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Transcript of Could Ahmadinejad End Up Under House Arrest_ - Al-Monitor_ the Pulse of the Middle East
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About This Article
Summary :
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may become
the first former president under
Ayatollah Khamenei to spend part of
his retirement under house arrest,
writes Meir Javendanfar.
Author: Meir Javedanfar
Posted on : April 30 2013
Categories : Originals Iran
Could Ahmadinejad End Up
Under House Arrest?
By: Meir Javedanfar for Al-Monitor Posted on April 30.
Until recently, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad behaved like a boxer who always knew that in fight
against his rivals, the referee (i.e., the Iranian supreme leader) would back him. And he was right. The referee
who clearly favored him, was willing to overlook many things in his favor. In some cases, he also helped him
overtly and covertly. As Khamenei is Iran's most powerful authority, there was little that Ahmadinejad's rivals
could do. Those days are gone.
Ahmadinejad has six weeks left in office six weeks in the highespolitical office he has ever held and is likely ever to hold in his entire
political life. Whats worse for him, however, is that his rivals know that th
supreme leader will no longer be willing to throw fights his way, so they are
going after him, verbally and politically. Until Ahmadinejad leaves office
the pent up anger felt by his rivals for the last eight years will continue to
manifest itself in blows against him, and things could get much worse afte
he leaves office. At that point, the attacks could become more frequen
and more merciless.
Ahmadinejad has two options: to defend himself now, with all his might, totry to deter his rivals from attacking him after he leaves office or to hold hi
fire until after he steps down. Both options have advantages and
disadvantages.
Going after his rivals while in office might deter them from future attacks, but it could also anger the supreme
leader, as elections are a sensitive time for him. This would translate into even less support from Khamenei once
he leaves office. By holding fire until after his term, Ahmadinejad will have much less power and influence at his
disposal. Lack of action might also be interpreted as a sign of weakness by his rivals. This is, indeed, a dilemma.
For now, Ahmadinejad seems to be taking the option to ward off his rivals. This has included threatening toreveal their corrupt dealings and practices and in one case following through on his threat. The latter took place
in early February, when Ahmadinejad aired tapes showing the brother of his rival Ali Larijani asking for bribes
There were also reports by the Iranian website BAZTAB that Ahmadinejad had taped evidence of cheating
during the 2009 elections (oddly enough in his favor). The article that published this report was soon removed
and Ahmadinejad's office denied the story.
Now Ahmadinejad is taking the battle to the next stage: the elections process. For years, the Interior Ministry
has been in charge of overseeing elections. Although the interior minister is typically considered close to the
supreme leader, the president, nevertheless, has some influence in the all-important ministry.
http://iranpulse.al-monitor.com/index.php/2013/04/1900/ahmadinejads-office-denies-existence-of-tape-exposing-fraudulent-elections/http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/30/world/middleeast/as-election-nears-ahmadinejads-critics-pile-on.html?_r=0http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/contents/authors/meir-javedanfar.htmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/2013/04/130430_l03_election_bztab.shtmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/2013/04/130430_l03_election_bztab.shtmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/2013/04/130430_l03_election_bztab.shtmlhttp://iranpulse.al-monitor.com/index.php/2013/04/1900/ahmadinejads-office-denies-existence-of-tape-exposing-fraudulent-elections/http://iranpulse.al-monitor.com/index.php/2013/04/1900/ahmadinejads-office-denies-existence-of-tape-exposing-fraudulent-elections/http://www.npr.org/2013/02/08/171513436/irans-president-draws-long-simmering-feud-out-into-the-openhttp://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/30/world/middleeast/as-election-nears-ahmadinejads-critics-pile-on.html?_r=0http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/contents/authors/meir-javedanfar.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/countries/iranhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/contents/authors/meir-javedanfar.html -
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Worried about Ahmadinejad using his influence over the Interior Ministry to promote his right-hand
man, Esfandiyar Rahim Mashaei, the Iranian parliament passed a new law for the supervision of elections, and
the Council of Guardians approved it in January this year. According to the law, in supervising elections, the
Interior Ministry will act as part of an Elections Central Executive Committee, which will include the minister o
intelligence, head of the country's judiciary, and an appointee from the Majles. All the involved institutions are
staunchly pro-Khamenei, and in fact, the intelligence minister and the country's top judge are his appointees
Meanwhile, the interior minister has to nominate 30 religious, political, cultural and society personalities to the
oversight committee of the Council of Guardians so that they can be vetted and seven of them appointed to the
Elections Central Executive Committee.
Ahmadinejad saw the new law as a challenge to him by his rivals. To retaliate, he has held off nominating the 30
people to the Council of Guardians committee, although it was requested that he do so in mid-February. Thi
response has raised the ire of Ahmadinejad's rivals so much so that he is being accused of playing dangerou
games and warned that his behavior is preparing for sedition before the elections.
With six weeks before thepresidential elections, Ahmadinejad seems to be trying to use the electoral process
and his remaining influence over it to show his teeth. By doing so, he is also hoping to send a warning to hisrivals. He also seems to be using his influence as political leverage to improve Meshai's chances of being
approved by the Council of Guardians, should he decide to run.
This is a gamble. Should Ahmadinejad continue to drag his feet, Khamenei could simply appoint seven people
himself. Judging by the reported cheating in the 2009 elections, fairness and procedure are not exactly the
supreme leader's priorities.
If such a scenario were to unfold, Ahmadinejad might feel cornered and even more threatened, thus forcing him
to react. This could include revealing more secrets about regime officials, which would lead to even more
infighting and instability while damaging the legitimacy of the entire regime. If so, soon after the electionsAhmadinejad would find himself pursued and possibly under house arrest. This scenario cannot be dismissed
given the sensitivity Khamenei has recently shown to those seen as destablizing elements. More important, the
supreme leader needs to show that he will not stand by while his government officials spy on each other and use
intelligence material to settle scores.
Regardless of what happens, upon leaving office, Ahmadinejad will join the three-member club of forme
presidents who served under Khamenei and then fell out of his favor. Whether Ahmadinejad will be the firs
member of the club to serve part of his retirement under house arrest depends on him.
Meir Javedanfar is an Iranian-IsraeliMiddle East analyst. He teaches contemporary Iranian politics athe Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya.
http://middleeastanalyst.com/about/http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/contents/authors/meir-javedanfar.htmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/04/iran-elections-state-of-confusion.htmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/2013/04/130424_l12_ir92_majlis_warning_mozaffar_gov_ahmadinejad.shtmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/2013/04/130424_l12_ir92_majlis_warning_mozaffar_gov_ahmadinejad.shtmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/2013/04/130424_l45_ir92_election_executive_commitee.shtmlhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/2013/04/130424_l45_ir92_election_executive_commitee.shtmlhttp://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/03/ahmadinejad-rahim-meshai-iran-presidential-elections.html -
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3 comments
What's thisALSO ONAL-MONITOR: THE PULSE OF THE MIDDLE EAST
Netanyahu Will Ignore Arab League Land-
Swap Proposal
8 comments a day ago
stardhead Resolution 242 never said 67 borders
were peace lines my god rewrite his tory and
international law will you read
'Israel Has Nothing to Fear'
17 comments 3 days ago
stardhead That's like saying some of my bestfriends are black. Are there sel f hating black people
who are racist? To me if
Ahmadinejads Office Denies Existence of
Tape Exposing Election Fraud
1 comment 4 days ago
deleydel Our vote was s tolen and now thieves
have got to the game of accusation as to who did the
stealing. It seem s that
Khamenei's Criteria For Next Iranian
President
3 comments 16 days ago
Kaal Khamenei will have to choose wis ely. He
needs to choose a person who is both loyal and
who is genuinely
Leave a message...
BestBest CommunityCommunity ShareShare
BoulderFinFan
These elections are a sham. Khamenei decides who the president will be not the
people. The people that vote don't decide elections. The people that count the votes do
jus tmehla
Wonder how long he'd live if he pushed for a free and open press.
sue grimes
How about the death penalty?
0
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