COVID-19 Market UpdateE c o n o m i c & I n d u s t r y I n s i g h t s Te a m

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COVID-19 STATE IMPACT VARIES PER COUNTY (CASES AND PER CAPITA CONCENTRATION)

Source: CDC 2

WEEKLY INITIAL CLAIMS HIT RECORD LEVELS

Source: U.S. Department of Labor 3

CONSUMER SENTIMENT PEAKED IN FEBRUARY, DECLINED STEEPLY IN MARCH

Source: Morning Consult 4

Morning Consult’s Index of Consumer Sentiment on Monday was down 22% since March 1

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ICS Value (7-day average)

1/3 OF SHOPPERS NOW ANTICIPATE VEHICLE PURCHASE DELAY; MAJORITY LOOKING FOR ALTERNATIVES TO AVOID VISITING DEALERSHIPS IN-PERSON

Source: 2020 Cox Automotive COVID-19 Consumer Impact Study 5

Delaying Vehicle Purchase/Lease* Impact on Likelihood to

Visit the Dealership*

*Among 6-month auto intendersQ10. Have you done, or do you think you will do any of the following because of the coronavirus? *Note: Added “have done” in Wave 4 Q15. How, if at all, would the spread of coronavirus impact your likelihood to visit a car dealership in-person?.

7%17%

28% 35%

March 5-6 March 13-14 March 20-22 March 27-28

17% 17% 17% 16%

52% 47%28% 29%

31% 37%55% 55%

March 5-6 March 13-14 March 20-22 March 27-28

Not sure No impact Much/Somewhat less likely↑

↑

OVER 1/3 OF OWNERS ARE NOW LOOKING TO DELAY VEHICLE SERVICE OR MAINTENANCE

Source: 2020 Cox Automotive COVID-19 Consumer Impact Study 6

Delay Vehicle Service/Repair(% consumers that said “Yes”)

5%13%

29%37%

March 5-6 March 13-14 March 20-22 March 27-28

↑

↑

Q10. Do you think you will do any of the following over the next few months because of the coronavirus? *Note: Added “have done” in Wave 4 Q18a. You said you have delayed or may delay taking your vehicle in for service/maintenance. What makes you say that?.

*Among vehicle owners

Top Reasons for Delaying Service(among those who would delay)

62% Concerned about having contact with staff/other people

65% Prefer to stay home/under quarantine

34% Concerned about the cost/my financial situation

19% Preferred using service location that is not open for business

↑

INTEREST RATES HAVE BEEN VOLATILE BUT NOT CONSISTENTLY LOWER

Source: US Federal Reserve, Dealertrack 7

Average auto loan not reflecting big decline in rates

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Subp

rime

%

10-Year Treasury Superprime - New Subprime - New

RETAIL TREND ESTIMATE - NEW

Source: Cox Automotive 8

-63.5%

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DAILY NEW RETAIL % CHG YoY vs SAME DAY OF WEEK

YoY % Chg 2019 YoY % Chg 2020

RETAIL TREND ESTIMATE - USED

Source: Cox Automotive 9

-50.4%

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DAILY USED RETAIL % CHG YoY vs SAME DAY OF WEEK

YoY % Chg 2019 YoY % Chg 2020

2020 WEEKLY PRICE TREND CONTINUES DOWNARD CHANGE

Source: Cox Automotive 10

Stable beginning of 2020 and strong start of spring bounce; week 11 was the peak, and prices fell 0.6% in aggregate last week

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3-Year-Old Model MMR Index by Week2014-2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

LEADING INDICATORS AND OUTLOOK

Source: Cox Automotive 11

Shopping took a big hit two weeks ago but started to improve in the middle of last week.Autotrader and Kelley Blue Book saw key traffic metrics improve this past weekend over the prior weekend.Dealer.com saw continued deceleration in traffic is now almost recovered in New Vehicle Detail Page Views.

Shoppers are returning and looking at cars, and new vehicle incentives are working!

Same-store unique credit applications were down 57% y/y last week; trending has been getting worse.

The impact of the immediate downturn will see vehicle sales fall over the next few months but could recover later in the year. The impact of the immediate downturn will see new vehicle sales fall below 16 million in 2020 and used fall below 38 million. If the shutdowns last longer, new vehicle sales could fall to 14 million or less for the full year and used could fall to 36 million.

Xtime saw 59% decrease y/y on Saturday in consumers having their cars serviced

COMPARISON TO THE GREAT RECESSION: DECEMBER 2007 – JUNE 2009

Source: BEA, The University of Michigan 12

Consumer sentiment almost always leads in sharp downturns and in the recoveries that follow

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New Vehicle SAAR

SAAR Confidence

Consumer Sentiment

Cash For Clunkers

SEGMENT VULNERABILITY GRID

Source: Cox Automotive/KBB Data CY2019 13

High Prices Impacted By Economic Loss, High APR Customers Impacted By Credit Tightening

“GUARANTEED DEMAND” EXPIRING LEASES PROVIDE SALES OPPORTUNITY

Source: Cox Automotive/KBB Data CY2019 14

Volume lease OEMs will peak over summer months – successful transition critical

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HONDA

CHEVROLETFORD

NISSANJE

EP

HYUNDAI

VOLKSWAGEN KIA

SUBARUGMC

MAZDARAM

DODGE

CHRYSLER

Expiring Lease CY2020

January February March April May June July August September October November December

2020 = 4.1 Million Maturities

Consistent 340K per month