Cotton: World Markets and Trade - Cornell University

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Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

Uncertainty Overshadows China’s 2019/20 Balance Sheet

This month’s forecast sees modest overall changes, but the level of uncertainty has risen significantly

since last month. The novel coronavirus (CV) outbreak and its potential ramifications have lowered

China consumption, more than offsetting any potential positive impacts from the U.S.-China trade truce.

China’s consumption is lowered modestly based in part on the initial impacts of the CV outbreak,

including lengthened factory shutdowns due to the extended Lunar Holiday. Current impacts include a

slowdown across the entire textile sector as travel restrictions and plant shutdowns have reduced

commercial activity, and to a lesser extent, a slowdown in consumer demand for apparel and other retail

products. The unknown duration and severity of these effects overshadows 2019/20 consumption

developments since last month’s forecast.

In contrast, the recently signed trade agreement between the United States and China has reduced

uncertainty, as the threat of escalating trade actions (negatively affecting the cotton sector) is replaced,

at least in the short term, by greater potential for easing of trade measures put in place during the

dispute. By reducing uncertainty, the trade agreement positively impacts expected income growth in CY

2020 and world cotton consumption. Note that a recent reduction in some retaliatory duties by China

did not specifically benefit the cotton sector.

This month’s forecast shows no change in either U.S. export or China cotton import forecasts. The

public portion of the agreement contains no specific commitments on China’s part to increase market

access for U.S. cotton, either by removing retaliatory duties on cotton or expanding access in general.

The agreement states that purchases will be made at market prices based on commercial considerations.

Current market access for cotton consists of the WTO TRQ of 894,000 metric tons (tons) at 1 percent

duty with an additional duty of 25 percent for U.S. cotton; processing licenses (estimated at 200-300,000

tons a year) at zero duty with no additional for U.S. cotton; sliding-scale duty (assumed to be announced

as market conditions dictate) with an additional 25 percent for U.S. cotton; and imports outside these at

40 percent duty with additional 25 percent for U.S. cotton. Imports by China’s State Reserve are not

subject to duties, but there are currently no announcements for such imports.

Although the Phase One Agreement lessened market uncertainty, the CV outbreak is the newest

headwind further dampening cotton demand prospects in China. The presence of uncertain market

conditions in 2019/20, including the outbreak and initial trade dispute, has helped lower consumption

more than 4 million bales since the initial May forecast and to the lowest total in 4 years.

United States

Department of

Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service February 2020

Cotton:

World Markets and Trade

Overview

For 2019/20, the February forecast shows higher production and beginning stocks. Production is raised

for Pakistan, Brazil, and Tanzania. Consumption is lowered slightly due to weaker demand in China

and Vietnam. Global trade is down with lower imports by Vietnam, Pakistan, and South Korea coupled

with lower exports from India and Malaysia. The U.S. forecast is unchanged from last month and the

U.S. season-average farm price is lowered 1 cent to 62 cents per pound.

For current prices received by farmers click here; NASS farm price

Prices

The A-index and the U.S. spot price have lost upward momentum in recent weeks, due in part to

concerns over the coronavirus outbreak in China and more restrained market sentiment about the U.S.-

China trade situation.

For more information on U.S. spot price click here; AMS Cotton Market News

Feb-20, 76.6

Feb-20, 63.0

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Feb

-17

Mar-1

7

Ap

r-17

May-1

7

Ju

n-1

7

Ju

l-17

Au

g-1

7

Sep

-17

Oct-1

7

Nov

-17

Dec-1

7

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar-1

8

Ap

r-18

May-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Ju

l-18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct-1

8

Nov

-18

Dec-1

8

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar-1

9

Ap

r-19

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct-1

9

Nov

-19

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

cen

ts/l

b.

Monthly Average Cotton Prices

A-Index U.S. Spot Price

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 2 February 2020Global Market Analysis

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/c821gj76b?locale=en

http://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/cotton

2019/20 TRADE OUTLOOK

Major Importers:

Change Feb. 2020 Jan. 2020 Justification

WORLD -285 43,548 43,833

Vietnam -300 6,800 7,100 Weaker import pace

and lower

consumption

Malaysia 250 1,000 750 Increase in

consignment stocks

South Korea -100 7,200 7,300

Weaker import pace

and lower

consumption

Pakistan -100 4,200 4,300 Larger crop

India 100 2,300 2,200 Lower world prices

Major Exporters:

WORLD -304 43,544 43,848

Brazil 100 8,900 8,800 Larger crop

India -200 3,600 3,800 Slower-than-

expected pace

Malaysia -100 450 550 Increase in

consignment stocks

Note: 1,000 Bales (480-lbs)

The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution (PSD) database

for cotton, oilseeds, and grains at 12:00 p.m. on the day the World Agricultural Supply and Demand

Estimates (WASDE) report is released. This circular is released by 12:15 p.m.


FAS Reports and Databases:

Current World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports:

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/downloads

Archives World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports:

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewTaxonomy.do?taxonomyID=7

Production, Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online):

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/home

Global Agricultural Trade System (U.S. Exports and Imports):

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx

Export Sales Report:

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/

Global Agricultural Information Network (Agricultural Attaché Reports):

http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx

Other USDA Reports:

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE):

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/

Economic Research Service:

http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops

National Agricultural Statistics Service:

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/

Questions may be directed to:

James Johnson (202) 690-1546 ([email protected])

Graham Soley (202) 772-4235 ([email protected])


https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/downloads

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewTaxonomy.do?taxonomyID=7

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/home

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/

http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/

http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/

Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month

(1,000 480 lb Bales and 1,000 Ha)

Country Mktg

Year

Area

Harvested

Beginning

Stocks

Production Imports Exports Use Loss Total Dom.

Cons.

Ending

Stocks

Australia

50000-500000 2019/20

Bangladesh

300000300 2018/19

800000531 2019/20

Brazil

48000000480020 2018/19

580000100020048030 2019/20

Burkina

75000-750000 2019/20

China

1,000-1,0000-1,00000000 2019/20

Cote d'Ivoire

12000001200 2018/19

12000000120 2019/20

Greece

50000-500000 2019/20

India

300000-200100000 2019/20

Indonesia

0-500-500-50000 2019/20

Japan

015015015000 2019/20

Korea, South

-35-750-7510-100000 2019/20

Malaysia

350000-100250000 2019/20

Mexico

25000-250000 2019/20

Mozambique

-14000-100-2400 2018/19

-4000-1000-140 2019/20


Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (Continued)

(1,000 480 lb Bales and 1,000 Ha)

Country Mktg

Year

Area

Harvested

Beginning

Stocks

Production Imports Exports Use Loss Total Dom.

Cons.

Ending

Stocks

Pakistan

20020002000-10050000 2019/20

Taiwan

-11-700-706-75000 2019/20

Tanzania

-5000000-500-80 2018/19

0000500100-50-50 2019/20

Thailand

0-250-250-25000 2019/20

Turkey

-100100010000000 2019/20

Uganda

-300000-30-3 2017/18

2300015041-3-1 2018/19

2800040045230 2019/20

Vietnam

0-3000-3000-300000 2019/20

World

World

-300000-30-3 2017/18

45400050462-3-61 2018/19

2,528-1,2050-1,205-304-285850454-19 2019/20


Table 01 Cotton World Supply, Use, and Trade (Season Beginning August 1)

(1000 MT)

2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Jan

2019/20

Feb

2019/20

Production none

5,639 India 5,879 6,314 5,617 6,423 6,423

4,790 China 4,953 5,987 6,042 5,933 5,933

2,806 United States 3,738 4,555 3,999 4,377 4,377

1,289 Brazil 1,528 2,007 2,830 2,722 2,765

1,524 Pakistan 1,676 1,785 1,655 1,328 1,437

827 Uzbekistan 811 840 713 762 762

577 Turkey 697 871 806 740 740

3,485 Other 3,943 4,589 4,161 3,947 3,979

20,937 Total 23,226 26,950 25,823 26,231 26,417

USE Dom. Consumption none

7,838 China 8,382 8,927 8,600 8,382 8,165

5,389 India 5,302 5,258 5,225 5,334 5,334

2,243 Pakistan 2,243 2,373 2,330 2,308 2,351

1,372 Bangladesh 1,481 1,633 1,589 1,589 1,589

1,459 Turkey 1,426 1,622 1,502 1,546 1,568

980 Vietnam 1,176 1,437 1,524 1,546 1,481

675 Brazil 697 740 740 740 740

4,699 Other 4,589 4,738 4,657 4,729 4,684

24,654 Total 25,295 26,728 26,168 26,175 25,912

Imports none

959 China 1,096 1,243 2,099 1,851 1,851

1,388 Bangladesh 1,481 1,655 1,502 1,568 1,568

1,002 Vietnam 1,197 1,524 1,502 1,546 1,481

718 Pakistan 533 740 621 936 914

918 Turkey 801 876 762 893 893

640 Indonesia 738 766 664 675 664

233 India 596 365 392 479 501

1,858 Other 1,766 1,792 1,647 1,597 1,611

7,717 Total 8,208 8,962 9,189 9,544 9,482

Exports none

1,993 United States 3,248 3,544 3,214 3,592 3,592

939 Brazil 607 909 1,310 1,916 1,938

1,255 India 991 1,128 764 827 784

209 Greece 221 234 295 337 327

142 Benin 174 218 305 305 305

616 Australia 812 852 791 294 283

218 Mali 239 283 294 283 283

2,184 Other 1,948 1,870 2,029 1,992 1,969

7,555 Total 8,241 9,039 9,003 9,547 9,481

Ending Stocks none

12,345 China 9,998 8,272 7,766 7,129 7,347

1,534 India 1,716 2,009 2,028 2,768 2,833

1,243 Brazil 1,509 1,885 2,668 2,635 2,761

827 United States 599 914 1,056 1,176 1,176

569 Pakistan 504 616 543 472 516

330 Bangladesh 355 404 345 349 351

334 Turkey 333 387 347 358 336

2,446 Other 2,468 3,113 2,662 2,441 2,559

19,628 Total 17,481 17,600 17,415 17,329 17,880


Table 02 Cotton World Supply, Use, and Trade (Season Beginning August 1)

(1000 Bales)

2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Jan

2019/20

Feb

2019/20

Production none

5,920 Brazil 7,020 9,220 13,000 12,500 12,700

22,000 China 22,750 27,500 27,750 27,250 27,250

25,900 India 27,000 29,000 25,800 29,500 29,500

7,000 Pakistan 7,700 8,200 7,600 6,100 6,600

2,650 Turkey 3,200 4,000 3,700 3,400 3,400

12,888 United States 17,170 20,923 18,367 20,102 20,102

3,800 Uzbekistan 3,725 3,860 3,275 3,500 3,500

16,005 Other 18,112 21,076 19,111 18,127 18,277

96,163 Total 106,677 123,779 118,603 120,479 121,329

USE Dom. Consumption none

6,300 Bangladesh 6,800 7,500 7,300 7,300 7,300

3,100 Brazil 3,200 3,400 3,400 3,400 3,400

36,000 China 38,500 41,000 39,500 38,500 37,500

24,750 India 24,350 24,150 24,000 24,500 24,500

3,000 Indonesia 3,300 3,500 3,150 3,100 3,050

10,300 Pakistan 10,300 10,900 10,700 10,600 10,800

6,700 Turkey 6,550 7,450 6,900 7,100 7,200

3,450 United States 3,250 3,225 2,975 3,000 3,000

1,800 Uzbekistan 2,000 2,500 2,800 3,300 3,300

4,500 Vietnam 5,400 6,600 7,000 7,100 6,800

13,332 Other 12,527 12,536 12,464 12,318 12,163

113,232 Total 116,177 122,761 120,189 120,218 119,013

Imports none

6,375 Bangladesh 6,800 7,600 6,900 7,200 7,200

4,406 China 5,032 5,710 9,640 8,500 8,500

1,072 India 2,736 1,677 1,800 2,200 2,300

2,941 Indonesia 3,391 3,517 3,051 3,100 3,050

443 Malaysia 392 739 744 750 1,000

975 Mexico 1,000 925 850 800 800

3,300 Pakistan 2,450 3,400 2,850 4,300 4,200

1,275 Thailand 1,226 1,149 1,075 1,000 975

4,218 Turkey 3,679 4,024 3,499 4,100 4,100

4,600 Vietnam 5,500 7,000 6,900 7,100 6,800

5,839 Other 5,491 5,419 4,894 4,783 4,623

35,444 Total 37,697 41,160 42,203 43,833 43,548

Exports none

2,828 Australia 3,731 3,915 3,632 1,350 1,300

650 Benin 800 1,000 1,400 1,400 1,400

4,314 Brazil 2,789 4,174 6,018 8,800 8,900

1,080 Burkina 1,155 1,225 940 975 900

550 Cameroon 500 400 575 600 600

780 Cote d'Ivoire 625 620 895 1,000 1,000

959 Greece 1,017 1,076 1,355 1,550 1,500

5,764 India 4,550 5,182 3,511 3,800 3,600

1,000 Mali 1,100 1,300 1,350 1,300 1,300

9,153 United States 14,917 16,279 14,763 16,500 16,500

7,623 Other 6,668 6,343 6,909 6,573 6,544

34,701 Total 37,852 41,514 41,348 43,848 43,544

Ending Stocks none

1,515 Bangladesh 1,630 1,855 1,583 1,605 1,613

5,709 Brazil 6,929 8,657 12,256 12,101 12,681

56,698 China 45,919 37,993 35,670 32,745 33,745

7,044 India 7,880 9,225 9,314 12,714 13,014

2,615 Pakistan 2,315 2,830 2,495 2,170 2,370

1,533 Turkey 1,528 1,777 1,594 1,644 1,544

3,800 United States 2,750 4,200 4,850 5,400 5,400

11,235 Other 11,337 14,298 12,225 11,213 11,753

90,149 Total 80,288 80,835 79,987 79,592 82,120


Table 04 Cotton Area, Yield, and Production

From last month From last year

MBalesPercent

Yield

(Kilograms per hectare)

Feb 2017/18 MBales

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production

(Million 480 lb. bales)

Change in Production

2017/18

Prel.

2018/19 Jan Jan

Prel.

2018/19 Feb

Prel.

2018/19 Jan Feb Percent

2019/20 Proj.2019/20 Proj. 2019/20 Proj.

2017/18

33.72World 2.302.730.710.85121.3333.48 34.50 34.48 799 771 760 766 123.78 118.60 120.48

4.49United States 9.451.740.000.0020.104.13 4.78 4.78 1,014 968 916 916 20.92 18.37 20.10

29.23Total Foreign 0.990.990.850.85101.2329.35 29.72 29.70 766 744 735 742 102.86 100.24 100.38

none

Western Hemisphere

1.18 Brazil -2.31-0.301.600.2012.701.64 1.62 1.65 1,708 1,726 1,680 1,676 9.22 13.00 12.50

0.21 Mexico -9.51-0.170.000.001.570.24 0.23 0.23 1,617 1,555 1,519 1,519 1.56 1.74 1.57

0.32 Argentina -10.71-0.120.000.001.000.38 0.36 0.36 558 642 605 605 0.82 1.12 1.00

0.01 Paraguay 0.000.000.000.000.020.01 0.01 0.01 416 416 416 416 0.02 0.02 0.02

0.02 Peru -9.57-0.010.000.000.090.02 0.02 0.02 1,118 1,077 1,028 1,028 0.08 0.09 0.09

0.01 Colombia 16.670.010.000.000.070.01 0.02 0.02 968 1,306 1,016 1,016 0.04 0.06 0.07

Africa

0.85 Burkina 17.650.150.000.001.000.63 0.58 0.58 307 294 379 379 1.20 0.85 1.00

0.71 Mali 6.300.080.000.001.350.73 0.74 0.74 432 381 400 400 1.40 1.27 1.35

0.33 Cote d'Ivoire 6.720.060.000.001.000.39 0.43 0.43 536 520 512 512 0.81 0.94 1.00

0.23 Cameroon 7.500.050.000.000.650.25 0.26 0.26 484 523 540 540 0.50 0.60 0.65

0.53 Benin 3.570.050.000.001.450.65 0.68 0.68 468 469 468 468 1.14 1.40 1.45

0.12 Chad 125.000.050.000.000.090.06 0.13 0.13 181 145 151 151 0.10 0.04 0.09

0.16 Togo 3.920.010.000.000.270.18 0.19 0.19 299 308 312 312 0.22 0.26 0.27

0.02 Senegal -13.790.000.000.000.030.02 0.02 0.02 359 301 320 320 0.03 0.03 0.03

0.09 Egypt -30.00-0.150.000.000.350.14 0.10 0.10 718 772 762 762 0.30 0.50 0.35

0.20 Zimbabwe -5.00-0.010.000.000.190.20 0.20 0.20 294 218 207 207 0.27 0.20 0.19

0.27 Nigeria 0.000.000.000.000.240.27 0.27 0.27 190 190 190 190 0.24 0.24 0.24

Asia Oceania

3.40 China -1.80-0.500.000.0027.253.50 3.45 3.45 1,761 1,726 1,720 1,720 27.50 27.75 27.25

12.60 India 14.343.700.000.0029.5012.60 13.00 13.00 501 446 494 494 29.00 25.80 29.50

2.70 Pakistan -13.16-1.008.200.506.602.30 2.50 2.50 661 719 531 575 8.20 7.60 6.10

0.13 Kazakhstan 4.350.020.000.000.360.13 0.12 0.12 523 587 670 670 0.30 0.35 0.36

0.19 Tajikistan 6.020.030.000.000.440.18 0.18 0.18 671 502 532 532 0.57 0.42 0.44

0.55 Turkmenistan 9.890.090.000.001.000.55 0.55 0.55 535 364 399 399 1.34 0.91 1.00

1.25 Uzbekistan 6.870.230.000.003.501.10 1.05 1.05 672 648 726 726 3.86 3.28 3.50

0.47 Turkey -8.11-0.300.000.003.400.52 0.56 0.56 1,853 1,549 1,322 1,322 4.00 3.70 3.40

0.53 Australia -69.32-1.530.000.000.680.38 0.06 0.06 1,972 1,261 2,449 2,449 4.80 2.20 0.68

0.03 Syria 0.000.000.000.000.140.03 0.03 0.03 1,161 1,219 1,219 1,219 0.16 0.14 0.14

0.25 Burma 0.000.000.000.000.700.24 0.24 0.24 634 635 635 635 0.73 0.70 0.70

Europe

0.23 Greece 17.020.240.000.001.650.25 0.28 0.28 1,157 1,253 1,283 1,283 1.22 1.41 1.65

1.68Others 8.810.323.930.153.971.76 1.89 1.84 420 450 439 468 3.24 3.65 3.82

Note: Yeild for Total Foreign and Others is an incorrect calculation.


(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Table 05 Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2019/20

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 35030826536 Afghanistan 17

0 001211 Albania 1

30 00303500 Algeria 5

10 00152252 Angola 7

15 50005501,5311,000360 Argentina 481

0 000000 Armenia 0

0 1,3000352,24767560 Australia 912

15 00151800 Austria 3

0 350080511450140 Azerbaijan 81

40 00404800 Bahrain 8

7,200 0107,3008,92314045 Bangladesh 1,613

40 00404600 Belarus 6

30 100203600 Belgium-Luxembour 6

0 1,4000151,6781,450675 Benin 263

2 00101484 Bolivia 4

25 8,90003,40024,98112,7001,650 Brazil 12,681

25 003542102 Bulgaria 7

0 9000251,1401,000575 Burkina 215

75 50775994700240 Burma 214

1 001200 Cambodia 1

0 600020789645260 Cameroon 169

2 002200 Canada 0

0 3200443232 Central African Republic 12

0 9001015190130 Chad 51

0 000000 Chile 0

8,500 175037,50071,42027,2503,450 China 33,745

65 501301647015 Colombia 29

2 0017211530 Congo (Kinshasa) 4

42 00455711 Costa Rica 12

0 1,0000251,2921,000425 Cote d'Ivoire 267

0 000000 Croatia 0

10 00141644 Cuba 2

0 000000 Cyprus 0

7 007900 Czech Republic 2

0 000000 Denmark 0


(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Table 05 Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2019/20 (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

1 004534 Dominican Republic 1

60 00708693 Ecuador 16

500 250106301,104350100 Egypt 214

180 0018022411 El Salvador 44

15 00151800 Estonia 3

40 10029536025080 Ethiopia 55

40 50354800 France 8

90 1008010600 Germany 16

0 20010392816 Ghana 9

30 1,50025901,7451,650280 Greece 130

150 0015018732 Guatemala 37

0 1400171412 Guinea 3

5 00101157 Haiti 1

26 00303542 Honduras 5

5 500800 Hong Kong 3

3 300300 Hungary 0

2,300 3,600024,50041,11429,50013,000 India 13,014

3,050 503,0503,58533 Indonesia 530

300 0057572027580 Iran 145

35 0050731510 Iraq 23

0 000000 Ireland 0

2 400456435 Israel 12

160 5015518100 Italy 21

230 0023026400 Japan 34

0 300065503360117 Kazakhstan 138

15 0040582530 Kenya 18

95 001502055519 Korea, North 55

600 15062576100 Korea, South 121

0 1100012011018 Kyrgyzstan 10

7 106900 Latvia 2

5 005600 Lebanon 1

90 009011500 Lesotho 25

0 000000 Lithuania 0

5 005600 Macedonia 1

0 10020453020 Madagascar 15


(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 75051499080 Malawi 69

1,000 45003751,54600 Malaysia 721

0 1,3000251,8211,350735 Mali 496

120 0012014100 Mauritius 21

800 425251,9503,1351,570225 Mexico 735

70 00658200 Moldova 17

35 00354311 Morocco 8

0 10005186115125 Mozambique 81

15 00151700 Netherlands 2

0 90112104 Nicaragua 2

0 6031495 Niger 5

10 300200314235270 Nigeria 84

4,200 1002510,80013,2956,6002,500 Pakistan 2,370

0 000000 Panama 0

8 15014362111 Paraguay 7

220 503003928518 Peru 87

65 00657821 Philippines 13

17 00172000 Poland 3

170 0017021100 Portugal 41

1 001200 Romania 1

100 0011012900 Russia 19

0 2500302517 Senegal 5

8 0081000 Serbia 2

3 500600 Singapore 1

1 001100 Slovakia 0

8 0081000 Slovenia 2

3 001011712 Somalia 1

50 16009048521545 South Africa 235

15 27502035830065 Spain 63

5 00101255 Sri Lanka 2

0 500075739600200 Sudan 164

0 000000 Sweden 0

2 002300 Switzerland 1

0 5006516414025 Syria 49

525 6053066900 Taiwan 133


(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 375070746440180 Tajikistan 301

0 2500175750500450 Tanzania 325

975 0259751,15421 Thailand 154

0 250015342265185 Togo 77

20 003035102 Tunisia 5

4,100 35007,2009,0943,400560 Turkey 1,544

0 25008251,6291,000545 Turkmenistan 554

0 15001529317075 Uganda 128

5 005600 Ukraine 1

2 002300 United Kingdom 1

5 16,500573,00024,95720,1024,777 United States 5,400

0 000000 Uruguay 0

0 30003,3004,6583,5001,050 Uzbekistan 1,058

15 00901208515 Venezuela 30

6,800 006,8007,99131 Vietnam 1,191

0 3025342818 Yemen 6

0 20005448210130 Zambia 243

0 1751030349190200 Zimbabwe 134

World

43,548 43,544187119,013244,864121,32934,479 World 82,120


(1000 MT and 1000 HA)

Table 05A Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2019/20

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 807181436 Afghanistan 4

0 000001 Albania 0

7 007800 Algeria 1

2 003512 Angola 2

3 1090120333218360 Argentina 105

0 000000 Armenia 0

0 2830848914760 Australia 199

3 003400 Austria 1

0 7601711198140 Azerbaijan 18

9 0091000 Bahrain 2

1,568 021,5891,9433045 Bangladesh 351

9 0091000 Belarus 1


0 30503365316675 Benin 57

0 002324 Bolivia 1

5 1,93807405,4392,7651,650 Brazil 2,761

5 008922 Bulgaria 2

0 19605248218575 Burkina 47

16 10169216152240 Burma 47

0 000000 Cambodia 0

0 13104172140260 Cameroon 37

0 000000 Canada 0


0 20023320130 Chad 11

0 000000 Chile 0

1,851 3808,16515,5505,9333,450 China 7,347

14 1028361515 Colombia 6


9 00101201 Costa Rica 3

0 21805281218425 Cote d'Ivoire 58

0 000000 Croatia 0

2 003314 Cuba 0

0 000000 Cyprus 0


0 000000 Denmark 0


(1000 MT and 1000 HA)

Table 05A Cotton Supply and Distribution MY 2019/20 (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country


13 00151923 Ecuador 3

109 54213724076100 Egypt 47

39 00394901 El Salvador 10

3 003400 Estonia 1

9 2064785480 Ethiopia 12

9 1081000 France 2

20 20172300 Germany 3

0 4028616 Ghana 2

7 327520380359280 Greece 28

33 00334112 Guatemala 8

0 3004312 Guinea 1

1 002217 Haiti 0

6 007812 Honduras 1


1 100100 Hungary 0

501 78405,3348,9526,42313,000 India 2,833

664 1066478113 Indonesia 115

65 001251576080 Iran 32

8 001116310 Iraq 5

0 000000 Ireland 0

0 9011295 Israel 3

35 10343900 Italy 5

50 00505700 Japan 7

0 6501411078117 Kazakhstan 30

3 00913530 Kenya 4

21 0033451219 Korea, North 12

131 3013616600 Korea, South 26

0 2400262418 Kyrgyzstan 2

2 001200 Latvia 0

1 001100 Lebanon 0

20 00202500 Lesotho 5



0 20410720 Madagascar 3


(1000 MT and 1000 HA)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 1601322080 Malawi 15

218 9808233700 Malaysia 157

0 28305396294735 Mali 108

26 00263100 Mauritius 5

174 935425683342225 Mexico 160

15 00141800 Moldova 4

8 008901 Morocco 2

0 22014025125 Mozambique 18



0 101325 Niger 1

2 70446851270 Nigeria 18

914 2252,3512,8951,4372,500 Pakistan 516

0 000000 Panama 0

2 3038511 Paraguay 2

48 1065851918 Peru 19


4 004400 Poland 1

37 00374600 Portugal 9

0 000000 Romania 0

22 00242800 Russia 4

0 5007517 Senegal 1

2 002200 Serbia 0


0 000000 Slovakia 0

2 002200 Slovenia 0

1 0022212 Somalia 0

11 350201064745 South Africa 51

3 6004786565 Spain 14

1 002315 Sri Lanka 0

0 109016161131200 Sudan 36

0 000000 Sweden 0


0 11014363025 Syria 11

114 1011514600 Taiwan 29


(1000 MT and 1000 HA)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 8201516296180 Tajikistan 66

0 54038163109450 Tanzania 71

212 0521225101 Thailand 34

0 54037458185 Togo 17

4 007822 Tunisia 1

893 7601,5681,980740560 Turkey 336

0 540180355218545 Turkmenistan 121

0 3303643775 Uganda 28

1 001100 Ukraine 0


1 3,592126535,4344,3774,777 United States 1,176

0 000000 Uruguay 0

0 6507181,0147621,050 Uzbekistan 230

3 0020261915 Venezuela 7

1,481 001,4811,74011 Vietnam 259

0 1057618 Yemen 1

0 44019846130 Zambia 53

0 38277641200 Zimbabwe 29

World

9,482 9,4814125,91253,31326,41734,479 World 17,880


(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Table 06: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country 2018/19

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 35030826536 Afghanistan 17

0 001211 Albania 1

30 00303500 Algeria 5

10 00152252 Angola 7

5 54505751,6361,120380 Argentina 516

0 000000 Armenia 0

0 3,6320355,2392,200380 Australia 1,572

15 10141800 Austria 3

0 384075520390130 Azerbaijan 61

40 00404800 Bahrain 8

6,900 0107,3008,89313844 Bangladesh 1,583

42 00404600 Belarus 6


0 1,4000151,6431,400650 Benin 228

2 00101484 Bolivia 4

17 6,01803,40021,67413,0001,640 Brazil 12,256

25 003643102 Bulgaria 7

0 9400251,105850630 Burkina 140

75 50775999700240 Burma 219

1 001200 Cambodia 1

0 575020739600250 Cameroon 144

2 002200 Canada 0


0 1000101714060 Chad 61

0 000000 Chile 0

9,640 213039,50075,38327,7503,500 China 35,670

84 051451796010 Colombia 29


45 00455911 Costa Rica 14

0 8950251,212937392 Cote d'Ivoire 292

0 000000 Croatia 0

10 00141644 Cuba 2

0 000000 Cyprus 0


0 000000 Denmark 0


(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Table 06: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country 2018/19 (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country


60 00708793 Ecuador 17

520 350106001,214500141 Egypt 254

177 0017021311 El Salvador 43

14 00131600 Estonia 3

30 8027535324377 Ethiopia 70

36 20374700 France 8

86 1308010900 Germany 16

0 15010362816 Ghana 11

31 1,35525901,5351,410245 Greece 65

148 0014517932 Guatemala 34

0 1400171412 Guinea 3

5 00101157 Haiti 1

25 00293442 Honduras 5


3 300300 Hungary 0

1,800 3,511024,00036,82525,80012,600 India 9,314

3,051 603,1503,68833 Indonesia 532

300 0057572027580 Iran 145

35 0050731510 Iraq 23

0 000000 Ireland 0

2 450460425 Israel 11

159 5015518100 Italy 21

230 0023526900 Japan 34

0 275065483345128 Kazakhstan 143

15 0040582530 Kenya 18

95 001502055519 Korea, North 55

781 7080096800 Korea, South 161

0 1000011010518 Kyrgyzstan 10

7 106900 Latvia 2

5 005600 Lebanon 1

85 008511000 Lesotho 25



0 10020453020 Madagascar 15


(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 70051349070 Malawi 59

744 31303501,20900 Malaysia 546

0 1,3500251,8461,270725 Mali 471

120 0012014100 Mauritius 21

850 500251,9503,2401,735243 Mexico 765

60 00607200 Moldova 12

29 00354211 Morocco 7

0 10005176106125 Mozambique 71



0 6031495 Niger 5

10 300200299235270 Nigeria 69

2,850 602510,70013,2807,6002,300 Pakistan 2,495

0 000000 Panama 0

2 11014322111 Paraguay 7

214 203003899419 Peru 87


16 10162000 Poland 3

174 4017021500 Portugal 41

1 001200 Romania 1

150 2016019100 Russia 29

0 2502322921 Senegal 5

8 0081000 Serbia 2


1 001100 Slovakia 0

7 007900 Slovenia 2

3 001011712 Somalia 1

68 13808944722244 South Africa 220

10 32202038530065 Spain 43

3 00101255 Sri Lanka 2

0 425075639500180 Sudan 139

0 000000 Sweden 0


0 9006517914025 Syria 24

592 0060074400 Taiwan 144


(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseTotal

Supply

ImportsProductio

n

Country

0 350055711415180 Tajikistan 306

0 2000175625375420 Tanzania 250

1,075 1251,0751,27821 Thailand 177

0 225015317255180 Togo 77

20 003035102 Tunisia 5

3,499 48206,9008,9763,700520 Turkey 1,594

0 15008001,579910545 Turkmenistan 629

0 12501526316174 Uganda 123

3 003400 Ukraine 1


3 14,763-182,97522,57018,3674,130 United States 4,850

0 000000 Uruguay 0

0 75002,8004,7083,2751,100 Uzbekistan 1,158

12 001001208515 Venezuela 20

6,900 007,0008,18831 Vietnam 1,188

0 2025332818 Yemen 6

0 15605399200125 Zambia 238

0 1751030374200200 Zimbabwe 159

World

42,203 41,348117120,189241,641118,60333,478 World 79,987


(1,000 Metric Tons)

Table 06A: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country 2018/19

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

ExportsLossUseImportsProductio

n

Country

0 48071436 Afghanistan

0 000001 Albania

7 100700 Algeria

2 200312 Angola

1 1121190125244380 Argentina

0 000000 Armenia

0 34279108479380 Australia

3 100300 Austria

0 138401685130 Azerbaijan

9 200900 Bahrain

1,502 345021,5893044 Bangladesh

9 100900 Belarus

7 120400 Belgium-Luxembour

0 5030503305650 Benin

0 100224 Bolivia

4 2,6681,31007402,8301,640 Brazil

5 200822 Bulgaria

0 3020505185630 Burkina

16 4810169152240 Burma

0 000000 Cambodia

0 3112504131250 Cameroon

0 000000 Canada

0 3700732 Central African Republic

0 132202960 Chad

0 000000 Chile

2,099 7,7664608,6006,0423,500 China

18 601321310 Colombia

0 1004330 Congo (Kinshasa)

10 3001001 Costa Rica

0 6419505204392 Cote d'Ivoire

0 000000 Croatia

2 000314 Cuba

0 000000 Cyprus

2 000200 Czech Republic

0 000000 Denmark


(1,000 Metric Tons)

Table 06A: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country 2018/19 (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks


n

Country

0 000114 Dominican Republic

13 4001523 Ecuador

113 55762131109141 Egypt

39 9003701 El Salvador

3 100300 Estonia

7 1520605377 Ethiopia

8 200800 France

19 3301700 Germany

0 2302616 Ghana

7 14295520307245 Greece

32 7003212 Guatemala

0 1300312 Guinea

1 000217 Haiti

5 100612 Honduras

2 110000 Hong Kong

1 010000 Hungary

392 2,02876405,2255,61712,600 India

664 1161068613 Indonesia

65 32001256080 Iran

8 50011310 Iraq

0 000000 Ireland

0 2100195 Israel

35 5103400 Italy

50 7005100 Japan

0 316001475128 Kazakhstan

3 4009530 Kenya

21 1200331219 Korea, North

170 352017400 Korea, South

0 222002318 Kyrgyzstan

2 000100 Latvia

1 000100 Lebanon

19 5001900 Lesotho

0 000000 Lithuania

1 000100 Macedonia

0 3204720 Madagascar


(1,000 Metric Tons)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks


n

Country

0 1315012070 Malawi

162 1196807600 Malaysia

0 10329405277725 Mali

26 5002600 Mauritius

185 1671095425378243 Mexico

13 3001300 Moldova

6 200801 Morocco

0 15220123125 Mozambique

3 000300 Netherlands

0 020024 Nicaragua

0 110125 Niger

2 15704451270 Nigeria

621 5431352,3301,6552,300 Pakistan

0 000000 Panama

0 2203511 Paraguay

47 1900652019 Peru

13 2001401 Philippines

3 100300 Poland

38 9103700 Portugal

0 000000 Romania

33 6003500 Russia

0 1500621 Senegal

2 000200 Serbia

0 100000 Singapore

0 000000 Slovakia

2 000200 Slovenia

1 0002212 Somalia

15 48300194844 South Africa

2 970046565 Spain

1 000215 Sri Lanka

0 3093016109180 Sudan

0 000000 Sweden

0 000000 Switzerland

0 5200143025 Syria

129 310013100 Taiwan


(1,000 Metric Tons)


Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks


n

Country

0 677601290180 Tajikistan

0 544403882420 Tanzania

234 390523401 Thailand

0 17490356180 Togo

4 100722 Tunisia

762 34710501,502806520 Turkey

0 137330174198545 Turkmenistan

0 2727033574 Uganda

1 000100 Ukraine

0 000000 United Kingdom

1 1,0563,214-46483,9994,130 United States

0 000000 Uruguay

0 25216306107131,100 Uzbekistan

3 400221915 Venezuela

1,502 259001,52411 Vietnam

0 1005618 Yemen

0 52340144125 Zambia

0 35382744200 Zimbabwe

World

9,189 17,4159,0032526,16825,82333,478 World


Table 09: World Cotton Supply and Distribution

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Country Mktg

Year

Beginning

Stocks

Area

Harvested

Production Imports Total

Supply

Exports Use Loss Total Dom.

Cons.

Ending

Stocks

Stock to

Use %

World

3631,05785,88064285,23833,481150,41833,58284,22233,83132,614 1988/89

2924,98487,13923486,90531,357143,48032,70379,72031,69631,057 1989/90

3227,47385,69417085,52429,560142,72730,57887,16533,15324,984 1990/91

4336,97186,55636886,18828,204151,73129,02495,23434,75827,473 1991/92

4034,51086,4006386,33725,435146,34527,06782,30732,64336,971 1992/93

3327,83385,70314385,56026,620140,15627,96777,67930,71834,510 1993/94

3832,02084,292-33084,62228,118144,43030,30086,29732,25027,833 1994/95

4740,13585,396-54485,94027,396152,92727,00493,90335,92032,020 1995/96

5144,63987,351-58587,93626,777158,76728,57990,05333,74040,135 1996/97

5749,47386,686-58187,26726,777162,93625,92992,36833,79744,639 1997/98

6252,85883,651-1,11484,76523,517160,02624,48086,07332,88549,473 1998/99

5651,14490,490-60291,09227,126168,76027,99387,90932,35052,858 1999/00

5449,56290,724-1,42492,14826,156166,44226,20989,08932,01151,144 2000/01

5854,68093,601-78194,38229,081177,36229,29798,50333,71749,562 2001/02

4947,88297,608-80498,41230,400175,89030,18891,02230,77954,680 2002/03

4948,37697,179-90998,08833,152178,70734,15096,67532,25847,882 2003/04

5660,977107,960-1,245109,20534,949203,88633,965121,54535,75948,376 2004/05

5361,906115,178-1,793116,97144,922222,00644,668116,36134,49460,977 2005/06

5162,987122,493-1,715124,20837,416222,89638,305122,68534,70561,906 2006/07

5061,878121,743-2,094123,83738,868222,48939,453120,04932,87862,987 2007/08

5661,453108,860-1,436110,29630,207200,52030,573108,06930,62261,878 2008/09

3946,179119,482-12119,49435,804201,46536,928103,08430,18761,453 2009/10

4349,288115,611119115,49234,875199,77436,297117,29833,82646,179 2010/11

6972,055103,906-210104,11645,994221,95545,423127,24436,05649,288 2011/12

8389,336107,900-343108,24346,350243,58647,630123,90134,31672,055 2012/13

9199,904109,99892109,90640,997250,89941,204120,35932,85589,336 2013/14

95106,739112,499268112,23135,948255,18636,065119,21733,86599,904 2014/15

8090,149113,496264113,23234,701238,34635,44496,16330,752106,739 2015/16

6980,288116,383206116,17737,852234,52337,697106,67729,81190,149 2016/17

6680,835122,878117122,76141,514245,22741,160123,77933,72280,288 2017/18

6779,987120,306117120,18941,348241,64142,203118,60333,47880,835 2018/19

6982,120119,200187119,01343,544244,86443,548121,32934,47979,987 2019/20


Table 10: United States Cotton Supply and Distribution

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Country Mktg

Year

Area

Harvested

Yield Beginning

Stocks


Supply

Exports Use Loss Ending

Stocks

Stock to

Use %

United States

517,0921657,7826,14821,187515,4115,7716944,835 1988/89

183,000-1638,7597,69419,290212,1967,0926883,860 1989/90

142,344-2858,6577,79318,509415,5053,0007114,748 1990/91

233,70489,6136,64619,9711317,6142,3447315,245 1991/92

304,662-19010,2505,20119,923116,2183,7047854,501 1992/93

203,530-810,4186,86220,802616,1344,6626795,173 1993/94

132,650-3811,1989,40223,2122019,6623,5307945,391 1994/95

142,6092710,6477,67520,95840817,9002,6506026,478 1995/96

223,971-811,1266,86521,95440318,9422,6097915,216 1996/97

213,8874111,3497,50022,7771318,7933,9717545,425 1997/98

273,939-39410,4014,29818,24443913,9183,8877014,324 1998/99

233,91514510,1946,75021,0049716,9683,9396805,433 1999/00

386,000-4838,8626,74021,1191617,1883,9157085,282 2000/01

407,4481807,69611,00026,3242120,3036,0007905,596 2001/02

285,3851667,27311,90024,7246717,2097,4487465,025 2002/03

173,4502116,26613,75823,6854518,2555,3858184,858 2003/04

265,4951086,69114,43626,7302923,2513,4509585,284 2004/05

266,069-2005,87117,67329,4132823,8905,4959315,586 2005/06

539,4793034,93512,95927,6761921,5886,0699125,152 2006/07

5510,0514294,58413,63428,6981219,2079,4799854,245 2007/08

386,337-2633,54113,26122,876012,82510,0519123,063 2008/09

192,947-143,55012,03718,520012,1836,3378703,049 2009/10

142,6001823,90014,37621,058918,1022,9479104,330 2010/11

223,350-1723,30011,71418,1921915,5732,6008863,829 2011/12

233,8003483,50013,02620,6741017,3143,3509993,772 2012/13

172,3502923,55010,53016,7221312,9093,8009213,051 2013/14

253,6502103,57511,24618,6811216,3192,3509393,785 2014/15

303,8001683,4509,15316,5713312,8883,6508593,268 2015/16

152,750603,25014,91720,977717,1703,8009723,848 2016/17

224,200-283,22516,27923,676320,9232,7501,0144,492 2017/18

274,850-182,97514,76322,570318,3674,2009684,130 2018/19

285,400573,00016,50024,957520,1024,8509164,777 2019/20


Table 11: Foreign Cotton Supply and Distribution

(1,000 HA and 1000 480-lb. Bales)

Country Mktg

Year

Area

Harvested

Yield Beginning

Stocks


Supply

Exports Use Loss Ending

Stocks

Total Foreign

23,96547777,45627,333129,23133,57768,81126,84351728,996 1988/89

21,98439778,14623,663124,19032,70167,52423,96552827,836 1989/90

25,12945576,86721,767124,21830,57471,66021,98454928,405 1990/91

33,26736076,57521,558131,76029,01177,62025,12957329,513 1991/92

29,84825376,08720,234126,42227,06666,08933,26751128,142 1992/93

24,30315175,14219,758119,35427,96161,54529,84852525,545 1993/94

29,370-29273,42418,716121,21830,28066,63524,30354026,859 1994/95

37,526-57175,29319,721131,96926,59676,00329,37056229,442 1995/96

40,668-57776,81019,912136,81328,17671,11137,52654328,524 1996/97

45,586-62275,91819,277140,15925,91673,57540,66856528,372 1997/98

48,919-72074,36419,219141,78224,04172,15545,58655028,561 1998/99

47,229-74780,89820,376147,75627,89670,94148,91957426,917 1999/00

43,562-94183,28619,416145,32326,19371,90147,22958626,729 2000/01

47,232-96186,68618,081151,03829,27678,20043,56260528,121 2001/02

42,497-97091,13918,500151,16630,12173,81347,23262425,754 2002/03

44,926-1,12091,82219,394155,02234,10578,42042,49762327,400 2003/04

55,482-1,353102,51420,513177,15633,93698,29444,92670230,475 2004/05

55,837-1,593111,10027,249192,59344,64092,47155,48269628,908 2005/06

53,508-2,018119,27324,457195,22038,286101,09755,83774529,553 2006/07

51,827-2,523119,25325,234193,79139,441100,84253,50876728,633 2007/08

55,116-1,173106,75516,946177,64430,57395,24451,82775227,559 2008/09

43,2322115,94423,767182,94536,92890,90155,11672927,138 2009/10

46,688-63111,59220,499178,71636,28899,19643,23273229,496 2010/11

68,705-38100,81634,280203,76345,404111,67146,68875432,227 2011/12

85,536-691104,74333,324222,91247,620106,58768,70576030,544 2012/13

97,554-200106,35630,467234,17741,191107,45085,53678529,804 2013/14

103,08958108,65624,702236,50536,053102,89897,55474530,080 2014/15

86,34996109,78225,548221,77535,41183,275103,08966027,484 2015/16

77,538146112,92722,935213,54637,69089,50786,34975125,963 2016/17

76,635145119,53625,235221,55141,157102,85677,53876629,230 2017/18

75,137135117,21426,585219,07142,200100,23676,63574429,348 2018/19

76,720130116,01327,044219,90743,543101,22775,13774229,702 2019/20


Cotton: World Markets and Trade - Cornell University

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Transcript of Cotton: World Markets and Trade - Cornell University