COVID-19 hospitalizations in New Mexico · 2020. 8. 4. · 1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe,...
Transcript of COVID-19 hospitalizations in New Mexico · 2020. 8. 4. · 1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe,...
![Page 1: COVID-19 hospitalizations in New Mexico · 2020. 8. 4. · 1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505 -827-2613 • Fax: 505 -827-2530 • nmhealth.org COVID-19](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022071110/5fe5a08b88f0ec2c0f0dd13a/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 in New Mexico: Epidemiologic and Modeling
UpdateAugust 4, 2020
![Page 2: COVID-19 hospitalizations in New Mexico · 2020. 8. 4. · 1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505 -827-2613 • Fax: 505 -827-2530 • nmhealth.org COVID-19](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022071110/5fe5a08b88f0ec2c0f0dd13a/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
New Mexico has the 31st highest prevalence in the United States
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 prevalence per 100,000 population
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 8.2.2020, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.
17.2
9.712.2
19.7
15.814.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Case
s pe
r 100
,000
Pop
ulat
ion
New cases (Last 7 days) – July 28
31.4
7.1
9.5
20.0
12.013.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35The NW Region 7-day rate includes the recent outbreak in Cibola County Correctional Center.
New cases (Last 7 days) – August 3
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Statewide R-effective has decreased to 0.9.
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – August 3, 2020.
0.9
![Page 5: COVID-19 hospitalizations in New Mexico · 2020. 8. 4. · 1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505 -827-2613 • Fax: 505 -827-2530 • nmhealth.org COVID-19](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022071110/5fe5a08b88f0ec2c0f0dd13a/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 8.4.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
New Mexico COVID-19 Cases by Date of Specimen Collection – 8/4/20
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
![Page 6: COVID-19 hospitalizations in New Mexico · 2020. 8. 4. · 1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505 -827-2613 • Fax: 505 -827-2530 • nmhealth.org COVID-19](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022071110/5fe5a08b88f0ec2c0f0dd13a/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Northeast R_effective 0.8↓
MetroR_effective 0.8↓
Southeast R_effective 1.1 ↓
SouthwestR_effective 0.7 ↓
NorthwestR_effective 1.0 ↓
Low Level Endemic <1.0
Approaching Low Level Endemic1.0-1.05
Requiring further mitigation >1.05
Key
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – August 3, 2020.
As of July 28, 2020
Region R-effective 95% Confidence Interval
State 0.9 [0.5, 1.3]
Metro 0.8 [0.2, 1.4]
Northeast 0.8 [0.0, 2.5]
Northwest 1.0 [0.2, 2.0]
Southeast 1.1 [0.2, 1.9]
Southwest 0.7 [0.0, 1.6]
![Page 7: COVID-19 hospitalizations in New Mexico · 2020. 8. 4. · 1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505 -827-2613 • Fax: 505 -827-2530 • nmhealth.org COVID-19](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022071110/5fe5a08b88f0ec2c0f0dd13a/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
The Northwest, Metro, Northeast, and Southwest relative growth rate have dropped below 0.
↑ Increasing case counts
↓ Decreasing case counts
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – August 3, 2020.
![Page 8: COVID-19 hospitalizations in New Mexico · 2020. 8. 4. · 1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505 -827-2613 • Fax: 505 -827-2530 • nmhealth.org COVID-19](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022071110/5fe5a08b88f0ec2c0f0dd13a/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 8.4.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Metro Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving AverageAugust 4, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
![Page 9: COVID-19 hospitalizations in New Mexico · 2020. 8. 4. · 1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505 -827-2613 • Fax: 505 -827-2530 • nmhealth.org COVID-19](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022071110/5fe5a08b88f0ec2c0f0dd13a/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 8.4.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Northeast Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving AverageAugust 4, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
![Page 10: COVID-19 hospitalizations in New Mexico · 2020. 8. 4. · 1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505 -827-2613 • Fax: 505 -827-2530 • nmhealth.org COVID-19](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022071110/5fe5a08b88f0ec2c0f0dd13a/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 8.4.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Northwest Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving AverageAugust 4, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
![Page 11: COVID-19 hospitalizations in New Mexico · 2020. 8. 4. · 1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505 -827-2613 • Fax: 505 -827-2530 • nmhealth.org COVID-19](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022071110/5fe5a08b88f0ec2c0f0dd13a/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 8.4.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7 day moving average
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Southeast Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving AverageAugust 4, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 7.21.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
0
50
100
150
200
250
Southwest Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving AverageAugust 4, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
7 day moving average
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Visits to restaurants and community gatherings has decreased among cases. Travel remains high.
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 8.4.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
As of July 31, 2020
Hospitalizations are beginning to decrease. As of 8/3, ventilator use is at 22%.
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Weekly hospitalizations may be beginning to increase in the NW region, decrease in the Metro region, and plateau in the NE region.
Hospitalizations may not yet be reported.
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Sharp increase in deaths two weeks ago, but decreased last week
2
9
19
33
43
67 66
60
45 46
35 33 31
2023 23
26
41
20
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Num
ber o
f Dea
ths
COVID-19 Deaths by Week of Death, New Mexico
Reporting through 7/31/2020
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Since last week, COVID-19 age-adjusted case fatality rates have decreased in the NW, Metro, and SE regions, but increased in the SW region
Note: Age-adjusted case fatality rates are adjusted to the current distribution of U.S. COVID-19 cases on 8/2. https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/index.html#demographicsCDC age group categories differ from those previously reported, so the age-adjusted rates for NM are not comparable to previously produced rates.Source: Bureau of Vital Records and Health Statistics and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division, reporting through 8.2.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
6.3%
1.3%
3.5%
1.1%
2.7%
4.3%
3.3%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Northwest Northeast Metro Southeast Southwest New Mexico U.S.
Case
Fat
ality
Rat
e (a
ge-a
djus
ted)
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
New Mexico Status Updates
• Case count: Statewide, the increase in daily case counts are declining.
• Hospitalizations: After a period of increase in July, hospitalizations are decreasing.
• Deaths: There was a spike in deaths two weeks ago, but decreased last week
• Social distancing: Cell phone data suggests the mobility of New Mexico residents has been stable, but this varies by region.
• Contact tracing: The median time to quarantine for contacts identified last week was 2 days.
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1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Supplementary Slides
![Page 20: COVID-19 hospitalizations in New Mexico · 2020. 8. 4. · 1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505 -827-2613 • Fax: 505 -827-2530 • nmhealth.org COVID-19](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022071110/5fe5a08b88f0ec2c0f0dd13a/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Modeling Assumptions
Variable Measured Value Value as of 8.3.20
R_Effective Actual Measured Daily Value by key county
R_eff=0.9
Positive Test Multiplier Calculated by LANL 4.4
Hospitalization and Mortality Actual rolling value / estimated number of total infected
Medical 0.22% ICU 0.15%Vent Rate 54% of ICUCrude Case Fatality Rate 4.4%
Length of Stay Actual rolling value / estimated number of total infected
Medical 5 daysICU 14 days ICU on Vent 14 days