Cradle Mountain Development€¦ · −Cradle Mountain is a primary gateway to the Tasmanian...

Cradle Mountain Demand Potential Assessment

February 2016

2

Contents

Introduction

Interstate findings

Intrastate findings

Overall execution imperatives

Appendix

3

Background and objectives

Background

−Cradle Mountain is a primary gateway to the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area

− It has been identified that the region would benefit from ‘precinct revitalisation’, hence the

development a Cradle Mountain Revitalisation Master Plan has been proposed

−BDA was commissioned to undertake a consumer demand assessment to provide input

to the Master Plan, in the form of a Cradle Mountain Demand Potential Assessment ►The demand potential assessment included online surveys in both interstate and intrastate markets

Primary objectives

−To provide consumer feedback in relation to the Cradle Mountain Master Plan concept

−To provide estimates of potential incremental demand for the region resulting from the

redevelopment

−To provide execution imperatives for the Cradle Mountain Master Plan

−To assess potential incremental benefit for Tasmania from the development

4

Fieldwork

BDA conducted the research via online surveys

− Interstate sample: ►644 interstate residents were surveyed, all of whom were considering visiting Tasmania for a holiday

in the next 2 years

• For the purposes of the demand projections international demand is assumed to convert in line with the tested interstate market

►A subset of 208 interstate residents were later recontacted to provide additional outputs, all of whom

had previously indicated that they were likely to visit Cradle Mountain

− Intrastate sample: ►211 Tasmanian residents were surveyed

Survey structure

−Respondents were exposed to stimulus of the Cradle Mountain experience

today, then the Cradle Mountain Master Plan concept

−Responses and intended behaviour measured for each element of the concept

5

Interstate findings

Recent demand trends

Pre-stimulus

−Past and future travel

Cradle Mountain today (post-stimulus)

−Core metrics and impact on intention

−Barriers

Redeveloped Cradle Mountain (post-stimulus)


−Details of intended Cradle Mountain trip

−New Cradle Mountain experiences

−Barriers

−Transport preference and pricing expectation

Incremental demand estimates

Summary and implications

6

Steady growth in Aus

overnight trips −Both interstate & inbound

demand up 7% year on year Interstate holidays growing but not as

strongly, up 2% year on year

Australia travel demand

0

5

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0

Jun 1

1

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Aus Interstate demand Overnight (millions) - 12MMT

Derived by BDA from NVS

Total

Holidays

0

1

2

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4

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9

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Aus Inbound demand Overnight (millions) - 12MMT

Derived by BDA from IVS

Total

Holidays

7

0

1

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3

4

5

6

Jun 0

8

Jun 0

9

Jun 1

0

Jun 1

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Tas travel demand

Total Tas demand

growing in line with Aus − Total Interstate growing 6%

year on year, inbound 7% Both largely in line with national

trends, hence share is steady

Tas holiday demand

very strong − Interstate growing 17% year

on year, Inbound 11%

−Both gaining share of Aus

demand

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Jun 0

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ou

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Tas Interstate demand Overnight (000's) - 12MMT

Derived by BDA from TVS

Tas % of Aus Interstate Share of interstate trips (%)

Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS

Total

Holidays

Total

Holidays

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0

Jun 0

8

Jun 0

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Jun 1

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Jun 1

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020406080

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Tas Inbound demand Overnight (000's) - 12MMT


Tas % of Aus Inbound Share of inbound (%)

Derived by BDA from TVS / IVS

Total

Holidays

Total

Holidays

8

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jun 0

8

Jun 0

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Cradle Mountain overnight demand

Cradle Mtn demand

also growing strongly − Interstate & Inbound both up

over 20% year on year And trending similarly

Nearly all trips are holidays

−Share of Tas trips recovering

from recent dip Early growth in recent cycle was

largely to Hobart..

..but regional areas (including Cradle

Mtn) now lifting strongly

0

20

40

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80

100

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Cradle Mountain Interstate demand Overnight (000's) - 12MMT


Cradle Mountain % of Tas Interstate Share of interstate trips (%)


Total

Holidays

Total

Holidays

05

10152025303540

Jun 0

8

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9

Jun 1

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Jun 1

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Cradle Mountain Inbound demand Overnight (000's) - 12MMT


Cradle Mountain % of Tas Inbound Share of inbound (%) Derived by BDA from TVS

Total

Holidays

Total

Holidays

9

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Jun 0

8

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9

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Jun 1

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Cradle Mountain day trip demand

Interstate day trip

demand steady −Not as strong as overnight,

hence day trips % is down

Inbound day trips

growing strongly − Largely in line with overnight

demand

0

20

40

60

Jun 0

8

Jun 0

9

Jun 1

0

Jun 1

1

Jun 1

2

Jun 1

3

Jun 1

4

Jun 1

5

Cradle Mountain Interstate day trips Day trips (000's) - 12MMT


Day trip share of total CM Interstate Share of interstate trips (%)


Total

Holidays

Total

Holidays

05

1015202530354045

Jun 0

8

Jun 0

9

Jun 1

0

Jun 1

1

Jun 1

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Jun 1

4

Jun 1

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Cradle Mountain Inbound day trips Day trips (000's) - 12MMT


Day trip share of total CM Inbound Share of inbound (%) Derived by BDA from TVS

Total

Holidays

Total

Holidays

Day trip demand refers to those who visited and

stopped at Cradle Mountain but did not stay overnight

10

Past & future travel (Pre-stimulus)

75

70

52

Overnight within own state

Travelled to another state

Travelled overseas

7

14

35

23

10

11

Day trip

1

2

3

4

5+

Leisure travel over the last 12 months (%)

Likelihood of visiting Cradle Mtn

region in the next 2 years (%)

# nights would spend in Cradle Mtn % Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs

Widely travelled −¾ have travelled intrastate,

70% interstate and ½ OS

− 100% considering visiting

Tas in next 2 years (by def'n) Big eastern states also considered by

~1/3, other slower

− 36% have been to Cradle

Mountain before

− 45% intend to visit Cradle in

the next two years i.e. very likely or certain to visit

1

13

31

32

13

10

Not at all likely

Not likely

Likely

Very likely

Certain

Not sure

36

64

Yes

No

Ever visited the Cradle Mountain

region in Tasmania (%)

100

68

64

64

57

51

45

39

Tas

Qld

Vic

NSW

WA

SA

NT

ACT

States considering travelling to for

leisure in the next 2 years (%)

Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey

Questions: Which of the following have you done in the last year? Which of the following

states would you consider travelling to for leisure in the next 2 years? Have you ever visited

the Cradle Mountain region in Tasmania?

Questions: How likely are you to visit Cradle Mountain region in Tasmania on a leisure trip

in the next two years? How many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle

Mountain region in Tasmania?

11

Stimulus – Cradle Mountain today

12

Base appeal of Today's Cradle Mtn

52% had No to Low

prior awareness of CM − 1/3rd were moderately aware,

only 15% high/very high

After being shown CM

experience stimulus… −…>85% found it appealing With 44% rating it 'very appealing'

CM experience generally

considered to be unique − 34% rated it 'very unique'…

−…while 57% said it was just

'somewhat unique'

4

3

7

42

44

Very unappealing

Somewhat unappealing

Neither/ not sure

Somewhat appealing

Very appealing

Appeal of the Cradle Mountain

experience (%)

0

1

7

57

34

Not at all unique

Not very unique

Neither/ not sure

Somewhat unique

Very unique

Uniqueness of the Cradle Mountain

experience (%)

23

29

34

10

5

No awareness

Low awareness

Moderate awareness

High awareness

Very high awareness

Previous awareness of the Cradle

Mountain experiences (%)


Questions: Before reading this information, how aware were you of the depth and range of

the Cradle Mountain experience? How appealing is the Cradle Mountain experience?

Questions: Thinking of all the different places you have travelled to, how unique would you

say the Cradle Mountain experience is?

13

Stimulus impact on intention

Minimal impact on intention to visit −While CM was considered appealing,

intention to visit is largely unchanged

−Again, a 2-3 nights the most preferred length

of stay

Likelihood of visiting Cradle Mtn in the next 2

years, after seeing stimulus (%)

3

8

32

28

15

14

Day trip

1

2

3

4

5+

# of nights would spend in Cradle Mtn % now Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs

2

11

31

32

13

11

Not at all likely

Not likely

Likely

Very likely

Certain

Not sure


Questions: Having seen this information, how likely are you to visit Cradle Mountain in the

next two years? How many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain

region?

Likelihood of visiting CM in next 2 years (%)

-13

-11

-1

-2

32

32

13

13

Pre Stimulus

Post 'Today' Stimulus

45

46

Certain Not at all Very Likely Not likely

14

Barriers to visiting today's Cradle Mtn

Amongst those unlikely to visit CM… −…Cradle Mtn's current offer just failing to

generate sufficient interest

−Nearly half said they had other places they'd

rather visit, and ¼ have it down the to-do list

− 19% have already been to Cradle Mountain

and are not interest in returning

−Cost and distance also a deterrent for some

49

26

19

18

15

10

9

8

6

3

3

3

1

1

There are other places I’d prefer to travel to

I would like to go, just not right now

Have been to Cradle Mountain before and amnot interested in returning

It costs too much to get there

I’m just not interested

The climate is unappealing

Too far from where I live

Not enough activities that I like to participate in

Don't see the value in this holiday experience

It takes too long / too hard to get there

Not intending to visit Tasmania

Not suitable for children

The accommodation is not appealing

I don’t know enough about it

Reasons why are you unlikely to visit Cradle Mountain,

after seeing stimulus % now Not at all/Not likely to visit in next 2 years, n=80


Questions: Which of the following are reasons why are you unlikely to visit Cradle

Mountain? (choose as many as apply)

15

Not intending to visit Cradle Mountain − Other destinations more appealing

►Other parts of Australia are more appealing

►I'll be mostly travelling overseas for the next few years

►Nothing to do there

− Been before, would rather go somewhere new

►Have been there before - would rather visit other places in

Australia that I haven't been to before

►I have been before, and whilst very enjoyable, I have lots

of other places on my list to see

►I was there not long ago & would like to see other places

− Outdoor activities unappealing for some

►Hiking & outdoor activities are not for me

►I don't like fishing or camping, bushwalking

►More interested in food and wine

− Current experience not suitable for all

►I have small children and small children can not walk that

long. Cradle Mountain is more for adults or teenagers

►Too old to enjoy all the experiences

►When I visited Cradle Mountain in years past I was much

fitter, one of the best things to do is the walks and I don't

think I would be up to it.

Intending to visit Cradle Mountain − Unique, remote wilderness where you can relax

►Beautiful rugged part of Australia unlike any other in its

wild and cool beauty: nature at its best

►Seems unique and very wild, not many people around

►A great place to get away from the busy Sydney life with

lots to do and relaxation

►The climate & landscape are so different to Queensland

− Experience nature through walks & other activities

►While I'm still able & fit enough to do some bushwalking

and experience the wonderful scenery and peacefulness

►I love visiting natural landmarks and enjoy walking in

nature and seeing wildlife.

►I can enjoy the beautiful view of Dove Lake, have a short

rainforest walk & see Tasmanian Devils. I also want to

experience canyoning which sounds very intriguing

− Positive recommendations/past experience

►The views and tranquillity were breath taking and I will go

back at one stage or another

► Friends have recommended I go there, and I've always

planned on doing so - I never realised though that it was

more than just a pretty view

CM today intention – Qualitative summary

Remote wilderness attractive & WOM positive, but not appealing enough / suitable for all

Question: Please briefly explain why you are likely / not likely to visit Cradle Mountain in the

next 2 years

16

Stimulus – Redeveloped Cradle Mountain

Note: abbreviated stimulus shown

17

Clear gains in intentions

for visit Cradle Mountain

region… −…with redevelopment of the

visitor experience Gaining in both the general likelihood

of visiting, and in degree of certainty

18% 'Certain' to visit redeveloped

CM, up from 13% as it is today..

..’Very likely’ also lifted from 32% to

37%

−Very low negative response 2% are ‘Not at all’ likely to visit

Shift summary: Intention to visit

Likelihood of visiting Cradle Mountain in next 2 years (%)

45

46


55


in the next two years? Having seen this information, how likely are you to visit Cradle

Mountain in the next two years?

Questions: Given the redevelopment of the visitor experience at Cradle Mountain, how

likely would you be to visit Cradle Mountain in the next two years?

-13

-11

-9

-1

-2

-2

32

32

37

13

13

18

Pre Stimulus


Post 'Tomorrow' Stimulus


18

Again, CM stands out as being highly unique −Redevelopment strengthens proportion that count it as 'very

unique; up from 34% to 43%

Redevelopment also lifting likelihood of visiting − 74% more likely to visit Cradle Mountain in light of the

proposed improvements..

− ..and over ½ intend to visit in the next 2 years Length of stay remains fairly steady (around 2-3 nights), though slightly more

now considering a longer visit (4+ nights lifting from 29% to 34%)

Impact of CM redevelopment

Uniqueness of the redeveloped

Cradle Mountain (%)

1

3

9

43

43

Not at all unique

Not very unique

Neither / not sure

Somewhatunique

Very unique

3

8

27

28

16

18

Day trip

1

2

3

4

5+

Likelihood of visiting the redeveloped

Cradle Mountain in the next 2 years (%)

# of nights would spend in redeveloped

CM region % Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs

2

9

22

37

18

12

Not at all likely

Not likely

Likely

Very likely

Certain

Not sure

Redevelopment impact on likelihood

of visiting the Cradle Mountain (%)

2

3

21

43

31

Much less likely

Less likely

Neither more orless likely

More likely

Much more likely



say redeveloped Cradle Mountain region is? Given the redevelopment of the visitor

experience at Cradle Mountain, would you be more or less likely to visit Cradle Mountain?


likely would you be to visit Cradle Mountain in the next two years? Given the redevelopment,

how many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain region?

19

− Enhanced accessibility for older visitors & children

►It makes the area accessible and more comfortable for

older visitors

►The area seems to be much more accessible and I

would very much like to take my children to see the area

− Lots to do other than bushwalking

►A lot more to do there these days other than go

bushwalking. I like the fact that this area has been

especially developed for day visitors by the inclusion of

organized group tours and the bistro and lounge areas

Not intending to visit redeveloped CM

− Some prefer it as is, development will bring crowds

►Just leave it alone, the whole reason to go there is to

enjoy natural beauty, anything manmade gets in the way

►I think it would still be worth visiting, but given that it

would attract more people and small children, I'd be less

willing to stay for a long time. It would be too crowded

− Less developed or overseas destinations preferred

►Have been before and would rather see other places. My

preference is to visit less developed natural areas

►I prefer to spend my holidays overseas

Intending to visit redeveloped CM

− Redevelopment adds to the experience

►Always wanted to return – this redevelopment, in

particular the skyrail, makes it even more appealing

►I love the region. The last visit was bleak and cold but

still enjoyable. The redevelopment would make it 200%

more enjoyable and memorable

►Warm and welcoming, hopefully this development goes

ahead. I always thought Cradle Mountain was a bit hard to

access, but this sounds very inviting

− Attractive facilities with increased comfort

►Haven't been on a skyrail before & views look amazing. I

enjoy the comforts of indoors but also enjoy the outdoors

►Everything sounds amazing, great places to eat,

beautiful location, great education, wonderful facilities

►Sounds like the kind of experience I would enjoy. I like

the idea of visiting CM but have been put off by the cold

and physical activity which I am not up to any more

− Showcasing the natural environment

►It is an amazing area and the redevelopment will

enhance but not detract (as it seems environmentally

friendly) from the area’s beautiful surroundings

Redeveloped CM intention: Qual. summary

Redevelopment enhances experience, comfort & accessibility though some prefer it as is

Question: Please briefly explain why you are likely / not likely to visit the redeveloped Cradle

Mountain region

20

Redeveloped Cradle Mtn Experiences

Very high appeal for redeveloped Cradle Mountain experiences: 83% finding the proposed changes appealing, 53% rating the overall

development 'very appealing‘ and Cable Car higher at 63% ‘very appealing’. Dove Lake Viewing Shelter next with 50%, though slightly higher

overall appeal. Other elements also rating very well. Events held at the Alpine Village Courtyard least appeal but still largely positive.

Appeal of redeveloped Cradle Mountain experiences (%)


Questions: How appealing are each of the following newly developed experiences?

-4

-3

-3

-4

-5

-5

-3

-3

-6

-4

-7

-3

-4

-3

-4

-2

-2

-4

30

21

35

39

38

39

43

45

40

53

63

50

42

36

36

35

35

29

Overall redevelopment

Cable car

Dove Lake Viewing Shelter

Pod Shelters along Dove Lake

The Cradle Feast

Alpine Village Guest Lounge Bar

Reimagined Visitor Centre

Visitor Centre Café

Alpine Village Courtyard Events

Very appealing Very unappealing Somewhat appealing Somewhat unappealing

21

Cradle Mtn Experience Appeal

Cable Car clearly the

most appealing element − 65% ranking it as the most

appealing aspect..

− ..of the Cradle Mountain

redevelopment Pod shelters a distant 2nd on 7%

No clear loser − 1/3rd not considering any of

the experiences unappealing

−Guest lounge most likely to

have least appeal..

− ..but still only 13%

13

12

9

8

8

7

6

6

32

Guest Lounge Bar at theAlpine Village

Events held at the AlpineVillage Courtyard

The Cradle Feast


Pod Shelters along the DoveLake Circuit Walk


Cable Car


None of the above

65

7

7

7

4

4

3

3

1

Cable Car



The Cradle Feast




Events held at the AlpineVillage Courtyard

None of the above


Least appealing experience of the

CM redevelopment % of those Likely-Certain to visit redeveloped CM

n=494

Most appealing experience of the


n=494

Questions: Which of the following newly developed experiences do you find the most

appealing? Which of the following newly developed experiences do you find the least

appealing?

22

Cable Car & Dove Lake

Viewing Shelter most likely to

be used −Cable Car tops the list with 83%

− 56% said they would use the

redesigned Visitors Centre

−Alpine Village events & facilities

have lowest planned engagement

Elements of the new visitor experience

Experiences would engage in, if visited Cradle Mountain % of those Likely-Certain to visit the redeveloped CM, n=494

83

74

65

60

56

53

52

41

Cable Car





The Cradle Feast

Guest Lounge Bar at the AlpineVillage

Events held at the Alpine VillageCourtyard


Questions: If you were to visit Cradle Mountain, which of the following newly developed

experiences would you engage in?

23

Viewing window & heated

natural shelters top appeal… −…of Dove Lake elements Hold greatest appeal for over ½

Experiencing nature in a comfortable,

independent and low impact way

−Activity booking and park info key

elements of the new Visitor Centre Booking activities most appealing to 61% of

those who would use the reimagined Visitor

Centre


61

51

47

38

35

34

29

28

26

17

1

Large viewing window overlooking Dove Lake

Warm viewing shelter crafted from natural materials

Heated, low impact pod shelters around Dove Lake

Information on local flora, fauna and history

Picnic facilities at Dove Lake

Café/kiosk at the Dove Lake Viewing Shelter

One-on-one park ranger engagement

Low impact space for contemplation

Dove Lake arrival terminal

Special children's area staffed by park rangers

None of the above

Most appealing elements of the new Dove Lake Mtn experience % that would engage in Dove Lake experiences if they visited Cradle Mountain, n=399

61

55

36

32

3

Booking activities such as horse riding, kayaking, quad biketours, canyoning, cycle hire and guided walks

National Park information

Outdoor equipment, local handicrafts and souvenir space

Regional interpretation

None of the above

Most appealing elements of the reimagined Visitor Centre % that would use the Visitor Centre if they visited Cradle Mountain, n=278


Experiences would engage in, if visited CM % of those Likely-Certain to visit the redeveloped CM, n=494

83

74

65

60

56

53

52

41

Cable Car





The Cradle Feast

Guest Lounge Bar, Alpine Village

Events at Alpine Village


experiences woud you engage in? Which of the following elements of the new Dove Lake

mountain experience do you find most appealing? Please select as many as apply.

Questions: Which of the following elements of the reimagined Visitor Centre do you find

most appealing? Please select as many as apply.

24

− Very good value

► It looks breathtaking and quite reasonably priced as well

►Offers the best viewing of the entire park with an

affordable price tag

− Positive past experience with cable cars

►I believe there should be more skyrails in Australia. The

one in Cairns is a tourist delight and perhaps more tourists

would be drawn to Tasmania with this unique experience

►I love skyrails!

− Ability to carry outdoor equipment attractive

►Being able to take outdoor gear on in the carriages

would make camping more appealing

− Accessible for elderly & children

►As an older person it sounds like a great way to get

close to nature and see it comfortably

►Even small children can enjoy the fun and scenery

− Concerns about spoiling wilderness for a minority

►CM is a recognised wilderness experience. Visitors

should be prepared to hike and deal with the elements.

Skyrail will degrade one of the world's most unique areas

►The construction of this will wreck the area, it is too

touristy and not in keeping with nature

− Fear of heights/water also a problem for some

►I don't like heights, or being over water

Cable Car

− Engage with beautiful environment in a spectacular

and low impact way

►It looks amazing! The ability to travel above the trees,

rivers and lakes and see the wildlife would be spectacular!

►Beautiful panoramic views and gliding through the air in

a nature wilderness is very appealing

►25 minutes of some of the best scenery on the planet

►Able to see everything - the spectacular scenery from

the top and those areas not accessible by foot

►This is the most genuinely appealing. Nobody can

improve on nature and this is what the Skyrail will show

►See the overall beauty of the place without disturbing it

− Comfortable, weather proof & no hiking required

►Able to experience the area in comfort all year round

►I never imagined I would be able to see that much of the

lake & surrounding valley, without trekking through there

CM Experiences – Qualitative Summary

Questions: Please briefly explain why you found [experience] the most appealing? Please

briefly explain why you found [experience] the least appealing?

-3 -7 21 63 Appeal


25


− Great for resting & shelter on independent walks

►I like the idea of being able to stop, rest, get warm,

maybe have a picnic, then moving on

►Getting older now and the ability to rest in the warmth

on a day walk is very appealing

►It's great to have shelter from the elements if necessary

►I prefer to explore by myself. Most of the other

attractions seem 'shared‘

− Man made structures may detract from nature

►For a 6km walk, I would hope there's not more then two

(one at the end of the walk, one midway). Too many of

these man-made structures would ruin the natural beauty

►Do not look particularly natural based on current design



− Enjoy the peace and views in a natural setting

►I enjoy mostly the peace and serenity of Cradle Mountain

and I find the viewing shelter to be more useful to me and

the reason why I visit there

►It appears to be one aspect which won't disrupt the

natural area so much. It blends into the environment

►So relaxing and beautiful. I could sit there for hours

− Not really necessary and may spoil beauty

►I would not really need a viewing shelter to enjoy the lake

►Has the possibility of tainting the lake’s natural beauty



-3 -3 35 50 Appeal -4 -4 39 42 Appeal


26


The Cradle Feast

− Enjoy tasting local cuisine, fun for the kids

►Have heard a lot of positive things about Tasmanian

cuisine

►We love experiencing food of the local area

►More for the kids to do and see

− But some prefer to spend time alone with

family and find food options unappealing

►Don't drink wine, and when on holidays I prefer to

spend time with loved ones not others

►Not much of a fan of overpriced gourmet food -

would rather have simpler choices of food and drink

Guest Lounge Bar

− Welcoming & comfortable after a day of hiking

►The thought of sitting at the end of a day out hiking with

a drink in front of a fire sounds amazing

►I would enjoy a quiet drink whilst viewing the beautiful

scenery

►It would be a welcome place to unwind after my

adventure

− Some feel it is 'touristy' and out of place

►You go there to look at the beauty of the place not to

drink and party. Sounds resorty and too touristy for me

►Looks expensive and too fancy for my tastes



-5 -3 38 36 Appeal -5 -4 39 36 Appeal


27

►It would be nice to relax with a coffee and cake after

exploring the area

►Will provide a nice break and spot to take in the views

− Some don’t consider the café a big attraction

►Seen one seen them all. No one travels to see a visitor

centre cafe.

►I would rather see the experiences than eat at a café


− Provide variety other than scenery

►I like to see and hear different things, not just visit scenery

►Sounds like a unique experience

►Varied and interesting, lively

− Some prefer quieter wilderness holidays

►We are there to view pristine nature: leave that kind of

razzamatazz to the more urban areas!!!

►I don't like crowds of people and prefer quieter places

when on holiday


− Good for information, park services & views

►A great place to hang out before & after exploring the area

►Good for all information on Cradle Mountain activities

►I can learn more about the region

►The range of services it will offer

− ‘Just a visitor centre’ to some, info online anyway

►Just a visitor centre. There's more exciting stuff out there

►Can find this information on the internet if you wish

►Entrance looks dull. Needs some murals and cultural

welcome signs as with many tourist info centres


− Current café could be improved, nice spot to relax

►The existing Visitor Centre Cafe is very basic and could be

improved a great deal




-3 -2 43 35 Appeal

-3 -2 45 35 Appeal

-6 -4 40 29 Appeal


28

Barriers to visiting tomorrows Cradle Mtn

A general lack of interest remains

the primary barrier for those still not

intending to visit Cradle Mtn −While the new experiences cuts down the %

that had already crossed CM off the 'to-do'

list (i.e. been before, don't want to return) Down to 10% from 19% after Cradle Mountain Today

stimulus

−…stronger pull of other destination, & cost of

Tas holiday, still keeping some away

Reasons why unlikely to visit redeveloped Cradle

Mountain region % now Not at all/Not likely to visit in next 2 yrs, n=70

40

27

16

14

11

10

7

7

7

6

3

1

There are other places I’d prefer to travel to


I’m just not interested



Have been to Cradle Mountain before and amnot interested in returning


Not enough activities that I like to participate in

It's negative impact on the local environment



I don’t know enough about it


Questions: Which of the following are reasons why are you unlikely to visit the redeveloped

Cradle Mountain region? (choose as many as apply)

29

Transport preference & pricing

Use of Cable Car would be

central to redeveloped CM − 86% would use it to travel between the

visitors centre & Dove Lake…

−…some combining it with a walk/cycle

to/from the lake

Cable Car considered good value −Cheaper than expected for 53%

Transport would use to travel between the Visitor

Centre & Dove Lake % of those Likely-Certain to visit the redeveloped CM, n=494

86

46

20

2

Valley Skyrail

Walk to/from Dove Lake

Cycle to/from Dove Lake

None of the above

Ticket pricing of Cable Car experience % of those Likely-Certain to visit the redeveloped CM, n=494

2

5

40

39

14

Much more than expected

More than expected

What I expected

Cheaper than expected

Much cheaper than I expected


Questions: If you were to visit Cradle Mountain, which of the following transport options

would you use to travel between the Visitor Centre and Dove Lake? If you would like to catch

the Valley Skyrail to Dove Lake and walk the return trip, please select both options.

Questions: The return trip Valley Skyrail experience will cost $10 for an adult and $30 for a

family. Are these ticket prices more or less than you would have expected?

30

Shift summary: Duration of stay

More likely to visit CM under

redevelopment…

…and likely to stay longer −More considering staying 4+ night in

redeveloped region (34%)…

−…than in current conditions (29%)

− Intended average length of stay up to 3.5

nights # of nights would spend at Cradle Mtn region:

Post 'Today' Stimulus (% Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs)

3

8

32

28

15

14

Day trip

1

2

3

4

5+

# of nights would spend at Cradle Mtn region: Post

'Tomorrow' Stimulus (% Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs)

3

8

27

28

16

18

Day trip

1

2

3

4

5+

# of nights would spend at Cradle Mtn region:

Pre-Stimulus (% Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs)

7

14

35

23

10

11

Day trip

1

2

3

4

5+

Average # of nights would stay at Cradle Mountain

Pre Stimulus



2.9

3.2

3.5


Questions: How many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain region? Questions: Given the redevelopment of the visitor experience at Cradle Mountain, how

many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain region?

31

Shift summary: Been to CM vs Not

Strong impact on those who have

been before −Previous visitors have higher intention to

visit redeveloped Cradle Mountain..

−…and the impact of the redevelopment was

also greater

−Previous visitors also likely to stay longer if

visiting again

Likelihood of visiting CM in next 2 years (%) n=401

42

45

53

Pre Stimulus



Avg # of nights would stay at CM n=401

Pre Stimulus



2.8

3.2

3.4

Have visited Cradle Mountain Before Have never been to Cradle Mountain


51

49

59

Pre Stimulus




Pre Stimulus



3.1

3.4

3.6



in the next two years? Given the redevelopment of the visitor experience at Cradle Mountain,

how likely would you be to visit Cradle Mountain in the next two years?

Questions: How many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain region?

Given the redevelopment of the visitor experience at Cradle Mountain, how many nights do

you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain region?

-14

-13

-10

-2

-2

-1

31

32

37

19

17

21

-13

-10

-8

-1

-2

-2

32

33

36

9

11

17

Certain Not at all Very Likely Not likely Certain Not at all Very Likely Not likely

32

New demand profile

New demand = those who

became intenders − After seeing the redevelopment

− A range of demographics make

up new demand Largely similar to total intenders

− Though more new demand from

the older age groups New demand also more likely to have low

(retirees) or very high income

Slightly more likely from NSW, WA and NT

6

23

18

13

17

23

9

23

21

17

13

16

18-24 years

25-34 years

35-44 years

45-54 years

55-64 years

65+ years

34

24

21

14

3

3

1

33

25

24

10

6

1

1

NSW

VIC

QLD

WA

SA

NT

ACT

33

27

16

7

5

4

3

4

34

29

12

8

5

3

6

3

Partner

Partner & dependents

Alone

With parents

Partner & adult children

Single with dependents

Flatmates

Other

24

15

21

10

10

5

8

3

2

19

17

16

19

11

7

7

2

2

Less than $40k

$40k-$60k

$60k-$80k

$80k-$100k

$100k-$125k

$125k to $150

$150k to $200k

$200k to $250k

$250k or more

Age (%) Location (%)

Household income (%) Household situation (%)

*NB: New demand = Not intending to visit current CM experience in next 2 years but 'Very

likely' – 'Certain' under redevelopment. Intenders = 'Very likely' – 'Certain' to visit

redeveloped CM.


48

52

50

50

Male

Female

Gender (%)

New demand (n=95) Total Intenders (n=354)

33

Assessing incremental demand

Core assumptions

− All potential visitors are assumed to be aware of the redeveloped Cradle Mountain

− All purposes of visitor are assumed to convert at the rate measured in the research

►All international demand is assumed to convert at the rate measured for Interstate respondents

− The results reflect visitors to Tasmania only, intrastate demand was not in scope

►Hence, any incremental demand from within Tasmania would be additional to the following estimates

− Excluding the impact of the redevelopment, the region and Tasmania are assumed to hold share of

national tourism demand (i.e. the Trend outlook)

− The tested impact is assumed to reflect an opening date of January 2018 and tested demand is

assumed to be fully realised by the YT Dec 2018

− The current mix of day and overnight visitors to the region is applied into the future

►Hence, any conversion of day visitors into overnight visitors would be additional nights over and above the following estimates

− Base expenditure in Cradle Mountain is estimated as follows:

►For overnight visitors to the region, average nightly accommodation expenditure in Tas by Cradle Mtn visitors is applied to all

nights spent in Cradle Mountain + 50% of average daily ‘other’ expenditure in Tas by Cradle Mtn visitors (excluding transport)

►For day visitors to the region, 50% of average spend per day (excluding accommodation and transport) is applied to all day

visits to Cradle Mountain

►Expenditure per night / day is assumed to grow in line with inflation forecasts

− Incremental expenditure scenarios are then applied:

►Scenario 1: Cable Car only. 83% would engage in Cable Car. At $10 per person = incremental $8.30 per person

►Scenario 2: Cable Car + additional F&B. 85% would engage with at least one of the visitors café, lounge bar, village events or

Cradle Feast. At an assumed additional expenditure of $10 per person = incremental $8.50 per person (+$8.30 for Cable Car)

34

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

Dec 0

8

Dec 0

9

Dec 1

0

Dec 1

1

Dec 1

2

Dec 1

3

Dec 1

4

Dec 1

5

Dec 1

6

Dec 1

7

Dec 1

8

Dec 1

9

Dec 2

0

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Significant incremental

visitor demand −Redevelopment estimated to

bring in 41k additional trips..

− ..in addition to demand

provided by market growth

−Majority of additional trips

are overnight

Visitors to Cradle Mountain

Total visitors to Cradle Mountain Interstate and International – All purposes of trip (000’s) - 12MMT

Derived by BDA from BDA AUSMO

Trend outlook

Projected demand

with redevelopment

2018 projections Trend outlook Projected with

redevelopment Incremental demand

Total visitors 203.7k 244.4k 40.7k

Overnight visitors 136.1k 163.3k 27.2k

Day visitors 67.5k 81.0k 13.5k

35

75

125

175

225

275

325

375

425

Dec 0

8

Dec 0

9

Dec 1

0

Dec 1

1

Dec 1

2

Dec 1

3

Dec 1

4

Dec 1

5

Dec 1

6

Dec 1

7

Dec 1

8

Dec 1

9

Dec 2

0

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

79k more nights in CM

from redevelopment − 29% more nights than would

otherwise be achieved

−Via from more visitors and

increased length of stay Resulting from the redevelopment

Nights at Cradle Mountain

Total nights at Cradle Mountain Interstate and International – All purposes of trip (000’s) - 12MMT


Trend outlook

Projected demand

with redevelopment



Total nights 276.0k 355.2k 79.2k

36

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Dec 0

8

Dec 0

9

Dec 1

0

Dec 1

1

Dec 1

2

Dec 1

3

Dec 1

4

Dec 1

5

Dec 1

6

Dec 1

7

Dec 1

8

Dec 1

9

Dec 2

0

Mil

lio

ns

Scenario 1: −Additional spend from

incremental visits & nights..

− ..plus Cable Car expenditure

−Substantial lift in regional

expenditure An additional $18m estimated in 2018

resulting from the redevelopment

Vast majority coming from overnight

visitors



− ..plus Cable Car spend &

additional F&B spend

−Greater lift again in regional

expenditure An additional $22m estimated in 2018

resulting from the redevelopment

Again most from overnight visitors

Expenditure at Cradle Mountain

Total expenditure at Cradle Mountain Interstate and International – All purposes of trip ($millions) - 12MMT


Trend outlook

Scenario 1: Projected $

with redevelopment + Cable

Car expenditure

2018 projections Trend

outlook

Projected with

redevelopment

(scenario 1)

Incremental

demand

(scenario 1)

Projected with

redevelopment

(scenario 2)

Incremental

demand

(scenario 2)

Total expenditure $50.9m $68.9m $18.0m $72.6m $21.7m

Spend by

overnight visitors $47.7m $64.3m $16.6m $67.4m $19.7m

Spend by day

visitors $3.2m $4.5m $1.3m $5.2m $2.0m

Scenario 2: Projected $ with

redevelopment + Cable Car

and F&B expenditure

37

Redevelopment

provides an additional: − 41k visitors and 79k nights to

the Cradle Mountain region

−Scenario 1 = $18m in

incremental expenditure

−Scenario 2 = $22m in


−Majority of new demand from

overnight visitors

Incremental demand summary

Additional

Trips to CM

Additional

Nights in CM

Additional

expenditure in

CM

(scenario 1)

Additional

expenditure in

CM

(scenario 2)

Total visitors 40.7k 79.2k $18.0m $21.7m

Overnight

visitors 27.7k 79.2k $16.6m $19.7m

Day visitors 13.5k n/a $1.3m $2.0m

Forecast incremental demand resulting from Cradle

Mountain Redevelopment (at YT Dec 2018)

38

Cable Car vs Shuttle Bus

Cable Car vastly preferred

over shuttle bus (83%) − 58% consider the redevelopment

less appealing without Cable Car

−…and 38% would be less likely to

visit Cradle Mountain

Cable Car vs Shuttle Bus: Option preferred as

part of the CM redevelopment (%)

83

9

8

Valley Skyrail

Shuttle bus

Neither / not sure

Impact on likelihood of visiting redeveloped Cradle Mountain if Shuttle

Bus replaced the Cable Car (%)

12

26

51

5

7

Much less likely to go if shuttle replaced Skyrail

Less likely to go if shuttle replaced Skyrail

Neither more or less likely/ Not sure

More likely to go if shuttle replaced Skyrail

Much more likely to go if shuttle replaced Skyrail

Impact on view of the Cradle Mountain redevelopment if Shuttle Bus

replaced the Cable Car (%)

20

38

26

8

8

Much less appealing if shuttle replaced Skyrail

Less appealing if shuttle replaced Skyrail

Neither more or less appealing/ Not sure

More appealing if shuttle replaced Skyrail

Much more appealing if shuttle replaced Skyrail


Questions: Which of these options would you prefer? If the Valley Skyrail was replaced with

a shuttle bus service, how would this change your view of the redeveloped CM region?

Questions: If the Valley Skyrail was replaced with a shuttle bus service, would you be more

or less likely to visit the redeveloped Cradle Mountain region?

Information: There is the potential for the Valley Skyrail not to be part of

the Cradle Mountain redevelopment. The Valley Skyrail could instead be

replaced with the existing shuttle bus service. The shuttle bus would

operate as it does today, travelling between the Visitor Centre and a

parking area and basic shelter near Dove Lake. The price of the shuttle

service would be the same as the Valley Skyrail ($10 adult return, $30

return for a family) and would operate when weather permits, whereas

the Valley Skyrail would operate year round in all weather conditions.

39

Intention if Cable Car replaced (New demand)

Cable Car major driver of

new demand − If the Cable Car was replaced with

the shuttle bus..

− ..only 14% of new demand stays

'Very likely' or 'Certain' to visit

−Hence, 86% of incremental

demand is at risk 43% now do not intend or aren’t sure and a

further 42% have shifted back to ‘likely’

Likelihood of visiting redeveloped Cradle Mountain in the

next 2 years, for those unlikely to visit CM today % of New Demand, n=95

0

0

0

93

7

0

Not at all likely

Not likely

Likely

Very likely

Certain

Not sure

Likelihood of visiting redeveloped Cradle Mountain in the

next 2 years if Shuttle Bus replaced the Cable Car % of New Demand, n=95

6

31

42

12

2

7

Not at all likely

Not likely

Likely

Very likely

Certain

Not sure


Questions: If the Valley Skyrail was replaced with a shuttle bus service, how likely would

you be to visit Cradle Mountain in the next two years? Questions: Given the redevelopment of the visitor experience at Cradle Mountain, how


New demand = New Demand respondents were not intending to visit

the current Cradle Mountain experience in next 2 years but became

‘very likely’ – ‘certain’ after seeing the redeveloped Cradle Mountain

concept stimulus.

40

Cable Car: Importance to redevelopment Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey

Questions: How important is the Valley Skyrail to the overall appeal of the redeveloped

Cradle Mountain experience?

AVERAGE 7.8/10 AVERAGE 7.6/10

4

1

14

40

42

1-2

3-4

5-6

7-8

9-10

5

2

14

43

36

1-2

3-4

5-6

7-8

9-10

New demand* Total intenders

10 = Very

important

1 = Very

unimportant

Cable Car key to appeal

of the development − 82% of total intenders rate

importance 7 or above 42% consider it 9-10

Very few consider the Cable Car

unimportant to the appeal of the

redevelopment

−Cable Car is similarly

important with New Demand i.e. those who became intenders after

being informed of the redevelopment

Importance of Cable Car to appeal of

redeveloped Cradle Mountain % of respondents very likely-certain to visit in the next 2 years, n=148, % of New Demand, n=42*

*Low sample size, indicative only. Sample derived from a recontacted subsample of the total interstate sample.

41

− Better value for money

►More fun then an old bus

►Better views of the beautiful scenery, worth the money

− More environmentally-friendly long term

►The Skyrail may be more expensive to set up but would

be cheaper and more environmentally friendly to run

Shuttle Bus − Lower perceived environmental impact

►It runs on roads already there, it won’t add to the

destruction of the natural beauty

►Less environmental impact. Although no transport would

be better still - just keep the bus for emergencies and keep

the tracks for walkers/hikers only

− May become too 'touristy'

►You will turn the place into just another tourist trap. The

beauty of the Tasmanian wilderness is because it's

unspoiled and undeveloped . What's next - carnival rides?

− Preferable for those with a fear of heights

►I don't like heights!

Cable Car the major driver for

visitation ►The rest of the development is really good, but the

skyrail makes the difference

►To be honest all the items are attractive but the Skyrail

would be amazing for the area & visitors. Sounds brilliant.

►Skyrail would be a reason to visit again

►The skyrail was the most eye catching feature for me,

without it my craving would drastically decrease

►We wouldn't spend as long there if this wasn't available

− More exciting and unique with better views

►Climbing above the tree tops with a great view of the

surroundings or on a shuttle bus - a bit of a no-brainer

►A wonderfully unique scenic experience could be had.

Without the Skyrail it is doubtful we would visit

►Having used skyrail in Qld, it is a more private and better

way to view the area. Also 360º photo opportunities

►More exciting and the view would be stupendous

− Can see CM in all seasons and all weather

►I would like to go in winter and see the snow

►If you hit bad weather and the bus does not operate,

your entire 2 days are wasted

Cable Car vs Shuttle bus – Qualitative

Cable Car exciting, unique & major drawcard, Bus less perceived impact for small minority

Questions: Please briefly explain why you would prefer the Skyrail/Shuttle bus. Please

briefly explain why you would be more likely/less likely to go if shuttle bus replaced Valley

Skyrail.

42

Influence of redevelopment (New Demand)

Of those who became intenders

of Cradle Mountain.. − ..after being informed of the

redevelopment i.e. ‘New Demand’ for Cradle Mountain resulting

from the redevelopment

− 12% said that development was the

primary reason for visiting Tas

− 67% were somewhat influenced by the

redevelopment .. … but may have chosen to visit Tas anyway

− 21% said that the development did not

influence their decision to travel to Tas Though still represent incremental for Cradle Mtn,

i.e. would not visit Cradle without the redevelopment

Influence of CM redevelopment on intended Tas trip % of New Demand, n=42*

12

67

21

Primary influence, unlikely to visitTas otherwise

Some influence, may visit Tasanyway

No influence, likely to visit Tasanyway

Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Recontact Survey

Questions: You indicated you were likely to visit Cradle Mountain in the next 2 years.

Which of the following best describes that intended trip?

New demand = New Demand respondents were not intending to visit the

current Cradle Mountain experience in next 2 years but became ‘very likely’

– ‘certain’ after seeing the redeveloped Cradle Mountain concept stimulus.

*Low sample size, indicative only. Sample derived from a recontacted subsample of the total interstate sample.

43

An additional 40.7k visitors are estimated to visit the Cradle Mt region − 16% of those would not travel to Tas if the redevelopment was not built

Hence, 6.6k visitors are incremental to Tasmania

Incremental demand to Tasmania

100

150

200

250

Dec 0

8

Dec 0

9

Dec 1

0

Dec 1

1

Dec 1

2

Dec 1

3

Dec 1

4

Dec 1

5

Dec 1

6

Dec 1

7

Dec 1

8

Dec 1

9

Dec 2

0

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Visitors to Cradle Mountain Interstate and International (000’s) - 12MMT


41k incremental

visitors to Cradle Mt (day & overnight visitors)

Influence of redevelopment % of New Demand, n=42*


84

16

Yes, I would mostlikely still travel to

Tasmania in the next2 years

No, I would most likelynot travel to Tasmania

in the next 2 years

6.6k incremental

visitors to

Tasmania

Question: If the proposed Cradle Mountain redevelopment was not built, would you still

travel to Tasmania in the next 2 years?



– ‘certain’ after seeing the redeveloped Cradle Mountain concept stimulus. *Low sample size, indicative only. Sample derived from a recontacted subsample of the total interstate sample.

44

More opportunity in shoulder seasons with Cradle Mtn redevelopment −March the most popular month for 19% of those intending to visit CM, Feb & Apr also popular Winter months are least popular, just 11% would visit in June-August

−Demonstrates a potential for an increase in demand for shoulder seasons

Seasonal demand

8 13

19 11

5 3 5

3 8 8 8 8

JanuaryFebruary

MarchAprilMay

JuneJuly

AugustSeptember

OctoberNovemberDecember

Preferred month of travel to redeveloped CM: Total intenders % very likely-certain to visit in next 2 years, n=148

Derived by BDA from CM Recontact Survey

Question: What month do you think you would most likely visit Cradle Mountain?

18 10

12 11

5 5

4 3

6 7

9 11

JanuaryFebruary

MarchAprilMayJuneJuly

AugustSeptember


Current seasonal demand for CM % of inbound & interstate holiday overnight and day trips to CM –

2YT September ‘15 (n=2,000) Derived by BDA from TVS

29 36

11 24

Summer (Dec-Feb)

Autumn (Mar-May)

Winter (Jun-Aug)

Spring (Sep-Nov)

39 28

11 22

Summer (Dec-Feb)

Autumn (Mar-May)

Winter (Jun-Aug)

Spring (Sep-Nov)

Monthly demand Monthly demand

Seasonal demand Seasonal demand

Note: Sample derived from a recontacted subsample of the total interstate sample.

45

Accommodation requirements

Indicative implications for accommodation requirements resulting

from interstate / inbound demand

−While specific supply requirements were not in the scope of this study, indicative

implications of 79k additional visitor nights can be assessed

−At 1.8 visitors per room 79k visitor nights provides 44k room nights per year or

~120 per day

−To meet this demand an additional 160 rooms would be required (at 75%

occupancy)

►Assuming: no impact on current accommodation and that all additional nights require roomed

accommodation

46

Key point summary (1)

A positive tourism environment

−National tourism demand growing with Tasmania very strong, gaining share of holidays ►Cradle Mountain now growing at least in line with total Tas, after losing share in recent years

Cradle Mountain today is an appealing destination but lacks the triggers

to unlock any substantial latent demand with existing experiences

−Considered a unique destination with high appeal driven by an interest in remote,

unique wilderness

−However, no shift in intention was evident after viewing the current offer

►For many, the experience is just not appealing enough vs other destinations, others have been before and not

interested in returning and some deem it unsuitable for their lifestage (older, families etc.)

Very strong response to the redevelopment concept

− Intention lifted substantially from Cradle Mtn today, and intended trips were longer

−The redevelopment was perceived to enhance the core experience & engagement with

the environment..

− ..while opening the destination to a wider pool of potential visitors and also providing

past visitors with a reason to return

47


All elements of redevelopment were well received but Cable Car was the

standout

− Cable Car had clearly highest level of raw appeal and intended engagement

►Highly appealing to a majority and the most preferred element for 65% (next was 7%) and > 80% would engage

►Provides the ability to observe the stunning natural environment in a comfortable, low impact way, added benefit of

good value

− Dove Lake shelter and pods were next most appealing, a peaceful means of enjoying the area

− Other elements also contribute to the attraction of the redevelopment

Significant incremental demand was evident from the redevelopment

− The redevelopment tested is estimated to provide 41k visitors, 79k nights and up to $22m in

incremental demand over and above the trend outlook

►This represents a ~30% increase in nights and > 40% increase in expenditure in the region

− For 79% of those intending to visit, the redevelopment had some influence on the decision travel

to Tasmania, 16% (7k) would be unlikely to travel to Tas if the redevelopment did not go ahead

− Conversion of day visitors to overnight would provide additional demand

►Incremental demand has been applied equally to current levels of day and overnight visitation

►Any conversion of current day visitors into overnight visitors would provide additional nights and expenditure into the

region

48

Intrastate findings

Recent demand trends

Pre-stimulus

−Past and future travel

Cradle Mountain today (post-stimulus)


−Barriers

Cradle Mountain tomorrow (post-stimulus)


−Details of intended Cradle Mountain trip

−New Cradle Mountain experiences

−Barriers

−Transport preference and pricing expectation

Incremental demand estimates

Summary and implications

49

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Sep 0

8

Sep 0

9

Sep 1

0

Sep 1

1

Sep 1

2

Sep 1

3

Sep 1

4

Sep 1

5

Tas intrastate travel demand

Strong growth for total

intrastate trips… − Total Tas demand up 10%

year on year Stronger than national growth of 6%

−Holiday demand weaker

− Tas intrastate holidays -5% Aus holidays up slightly 3%, but not

as strong as all purpose demand

Day trips growing for

Aus and Tas − Tas growth stronger than

national growth

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Sep 0

8

Sep 0

9

Sep 1

0

Sep 1

1

Sep 1

2

Sep 1

3

Sep 1

4

Sep 1

5

Aus intrastate demand Overnight (millions) - 12MMT


Total

Holidays

Tas intrastate demand Overnight (000's) - 12MMT


Total

Holidays

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Sep 0

8

Sep 0

9

Sep 1

0

Sep 1

1

Sep 1

2

Sep 1

3

Sep 1

4

Sep 1

5

020406080

100120140160180200

Sep 0

8

Sep 0

9

Sep 1

0

Sep 1

1

Sep 1

2

Sep 1

3

Sep 1

4

Sep 1

5

Aus day trip demand Daytrips (millions) - 12MMT


Total

Holidays

Tas day trip demand Daytrips (millions) - 12MMT


Total

Holidays

Note: Cradle Mountain region defined as Sheffield-Railton in the NVS

50

0

2

4

6

8

Sep 0

8

Sep 0

9

Sep 1

0

Sep 1

1

Sep 1

2

Sep 1

3

Sep 1

4

Sep 1

5

Cradle Mtn overnight intrastate demand

Recent lift in trips &

nights to Cradle Mt −However, CM outpaced by

strong Tas holiday demand Hence losing share of holiday trips

3.5% of intra Tas holiday trips include

a stopover in Cradle Mt…

… down from 5% in ’10

020406080

100120140160

Sep 0

8

Sep 0

9

Sep 1

0

Sep 1

1

Sep 1

2

Sep 1

3

Sep 1

4

Sep 1

5

Cradle Mt intrastate nights Overnight trips (000's) - 24MMA


Cradle Mt % of Tas intrastate nights Share of intrastate overnight trips (%)


Total

Holidays

Total

Holidays


Day trip demand refers to those who visited and stopped at Cradle Mt but did not stay overnight.

0

2

4

6

8

Sep 0

8

Sep 0

9

Sep 1

0

Sep 1

1

Sep 1

2

Sep 1

3

Sep 1

4

Sep 1

5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Sep 0

8

Sep 0

9

Sep 1

0

Sep 1

1

Sep 1

2

Sep 1

3

Sep 1

4

Sep 1

5

Cradle Mt intrastate trips Overnight trips (000's) - 24MMA


Cradle Mt % of Tas intrastate trips Share of intrastate overnight trips (%)


Total

Holidays

Total

Holidays

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Sep 0

8

Sep 0

9

Sep 1

0

Sep 1

1

Sep 1

2

Sep 1

3

Sep 1

4

Sep 1

5

Average nights per trip in Cradle Mt Average no. nights per trip - 24MMA


Total

Holidays

51

Cradle Mountain day trip demand

Daytrips account for >70% of all

intrastate trips to Cradle Mt − Total daytrips to Cradle Mt lifting over the

past year Growth of 14% year on year

Similar trend for holiday daytrips

40

50

60

70

80

90

Sep 0

8

Sep 0

9

Sep 1

0

Sep 1

1

Sep 1

2

Sep 1

3

Sep 1

4

Sep 1

5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Sep 0

8

Sep 0

9

Sep 1

0

Sep 1

1

Sep 1

2

Sep 1

3

Sep 1

4

Sep 1

5

Cradle Mountain intrastate day trips Daytrips (000's) - 24MMA


Day trip share of total Cradle Mt intrastate trips Share of total intrastate trips: overnight trips & daytrips (%)


Total

Holidays

Total

Holidays


Day trip demand refers to those who visited and stopped at Cradle Mt but did not stay overnight.

52

Past & future travel (Pre-stimulus)

73

72

33

Overnight within own state

Travelled to another state

Travelled overseas

14

17

42

14

9

3

Day trip

1

2

3

4

5+

Leisure travel over the last 12 months (%)

Likelihood of visiting Cradle Mtn

region in the next 2 years (%)

# nights would spend in Cradle Mtn % Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs

Most travel around Aus − >70% travelled within Aus for

leisure in past year 1/3 travelled overseas

Vic top considered interstate dest'n

−High Cradle Mtn visitation &

intention Over ¾ have ever visited

Nearly ½ intend to visit within 2 years

−Short trips most likely 2 nights easily most preferred, 1 night

and also popular

5

14

27

28

20

7

Not at all likely

Not likely

Likely

Very likely

Certain

Not sure

79

21

Yes

No

Ever visited the Cradle Mountain

region in Tasmania (%)

64

49

45

33

28

24

19

Vic

Qld

NSW

SA

WA

NT

ACT

Others states considering travelling

to for leisure in the next 2 years (%)


Questions: Which of the following have you done in the last year? Which of the following

states would you consider travelling to for leisure in the next 2 years? Have you ever visited

the Cradle Mountain region in Tasmania?


in the next two years? How many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle

Mountain region in Tasmania?

53

Stimulus – Cradle Mountain today

54

Base appeal of Today's Cradle Mtn

~½ had high awareness

of Cradle Mtn experience − 35% moderate awareness

CM considered very

appealing & unique −After viewing stimulus on the

CM experience… 80% considered it appealing (41% very

appealing)

92% rated the experience unique (very

unique for 30%)

3

6

11

39

41

Very unappealing

Somewhat unappealing

Neither/ not sure

Somewhat appealing

Very appealing

Appeal of the Cradle Mountain

experience (%)

1

1

6

62

30

Not at all unique

Not very unique

Neither/ not sure

Somewhat unique

Very unique

Uniqueness of the Cradle Mountain

experience (%)

2

16

35

30

17

No awareness

Low awareness

Moderate awareness

High awareness

Very high awareness

Previous awareness of the Cradle

Mountain experiences (%)


Questions: Before reading this information, how aware were you of the depth and range of

the Cradle Mountain experience? How appealing is the Cradle Mountain experience?


say the Cradle Mountain experience is?

55

Stimulus' impact on intention

Stimulus had some impact on

intention − 7% more intend to visit (very likely / certain)

− Trips of 2 nights again most popular Increase in intended 3 night trips

Likelihood of visiting Cradle Mtn in the next 2

years, after seeing stimulus (%)

11

15

39

20

11

4

Day trip

1

2

3

4

5+

# of nights would spend in Cradle Mtn % now Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs

2

11

25

32

23

6

Not at all likely

Not likely

Likely

Very likely

Certain

Not sure


Questions: Having seen this information, how likely are you to visit Cradle Mountain in the

next two years? How many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain

region?

Likelihood of visiting CM

in next 2 years (%)

-14

-11

-5

-2

28

32

20

23

Pre Stimulus


48

55


56

Barriers to visiting today's Cradle Mtn

Over ½ of those not intending to visit

Cradle Mtn prefer other places −A high proportion (over 40%) have already

been and don't want to return A further 21% are interested, just not at the moment

Cost and lack of interest stop others from planning a visit

'Other' reasons include the expense and having no one to

travel with

52

41

21

10

10

7

7

7

3

3

17

Prefer to travel to other places

Been before and not interested in returning

Would like to go, just not right now

Just not interested






Not enough things to do / activities I like

Other

Reasons why are you unlikely to visit Cradle Mountain,

after seeing stimulus % now Not at all - Not likely to visit in next 2 years, n=29*


Questions: Which of the following are reasons why are you unlikely to visit Cradle

Mountain? (choose as many as apply)

*Low sample size. Indicative only.

57

− A desire to show CM to friends / relatives

►I have a cousin from UK coming to stay and I would want

to show him and his wife Cradle Mountain

− Close proximity increases attraction

► I live close by in Launceston so it is within easy access

►It is beautiful, affordable and close

Not intending to visit CM − Already been, would prefer to go somewhere new

►Been before, nothing new or interesting to go back for

►I live quite near Cradle Mt and have seen it enough, so

would prefer to travel to other parts of Tasmania first

►I would prefer to visit places I have not been to

− A few put off by expense and development

►Too developed, expensive

− However, many would still take visitors there

►The only reason I'd go back again would be to show

friends around

►

Wilderness, peace & proximity inspire many to visit and return

Intending to visit CM − Positive past experiences inspire many to return

►I love this place. Have been twice before and will

definitely be going again

►We travel to Cradle Mountain every winter for 2 nights

− Enjoy the wilderness and mountain scenery

►Favourite place to go, like the wilderness experience

►Good family experience, especially for the youngsters to

get more acquainted with nature and their environment

►See the snow and take the kiddies on an adventure

►To smell the mountain air and enjoy the scenery

►It is pristine wilderness and has easy walks

►Love the many and varied walks one can do. The fact that

it may snow at any time, even in summer makes it a

fascinating area. Wildlife is a unique attraction.

− A peaceful escape

►I love the peace and tranquillity that radiates there

►It is a magical place, serene and just beautiful

CM today intention – Qualitative summary

Question: Please briefly explain why you are likely / not likely to visit Cradle Mountain in the

next 2 years

58

Stimulus – Cradle Mountain tomorrow

Note: abbreviated stimulus shown

59

-14

-11

-7

-5

-2

-4

28

32

36

20

23

27

Pre Stimulus



Redevelopment lifts

Cradle Mtn intention

further −An extra 8% very likely or

certain to visit after seeing

redevelopment stimulus 'Very likely' and 'certain' both gain

~4% after presentation of

redevelopment stimulus

Shift summary: Intention to visit Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey


in the next two years? Having seen this information, how likely are you to visit Cradle

Mountain in the next two years?



48

55

63

Likelihood of visiting Cradle Mountain in next 2 years (%)


60

Redeveloped CM also considered unique − Those rating CM 'very unique' rises from 30% to 40%

Improvements impact on likelihood of visiting − 2/3 more likely to visit because of the redevelopment

−With over 60% now intending a visit within 2 years Longer 3 night trips continue to increase in popularity, though 2 nights still

chosen by over 1/3 and most common

Impact of CM redevelopment

Uniqueness of the redeveloped

Cradle Mountain (%)

1

4

12

43

40

Not at all unique

Not very unique

Neither / not sure

Somewhatunique

Very unique

10

13

35

25

12

5

Day trip

1

2

3

4

5+

Likelihood of visiting the redeveloped

Cradle Mountain in the next 2 years (%)

# of nights would spend in redeveloped

CM region % Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs

4

7

19

36

27

8

Not at all likely

Not likely

Likely

Very likely

Certain

Not sure

Redevelopment impact on likelihood

of visiting the Cradle Mountain (%)

3

4

27

41

26

Much less likely

Less likely

Neither more orless likely

More likely

Much more likely



say redeveloped Cradle Mountain region is? Given the redevelopment of the visitor

experience at Cradle Mountain, would you be more or less likely to visit Cradle Mountain?


likely would you be to visit Cradle Mountain in the next two years? Given the redevelopment,

how many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain region?

61

− Supporting Tas economy

►I live in Tasmania and I like to support all good development

►A complete new experience for all, and of course jobs

►Anything revamped in Tasmania must be visited by

Tasmanians then shouted out to the world if it's fantastic.

Tourism is all we have now

− A reason to return

►I think it is needed as I have been there many times. It would

be something new to enjoy

Not intending to visit redevelopment − Concerns the natural beauty will be spoilt

►The total opposite experience to what I want at Cradle. It is

already too commercial & there are enough adventure & flight

experiences for those who can't be bothered to go for a walk

►I go there to enjoy the natural beauty, not to be sucked into

lavish man made surroundings which I would imagine you will

be charging and arm and a leg to see

− May be too expensive for Tas residents

►There is little incentive for locals i.e. Tasmanians to stay at

such expensive resorts in their own State. If locals were given

discounted rates it may encourage more locals to visit

Enhances appeal, comfort & uniqueness while supporting Tas

Intending to visit redeveloped CM − Going anyway but redevelopment enhances appeal

►The revamp only adds to the experience, already had

plans to go to CM so it would be given even higher priority

►An enhanced experience - as long as the skyrail is done

sympathetically to the surroundings

►It's such a special place that I would go there even if the

redevelopment didn't happen

− Explore natural beauty with increased comfort

►Makes the whole experience much easier to see and

includes all the creature comforts that I need

►Very scenic and relaxing with adventure and warmth

►It just looks so relaxing, there's plenty to do & it just looks

like such a beautiful place. I really want to go there now!

►All that you are doing will allow a lot more people to see

the real beauty of the region

− A unique experience

►What a unique experience. I have travelled to Switzerland

and used their skyrail but this Cradle Mt. development

would be as good if not better

►Completely different, there is nothing in Tasmania like it

Redeveloped CM intention: Qual. summary

Question: Please briefly explain why you are likely / not likely to visit the redeveloped Cradle

Mountain region

62

Redeveloped Cradle Mtn Experiences

Overall, the Cradle Mountain redevelopment has very high appeal: ‘very appealing' to ~1/2 and appealing to 85%. The Cable Car was rated

'very appealing' by the most respondents with 55% vs 44% for the Dove Lake Viewing Shelter in 2nd place, though similar overall appeal.

Visitor centre and Alpine Village events least appealing overall but still appeal to over 70%.

Appeal of redeveloped Cradle Mountain experiences (%)


Questions: How appealing are each of the following newly developed experiences?

-4

-1

-5

-5

-4

-5

-4

-2

-5

-6

-8

-4

-6

-5

-5

-4

-6

-6

36

24

35

36

40

39

49

42

42

49

55

44

36

36

34

34

33

30

Overall redevelopment

Cable Car


Pod Shelters along the Dove Lake

Alpine Village Guest Lounge Bar

The Cradle Feast

Visitor Centre Cafe


Alpine Village Courtyard Events


63

Cradle Mtn Experience Appeal

Cable Car stands out as

clear top experience −Most appealing to 57% of

those who intend to visit Dove Lake Viewing Shelter and

Cradle Feast top for nearly 10%

−¼ found none of the options

least appealing The Visitor Centre was voted least

appealing by the most respondents…

…though the Cable Car & guest

lounge received a similar response

26

12

11

11

10

10

9

6

3

None of the above


Cable Car


Events at the Alpine Village

The Cradle Feast

Pod Shelters along DoveLake Circuit Walk

Visitor Centre Cafe


57

9

9

6

5

5

5

4

0

Cable Car


The Cradle Feast


Pod Shelters along DoveLake Circuit Walk


Visitor Centre Cafe


None of the above


Least appealing experience of the


n=172

Most appealing experience of the


n=172

Questions: Which of the following newly developed experiences do you find the most

appealing? Which of the following newly developed experiences do you find the least

appealing?

64

The Cable Car would be used

by 76%... −…of those intending to visit CM The Dove Lake Viewing Shelter would also be

highly utilised, by 63%

The majority of visitors would engage with the


Events at the Alpine Village lowest, though still

41%


Experiences would engage in, if visited Cradle Mountain % of those Likely-Certain to visit the redeveloped CM, n=172

76

63

59

49

49

48

47

41

2

Cable Car




The Cradle Feast


Guest Lounge Bar at the AlpineVillage


Other



experiences would you engage in?

65

Viewing window is the most

#1 Dove Lake element −With 56% finding it most appealing Warm natural shelters are the next most

appealing

−Booking activities & park info most

appealing Visitor Centre elements Most appealing for 44-48% of those who

would use the reimagined Visitor Centre


56

45

39

32

32

26

23

20

19

12

1

Large viewing window overlooking Dove Lake

Heated, low impact pod shelters around Dove Lake

Warm viewing shelter crafted from natural materials

Cafe/kiosk at the Dove Lake Viewing Shelter

Picnic facilities at Dove Lake

Information about the local flora, fauna and history

Low impact space for contemplation

Children's area staffed by trained park rangers

One-on-one park ranger engagement

Dove Lake arrival terminal

None of the above

Most appealing elements of the new Dove Lake experience % that would engage in Dove Lake experiences if they visited Cradle Mountain, n=124

48

44

37

35

2

Booking activities such as horse riding, kayaking, quad biketours, canyoning, cycle hire and guided walks

National Park information

Outdoor equipment, local handicrafts and souvenir space

Regional interpretation

None of the above

Most appealing elements of the reimagined Visitor Centre % that would use the Visitor Centre if they visited Cradle Mountain, n=82


Experiences would engage in, if visited CM % of those Likely-Certain to visit the redeveloped CM, n=172

76

63

59

49

49

48

47

41

Cable Car




The Cradle Feast


Guest Lounge Bar



experiences would you engage in? Which of the following elements of the new Dove Lake

mountain experience do you find most appealing? Please select as many as apply.

Questions: Which of the following elements of the reimagined Visitor Centre do you find

most appealing? Please select as many as apply.

66

− Favourable comparisons to NZ, Cairns

►Have experienced similar in N.Z. and it was amazing

►The Skyrail in Cairns was a fantastic ride over the rain

forests and would fit perfectly at Cradle Mountain

− Allows everyone to explore nature

►Would give young & old a chance to see our wilderness

►It's family-oriented and not expensive

− Some believe it is environmentally conscious…

►A nice way to view the wilderness without scarring it

►Without stuffing up the local flora and fauna, I get to see

some magnificent scenery

− …though others are concerned about the impact

on Cradle Mountain's natural beauty

►I do not want a suspension gondola moving overhead

and messing about with the wilderness of the park

►People visit for the isolation and natural beauty. This

would spoil the amazing photos people travel there to take

►It would detract from the natural environment and make

the experience too touristy

►Ugly, obtrusive, invasive

− Fear of heights limits appeal for some

► I hate heights and can't cope with travel on these

Cable Car

− An exciting and unique adventure

►It all looks wonderful, but the skyrail would be very

exciting. The view from it would be incredible.

►Exciting way to see the wilderness area in comfort

►Fantastic idea. Never seen it done in Tassie

►Unique panoramic adventure & sightseeing opportunity

− Affordable way to experience more of the Cradle

Mountain wilderness

►It would be a whole new way of experiencing Tassie's

great Cradle Mountain and surrounds

►Getting a birds eye view but also being able to walk as

well, to be able to see it all

►A perfect way to see this beautiful lake. Fantastic idea!

►A fantastic concept which would be an added bonus for

visitors. Getting a birds eye view for a moderate price.

►It looks like the best value for money. Everything else

looks like it will be overpriced




-1 -8 24 55 Appeal


67


− Wonderful views and shelter from changeable

weather

►It is a great idea because the weather can be very

changeable and somewhat dangerous at times

►It looks so nice to be in the shelters during winter time, if it

was snowing all around

►They are different, there’s nothing else like it in Tas.

Wonderful views

− Appeals to those who enjoy walking/hiking

►I love going for walks

►These look amazing - these would be even better if you

could stay overnight in one

►They are essential for walkers

− Some concerns about impact on surroundings and

whether they are necessary

►I think it might ruin the natural setting

►It seems a bit complicated and not necessary



− Modern, well-designed structure from which to view

the lake's natural beauty

►I think it would be wonderful to go there and just

experience the lake in all it's beauty in this way

►It looks so beautiful and you look like you're on the water

►Very modern and lovely, to me it looks as if I would get the

best view there and it's very appealing to the eye

►A beautifully designed structure, fits the Park's character

►Seeing the lake from a purpose designed shelter – great!

− More people would gain access to the environment

►Because it would make a special place more accessible

− Though some believe it detracts from environment

►It feels like it would detract or conflict with the natural-ness

and beauty of the lake with it's sleek, modern design.

►The least amount of man made structures around the

NATIONAL PARK, the better



-5 -4 35 44 Appeal -5 -6 36 36 Appeal


68

The Cradle Feast

− Gourmet dining featuring Tasmanian produce

►Sounds gourmet - love to indulge in wine and fine dining

►You get to taste the fabulous Tasmanian food,

showcasing produce from the local area

►Lovely Tasmanian food and wine

− A unique offer that would add to the natural

experiences, family friendly too

►It's a most exiting concept that will add to the natural

beauty a great draw card for Tasmania

►Most diverse and interesting offering

►It sounds like a great family experience

− But some more interested in wilderness activities

and peace than sharing a meal

►More interested in activities than eating expensive food

►When I go to the wilderness I go for the peace as much

as the beauty. This does not promise to be peaceful

Guest Lounge Bar

− Relax and unwind after day of walking or in

cold weather

►It's nice to unwind with a cold drink after a long quiet

walk in the wilderness

►It looks comfortable and cool so you can sit back

and relax with a couple of mate and chill

►If it's cold you can stay warm and have a nice meal

►Great place to relax with a drink after a busy day

►To be able to get high quality food and drink would

be great after a day of walking

− Though others prefer outdoor / family activities

►Prefer to be out and about doing things

►Looks great but not as family-focused, not outdoors




-4 -5 40 36 Appeal -5 -5 39 34 Appeal


69

Reimagined Visitor

Centre

− Somewhere to get information and

begin your experience

►It is the hub of where the true

amazing experience starts and finishes

►Shows you things to do at Cradle Mtn

− Modern aesthetic makes an

impression

►It's cool looking

►It looked amazing

− Though less interesting than other

aspects of the redevelopment

►There is so much to see up there,

most of it is outside the centre

►A little boring compared to the other

changes


− Inviting place to try produce, drink

coffee and rest

►It would be great to try some fresh

Tasmanian produce at this cafe to

showcase our produce

►Great coffee and a place to rest

►It has a nice atmosphere and a

friendly feel

►It looks very inviting

►Seems like a very good idea for the

region

− Some feel it is 'just a café'

►It's just a cafe and would probably be

expensive





− Entertaining end to day & chance

to interact with other visitors

►Sounds like a nice entertaining way

to finish a beautiful day outdoors

►A chance to interact with other

people from interstate & overseas

►It offers the opportunity to partake in

good times with good fare

− Alternative option for those who

don’t like walking

►I am not into bushwalking or anything

too strenuous

− But natural attractions more

appealing to some

►I am attracted more by the natural

attractions the area offers

-4 -4 49 34 Appeal -2 -6 42 33 Appeal -5 -6 42 30 Appeal


70

Recommendation of redevelopment

Very strong intended advocacy for

redeveloped Cradle Mountain − 85% of those intending to visit very likely or

certain to recommend to interstate visitors Only 1% are unlikely to recommend the experience

Recommend to interstate visitors % of those Likely-Certain to visit the redeveloped CM, n=172

0

1

12

44

41

2

Not at all likely

Not likely

Likely

Very likely

Certain

Not sure


likely would you be to recommend this experience to friends or relatives visiting from

interstate?


71

Barriers to visiting Cradle Mountain

Not being interested and preferring

other places the major barriers… −…for those not intending to visit the

redeveloped Cradle Mtn experience (27%)

− ‘Prefer other places’ and ‘Been before’ much

lower for redeveloped CM than CM today 'Other' reasons include spoiling the natural beauty with

manmade structures and making CM too 'touristy'

Reasons why unlikely to visit redeveloped Cradle

Mountain region % now Not at all/Not likely to visit in next 2 yrs, n=22*

27

27

23

18

14

9

9

9

5

5

27

I'm just not interested

There are other places I'd prefer to travel to


I have been to Cradle Mountain before and Iam not interested in returning



I do not see the value in this holidayexperience

I don't know enough about it



Other


Questions: Which of the following are reasons why are you unlikely to visit the redeveloped

Cradle Mountain region? (choose as many as apply)


72

Transport preference & pricing

Cable Car preferred form of

transport for the majority… − 76% intend to use the Cable Car

between the Visitor Centre and Dove

Lake Walking also popular, 42% would complete some of

the journey on foot

…and great value for money − 64% find the Cable Car cheaper than

they expected

Transport would use to travel between the Visitor

Centre & Dove Lake % of those Likely-Certain to visit the redeveloped CM, n=172

76

42

15

1

Valley Cable Car

Walk to/from Dove Lake

Cycle to/from Dove Lake

None of the above

Ticket pricing of Cable Car experience % of those Likely-Certain to visit the redeveloped CM, n=172

1

3

33

51

13

Much more than expected

More than expected

What I expected

Cheaper than expected

Much cheaper than I expected


Questions: If you were to visit Cradle Mountain, which of the following transport options

would you use to travel between the Visitor Centre and Dove Lake? If you would like to catch

the Valley Skyrail to Dove Lake and walk the return trip, please select both options.

Questions: The return trip Valley Skyrail experience will cost $10 for an adult and $30 for a

family. Are these ticket prices more or less than you would have expected?

73

Shift summary: Duration of stay

Length of intended trip greater for

redeveloped CM experience −Average nights increase to 2.7 Compared to 2.4 pre-stimulus

− Initially 2-night trips dominated… …with day trips & 1 night stays also popular

−After redevelopment stimulus… …day trips & 1-2 night trips declined, 3-4 night trips rose


Post 'Today' Stimulus (% Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs)

11

15

39

20

11

4

Day trip

1

2

3

4

5+

# of nights would spend at Cradle Mtn region: Post

'Tomorrow' Stimulus (% Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs)

10

13

35

25

12

5

Day trip

1

2

3

4

5+


Pre-Stimulus (% Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs)

14

17

42

14

9

3

Day trip

1

2

3

4

5+

Average # of nights would stay at Cradle Mountain

Pre Stimulus



2.4

2.5

2.7


Questions: How many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain region? Questions: Given the redevelopment of the visitor experience at Cradle Mountain, how

many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain region?

74

Shift summary: Been to CM vs Not

Greater shift in intention for new

visitors − From same base, those who haven't been

are more likely to visit with redevelopment…

−…and intend to stay slightly longer

− Though positive shift also observed with

those who have been before

Likelihood of visiting CM in next 2 years (%) n=43*

51

56

72

Pre Stimulus



Avg # of nights would stay at CM n=43*

Pre Stimulus



2.6

2.5

2.7

Have visited Cradle Mountain Before Have never been to Cradle Mountain


48

56

61

Pre Stimulus




Pre Stimulus



2.3

2.5

2.6



in the next two years? Given the redevelopment of the visitor experience at Cradle Mountain,

how likely would you be to visit Cradle Mountain in the next two years?

Questions: How many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain region?

Given the redevelopment of the visitor experience at Cradle Mountain, how many nights do

you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain region?


Certain Not at all Very Likely Not likely Certain Not at all Very Likely Not likely

-14

-12

-7

-5

-3

-4

28

31

34

20

25

27

-14

-12

-7

-2

0

-2

28

37

44

23

19

28

75

New demand profile

New demand = those who

became intenders − After seeing the redevelopment

− New demand predominantly

from young workers and retirees 18-34 and 65+ age groups

− Compared to total intenders… More likely to live with partner or parents

Have a household income under $80k

21

24

7

10

14

24

14

20

17

17

16

15

18-24 years

25-34 years

35-44 years

45-54 years

55-64 years

65+ years

31

31

31

7

0

0

39

25

21

2

9

3

Work full time

Work part time

Retired

Looking for work

Home duties

Other

34

21

14

10

7

7

3

3

28

20

24

5

7

5

7

4

Partner

Alone

Partner & dependents

With parents

Partner & adult children

Other relatives

Flatmates

Other

26

22

26

7

7

4

7

0

0

23

20

11

12

8

5

7

11

2

Less than $40k

$40k-$60k

$60k-$80k

$80k-$100k

$100k-$125k

$125k to $150

$150k to $200k

$200k to $250k

$250k or more

Age (%) Employment situation (%)

Household income (%) Household situation (%)

*NB: New demand = Not intending to visit current CM experience in next 2 years but 'Very

likely' – 'Certain' under redevelopment. Intenders = 'Very likely' – 'Certain' to visit

redeveloped CM.


45

55

46

54

Male

Female

Gender (%)

New demand (n=29*) Total Intenders (n=132)


76

Assessing incremental demand

Core assumptions for the intrastate incremental demand forecast

− All potential visitors are assumed to be aware of the redeveloped Cradle Mountain

− All purposes of visitor are assumed to convert at the rate measured in the research

►All international demand is assumed to convert at the rate measured for Interstate respondents

− The results reflect visitors who live in Tasmania

− Excluding the impact of the redevelopment, the region and Tasmania are assumed to hold share of

national tourism demand (i.e. the Trend outlook)

− The tested impact is assumed to reflect an opening date of January 2018 and tested demand is

assumed to be fully realised by the YT Dec 2018

− The current mix of day and overnight visitors to the region is applied into the future

►Hence, any conversion of day visitors into overnight visitors would be additional nights over and above the following estimates

− Base expenditure in Cradle Mountain is estimated as follows:

►For overnight visitors to the region, average nightly accommodation expenditure in Tas by Cradle Mt visitors is applied to all

nights spent in Cradle Mountain 93% of average daily ‘other’ expenditure in Tas by Cradle Mt visitors (excluding transport)*

►This same proportion of average spend per day has also been applied to the region for all day trips to Cradle Mountain

►Expenditure per night / day is assumed to grow in line with inflation forecasts

− Incremental expenditure scenarios are then applied:

►Scenario 1: Cable Car only. 76% would engage in Cable Car. At $10 per person = incremental $7.60 per person

►Scenario 2: Cable Car + additional F&B. 81% would engage with at least one of the visitors café, lounge bar, village events or

Cradle Feast. At an assumed additional expenditure of $10 per person = incremental $8.10 per person (+$7.60 for Cable Car)

*87% of overnight visitors to Cradle Mt have a single stopover on their trip. These visitors are assumed to spend 100%

of their daily ‘other’ expenditure in Cradle Mt. The remaining 13% are assumed to spend 50% of their daily ‘other’

expenditure in Cradle Mt. Hence, overall 93% of daily ‘other’ expenditure is spent in Cradle Mt

77

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Dec 0

8

Dec 0

9

Dec 1

0

Dec 1

1

Dec 1

2

Dec 1

3

Dec 1

4

Dec 1

5

Dec 1

6

Dec 1

7

Dec 1

8

Dec 1

9

Dec 2

0

Incremental visitor

demand is evident −Redevelopment estimated to




− 14% additional demand


Total visitors to Cradle Mountain Intrastate (overnight and day visitors) – All purposes of trip (000’s) - 24MMA

Derived by BDA from BDA AUSMO / NVS

Trend outlook

Projected demand

with redevelopment





Day visitors 90.3k 102.8k 12.5k

Note: Cradle Mountain region defined as Sheffield-Railton in the NVS.

78

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Dec 0

8

Dec 0

9

Dec 1

0

Dec 1

1

Dec 1

2

Dec 1

3

Dec 1

4

Dec 1

5

Dec 1

6

Dec 1

7

Dec 1

8

Dec 1

9

Dec 2

0

23k more nights in CM

from redevelopment − 20% more nights than would


−Via more visitors and

increased length of stay Resulting from the redevelopment


Total nights at Cradle Mountain Intrastate (overnight and day visitors) – All purposes of trip (000’s) - 24MMA


Trend outlook

Projected demand

with redevelopment





79

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Dec 0

8

Dec 0

9

Dec 1

0

Dec 1

1

Dec 1

2

Dec 1

3

Dec 1

4

Dec 1

5

Dec 1

6

Dec 1

7

Dec 1

8

Dec 1

9

Dec 2

0

Th

ou

sa

nd

s




− Lift in regional expenditure An additional $5.6m estimated in

2018 resulting from the

redevelopment

Most from overnight visitors




& additional F&B spend

−Greater lift in regional spend An additional $7.5m estimated in


redevelopment


Total expenditure at Cradle Mountain Intrastate (overnight and day visitors) – All purposes of trip ($millions) - 24MMA


Trend outlook


with redevelopment + Cable

Car expenditure


outlook

Projected with

redevelopment

(scenario 1)

Incremental

demand

(scenario 1)

Projected with

redevelopment

(scenario 2)

Incremental

demand

(scenario 2)


Spend by

overnight visitors $15.7m $19.9m $4.2m $21m $5.3m

Spend by day

visitors $4.2m $5.5m $1.4m $6.4m $2.2m



and F&B expenditure


80

Redevelopment

provides an additional: − 18k visitors and 23k nights to

the Cradle Mountain region

−Scenario 1 = $5.6m in





Additional

Trips to CM

Additional

Nights in CM

Additional

expenditure in

CM

(scenario 1)

Additional

expenditure in

CM

(scenario 2)

Total visitors 17.8k 22.9k $5.6m $7.5m

Overnight

visitors 5.4k 22.9k $4.2m $5.3m

Day visitors 12.5k n/a $1.4m $2.2m




81

Cable Car vs Shuttle Bus

Strong preference for Cable

Car over shuttle bus −¾ prefer the Cable Car… …and over 50% find the redeveloped Cradle

Mtn less appealing without it

A further 42% would be less likely to visit if

they had to use the shuttle bus instead

Cable Car vs Shuttle Bus: Option preferred as

part of the CM redevelopment (%)

75

12

13

Cable Car

Shuttle bus

Neither / not sure

Impact on likelihood of visiting Cradle Mountain redeveloped if Shuttle

Bus replaced the Cable Car (%)

18

24

40

7

5

6

Much less likely to go if shuttle bus replaced cable car

Less likely to go if shuttle bus replaced cable car

Neither more or less likely

More likely to go if shuttle bus replaced cable car

Much more likely to go if shuttle bus replaced cable car

Not sure

Impact on view of the Cradle Mountain redevelopment if Shuttle Bus

replaced the Cable Car (%)

27

25

28

9

8

4

Much less appealing if shuttle bus replaced cable car

Less appealing if shuttle bus replaced cable car

Neither more or less appealing

More appealing if shuttle bus replaced cable car

Much more appealing if shuttle bus replaced cable car

Not sure


Questions: Which of these options would you prefer? If the Valley Skyrail was replaced with

a shuttle bus service, how would this change your view of the redeveloped CM region?

Questions: If the Valley Skyrail was replaced with a shuttle bus service, would you be more

or less likely to visit the redeveloped Cradle Mountain region?

Information: There is the potential for the Valley Skyrail not to be part of

the Cradle Mountain redevelopment. The Valley Skyrail could instead be

replaced with the existing shuttle bus service. The shuttle bus would

operate as it does today, travelling between the Visitor Centre and a

parking area and basic shelter near Dove Lake. The price of the shuttle

service would be the same as the Valley Skyrail ($10 adult return, $30

return for a family) and would operate when weather permits, whereas

the Valley Skyrail would operate year round in all weather conditions.

82

Intention if Cable Car was replaced

New demand driven

predominantly by Cable Car −Replacing the Cable Car with a

shuttle bus...

−…risks 83% of incremental

demand

−With only 17% now 'very likely' or

'certain' to visit 34% shift back to ‘likely’, 49% do not intend

or are unsure

Likelihood of visiting Cradle Mountain redeveloped in the

next 2 years, for those unlikely to visit CM today % of New Demand, n=29*

0

0

0

79

21

0

Not at all likely

Not likely

Likely

Very likely

Certain

Not sure

Likelihood of visiting Cradle Mountain redeveloped in the

next 2 years if Shuttle Bus replaced the Cable Car % of New Demand, n=29*

14

21

34

10

7

14

Not at all likely

Not likely

Likely

Very likely

Certain

Not sure


Questions: If the Valley Skyrail was replaced with a shuttle bus service, how likely would

you be to visit Cradle Mountain in the next two years? Questions: Given the redevelopment of the visitor experience at Cradle Mountain, how



New demand = New Demand respondents were not intending to visit

the current Cradle Mountain experience in next 2 years but became

‘very likely’ – ‘certain’ after seeing the redeveloped Cradle Mountain

concept stimulus.

83

− Low environmental impact

►Buses get stuck in snow, leave toxic fumes

►Less environmental impact

− Very affordable

►Skyrail is something different, at $10 I would do it for sure

►I have seen it all at foot & bus level. The sky rail is new,

trendy and when costs are taken in would cost similar

Prefer shuttle bus − Less impact on the landscape & environment

►The Shuttle bus already operates and is very popular. The

skyrail would have a massive impact on the environment

and is a permanent fixture, whereas the shuttle buses can

leave when not in use or if no longer profitable, unlike

massive towers etc that would be required to build a skyrail

►Fits with the wilderness image, it's not as intrusive

►It won't spoil the landscape

►I may use the skyrail if it's built but would prefer it was left

pristine, as is

− Fear of heights motivates some to choose shuttle

►I'm not at all keen on heights so wouldn't go on a sky rail

Prefer Cable Car − Cable Car is unique & exciting versus a bus ride

►A bus is a bus whereas a skyrail is a unique experience

►Everyone has been on a bus. Nothing exciting. Skyrail,

can't wait!

►Bring on the magical Skyrail. Such a wonderful idea.

►Much more comfortable and fun way of travelling

− Novel perspective and opens up new areas

►Offers a unique perspective on the region, whereas the

bus is more-or-less the same as walking, just faster

►You go over the lake, its very scenic and much cooler

►Aerial views are better as you can see more

►It would enable access to areas not available by bus

− The highlight of the redevelopment plans

►Skyrail sounds like the best part of the redevelopment

and one of the main reasons I would want to visit again

►It is one of the highlights and would be great for the kids

− All weather, all year round and safer too

►Wouldn't result in me being disappointed should the

weather turn bad and result in cancellation of the bus

►Exceptional experience year round and safer in winter

Cable Car vs Shuttle bus – Qualitative

summary Unique & exciting, the all-weather Cable Car is the highlight

Questions: Please briefly explain why you would prefer the Skyrail/Shuttle bus. Please

briefly explain why you would be more likely/less likely to go if shuttle bus replaced Valley

Skyrail.

84

Cable Car vital to appeal

of CM redevelopment − 86% of intenders rate

importance 7 or above Mean score is 8.2

37% consider it 9-10

−Similar importance with New

Demand Very few consider the Cable Car

unimportant to the redevelopment

Cable Car: Importance to redevelopment Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey

Questions: How important is the Valley Skyrail to the overall appeal of the redeveloped

Cradle Mountain experience?


Importance of Cable Car to appeal of

redeveloped Cradle Mountain % of respondents very likely-certain to visit in the next 2 years, n=132, % of New Demand, n=29*

AVERAGE 8.1/10 AVERAGE 8.1/10

3

3

8

39

47

1-2

3-4

5-6

7-8

9-10

0

3

17

34

45

1-2

3-4

5-6

7-8

9-10

New demand* Total intenders

10 = Very

important

1 = Very

unimportant

85

Additional 17.8k intrastate trips are forecast as a result of the development −Of those, 5.4k are overnight trips and 12.5k are daytrips

− For 24% of the New Demand, the Cradle trip would replace an inter/OS trip

Hence there are 4.3k incremental trips for Tasmania

Incremental demand for Tasmania

Visitors to Cradle Mountain Intrastate overnight and day visitors (000’s) - 24MMA


17.8k incremental

visitors to Cradle Mt (12.5k day & 5.4 overnight)

Replacement of overseas or interstate trip % of New Demand, n=29*


3

21

76

Replace a planned overseastrip

Replace a planned interstatetrip

Not replace either a plannedoverseas or interstate trip

4.3k incremental

visitors for

Tasmania

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Dec 0

8

Dec 0

9

Dec 1

0

Dec 1

1

Dec 1

2

Dec 1

3

Dec 1

4

Dec 1

5

Dec 1

6

Dec 1

7

Dec 1

8

Dec 1

9

Dec 2

0

Questions: Would this trip to Cradle Mountain in the next two years...



– ‘certain’ after seeing the redeveloped Cradle Mountain concept stimulus.

Note: Cradle Mountain region defined as Sheffield-Railton in the NVS. Incremental intrastate

visitors, all of whom would be replacing a planned interstate or overseas trip, are assumed to be

overnight visitors to Cradle Mountain.

86

March the most popular month for 16% of those intending to visit Cradle Mt − June, August, February & April also popular months, each with over 10% preference End of the year is least preferred

−Demonstrates some potential increase in demand for shoulder seasons and winter

Seasonal demand

5 10

16 10

8 14

8 11

6 5 6

2

JanuaryFebruary

MarchAprilMay

JuneJuly

AugustSeptember


Question: What month do you think you would most likely visit Cradle Mountain?

18 4

11 13

12 8

13 8

1 5 4

3

JanuaryFebruary

MarchAprilMayJuneJuly

AugustSeptember


17 33

32 17

Summer (Dec-Feb)

Autumn (Mar-May)

Winter (Jun-Aug)

Spring (Sep-Nov)

25 36

29 10

Summer (Dec-Feb)

Autumn (Mar-May)

Winter (Jun-Aug)

Spring (Sep-Nov)

Monthly demand Monthly demand

Seasonal demand Seasonal demand

Preferred month of travel to redeveloped CM: Total intenders % very likely-certain to visit in next 2 years, n=132

Derived by BDA from CM Development Survey

Current seasonal demand for CM % of intrastate holiday overnight & daytrips to CM –

3YT September ‘15 (n=236) Derived by BDA from NVS


87

Accommodation requirements

Indicative implications for accommodation requirements resulting

from intrastate demand

−While specific supply requirements were not in the scope of this study, indicative

implications of 23k additional visitor nights can be assessed

−At 1.8 visitors per room 23k visitor nights provides 13k room nights per year or

~35 per day

−To meet this demand an additional 46 rooms would be required (at 75%

occupancy)


accommodation

88


Intrastate travel has grown nationally and in Tasmania

− Cradle Mountain demand is also growing, although holiday demand is lagging behind the

strong demand trends for Tasmania

Cradle Mountain today has strong appeal and intention

− Even with reasonably high awareness and past visitation

− Considered a unique and highly appealing destination ►Core wilderness and positive past experience driving the strong appeal

A strong positive response to the redevelopment concept

−Most respondents are more likely to visit as a result or the redevelopment and there was an

increase in intention from Cradle Mountain today ►An increased intended length of stay was also evident

− The redevelopment was generally perceived to add unique, highly appealing experiences and

greater comfort to the destination, while providing benefits to Tasmania

− The Cable Car was the stand out element of the concept particularly in terms of driving new

demand to the region

− Dove Lake developments also appealed strongly ►The visitor centre, lounge and café and events where also positively received

89


The redevelopment would likely drive strong advocacy from locals

−85% of those interested are very likely or certain to recommend to interstate visitors

The redevelopment is projected to provide incremental intrastate

demand for the region

−The redevelopment tested is estimated to provide 18k visitors, 24k nights and up to

$7.5m in incremental demand over and above the trend outlook

►This represents a 20% increase in nights and 38% increase in expenditure in the region

►~4k of the incremental visitors were replacing an interstate or overseas trip

Several potential sources of additional demand also exist

− Incremental demand has been applied equally to current levels of day and overnight

visitation

►But any conversion of current day visitors into overnight visitors would provide additional nights and

expenditure into the region

−Additional demand potential was also evident for Cradle Mountain today

►If the redevelopment was to make more Tasmanians aware of the existing experiences then more

demand could be achieved

90

Execution imperatives – Inter & Intra

Incremental demand requires new, highly appealing and world class

experiences

The Cable Car is the core element of the Cradle Mountain concept and is

central to incremental demand

− Up to 85% of interstate/inbound incremental demand is at risk if the Cable Car is not part of the

redevelopment

− Similarly, up to 83% of intrastate incremental demand is at risk if the Cable Car is passed over

− The delivery of the experience must also live up to the expectation of potential visitors

Other elements must support this experience by delivering on key factors:

− Enabling visitors to engage more enjoyably with a highly appealing natural environment

− Providing comfort and accessibility for all to widen the potential audience

− Delivering a rewarding experience with minimal impact on the pristine environment

Awareness of experiences is also required to deliver incremental demand

− Those interested in the region need to know of the experiences and their core consumer benefits

− Positive word of mouth via experience delivery is vital, content & digital asset development is key

91

Appendix

Cradle Mountain performance

Accommodation requirement summary

Combined demand forecast


92

Cradle Mtn share of Tas demand

Cradle Mt share of trips

down over past 5 yrs −CM % of interstate trips

down to 25% From 30% pre-2012

Some improvement over the past 2

years though

− Inbound share trend similar Down by 10%, from 48% to 38%

over five years, though now lifting

− Intrastate share weaker Steady losses over the past 3 years


Trips to Cradle Mountain include day trips and overnight visitors

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Sep 0

8

Sep 0

9

Sep 1

0

Sep 1

1

Sep 1

2

Sep 1

3

Sep 1

4

Sep 1

5

Cradle Mt % of Tas interstate trips Share of interstate holiday trips to Tas

(%) – 12MMT Derived by BDA from NVS

202530354045505560

Sep 0

8

Sep 0

9

Sep 1

0

Sep 1

1

Sep 1

2

Sep 1

3

Sep 1

4

Sep 1

5

Cradle Mt % of Tas inbound trips Share of inbound holiday trips to Tas

(%) – 12MMT Derived by BDA from NVS

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Sep 0

8

Sep 0

9

Sep 1

0

Sep 1

1

Sep 1

2

Sep 1

3

Sep 1

4

Sep 1

5

38%

3%

25%

Cradle Mountain % of Tas Intrastate Share of intrastate holiday trips, day & overnight

trips (%) – 24MMA Derived by BDA from TVS

93

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Dec 0

8

Dec 0

9

Dec 1

0

Dec 1

1

Dec 1

2

Dec 1

3

Dec 1

4

Dec 1

5

Dec 1

6

Dec 1

7

Dec 1

8

Dec 1

9

Dec 2

0

Incremental visitor

demand −Redevelopment estimated to




− 18% additional demand


Total visitors to Cradle Mountain Interstate, international and intrastate (overnight and day visitors) – All purposes of trip

(000’s) – Annual volume Derived by BDA from BDA AUSMO / TVS / NVS

Trend outlook

Projected demand

with redevelopment





Day visitors 157.9k 183.8k 26k


94

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Dec 0

8

Dec 0

9

Dec 1

0

Dec 1

1

Dec 1

2

Dec 1

3

Dec 1

4

Dec 1

5

Dec 1

6

Dec 1

7

Dec 1

8

Dec 1

9

Dec 2

0

102k additional nights

in Cradle Mountain − 26% more nights than would


−Resulting from more visitors

and increased length of stay


Total nights at Cradle Mountain Interstate, international and intrastate (overnight and day visitors) – All purposes of trip

(000’s) – Annual volume Derived by BDA from BDA AUSMO / TVS / NVS

Trend outlook

Projected demand

with redevelopment





95

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Dec 0

8

Dec 0

9

Dec 1

0

Dec 1

1

Dec 1

2

Dec 1

3

Dec 1

4

Dec 1

5

Dec 1

6

Dec 1

7

Dec 1

8

Dec 1

9

Dec 2

0

Th

ou

sa

nd

s




− Lift in regional expenditure An additional $23.6m estimated in


redevelopment

Most from overnight visitors




& additional F&B spend

−Greater lift in regional spend An additional $29.2m estimated in


redevelopment


Total expenditure at Cradle Mountain Interstate, international and intrastate (overnight and day visitors) – All purposes of trip

($millions) – Annual volume Derived by BDA from BDA AUSMO / TVS / NVS

Trend outlook


with redevelopment +

Cable Car expenditure


outlook

Projected with

redevelopment

(scenario 1)

Incremental

demand

(scenario 1)

Projected with

redevelopment

(scenario 2)

Incremental

demand

(scenario 2)


Spend by

overnight visitors $63.1m $84.2m $20.8m $88.4m $25.0m

Spend by day

visitors $7.4m $10.0m $2.7m $11.6m $4.2m



and F&B expenditure


96

Redevelopment

provides an additional: − 59k visitors and 102k nights

to the Cradle Mtn region






Additional

Trips to CM

Additional

Nights in CM

Additional

expenditure in

CM (scenario 1)

Additional

expenditure in

CM (scenario 2)

Total

visitors 58.6k 102.1k $23.6m $29.2m

Overnight

intrastate visitors 5.4k 22.9k $4.2m $5.3m

Day

intrastate visitors 12.5k n/a $1.4m $2.2m

Overnight

interstate &

inbound visitors 27.2k 79.2k $16.6m $19.7m

Day

Interstate &

inbound visitors 13.5k n/a $1.3m $2.0m




97

Accommodation requirement summary

Indicative implications for accommodation requirements

−While specific supply requirements were not in the scope of this study, indicative implications

of 79k additional interstate/international and 23k intrastate visitor nights can be assessed

Accommodation requirements for interstate and international

− At 1.8 visitors per room 79k visitor nights provides 44k room nights per year or ~120 per day

− To meet this demand an additional 160 rooms would be required (at 75% occupancy)


accommodation

Accommodation requirements for intrastate

− At 1.8 visitors per room 23k visitor nights provides 13k room nights per year or ~35 per day

− To meet this demand an additional 46 rooms would be required (at 75% occupancy)


accommodation

As a result of the Cradle Mountain redevelopment, a total estimate of

206 rooms would be required to meet the additional demand

98

Estimated impact of Tas incremental demand

6.6k incremental interstate & international visitors

to Tasmania

Expenditure:

Applying average spend per person of $3,200 in Tasmania by current Cradle

Mountain visitors, an additional $21 million is estimated to result from

incremental visitors to Tasmania.

Nights spent in Tasmania:

Applying average length of stay of 13 nights in Tasmania by current Cradle

Mountain visitors, an additional 84k nights are estimated to result from

incremental visitors to Tasmania.

Other regional visits:

Applying average number of destinations visited of 4.2 other regions visited by

current Cradle Mountain visitors, other regions in Tasmania are estimated to

gain an additional 28k visits resulting from the incremental visitors to

Tasmania.

Incremental demand for Tasmania

Note: Current interstate & inbound behaviour by Cradle Mountain visitors is derived from

overnight visitors as measured in the TVS. Current intrastate behaviour by Cradle Mountain

visitors is derived from overnight visitors as measured in the NVS

4.3k incremental intrastate visitors for Tasmania

Expenditure:

Applying average spend per person of $420 in Tasmania by current Cradle

Mountain visitors, an additional $2 million is estimated to result from

incremental visitors for Tasmania.

Nights spent in Tasmania:

Applying average length of stay of 3.2 nights in Tasmania by current Cradle

Mountain visitors, an additional 14k nights are estimated to result from

incremental visitors for Tasmania.

Other regional visits:

Applying average number of destinations visited of 0.2 other regions visited by

current Cradle Mountain visitors, other regions in Tasmania are estimated to

gain an additional 1k visits resulting from the incremental visitors for

Tasmania.

99

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The information contained in this report is based upon client instructions and market

research data supplied by third parties. Neither BDA or any third party provide,

warrant or represent that any of the data is accurate or comprehensive, nor does

BDA or a third party provide, warrant or represent that forecasts will be realised,

since the achievement of results forecast depend upon matters beyond BDA or third

party control. The conclusions and forecasts, if any, contained in this report are not

representations of fact, but are opinions formed by BDA and provided in good faith

on the basis of your instructions and the data obtained by us. Accordingly, we do not

accept liability for any loss or damage suffered by you as a result of any of the

conclusions, predictions or outcomes in this report not being achieved. BDA is not

liable for any loss or damage arising directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance

by any third party on any information contained in this report.

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