COSMO WG4 Actvities Concentrated mainly on COSMO LEPS presentation by Andrea Montani The rest of...
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Transcript of COSMO WG4 Actvities Concentrated mainly on COSMO LEPS presentation by Andrea Montani The rest of...
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COSMO WG4 Actvities
Concentrated mainly on COSMO LEPS
presentation by Andrea Montani
The rest of the activities have been absorbed into the advanced interpretation project
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COSMO LEPS is run in time critical mode
Can be used operationally, as is done in Italy, Switzerland, Germany.
Disseminated to Hungary
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3 Probabilistic Verification of COSMO-LEPS Forecasts with Synop Stations
Andre Walser
Conclusions of verification on synop stations by André Walser
• For low precipitation threshold skill up to +126h
• Clearly lower skill for high thresholds
• High spatial variability
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Impact of the Alps on COSMO-LEPS Forecasts for the
August 2005 Flood Event
Andre Walser1) and Cathy Hohenegger2)
1)MeteoSwiss2) Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich
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5 Probabilistic Verification of COSMO-LEPS Forecasts with Synop Stations
Andre Walser
Heavy precipitation August 2005
© PLANAT, © BWG, © Luftwaffe
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6 Probabilistic Verification of COSMO-LEPS Forecasts with Synop Stations
Andre Walser
Observed precipitation
Probability precipitation > 100mm/72h
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7 Probabilistic Verification of COSMO-LEPS Forecasts with Synop Stations
Andre Walser
COSMO-LEPS vs. ECMWF EPS
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8 Probabilistic Verification of COSMO-LEPS Forecasts with Synop Stations
Andre Walser
COSMO-LEPS with and without Alps
With Alps Without Alps
Orography in the Alpine area set to 500 m if larger
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9 Probabilistic Verification of COSMO-LEPS Forecasts with Synop Stations
Andre Walser
Synoptic
With Alps Without Alps
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10 Probabilistic Verification of COSMO-LEPS Forecasts with Synop Stations
Andre Walser
COSMO-LEPS Forecast 19.8.2005
Probabilities for 72-h precipitation sum > 100 mm (20. 06 UTC – 23. 06 UTC).
With Alps Without Alps
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11 Probabilistic Verification of COSMO-LEPS Forecasts with Synop Stations
Andre Walser
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12 Probabilistic Verification of COSMO-LEPS Forecasts with Synop Stations
Andre Walser
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13 Probabilistic Verification of COSMO-LEPS Forecasts with Synop Stations
Andre Walser
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14 Probabilistic Verification of COSMO-LEPS Forecasts with Synop Stations
Andre Walser