COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models · COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models ....
Transcript of COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models · COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models ....
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COVID-19 Trend Forecasting Using Neural Models
Prof. Xifeng Yan
Collaborators: Xiaoyong Jin, Prof. Yu-Xiang Wang Computer Science, UCSB
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Introduction
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Knowledge Base
Text Analysis
Time Series
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Time Series Forecasting: A Long Standing Problem
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forecasting given history
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Old Issues, New Technologies
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Amazon Ours
Our neural network approach, ConvTrans (NeurIPS 2019): • the state-of-the-art accuracy • a broad range of applications • deployed in leading industries
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We Flattened the Curve
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Not That Pessimistic
6 credit: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
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But Hospitalization Is Rising
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from cnbc
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Business Reopenning vs Protest
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Time Square @ New York City, June 23, 3:13pm
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Washington D.C.
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NSF Rapid: Interventional COVID-19 Response Forecasting
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lock down
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Interventional COVID-19 Response Forecasting
Factors: Demographic, population density, business structure, cultural, psychological factors and interventional policy differ across regions.
Different from the classic epidemic models like SIR for COVID-19, we develop a new type of data-driven forecasting models based on the lately developed deep learning techniques
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Factors
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Demographic
Population Density
Business Structure
Culture
Psychological
Contact Ratio
Infection Ratio
Hospitalization
ICU
Death
Disease Dynamics
Intervention
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COVID Forecasting
Different regions share COVID-19 trending pattern The spreading rate is
determined by common factors, such as social interactions and protections
To forecast cases in a
certain region, we can refer to other regions where pandemic starts earlier
Daily new cases 14
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Find Similar Regions
For example, sharing similar factors : demographic, population density, business structure, social culture, psychological factors and interventional policy
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OR
Find regions whose trends look similar: All the
aforementioned factors have been priced in!
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Similar historical pattern Similar future growth
Santa Barbara county is experiencing a new wave of COVID-19 spreading that resembles that in other regions e.g. Mexico in early June
history
growth
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Attention Mechanism
Regions
Time
z
reported cases in current region of
interest
reported cases in reference regions
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Neural Network Model
reported cases in current region of interest
reported cases in available reference regions
Processing a window of time series 1. Add factors 2. Use learnable convolution to
embed all the windows into vector representations (colored bars)
pairwise comparison b/w historical pattern representations
scores measuring pattern similarity
combination of
reference trends
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Identified References
For Santa Barbara County during 06/12 ~ 06/22 Most similar state: North Carolina during 03/31~04/10 Most similar counties in NC:
NC/Mecklenburg NC/Wake NC/Durham
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Forecasting Cases for Santa Barbara County
3-day-ahead forecast means the prediction for the date is made three days before
Next-week forecast is made on 06/26 for the next 7 days
RMSE MAPE RBF-SVM (autoregression)
180 0.072
SIR model
284 0.11
Attention 75.7 0.030
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Forecasting 14-day Moving Average of New Cases
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Daily Updated Trend @ Santa Barbara
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http://fts.cs.ucsb.edu/covid19
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Intervention Strategy
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Demographic
Population Density
Business Structure
Culture
Psychological
Contact Ratio
Infection Ratio
Hospitalization
ICU
Death
Disease Dynamics
Intervention
Wearing a Mask
Social Distancing
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Q&A
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