Counting Future Carbs and Decarbs:How to Know You are on a Carbon Diet

SCHIPPER ADB June 2008

Lee Schipper, Ph.D.Global Metropolitan Studies, UCB

EMBARQ/CAI/World Bank 16 January 2009

Counting Future Carbs and Decarbs:How to Know You are on a Carbon Diet


Counting Carbs and DecarbsContents

• What Do We Need to Know And When Do We Need to Know It?• What We Need To Know and How Well – as They Change?

• The rise in CO2 emissions from transport: Inevitable? Desirable?• ASIF – Components of GHG emissions from transport• Some existing portrayals – aggregate to bottom up

• What if We Were Saving Carbs? How Would We Know•What is Carbon Saving, Anyway?•Diesel and Biofuels- Two Troubling Examples

You Cannot Master What You Can’t Measure


Asia: lumbering into modernity

7Key Question: Is this path of motorization good? Inevitable or

avoidable?

Source: EMBARQ

Motorization and Economic Growth:The China Syndrome?

WORLD ENERGY AND OIL USE:THE RISING ROLE OF TRANSPORT

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

Bill

ions

of T

onne

s of

Oil

Equi

vale

nt

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

Mill

ions

of B

arre

ls p

er D

ay o

il Eq

uiva

lent

All Other Primary Energy Use

All other Oil

Other transport oil (incl bunkers)

Road Transport Oil

WORLD CARBON EMISSIONS: TRANSPORTRoughly 25% of Global CO2 Emissions


CO2 Emissions from Road Transport Looks Hopeless to Stop?

0.0

0.1

1.0

10.0

$0 $1 $10 $100

GDP/Capita, $1000 USD (2000) PPP

Tonn

es C

O2/

Cap

ita fr

om R

oad

Tran

spor

t

US 60-05 UK 60-05

China 71-05 India *71-05

Japan 60-05 Korea 70-05

Canada 60-05 Viet Nam 93-05

–Source: IEA

Saving and De-CarbingA Broader Transport Perspective

• Avoidance – Carbon is a 2nd tier Consideration– Land Use: Building a city or country differently (Singapore, Curitiba, ?)– Internalizing costs at an early stage of development– Shifting the balance away from high-carbon transport

• Co-benefits of Transport, Urban Dvpt Strategies– Bus Rapid Transit and other improvements to transport system– Congestion pricing and other strategies to reduce externalities– Improved fuel use in pursuance of lower air pollutant emissions

• Direct Approach – Mitigation by Tech, Operations– Technology to reduce fuel use/km with improved traffic flow– Fuels with lower carbon/unit of energy– Improved vehicle or system utilization, modest restraint in km

Saving Carbon Today ImportantAvoidance Tomorrow by far Largest Potential

How Many Cities or Countries Have anINTEGRATED Approach to Transport/CO2


“ASIF” Decomposition Goal: Quantifying Changes in

Components

G

= A Si Ii Fi,j

Emissions from Transport

* * *

Occupancy/ Load Factor

Vehicle fuel intensity Vehicle characteristics

Technological energy efficiency

Real drive cycles and routing

Veh-km and pass-km by mode

Modal Energy Intensity

Emissions per unit of energy

or volume or km

Total Transport Activity

Lesson : See and Attack All Components of Transport, Know the Numbers Well Enough to Measure Changes

Air dispersion model; atmospheric chemistry; exposure and health effects.|Global CO2


Counting Carbs: How Well Do You Need To Know?Well Enough to measure year on year changes

• A – Total Distance Traveled- – Accurately enough to make BAU projections of distanced traveled– Well enough to understand how much different vehicles are used – Ability to see impacts of policies like congestion pricing, fuel price

changes• S – Modal Split/Passengers or tonnes/vehicle

– Well enough to discern loads on different streets, transit routes– Well enough to tell trip distance by mode and purpose– Well enough to measure emissions/passenger-km by mode and vehicle

• Vehicle or Modal Fuel Intensity – Well enough to distinguish fuel intensity of different vehicle brands, types– Well enough to estimate new vs existing fuel intensities– Well enough to see impacts of traffic and driving behavior on emissions

• Decarbonizing Fuel Choices – CO2 and Local Emissions – Well enough to know CO2 upstream by full fuel cycle analysis– Well enough to measure changes in pollutants before/after controls– Well enough to detect fuel adulteration (“6th commandment”)


Counting Carbs: What Do You Need To Know?Allies and Institutions for Sustainable Transport

• A – Total Distance Traveled- National and Local Surveys– Measure overall performance of transport system - – Measure direct and indirect costs and revenues – Monitor mobility of people and goods

• S – Modal Split – National and Local Surveys– Performance of each mode (distance, revenue, costs)– Service levels (speed, reliability, customer satisfaction)– Externalities from different modes (air pollution, congestion, noise, safety

etc.)

• Vehicle or Modal Fuel Intensity – Limited Measurements– Energy security, performance of alternative fuels– Validation of fuel efficiency standards– Performance of advanced vehicles (hybrids etc)

• Decarbonizing Fuel Choices - – Monitoring performance of alternative fuels– Fuel-cycle analyses (FFCA/LCA) expose hidden fossil fuel inputs– Some inputs (indirect land use/soil changes) hard to measure


When Do You Need To Know?

• Before – Diagnosis of Problems– Where is the urban system and its transport headed?– Traffic flow, time in congestion, accidents and personal security– Pollutants from various kinds of vehicles, fuel efficiency, CO2 emissions

• After – Evaluation of Policies and Measures– Changes in parameters above well before problems arise– Comparison with estimates of “what would have happened”, i.e., BAU– Measurement of unintended good and bad side effects

• Always – Land uses and other parameters of urban development – Evolution of vehicle and fuel technologies– Ambient air quality, accident rates (particularly NMT) – Impact of transport costs on different social groups, regions

Saving and De-CarbingA Broader Transport Perspective

• Avoidance – Carbon is a 2nd tier Consideration– Where is a country or sub-national or urban region headed?– How are land-uses and transport patterns (people, freight) evolving?– What policies would change the direction, how can results be

monitored

• Co-benefits of Transport, Urban Dvpt Strategies– Measure time in transport, local emissions, accidents, fuel use in “ZI”– Monetize the variables, compare options, to get costs/benefits– Compare CO2 benefit with other costs/benefits

• Direct Approach – Mitigation by Tech, Operations– Measure emissions before/after (i.e., with, without) mitigation– Measure possible rebounds or other unanticipated effects– Estimates impacts on non-project participants or vehicles

Metric of Changes is Emissions With/Without,Not Before/After Policy or Institutional Change

Dieselization : Opportunity or Trap Monitoring Shows Little Savings in Europe

Source:` official national data

19

Validating Opportunities in Other Modes• Urban Buses – High Speed, Low Emissions

– Articulated buses running in dedicated BRT lines (Mex City)– Parallel hybrid drive trains using diesel propulsion (MC) – Which minibuses etc to eliminate? (EMBARQ Queretaro Study)

• Trucking (Intercity and Delivery)– Improving efficiency of trucks - important in Asia– Improve freight logistics– Reduce growth in vkt run, particularly empty running

• Rail?– Building or strengthening freight networks - uncertain– Consider low-cost, medium speed intercity rail (tilt trains)– Improve intermodal access around rail facilities to boost usage

Important to Focus on All Components of Transport System

It’s Not Just Before/AfterIt’s With/Without Policies

Dynamic Base-line & Project-line over timeAfter J. Rogers, Trafalgar SA, Mexico and M Cordeiro, EMBARQ

Time

EmissionsWith & with-out

Intervention difference

Before & after project

Baseline from counterfactual

Actual development with intervention

Widening gap between baseline and actual

It’s Not Just Before/AfterDoesn’t Always Work Out

Dynamic Base-line & Project-line over timeAfter J. Rogers, Trafalgar SA, Mexico and M Cordeiro, EMBARQ

Time

EmissionsWith & with-out

Intervention difference

Before & after project

Baseline from counterfactual

Actual development with intervention

One-time offsetBackfire?

Saving CarbonHow Would You Know?

• Avoidance – Carbon is a 2nd tier Influence– Comparisons of vehicle use, motorization, travel/freight flows – Direct surveying of travel, vehicle use as function of location– Meaningless to use “cost of saved carbon” indicator

• Co-benefits of Transport, Urban Dvpt Strategies– Estimate with/without projects using well calibrated models– Monitor traffic, vehicle characteristics, fuel sales etc – Difficult to construct “cost of saved carbon” indicator

• Direct Approach – Mitigation by Tech, operations– Measure before/after in vehicles, fuel content, etc. by careful monitoring– Estimate with/without from traffic measurements and macro indicators– Possible to construct cost of saved carbon/fuel indicator

Mitigation, Co-benefits Impacts relatively Easy To MeasureLarge Avoidance Impacts Easy to See, but Hard to Measure

Broader Approach to Co-BenefitsCarbon Benefits Small Compared to Others

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

Low CO2 and Fuel Values High CO2 and Fuel Values

Tota

l Ben

efits

, $U

S M

illio

ns

Other Traffic CO2Bus CO2 incl mode switchOther Traffic FuelBus Fuel incl mode switchAccidents/DeathAir Pollution/HealthVKt Costs -- all trafficTime Savings

Minimum and Ideal Requirements (ASIF Parameters)

• A and S (Total Travel and Freight Volume) – Vehicles, yearly distances– Average loads by vehicle (people, tonnes)– Cross check with travel survey every five years

• I (Fuel Intensity)– Estimated intensity of each vehicle/fuel combination– Test values of new vehicles, weighted by sales– Average load factors

• F (emissions factors, etc)– Typical driving cycles– Numbers of vehicles/distances by fuels– Approx. local emissions coefficients

SCHIPPER DRAFT

Costs

Certainty levels

Validation of Key Policies

Broad Goals for improved traffic, lower emissions

Philanthropy: Developer or Mayor Brag?

Cost Depends on Desired CertaintyWhat is Certainty Worth If Climate and Transport At Stake?

Real Options Analysis/Co-benefits Choice (CO2, noise, safety)

MEASUREMENT AND ACCURACY?You Get What You Pay For:

Make Sure you Get What You Need

After Nancy Kete, EMBARQ

Lee.Schipper

Proposed Data/Indicators Architecture The Way Forward

• National vs Local Estimates– Use consistent models and estimating approaches– Coordinate updating, boundary issues etc for consistency– Focus on regional differences (income, topography, weather)

• Coordinating Data and Analysis– Consistent time series and coordination among countries– End to confidentiality of multi-, bi-lateral sponsored work– Private, public, academic, consultant experts work together

• Coordination Among Agencies – “Yes We Can Afford”– Information valuable to many private, public institutions– Careful sharing of resources to lower costs– Streamlined data collection with new technologies

Proposed Institutional Architecture What should we do in terms of data collection and data

management and how to organize this? • Public Sector (Including IGO, Banks, etc.)

– Support long-term policy data requirements with laws, $$– Create capacity through Universities and education system – Coordinate data hitch-hiking through relationship therapy

• Private Sector – Your future depends on this– Identify own needs and what can be shared– Work with authorities on labeling, monitoring, evaluation– Support data, analysis, evaluation with real $$

• Research Sector – Key Questions– Stay ahead of the other sectors: What will we need to know?– How can we know more often, for less money?– How can we better underestand with we know and don’t know?

Measuring Changes and Impacts

Household impacts oftransport costs

Impacts of pricing on mobility, Vehicles revenues

Measure elasticites

Measure successIn a timely way

Policy

Institutions

Technology

Infrastructure

Operation

Measure impacts of investments

Schipper ADB Transport Week

ThanksLee Schipper

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Counting Future Carbs and Decarbs:How to Know You are on a Carbon Diet

Education

Transcript of Counting Future Carbs and Decarbs:How to Know You are on a Carbon Diet