COVID-19 Weekly Report June 10th-16th...May which close in April, May and June have previously...

June 10th – June 16th

COVID-19 Weekly Report

Please note

The contents of this report reflect attached and detached single family (ASF+ DSF) in the 7 Metro Denver Counties: Adams, Arapahoe, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, Elbert and Jefferson.

This representation is based in whole or in part on content supplied by REcolorado®, Inc. REcolorado®, Inc. does not guarantee nor is it in any way responsible for its accuracy. Content maintained by REcolorado®, Inc. may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. Dates shown on graphs for timeframes included.

Showing data is courtesy of ShowingTime.

Peak week for the purpose of this presentation is considered to by 3/4/2020-3/10/2020.

WOW is week over week.

A given market in balance changes by price range. Please see notes on applicable slides.

Strategy and Foresight

The Cycle – Through May

DSF

Rising Market:

Jan-Jun 2020

Falling

Market:

Jul-Oct 2020

2020 saw early market activity as we have experienced for the last 7 years. Active units remained below the

anticipated mark with pending and closed units reporting above expectation. With seasonally rising inventory and

falling demand prices fall back. Due to COVID-19 pandemic we are watching this closely, clearly demand numbers

took a hit in March and April.

Supply vs. Demand- 2020 Baseline

DSF

In 2020 Denver still measures as an Extreme Seller’s Market, this metric shows signs

of another compressed cycle. This metric is one of the most important metrics in

measuring shift. A balanced market would report a value of 6.0 months.

See COVID-19 Weekly Report for More Current Values

Pricing – 2020 Baseline

DSF

Since we cannot track the average sold price until a property closes, this metric lags actual

contracts written in the market. With slowed appreciation due to COVID-19 YTD Greater Metro

Denver has appreciated 2.9% since January 2020 which is 7.3% behind where we should be

based on previous years in this cycle (2013-2019).

Pricing - 2020 Baseline

DSF

When the anticipated monthly percentage change in price is applied to the actual

dollar amount, Metro Denver has started 2020 nearly on pace with previous year

gains, and jumped in March. Due to quarantine efforts, appreciation fell back in May

placing us $40,324 behind expectation.


DSF

Median sold appreciation was off to very strong start in 2020. Same as the

percentage change in average sold price since this metric can not be tracked until a

property closes and it drags behind actual market activity. As of May 2020 we were

behind projections by -6.1%.


DSF

When the anticipated monthly percentage change in median price is applied to the actual dollar

amount. Metro Denver in 2020 started off very quickly. As of May 2020 we were behind

projections by $28,676 when compared to previous years in this cycle (2013-2019).

Close to List Price Ratios-2020 Baseline

DSF

Close to list price ratio is another closed metric that is lagging behind current market

activity. 2020 started out on pace with this cycle, as determined by the last 7 years.

Multiple Offers – 2020 Baseline

DSF

In previous years of this cycle (2013-2019), homes were most likely to receive

multiple offers when closing March- Jun. This means they would have been under

contract 30 days prior and making prime listing months between March-May. We are

monitoring the shift on multiple offers.

Price Reductions – 2020 Baseline

DSF

Fewer units were required to make price reductions early in 2020. As of May

approximately 20.8% of homes that closed had at least one price reduction, which is only

1% more than expected based on previous years in this cycle.


Price Reductions – 2020 Baseline

DSF

The largest price reductions are most likely in the bookend months of the calendar year being

January and February then from October through December. Homes listed in March, April and

May which close in April, May and June have previously reported the smallest price reductions.

Due to COVID-19 price reductions are being monitored closely.


Time on Market – 2020 Baseline

DSF

In the past we expected to see homes moving most quickly for those units closing in

March, April and May. Usually beginning in June and through the end of the year

homes were expected to spend more time on market.


Time on Market- 2020 Baseline

DSF

Median days to contract was 1 day over expectation in May. Again, this metric is most

closely tied to units that went under contract in Late March or Early April 2020. Time

on market is likely to grow due to COVID-19 if this becomes an extended event.


Time on Market- Flash Sales2020 Baseline

DSF

Slightly slower start for units that went under contract in the first weekend beginning

of 2020. This metric is likely to show signs of shift quickly due to quarantine

restrictions due to COVID-19.

Odds of Selling- 2020 Baseline

DSF

The Odds of Selling can be an early market indicator as to how the upcoming months

will perform. Due to a more mild weather pattern in early 2020, low interest rates

and minimal inventory, 2020’s odds of selling soared.

Mid- Month Review

Mid Month Projection June 2020 COVID-19 Review Where are we Year to Date?

This data compares the

past 7 years in our real

estate cycle vs. 2020

both monthly and year

to date. Despite the

many challenges COVID-

19 brought the real

estate market when

compared historically

2020 has still fared

better than expected in

many metrics. Detached

single family, however,

continues to lag slightly

in pending and closed

transactions with more

significant drag in

appreciation which will

be challenging to make

up through the end of

the year.

DSF

Metric Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19Average for

June

(2013-2019)

Jun-20%

Difference

Average YTD

as of June

(2013-2019)

YTD 2020%

Difference

Active 7,558 6,588 5,281 5,708 5,528 5,633 5,185 5,926 4,208 -29.0% 4,665 3,566 -23.6%

Pending 3,895 3,874 3,928 3,900 3,937 3,793 4,198 3,932 5,716 45.4% 21,126 22,172 5.0%

Closed Count* 4,222 4,097 4,213 4,013 4,173 4,045 3,826 4,084 3,410 -16.5% 18,456 15,553 -15.7%

Odds of Selling* 47.0% 49.7% 59.1% 59.7% 58.1% 54.3% 49.1% 53.9% 51.2% -4.9% 55.6% 59.7% 4.1%

Avg DOM* 34 26 20 19 19 19 21 23 20 -11.4% 33 27 -18.2%

Median DOM* 9 8 6 6 6 6 8 7 7 0.0% 12 10 -16.7%

Months of Inventory* 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.2 -15.2% 1.6 1.4 -12.5%

% of Properties Under

Contract in 7 Days or Less*47.0% 49.7% 59.1% 59.7% 58.1% 54.3% 49.1% 53.9% 51.2% -2.6% 47.3% 49.3% 2.0%

Close to List Price

Ratio*99.8% 100.0% 101.1% 101.0% 100.6% 100.4% 99.5% 100.3% 99.8% -0.5% 99.8% 99.7% -0.1%

% of Reduced Listings* 18.7% 21.5% 17.6% 18.4% 19.8% 22.0% 26.9% 20.7% 45.5% 24.8% 25.2% 22.4% -2.8%

Average Price

Reduction*-5.4% -5.1% -4.7% -4.9% -4.5% -4.3% -4.1% -4.7% -3.9% 0.8% 5.1% 4.4% -0.7%

Monthly Average Price

Change*3.5% -0.2% 0.2% 2.4% 1.9% 0.5% -0.8% 1.1% 3.2% 2.1% 11.3% 6.1% 5.2%

Average Appreciation

(YOY)*7.5% 7.2% 12.3% 9.4% 6.9% 7.4% 2.6% 7.6% 1.6% -6.0% 7.6% 1.6% -6.0%

Monthly Median Price

Change*1.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 1.2% 0.3% -1.1% 0.5% 1.5% 1.0% 11.6% 6.4% 5.1%

Median Appreciation

(YOY)*10.2% 9.2% 15.0% 9.5% 5.7% 8.0% 3.6% 8.7% 3.2% -5.5% 8.7% 3.2% -5.5%

PROJECTION for COVID-19 Monthly and YTD Through June Comparison with Historic Benchmarks DSF - All Prices

This representation is based in whole or in part on content supplied by REcolorado®, Inc. REcolorado®, Inc. does not guarantee nor is it in any way responsible for its accuracy. Content maintained by REcolorado®, Inc. may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. Dates

shown on graphs for timeframes included. Adams, Arapahoe, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, Elbert, Jefferson. Projection based on averge values from 2013-2019. Data fields containing (*) are lagging indicators that are more reflective of homes placed in the pending status 45-

60 days prior and may not be representative of the current market. Courtesy of Megan Aller- First American Title Insurance Company.

The Cycle

DSF

Rising Market:

Jan-Jun 2020

Falling

Market:

Jul-Oct 2020

2020 saw early market activity as we have experienced for the last 7 years. Active units remained below the

anticipated mark with pending and closed units reporting above expectation. With seasonally rising inventory and

falling demand prices fall back. Due to COVID-19 pandemic we are watching this closely, clearly demand numbers

took a hit in March and April.


2020 Strategy - All Prices

DSF

Based on previous years in this cycle

(2013-2019) these values represent the

best times to be in the market in 2020.

The market is likely to favor those

sellers who are ready to take advantage

of early buyer activity.

Sellers late to the market in the

summer months are more likely to

spend longer on the market, make price

reductions and sell at lower prices than

spring sellers.

Buyers are most likely to have

negotiating power in the mid summer-

fall.

Prior Week Review

Review of Prior Week’s Benchmarks to Return to Pre-COVID-19

This data shows the accuracy of predictions made last week. Using Listing Count and conversion rates of shows to

pending transactions, solid benchmarks have been established to share with buyers and sellers about our current

market.

Price Range

Current

Active

Count

Average

Shows to

Contract

Current

MSI

Pending to Maintain

Current MSI

Showings Required to

Maintain Current MSI

Target Shows

per ListingPeak MSI

Pending to Restore

to Peak MSI


Restore to Peak MSI

Target Shows

per ListingActual MSI Actual Pending

Actual

Showings

Actual Shows per

Listing

Actual Average

Shows to

Contract

All Prices 6,222 12.4 0.8 1,788 22,170 3.6 0.7 2,043 29,969 4.8 0.8 1,892 23,407 3.8 12.4

0-500K 2,619 12.6 0.6 1,003 12,643 4.8 0.2 3,010 37,930 14.5 0.5 1,151 14,456 5.5 12.6

500K-1.0M 2,625 11.5 1.0 603 6,940 2.6 0.7 862 9,914 3.8 0.9 654 7,511 2.9 11.5

1.0M-1.5M 521 18.5 2.8 43 791 1.5 1.5 80 1,477 2.8 1.9 64 963 1.8 15.0

1.5M-2.0M 209 36.0 7.1 7 244 1.2 1.8 27 961 4.6 1.8 27 236 1.1 8.7

Future Benchmarks to Return to Pre-COVID-19 Market For the week of June 10th to June 16th

Showing data courtesy of ShowingTime for the 7 Metro Denver Counties: Adams, Arapahoe, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, Elbert, Jefferson. This representation is based in whole or in part on content supplied by REcolorado®, Inc. REcolorado®, Inc. does not guarantee nor is it in any way responsible for its accuracy. Content maintained by REcolorado®, Inc. may not reflect all real

estate activity in the market. Dates shown on graphs for timeframes included. Projections based on prior week's actual values. Provided by Megan Aller, First American Title Insurance.

Review of Prior Week’s Benchmarks to Return to Pre-COVID-19

This data shows the accuracy of predictions made last week. The demand in the market is being led by buyer

resiliency, which can be tracked daily by way of showings. Showings lead to pending transactions which is critical to

measure as Greater Metro Denver degree of return to pre-COVID market dynamics.

All Prices

100%All homes in the 7 Metro Counties

2020 Strategy - All Prices

DSF

Based on previous years in this cycle

(2013-2019) these values represent the

best times to be in the market in 2020.

The market is likely to favor those

sellers who are ready to take advantage

of early buyer activity.

Sellers late to the market in the

summer months are more likely to

spend longer on the market, make price

reductions and sell at lower prices than

spring sellers.

Buyers are most likely to have

negotiating power in the mid summer-

fall.

Market Response Tracking All Prices

ASF + DSF

Predictive MSI

WOW: -8.6%

From Peak: +6.2%

Avg Daily Active

WOW: -0.8%

From Peak:+35.6%

New Listings

WOW: +3.8%

From Peak:+5.8%

Back on Market

WOW: -1.7%

From Peak: +32.9%

Expired

WOW: -16.7%

From Peak: -8.2%

Withdrawn

WOW: +31.4%

From Peak: +86.1%

Pending

WOW: +8.5%

From Peak: +27.8%

Closed

WOW: +36.9%

From Peak: +44.8%

* A market in balance between buyer and seller is defined as 6.0 months of inventory

Active vs Balanced Market All Prices

ASF + DSF

Avg Daily Active

WOW: -0.8%

From Peak: +35.6%

Active Required for Balance

WOW: +8.5%

From Peak: +27.8%

% of Balance

WOW: -1.2%

From Peak: +0.7%


Days Until Balanced Market All Prices

ASF + DSF

Days until Equilibrium

WOW: +7.0%

From Peak: +15.6%


Showing Data All Prices

ASF + DSF

Total Showings

WOW: +7.9%

From Peak: -17.0%

Shows per Listing

WOW: +8.7%

From Peak: -38.8%

Shows to Contracts All Prices

ASF + DSF

Total Showings

WOW: -19.4%

From Peak: -23.1%

Pending

WOW: +8.5%

From Peak: +27.8%

Showings to Contracts

WOW: -0.6%

From Peak: -35.1%

Median DOM for Pending Sales All Prices

ASF + DSF

Days on Market

WOW: +14.3%

From Peak: +60.0%

* This information is based on newly signed purchase contracts for the previous week.

Price Reductions All Prices

ASF + DSF

Decrease:

WOW: +0.4%

From Peak: +12.6%

Increase

WOW: -0.3%

From Peak: -1.3%

No Change

WOW: -1.4%

From Peak: -11.3%

*This calculates the total number of pending transactions that modified price prior

to going under contract.

Price Reductions All Prices

ASF + DSF

$ Price Reduction

WOW: +6.0%

From Peak: +13.0%

% Price Reduction

WOW: -0.1%

From Peak: -0.3%

*This calculates the amount of the price reduction made for pending transactions

prior to going under contract.

Looking Forward to Next Week

Looking forward into next week, these are the benchmarks required to either maintain current relationship between

supply and demand or return to Pre-COVID market conditions.

Set Up for Next Week’s Benchmarks to Return to Pre-COVID-19

Price Range

Current

Active

Count

Average

Shows to

Contract

Current

MSI

Pending to Maintain

Current MSI


Maintain Current MSI

Target Shows

per ListingPeak MSI

Pending to Restore

to Peak MSI


Restore to Peak MSI

Target Shows

per ListingActual MSI Actual Pending

Actual

Showings

Actual Shows per

Listing

Actual Average

Shows to

Contract

All Prices 6,037 12.4 0.8 1,735 21,511 3.6 0.7 1,983 29,969 5.0

0-500K 2,545 12.6 0.5 1,170 14,743 5.8 0.2 2,925 36,859 14.5

500K-1.0M 2,577 11.5 0.9 658 7,570 2.9 0.7 846 9,733 3.8

1.0M-1.5M 512 15.0 1.9 62 929 1.8 1.5 78 1,177 2.3

1.5M-2.0M 209 8.7 1.8 27 232 1.1 1.8 27 232 1.1

Future Benchmarks to Return to Pre-COVID-19 Market For the week of June 17th-June 23rd

Showing data courtesy of ShowingTime for the 7 Metro Denver Counties: Adams, Arapahoe, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, Elbert, Jefferson. This representation is based in whole or in part on content supplied by REcolorado®, Inc. REcolorado®, Inc. does not guarantee nor is it in any way responsible for its accuracy. Content maintained by REcolorado®, Inc. may not reflect all real

estate activity in the market. Dates shown on graphs for timeframes included. Projections based on prior week's actual values. Provided by Megan Aller, First American Title Insurance.

*Looking forward into next week, these are the benchmarks required to either maintain current relationship between

supply and demand or return to Pre-COVID market conditions.

Set Up for Next Week’s Benchmarks to Return to Pre-COVID-19

Personal Mission Statement

I am committed to helping our clients and their buyers and sellers complete smooth transactions, from initial contract all the way to First American’s closing tables.

Sourcing Page

Megan Aller

First American Title Insurance Company

720-229-6641

[email protected]

Title insurance license: 360158

Real estate license: FA100080623, Porchlight Real Estate Group

REALTOR NRDS: 219534435

Included in this presentation include data from the following sources:

This representation is based in whole or in part on content supplied by REcolorado®, Inc. REcolorado®, Inc. does not

guarantee nor is it in any way responsible for its accuracy. Content maintained by REcolorado®, Inc. may not reflect all

real estate activity in the market. Dates shown on graphs for timeframes included. Showing data from ShowingTime.

COVID-19 Weekly Report June 10th-16th...May which close in April, May and June have previously...

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