Covid-19: Shipping Impact Assessment - IUMI...Covid-19: Shipping Impact Assessment (selected...

Covid-19: Shipping

Impact Assessment (selected extracts only)

Clarksons Research

17 April 2020

Update No. 5see also separate impact assessments on

(i) newbuilding and (ii) offshore available on SIN.

Contents:

5

6. Impact on Global Economy

7. Changing Risk Profile & Focus For Shipping

8. Tracking Port Activity By Region

9. ClarkSea Index Trends

10. Downgrades To The Seaborne Trade Outlook

11. Economic Impacts Framework

12. Shipping Impacts Framework

13. Shipbuilding: Weekly Shipyard Output By Country

14. Shipbuilding: 2020 Scenarios

15. Impacts on Ship Repair & Scrubber Retrofitting

Annex: See Annex Contents.

Covid-19: Shipping Impact Assessment | April 2020 Update No. 5

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

22-F

eb-2

0

29-F

eb-2

0

07-M

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20

14-M

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21-M

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28-M

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20

04-A

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11-A

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-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

21-J

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10-M

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17-M

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31-M

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07-A

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14-A

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International Forecasters

Chinese Forecasters

World Bank Low

Case

(30-Mar-20)

Pre-coronavirus average

Impact on Global Economy…

6

…major downgrades to outlook as outbreak becomes global pandemic…

Source: Clarksons Research, range of industry sources.

Pre-coronavirus average

China 2020 GDP ForecastsGlobal 2020 GDP Forecasts US & Europe 2020 GDP Forecasts

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

21-J

an-2

0

28-J

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0

04-F

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0

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20

10-M

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17-M

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24-M

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31-M

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07-A

pr-

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14-A

pr-

20

US

Eurozone

US pre-virus average

Eurozone pre-virus avg


IMF

Rapid escalation of scale of global impact, stimulus measures

Source: World Health Organisation, various, Clarksons Research. Economic stimulus table includes selection of recently reportedly measures.

Changing Risk Profile & Focus For Shipping As Virus Spreads

7

Number Of New Covid-19 Cases

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

22-Jan-20 05-Feb-20 19-Feb-20 04-Mar-20 18-Mar-20 01-Apr-20

China

Other Countries

17th Feb: 19,461

4th April: Total number of

global Covid-19 cases

reaches one million

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

22-Jan-20 05-Feb-20 19-Feb-20 04-Mar-20 18-Mar-20 01-Apr-20

% Global Population Under Full Or Partial Lockdown


DateCountry/

RegionStimulus Details

3 Feb China $21bn Injection of liquidity into financial markets

5 Feb China US tariff cuts Tariff reductions on imports of US crude oil, grain

16 Feb Japan $113bn Expansion of quantitative easing programme

18 Feb China US tariff waivers Tariff waivers on imports of US crude, grain, gas

19 Feb China Interest rate cut Lowering of benchmark interest rates

19 Feb China Virus-linked bonds (>$3.4bn)Issuance of bonds with low coupon rates where 10% of proceeds

spent on controlling epidemic

28 Feb Italy $1bn Suspension of mortgages, tax relief, income & business support

28 Feb South Korea $16.7bn Support to local economies, tax cuts, loans

1 Mar Italy $4bn Support to tourism, logistics and transport sectors. Tax relief

3 Mar US Interest rate cut Cut by 50 basis points

3 Mar World Bank $12bn Focusing on developing countries coping with coronavirus impacts

4 Mar IMF $50bn Fund focused at low income and emerging market countries

4 Mar China Infrastructure / Stimulus Announcements by 13 provinces

11 Mar UK $38bn Emergency response fund, business and public sector support

12 Mar Euro Area $135bn Expansion of ECB asset purchase program

13 Mar US $50bn Emergency funding

15 Mar China $79bn Reduction in banks reserve requirement ratio

17 Mar UK $400bn Business loans, income support, tax relief

18 Mar Euro Area $820bn Further expansion of ECB quantitative easing programme

25 Mar US $2,000bn Business loans, income support, public health

26 Mar India $23bn Fiscal package supporting lower income groups

2 Apr World Bank $160bn Emergency support to developing countries

7 Apr Japan $990bn Emergency funding

9 Apr US $2,300bn Loans to businesses, state/municipal governments

9 Apr Euro Area $590bn Support to workers, businesses and EU states

Economic Stimulus Measures

No global trend yet, Europe and US weakening, China activity returning to above 2019 levels

Source: Sea/net, Clarksons Research. China Port Calls basis calls at mainland Chinese ports (3 day moving average). Port calls defined as all instances of a vessel entering and leaving a defined port location, excluding instances where vessel

not recorded as travelling at less than 1 knot, and combining multiple consecutive instances at the same port where the vessel has not left a buffered shape around the port. Data basis date vessel last recorded in port location. ^Europe-5 includes

Germany, Italy, Spain, UK and France. *Deep Sea Cargo Vessel series includes oil tankers MR and above, bulkcarriers Handymax and above, containerships 3,000+ TEU, VLGCs, LNG carriers 60,000+ cbm and PCTCs 6,000+ ceu.

Covid-19: Tracking Port Activity By Region (Deep Sea Cargo Vessels)

8

Global Port Calls – Deep Sea Cargo Vessels* (No. Calls, 7dma) China Port Calls – Deep Sea Cargo Vessels* (No. Calls, 3dma)

40

60

80

100

120

01-J

an

08-J

an

15-J

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22-J

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29-J

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05-M

ar

12-M

ar

19-M

ar

26-M

ar

02-A

pr

09-A

pr

16-A

pr

2019

2020

Latest date:

14th April 2020

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

01-J

an

08-J

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15-J

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2019

2020

Latest date:

14th April 2020

Europe-5^ Port Calls – Deep Sea Cargo Vessels* (No. Calls, 7dma) US Port Calls – Deep Sea Cargo Vessels* (No. Calls, 7dma)

Days before/after Chinese New Year

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

01-J

an

08-J

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15-J

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22-J

an

29-J

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05-M

ar

12-M

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26-M

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02-A

pr

09-A

pr

16-A

pr

2019

2020

Latest date:

14th April 2020

100

150

200

250

300

350

-15

-10 -5 0 5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

2019

2020

Day 0: Chinese New Year

2019: 5th February

2020: 25th January

Latest date:

14th April 2020

Europe-5 Deep Sea Cargo Vessel Port Calls down

18% y-o-y in April so far in GT terms, -14% in

numbers.

US Deep Sea Cargo Vessel Port Calls down 8%

y-o-y in April so far in both number and GT terms.


Global Deep Sea Cargo Vessel Port Calls up 1.2%

y-o-y in April so far in GT terms, +0.8% in

numbers.

… Improvements 2016-19; Covid-19 disruption early 2020 but still up y-o-y; now tanker spike

…Cross-sector ClarkSea Index…

9

Source: Clarksons Research *YTD avg basis average to 3rd April 2020.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Jan-1

6

Jan-1

7

Jan-1

8

Jan-1

9

Jan-2

0

$000/day

Improvements 2016-19… Events in 2008/09…Major Covid-19 disruption…

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Sep-0

8

Dec-0

8

Mar-

09

Jun-0

9

Sep-0

9

Dec-0

9

$000/day

Collapse of Lehman Brothers

triggers global panic. Oil

prices fall sharply, stock

markets experience worst day

in 7 years.

US congress passes

bailout, markets

continue to plummet

US recession ends

0

10

20

30

40

29-N

ov-1

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06-D

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03-A

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10-A

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IMO 2020 introduced,

first Covid-19 cases

reported

WHO declares global

health emergency

Despite economic

uncertainty, oil market

contango & resulting

storage demand driving

tanker market spike

Year Avg. Index % change

2017 10,767 +14%

2018 12,144 +13%

2019 15,082 +24%

Improving markets since 2016.

Seasonal drop typically

seen in Q1.

Period $/day TrendDiff. to post-

2008 avg

10-Apr-20 18,635 Up 1% from start 2020 +53%

YTD avg 16,988 Up 48% y-o-y +39%


Weakest February output for > 15 years at Chinese yards, 70% of 2019 production in March globally

Shipbuilding: Weekly Shipyard Output By Country

13

Source: Clarksons Research. Provisional data as of 14th April 2020. Vessels of 1,000+ GT. 4 week moving averages as of week ending date shown.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

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m. dwtNo.

Deliveries (No., LHS)

Deliveries (m.dwt, RHS)

Global China

South Korea Japan

4 week moving

averages

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

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m. dwtNo.



4 week moving

averages

0.0

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1.0

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1.6

0

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m. dwtNo.



4 week moving

averages

0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0

0

2

4

6

8

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12

14

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2/2

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03/0

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4/2

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m. dwtNo.



4 week moving

averages


Annex Contents:

16

17. Covid-19 & SARS timeline

18. Covid-19 Crisis In Context

19. Impact On Major Economies

20. Key Chinese Economic Indicators

21. Chinese Sector Impacts, Recovery Status & Potential

22. Shipping Market Developments

23. Port Activity By Vessel Type (1)

24. Port Activity By Vessel Type (2)

25. Port Activity By Region

26. Coronavirus & OPEC: Oil & Tanker Market Impacts

27. Oil Demand Downgrades

28. Potential Oil Inventory Builds

29. Changing Fuel Mix & Price Dynamics

30. Tracking Ship Repair Activity

31. Marine Equipment: Supply Chain Disruption

32. Shipping Supply/Demand

33. Cruise Market Trends

34. Covid-19 Country Port Restrictions (1)

35. Covid-19 Country Port Restrictions (2)

36. Shipping Activity Indicators


Apr-03

Key Developments By Month

Covid-19 (2019-20) & SARS (2002-03) Timelines

17

Coronavirus Outbreak Timeline, 2019-20

SARS Outbreak Timeline, 2002-03

Nov-02 Dec-02 Mar-03

Nov 16:

The first case of an

unusual pneumonia

is reported in

Guangdong, China

Jan-03 Feb-03

Feb 10:

The number of infections

reaches 305, with 5 killed

Feb 26-28:

Cases reported in

Hong Kong and

Vietnam

Mar 10:

The new syndrome is

designated ‘SARS’

Apr 20:

The number of cases increases

to 339, with 402 suspected

cases. Schools are shut in

Beijing with strict quarantine

measures introduced.

Mar 12:

WHO issues a global

health alert

Apr 16:

WHO announces that the

causative agent of SARS

has been identified

Apr 27:

The number of cases rises

to 3,000. Theatres, cafes

etc closed in Beijing

May-03

May 23:

WHO lifts the ‘tourism

warning’ from Hong Kong

and Guangdong

May 24:

The number of newly infected cases

reaches zero in Hong Kong for the

first time since March

Jun-03

Jun 27:

WHO states that the

world population should

be SARS-free within the

next 2-3 weeks

Jul-03

Jul 5:

WHO declares the SARS

outbreak ‘contained’, with

no new cases for 20 days

May 23:

The global number of

cases reaches 8,000

globally, with over 750

deaths

Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20

Dec 31:

China alerts WHO to

several cases of

pneumonia in Wuhan

Jan 7:

China

announces the

identification of a

new virus,

“2019-nCoV”

Jan 11:

First death

reported

Jan 23:

Wuhan quarantined.

Beijing cancels

events for the Lunar

New Year.

Jan 30:

WHO declares

global health

emergency

Jan 27:

China extends Lunar

New Year holidays by

at least 3 days, some

regions extend holidays

up to 2 weeks.

Feb 3:

Chinese stock

markets fall by c.8%

on the first day of

trading after Lunar

New Year

Feb 9:

Death toll

exceeds SARS,

with 881 deaths

and 37,198

infections

Mar 11:

WHO declares

Global Pandemic

Feb 24:

Daily new cases

outside China (300)

exceed those in

China (220) for the

first time

Feb 28:

Global stocks &

commodities

markets fall

sharply on fears of

a global pandemic

Mar 6:

Global stocks

record their worst

week since the

2008 global

financial crisis

Mar 9:

Italy quarantines

16m citizens in

northern regions,

with 6,000 cases

and 366 deaths

Mar 10:

4,000 new daily

cases reported

outside of China; just

20 new cases

reported in China

Feb 22:

Italy reports first death & puts

northern towns into ‘lockdown’.

South Korea reports 100 new

cases & initiates emergency

measures

Apr-20

Apr 2:

Number of

confirmed

cases

exceeds 1m

globally

Mar 21:

EU suspends

rules on public

deficits

Mar 18:

China reports

no new cases

for the first

time since the

start of the

outbreak

Mar 27:

India

imposes

‘lockdown’

measures

Mar 25:

US agrees

$2tn

economic

stimulus deal

Apr 8:

Travel restrictions

lifted in Wuhan.

Confirmed deaths

due to Covid-19

exceeds 80,000

globally

Apr 7:

c.40% of world

population are

under some

degree of

‘lockdown’

measures.


Apr 16:

US reports highest

single-day death toll:

2,524.

Trump outlines

guidelines to ease

‘lockdown’

Apr 14:

The IMF

expects

global

GDP to

contract by

3% in 2020

Covid-19 Crisis In Context

18

Comparing the Covid-19 Crisis to the Global Financial Crisis of 2008

2020: Covid-19 Crisis 2008: Global Financial Crisis

World Economy ImpactMajor global recession expected in short-term.

Latest forecasts suggest 2020 GDP growth of -3.0%

Immediate impact, 2009 GDP Growth: -0.1%

Recovery in 2010 to 5.4%, 2011-15 steady at avg 3.7%

Pre-existing economic trendModerate growth rates in 2010s post-financial crisis

2019 GDP growth sluggish at 2.9%; 2015-19 avg 3.4%

Robust growth rates in upcycle of 2000s

Avg growth 2000-08: 4.3%

Chinese economyHas entered ‘mature’ growth phase

(2019: 22% of seaborne imports)

Still in ‘rapid growth’ phase

(2008: 12% of seaborne imports)

Seaborne Trade ImpactLatest 2020 seaborne trade growth estimate: -5.1% in

tonnes, -4.7% in tonne-miles

2009 seaborne trade growth: -4.6% (tonne-mile)

2010 stimulus-driven ‘bounceback’: 11.0%

Pre-existing seaborne trade trend2019 lowest since 2009: 1.0% tonne-mile, 0.5% tonnes

Subdued growth 2015-19: avg 2.9% (tonne-mile)

Robust growth through mid-2000s seaborne ‘boom’

Avg growth 2003-07: 5.4% (tonne-mile)

Orderbook & ShipbuildingStart 2020: 10% of fleet (GT)

364 active yards at start 2008

Sep-2008: 52% of fleet (GT)

930 active yards at start 2008

Finance

Better capitalized and more closely regulated banking

system; many traditional ship finance lenders exited,

Chinese leasing, ‘green finance’

Under-capitalized banking system; ship finance

dominated by traditional European lenders

‘Megatrend’: Trade‘Trade war’/protectionist trends, some re-shoring,

developing economies driving growth

Rapid globalization, outsourcing, China the key

growth driver

‘Megatrend’: EnvironmentEnvironmental concerns at head of global (pre-Covid)

agenda, decarbonization driving key industry trends

Fossil fuel consumption and trade growing;

environmental concerns evolving


10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

Jan 1

9

Fe

b 1

9

Mar

19

Apr

19

May 1

9

Jun 1

9

Jul 19

Aug 1

9

Sep 1

9

Oct 1

9

Nov 1

9

Dec 1

9

Jan 2

0

Fe

b 2

0

Mar

20

Apr

20

Tanker market spike, bulkcarriers under continued pressure, containerships falling back

Shipping Market Developments

22

Source: Clarksons Research.

Average Bulker Earnings, $/day

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

Jan 1

9

Fe

b 1

9

Mar

19

Apr

19

May 1

9

Jun 1

9

Jul 19

Aug 1

9

Sep 1

9

Oct 1

9

Nov 1

9

Dec 1

9

Jan 2

0

Fe

b 2

0

Mar

20

Apr

20

Global

pandemic

declared

Average Tanker Earnings, $/day

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

Jan 1

9

Fe

b 1

9

Mar

19

Apr

19

May 1

9

Jun 1

9

Jul 19

Aug 1

9

Sep 1

9

Oct 1

9

Nov 1

9

Dec 1

9

Jan 2

0

Fe

b 2

0

Mar

20

Apr

20

Global

pandemic

declared

Gas Carrier Earnings, $/day

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

Jan 1

9

Fe

b 1

9

Mar

19

Apr

19

May 1

9

Jun 1

9

Jul 19

Aug 1

9

Sep 1

9

Oct 1

9

Nov 1

9

Dec 1

9

Jan 2

0

Fe

b 2

0

Mar

20

Apr

20

LPG (VLGC Spot)

LNG (160k Spot)

Global

pandemic

declared

$/day % y-o-y % vs 10 yr trend

Latest 5,943 -28% -48%

YTD Avg 6,649 -19% -42%


Latest 50,792 333% 202%

YTD Avg 39,472 125% 135%


Latest 13,169 3% 33%

YTD Avg 14,593 21% 47%

Average Containership Earnings, $/day

YTD trend $/day % y-o-y % vs 10 yr trend

LPG 49,522 198% 39%

LNG 55,367 5% -26%


Global

pandemic

declared

Clear Covid-19 related downward trend in Ferry and Cruise

Source: Sea/net, Clarksons Research. Port calls defined as all instances of a vessel entering and leaving a defined port location, excluding instances where vessel not recorded as travelling at less than 1 knot, and combining multiple consecutive

instances at the same port where the vessel has not left a buffered shape around the port. Data basis date vessel first recorded in port location.

Covid-19: Tracking Port Activity By Vessel Type (2)

24

Global LNG Carrier Port Calls (No. Calls, 7dma) Global LPG Carrier Port Calls (No. Calls, 7dma)

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

01-J

an

08-J

an

15-J

an

22-J

an

29-J

an

05-F

eb

12-F

eb

19-F

eb

26-F

eb

05-M

ar

12-M

ar

19-M

ar

26-M

ar

02-A

pr

09-A

pr

16-A

pr

2019

2020

Latest date:

14th April 2020

0

50

100

150

200

250

01-J

an

08-J

an

15-J

an

22-J

an

29-J

an

05-F

eb

12-F

eb

19-F

eb

26-F

eb

05-M

ar

12-M

ar

19-M

ar

26-M

ar

02-A

pr

09-A

pr

16-A

pr

2019

2020

Latest date:

14th April 2020

Global Passenger Ferry Port Calls (No. Calls, 7dma) Global Cruise Port Calls (No. Calls, 7dma)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

01-J

an

08-J

an

15-J

an

22-J

an

29-J

an

05-F

eb

12-F

eb

19-F

eb

26-F

eb

05-M

ar

12-M

ar

19-M

ar

26-M

ar

02-A

pr

09-A

pr

16-A

pr

2019

2020

Latest date:

14th April 2020

150

200

250

300

01-J

an

08-J

an

15-J

an

22-J

an

29-J

an

05-F

eb

12-F

eb

19-F

eb

26-F

eb

05-M

ar

12-M

ar

19-M

ar

26-M

ar

02-A

pr

09-A

pr

16-A

pr

2019

2020

Latest date:

14th April 2020


Scrubber Retrofits: Tracking The Reported Slowdown In Activity

Source: Provisional data as of 14th April 2020. Data is estimated basis a range of sources include Clarksons Research, Sea/net AIS data. Data basis week starting date shown.

Tracking Ship Repair Activity

30

No. Vessels Entering/Leaving Repair Yards, Pre & Post-Scrubber Retrofit (Weekly)

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

07/0

1/2

019

14/0

1/2

019

21/0

1/2

019

28/0

1/2

019

04/0

2/2

019

11/0

2/2

019

18/0

2/2

019

25/0

2/2

019

04/0

3/2

019

11/0

3/2

019

18/0

3/2

019

25/0

3/2

019

01/0

4/2

019

08/0

4/2

019

15/0

4/2

019

22/0

4/2

019

29/0

4/2

019

06/0

5/2

019

13/0

5/2

019

20/0

5/2

019

27/0

5/2

019

03/0

6/2

019

10/0

6/2

019

17/0

6/2

019

24/0

6/2

019

01/0

7/2

019

08/0

7/2

019

15/0

7/2

019

22/0

7/2

019

29/0

7/2

019

05/0

8/2

019

12/0

8/2

019

19/0

8/2

019

26/0

8/2

019

02/0

9/2

019

09/0

9/2

019

16/0

9/2

019

23/0

9/2

019

30/0

9/2

019

07/1

0/2

019

14/1

0/2

019

21/1

0/2

019

28/1

0/2

019

04/1

1/2

019

11/1

1/2

019

18/1

1/2

019

25/1

1/2

019

02/1

2/2

019

09/1

2/2

019

16/1

2/2

019

23/1

2/2

019

30/1

2/2

019

06/0

1/2

020

13/0

1/2

020

20/0

1/2

020

27/0

1/2

020

03/0

2/2

020

10/0

2/2

020

17/0

2/2

020

24/0

2/2

020

02/0

3/2

020

09/0

3/2

020

16/0

3/2

020

23/0

3/2

020

30/0

3/2

020

06/0

4/2

020

Other

China

Repair Yard

LocationVessels Entering

Repair Yards

Vessels Leaving

Repair Yards

Slower Than Expected

Pick-up Post-Lunar

New Year

Slowdown As

Expected Prior to

Lunar New Year


More Vessels Now Leaving Yards

Following Completed Retrofits,

But Few Entering

Disclaimer

The material and the information (including, without limitation, any future rates and/or forward looking predictions) contained herein (together, the "Information") are

provided by Clarkson Research Services Limited ("Clarksons Research") for general guidance and not by way of recommendation. The Information is provided on "as

is" and “as available” basis. Clarksons Research and all its Group companies make no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied about the

completeness, accuracy, reliability, suitability or availability with respect to the Information. Any reliance placed on such Information is therefore strictly at the

recipient's own risk and no responsibility is accepted for any loss or damage howsoever arising. Please note that future rates and/or forward looking predictions are

for illustration purposes only and given without guarantee; the ultimate outcome may be different.

This Information is not for reproduction or distribution without Clarksons Research’s prior written consent. Especially, the Information is not to be used in any

document for the purposes of raising finance whether by way of debt or equity. All intellectual property rights are fully reserved by Clarksons Research, its Group

companies and/or its licensors.

This disclaimer shall be governed by and construed in accordance with English law.

CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD, COMMODITY QUAY, ST KATHARINE DOCKS, LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM, E1W 1BF

Clarksons Research

37Covid-19: Shipping Impact Assessment | April 2020 Update No. 5

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