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Craig James Presentation - Back to Normal #nMBPortDouglas
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Transcript of Craig James Presentation - Back to Normal #nMBPortDouglas
Craig James, Chief Economist, CommSec
May 2014
This presentation has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial
situation or needs of any particular individual. Before acting on the information in this
seminar, you should consider its appropriateness to your circumstances and, if
necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.
Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399
AFSL 238814 (CommSec) is a wholly owned but non-guaranteed subsidiary of
Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 and a Participant of the ASX
Group.
Examples used in this presentation are for illustrative purposes only.
The Big Economic Issues
� US ‘taper’: Smooth or bumpy?
� China: High road or low road?
� Australia: The ‘Baton-pass’
� Budget: Road to Surplus
� Housing: Boom or bubble?
� Aussie dollar: too high?
� Interest rates: When to move?
US taper: Smooth or bumpy?
China: High/low road? Biggest contributor to world growth
Slowdown – reasons to worry?
Australia
22 Consecutive years of
economic growth
2.7%Underlying
Inflation
rate
5.8% Unemployment
rate
+
=
Reasons for optimism
Baton pass: Mining to Housing
State of the States
Bubble trouble?
HOME PRICES
April 2014 6.7%
1.2%
11.6%
4.3%
3.8%
7.7%
4.7%
16.7%
Annual % change
Source: RP Data/Rismark, CommSec
Tripadvisor.com
Supply & demand
Changing times
US75c,
2004-06
US84c,
2007-09
US100c,
2010-12
US92-95c,
Now
More “normal” returns expected as
economy consolidates
Sharemarket
…”interest rates are likely to
be lower in such a world than
they were in a world in which
households were extending
their finances.”
ECONOMY: Returning to normal…3.0%
INFLATION: In Band…2-3%
UNEMPLOYMENT: Still low…5.75-6.25%
HOME PRICES: Growth between 5-7%
INTEREST RATES: Range 2.25-2.75% in 2014
SHAREMARKET: ASX 200 5,700-5,800pts (Dec 14)
AUSSIE DOLLAR: US97c (Dec 14)