Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion Asset and Facility Risk Management for Oil and Gas GARP...
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Transcript of Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion Asset and Facility Risk Management for Oil and Gas GARP...
Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
Asset and Facility Risk Management for Oil and Gas
GARP Luncheon, 2015-11-19by Mark Perrin, P.Eng.
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Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
Mark PerrinBiography
35 years of Engineering, Information Technology and Finance experience in upstream oil and gas
Increases value clients receive from their investments in analytics
Assists oil and gas companies to implement EPAP
Manages projects that arise fromopportunities to leverage technology
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Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
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Objectives
High-level overview of asset and facility lifecycle analysis
Benefits of adopting lifecycle analysis into – reliability engineering– maintenance management
Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
Presentation Outline
Why pay attention Impact on risk management Where is lifecycle analysis used Lifecycle analysis techniques Benefits for upstream Implementation challenges A reasonable approach Conclusions Next steps Questions
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Why Pay Attention To Lifecycle Analysis
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Why Pay Attention
Value for Risk Management– Unplanned outages impact cash flow– Missed targets undermine investor confidence
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Why Pay Attention
Assets and facilities are complex Components have a lifecycle
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Lifecycle Analysis – The Bathtub Curve
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Where is Lifecycle Analysis Used
Downstream Aviation Military Automotive
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Lifecycle Analysis Techniques
Weibull distribution is a leading method – Works for small samples– Accounts for components that have not failed
Other commonly used life distributions – Exponential – Lognormal – Normal
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Lifecycle Analysis Answers
Where is this component in its lifecycle? When can I expect it to fail? How many failures can I expect? Which component should I choose?
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Benefits for UpstreamFacility Maintenance
Trigger:– Unplanned outage to replace a component
Answer the questions: – Should I replace other major components? – What spare parts should I have?
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Benefits for UpstreamWell Maintenance
Trigger:– Service rig mobilized to repair a well in a field
Answer the questions: – Should I service adjacent wells?– What spare parts should I have?
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Benefits for UpstreamDownhole Pump Design
Trigger:– Problematic run life
Answer the question:– What is the impact on run life of speed, pump
size?
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Benefits for UpstreamPlanning And Budgeting
Trigger:– Prepare maintenance budget
Answer the question:– How much should I budget this year for well and
facility maintenance?
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Benefits for UpstreamPlanning And Budgeting
Trigger:– Prepare production forecast
Answer the question:– What is the predicted availability?
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Implementation Challenges
Inconsistent method of reporting failures by Field Staff
Inconsistent historic dataFailure description Average of Run
Down Hole Pump Failure 689
PC pump 210
Pump Change 1014
Pump Failure 552
Pump will not start 160
Seized pump 35
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Implementation Challenges Enrolling Staff
Discover the value of consistent reporting – Meet or exceed production targets– Improve run life– Reduce operating and maintenance costs
Agree on consistent reporting – Level of detail– Set of descriptions
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A Reasonable ApproachIdentify Opportunities
Operations staff know where the problem areas are
Prioritize based on impact on cash flow
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A Reasonable Approach Data Availability
What systems are collecting data How consistent is the reporting Who owns component lifecycle data
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A Reasonable Approach Data Cleanup
A great position for a summer student Who is responsible– A cross division and cross functional effort.– Who pays
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A Reasonable Approach Pilot
Pick an area where the field staff are enthusiastic
Pick a sub-set of problematic components
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A Reasonable Approach Pilot
Start with Excel-based analysis
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A Reasonable Approach Pilot
Consider more sophisticated systems– Microsoft Azure ML– Tableau or Spotfire with R– MatLab
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A Reasonable Approach Implement
Prioritize areas Roll-out area by area Include learnings from previous areas
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Conclusions
Attention to asset and facility lifecycle analysis can:– Reduce the risk of unplanned outages – Increase cash flow certainty– Improve certainty of well and facility availability – Increase the accuracy of forecasts
Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
Next Steps
Ask:– Is your company already performing lifecycle
analysis?– If not, are there problematic components?– Is there an appetite?– Do you have expertise?
Get help:– Canvass your peers for experience– Engage a suitable consultant
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Questions
Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
Asset and Facility Risk Management for Oil and Gas
Corvelle Consulting300, 400 - 5 Ave. S.W.
Calgary, Alberta T2P 0L6www.corvelle.com
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Clay Long403 710-6980
Mel Miners403 200-5544 MelMiners@
Corvelle.com
Yogi Schulz403 860-5348
Mark Perrin403 613-6987
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Corvelle Drives Concepts to CompletionCorvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
Bibliography
Gas and Oil Reliability Engineering, Modeling and Analysis, Eduardo Calixto.
Life Data Analysis Reference, ReliaSoft Corporation.
http://reliawiki.org/index.php/Life_Data_Analysis_Reference_Book
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