CPS Themesof Study€¦ · Source: CPS/FGV based on PNAD/IBGE microdata Inequality of Household per...

Mapping Poverty, Inequality and the New Middle Clas s Progress in Brazil (With special reference to Rio 2016 & 2014 World Cu p cities)

CPS Themes of Study

http://www.fgv.br/cps/2016/

Redistribuiçãoà Brasileira

O Segundo Real

Miséria, Desigualdade e

Políticas de RendaMiséria em Queda

Crescimento Pró-Pobre

Previous Research on Income Based Social Indicators see www.fgv.br/cps

Crônica da Crise:Ressaca e Resiliência Recentes

Crônica de uma Crise Anunciada: Choques Externos e a Nova Class

Média

Miséria e a Nova Nova Class Média na Década da Igualadade

A Nova Class Média

Mapa do Fim da Fome 2

New Middle Class

Latest Research on Income Based Social Indicators see www.fgv.br/cps

Stiglitz-Sen Report for Pres.

Sarkozy15-09-2009The core of the report’s recommendations http://www.stiglitz-sen-

fitoussi.fr/documents/rapport_anglais.pdf is in line with our research:

• Emphasize the income and consumption of the household to better assess material living standards. This assessment is moreprecise to the extent that per capita GDP does not necessarily reflect movements in the real household income and,

• Income, consumption and wealth measures must be followed by indicators that reflect their distribution– a constant concern of the CPS.

• The report’s authors strongly recommend the combination of objective and subjective measures of well-being, through the use of questions that capture people’s assessment about their own lives.

o CPS will soon launch a Perceived Human Development index based on the Gallup World Survey for 132 countries.

• Objective of this Research : provide a short

profile of the Brazilian conditions based on a

range of information from PNAD.

• The chapter on social indicators based on income

translates data on salary, journey, occupation,

unemployment, pensions, access to social

programs, etc. into fewer numbers

• How much has the Brazilian income grown or

diminished?

• In particular where has changed?

Source: CPS/FGV based on PNAD/IBGE microdata

+ Richest

Income Distribution Change

Gini Index


Accumulated reduction of the Gini index– 2001 to 2008

R e d u ç ã o n o G i n iM e n o s d e 2 , 5 %d e 2 , 5 % a 5 %d e 5 % a 7 , 5 %d e 7 , 5 % a 1 0 %M a i s d e 1 0 %


Inequality of Household per capita income – Brazil 2 001 to 2008


Poverty Scenario CounterfactualPer Capita Income % Poor Variation

TOTAL 592,12 16,02

Inquality effect Fall of Inequality like 2001 to 2008 592,12 13,04 -18,58%

Growth-Effect

-2% 580,28 13,48 -15,87%

-1% 586,20 13,41 -16,29%

1% 598,04 12,95 -19,14%

2% 603,96 12,64 -21,13%

3% 609,88 12,31 -23,15%

4% 615,80 12,03 -24,89%

5% 621,73 11,91 -25,63%

6% 627,65 11,54 -27,95%

7% 633,57 11,34 -29,23%

8% 639,49 11,11 -30,63%

9% 645,41 11,00 -31,36%

10% 651,33 10,95 -31,65%

11% 657,25 10,74 -32,96%

12% 663,17 10,65 -33,55%

13% 669,10 10,36 -35,34%

14% 675,02 10,33 -35,51%

15% 680,94 10,23 -36,17%

16% 686,86 10,13 -36,79%

17% 692,78 10,05 -37,29%

18% 698,70 9,97 -37,77%

19% 704,62 9,66 -39,70%

20% 710,54 9,45 -41,01%

21% 716,47 9,34 -41,72%

22% 722,39 9,24 -42,35%

23% 728,31 9,15 -42,90%

24% 734,23 9,03 -43,61%

25% 740,15 8,84 -44,84%Source: CPS/FGV based on PNAD/IBGE microdata

Poverty Scenario Counterfactual Per Capita Income % Poor Variation

Brazil 592,12 16,02 0,00

Growth-Effect-2% 580,28 16,53 3,23%

-1% 586,20 16,21 1,21%

1% 598,04 15,75 -1,65%

2% 603,96 15,54 -3,00%

3% 609,88 15,31 -4,41%

4% 615,80 15,06 -5,96%

5% 621,73 14,93 -6,79%

6% 627,65 14,68 -8,37%

7% 633,57 14,53 -9,26%

8% 639,49 14,33 -10,53%

9% 645,41 14,16 -11,61%

10% 651,33 13,95 -12,93%

11% 657,25 13,79 -13,92%

12% 663,17 13,65 -14,76%

13% 669,10 13,49 -15,76%

14% 675,02 13,34 -16,71%

15% 680,94 13,18 -17,68%

16% 686,86 13,04 -18,58%

17% 692,78 12,93 -19,28%

18% 698,70 12,75 -20,41%

19% 704,62 12,59 -21,41%

20% 710,54 12,43 -22,38%

21% 716,47 12,24 -23,58%

22% 722,39 12,06 -24,73%

23% 728,31 11,91 -25,66%

24% 734,23 11,74 -26,68%

25% 740,15 11,55 -27,87%

Fonte: CPS/IBRE/FGV processando os microdados da PNAD/IBGE

Decades:60s and 70s – Miracle– Growth

80s – Re-democratization90s – Stabilization

00s – Income inequality reduction? 10s – Revolution in the quality of

education ?

Inequality: Gini IndexPer capita income from all sources

Sources: CPS/FGV based on PNAD, PME and Censo / IBGE microdata and Langoni 1973

What caused the decreased in Gini

inequality 2001/2008?

• Work income 66,86%

• Social security 15,72 %

• Family Grant and other17,00 %

• Private transfer 0,50%• It is interesting that the analysis considers not only

the impacts of different income sources, particularly the transfers from the Brazilian government, on the inequality movements, but also its costs to the public accounts.

Gini IndexB is the area between Lorenz curve and the axis, the Gini index (G):

, 0<=G<1.

• Ratio of concentration

the curve of income concentration h shows how the accumulated

proportion of the income share h varies according to the accumulated

ratio of the population

Bh is the area between the curves and the axis, the Ratio of Concentrationof the share

h:

, -1<Ch<1.

Be the participation of the share of income h in the total income:

Thus the Gini index may be divided into K shares of the household per capita income.

Decomposition of the Gini Index between two

years

Percentage contribution of the h-part of the income for this change is:

*is the average between two years

• One may distinguish between the effect associated with the change in the

income (effect composition) and the effect associated with the chagne in

the ratio of concentration (concentration effect).

• The composition effect of the h-part as a percentage of the change in the

Gini index is:

• The concentration effect of the h-part as a percentage of the change in

the Gini index is:

Household Per Capita Income – Current real Reais R$ earned per month


Well-being – R$ Equivalent – Sen (1976) = Average* (1- Gini)


Increase in the Average Household Per CapitaIncome (all sources) – 2001 to 2008

A u m e n t o n a R e n d aM e n o s d e 1 0 %d e 1 0 % a 2 0 %d e 2 0 % a 3 0 %d e 3 0 % a 4 0 %M a i s d e 4 0 %


Poverty- % Population (Class E)


Poverty Eradication Costs

Minimum transfers to eradicate poverty

R$ person

R$ total month R$ total yearR$ non

poorR$ poor

Brazil 2007 9,01 1.680.719.363 20.168.632.359 10,73 56,29

Wealth transfers per non-poor person

0.5 % a.m. 1 % a.m. 2 % a.m.Brazil 2008 2147 1073 537


Participation in Total Income 2008 – Brazil

Per capita Income Level by pop groups 2008 – BrazilCurrent real Reais R$ earned per month

Source: CPS/FGV based on PNAD/ IBGE microdata.

Brazilian Society Split by Economic Class

* calculado a partir de Renda Domiciliar Per Capita

Definition of Economic Classes

Total Household Income from All Sources*

Inferior Superior

Class E 0 804

Class D 804 1115

Class C 1115 4807

Class AB 4807 -

* At December 2008 prices

limits


Class E – Poverty (% in total population)

Class D (% in total population)


Class C (% in total population)



Class AB (% in total population)


Income Mass Share of Economic Classes

C Class so called New Middle Class is Dominant both in population &income

2008

Population

Total (people) % Pop

Income Mass

Reais % Mass

TOTAL 186.440.290 100,00% 110.395.816.985 100,00%

Class E 29.860.927 16,02% 2.228.819.591 2,02%

Class D 45.399.117 24,35% 9.030.338.362 8,18%

Class C 91.762.175 49,22% 50.506.818.742 45,75%

Class AB 19.418.071 10,42% 48.629.840.290 44,05%


Accumulated Variation

2008-2003 2008-2007

Class E -43,04% -12,26%

Class D -8,90% -3,02%

Class C 31,05% 4,94%

Class AB 37,12% 6,99%

Difference (population)Shifts in

Population Size

2008-2003 2008-2007

Class E (19.458.924,00) (3.798.432,00)

Class D (1.485.360,00) (899.594,00)

Class C 25.890.892,00 5.285.627,00

Class AB 6.095.662,00 1.68.397,00


% Classe ABC% % % Var (%) Var (%)

rank 2008 2008 rank 2007 rank 2003 rank 2007/2008 rank 2003/2008

1 Florianópolis - SC 92.61 1 90.38 1 81.82 26 2.47% 34 13.19%2 Curitiba - PR 86.49 2 84.97 4 71.43 29 1.79% 28 21.08%3 Vitória - ES 80.07 3 82.18 2 73.57 36 -2.57% 36 8.84%4 Porto Alegre - RS 80.05 6 75.29 3 72.08 17 6.32% 35 11.06%5 Belo Horizonte - MG 78.61 5 75.60 7 62.00 22 3.98% 21 26.79%

1 Periferia de Fortaleza - CE 40.08 36 34.56 36 19.45 3 15.97% 1 106.07%2 Periferia de Salvador - BA 42.42 34 42.72 35 24.12 34 -0.70% 2 75.87%3 Periferia de Recife - PE 42.89 35 39.29 34 28.91 12 9.16% 9 48.36%4 Periferia de Belém - PA 45.28 33 42.99 33 29.87 19 5.33% 7 51.59%5 Maceió - AL 47.61 32 44.62 32 32.45 16 6.70% 11 46.72%


Ranking of Capitals and peripheries% Class ABC

Total Population

2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003

TOTAL 186440290 184384292 182218501 180001710 177758060 175398020

Class E 29860927 33659359 35196724 41047646 45147533 49319851

Class D 45399117 46298711 48007385 48713422 48286025 46884477

Class C 91762175 86476548 81888963 75266156 70620183 65871283

Class AB 19418071 17949674 17125429 14974486 13704319 13322409


• What Type of Income Source Explains Income

Distribution Change?Year

Income from all sources

Income from all

jobs

Other private income

Public transfer -

BF*

Basic social security benefit

- SM*

SS Benefit > SM*

2008 – R$ 592,12 450,29 12,86 12,73 28,05 88,2

2008 – %Composition 100% 76,05% 2,17% 2,15% 4,74% 14,90%

Average annual growth

2003-085,26% 5,13% 2,62% 20,99% 6,64% 4,44%

Growth2007-08

5,49% 4,5% 15,13% 30,83% 1,63% 7,68%


Average Per Capita Income Decomposition into different sources PNAD

PERCENTAGE PARTICIPATION IN THE INCOME FROM ALL JOB S IN TOTAL INCOME

L e g e n d aA t é 7 0 %d e 7 0 % a 7 5 %d e 7 5 % a 8 0 %d e 8 0 % a 8 5 %M a i s q u e 8 5 %



2003 2007

2008


PERCENTAGE PARTICIPATION OF FAMILY GRANT IN TOTAL INCOME

2003 2007

2008

L e g e n d aA t é 1 %d e 1 % a 2 %d e 2 % a 3 %d e 3 % a 4 %M a i s d e 4 %




Composition by type of income

sources

Social Security IndividualBenfits >MW

2008

Total 14,90% 4,74% 2,15% 76,05% 19,63%Class E 1,18% 9,47% 16,25% 71,25% 10,65%Class D 4,40% 12,66% 5,46% 76,35% 17,06%ClasseC 13,48% 7,25% 1,38% 76,40% 20,73%

Classes AB 18,94% 0,44% 1,68% 75,85% 19,39%2003

Total 15,50% 4,44% 1,07% 76,52% 19,93%Class E 1,98% 12,74% 4,87% 77,85% 14,71%Class D 6,23% 12,37% 1,36% 78,62% 18,60%Class C 15,53% 5,39% 0,58% 76,57% 20,91%

Classes AB 19,59% 0,25% 1,10% 75,74% 19,84%

Classes Public Transfers BF

Labor IncomeTotal Benefits

Social Security IndividualBenfits >MW

Social Security % Classe ABC

% % % Var (%) Var (%) 2008 2007 2003 2007/2008 2003/2008 Total 59.64 56.63 45.16 5.32% 32.06% Capital 68.48 64.82 54.62 5.65% 25.38% Periferia das metrópoles (não capital) 63.97 60.66 49.47 5.46% 29.31%

Área urbana não metropolitana 61.07 58.47 46.31 4.45% 31.87% Área rural 34.96 32.83 21.98 6.49% 59.05%


Type of city% Class ABC

População Contribuição

Categoria 2007-2008 2003-2008 2007-2008 2003-2008

Total 6776164 31983243 100.00% 100.00%


Categoria 2007-2008 2003-2008 2007-2008 2003-2008

Norte 629458 2603100 9.29% 8.14%

Nordeste 2009374 8501563 29.65% 26.58%

Sudeste 2768831 13468102 40.86% 42.11%

Sul 588939 4455922 8.69% 13.93%

Centro 755612 2962114 11.15% 9.26%

Contribution of Spatial Units to the rise of Class ABC2007-08 & 2003-08

In number of people and proportion of the total ABC growthPopulation Contribution



Categoria 2007-2008 2003-2008 2007-2008 2003-2008

Total 6776164 31983243 100.00% 100.00%


Categoria 2007-2008 2003-2008 2007-2008 2003-2008

Capital 1926152 7450514 28.43% 23.30%

Periferia das metrópoles (não capital) 1012624 4574920 14.94% 14.30%

Área urbana não metropolitana 3417552 16654350 50.43% 52.07%

Área rural 387315 3311143 5.72% 10.35%

Contribution of Spatial Units to the rise of Class ABC2007-08 and 2003-08

In number of people and proportion of the total ABC growthPopulation Contribution


• Class AB: The share of people in class AB grew 7% in the last year, which corresponds to 1.5 million entering the upper income group. In the last 5 years, 6 million people have ascended to this class that, in 2008, reaches 19,4 million people.

• Class C:37,56% of the Brazilian population in 2003, reached 49,22% in 2008, or 91 million people, the dominating class in terms of population size. This accumulated growth of 31% in 5 years means in population terms 25,9 million Brazilian people who had not been and became class C in the last 5 years (5,3 million last year alone).

Summary Summary

• Class D: the proportion of people in class D is 24, 35% in 2008 reaching 45,3 million Brazilians. In terms of trends, there has been a reduction of 0,9 million in one year or 3%, and 1.5 million if we consider the last five years.

• Class E:With a reduction of 12,27% in the last year, or the exit of 3,8 million people out of the lowest income group. This movement corroborates a trend since the end of the 2003 recession, when poverty fell 43%, that is, around 19,4 million people have crossed the poverty line. As a result, 29,9 million poor people (16,02% of the population) who would be instead 50 million had poverty not fallen in the last years With an income below 137 reais monthly (greater São Paulo area prices or 145 reais at national average prices pondered by the population of each class).

•

Research website:

www.fgv.br/cps/fc

http://www3.fgv.br/ibrecps/RET4/CPC_evolucao_temporal/index-eng.htm

Year I A. C.First Year After the Crisis:

Will 2009’s PNAD be similar to 2008?

Variation of Economic Classes Pre versus Post-Crisi s

Source: CPS/FGV based on PME/IBGE microdata

Class AB Class C Class D Class E

ago/02 13.27 43.16 14.76 28.81ago/03 11.32 42.30 16.45 29.93ago/04 12.02 45.74 16.49 25.74ago/05 12.75 45.84 17.51 23.90ago/06 13.46 48.92 15.81 21.80ago/07 14.16 50.66 14.79 20.40ago/08 15.72 51.97 13.57 18.74

set-08 15.43 53.15 13.52 17.90

out-08 15.64 53.21 13.31 17.84

nov-08 15.35 53.37 13.47 17.82

dez-08 15.33 53.81 13.18 17.68

jan-09 14.91 52.64 13.58 18.87

fev-09 14.84 52.67 13.67 18.82

mar-09 15.03 52.52 13.75 18.70

abr-09 14.38 52.72 13.97 18.92

mai-09 14.40 53.34 13.67 18.60

jun-09 14.79 53.19 13.70 18.32

jul-09 14.97 53.20 13.51 18.32ago/09 15.34 53.37 13.45 17.84

Evolution of economic classes


Variation of Economic Classes Pre versus Post-Crisi s


Variation of Class ABC (Pós-Crise) – July 2008 to July 2009


PROPRIOPG 7 15 -41*

PROPRIO 13 -3 13

ALUGUEL_AB -17 -8 24

ALUGUEL_AC 17 -9 18

CEDIDO -18 -6 16

DOM_OUT -4 2 2

CASALFILHO -4 -37 -7

CASALFILHO_AB14 -8 -5 63*

CASALFILHO_AC14 23 3 -31

CASALFILHO_14 6 53* -6

MAE_AB14 -9 9 4

MAE_AC14 -2 -6 -25 *

MAE_14 -5 18 -5

MAE_IG 0 0 -1

FAM_OUT -10 -38 -21

EDUCONJ_SEM -25 13 -21

EDUCONJ_1_3 -18 11 -9

EDUCONJ_4_7 -11 11 13

EDUCONJ_8_11 27 -4 36

EDUCONJ_12 48* -7 2

CONJPOS_DESEMP -2 1 18

CONJPOS_PRIV 7 4 31

CONJPOS_LIB 6 8 4

CONJPOS_EMP 21 0 -1

CONJPOS_PUB 25 3 3

CONJPOS_NREM -20 7 -22 *

CONJPOS_NCONJ -14 -20 -29 *

Variância Explicada por cada FatorFator1 Fator2 Fator3 Factor4

6.7790241 4.4784225 4.0032932 2.9953943


• Cognitive dissonance: Grasshoppers or Ants?

• Subjective approach

• Comparison between countries

1

Present Satisfaction x Real GDP per capita

Brazil Denmark

2

y = 1E-04x + 4,4338

R2 = 0,6499

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000

Real GDP per capita

Italy

Togo

Present Life Satisfaction X Per Capita GDP PPP

Does money bring happiness?

Source: Gallup World Poll – IADB project

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India

RussiaChina

ItalyDenmark

Togo

Zinbawe

Future happiness (in five years time)

Source: CPS/FGV based on microdata Gallup World Poll 2006 – IADB/FGV project

L e g e n d aA t é 55 a 66 a 77 a 8M a i s d e 8S e m d a d o s


Individual happiness in the Present

L e g e n d aA t é 55 a 66 a 77 a 8M a i s d e 8N o D a t a


General Happiness of Nations- present


F e l i c i d a d e I n d i v i d u a l - N o f u t u r o


Individual happiness in the Future



General Happiness of Nations - future

L e g e n d aA t é 0 , 1 0 00 , 1 0 0 a 0 , 1 5 00 , 1 5 0 a 0 , 2 0 00 , 2 0 0 a 0 , 2 5 0M a i s d e 0 , 2 5 0S e m d a d o s

Í n d i c e d e G i n i - F e l i c i d a d e I n d i v i d u a l F u t u r a


Gini Index – Individual Future Happiness

L e g e n d aA t é 4 , 04 , 0 a 5 , 05 , 0 a 6 , 06 , 0 a 7 , 0M a i s d e 7 , 0N o D a t a

N o t a d e B e m - E s t a r S o c i a l - F e l i d a d e F u t u r a


Social Welfare Grade - Future HappinessFuture perception (country) x future happiness

Total population

Future

Happiness

Perception

Country

Brazil 8,78 6,84


Future perception (country) x future happiness (individual)

Dissonance Index

y = 0,2402x + 5,291

R2 = 0,154,5

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individuo

- pais

País País País37 new zealand 6,98 1zzzbrazil 8,78 1puerto rico 3,4538 canada 6,97 2venezuela 8,52 2trinidad & tobago 2,8239 kuwait 6,96 3denmark 8,51 3jamaica 2,5840 benin 6,9 4 ireland 8,32 4honduras 2,4641 colombia 6,86 5jamaica 8,25 5france 2,3642 burundi 6,86 6united states 8,14 6netherlands 2,1343 zzzbrazil 6,84 7canada 8,14 7united kingdom 2,0644 thailand 6,84 8new zealand 8,14 8united states 2,0145 bolivia 6,83 9australia 8,06 9zzzbrazil 1,9446 kosovo 6,74 10panama 8,05 10italy 1,7947 switzerland 6,72 11israel 8,03 11costa rica 1,7748 uruguay 6,71 12belgium 7,98 12germany 1,7549 zambia 6,62 13sweden 7,97 13sweden 1,6950 nepal 6,62 14colombia 7,97 14belgium 1,5851 estonia 6,61 15norway 7,94 15australia 1,5752 tanzania 6,56 16united arab emirates 7,94 16israel 1,5653 niger 6,54 17nigeria 7,89 17poland 1,4954 sri lanka 6,52 18finland 7,86 18el salvador 1,4955 afghanistan 6,51 19costa rica 7,82 19guatemala 1,4456 togo 6,5 20switzerland 7,82 20ethiopia 1,33


Dissonance between future expectations in five year s time (individual and country)

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