COUNTRY RISK PANORAMA“регорж_Шилевич.pdf · COUNTRY RISK PANORAMA GRZEGORZ SIELEWICZ...
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COUNTRY RISK PANORAMA
GRZEGORZ SIELEWICZ
Economist Central & Eastern Europe
6th Coface Country Risk Conference
Sofia, 12th April 2018
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ACCELERATING GLOBAL GROWTH
Composite PMI index
Source: Coface, Markit
GDP growth
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EVEN FEWER INSOLVENCIES WITHIN ADVANCED ECONOMIES IN 2018, BUT THE MOVEMENT IS DRYING UP
Coface forecast, national sources
-6%
-2%
-6%
0%-2%
-4% -4%
-2%
-4%-5%
-3%-5%
1%
-1%-3% -3%
3%2%
10%
-1,8%
0%
-3% -3%-1%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Neth
erl
an
ds
Po
rtu
gal
Icela
nd
Au
str
alia
Italy
Fin
lan
d
Sin
gap
ore
Fra
nce
Germ
an
y
Can
ad
a
US
Sp
ain
Den
mark
Jap
an
Taiw
an
No
rway
Sw
ed
en
Belg
ium
UK
Ad
v. eco
.
Eu
rop
e
Eu
rozo
ne
No
rth
Am
.
Asia
Pac.
2017 (f)
2018 (f)
Corporate insolvencies in advanced economies: Coface growth forecasts
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EUROZONE: BUSINESSES STILL HAVE WORRIES, BUT NOT THE SAME…
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17
Eurozone: Business climate index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000-Q
1
2001-Q
1
2002-Q
1
2003-Q
1
2004-Q
1
2005-Q
1
2006-Q
1
2007-Q
1
2008-Q
1
2009-Q
1
2010-Q
1
2011-Q
1
2012-Q
1
2013-Q
1
2014-Q
1
2015-Q
1
2016-Q
1
2017-Q
1
Demand
Labour
Businesses in the Eurozone: Factors limiting production (%)
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EUROPE: LABOUR MARKET DEVELOPMENTS ARE A CONCERN FOR CORPORATES
Level of capacity utilisation (%)
Job vacancy rates (%)
Source: Eurostat
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RECOVERY OF EMERGING ECONOMIES: STRONGER AND MORE SYNCHRONISED IN 2018
Source: Coface, IMF
1.2
7.2
5.9
4.7 4.74.2
3.7 3.9
4.44.6
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017(f
)
2018(f
)
1 standard deviation Level
Growth of emerging countries (%, Coface forecasts)
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Pharma
Chemical
Wood
Transport
Paper
Energy
Textile
Construction
Retail
Auto
ITC
Agro
Metals
Upgrades
Downgrades
Emerging countries: number of Coface sector assessment changes in 2017
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WORLD TRADE: THE PROTECTIONIST RISK IS SLOW TO MATERIALISE
World trade: Coface growth forecasts
Net number of measures negatively affecting international trade worldwide
Source: GTA, Coface
7.0%
1.5%
4.4%
3.7%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Average2002-2007
2016 2017 (f) 2018 (f)
123 125171
203145 151
81 59105
519
282
307
377453
347
394
315178
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Rest of the world
US
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US: STEEL AND ALUMINUM TARIFFS
US: Direct consumption of primary metals by sector
Source: TradeMap, Oxford Economics, Coface
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THREAT OF TRADE WAR
US: Products with the largest surplus/deficit with China (Top-10)
Share of particular product exports to the US
Source: UN Comtrade, Coface
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WHO ARE THE WINNERS OF THE REBOUND IN GLOBAL TRADE?
Source: Eurostat, BIS, Coface
Emerging countries: price competitiveness and exports
Real effective exchange rate
% change since January 2008
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CEE: SOLID GROWTH STILL ON CARDS
Source: Eurostat, Coface
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CEE: ONGOING IMPROVEMENT OF THE LABOUR MARKET AMID MODERATE INFLATION
Inflation (%, HICP, y/y)
Source: Eurostat
Unemployment rate (%)
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CHINA: SMALL-SIZED BANKS ARE ON THE FRONT LINE
China: New credits (in trillion RMB)
6,2 6,3
8,1
1,5 1,9
0,8
4,95,2
4,9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2014 2015 2016
Shadow credit (small and medium sized banks)
Shadow credit (Big 5 banks)
Traditional loans
Source: Coface, IMF
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CHINA PAYMENT SURVEY: IMPROVEMENT HIDES TAIL RISKS
China: Evolution of payment delays relative to 12 months ago
China: Ratio of ultra-long payment delays as a % of turnover
Source: Coface Payment Survey
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EMERGING COUNTRIES: RECOVERY NIPPED IN THE BUD BY POLITICAL RISKS?
Source: Coface
Coface Index: Risk of Social Turmoil
Final Score Elections in 2018
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COFACE COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENTS
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COFACE SECTOR RISK ASSESSMENTS