,1++++++ 5,2% 29,9++++++ 4,5% 31,4++++++ 4,2%HCF+Bank 20,9++++++ 11,8% 21,7++++++ 10,5% 16,6++++++ 8,6% 11,1++++++ 4,9% 14,1++++++ 3,8% 19,6++++++ 2,9% 23,4++++++ 3,1%Rosbank 2,9++++++++ 1,6% 3,7++++++++ 1,8% 3,5++++++++ 1,8% 5,9++++++++ 2,6% 11,2++++++ 3,0% 15,4++++++ 2,3% 16,8++++++ 2,3%Citibank 6,8++++++++ 3,8% 10,7++++++ 5,2% 12,0++++++ 6,2% 12,9++++++ 5,7% 11,2++++++ 3,0% 12,6++++++ 1,9% 13,5++++++ 1,8%Trust 1,0++++++++ 0,6% 1,0++++++++ 0,5% 0,4++++++++ 0,2% 1,4++++++++ 0,6% 3,7++++++++ 1,0% 9,7++++++++ 1,4% 12,9++++++ 1,7%Privatbank 1,9++++++++ 1,1% 3,4++++++++ 1,7% 2,7++++++++ 1,4% 4,2++++++++ 1,8% 7,8++++++++ 2,1% 10,5++++++ 1,6% 12,1++++++ 1,6%Credit+Europe+Bank 1,3++++++++ 0,7% 2,9++++++++ 1,4% 3,2++++++++ 1,7% 5,2++++++++ 2,3% 9,5++++++++ 2,6% 11,7++++++ 1,7% 11,9++++++ 1,6%Renaissance+Capital 2,6++++++++ 1,5% 5,2++++++++ 2,5% 3,8++++++++ 2,0% 4,1++++++++ 1,8% 5,7++++++++ 1,6% 9,8++++++++ 1,5% 10,6++++++ 1,4%Raiffaisenbank 1,0++++++++ 0,6% 1,9++++++++ 0,9% 2,4++++++++ 1,2% 2,8++++++++ 1,2% 4,0++++++++ 1,1% 7,1++++++++ 1,1% 8,4++++++++ 1,1%MTS+Bank 1,5++++++++ 0,8% 2,5++++++++ 1,2% 2,1++++++++ 1,1% 2,1++++++++ 0,9% 2,5++++++++ 0,7% 6,4++++++++ 1,0% 7,4++++++++ 1,0%Avangard 6,7++++++++ 3,8% 9,1++++++++ 4,4% 6,1++++++++ 3,2% 4,3++++++++ 1,9% 4,2++++++++ 1,1% 6,2++++++++ 0,9% 6,9++++++++ 0,9%Uralsib 1,0++++++++ 0,6% 1,4++++++++ 0,7% 1,5++++++++ 0,8% 1,9++++++++ 0,8% 3,1++++++++ 0,8% 6,0++++++++ 0,9% 6,7++++++++ 0,9%SKBFBank 0,0++++++++ 0,0% 0,0++++++++ 0,0% 0,0++++++++ 0,0% 0,0++++++++ 0,0% 0,1++++++++ 0,0% 5,8++++++++ 0,9% 6,5++++++++ 0,9%Others 26,2++++++ 14,8% 37,2++++++ 18,1% 32,9++++++ 17,0% 36,0++++++ 15,8% 44,5++++++ 12,1% 65,2++++++ 9,7% 74,9++++++ 10,0%Total 177,4777 100,0% 205,8777 100,0% 192,9777 100,0% 227,6777 100,0% 367,8777 100,0% 671,3777 100,0% 747,5777 100,0%


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Banks’ shares in the credit card market

In addiWon to TCS Bank and VTB24 trading places within the top 10, another change of posiWons has occurred. Alfa-‐bank has risen from 7th to 6th posiWon, having increased its market share from 4.6% to 4.9% and pushing Svyaznoy down the rankings. In Q1, Svyaznoy’s porUolio has shrunk slightly, which resulted in a decrease of this bank’s market share from 4.8% to 4.3%.

SelecEve growth

Among 20 major banks more than half of the players have demonstrated growth rates above the market. The porUolios of the bank Trust (+32.7%), Alfa-‐bank (+19.3%), HCF Bank (+19.1%), Raiffeisen Bank (+17.1%), MTS Bank (+16.4%), Russian Standard (+157%), TCS Bank and Privatbank (+15.2%), Sberbank (+13.4%), SKB Bank (+13.2%) and Uralsib (+12.4%) have been growing faster than others. Svyaznoy (-‐0.4%) and Orient Express Bank (-‐9,1%) have reduced their credit card porUolio.

22,6%

15,6%

7,4% 7,1% 5,5%

4,9% 4,3%

4,2% 3,1% 2,3%

23,0%

Sberbank

Russian Standard Bank

TCS Bank

VTB 24

Orient Express Bank

Alfa-‐Bank

Svyaznoy Bank

OTP Bank

HCF Bank

Rosbank

Others


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Number of issued credit cards

(as of the end of the year)

The consistently high growth helped increase the market shares of six banks in the top 20. Russian Standard has shown the most significant gain for this value -‐ plus 0.6%, followed by Sberbank – plus 0.4%, followed by Alfa-‐bank and Trust – plus 0.3%, followed by TCS Bank and HCF Bank – plus 0.2%.

Credit card concentraWon in the market remains high – 58.2% of the market is accounted for by five major players. The year before this index was 55.7% (as of 1 April, 2012 года). The banks from the top 20 account for 90% of the market.

At the same Wme, in Q1 the share of the first five has slightly decreased -‐ by 0.2 percent points, from 58.4% as at the beginning of the year. Such dynamics has resulted from the slowdown of some major players as the other players became more acWve. The effect of the high base has probably begun to manifest itself in Sberbank’s sweeping ascent, which took first posiWon in the credit card market at the end of 2011. While remaining the leader in terms of total porUolio gain, the bank is demonstraWng the rates that are lower than its own last year results -‐ 3-‐5% per month instead of 5-‐11%.

Orient Express Bank is downsizing its credit card porUolio. Last year it already lost one posiWon to the compeWtors, having moved to the 5th place. If the current trends prevail, this market player may let Alfa-‐bank overtake it in the nearest future.

Size of the credit card market, billion roubles

2007 8%944%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%2008 9%296%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%2009 8%601%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%2010 10%047%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%2011 15%026%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%2012 22$483$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

177,4 205,8 192,9 227,6

367,8

671,3 747,5

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1q 2013


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The picture is changing

Beyond the first five the dynamics is also mulWdirecWonal. Alfa, which set to development of the credit card business with goodwill, remains one of the leaders in terms of growth rates, but the growth is far from stable: in January the bank increased the porUolio by 10.8%, in February and March -‐ by 3.9% and 3.7%. As it has already been noted before, one of the fastest growing banks of the previous year -‐Svyaznoy – has taken a Wme-‐out.

Bank Trust is keeping up high growth rates, giving rise to expectaWons that it will improve its raWng. MTS Bank, which last year had built up a significant margin from low base, has slightly slackened its pace.

Dynamics of the largest players within the year, billion roubles

-‐

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180 Sberbank

Russian Standard Bank

TCS Bank

VTB 24

Orient Express Bank


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On the whole, the beginning of the year has highlighted the tendency towards parWal change of the growth leaders in the market. The levelling of the low base effect, to which we referred in the review subject to the results 2012 года, is a common factor for the market as a whole, but it may play a more significant role for specific players. DifficulWes with business management and markeWng, exhausWon of specific resources of the client base increase, such as payroll card program, or the potenWal of the partner retail chain result in slowdown or standsWll in the growth of some players.

Change of posiEons among the top 10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Sberbank

Russian Standard Bank TCS Bank

VTB 24

Orient Express Bank

Alfa-‐Bank

Svyaznoy Bank

OTP Bank

HCF Bank

Rosbank


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This, on the other hand, opens new opportuniWes for the players who enjoy stable growth for conquering the credit card market. Forther developments depend on the macroeconomic situaWon in the country in general and the acWons of the bank managers aimed at the development of the promising card crediWng segment. Note (*): The management of the bank Russian Standard believes that the volume of the bank’s por?olio is larger, since some “card credits” are recognized by the bank in accounts 45505 (Loans and other money provided to individuals for a period from 181 days to 1 year), 45506 (Loans and other money provided to individuals for a period from 1 year to 3 years), 45507 (Loans and other money provided to individuals for a period over 3 years). Our experts’ opinion is that a classical credit card means a demand loan. For the purposes of the raRng we recognize the sum of the accounts 45508 (Loans and other money provided to individuals on a call basis) and 45509 (Loan provided in case of lack of money in the deposit account (“overdraU”)).

Por?olio growth leaders

Top$20$in$terms$of$absolute$growth,$April$2013

Gain,$billion$roubles

Top$20$in$terms$of$absolute$growth$for$the$year,$from$April$2012


Top$20$in$terms$of$absolute$growth,$from$the$beginning$of$2013


Sberbank 7,87 Sberbank 92,62 Sberbank 19,97Russian3Standard3Bank 5,24 Russian3Standard3Bank 51,98 Russian3Standard3Bank 15,84TCS3Bank 2,06 TCS3Bank 29,79 TCS3Bank 7,31VTB324 1,96 AlfaABank 21,90 AlfaABank 5,95AlfaABank 1,31 VTB324 14,81 VTB324 4,08HCF3Bank 1,26 Svyaznoy3Bank 14,50 HCF3Bank 3,75Trust 1,20 Orient3Express3Bank 10,40 Trust 3,17Leto3Bank 1,04 OTP3Bank 10,06 Leto3Bank 2,29Privatbank 0,74 HCF3Bank 9,04 Privatbank 1,60Rosbank 0,40 Trust 8,78 OTP3Bank 1,51MTS3Bank 0,37 SKBABank 5,64 Rosbank 1,39OTP3Bank 0,36 MTS3Bank 4,57 Raiffaisenbank 1,22Uralsib 0,31 Privatbank 4,18 MTS3Bank 1,05MDM3Bank 0,29 Renaissance3Capital 4,00 Renaissance3Capital 0,83UniCredit3Bank 0,28 Rosbank 3,85 Citibank 0,82Raiffaisenbank 0,24 Raiffaisenbank 3,73 SKBABank 0,76Gazprombank 0,22 Uralsib 3,05 Uralsib 0,74Renaissance3Capital 0,21 Leto3Bank 2,95 UniCredit3Bank 0,67Rosgosstrakh3bank 0,19 Gazprombank 2,66 Avangard 0,65Avangard 0,18 Avangard 2,13 Otkritie3Bank 0,46Total 26,15 Total 324,59 Total 76,28


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This report is made by the specialists of the Bank Tinkoff Credit Systems. For the purposes of drawing up the report the bank relied on the informaWon of the RF Central Bank.

On cooperaWon maoers please contact Oleg Anisimov [email protected]

TCS credit cards: hop://www.tcsbank.ru/credit. TCS deposits: hop://www.tcsbank.ru/deposit. TCS debit cards: hop://www.tcsbank.ru/debit/

© Tinkoff Credit Systems, 2013. All rights reserved. For quotes please refer to the bank Tinkoff Credit Systems.

Credit card market in Russia, I quarter 2013

Economy & Finance

Transcript of Credit card market in Russia, I quarter 2013