COUNTER-INTUITY of COMPLEX SYSTEMS:

WEATHER VS CLIMATE

SHORT TERM versus LONGThe Butterfly Effect

Short Term Drop in Oil Prices Epidemic's Descendant Benefits

By Paul H. Carr, Ph.D.

www.MirrorOfNature.org

Counterintuitiveness of Complex Systems http://www.clexchange.org/curriculum/complexsystems/default.asp

By MIT Prof. JAY W. FORRESTER (1971) System Dynamics Pioneer, author of World Dynamics

•The intuitively obvious "solutions" to problems are wrong (apt to fall into one of several traps set by the character of complex systems.)

•Cause and effect are not closely related in time or space.•Action is often ineffective because symptoms are treated, not the problem. -The cause of the problem is within the system.

•Conflicts arise between short-term and long-term goals.

BUTTERFLY EFFECT: Precision in Initial Conditions Limits Weather

Predictability

MIT Prof EdwardLorentz

1961

The Lorenz Attractor: wibbly-wobbly mess of the millenium. Three simulation runs (red, green, blue) are shown; they start close together but quickly spin off on different trajectories, demonstrating sensitivity to initial conditions (weather). Nonetheless, the trajectories quickly converge on an intricate structure in the phase space, called an 'attractor'. The attractor doesn't vary with initial conditions, but is instead a feature of the Lorenz equations themselves (climate). (Image generated with code from TitanLab)

Long term stable attractor pattern looks like butterfly wings

Did chaos theory kill climatology ?

“Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the average weather, or more rigorously, as the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years.” IPCC

NO! LONG TERM AVERAGES ARE PREDICTABLE

1880-1980: 0.3 C TEMP INCREASE1980- 2012: 0.55 TEMPERATURE INCREASE

(Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., and Lo, K., 2010: Global surface temperature change, Rev. Geophys. 48, RG4004.)

LONG TERM AVERAGES REMOVE THE SHORT TERM FLUCTUATIONS

CORRELTAION BETWEEN TEMP AND CO2 INCREASE. IS THERE A PHYSICAL PROCESS LINKING TEMPERATURE INCREASE TO THAT OF GREENHOUSE GAS CO2?

Increasing CO2 gas density: 1. raises temperature of earth’s surface. 2. reduces temperature of the stratosphere.

WEATHER VS. CLIMATE•Initial condition accuracy limits weather predictions to days. After this predictions become chaotic.

•Long term averages smooth out chaotic fluctuations. Equivalently the “attractor” is independent of initial conditions.

•Long term climactic averages aided by physical understanding can be predictable.

•Similar to quantum theory of particles.

Meteorologist John Coleman, who co-founded The Weather Channel, said

www.dailymail.co.uk/.../article.../Oct 23, 2014 - 'The ocean is not rising significantly. The polar ice is increasing, not melting away.

Is this statement published in the non-peer reviewed Daily Mail correct from a climatology perspective?

• The Sept 2012 minimum area set a record low.• Sept 2013, 2014 is larger but not climate trend changing.• http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/ Nat. Snow & Ice Data Ctr.

A darker Arctic is boosting global warmingFrom1979 to 2011, less reflecting ice, more absorbing water made

North Pole warm twice as fast as the rest of the earth. http://www.pnaorg/content/early/2014/02/13/1318201111.abstract

Proc. National Academy of Science, Feb 18, 2014.

3. ARCTIC MELTING IN THE LAST 32 YEARS SATELITE PHOTO

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Meteorologist John Coleman, who co-founded The Weather Channel, said

www.dailymail.co.uk/.../article.../Oct 23, 2014 - 'The ocean is not rising significantly. The polar ice is increasing, not melting away.

Is this statement published in the non-peer reviewed Daily Mail correct from a climatology perspective?

Blue: Sea level change from tide-gauge data (Church J.A. and White N.J., Geophys. Res. Lett. 2006; 33: L01602)Red: Univ. Colorado sea level analyses in satellite era (http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/SeaLevel/).

Sea level rise has increased to 3.1 mm/year at present from 0.8 mm/year 1870– 1924.

12 in./100 years.

7.5 in./100 years

3 in. /100 years

Most recent prediction for 2100: 3 to 6 feet

• Melting Greenland• Melting Antarctica• Mountain Glaciers

Global temperatures have risen since 1960, but rate of sea level rise has been greater.

EARTH WILL CROSS DANGER TRESHOLD BY 2036M. Mann. Scientific American, vol 310, April 2014

Faux Pause

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The rate of sea level increase correlates with the blue line of the CO2 increase.

Sea level rise is a proxy for global temperature, since it is due to thermal expansion (50%) and the melting of ice (50%)

SEA LEVEL RISE IS A BETTER MEASURE OF GLOBAL WARMINGTHAN TEMPERATURE

Oceanic heat sink.Evolution of the ocean heat content (OHC) at several depths of the global ocean between 1980 and 2011.

A Clement, and P DiNezio Science 2014;343:976-978http://www.sciencemag.org/content/343/6174/976.full

Published by AAAS20

Integrated OHC.Integrated from the surface to different indicated depths in the global ocean, A.

X Chen, and K Tung Science 2014;345:897-903

Published by AAAS

ARCTIC IS MELTING FASTER THAN UN IPCC 2007 PREDICTIONS PREDICTEDPREDICTIONS

UN IPCC CONSERVATIVE PREDICTIONS OF 300 SCIENTISTS FROM 40 NATIONS.

From World Without Ice H. Pollack.

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A darker Arctic is boosting global warmingFrom1979 to 2011, less reflecting ice, more absorbing water made

North Pole warm twice as fast as the rest of the earth. http://www.pnaorg/content/early/2014/02/13/1318201111.abstract

Proc. National Academy of Science, Feb 18, 2014.

3. ARCTIC MELTING IN THE LAST 32 YEARS SATELITE PHOTO

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Counterintuitiveness of Complex Systems http://www.clexchange.org/curriculum/complexsystems/default.asp

By MIT Prof. JAY W. FORRESTER (1971) Author of World Dynamics

•The intuitively obvious "solutions" to problems are wrong (apt to fall into one of several traps set by the character of complex systems.)

•Cause and effect are not closely related in time or space.•Action is often ineffective because symptoms are treated, not the problem. -The cause of the problem is within the system.•Conflicts arise between short-term and long-term goals.

PAST COLD ARCTIC PRESENT WARMER ARCTIC

Higher pressure sub-tropic constrained the low-pressure arctic

Lower pressure difference allows waves of arctic air to invade the South: Warmer & Colder Winters.

Cold Air Oscillates South from the ArcticThe Arctic is warming faster than the rest of our earth.

Therefore the temperature and the accompanying pressure difference that used to keep arctic air up North comes South, bringing cold air to Atlanta & New Orleans.

The Winters of our Discontent Charles H. Green, Scientific American, pgs 51-55, Dec.2012 A Wacky Jet Steam Is Making Our Weather Severe , Scientific American, Nov 18, 2014

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The jet stream that circles Earth's north pole travels west to east. But when the jet stream interacts with a Rossby wave, as shown here, the winds can wander far north and south, bringing frigid air to normally mild southern states. http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/02/16/277911739/warming-arctic-may-be-causing-jet-stream-to-lose-its-way

Hopefully humorous, intuitive,near term weather perspective

SHORT TERM: 50% drop in oil prices.

Recent drop on oil prices should be sort term.

In the long term, the Mid East will be the major oil producer.

THE LONG TERM BENEFICIARIES OF SHORT TERM DISASTERS

THE BRIGHT SIDE OF THE BACK DEATHThe Bubonic Plague left its mark on the human population of Europe, showing that what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger.American Scientist vol. 102, pg 410-413, Nov-Dec 2014

Population dropped precipitously by a factor of 2 in 1348.However, population had trippled from 1100 to 1300.

DESCENDENT BENEFITS

•Sharon DeWitte by examining cemeteries:-A higher proportion of the population reached older ages after the Black Death than before.

•Wages of labor rose due to higher demand.

•More land, food, and money for ordinary people.

• After 1492, Native American population plummetedbecause they were not immune to European diseases.

-Advantage to European settlers in armed conflicts.

LONG TERM DESCENDENT BENEFITS

“God judged it better to bring good out of evil, than to suffer no evil to exist.”

Thomas Aquinas (1225–1274)

AMBIGUITY OF GOOD & EVIL

WEATHER VS. CLIMATE•Initial condition accuracy limits weather predictions to days. After this predictions become chaotic.

•Long term averages smooth out chaotic fluctuations. Equivalently the “attractor” is independent of initial conditions.

•Long term climactic averages aided by physical understanding can be predictable.

•Similar to quantum theory of particles.

Counterintuitiveness of Complex Systems http://www.clexchange.org/curriculum/complexsystems/default.asp

By MIT Prof. JAY W. FORRESTER (1971) Author of World Dynamics

•The intuitively obvious "solutions" to problems are wrong (apt to fall into one of several traps set by the character of complex systems.)

•Cause and effect are not closely related in time or space.•Action is often ineffective because symptoms are treated, not the problem. -The cause of the problem is within the system.

•Conflicts arise between short-term and long-term goals.

“Where there is no vision, the people perish.”

Proverbs 29: 18.