Creation of the Systematically Merged Pacific Ocean ... · Motivation Ocean Heat Content (OHC) and...
Transcript of Creation of the Systematically Merged Pacific Ocean ... · Motivation Ocean Heat Content (OHC) and...
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Creation of the Systematically Merged Pacific Ocean Regional Temperature and Salinity (SPORTS)
ClimatologyFor Typhoon Intensity Forecasts: Haiyan
C. E. McCaskill, L. K. Shay, and J. K. Brewster
NOAA NESDIS
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Motivation
Ocean Heat Content (OHC) and tropical cyclones (TC) Estimate OHC (and Evaluate Product)Create a climatology (SPORTS) for OHC estimation following
Meyers et al.(JAOT, 2014) for SMARTS
Super Typhoon Megi as seen from NASA's Terra satellite at 1am EDT Sunday 17 Oct 2010
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OHC is an important factor in hurricane intensification Opal, 1995 (Shay et al., 2000) Katrina, 2005 (Jaimes and Shay, 2009) Ivan, 2004 (Mainelli et al., 2008) Megi, 2010 Haiyan, 2011 Proven to improve Statistical Hurricane Intensity
Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) intensification forecasting (DeMaria et al., 2005; Mainelli et al., 2008)
Background
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OHC is an important factor in hurricane intensification Opal, 1995 (Shay et al., 2000) Katrina, 2005 (Jaimes and Shay, 2009) Ivan, 2004 (Mainelli et al., 2008) Megi, 2010 Haiyan, 2011 Proven to improve Statistical Hurricane Intensity
Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) intensification forecasting (DeMaria et al., 2005; Mainelli et al., 2008)
Background
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OHC is an important factor in hurricane intensification Opal, 1995 (Shay et al., 2000) Katrina, 2005 (Jaimes and Shay, 2009) Ivan, 2004 (Mainelli et al., 2008) Megi, 2010 Haiyan, 2011 Proven to improve Statistical Hurricane Intensity
Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) intensification forecasting (DeMaria et al., 2005; Mainelli et al., 2008)
Background
Hurricane Katrina2005
Hurricane Katrina2005
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OHC is an important factor in hurricane intensification Opal, 1995 (Shay et al., 2000) Katrina, 2005 (Jaimes and Shay, 2009) Ivan, 2004 (Mainelli et al., 2008) Megi, 2010 Haiyan, 2011 Proven to improve Statistical Hurricane Intensity
Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) intensification forecasting (DeMaria et al., 2005; Mainelli et al., 2008)
Background
Hurricane Katrina2005
Hurricane Katrina2005
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OHC is an important factor in hurricane intensification Opal, 1995 (Shay et al., 2000) Katrina, 2005 (Jaimes and Shay, 2009) Ivan, 2004 (Mainelli et al., 2008) Megi, 2010 Haiyan, 2011 Proven to improve Statistical Hurricane Intensity
Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) intensification forecasting (DeMaria et al., 2005; Mainelli et al., 2008)
Background
Hurricane Katrina2005
Hurricane Katrina2005
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OHC is an important factor in hurricane intensification Opal, 1995 (Shay et al., 2000) Katrina, 2005 (Jaimes and Shay, 2009) Ivan, 2004 (Mainelli et al., 2008) Megi, 2010 Haiyan, 2011 Proven to improve Statistical Hurricane Intensity
Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) intensification forecasting (DeMaria et al., 2005; Mainelli et al., 2008)
Background
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OHC is an important factor in hurricane intensification Opal, 1995 (Shay et al., 2000) Katrina, 2005 (Jaimes and Shay, 2009) Ivan, 2004 (Mainelli et al., 2008) Megi, 2010 Haiyan, 2011 Proven to improve Statistical Hurricane Intensity
Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) intensification forecasting (DeMaria et al., 2005; Mainelli et al., 2008)
BackgroundHurricane Ivan
2004
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OHC is an important factor in hurricane intensification Opal, 1995 (Shay et al., 2000) Katrina, 2005 (Jaimes and Shay, 2009) Ivan, 2004 (Mainelli et al., 2008) Megi, 2010 Haiyan, 2011 Proven to improve Statistical Hurricane Intensity
Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) intensification forecasting (DeMaria et al., 2005; Mainelli et al., 2008)
BackgroundHurricane Ivan
2004
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OHC is an important factor in hurricane intensification Opal, 1995 (Shay et al., 2000) Katrina, 2005 (Jaimes and Shay, 2009) Ivan, 2004 (Mainelli et al., 2008) Megi, 2010 Haiyan, 2011 Proven to improve Statistical Hurricane Intensity
Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) intensification forecasting (DeMaria et al., 2005; Mainelli et al., 2008)
Background
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OHC is an important factor in hurricane intensification Opal, 1995 (Shay et al., 2000) Katrina, 2005 (Jaimes and Shay, 2009) Ivan, 2004 (Mainelli et al., 2008) Megi, 2010 Haiyan, 2011 Proven to improve Statistical Hurricane Intensity
Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) intensification forecasting (DeMaria et al., 2005; Mainelli et al., 2008)
Background Typhoon Megi2010
Typhoon Megi2010
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OHC is an important factor in hurricane intensification Opal, 1995 (Shay et al., 2000) Katrina, 2005 (Jaimes and Shay, 2009) Ivan, 2004 (Mainelli et al., 2008) Megi, 2010 Haiyan, 2011 Proven to improve Statistical Hurricane Intensity
Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) intensification forecasting (DeMaria et al., 2005; Mainelli et al., 2008)
Background Typhoon Megi2010
Typhoon Megi2010
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OHC is an important factor in hurricane intensification Opal, 1995 (Shay et al., 2000) Katrina, 2005 (Jaimes and Shay, 2009) Ivan, 2004 (Mainelli et al., 2008) Megi, 2010 Haiyan, 2011 Proven to improve Statistical Hurricane Intensity
Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) intensification forecasting (DeMaria et al., 2005; Mainelli et al., 2008)
Background
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Motivation
OHC is an important factor in hurricane intensification Opal, 1995 (Shay et al., 2000) Ivan, 2004 (Mainelli et al., 2008) Katrina, 2005 (Jaimes and Shay, 2009) Megi, 2010 Haiyan, 2011 Proven to improve Statistical Hurricane Intensity
Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) intensification forecasting (DeMaria et al., 2005; Mainelli et al., 2008)
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Conceptual Model
SST – Sea Surface Temperature MLD – Mixed Layer Depth D26 – Depth of the 26°C isotherm D20 – Depth of the 20°C isotherm OHC – Ocean Heat Content
Integrated Thermal EnergyLeipper (1967)
MLD
D26
OHC
SST26°C
OHC cp (Tz 26D 26
Sfc )dzD
epth
Temperature
D20
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Basin-Wide SPORTS OHC
2.5-layer model uses SPORTS climatologywith daily SSHA and SST to estimate daily OHC
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Climatologies for SPORTS
Generalized Digital Environmental Model v3.0 (GDEM) GDEM v2.1 World Ocean Atlas 2001 (WOA)
(Figure from Shay and Brewster, 2010)
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SPORTS Climatology
Weighted blend of GDEM v2.1 and WOA climatologies Based on 267,540 quality controlled in-situ profiles Measuring accuracy of each climatology
Weighting equation for SPORTS value
RMSD (x'i xi)
2
n
xSPORTS xGDEM 2RMSDWOA
2 xWOARMSDGDEM 22
RMSDGDEM 22 RMSDWOA
2
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SPORTS Weighting Maps
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SPORTS Verification
~267,540 qc-ed data points over 12-yr period (00-2011)
Slope=0.99
Slope=0.96
Slope=1.02
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SSHA Mapping Error Field From Mariano and Brown (DSR, 1992)
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SPORTS in Action – Typhoon Haiyan
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T(z) Time Series During Haiyan at TAO Mooring
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Obs and Climatological T(z) (left) and Difference (right)
2013 Daily Temp Profiles
Climo Daily Temp Profiles
Temp Difference (2013-Climo)
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S(z) Time Series During Haiyan at TAO Mooring
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24-hr Low-Pass Filtered 10-m Currents During Haiyan
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Concluding Remarks
2.5 Layer model used to calculate OHC basin wide Satellite OHC good estimation (267,000 thermal Profiles!) Super Typhoon Haiyan
Intensified and sustained over high OHC (SSTs were relatively flat) Progress on TAO mooring Pre-storm conditions
In Situ OHC agreement with SPORTSWarming at depth relative to climatology, Cooling in Mixed
Layer Salinity max below MLD.
Oceanic ResponseReduction in OHC Tightening of salinity gradientNear-Inertial Current response at 8N periods of ~3 days
ARGO Float Analyses