Costos de l’energia i competitivitat de la - Bienvenidos · Coste de cash y coste de producción...
33
Costos de l’energia i competitivitat de la industria química a nivell mundial. El impacte de l’aparició del gas no convencional Alex de Mur – Principal BCG – 26 de Maig 2016
Transcript of Costos de l’energia i competitivitat de la - Bienvenidos · Coste de cash y coste de producción...
Costos de l’energia i competitivitat de la
industria química a nivell mundial. El
impacte de l’aparició del gas no
convencional
Alex de Mur – Principal BCG – 26 de Maig 2016
FGNF quimica y energia 25May16 vf.pptx 1
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La demanda de químicos crece más rápido que las de
crudo y gas
Crecimiento esperado de los mercados
de PE y PP de un ~4,5% p.a. en la
próxima década...
250
200
150
100
50
0
Demanda global
de PE y PP (Mt/año)
4,4 %
3,5 %
2025E
228
2020E
188
2015
148
2010
124
2006
109
Source: Nexant, EIA International Energy Outlook 2010, World Oil Outlook 2015 OPEP Table 5.1, BP Statistical Review, BCG analysis
10197
93
8683
0
40
80
120
Millones de barriles de
petróleo por día (mboe/d)
+0,9 %
+1,3 %
2025E 2020E 2015 2010 2006
PP PEAD PELBD PEBD
...mientras que se espera un crecimiento moderado en
los mercados de petróleo y gas
5.000
2.500
4.500
4.000
3.500
3.000
2.000
1.500
1.000
500
0
3.203
2006
2.893
Miles de millones metros cúbicos
(bcm3/año) de Gas Natural
+1,4 %
+2,1 %
2025E
4.008
2020E
3.813
2015
3.488
2010
FGNF quimica y energia 25May16 vf.pptx 2
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Cloro
Materias primas Componentes
fundamentales
Intermedios
básicos
Intermedios
avanzados
Ácido acrílico y acrilatos
Nafta
Sal
Carbón, GNL
LGN
Gas de síntesis
Etileno
Propileno
Sosa cáustica
Butadieno
Tolueno
Xilenos
Metanol
Amoníaco
Benceno
Óxido de propileno
Acrilonitrilo
Óxido de propileno
HMDA
Cumeno
EDC
Óxido de etileno
Ciclohexano
Nitrobenceno
Ácido acético
Formaldehído
p-xileno
o-xileno
Ácido nítrico
Etilbenceno
Propilenglicol
Polioles
Fenol
CVM
Etilenglicol
Caprolactama
MDI
TDI
VAM
DMT/PTA
Anhídrido ftálico
Estireno
Poliuretanos
Fibra acrílica
ABS
Polipropileno
Cauchos
Nylon 6,6
Policarbonatos
PET
PVC
Polietilenos
Nylon 6
Fibras de poliéster
PVAc
Poliuretanos
Adesivos
Plastificantes
Pinturas y revestimientos
Anticongelante
MTBE
Poliestireno
Polímeros
Especiales
La mayoría de las materias primas de la química son
combustibles fósiles
GNL gas natural licuado, LGN líquidos de gas natural Nota: Incluye contenido proporcionado por IHS Global Inc. Copyright © IHS Global Inc., 2015. Todos los derechos reservados. Fuente: IHS DCP 2015
72
Producción Mundial 2015 (MMt)
178
140
74
83
93
11
56
30
45
Urea
FGNF quimica y energia 25May16 vf.pptx 3
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La materia prima es el principal coste en muchos de los
procesos químicos
1. Operadores, capataces y supervisores, gastos generales, de ventas y administración 2. Agua, catalizadores, químicos y otros Nota: Capacidad de 300kt/año de PE. Asumiendo Etileno a 968€/t (2015), electricidad a 50€/Mwh, una tasa de cambio EUR/USD de 1,12, interés de 8%/año e impuestos sobre la renta de un 35% Fuentes: Análisis BCG
3734
1.600
1.400
1.200
1.000
800
600
400
200
0
1.800
37
(4%)
Personal
y gastos
G,V y A1
29
(3%)
Gas
10
(1%)
Electricidad
19
(2%)
€/t de PE
Coste
cash total
Otros
costes2
D&A Retorno
de capital
1.133
Coste
producción
total
968
(91%)
Materia
prima
(etileno)
1.063
(100%)
Coste de cash y coste de producción total de una planta de PEAD
€/t de PE
FGNF quimica y energia 25May16 vf.pptx 4
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Los costes variables de gas y electricidad en una planta de
PEAD son más bajos en EEUU que en Europa Mientras que los precios de Polietileno son un 8% más bajos en EEUU
19
2819
10
0
10
20
30
-9
(-33%)
Gas2 Electricidad3
15
Total EEUU Total Europa Electricidad3 Gas2
€/t de PE
4
Costes variables de una planta de PEAD
entre Europa y EEUU (€/t de PE)1
1. Asumiendo eficiencias iguales de gas y electricidad en Europa y EEUU. 2. Precio de gas en EEUU – Henry Hub 2,7€/mbtu (3$/mbtu) y en Europa – 7,1€$/mbtun (8$/mbtu) 3. Precios de electricidad de 50€/Mwh en Europa y 40€/Mwh en EEUU Nota: tasa de cambio EUR/USD de 1,12 Fuentes: Datastream, EIA, IEA, Nexant, análisis BCG
Precios (€/t)
1.540
1.426
–8%
968
698
Polietileno Etileno
–28%
FGNF quimica y energia 25May16 vf.pptx 5
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En ambos escenarios de precios altos y bajos, el etano EEUU
es más ventajoso vs. Nafta Europa
Nota: De 2014 a 2015 se activó capacidad adicional, lo que explica cambios en el eje X. En el escenario extremo de precios bajos, nafta a 21,68 $c/libra. Alimentación mixta asume 70% nafta y 30% GLP cuando no se conoce la mezcla real. Costos de cash en la curva de oferta no incluyen depreciación ni retorno sobre capital empleado Fuente: Modelo de curva de oferta para productos petroquímicos, Nexant
150 135 120 105 90 75 60 45 30 15 0
1.800
1.500
1.200
900
600
300
0
165
Curva de oferta de etileno ($/t de etileno)
- precio medio 2014
Capacidad 2014 (Mt/año)
+741
1.035
295
Cracker vapor - nafta
Cracker vapor - etano
Cracker vapor – E/P
Cracker vapor – líquido pesado
Cracker vapor- alim. mixta
Conversión Metanol
1.800
1.500
1.200
900
600
300
0
30 15 0 135 120 105 90 75 60 45 165 150
Curva de oferta de etileno ($/t de etileno)
- bajos precios de petróleo/nafta
Capacidad 2015 (Mt/año)
+328
512
184
Precio
Brent
asumido:
~36 $/bbl
HH GN:
4$/Mbtu
Precio
Brent
medio,
2014:
~100
$/bbl
HH GN:
5$/Mbtu
Cracker de etano EEUU mediano Cracker de nafta europeo mediano
Aunque las diferencias se
reducen, la mayoría de actores
nafta siguen con desventaja
Incluso en el escenario
extremo, EEUU
mantiene su ventaja
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Las materias petroquímicas ya no se vinculan con el crudo El GN perdió esta vinculación por primera vez en '05/'06; luego el etano y el propano
1. Precio de materias primas/precio Brent 2. Precio de materias primas/precio de nafta Fuente: Nexant, Bloomberg, análisis BCG
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
1.75
1.50
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.00
2015
2014
2013
2012
0.27
0.36
0.62
0.46
Precios de materias primas petroquímicas en EE.UU. – Racio de precios de Brent2, en peso
Naphtha
HH NG
Ethane
Propane
Butane
Crude (Brent)
Materias primas de LGN vinculadas con el crudo
Los LGN fueron perdiendo su
vinculación con el crudo
FGNF quimica y energia 25May16 vf.pptx 7
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El etano es el componente del GN que permite producir más
etileno y su monetización alternativa es la más baja
Como materia prima del SC, el etano
produce un 80% de etileno
El etano tiene un valor alternativo
de 3-4$/Mbtu
1. También se generan otros productos de menor valor con el etano, el propano, el butano y la nafta: gas combustible, gasolina de pirólisis, benceno y buteno Nota: excepto en el caso del PELBD (polietileno lineal de baja densidad), el rendimiento de etileno para PE es del 99% Fuente: análisis BCG
82
45 4337
15 1618
55
6
6
100
75
50
25
0
Producción/rendimiento (%)
Etano
89
1
Etileno
Propileno
Butadieno
Hidrógeno puro
Nafta
63
3
Butano
68
4
Propano
69
3
C2 C3 C4 C5+
10
7
6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Propano FOB Etano
3-4
$/Mbtu
Nafta FOB Butano FOB
Similar al gas
natural
Tonelada de productos de alto valor por
cada tonelada de materia prima en el SC1
Valor alternativo de LGNs / NGLs
El precio depende del
mecanismo para fijar
el precio del etano y
del gas natural
GN HH a 3$/Mbtu y Brent a 60 $/bbl
FGNF quimica y energia 25May16 vf.pptx 8
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Etano y propano son los componentes de los que se puede
obtener más valor si se monetizan con petroquímica en un SC El metano es el gas natural del que se obtiene una monetización más baja mediante petroquímica
C1: Metano
C2: Etano
C3: Propano
C4: Butano
Gasolina
natural4
GN
EEUU1 Petroquímica GLP Gasolina
–
– –
–
–
3
3
3
3 8-15
3 10-15
78%
10%
6%
3%
2%
x%
x
Composición de un GN "rico" en LGNs
Valor en $/Mbtu, no se necesita Capex
–
x Valor en $/Mbtu, se necesita Capex 1. Precio del gas natural en USA y Europa a medio plazo 2. Monetización del metanol y la urea 3. Monetización en un SC como materia prima (el precio máximo tendrá un margen de explotación del 0%) 4. Asumiendo un punto de rocío elevado Fuente: YPF, análisis BCG
Valor añadido
6-82
15-173
13-153
11-133
10-123
9-11
6-8
GN
Europa1
8
8
8
8
8
FGNF quimica y energia 25May16 vf.pptx 9
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La producción de LGN en EE.UU. se ha disparado desde 2008 Crecimiento vinculado con el desarrollo de shale gas y la apuesta más reciente por el shale wet gas
25
0
175
150
125
100
75
50 9
24
17
19
7 8
23
16
19
7 8
24
17 27
37
14
13
34
24
Etano
Propano
Butano normal
Isobutano
Gasolina natural
2020E
173
2019E
167
2018E
160
2017E
145
2016E
140
20
15
140
20
14
125
20
13
108
2012
100
20
11
88
20
10
86
LNG en EE.UU. procedentes del procesamiento de gas natural (Mt/a)
20
09
80 2
00
8
76
20
07
76
20
06
74
20
05
74
20
04
79
20
03
75
31
11
12
30
25
27
49
20
49
14
40
9
11
28
23
20
8
11
26
22
22
8
10
25
20
8 9
25
16
19
7 10
24
19
21
7 10
24
18
20
7 9
23
18
19
6
49
36
28
42
16
15
38
14
34
31
43
16
14
47
19
14
39
47
44
17
14
37
39
42
15
Fuente: EIA; Wells Fargo (mayo de 2016)
Desarrollo de la tecnología de
fracking
FGNF quimica y energia 25May16 vf.pptx 10
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La curva de la demanda de etano es binaria: petroquímica o
valor del combustible – Dos mecanismos para fijar el precio
Ejemplo de curva de demanda de etano
Valor en uso ($/bbl)
Cantidad
suministrada (Mt)
Exceso de oferta en 2015
Valor BTU
(vs. GN)
Nafta Butano Propano
Precio del etano
al valor del combustible
Valo
r del com
bustible
Mate
riale
s d
el S
C
Valo
r de la m
ezcla
Mate
riale
s d
el S
C
Valo
r de la m
ezcla
Mate
riale
s d
el S
C
Precio del etano al valor de sustitución vs.
otras materias primas del SC
Nafta Butano Gas natural Propano
Fuente: análisis BCG
1
FGNF quimica y energia 25May16 vf.pptx 11
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Más de 10 Mt/año en nuevas expansiones de crackers de
etano en EEUU entre 2012 y 2018
Texas:
Nueva:
Baytown (1,5Mt/a, 2016)
Point Comfort (0,8Mt/a, 2016)
Ingleside (0,55 Mt/a, 2016)
Freeport (1,5 Mt/a, 2017)
Cedar Bayou (1,5 Mt/a, 2017)
Eliminación de cuellos de botella / expansión:
Chocolate Bayou (0,115 Mt/a, 2012)
Varios (0.66 Mt/a, 2013-15)
Luisiana:
Nueva:
Lake Charles (1.5 Mt/a, 2017-2018)
Eliminar cuellos de botella / expansión:
Hahnville (0,4 Mt/a, re-inicio 2012)
Geismar (0.3 Mt/a, 2012-13)
Lake Charles (0.22 Mt/a, 2012-14)
Pensilvania:
Nueva:
Monaca (1,0Mt/a, 2018)
Virginia Occidental:
Nueva:
Appalachian Resins: Wheeling
(0,5 Mt/a, 2015)
Región Marcellus
Kentucky:
Cuellos de botella / expansión:
Calvert City (0,08Mt/a,
2014)
Total EEUU a 2018
Nueva (8,9 Mt/a, 6,01
garantizada)
Eliminar cuellos de botella /
re-iniciar y cambiar a etano
(1,8 MT/año)
Total: 10,7 MT/a
OR
MT
ID WY
CA
NV UT
CO
AZ NM OK
KS
NE
SD
WA
ND MN
IA
MO
AR
WI
IL
MI
IN OH
NY
TN
VA
NC
SC
MS AL GA
FL
ME VT
PA
WV
KY
LA TX
5
4 2
3
1
7 8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Nota: MT/a = millones de toneladas métricas anuales 1. Aumentos de capacidad garantizada considerados como proyectos siendo diseñados y en construcción Fuente: Deutsche Bank (14 de marzo, 2013); análisis BCG
6
13
FGNF quimica y energia 25May16 vf.pptx 12
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~42% de la nueva capacidad instalada de etileno a 2020 se
basará en etano/propano
24
34
32
30
28
26
0
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Millones de toneladas
Nafta
Mixto
Etano
Etano/Propano
Metanol
Otros
Total
32
(100%)
2
(6%)
10
(31%)
9
(28%)
4
(14%)
6
(19%)
1
(2%)
África
0
Europa central
y del este
3
Sudamérica
2
Norte América
9
Oriente Medio
6
Asia
12
Nueva capacidad garantizada por materia prima (2016-2020) Crecimiento
en % de la
base instalada
15-20
Base
instalada
2015
3.1
2.5
19.9
27.4
66.3
44.4
20%
254%
22%
33%
15%
4%
Fuente: Nexant, BCG analysis
163.6 20%
13.5
(42%)
FGNF quimica y energia 25May16 vf.pptx 13
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Hay 48 cuencas estructurales con shale gas y oil, en 38 países
Fuente: Energy Information Administration de EE.UU.
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Existen importantes recursos de shale gas fuera de
Norteamérica
802 Tcf
1.115 Tcf
12 – 271
Tcf 128 Tcf
545 Tcf
26 Tcf
1. De una estimación independiente 2012
2. Rusia: 287 Tcf de fuentes técnicamente recuperables (TRR) de shale gas de pozos no probados pero los recursos en los que se están centrando en la actualidad son el tight/shale oil (75
Bbl de recursos de shale oil típicamente recuperables)
Fuente: EIA junio 2013, Bloomberg, BAFA, AER, Pemex, Instituto Geológico polaco, análisis BCG
1
665 Tcf
573 Tcf
287 Tcf2
1.783
Tcf
2 3
4
437 Tcf
5 390 Tcf
7
Importadores
de gas
6
El shale gas ha sido una revolución en EE.UU. hasta la fecho, pero
la ubicación de recursos fuera de EE.UU. podría tener un impacto en
los precios y el comercio de gas mundiales
707 Tcf
9
8
FGNF quimica y energia 25May16 vf.pptx 15
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Shale gas fuera de Norteamérica - Retos existentes y plazos
potenciales de producción
Dimensión
Potencial de
Recursos
Costes
pozo
Disponibilidad
servicios
Disponibilidad de
midstream
Marco regulatorio
Entorno de precios
Facilidad para
el negocio
Apoyo
político
Aceptación
de la población
EE.UU. Argentina Polonia Ucrania China Australia S. América
Favorable Barrera
Realizado 2016 2020+ 2020+ 2018+ 2020+
RU
2019+ Plazos de prod.
comercial (100Kb/d)
Tendencia
2017-2020
FGNF quimica y energia 25May16 vf.pptx 16
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Implicaciones para la química en Europa
No se espera gran creación de capacidad por falta de competitividad
• Altos costes de materia prima
• Costes energéticos y medioambientales
• Europa es un mercado de poco crecimiento
Existe la posibilidad de que se produzcan cierres
Aspectos positivos
Los países Europeos son buenos
operadores
Actualmente crece la demanda de
productos más especializados
• Productos de mayor margen
El bajo precio del crudo juega a favor de
los players Europeos
Otros químicos (e.g. aromáticos) no
están tan amenazados por los HC no
convencionales
Caminos para mejorar la eficiencia
• Reducir costes
• Tanto a nivel operativo como a nivel de
compras
• Mejorar los ingresos
• A base de mejorar los procesos de
ventas
• Proporcionando al mercado mejores
productos
• Optimizando la operación de las
plantas y reduciendo giveaways
• Mejorar sinergias con otras plantas y
otros negocios
FGNF quimica y energia 25May16 vf.pptx 17
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Anexo
FGNF quimica y energia 25May16 vf.pptx 18
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Steam Crackers de etano – visión global
Orange, TX
680
L.Charles, LS
430
F. Saskat- chewan,AL
1.195
Joffre, Alberta
816
Joffre, Alberta
Mossmorran
830
Skikda
Basrah
132
Novi Urengoy
400
Bandar Assaluyeh
1.000
Bandar Assaluyeh
B. Assaluyeh
Shurtan
Bahía Blanca
Bahía Blanca
Shuaiba
800
Shuaiba
850
Yanbu
Rabigh
1.300
Al Jubail
800
Al Jubail
1.000
Ruwais, AD
1.500
Ruwais, AD
1.500
Ruwais, AD
600
Mesaieed
1.000
Mesaieed
500
Ras Laffan
1.300
Baytown, TX
1.000
Morelos
600
La Cangrejera
600
Coatzacoalcos
1.000
Pajaritos
182
Barranca- bermeja
100
Map Ta Phut
Map Ta Phut
1.000
Kerteh
440
Botany Bay
265
Altona
150
West Footscray
40
Joffre, Alberta
725 1.270
Canadá
EE.UU.
Méjico
Colombia
Argentina
275 490
Australia
Malasia
Tailandia
UK
Argelia
400
120 1.000 500 140
Rusia
Iraq Irán
Uzbekistán
820
TKOC
Arabia Saudí
Kuwait
Qatar
EAU
FGNF quimica y energia 25May16 vf.pptx 19
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Steam Crackers de propano/etano – visión global
Plaquemine, LA
500
Clinton, IA
477
Morris, IL
544
Port Harcourt
300
Egypt
Egypt
300
Ilam
Bandar Imam
1.100
Auraiya, UP
900
Calvert City, KY
286 460 450
EE.UU.
Malasia
Irán
Arabia Saudí
India
Egipto
Nigeria
Brasil
Venezuela
El Tablazo
386
El Tablazo
250
Río de Janeiro
520
Al Jubail
1.300
Al Jubail
Al Jubail
1.200
Al Jubail
Al Jubail
810
Al Jubail
800
Yanbu
1.300 1.200 1.000
Freeport, TX
610
La Porte, TX
1.202
Lake Charles, LA
654
Lake Charles, LA
6541
Geismar, LA
886
Kerteh
600
Thailand
460
Nagothane
400
Gandhar
435
Tailandia
1. 554kt en 2015
Optimal Olefins
Noruega
Rafnes
600
FGNF quimica y energia 25May16 vf.pptx 20
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Nueva capacidad de etileno de etano
EE.UU.
Jamnagar, Gujarat
1.600
Ras Laffan
1.200
Karabatan
850
Freeport, TX
1.500
Baytown, TX
1.500
Cedar Bayou, TX
1.500
Point Comfort, TX
1.000
Ingleside, TX
544
Lake Charles, LA
700
Ingleside Ethylene
Comienza en 2016/17
Comienza en 2017/18
Kazajistán
India Qatar
FGNF quimica y energia 25May16 vf.pptx 21
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Expectations of lower prices is incentivizing Steam
Crackers' modification to receive US ethane Deep sea export market from the U.S. is opening to monetize ethane oversupply
Agreements with Range Resources and CONSOL Energy to
supply ethane to the Rafnes (Norway) and Grangemouth (UK)
crackers
• Mariner East pipeline and Marcus Hook terminal to provide
ethane from 2015
• Evergas (Denmark) to build and operate new vessels dedicated
to transporting ethane (12kt /boat)
Borealis signed an agreement with Antero Resources to supply
30mbpd of ethane to its Stenungsund (Sweden) cracker
• Export terminal has not been announced yet
Reliance to import up to 2.1Mt/y of ethane to feed Indian SCs
(1.8 Mtpy gas&naphtha) plus a new one 1.6 Mt of ethane
• EPP to build ethane liquefaction&export facility at Morgan's Point
• Reliance commissioned Samsung to build six vessels (~45kt/vessel)
SABIC is modifying its Wilton cracker (UK) with 50 mbpd
(~1,2Mt/y) of capacity to switch it to US ethane from 2016
• Cryogenic tank construction is underway at SABIC's North Tees
site
European, Asian and Southern American crackers are being modified
to receive US ethane (Major announced agreements/ projects)
Up to ~5Mt of ethane to be
exported by deep sea by 2020
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Ethane deep sea export capacity and
export volume1, MBPD
2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014
Mariner East/ Marcus Hook (SUNOCO)
Morgan’s Point (Enterprise)
Total expected deep sea exports
Announced export volumes2
1. Assuming 80% terminal capacity utilization; 2. Incl. INEOS, Reliance, Borealis, SABIC Source: ICIS Chemical Business; Platts Commodity News; The Oil and Gas Journal; company data; BCG Analysis
Braskem is investing 380 M$Reais (~110M$US) in its complex in
Camaçari, switching its SC Naphtha to mixed feed (15% ethane/
85% naphtha) to receive US ethane (~200kt/y) (from shale gas)
• Signed a long-term agreement with Enterprise Products to
supply ethane from the second semester 2017 onwards
Ethane
(Mt/y)
~1
~2
~0.7
~1.2
~0.2
FGNF quimica y energia 25May16 vf.pptx 22
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Several European players plan to or are considering
converting crackers from heavy to lighter feedstock slate Cracker would need to be coastal and likely non-integrated to refinery for import to make sense
INEOS
Rafnes
550 kT/yr
Borealis
Stenungsund
625 kT/yr
Versalis
Brindisi
440 kT/yr
Versalis
Dunkerque
370 kT/yr
Integrated
Co-located
Non-integrated
Total
Antwerp
1,130 kT/yr1
Value of integration an important
consideration
1. Does not include 250 kT/yr announced naphtha cracker closure Source: BCG analysis, International Survey of Ethylene from Steam Crackers 2013, ICIS Chemical Business, Platts Commodity News, The Oil and Gas Journal
Light feed conversion feasible for coastal
crackers without refinery integration
Risk of
shutdown
All logical candidates have already announced interest
Three types of steam cracker
• Integrated: Physical and legal integration
enables full synergy capture
– Joint optimization
– Fixed cost synergies
– Heat and logistics savings
• Co-Located: Physical integration but legal
differences prevent full synergy capture
– Opex savings shared between parties
– Limited fixed cost savings
• Non-integrated: Merchant buyers of
feedstock without upstream integration
Integrated and co-located plants will face
operational and legal challenges when
sourcing external feeds
Non-integrated crackers most likely to
import
FGNF quimica y energia 25May16 vf.pptx 23
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Expect US NGL capacity from shale production to
grow through 2020s, creating feedstock advantage
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
KBPD
-38%
2040
2,043
2035
2,560
2030
3,090
2025
3,319
2020
2,796
2015
1,808
2005
42
2000 2010
263
12
Marcellus
Haynesville
Granite Wash
Fayetteville
Eagle Ford
Barnett
Bakken
Other Shales
Utica
Woodford
Permian
Niobrara
Mississippian Lime
Note: Other shales category includes Anadarko, Atoka, Austin Chalk, Cotton Valley, Devonian, New Albany, Powder River Basin, and smaller minimal producing shales Source: Rystad Energy UCube
FGNF quimica y energia 25May16 vf.pptx 24
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Ethane demand curve largely binary: petchem or fuel value
Two possible price setting mechanisms
Illustrative ethane demand curve
Value in use ($/ton)
Quantity
Supplied (Mt)
2015
oversupply
BTU value
(vs NG)
Naphtha Butane Propane
Ethane price
at fuel value
Fuel valu
e
Cra
cker
feed
Ble
nd v
alu
e
Cra
cker
feed
Ble
nd v
alu
e
Cra
cker
feed
Ethane price at substitution value vs
other cracker feedstock
Naphtha Butane Natural gas Propane
Source: BCG analysis
Backup
FGNF quimica y energia 25May16 vf.pptx 25
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Significant ethane oversupply will persist All medium probability projects will not be enough to flip market to short
1. Illustrative high-level estimate based on following assumptions: continuing minor GPP capacity growth, all medium-high and medium probability crackers come online;
2. Westlake Chemical, Williams, Dow Chemical, LyondellBasell, INEOS projects; 3. Assuming no heavy-to-light conversions, no shift of existing fleet, constant operating rate for all
existing fleet
Note: assuming 91% operating rate for ethylene crackers, all new projects are ethane-based
Source: ICIS; Wells Fargo; GPA; company data; EIA; BCG Analysis
1,200
3,000
2,400
1,800
0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20251
+301
Ethane supply and demand balance, KBPD
2015 2014 2013
Base (2014) ethane domestic demand3
Debottlenecking/expansion2
New cracker - Sasol
New cracker - Dow
New cracker - OxyChem/Mexichem
New cracker - Formosa
New cracker - Exxon
New cracker - CP Chemical
Exports
Medium probability crackers
Ethane supply
Maximum ethane extraction capacity
350-400 KBPD
ethane rejection
likely to persist
If all medium projects are realized, the
market will still be heavily oversupplied
FGNF quimica y energia 25May16 vf.pptx 26
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Low ethane price in US likely a cyclical phenomenon Potential for cycle to break but dependent on yet uncertain events
Source: BCG
Low US ethane price
Overbuilding of US
cracker capacity to use
available ethane
Increase in US ethane
price
Increased drilling for
natural gas
Factors that can cause
the cycle to break
Investment discipline Low success in finding
natural gas and/or low NGL
content of gas
Regulations limit drilling
activity US ethane price increases
to arbitrage propane
Fast response
Slow response
ETHANE
FGNF quimica y energia 25May16 vf.pptx 27
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US propane price was set by ethane displacement until
recent export capacity growth
Propane surplus and
ethane rejection have
moved propane to ethane
parity at steam crackers
5
0
Domestic
supply1
1. Not including imports Source: ICF International – Propane Market Outlook Update; EIA, CEH estimates based on World Petrochemicals Program, SRI Consulting, CMAI, Deutsche Bank, Wells Fargo, National Energy Board (Canada), Nexant, BCG analysis
Recent historical domestic propane demand curve
Domestic
supply 2008
Million
metric tons/year
5
0
Million
metric tons/year
Current & near-term domestic propane demand curve
Year 2012 ($/gallon)
Year 2015+ ($/gallon)
Domestic
supply1
10 40 30 20 0 50 60
10 40 30 20 0 50 60
Significant increase in
export capacity would
change price setting
mechanism
PROPANE/BUTANE
FGNF quimica y energia 25May16 vf.pptx 28
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0 4 3 2 1 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10
75
150
50
125
100
25
0
9 8 7 6 5
2020 forecasted production1 from new developments in Mbbld
Brent real oil price, USD/bbl (2015$)
Onshore
Middle East
Ultradeep Water
Tight
Liquids
Artic Onshore
RoW Offshore Shelf
On-
shore
Russia
Extra
Heavy
Oil Oil
Sands
Global production from new developments and break-even prices
by types of oil and gas projects – 2020, in $/bbl
Mid-term reinvestment economics demand ~60-70$/bbl High impact of the economics of shale/tight liquids as they depend on level of activity
1. Includes crude oil, condensates and NGLs; Note: breakeven prices are calculated considering future cash flows as of today, with a 10% discount rate; BE prices higher than150 USD/bbl are represented as being 150 USD/bbl Source: Rystad Energy UCube (21th January 2016 release)
Deepwater
BE price range considering 1Q and 3Q prod. BE price range considering 10% and 90% prod.
NAPHTHA
FGNF quimica y energia 25May16 vf.pptx 29
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Shale Gas outside North America - Main events: May-Oct 2015 Positive news in Argentina and China, some legal setbacks in UK, limited activity elsewhere
With the departure of Conoco, all large IOCs have now exited the country due to lack of exploration success
• Conoco announces its decision to terminate its operations in the country after having drilled 7 unsuccessful wells (July 2015)
• San Leon decides to scale back its activity and relinquishes 4 licenses, (July 2015)
Complete stalemate, with the exits from Shell and Chevron, ENI is the only sizeable explorer left (through its Westgasinvest JV)
• Shell has decided to also end a JV exploration agreement in Kharkhiv region on tight sandstones
• Strategic decision to grant very large exploration blocks to only 2 companies (Chevron and Shell) now poses serious questions on
future pace of exploration in the country
Government reinforces commitment to shale gas production, despite decline in gas demand growth, clear focus on Fuling play
• Fuling reserves now announced at 381Bcm, Sinopec currently produces 65Kboe/d for the play with 142 wells
• Sinopec reports high-yield shale gas well in Fuling field with successful testing of Jiaoye-8 well
• China announces $24B investment target to boost Sichuan shale play with $3.6B already invested in China’s shale gas E&P in 2009-
2014
• China Offers Private Companies Rights to Explore Six Oil -and- Gas Blocks, while ConocoPhillips halts shale gas exploration in China
• Algeria: First pilot wells completed at Ahnet by Sonatrach; support from government seems to be reducing due to local protests
• ...
Significant legal setback for Cuadrilla which might affect all explorers; but progress on the licensing front
• 14 months after the beginning of the licensing round, 27 blocks are formally offered to selected companies
• Energy and Climate change secretary announces plan to "fast track" decision making on Shale
• Significant setback for explorers as local council denies Cuadrilla's applications for fracking
Vaca Muerta production ~ 50,000beo/d with continued improvements in drilling costs; new players start to position themselves
• Shell targets 10Kboe/d of production in Vaca Muerta by end 2016, ExxonMobil joins GyP, Petrobras in new Vaca Muerta shale project
• YPF reached a gross production of 42Kboe/d in Vaca Muerta Shale by Aug 2015; cots of horizontals continues to drop
• Neuquén province signed E&P agreements on 4 concessions with YPF, PAE, and Wintershall; who committed to $1.4B for the pilots
• YPF not looking to get new acreage or new JV in short term, focusing on existing assets and waiting for October election outputs
Still no regulatory framework issued by the government despite the initial commitment to publish it in June
• The commissioning of a two-year Strategic Environment Assessment of shale impact is likely to generate even more delays
• Shell decided to pull back from its shale projects given delays in regulations and low price environment
Very limited activity since departure of largest IOCs ; Falcon is the only operator experiencing success
• Chevron, Conoco, Statoil and Petrochina in left in Q4-14 / Q1-15; Santos is scaling back its shale exploration spend
• Falcon O&G started its 9 well program E&A campaign in the Beetaloo basin- supported by Sasol and Origin- and had 2 promising
results
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Backup: Large scale changes with prohibitively high costs
make conversion of 100% naphtha crackers unlikely
Feedstock
tank1 Furnace
Qu
en
ch
tow
er
De-e
than
izer
Feedstock handling Cracking furnace Quenching Product separation
Receive and store
feedstock for use in
cracking1
Crack feedstock at high
temperature (1500-1600 deg F) in
a natural gas powered furnace
Quench and
compress cracker
output for
subsequent
liquefaction
Separate output into individual
coproduct streams through a
series of separation columns
Fuel gas
C4 stream
C5 + stream
Ethylene
Propylene
Product Separation
Columns
Compressor
Fuel oil
Methane / ethane
1. Feedstock tank optional; not required if feedstock pumped in directly into the furnace from the source Source: BCG experience
Cooling train
Refrigeration
compressors &
transfer line
exchangers
Condense cracker
stream to enable
separation in
downstream columns
• Tanks to hold ethane1
• Gas pipelines
• High pressure, low
temperature pumps
• New furnaces capable of
handling gaseous feed
– Handle different heat transfer
properties
– Prevent explosions of
gaseous feed
• Heavy duty compressors and transfer
line exchangers needed to liquefy
lighter output from cracker
• Larger de-ethanizer
• Smaller propylene splitter
• May not need pyrolysis separator
Majo
r ch
an
ges
req
uir
ed
Co
st
esti
mate
s
~$100MM1 $500MM+ $100-200MM ~$100-500MM
Additional costs for dismantling naphtha set up
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A Naphtha SC can take external ethane as feedstock and its
quantity can be maximized by changing the SC's operations
Naphtha
Feedstock
tank1
Naphtha
Furnace
Fuel gas
Ethylene
Propylene
Product Separation
Columns
Gas recycling (% of fresh feed):
~6% Ethane
~1% Propane
~5% C4s (sometimes)
1. Takes into account the subsequent yield of gas cracking (e.g. ethane out of ethane) Note: Steam Cracking yields of naphtha with medium severity and specific gravity= 0.7260, coil outlet pressure= 1.72 bar, steam/hydrocarbon ratio = 0.5 Source: BCG experience
Naphtha 500kt
Gas
Furnace
Gas recycles with ethane,
usually propane and
sometimes C4s and C5s1
Butadien
e
(optional)
There are several
operations strategies to
increase the ethane
feedstock directly into the
gas cracking unit:
• Lower the Naphtha feed
• Increase furnace
temperature
• Reduce Propane
cracking
• Reduce C4 (Butene
and Butane) cracking
Gas 50-80 kt
(10-15% of fresh feed)
New Gas
feedstock
tank New Gas tank to
take more
ethane
Naphtha Steam Cracker
A Naphtha SC already
has a furnace to process
gas (output of Naphtha
cracking after one pass
through and gas
recycling)
FGNF quimica y energia 25May16 vf.pptx 32
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Backup: Naphtha and ethane cracking yields
Severity Low Medium High
Hydrogen 1% 1% 1%
Methane 13% 15% 16%
Acetylene ~0% 1% 1%
Ethylene 26% 29% 31%
Ethane 4% 4% 3%
MAPD 1% 1% 1%
Propylene 17% 16% 14%
Propane ~0% ~0% ~0%
Butadiene 5% 5% 5%
Butenes 7% 4% 4%
Butanes 1% ~0% ~0%
C5s 5% 3% 3%
C6–C8 non-
aromatics 6% 3% 2%
Benzene 4% 6% 7%
Toluene 4% 4% 4%
Xylenes+EB 2% 2% 1%
Styrene 1% 1% 1%
C9–205 °C 2% 2% 2%
Fuel Oil 3% 5% 5%
Total 100% 100% 100%
Steam Cracking of Naphtha –
Once Through Yields1
1. (Specific gravity = 0.7260: Coil outlet pressure = 1.72 bar: Steam/Hydrocarbon ratio = 0.5) Source: Nexant, BCG Analysis
Products Naphtha
Ethylene 32%
Propylene 15%
Butane 7%
Butadiene 4%
Benzene 5%
Pygas 22%
Fuel gas 15%
Hydrogen 1%
Total 100%
Naphtha SC
Extinction Yields
Products Ethane
Ethylene 50%
Propylene 1%
Ethane 35%
Methane 6%
Hydrogen 4%
C5-200 (ex BTX) ~0%
BTX ~0%
13 BUTD ~1%
Fuel oil ~0%
Butene ~0%
Total 100%
Ethane SC
Once Through Yields
