Craig O’Riley & Adam Shell Office of Systems Planning Wednesday, December 1, 20101.

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Freight PlanningCraig O’Riley & Adam ShellOffice of Systems Planning

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

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Overview

Introductions FHWA Video: Planning for Progress Freight Planning

Where have we been? Where are we going? Stakeholders

Freight Modeling Overview Data Sources & Methods Application

ConclusionWednesday, December 1, 2010

http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/freightplanning/videos.htm

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Freight Planning: Where have we been?

Majority of freight moves on facilities owned by State and Local governments

Prior to 1970’s – All interstate transportation subject to Federal economic regulation

1980s – Deregulation Aviation Deregulation Act 1978 Motor Carrier Act 1980 Staggers Rail Act 1980 Ocean Shipping Act 1984


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Freight Planning: Where have we been?

Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) Added freight as a factor for states and MPOs to consider during

their transportation planning efforts

Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century (TEA-21) Encouraged states and MPOs to include shippers and freight

service provides in the transportation planning process

Safe, Accountable, Flexible, and Efficient Transportation Equity Act of the 21st Century (SAFETEA-LU) Works to enhance the freight planning efforts in ISTEA and TEA-

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Freight Planning: Where are we going?


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

s

Year

Iowa Population and Employment Trends

Population EmploymentSource: REMI

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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

19

90

= 1

00

Year

Growth in Demand Outpacing Population and Employment

Population Employment DemandSource: REMI

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114,740 miles of roadways

3,947 miles of railways

491 miles of navigable waterways

29,489 miles of pipelines

Iowa’s Freight Infrastructure

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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Inde

x 19

85 =

100

Year

Growth of Iowa Freight Traffic

Air Cargo Tonnage Rail Tonnage Truck VMT Water Tonnage

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Percent of Total Iowa Freight Tonnage By Mode

Mode 2009 2025 2040 Trend

Truck 87.4 87.7 88.6

Rail 8.4 8.3 7.8

Water 1.5 1.6 1.4

Air > 0.0 > 0.0 > 0.0

Multi Modes & Mail

1.7 1.5 1.4

Pipeline 0.9 0.7 0.6

Other & Unknown

0.2 0.2 0.2

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Freight vs. Passenger Transportation

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Freight vs. Passenger Transportation

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Public Sector Federal, state, local transportation planning agencies Economic development and trade organizations Federal, state, local law enforcement Non traditional federal, state agencies

Private Sector Shippers and receivers of freight (businesses) Freight transportation service providers Owners and operators of freight facilities Neighborhoods and communities affected by freight

transportation

Freight Stakeholders

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Infrastructure Condition and Capacity

Funding

Federal Livability Initiative

Climate Change / Air Quality

State’s Smart Planning Initiative

Emerging Issues

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75

100

125

150

175

200

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85

19

86

19

87

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88

19

89

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90

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91

19

92

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00

20

01

20

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20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

Ind

ex

19

85

= 1

00

Year

Iowa Roadway Mileage versus Truck VMT

Truck VMT Road Mileage

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Freight Modeling: Overview

“The economic competitiveness of our state is directly linked to how, why and where our businesses move their goods. Understanding these freight movements enables us to target policies and resources at highway, rail, water, and air corridors that will improve the State’s competitive position.”

- Elwyn Tinklenberg , MN DOT Commissioner of Transportation

Wednesday, December 1, 2010 Source: 2000 MN DOT Statewide Multimodal Freight

Flows Study

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Factors affecting freight demand Freight Transportation Modes

Air: cargo jets (Modal Characteristics Graphic)

Road: commercial vehicles (CV) or semi-trucks

Rail: freight trains Water: barges and ships (Compare Graphic)

Data Sources & Methods Application


http://www.iowadot.gov/compare.pdf

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Freight Modeling: Goods & Modal Characteristics

Wednesday, December 1, 2010 Source: 2007 QRFM II: Incorporating Freight into “Four-Step” Travel

Forecasting

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Factors affecting freight demand Freight Transportation Modes

Air: cargo jets (Modal Characteristics Graphic)

Road: commercial vehicles (CV) or semi-trucks

Rail: freight trains Water: barges and ships (Compare Graphic)

Data Sources & Methods Application


http://www.iowadot.gov/compare.pdf

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Freight Modeling: Overview Factors affecting freight demand

Economy (volume of goods produced vs. consumed)

Industrial Location Patterns (spatial distribution)

Globalization of Business Just-in-Time (JIT) Inventory Practices (Inventory and

Production in sync)

Centralized Warehousing (Increased use of 3PLs)

Fuel Prices Truck Size & Weight Limits (Increased payload requires

less trips and in return lowers operating costs)

Congestion Technology

Wednesday, December 1, 2010 Source: Quick Response Freight Manual. FHWA. 1996. pp.

2-3 to 2-10.

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Freight Modeling: Data Sources & Methods

Data Sources (many available….sort of! )▪ Carload Waybill Sample▪ Commodity Flow Survey (CFS)▪ Freight Analysis Framework (FAF)▪ LTL Commodity and Market Flow Database▪ National Transportation Statistics (NTS)

Limitations▪ Emphasis toward national and statewide▪ Frequency of data▪ Potential bias due to survey methods, unreliable

estimates, or lack of freight modal coverageWednesday, December 1, 2010

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Freight Modeling: Data Sources & Methods

Methods Simple Growth Factor Incorporating Freight into “Four-Step”

Model Process Commodity Models Hybrid Approaches Economic Activity Models

Wednesday, December 1, 2010 Source: Quick Response Freight Manual II. FHWA. 2007.

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Freight Modeling: Application

Truck sub-model

Trip Generation Stratify Employment by Industry Classes (NAICS)

▪ Agriculture, Mining, & Construction▪ Manufacturing, Transportation, Communication, Utils,

&Trade▪ Retail Trade▪ Office & Services

Determine appropriate truck classes (Small, Medium, & Heavy)

Calculate attractions by TAZ and set productions equalWednesday, December 1,

2010

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Trip Generation Trip Rates


Truck Trips Rates

Source: Quick Response Freight Manual. FHWA. 1996. p. 4-4.

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Trip Distribution Gravity Model Friction Factors (shortest path time adjustment)


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Traffic Assignment Preload with All-or-Nothing method

Model Validation Many tests similar to auto model validation. Each step of process (Trip Gen, Distro,…etc) Compare observed data to modeled output Compute statistics….

▪ And compare to other regions of similar size▪ By varying levels of area type, geography, or truck

type Scenario Tests & Performance Measures


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Sources to consider…

FHWA Talking Freight Seminars http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/freightplanning/talking.htm

Freight Model Improvement Program (FMIP) http://www.freight.dot.gov/fmip/index.cfm

Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) http://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/freight_analysis/faf/index.

htm

Quick Response Freight Manual II http://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/publications/qrfm2/index.

htmWednesday, December 1, 2010

http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/freightplanning/talking.htm

http://www.freight.dot.gov/fmip/index.cfm

http://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/freight_analysis/faf/index.htm

http://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/freight_analysis/faf/index.htm

http://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/publications/qrfm2/index.htm

http://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/publications/qrfm2/index.htm

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Conclusion


Iowa DOT Projects FRA Grant to update the Iowa Statewide Model Rail Plan Update Internal Freight Working Group Iowa DOT/Iowa DED Moving Iowa Forward Conference Freight Report Freight Plan Freight Performance Measures Iowa DOT Freight Advisory Committee

Multi-state Corridor Planning NASCO Mid-America Freight Coalition (MAFC)

What are we doing now?

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Questions?!


Adam [email protected]

Craig O’[email protected]

Office of Systems PlanningIowa Department of Transportation

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Craig O’Riley & Adam Shell Office of Systems Planning Wednesday, December 1, 20101.

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