COVID-19 AND FAMILIES’ FINANCIAL SECURITY*...COVID-19 AND FAMILIES’ FINANCIAL SECURITY* Neil...
Transcript of COVID-19 AND FAMILIES’ FINANCIAL SECURITY*...COVID-19 AND FAMILIES’ FINANCIAL SECURITY* Neil...
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COVID-19 AND FAMILIES’ FINANCIAL SECURITY*
Neil Bhutta Jackie Blair Lisa Dettling Kevin Moore
*The analysis and conclusions set forth are those of the authors and do not
reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors
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MOTIVATION
• COVID-19 pandemic has led to widespread job losses
• 20+ million lost jobs, unemployment rate of 14.7% in April
• How financially prepared are families to deal with income
shortfalls?
• Who can maintain their normal expenses (for how long)?
• Our question: who has the financial resources to cover 3-6
months of their own expenses in…
• Liquid savings
• Potential cash assistance provided by CARES Act
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WHAT WE DO
• 2016 Survey of Consumer Finances
• Nationally representative survey of household wealth
• Detailed information on household balance sheets, income sources,
expenses, employment, and family structure
• Can families cover their normal, recurring expenses?
• Mortgage, rent, car loans/leases, unsecured debt payments, food, etc.
• Does not include discretionary or durables spending
• Who has sufficient liquid savings to cover monthly expenses?
• Checking, savings, directly held equities, mutual funds, cash, prepaid
cards, currently received DC pensions
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CASH ASSISTANCE IN THE CARES ACT
• If a family loses their job(s), can expected unemployment
insurance benefits cover expenses?
• Use state-level benefit formulas to estimate potential UI benefit
• CARES Act expands UI benefit levels dramatically for 4 months
• Adds $600/week to standard benefits
• Increases eligibility (e.g., self-employed)
• What if we further add expected recovery payments?
• One-time payment based on income and family size
• $1200/adult and $500/child
• Phase-out above AGI $75k ($150k joint)
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Without cash assistance, 42 percent of families could
cover three months’ expenses using liquid savings if
they were to lose their job …
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Standard UI benefit formulas allow another 15 percent
of families could cover three months’ expenses…
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CARES Act UI expansions allow another 26 percent of
families to cover three months’ expenses…
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Adding in the CARES Act recovery payments, 85
percent of families could cover three months’ expenses
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NOT ALL FAMILIES FACE THE SAME RISK OF JOB LOSS
• Matched data on industry-specific UI claims as a share of employment through 4/11/20
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PATTERNS HOLD FOR SIX MONTHS AS WELL
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• CARES UI expansions expires after 4 months
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HOUSING STATUS
• Home-owners with a mortgage might also choose to use forbearance
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RACE/ETHNICITY FAMILY STRUCTURE
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DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS
Percent of families with three months of expenses in…
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VALUE OF CARES ACT CASH ASSISTANCE
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CONCLUDING THOUGHTS
• CARES Act should allow most families to cover their own normal,
recurring expenses in the near term (3-6 months)
• Expanded UI benefits are most valuable aspect of CARES Act, and are
temporary
• Expanded benefits will expire in 4 months
• Max duration for UI was extended to 9 months
• We do not study other aspects of CARES Act which could reduce
expenses or increase liquidity:
• Mortgage forbearance, student loan deferment, easier access to DC
retirement account savings, PPP loan program
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EXTRAS
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UI CLAIMS AS OF APRIL 11
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FULL DISTRIBUTION OF SAVINGS BY MONTHS OF EXPENSES
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OTHER SAVINGS: QUASI-LIQUID SAVINGS AND HOUSING
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ASSET CATEGORIZATION
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Liquid Quasi-Liquid Illiquid
1. Checking accounts
2. Savings accounts
3. Money market
accounts
4. Cash
5. Prepaid cards
6. Directly held stocks
7. Directly held bonds
8. Directly held mutual
funds
1. Account-type
retirement plans (401k
and IRAs)
2. Certificates of deposit
3. Savings bonds
4. Cash-value life
insurance
1. Residential real estate
2. Non-residential real
estate
3. Thrift plans
4. Pensions
5. Account-type
retirement plans (401k
and IRAs)
6. Certificates of deposit
7. Savings bonds
8. Cash-value life
insurance