This report provides an update to the July 2010 FEWS NET Food Security Outlook report which estimated food security conditions in Burkina Faso through December 2010. The next Outlook report will be released in October and will cover the October 2010 to March 2011 period.

FEWS NET Burkina Faso Ouagadougou Tel: +226 50-36-88-36 msy@fews.net

FEWS NET Washington 1717 H St NW Washington DC 20006 info@fews.net

FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.

www.fews.net/burkina

BURKINA FASO Food Security Outlook Update August 2010

Flooding continues in food insecure areas

Key Messages • 100,000 residents have been affected by flooding in

livelihood zone 7 (northern and eastern livestock and cereals), livelihood zone 8 (northern transhumant pastoralism and millet), and livelihood 5 (central plateau cereals and market gardening). The hardest hit area is livelihood zone 7, where 11 percent of the population of the Gnagna province is in distress. While a minority, these people have lost a large portion of their assets (homes, remaining food reserves, livestock, and small dams for market gardening activities), and they will be dependent on emergency food aid, family gifts, and gainful employment for food supplies. This year, some of these households will resort to negative coping strategies and will be facing food shortages by next March or April, until the harvesting of fresh crops in September of next year. Even in the face of current flooding problems, which are lasting longer than expected, there is still no major change in the most likely food security scenario.

• Around 500,000 people are food insecure in the areas of

concern following the poor previous growing season. This is more than twice as many food insecure people than the typical year. As projected in the July Outlook, there has been a slight deterioration in the ability to access food for this population. Prices have increased, as is typical during the lean season, steepening since July with the added demand during Ramadan, particularly for millet.

Updated food security outlook through December 2010 The most likely food security scenario for livelihood zones 7 (northern and eastern livestock and cereals), 8 (northern transhumant pastoralism and millet), and 5 (central plateau cereals and market gardening) is continuing with a pattern of above-normal rainfall creating localized flooding problems. Relief efforts for the 13,193 flood-stricken households in these areas are being coordinated by the government with the help of its technical and financial partners. So far this flooding has not significantly affected any major crop-producing areas in the western reaches of the country and is having a positive effect on harvest forecasts for the off-season between November/December and March/April. Projected nationwide grain production could exceed the average of approximately 3,700,000 MT. However, current flooding

Figure 1. Most likely food security outcomes, August-September 2010

Source: FEWS NET

Figure 2. Most likely food security outcomes, October-December 2010

Source: FEWS NET

For more information on FEWS NET’s Food Insecurity Severity Scale, please see: www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale

BURKINA FASO Food Security Outlook Update August 2010

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2

problems are limiting the physical and economic access of poor and very poor households to local grain markets. With the ongoing observance of Ramadan and despite their stabilizing effect, the extension of government-subsidized grain marketing programs failed to prevent the 8-12 percent hike in prices for local millet crops on reference markets between June and July as projected in the July Outlook. Though up slightly in reference markets in these areas, the selling price of a whole Sahelian goat in good condition, which is a major source of income for poor households at this time of year, particularly in the case of flood-stricken households, is still less than the cost of a sack of millet. Certain households in livelihood zone 8 (northern transhumant pastoralism and millet) in the far northern reaches of the country are facing food insecurity due to the smaller than usual 2009/10 grain harvest and the current flooding problems in the area. There are reportedly 19,000 flood victims in this livelihood zone. According to national weather forecasts, the current pattern of above-normal rainfall is expected to continue into September. Poor and very poor flood-stricken households will receive emergency aid, which should suffice to meet minimum needs until October/November. Demand for farm labor, which these households are currently dependent upon for their food supplies, is down slightly due to the crop losses in this area. Grain availability in local markets is much poorer than usual due to road closures and prices are slightly higher than projected in the July Outlook. The reaction will be more out-migration by household members for longer spans of time (October to June instead of January to May). In general, the resulting earned income and savings of food should suffice to enable these households to meet their minimum needs and prevent them from facing any food shortages. These households will be moderately food insecure through December. There have been reports of losses of livestock due to local flooding, which are the main productive assets owned by households in this livelihood zone. However, these losses are minor compared to the high animal mortality rates and distress sales of livestock for the purchasing of animal feed back in May/June. Most poor and very poor households raise some small animals and poultry at home, which are sold during the lean season when prices reach their peak in August. With this year’s floods, some of these households have lost 90 percent of their home-based herds and flocks. The poor will systematically resort to tending the animals of middle-income and wealthy households. Medium and long-term measures for the rebuilding of these productive assets by households already hard hit by last season’s food crisis will be needed to prevent these populations from abandoning livestock-raising in favor of farming and rural-to-urban labor migration by youth whose parents have lost most of their livestock. The July floods in livelihood zone 7 (northern and eastern livestock and cereals) sharply eroded livelihoods in the southeastern reaches of this area, where more than 50,000 flood victims have lost everything and are entirely dependent on outside aid. In fact, there is a small group of households in this area unable to meet even their most basic needs due to losses of grain in granaries, losses of livestock (mainly small animals), flooding of planted crops, losses of ready cash, and the destruction of homes. The food aid furnished by the government and its partners is their only recourse to make it through the rainy season. Moreover, current weather forecasts are raising fears of even more flooding problems in this area (the bursting of dams, the overflowing of reservoirs and streams, losses of livestock, the flooding of fields, etc.). The loss of crops and productive assets (flooded fields, draft oxen, and small animals) by a minority of the poor and very poor households (the poor and very poor account for approximately 55 percent of the area’s total population) are already obliged to cut back their number of daily meals. The distress sales of livestock following last season’s grain production shortfall in this area identify the need for production support measures for both crop and animal production for the next two seasons. In fact, efforts by poor and very poor households to rebuild their homes, replenish their grain reserves after the flooding of their granaries and fields of crops, and rebuild their animal herds (mainly herds of small animals and draft oxen) and poultry flocks will require a source of additional income (sales of wood and non-woody forest products, craft-making activities, temporary rural-urban labor migration, etc.) and assistance from both the humanitarian community and from the government and its other partners. The northern and eastern reaches of livelihood zone 5 (central plateau cereals and market gardening) bordering on zone 7 are populated by pastoralists and farmers whose main dry-season activity is market gardening. Household livelihoods in these areas have been affected by local flooding problems, adding to the problems faced by pastoralists since the end of the 2009/10 growing season. There are reportedly close to 35,000 flood victims in this livelihood zone. One of the area’s major dams has burst, the Tougouri Dam, whose importance for both livestock raising and market gardening activities suggests that rebuilding it should be a priority. The dam is a major resource for the many households growing tomatoes and other vegetables in the areas around the dam during the dry season.

BURKINA FASO Food Security Outlook Update August 2010

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3

Seasonal calendar and critical events

Source: FEWS NET

Figure 3. Livelihood zone map of Burkina Faso.

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5

39

1

6

2

7

4

8Djibo

Banfora

Leo

Kaya

Diapaga

Dori

Po

Reo

Pama

Nouna

Gaoua

Orodara

Sebba

Bogande

BoulsaTougan

Gayeri

Yako

Bobo-Dioulasso

Solenzo

Titao

Houndé

Fada-N'Gourma

Gorom-Gorom

Sapouy

Dedougou

Toma

Dano

Zorgho

Tenkodogo

Boromo

Ouahigouya

Batié

OuargayeManga

Sindou

Ziniare

Kongoussi

Kombissiri

KoudougouKoupela

Gourcy

Diebougou

Bousse

Ouagadougou

GHANA

NIGER

BENIN

TOGO

COTE D'IVOIRE

MALI

PoLeo

Dori

Kaya

Djibo

Tougan

Banfora

Orodara

Dedougou

Diebougou

Koudougou

Tenkodogo

Ouagadougou

Bobo-Dioulasso

0 50 100

Kilometers

Source: FEWS NET

Food Economy ZonesTubers/maize

Maize/rice/fruits/cotton

Cotton/maize

Sorghum/millet/cotton

Cereals/garden crops/groundnuts

Sorghum/millet/sedentary herding/cotton

Sedentary/transhumant herding/millet

Transhumant/nomadic pastoralism/millet

Groundnuts/cereals/cross-border trade/tourism/hunting

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2

3

4

5

6

7

8

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