COUPLED MODELING Purpose: Review where the various centers are with their ocean models, how they got...
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COUPLED MODELING
Purpose: Review where the various centers are with their ocean models, how they got there, and outline the major outstanding issues.
CMIP5 model and simulation documentations will be much more comprehensive and complete: - standard vocabulary to describe models and simulations, - interactive web-based questionnaire to provide information, - information in a searchable data base linked to the model outputs.
Two groups are collaborating: Metafor (E. Guilyardi) and Earth System Curator (V. Balaji, C. DeLuca)
CMIP5 Long-term Experiments
Coupled carbon-cycle climate models only
All simulations are forced by prescribed concentrations except those “E-driven” (i.e., emission-driven).
D & A
ensembles
Control, AMIP, &
20 C
RCP4.5, RCP8.5
ensembles: AMIP & 20 C
natural-only,
GHG-only
individual
forcing
RCP2.X, RCP6
extend RCP4.5 to
2300 extend RCP8.5 & RCP2.X to
2300
ense
mbl
e of
ab
rupt
4xC
O 2 5
-yr
runs
aqua planet
(clouds)
unform ΔSST
(clouds)
Mid
-Hol
ocen
e &
LG
M
last
mill
enni
um
E-driven RCP8.5
E-driven control & 20 C
patterned
ΔSST
(clouds)
aerosol forcing ca.
2000
AC&C4
(chemistry)
1%/yr CO2 (140 yrs)
abrupt 4XCO2 (150 yrs)
fixed SST with 1x & 4xCO2
radiation code sees 1xCO2 (1% or 20C+RCP4.5)
carbon cycle sees 1XCO2 (1% or 20C+RCP4.5)
Core: ≥1718 yrsTier 1: ≥1727 yrsTier 2: ≥2038 yrs
K. Taylor
CMIP5 Decadal Prediction Experiments
additional predictions Initialized in
‘01, ’02, ’03 … ’09100-yr “control”
& 1% CO2
prediction with 2010 Pinatubo-
like eruption
alternative initialization
strategies
atmos. chemistry
&/or aerosols &/or
regional air quality
AMIP
increase
ensemble siz
es
from O
(3) to
O(10) members
hindc
asts
without
volca
noes
30-year hindcast and prediction ensembles:
initialized 1960, 1980 & 2005
10-year hindcast & prediction ensembles: initialized 1960, 1965, …,
2005
Core: 480 yrsTier 1: ≥1700 yrs
K. Taylor
CMIP5 Atmosphere-Only Experiments(targeted for computationally demanding and NWP models)
AMIP(1979-2008)
AMIP
ensemble
AMIP
SSTs
with
4XCO 2
aqua planet
(clouds)
uniform ΔSST
(clouds)
patterned ΔSST
(clouds)
future “time-slice”(2026-2035)
Future “time-slice”
ensemble
Core: 40 yrsTier 1: ≥185 yrsTier 2: 30 yrs
K. Taylor
CMIP5 TIMELINE (WGCM-13)
• Now / a few months ago: Centers are ready to start their simulations,
• Summer 2010: Data analysis,
• December 2010: Model output available to public,
• May 2011: Journal articles accepted (submitted??),
• Spring 2013: IPCC AR5 published.
CMIP5 participating groups (21?)
Primary Group
Country Primary Contact
NERSC Norway M. Bentsen, H. Drange
Hadley Centre U.K. M. Collins, C. Jones
GFDL U.S.A.T. Delworth, I. Held, L. Horowitz, R. Stouffer
IPSL & LMD France J-L. Dufresne, S. Bony
NIES & U. Tokyo,
JapanS. Emori, M. Kawamiya,
M. Kimoto,
CCCMA Canada G. Flato
MPI Germany M. Giorgetta
INGV Italy S. Gualdi
EC-Earth consortium
Europe W. Hazeleger
CSIRO & BMRC
Australia T. Hirst, K. Puri
NASA GSFC U.S.A. M. Suarez
Primary Group
Country Primary Contact
CSIRO & QCCCE
AustraliaL. Rotstayn, J. Syktus, S.
Jeffrey
NCAR U.S.A. J. Hurrell, J. Meehl
MRI Japan M. Kimoto
METRI (with Hadley Centre)
Korea W-T. Kwon
LASG IAP China T. Zhou, B. Wang
NASA GISS U.S.A. G. Schmidt
BCC ChinaQ. Li, Y. You, Z. Wang, T.
Wu, Y. Xu,
INM Russia E. Volodin
CERFACS & CNRM
France L. Terray, D. Salas-Melia
U. Reading U.K. L. Shaffrey
K. Taylor
Center Ocean Model
Resolution Physics Carbon Cycle
Comments
CSIRO/BMRC
MOM4p1 Nominal 1o L46 / z* / enhanced tropical and SH resolution
GM, Redi, KPP, Smag. visc., Rahmstorf conv.
No Under development, aim for core LT exp.
CSIRO/QCCCE
MOM2.2 1.875ox0.84oxL31 / Island at NP
GM, Redi, integer power vert. mixing, Kraus-Turner, VSF
No Slowly equilibrating 1850, core LT only
CCCma NCOM 1.4ox0.94oxL40 GM, Redi, KPP, anisotropic visc., tidal
Off-line spinup 5000 yrs
All
EC-Earth NEMOv2 Nominal 1o x L42 ORCA1 setup: quasi-pure isopycnal?, TKE vert. mixing, Lap. hor. visc.
No ~250 yr spinup, 1960-2008 ocean reanaly. ready, All
NERSC Modified MICOM
1.125o x L51 Eden & Greatbatch, Oberhuber ML depth, sub-meso, Smag. visc., tidal
Yes, spinup just underway
Only LT exp., about to start?
Center Ocean Model
Resolution Physics Carbon Cycle
Comments
MRI MRI.COM 1ox0.5oxL50 / tripole
GM, Redi, Noh & Kim vert. mixing, anisotropic Smag. visc., tidal, BBL
spunup 1850 control is just starting, LT and DP exp.
LASG IAP LICOM Nominal 1o x L30 GM, Redi, Canuto et al. vert. mixing, large diffusivity values?
? All, except time slice
BCC MOM4 L40 ? ? As many as possible
BNU MOM4 ? ? ? Appears rather preliminary
INGV OPA8.2/ORCA2
? ? Yes T159 for DP, T31 for LT
Limited information from GISS, INM, IPSL, and Meteo-France
Center Ocean Model
Resolution Physics Carbon Cycle
Comments
NCAR POP2 1.125ox0.3-0.5oxL60 / displaced NP
GM, Redi, KPP, anisotropic hor. viscosity, overflow param., sub-meso, tidal
Spunup > 1000 yrs
Integrations are underway, most LT and DP
GFDL MOM4.1MOM4.1GOLD
Z (DP)Z* (LT)Isopycnal (LT)
Hadley Centre
HadGEM2-ESHadCM3HiGEM
1ox1/3o-1o (LT)
1/3ox1/3oxL40 (DP)
GM, Redi, hor. viscosity (Lap. & Bihar.), Kraus-Turner and Peters et al. vertical mixing / modified coeff. & bihar. (DP)
Yes LT and DP
MPI MPIOM 1oxL40 (LT)0.4oxL80 (DP, 20C), tripole
GM, Redi, PP vert. mixing, BBL, tidal
Spunup with 3oxL40 3000 yrs
In preparation, efficiency issues on new machine
SUMMARY• Model readiness and participation in either coupled
carbon cycle experiments or experiment sets vary considerably,
• 1850 control integrations, except Hadley Centre (1860),
• Mostly level coordinate models with nominal 1o horizontal resolutions,
• Redi and GM for tracer mixing are rather uniform, but there are significant differences in diffusivity coefficient choices, e.g., constant, spatially varying, (un)equal thickness and isopycnal, etc.,
• There appears to be some increase in the use of tidal mixing parameterization,
• Vertical mixing scheme as well as horizontal viscosity choices vary.
Center Major outstanding ocean model issues / biases
Plans for addressing these & other ocean model improvements
CSIRO/BMRC Warm SST bias globally, low Arctic summer sea ice, too diffusive equatorial thermocline
Tune ocean-ice coupling, explore vertical mixing schemes, explore tuning of IT through Rayleigh linear damping
CSIRO/QCCCE Aware of some model biases No further work to address these with this particular model
CCCma SST and SSS biases, high ACC transport
Switch to a different model
EC-Earth TOM is 0.4 Wm-2, but little model drift, too cool SSTs in the tropics, too warm at high latitudes particularly in the SO, not much sea ice, deep water is cold, too much LSW water and not enough Nordic Sea water
Switch to NEMOv3,Implement biogeochemistry
NERSC Large AMOC and heat transport concerns, strong positive SSS anomaly in the Arctic, some problems with the diffusivity coefficients
Abandon Leap-Frog scheme, eliminate virtual salt fluxes, handle floating ice shelves, conform to the new EOS, change grid staggering
Center Major outstanding ocean model issues / biases
Plans for addressing these & other ocean model improvements
MRI Warm Antarctic bottom water, overshooting WBCs, O2 is too high in the northern Indian Ocean
Increase horizontal resolution to eddy permitting, couple to a wave model, include iron in biogeochemistry
LASG IAP Too much ice
INGV Cold SSTs in the mid-latitude Pacific and Atlantic
MPI Biases in subsurface T & S, too much horizontal mixing in the upper layers of the Med. Outflow, OMZ problem (appears to be resolution dependent)
Working on BBL scheme details, implementation of modified sea-ice thermodynamics, mixing due to internal tides
Hadley Centre OMZ problems (negative), coupling dust and interactive vegetation challenges, too much production in the Equatorial Pacific, issues with vertical profile of tracer diffusivity
Switch to NEMO
Ocean model biases in preliminary CanCM4 20th century run (no carbon cycle)
Differences are between 1980-1999 average and Levitus/PHC climatology
SST SSS
B. Merryfield
Sea Surface Temperature from CCSM41850 control 20th Century
Center Major outstanding ocean model issues / biases
Plans for addressing these & other ocean model improvements
NCAR
GFDL
CMIP5: Three Suites of Experiments
“Long-Term”(century & longer)
TIER 1
TIER 2
CORE
evaluation& projection
diagnosis
“Near-Term”(decadal prediction)
(initialized ocean state)
hindcasts & forecasts
CORE
TIER 1
TIER 2
TIER 1
AMIP
“time-slice”
CORE
Atmosphere-Only
(for computationally demanding and NWP models)
TIER 1
TIER 2