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CENTER FOR WEATHER FORECAST AND CLIMATE STUDIES - CPTECCPTEC

Cachoeira Paulista – SP - BRAZIL

IMPROVEMENTS IN SEASONAL PREDICTION AT CPTEC - 2008

by

Pedro L. Silva Dias (1) (2)

(1) National Laboratory for Scientific Computing

(2) University of São Paulo - Brazil

Based on information provided by Christopher Cunningham - Climate Prediction Group Team Leader

Climate Prediction Group

Msc. Ana PrestesCarlos Renato

Msc. Christopher Cunningham (Team Leader)Gisele Fernandes

MSc. Helena BalbinoMsc. José PesqueroMsc. Lincoln Muniz

Coupled Modelling

Dr. Paulo Nobre

Operational Division

Dr. Marcelo Seluchi

Modelling Division

Dr. Dirceu Herdies

Main Researchers:

Dr. Chou Sin Chan – Dynamic Downscaling

Dr. Iracema Cavalcanti – Climate Dynamics

Dr. Jose Marengo – Climate Changes

Dr. Silvio Nilo – Convection

Dr. Caio Coelho – Statistical Modelling

Comitee for Interactionbetween Research and

Operation

Dr. Paulo Nobre

Scientific Advisor

WHO IS THE CLIMATE PREDICTION GROUP?

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Climate monitoring

DAILY DATA FLUX OVER BRAZIL AND SA Maintenance of the flux and products based on it

CPTEC´s AGCM, T062L28• KUO, persisted SSTA, predicted Atlantic and/or Pacific (15 members ENSEMBLE)• RAS, persisted SSTA, predicted Atlantic and/or Pacific (15 members ENSEMBLE)• GRELL, persisted SSTA, predicted Atlantic and/or Pacific (15 members ENSEMBLE)

Numerical Seasonal ForecastNumerical Seasonal Forecast

Currently we run every month:

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Numerical Seasonal ForecastNumerical Seasonal Forecast

All 90 members are combined into a multi-model ENSEMBLE

• CPTEC´s CGCM 10 member ENSEMBLE; RAS convection scheme

Currently we run every month:

Numerical Seasonal ForecastNumerical Seasonal Forecast

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• Regional model (Eta/CPTEC - 40km) 5 members ENSEMBLE

Currently we run every month:

Numerical Seasonal ForecastNumerical Seasonal Forecast

STATISTICAL DOWNSCALINGSTATISTICAL DOWNSCALING

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STATISTICAL DOWNSCALINGSTATISTICAL DOWNSCALING

Monthy Meetings for Climate Prediction

Since March/2007 the VISITview® has been used during the monthly meetings

It allows the remote interaction between participants

http://visitview.cptec.inpe.br/clima/0908/reuniao.html

For more information http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/visitview/

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Dissemination of Information:Dissemination of Information: Infoclima

Joint work with the National Institute of Meteorology

Seasonal ForecastSeasonal ForecastSMS is an application that enables users to run a large number of programs which may have dependencies on one another

SMS is SMS is an application that an application that enables users enables users to to run run a a large large number number of of programs which programs which may have dependencies on may have dependencies on one anotherone another

Supervisor Monitor

Scheduler(SMS)

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We upgrade to a version with 2m-temperature

A long run DERF-style was processed

So far DJF and JFM are ready

Run characteristics• Kuo cumulus convection• From 1970/1971 to 2000/2001• 10 members ENSEMBLE• Grid histories over South America• Observed SST• 2m-temperature

GLOBAL PRODUCING DATA CENTER GLOBAL PRODUCING DATA CENTER -- OMMOMM

MSSS – PRP - DJF

MSSS – SAT - DJF

GLOBAL PRODUCING DATA CENTER GLOBAL PRODUCING DATA CENTER -- OMMOMM

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GLOBAL PRODUCING DATA CENTER GLOBAL PRODUCING DATA CENTER -- OMMOMM

New web page, new forecast products

Skill scores in agreement with theOMM standards

SUMMARYSUMMARY

The Climate Prediction group is going through a re-organization in order to be more productive and improve the quality of the forecast

CPTEC has been recently accepted as Global Producer Data Centre. This will allow us provide better support to the climate and user community.

High quality and effective way of communicating the forecast to the users is as important as producing the prediction itself

CPTEC collaborates with other institutions in order to improve the seasonal forecast products to the final user